September 16, 2025 • 52 mins
Fresh off a late night Monday Night Football doubleheader, Action Network hosts Kendra Middleton, Stuckey and Brandon Kravitz return to preview NFL Week 3. After airing her grievances with the Chargers at Raiders game, Kendra is thrilled to fade her local New England Patriots for a third consecutive week. Meanwhile, Stuckey dives into the plausibility of Vikings victory, a Jake Browning playoff push in Cincinnati, and why he hasn't attended a concert in 20 years.
Later, we get our weekly NFL Primer courtesy of Action Director of Research Evan Abrams, delivering everything you need to start your betting week in the NFL.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Welcome to the Favorites podcast, part of the Action Network.
Your Favorite Trio is back. I'm your host, Brandon Kravitz,
joined by the wonderfully insightful and talented Stucky and Kendrick Middleton.
On today's episode, We've got our plant the flag, game
of the week for week three, some picks that have
us in a pickle, and of course the main event
(00:31):
evans Tuesday Primer guys, sort of a weird week for me.
Tomorrow night, I'm headed to the Sleep Token concert. I
don't know if you've ever heard of this band. I
sent a picture of the lead singer in our group
chat slightly frightening. It's members in the band remain anonymous
because they all wear masks, so you can kind of
(00:52):
get an idea, like think old school wrestling. Demolition is
kind of what I'm going to here any words of them,
because I feel like a complete fish out of water,
like Irock Khaki's on a regular basis, I feel like
I don't fit it.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
Square black that would be, I think the best thing
you can do. I know that you have a pair
of black pants, I know you have a black T shirt.
Speaker 3 (01:13):
Just wear black.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
I went to see Red Hot Chili Peppers or in
Atlanta a couple of years ago and they had some
like K pop scream o band come out and apparently
they're huge, and I had no idea and half of
the crowd was there to see them, and it was
the It was like little girls screaming with like heavy
metal in the back. Oh, there's some One of their
songs is like something chocolate. I know somebody who's gonna
(01:35):
watch this on YouTube is gonna know exactly what I'm
talking about.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
I'm gonna have to send it to you guys later.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
But I'm sitting there just watching their opener and these
little girls come out in these scary like death metal
costumes and just start screaming. And it was the weirdest
experience I've ever felt in my life. I was not
dressed in enough black just when end out black it out?
Speaker 1 (01:54):
All right? No eyeliner, skip the eyeliner, just go or
like should I go football EyeBlack under.
Speaker 3 (01:59):
The Derek Carr.
Speaker 4 (02:01):
Yes, I have no advice. I haven't been to a
concert since college sports. From my life, I have not. Literally,
I think the last concert I went to was so
I went to school in DC. I honestly think it
was like Kanye West came for some college fest thing
(02:22):
and that was the last concert.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
Wow, you get to see him before he went absolutely bananas.
Speaker 4 (02:27):
Yeah, it was like college dropout albums. So yeah, that
was when.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
That's a vibrant See that's and that's my style. Like
I'm more of a catch a Kanye in his prime.
Maybe some Bruno mars. I'm going, I don't know how
my wife got into this group, but you know, she's
she's much more hardcore than I am. And I'm just
going to be a supportive husband. But I got to
get into it. Otherwise I'm gonna be that I'll be
the you know, the Jewish husband that's like, all right,
(02:53):
when's this thing gonna end? So I at least you
want to I at least want to do my part.
I just I don't know what I'm getting myself into.
A Yeah, well, like you know, like hip hop pop,
that's usually more my vibe.
Speaker 3 (03:06):
Isn't he in trouble for gambling?
Speaker 5 (03:08):
Oh?
Speaker 1 (03:09):
This is our kind of guy. We should get Bruno
on the on the Favorites podcast.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
I think he owes Vegas like a million dollars or something,
so he has to like perform his way out of it.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Oait, Yeah, I that's why I'm hosting this podcast. Also,
it's well behind the scenes for all of you.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
No, it's remember I did read that that.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
He I'm reading allegedly is the is the proper phrasing
on Bruno and his gambling exploits.
Speaker 4 (03:35):
From anywhere from seven million to fifty million.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
That's a big number.
Speaker 1 (03:41):
You got really suck at this. That's like some Drake
stats right.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
There, the guy who screwed the Jaguars over on FanDuel
or whatever.
