December 2, 2025 • 49 mins
The Favorites is back for a look at NFL Week 14! Action Network experts Stuckey, Kendra Middleton and Brandon Kravitz go digging early in the week after another New England Patriots win on Monday Night Football. Are they the real deal and can they be trusted? Is egging houses really still happening? How will Herbert's non-throwing hand hold up? Thursday Night Football brings an exciting matchup between Detroit and Dallas, both off big Thanksgiving games. Is this a must win game for each team's playoff chances? Plus, the crew each plants their flag early on a game in NFL Week 14 and we get some nuggets from the weekly NFL Primer courtesy of Action Director of Research Evan Abrams, delivering everything needed to start digging into the betting week in the NFL. Don't forget to clear that browser history and catch The Favorites every Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz, back
at it on this fine Tuesday morning. Kendrick Middleton and
the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation Stuckey, who is very
much on the Men today, back for today's episode. We've
got our Plant the Flag game for Week fourteen, after
(00:31):
the blood bath that was Week thirteen for all of us.
Our official Thursday Night football preview Cowboys Lions should be
a good one, and of course the main event Evans
Tuesday Primer Monday Night Football kind of a snoozer. New
England pulled away early on in this game. Do we
actually feel like we know who this New England Patriots
(00:55):
team is? They do have some impressive wins on the season,
but we're talking about an eleven win team. It feels
like every week they're beating up on the giants of
the world. And here you have Drake May, who, by
the way, right now odds on favorite to win the
NFL MVP at minus one thirty five, has not thrown
(01:15):
for three hundred yards in a single game. Yet I'm
not taking away from his MVP candidacy and saying that
he has been hyper efficient. His long ball is top
notch in the NFL, and he runs the ball as well.
I just wonder how many NFL MVPs at the quarterback
position could go an entire season without throwing for three
hundred yards. It's a bizarre sort of year for New England. Kendra,
(01:38):
you're in the market. Do you feel like you have
a good read on exactly what this team is or
do you think there's still some fraud within them? So?
Speaker 2 (01:48):
I think I do know who this team is just
from existing in this space this season. I think that
they are not the most talented team. But I think
we've talked about how we think they like each other, right,
But I think that they're the type of team who
is coached by Mike Vrabel to do the little things
and to do the little things so well that they're
perfect that in combination with Drake May kind of elevating
(02:11):
himself so highly this year. I think that that's what
we're looking at, right. It's like they like each other,
they got the luck out of Drake May, and they're
doing the little things, and they're doing the little things
hard like the physicality. Difference between the Giants and the
Patriots last night is one of those, you know, things
that people consider little but really make a huge difference
down in and down out, you know. So I think
(02:33):
that that to this new England Patriots team is I
think that they're going to continue with the strength of schedule.
They have to be able to do those things and
do those things successfully. I do think at some point
they will slip up and lose a weird game that
they shouldn't. I think they it'll maybe be you know,
I do think that they lose to the Bills. They
have to kind of where the Bills need to be,
(02:54):
and I think later in the year, when you're beat up,
you know, your quarterback's been there season after season. Also
play in cold weather, so there's no advantage there. I
think that they lose that game, but maybe one other
game that's just like a random slip up for them.
But I do think that they make the postseason, probably
a first round exit, depending on who they get, just
(03:14):
because the talent discrepancy, like I said, is there. They
like each other, they play hard, they do the things
they are you know, do well. But not being said,
I think that that's probably where they slip up just
because you can't avoid the talent discrepancy in the postseason
in the NFL.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
Very much bloated by an easy schedule throughout the course
of the season. But Stucky, have you seen enough consistency
from them where you feel like, when it actually matters,
this team is clearly going to be in a prime
position heading into the playoffs?
Speaker 3 (03:42):
Are they going to be a team that you believe in.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
When we've got we've got lines coming out with the
Patriots against teams like the like the Bills, like potentially
Kansas City Chiefs or or an LA Chargers, where you're
in that do or die situation, Patriots probably gonna be favored.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
Are we getting to the point where we trust them
in those situations?
Speaker 1 (04:05):
Or are they gonna be like last year's Minnesota team
where the record doesn't necessarily tell the story of who
they really are.
Speaker 4 (04:14):
Yeah, I mean, they're obviously not as good as the
record that but I mean they benefited from one of
the easiest schedules in the NFL. I mean, look at
the defenses they faced. They've also won some close games.
You know, you can go look back to that Falcons
game that could have went either way, and then they've
had a couple of games at home that just flipped
on special teams like that Giants. The Giants were like
minus seventeen in the first half on special teams that
(04:35):
they gave up a pund return for a touchdown. Although
you have to give credit to Marcus Jones, He's an
electric pund returner. And like Kendrick said, the Patriots do
do all those little things right. And I think Rabel's
very good in game which gives them a little edge
as far as in game management. But I mean last
night it was a pond return for a touchdown. I
dropped a dropped fumble kick return and then young Way,
(04:56):
who I don't know what, I've never seen that before
in my life. He just kicked the ground and missed
the ball by two feet. I guess you don't get
you don't get dopted for a missed gilgal on that,
so maybe he just knew he was going to miss it,
so he just said, you know what, Gil, and you
take a sack. So they got like plus seventeen points.
Especially the same thing happened in a Panthers game earlier
the season, So yeah, they've benefited from an easy schedule.
(05:18):
I mean, I think ultimately, I mean, if you it's
pretty funny if you look from like, for example, from
a DVA perspective, which adjusts for opponent, the Patriots are
like fourteenth and the fourteen to fifteen somewhere around there,
like a league average team. The Bears, who are the
other one seed, are like eighteenth nineteenth, slightly below league
(05:38):
average team. Those are the two one seeds in the NFL.
So you can't judge everything by wins and losses. I
think the market it's kind of where similar to where
I have the Patriots. They're like a plus two the Patriots,
so they're like they're like a I don't know, like
a two point favorite over an average team on a
neutral field. So yeah, there are a couple of points
better than an average team. Do I trust them? I mean,
(06:00):
here's the thing they've been. They've had an East schedule,
they've been really healthy. Now they're starting to finally deal
with some injuries, so we'll see how that plays out.
The good news is they have a buy coming up,
so they survived up up until their bye week. I
think they probably lose the Bills, but you know, coin
flippish game probably lose at Baltimore. But all they have
to do is beat the Jets and Dolphins. No matter
(06:21):
what else happens, they win the division. And obviously they
have their sight set on the one seat as well.
But look, they they're well coached the one if they
get healthy. Their run defense is good, their defense still
has some holes. Their offensive line still isn't great. It's
not the most talented teams Kendra alluded to. But Drake May,
I mean he's I'm a believer in Drake May. I
(06:44):
think most people are. He's starting to establish himself as
one of the better quarterbacks about His deep ball is
a weapon. I mean, his placement of the deep ball
can flip a game no matter who he's playing. So
you know, and if you look at the AFC right now,
you say, like, do you trust the Patriots, I mean,
who are you?
Speaker 1 (07:03):
Like?
Speaker 4 (07:03):
Yeah, this is the team I trust. I mean the
Chiefs are not even favored to make the playoffs. We'll
see if the Ravens make it. The Bills have flaws,
I mean, but like the other AFC teams right now,
the Jags, the Colts, the Broncos, like, this isn't a
murderers ruh. This isn't the AFA of two years ago.
(07:26):
So can the Patriots make a run? Sure? I mean
get in in the AFC and you can make a run.
So yeah, I think they're bound as good as their record.
But they're a good football team.
Speaker 1 (07:36):
They're favored right now to make it out of the
AFC at plus four hundred on DraftKings. They're either going
to end up with the one or the two seed
the way that things are looking right now. If they
were the two seed, they probably end up taking on
a Buffalo team that they've already shown that they can beat.
That's gonna be a tough matchup for them in a
playoff scenario because of what I'm talking about, how much
will you actually trust Drake May and this team that
(07:58):
doesn't feel like they're as good as their record. But
here's the thing, that path that you talk about. Let's
say they end up as the one seed and you
get a three six matchup Colts Jags, Colts knockoff Jacksonville. Now,
all of a sudden, you're into Round two already with
your bye, taking on a Colts team that also is
(08:19):
it very trustworthy. So the path of the AFC Championship
game just depending.
Speaker 4 (08:24):
On the Nickson Denver waiting for you, which isn't that scary,
But yeah, you bring up a good point. The thing
that is one of the biggest wild the two biggest
wild cards about and it's in related to the wild card,
but do the Chiefs end up making it so Chiefs
Texans huge game because then if you like and then
(08:45):
do the Patriots get the one or the two? So
Patriots have they're by then a couple tough games because
if you get that too, and you get you end
up getting either Buffalo or Kansas City or Baltimore. That's
a brutal job. Well Baltimore on can really get in
if they win the division, so they'll they'll be a
four their favorite to win the divisions. They'll be a
(09:06):
four seed. And as a Ravens fan, someone I bet
the Ravens twenty twenty three to one to win the
Super Bowl win. They bottomed out before Lamar came back.
Lamar needs to get help. I need to see it
from the first. But the good news with the Ravens
if they're that four seed, right like, you win that
first game, you're going to Denver, which I don't think
anyone's really that scared of as far as like who
(09:29):
one seeds could be or you're going to New England. Right,
It's not that they're not the scariest. The potential one
seeds in the NFC aren't the scariest. But where does
Buffalo end up? Does Buffalo end up as the five
the six of seven? Does Kansas City get in? So
a lot to shake out in the AFC. But if
this ends up with and look, the Bills aren't a
guaranteed to get in and either of this or the Ravens,
(09:49):
can you imagine an AFC playoffs? It's possible without Allen, Lamar,
Mahomes and Burrow. I mean there is a possibility.
Speaker 2 (09:59):
That ap it's possible, but there's no way that all
four of them miss. Now.
Speaker 4 (10:03):
I don't think it happens, but it's pretty cool like
it right now.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
We would talk about this for the rest of eternity
as people who love football, truly, we would talk about
this year in particular forever.
Speaker 1 (10:15):
Yeah, it'd be one of those years where it reshapes
the way that we talk about seasons prior to them
starting go well, just because you have one of the
best quarterbacks in the NFL, No longer guarantee that you're
gonna make it to the playoffs or make a deep run.
I think it would change the way that we view
the futures market.
Speaker 3 (10:33):
Plus four hundred. Yeah, I mean, anything's possible at this point.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
I did stab on Patriots Rams exact matchup.
Speaker 4 (10:41):
Please night.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
Well, that's the thing I sort of had this day
dream of, like we're gonna end up sitting there on
Super Bowl Sunday going, really again, we've got the Patriots
in the Rams. Can we get away from this matchup?
This would be the third time in my life we've
seen that.
Speaker 2 (10:59):
But I was in college here when that happened. I
have pictures of like the downtown of my campus after
the Patriots won the Super Bowl and how insane it was.
It was absolutely like nuts up here anytime anybody would
win a championship.
Speaker 1 (11:15):
Plus four hundred. You willing to take a stab before
we move on, Kendra, Yeah, the Patriots to make me
absolutely not okay. The Eagles offensive coordinator his house got
egged after the loss to the Bear's highest salaried offense
in the NFL ranks twenty fourth in yards, twenty third
in passing, twenty second in rushing, nineteenth in scoring, but still, guys, eggs.
(11:39):
In this economy, we have to find a cheaper item
to ruin people's houses with.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
I know it, I've done it. You fork somebody's house.
You buy a thousand plastic forks at the dollar store
for four dollars, and you go and stick forks all
over someone's yard. And then the joke is that they
just have to go out there and pick them up,
and that's annoying.
Speaker 4 (12:03):
Did you guys do Mischief Night the night before Halloween
when you were growing up? No?
Speaker 2 (12:07):
What the hell didn't.
Speaker 4 (12:09):
You didn't do that?
Speaker 2 (12:09):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (12:10):
My god? One of the most fun nights.
Speaker 3 (12:13):
Dn't.
