October 16, 2025 • 37 mins
The Favorites trio is back for a deeper dive into NFL Week 7! Kendra Middleton, Stuckey and Brandon Kravitz discuss trends, matchups and some of their favorite bets for the Week 7 slate. Who wins the battle of aura between Daniel Jones and Justin Herbert and how does that impact who to back in this matchup? From weird jobs to backing ugly teams to Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams breaking ties yet again, the crew gets into it all. Plus, they put together another 2 Kings and a Queen Parlay right here on The Favorites!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined by my Faves and your faves,
Kendra and Stucky. Week seven in the NFL is upon us,
and we've got plays for this week. On today's show,
we will submit those official plays. Two Kings and a
Queen Parlay. I gotta come through for the group. I
(00:32):
left us hanging last week. Some public darlings that you
need to be aware of. Like and subscribe wherever it
is that you are tuned in, hopefully everybody on this podcast.
Stucky got ample sleep this week. Great call by you.
By the way, FIU cashed on a Tuesday night, so
got us off to a good start this week. Thank you.
Tip of the cap to you, my friend.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
Yeah, it's always nice when it can get get an
easy one like a ten point dog that one by
But uh yeah that was in the past and now
no sleep here. We're hopefully into a weekend full of winters,
so let's let's get to it.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
Yeah, we got a lot to get to but before
we do, it's a Thursday tradition, Stucky for you to
ask us your random question of the week. I feel
mentally sharp and ready, so give it to us.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
Hey, this is a dumb question.
Speaker 2 (01:25):
Let me ask you a personal question kind of question?
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Is that is question?
Speaker 4 (01:31):
All right?
Speaker 2 (01:31):
What was your most No, you can't answer any no
feat related answers.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
What was he's talking to you?
Speaker 2 (01:40):
What was your most random or end or funniest job
that you've ever had?
Speaker 4 (01:47):
Okay, first of all, I'd like it to be known
that stuck you brought up the feet the first time,
not me, but most randomed.
Speaker 5 (01:53):
I was Robert Salis nanny for a while. Does that count?
Is that random?
Speaker 6 (01:57):
You?
Speaker 5 (01:58):
Robert Salas nanny?
Speaker 1 (02:00):
You were?
Speaker 2 (02:01):
Yeah, that counts, yes, answer.
Speaker 5 (02:06):
But I was like the coolest lady I've ever met.
I'm obsessed with her.
Speaker 4 (02:09):
She literally just used to have become nanny so they
could go on dates and she could go get her
eyelashes done.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
That's where did he live.
Speaker 5 (02:17):
When he was in Jacksonville?
Speaker 2 (02:18):
Do you have any any uh no, dirt on him?
Was he messing?
Speaker 4 (02:22):
Now?
Speaker 5 (02:24):
No, he's bess.
Speaker 4 (02:25):
I genuinely when that whole beef happened with him and
Liam Cohen, I was shocked because, yeah, he's like a
big tough guy, but like he's the.
Speaker 5 (02:31):
Nicest guy I've ever met.
Speaker 4 (02:32):
Would come in talk football with me, talk about the kids,
like his wife was really cool. I was so shocked
when that whole thing went down, because they're just like
the coolest, most clean sheet normal family ever come to you. Family,
so many kids, so many kids. I think they've been
together since like high school.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
How did you get that gig?
Speaker 5 (02:51):
Literally?
Speaker 4 (02:52):
I was on one of the like babysitting websites, and
I had just ended my prior nannying job and was
looking for another name job.
Speaker 5 (03:00):
I didn't want to work in retail again.
Speaker 4 (03:02):
Or whatever, And she hit me up and I start
watching their kids and one day Robert just walks in
and I'm like, wait a second, what.
Speaker 5 (03:10):
I didn't even know that he.
Speaker 4 (03:11):
Was like their dad or anything because he was gone
so much. And one day he like did a swapover
for the kids for me, and he walked in and
I was like, I know you that's amazing.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Wow.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
Yeah, the can't beat that one stuck.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
I think, yeah, I don't. I don't know how I'm
gonna beat that.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
What was the exact phrasing of the question, is.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
The most random, your funniest job you've had?
Speaker 1 (03:34):
Pretty random? My first job while I was in high school,
I got a job at a dollar store in Coral Springs,
Florida called just a Buck, and I worked my way
up to be the assistant night manager of the dollar store.
What a clusterfuck that is. If God bless anybody out
(03:54):
there listening that works in a dollar store, it is
a total disaster between the inventory and the because there's
a trillion items and the dirt that walks into those stores.
It's awful. And I was sixteen, so that was that
was pretty random. I also worked at the I was
a bartender for a while. I worked at the ice
bar in Orlando, so I used to actually work in
(04:15):
the actual ice portion, so it was like thirty degree weather.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
That was a tough one.
Speaker 2 (04:20):
Yeah, manager at a dollar store, that is That is
very random. I'll say I have two answers. In high school,
I got a lot of trouble a lot, so my
dad made me work for his friend who in this
summer to pay off some legal bills for he was
(04:43):
in concrete foundation. So like pouring concrete, taking down the slat.
That was miserable. That's when I found out I did
not want to be in manual labor. I mean I
always knew that, but that that confirmed it. That was tough,
but the most random, That was the hardest, most random.
I worked in the winter my friends when I was
(05:05):
in high school. My friend's family owned a cut your
own Christmas tree farm and people would come and cut
their own Christmas trees this huge farm in the summer.
A couple of days we would go out and plant
them all and then people will come. But not everyone
(05:26):
could cut them on their own, so sometimes you'd have
to go out with them, walk out, cut them, and
then come back bail them, load them up onto their car.
That was probably the most Yeah, that was probably the
most random job that I've ever had, a working at
a cut your own Christmas tree farm in the winter.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
The concrete slab one though that the person who runs
that that business is definitely in the mob, right, Yeah,
we would have we would.
Speaker 2 (05:52):
Have like runnings with like unions in Philly, Like when
we were on a job where they didn't hire the unions,
like the unions would be upset. And I mean I
was just a sixteen year old kid, but uh, it
was definitely an Italian and I'll say I'll say that,
but yeah, that was miserable work. I mean that was
hard work. You had to go. You got to you
(06:16):
poured the concrete, and then then you would first you
would put up the the big panels and they would
be covered in concrete. You'd have to carry them around.
The next day you would go. You'd have to take
them down, carry them, put them, stack them up, get
the crane would come, you'd have to put them. Oh
my god, it was absolutely miserable work. I don't know
(06:38):
how people's like backs. People guys have been doing it
for like twenty years. I don't know how they saw
backs left. I was a sixteen year old kid dying
every day.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
So should have just been selling your feet picks. Then
you wouldn't have had to do any of that.
Speaker 4 (06:48):
Yeah, if only I know it's never me, it's never
me bringing it up.
Speaker 5 (06:51):
I would just like that on the record.
Speaker 1 (06:52):
I didn't say anything about Kendra.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
That was just all right. Ken was the winner of
that this week's question because Robert sawah Nanny that ties
into the NFL beat, So you're the winner.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
You can't beat that, Evan, do you do you want
to try and top that or you want to sit
this one out?
Speaker 4 (07:10):
No?
Speaker 6 (07:10):
I mean construction would have been my answer. I mean,
I've been working in sports information and gambling for way
too long to have something as.
Speaker 7 (07:16):
Interesting as being the nanny of Robert Sala.
Speaker 6 (07:19):
I can't beat that one iota.
Speaker 1 (07:21):
Think about all the nuggets that you could give him
going into a weekend if you were, though, that would
be uh yeah, it'd.
Speaker 6 (07:26):
Be way too negative though he If Robert Zala would
have known me personally, he would have hated me because
his record and stuff was not pristine, so we would
not have been on the same pitch.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
Unfortunately, that's a great way to start our Thursday episode
is loaded. We'll get the football conversation going with our
shrimply unbelievable stat of the week courtesy of Action Network
Director of Research Evan Abrams. That man, you heard right.
There got two that I love that are pertinent to
this week. Mahomes two straight up losses as a touchdown
(07:56):
or more favorite since twenty twenty. Both of those losses
are against the Las Vegas Raiders. That's who they play
this weekend. Chiefs eleven and a half point favorites. Also,
not the quarterback that you want to back when he's
favored by a touchdown or more when he's favored by
seven and a half or more. Thirteen twenty four and
one against the spread. So that's one of my favorites.
(08:18):
The Titans, we think are supposed to get the fired
coach bounce here, as Evan mentioned on the Tuesday episode,
not as profitable as it feels. Callahan twenty third coach
to be fired or resigned in season. The prior twenty
two went ten and twelve straight up in the following
game a clean eleven and eleven against the spread. Kendra,
(08:40):
does any of that give you pause? Because your plant
the flag game was on the Tennessee Titans, and I
gave you a good amount of grief for that just
the other day.
Speaker 4 (08:50):
No, I feel actually so good about this, which is
probably terrifying, and I shouldn't feel this.