Speaker 4 (03:50):
I gotta look at it this more. We'll put you
on the spot. What if i'd put you if I
dropped you on a stage? What what?
Speaker 5 (03:59):
What?
Speaker 4 (04:01):
And you you had to do something? It was a
talent show and I just dropped you there and there
was one hundred thousand people in the crowd. What would
your talent pay? Do you have any talent?
Speaker 1 (04:10):
So I did a talent show when I was in
high school. This is one of the most embarrassing stories
I can tell. I have a hoodie on right now
so I can actually reenact this. My headphones are on,
but I don't have any talents. This is about what
we're doing right now. Is about the extent of what
I would consider talent for me. So I was helping
someone out in high school that put on a talent
(04:30):
show and they said, I need more participants, will you
do something? And so I was pretty big into working
out at the time, so I said, I'll do a
hundred push ups. So that was gonna be my talent.
And I came out to Eminem's Lose Yourself with a
zip up hoodie on. I unzip the hoodie, I throw
the jacket off. We're going like Chippendale style, and I
(04:53):
stopped hard at seventy four. It was very embarrassing. Did
you go to a hundred? I don't know if anybody else,
but I definitely just sort of collapsed onto the stage.
So I'm I'm definitely afraid of talent shows now. So
I'm a little bit nervous even just answering that.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
I think I would probably this sounds really weird and
it's not really a talent. But I can crack a
lot of really random bones in my body, like repeatedly,
Like I can pop my hips repeatedly, my back repeatedly,
my fingers, like I can do all of that, So
that might be my talent is I can just crack
weird bones in my body. I can't think of anything else.
I'm actually a talentless loser.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
I think that's how we all got into this stucky
What about you?
Speaker 4 (05:35):
I mean, I've done, I've done, I do karaoke, and
I do like, how will I know about Whitney Houston?
Speaker 1 (05:42):
But you go Whitney Houston? This bold, my friend, You'd be.
Speaker 4 (05:48):
Sports I mean, my only talents are like sports trivia.
I can if you in twenty minutes, I can name
every country and capital of the world A one hundred
and nineties.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
No, that's phenom. That's really I.
Speaker 4 (06:00):
Would be like super boring, like sitting up there for
twenty minutes naming every capital and country.
Speaker 1 (06:05):
Now, could you imagine us standing on a stage as
the Favorites trio doing all three of these things like
I'm trying to crank out one hundred push ups unsuccessfully
and stuck. He's trying to name capitals around the world,
and Kendri just just over here kracking knuckles. That would
be I think if we did that as a triumvirent,
we'd actually have some that'd be unique. You could get
us on America's got talent.
Speaker 4 (06:26):
That is my bar play whatever. I'm at a bar,
and I'll just bet people all the time that I
can name every world capital and people will just start
They'll never they never believe that I can in able
to start firing countries. And then I've done this talland.
Speaker 1 (06:40):
How did that start?
Speaker 4 (06:42):
Ah? I just wanted to learn it one debt one time.
I like learning random things. It was useful to qualify
for Jeopardy, Like if you know every world capital, you
can get soon you would. You're like you're a base
for like Jeopardy questions. Just when a country comes up,
(07:03):
you just learn like all that you learn, like certain cities.
And so I don't know, I'm weird, but yeah, I
don't really have any other talents. Like I can't juggle.
I can't even whistle, like I'm still this day. I
can't whistle. I can only do the just one. I
don't know how people like whistle a tune can't do that.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
I'm pretty good at rock paper Scissors? Does that count
me too?
Speaker 3 (07:26):
Because I know the cheat code? Do you know the
cheat code?
Speaker 4 (07:28):
Everyone thinks are good at rock? Paer, there's actually a formula.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
There's a formula of rock paper scissors. There actually is,
do you guys, Let's play.
Speaker 4 (07:36):
First, let's sick. I don't have a formula, let's play.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
Oh okay, I go rock papers. Wait, now we're backwards
not at the same time. We're gonna have to do
this in person because we're not at the same time
streaming leg Yeah, we we will do. There actually is
a formula. Do you guys know who Live Morgan is
in WWE?
