October 23, 2025 • 50 mins
NFL Week 8 is here! As Kendra Middleton continues her European exploration, Stuckey and Brandon Kravitz team up to discuss trends, matchups and some of their favorite bets for NFL Week 8. With Halloween on the horizon it's a bit of a scary slate. So when were the guys the most scared they've ever been in their lives? Plus, who are they not afraid to back this week in the 2 Kings and a Queen Parlay? All that and more right here on The Favorites!
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
The Crown is yours.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined by one of my two faves,
the Prime Minister Stucky, along for the ride. Kendra is
still somewhere gallivanting around Europe. We did get a voice
message that has since disappeared, but we wish her well.
We'll chat with her on Sunday for the Week eight recap.
Another week in the NFL is upon us. On today's episode,
we're gonna submit our official plays for the week. We've
(00:38):
got our stat of the week as well our two
Kings and a Queen parlay. Some more public darlings that
are out there that you need to be aware of,
a couple of which I actually quite like this week.
Like and subscribe wherever it is you are tuned in.
Gambling scandals of plenty in the NBA, Stucky, I'm glad
that that's not anything we have to deal with over here.
I'm a little surprised that that's not something you hear
(01:00):
about in in the NFL. It's like we haven't really
dealt with that much. It's been very much an NBA
driven thing. Terry Rose, You're arrested by the way, if
you haven't seen the news.
Speaker 3 (01:11):
Yeah, I mean it's a lot harder to do in
the NFL. I mean there's only seventeen games, the only one.
You know, you don't have the ball enough unless you're
like a quarterback. Quarterbacks make so much money, Like what
are you going to just start throwing incomplete passes? Like
if you're a basketball player, you feel like you can
you can, like if it's like prop driven, you can
(01:32):
like impact the prole or you can like impact the game.
Like even going back to some of the college scandals,
like you could go you could impact the game. It's
a point guard to make sure that you don't cover,
but you still win. As like a quarterback in the NFL,
Like what are you gonna do? Like you just throw
away called possessions, like you're gonna lose. So yeah, there's
there's It's just it's a whole different ballgame. It'd be
so much harder to do in the NFL. In football,
(01:54):
the only time it's happened before, like the college ranks
with quarterbacks, it's much easier to do in basketball. It
doesn't really surprise me. A lot of people are going
to point to legalization as a reason for this. I
actually have a different take, and it's that part of
the reason we're catching some of this stuff. Now, you
(02:14):
could say, like the prevalence of props and all that stuff,
maybe it is more widespread, But this stuff's been going
on forever and it would never get caught, and I
think it's now more likely to get caught. So I
think it's actually a good thing that these things actually
come to the forefront. So yeah, but not something we
(02:34):
have to worry about.
Speaker 1 (02:35):
With the NFL a somewhat similar take on this, and
I think it makes me feel better as somebody that
in the NFL, in the NBA, in college, I tend
to lean more towards sides, and I think it is
when you had gambling scandals in the past, it would
be about game fixing. Now what you're seeing the scandals
are all built around props, and I think if you're
(02:56):
gonna be careful anywhere, if you live in fear of
any sort of fix, that's where the fixing takes place now.
I mean, and the NBA has been more of an
issue than the NFL, but it's just so hard to
fix a game.
Speaker 3 (03:10):
Yeah, And I wouldn't live here of props like it's
it's not like it's completely widespread. You know, these are
one off things, so and then over like if you
happen to be on the wrong end of one, like
I mean, you would never know, but the chances are
they would you would just wash out over time. You
might be on the wrong side one or two and
(03:31):
the right side of the other. I wouldn't be afraid
of betting props because of that.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
And remember, you can only fix an under, Okay, you can't.
You can't fix your way to thirty five points in
the NBA, So just keep that in mind. Don't be
scared to bet an under as well. Well's talk some
NFL bye weeks like crazy. This week six teams on buy.
Is your NFL betting card any lighter because of it?
Speaker 2 (03:55):
I've noticed that I've been.
Speaker 1 (03:57):
It's still have a lot out there, but it's it's
like less than it usually is with six teams not available.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
I don't know, I mean I think this week, yeah,
it is. It really depends on the week, just depends
on what I like. This week. I think I only
have let me pull it up. I only have I
haven't even bet anything yet, so as zero bets. I
just I'm I know that I'm gonna bet like the Texans,
I'm trying to figure out where that number is gonna go,
(04:26):
Like with the Nico Collins news, like does it come
back a little bit? I'm gonna bet well. I do
have the Ravens already. I have them some money line
to close out some parlays, but I'm gonna bet them again.
It just depends on like is it gonna be with
Lamar or is it gonna be when the line comes
(04:48):
down with their backup. I am gonna bet the Jets.
I'm trying to determine if that's gonna go to seven
or not. I'm good about the Saints. Probably just bet
that at four and a half, and I'm probably gonna
bet the Commanders. That's about it. There's a lot of
(05:08):
injuries this week too, on top of the buye, so
that's probably why my volume is down a bit. But
right now I'm just number watching, like around key numbers
and trying to figure out with some of these injury news,
where is the market going to go, and trying to
time it right.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
We saw that Saints number bounce around a little bit too,
so keep an eye on that. I've seen that. I've
seen three and a half's out there, four and a
half on draft Kings right now. So definitely shop around
if you are, depending on what side you're on as
far as that goes, Okay, we got a lot more
to get to, but we cannot dive into a Thursday
episode without your bizarre, weird random question of the week.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
Hey, this is a dumb question.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
Let me ask you a personal question kind of question
is that is question?
Speaker 3 (05:57):
In honor of Halloween coming up? What is the most
scared you've ever been in your life? Like I was,
I was robbed at gun pointing pistol whip once when
I was sixteen. The top I wasn't that scared. I
wasn't that scared. I think it was like adrenaline and
like it was just in the moment scared. I really wasn't.
(06:18):
It was crazy, like it was scary, but like my
I wasn't like completely petrified. I went into like you know,
survival mode.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
It was.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
It was crazy. I can't really explain it, but I
think the most scared ever was I think I told
the story on another podcast before. When I was sixteen,
my parents were divorced. My mom, my brother, and sister
went down to the beach in the summer, and I said,
I'm going to stay at my dad's, but I just
stayed at my mom's and then I just threw the parties,
(06:51):
like just big parties all weekend and they got like
completely out of hand. So it was Sunday night and
I was just I stayed by myself. My girlfriend the
time came over. I think we like watched a movie
and she left, and then I was sitting in my
family room and I swore that someone was out behind
my deck behind just out there, and I'm a night out.
(07:13):
I've been a night on my whole life. This is
like two and two, two thirty in the morning, and
I swore I kept seeing someone, and I'm like, I'm
doing my mind just playing tricks on me. I just
kept telling myself that. So then it was like three
thirty in the morning and I was like, all right,
I'm gonna go off to bed, and I was still
freaked out enough where like I put the lights on
like in front of me. I just remember being freaked out,
(07:35):
turned my light off above my bed, lay down, and
within ninety seconds my house alarm goes whoo I said,
Oh my god. So I was already freaked out, and
the house alarm went off. I ran to the stairs,
(07:56):
top of the stairs, and I was like trying to
see if I could hear anything, but the alarm was
so loud. I sprinted down my stairs, out my front door,
straight to my neighbor's house. It was my good friends
who were my age, were like sixteen seventeen, and their
dad has like hundreds and hundred He's like a huge
(08:17):
gun collection. I was banging on the door. They came, answered,
he got a gun, came out. No one was there.
We went back around the basement. The back basement window
was broken, so someone was watching me, and I think
it was just someone who someone like older, sketchy person
who came to the party and then was like, oh,
this kid's parents aren't home, so I think they'd planned
(08:39):
to rob me the next night. So then that night
I slept at my neighbor's house and I just watched
over the house because I'm not even supposed to be
at the house, and I'm like, oh my god, if
I just if the house gets robbed and I'm not
even there. So I just sat and stared at the
house for hours until daylight and then I went to sleep.
(09:00):
We got the window fixed, and no one ever knew
until I told my parents, Like, I don't know, three
four years later. They never found out. The alarm company
never came nothing. I don't This is like twenty twenty
five years ago, so I don't know how the alarms worked.
It was like not connected to a if it was
(09:22):
just like a.
Speaker 1 (09:23):
Noise emergency contact. It doesn't sounds like they weren't quite
buttoned up yet.
Speaker 3 (09:27):
No, but they never found out. My mom said she
knew that I had I had parties because obviously, like
you try to fix everything, yeah you can't, so but
she never knew about the house. And I felt so
guilty for weeks because I was like, I should tell
her because I'm like, what if they come back, right,
I'm not saying anything, But I lied about the entire weekend.
So yeah, that was the most scout I've ever been
(09:49):
because I was at Zebra having before. We were so
freaked out and you think something's going on, but you
can mention yourself, mine's just playing tricks on you. And
then actually no, someone was watching you out back, which
is freaky enough, but and to have the alarm go off,
and that was that was crazy? How about you?
Speaker 1 (10:04):
So your questions are always mind benders to me because
I'll think of a better answer, like two days from now.
I think I've done that with every question you've asked,
But the first one that comes to mind for me.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
I'm driving up to Orlando.
Speaker 1 (10:15):
I had just moved up here and I went back
down to get some stuff from my parents in South Florida.
I'm on the Turnpike going north and all of a sudden,
I'm driving a car that it was my first car,
like everybody else, was a shitty car that would top
out at sixty miles per hour.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
This thing.
Speaker 1 (10:31):
All of a sudden, I look at this sphenometer on
the highway. It goes up to ninety and I'm thinking
something is wrong. And all of a sudden, I see
a tire with an axle attached to it that is
flying in front of my car, and I'm like, that's
gotta be me, and my car starts wabbling. This all
happens in slow mo, but it probably took like five
seconds wobbling in a busy highway, and I thought for
(10:52):
sure this was the end. I was just going to
crash into the side of the of the highway and
hit a car. Mike's car stops dead in its tracks
and cars start whizzing by me. I didn't get hurt,
but I had three tires and I had to get towed.
Speaker 3 (11:09):
Wow, that's an irrational fear of mine. Is a tire
coming off like an eighteen it happens.
Speaker 1 (11:14):
Yeah, Yeah, it was very If you've ever seen Final
Destination the movie, it kind of felt it felt very
much like that, especially with the axle attached too. Not
only was I scared for myself, but that could have
killed somebody. Yep, all right, trimply unbelievable stat of the leak.
Let's get to it. Courtesy of the Primer, A weekly
guide into all the action from our director of research,
(11:35):
who you will hear from in a moment, Evan Abrams.
Through seven weeks, the NFC is twenty six and twelve
against the spread, and it's thirty eight games against the AFC.
This season, the NFC is five hundred, sitting at five
hundred ats or better in all seven weeks of the year.
Excuse me, this season a one hundred dollars better, taking
(11:57):
every NFC team against the AFC would be up one thousand,
one hundred and eighty eight dollars. That's an ROI of
thirty one point three percent. The NFC that much better
than the AFC right now. The numbers back it up,
and it does feel like that's the case. With everything
that's going on injury wise, with these quarterbacks in the AFC.
(12:20):
The Bills have been a little bit shaky lately, it
feels like the NFC is a superior conference at the moment.
Speaker 3 (12:26):
Yeah, I think there's probably there's a lot of I mean,
it's a sample size of thirty eight games, but I
do think the NFC is better. That makes me a
little nervous, but maybe it's due to come back. But
you'd have the Vikings this week, the Bears, who else
the Panthers, the and the Cowboys and the Packers are
(12:52):
the NFC teams to take on AFC. I do think
the NFC is clearly better top to bottom than the
af SEE right now, especially when you factor in all
the injuries. But I would imagine that probably evens out
over the course of the year. But yeah, the AFC
feels like what the NFC was a few years ago.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
Evan, you were the one that put that stat together.
Is that news or noise?
Speaker 4 (13:17):
It's noise.
Speaker 5 (13:17):
I think it has a lot to do with injuries,
especially injuries at the top of the AFC, like the
Baltimore is the Buffalo losing to in a row, Like
the best teams with the best quarterbacks that we say
always go to the Super Bowl except for you know,
the Eagle stuff.