Speaker 5 (08:56):
Good about it.
Speaker 4 (08:56):
But everyone up here in Boston has been licking Mike
rabels boots all week long, saying Drake May is the best,
and I just cannot I cannot wait for this team
to find a little bit of a level again. They
beat the Bills, beat a bad team. I just there's
no way that they can continue to be the healthiest
(09:17):
team in the league for the rest of the season.
Speaker 5 (09:19):
I hope that they do.
Speaker 4 (09:20):
I never wish injury upon anybody, but they have statistically
been the.
Speaker 5 (09:23):
Healthiest healthiest team in the league this year.
Speaker 4 (09:26):
I think that the only saving grace that they have
right now is Drake May.
Speaker 5 (09:30):
Everything else is in shambles. I get that.
Speaker 4 (09:33):
You know, the Titans are not the best team by
any stretch. They're probably the worst team in the league.
I think we could all mute we all agree with that,
but they've got to find their level a little bit.
Third straight road game. I feel great. I feel so good.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
I think my issue with the Titans play on the
Tuesday episode is it's not so much that it's a
bad bet. I do think that if you're going to
bet the side, the Titans are the right side. So
I'll give you. I'll give you some credit on that.
My issue is that you ran to the window for it.
Why are we running to the window for the Tennessee Titans.
Speaker 4 (10:06):
Because I'm glad that I did. The seven and a
half was no longer there I had. I had to
track a seven in the app today, so we didn't
get that extra half a point.
Speaker 5 (10:15):
That's why I ran to that window.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
All right. I respect it stucky. Anything on that you
want to add as far as those wild stats go
from the primer this week, Yeah, I mean I.
Speaker 2 (10:27):
Do think that there is a coach bounce. I mean,
like there's number one, the coach be fired is usually bad.
That like the ten and twelve straight up is that
you have to look, that's better than expectation. Most of
the times, these are bad teams that are underdogs. So
I mean, for example, if they win this game, that
would be a bit of a major upset. Eleven and
(10:48):
eleven against the spread. Yeah, you're you're around five, and
that's against the clothes. A lot of times these teams
do get back, but I think it depends on the
exact scenario. I think Callahan was so bad that it
can only be better. I think that everyone in that
locker room knew that he was going to get fired. Eventually,
there's you know, maybe just like a sigh of relief
(11:12):
for lack of a better word, there's some new things
that they might implement. So I think it could only
work in their favor. Do I think it's just some
massive edge, No, but things you're talking about the worst
coach in NFL history against the spread from a percentage standpoint,
(11:33):
and that is like the ultimate measure of who a
coach is because I mean, this is a pretty efficient
market in the NFL, and for someone to go four
and twenty against the spread, you know, we know who
the players are, we know who the teams are, Like,
that's an indictment on the coach himself. So yeah, there
(11:54):
are more upsets than you would expect than the next
game following the coach getting fired because that ten and
twelve straight up. Usually, like I said, coach a teen
that fires their coach, usually a really bad team. They
have a really bad record, they don't have a great
team regardless. So yeah, I don't think it's some massive edge.
But in this case, it's no more callahan. I mean
some of the things he would do with at the
end of game, at the end of halfs, at the
(12:15):
end of games, clock management, time out management when kicking
field goals, like not knowing the rules at certain times
for challenges, all of those things stay add up and
it can't be any worse than it was. So I
think in this case that there is some more potential
upside than maybe in some other cases.
Speaker 1 (12:35):
You've been doing this a while, stucky, so maybe you
have some recollection of betting on or against the coach
that's stepping in for him, a guy whose name we
have not mentioned in all of this, because when a
coach gets fired there's an interim. It's Mike McCoy. He
was the head coach of the LA Chargers, the San
Diego Chargers for four seasons. He went nine and twenty
(12:55):
three straight up in his last two years before he
was let go. Do you have any recollection of betting
Mike McCoy games.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
Yeah, I mean, I'm not the biggest Mike McCoy fan,
but like, this is mostly to do with This is
mostly to do just with Like, all you have to
do is be a normal human being and like know
the rules and you'll be better than Callahan. So I
don't think McCoy is some you know, I'm going to
(13:27):
be some amazing head coach. I do remember betting on
him or against him. Was never wowed by him, But
it's just it's it's gonna be difficult to be worse
than Callahan.
Speaker 1 (13:38):
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The Crown is yours a segment that I believe is
a really big dill Hendra. What game has you gonna pickle?
Speaker 7 (14:18):
Okay, we're in a pickle now, I'm really in a
pickle now.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
All right, look we're gonna pickle again.
Speaker 5 (14:26):
We're gonna go with the or off obviously.
Speaker 4 (14:29):
You guys know that I've been loving the Colds this season.
Just everything about them has been so entertaining to me.
And you know that I'm addicted to gambling on the Chargers.
I did not put the Chargers in our parlay this
week as a nominee, so I.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
I'm a conky touchdown last week, So hopefully you had it.
We wouldn't let you bet it.
Speaker 4 (14:48):
No, No, I was in bet jail with lad Conky.
Speaker 5 (14:52):
So this number opened at six, it is currently at
one and a half.
Speaker 4 (14:56):
I think the Chargers are just straight up a bad team,
and I think the col Through a good team, And
the fact that the Colts are getting points makes me
feel like something has to be off here. I mean,
the Chargers went into an absolute battle with the Dolphins
last week, Like what is that? I don't know how
to feel about either of these teams because I keep
feeling like maybe the Colts will come back to the
Colts that we know, but I just think they might
(15:18):
be a good team. I don't know this is I
am in a pickle about this because everything in me
says that I should take take the money and run.
Speaker 5 (15:25):
With the Colts.
Speaker 4 (15:26):
The Chargers are bad. I need to get out of
Chargers jail, but I can't. I'm addicted. Also, it is
the aura off justin Herbert's girlfriend Madison Beer walked in
the Victoria's Secret fashion show last night, So I'm like,
is that does that count for you know a point?
Speaker 5 (15:40):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (15:41):
Do we do we have models on that? Can we
add that to the list of the random things that
we use to get to wagers? Like Moons and such.
Speaker 5 (15:49):
Hey, you hate on the Moon, but that one, okay, that.
Speaker 1 (15:52):
One did cash for us fair point. You have the
Chargers as point and a half favorites in that game.
Call the home field advantage what you will for that one.
I think the Colts are a phenomenal teaser leg. If
you want to bump that up to seven and a
half chef's kiss, I feel like that's the way to
go here. I understand why you are in a pickle.
(16:12):
I will not be betting this game straight stock.
Speaker 2 (16:17):
I'm on the Chargers, one of my favorite bets the weekend,
so I'm sad the friend of them want to go
head to head. But the thing is is that, I mean,
the Chargers should should be getting healthier this weekend. We'll
get a better idea today, but the Colts are a
(16:37):
as of right now. Let me see if there's an
update this morning. But the Colts last week, I mean,
there's a reason I almost lost to Kobe Brissett and
a Cards offense that has done nothing all year and
had all the receivers hurt either before during the game,
and with no rush, no running back slacked. That's because
Tarvari's ward had a concussion. They've been without kennymore they
(16:59):
lost as I mean, you're talking about one of the
worst secondaries in the league. Now in Versette threw all
over them with backup receivers, so you know now and
and Charia's Ward has been arguab with the best corner
in the NFL this year. I doubt that he plays
this weekend. It's not his first concussion. It was it
looked like a bad one, and it happened right before
(17:20):
the game. So this is exactly a week over, and
this is exactly a week after. Kenny Moore hasn't practiced
in weeks. I know that he practiced yesterday, but he's
dealing with an achilles. You're, you know, sitting with a
really good record. So I don't know if he plays.
And if that's the case, I know that the Charter's
offensive line has beat up. They could be healthier this weekend.
(17:44):
It's that the Colts aren't an elite, elite pressure team,
so I just think that, I mean, look at presetted.
I think Herbert will be able to cook enough to
get this done. Also, Daniel Jones, I went back and
watched him. I was like, am I missing some of
thetatoes has obviously been good. His weapons are much better
than they were in New York. His offensive line is
really good, his play caller is really good. But he's
(18:05):
gotten away with a lot of throws. He's not really
seeing safeties and that's not ideal against a mentor defense.
I think that there could be some turnovers coming for
Daniel Jones this week. I mean, his turnover worthy play
rate is more than double Justin Herberts, who has one
of the lowest in NFL history, one of the lowest
(18:25):
interception rates of any quarterback in NFL history. So I
think you might Chargers potential to look the Colts are
going to run on them a bit, but it's the
potential that they can get one or two more turnovers.
And this is in the weeds, but the Chargers have
the most accurate kicker in NFL history and in Cameron Dicker,
and the Colts have the money badger who's like a
(18:46):
eighty percent career. So there could be one or two
more miskicks from the Colts. But the main thing here
is the secondary injuries. I also think Daniel Jones is
due for a couple interceptions that could swing this game.
I like the Chargers played them on a cheap money line.
