September 25, 2025 • 43 mins
In the last 15 years, seven teams who've had a win total of ten or more in the preseason have fallen to 1-3 straight up and none have made the playoffs. With the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens squaring off this week, should the fans of whichever team losses panic?? What about the fans of whichever team wins?? The Favorites trio is back to dive deeper into NFL Week 4. Kendra Middleton, Stuckey and Brandon Kravitz discuss trends, matchups and some best bets for the Week 4 slate. Plus, they put together a parlay currently without a name. Go vote on social now and help us out!
Check out the Action Network App and sign up for Action Pro for instant notifications from our top experts. Get $20 off with promo code POD20.
Click here to instantly tail some of the bets from today's episode with quick slips!
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
Welcome to The Favorites, presented by DraftKings. We are an
Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined by my fellow djens.
Your crew here at the Favorites, Kendra Middleton and the
Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, the one and only Stucky.
On today's show, we're gonna submit our official plays for
week four in the NFL Sides, Totals, props, parlays. Everything
(00:32):
is on the table, Like and subscribe wherever it is
that you are tuned in. I made sure to look
this up pre podcast. We are in a waxing crescent
moon right now. The moon has been the most profitable
thing about this show so far. We are changing the
name of our three leg parlay as well, the Three Musketeers.
We'll be put six feet under after today. But Kendra,
(00:55):
any moon angles before we get off and running. We
got a lot of good stuff today.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
No moon angles.
Speaker 3 (01:00):
People hate it on me so much for the moon angle.
I'm not a moon gambler, but I thought that I
love like a silly little reason to bet on something,
and that's what I took from that. It worked out
for me, no doubt. I will continue to have silly
little he he haha. Angles from here, but I love
something stupid to bet on. So here we are no moon,
no moon bets for me. But the moon Beats are
(01:21):
not dead. Do not We're not They're not in They're
not in beat jail.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
They'll be back.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
I'm so a little surprised that we don't have some
sort of and maybe we'll think of one before the
end of the episode. We've got three ideas that we
like as far as what to name our three leg parlay.
We each nominate two picks and then go around the
horn and then whittle that down one apiece is what
we've been doing.
Speaker 4 (01:42):
Only one of.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
The legs has hit so far in the two weeks
that we've done this. I think we probably should shoehorn
some sort of Moon reference because of how well that
played out last week with Jared Goff. So something to
think about. Thursday's shows loaded up. We're gonna start with
the shrimp unbelievable stat of the Week courtesy of Action
Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. Shout out to Ken
(02:06):
Kendrick's Rainbow Shrimp, Monica, Lashtrimsky, and Oj Shrimpson on the
research do date Do we have any is there any
sort of.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
I check her every hour. I just about her to
see if she'll come out and show me. What if
that thing is still saying?
Speaker 4 (02:21):
So we'll see Stucky. What about you?
Speaker 1 (02:25):
You're also you also have a pregnant wife, so there's
a lot of pregnancy on this show.
Speaker 5 (02:30):
Pregnant wife, dog golf surgery. It's rough.
Speaker 6 (02:33):
Uh the oh, my question. I always bring a question
for Thursday episodes for you. So my question is, well,
I have two questions. One, out of all the places
you've ever visited in your life, where would you go
if you had to go back to one and you
had a free, like all expenses paid trip.
Speaker 5 (02:54):
Where are you choosing, Kendre.
Speaker 3 (02:56):
I'll start with you, Havar, Croatia. Next question, the best
place I've ever been?
Speaker 5 (03:05):
Like one sentence about it.
Speaker 2 (03:06):
Yeah, okay, it was okay.
Speaker 3 (03:09):
It changed how I eat Prosudo. I can't eat Proshuto
the same way it is. The treffle Prosudo and wine.
They're so good, so cheap. The beaches are incredible, The
nightlife is awesome. They have like a private island where
you get on like you pay twenty bucks to get
on a boat and then you go in. There's a
club and they have some of the best DJs in
the world, and then you boat back when you're hammered
at the end of the night, which can get a
(03:30):
little dicey after a night of drinking, but the food's
really good.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
Havar h v Ar.
Speaker 5 (03:37):
Is that you're like Split or dun.
Speaker 3 (03:40):
So Deic is like a little it's like one of
the islands off the coast. Split is like obviously like
a little bit more north and inward.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
But you could definitely hit Dubrovnik.
Speaker 3 (03:50):
I think I took like an hour and a half
boat from Dubrevnick to Havar and you can just island
hop it's the best.
Speaker 5 (03:56):
Got it?
Speaker 6 (03:57):
Yeah, Gracias on my list to go to. I've been
fortunate enough to travel to a lot of places. My
easy answer for this is the Galopagos Islands. That's the
craziest place I've ever been to. You gotta go to
Ecuador first. I mean it is in Necdor. You gotta
go to mainline Ecuador. You gotta get like checked. You
can't bring any plastics.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
You can't bring any plastic.
Speaker 5 (04:18):
Yeah, they like.
Speaker 6 (04:19):
Search all your things. You can't bring any seeds. There's
no plastics on the island, so like it's a serious check.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
What do you do about sunscreen stuff?
Speaker 6 (04:25):
They have like special sunscreen there you can buy.
Speaker 5 (04:29):
And I you go to Keto first. Keto was pretty cool.
Speaker 6 (04:34):
We were there when like one of the we were
staying right by the presidential palace and one of the
guys running for president was assassinated and I got to
I woke up. I got an email from the State
Department there like don't go outside of voyage, dude, I'm
right by the presidential palace.
Speaker 5 (04:50):
But yeah, we went to.
Speaker 6 (04:54):
Then we went to the Galapgos Islands for ten days,
stayed in a bunch of the islands. Coolest place are
be into no animals or not, I'm afraid of you.
The coolest experience I ever had happened in the Galapagoes.
I swam with us like a group of baby sea
lions like snorkeling, and they were just playing with me.
And then the big mom came and just like looked
(05:14):
swim these big sea turtles like none of the animals
are afraid of you. Like you would just there would
be like a you'd be sitting on a bench and
like a seal would PLoP up on the bench next
to you.
Speaker 3 (05:24):
Oh my god, I jumped to the top of my
list because I'm such an animal person. I went to
Costa Rica lat An animal. Yeah, I'm the biggest.
Speaker 2 (05:33):
I mean, I am getting a spider and I am
breeding shrimp right now. So yes, yeah, it.
Speaker 6 (05:37):
Is an insane place. Even the birds, the boobies, the
blue foot of boobies. That it's it's a magical place.
So that would be my.
Speaker 1 (05:48):
I didn't even know you could visit the Galapago, so
I just thought that that was something in the Darwin
Road about.
Speaker 4 (05:54):
I didn't know that this was. This was.
Speaker 5 (05:56):
Yeah, there's a bunch of islands you can stay on.
Speaker 6 (05:58):
There's like hotels, there's some really nice and we stay
in this one hotel on one of the islands. Like
we had the top floor and it was like all
open and like these enormous birds would just you could
sit on your deck and they would fly and it
was all open on the water. Oh my god, it
was crazy. But yeah, that's like the little towns are cool.
(06:21):
So yeah, that was incredible. How about you, Brandon, what
are you choosing?
Speaker 1 (06:26):
It's it's a tough choice. I mean, my cheesy answer
for a betting podcast would be Las Vegas. I've been
there twice, two completely different experiences. I went there on
a non bachelor party. My my friend was set to
get married. I planned his bachelor party. I was the
best man. His fiance cheated on him right before the
wedding and right before we left for the trip. So
(06:48):
just imagine what that was like in Las Vegas, the
non bachelor party where you are playing by no rules
at that point with a very angry individual.
Speaker 4 (06:58):
Rightfully so.
Speaker 1 (06:59):
And then I also went on a work trip through
one of my other freelance partners, So two.
Speaker 4 (07:05):
Completely different experiences, both great.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
Still haven't gone there with my wife, so I think
that that would be like the third leg of how
to Appreciate Las Vegas, to do the shows and all
that stuff. But Jamaica I've also done twice. That's an
incredible place. So I've I met Vanessa Lache, which is
really random, at some outdoor beach party. She was drunk,
(07:31):
very funny individual. But the food there is tremendous. The
jerk chicken I could eat all day.
Speaker 6 (07:39):
Yeah, I've been Costa Rica is really cool.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
Okay, it's expensive and overrated.
Speaker 5 (07:46):
I stayed in a resort when out the Costa Rica.
Speaker 6 (07:49):
Been there are other times, but I stated like the
Secrets all inclusive resort, which was pretty cool. The but yeah,
I mean, I've been to Vegas hundred times. If you
ever go to, I guess either one of you or
anyone else out there. Every year I'll put out this
huge list most underrated food city. If you like know
the right people, even off the strip, I can give
(08:09):
you a whole list by category of food of all that,
and it changes every year or too, because it depending
on where the chef's move. But I know a couple
people in the food industry there, so.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
I'll be there for the Grand Prix.
Speaker 5 (08:20):
Hit me up, I will, yeah, I'll give you a list.
Speaker 6 (08:23):
I'll tweet that out soon, an updated list of all
all of the restaurants there. But I'll save I'll save
my next question for the next podcast.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
Okay, I got you know.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
I kind of like this tradition now because Stucky Stucky
comes out left field with these questions, So that's definitely
entering the rundown moving forward, But let's hit the shrimply
unbelievable stat of the week.
Speaker 4 (08:44):
Last fifteen years, we've had.
Speaker 1 (08:46):
Seven teams who have had a wining total of ten
or more in the preseason fall to one in three
straight up, none of which have made the playoffs. The
two teams that could end up fitting this mold would
be Kansas and Baltimore. They play each other on Sunday.
The Chiefs are minus two hundred to make the playoffs
plus one sixty to miss over at DraftKings. The Ravens
(09:09):
are minus twelve hundred to make the playoffs plus two
hundred to miss. Are you willing to take a shot
on either of those to miss the playoffs right now?
As it stands? And perhaps the better question is, is Sunday's
game and an elimination game?
Speaker 4 (09:25):
Stuck you? Where are you at on this?
Speaker 6 (09:27):
No, it's not an elimination game, but I mean teams
at start zero and three only only historically made a
playoffs one percent of the time. But if I had
a bet one of those teams to not make it, it
would be the Chiefs. I can't bet the Ravens this weekend.
They have too many injuries, like I still don't know
unlikely recards, so their offense isn't the same. Their guards
(09:48):
are struggling and then defensively without Van Noy without Matabuke,
who might be out for an extended period of time.
They got to go get someone they got a trade for,
like Dexter Lawrence or someone. Their defensive line, their whole
defensive line didn't practice yesterday, is in shambles. They can't
stop the run, they can't get pressure. It's a mess
right now in a short week. So I can't bet
them here as a two and a half point road favorite.
(10:09):
But if I had to take a shot, I would
go no on the Chiefs just because I think the
Chiefs are a worst team number one, and I know
they're probably going to get Rice and Worthy back and
have them both back, but their division is tougher, like
there's no burrow for the Bengals. I don't think the
Steelers are any good. And then the Browns, so like
(10:33):
the Ravens, have a much easier path, whereas the Chargers
already beat the Chiefs, already have a game in hand.
You know, you have the Broncos, who are a pretty
good team with a wind total that was around nine
and a half. I think the Raiders that they can
figure out their offensive line and.
Speaker 5 (10:48):
Some of the.
Speaker 6 (10:50):
Some of the coaching stuff that has gone Awrye. They're
not going to be an easy out, so that division,
I think is much tougher, which might make the path
a little more difficult for the Chiefs, who are I
think a worse team than the Ravens, but the Vodomart
to get healthy. But I don't think it's a must
win for either. But you don't want to be one
(11:11):
and three. It's not you don't have worm Ferrari, you
don't your margin for Eric. It's much thinner, like if
you have injuries, and like you can't it'll every game
then becomes even more critical.