Speaker 4 (13:30):
They're all hurt, and I think that has a big
impact on this.
Speaker 5 (13:34):
I also think the NFC teams at the top are
just more complete this year, like better defenses, like like
pretty good offenses.
Speaker 4 (13:43):
I just think as a whole they're playing well.
Speaker 5 (13:45):
I'd have to look deeper to see if there's any
other reasons why, But at the moment, I think there's
eight matchups this week, so you know, I wouldn't be
shocked if this is the week it reversed or at
least you saw like an even four and four split.
Speaker 1 (13:58):
But interesting nonetheless, another one that I saw that I
absolutely love and it does point in a different direction
from where I'm headed with one game this weekend. But
stats are stats. I can't change them. Since twenty eighteen,
teams who are on a four plus game winning streak
against the spread and straight up who didn't make the
(14:19):
playoffs the year prior are fourteen twenty six and one ats.
That includes two teams, the Patriots and the Bears. I
am not betting the Pats this week. I do have
a bet on Chicago at plus six and a half.
That was one of my favorite plays early in the week,
just trying to get ahead of some potential Lamar news
(14:40):
of him not playing looks like he's going to but
even still, I like some value on I see some
value in Chicago.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
Head to head for there is Yeah, what do we
got go? I'll still sit with it.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
I'm good with six and a half, honestly, Like I
can't even get there with Lamar.
Speaker 3 (14:57):
You gotta send me crab cakes, frozen crab cakes when
the Ravens went by seven plus.
Speaker 2 (15:02):
Oh, I'll take that. On the other side, I love
crab cakes.
Speaker 3 (15:05):
Okay, all right it scrap cake be Are we both
from Baltimore?
Speaker 2 (15:09):
By the way, I'm I'm not.
Speaker 3 (15:12):
I'm from I'm from like I'm from outside of Philly,
between Philly and Baltimore, but uh no, I'm not from Baltimore.
I had season tickets for thirteen years, but I uh no,
I'm not from Baltimore.
Speaker 1 (15:26):
But unfortunately I was born there in eighty five and
I left before the Those are my choice. I was
a kid, but I left before the Ravens came around
and became a Dolphins fan as the Ravens were coming
into existence. So I have love for the Ravens. I
am an Orioles fan, but Scott stuck with the shitty Dolphins.
(15:46):
But as far as that, as far as.
Speaker 3 (15:48):
They go on getting back to the NC I see
thing real quick. Yeah, should you look in the market
right now, just market power ratings for the top six
teams in the market are in the NF have the
Lions Packers. This is just current right now, so it
also accounts for injuries. Lions Packers, Rams and Eagles, Bills
(16:09):
and Ravens aren't too far behind now that they're getting healthier,
but they're still TVD on Lamar Jackson's status. But that
for the top six in the NFC, it has not
been like that for a while. I mean for the
past couple of years it's Chiefs, Ravens and Bills at
the top and clearly at the top. So yeah, the
(16:30):
top of the NFC is definitely rising.
Speaker 2 (16:35):
So we're going head to head on Ravens Bears.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
I will obviously feel better about this if there's some
late news that Lamar isn't gonna play, or if we
see Lamar play but his hamstring is still giving him issues.
All of those things are factors here, and I think
the Bears are legitimately good this year, so even just
getting them at plus six plus six and a half,
I'm good with. I understand that this is very this
(17:00):
this is the ultimate get right spot of all the
teams this week. You're talking about a Super Bowl contender
who right now is battling for a top pick in
the NFL Draft, getting star players back, and none bigger
than a guy that's worth about seven points to the spread.
Speaker 2 (17:15):
Totally get that.
Speaker 1 (17:16):
I'm betting against some major get right action here, but
I'm good with that. As far as the other game
that this applies in terms of the teams that are
four to oh ats over the last four weeks that
didn't make the playoffs last year, the Patriots are the
other one. They're favored by seven against the Browns. I
have no action on this game. I'm not sure where
you stand on this. This is a really interesting one.
(17:38):
The Browns haven't won a game away from home yet,
no surprise, they're bad. The Patriots are tied with the
Broncos and Bears with a four game winning streak. That's
the longest current streak in the NFL. Drake May is
the third most sacked quarterback in the NFL. That's a
bad matchup going against the Browns defense that can get
after the passer. Are we overvaluing the Browns though, because
(17:59):
here we go. Power ratings probably have this closer to six,
and you're paying attacks on how good New England has been.
But are we overvaluing Cleveland based on a blowout win
against the sinking ship in Miami? Conklin also back on
the offensive line, This is a really interesting read. Probably
a stay away from me.
Speaker 3 (18:17):
Yeah, I mean I make it right around seven, So
nothing to do here. I mean, I want to see
Drake Mays look fantastic, but he hasn't really faced any
good defenses. So I mean, if you look at the
schedule of defenses they faced, this will be a good test.
But the Browns defense isn't the same animal away from home.
It's additional. It's just not a great matchup for the Browns,
which is why I can't get there or can't look
(18:39):
their way. The Browns want to run the ball, obviously
with Jyllan Gabriel, and they're receiving mm. It's not a
great passing offense, but the Pats run defense is very good.
You got to throw to move the ball on them.
That's not the Browns strong suit. So yeah, and then
in order to both of these defenses are susceptible to
explosive passes. Well, guess what, Drake May's been one of
(19:01):
the best deep ball throwers, and they do have an
explosive passing offense, and the Browns certainly do not. So
I do not think it's a good matchup for Cleveland,
but I am interested. I'm close to market, and I
am interested to see Drake May go up against a
much better defense on paper than what he's seen for
(19:21):
the most part so far this season. But you can't
argue with his numbers, even adjusting for opponent, he's been
one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
Still to come to Kings and a Queen the parlay
gets nominated this week, But first a word from our
first Lady as she chats about DraftKings.
Speaker 6 (19:37):
The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where
new customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred
dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins and
three months of NBA League Pass to get started. Use
promo Code of Favorites when signing up with DraftKings. Again,
he used Code Favorites when signing up and bet five
bucks to get three hundred back and bonus bets if
your bet wins plus three months of NBA League. So
(20:00):
the crown is yours.
Speaker 1 (20:02):
Kendrew's not here to waffle on a pick for her
weekly pickle, So I will ask you, among all the
games on the board this week, what has been the
toughest for you to convince yourself in either direction to
get any sort of action on.
Speaker 3 (20:16):
I mean, if I have to convince myself, I'm staying away.
That's how it always is. So like Patriots, I just
explained my thinking with Patriots Browns, that's a stay away.
Speaker 1 (20:26):
Let me let me ask this in a different way
where you have been convinced in your mind on a
side and then have also convinced yourself on the other side.
So not one that you look at and say I
have no read on this one where you've had to
read and then that read has shifted. I think that's
that's the bigger pickle for any better is thinking that
(20:46):
they have a good read on a game and then
starting to look at it in a completely opposite direction.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
I mean Cowboys Broncos. I can see the case for
both sides. I mean eating bo Nicks to win by
margin not great, but the Cowboys offense and look, the
Cowboys offense has been incredible. Can Denver actually keep up?
Then again, look at some of Dallas's results on the
road to get blown out at Chicago, lose that Carolina,
(21:13):
This defense is still really bad. So I could see
both sides of the coin there. Titans Colts was an
easy pass for me, like the Indies should score at Will.
I did like some of the things Tennessee did with
simplifying their offense last week. But Jeffrey Simmons Sneid probably
(21:33):
going to be out. I don't know how they get stops,
but I laying I don't want to lay fourteen and
a half in the NFL. Like the Colts could be
up twenty one, that's a complete blowout in the NFL,
and Tennessee could score a garbage some touchdown and cover
like there's it's not college football, there's no incentive to
blow teams out, and so like, I don't think I would.
(21:55):
I don't think I've ever laid over two touchdowns in
the NFL. So that was an easy, easy crossout out.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
What about team total over that was one that I
was looking at if you want to bet the.
Speaker 3 (22:04):
Game script dependent though, like because Tennessee can't score and
then like it's what's what's their team total?
Speaker 2 (22:11):
Thirty and a half?
Speaker 3 (22:12):
Yeah, so like if it's like twenty eight three and
then it just dies and or like there's a couple
of fields. I don't know. Team totals aren't my specialty.
I mean I would think that Indian doors against that
defense without I mean, with thatou Jeffrey Simmons, you can
do whatever you want. That's snead. They traded brownly. That
defense is a shell you and Tennessee actually and does
(22:33):
go fast. They use tempo, so that helps your case
as well. But no, I would only look over in
that case. Dolphins Falcons is a like I'm not betting
the Dolphins, but I'm not probably not laying seven and
a half of the Atlanta and Bill's Panthers is one
(22:54):
where I think it's completely dependent on what the Bills
op to do out of the buy. Do they come
out and say we're gonna throw And if they do
and just let Josh Allen cook, then I think they're
gonna move the ball. It will and I think they're
gonna cover, and I think the game probably goes over.
But if they try to run it, Carolina is at
a top three run defense this year. The run defense
(23:15):
has been tremendous, so if they try to run it,
then all of a sudden, Carolina is getting stops. Carolina
can keep running it. The Bill's run defense has been bad,
the Carolina run offense has been good. They can keep
running it, keep the ball away from Allen, stay in
the game. But if Bills come out and throw it,
get a lead for Sandy Dalton to have to throw,
(23:35):
That's where I think Carolina get in trouble. So I
think it really comes down to the Bills approach and
how they call plays in this game and their run
pass split. Because they've been very run heavy. I think
this is a game where you want to be very
pass heavy. Do I trust them or know either way
I don't, so that's an easy pass.
Speaker 2 (23:51):
Oh yeah, we are.
Speaker 1 (23:52):
We're in lockstep with some of these games that are
giving us fits. Cowboys Broncos. Has me I've gone early
in the week, I was convinced I was going to
bet the Broncos. I've gone completely in the other direction,
and then I end up going I don't want to
go against how strongly I felt earlier in the week.
Think about some of the factors here, how this points
(24:13):
in both directions. The Broncos are unbeaten at home, but
they're also one in two ats at home, so they're winning.
But they're a little overvalued. I think people perhaps overvaluing
that home field advantage. We viewed Denver as one of
the top home field advantages in the NFL, but perhaps
that's getting baked in a little bit too much. You
also had Denver with this epic comeback last week. Evan
(24:33):
pointed this out in the article Teams that make the
sort of comeback that the Broncos made last week against
the Giants cover at a rate of forty three percent
next the very next week over the last ten years.
No surprise there, because it's so unlikely to do that,
and it probably means that you're not really that good
in the first place. So that leads you the way
of the Cowboys. The public has been getting absolutely crushed
(24:54):
this year. Eighty three percent of the bets, ninety two
percent of the money on the Cowboys. Only San Francisco
is receiving more action this week. That points me in
the direction of the Broncos is fading the public.
Speaker 3 (25:07):
Also, if you want to throw another one, no, but
they do last week they were like ten and oh,
so you never know. I don't want to base too
much off that. I would say that that.
Speaker 1 (25:15):
Has been my most tried and true method this year,
is getting back to the well on fade public sentiment.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
Yeah, I mean that that abs and foods. I mean
you look, books can do that because they have they're
getting well, they're getting plus one ten. You have to
have minus one then, and you got to you gotta
do it on every single bet. So I mean with
the Cowboys, yeah, I mean, look, the Broncos of one,
like you mentioned the comeback, the Broncs had that crazy
comeback as the Eagles lay an egg the next week
against the Jets. I mean their wins this year have
(25:42):
come by four two one. They lost by one, They
lost by three. They only beat the Titans by eight.
You know, their one blaw win came over the Bengals
with Jake Browning basically just vomiting on himself. Like, this
is a team that's just gonna play close games, like
not really cable of building margin. And the Cowboys can
keep up with pretty much anybody, and the certain haven't
(26:03):
certained he isn't as valuable against a team like the
Cowboys because they have two stug receivers. Right, a lot
of times he's eliminating one of them. But yeah, I
could I could see that going either way. But if
I had to at three and a half, it'd be
Dallas or nothing. The other game, yeah, the last one
is Eagles Giants. I kind of like the Eagles, but
(26:25):
I hate laying seven and a half with them, So
everything's number depended as seven. I like the Eagles, but
even at I don't like laying seven with Eagles. Like,
this is a team that get their offense goes into
just long lulls. Once they have a lead, they kind
of sit on it. This is not a team that
you really want to light points with, but it's a
really good spot. The Giants also have some potential injuries
(26:45):
on defense that I'm monitoring, but and that's really what
cost in the game against Denver. They lost two guys
in the secondary and Denver ended up coming back. But
the Eagles, they just played the Giants a couple of
weeks ago. The Giants have been dominating in first quarters.