I think they get it done at home. That the
secondary injuries are major, and if you think about it,
(19:09):
the Colts this year they have wins over let's see,
like and look, I think the Colts are a good team.
Do I think that they're elite? No? But they beat
They beat Tua, They beat the bo Knicks thanks to
a leaping penalty. They beat cam Ward and the Titans,
(19:30):
Gino and the Raiders, and Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals.
I mean, what are we saying, like five of the
seven worst quarterbacks in the NFL. So yeah, I like
the Chargers, So.
Speaker 1 (19:44):
This won't help any sort of Colts love the We
do this every week on Thursday because it has been profitable.
Last year, not as much. The public side was winning
a lot. This year it's bouncing back the other way.
Teams with sixty percent or more of the tickets this
season fifteen and thirty six against the spread through six games.
(20:06):
That is the worst ATS mark for public betters in
twenty three years of the database held by Action Network. What.
I don't know if anybody skipped ahead here? Does anyone
want to take a guess at the most public side
this week in the NFL.
Speaker 5 (20:23):
Kendra oh I just read this. It's the Cults.
Speaker 1 (20:29):
It is eighty two percent of the bets are on
the Indianapolis Colts.
Speaker 2 (20:35):
Josh Down's also DNP with a concussion, so he's probably
not going to go that's big too. He's been great.
Speaker 1 (20:40):
So did that unpickle you at all?
Speaker 4 (20:45):
No?
Speaker 5 (20:45):
I don't think it did. I wish that it did,
but it didn't.
Speaker 1 (20:48):
The other teams that are out there that are heavy
public sides to be aware of. The Giants as road
dogs against the Denver Broncos, seventy seven percent of the
bets the Falcons. I want to pause on that one
for a second. Seventy six percent of the bets against
the San Francisco forty nine Ers. The Falcons looked awesome
against the Buffalo Bills. Primetime dogs that come through and
(21:13):
win and look as incredible as the Falcons did against
a really good team in the Buffalo Bills. I think
the idea is you don't want to get sucked into that,
and that's the kind of team that you maybe want
to lean off of in the following week. But the
forty nine ers have some real issues. They were barely
(21:34):
getting by with Nick Bosa out. Now Fred Warner is missing,
the middle of that defense is just ravaged. Atlanta, I think,
is a better team, and the fact that you're getting
two and a half with them, I feel like we
should betting the Falcons. But what am I missing here? Stuckey?
Have you taken a side on forty nine ers Falcons?
Because it feels like we haven't come fully around market wise,
(21:58):
power rating wise to to how good this Falcons team
might actually be.
Speaker 2 (22:03):
No, I need more clarity on the injury report, but
under three, I mean, like I think that like one
is probably right, it's not. It's a tough spot for
Atlanta going cross country to play in San Francisco after
a huge win on Monday night. Left tackle that's the
big news. I know that San Francisco's defense is and
their pressure rate is basically diminished to nothing without Bosa.
(22:25):
The trickle down effect there is huge. And then you
don't have Fred Warner. It was the Stars and Scrubs
team regardless because they had to pay party and they
were just the defense was uber relyant on Warner and Bosa.
Now you don't have either. The offense is dealing with
a ton of injuries, so we'll see who ends up
playing on that side of the ball. The one to
(22:46):
watch for the Falcons is their left tackle, Jake Matthews,
who has the longest active streak of any longest active
star streak of any player in the NFL. Right now.
They're already missing their right tackle and their offensive line
has been good, but they're kind they kind of scheme
to that if they're missing their left tackle too. In
his back up, Mike Durrell's horrendous and was really really
(23:08):
bad in the second half against the Bills, which is
why the Falcons one of the reasons the Falcons offense
just didn't look the same in that second half. So
that's something to keep an eye on. He was listed
his day to day, but there's a lot of injuries
in that game. It's not a great spot for the Falcons.
I do love the Falcons, but ultimately a game I
might stay. I think it's a good teaser piece, So
(23:32):
if you're looking for another teaser piece, I would look
at the Falcons that get them up over eight, crossing
the three and seven.
Speaker 1 (23:42):
And I feel like for those out there, I look
at these numbers, these percentages when they when they are
this outrageous with this many of the bets tilted towards
one side. It should give you pause. It should give
you pause in general, and it should definitely give you
pause this year with the numbers that we're seeing. At
some point Stucky has mentioned this, it swings back in
(24:03):
the other direction. But there's a reason why it's hard
to beat the NFL, because most people just believe what
they see and they roll with it. You know, I've
been caught up in that trap as well. I think
if you love these these heavy public sides and their dogs,
put two together, teaser that up and we've seen a
lot of close games lately. Colts Cowboys are a nice
(24:25):
combo for me. Colts Falcons would be another. Before we
move off of this completely, Evan, you wrote about this
in the primer this week, teams off of an outright
win as a dog in primetime, like the Falcons against
the Bills, who play in primetime again the following week.
This is the Sunday night football game fifty nine percent
against the spread. I was shocked when I read that.
(24:46):
Were you surprised as you discovered that that bit of
data that those teams actually perform well the following week.
Speaker 6 (24:53):
Yeah, I mean, I just think it's normal narrative to
assume the opposite, which is kind of what I tend
to look for when doing these things. Like I think
it was a last week with the Bengals and the Packers.
It's like team loses three straight, other team favored by
this many points. Normal person looks at the slate, looks
at the games as oh, Packers have to cover.
Speaker 7 (25:12):
Well, it's like forty two percent last twenty years.
Speaker 6 (25:14):
Like things like that I think are the fun aspects
of what we do week to week. And same situation here,
Like most people look at something and make an assumption
and sometimes it's right, but in this one it was
kind of fun. I mean, small sample, it was like,
what forty five games, and we're talking about like eight
or nine games either way, especially when you have some
pushes on the cover side.
Speaker 7 (25:34):
I mean, I think.
Speaker 6 (25:36):
Margin probably tells more of a story there, which I
don't have in the copy, but I can look it up, so.
Speaker 7 (25:41):
That would be my initial thought. But yeah, interesting.
Speaker 1 (25:43):
Nonetheless, Dolphins, Patriots, Cowboys, Seahawks, Saints, Panthers, Eagles also on
that list above sixty percent. That's the threshold that I'm
looking for. For this head to actionnetwork dot com. You
can look at all of this stuff on your own
as well. By the way, the Luck Rankings point us
in a couple of directions this week, shout out to
Nick Giffin. If you're not checking out the luck rankings
(26:04):
on the website, you're doing yourself a major disservice. Saints
plus five and a half and what could be a
weather game. I think there's supposed to be some heavy
rain in Chicago. Lions minus five against the Bucks. That's
one that I am very interested in. I might try
and even tee that up to you guys when we
do our parlay. Jets plus one and a half against
Carolina Kendra, this is one that I cannot get behind.
(26:27):
There's no way I could back the New York Jets
flew back from London, didn't take the buy. Garrett Wilson
is out. The luck rankings are saying that on the side,
but no. I got in on the Panthers early. I'll
just sit with a light. I have a Panthers plus one.
I'm just gonna let that ride see how it goes.
Speaker 4 (26:46):
But I'm also on the Panthers this week it's an
option for our two Kings and a Queen because we
are a lot of us were opposite for a lot
of things this week, so I had to find things
that we wouldn't fight about.
Speaker 1 (26:58):
Well, this might be a good week for us as
far as going head to head, and I could use
a couple of wins in that regard. So let's get
to it. It's time for the reason you all came
here today, Two Kings and a Queen parlay. I let
us down last week. We hit two of our three.
Time to get back on the horse, find some winners,
four reminders. We each nominate two plays. We see if
(27:18):
we can find some general consensus on the board, will
battle if we have to, and eventually land on our
two Kings and a Queen parlay, which we'll have in
the app after the episode. Kendra, we'll start with you Chargers.
Speaker 4 (27:41):
My line, No I been Gifford put that in a year,
which is so funny because low key usually that's the play. However,
I like the Panthers were one of my nominations. I
also have the Over and the Seahawks Texans game at
forty one or if you guys want to stick with
my Titans play.
Speaker 5 (28:00):
I'm okay with that as well.
Speaker 1 (28:02):
I don't know if I like that. That's a really
low number. These are two of the slower paced teams.
They are bottom ten, bottom seven in fact, in terms
of positions or plays per game rather, so I don't
know if I love that. And the Texans and Seahawks
have really good defenses. I would like the Panthers. Was
that an option?
Speaker 5 (28:22):
Yes, Panthers are an option. We can do.
Speaker 1 (28:24):
What would be the Panthers?
Speaker 5 (28:25):
Do we want to do?
Speaker 4 (28:25):
Panthers money line? I don't know what the price is.
I'd have to look really quick, but.