Speaker 4 (12:13):
This is like a this might be like a Tri
State aira thing, or maybe just a Delko thing outside
of Philly, but Mischief Night. So yeah, the night before Halloween.
It's October thirtieth. Every night you would go out and
you would just terrorize neighborhoods. And so we would go
out with we would have book bags full of eggs
(12:37):
and then duffel bags full of toilet paper, and then
we would just go we were off for like four
or five hours. We would just go neighborhood to neighborhood
and we just egg houses and then cover the trees
people's trees and bushes and toilet paper. The next morning hilarious,
like just walking around and seeing all the houses covered
in toilet paper. Uh So I'm not surprised that this
(12:58):
happened in because that's that that is a thing.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
But that.
Speaker 4 (13:04):
Eggs are when you were really little, you used to
when you were too little to like really cause trouble,
you would just we would just ding down ditch when
you were like in like fourth fifth grade, and that
was always fun. You would like think that you're someone's
gonna come out and murder you when you were like
running and hiding. But yeah, they the Eagles need that.
I don't even know what the question was, but the
(13:24):
Eagles offense is wasn't a question.
Speaker 1 (13:26):
It was more of a statement on the price of
eggs more than anything else.
Speaker 4 (13:30):
Yeah. Yeah, but the Eagles offenses is broken. It's I mean,
think about it this. The Bears had no linebackers in
that game. All their linebackers were hurt, and it's not
a very good defense. Their their secondary is getting healthier.
They still couldn't run the ball. They still went a
whole half without doing anything. This happens every week. I
mean there is I this is We're in week fourteen.
(13:52):
Now there you are who you are at this point,
Like especially when there's just no signs, you get like
a little you had, like a couple of little sparks.
It's like, oh, the second half against the Rams, Like
where else has this offense done? Much? Every week it's
the same thing. I don't think that the Eagles are
a serious contender this year with their offense until I
(14:15):
see it consistently fixed and until I do. That's my
opinion on the Eagles.
Speaker 2 (14:21):
I think that them, the Rams and the Ravens probably
just have played way too many playoff games, like they're exhausted,
you know. I think that we're probably just seeing like
a dip of the exhaustion.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
It's probably not a coincidence that all of those teams
feel like they look the same on paper and then
they're not the same when you watch them.
Speaker 4 (14:41):
Yeah, I mean the Eagles, the coordinator is it was
a big deal. It was one of the things I
was worried, but a lot of people were worried about
coming into the year. I mean, we saw this a
couple of years ago with the Eagles offense under Brian Johnson.
The offensive line also is in as good. You know,
Lane Johnson's been hurt. They've had a number of guys
who have been hurt. I think they missed backed in
the two year so that the run game just isn't
(15:02):
as good. The defense now is trending up, although they
just got that. That Bears running rushing offense right now
is on another level. Ben Johnson has that humming. But
I still think the defense will be fine for the Eagles,
but the offense, like, you're not gonna win, You're not
going So the what the Eagles have to do because
(15:24):
because of their flawed offense is their best path because
I just can't see them winning like four playoff games
with that offense going into hibernation for a whole half.
So what they have to do is, I didn't get
what gets in the best chance. They're gonna have to
find some solutions. But they got to get the one
(15:46):
seed and losing to the Bears didn't help. They do
have the tiebreaker of the Rams, but now they're one
back of the Rams and the Bears. If you get
that one seed, you get the skip a playoff game.
You just win two home games get to the super Bowl. Obviously,
anything can happen in the Super Bowl, but that that
loss to the Bears was detrimental for for many reasons,
because I do think that the Eagles really need that one.
Speaker 3 (16:07):
Seed, and they've got land mines everywhere in the NFC.
Speaker 5 (16:11):
This is not because you know, you don't get the
two seed like you could get the you could get
the Packers or the Seahawks or the Niners, the Rams,
the line like stuff.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
He just got so passionate he had to sit up
out of his charing cross his legs.
Speaker 3 (16:24):
But the NFC is not the The NFC will do
that to people. Can Yeah, the.
Speaker 4 (16:29):
NFC now is like what the a C used to be. Like,
there's no now. Granted we just talked about the SIC
could have some of those top teams sneaking to get
the six or seven, but you're you're not getting a
free pass in the first round of the NFC playoffs.
That Wildcar weekend is going to be crazy, so especially.
Speaker 1 (16:46):
Because the Sade Coots baby, oh yeah, I think the
Panthers look like they might make the playoffs. Who knows
what the Bucks could be. One of those two teams
will end up being out doubt they'll both get in.
Speaker 4 (16:57):
Yeah, play each other again twice?
Speaker 2 (16:59):
I think two times, right, Yeah, I think that they
end the season with each other, and then like two
weeks before that, while we're.
Speaker 1 (17:04):
On the Eagles for a moment. Uh and well you've
got Thursday night football preview coming up. Our plant the
Flag game, Evans Primer. Is still a lot to get
to here on the episode, justin Herbert is day to
day after getting surgery on his hand. Kind of feels
like the odds makers are playing the middle with this line.
The Eagles are two and a half point road favorites here, Stucky,
Is that how you see it as far as the
(17:26):
way the line is set right now, hard to put
any action on this game until we know what's going
on with Herbert.
Speaker 4 (17:33):
Yeah, I mean I think he's going to play, but
there obviously is some uncertainty. What's the ball security going
to be? Like, you know, he obviously just is a
higher injury risk, like if something happens to it and
he has to come out. And then you get Trey Lance.
I'm assuming you'll.
Speaker 2 (17:49):
See Tree Lance to go to the preseason.
Speaker 4 (17:51):
I'm assuming you'll get Tree lancing goal line packages when
some goal line packages, some goal line looks. But yeah,
I mean I would I would assume that if Herbert,
you know, I'll tell you what I make it. If
Herbert was in and like there was no questions. I
(18:11):
mean this, I think that this game would be like, remember,
the Chargers don't have much of a home field, like you,
there might be more Eagles fans, I don't know, even
though it's across the country. Yeah, I mean I think
that this line would be like one with a healthy.
Speaker 3 (18:27):
Herbert plus one Chargers.
Speaker 4 (18:31):
Yeah, probably Eagles minus one. Ish The biggest like, can
the Eagles defensive line? This is the biggest concern if you, like,
if you're betting the charters, and then why the hand
becomes a bigger issue because you're behind a much aligned
offensive line that's completely broken and then you have a
hand injury. Now granted it's not your throwing him, but
(18:51):
now you're going up against the Eagles defensive line. That
that could be really problematic. But it's hard for me
to not see the Eagles offense not going into complete
hibernation for at least a half against a very game
Chargers defense. And it doesn't even matter who the defense is,
Like the Cowboys defense. I know they're trending up, but
(19:11):
the Eagles just didn't score for all half. The Bears defense,
they just didn't score for a whole half. It doesn't
matter who they play, so and the Chargers defense is
better than those teams. So yeah, I think that this
is a little bit of a ahead from odds makers
because they're they're definitely is some uncertainty, but I do
expect him to ply.
Speaker 1 (19:30):
But we'll see some more great analysis from the Favorites
coming your way momentarily. But first let's kick it over
to Kendrim Middleton for a word about DraftKings.
Speaker 2 (19:40):
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(20:02):
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The crown is yours?
Speaker 3 (20:16):
All right, Kendra? Before we get back at it, what's
on your mind today?
Speaker 4 (20:20):
What sell could you be?
Speaker 2 (20:31):
Okay? I don't know if you guys saw this last night.
I took a screenshot of it because a lot of
people got got by this. There were a couple of
these like aggregate accounts and then like some of the
troll accounts last night during the game, and one of
the bigger ones tweeted hashtag Giants defensive end. Abdul Carter
will miss the first drive tonight for disciplinary reasons after
(20:52):
getting caught watching porn and a team meeting when his
headphones disconnected. So many of these media accounts got got
by this last night. It was unreal. I don't know
if you guys saw this, but I can't stop digging
into the tweets of the people who got got by this.
Like Abdul Carter was watching porn in a team meeting
(21:13):
piece but.
Speaker 4 (21:13):
Jenny was benched, and then he said after the game,
no comment, shit happens, which was so funny that these
two things happened that no one will say why he
was suspended. Were not suspended, but he didn't start, And yeah,
that was very funny, Like a troll account tweeted.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
That and the about Yeah, what would be the would
that be the proper response disciplinary action?
Speaker 4 (21:40):
If you're watching porn in a team meeting, yeah, you're
not gonna get suspended for a game, but you probably
don't start. It's hard to imagine he was doing that, but.
Speaker 2 (21:50):
Yeah, I would imagine you, guys, I went to college
when people would open their laptops and stuff would still
be playing because they forgot to close it out. If
I had a nickel for every time it happened to me,
I would have two nickels, which isn't a lot, but
it's weird that it happened twice.
Speaker 1 (22:04):
Yeah, that is that has always close out your browser. People,
it's not hard. There's a big ex at the top
right of the screen. Just take care of your business.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
So that's what's on my mind.
Speaker 3 (22:17):
I appreciate that I did not see that. It is amazing.
Speaker 1 (22:20):
I feel like you and I live in different sectors
of the Internet. Every single week. When I talked to Gendre,
whether it is on the podcast or off of the podcast.
Speaker 4 (22:35):
I've never had a laptop happened. The closest I came
to something like that happening was when I was in
like seventh grade. Oh dude, no, I was just looking up.
Speaker 6 (22:50):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (22:50):
It was probably porn, like just general porn, or it
was probably just like back.
Speaker 2 (22:54):
Then, I mean Google search for big titties.
Speaker 4 (22:58):
Yeah, it was. I just know that it was not
good or why I wasn't supposed to look. But then
I because my mom wasn't home yet, and then I
fell asleep on the couch and then I woke up
and my mom was on the computer and I was like, oh,
I didn't X out, I don't think, so my mom
had to x out and then luckily she didn't say anything,
but it was very awkward. I pretended to sleep for
(23:19):
like four hours longer because I didn't want to like
face her. And yeah, I will never forget that I
learned my lesson young.
Speaker 3 (23:29):
I have a very similar story.
Speaker 1 (23:31):
I'm not going to bother telling it because it's basically
a copy and paste, but yeah, I think, uh, I
think every seventh.
Speaker 2 (23:37):
Three D we read right now Kravits this.
Speaker 1 (23:39):
Was it was Dan Anderson, and it was a print
out on the family printer, Okay, and I found I
found it later in a different room than where I
had it, and it was displayed like we got you.
Speaker 3 (23:57):
It has never been. This is why my face is
this read this is discredible.
Speaker 2 (24:04):
I'm gonna you, guys.
Speaker 3 (24:05):
I'm.
Speaker 4 (24:08):
Is hilarious.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
My face hurt.
Speaker 3 (24:12):
For the younger audience, you guys do there's probably not
even color was it wasn't it was flack.
Speaker 4 (24:20):
The struggle that kids don't know about these days.
Speaker 2 (24:23):
Modern day Pamela Anderson happening in an NFL meeting, You guys,
that's exactly what you maybe my tinfoil hat is on.
Speaker 1 (24:31):
I think the important note here is that kids today
do not understand the prime pam Anderson in black and white.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
We had to work for it back in the day.
Speaker 2 (24:42):
Okay, kids, I do have When my grandpa died, I
was cleaning out his house and my inheritance was a
Winston Racing snapback and his vintage porn mags and full Bush.
Those are my coffee table books in my house.
Speaker 4 (25:01):
And Battleship.
Speaker 2 (25:01):
I see, yeah, yeah, yeah, we yeah. Anyways, So.
Speaker 3 (25:08):
Lions minus three on Thursday night.
Speaker 1 (25:10):
Football's ticking on the Dallas Cowboys, total sitting at fifty four.