They've been the second best team in the first quarter
EPA wise since Dart took over. Only team better is
the Chiefs. And what is that? So like their script
(27:08):
and everything early with this unique Dart offense has been
very good and that enables them to play how they
need to keep playing because they have a lead. The
problem is they just played the Eagles two weeks ago.
The Eagles kind of know what this Giants offense look
looks like, so and it's a tough spot for the Giants.
How do they bounce back from that meltdown? I don't know.
But if the Eagles are prepared and they get ahead
(27:28):
of the Giants, I don't think the Giants are built
to come from behind. The Giants run defense is really bad.
I think, you know, the Eagles might have found something
on offense last week, going under center more actually throwing
it downfield. So yeah, you know the Eagles, this is good.
They're gonna be They're gonna be ready for this game
because the Giants basically embarrassed them on national TV. We're
talking all kinds of shit. So I think it's a
really good spot for the Eagles. But it's not a
(27:49):
team I love needing to win by a ten plus,
so that one is has been a little bit of
a pickle as well.
Speaker 1 (27:57):
I think it's important to talk this stuff through because
this is what every better goes through, is these sort
of back and forth.
Speaker 2 (28:03):
There's a lot of games that are on the card.
Speaker 1 (28:05):
We have our picks with full conviction coming up in
a moment, Evan, before we move off of the waffling
the pickling, is there one that you're looking at or
a couple where you say, I just don't even know
what to do with that.
Speaker 4 (28:17):
I'll just say this off the bat.
Speaker 5 (28:19):
Eight games on the card this week of thirteen games
with the spread of six or more, which is just
unbelievable this time of year. Has to do with injuries
a lot of different factors. But if you look at
like seven of those eight teams that are those big
of a favorites, there is like something inherently odd and
not something we're used to about those teams, which is
(28:41):
why I think it's difficult to lay points. So one
by one quickly, it's Flacco and Cincinnati. It's the Ravens
getting back all of their roster, something we haven't seen.
It's like Pennix in Atlanta. I don't know if you
can do that. Philly doesn't cover in any situation really easily.
New England's really new at this Daniel Jones is laying
fourteen points, like each situation is something that I don't
(29:04):
think anyone is like comfortable with. I mean, I think
numbers tell you to do one thing, but there's also
a gut feeling about a bet.
Speaker 4 (29:10):
In what you've seen, and all of those favorites make
me nervous.
Speaker 3 (29:14):
So yeah, I'm on the flip side. It's like, oh,
but then you got a bet the Titans. Oh then
you got a bet Gaber on the road, right.
Speaker 5 (29:19):
So very difficult spread week, yeah, right, or the difficult
spread week, or the.
Speaker 1 (29:23):
Or the disaster that is the Miami Dolphins. And you
know the thing is, I want to make sure that
I lay You're in the right context with that, because
they bottomed out against the Browns. The Dolphins have been competitive,
and if you listen to the narrative from the talking
heads this week, it is as if this team has
quit on Mike McDaniel for a month. That's not true.
It's been one bad week and it was one bad
(29:44):
week in weather, and Tua has never played well in
those situations. So I do think that if you're if
you're just taking the number and talking about that game specifically,
the Dolphins are probably the right side. I do have
the Falcons teas down to one, so I'm gonna I'm
gonna off of that.
Speaker 2 (30:01):
Let's talk luck for a moment.
Speaker 1 (30:02):
Nick Giffen does phenomenal work with his weekly luck rankings,
and we've got some deltas that are out there. Jets
at Bengals A grade on the New York Jets. Giants
at Eagles A grade on the New York Giants, even
though they beat the Eagles pretty soundly just a couple
(30:22):
of weeks ago. I was surprised, not surprised in the
first one. The Bengals obviously feel like they have a
rabbit's foot and the Jets have the opposite. But the
Giants an unlucky team. I know last week they lost
to Denver in sort of a weird way, but the.
Speaker 3 (30:38):
Unluckiest loss of the year besides Tennessee. And they also
were unlucky against the Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (30:45):
But they've been playing great usually.
Speaker 3 (30:47):
What I'm saying, they put all that's looking at is
how many wins you should have versus how many wins
you do, so like the Eagles should have. I mean,
Eagles deserve to lose by like a touchdown. Last week
against Minnesota, they were out success rate by like twelve percent.
They had to pick. The Vikings had one touchdown in
six red zone trips. Uh you know there was a
drop touchdown, a tall touch up. Everything went wrong. The
(31:08):
Eagles did face all their damage on like fourth down bombs,
so that should have been a loss. The Rams game
obviously should have been a loss. They went on a
blocked fuel goal after they were down by twenty. So yeah,
the Eagles should have like a couple of fewer losses
and like easily could have two fewer losses.
Speaker 1 (31:26):
And you sound like somebody that's lost money betting on
the Eagles.
Speaker 3 (31:30):
Mon I did. I lost the Rams and the Vikings game,
which were graded like clear winners.
Speaker 2 (31:34):
Which you can hear that, you can hear the salt
in the vinegar, but what are.
Speaker 3 (31:37):
You gonna do? Also, I had the Giants against the
Cowboys to close out a round robin. I just needed
them to win and then they somehow outed down on
the loss in overtime. No joy. But uh yeah, so
that's all that's looking at. So that doesn't surprise me.
Like the Giants have been on I mean, last week
they had like a ninety win probably only one point,
stunning that the Broncos sixty to one live on the
(32:01):
money line at one point. So yeah, the Eagles definitely
have been lucky. Their schedules tough. It's they're gonna get
their medicine. I'm just not sure it's this week with
the Giants because I think I just think it's a
tough spot and the Eagles will be ready here and
I don't think it's a great matchup for the Giants
unless they jump ahead. But I'm not sure that they're
gonna be able to hear with their script after just
(32:22):
playing the Eagles a couple of weeks ago. So the
Jets would be the one of those two that I like.
Speaker 1 (32:26):
And I believe we're going to talk about that within
our parlay discussion. Here's one last interesting one. Nick Giffan
also does work on luck totals. I full disclosure, I
do bet NBA and Major League Baseball totals quite frequently.
I could be the world's worst NFL totals better. I
just I just don't view the league that way.
Speaker 2 (32:47):
I don't.
Speaker 1 (32:47):
I don't have a lens for it. But Broncos Cowboys
under fifty and a half is that has to be
If we were ranking contrarian plays across the board this week,
that would be in the top three because those two
teams can score. So I'm and I'm thinking and betting
any any under where the Cowboys are involved. But that
(33:08):
is a luck under right there? Would you be willing
to place a bet on that stucky?
Speaker 3 (33:13):
Maybe a fifty one or better? Which is a key
in the NFL? I mean, did the Broncos defense is
very good? The Cowboys offense isn't the same away from
home and bow Knicks is bon NICKX like that bo
Knicks will bonicks the offense into oblivion for like multiple quarters.
The had zero points against the Giants for three quarters
and then they had to go into comeback mode against
pre de defense with multiple second or injuries. So you
(33:36):
think that this but that this is a Broncos scene
that just scored thirteen points against the Jets. They scored
you know, they they were getting shut out against the
Eagles for three quarters. They were going to shut out
against the Giants for three quarters. So yeah, there's a
pat like to get over fifty one. You need, you
need a lot. You can't have a lot go wrong.
You need you can't be set on for field goals,
(33:58):
have red zone turnovers, and can tailspin a offense for
a couple of quarters. And to Broncos defense is very
talented and so I can see the path at fifty
one or better, but obviously won't be enjoyable betting a
Cowboys under I can see it.
Speaker 1 (34:15):
Four o'clock window, Cowboys under not things. It's time for
the reason you all came here today. Two Kings and
a Queen Parlay. We took another team l last week,
but all we can do is get back on the horse.
Here are two Kings and a Queen parlay, presented by
draft Kings of the Crown is yours. We'll start with
(34:39):
the person who isn't here. Kendra has submitted her plays.
I thought for sure we were gonna get some sort
of a anytime touchdown from a tight end. It is
tight ends Day on Sunday, by the way, the fourth Sunday.
Speaker 3 (34:50):
Here, Scott Hansen say that fifty million times.
Speaker 1 (34:53):
Is your buddy raybaon on any of the tight end
props this week for the cash The tight end stuff
went well, it went so wild last year. I was
talking with David Payton, our producer, before we popped on today.
It's bound to just tilt in the other direction because
people are gonna go wild on Sunday for these touchdown
tight end props.
Speaker 3 (35:13):
At least Kelsey's not playing on National tight Ends Stack
because that's when Scott Anson.
Speaker 2 (35:16):
Really yeah right, Well, she doesn't have one of those Jets.
Speaker 1 (35:22):
Giants are her too, so she is going East Rutherford
action here. Giants plus seven and a half against the Eagles,
Jets plus six and a half against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Speaker 2 (35:34):
I was going to tee up the Jets.
Speaker 1 (35:35):
Once I saw that on our little Google doc, I
decided to take it off so my voute would be
on the Jets here. This Bengals team is not real
and if you look at every single direction of how
to bet a game in the NFL, it would point
you in the way of the New York Jets. Aaron
Glenn hasn't committed to a quarterback yet. I think at
(35:57):
this point we all hope it's to Rod Taylor. Under
Zach Taylor. The Bengals are two and six ATS when
playing at home off of a night game, two and
five ATS with extra time to prepare. In a non
borrow quarterbacked game, They're at home one in prime time
black all looks amazing.
Speaker 2 (36:15):
I'm not buying any of it.
Speaker 1 (36:17):
And the Jets, I mean you talk about do I
mean this team is overdue for a win, so perhaps
even a sprinkle on the money line. But I love
the Jets this week. That's my favorite bets, so that
would be my vote. I do like the Giants. I
just I'm afraid to buy high on the Aura, as
Kendro would put it, of Jackson Dart and Cam Skataboo.
(36:38):
It just feels like it almost feels like the they're like.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
The cute new team. I just I'm not fully buying
it yet.
Speaker 1 (36:44):
The Eagles, as much as they are a slog to watch,
it's still they're still a superpower in the NFL.
Speaker 2 (36:50):
So that one I'm a little bit slower to get
to the window on. But I love the Jets.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
No Giants. We're going with the Jets. Hopefully Garret Wilson
maybe plays. I don't know there's a buye, but I mean,
do the Jets really care about it?
Speaker 5 (37:00):
Buye?
Speaker 3 (37:00):
I don't know. Sauce Corners in a covert protocol, but
Michael Carter's back in the secondary. You got a couple
other guys and that's going to be one of the
big questions against their receivers. But this is a Jets team.
You mentioned, They've been extremely unlucky. I mean they have
covered a bunch of games, Like in this price range
they covered. They were like plus seven at Tampa and covered,
had a chance to win. They covered. They were this
around this price on a neutral against the Broncos a
(37:25):
couple of weeks back. So like now we're the Bengals
are laying six and a half because Joe Flacco had
his one explosion game. This is still one of the worst.
The Bengals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL,
one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. They
have been able to run the ball all year. The
Jets defense is top seven in rush and pass success rate.
The Bengals are bottom five in both. Like, the Jets
(37:46):
should be able to run the ball year even with
that is no Garret Wilson, I'm assuming it's tyrot or Trod,
my guy. I call him ty God. He's thirty four
to twenty one and four against the spread in his career.
Speaker 2 (37:56):
Covers will call whatever he wants, just to call.
Speaker 3 (37:59):
Him sixty two sixty five percent against the spread. As
a dog, he's nine three and one against his privan
catching six or more. The Jets of a minus nine
turnover differential. They forced one turnover all year. They're so
overdue for turnovers. Flacco will give you the ball. So yeah,
and the Blengals don't blitz. They don't bring pressure if
that's really what's killed all the all the Jets quarterbacks.