Speaker 1 (28:29):
I think I think Panthers.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
I'm gonna I'm I might have avn't come in and
the I'm videoing Panthers. I mean the Panthers now they're
they're favored. I mean, in order to show value on them,
I need to make the Panthers like three points I
have four points better than the Jets on a neutral
field like this is a non divisional, non conference road game,
(28:54):
like I get no Garrett Wilson, which hurts, but this
is also like look at luck rankings game by Like
my overarching principle in the NFL is by low sell
high like Panthers are, and the Panthers are just not
the same team on the road. They've been dreadful on
the road. Bryce Young's numbers fall off a cliff on
the road, but they've won a couple of games in
(29:16):
a row. The Jets are over. Historically, betting these over
teams has been profitable, very profitable when no one wants
to back them. I mean, look at last week. No
one wanted to bet the Jets against the Broncos, and
they arguably should have won even with negative ten passing yards.
So I can't get there. I can't. I can't do
the Panthers.
Speaker 4 (29:36):
I will.
Speaker 2 (29:38):
It's either the Panthers or I mean, I would vote
for I don't. There's too much I don't know about
the Seahawks, secondary injuries, for.
Speaker 4 (29:48):
People stucky in a blunder with this every single weeks.
Speaker 1 (29:53):
I think I don't. I don't like the Titans bet,
but I will say we've talked more about that game
than any other this week. I feel like it would
be on brand for us to see this play out
on the parlay itself.
Speaker 5 (30:07):
So I think I want to choose.
Speaker 2 (30:08):
Yeah, Evant has to choose. Panthers are Titans.
Speaker 7 (30:11):
Yeah, it's Titans. There's no question. I want nothing to do.
Speaker 6 (30:14):
I don't want to watch the Jets game like I
just it's Titans.
Speaker 7 (30:18):
We gotta go with. I mean, the seven and a
half you got early.
Speaker 6 (30:22):
Week could be important in a game where Tennessee may
score negative points.
Speaker 7 (30:26):
But we will see what happens, all right, Man.
Speaker 5 (30:30):
Ham Ward coming out party this Sunday.
Speaker 1 (30:35):
Kendrill loves trolling her own market. That's one thing I do.
Speaker 5 (30:38):
I'm addicted. It's okay. I was born to troll, and
that's what I do.
Speaker 1 (30:43):
Stucky, what do you got.
Speaker 2 (30:44):
H Well, one of the one of mine I saw
it was one of yours was gonna be the Browns
money line.
Speaker 1 (30:51):
Does that mean that we auto play that one in
the parlay?
Speaker 2 (30:55):
Yeah? So that's that's gonna be years. I mean you
said you like the Raiders too, but I mean the
Raiders are mess. No brock Bowers, no Colton Miller. They're
so poorly coached.
Speaker 1 (31:04):
Chie. I would like to also, I you know it's
supposed to be too. I'm gonna break my own rules here,
but I would also want to nominate the Lions so
I could make a case for them.
Speaker 5 (31:13):
Also, I did three, you can do three.
Speaker 1 (31:16):
Yeah, I might.
Speaker 2 (31:20):
Left in the secondaries and the Bucks have no I mean,
I don't know how that game is going to play out.
So yeah, I like the Browns money line. I'll bank
my case for that now, just for I guess the content.
But look, what do the Dolphins have like? They don't.
They have nothing. They've one of the worst defenses in
the NFL. Their run defense is one of the three worst.
(31:40):
Their secondaries arguably the worst. They're blitzing at the top
five R eight, and Gabriel Lease has been good against the
blitz throughout his college Crewers. He was elite, one of
the best quarterbacks in college football history against the blitz.
But they're blitzing at the top five right They're getting
pressure at the bottom five or eight. Their offense doesn't
have Tyreek kill. They've one of the worst offensive lines
in the NFL. They're not even hitting explosive past plays anymore,
(32:00):
which is the one area where you have to beat
the Browns defense.
Speaker 5 (32:03):
Still scoring points though, if the.
Speaker 2 (32:05):
Browns defense at home doesn't give up points to anybody,
I mean, they just shut down the Packers. They let
this defense at home.
Speaker 5 (32:11):
I think people oversold the Packers, though.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
There still have a great offense, so they shut down
everyone who goes to Baltimore, having who goes to Cleveland.
You talk about I mean Joe Burrow and that Bengals
offense did absolutely nothing. The Packers offense did absolutely nothing.
You go back to the last couple of years, even
when the Browns defense was worse like last year they
(32:37):
had down here at home, they were still dominant. And
then there's gonna be weather in this game. So who
do I want. I want the team that could run
the ball, and the Browns have a top three rush D.
Like I said before, the Dolphins have a bottom three
rush D. To it, this ain't gonna be under fire
within as soon as he snaps the ball and there's
(32:57):
no Tyreek Hill, the Browns can play their deep here.
I think they'll do enough on the ground and win
an ugly one. That's why I like the Browns. But
my two two choices that I'll offer up are the Chargers.
Already made my case there, and then we'll do the
Vikings money line. I already made my case earlier the
(33:17):
week on plant the flag.
Speaker 5 (33:20):
On the Eagles, So it's got to be the Chargers.
Speaker 2 (33:23):
So yeah, my case for the Vikings. I mean, if
you watch the Eagles, this offense is broken. Kevin Pittula
cannot figure out how to go against the zone or
a blitz. Well, you're going up against the most blitz
heavy defensive coordinator and the most zone heavy defense in
the league this year, and that's been a problem for
(33:44):
Hurts throughout his career. Very good against the man, very
good against the man, coverage poor against zone this year.
Is the worst quarterback in the league against Cover two.
Guess what, Vikings running more Cover two than any other
team in the NFL. And on the other side of
the ball, Quenon Mitchell's hurt, the Eagles don't have a
corner j Jalen Carter's banged up. Their defense isn't getting pressure.
I mean, this is a defense that's below average. Their
nineteenth and success rate nineteenth and EPA pri play Vikings
(34:07):
with an elite staff off of bye, one of the
hardest places to play at in the NFL. I assume
it's going to be Carson Wentz at quarterback. The Eagles
don't have anyone to cover their receivers. They're not even
defending the run well. Saquon Barkley can't even get going
because the offensive line is hurt. I mean, this is
a guy who's getting tackled behind the line of scrimmage
on thirty six percent of his carries. Last year was
(34:29):
twenty four this year it's the second most in the NFL.
I could keep on going, but this Eagles offense is
broken right now. So it's either Vikings will say plus
plus one and a half at DraftKings or the Chargers
money line. You say Chargers, Kendra, no shot there? What
do you say, Brandon?
Speaker 1 (34:51):
I know we like to claim that we're a Jags podcast,
but low key we're kind of a Chargers podcast because
they're on the Parlay every week. I feel like I
want to get them off just because I'm tired of
seeing the Chargers on there. Even though I agree with
your points, I love the Vikings place, So my vote
would be on Minnesota on the Eagles.
Speaker 5 (35:09):
It can't be. So Evan's going to have to be
the voice of god.
Speaker 2 (35:12):
Chargers money line or Vikings plus one and a half.
Speaker 6 (35:15):
Don't you think it says something that I'm needed in
every one of these conversations.
Speaker 7 (35:19):
This podcast is absolutely incredible. But I will say Chargers
is the bet. It's always the Chargers. Yeah right, I
think the Chargers on the right side this week.
Speaker 1 (35:26):
Yeah, we can't off of this team.
Speaker 7 (35:29):
Dude, listen.
Speaker 6 (35:30):
I can't do anything but fade Daniel Jones and the
Colts until something happens to that team. And if I'm
wrong and we go to the super Bowl with the Colts,
that's going to be what it ends up having to happen.
Can't do anything about it.
Speaker 5 (35:41):
This is the Chargers podcast.
Speaker 1 (35:42):
It's always Chargers money line too. I don't think we've
taken a Chargers spread yet.
Speaker 6 (35:48):
Points with the Chargers, but you can assume hardball will
get the win. That's how they work.
Speaker 2 (35:51):
Chargers went by one on a missed honey Honey Badger,
not honey money badger. Extra point. So Titans plus seven,
Brown's money line, Chargers money line pays right around five
to one at DK.
Speaker 1 (36:07):
I dig it and Evan, I appreciate the podcast review.
Go ahead and leave five stars while you're at it. Okay,
thank yourself. Useful over there. Chargers money line, Brown's Brown's
money Line, and Titans plus do we get seven or
seven and a half?
Speaker 3 (36:24):
Stucky seven?
Speaker 4 (36:26):
All right, there's no seven and a half left. I
saw a bunch of people commenting on our video the
other day like where's the seven and a half, And
it's like, okay, well you better listen on time if
you want the better numbers. You ask why I got
to the window so early.
Speaker 5 (36:37):
Don't get out at me, sister.
Speaker 1 (36:39):
We're live on YouTube. Go and check us out. Two
Kings and a Queen Parlay presented by DraftKings. That'll do
it for this week's episode special thanks to our producers
Gifford Gold and David Payne. Evan Abrams busy leaving us
a five star review. You can do the exact same
thing wherever you download your favorite podcast, The Favorites. We'll
return on Sunday night. We have a recap episode Guys
(37:00):
seven right here on the Action Network YouTube page. Thanks
for tuning in. We'll be back here next time on
The Favorites podcast presented by DraftKings.