The two Thanksgiving featured squads squaring off, and it feels
like these two are headed in opposite directions. I'm sorry
there was no smooth transition. I'm just ripping the band
aid off. No surprise here. The bets and the money
are pouring in on the Dallas Cowboys. They feel like
(25:31):
the more fun bets. However, I mean, the trends are
still out there for this Lions team Campbell Golf, still
streaking after a loss. They've won fourteen in a row
back to twenty twenty two, thirteen and one ats in
the last fourteen after a loss. So this is very
much current form Dallas versus trends and basic betting logic
(25:57):
on the Lions.
Speaker 3 (25:58):
And I'm honestly not or which way to tilt. Kendrick.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
Do you have an early lean on this game Thursday
Night Football?
Speaker 2 (26:07):
Yeah, listen, Like, the Cowboys are fun. I'm a Jerry
Jones hater, but they're fun right now. They're they're even
though they killed my bet the other day, like they're
entertaining the thing. For me, if the Lions were healthy,
I would like the Lions in this spot, but seventy
percent of their offense is on the injury report. So
I just it's hard for me to sit here and
(26:27):
pick a side with a team with momentum who got
better at the trade deadline, And if it weren't for
you know, some of these silly little things that the
Cowboys tend to do, Dak would be having a career year.
So it's hard for me to sit here right now
on a day where I don't have an injury report
in front of me and kind of give like an
eloquent take on this. But the Lions are just injured
and the Cowboys are finding momentum at a good time.
(26:51):
I will probably circle back to this game once this
injury report is finalized, but right now, I just I can't.
I can't get to the window on either.
Speaker 1 (26:59):
Side, trends or momentum. Which side do you lean, Stuckey, Yeah,
I mean I.
Speaker 4 (27:05):
Don't these Lions trends I've been saying for the month,
like put in the bed. This isn't the same Lions team,
Like yeah, yeah, I mean they won after a loss
against the Eagles, but they should have lost to the
Giants at home and didn't come close to covering. And
they didn't cover at home against the Packers. And that's
two straight games at home. They haven't covered usually this team,
(27:25):
and they haven't covered three in a row. This team
is a covering wagon. What's wrong with the offensive line
is not the same. They have tons of injuries on offense,
They have injuries in the back end of the defense.
The play calling isn't the same. Look at what Ben
Johnson's doing with Chicago. That's not happening in Detroit. This
is not the same Lions team. And you know, like
(27:46):
and Kendrick's right, like, well, here's the thing. There's you
could these two teams are head in an opposite directions.
Like the Cowboys offense is electric. I mean, Pickens has
been incredible. Jack's playing at an MVP level that Clayton
Adams higher was amazing. Like the their run game has
been a good complimentary piece when no one, including myself,
thought that was going to be the case. But you
(28:06):
got Lamb ferguson Dak Pickens. That offense is gonna score
on anybody. And then it's a defense that's trending up
because you know, you added Quinn Williams, you got a
bunch of other pieces in the secondary and the linebacker
back healthy. So the run defense is now formidable and
they can get pressure.
Speaker 2 (28:22):
Now.
Speaker 4 (28:23):
The pass defense still has some holes and some questions.
But are the Lions gonna be able to take advantage
like throwing to like what Tom Kennedy, I mean, Sam
Laporta is a big loss. Their offensive line has tons of.
Speaker 2 (28:35):
Injuries, respect Isaac tess Law.
Speaker 4 (28:38):
Yeah, but they have I mean net Rock right, their
backup tight end is now probably out. Is Aman Raj
gonna play?
Speaker 6 (28:46):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (28:46):
That's huge. So here's the thing. These two teams are
headed in opposite directions. Like I don't think the Lions
are gonna make the playoffs. This game is I think
this game is an elimination game. Every game the Cowboys
need because they set themselves so far behind the almost
every game for the Cowboys as a must win. If
the Lions lose this game, they drop to seven and six,
a place you don't want to be in the NFC.
(29:08):
And they go to the Rams next, and you know,
they go to Chicago to close the year. They go
to Minnesota, but they already lost to the Vikings. Not
an easy place to play. I think they're done if
they lose this game, but a lot of injuries. But
here's the thing. The line, the look at line, which
it's not the most efficient market, but it gives you
a general read of where the market is on some
(29:28):
of these teams. Was six six and a half. So
this is a big adjustment down Now we're talking three.
I think it's the correct adjustment, but I wouldn't be
running to bet the Cowboys at three. But I'm also
not betting the lines. I got this think three is
the right line here.
Speaker 2 (29:45):
Well, it would be so NFC East for the Cowboys
to have this, you know, progress made at this point
in the season, and the Eagles really hit that point
of regression and the Cowboys win this division because of
how hard it is to continue to win in the
NFC East. So maybe that's the play, is whatever the
Cowboys are at.
Speaker 4 (30:05):
To win the division.
Speaker 2 (30:08):
Yeah, like, maybe that's the play here.
Speaker 1 (30:10):
Truly, they do feel like the best team in the
division at the moment. If this were to tick down,
those save money continues to pour in on Dallas, we
get Lions minus two and a half with that, with
that three being as key as it is, would that
be enough to make you want to buy in on Detroit.
Speaker 4 (30:26):
Possibly, it depends on the injury report.
Speaker 1 (30:29):
It's most likely the fact that Frank Ragnow tried to
come out of retirement on this offensive line and they
were like, nah, you can't.
Speaker 3 (30:37):
That's a problem.
Speaker 2 (30:38):
That's so sad though, Like imagine.
Speaker 1 (30:41):
He's like, I want to come and save you and
uh and then didn't pass the physical time.
Speaker 4 (30:46):
I just told the Lions games right and that like
line's at three in a shootout game. I mean, you
know what this is going to come down to. In
the last two weeks, it hasn't worked out for degenerate Dan.
He's what they're like, Oh, I don't know. They went
four down against hard They went oh of five on
(31:10):
fourth downs against the Eagles, So yeah, you know that
degenerate Dan. Yeah, so they're all of seven on fourth
downs over their past three games. You know, Degenerate Dan
is gonna be going on fourth downs and in a
game the Lions are gonna be able to put up
points on the Cowboys off and that the Cow's gonna
(31:32):
be able to score. They can score on anybody. So
what's this How's this game probably gonna be decided a
couple of lines, fourth downs, A shut up. I'm trying
to plant my flag here.
Speaker 7 (31:44):
Okay, you're really.
Speaker 3 (31:45):
Planting your flag in that deck?
Speaker 1 (31:47):
Time to plant are flag presented by DraftKings.
Speaker 3 (31:50):
The crown is yours. I'll get us started.
Speaker 1 (31:52):
I'm gonna go with the Baltimore Ravens minus five and
a half against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I think the lore
around this rivalry is helping to drive the price down.
The fact that the Ravens got dusted last week against
Cincinnati that helped keeps the helps to keep the price down.
But it's not like Pittsburgh's been all that good either.
They got blown out by Buffalo, They've lost three of
their last four, five of the last seven, and the
(32:15):
tides they may be shifting in this matchup as well.
Last two meetings between the Ravens and the Steelers have
not been close games. Ravens by fourteen, Ravens by seventeen.
I'll take the Ravens now before this ticks back up
to six. Still six at DraftKings five and a half
if you can get it.
Speaker 3 (32:34):
But I like the Ravens in this matchup.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
Does it not feel like one of these weird games
that the Steelers win though to you, like coming off
a loss the whole, like Mike Tomlin argument in Division,
I get, you know, you just gave like the stats
of the scores of the last couple matchups, but like
this just feels weirdly like a Steelers spot of a
game that they win when they shouldn't.
Speaker 1 (32:54):
I kind of feel the same all about the Steelers
that Stucky does about the current iteration of the Lions.
I feel like all of these trends and the raw
raw Tomlin stuff, that all of that feels pass.
Speaker 3 (33:05):
A at this point.
Speaker 1 (33:06):
This doesn't feel like the same organization because they don't
bring us the same way defensively that used to be. Hey,
at any point, if they're at a low, they just
lean on defense and they're.
Speaker 2 (33:15):
Running, running the ball. That was the identity.
Speaker 3 (33:17):
Yeah, and they can't do that right now.
Speaker 4 (33:19):
Yeah, it's my concern. I don't know if Evan has
this as primer, but I do think that when these
teams have been Tomlin and Harball have met over the
past seventeen years, I do think that under when either
as an underdog of three or more points, it's like
eighteen one in three against the spread, it's insane. I think,
like literally, I think it's like ninety percent, and the
(33:39):
amount of games that have been decided by three points
is insane. But you're right, the Steelers defense is not
the same. I mean, the Bills ran the same running
by twenty seven plays twenty seven times last week and
they Steelers couldn't stop it. They have injuries on defense,
Aaron Rodgers having to go out of the pistol with
his hurt hand. The offense is just dysfunctional. Aaron Rodgers
has been over the past four weeks, has been the
(34:01):
worst quarterback in the NFL. Statistically, if you look at
EPA plus completion percentage of expectation, he's worse than Shador
Gabriel dead last. The offense is not working right now,
but neither is the Ravens offense. Like Lamar doesn't have
the same burst. There's hope for the Ravens, like I
don't see hope for the Steelers. It's just how is
this going to get fixed? Then the receivers can't get separation.
(34:23):
Rogers is hurt now once You's like if Lamar, like
if that burst comes back now. The Steers have done
a really good job against Lamar, Jackson Astor. But they
usually have a really good game plan. But this is
a game where the Ravens can just line up and
run it. Are the Steelers, Like look in the steer,
that's all the Bills did. The Bills run the same
two plays the entire game instead of record stadium record.
(34:44):
But I do get the hebgb's when it comes to wanting,
because I want to lay it with the Ravens here too.
But I've just seen so many Ravens Steelers games at
all end up three, no matter what, like it's just
it'll be the team ten somehow. Overall, since twenty five,
the underdog in this series is twenty nine twelve and
(35:06):
three against the spread seventy one percent. When the line
is three or more points, the underdog is twenty three
five and three against spread, which is silly.
Speaker 3 (35:16):
But it is very very much so might not apply.
Speaker 4 (35:20):
It also might not apply to the Ravens. Like the
Ravens offense right now is also broken.
Speaker 3 (35:25):
They they have not looked good.
Speaker 1 (35:27):
I think the word hope that you laid out as
part of the reason why I am on Baltimore here,
I have faith that they can bounce back. I don't
feel the same way about Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (35:37):
And two thousand.
Speaker 1 (35:38):
Going back to two thousand and five, we're talking about
Ben Roethlisberger, one of the greatest quarterbacks I've ever seen
play the game, some elite defenses. I think that we're
getting caught up in the logos here. This line should
be closer to seven. In my opinion, Kendro, what about
you plant the flag.
Speaker 2 (35:52):
I'm gonna plant my flag on the Bengals. When I
saw this number at plus six, I was absolutely shook,
didn't believe it, and I thought our website was off.
It is not. We've seen what Joe Burrow can do
when he's coming from behind. He plays with a vengeance.
I think that he probably should have been even more
considered for MVP last year, considering how much time he
you know, missed and came back and just played like
(36:14):
an insane person kind of doing the same thing right now.
The injury reports as well so far from me, have
been a little concerning for Buffalo. So I really like
this number. And the thing is the Bengals, they get
their schedule gets easier. They have the Bills this week,
and they have the Ravens this week, and then they
finish out with the Dolphins, Cardinals, and Browns. I think
(36:34):
that if they can find a way to get stay
healthy through these you know, gauntlet of these couple games,
especially the next Ravens game, they might be on a
little bit of a tear. So I'm gonna go with
the Bengals.
Speaker 1 (36:45):
To Higgins coming back as well as an underdog Joe
Burrow twenty and eleven against the spread. If it's a
dog of three or more, he is eighteen and three.
Ats gonna be cold at kickoff, So I think a
lot of people are gonna look to back a home
team Buffalo squad. It looks really strong right now, wintery,
(37:06):
cold weather. But I think Burrow plays well. We've seen
him go into Buffalo in the playoffs and get a
win against this Bills team, So I like that. I
was looking the way of the Bengals myself. Stucky you
read on that and you're playing the flag.