Speaker 3 (11:20):
I actually gave out in August on my other show
casey to miss the playoffs, uh, and people called me
a dei higher and stupid, and I have all of
their comments saved, locked and loaded, ready for that to happen.
I do kind of think it's a must win of
for Kansas City just because their divisions a lot tougher.
Like Stucky said, I think Baltimore is going to be fine.
(11:42):
That division is not as strong, in my opinion, as
it has been in recent years. I do think that
they'll be okay even if they lose this game, but
it's borderline must win for the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (11:52):
Yeah, it does feel like their back is up against it.
And I originally when this line came out, and even
before or we saw the Lions run up and down
the field on the Ravens, it felt like this is
going to be a chief spot home Underdog, Patrick Mahomes,
Andy Reid, all of those things that we've said one
hundred times already. I just can't pull the trigger on it.
(12:13):
I don't trust this Chiefs team enough. The way that
they're currently composed, and and the fact that the Ravens
got run out of the building makes this feel like,
you know, almost a Ravens spot.
Speaker 4 (12:25):
I just the Ravens are a far better team.
Speaker 1 (12:28):
Derreck Henry has fumble issues, yes, but can the Chiefs
offensively keep up with Baltimore? I just don't think that
they can. So I think I'm gonna sit on the
sidelines for that game, and.
Speaker 6 (12:39):
It's okay to pass. You're going to get the best
effort of both both staffs. Both like it's I do
think it's an elimination for the one seed. Both teams
are already behind the eight ball, especially with the Ravens
who already lost to the Bills, who have an easy schedule,
easy division, but either one of these teams starts one
and three, you can pretty much kiss home field advantage
(13:00):
through out the playoffs goodbye, which is obviously ubercritical in
the AFC.
Speaker 2 (13:03):
I'm all over the Ravens this week.
Speaker 4 (13:05):
So you're all in on Baltimore?
Speaker 3 (13:07):
Yeah, I thinks for you, Yeah, I think this is
Baltimore spot. We talked about it the other day. I
figured you guys would be all in on once again
the Patrick Mahomes dog at home angle.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
But I think that this is a great spot for Baltimore.
Speaker 3 (13:19):
And do I want to play in Kansas City against
Patrick Mahomes when he really needs win, No, absolutely not.
But the Baltimore offense, I don't see Dereck Henry fumbling
this week. Their offense is lights out. Obviously their defense
can make some improvements. But the thing is is that
the Chiefs, they're not healthy. They don't have the weapons
to keep up with them right now. I get the
home field advantage thing, the Patrick Mahomes angle, all of it,
(13:40):
but Baltimore is the best team in the league right
now in my opinion. When everybody plays to their strengths,
plays to what they're capable of, and I just don't
see them coming off of the schedule that they've had
and losing this game.
Speaker 1 (13:54):
Where are we at on Metabouque because that was huge
on Monday Night. I don't think that the Chiefs are
good enough running the football, but Checko has been terrible,
Kareem Hunt's been bad. I don't think they're good enough
to take advantage of that absence, but it would still
be big because if the Chiefs can run, then I
would feel a whole lot better about backing them. I'm
(14:14):
gonna lay off of the game. But where are we
at in terms of the middle of that defense? Stuckey,
We don't.
Speaker 6 (14:19):
The whole d line is hurt so and we don't
know the ominous updates from Harbo who said he's out
this week. He doesn't know, so people are People in
Baltimore are thinking that it could be a long term thing,
so that might have to be addressed with a signing
or a trade.
Speaker 5 (14:34):
So we'll see TVD.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
Update on the quarterbacks. Some of the real line movers
out there. Jackson Dart is going to get the start
ahead of Russell Wilson.
Speaker 4 (14:42):
In New York.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
They take on the undefeated Chargers on Sunday. I want
to bet the Giants here. I'll save my reasoning for
the back end of the episode, because they're one that
I'm going to pitch to you guys. The most heavily
bet games this week so far. Of course, one of
the them is going to be this one. I think
anytime the Giants are involved, that's going to be the case.
(15:04):
But John Harball seems to be getting a lot of
action one of the most heavily big games Chargers, Giants.
Everybody seems to be in on Harball. Any hesitation backing
the rook here for you, Kendra.
Speaker 3 (15:18):
It almost got to the window on this game just
because of Harbaugh against rookie quarterbacks. But with that combined
with I think that the locker room really is going
to rally behind Jackson. I think that the Giants defense
has played really well in the last couple of weeks.
I think that that's the saving grace of that team.
Russ really really screwed them over last week. It seems
(15:39):
like they were getting stops getting off the field that
whole bit, giving them opportunities to go ahead. I think
that this rallies that team a little bit. Numbers two big,
don't love the harball against rookie quarterback angle so close
to getting there for me. If this line moved a
little bit more, potentially, I just I don't think I
can touch it. I was telling Gifford before we got.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
On the show.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
The spreads this week are just way, way, way too huge.
Not my favorite betting week. This everything feels yucky, way
too big.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
I'm not having a good time.
Speaker 1 (16:09):
We've seen a lot of line moves as well. One
of the things to monitor with that Giants game is
Malik Neighbors did not practice. I don't know how serious
that issue is, but if he doesn't play, that would
be huge. Andrew Thomas has been in and out of
the lineup, he was limited, and the Giants still have
kicker issues as well, So there are reasons to be
concerned outside of the Giants just not being overall a
good football team. But it does seem like if you
(16:31):
end up on the Chargers, just know public Joe over
here if you do that, because the public's going to
be all over the La Chargers. Carson Wentz undefeated overseas,
He's won to oh. He takes on Aaron Rodgers, who
has never won a game across the pond zero and
two for him.
Speaker 4 (16:47):
Are we sitting this one out? This has been all
Vikings money so far. Stucky.
Speaker 6 (16:52):
Yeah, it regards to the Giants, I highlight the Giants.
I'm waiting on the neighbors news. Thomas is just resting.
I think he'll be a full go. He looked great
in the first half. He's just on a snap count.
The Charters have three offensive linemen or DMPs yesterday in
practice that could potentially ruin the game for them.
Speaker 5 (17:08):
But I'm waiting.
Speaker 6 (17:09):
It's at six and a half. I'm going to see
if a seven pops want monitor the injury reports, watch
the market, But I think I will be on the Giants.
Winless teams as dogs in this range of historically performed
really well. Now, a lot of variants in this game
because we don't know we're gonna get from Dark, but
it's gonna be better than Russ and they're gonna have
at least had a kicker. They signed young, could all
have a kicker that's healthy. They didn't have a kicker
against the Chiefs cost them multiple scores. So yeah, I
(17:32):
think the uncertainty with Dark too, like the Charters don't
know what they're gonna get like how much we're kind
of read options and what's everything going to look like?
So that could work in the giants favor. So yeah,
with the Chargers offensive line injuries, they might not be
able to block New York and they really crumbled their
offense last week after those guys went out against Denver,
and the Giants have a similar front. In regards to
the Vikings, I did play the Vikings. I think here, Look,
(17:57):
the Vikings are much healthier. They should get their offensive
line except for Jackson at guard back healthy. They're gonna
get Addison back Wentz I think is an upgrade over
McCarthy as I alluded to last week. And then defensively,
they're fairly healthy. The Steelers are not dealing with a
lot of injuries. The Steelers should be owen three, like really,
they should be owing three, and this line would be
up over a field goal. Here's here's how I think
(18:19):
it plays out. Steelers have a very predictable single high defense,
like they're running that like sixty sixty five seventy percent
of the time. That's not what you don't want to
have a predictible offense when you're going up against O'Connell
and those weapons and injuries on your defense. So and
I think they'll be able to run the ball too.
So I think the Bikers is going to move the ball.
The Steelers can't run it, they can't protect, and they're
(18:42):
going up against Brian Flores. They're going to be in
known passing situations. And Aaron Rodger has been the worst
quarterback in the league against pressure this season. I think
he's six of twenty two with three interceptions. It's been
horrendous and it's not like there's no recourse you can't move,
So I don't know what they're going to do. I
think Rogers get suffocated under the pressure. Vikings, even with Wentz,
(19:04):
were able to move the ball. I'll take the Vikings
it under a field goal.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
I kind of like the Steelers here.
Speaker 3 (19:10):
No money from me yet, but I was really thinking
about it this morning. I like the mic I like
the Tomlin as a dog situation.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
I always like that angle.
Speaker 3 (19:20):
But my other thing is that Carson Wentz will fumble
the ball if they have any opportunity to recover a
fumble from him. I think that that bodes well for
the Steelers. But I did learn something interesting this morning.
I guess you remember, guys, how I was talking about
my angle that whatever team gets there first is who
I will back. I learned today that there's a new
rule in twenty twenty five with the NFL where both
teams have to arrive on the same day for games overseas.
Speaker 5 (19:43):
Interesting, I know.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
I hate that. I hate that so much.
Speaker 3 (19:47):
Like there's no like when they go West coast to
East coast, there's no day that you have to get there.
I hate that so much because I heard that the
Steelers wanted to go early and the Vikings wanted to
stay with and go Thursday, and they settled both on
going Thursday.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
Maybe this is why they've realized that there's some competitive
advantage to it, so the NFL has to squash that out.
Speaker 3 (20:11):
Hey but yeah, but like that's like the entirety of
the NFL is having some sort of competitive advantage when
you can get it. What's preventing the Vikings from leaving
earlier than the Stealers Absolutely nothing.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
Absolutely nothing.
Speaker 1 (20:24):
By the way, Jordan Addison is back this week. He's
off suspension for the Minnesota Vikings, so they get a
little more firepower on offense.
Speaker 4 (20:31):
I'll be Vikings or pass.
Speaker 1 (20:32):
For me the Unknowns this week, Jayden Daniels says that
he feels fine, but he still needs to be cleared
by team doctors.
Speaker 4 (20:38):
He's dealing with that knee sprain.
Speaker 1 (20:39):
Brock Purty still limited in practice, Mac Jones is limited. Also,
if I end up, I'm still sitting on this forty
nine Ers minus three and a half with my plant
the flag bet from Tuesday's episode. If I get Adrian Martinez,
I am going to throw up. So hopefully that does
not happen. So it's still turf to a variant situation
for Party. Hopefully he plays.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
And then just a Fortynineers podcast yesterday and they think
that Rock Party will play all right.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
Like to hear that the It's interesting with that Commander's
Falcons game, Stucky, you were when we were on Sunday's
recap show. I was, I was, I was throwing the
falcons in bet jail. You said, listen, this is the
NFL might have to just back the Falcons. They were
plus three on Sunday night. They are plus one and
(21:29):
a half. Now we've seen some of the most significant
line moves this week have been in that game. In particular,
did you grab the three early, you feel good with
where you're at, and even even still, we don't know
what's going on with Jayden Daniels, but the line would
dictate that it looks like he's not gonna play.
Speaker 6 (21:47):
No, I mean, this is what I would make it
with Daniels. That's a plus three is a horrible line
in my opinion. It was just an overreaction to what
we just saw with the Falcons. And it's not like
the Commanders have been great. Uh Like they got a
bunch of special teams plays last week, they were dominated
by the Packers and they beat Russell Wilson in Week one.
I think this team is overrated coming into the year
due for some massive aggression on laid downs. So yeah,
(22:09):
I grabbed the three first bet I made this week.
Feel good about it. I'd still play the Falcons at
plus one and a half. There are and there are
other injuries too. With the Commanders. You got McLaurin, They
have d backs that are hurt. They have other wide
receivers that.