Speaker 3 (37:08):
Let's Catch these tickets.
Speaker 1 (37:19):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem.
Speaker 5 (37:26):
Help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred Gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined by my Faves and your faves,
Kendra and Stucky. Week seven in the NFL is upon us,
and we've got plays for this week. On today's show,
we will submit those official plays. Two Kings and a
Queen Parlay. I gotta come through for the group. I
(00:32):
left us hanging last week. Some public darlings that you
need to be aware of. Like and subscribe wherever it
is that you are tuned in, hopefully everybody on this podcast.
Stucky got ample sleep this week. Great call by you.
By the way, FIU cashed on a Tuesday night, so
got us off to a good start this week. Thank you.
Tip of the cap to you, my friend.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
Yeah, it's always nice when it can get get an
easy one like a ten point dog that one by
But uh yeah that was in the past and now
no sleep here. We're hopefully into a weekend full of winters,
so let's let's get to it.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
Yeah, we got a lot to get to but before
we do, it's a Thursday tradition, Stucky for you to
ask us your random question of the week. I feel
mentally sharp and ready, so give it to us.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
Hey, this is a dumb question.
Speaker 2 (01:25):
Let me ask you a personal question kind of question?
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Is that is question?
Speaker 4 (01:31):
All right?
Speaker 2 (01:31):
What was your most No, you can't answer any no
feat related answers.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
What was he's talking to you?
Speaker 2 (01:40):
What was your most random or end or funniest job
that you've ever had?
Speaker 4 (01:47):
Okay, first of all, I'd like it to be known
that stuck you brought up the feet the first time,
not me, but most randomed.
Speaker 5 (01:53):
I was Robert Salis nanny for a while. Does that count?
Is that random?
Speaker 6 (01:57):
You?
Speaker 5 (01:58):
Robert Salas nanny?
Speaker 1 (02:00):
You were?
Speaker 2 (02:01):
Yeah, that counts, yes, answer.
Speaker 5 (02:06):
But I was like the coolest lady I've ever met.
I'm obsessed with her.
Speaker 4 (02:09):
She literally just used to have become nanny so they
could go on dates and she could go get her
eyelashes done.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
That's where did he live.
Speaker 5 (02:17):
When he was in Jacksonville?
Speaker 2 (02:18):
Do you have any any uh no, dirt on him?
Was he messing?
Speaker 4 (02:22):
Now?
Speaker 5 (02:24):
No, he's bess.
Speaker 4 (02:25):
I genuinely when that whole beef happened with him and
Liam Cohen, I was shocked because, yeah, he's like a
big tough guy, but like he's the.
Speaker 5 (02:31):
Nicest guy I've ever met.
Speaker 4 (02:32):
Would come in talk football with me, talk about the kids,
like his wife was really cool. I was so shocked
when that whole thing went down, because they're just like
the coolest, most clean sheet normal family ever come to you. Family,
so many kids, so many kids. I think they've been
together since like high school.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
How did you get that gig?
Speaker 5 (02:51):
Literally?
Speaker 4 (02:52):
I was on one of the like babysitting websites, and
I had just ended my prior nannying job and was
looking for another name job.
Speaker 5 (03:00):
I didn't want to work in retail again.
Speaker 4 (03:02):
Or whatever, And she hit me up and I start
watching their kids and one day Robert just walks in
and I'm like, wait a second, what.
Speaker 5 (03:10):
I didn't even know that he.
Speaker 4 (03:11):
Was like their dad or anything because he was gone
so much. And one day he like did a swapover
for the kids for me, and he walked in and
I was like, I know you that's amazing.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Wow.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
Yeah, the can't beat that one stuck.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
I think, yeah, I don't. I don't know how I'm
gonna beat that.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
What was the exact phrasing of the question, is.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
The most random, your funniest job you've had?
Speaker 1 (03:34):
Pretty random? My first job while I was in high school,
I got a job at a dollar store in Coral Springs,
Florida called just a Buck, and I worked my way
up to be the assistant night manager of the dollar store.
What a clusterfuck that is. If God bless anybody out
(03:54):
there listening that works in a dollar store, it is
a total disaster between the inventory and the because there's
a trillion items and the dirt that walks into those stores.
It's awful. And I was sixteen, so that was that
was pretty random. I also worked at the I was
a bartender for a while. I worked at the ice
bar in Orlando, so I used to actually work in
(04:15):
the actual ice portion, so it was like thirty degree weather.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
That was a tough one.
Speaker 2 (04:20):
Yeah, manager at a dollar store, that is That is
very random. I'll say I have two answers. In high school,
I got a lot of trouble a lot, so my
dad made me work for his friend who in this
summer to pay off some legal bills for he was
(04:43):
in concrete foundation. So like pouring concrete, taking down the slat.
That was miserable. That's when I found out I did
not want to be in manual labor. I mean I
always knew that, but that that confirmed it. That was tough,
but the most random, That was the hardest, most random.
I worked in the winter my friends when I was
(05:05):
in high school. My friend's family owned a cut your
own Christmas tree farm and people would come and cut
their own Christmas trees this huge farm in the summer.
A couple of days we would go out and plant
them all and then people will come. But not everyone
(05:26):
could cut them on their own, so sometimes you'd have
to go out with them, walk out, cut them, and
then come back bail them, load them up onto their car.
That was probably the most Yeah, that was probably the
most random job that I've ever had, a working at
a cut your own Christmas tree farm in the winter.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
The concrete slab one though that the person who runs
that that business is definitely in the mob, right, Yeah,
we would have we would.
Speaker 2 (05:52):
Have like runnings with like unions in Philly, Like when
we were on a job where they didn't hire the unions,
like the unions would be upset. And I mean I
was just a sixteen year old kid, but uh, it
was definitely an Italian and I'll say I'll say that,
but yeah, that was miserable work. I mean that was
hard work. You had to go. You got to you
(06:16):
poured the concrete, and then then you would first you
would put up the the big panels and they would
be covered in concrete. You'd have to carry them around.
The next day you would go. You'd have to take
them down, carry them, put them, stack them up, get
the crane would come, you'd have to put them. Oh
my god, it was absolutely miserable work. I don't know
(06:38):
how people's like backs. People guys have been doing it
for like twenty years. I don't know how they saw
backs left. I was a sixteen year old kid dying
every day.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
So should have just been selling your feet picks. Then
you wouldn't have had to do any of that.
Speaker 4 (06:48):
Yeah, if only I know it's never me, it's never
me bringing it up.
Speaker 5 (06:51):
I would just like that on the record.
Speaker 1 (06:52):
I didn't say anything about Kendra.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
That was just all right. Ken was the winner of
that this week's question because Robert sawah Nanny that ties
into the NFL beat, So you're the winner.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
You can't beat that, Evan, do you do you want
to try and top that or you want to sit
this one out?
Speaker 4 (07:10):
No?
Speaker 6 (07:10):
I mean construction would have been my answer. I mean,
I've been working in sports information and gambling for way
too long to have something as.
Speaker 7 (07:16):
Interesting as being the nanny of Robert Sala.
Speaker 6 (07:19):
I can't beat that one iota.
Speaker 1 (07:21):
Think about all the nuggets that you could give him
going into a weekend if you were, though, that would
be uh yeah, it'd.
Speaker 6 (07:26):
Be way too negative though he If Robert Zala would
have known me personally, he would have hated me because
his record and stuff was not pristine, so we would
not have been on the same pitch.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
Unfortunately, that's a great way to start our Thursday episode
is loaded. We'll get the football conversation going with our
shrimply unbelievable stat of the week courtesy of Action Network
Director of Research Evan Abrams. That man, you heard right.
There got two that I love that are pertinent to
this week. Mahomes two straight up losses as a touchdown
(07:56):
or more favorite since twenty twenty. Both of those losses
are against the Las Vegas Raiders. That's who they play
this weekend. Chiefs eleven and a half point favorites. Also,
not the quarterback that you want to back when he's
favored by a touchdown or more when he's favored by
seven and a half or more. Thirteen twenty four and
one against the spread. So that's one of my favorites.
(08:18):
The Titans, we think are supposed to get the fired
coach bounce here, as Evan mentioned on the Tuesday episode,
not as profitable as it feels. Callahan twenty third coach
to be fired or resigned in season. The prior twenty
two went ten and twelve straight up in the following
game a clean eleven and eleven against the spread. Kendra,
(08:40):
does any of that give you pause? Because your plant
the flag game was on the Tennessee Titans, and I
gave you a good amount of grief for that just
the other day.
Speaker 4 (08:50):
No, I feel actually so good about this, which is
probably terrifying, and I shouldn't feel this.
Speaker 5 (08:56):
Good about it.
Speaker 4 (08:56):
But everyone up here in Boston has been licking Mike
rabels boots all week long, saying Drake May is the best,
and I just cannot I cannot wait for this team
to find a little bit of a level again. They
beat the Bills, beat a bad team. I just there's
no way that they can continue to be the healthiest
(09:17):
team in the league for the rest of the season.