Speaker 4 (37:23):
I watching some injuries there. I mean, I don't think
the Bills will be able to The Bengals defense is
really bad too. I don't think that they'll be able
to run the seam two plays like they did last week.
But who knows. The Bengals offense is obviously much more
efficient explosive. The Bengals run game also, and some of
their run concepts can give Buffalo issues. This is a
huge game for Cincy. If the Bengals can win this game,
(37:47):
I mean, they're live for the division because they get
to host the Ravens. The Ravens and Steelers play each
other twice, so if they split right, and then you
look at the rest of the Bengals schedule, as Kendra mentioned,
it's they host the Ravens and it's Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns.
But if they lose this game, probably done because because
(38:08):
again the Ravens and Steers play each other. So this
is an enormous game for the Bengals.
Speaker 2 (38:16):
There's a lot of big games this week, to be honest.
Speaker 4 (38:19):
Yeah, a lot, a lot of a lot of big games.
Like I mentioned, the Charger Eagles game is huge. Like Eagles,
they want that one seed. They're gonna have to win
this if not, like in Dallas, wins is the division
in question. The Chargers have a brutal schedule after this.
Speaker 2 (38:34):
Game.
Speaker 4 (38:35):
That game I think is elimination.
Speaker 2 (38:37):
That's an elimination game. I agree with you absolutely.
Speaker 3 (38:39):
We mentioned the Jags Colts.
Speaker 4 (38:41):
Is the Jags the first place.
Speaker 2 (38:42):
It's a massive weekend.
Speaker 4 (38:44):
Dude, Monday night they on the Monday Night graphic, they
put race for the one seed. They put in the act.
They put Broncos, Patriots, and Colts. I was like, this
week too, Like Bags are in first place with an
easier schedule. They put the Colts up there.
Speaker 2 (39:00):
Nobody's talking about the Jags. I'll bitch about that for eternity.
Everyone's like Denver, Houston, Indianapolis, all this stuff. I'm like,
the Jags lead the division. You guys won't even give
them their flowers. Like, don't get me wrong, I don't
believe in this team going anywhere either.
Speaker 4 (39:14):
You're not talking about the Jags either.
Speaker 2 (39:16):
Hell Ma, no, that team is like this is your yeah,
let me let me fall on this sword, however I choose. Okay,
I've been going through the scrap for far too long.
Speaker 4 (39:28):
Jags super Bowl. Uh, that's I'm playing.
Speaker 2 (39:32):
Jackson super Bowl this year. I will get the Lombardi
Trophy tattooed on my left ass cheek.
Speaker 4 (39:37):
All right, that's.
Speaker 1 (39:40):
Your first uh Jags future as he said, we're right
that one in.
Speaker 4 (39:44):
That's that's what I'm.
Speaker 2 (39:45):
Playing I'm dead ass. I will get the Lombardi Trophy
on my left ass cheek. I have a huge like yeah, yeah.
Speaker 4 (39:53):
Uh now, plany my flag. I'll plan my flag on.
I'm gonna with the Falcons plus seven and a half
against the Falcons, excuse me, against the Seahawks at home.
I think number one, this is a it's a cell
(40:15):
hive of the Seahawks. I think, I mean, they're nine
to three against the spread. We're at the peak of
the market on them. Look and look you look back
last week that that game was three to nothing at
the end of the first half and Brosmuth would played
one of the worst quarterback games of all time. Was
shut down, shut to completely shut down. They were using
(40:36):
like they and the the Vikings and the Falcons, very
zone heavy teams that can get pressure that blitz. Seahawks
have some offensive line injuries. Darnold very quietly has been
very poor over the past month.
Speaker 2 (40:49):
Yeah, I think that they make I mean quietly didn't
throw like five interceptions.
Speaker 4 (40:55):
The Rams, but he hasn't been great in other games
where they just and look the last two weeks they
played cam and the Titans and then the Brosmer and
the Vikings and the Falcons. Look, the Falcons aren't aren't great,
but this is a team that last week they dominated
the Jets like they should have won that game, like
statistically they got beat on special teams, like they had
(41:18):
a mouth to punt at the five like statistically they
were way better. The Falcons are one in four over
their past five games with one second to go in regulation.
They trailed once and it was by one point at
the Patriots. That's it. They lost in overtime to the Colts.
Easily could have won that game on the neutral field,
(41:40):
Blew a big lead against the Panthers, lost in overtime,
lost a game that they should have won at New York,
lost on a fifty two yard field walk off field goal,
and then beat the Saints. I mean they were one
in four of the past five games there with a
positive scoring differential. They've only trailed once by one point
at New England with one second to go in regulation,
and there's a good there's a decent chance Drake London
(42:03):
comes back. Kirk Cousins has looked better in the past
two weeks. The Falcons numbers aren't great versus heavy personnel,
which they'll see a lot of against Seattle, but if
you filter out with him without Devon Diablo, it's like
a three yard difference. He makes a huge difference against
the run. Seahawks aren't a great rushing team efficiency wise.
That's how you really want to attack the Falcons. And
(42:24):
here's who I think they really miss is my guy
Tory Orton, because a lot of times they just have
two receivers out there and they're not. Shh Heed's only
playing like thirty forty fifty percent. He's done nothing. What
is she? Het has like seven catches in four games.
He's supposed to be like this piece. And now it's
like Cooper Cup, the corpse of Cooper Cup. And then
(42:45):
JSN and now I think teams saw what the Vikings
did last week, a lot of help over the top,
more cloud coverages to kind of take away JSN, and
the Falcons do it generally do a good job of
taking away explosive pass plays. I just think this line
is too high. I think the Falcons will be in
this game at home, So give me over a touchdown
with Atlanta.
Speaker 1 (43:06):
A gross Falcons dog bet after losing to the Jets.
Speaker 3 (43:10):
This is versical.
Speaker 4 (43:10):
Do you want to bet the Jags. I mean, the
Falcons is dogs. You don't never want to bet them
as favorites, Like this is going on for years and
for what it's worth the just like I love fading
teams off of like shutout wins. This isn't gospel, but
road teams off of a home shutout, right, So like this, Oh,
(43:30):
look look at this team. They just want twenty six
to nothing. Road teams off a home shutout over the
past twenty five years, seventeen thirty five and one against
the spread thirty two point seven percent. So yeah, and
the Falcons lost the game they should have won. Last week.
Seahawks benefited from facing Frosmer Darnold kind of trending down
a bit that the defenses have tape on this offense
(43:53):
or they're adjusting a bit better. So yeah, I'll take
I'll take the seven. I think it's nice too high.
Speaker 1 (44:00):
Our play at the Flag Games presented by DraftKings. The
Crown is yours. Kendra is on the Bengals plus six,
Stucky on the Falcons plus seven and a half, and
I will lay it with the Baltimore Ravens minus five.
Speaker 3 (44:13):
And a half.
Speaker 1 (44:14):
Evan Abrams bring us home the Primer is poppin this
week over at actionnetwork dot com. Evan, what are the
trends that we need to be aware of before we
go firing away on the apps.
Speaker 6 (44:25):
Yeah, so Tuesday morning we're recording here.
Speaker 7 (44:27):
Primer is now live on the site, so check it
out with all the great games this weekend. I think
the biggest really topic of conversation across the league, and
you hear it across almost every show, is just a
parody in the league. So I took a look at it,
and during Week fourteen, we currently have seventeen teams listed
below fifty to one odds to win the Super Bowl.
That would be the most for any season dating back
(44:49):
to at least twenty ten. The previous high was fifteen
teams in twenty seventeen, So seventeen teams currently under fifty
to one seems like a lot. It is also twelve
teams these four games above five hundred right now tied
for the most in NFL history. So right now, absolutely
anybody can win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 6 (45:07):
You've heard it.
Speaker 7 (45:07):
Everywhere, and the odds kind of tell you that. I
feel like the other story. You look at the board
and you say Tennessee, Cleveland, thirty three and a half
seems like a fun topic to talk about, but listen,
since it started twenty ten, be the third lowest total
in an outdoor game in freezing temperatures, so we do
not see this a lot. Thirty two and a half
(45:27):
Saints Brown's in twenty twenty two, and of course the
infamous lowest total NFL history twenty eight and a half
Jets Patriots in twenty twenty three.
Speaker 6 (45:35):
So two rookies and a low total can't wait.
Speaker 1 (45:39):
And two rookies where there was a lot of debate
about these two leading up to draft season. Of course,
cam Ward really started to separate himself as we got
closer to April one, up being the number one overall
pick and Shador Sanders a shock to us. All drops
to the fifth round. But that game gonna be nice
and disgusting. And it looks like the Browns are taking
money too. They were minus three and a half when
(46:01):
we started recording. They're minus four and a half now
against the Tennessee Titans. Could you imagine sitting there on
Sunday laying it with the Cleveland Browns and it might
not be a bad idea.
Speaker 3 (46:11):
I don't think of it.
Speaker 4 (46:12):
When's the last time I had a total under thirty three?
Speaker 7 (46:15):
Last year under thirty three would be that thirty two
and a half game, I believe Cleveland and Miami or
No Saints Brown's twenty twenty two.
Speaker 4 (46:26):
Man, what are the what's the updated win forecasts for that?
Speaker 6 (46:29):
It's honestly not that bad. I only see like ten
eleven miles an hour. It's just supposed to be.
Speaker 4 (46:33):
So this might have been like this total could if
there was like thirty mine hour wins, this total could
have been like twenty nine and a half.
Speaker 7 (46:40):
I mean, it's not often stuck. You see the look
ahead at thirty five and a half, like usually weather,
to get a weather, we'll drive it down. It started
super low, so I think it really depends how the
week goes.
Speaker 4 (46:50):
There was some There was some games in like the
mid two thousands. I don't know if you had this
up if you want to, like pull up on action labs.
The like the lowest totals we've ever had, But they're
like the Bears, like the mid two thousand Bears teams
that were like dominant defensively with horrendous quarterback play, and
(47:13):
then when they would have a really windy game there.
I think there might have been a total that was
like twenty nine and a half.
Speaker 7 (47:20):
I mean, yeah, there's been. I mean twenty eight and
a half is the record. We saw that with the
snow Crazy game with New England and the Jets. There's
a ton of two thousand and five, two thousand and four.
Speaker 4 (47:31):
Bears, like three eights maybe.
Speaker 6 (47:34):
Yeah, thirty thirty one and a half, thirty and a half.
It's usually Bears at home and Browns at home is
where you get the lowest totals in NFL history.
Speaker 4 (47:43):
Yeah, with the wind. But yeah, those Bears teams. I
think I remember a twenty nine and a half one.
There was that Bears forty nine ers. I don't know
what the total was, but the Chris Berman on the
the on when he wo and the Bogos, they try
to kick a field goal and it goes and it
literally goes thirty yards right in the wind.
Speaker 6 (48:05):
Yeah, I believe it's Bears Niners.
Speaker 7 (48:07):
Two thousand and five total was thirty seventeen to nine
final and there.
Speaker 4 (48:12):
Was Nathan Vasher had one hundred and eight yard kick
missed field goal return at the end of the half.
And it's still went under here ready.
Speaker 7 (48:23):
Watch this field goal attempt by Robbie's solid fool to
the Bears.
Speaker 2 (48:28):
You think it's windy, understatement of the year and the
kick us up, it's on the.
Speaker 3 (48:32):
Way and it's no good man, Harry Goes. They had
no shit.
Speaker 4 (48:41):
It went out of the end zone.
Speaker 3 (48:43):
There will never be another.
Speaker 4 (48:45):
Yeah, NFL Prime Time back in the days best. It's
so long. But I used to watch that every night,
every night after the NFL games. But yeah, so that
was thirty, said Evan.
Speaker 3 (48:55):
Yeah, I mean I Evan will let you go back
to your layer. Thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (48:59):
Go and check it out actionnetwork dot Com or on
the Action Network app. That's gonna do it for today's
episode special thanks to our producers David Paine and Gifford Gould.
Speaker 3 (49:07):
The Favorites will return on Thursday.