Speaker 2 (22:25):
Are Clauren's getting a second evaluation.
Speaker 6 (22:28):
Yeah, I assume. I assume he's going to be out.
So I love, love, love love the Falcons here. This
is also fits a Let me pull up my sheet here,
this fits like three different things that I love. Falcons
(22:50):
off a shutout loss, Dogs off a shutout loss forty six,
twenty nine and three against the spread sixty one percent,
Dogs off a thirty plus point loss one fifteen, seventy
seven and eight against the spread sixty percent. You're talking
about big samplesizes over twenty five years sixty plus percent.
Why is that nobody look like what you guys were
saying on Sunday. You wanted to put him in bet jail.
You didn't want to bet them. Nobody wants to bet
(23:11):
the team that they just saw get shut out or
lose by thirty. But it's the NFL teams are never
as bad or as good as they look. The other
teams that fit those thirty plus point losses the Bengals,
who I did bet on Monday night at over at
seven and a half, and the Saints, who I probably
will bet at fifteen and a half. I think it's
just too many. The Saints were actually not that bad
(23:32):
on a down the down basis. They were just killed
by special teams. But yeah, with all the injuries down
the commanders across the board against the Falcons, who I
like their defensive improvements. I expect Penis to bounce back.
I know he was awful last week, but I like Atlanta.
I mean, Penix was good enough in Minnesota against that
defense to get the win, and they should be able
(23:54):
to run on Washington. And even if Daniels plays, I
doubt it's going to be one hundred percent. He's not
going to be as effective with his legs. So yeah,
give me Atlanta at home all day.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
I mean, this is just this is just one of
those that you're probably right, and yet when you watch
these teams play, and the Commanders have looked pretty buttoned
up so far this season outside of what the Packers
were able to do to them defensively, but this Falcons
team looks like a wreck.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
You're crazy, for real, so crazy the week before the
week book.
Speaker 5 (24:28):
They should have beat the Bucks in Week one and then.
Speaker 6 (24:30):
Okay, they want at Minnesota, right, Nay McCarthy was a disaster.
Speaker 1 (24:39):
I mean, people in Minnesota are saying, hey, maybe Carson
went to give their defense.
Speaker 6 (24:42):
Minnesota's defense wasn't isn't like you you're just going off
of You're going off of one single data point, Like
if we went. That's the same thing of why no
one wanted to bet the Dolphins last week except me
and a couple of others, Like, just because the Dolphins
look so.
Speaker 2 (24:58):
Bad, your Dolphins play encouraged you in that. Don't don't
love me.
Speaker 5 (25:02):
You know, I'm saying how people overreact all this.
Speaker 6 (25:04):
I'm not saying every single person, but I mean, if
you just went based on week, I mean, this happens
every year in weeks three and four. But everyone known
wanted a bet the Browns last week because they lost
by twenty five to the Ravens. But if you really
watch that game, they weren't that bad. It was like
it was really just fluky stuff.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
I think you're right, I just it's so I can't
get there. I think you're right, I just I can't
do it.
Speaker 4 (25:28):
Absolutely who wanted.
Speaker 5 (25:29):
About Everyone was betting the Cowboys like they knew the
final score. Last week, the Bears.
Speaker 4 (25:34):
I bet the Bears. Lest I know.
Speaker 5 (25:35):
I'm just giving you examples of all this.
Speaker 6 (25:37):
The Bears have looked unbettable, like you couldn't play. The
Falcons looked like that last week too, But it's one
week in the NFL like that.
Speaker 5 (25:45):
That's that's just how it works in this game.
Speaker 1 (25:47):
But it works both ways because some things you don't
want to overreact to and some things you should react
to a good example of that would be to this point,
the Indianapolis Colts. It just felt like, Okay, after we
one they blow out the Dolphins, Well, what does that
really mean? Well, they're sitting at three and oh against
the spread now, So if you had properly reacted to that,
(26:07):
you'd be cashing in on Indianapolis. I think sometimes with
the limited sample size, you have to pick and choose
what are you going to react to and what are
you not going to react to? And the Falcons are
one of those. The way that they have looked, I
think I'm willing to react to the point where I'm
just not willing to bet them.
Speaker 4 (26:29):
I have a solution, That's where That's where I'm at
with that.
Speaker 2 (26:32):
I have a solution.
Speaker 3 (26:34):
If stuck he wins this bet this week, you have
to bet the Falcons next week?
Speaker 2 (26:41):
Who do they play?
Speaker 4 (26:42):
They're in jail?
Speaker 2 (26:43):
Are they are they on the Falcons on the by
next week?
Speaker 5 (26:47):
Do they have an early buye see that?
Speaker 3 (26:52):
I think Week six you have to bet the Falcons
no matter what if he wins this, they're not, they're
in bet jail. But if not, they're in bet jail
home against the Bills.
Speaker 5 (27:03):
Yes, off the mine. That's a good shot, that's a
good spot too.
Speaker 1 (27:06):
All Right, I'll say this, I'll go I'll go all
in with this. And I still need to buy the
shirt after losing the Dolphins bet head to head with Stuggy.
But if the Falcons cover the spread, they don't even
need to win.
Speaker 4 (27:18):
But we're talking about a thin margin here.
Speaker 1 (27:20):
If they just cover the spread, I will I will
place a half unit bet on the Atlanta Falcons money
line against the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 4 (27:29):
Yes, this is the solution.
Speaker 5 (27:31):
And by the way, you mentioned the Colts.
Speaker 6 (27:33):
Yes, there's always one or two exceptions to the rule
where a team is gonna be significantly better and they're
gonna outperform the market. But for the most part, in general,
in weeks three, four, or five, you're better off, not
a reacting just as a blanket statement, because are you
gonna be able to pick the right ones? If you are,
(27:53):
you can make millions of dollars. But I think in general,
just this is an overarching theme. When you're better in
the NFL, don't overreact to one week. And that's why
these teams who lose by thirty plus have hit on
the close sixty one percent against the spread over a
thirty year period because no one wants to bet them.
Lines usually inflated the next week. So and it's not
(28:17):
always some you don't want to bet these, bet all
of them blindly. But in this case, I'm on the Falcons,
especially when you throw in the commander's injuries.
Speaker 2 (28:26):
I like you.
Speaker 1 (28:27):
Like you said, I think if you if you're gonna
blanket it and just say okay, in general, we're not
going to overreact, then you almost have you put yourself
in a position where you have to bet all of
those teams in order to hit the percentages. So you
have to be on the Falcons, the Saints, and the Bengals.
Speaker 4 (28:48):
I just I am well then, I mean.
Speaker 6 (28:51):
I just I sometimes if they depending on the matchups,
depending on what I may I project the number as well.
Speaker 5 (28:56):
There's other things that go into it. But I will
be on all three this uh Wolf this weekend.
Speaker 4 (29:04):
I respect that.
Speaker 1 (29:05):
Like if you're gonna go if you're gonna go all
in exactly, if you're gonna go all in with the
let's not overreact. Then you have to blanket it. You
gotta you gotta cover the board with the teams that
we would overreact to. And then in that sense, the
percentages will work in your favor.
Speaker 4 (29:19):
I'm not willing I guarantee too.
Speaker 6 (29:21):
They could easily go on three again. It's it's it's
small sample sizes. But that's that's kind of my philosophy.
Speaker 1 (29:26):
Uh.
Speaker 5 (29:27):
When bet in the NFL. So I'm now when we
get to this parlay, I don't even know when you
guys are gonna choose. Uh?
Speaker 2 (29:33):
Are we a month into this season? I'm freaking out.
Speaker 4 (29:36):
I can't believe next week is week five.
Speaker 1 (29:38):
That is very strange, But it is time for the
artist formerly known as the Three Musketeers parlay took a
couple of l's from the and the overlords in action
have said that the Three Musketeers have to go six
feet under. So what are we calling this thing? We
have three options right now. We'll allow some right in
candidates for the listeners out there, this is your show.
Speaker 4 (29:57):
At the end of the day.
Speaker 1 (29:58):
Two kings and a Queen is one option, cash or
trash or the trifecta ticket for the three leg parlay
do you have early votes.
Speaker 4 (30:08):
By the way, guys, I like cash or trash.
Speaker 5 (30:12):
Two Kings and a Queen would be my vote for now,
but I'm gonna think on it.
Speaker 4 (30:17):
I'll sit this out.
Speaker 1 (30:18):
I'm gonna let the listeners decide what we end up with.
So this is where we nominate two plays each see
if we can find some general consensus on the board
and eventually land on our team built parlay. I'll get
us started since I took the I had the lone
dub last week with the Chicago Bears, a team that
I did not have in bet jail. I'm gonna tee
(30:40):
up the Colts Rams over forty nine and a half
or the Giants plus six and a half. So the
reasoning for the over for me is one thing I
can trust on both sides of these teams. I think
the Colts might be a fraud, but I don't really
want to bet against them. And I also think the
Rams could be mentally broken after the way that they
(31:02):
they just melted down down the stretch up nineteen against
the Philadelphia Eagles. So what can I trust in this game?
It's the offenses. Pokinaku has been the best wide receiver
in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor has been the best running
back in the NFL.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
In THEA just kiss Amen ra Well.
Speaker 1 (31:16):
I mean, statistically, Puka's been the guy. He is the
most yards in the league. But really this comes down
to the Colts defense. I think if the Colts are fraudulent,
Danny Dimes is efficient, Jonathan Taylor is a good back,
they have a good offensive line. I don't think any
of that is fraudy. But the Colts rank dead last
in the NFL. It's stopping teams from converting first downs.
(31:38):
They also have zero stops in the red zone. That's
not gonna bode well on the road against the Sean
McVay let offense. So I think a lot of points
are gonna be scored in this game. I go over
forty nine.
Speaker 4 (31:47):
And a half.
Speaker 2 (31:50):
I'm probably gonna go the over, I like.
Speaker 3 (31:53):
I think I like that better even though I threw
an option out in this game. I agree with you
about the points scoring, and I just I can't.
Speaker 2 (32:04):
I can't get on the Giants. I can't get on
the Giants. I can't do it. I need they might
be in bet yill for me.
Speaker 1 (32:09):
See this is where I like a good gross play too, Stucky,
I'm gonna go with the Giants.
Speaker 4 (32:13):
Plus six and a half is my other one.
Speaker 1 (32:15):
Rookie making his first start in the NFL against a
Jim Harball not been profitable Jim Harball four to zero
against the spread and games where he's going up against
the rookie quarterback since joining the Chargers. Thank you Evan
Abrams for that one. But betting the Chargers just feels
way too easy here. Three to zero against the spread.
They don't have the travel advantage ten am body clock
(32:36):
game for them, and I think day Bole's smart enough
to know let's dial back the offense. Let's run it
with scataboo, Let's get easy first downs with Jackson Dart
and his legs, and perhaps even pull an upset against
the team that has performed over expectation three weeks in
a row in the LA Chargers. So those are the
two options, Stucky, where's your where's your vote?
Speaker 5 (32:59):
Yeah, I'm gonna go.
Speaker 6 (33:01):
I still can't figure out the Colts, Like they're the
one team that I'm like, all right, hit pause on.
But the Colts aren't fast, They're slow. The Rams are
so McVeigh so conservative at times, and the Rams have
this hidden advantage with their kickoffs. They're like pinning teams
down that they're starting within like the at the fifteen
yard line. They're doing these like knuckleball line drives. The
(33:23):
Eagles could not figure it out by starting field position
like the worst in the league is the forty nine
ers teams are starting. Of course, the forty nine special
team is a joke. Teams are starting at like the
thirty four yard line on average. The team against the
Rams teams are starting at like the twenty the fourteen
yard difference, so longer fields.