Speaker 5 (09:19):
I hope that they do.
Speaker 4 (09:20):
I never wish injury upon anybody, but they have statistically
been the.
Speaker 5 (09:23):
Healthiest healthiest team in the league this year.
Speaker 4 (09:26):
I think that the only saving grace that they have
right now is Drake May.
Speaker 5 (09:30):
Everything else is in shambles. I get that.
Speaker 4 (09:33):
You know, the Titans are not the best team by
any stretch. They're probably the worst team in the league.
I think we could all mute we all agree with that,
but they've got to find their level a little bit.
Third straight road game. I feel great. I feel so good.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
I think my issue with the Titans play on the
Tuesday episode is it's not so much that it's a
bad bet. I do think that if you're going to
bet the side, the Titans are the right side. So
I'll give you. I'll give you some credit on that.
My issue is that you ran to the window for it.
Why are we running to the window for the Tennessee Titans.
Speaker 4 (10:06):
Because I'm glad that I did. The seven and a
half was no longer there I had. I had to
track a seven in the app today, so we didn't
get that extra half a point.
Speaker 5 (10:15):
That's why I ran to that window.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
All right. I respect it stucky. Anything on that you
want to add as far as those wild stats go
from the primer this week, Yeah, I mean I.
Speaker 2 (10:27):
Do think that there is a coach bounce. I mean,
like there's number one, the coach be fired is usually bad.
That like the ten and twelve straight up is that
you have to look, that's better than expectation. Most of
the times, these are bad teams that are underdogs. So
I mean, for example, if they win this game, that
would be a bit of a major upset. Eleven and
(10:48):
eleven against the spread. Yeah, you're you're around five, and
that's against the clothes. A lot of times these teams
do get back, but I think it depends on the
exact scenario. I think Callahan was so bad that it
can only be better. I think that everyone in that
locker room knew that he was going to get fired. Eventually,
there's you know, maybe just like a sigh of relief
(11:12):
for lack of a better word, there's some new things
that they might implement. So I think it could only
work in their favor. Do I think it's just some
massive edge, No, but things you're talking about the worst
coach in NFL history against the spread from a percentage standpoint,
(11:33):
and that is like the ultimate measure of who a
coach is because I mean, this is a pretty efficient
market in the NFL, and for someone to go four
and twenty against the spread, you know, we know who
the players are, we know who the teams are, Like,
that's an indictment on the coach himself. So yeah, there
(11:54):
are more upsets than you would expect than the next
game following the coach getting fired because that ten and
twelve straight up. Usually, like I said, coach a teen
that fires their coach, usually a really bad team. They
have a really bad record, they don't have a great
team regardless. So yeah, I don't think it's some massive edge.
But in this case, it's no more callahan. I mean
some of the things he would do with at the
end of game, at the end of halfs, at the
(12:15):
end of games, clock management, time out management when kicking
field goals, like not knowing the rules at certain times
for challenges, all of those things stay add up and
it can't be any worse than it was. So I
think in this case that there is some more potential
upside than maybe in some other cases.
Speaker 1 (12:35):
You've been doing this a while, stucky, so maybe you
have some recollection of betting on or against the coach
that's stepping in for him, a guy whose name we
have not mentioned in all of this, because when a
coach gets fired there's an interim. It's Mike McCoy. He
was the head coach of the LA Chargers, the San
Diego Chargers for four seasons. He went nine and twenty
(12:55):
three straight up in his last two years before he
was let go. Do you have any recollection of betting
Mike McCoy games.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
Yeah, I mean, I'm not the biggest Mike McCoy fan,
but like, this is mostly to do with This is
mostly to do just with Like, all you have to
do is be a normal human being and like know
the rules and you'll be better than Callahan. So I
don't think McCoy is some you know, I'm going to
(13:27):
be some amazing head coach. I do remember betting on
him or against him. Was never wowed by him, But
it's just it's it's gonna be difficult to be worse
than Callahan.
Speaker 1 (13:38):
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The Crown is yours a segment that I believe is
a really big dill Hendra. What game has you gonna pickle?
Speaker 7 (14:18):
Okay, we're in a pickle now, I'm really in a
pickle now.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
All right, look we're gonna pickle again.
Speaker 5 (14:26):
We're gonna go with the or off obviously.
Speaker 4 (14:29):
You guys know that I've been loving the Colds this season.
Just everything about them has been so entertaining to me.
And you know that I'm addicted to gambling on the Chargers.
I did not put the Chargers in our parlay this
week as a nominee, so I.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
I'm a conky touchdown last week, So hopefully you had it.
We wouldn't let you bet it.
Speaker 4 (14:48):
No, No, I was in bet jail with lad Conky.
Speaker 5 (14:52):
So this number opened at six, it is currently at
one and a half.
Speaker 4 (14:56):
I think the Chargers are just straight up a bad team,
and I think the col Through a good team, And
the fact that the Colts are getting points makes me
feel like something has to be off here. I mean,
the Chargers went into an absolute battle with the Dolphins
last week, Like what is that? I don't know how
to feel about either of these teams because I keep
feeling like maybe the Colts will come back to the
Colts that we know, but I just think they might
(15:18):
be a good team. I don't know this is I
am in a pickle about this because everything in me
says that I should take take the money and run.
Speaker 5 (15:25):
With the Colts.
Speaker 4 (15:26):
The Chargers are bad. I need to get out of
Chargers jail, but I can't. I'm addicted. Also, it is
the aura off justin Herbert's girlfriend Madison Beer walked in
the Victoria's Secret fashion show last night, So I'm like,
is that does that count for you know a point?
Speaker 5 (15:40):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (15:41):
Do we do we have models on that? Can we
add that to the list of the random things that
we use to get to wagers? Like Moons and such.
Speaker 5 (15:49):
Hey, you hate on the Moon, but that one, okay, that.
Speaker 1 (15:52):
One did cash for us fair point. You have the
Chargers as point and a half favorites in that game.
Call the home field advantage what you will for that one.
I think the Colts are a phenomenal teaser leg. If
you want to bump that up to seven and a
half chef's kiss, I feel like that's the way to
go here. I understand why you are in a pickle.
(16:12):
I will not be betting this game straight stock.
Speaker 2 (16:17):
I'm on the Chargers, one of my favorite bets the weekend,
so I'm sad the friend of them want to go
head to head. But the thing is is that, I mean,
the Chargers should should be getting healthier this weekend. We'll
get a better idea today, but the Colts are a
(16:37):
as of right now. Let me see if there's an
update this morning. But the Colts last week, I mean,
there's a reason I almost lost to Kobe Brissett and
a Cards offense that has done nothing all year and
had all the receivers hurt either before during the game,
and with no rush, no running back slacked. That's because
Tarvari's ward had a concussion. They've been without kennymore they
(16:59):
lost as I mean, you're talking about one of the
worst secondaries in the league. Now in Versette threw all
over them with backup receivers, so you know now and
and Charia's Ward has been arguab with the best corner
in the NFL this year. I doubt that he plays
this weekend. It's not his first concussion. It was it
looked like a bad one, and it happened right before
(17:20):
the game. So this is exactly a week over, and
this is exactly a week after. Kenny Moore hasn't practiced
in weeks. I know that he practiced yesterday, but he's
dealing with an achilles. You're, you know, sitting with a
really good record. So I don't know if he plays.
And if that's the case, I know that the Charter's
offensive line has beat up. They could be healthier this weekend.
(17:44):
It's that the Colts aren't an elite, elite pressure team,
so I just think that, I mean, look at presetted.
I think Herbert will be able to cook enough to
get this done. Also, Daniel Jones, I went back and
watched him. I was like, am I missing some of
thetatoes has obviously been good. His weapons are much better
than they were in New York. His offensive line is
really good, his play caller is really good. But he's
(18:05):
gotten away with a lot of throws. He's not really
seeing safeties and that's not ideal against a mentor defense.
I think that there could be some turnovers coming for
Daniel Jones this week. I mean, his turnover worthy play
rate is more than double Justin Herberts, who has one
of the lowest in NFL history, one of the lowest
(18:25):
interception rates of any quarterback in NFL history. So I
think you might Chargers potential to look the Colts are
going to run on them a bit, but it's the
potential that they can get one or two more turnovers.
And this is in the weeds, but the Chargers have
the most accurate kicker in NFL history and in Cameron Dicker,
and the Colts have the money badger who's like a
(18:46):
eighty percent career. So there could be one or two
more miskicks from the Colts. But the main thing here
is the secondary injuries. I also think Daniel Jones is
due for a couple interceptions that could swing this game.
I like the Chargers played them on a cheap money line.
I think they get it done at home. That the
secondary injuries are major, and if you think about it,
(19:09):
the Colts this year they have wins over let's see,
like and look, I think the Colts are a good team.
Do I think that they're elite? No? But they beat
They beat Tua, They beat the bo Knicks thanks to
a leaping penalty. They beat cam Ward and the Titans,
(19:30):
Gino and the Raiders, and Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals.