(38:19):
But I think actually Tad is better than than fields
right now. So there are some concerning injuries for the Jets.
The Bengals have some extra rest, but like, this team
should not be laying six and a half here. So yeah,
we're going with the New York Football Jets.
Speaker 2 (38:31):
What about you.
Speaker 3 (38:33):
I'm gonna my two choices are the Ravens, but I
know you're not going to pick that, so we're gonna
and I don't blame you with the Lamar uncertainty, so
we're gonna go with the Commanders plus twelve and a half.
Like this is assuming, Like I don't think that the
drop off between Daniels and Mariota is this big right now.
Like Daniels is not playing well this year, there's been
(38:54):
no chemistry with the offense. We've seen Mariota come in
and be very competent run this offense the Chiefs are
doing with offensive line injuries. It looks like McLaurin and
Deebo are going to be back. You should get a
focused effort here from the Commanders after they got blown
out against Dallas. Everyone is so high in the cheeks.
I get it. I love their offense too, but some
(39:14):
offensive line injuries you can run on them, which Washington
certainly can do. Mariota can run this off This is
a big number. This is a number that you get
against like a completely Yeah, they were just laying this
number to the Raiders without Bowers and without Colton Miller
and rate this completely broken Raiders team. Like this is
(39:35):
still a functional Washington offense that even if you're blowing
them out by like seventeen, you can still get in
the back door too many points. We're gonna go with
the Commanders Monday Night, catching twelve and a half, little
Bilos cell high spot there.
Speaker 2 (39:49):
Very much self. I am game for that.
Speaker 1 (39:51):
I like the Commanders play, don't love Mariota, but I'm
willing to stomach that now, Evan, just for the sake
of content. If you to break the tie between the
Commanders of plus twelve and a half or the Ravens
at minus six and a half, where would you have
placed your vote?
Speaker 5 (40:10):
I want nothing to do with Chicago and Baltimore. I
just way too many question marks for me. I think
Washington's the better play. I agree with Stuck. Jayden's fantastic.
We saw what he can do, but this year the
drop off hasn't been that drastic. And if you look
at it like this, which I know it's a little
bit of a different way of looking at it, but
the look ahead, like what we assumed Washington would be
(40:33):
is casey minus three and a half. That's just way
too drastic of a difference in that type of game,
and Kansas City's looked way too good that I would
be looking in the other direction. Like, do I expect
them to win? I do, but I think seven, eight, ten,
Like there's just eleven. There's a lot of different options
here for that number, and listen.
Speaker 3 (40:54):
And the Chiefs just sit on it when they get
leads too.
Speaker 4 (40:56):
Yeah, yeah, I think Washington's the right side.
Speaker 1 (41:00):
Washington is going to have to score some points though.
The Chiefs offense is averaging thirty one and a half
points per game, four hundred and twelve yards of total
offense over their last four games, So the Commanders are
going to have to move the ball otherwise we're going
to be in trouble with that number. But it's still
a great buying opportunity for the Commanders.
Speaker 3 (41:18):
Did it also worth bet you? I'll reiterate. Chiefs said three.
Josh Simmons is away from the team. They're left tackle.
I hope everything's okay with them. I didn't see an update.
I hope it's nothing serious, but he's dealing with a
personal issue. Tray Smith and Jawan Taylor. Tray Smith's one
of your better off its linean and your right tackle
got hurt last week, So like that could throw a
(41:38):
little wrench into this. But Washington, especially with McLaurin and
Debo back, but they can run the ball, and the
Chiefs run defense has not been good. They lost another
defensive lineman last week. And who's now an I are
And so Washington, I think should be able to run it.
And what does that mean? Keep Mahomes on the sideline?
So I think they can put up their fair share
of points. I think they can get to seventeen to
(42:01):
twenty points in this and you know that I think
the Chiefs probably get to like twenty eight to thirty one.
So yeah, I think, But just numbers wise, this is
too much like this is Daniels has not been great
this year, and the timing of the receiver has been off.
It's just and we've seen Mariota run this offense confidently.
(42:22):
This is not like this is a bottom feeder line
like the Raiders is one of the worst teams gonna
felt the moment without their best players. And this is
what the number was last week. Too much inflation. So yeah,
we're rolling with and Avid real quick. Who would you
went with Giants or Jets as the New York guy.
Speaker 4 (42:37):
I probably wouldn't go with the Giants.
Speaker 5 (42:39):
I just think that a game is the extra yeah,
and you it's the ultimate you got to see it
to prove it type of game. Like every single week,
the Giants look better than we think they are, and
it just yeah, on paper, the Eagles obviously look better,
but when you get on the field, there's just something
a little different.
Speaker 3 (42:55):
I don't know, they fade and then they miraculously find
ways to cover.
Speaker 1 (43:00):
Sure, yeah, they are definitely I love fading the Eagles,
and I don't know if I've lost as much as
Stucky on that endeavor. But betting of the Broncos the
week that they were able to come back against Philly,
that was one of my better wins on the year.
But betting the Giants is just simply more fun than
betting the Jets. But we're not in this for fun.
We're in this for wins.
Speaker 3 (43:19):
You might not say that when Deontay Banks as the player.
I don't even know who they're going to start at
the DeVos out But anyway, all right, what are your
two that you're going with?
Speaker 1 (43:27):
By the way, public flogging on Monday night, sixty six
percent of the bets right now on the Kansas City Chiefs.
No surprise there as part of the reason why we
like the Commanders. Saints plus four against the Tampa Bay Bucks,
Texans minus one against the San Francisco forty nine Ers.
Speaker 2 (43:42):
I'll go into cell.
Speaker 1 (43:43):
Mode for these and then I'll let you pick between
the two. The injuries are catching up to Tampa short
week now they go on the road in division. Baker
has struggled in these spots four and five in those
positions at ATS. As a favorite against the NFC South,
I eliminate everything involved with Cleveland when I do anything
Baker related stat wise, So thank you for putting that
(44:05):
in the primer.
Speaker 2 (44:06):
Evan, this is a luck ranking game.
Speaker 1 (44:08):
On top of it, Rattler through three picks last week,
he hadn't thrown an interception since Week three. If he
can just play it safe, simple style of quarterback play,
I think they can move on Tampa. Chris Alave has
been playing some really good football. I can't quit the Saints.
I've bet this team a lot this year two and
five ATS, so it doesn't exactly paid off, but I'm
(44:29):
gonna go back to the well here and fade the Bucks.
As far as the other play, everything points to Houston here.
San Francisco's a cell high, Houston's a by low. They
are a disgusting football team. One offensive touchdown last week
in primetime. They have been awful in these primetime games.
Just think back to that game against the Tampa Bay Bucks.
(44:51):
The sharp side was the Texans, just like it was
against the Seahawks.
Speaker 2 (44:56):
They have not been coming through.
Speaker 1 (44:57):
But when you look at what the P rating is
going to tell you is that the Texans should be favored.
Speaker 2 (45:03):
I think most people that look at this game are
going to.
Speaker 1 (45:05):
Say, well, how in the world are the San Francisco
forty nine ers not favored?
Speaker 2 (45:09):
They're the better team.
Speaker 1 (45:10):
Houston's defense is allowing fourteen point seven points per game.
Shanahan's teams the last nine times they've faced the defense
allowing seventeen points per game or less one to eight
against the spread. I mean, the Texans might be bad,
but all signs point to them in this particular game.
Speaker 3 (45:28):
Yeah, I like both. I like both of these. Good
job by Kendra. You and maybe I'm rubbing off on
you guys because I used to not like all your
plays in the beginning of the year. Now this week
I like all of your plays. So good work. Here,
I'm going to beat bet both of these. I like
the Texans. I mean, look the forty nine ers, they
had an all out effort against Atlanta. But I mean
Penix is just off. That defense is really bad. It's
(45:49):
a bottom five defense on paper right now because they
don't have Warner and they don't have both. They just
lost off, they have other injuries, Green, their corner got hurt,
and they don't get pressure. They're dead last and pressure
rate by a wide margin out boss on the field.
What does that mean? That means like Stroud's actually gonna
have time to operate and even if Nico Collins doesn't play,
they're going to be able to throw the ball. He's
(46:10):
look at the Ravens games. Stroud looked great. The Titans
game teams that weren't able to get pressure when he
was playing, like the Rams, the Seahawks, He's elite defensive linset.
They will just they just crumble the awful the Houston
offensive line and they can't do anything. So this is
a game where indoors against a bad defense, even if
Nico Collins doesn't play, even if Christian Kirk doesn't play.
(46:32):
I think with the Iowa State receiving core that he
might have. They're gonna be able to move the ball.
And then you have the best unit on the field
in the Houston defense, still one of the best defenses
in the NFL. And look, Matt Jones has been great
as a backup, but I mean look that, but he's
had one touchdown, four interceptions in his last three or
four games. And who is he played. I mean he's
(46:53):
played the Falcons defense, the Bucks defense with all their injuries,
you know, the Jags, the Rams, the Saints, like this
is a big step up in class for mac Jones
and this defense at home desperation spot, they're gonna be ready.
And look the forty nine ers Yester five and two.
They should have lost to the Cardinals. Cardinals have a
(47:15):
wide open they drop it literally wide open and drop.
They win that game. They won by one. The Saints
had the ball with a chance to win. They win
by five. The Seahawks had a chance to win, it
was a fumble late. They won by four. They beat
the Rams in overtime. They then they you know, they
beat the Falcons last week by ten. That's that they
have four. There are four wins by one possession. They
could have all went the other way. This team usually
(47:37):
could have two or three wins. Credit the Channa for
when he's done with all the injuries, but I think
Houston gets it done. I also like your other pick, which.
Speaker 2 (47:45):
Was who it was the Saints four The Saints.
Speaker 3 (47:48):
Yeah, I agree with everything he said. The Bucks injuries
before the bye week, they're going to be more cautious
with who they hold out. Baker kind of came back
down to earth last week. Maybe some of the injuries
on the offensive line widerc I mean, he was a
Bucks team that was Baker was playing at a god
level and they were barely winning games, like last minute
drives every week. Last week against a bunch of backups,
(48:08):
he wasn't playing at God level and they get blown out.
So yeah, he might be coming back down to earth
a bit. And the injuries around him aren't helping. Bucky
Irving not being in it doesn't help, and this Bucks
defense is still gettable. Worry about the center injury against
Videvea for the Saints. I'll see how they mix it up.
But I like both of these. My vote would be
We're gonna go with the Texans. That's what I have
(48:29):
the most conviction on, but I'm okay going with either. Ivan,
do you have a preference?
Speaker 5 (48:33):
I love both of these sides. I've been sitting here
trying to figure it out. I think New Orleans is
the right side based off a number of factors. Something
looked wrong with Baker overall in that game, Like I
don't even necessarily know if it was the injuries or anything.
He just looked off the entire.
Speaker 3 (48:46):
Night in mis step, wide open touchdown.
Speaker 1 (48:49):
He's not comfortable with his receivers. So who are we
going with here? Texans or Saints?
Speaker 5 (48:54):
I Mean, my only question was going to be this
when Nico Collins gets officially announced out, which we soon.
Speaker 3 (49:00):
That's what I'm trying to figure out.
Speaker 5 (49:01):
You think it'll come down a little bit because I'm
just I'm a little worried going against San Francisco with
all that they do, and I keep doing that every
week and I keep losing.
Speaker 4 (49:10):
But I think the Texans are the right side here.
Speaker 2 (49:12):
All right.
Speaker 3 (49:12):
But because of that and at DraftKings right now, the
Saints are the best price of market. So let's go
up the Saints plus four and a half.
Speaker 1 (49:19):
All right, deal, Saints plus four and a half is
my play. In the Two Kings and a Queen parlay
presented by DraftKings, Kendra has the Jets plus six and
a half against the Bengals and stuck. You'll have to
wait till Monday night for that one. Commanders plus twelve
and a half against the Chiefs. That will do it
for today's episode special thanks to our producers Gifford Gold
(49:41):
and David Paine. The Favorites will return on Sunday night.
All the week eight recap for you. Catch it right
here on the Action Network YouTube page. Thanks so much
for tuning in. We'll see you next time here on
the Favorites presented by DraftKings.