Speaker 5 (33:42):
Rams.
Speaker 6 (33:43):
So I can't get there because I still have a
good feal on the Colts, although Kenny Moore's out could
be a big loss for the Colts defense.
Speaker 5 (33:49):
So I'm going to go with the Giants.
Speaker 6 (33:52):
Because I'm going to be betting them myself, and I
think that the offensive line injuries for the Chargers are major.
I remember they already lost their right tackle for Sean
Slater or they're left tackle, and then all had to
move over before the year, and it was a disaster
last week and three of those guys didn't practice.
Speaker 5 (34:07):
So I'm gonna go with the Giants. So we need our.
Speaker 3 (34:12):
Jesus Christ didn't get raptureds to tie.
Speaker 1 (34:16):
Break, mister Evan, who you got Colts Rams over giants
plus six and a half.
Speaker 7 (34:24):
I'll take the giants. And I've been waiting for seven,
So there's the reason I haven't gotten there.
Speaker 5 (34:28):
And I figured saying, that's what I'm waiting for you
to come in.
Speaker 7 (34:31):
But I think I think the Rams and Giants are
the right sides. I just think it depends on the number.
Speaker 3 (34:38):
I feel like that episode of Peppa Pig where his
friend calls him and he's like, can you whistle? And
he finds out he can't whistle and he just hangs
up the phone.
Speaker 4 (34:47):
Are we supposed to remember episodes of Peppa Pig.
Speaker 5 (34:50):
I've never heard of that.
Speaker 2 (34:52):
Oh my god, you better get rid of you're about
to be a dad. Papa Pig is still a thing?
Speaker 5 (34:57):
Is it a cartoon?
Speaker 2 (34:58):
Yeah? It's like a really really teeny like tiny kids shell.
Speaker 4 (35:02):
It's for like five year olds.
Speaker 3 (35:03):
Yeah, it's still you will be I I guarantee in
three years you will be well rehearsed in Papa Peg.
Speaker 5 (35:10):
Is it like songs and stuff?
Speaker 3 (35:11):
Is that it's just like a little kids show about
like English, Like they're British pigs and it's it's kind
of cute.
Speaker 4 (35:17):
I like it somehow I've avoided Pepa Pig.
Speaker 5 (35:19):
What was your favorite show growing up as a little kid.
Speaker 1 (35:23):
The Cartoon Network was so popular when I was little,
Johnny Bravo, Zooms, the Scooby Doo was a.
Speaker 6 (35:28):
Big Struggrats was probably mine when I was really young.
Speaker 5 (35:33):
Are you too old for Prougrats, Kendra?
Speaker 2 (35:35):
I'm too young for Yeah?
Speaker 5 (35:37):
I too young?
Speaker 2 (35:38):
Yeah, rugrats are like on their way out, and I.
Speaker 6 (35:42):
Was all right, So I'll give my two are the
falcons who already gave, and I'll also give what are
my other options?
Speaker 5 (35:52):
Here? I'll tell you what I'm gonna play or played?
I agree with you.
Speaker 2 (35:55):
Put the jags in the notes.
Speaker 5 (35:56):
Yeah, we're gonna get through the jags. Uh.
Speaker 4 (36:00):
Sulky and I are in. We are.
Speaker 1 (36:05):
We are like two rams butting heads right now.
Speaker 3 (36:10):
No, this is genuinely when you're a little kid and
your parents are arguing in the kitchen and you're just
sitting there trying to eat your mac and cheese and
peace and you're.
Speaker 2 (36:16):
Not supposed to hear them fighting. This is literally what
I feel like right now. My parents are fighting in
the kitchen.
Speaker 5 (36:23):
You don't like these, I'll give three options. I already
mentioned the Falcons. I won't make you. I won't make you,
guys consider the Saints.
Speaker 4 (36:31):
I can consider the Saints, and.
Speaker 5 (36:34):
People bet the Saints Falcons. Let's see the other two
I'll put out throw out. There are the Jags, the
forty nine ers.
Speaker 6 (36:47):
Injuries are devastating, and even if pretty plays, I don't
think it's gonna be fully healthy. I don't know if
it's gona be able to drive. And they have the
Rams on Thursday night, so and they're already three and oh,
so they might just be cautious with some of their injuries. Uh,
there's injuries at wide receiver, on defense, the offensive line,
both quarterbacks are hurt, and with a divisional game on Thursday,
(37:08):
they might go super considerable. I like what I've seen
from from the Jags, and they're much better shape health wise.
They just need to stop dropping balls. But there's so
much better coached takes, their offensive scheme under Liam Cohen,
their defensive structure, and what the coverages they're running on
the back end instead of just running man with personnelity,
you don't have to run man like they did.
Speaker 5 (37:28):
All last year.
Speaker 6 (37:28):
So Jags at over a field goal with all the
San Fran injury uncertainty, and then I'll throw out the Pats.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
It's five and a half though, that's crazy.
Speaker 6 (37:37):
Pats minus five and a half. I don't, I don't.
The Panthers not gonna be able to move the ball,
like and Christian Zalas should be back. That's and the
Pats moving the ball up and down the field. They
should have won last week. Panthers, by the way, off
of a shutout win. Dogs off a shutout win historically
thirty one percent against the spread. Like, think about your
(37:58):
reaction just now, who wants to you take? The Panthers
are getting five and out, they just want thirty nothing. Well,
historically Dogs after a shutout win thirty thirty one and
a half percent, So I'll throw them out. They're gonna
move the ball on this Panthers defense, and I think
the Panthers are They're going to lose the line of scrimmage.
Speaker 2 (38:15):
Mac Millan also hurt. Yeah, Patriots, I'm taking the Falcons.
Speaker 5 (38:21):
Jags and Falcons Falcons.
Speaker 2 (38:24):
Kramitz.
Speaker 4 (38:26):
I mean you know that, just morally, I can't.
Speaker 1 (38:29):
I would rather and I'm i took a sprinkle in
the Panthers money line just in case what happened last
week was real. If that's the case, then they'll hang
with New England and at least be in it at
the end of the game. At two to one odds.
I felt like that was a bit that I had
to at least sprinkle on. The Panthers are dealing with
a load of injuries with wide receivers as well, and
they were dealing with that coming into the season.
Speaker 4 (38:49):
They might not be.
Speaker 5 (38:51):
Starters as well.
Speaker 1 (38:52):
I mean, the Panthers plus the points definitely not the
right side. I don't think the Patriots are worthy favorites
of that sort of margin, but I'm not I'm already
on the forty nine ers. I think I would say
the Patriots would be my vote. Evan, you might have
to break the time, Okay, yep.
Speaker 5 (39:10):
Ye, Patriots and Falcons.
Speaker 7 (39:15):
Is the choice between Patriots and Falcons. I thought we
were talking Jaguars.
Speaker 6 (39:18):
Well, Jaguars are in there too, and if you if
you they didn't get any votes, if you picked the Jags,
and I'd break the tie on my own.
Speaker 7 (39:24):
I love the Jags At three and a half, that
would be the I would touch Carolina at six. Aside
from that, I kind of agree with both of you.
I wouldn't touch Carolina or New England. That's a past spot.
I need to learn more about both of those teams
to make the bat. I think the Jaguars BET's great.
Speaker 5 (39:38):
All right, so especially Kendra's gonna be there.
Speaker 2 (39:41):
So I feel like you guys had like a pre
show meeting where you were like, let's fuck with Kendra
this week because she's gonna be there.
Speaker 5 (39:47):
Yeah, we have to go to the Jags, all right,
So we got Jags and Giants.
Speaker 4 (39:50):
I can do this. I can't even put this in
the app. What's my first bet this week was the
forty nine ers?
Speaker 5 (39:57):
Well, you can make up for the loser.
Speaker 2 (40:00):
Now I'm having a heart attack.
Speaker 3 (40:02):
My cat.
Speaker 4 (40:03):
My cat is so upset. She just ran over my equipment.
Speaker 3 (40:06):
My dog just jumped into snuggling my ghost pillow.
Speaker 4 (40:09):
Now, all right, so what.
Speaker 5 (40:11):
You got, Bendor? What are your choices you're bringing?
Speaker 2 (40:13):
All right?
Speaker 3 (40:14):
I am bringing the Rams to cover or the Ravens
to cover. I'm putting a gun to both of your head.
It seems like Evan already gave his opinion in this.
I think that this is probably easy for both of you.
I was just feeling he hustledly. You guys are going
the Rams, I figure, heamn, this is.
Speaker 5 (40:32):
I'm a Ravens fan. I usually have a good read
on them.
Speaker 6 (40:35):
I can't go to the Ravens with all their injuries,
so for me, yeah, I mean, I wish it was three,
and if the three I will bet it. But I
do like especially with the Kenny Moore injury, and.
Speaker 5 (40:52):
This is so good.
Speaker 6 (40:54):
Yeah, give me the Rams was great.
Speaker 1 (41:01):
The fact that I hate this parlay so much probably
means it's gonna come home, So I'll take I'll take
the Rams as my vote minus three and a half.
Speaker 3 (41:10):
This is incredible, My Rams, Jags, and Giants. I'm telling you,
guys my Sunday video for Socials after I have a
couple of beers. If they lose this game or win,
this game is going to be an absolute old timer.
Speaker 2 (41:26):
I might get beat up by a forty nine Ers fan.
Speaker 5 (41:30):
I can't wait.
Speaker 6 (41:31):
I can't wait to watch those Yeah, be careful the
forty nine Ers fans can be I.
Speaker 3 (41:35):
Know a forty nine Ers fan pulled my hair in
Jacksonville at the game last time.
Speaker 2 (41:39):
They played. Literally a grown ass man pulled my hair.
Speaker 6 (41:42):
At least it's not like a dog. It's the jag,
so it's at least it's not like a Dodgers Giants gamer.
By the way, we didn't mention even the luck the
luck the luck matchup of the week. Check out Nikiffin's
luck rankings on the action of our gap the two
luckiest teams. I'm in the luck rankings. I'm the unluckiest one.
The two lucky teams in the league by far are
playing each other in the Eagles and the Bucks. And
(42:05):
I'm not just saying that it's a formula. They've been
extremely lucky every single week, and I faded them five
times already. Of course, the two luckiest teams. So and
I'm one and four and I almost run on the
game if they don't block it. The Jets don't block
that field goal, So those are the two luckiest teams.
(42:27):
A lot of injuries to monitor for the Bucks. I
got nothing there, but I just wanted to mention the
luck crankings. Make sure you check them out.
Speaker 1 (42:32):
Yeah, for sure, it's an invaluable resource. Chris Godwin might
be back for Tampa Bay. They need that because Mike
Evans is.
Speaker 4 (42:39):
Out Tristan.
Speaker 1 (42:43):
Yeah, and and Baker Mayfield, by the way, dealing with
the right bicep injury. That's us throwing arm. That's that
is definitely something to monitor. I don't think you should
touch that game until we get more information on Sunday.
Speaker 4 (42:56):
All right, there we go. It's locked in.
Speaker 1 (42:57):
We get the Rams minus three and a half, we
get the Eggs plus three and a half, we get
the Giants plus six and a half as.
Speaker 4 (43:04):
Our newly named parlay.
Speaker 1 (43:06):
Keep it locked on all of the Action Network social
channels and we'll get your vote on what we.
Speaker 4 (43:10):
Call this thing moving forward.
Speaker 1 (43:12):
That's gonna do it for today's episode special thanks to
the producers Gifford Gold and David Paine.
Speaker 4 (43:16):
The Favorites War turn no show on Sunday night.