I mean, what are we saying, like five of the
seven worst quarterbacks in the NFL. So yeah, I like
the Chargers, So.
Speaker 1 (19:44):
This won't help any sort of Colts love the We
do this every week on Thursday because it has been profitable.
Last year, not as much. The public side was winning
a lot. This year it's bouncing back the other way.
Teams with sixty percent or more of the tickets this
season fifteen and thirty six against the spread through six games.
(20:06):
That is the worst ATS mark for public betters in
twenty three years of the database held by Action Network. What.
I don't know if anybody skipped ahead here? Does anyone
want to take a guess at the most public side
this week in the NFL.
Speaker 5 (20:23):
Kendra oh I just read this. It's the Cults.
Speaker 1 (20:29):
It is eighty two percent of the bets are on
the Indianapolis Colts.
Speaker 2 (20:35):
Josh Down's also DNP with a concussion, so he's probably
not going to go that's big too. He's been great.
Speaker 1 (20:40):
So did that unpickle you at all?
Speaker 4 (20:45):
No?
Speaker 5 (20:45):
I don't think it did. I wish that it did,
but it didn't.
Speaker 1 (20:48):
The other teams that are out there that are heavy
public sides to be aware of. The Giants as road
dogs against the Denver Broncos, seventy seven percent of the
bets the Falcons. I want to pause on that one
for a second. Seventy six percent of the bets against
the San Francisco forty nine Ers. The Falcons looked awesome
against the Buffalo Bills. Primetime dogs that come through and
(21:13):
win and look as incredible as the Falcons did against
a really good team in the Buffalo Bills. I think
the idea is you don't want to get sucked into that,
and that's the kind of team that you maybe want
to lean off of in the following week. But the
forty nine ers have some real issues. They were barely
(21:34):
getting by with Nick Bosa out. Now Fred Warner is missing,
the middle of that defense is just ravaged. Atlanta, I think,
is a better team, and the fact that you're getting
two and a half with them, I feel like we
should betting the Falcons. But what am I missing here? Stuckey?
Have you taken a side on forty nine ers Falcons?
Because it feels like we haven't come fully around market wise,
(21:58):
power rating wise to to how good this Falcons team
might actually be.
Speaker 2 (22:03):
No, I need more clarity on the injury report, but
under three, I mean, like I think that like one
is probably right, it's not. It's a tough spot for
Atlanta going cross country to play in San Francisco after
a huge win on Monday night. Left tackle that's the
big news. I know that San Francisco's defense is and
their pressure rate is basically diminished to nothing without Bosa.
(22:25):
The trickle down effect there is huge. And then you
don't have Fred Warner. It was the Stars and Scrubs
team regardless because they had to pay party and they
were just the defense was uber relyant on Warner and Bosa.
Now you don't have either. The offense is dealing with
a ton of injuries, so we'll see who ends up
playing on that side of the ball. The one to
(22:46):
watch for the Falcons is their left tackle, Jake Matthews,
who has the longest active streak of any longest active
star streak of any player in the NFL. Right now.
They're already missing their right tackle and their offensive line
has been good, but they're kind they kind of scheme
to that if they're missing their left tackle too. In
his back up, Mike Durrell's horrendous and was really really
(23:08):
bad in the second half against the Bills, which is
why the Falcons one of the reasons the Falcons offense
just didn't look the same in that second half. So
that's something to keep an eye on. He was listed
his day to day, but there's a lot of injuries
in that game. It's not a great spot for the Falcons.
I do love the Falcons, but ultimately a game I
might stay. I think it's a good teaser piece, So
(23:32):
if you're looking for another teaser piece, I would look
at the Falcons that get them up over eight, crossing
the three and seven.
Speaker 1 (23:42):
And I feel like for those out there, I look
at these numbers, these percentages when they when they are
this outrageous with this many of the bets tilted towards
one side. It should give you pause. It should give
you pause in general, and it should definitely give you
pause this year with the numbers that we're seeing. At
some point Stucky has mentioned this, it swings back in
(24:03):
the other direction. But there's a reason why it's hard
to beat the NFL, because most people just believe what
they see and they roll with it. You know, I've
been caught up in that trap as well. I think
if you love these these heavy public sides and their dogs,
put two together, teaser that up and we've seen a
lot of close games lately. Colts Cowboys are a nice
(24:25):
combo for me. Colts Falcons would be another. Before we
move off of this completely, Evan, you wrote about this
in the primer this week, teams off of an outright
win as a dog in primetime, like the Falcons against
the Bills, who play in primetime again the following week.
This is the Sunday night football game fifty nine percent
against the spread. I was shocked when I read that.
(24:46):
Were you surprised as you discovered that that bit of
data that those teams actually perform well the following week.
Speaker 6 (24:53):
Yeah, I mean, I just think it's normal narrative to
assume the opposite, which is kind of what I tend
to look for when doing these things. Like I think
it was a last week with the Bengals and the Packers.
It's like team loses three straight, other team favored by
this many points. Normal person looks at the slate, looks
at the games as oh, Packers have to cover.
Speaker 7 (25:12):
Well, it's like forty two percent last twenty years.
Speaker 6 (25:14):
Like things like that I think are the fun aspects
of what we do week to week. And same situation here,
Like most people look at something and make an assumption
and sometimes it's right, but in this one it was
kind of fun. I mean, small sample, it was like,
what forty five games, and we're talking about like eight
or nine games either way, especially when you have some
pushes on the cover side.
Speaker 7 (25:34):
I mean, I think.
Speaker 6 (25:36):
Margin probably tells more of a story there, which I
don't have in the copy, but I can look it up, so.
Speaker 7 (25:41):
That would be my initial thought. But yeah, interesting.
Speaker 1 (25:43):
Nonetheless, Dolphins, Patriots, Cowboys, Seahawks, Saints, Panthers, Eagles also on
that list above sixty percent. That's the threshold that I'm
looking for. For this head to actionnetwork dot com. You
can look at all of this stuff on your own
as well. By the way, the Luck Rankings point us
in a couple of directions this week, shout out to
Nick Giffin. If you're not checking out the luck rankings
(26:04):
on the website, you're doing yourself a major disservice. Saints
plus five and a half and what could be a
weather game. I think there's supposed to be some heavy
rain in Chicago. Lions minus five against the Bucks. That's
one that I am very interested in. I might try
and even tee that up to you guys when we
do our parlay. Jets plus one and a half against
Carolina Kendra, this is one that I cannot get behind.
(26:27):
There's no way I could back the New York Jets
flew back from London, didn't take the buy. Garrett Wilson
is out. The luck rankings are saying that on the side,
but no. I got in on the Panthers early. I'll
just sit with a light. I have a Panthers plus one.
I'm just gonna let that ride see how it goes.
Speaker 4 (26:46):
But I'm also on the Panthers this week it's an
option for our two Kings and a Queen because we
are a lot of us were opposite for a lot
of things this week, so I had to find things
that we wouldn't fight about.
Speaker 1 (26:58):
Well, this might be a good week for us as
far as going head to head, and I could use
a couple of wins in that regard. So let's get
to it. It's time for the reason you all came
here today, Two Kings and a Queen parlay. I let
us down last week. We hit two of our three.
Time to get back on the horse, find some winners,
four reminders. We each nominate two plays. We see if
(27:18):
we can find some general consensus on the board, will
battle if we have to, and eventually land on our
two Kings and a Queen parlay, which we'll have in
the app after the episode. Kendra, we'll start with you Chargers.
Speaker 4 (27:41):
My line, No I been Gifford put that in a year,
which is so funny because low key usually that's the play. However,
I like the Panthers were one of my nominations. I
also have the Over and the Seahawks Texans game at
forty one or if you guys want to stick with
my Titans play.
Speaker 5 (28:00):
I'm okay with that as well.
Speaker 1 (28:02):
I don't know if I like that. That's a really
low number. These are two of the slower paced teams.
They are bottom ten, bottom seven in fact, in terms
of positions or plays per game rather, so I don't
know if I love that. And the Texans and Seahawks
have really good defenses. I would like the Panthers. Was
that an option?
Speaker 5 (28:22):
Yes, Panthers are an option. We can do.
Speaker 1 (28:24):
What would be the Panthers?
Speaker 5 (28:25):
Do we want to do?
Speaker 4 (28:25):
Panthers money line? I don't know what the price is.
I'd have to look really quick, but.
Speaker 1 (28:29):
I think I think Panthers.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
I'm gonna I'm I might have avn't come in and
the I'm videoing Panthers. I mean the Panthers now they're
they're favored. I mean, in order to show value on them,
I need to make the Panthers like three points I
have four points better than the Jets on a neutral
field like this is a non divisional, non conference road game,
(28:54):
like I get no Garrett Wilson, which hurts, but this
is also like look at luck rankings game by Like
my overarching principle in the NFL is by low sell
high like Panthers are, and the Panthers are just not
the same team on the road. They've been dreadful on
the road. Bryce Young's numbers fall off a cliff on
the road, but they've won a couple of games in
(29:16):
a row. The Jets are over. Historically, betting these over
teams has been profitable, very profitable when no one wants
to back them. I mean, look at last week. No
one wanted to bet the Jets against the Broncos, and
they arguably should have won even with negative ten passing yards.