Speaker 1 (07:55):
Hell? Yeah, we had.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
We did a rock paper scissors battle when I did
like their netfl thing here, and her and I both
knew the formula and it took twenty minutes for us
to get a winner out of it because we both
knew the formula of how to beat someone at rock
paper scitors.
Speaker 3 (08:09):
I have a video of it. It was actually so intense.
Speaker 1 (08:11):
I didn't know that there was a formula to it.
I just am just really good at reading minds when
it comes to those.
Speaker 2 (08:16):
There's actually a formula to beat someone in rock paper scissors.
But I can maybe do like some karate stuff. I
did martial arts for my entire childhood, so maybe whenever
I'm drunk, I like to like have people put cans
on stuff and I'll Roundhouse it, so maybe that would
be my talent.
Speaker 3 (08:29):
I don't know, I'm not very comented.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
Well that's better than cracking up.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
Yeah, I really am talentless, Like I have no artistic
ability zero. I can't I can draw it the sun,
and I can't sing, can't dance, So yeah, I might
just have to have people ask me questions stuff. So yeah,
I would lose the talent show.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
But anyway, Lisa, I just wanted to set I'm glad
that we were able to springboard into our talentless lives.
But I want to give you guys an update on
Thursday's episode as to how this the concerts tomorrow night.
So this today is more about my anxiety surrounding it,
and then Thursday. I can't wait. The one thing I'm
(09:13):
really excited about is the people watching is going to
be tremendous. So I'll give you guys the full breakdown
of all of that. But before we get to the sides,
let's get to our main dish of the day. Some
news across the league. Baker Mayfield leads the charge to
snatch a win on the road against Houston, a gutsy
fourth down conversion on their final drive, breaking Stucky's heart
(09:33):
sitting there with the Texans mine. It's two and a
half ticket and the Chargers absolutely dominated the Raiders. The
Raiders might just be a bad football team, Stucky. Outside
of the heartbreaking l you took ats any big takeaways
from last night?
Speaker 4 (09:47):
Yeah, I always say your NFL weeks are all about
how much fun you had, and just those like the
games are always gonna be tight, markets are efficient. How
how those like final minutes of get your bets come
down to? And yeah, that was one that was zero fun.
And it was two weeks in a row. I had
the Falcons against the Bucks last week, so I've had
Baker Mayfield go down and score a touchdown and back
(10:11):
to back week so I alsow the Ravens against the Bills,
which was fun, Chiefs against the I've had a bunch
of bad No, I've had no fun through two weeks,
so hopefully that changes. But yeah, that was brutal. I
mean the Bucks ran it better than the Texans. The
Texas play calling still left a lot to be desired.
I thought they were going to really take a step,
Like the goal at the second and goal at the one,
(10:32):
those three plays were really they were confusing like the rollout,
and but they can't run the ball. It's still some
offensive line issues. I don't think the play calling was
that improved from I mean a lot of a lot
of the things I saw were like is Bobby Slogs
still there? So yeah, it was a good win for
the Bucks. But they, I mean they got a bit fortunate. Again.
(10:57):
I mean even in the first quarter, you had their
touchdown came off of and illegal hands to the face
on a third and long, which was not a made
up call, and then there was a tripping that they
didn't call. So then that those two touchdowns, the other
touchdown drive they had to drop pick. That was the
only time they scored until the last minute. But that's
what Baker Mayfield does in the last minute. All the
Texans had to do is come with a just compose
(11:21):
yourself on your your blitz and they would to tell
fourth and ten. I think they had like an eighty
five percent win probability on that play, but credit to
the Bucks probably deserved to win. Texans had some special
teams play go other way. But yeah, it was an
impressive last minute drive by Mayfield and company. And yeah,
Broke mart I had the Texans two in a round robin.
(11:45):
To close that around robin, I bet the Texans money
line live. I had the Texans minus two and a
half and in my big survivor pools ones that like
hay out millions of dollars. I get risky earlier on
I used the Texans, So.
Speaker 1 (12:02):
H that's brutal.
Speaker 4 (12:05):
And then yeah, the Chargers just were completely dominant that
defense so well schemed and Mintor put chip Kelly in
a blender. It was impressed performance and like Greg Roman,
like this, he's letting Herbert let it fly. And that's
like I was. I was very fearful and thought that
(12:27):
the Chargers like they did that because it was the Chiefs.