Speaker 1 (43:19):
We'll be back on Tuesday afternoon right here on the
Action Network YouTube page when we talk NFL Week five, Kendra,
have fun in San Francisco, Stucky, good luck as we
go ahead to head this week. Thanks for tuning in.
We'll see you next time here on the Favorites Podcast.
It's Cassie's tickets.
Speaker 2 (43:45):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Welcome to The Favorites, presented by DraftKings. We are an
Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined by my fellow djens.
Your crew here at the Favorites, Kendra Middleton and the
Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, the one and only Stucky.
On today's show, we're gonna submit our official plays for
week four in the NFL Sides, Totals, props, parlays. Everything
(00:32):
is on the table, Like and subscribe wherever it is
that you are tuned in. I made sure to look
this up pre podcast. We are in a waxing crescent
moon right now. The moon has been the most profitable
thing about this show so far. We are changing the
name of our three leg parlay as well, the Three Musketeers.
We'll be put six feet under after today. But Kendra,
(00:55):
any moon angles before we get off and running. We
got a lot of good stuff today.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
No moon angles.
Speaker 3 (01:00):
People hate it on me so much for the moon angle.
I'm not a moon gambler, but I thought that I
love like a silly little reason to bet on something,
and that's what I took from that. It worked out
for me, no doubt. I will continue to have silly
little he he haha. Angles from here, but I love
something stupid to bet on. So here we are no moon,
no moon bets for me. But the moon Beats are
(01:21):
not dead. Do not We're not They're not in They're
not in beat jail.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
They'll be back.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
I'm so a little surprised that we don't have some
sort of and maybe we'll think of one before the
end of the episode. We've got three ideas that we
like as far as what to name our three leg parlay.
We each nominate two picks and then go around the
horn and then whittle that down one apiece is what
we've been doing.
Speaker 4 (01:42):
Only one of.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
The legs has hit so far in the two weeks
that we've done this. I think we probably should shoehorn
some sort of Moon reference because of how well that
played out last week with Jared Goff. So something to
think about. Thursday's shows loaded up. We're gonna start with
the shrimp unbelievable stat of the Week courtesy of Action
Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. Shout out to Ken
(02:06):
Kendrick's Rainbow Shrimp, Monica, Lashtrimsky, and Oj Shrimpson on the
research do date Do we have any is there any
sort of.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
I check her every hour. I just about her to
see if she'll come out and show me. What if
that thing is still saying?
Speaker 4 (02:21):
So we'll see Stucky. What about you?
Speaker 1 (02:25):
You're also you also have a pregnant wife, so there's
a lot of pregnancy on this show.
Speaker 5 (02:30):
Pregnant wife, dog golf surgery. It's rough.
Speaker 6 (02:33):
Uh the oh, my question. I always bring a question
for Thursday episodes for you. So my question is, well,
I have two questions. One, out of all the places
you've ever visited in your life, where would you go
if you had to go back to one and you
had a free, like all expenses paid trip.
Speaker 5 (02:54):
Where are you choosing, Kendre.
Speaker 3 (02:56):
I'll start with you, Havar, Croatia. Next question, the best
place I've ever been?
Speaker 5 (03:05):
Like one sentence about it.
Speaker 2 (03:06):
Yeah, okay, it was okay.
Speaker 3 (03:09):
It changed how I eat Prosudo. I can't eat Proshuto
the same way it is. The treffle Prosudo and wine.
They're so good, so cheap. The beaches are incredible, The
nightlife is awesome. They have like a private island where
you get on like you pay twenty bucks to get
on a boat and then you go in. There's a
club and they have some of the best DJs in
the world, and then you boat back when you're hammered
at the end of the night, which can get a
(03:30):
little dicey after a night of drinking, but the food's
really good.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
Havar h v Ar.
Speaker 5 (03:37):
Is that you're like Split or dun.
Speaker 3 (03:40):
So Deic is like a little it's like one of
the islands off the coast. Split is like obviously like
a little bit more north and inward.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
But you could definitely hit Dubrovnik.
Speaker 3 (03:50):
I think I took like an hour and a half
boat from Dubrevnick to Havar and you can just island
hop it's the best.
Speaker 5 (03:56):
Got it?
Speaker 6 (03:57):
Yeah, Gracias on my list to go to. I've been
fortunate enough to travel to a lot of places. My
easy answer for this is the Galopagos Islands. That's the
craziest place I've ever been to. You gotta go to
Ecuador first. I mean it is in Necdor. You gotta
go to mainline Ecuador. You gotta get like checked. You
can't bring any plastics.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
You can't bring any plastic.
Speaker 5 (04:18):
Yeah, they like.
Speaker 6 (04:19):
Search all your things. You can't bring any seeds. There's
no plastics on the island, so like it's a serious check.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
What do you do about sunscreen stuff?
Speaker 6 (04:25):
They have like special sunscreen there you can buy.
Speaker 5 (04:29):
And I you go to Keto first. Keto was pretty cool.
Speaker 6 (04:34):
We were there when like one of the we were
staying right by the presidential palace and one of the
guys running for president was assassinated and I got to
I woke up. I got an email from the State
Department there like don't go outside of voyage, dude, I'm
right by the presidential palace.
Speaker 5 (04:50):
But yeah, we went to.
Speaker 6 (04:54):
Then we went to the Galapgos Islands for ten days,
stayed in a bunch of the islands. Coolest place are
be into no animals or not, I'm afraid of you.
The coolest experience I ever had happened in the Galapagoes.
I swam with us like a group of baby sea
lions like snorkeling, and they were just playing with me.
And then the big mom came and just like looked
(05:14):
swim these big sea turtles like none of the animals
are afraid of you. Like you would just there would
be like a you'd be sitting on a bench and
like a seal would PLoP up on the bench next
to you.
Speaker 3 (05:24):
Oh my god, I jumped to the top of my
list because I'm such an animal person. I went to
Costa Rica lat An animal. Yeah, I'm the biggest.
Speaker 2 (05:33):
I mean, I am getting a spider and I am
breeding shrimp right now. So yes, yeah, it.
Speaker 6 (05:37):
Is an insane place. Even the birds, the boobies, the
blue foot of boobies. That it's it's a magical place.
So that would be my.
Speaker 1 (05:48):
I didn't even know you could visit the Galapago, so
I just thought that that was something in the Darwin
Road about.
Speaker 4 (05:54):
I didn't know that this was. This was.
Speaker 5 (05:56):
Yeah, there's a bunch of islands you can stay on.
Speaker 6 (05:58):
There's like hotels, there's some really nice and we stay
in this one hotel on one of the islands. Like
we had the top floor and it was like all
open and like these enormous birds would just you could
sit on your deck and they would fly and it
was all open on the water. Oh my god, it
was crazy. But yeah, that's like the little towns are cool.
(06:21):
So yeah, that was incredible. How about you, Brandon, what
are you choosing?
Speaker 1 (06:26):
It's it's a tough choice. I mean, my cheesy answer
for a betting podcast would be Las Vegas. I've been
there twice, two completely different experiences. I went there on
a non bachelor party. My my friend was set to
get married. I planned his bachelor party. I was the
best man. His fiance cheated on him right before the
wedding and right before we left for the trip. So
(06:48):
just imagine what that was like in Las Vegas, the
non bachelor party where you are playing by no rules
at that point with a very angry individual.
Speaker 4 (06:58):
Rightfully so.
Speaker 1 (06:59):
And then I also went on a work trip through
one of my other freelance partners, So two.
Speaker 4 (07:05):
Completely different experiences, both great.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
Still haven't gone there with my wife, so I think
that that would be like the third leg of how
to Appreciate Las Vegas, to do the shows and all
that stuff. But Jamaica I've also done twice. That's an
incredible place. So I've I met Vanessa Lache, which is
really random, at some outdoor beach party. She was drunk,
(07:31):
very funny individual. But the food there is tremendous. The
jerk chicken I could eat all day.
Speaker 6 (07:39):
Yeah, I've been Costa Rica is really cool.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
Okay, it's expensive and overrated.
Speaker 5 (07:46):
I stayed in a resort when out the Costa Rica.
Speaker 6 (07:49):
Been there are other times, but I stated like the
Secrets all inclusive resort, which was pretty cool. The but yeah,
I mean, I've been to Vegas hundred times. If you
ever go to, I guess either one of you or
anyone else out there. Every year I'll put out this
huge list most underrated food city. If you like know
the right people, even off the strip, I can give
(08:09):
you a whole list by category of food of all that,
and it changes every year or too, because it depending
on where the chef's move. But I know a couple
people in the food industry there, so.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
I'll be there for the Grand Prix.
Speaker 5 (08:20):
Hit me up, I will, yeah, I'll give you a list.
Speaker 6 (08:23):
I'll tweet that out soon, an updated list of all
all of the restaurants there. But I'll save I'll save
my next question for the next podcast.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
Okay, I got you know.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
I kind of like this tradition now because Stucky Stucky
comes out left field with these questions, So that's definitely
entering the rundown moving forward, But let's hit the shrimply
unbelievable stat of the week.
Speaker 4 (08:44):
Last fifteen years, we've had.
Speaker 1 (08:46):
Seven teams who have had a wining total of ten
or more in the preseason fall to one in three
straight up, none of which have made the playoffs. The
two teams that could end up fitting this mold would
be Kansas and Baltimore. They play each other on Sunday.
The Chiefs are minus two hundred to make the playoffs
plus one sixty to miss over at DraftKings. The Ravens
(09:09):
are minus twelve hundred to make the playoffs plus two
hundred to miss. Are you willing to take a shot
on either of those to miss the playoffs right now?
As it stands? And perhaps the better question is, is Sunday's
game and an elimination game?
Speaker 4 (09:25):
Stuck you? Where are you at on this?
Speaker 6 (09:27):
No, it's not an elimination game, but I mean teams
at start zero and three only only historically made a
playoffs one percent of the time. But if I had
a bet one of those teams to not make it, it
would be the Chiefs. I can't bet the Ravens this weekend.
They have too many injuries, like I still don't know
unlikely recards, so their offense isn't the same. Their guards
(09:48):
are struggling and then defensively without Van Noy without Matabuke,
who might be out for an extended period of time.
They got to go get someone they got a trade for,
like Dexter Lawrence or someone. Their defensive line, their whole
defensive line didn't practice yesterday, is in shambles. They can't
stop the run, they can't get pressure. It's a mess
right now in a short week. So I can't bet
them here as a two and a half point road favorite.
(10:09):
But if I had to take a shot, I would
go no on the Chiefs just because I think the
Chiefs are a worst team number one, and I know
they're probably going to get Rice and Worthy back and
have them both back, but their division is tougher, like
there's no burrow for the Bengals. I don't think the
Steelers are any good. And then the Browns, so like
(10:33):
the Ravens, have a much easier path, whereas the Chargers
already beat the Chiefs, already have a game in hand.
You know, you have the Broncos, who are a pretty
good team with a wind total that was around nine
and a half. I think the Raiders that they can
figure out their offensive line and.
Speaker 5 (10:48):
Some of the.
Speaker 6 (10:50):
Some of the coaching stuff that has gone Awrye. They're
not going to be an easy out, so that division,
I think is much tougher, which might make the path
a little more difficult for the Chiefs, who are I
think a worse team than the Ravens, but the Vodomart
to get healthy. But I don't think it's a must
win for either. But you don't want to be one
(11:11):
and three. It's not you don't have worm Ferrari, you
don't your margin for Eric. It's much thinner, like if
you have injuries, and like you can't it'll every game
then becomes even more critical.
Speaker 3 (11:20):
I actually gave out in August on my other show
casey to miss the playoffs, uh, and people called me
a dei higher and stupid, and I have all of
their comments saved, locked and loaded, ready for that to happen.
I do kind of think it's a must win of
for Kansas City just because their divisions a lot tougher.