Speaker 1 (49:10):
Right here on the Action Network YouTube page, we talk
Week fourteen best Bets, Lay it all on the line,
two Kings and a Queen Parlay.
Speaker 3 (49:17):
We'll see you next time right here on.
Speaker 1 (49:19):
The Favorites presented by DraftKings, We're out.
Speaker 2 (49:32):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available.
Twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz, back
at it on this fine Tuesday morning. Kendrick Middleton and
the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation Stuckey, who is very
much on the Men today, back for today's episode. We've
got our Plant the Flag game for Week fourteen, after
(00:31):
the blood bath that was Week thirteen for all of us.
Our official Thursday Night football preview Cowboys Lions should be
a good one, and of course the main event Evans
Tuesday Primer Monday Night Football kind of a snoozer. New
England pulled away early on in this game. Do we
actually feel like we know who this New England Patriots
(00:55):
team is? They do have some impressive wins on the season,
but we're talking about an eleven win team. It feels
like every week they're beating up on the giants of
the world. And here you have Drake May, who, by
the way, right now odds on favorite to win the
NFL MVP at minus one thirty five, has not thrown
(01:15):
for three hundred yards in a single game. Yet I'm
not taking away from his MVP candidacy and saying that
he has been hyper efficient. His long ball is top
notch in the NFL, and he runs the ball as well.
I just wonder how many NFL MVPs at the quarterback
position could go an entire season without throwing for three
hundred yards. It's a bizarre sort of year for New England. Kendra,
(01:38):
you're in the market. Do you feel like you have
a good read on exactly what this team is or
do you think there's still some fraud within them? So?
Speaker 2 (01:48):
I think I do know who this team is just
from existing in this space this season. I think that
they are not the most talented team. But I think
we've talked about how we think they like each other, right,
But I think that they're the type of team who
is coached by Mike Vrabel to do the little things
and to do the little things so well that they're
perfect that in combination with Drake May kind of elevating
(02:11):
himself so highly this year. I think that that's what
we're looking at, right. It's like they like each other,
they got the luck out of Drake May, and they're
doing the little things, and they're doing the little things
hard like the physicality. Difference between the Giants and the
Patriots last night is one of those, you know, things
that people consider little but really make a huge difference
down in and down out, you know. So I think
(02:33):
that that to this new England Patriots team is I
think that they're going to continue with the strength of schedule.
They have to be able to do those things and
do those things successfully. I do think at some point
they will slip up and lose a weird game that
they shouldn't. I think they it'll maybe be you know,
I do think that they lose to the Bills. They
have to kind of where the Bills need to be,
(02:54):
and I think later in the year, when you're beat up,
you know, your quarterback's been there season after season. Also
play in cold weather, so there's no advantage there. I
think that they lose that game, but maybe one other
game that's just like a random slip up for them.
But I do think that they make the postseason, probably
a first round exit, depending on who they get, just
(03:14):
because the talent discrepancy, like I said, is there. They
like each other, they play hard, they do the things
they are you know, do well. But not being said,
I think that that's probably where they slip up just
because you can't avoid the talent discrepancy in the postseason
in the NFL.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
Very much bloated by an easy schedule throughout the course
of the season. But Stucky, have you seen enough consistency
from them where you feel like, when it actually matters,
this team is clearly going to be in a prime
position heading into the playoffs?
Speaker 3 (03:42):
Are they going to be a team that you believe in.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
When we've got we've got lines coming out with the
Patriots against teams like the like the Bills, like potentially
Kansas City Chiefs or or an LA Chargers, where you're
in that do or die situation, Patriots probably gonna be favored.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
Are we getting to the point where we trust them
in those situations?
Speaker 1 (04:05):
Or are they gonna be like last year's Minnesota team
where the record doesn't necessarily tell the story of who
they really are.
Speaker 4 (04:14):
Yeah, I mean, they're obviously not as good as the
record that but I mean they benefited from one of
the easiest schedules in the NFL. I mean, look at
the defenses they faced. They've also won some close games.
You know, you can go look back to that Falcons
game that could have went either way, and then they've
had a couple of games at home that just flipped
on special teams like that Giants. The Giants were like
minus seventeen in the first half on special teams that
(04:35):
they gave up a pund return for a touchdown. Although
you have to give credit to Marcus Jones, He's an
electric pund returner. And like Kendrick said, the Patriots do
do all those little things right. And I think Rabel's
very good in game which gives them a little edge
as far as in game management. But I mean last
night it was a pond return for a touchdown. I
dropped a dropped fumble kick return and then young Way,
(04:56):
who I don't know what, I've never seen that before
in my life. He just kicked the ground and missed
the ball by two feet. I guess you don't get
you don't get dopted for a missed gilgal on that,
so maybe he just knew he was going to miss it,
so he just said, you know what, Gil, and you
take a sack. So they got like plus seventeen points.
Especially the same thing happened in a Panthers game earlier
the season, So yeah, they've benefited from an easy schedule.
(05:18):
I mean, I think ultimately, I mean, if you it's
pretty funny if you look from like, for example, from
a DVA perspective, which adjusts for opponent, the Patriots are
like fourteenth and the fourteen to fifteen somewhere around there,
like a league average team. The Bears, who are the
other one seed, are like eighteenth nineteenth, slightly below league
(05:38):
average team. Those are the two one seeds in the NFL.
So you can't judge everything by wins and losses. I
think the market it's kind of where similar to where
I have the Patriots. They're like a plus two the Patriots,
so they're like they're like a I don't know, like
a two point favorite over an average team on a
neutral field. So yeah, there are a couple of points
better than an average team. Do I trust them? I mean,
(06:00):
here's the thing they've been. They've had an East schedule,
they've been really healthy. Now they're starting to finally deal
with some injuries, so we'll see how that plays out.
The good news is they have a buy coming up,
so they survived up up until their bye week. I
think they probably lose the Bills, but you know, coin
flippish game probably lose at Baltimore. But all they have
to do is beat the Jets and Dolphins. No matter
(06:21):
what else happens, they win the division. And obviously they
have their sight set on the one seat as well.
But look, they they're well coached the one if they
get healthy. Their run defense is good, their defense still
has some holes. Their offensive line still isn't great. It's
not the most talented teams Kendra alluded to. But Drake May,
I mean he's I'm a believer in Drake May. I
(06:44):
think most people are. He's starting to establish himself as
one of the better quarterbacks about His deep ball is
a weapon. I mean, his placement of the deep ball
can flip a game no matter who he's playing. So
you know, and if you look at the AFC right now,
you say, like, do you trust the Patriots, I mean,
who are you?
Speaker 1 (07:03):
Like?
Speaker 4 (07:03):
Yeah, this is the team I trust. I mean the
Chiefs are not even favored to make the playoffs. We'll
see if the Ravens make it. The Bills have flaws,
I mean, but like the other AFC teams right now,
the Jags, the Colts, the Broncos, like, this isn't a
murderers ruh. This isn't the AFA of two years ago.
(07:26):
So can the Patriots make a run? Sure? I mean
get in in the AFC and you can make a run.
So yeah, I think they're bound as good as their record.
But they're a good football team.
Speaker 1 (07:36):
They're favored right now to make it out of the
AFC at plus four hundred on DraftKings. They're either going
to end up with the one or the two seed
the way that things are looking right now. If they
were the two seed, they probably end up taking on
a Buffalo team that they've already shown that they can beat.
That's gonna be a tough matchup for them in a
playoff scenario because of what I'm talking about, how much
will you actually trust Drake May and this team that
(07:58):
doesn't feel like they're as good as their record. But
here's the thing, that path that you talk about. Let's
say they end up as the one seed and you
get a three six matchup Colts Jags, Colts knockoff Jacksonville. Now,
all of a sudden, you're into Round two already with
your bye, taking on a Colts team that also is
(08:19):
it very trustworthy. So the path of the AFC Championship
game just depending.
Speaker 4 (08:24):
On the Nickson Denver waiting for you, which isn't that scary,
But yeah, you bring up a good point. The thing
that is one of the biggest wild the two biggest
wild cards about and it's in related to the wild card,
but do the Chiefs end up making it so Chiefs
Texans huge game because then if you like and then
(08:45):
do the Patriots get the one or the two? So
Patriots have they're by then a couple tough games because
if you get that too, and you get you end
up getting either Buffalo or Kansas City or Baltimore. That's
a brutal job. Well Baltimore on can really get in
if they win the division, so they'll they'll be a
four their favorite to win the divisions. They'll be a
(09:06):
four seed. And as a Ravens fan, someone I bet
the Ravens twenty twenty three to one to win the
Super Bowl win. They bottomed out before Lamar came back.
Lamar needs to get help. I need to see it
from the first. But the good news with the Ravens
if they're that four seed, right like, you win that
first game, you're going to Denver, which I don't think
anyone's really that scared of as far as like who
(09:29):
one seeds could be or you're going to New England. Right,
It's not that they're not the scariest. The potential one
seeds in the NFC aren't the scariest. But where does
Buffalo end up? Does Buffalo end up as the five
the six of seven? Does Kansas City get in? So
a lot to shake out in the AFC. But if
this ends up with and look, the Bills aren't a
guaranteed to get in and either of this or the Ravens,
(09:49):
can you imagine an AFC playoffs? It's possible without Allen, Lamar,
Mahomes and Burrow. I mean there is a possibility.
Speaker 2 (09:59):
That ap it's possible, but there's no way that all
four of them miss. Now.
Speaker 4 (10:03):
I don't think it happens, but it's pretty cool like
it right now.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
We would talk about this for the rest of eternity
as people who love football, truly, we would talk about
this year in particular forever.
Speaker 1 (10:15):
Yeah, it'd be one of those years where it reshapes
the way that we talk about seasons prior to them
starting go well, just because you have one of the
best quarterbacks in the NFL, No longer guarantee that you're
gonna make it to the playoffs or make a deep run.
I think it would change the way that we view
the futures market.
Speaker 3 (10:33):
Plus four hundred. Yeah, I mean, anything's possible at this point.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
I did stab on Patriots Rams exact matchup.
Speaker 4 (10:41):
Please night.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
Well, that's the thing I sort of had this day
dream of, like we're gonna end up sitting there on
Super Bowl Sunday going, really again, we've got the Patriots
in the Rams. Can we get away from this matchup?
This would be the third time in my life we've
seen that.
Speaker 2 (10:59):
But I was in college here when that happened. I
have pictures of like the downtown of my campus after
the Patriots won the Super Bowl and how insane it was.
It was absolutely like nuts up here anytime anybody would
win a championship.
Speaker 1 (11:15):
Plus four hundred. You willing to take a stab before
we move on, Kendra, Yeah, the Patriots to make me
absolutely not okay. The Eagles offensive coordinator his house got
egged after the loss to the Bear's highest salaried offense
in the NFL ranks twenty fourth in yards, twenty third
in passing, twenty second in rushing, nineteenth in scoring, but still, guys, eggs.
(11:39):
In this economy, we have to find a cheaper item
to ruin people's houses with.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
I know it, I've done it. You fork somebody's house.
You buy a thousand plastic forks at the dollar store
for four dollars, and you go and stick forks all
over someone's yard. And then the joke is that they
just have to go out there and pick them up,
and that's annoying.
Speaker 4 (12:03):
Did you guys do Mischief Night the night before Halloween
when you were growing up? No?
Speaker 2 (12:07):
What the hell didn't.
Speaker 4 (12:09):
You didn't do that?
Speaker 2 (12:09):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (12:10):
My god? One of the most fun nights.
Speaker 3 (12:13):
Dn't.
Speaker 4 (12:13):
This is like a this might be like a Tri
State aira thing, or maybe just a Delko thing outside
of Philly, but Mischief Night. So yeah, the night before Halloween.