Speaker 2 (49:54):
Let's cash these tickets I go. Action Network reminds you
please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about
has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to
(50:14):
seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
The Crown is yours.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined by one of my two faves,
the Prime Minister Stucky, along for the ride. Kendra is
still somewhere gallivanting around Europe. We did get a voice
message that has since disappeared, but we wish her well.
We'll chat with her on Sunday for the Week eight recap.
Another week in the NFL is upon us. On today's episode,
we're gonna submit our official plays for the week. We've
(00:38):
got our stat of the week as well our two
Kings and a Queen parlay. Some more public darlings that
are out there that you need to be aware of,
a couple of which I actually quite like this week.
Like and subscribe wherever it is you are tuned in.
Gambling scandals of plenty in the NBA, Stucky, I'm glad
that that's not anything we have to deal with over here.
I'm a little surprised that that's not something you hear
(01:00):
about in in the NFL. It's like we haven't really
dealt with that much. It's been very much an NBA
driven thing. Terry Rose, You're arrested by the way, if
you haven't seen the news.
Speaker 3 (01:11):
Yeah, I mean it's a lot harder to do in
the NFL. I mean there's only seventeen games, the only one.
You know, you don't have the ball enough unless you're
like a quarterback. Quarterbacks make so much money, Like what
are you going to just start throwing incomplete passes? Like
if you're a basketball player, you feel like you can
you can, like if it's like prop driven, you can
(01:32):
like impact the prole or you can like impact the game.
Like even going back to some of the college scandals,
like you could go you could impact the game. It's
a point guard to make sure that you don't cover,
but you still win. As like a quarterback in the NFL,
Like what are you gonna do? Like you just throw
away called possessions, like you're gonna lose. So yeah, there's
there's It's just it's a whole different ballgame. It'd be
so much harder to do in the NFL. In football,
(01:54):
the only time it's happened before, like the college ranks
with quarterbacks, it's much easier to do in basketball. It
doesn't really surprise me. A lot of people are going
to point to legalization as a reason for this. I
actually have a different take, and it's that part of
the reason we're catching some of this stuff. Now, you
(02:14):
could say, like the prevalence of props and all that stuff,
maybe it is more widespread, But this stuff's been going
on forever and it would never get caught, and I
think it's now more likely to get caught. So I
think it's actually a good thing that these things actually
come to the forefront. So yeah, but not something we
(02:34):
have to worry about.
Speaker 1 (02:35):
With the NFL a somewhat similar take on this, and
I think it makes me feel better as somebody that
in the NFL, in the NBA, in college, I tend
to lean more towards sides, and I think it is
when you had gambling scandals in the past, it would
be about game fixing. Now what you're seeing the scandals
are all built around props, and I think if you're
(02:56):
gonna be careful anywhere, if you live in fear of
any sort of fix, that's where the fixing takes place now.
I mean, and the NBA has been more of an
issue than the NFL, but it's just so hard to
fix a game.
Speaker 3 (03:10):
Yeah, And I wouldn't live here of props like it's
it's not like it's completely widespread. You know, these are
one off things, so and then over like if you
happen to be on the wrong end of one, like
I mean, you would never know, but the chances are
they would you would just wash out over time. You
might be on the wrong side one or two and
(03:31):
the right side of the other. I wouldn't be afraid
of betting props because of that.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
And remember, you can only fix an under, Okay, you can't.
You can't fix your way to thirty five points in
the NBA, So just keep that in mind. Don't be
scared to bet an under as well. Well's talk some
NFL bye weeks like crazy. This week six teams on buy.
Is your NFL betting card any lighter because of it?
Speaker 2 (03:55):
I've noticed that I've been.
Speaker 1 (03:57):
It's still have a lot out there, but it's it's
like less than it usually is with six teams not available.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
I don't know, I mean I think this week, yeah,
it is. It really depends on the week, just depends
on what I like. This week. I think I only
have let me pull it up. I only have I
haven't even bet anything yet, so as zero bets. I
just I'm I know that I'm gonna bet like the Texans,
I'm trying to figure out where that number is gonna go,
(04:26):
Like with the Nico Collins news, like does it come
back a little bit? I'm gonna bet well. I do
have the Ravens already. I have them some money line
to close out some parlays, but I'm gonna bet them again.
It just depends on like is it gonna be with
Lamar or is it gonna be when the line comes
(04:48):
down with their backup. I am gonna bet the Jets.
I'm trying to determine if that's gonna go to seven
or not. I'm good about the Saints. Probably just bet
that at four and a half, and I'm probably gonna
bet the Commanders. That's about it. There's a lot of
(05:08):
injuries this week too, on top of the buye, so
that's probably why my volume is down a bit. But
right now I'm just number watching, like around key numbers
and trying to figure out with some of these injury news,
where is the market going to go, and trying to
time it right.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
We saw that Saints number bounce around a little bit too,
so keep an eye on that. I've seen that. I've
seen three and a half's out there, four and a
half on draft Kings right now. So definitely shop around
if you are, depending on what side you're on as
far as that goes, Okay, we got a lot more
to get to, but we cannot dive into a Thursday
episode without your bizarre, weird random question of the week.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
Hey, this is a dumb question.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
Let me ask you a personal question kind of question
is that is question?
Speaker 3 (05:57):
In honor of Halloween coming up? What is the most
scared you've ever been in your life? Like I was,
I was robbed at gun pointing pistol whip once when
I was sixteen. The top I wasn't that scared. I
wasn't that scared. I think it was like adrenaline and
like it was just in the moment scared. I really wasn't.
(06:18):
It was crazy, like it was scary, but like my
I wasn't like completely petrified. I went into like you know,
survival mode.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
It was.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
It was crazy. I can't really explain it, but I
think the most scared ever was I think I told
the story on another podcast before. When I was sixteen,
my parents were divorced. My mom, my brother, and sister
went down to the beach in the summer, and I said,
I'm going to stay at my dad's, but I just
stayed at my mom's and then I just threw the parties,
(06:51):
like just big parties all weekend and they got like
completely out of hand. So it was Sunday night and
I was just I stayed by myself. My girlfriend the
time came over. I think we like watched a movie
and she left, and then I was sitting in my
family room and I swore that someone was out behind
my deck behind just out there, and I'm a night out.
(07:13):
I've been a night on my whole life. This is
like two and two, two thirty in the morning, and
I swore I kept seeing someone, and I'm like, I'm
doing my mind just playing tricks on me. I just
kept telling myself that. So then it was like three
thirty in the morning and I was like, all right,
I'm gonna go off to bed, and I was still
freaked out enough where like I put the lights on
like in front of me. I just remember being freaked out,
(07:35):
turned my light off above my bed, lay down, and
within ninety seconds my house alarm goes whoo I said,
Oh my god. So I was already freaked out, and
the house alarm went off. I ran to the stairs,
(07:56):
top of the stairs, and I was like trying to
see if I could hear anything, but the alarm was
so loud. I sprinted down my stairs, out my front door,
straight to my neighbor's house. It was my good friends
who were my age, were like sixteen seventeen, and their
dad has like hundreds and hundred He's like a huge
(08:17):
gun collection. I was banging on the door. They came, answered,
he got a gun, came out. No one was there.
We went back around the basement. The back basement window
was broken, so someone was watching me, and I think
it was just someone who someone like older, sketchy person
who came to the party and then was like, oh,
this kid's parents aren't home, so I think they'd planned
(08:39):
to rob me the next night. So then that night
I slept at my neighbor's house and I just watched
over the house because I'm not even supposed to be
at the house, and I'm like, oh my god, if
I just if the house gets robbed and I'm not
even there. So I just sat and stared at the
house for hours until daylight and then I went to sleep.
(09:00):
We got the window fixed, and no one ever knew
until I told my parents, Like, I don't know, three
four years later. They never found out. The alarm company
never came nothing. I don't This is like twenty twenty
five years ago, so I don't know how the alarms worked.
It was like not connected to a if it was
(09:22):
just like a.
Speaker 1 (09:23):
Noise emergency contact. It doesn't sounds like they weren't quite
buttoned up yet.
Speaker 3 (09:27):
No, but they never found out. My mom said she
knew that I had I had parties because obviously, like
you try to fix everything, yeah you can't, so but
she never knew about the house. And I felt so
guilty for weeks because I was like, I should tell
her because I'm like, what if they come back, right,
I'm not saying anything, But I lied about the entire weekend.
So yeah, that was the most scout I've ever been
(09:49):
because I was at Zebra having before. We were so
freaked out and you think something's going on, but you
can mention yourself, mine's just playing tricks on you. And
then actually no, someone was watching you out back, which
is freaky enough, but and to have the alarm go off,
and that was that was crazy? How about you?
Speaker 1 (10:04):
So your questions are always mind benders to me because
I'll think of a better answer, like two days from now.
I think I've done that with every question you've asked,
But the first one that comes to mind for me.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
I'm driving up to Orlando.
Speaker 1 (10:15):
I had just moved up here and I went back
down to get some stuff from my parents in South Florida.
I'm on the Turnpike going north and all of a sudden,
I'm driving a car that it was my first car,
like everybody else, was a shitty car that would top
out at sixty miles per hour.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
This thing.
Speaker 1 (10:31):
All of a sudden, I look at this sphenometer on
the highway. It goes up to ninety and I'm thinking
something is wrong. And all of a sudden, I see
a tire with an axle attached to it that is
flying in front of my car, and I'm like, that's
gotta be me, and my car starts wabbling. This all
happens in slow mo, but it probably took like five
seconds wobbling in a busy highway, and I thought for
(10:52):
sure this was the end. I was just going to
crash into the side of the of the highway and
hit a car. Mike's car stops dead in its tracks
and cars start whizzing by me. I didn't get hurt,
but I had three tires and I had to get towed.
Speaker 3 (11:09):
Wow, that's an irrational fear of mine. Is a tire
coming off like an eighteen it happens.
Speaker 1 (11:14):
Yeah, Yeah, it was very If you've ever seen Final
Destination the movie, it kind of felt it felt very
much like that, especially with the axle attached too. Not
only was I scared for myself, but that could have
killed somebody. Yep, all right, trimply unbelievable stat of the leak.
Let's get to it. Courtesy of the Primer, A weekly
guide into all the action from our director of research,
(11:35):
who you will hear from in a moment, Evan Abrams.
Through seven weeks, the NFC is twenty six and twelve
against the spread, and it's thirty eight games against the AFC.
This season, the NFC is five hundred, sitting at five
hundred ats or better in all seven weeks of the year.
Excuse me, this season a one hundred dollars better, taking
(11:57):
every NFC team against the AFC would be up one thousand,
one hundred and eighty eight dollars. That's an ROI of
thirty one point three percent. The NFC that much better
than the AFC right now. The numbers back it up,
and it does feel like that's the case. With everything
that's going on injury wise, with these quarterbacks in the AFC.
(12:20):
The Bills have been a little bit shaky lately, it
feels like the NFC is a superior conference at the moment.
Speaker 3 (12:26):
Yeah, I think there's probably there's a lot of I mean,
it's a sample size of thirty eight games, but I
do think the NFC is better. That makes me a
little nervous, but maybe it's due to come back. But
you'd have the Vikings this week, the Bears, who else
the Panthers, the and the Cowboys and the Packers are
(12:52):
the NFC teams to take on AFC. I do think
the NFC is clearly better top to bottom than the
af SEE right now, especially when you factor in all
the injuries. But I would imagine that probably evens out
over the course of the year. But yeah, the AFC
feels like what the NFC was a few years ago.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
Evan, you were the one that put that stat together.
Is that news or noise?
Speaker 4 (13:17):
It's noise.
Speaker 5 (13:17):
I think it has a lot to do with injuries,
especially injuries at the top of the AFC, like the
Baltimore is the Buffalo losing to in a row, Like
the best teams with the best quarterbacks that we say
always go to the Super Bowl except for you know,
the Eagle stuff.
Speaker 4 (13:30):
They're all hurt, and I think that has a big
impact on this.
Speaker 5 (13:34):
I also think the NFC teams at the top are
just more complete this year, like better defenses, like like
pretty good offenses.