Like Stucky said, I think Baltimore is going to be fine.
(11:42):
That division is not as strong, in my opinion, as
it has been in recent years. I do think that
they'll be okay even if they lose this game, but
it's borderline must win for the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (11:52):
Yeah, it does feel like their back is up against it.
And I originally when this line came out, and even
before or we saw the Lions run up and down
the field on the Ravens, it felt like this is
going to be a chief spot home Underdog, Patrick Mahomes,
Andy Reid, all of those things that we've said one
hundred times already. I just can't pull the trigger on it.
(12:13):
I don't trust this Chiefs team enough. The way that
they're currently composed, and and the fact that the Ravens
got run out of the building makes this feel like,
you know, almost a Ravens spot.
Speaker 4 (12:25):
I just the Ravens are a far better team.
Speaker 1 (12:28):
Derreck Henry has fumble issues, yes, but can the Chiefs
offensively keep up with Baltimore? I just don't think that
they can. So I think I'm gonna sit on the
sidelines for that game, and.
Speaker 6 (12:39):
It's okay to pass. You're going to get the best
effort of both both staffs. Both like it's I do
think it's an elimination for the one seed. Both teams
are already behind the eight ball, especially with the Ravens
who already lost to the Bills, who have an easy schedule,
easy division, but either one of these teams starts one
and three, you can pretty much kiss home field advantage
(13:00):
through out the playoffs goodbye, which is obviously ubercritical in
the AFC.
Speaker 2 (13:03):
I'm all over the Ravens this week.
Speaker 4 (13:05):
So you're all in on Baltimore?
Speaker 3 (13:07):
Yeah, I thinks for you, Yeah, I think this is
Baltimore spot. We talked about it the other day. I
figured you guys would be all in on once again
the Patrick Mahomes dog at home angle.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
But I think that this is a great spot for Baltimore.
Speaker 3 (13:19):
And do I want to play in Kansas City against
Patrick Mahomes when he really needs win, No, absolutely not.
But the Baltimore offense, I don't see Dereck Henry fumbling
this week. Their offense is lights out. Obviously their defense
can make some improvements. But the thing is is that
the Chiefs, they're not healthy. They don't have the weapons
to keep up with them right now. I get the
home field advantage thing, the Patrick Mahomes angle, all of it,
(13:40):
but Baltimore is the best team in the league right
now in my opinion. When everybody plays to their strengths,
plays to what they're capable of, and I just don't
see them coming off of the schedule that they've had
and losing this game.
Speaker 1 (13:54):
Where are we at on Metabouque because that was huge
on Monday Night. I don't think that the Chiefs are
good enough running the football, but Checko has been terrible,
Kareem Hunt's been bad. I don't think they're good enough
to take advantage of that absence, but it would still
be big because if the Chiefs can run, then I
would feel a whole lot better about backing them. I'm
(14:14):
gonna lay off of the game. But where are we
at in terms of the middle of that defense? Stuckey,
We don't.
Speaker 6 (14:19):
The whole d line is hurt so and we don't
know the ominous updates from Harbo who said he's out
this week. He doesn't know, so people are People in
Baltimore are thinking that it could be a long term thing,
so that might have to be addressed with a signing
or a trade.
Speaker 5 (14:34):
So we'll see TVD.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
Update on the quarterbacks. Some of the real line movers
out there. Jackson Dart is going to get the start
ahead of Russell Wilson.
Speaker 4 (14:42):
In New York.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
They take on the undefeated Chargers on Sunday. I want
to bet the Giants here. I'll save my reasoning for
the back end of the episode, because they're one that
I'm going to pitch to you guys. The most heavily
bet games this week so far. Of course, one of
the them is going to be this one. I think
anytime the Giants are involved, that's going to be the case.
(15:04):
But John Harball seems to be getting a lot of
action one of the most heavily big games Chargers, Giants.
Everybody seems to be in on Harball. Any hesitation backing
the rook here for you, Kendra.
Speaker 3 (15:18):
It almost got to the window on this game just
because of Harbaugh against rookie quarterbacks. But with that combined
with I think that the locker room really is going
to rally behind Jackson. I think that the Giants defense
has played really well in the last couple of weeks.
I think that that's the saving grace of that team.
Russ really really screwed them over last week. It seems
(15:39):
like they were getting stops getting off the field that
whole bit, giving them opportunities to go ahead. I think
that this rallies that team a little bit. Numbers two big,
don't love the harball against rookie quarterback angle so close
to getting there for me. If this line moved a
little bit more, potentially, I just I don't think I
can touch it. I was telling Gifford before we got.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
On the show.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
The spreads this week are just way, way, way too huge.
Not my favorite betting week. This everything feels yucky, way
too big.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
I'm not having a good time.
Speaker 1 (16:09):
We've seen a lot of line moves as well. One
of the things to monitor with that Giants game is
Malik Neighbors did not practice. I don't know how serious
that issue is, but if he doesn't play, that would
be huge. Andrew Thomas has been in and out of
the lineup, he was limited, and the Giants still have
kicker issues as well, So there are reasons to be
concerned outside of the Giants just not being overall a
good football team. But it does seem like if you
(16:31):
end up on the Chargers, just know public Joe over
here if you do that, because the public's going to
be all over the La Chargers. Carson Wentz undefeated overseas,
He's won to oh. He takes on Aaron Rodgers, who
has never won a game across the pond zero and
two for him.
Speaker 4 (16:47):
Are we sitting this one out? This has been all
Vikings money so far. Stucky.
Speaker 6 (16:52):
Yeah, it regards to the Giants, I highlight the Giants.
I'm waiting on the neighbors news. Thomas is just resting.
I think he'll be a full go. He looked great
in the first half. He's just on a snap count.
The Charters have three offensive linemen or DMPs yesterday in
practice that could potentially ruin the game for them.
Speaker 5 (17:08):
But I'm waiting.
Speaker 6 (17:09):
It's at six and a half. I'm going to see
if a seven pops want monitor the injury reports, watch
the market, But I think I will be on the Giants.
Winless teams as dogs in this range of historically performed
really well. Now, a lot of variants in this game
because we don't know we're gonna get from Dark, but
it's gonna be better than Russ and they're gonna have
at least had a kicker. They signed young, could all
have a kicker that's healthy. They didn't have a kicker
against the Chiefs cost them multiple scores. So yeah, I
(17:32):
think the uncertainty with Dark too, like the Charters don't
know what they're gonna get like how much we're kind
of read options and what's everything going to look like?
So that could work in the giants favor. So yeah,
with the Chargers offensive line injuries, they might not be
able to block New York and they really crumbled their
offense last week after those guys went out against Denver,
and the Giants have a similar front. In regards to
the Vikings, I did play the Vikings. I think here, Look,
(17:57):
the Vikings are much healthier. They should get their offensive
line except for Jackson at guard back healthy. They're gonna
get Addison back Wentz I think is an upgrade over
McCarthy as I alluded to last week. And then defensively,
they're fairly healthy. The Steelers are not dealing with a
lot of injuries. The Steelers should be owen three, like really,
they should be owing three, and this line would be
up over a field goal. Here's here's how I think
(18:19):
it plays out. Steelers have a very predictable single high defense,
like they're running that like sixty sixty five seventy percent
of the time. That's not what you don't want to
have a predictible offense when you're going up against O'Connell
and those weapons and injuries on your defense. So and
I think they'll be able to run the ball too.
So I think the Bikers is going to move the ball.
The Steelers can't run it, they can't protect, and they're
(18:42):
going up against Brian Flores. They're going to be in
known passing situations. And Aaron Rodger has been the worst
quarterback in the league against pressure this season. I think
he's six of twenty two with three interceptions. It's been
horrendous and it's not like there's no recourse you can't move,
So I don't know what they're going to do. I
think Rogers get suffocated under the pressure. Vikings, even with Wentz,
(19:04):
were able to move the ball. I'll take the Vikings
it under a field goal.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
I kind of like the Steelers here.
Speaker 3 (19:10):
No money from me yet, but I was really thinking
about it this morning. I like the mic I like
the Tomlin as a dog situation.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
I always like that angle.
Speaker 3 (19:20):
But my other thing is that Carson Wentz will fumble
the ball if they have any opportunity to recover a
fumble from him. I think that that bodes well for
the Steelers. But I did learn something interesting this morning.
I guess you remember, guys, how I was talking about
my angle that whatever team gets there first is who
I will back. I learned today that there's a new
rule in twenty twenty five with the NFL where both
teams have to arrive on the same day for games overseas.
Speaker 5 (19:43):
Interesting, I know.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
I hate that. I hate that so much.
Speaker 3 (19:47):
Like there's no like when they go West coast to
East coast, there's no day that you have to get there.
I hate that so much because I heard that the
Steelers wanted to go early and the Vikings wanted to
stay with and go Thursday, and they settled both on
going Thursday.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
Maybe this is why they've realized that there's some competitive
advantage to it, so the NFL has to squash that out.
Speaker 3 (20:11):
Hey but yeah, but like that's like the entirety of
the NFL is having some sort of competitive advantage when
you can get it. What's preventing the Vikings from leaving
earlier than the Stealers Absolutely nothing.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
Absolutely nothing.
Speaker 1 (20:24):
By the way, Jordan Addison is back this week. He's
off suspension for the Minnesota Vikings, so they get a
little more firepower on offense.
Speaker 4 (20:31):
I'll be Vikings or pass.
Speaker 1 (20:32):
For me the Unknowns this week, Jayden Daniels says that
he feels fine, but he still needs to be cleared
by team doctors.
Speaker 4 (20:38):
He's dealing with that knee sprain.
Speaker 1 (20:39):
Brock Purty still limited in practice, Mac Jones is limited. Also,
if I end up, I'm still sitting on this forty
nine Ers minus three and a half with my plant
the flag bet from Tuesday's episode. If I get Adrian Martinez,
I am going to throw up. So hopefully that does
not happen. So it's still turf to a variant situation
for Party. Hopefully he plays.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
And then just a Fortynineers podcast yesterday and they think
that Rock Party will play all right.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
Like to hear that the It's interesting with that Commander's
Falcons game, Stucky, you were when we were on Sunday's
recap show. I was, I was, I was throwing the
falcons in bet jail. You said, listen, this is the
NFL might have to just back the Falcons. They were
plus three on Sunday night. They are plus one and
(21:29):
a half. Now we've seen some of the most significant
line moves this week have been in that game. In particular,
did you grab the three early, you feel good with
where you're at, and even even still, we don't know
what's going on with Jayden Daniels, but the line would
dictate that it looks like he's not gonna play.
Speaker 6 (21:47):
No, I mean, this is what I would make it
with Daniels. That's a plus three is a horrible line
in my opinion. It was just an overreaction to what
we just saw with the Falcons. And it's not like
the Commanders have been great. Uh Like they got a
bunch of special teams plays last week, they were dominated
by the Packers and they beat Russell Wilson in Week one.
I think this team is overrated coming into the year
due for some massive aggression on laid downs. So yeah,
(22:09):
I grabbed the three first bet I made this week.
Feel good about it. I'd still play the Falcons at
plus one and a half. There are and there are
other injuries too. With the Commanders. You got McLaurin, They
have d backs that are hurt. They have other wide
receivers that.
Speaker 2 (22:25):
Are Clauren's getting a second evaluation.
Speaker 6 (22:28):
Yeah, I assume. I assume he's going to be out.
So I love, love, love love the Falcons here. This
is also fits a Let me pull up my sheet here,
this fits like three different things that I love. Falcons
(22:50):
off a shutout loss, Dogs off a shutout loss forty six,
twenty nine and three against the spread sixty one percent,
Dogs off a thirty plus point loss one fifteen, seventy
seven and eight against the spread sixty percent. You're talking
about big samplesizes over twenty five years sixty plus percent.