It's October thirtieth. Every night you would go out and
you would just terrorize neighborhoods. And so we would go
out with we would have book bags full of eggs
(12:37):
and then duffel bags full of toilet paper, and then
we would just go we were off for like four
or five hours. We would just go neighborhood to neighborhood
and we just egg houses and then cover the trees
people's trees and bushes and toilet paper. The next morning hilarious,
like just walking around and seeing all the houses covered
in toilet paper. Uh So I'm not surprised that this
(12:58):
happened in because that's that that is a thing.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
But that.
Speaker 4 (13:04):
Eggs are when you were really little, you used to
when you were too little to like really cause trouble,
you would just we would just ding down ditch when
you were like in like fourth fifth grade, and that
was always fun. You would like think that you're someone's
gonna come out and murder you when you were like
running and hiding. But yeah, they the Eagles need that.
I don't even know what the question was, but the
(13:24):
Eagles offense is wasn't a question.
Speaker 1 (13:26):
It was more of a statement on the price of
eggs more than anything else.
Speaker 4 (13:30):
Yeah. Yeah, but the Eagles offenses is broken. It's I mean,
think about it this. The Bears had no linebackers in
that game. All their linebackers were hurt, and it's not
a very good defense. Their their secondary is getting healthier.
They still couldn't run the ball. They still went a
whole half without doing anything. This happens every week. I
mean there is I this is We're in week fourteen.
(13:52):
Now there you are who you are at this point,
Like especially when there's just no signs, you get like
a little you had, like a couple of little sparks.
It's like, oh, the second half against the Rams, Like
where else has this offense done? Much? Every week it's
the same thing. I don't think that the Eagles are
a serious contender this year with their offense until I
(14:15):
see it consistently fixed and until I do. That's my
opinion on the Eagles.
Speaker 2 (14:21):
I think that them, the Rams and the Ravens probably
just have played way too many playoff games, like they're exhausted,
you know. I think that we're probably just seeing like
a dip of the exhaustion.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
It's probably not a coincidence that all of those teams
feel like they look the same on paper and then
they're not the same when you watch them.
Speaker 4 (14:41):
Yeah, I mean the Eagles, the coordinator is it was
a big deal. It was one of the things I
was worried, but a lot of people were worried about
coming into the year. I mean, we saw this a
couple of years ago with the Eagles offense under Brian Johnson.
The offensive line also is in as good. You know,
Lane Johnson's been hurt. They've had a number of guys
who have been hurt. I think they missed backed in
the two year so that the run game just isn't
(15:02):
as good. The defense now is trending up, although they
just got that. That Bears running rushing offense right now
is on another level. Ben Johnson has that humming. But
I still think the defense will be fine for the Eagles,
but the offense, like, you're not gonna win, You're not
going So the what the Eagles have to do because
(15:24):
because of their flawed offense is their best path because
I just can't see them winning like four playoff games
with that offense going into hibernation for a whole half.
So what they have to do is, I didn't get
what gets in the best chance. They're gonna have to
find some solutions. But they got to get the one
(15:46):
seed and losing to the Bears didn't help. They do
have the tiebreaker of the Rams, but now they're one
back of the Rams and the Bears. If you get
that one seed, you get the skip a playoff game.
You just win two home games get to the super Bowl. Obviously,
anything can happen in the Super Bowl, but that that
loss to the Bears was detrimental for for many reasons,
because I do think that the Eagles really need that one.
Speaker 3 (16:07):
Seed, and they've got land mines everywhere in the NFC.
Speaker 5 (16:11):
This is not because you know, you don't get the
two seed like you could get the you could get
the Packers or the Seahawks or the Niners, the Rams,
the line like stuff.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
He just got so passionate he had to sit up
out of his charing cross his legs.
Speaker 3 (16:24):
But the NFC is not the The NFC will do
that to people. Can Yeah, the.
Speaker 4 (16:29):
NFC now is like what the a C used to be. Like,
there's no now. Granted we just talked about the SIC
could have some of those top teams sneaking to get
the six or seven, but you're you're not getting a
free pass in the first round of the NFC playoffs.
That Wildcar weekend is going to be crazy, so especially.
Speaker 1 (16:46):
Because the Sade Coots baby, oh yeah, I think the
Panthers look like they might make the playoffs. Who knows
what the Bucks could be. One of those two teams
will end up being out doubt they'll both get in.
Speaker 4 (16:57):
Yeah, play each other again twice?
Speaker 2 (16:59):
I think two times, right, Yeah, I think that they
end the season with each other, and then like two
weeks before that, while we're.
Speaker 1 (17:04):
On the Eagles for a moment. Uh and well you've
got Thursday night football preview coming up. Our plant the
Flag game, Evans Primer. Is still a lot to get
to here on the episode, justin Herbert is day to
day after getting surgery on his hand. Kind of feels
like the odds makers are playing the middle with this line.
The Eagles are two and a half point road favorites here, Stucky,
Is that how you see it as far as the
(17:26):
way the line is set right now, hard to put
any action on this game until we know what's going
on with Herbert.
Speaker 4 (17:33):
Yeah, I mean I think he's going to play, but
there obviously is some uncertainty. What's the ball security going
to be? Like, you know, he obviously just is a
higher injury risk, like if something happens to it and
he has to come out. And then you get Trey Lance.
I'm assuming you'll.
Speaker 2 (17:49):
See Tree Lance to go to the preseason.
Speaker 4 (17:51):
I'm assuming you'll get Tree lancing goal line packages when
some goal line packages, some goal line looks. But yeah,
I mean I would I would assume that if Herbert,
you know, I'll tell you what I make it. If
Herbert was in and like there was no questions. I
(18:11):
mean this, I think that this game would be like, remember,
the Chargers don't have much of a home field, like you,
there might be more Eagles fans, I don't know, even
though it's across the country. Yeah, I mean I think
that this line would be like one with a healthy.
Speaker 3 (18:27):
Herbert plus one Chargers.
Speaker 4 (18:31):
Yeah, probably Eagles minus one. Ish The biggest like, can
the Eagles defensive line? This is the biggest concern if you, like,
if you're betting the charters, and then why the hand
becomes a bigger issue because you're behind a much aligned
offensive line that's completely broken and then you have a
hand injury. Now granted it's not your throwing him, but
(18:51):
now you're going up against the Eagles defensive line. That
that could be really problematic. But it's hard for me
to not see the Eagles offense not going into complete
hibernation for at least a half against a very game
Chargers defense. And it doesn't even matter who the defense is,
Like the Cowboys defense. I know they're trending up, but
(19:11):
the Eagles just didn't score for all half. The Bears defense,
they just didn't score for a whole half. It doesn't
matter who they play, so and the Chargers defense is
better than those teams. So yeah, I think that this
is a little bit of a ahead from odds makers
because they're they're definitely is some uncertainty, but I do
expect him to ply.
Speaker 1 (19:30):
But we'll see some more great analysis from the Favorites
coming your way momentarily. But first let's kick it over
to Kendrim Middleton for a word about DraftKings.
Speaker 2 (19:40):
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The crown is yours?
Speaker 3 (20:16):
All right, Kendra? Before we get back at it, what's
on your mind today?
Speaker 4 (20:20):
What sell could you be?
Speaker 2 (20:31):
Okay? I don't know if you guys saw this last night.
I took a screenshot of it because a lot of
people got got by this. There were a couple of
these like aggregate accounts and then like some of the
troll accounts last night during the game, and one of
the bigger ones tweeted hashtag Giants defensive end. Abdul Carter
will miss the first drive tonight for disciplinary reasons after
(20:52):
getting caught watching porn and a team meeting when his
headphones disconnected. So many of these media accounts got got
by this last night. It was unreal. I don't know
if you guys saw this, but I can't stop digging
into the tweets of the people who got got by this.
Like Abdul Carter was watching porn in a team meeting
(21:13):
piece but.
Speaker 4 (21:13):
Jenny was benched, and then he said after the game,
no comment, shit happens, which was so funny that these
two things happened that no one will say why he
was suspended. Were not suspended, but he didn't start, And yeah,
that was very funny, Like a troll account tweeted.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
That and the about Yeah, what would be the would
that be the proper response disciplinary action?
Speaker 4 (21:40):
If you're watching porn in a team meeting, yeah, you're
not gonna get suspended for a game, but you probably
don't start. It's hard to imagine he was doing that, but.
Speaker 2 (21:50):
Yeah, I would imagine you, guys, I went to college
when people would open their laptops and stuff would still
be playing because they forgot to close it out. If
I had a nickel for every time it happened to me,
I would have two nickels, which isn't a lot, but
it's weird that it happened twice.
Speaker 1 (22:04):
Yeah, that is that has always close out your browser. People,
it's not hard. There's a big ex at the top
right of the screen. Just take care of your business.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
So that's what's on my mind.
Speaker 3 (22:17):
I appreciate that I did not see that. It is amazing.
Speaker 1 (22:20):
I feel like you and I live in different sectors
of the Internet. Every single week. When I talked to Gendre,
whether it is on the podcast or off of the podcast.
Speaker 4 (22:35):
I've never had a laptop happened. The closest I came
to something like that happening was when I was in
like seventh grade. Oh dude, no, I was just looking up.
Speaker 6 (22:50):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (22:50):
It was probably porn, like just general porn, or it
was probably just like back.
Speaker 2 (22:54):
Then, I mean Google search for big titties.
Speaker 4 (22:58):
Yeah, it was. I just know that it was not
good or why I wasn't supposed to look. But then
I because my mom wasn't home yet, and then I
fell asleep on the couch and then I woke up
and my mom was on the computer and I was like, oh,
I didn't X out, I don't think, so my mom
had to x out and then luckily she didn't say anything,
but it was very awkward. I pretended to sleep for
(23:19):
like four hours longer because I didn't want to like
face her. And yeah, I will never forget that I
learned my lesson young.
Speaker 3 (23:29):
I have a very similar story.
Speaker 1 (23:31):
I'm not going to bother telling it because it's basically
a copy and paste, but yeah, I think, uh, I
think every seventh.
Speaker 2 (23:37):
Three D we read right now Kravits this.
Speaker 1 (23:39):
Was it was Dan Anderson, and it was a print
out on the family printer, Okay, and I found I
found it later in a different room than where I
had it, and it was displayed like we got you.
Speaker 3 (23:57):
It has never been. This is why my face is
this read this is discredible.
Speaker 2 (24:04):
I'm gonna you, guys.
Speaker 3 (24:05):
I'm.
Speaker 4 (24:08):
Is hilarious.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
My face hurt.
Speaker 3 (24:12):
For the younger audience, you guys do there's probably not
even color was it wasn't it was flack.
Speaker 4 (24:20):
The struggle that kids don't know about these days.
Speaker 2 (24:23):
Modern day Pamela Anderson happening in an NFL meeting, You guys,
that's exactly what you maybe my tinfoil hat is on.
Speaker 1 (24:31):
I think the important note here is that kids today
do not understand the prime pam Anderson in black and white.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
We had to work for it back in the day.
Speaker 2 (24:42):
Okay, kids, I do have When my grandpa died, I
was cleaning out his house and my inheritance was a
Winston Racing snapback and his vintage porn mags and full Bush.
Those are my coffee table books in my house.
Speaker 4 (25:01):
And Battleship.
Speaker 2 (25:01):
I see, yeah, yeah, yeah, we yeah. Anyways, So.
Speaker 3 (25:08):
Lions minus three on Thursday night.
Speaker 1 (25:10):
Football's ticking on the Dallas Cowboys, total sitting at fifty four.
The two Thanksgiving featured squads squaring off, and it feels
like these two are headed in opposite directions. I'm sorry
there was no smooth transition. I'm just ripping the band
aid off. No surprise here. The bets and the money
are pouring in on the Dallas Cowboys. They feel like
(25:31):
the more fun bets. However, I mean, the trends are
still out there for this Lions team Campbell Golf, still
streaking after a loss. They've won fourteen in a row
back to twenty twenty two, thirteen and one ats in
the last fourteen after a loss. So this is very
much current form Dallas versus trends and basic betting logic
(25:57):
on the Lions.