So I can't get there. I can't. I can't do
the Panthers.
Speaker 4 (29:36):
I will.
Speaker 2 (29:38):
It's either the Panthers or I mean, I would vote
for I don't. There's too much I don't know about
the Seahawks, secondary injuries, for.
Speaker 4 (29:48):
People stucky in a blunder with this every single weeks.
Speaker 1 (29:53):
I think I don't. I don't like the Titans bet,
but I will say we've talked more about that game
than any other this week. I feel like it would
be on brand for us to see this play out
on the parlay itself.
Speaker 5 (30:07):
So I think I want to choose.
Speaker 2 (30:08):
Yeah, Evant has to choose. Panthers are Titans.
Speaker 7 (30:11):
Yeah, it's Titans. There's no question. I want nothing to do.
Speaker 6 (30:14):
I don't want to watch the Jets game like I
just it's Titans.
Speaker 7 (30:18):
We gotta go with. I mean, the seven and a
half you got early.
Speaker 6 (30:22):
Week could be important in a game where Tennessee may
score negative points.
Speaker 7 (30:26):
But we will see what happens, all right, Man.
Speaker 5 (30:30):
Ham Ward coming out party this Sunday.
Speaker 1 (30:35):
Kendrill loves trolling her own market. That's one thing I do.
Speaker 5 (30:38):
I'm addicted. It's okay. I was born to troll, and
that's what I do.
Speaker 1 (30:43):
Stucky, what do you got.
Speaker 2 (30:44):
H Well, one of the one of mine I saw
it was one of yours was gonna be the Browns
money line.
Speaker 1 (30:51):
Does that mean that we auto play that one in
the parlay?
Speaker 2 (30:55):
Yeah? So that's that's gonna be years. I mean you
said you like the Raiders too, but I mean the
Raiders are mess. No brock Bowers, no Colton Miller. They're
so poorly coached.
Speaker 1 (31:04):
Chie. I would like to also, I you know it's
supposed to be too. I'm gonna break my own rules here,
but I would also want to nominate the Lions so
I could make a case for them.
Speaker 5 (31:13):
Also, I did three, you can do three.
Speaker 1 (31:16):
Yeah, I might.
Speaker 2 (31:20):
Left in the secondaries and the Bucks have no I mean,
I don't know how that game is going to play out.
So yeah, I like the Browns money line. I'll bank
my case for that now, just for I guess the content.
But look, what do the Dolphins have like? They don't.
They have nothing. They've one of the worst defenses in
the NFL. Their run defense is one of the three worst.
(31:40):
Their secondaries arguably the worst. They're blitzing at the top
five R eight, and Gabriel Lease has been good against the
blitz throughout his college Crewers. He was elite, one of
the best quarterbacks in college football history against the blitz.
But they're blitzing at the top five right They're getting
pressure at the bottom five or eight. Their offense doesn't
have Tyreek kill. They've one of the worst offensive lines
in the NFL. They're not even hitting explosive past plays anymore,
(32:00):
which is the one area where you have to beat
the Browns defense.
Speaker 5 (32:03):
Still scoring points though, if the.
Speaker 2 (32:05):
Browns defense at home doesn't give up points to anybody,
I mean, they just shut down the Packers. They let
this defense at home.
Speaker 5 (32:11):
I think people oversold the Packers, though.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
There still have a great offense, so they shut down
everyone who goes to Baltimore, having who goes to Cleveland.
You talk about I mean Joe Burrow and that Bengals
offense did absolutely nothing. The Packers offense did absolutely nothing.
You go back to the last couple of years, even
when the Browns defense was worse like last year they
(32:37):
had down here at home, they were still dominant. And
then there's gonna be weather in this game. So who
do I want. I want the team that could run
the ball, and the Browns have a top three rush D.
Like I said before, the Dolphins have a bottom three
rush D. To it, this ain't gonna be under fire
within as soon as he snaps the ball and there's
(32:57):
no Tyreek Hill, the Browns can play their deep here.
I think they'll do enough on the ground and win
an ugly one. That's why I like the Browns. But
my two two choices that I'll offer up are the Chargers.
Already made my case there, and then we'll do the
Vikings money line. I already made my case earlier the
(33:17):
week on plant the flag.
Speaker 5 (33:20):
On the Eagles, So it's got to be the Chargers.
Speaker 2 (33:23):
So yeah, my case for the Vikings. I mean, if
you watch the Eagles, this offense is broken. Kevin Pittula
cannot figure out how to go against the zone or
a blitz. Well, you're going up against the most blitz
heavy defensive coordinator and the most zone heavy defense in
the league this year, and that's been a problem for
(33:44):
Hurts throughout his career. Very good against the man, very
good against the man, coverage poor against zone this year.
Is the worst quarterback in the league against Cover two.
Guess what, Vikings running more Cover two than any other
team in the NFL. And on the other side of
the ball, Quenon Mitchell's hurt, the Eagles don't have a
corner j Jalen Carter's banged up. Their defense isn't getting pressure.
I mean, this is a defense that's below average. Their
nineteenth and success rate nineteenth and EPA pri play Vikings
(34:07):
with an elite staff off of bye, one of the
hardest places to play at in the NFL. I assume
it's going to be Carson Wentz at quarterback. The Eagles
don't have anyone to cover their receivers. They're not even
defending the run well. Saquon Barkley can't even get going
because the offensive line is hurt. I mean, this is
a guy who's getting tackled behind the line of scrimmage
on thirty six percent of his carries. Last year was
(34:29):
twenty four this year it's the second most in the NFL.
I could keep on going, but this Eagles offense is
broken right now. So it's either Vikings will say plus
plus one and a half at DraftKings or the Chargers
money line. You say Chargers, Kendra, no shot there? What
do you say, Brandon?
Speaker 1 (34:51):
I know we like to claim that we're a Jags podcast,
but low key we're kind of a Chargers podcast because
they're on the Parlay every week. I feel like I
want to get them off just because I'm tired of
seeing the Chargers on there. Even though I agree with
your points, I love the Vikings place, So my vote
would be on Minnesota on the Eagles.
Speaker 5 (35:09):
It can't be. So Evan's going to have to be
the voice of god.
Speaker 2 (35:12):
Chargers money line or Vikings plus one and a half.
Speaker 6 (35:15):
Don't you think it says something that I'm needed in
every one of these conversations.
Speaker 7 (35:19):
This podcast is absolutely incredible. But I will say Chargers
is the bet. It's always the Chargers. Yeah right, I
think the Chargers on the right side this week.
Speaker 1 (35:26):
Yeah, we can't off of this team.
Speaker 7 (35:29):
Dude, listen.
Speaker 6 (35:30):
I can't do anything but fade Daniel Jones and the
Colts until something happens to that team. And if I'm
wrong and we go to the super Bowl with the Colts,
that's going to be what it ends up having to happen.
Can't do anything about it.
Speaker 5 (35:41):
This is the Chargers podcast.
Speaker 1 (35:42):
It's always Chargers money line too. I don't think we've
taken a Chargers spread yet.
Speaker 6 (35:48):
Points with the Chargers, but you can assume hardball will
get the win. That's how they work.
Speaker 2 (35:51):
Chargers went by one on a missed honey Honey Badger,
not honey money badger. Extra point. So Titans plus seven,
Brown's money line, Chargers money line pays right around five
to one at DK.
Speaker 1 (36:07):
I dig it and Evan, I appreciate the podcast review.
Go ahead and leave five stars while you're at it. Okay,
thank yourself. Useful over there. Chargers money line, Brown's Brown's
money Line, and Titans plus do we get seven or
seven and a half?
Speaker 3 (36:24):
Stucky seven?
Speaker 4 (36:26):
All right, there's no seven and a half left. I
saw a bunch of people commenting on our video the
other day like where's the seven and a half, And
it's like, okay, well you better listen on time if
you want the better numbers. You ask why I got
to the window so early.
Speaker 5 (36:37):
Don't get out at me, sister.
Speaker 1 (36:39):
We're live on YouTube. Go and check us out. Two
Kings and a Queen Parlay presented by DraftKings. That'll do
it for this week's episode special thanks to our producers
Gifford Gold and David Payne. Evan Abrams busy leaving us
a five star review. You can do the exact same
thing wherever you download your favorite podcast, The Favorites. We'll
return on Sunday night. We have a recap episode Guys
(37:00):
seven right here on the Action Network YouTube page. Thanks
for tuning in. We'll be back here next time on
The Favorites podcast presented by DraftKings.
Speaker 3 (37:08):
Let's Catch these tickets.
Speaker 1 (37:19):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem.
Speaker 5 (37:26):
Help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred Gambler
Hosts And Creators
Chad Millman
Simon Hunter
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