Speaker 4 (13:43):
I just think as a whole they're playing well.
Speaker 5 (13:45):
I'd have to look deeper to see if there's any
other reasons why, But at the moment, I think there's
eight matchups this week, so you know, I wouldn't be
shocked if this is the week it reversed or at
least you saw like an even four and four split.
Speaker 1 (13:58):
But interesting nonetheless, another one that I saw that I
absolutely love and it does point in a different direction
from where I'm headed with one game this weekend. But
stats are stats. I can't change them. Since twenty eighteen,
teams who are on a four plus game winning streak
against the spread and straight up who didn't make the
(14:19):
playoffs the year prior are fourteen twenty six and one ats.
That includes two teams, the Patriots and the Bears. I
am not betting the Pats this week. I do have
a bet on Chicago at plus six and a half.
That was one of my favorite plays early in the week,
just trying to get ahead of some potential Lamar news
(14:40):
of him not playing looks like he's going to but
even still, I like some value on I see some
value in Chicago.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
Head to head for there is Yeah, what do we
got go? I'll still sit with it.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
I'm good with six and a half, honestly, Like I
can't even get there with Lamar.
Speaker 3 (14:57):
You gotta send me crab cakes, frozen crab cakes when
the Ravens went by seven plus.
Speaker 2 (15:02):
Oh, I'll take that. On the other side, I love
crab cakes.
Speaker 3 (15:05):
Okay, all right it scrap cake be Are we both
from Baltimore?
Speaker 2 (15:09):
By the way, I'm I'm not.
Speaker 3 (15:12):
I'm from I'm from like I'm from outside of Philly,
between Philly and Baltimore, but uh no, I'm not from Baltimore.
I had season tickets for thirteen years, but I uh no,
I'm not from Baltimore.
Speaker 1 (15:26):
But unfortunately I was born there in eighty five and
I left before the Those are my choice. I was
a kid, but I left before the Ravens came around
and became a Dolphins fan as the Ravens were coming
into existence. So I have love for the Ravens. I
am an Orioles fan, but Scott stuck with the shitty Dolphins.
(15:46):
But as far as that, as far as.
Speaker 3 (15:48):
They go on getting back to the NC I see
thing real quick. Yeah, should you look in the market
right now, just market power ratings for the top six
teams in the market are in the NF have the
Lions Packers. This is just current right now, so it
also accounts for injuries. Lions Packers, Rams and Eagles, Bills
(16:09):
and Ravens aren't too far behind now that they're getting healthier,
but they're still TVD on Lamar Jackson's status. But that
for the top six in the NFC, it has not
been like that for a while. I mean for the
past couple of years it's Chiefs, Ravens and Bills at
the top and clearly at the top. So yeah, the
(16:30):
top of the NFC is definitely rising.
Speaker 2 (16:35):
So we're going head to head on Ravens Bears.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
I will obviously feel better about this if there's some
late news that Lamar isn't gonna play, or if we
see Lamar play but his hamstring is still giving him issues.
All of those things are factors here, and I think
the Bears are legitimately good this year, so even just
getting them at plus six plus six and a half,
I'm good with. I understand that this is very this
(17:00):
this is the ultimate get right spot of all the
teams this week. You're talking about a Super Bowl contender
who right now is battling for a top pick in
the NFL Draft, getting star players back, and none bigger
than a guy that's worth about seven points to the spread.
Speaker 2 (17:15):
Totally get that.
Speaker 1 (17:16):
I'm betting against some major get right action here, but
I'm good with that. As far as the other game
that this applies in terms of the teams that are
four to oh ats over the last four weeks that
didn't make the playoffs last year, the Patriots are the
other one. They're favored by seven against the Browns. I
have no action on this game. I'm not sure where
you stand on this. This is a really interesting one.
(17:38):
The Browns haven't won a game away from home yet,
no surprise, they're bad. The Patriots are tied with the
Broncos and Bears with a four game winning streak. That's
the longest current streak in the NFL. Drake May is
the third most sacked quarterback in the NFL. That's a
bad matchup going against the Browns defense that can get
after the passer. Are we overvaluing the Browns though, because
(17:59):
here we go. Power ratings probably have this closer to six,
and you're paying attacks on how good New England has been.
But are we overvaluing Cleveland based on a blowout win
against the sinking ship in Miami? Conklin also back on
the offensive line, This is a really interesting read. Probably
a stay away from me.
Speaker 3 (18:17):
Yeah, I mean I make it right around seven, So
nothing to do here. I mean, I want to see
Drake Mays look fantastic, but he hasn't really faced any
good defenses. So I mean, if you look at the
schedule of defenses they faced, this will be a good test.
But the Browns defense isn't the same animal away from home.
It's additional. It's just not a great matchup for the Browns,
which is why I can't get there or can't look
(18:39):
their way. The Browns want to run the ball, obviously
with Jyllan Gabriel, and they're receiving mm. It's not a
great passing offense, but the Pats run defense is very good.
You got to throw to move the ball on them.
That's not the Browns strong suit. So yeah, and then
in order to both of these defenses are susceptible to
explosive passes. Well, guess what, Drake May's been one of
(19:01):
the best deep ball throwers, and they do have an
explosive passing offense, and the Browns certainly do not. So
I do not think it's a good matchup for Cleveland,
but I am interested. I'm close to market, and I
am interested to see Drake May go up against a
much better defense on paper than what he's seen for
(19:21):
the most part so far this season. But you can't
argue with his numbers, even adjusting for opponent, he's been
one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
Still to come to Kings and a Queen the parlay
gets nominated this week, But first a word from our
first Lady as she chats about DraftKings.
Speaker 6 (19:37):
The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where
new customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred
dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins and
three months of NBA League Pass to get started. Use
promo Code of Favorites when signing up with DraftKings. Again,
he used Code Favorites when signing up and bet five
bucks to get three hundred back and bonus bets if
your bet wins plus three months of NBA League. So
(20:00):
the crown is yours.
Speaker 1 (20:02):
Kendrew's not here to waffle on a pick for her
weekly pickle, So I will ask you, among all the
games on the board this week, what has been the
toughest for you to convince yourself in either direction to
get any sort of action on.
Speaker 3 (20:16):
I mean, if I have to convince myself, I'm staying away.
That's how it always is. So like Patriots, I just
explained my thinking with Patriots Browns, that's a stay away.
Speaker 1 (20:26):
Let me let me ask this in a different way
where you have been convinced in your mind on a
side and then have also convinced yourself on the other side.
So not one that you look at and say I
have no read on this one where you've had to
read and then that read has shifted. I think that's
that's the bigger pickle for any better is thinking that
(20:46):
they have a good read on a game and then
starting to look at it in a completely opposite direction.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
I mean Cowboys Broncos. I can see the case for
both sides. I mean eating bo Nicks to win by
margin not great, but the Cowboys offense and look, the
Cowboys offense has been incredible. Can Denver actually keep up?
Then again, look at some of Dallas's results on the
road to get blown out at Chicago, lose that Carolina,
(21:13):
This defense is still really bad. So I could see
both sides of the coin there. Titans Colts was an
easy pass for me, like the Indies should score at Will.
I did like some of the things Tennessee did with
simplifying their offense last week. But Jeffrey Simmons Sneid probably
(21:33):
going to be out. I don't know how they get stops,
but I laying I don't want to lay fourteen and
a half in the NFL. Like the Colts could be
up twenty one, that's a complete blowout in the NFL,
and Tennessee could score a garbage some touchdown and cover
like there's it's not college football, there's no incentive to
blow teams out, and so like, I don't think I would.
(21:55):
I don't think I've ever laid over two touchdowns in
the NFL. So that was an easy, easy crossout out.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
What about team total over that was one that I
was looking at if you want to bet the.
Speaker 3 (22:04):
Game script dependent though, like because Tennessee can't score and
then like it's what's what's their team total?
Speaker 2 (22:11):
Thirty and a half?
Speaker 3 (22:12):
Yeah, so like if it's like twenty eight three and
then it just dies and or like there's a couple
of fields. I don't know. Team totals aren't my specialty.
I mean I would think that Indian doors against that
defense without I mean, with thatou Jeffrey Simmons, you can
do whatever you want. That's snead. They traded brownly. That
defense is a shell you and Tennessee actually and does
(22:33):
go fast. They use tempo, so that helps your case
as well. But no, I would only look over in
that case. Dolphins Falcons is a like I'm not betting
the Dolphins, but I'm not probably not laying seven and
a half of the Atlanta and Bill's Panthers is one
(22:54):
where I think it's completely dependent on what the Bills
op to do out of the buy. Do they come
out and say we're gonna throw And if they do
and just let Josh Allen cook, then I think they're
gonna move the ball. It will and I think they're
gonna cover, and I think the game probably goes over.
But if they try to run it, Carolina is at
a top three run defense this year. The run defense
(23:15):
has been tremendous, so if they try to run it,
then all of a sudden, Carolina is getting stops. Carolina
can keep running it. The Bill's run defense has been bad,
the Carolina run offense has been good. They can keep
running it, keep the ball away from Allen, stay in
the game. But if Bills come out and throw it,
get a lead for Sandy Dalton to have to throw,
(23:35):
That's where I think Carolina get in trouble. So I
think it really comes down to the Bills approach and
how they call plays in this game and their run
pass split. Because they've been very run heavy. I think
this is a game where you want to be very
pass heavy. Do I trust them or know either way
I don't, so that's an easy pass.
Speaker 2 (23:51):
Oh yeah, we are.
Speaker 1 (23:52):
We're in lockstep with some of these games that are
giving us fits. Cowboys Broncos. Has me I've gone early
in the week, I was convinced I was going to
bet the Broncos. I've gone completely in the other direction,
and then I end up going I don't want to
go against how strongly I felt earlier in the week.
Think about some of the factors here, how this points
(24:13):
in both directions. The Broncos are unbeaten at home, but
they're also one in two ats at home, so they're winning.
But they're a little overvalued. I think people perhaps overvaluing
that home field advantage. We viewed Denver as one of
the top home field advantages in the NFL, but perhaps
that's getting baked in a little bit too much. You
also had Denver with this epic comeback last week. Evan
(24:33):
pointed this out in the article Teams that make the
sort of comeback that the Broncos made last week against
the Giants cover at a rate of forty three percent
next the very next week over the last ten years.
No surprise there, because it's so unlikely to do that,
and it probably means that you're not really that good
in the first place. So that leads you the way
of the Cowboys. The public has been getting absolutely crushed
(24:54):
this year. Eighty three percent of the bets, ninety two
percent of the money on the Cowboys. Only San Francisco
is receiving more action this week. That points me in
the direction of the Broncos is fading the public.
Speaker 3 (25:07):
Also, if you want to throw another one, no, but
they do last week they were like ten and oh,
so you never know. I don't want to base too
much off that. I would say that that.
Speaker 1 (25:15):
Has been my most tried and true method this year,
is getting back to the well on fade public sentiment.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
Yeah, I mean that that abs and foods. I mean
you look, books can do that because they have they're
getting well, they're getting plus one ten. You have to
have minus one then, and you got to you gotta
do it on every single bet. So I mean with
the Cowboys, yeah, I mean, look, the Broncos of one,
like you mentioned the comeback, the Broncs had that crazy
comeback as the Eagles lay an egg the next week
against the Jets. I mean their wins this year have
(25:42):
come by four two one. They lost by one, They
lost by three. They only beat the Titans by eight.
You know, their one blaw win came over the Bengals
with Jake Browning basically just vomiting on himself. Like, this
is a team that's just gonna play close games, like
not really cable of building margin. And the Cowboys can
keep up with pretty much anybody, and the certain haven't
(26:03):
certained he isn't as valuable against a team like the
Cowboys because they have two stug receivers. Right, a lot
of times he's eliminating one of them. But yeah, I
could I could see that going either way. But if
I had to at three and a half, it'd be
Dallas or nothing. The other game, yeah, the last one
is Eagles Giants. I kind of like the Eagles, but
(26:25):
I hate laying seven and a half with them, So
everything's number depended as seven. I like the Eagles, but
even at I don't like laying seven with Eagles. Like,
this is a team that get their offense goes into
just long lulls. Once they have a lead, they kind
of sit on it. This is not a team that
you really want to light points with, but it's a
really good spot. The Giants also have some potential injuries
(26:45):
on defense that I'm monitoring, but and that's really what
cost in the game against Denver. They lost two guys
in the secondary and Denver ended up coming back. But
the Eagles, they just played the Giants a couple of
weeks ago. The Giants have been dominating in first quarters.