Speaker 3 (25:58):
And I'm honestly not or which way to tilt. Kendrick.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
Do you have an early lean on this game Thursday
Night Football?
Speaker 2 (26:07):
Yeah, listen, Like, the Cowboys are fun. I'm a Jerry
Jones hater, but they're fun right now. They're they're even
though they killed my bet the other day, like they're
entertaining the thing. For me, if the Lions were healthy,
I would like the Lions in this spot, but seventy
percent of their offense is on the injury report. So
I just it's hard for me to sit here and
(26:27):
pick a side with a team with momentum who got
better at the trade deadline, And if it weren't for
you know, some of these silly little things that the
Cowboys tend to do, Dak would be having a career year.
So it's hard for me to sit here right now
on a day where I don't have an injury report
in front of me and kind of give like an
eloquent take on this. But the Lions are just injured
and the Cowboys are finding momentum at a good time.
(26:51):
I will probably circle back to this game once this
injury report is finalized, but right now, I just I can't.
I can't get to the window on either.
Speaker 1 (26:59):
Side, trends or momentum. Which side do you lean, Stuckey, Yeah,
I mean I.
Speaker 4 (27:05):
Don't these Lions trends I've been saying for the month,
like put in the bed. This isn't the same Lions team,
Like yeah, yeah, I mean they won after a loss
against the Eagles, but they should have lost to the
Giants at home and didn't come close to covering. And
they didn't cover at home against the Packers. And that's
two straight games at home. They haven't covered usually this team,
(27:25):
and they haven't covered three in a row. This team
is a covering wagon. What's wrong with the offensive line
is not the same. They have tons of injuries on offense,
They have injuries in the back end of the defense.
The play calling isn't the same. Look at what Ben
Johnson's doing with Chicago. That's not happening in Detroit. This
is not the same Lions team. And you know, like
(27:46):
and Kendrick's right, like, well, here's the thing. There's you
could these two teams are head in an opposite directions.
Like the Cowboys offense is electric. I mean, Pickens has
been incredible. Jack's playing at an MVP level that Clayton
Adams higher was amazing. Like the their run game has
been a good complimentary piece when no one, including myself,
thought that was going to be the case. But you
(28:06):
got Lamb ferguson Dak Pickens. That offense is gonna score
on anybody. And then it's a defense that's trending up
because you know, you added Quinn Williams, you got a
bunch of other pieces in the secondary and the linebacker
back healthy. So the run defense is now formidable and
they can get pressure.
Speaker 2 (28:22):
Now.
Speaker 4 (28:23):
The pass defense still has some holes and some questions.
But are the Lions gonna be able to take advantage
like throwing to like what Tom Kennedy, I mean, Sam
Laporta is a big loss. Their offensive line has tons of.
Speaker 2 (28:35):
Injuries, respect Isaac tess Law.
Speaker 4 (28:38):
Yeah, but they have I mean net Rock right, their
backup tight end is now probably out. Is Aman Raj
gonna play?
Speaker 6 (28:46):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (28:46):
That's huge. So here's the thing. These two teams are
headed in opposite directions. Like I don't think the Lions
are gonna make the playoffs. This game is I think
this game is an elimination game. Every game the Cowboys
need because they set themselves so far behind the almost
every game for the Cowboys as a must win. If
the Lions lose this game, they drop to seven and six,
a place you don't want to be in the NFC.
(29:08):
And they go to the Rams next, and you know,
they go to Chicago to close the year. They go
to Minnesota, but they already lost to the Vikings. Not
an easy place to play. I think they're done if
they lose this game, but a lot of injuries. But
here's the thing. The line, the look at line, which
it's not the most efficient market, but it gives you
a general read of where the market is on some
(29:28):
of these teams. Was six six and a half. So
this is a big adjustment down Now we're talking three.
I think it's the correct adjustment, but I wouldn't be
running to bet the Cowboys at three. But I'm also
not betting the lines. I got this think three is
the right line here.
Speaker 2 (29:45):
Well, it would be so NFC East for the Cowboys
to have this, you know, progress made at this point
in the season, and the Eagles really hit that point
of regression and the Cowboys win this division because of
how hard it is to continue to win in the
NFC East. So maybe that's the play, is whatever the
Cowboys are at.
Speaker 4 (30:05):
To win the division.
Speaker 2 (30:08):
Yeah, like, maybe that's the play here.
Speaker 1 (30:10):
Truly, they do feel like the best team in the
division at the moment. If this were to tick down,
those save money continues to pour in on Dallas, we
get Lions minus two and a half with that, with
that three being as key as it is, would that
be enough to make you want to buy in on Detroit.
Speaker 4 (30:26):
Possibly, it depends on the injury report.
Speaker 1 (30:29):
It's most likely the fact that Frank Ragnow tried to
come out of retirement on this offensive line and they
were like, nah, you can't.
Speaker 3 (30:37):
That's a problem.
Speaker 2 (30:38):
That's so sad though, Like imagine.
Speaker 1 (30:41):
He's like, I want to come and save you and
uh and then didn't pass the physical time.
Speaker 4 (30:46):
I just told the Lions games right and that like
line's at three in a shootout game. I mean, you
know what this is going to come down to. In
the last two weeks, it hasn't worked out for degenerate Dan.
He's what they're like, Oh, I don't know. They went
four down against hard They went oh of five on
(31:10):
fourth downs against the Eagles, So yeah, you know that
degenerate Dan. Yeah, so they're all of seven on fourth
downs over their past three games. You know, Degenerate Dan
is gonna be going on fourth downs and in a
game the Lions are gonna be able to put up
points on the Cowboys off and that the Cow's gonna
(31:32):
be able to score. They can score on anybody. So
what's this How's this game probably gonna be decided a
couple of lines, fourth downs, A shut up. I'm trying
to plant my flag here.
Speaker 7 (31:44):
Okay, you're really.
Speaker 3 (31:45):
Planting your flag in that deck?
Speaker 1 (31:47):
Time to plant are flag presented by DraftKings.
Speaker 3 (31:50):
The crown is yours. I'll get us started.
Speaker 1 (31:52):
I'm gonna go with the Baltimore Ravens minus five and
a half against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I think the lore
around this rivalry is helping to drive the price down.
The fact that the Ravens got dusted last week against
Cincinnati that helped keeps the helps to keep the price down.
But it's not like Pittsburgh's been all that good either.
They got blown out by Buffalo, They've lost three of
their last four, five of the last seven, and the
(32:15):
tides they may be shifting in this matchup as well.
Last two meetings between the Ravens and the Steelers have
not been close games. Ravens by fourteen, Ravens by seventeen.
I'll take the Ravens now before this ticks back up
to six. Still six at DraftKings five and a half
if you can get it.
Speaker 3 (32:34):
But I like the Ravens in this matchup.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
Does it not feel like one of these weird games
that the Steelers win though to you, like coming off
a loss the whole, like Mike Tomlin argument in Division,
I get, you know, you just gave like the stats
of the scores of the last couple matchups, but like
this just feels weirdly like a Steelers spot of a
game that they win when they shouldn't.
Speaker 1 (32:54):
I kind of feel the same all about the Steelers
that Stucky does about the current iteration of the Lions.
I feel like all of these trends and the raw
raw Tomlin stuff, that all of that feels pass.
Speaker 3 (33:05):
A at this point.
Speaker 1 (33:06):
This doesn't feel like the same organization because they don't
bring us the same way defensively that used to be. Hey,
at any point, if they're at a low, they just
lean on defense and they're.
Speaker 2 (33:15):
Running, running the ball. That was the identity.
Speaker 3 (33:17):
Yeah, and they can't do that right now.
Speaker 4 (33:19):
Yeah, it's my concern. I don't know if Evan has
this as primer, but I do think that when these
teams have been Tomlin and Harball have met over the
past seventeen years, I do think that under when either
as an underdog of three or more points, it's like
eighteen one in three against the spread, it's insane. I think,
like literally, I think it's like ninety percent, and the
(33:39):
amount of games that have been decided by three points
is insane. But you're right, the Steelers defense is not
the same. I mean, the Bills ran the same running
by twenty seven plays twenty seven times last week and
they Steelers couldn't stop it. They have injuries on defense,
Aaron Rodgers having to go out of the pistol with
his hurt hand. The offense is just dysfunctional. Aaron Rodgers
has been over the past four weeks, has been the
(34:01):
worst quarterback in the NFL. Statistically, if you look at
EPA plus completion percentage of expectation, he's worse than Shador
Gabriel dead last. The offense is not working right now,
but neither is the Ravens offense. Like Lamar doesn't have
the same burst. There's hope for the Ravens, like I
don't see hope for the Steelers. It's just how is
this going to get fixed? Then the receivers can't get separation.
(34:23):
Rogers is hurt now once You's like if Lamar, like
if that burst comes back now. The Steers have done
a really good job against Lamar, Jackson Astor. But they
usually have a really good game plan. But this is
a game where the Ravens can just line up and
run it. Are the Steelers, Like look in the steer,
that's all the Bills did. The Bills run the same
two plays the entire game instead of record stadium record.
(34:44):
But I do get the hebgb's when it comes to wanting,
because I want to lay it with the Ravens here too.
But I've just seen so many Ravens Steelers games at
all end up three, no matter what, like it's just
it'll be the team ten somehow. Overall, since twenty five,
the underdog in this series is twenty nine twelve and
(35:06):
three against the spread seventy one percent. When the line
is three or more points, the underdog is twenty three
five and three against spread, which is silly.
Speaker 3 (35:16):
But it is very very much so might not apply.
Speaker 4 (35:20):
It also might not apply to the Ravens. Like the
Ravens offense right now is also broken.
Speaker 3 (35:25):
They they have not looked good.
Speaker 1 (35:27):
I think the word hope that you laid out as
part of the reason why I am on Baltimore here,
I have faith that they can bounce back. I don't
feel the same way about Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (35:37):
And two thousand.
Speaker 1 (35:38):
Going back to two thousand and five, we're talking about
Ben Roethlisberger, one of the greatest quarterbacks I've ever seen
play the game, some elite defenses. I think that we're
getting caught up in the logos here. This line should
be closer to seven. In my opinion, Kendro, what about
you plant the flag.
Speaker 2 (35:52):
I'm gonna plant my flag on the Bengals. When I
saw this number at plus six, I was absolutely shook,
didn't believe it, and I thought our website was off.
It is not. We've seen what Joe Burrow can do
when he's coming from behind. He plays with a vengeance.
I think that he probably should have been even more
considered for MVP last year, considering how much time he
you know, missed and came back and just played like
(36:14):
an insane person kind of doing the same thing right now.
The injury reports as well so far from me, have
been a little concerning for Buffalo. So I really like
this number. And the thing is the Bengals, they get
their schedule gets easier. They have the Bills this week,
and they have the Ravens this week, and then they
finish out with the Dolphins, Cardinals, and Browns. I think
(36:34):
that if they can find a way to get stay
healthy through these you know, gauntlet of these couple games,
especially the next Ravens game, they might be on a
little bit of a tear. So I'm gonna go with
the Bengals.
Speaker 1 (36:45):
To Higgins coming back as well as an underdog Joe
Burrow twenty and eleven against the spread. If it's a
dog of three or more, he is eighteen and three.
Ats gonna be cold at kickoff, So I think a
lot of people are gonna look to back a home
team Buffalo squad. It looks really strong right now, wintery,
(37:06):
cold weather. But I think Burrow plays well. We've seen
him go into Buffalo in the playoffs and get a
win against this Bills team, So I like that. I
was looking the way of the Bengals myself. Stucky you
read on that and you're playing the flag.
Speaker 4 (37:23):
I watching some injuries there. I mean, I don't think
the Bills will be able to The Bengals defense is
really bad too. I don't think that they'll be able
to run the seam two plays like they did last week.
But who knows. The Bengals offense is obviously much more
efficient explosive. The Bengals run game also, and some of
their run concepts can give Buffalo issues. This is a
huge game for Cincy. If the Bengals can win this game,
(37:47):
I mean, they're live for the division because they get
to host the Ravens. The Ravens and Steelers play each
other twice, so if they split right, and then you
look at the rest of the Bengals schedule, as Kendra mentioned,
it's they host the Ravens and it's Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns.