Why is that nobody look like what you guys were
saying on Sunday. You wanted to put him in bet jail.
You didn't want to bet them. Nobody wants to bet
(23:11):
the team that they just saw get shut out or
lose by thirty. But it's the NFL teams are never
as bad or as good as they look. The other
teams that fit those thirty plus point losses the Bengals,
who I did bet on Monday night at over at
seven and a half, and the Saints, who I probably
will bet at fifteen and a half. I think it's
just too many. The Saints were actually not that bad
(23:32):
on a down the down basis. They were just killed
by special teams. But yeah, with all the injuries down
the commanders across the board against the Falcons, who I
like their defensive improvements. I expect Penis to bounce back.
I know he was awful last week, but I like Atlanta.
I mean, Penix was good enough in Minnesota against that
defense to get the win, and they should be able
(23:54):
to run on Washington. And even if Daniels plays, I
doubt it's going to be one hundred percent. He's not
going to be as effective with his legs. So yeah,
give me Atlanta at home all day.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
I mean, this is just this is just one of
those that you're probably right, and yet when you watch
these teams play, and the Commanders have looked pretty buttoned
up so far this season outside of what the Packers
were able to do to them defensively, but this Falcons
team looks like a wreck.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
You're crazy, for real, so crazy the week before the
week book.
Speaker 5 (24:28):
They should have beat the Bucks in Week one and then.
Speaker 6 (24:30):
Okay, they want at Minnesota, right, Nay McCarthy was a disaster.
Speaker 1 (24:39):
I mean, people in Minnesota are saying, hey, maybe Carson
went to give their defense.
Speaker 6 (24:42):
Minnesota's defense wasn't isn't like you you're just going off
of You're going off of one single data point, Like
if we went. That's the same thing of why no
one wanted to bet the Dolphins last week except me
and a couple of others, Like, just because the Dolphins
look so.
Speaker 2 (24:58):
Bad, your Dolphins play encouraged you in that. Don't don't
love me.
Speaker 5 (25:02):
You know, I'm saying how people overreact all this.
Speaker 6 (25:04):
I'm not saying every single person, but I mean, if
you just went based on week, I mean, this happens
every year in weeks three and four. But everyone known
wanted a bet the Browns last week because they lost
by twenty five to the Ravens. But if you really
watch that game, they weren't that bad. It was like
it was really just fluky stuff.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
I think you're right, I just it's so I can't
get there. I think you're right, I just I can't
do it.
Speaker 4 (25:28):
Absolutely who wanted.
Speaker 5 (25:29):
About Everyone was betting the Cowboys like they knew the
final score. Last week, the Bears.
Speaker 4 (25:34):
I bet the Bears. Lest I know.
Speaker 5 (25:35):
I'm just giving you examples of all this.
Speaker 6 (25:37):
The Bears have looked unbettable, like you couldn't play. The
Falcons looked like that last week too, But it's one
week in the NFL like that.
Speaker 5 (25:45):
That's that's just how it works in this game.
Speaker 1 (25:47):
But it works both ways because some things you don't
want to overreact to and some things you should react
to a good example of that would be to this point,
the Indianapolis Colts. It just felt like, Okay, after we
one they blow out the Dolphins, Well, what does that
really mean? Well, they're sitting at three and oh against
the spread now, So if you had properly reacted to that,
(26:07):
you'd be cashing in on Indianapolis. I think sometimes with
the limited sample size, you have to pick and choose
what are you going to react to and what are
you not going to react to? And the Falcons are
one of those. The way that they have looked, I
think I'm willing to react to the point where I'm
just not willing to bet them.
Speaker 4 (26:29):
I have a solution, That's where That's where I'm at
with that.
Speaker 2 (26:32):
I have a solution.
Speaker 3 (26:34):
If stuck he wins this bet this week, you have
to bet the Falcons next week?
Speaker 2 (26:41):
Who do they play?
Speaker 4 (26:42):
They're in jail?
Speaker 2 (26:43):
Are they are they on the Falcons on the by
next week?
Speaker 5 (26:47):
Do they have an early buye see that?
Speaker 3 (26:52):
I think Week six you have to bet the Falcons
no matter what if he wins this, they're not, they're
in bet jail. But if not, they're in bet jail
home against the Bills.
Speaker 5 (27:03):
Yes, off the mine. That's a good shot, that's a
good spot too.
Speaker 1 (27:06):
All Right, I'll say this, I'll go I'll go all
in with this. And I still need to buy the
shirt after losing the Dolphins bet head to head with Stuggy.
But if the Falcons cover the spread, they don't even
need to win.
Speaker 4 (27:18):
But we're talking about a thin margin here.
Speaker 1 (27:20):
If they just cover the spread, I will I will
place a half unit bet on the Atlanta Falcons money
line against the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 4 (27:29):
Yes, this is the solution.
Speaker 5 (27:31):
And by the way, you mentioned the Colts.
Speaker 6 (27:33):
Yes, there's always one or two exceptions to the rule
where a team is gonna be significantly better and they're
gonna outperform the market. But for the most part, in general,
in weeks three, four, or five, you're better off, not
a reacting just as a blanket statement, because are you
gonna be able to pick the right ones? If you are,
(27:53):
you can make millions of dollars. But I think in general,
just this is an overarching theme. When you're better in
the NFL, don't overreact to one week. And that's why
these teams who lose by thirty plus have hit on
the close sixty one percent against the spread over a
thirty year period because no one wants to bet them.
Lines usually inflated the next week. So and it's not
(28:17):
always some you don't want to bet these, bet all
of them blindly. But in this case, I'm on the Falcons,
especially when you throw in the commander's injuries.
Speaker 2 (28:26):
I like you.
Speaker 1 (28:27):
Like you said, I think if you if you're gonna
blanket it and just say okay, in general, we're not
going to overreact, then you almost have you put yourself
in a position where you have to bet all of
those teams in order to hit the percentages. So you
have to be on the Falcons, the Saints, and the Bengals.
Speaker 4 (28:48):
I just I am well then, I mean.
Speaker 6 (28:51):
I just I sometimes if they depending on the matchups,
depending on what I may I project the number as well.
Speaker 5 (28:56):
There's other things that go into it. But I will
be on all three this uh Wolf this weekend.
Speaker 4 (29:04):
I respect that.
Speaker 1 (29:05):
Like if you're gonna go if you're gonna go all
in exactly, if you're gonna go all in with the
let's not overreact. Then you have to blanket it. You
gotta you gotta cover the board with the teams that
we would overreact to. And then in that sense, the
percentages will work in your favor.
Speaker 4 (29:19):
I'm not willing I guarantee too.
Speaker 6 (29:21):
They could easily go on three again. It's it's it's
small sample sizes. But that's that's kind of my philosophy.
Speaker 1 (29:26):
Uh.
Speaker 5 (29:27):
When bet in the NFL. So I'm now when we
get to this parlay, I don't even know when you
guys are gonna choose. Uh?
Speaker 2 (29:33):
Are we a month into this season? I'm freaking out.
Speaker 4 (29:36):
I can't believe next week is week five.
Speaker 1 (29:38):
That is very strange, But it is time for the
artist formerly known as the Three Musketeers parlay took a
couple of l's from the and the overlords in action
have said that the Three Musketeers have to go six
feet under. So what are we calling this thing? We
have three options right now. We'll allow some right in
candidates for the listeners out there, this is your show.
Speaker 4 (29:57):
At the end of the day.
Speaker 1 (29:58):
Two kings and a Queen is one option, cash or
trash or the trifecta ticket for the three leg parlay
do you have early votes.
Speaker 4 (30:08):
By the way, guys, I like cash or trash.
Speaker 5 (30:12):
Two Kings and a Queen would be my vote for now,
but I'm gonna think on it.
Speaker 4 (30:17):
I'll sit this out.
Speaker 1 (30:18):
I'm gonna let the listeners decide what we end up with.
So this is where we nominate two plays each see
if we can find some general consensus on the board
and eventually land on our team built parlay. I'll get
us started since I took the I had the lone
dub last week with the Chicago Bears, a team that
I did not have in bet jail. I'm gonna tee
(30:40):
up the Colts Rams over forty nine and a half
or the Giants plus six and a half. So the
reasoning for the over for me is one thing I
can trust on both sides of these teams. I think
the Colts might be a fraud, but I don't really
want to bet against them. And I also think the
Rams could be mentally broken after the way that they
(31:02):
they just melted down down the stretch up nineteen against
the Philadelphia Eagles. So what can I trust in this game?
It's the offenses. Pokinaku has been the best wide receiver
in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor has been the best running
back in the NFL.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
In THEA just kiss Amen ra Well.
Speaker 1 (31:16):
I mean, statistically, Puka's been the guy. He is the
most yards in the league. But really this comes down
to the Colts defense. I think if the Colts are fraudulent,
Danny Dimes is efficient, Jonathan Taylor is a good back,
they have a good offensive line. I don't think any
of that is fraudy. But the Colts rank dead last
in the NFL. It's stopping teams from converting first downs.
(31:38):
They also have zero stops in the red zone. That's
not gonna bode well on the road against the Sean
McVay let offense. So I think a lot of points
are gonna be scored in this game. I go over
forty nine.
Speaker 4 (31:47):
And a half.
Speaker 2 (31:50):
I'm probably gonna go the over, I like.
Speaker 3 (31:53):
I think I like that better even though I threw
an option out in this game. I agree with you
about the points scoring, and I just I can't.
Speaker 2 (32:04):
I can't get on the Giants. I can't get on
the Giants. I can't do it. I need they might
be in bet yill for me.
Speaker 1 (32:09):
See this is where I like a good gross play too, Stucky,
I'm gonna go with the Giants.
Speaker 4 (32:13):
Plus six and a half is my other one.
Speaker 1 (32:15):
Rookie making his first start in the NFL against a
Jim Harball not been profitable Jim Harball four to zero
against the spread and games where he's going up against
the rookie quarterback since joining the Chargers. Thank you Evan
Abrams for that one. But betting the Chargers just feels
way too easy here. Three to zero against the spread.
They don't have the travel advantage ten am body clock
(32:36):
game for them, and I think day Bole's smart enough
to know let's dial back the offense. Let's run it
with scataboo, Let's get easy first downs with Jackson Dart
and his legs, and perhaps even pull an upset against
the team that has performed over expectation three weeks in
a row in the LA Chargers. So those are the
two options, Stucky, where's your where's your vote?
Speaker 5 (32:59):
Yeah, I'm gonna go.
Speaker 6 (33:01):
I still can't figure out the Colts, Like they're the
one team that I'm like, all right, hit pause on.
But the Colts aren't fast, They're slow. The Rams are
so McVeigh so conservative at times, and the Rams have
this hidden advantage with their kickoffs. They're like pinning teams
down that they're starting within like the at the fifteen
yard line. They're doing these like knuckleball line drives. The
(33:23):
Eagles could not figure it out by starting field position
like the worst in the league is the forty nine
ers teams are starting. Of course, the forty nine special
team is a joke. Teams are starting at like the
thirty four yard line on average. The team against the
Rams teams are starting at like the twenty the fourteen
yard difference, so longer fields.
Speaker 5 (33:42):
Rams.
Speaker 6 (33:43):
So I can't get there because I still have a
good feal on the Colts, although Kenny Moore's out could
be a big loss for the Colts defense.
Speaker 5 (33:49):
So I'm going to go with the Giants.
Speaker 6 (33:52):
Because I'm going to be betting them myself, and I
think that the offensive line injuries for the Chargers are major.