They've been the second best team in the first quarter
EPA wise since Dart took over. Only team better is
the Chiefs. And what is that? So like their script
(27:08):
and everything early with this unique Dart offense has been
very good and that enables them to play how they
need to keep playing because they have a lead. The
problem is they just played the Eagles two weeks ago.
The Eagles kind of know what this Giants offense look
looks like, so and it's a tough spot for the Giants.
How do they bounce back from that meltdown? I don't know.
But if the Eagles are prepared and they get ahead
(27:28):
of the Giants, I don't think the Giants are built
to come from behind. The Giants run defense is really bad.
I think, you know, the Eagles might have found something
on offense last week, going under center more actually throwing
it downfield. So yeah, you know the Eagles, this is good.
They're gonna be They're gonna be ready for this game
because the Giants basically embarrassed them on national TV. We're
talking all kinds of shit. So I think it's a
really good spot for the Eagles. But it's not a
(27:49):
team I love needing to win by a ten plus,
so that one is has been a little bit of
a pickle as well.
Speaker 1 (27:57):
I think it's important to talk this stuff through because
this is what every better goes through, is these sort
of back and forth.
Speaker 2 (28:03):
There's a lot of games that are on the card.
Speaker 1 (28:05):
We have our picks with full conviction coming up in
a moment, Evan, before we move off of the waffling
the pickling, is there one that you're looking at or
a couple where you say, I just don't even know
what to do with that.
Speaker 4 (28:17):
I'll just say this off the bat.
Speaker 5 (28:19):
Eight games on the card this week of thirteen games
with the spread of six or more, which is just
unbelievable this time of year. Has to do with injuries
a lot of different factors. But if you look at
like seven of those eight teams that are those big
of a favorites, there is like something inherently odd and
not something we're used to about those teams, which is
(28:41):
why I think it's difficult to lay points. So one
by one quickly, it's Flacco and Cincinnati. It's the Ravens
getting back all of their roster, something we haven't seen.
It's like Pennix in Atlanta. I don't know if you
can do that. Philly doesn't cover in any situation really easily.
New England's really new at this Daniel Jones is laying
fourteen points, like each situation is something that I don't
(29:04):
think anyone is like comfortable with. I mean, I think
numbers tell you to do one thing, but there's also
a gut feeling about a bet.
Speaker 4 (29:10):
In what you've seen, and all of those favorites make
me nervous.
Speaker 3 (29:14):
So yeah, I'm on the flip side. It's like, oh,
but then you got a bet the Titans. Oh then
you got a bet Gaber on the road, right.
Speaker 5 (29:19):
So very difficult spread week, yeah, right, or the difficult
spread week, or the.
Speaker 1 (29:23):
Or the disaster that is the Miami Dolphins. And you
know the thing is, I want to make sure that
I lay You're in the right context with that, because
they bottomed out against the Browns. The Dolphins have been competitive,
and if you listen to the narrative from the talking
heads this week, it is as if this team has
quit on Mike McDaniel for a month. That's not true.
It's been one bad week and it was one bad
(29:44):
week in weather, and Tua has never played well in
those situations. So I do think that if you're if
you're just taking the number and talking about that game specifically,
the Dolphins are probably the right side. I do have
the Falcons teas down to one, so I'm gonna I'm
gonna off of that.
Speaker 2 (30:01):
Let's talk luck for a moment.
Speaker 1 (30:02):
Nick Giffen does phenomenal work with his weekly luck rankings,
and we've got some deltas that are out there. Jets
at Bengals A grade on the New York Jets. Giants
at Eagles A grade on the New York Giants, even
though they beat the Eagles pretty soundly just a couple
(30:22):
of weeks ago. I was surprised, not surprised in the
first one. The Bengals obviously feel like they have a
rabbit's foot and the Jets have the opposite. But the
Giants an unlucky team. I know last week they lost
to Denver in sort of a weird way, but the.
Speaker 3 (30:38):
Unluckiest loss of the year besides Tennessee. And they also
were unlucky against the Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (30:45):
But they've been playing great usually.
Speaker 3 (30:47):
What I'm saying, they put all that's looking at is
how many wins you should have versus how many wins
you do, so like the Eagles should have. I mean,
Eagles deserve to lose by like a touchdown. Last week
against Minnesota, they were out success rate by like twelve percent.
They had to pick. The Vikings had one touchdown in
six red zone trips. Uh you know there was a
drop touchdown, a tall touch up. Everything went wrong. The
(31:08):
Eagles did face all their damage on like fourth down bombs,
so that should have been a loss. The Rams game
obviously should have been a loss. They went on a
blocked fuel goal after they were down by twenty. So yeah,
the Eagles should have like a couple of fewer losses
and like easily could have two fewer losses.
Speaker 1 (31:26):
And you sound like somebody that's lost money betting on
the Eagles.
Speaker 3 (31:30):
Mon I did. I lost the Rams and the Vikings game,
which were graded like clear winners.
Speaker 2 (31:34):
Which you can hear that, you can hear the salt
in the vinegar, but what are.
Speaker 3 (31:37):
You gonna do? Also, I had the Giants against the
Cowboys to close out a round robin. I just needed
them to win and then they somehow outed down on
the loss in overtime. No joy. But uh yeah, so
that's all that's looking at. So that doesn't surprise me.
Like the Giants have been on I mean, last week
they had like a ninety win probably only one point,
stunning that the Broncos sixty to one live on the
(32:01):
money line at one point. So yeah, the Eagles definitely
have been lucky. Their schedules tough. It's they're gonna get
their medicine. I'm just not sure it's this week with
the Giants because I think I just think it's a
tough spot and the Eagles will be ready here and
I don't think it's a great matchup for the Giants
unless they jump ahead. But I'm not sure that they're
gonna be able to hear with their script after just
(32:22):
playing the Eagles a couple of weeks ago. So the
Jets would be the one of those two that I like.
Speaker 1 (32:26):
And I believe we're going to talk about that within
our parlay discussion. Here's one last interesting one. Nick Giffan
also does work on luck totals. I full disclosure, I
do bet NBA and Major League Baseball totals quite frequently.
I could be the world's worst NFL totals better. I
just I just don't view the league that way.
Speaker 2 (32:47):
I don't.
Speaker 1 (32:47):
I don't have a lens for it. But Broncos Cowboys
under fifty and a half is that has to be
If we were ranking contrarian plays across the board this week,
that would be in the top three because those two
teams can score. So I'm and I'm thinking and betting
any any under where the Cowboys are involved. But that
(33:08):
is a luck under right there? Would you be willing
to place a bet on that stucky?
Speaker 3 (33:13):
Maybe a fifty one or better? Which is a key
in the NFL? I mean, did the Broncos defense is
very good? The Cowboys offense isn't the same away from
home and bow Knicks is bon NICKX like that bo
Knicks will bonicks the offense into oblivion for like multiple quarters.
The had zero points against the Giants for three quarters
and then they had to go into comeback mode against
pre de defense with multiple second or injuries. So you
(33:36):
think that this but that this is a Broncos scene
that just scored thirteen points against the Jets. They scored
you know, they they were getting shut out against the
Eagles for three quarters. They were going to shut out
against the Giants for three quarters. So yeah, there's a
pat like to get over fifty one. You need, you
need a lot. You can't have a lot go wrong.
You need you can't be set on for field goals,
(33:58):
have red zone turnovers, and can tailspin a offense for
a couple of quarters. And to Broncos defense is very
talented and so I can see the path at fifty
one or better, but obviously won't be enjoyable betting a
Cowboys under I can see it.
Speaker 1 (34:15):
Four o'clock window, Cowboys under not things. It's time for
the reason you all came here today. Two Kings and
a Queen Parlay. We took another team l last week,
but all we can do is get back on the horse.
Here are two Kings and a Queen parlay, presented by
draft Kings of the Crown is yours. We'll start with
(34:39):
the person who isn't here. Kendra has submitted her plays.
I thought for sure we were gonna get some sort
of a anytime touchdown from a tight end. It is
tight ends Day on Sunday, by the way, the fourth Sunday.
Speaker 3 (34:50):
Here, Scott Hansen say that fifty million times.
Speaker 1 (34:53):
Is your buddy raybaon on any of the tight end
props this week for the cash The tight end stuff
went well, it went so wild last year. I was
talking with David Payton, our producer, before we popped on today.
It's bound to just tilt in the other direction because
people are gonna go wild on Sunday for these touchdown
tight end props.
Speaker 3 (35:13):
At least Kelsey's not playing on National tight Ends Stack
because that's when Scott Anson.
Speaker 2 (35:16):
Really yeah right, Well, she doesn't have one of those Jets.
Speaker 1 (35:22):
Giants are her too, so she is going East Rutherford
action here. Giants plus seven and a half against the Eagles,
Jets plus six and a half against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Speaker 2 (35:34):
I was going to tee up the Jets.
Speaker 1 (35:35):
Once I saw that on our little Google doc, I
decided to take it off so my voute would be
on the Jets here. This Bengals team is not real
and if you look at every single direction of how
to bet a game in the NFL, it would point
you in the way of the New York Jets. Aaron
Glenn hasn't committed to a quarterback yet. I think at
(35:57):
this point we all hope it's to Rod Taylor. Under
Zach Taylor. The Bengals are two and six ATS when
playing at home off of a night game, two and
five ATS with extra time to prepare. In a non
borrow quarterbacked game, They're at home one in prime time
black all looks amazing.
Speaker 2 (36:15):
I'm not buying any of it.
Speaker 1 (36:17):
And the Jets, I mean you talk about do I
mean this team is overdue for a win, so perhaps
even a sprinkle on the money line. But I love
the Jets this week. That's my favorite bets, so that
would be my vote. I do like the Giants. I
just I'm afraid to buy high on the Aura, as
Kendro would put it, of Jackson Dart and Cam Skataboo.
(36:38):
It just feels like it almost feels like the they're like.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
The cute new team. I just I'm not fully buying
it yet.
Speaker 1 (36:44):
The Eagles, as much as they are a slog to watch,
it's still they're still a superpower in the NFL.
Speaker 2 (36:50):
So that one I'm a little bit slower to get
to the window on. But I love the Jets.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
No Giants. We're going with the Jets. Hopefully Garret Wilson
maybe plays. I don't know there's a buye, but I mean,
do the Jets really care about it?
Speaker 5 (37:00):
Buye?
Speaker 3 (37:00):
I don't know. Sauce Corners in a covert protocol, but
Michael Carter's back in the secondary. You got a couple
other guys and that's going to be one of the
big questions against their receivers. But this is a Jets team.
You mentioned, They've been extremely unlucky. I mean they have
covered a bunch of games, Like in this price range
they covered. They were like plus seven at Tampa and covered,
had a chance to win. They covered. They were this
around this price on a neutral against the Broncos a
(37:25):
couple of weeks back. So like now we're the Bengals
are laying six and a half because Joe Flacco had
his one explosion game. This is still one of the worst.
The Bengals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL,
one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. They
have been able to run the ball all year. The
Jets defense is top seven in rush and pass success rate.
The Bengals are bottom five in both. Like, the Jets
(37:46):
should be able to run the ball year even with
that is no Garret Wilson, I'm assuming it's tyrot or Trod,
my guy. I call him ty God. He's thirty four
to twenty one and four against the spread in his career.
Speaker 2 (37:56):
Covers will call whatever he wants, just to call.
Speaker 3 (37:59):
Him sixty two sixty five percent against the spread. As
a dog, he's nine three and one against his privan
catching six or more. The Jets of a minus nine
turnover differential. They forced one turnover all year. They're so
overdue for turnovers. Flacco will give you the ball. So yeah,
and the Blengals don't blitz. They don't bring pressure if
that's really what's killed all the all the Jets quarterbacks.
(38:19):
But I think actually Tad is better than than fields
right now. So there are some concerning injuries for the Jets.
The Bengals have some extra rest, but like, this team
should not be laying six and a half here. So yeah,
we're going with the New York Football Jets.