But if they lose this game, probably done because because
(38:08):
again the Ravens and Steers play each other. So this
is an enormous game for the Bengals.
Speaker 2 (38:16):
There's a lot of big games this week, to be honest.
Speaker 4 (38:19):
Yeah, a lot, a lot of a lot of big games.
Like I mentioned, the Charger Eagles game is huge. Like Eagles,
they want that one seed. They're gonna have to win
this if not, like in Dallas, wins is the division
in question. The Chargers have a brutal schedule after this.
Speaker 2 (38:34):
Game.
Speaker 4 (38:35):
That game I think is elimination.
Speaker 2 (38:37):
That's an elimination game. I agree with you absolutely.
Speaker 3 (38:39):
We mentioned the Jags Colts.
Speaker 4 (38:41):
Is the Jags the first place.
Speaker 2 (38:42):
It's a massive weekend.
Speaker 4 (38:44):
Dude, Monday night they on the Monday Night graphic, they
put race for the one seed. They put in the act.
They put Broncos, Patriots, and Colts. I was like, this
week too, Like Bags are in first place with an
easier schedule. They put the Colts up there.
Speaker 2 (39:00):
Nobody's talking about the Jags. I'll bitch about that for eternity.
Everyone's like Denver, Houston, Indianapolis, all this stuff. I'm like,
the Jags lead the division. You guys won't even give
them their flowers. Like, don't get me wrong, I don't
believe in this team going anywhere either.
Speaker 4 (39:14):
You're not talking about the Jags either.
Speaker 2 (39:16):
Hell Ma, no, that team is like this is your yeah,
let me let me fall on this sword, however I choose. Okay,
I've been going through the scrap for far too long.
Speaker 4 (39:28):
Jags super Bowl. Uh, that's I'm playing.
Speaker 2 (39:32):
Jackson super Bowl this year. I will get the Lombardi
Trophy tattooed on my left ass cheek.
Speaker 4 (39:37):
All right, that's.
Speaker 1 (39:40):
Your first uh Jags future as he said, we're right
that one in.
Speaker 4 (39:44):
That's that's what I'm.
Speaker 2 (39:45):
Playing I'm dead ass. I will get the Lombardi Trophy
on my left ass cheek. I have a huge like yeah, yeah.
Speaker 4 (39:53):
Uh now, plany my flag. I'll plan my flag on.
I'm gonna with the Falcons plus seven and a half
against the Falcons, excuse me, against the Seahawks at home.
I think number one, this is a it's a cell
(40:15):
hive of the Seahawks. I think, I mean, they're nine
to three against the spread. We're at the peak of
the market on them. Look and look you look back
last week that that game was three to nothing at
the end of the first half and Brosmuth would played
one of the worst quarterback games of all time. Was
shut down, shut to completely shut down. They were using
(40:36):
like they and the the Vikings and the Falcons, very
zone heavy teams that can get pressure that blitz. Seahawks
have some offensive line injuries. Darnold very quietly has been
very poor over the past month.
Speaker 2 (40:49):
Yeah, I think that they make I mean quietly didn't
throw like five interceptions.
Speaker 4 (40:55):
The Rams, but he hasn't been great in other games
where they just and look the last two weeks they
played cam and the Titans and then the Brosmer and
the Vikings and the Falcons. Look, the Falcons aren't aren't great,
but this is a team that last week they dominated
the Jets like they should have won that game, like
statistically they got beat on special teams, like they had
(41:18):
a mouth to punt at the five like statistically they
were way better. The Falcons are one in four over
their past five games with one second to go in regulation.
They trailed once and it was by one point at
the Patriots. That's it. They lost in overtime to the Colts.
Easily could have won that game on the neutral field,
(41:40):
Blew a big lead against the Panthers, lost in overtime,
lost a game that they should have won at New York,
lost on a fifty two yard field walk off field goal,
and then beat the Saints. I mean they were one
in four of the past five games there with a
positive scoring differential. They've only trailed once by one point
at New England with one second to go in regulation,
and there's a good there's a decent chance Drake London
(42:03):
comes back. Kirk Cousins has looked better in the past
two weeks. The Falcons numbers aren't great versus heavy personnel,
which they'll see a lot of against Seattle, but if
you filter out with him without Devon Diablo, it's like
a three yard difference. He makes a huge difference against
the run. Seahawks aren't a great rushing team efficiency wise.
That's how you really want to attack the Falcons. And
(42:24):
here's who I think they really miss is my guy
Tory Orton, because a lot of times they just have
two receivers out there and they're not. Shh Heed's only
playing like thirty forty fifty percent. He's done nothing. What
is she? Het has like seven catches in four games.
He's supposed to be like this piece. And now it's
like Cooper Cup, the corpse of Cooper Cup. And then
(42:45):
JSN and now I think teams saw what the Vikings
did last week, a lot of help over the top,
more cloud coverages to kind of take away JSN, and
the Falcons do it generally do a good job of
taking away explosive pass plays. I just think this line
is too high. I think the Falcons will be in
this game at home, So give me over a touchdown
with Atlanta.
Speaker 1 (43:06):
A gross Falcons dog bet after losing to the Jets.
Speaker 3 (43:10):
This is versical.
Speaker 4 (43:10):
Do you want to bet the Jags. I mean, the
Falcons is dogs. You don't never want to bet them
as favorites, Like this is going on for years and
for what it's worth the just like I love fading
teams off of like shutout wins. This isn't gospel, but
road teams off of a home shutout, right, So like this, Oh,
(43:30):
look look at this team. They just want twenty six
to nothing. Road teams off a home shutout over the
past twenty five years, seventeen thirty five and one against
the spread thirty two point seven percent. So yeah, and
the Falcons lost the game they should have won. Last week.
Seahawks benefited from facing Frosmer Darnold kind of trending down
a bit that the defenses have tape on this offense
(43:53):
or they're adjusting a bit better. So yeah, I'll take
I'll take the seven. I think it's nice too high.
Speaker 1 (44:00):
Our play at the Flag Games presented by DraftKings. The
Crown is yours. Kendra is on the Bengals plus six,
Stucky on the Falcons plus seven and a half, and
I will lay it with the Baltimore Ravens minus five.
Speaker 3 (44:13):
And a half.
Speaker 1 (44:14):
Evan Abrams bring us home the Primer is poppin this
week over at actionnetwork dot com. Evan, what are the
trends that we need to be aware of before we
go firing away on the apps.
Speaker 6 (44:25):
Yeah, so Tuesday morning we're recording here.
Speaker 7 (44:27):
Primer is now live on the site, so check it
out with all the great games this weekend. I think
the biggest really topic of conversation across the league, and
you hear it across almost every show, is just a
parody in the league. So I took a look at it,
and during Week fourteen, we currently have seventeen teams listed
below fifty to one odds to win the Super Bowl.
That would be the most for any season dating back
(44:49):
to at least twenty ten. The previous high was fifteen
teams in twenty seventeen, So seventeen teams currently under fifty
to one seems like a lot. It is also twelve
teams these four games above five hundred right now tied
for the most in NFL history. So right now, absolutely
anybody can win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 6 (45:07):
You've heard it.
Speaker 7 (45:07):
Everywhere, and the odds kind of tell you that. I
feel like the other story. You look at the board
and you say Tennessee, Cleveland, thirty three and a half
seems like a fun topic to talk about, but listen,
since it started twenty ten, be the third lowest total
in an outdoor game in freezing temperatures, so we do
not see this a lot. Thirty two and a half
(45:27):
Saints Brown's in twenty twenty two, and of course the
infamous lowest total NFL history twenty eight and a half
Jets Patriots in twenty twenty three.
Speaker 6 (45:35):
So two rookies and a low total can't wait.
Speaker 1 (45:39):
And two rookies where there was a lot of debate
about these two leading up to draft season. Of course,
cam Ward really started to separate himself as we got
closer to April one, up being the number one overall
pick and Shador Sanders a shock to us. All drops
to the fifth round. But that game gonna be nice
and disgusting. And it looks like the Browns are taking
money too. They were minus three and a half when
(46:01):
we started recording. They're minus four and a half now
against the Tennessee Titans. Could you imagine sitting there on
Sunday laying it with the Cleveland Browns and it might
not be a bad idea.
Speaker 3 (46:11):
I don't think of it.
Speaker 4 (46:12):
When's the last time I had a total under thirty three?
Speaker 7 (46:15):
Last year under thirty three would be that thirty two
and a half game, I believe Cleveland and Miami or
No Saints Brown's twenty twenty two.
Speaker 4 (46:26):
Man, what are the what's the updated win forecasts for that?
Speaker 6 (46:29):
It's honestly not that bad. I only see like ten
eleven miles an hour. It's just supposed to be.
Speaker 4 (46:33):
So this might have been like this total could if
there was like thirty mine hour wins, this total could
have been like twenty nine and a half.
Speaker 7 (46:40):
I mean, it's not often stuck. You see the look
ahead at thirty five and a half, like usually weather,
to get a weather, we'll drive it down. It started
super low, so I think it really depends how the
week goes.
Speaker 4 (46:50):
There was some There was some games in like the
mid two thousands. I don't know if you had this
up if you want to, like pull up on action labs.
The like the lowest totals we've ever had, But they're
like the Bears, like the mid two thousand Bears teams
that were like dominant defensively with horrendous quarterback play, and
(47:13):
then when they would have a really windy game there.
I think there might have been a total that was
like twenty nine and a half.
Speaker 7 (47:20):
I mean, yeah, there's been. I mean twenty eight and
a half is the record. We saw that with the
snow Crazy game with New England and the Jets. There's
a ton of two thousand and five, two thousand and four.
Speaker 4 (47:31):
Bears, like three eights maybe.
Speaker 6 (47:34):
Yeah, thirty thirty one and a half, thirty and a half.
It's usually Bears at home and Browns at home is
where you get the lowest totals in NFL history.
Speaker 4 (47:43):
Yeah, with the wind. But yeah, those Bears teams. I
think I remember a twenty nine and a half one.
There was that Bears forty nine ers. I don't know
what the total was, but the Chris Berman on the
the on when he wo and the Bogos, they try
to kick a field goal and it goes and it
literally goes thirty yards right in the wind.
Speaker 6 (48:05):
Yeah, I believe it's Bears Niners.
Speaker 7 (48:07):
Two thousand and five total was thirty seventeen to nine
final and there.
Speaker 4 (48:12):
Was Nathan Vasher had one hundred and eight yard kick
missed field goal return at the end of the half.
And it's still went under here ready.
Speaker 7 (48:23):
Watch this field goal attempt by Robbie's solid fool to
the Bears.
Speaker 2 (48:28):
You think it's windy, understatement of the year and the
kick us up, it's on the.
Speaker 3 (48:32):
Way and it's no good man, Harry Goes. They had
no shit.
Speaker 4 (48:41):
It went out of the end zone.
Speaker 3 (48:43):
There will never be another.
Speaker 4 (48:45):
Yeah, NFL Prime Time back in the days best. It's
so long. But I used to watch that every night,
every night after the NFL games. But yeah, so that
was thirty, said Evan.
Speaker 3 (48:55):
Yeah, I mean I Evan will let you go back
to your layer. Thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (48:59):
Go and check it out actionnetwork dot Com or on
the Action Network app. That's gonna do it for today's
episode special thanks to our producers David Paine and Gifford Gould.
Speaker 3 (49:07):
The Favorites will return on Thursday.
Speaker 1 (49:10):
Right here on the Action Network YouTube page, we talk
Week fourteen best Bets, Lay it all on the line,
two Kings and a Queen Parlay.
Speaker 3 (49:17):
We'll see you next time right here on.
Speaker 1 (49:19):
The Favorites presented by DraftKings, We're out.
Speaker 2 (49:32):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available.
Twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
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