I remember they already lost their right tackle for Sean
Slater or they're left tackle, and then all had to
move over before the year, and it was a disaster
last week and three of those guys didn't practice.
Speaker 5 (34:07):
So I'm gonna go with the Giants. So we need our.
Speaker 3 (34:12):
Jesus Christ didn't get raptureds to tie.
Speaker 1 (34:16):
Break, mister Evan, who you got Colts Rams over giants
plus six and a half.
Speaker 7 (34:24):
I'll take the giants. And I've been waiting for seven,
So there's the reason I haven't gotten there.
Speaker 5 (34:28):
And I figured saying, that's what I'm waiting for you
to come in.
Speaker 7 (34:31):
But I think I think the Rams and Giants are
the right sides. I just think it depends on the number.
Speaker 3 (34:38):
I feel like that episode of Peppa Pig where his
friend calls him and he's like, can you whistle? And
he finds out he can't whistle and he just hangs
up the phone.
Speaker 4 (34:47):
Are we supposed to remember episodes of Peppa Pig.
Speaker 5 (34:50):
I've never heard of that.
Speaker 2 (34:52):
Oh my god, you better get rid of you're about
to be a dad. Papa Pig is still a thing?
Speaker 5 (34:57):
Is it a cartoon?
Speaker 2 (34:58):
Yeah? It's like a really really teeny like tiny kids shell.
Speaker 4 (35:02):
It's for like five year olds.
Speaker 3 (35:03):
Yeah, it's still you will be I I guarantee in
three years you will be well rehearsed in Papa Peg.
Speaker 5 (35:10):
Is it like songs and stuff?
Speaker 3 (35:11):
Is that it's just like a little kids show about
like English, Like they're British pigs and it's it's kind
of cute.
Speaker 4 (35:17):
I like it somehow I've avoided Pepa Pig.
Speaker 5 (35:19):
What was your favorite show growing up as a little kid.
Speaker 1 (35:23):
The Cartoon Network was so popular when I was little,
Johnny Bravo, Zooms, the Scooby Doo was a.
Speaker 6 (35:28):
Big Struggrats was probably mine when I was really young.
Speaker 5 (35:33):
Are you too old for Prougrats, Kendra?
Speaker 2 (35:35):
I'm too young for Yeah?
Speaker 5 (35:37):
I too young?
Speaker 2 (35:38):
Yeah, rugrats are like on their way out, and I.
Speaker 6 (35:42):
Was all right, So I'll give my two are the
falcons who already gave, and I'll also give what are
my other options?
Speaker 5 (35:52):
Here? I'll tell you what I'm gonna play or played?
I agree with you.
Speaker 2 (35:55):
Put the jags in the notes.
Speaker 5 (35:56):
Yeah, we're gonna get through the jags. Uh.
Speaker 4 (36:00):
Sulky and I are in. We are.
Speaker 1 (36:05):
We are like two rams butting heads right now.
Speaker 3 (36:10):
No, this is genuinely when you're a little kid and
your parents are arguing in the kitchen and you're just
sitting there trying to eat your mac and cheese and
peace and you're.
Speaker 2 (36:16):
Not supposed to hear them fighting. This is literally what
I feel like right now. My parents are fighting in
the kitchen.
Speaker 5 (36:23):
You don't like these, I'll give three options. I already
mentioned the Falcons. I won't make you. I won't make you,
guys consider the Saints.
Speaker 4 (36:31):
I can consider the Saints, and.
Speaker 5 (36:34):
People bet the Saints Falcons. Let's see the other two
I'll put out throw out. There are the Jags, the
forty nine ers.
Speaker 6 (36:47):
Injuries are devastating, and even if pretty plays, I don't
think it's gonna be fully healthy. I don't know if
it's gona be able to drive. And they have the
Rams on Thursday night, so and they're already three and oh,
so they might just be cautious with some of their injuries. Uh,
there's injuries at wide receiver, on defense, the offensive line,
both quarterbacks are hurt, and with a divisional game on Thursday,
(37:08):
they might go super considerable. I like what I've seen
from from the Jags, and they're much better shape health wise.
They just need to stop dropping balls. But there's so
much better coached takes, their offensive scheme under Liam Cohen,
their defensive structure, and what the coverages they're running on
the back end instead of just running man with personnelity,
you don't have to run man like they did.
Speaker 5 (37:28):
All last year.
Speaker 6 (37:28):
So Jags at over a field goal with all the
San Fran injury uncertainty, and then I'll throw out the Pats.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
It's five and a half though, that's crazy.
Speaker 6 (37:37):
Pats minus five and a half. I don't, I don't.
The Panthers not gonna be able to move the ball,
like and Christian Zalas should be back. That's and the
Pats moving the ball up and down the field. They
should have won last week. Panthers, by the way, off
of a shutout win. Dogs off a shutout win historically
thirty one percent against the spread. Like, think about your
(37:58):
reaction just now, who wants to you take? The Panthers
are getting five and out, they just want thirty nothing. Well,
historically Dogs after a shutout win thirty thirty one and
a half percent, So I'll throw them out. They're gonna
move the ball on this Panthers defense, and I think
the Panthers are They're going to lose the line of scrimmage.
Speaker 2 (38:15):
Mac Millan also hurt. Yeah, Patriots, I'm taking the Falcons.
Speaker 5 (38:21):
Jags and Falcons Falcons.
Speaker 2 (38:24):
Kramitz.
Speaker 4 (38:26):
I mean you know that, just morally, I can't.
Speaker 1 (38:29):
I would rather and I'm i took a sprinkle in
the Panthers money line just in case what happened last
week was real. If that's the case, then they'll hang
with New England and at least be in it at
the end of the game. At two to one odds.
I felt like that was a bit that I had
to at least sprinkle on. The Panthers are dealing with
a load of injuries with wide receivers as well, and
they were dealing with that coming into the season.
Speaker 4 (38:49):
They might not be.
Speaker 5 (38:51):
Starters as well.
Speaker 1 (38:52):
I mean, the Panthers plus the points definitely not the
right side. I don't think the Patriots are worthy favorites
of that sort of margin, but I'm not I'm already
on the forty nine ers. I think I would say
the Patriots would be my vote. Evan, you might have
to break the time, Okay, yep.
Speaker 5 (39:10):
Ye, Patriots and Falcons.
Speaker 7 (39:15):
Is the choice between Patriots and Falcons. I thought we
were talking Jaguars.
Speaker 6 (39:18):
Well, Jaguars are in there too, and if you if
you they didn't get any votes, if you picked the Jags,
and I'd break the tie on my own.
Speaker 7 (39:24):
I love the Jags At three and a half, that
would be the I would touch Carolina at six. Aside
from that, I kind of agree with both of you.
I wouldn't touch Carolina or New England. That's a past spot.
I need to learn more about both of those teams
to make the bat. I think the Jaguars BET's great.
Speaker 5 (39:38):
All right, so especially Kendra's gonna be there.
Speaker 2 (39:41):
So I feel like you guys had like a pre
show meeting where you were like, let's fuck with Kendra
this week because she's gonna be there.
Speaker 5 (39:47):
Yeah, we have to go to the Jags, all right,
So we got Jags and Giants.
Speaker 4 (39:50):
I can do this. I can't even put this in
the app. What's my first bet this week was the
forty nine ers?
Speaker 5 (39:57):
Well, you can make up for the loser.
Speaker 2 (40:00):
Now I'm having a heart attack.
Speaker 3 (40:02):
My cat.
Speaker 4 (40:03):
My cat is so upset. She just ran over my equipment.
Speaker 3 (40:06):
My dog just jumped into snuggling my ghost pillow.
Speaker 4 (40:09):
Now, all right, so what.
Speaker 5 (40:11):
You got, Bendor? What are your choices you're bringing?
Speaker 2 (40:13):
All right?
Speaker 3 (40:14):
I am bringing the Rams to cover or the Ravens
to cover. I'm putting a gun to both of your head.
It seems like Evan already gave his opinion in this.
I think that this is probably easy for both of you.
I was just feeling he hustledly. You guys are going
the Rams, I figure, heamn, this is.
Speaker 5 (40:32):
I'm a Ravens fan. I usually have a good read
on them.
Speaker 6 (40:35):
I can't go to the Ravens with all their injuries,
so for me, yeah, I mean, I wish it was three,
and if the three I will bet it. But I
do like especially with the Kenny Moore injury, and.
Speaker 5 (40:52):
This is so good.
Speaker 6 (40:54):
Yeah, give me the Rams was great.
Speaker 1 (41:01):
The fact that I hate this parlay so much probably
means it's gonna come home, So I'll take I'll take
the Rams as my vote minus three and a half.
Speaker 3 (41:10):
This is incredible, My Rams, Jags, and Giants. I'm telling you,
guys my Sunday video for Socials after I have a
couple of beers. If they lose this game or win,
this game is going to be an absolute old timer.
Speaker 2 (41:26):
I might get beat up by a forty nine Ers fan.
Speaker 5 (41:30):
I can't wait.
Speaker 6 (41:31):
I can't wait to watch those Yeah, be careful the
forty nine Ers fans can be I.
Speaker 3 (41:35):
Know a forty nine Ers fan pulled my hair in
Jacksonville at the game last time.
Speaker 2 (41:39):
They played. Literally a grown ass man pulled my hair.
Speaker 6 (41:42):
At least it's not like a dog. It's the jag,
so it's at least it's not like a Dodgers Giants gamer.
By the way, we didn't mention even the luck the
luck the luck matchup of the week. Check out Nikiffin's
luck rankings on the action of our gap the two
luckiest teams. I'm in the luck rankings. I'm the unluckiest one.
The two lucky teams in the league by far are
playing each other in the Eagles and the Bucks. And
(42:05):
I'm not just saying that it's a formula. They've been
extremely lucky every single week, and I faded them five
times already. Of course, the two luckiest teams. So and
I'm one and four and I almost run on the
game if they don't block it. The Jets don't block
that field goal, So those are the two luckiest teams.
(42:27):
A lot of injuries to monitor for the Bucks. I
got nothing there, but I just wanted to mention the
luck crankings. Make sure you check them out.
Speaker 1 (42:32):
Yeah, for sure, it's an invaluable resource. Chris Godwin might
be back for Tampa Bay. They need that because Mike
Evans is.
Speaker 4 (42:39):
Out Tristan.
Speaker 1 (42:43):
Yeah, and and Baker Mayfield, by the way, dealing with
the right bicep injury. That's us throwing arm. That's that
is definitely something to monitor. I don't think you should
touch that game until we get more information on Sunday.
Speaker 4 (42:56):
All right, there we go. It's locked in.
Speaker 1 (42:57):
We get the Rams minus three and a half, we
get the Eggs plus three and a half, we get
the Giants plus six and a half as.
Speaker 4 (43:04):
Our newly named parlay.
Speaker 1 (43:06):
Keep it locked on all of the Action Network social
channels and we'll get your vote on what we.
Speaker 4 (43:10):
Call this thing moving forward.
Speaker 1 (43:12):
That's gonna do it for today's episode special thanks to
the producers Gifford Gold and David Paine.
Speaker 4 (43:16):
The Favorites War turn no show on Sunday night.
Speaker 1 (43:19):
We'll be back on Tuesday afternoon right here on the
Action Network YouTube page when we talk NFL Week five, Kendra,
have fun in San Francisco, Stucky, good luck as we
go ahead to head this week. Thanks for tuning in.
We'll see you next time here on the Favorites Podcast.
It's Cassie's tickets.
Speaker 2 (43:45):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Hosts And Creators
Chad Millman
Simon Hunter
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Breakfast Club
The World's Most Dangerous Morning Show, The Breakfast Club, With DJ Envy, Jess Hilarious, And Charlamagne Tha God!