Speaker 2 (38:31):
What about you.
Speaker 3 (38:33):
I'm gonna my two choices are the Ravens, but I
know you're not going to pick that, so we're gonna
and I don't blame you with the Lamar uncertainty, so
we're gonna go with the Commanders plus twelve and a half.
Like this is assuming, Like I don't think that the
drop off between Daniels and Mariota is this big right now.
Like Daniels is not playing well this year, there's been
(38:54):
no chemistry with the offense. We've seen Mariota come in
and be very competent run this offense the Chiefs are
doing with offensive line injuries. It looks like McLaurin and
Deebo are going to be back. You should get a
focused effort here from the Commanders after they got blown
out against Dallas. Everyone is so high in the cheeks.
I get it. I love their offense too, but some
(39:14):
offensive line injuries you can run on them, which Washington
certainly can do. Mariota can run this off This is
a big number. This is a number that you get
against like a completely Yeah, they were just laying this
number to the Raiders without Bowers and without Colton Miller
and rate this completely broken Raiders team. Like this is
(39:35):
still a functional Washington offense that even if you're blowing
them out by like seventeen, you can still get in
the back door too many points. We're gonna go with
the Commanders Monday Night, catching twelve and a half, little
Bilos cell high spot there.
Speaker 2 (39:49):
Very much self. I am game for that.
Speaker 1 (39:51):
I like the Commanders play, don't love Mariota, but I'm
willing to stomach that now, Evan, just for the sake
of content. If you to break the tie between the
Commanders of plus twelve and a half or the Ravens
at minus six and a half, where would you have
placed your vote?
Speaker 5 (40:10):
I want nothing to do with Chicago and Baltimore. I
just way too many question marks for me. I think
Washington's the better play. I agree with Stuck. Jayden's fantastic.
We saw what he can do, but this year the
drop off hasn't been that drastic. And if you look
at it like this, which I know it's a little
bit of a different way of looking at it, but
the look ahead, like what we assumed Washington would be
(40:33):
is casey minus three and a half. That's just way
too drastic of a difference in that type of game,
and Kansas City's looked way too good that I would
be looking in the other direction. Like, do I expect
them to win? I do, but I think seven, eight, ten,
Like there's just eleven. There's a lot of different options
here for that number, and listen.
Speaker 3 (40:54):
And the Chiefs just sit on it when they get
leads too.
Speaker 4 (40:56):
Yeah, yeah, I think Washington's the right side.
Speaker 1 (41:00):
Washington is going to have to score some points though.
The Chiefs offense is averaging thirty one and a half
points per game, four hundred and twelve yards of total
offense over their last four games, So the Commanders are
going to have to move the ball otherwise we're going
to be in trouble with that number. But it's still
a great buying opportunity for the Commanders.
Speaker 3 (41:18):
Did it also worth bet you? I'll reiterate. Chiefs said three.
Josh Simmons is away from the team. They're left tackle.
I hope everything's okay with them. I didn't see an update.
I hope it's nothing serious, but he's dealing with a
personal issue. Tray Smith and Jawan Taylor. Tray Smith's one
of your better off its linean and your right tackle
got hurt last week, So like that could throw a
(41:38):
little wrench into this. But Washington, especially with McLaurin and
Debo back, but they can run the ball, and the
Chiefs run defense has not been good. They lost another
defensive lineman last week. And who's now an I are
And so Washington, I think should be able to run it.
And what does that mean? Keep Mahomes on the sideline?
So I think they can put up their fair share
of points. I think they can get to seventeen to
(42:01):
twenty points in this and you know that I think
the Chiefs probably get to like twenty eight to thirty one.
So yeah, I think, But just numbers wise, this is
too much like this is Daniels has not been great
this year, and the timing of the receiver has been off.
It's just and we've seen Mariota run this offense confidently.
(42:22):
This is not like this is a bottom feeder line
like the Raiders is one of the worst teams gonna
felt the moment without their best players. And this is
what the number was last week. Too much inflation. So yeah,
we're rolling with and Avid real quick. Who would you
went with Giants or Jets as the New York guy.
Speaker 4 (42:37):
I probably wouldn't go with the Giants.
Speaker 5 (42:39):
I just think that a game is the extra yeah,
and you it's the ultimate you got to see it
to prove it type of game. Like every single week,
the Giants look better than we think they are, and
it just yeah, on paper, the Eagles obviously look better,
but when you get on the field, there's just something
a little different.
Speaker 3 (42:55):
I don't know, they fade and then they miraculously find
ways to cover.
Speaker 1 (43:00):
Sure, yeah, they are definitely I love fading the Eagles,
and I don't know if I've lost as much as
Stucky on that endeavor. But betting of the Broncos the
week that they were able to come back against Philly,
that was one of my better wins on the year.
But betting the Giants is just simply more fun than
betting the Jets. But we're not in this for fun.
We're in this for wins.
Speaker 3 (43:19):
You might not say that when Deontay Banks as the player.
I don't even know who they're going to start at
the DeVos out But anyway, all right, what are your
two that you're going with?
Speaker 1 (43:27):
By the way, public flogging on Monday night, sixty six
percent of the bets right now on the Kansas City Chiefs.
No surprise there as part of the reason why we
like the Commanders. Saints plus four against the Tampa Bay Bucks,
Texans minus one against the San Francisco forty nine Ers.
Speaker 2 (43:42):
I'll go into cell.
Speaker 1 (43:43):
Mode for these and then I'll let you pick between
the two. The injuries are catching up to Tampa short
week now they go on the road in division. Baker
has struggled in these spots four and five in those
positions at ATS. As a favorite against the NFC South,
I eliminate everything involved with Cleveland when I do anything
Baker related stat wise, So thank you for putting that
(44:05):
in the primer.
Speaker 2 (44:06):
Evan, this is a luck ranking game.
Speaker 1 (44:08):
On top of it, Rattler through three picks last week,
he hadn't thrown an interception since Week three. If he
can just play it safe, simple style of quarterback play,
I think they can move on Tampa. Chris Alave has
been playing some really good football. I can't quit the Saints.
I've bet this team a lot this year two and
five ATS, so it doesn't exactly paid off, but I'm
(44:29):
gonna go back to the well here and fade the Bucks.
As far as the other play, everything points to Houston here.
San Francisco's a cell high, Houston's a by low. They
are a disgusting football team. One offensive touchdown last week
in primetime. They have been awful in these primetime games.
Just think back to that game against the Tampa Bay Bucks.
(44:51):
The sharp side was the Texans, just like it was
against the Seahawks.
Speaker 2 (44:56):
They have not been coming through.
Speaker 1 (44:57):
But when you look at what the P rating is
going to tell you is that the Texans should be favored.
Speaker 2 (45:03):
I think most people that look at this game are
going to.
Speaker 1 (45:05):
Say, well, how in the world are the San Francisco
forty nine ers not favored?
Speaker 2 (45:09):
They're the better team.
Speaker 1 (45:10):
Houston's defense is allowing fourteen point seven points per game.
Shanahan's teams the last nine times they've faced the defense
allowing seventeen points per game or less one to eight
against the spread. I mean, the Texans might be bad,
but all signs point to them in this particular game.
Speaker 3 (45:28):
Yeah, I like both. I like both of these. Good
job by Kendra. You and maybe I'm rubbing off on
you guys because I used to not like all your
plays in the beginning of the year. Now this week
I like all of your plays. So good work. Here,
I'm going to beat bet both of these. I like
the Texans. I mean, look the forty nine ers, they
had an all out effort against Atlanta. But I mean
Penix is just off. That defense is really bad. It's
(45:49):
a bottom five defense on paper right now because they
don't have Warner and they don't have both. They just
lost off, they have other injuries, Green, their corner got hurt,
and they don't get pressure. They're dead last and pressure
rate by a wide margin out boss on the field.
What does that mean? That means like Stroud's actually gonna
have time to operate and even if Nico Collins doesn't play,
they're going to be able to throw the ball. He's
(46:10):
look at the Ravens games. Stroud looked great. The Titans
game teams that weren't able to get pressure when he
was playing, like the Rams, the Seahawks, He's elite defensive linset.
They will just they just crumble the awful the Houston
offensive line and they can't do anything. So this is
a game where indoors against a bad defense, even if
Nico Collins doesn't play, even if Christian Kirk doesn't play.
(46:32):
I think with the Iowa State receiving core that he
might have. They're gonna be able to move the ball.
And then you have the best unit on the field
in the Houston defense, still one of the best defenses
in the NFL. And look, Matt Jones has been great
as a backup, but I mean look that, but he's
had one touchdown, four interceptions in his last three or
four games. And who is he played. I mean he's
(46:53):
played the Falcons defense, the Bucks defense with all their injuries,
you know, the Jags, the Rams, the Saints, like this
is a big step up in class for mac Jones
and this defense at home desperation spot, they're gonna be ready.
And look the forty nine ers Yester five and two.
They should have lost to the Cardinals. Cardinals have a
(47:15):
wide open they drop it literally wide open and drop.
They win that game. They won by one. The Saints
had the ball with a chance to win. They win
by five. The Seahawks had a chance to win, it
was a fumble late. They won by four. They beat
the Rams in overtime. They then they you know, they
beat the Falcons last week by ten. That's that they
have four. There are four wins by one possession. They
could have all went the other way. This team usually
(47:37):
could have two or three wins. Credit the Channa for
when he's done with all the injuries, but I think
Houston gets it done. I also like your other pick, which.
Speaker 2 (47:45):
Was who it was the Saints four The Saints.
Speaker 3 (47:48):
Yeah, I agree with everything he said. The Bucks injuries
before the bye week, they're going to be more cautious
with who they hold out. Baker kind of came back
down to earth last week. Maybe some of the injuries
on the offensive line widerc I mean, he was a
Bucks team that was Baker was playing at a god
level and they were barely winning games, like last minute
drives every week. Last week against a bunch of backups,
(48:08):
he wasn't playing at God level and they get blown out.
So yeah, he might be coming back down to earth
a bit. And the injuries around him aren't helping. Bucky
Irving not being in it doesn't help, and this Bucks
defense is still gettable. Worry about the center injury against
Videvea for the Saints. I'll see how they mix it up.
But I like both of these. My vote would be
We're gonna go with the Texans. That's what I have
(48:29):
the most conviction on, but I'm okay going with either. Ivan,
do you have a preference?
Speaker 5 (48:33):
I love both of these sides. I've been sitting here
trying to figure it out. I think New Orleans is
the right side based off a number of factors. Something
looked wrong with Baker overall in that game, Like I
don't even necessarily know if it was the injuries or anything.
He just looked off the entire.
Speaker 3 (48:46):
Night in mis step, wide open touchdown.
Speaker 1 (48:49):
He's not comfortable with his receivers. So who are we
going with here? Texans or Saints?
Speaker 5 (48:54):
I Mean, my only question was going to be this
when Nico Collins gets officially announced out, which we soon.
Speaker 3 (49:00):
That's what I'm trying to figure out.
Speaker 5 (49:01):
You think it'll come down a little bit because I'm
just I'm a little worried going against San Francisco with
all that they do, and I keep doing that every
week and I keep losing.
Speaker 4 (49:10):
But I think the Texans are the right side here.
Speaker 2 (49:12):
All right.
Speaker 3 (49:12):
But because of that and at DraftKings right now, the
Saints are the best price of market. So let's go
up the Saints plus four and a half.
Speaker 1 (49:19):
All right, deal, Saints plus four and a half is
my play. In the Two Kings and a Queen parlay
presented by DraftKings, Kendra has the Jets plus six and
a half against the Bengals and stuck. You'll have to
wait till Monday night for that one. Commanders plus twelve
and a half against the Chiefs. That will do it
for today's episode special thanks to our producers Gifford Gold
(49:41):
and David Paine. The Favorites will return on Sunday night.
All the week eight recap for you. Catch it right
here on the Action Network YouTube page. Thanks so much
for tuning in. We'll see you next time here on
the Favorites presented by DraftKings.
Speaker 2 (49:54):
Let's cash these tickets I go. Action Network reminds you
please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about
has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to
(50:14):
seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Hosts And Creators
Chad Millman
Simon Hunter
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