It was game one and they were going to go
back to being their old conservative selves. But yeah, they
look really good and they're obvious. They're the favorites to
win that division for a reason.
Speaker 1 (12:39):
I like how they just casually mentioned that Tom Brady
is working with Chip Kelly on offense with the Raiders,
and then they go and score nine points. Gino has
three picks. Kendrick. If the Raiders were good, people would
be pissed, and they might be. They might be anyway,
you can tell me. I know that people in your
area of the country get all fired up about Tom Brady,
(13:00):
But is that a big deal or is that something
because the Raiders aren't very good, No one's going to
give a shit.
Speaker 3 (13:06):
I think that it is a big deal.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
Do I think that Tom Brady being involved in any way,
shape or form in the NFL is awesome? Yes, But
here's the thing, and so many of those pregame production meetings,
there's so much information given away about their schemes and
if guys are healthy and what their game plan is
and YadA YadA. So it's like, it's not a Tom
Brady issue. If I were Tom and I was allowed
to have, you know, like a five percent ownership and
(13:30):
a team and also be on the broadcast to make
almost forty million dollars a year, it's not a Tom
Brady problem. It's the fact that the league and Fox
are letting.
Speaker 3 (13:36):
Him do this.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
So do I think that it's a bad thing for
the league? Weirdly yes, But it's not a Tom issue.
At some point, somebody's got a step in and be like, Hey,
if you're going to be on the broadcast.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
We change the rules for you.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
You can't you can't have the headset on in the booth,
so I think that that's an issue. Do I think
it's the biggest issue that the Raiders are facing right now?
Speaker 3 (13:55):
No, obviously not.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
I I'm not sure if this game says but the
Raiders are bad or the Chargers or that really that
really that good. I'm just I'm kind of in the
middle of the Chargers being the best team in that division,
but also the Raiders not being as bad as this
game showed. Really, honestly, I think Gino Smith was just
throwing some terrible, fuck it balls inaccurate uugh, just terrible
(14:19):
at certain points in this game, and it just it
got boring quickly. I think mostly I put it on Gino,
to be honest, like the fact that you held the
Chargers to twenty points, I don't.
Speaker 3 (14:28):
I don't think that that's I don't.
Speaker 2 (14:29):
I think the Raiders are better than what we watched
last night. If you look at the box score, it's like, okay, yeah, whatever.
I'm not about a box score mouth breather watcher, So
that's not my vibe. I think that it's somewhere in
the middle of the Chargers being a top team right
now and the Raiders being a little bit better than
they were potentially climbing that ladder a little bit. They
(14:50):
didn't look good last night. I think people are looking
into it a little bit too much. The Tom Brady thing.
I think that there's definitely something there, but it's not
a Tom Brady issue.
Speaker 3 (14:57):
It's a league and a Fox Sports issue.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
As far as the Bucks Texans game goes, Baker Mayfield's
balls just do not fit in his pants. It's actually
so impressive, like absolutely beyond impressive. He I love the
kind of like character arc that his career has had.
But I think my biggest takeaway from everything last night
is that I hate the Monday night doubleheader.
Speaker 3 (15:20):
I hate it so much.
Speaker 4 (15:24):
Oh well, I also would say I don't mind it done.
Speaker 1 (15:27):
Less shitty one pm game. Give it to me every week.
They should do this every week, shave one off of
the one pm slate, throw it on Monday.
Speaker 4 (15:36):
No, it does maybe less productive because I gotta start
getting into I get into start just diving into the
week hard right after the last Monday Night game, so
when there's two that it's a couple hours later. But
I don't like when they're staggered Monday Night I've watched
football in multiple games all weekend. I'd like to just
have one and then if you're gonna get another one,
give it to me after. But look, kad gin know
(15:58):
it was just a He was inaccurate. But the Chargers
defense was amazing. Darwin James was amazing. There wasn't much separation,
but Gino was inaccurate, and usually that's one of his strengths,
especially indoors were usually thrives. So I think the Raiders
offense will be better. Bowers wasn't one hundred percent. They
were missing their right guard, so I think their offense
will be better. But that's another black eye on the
Patriots defense, who really needs Gonzales back, because look, they
(16:22):
at the score board didn't show it as far as points,
but they moved up and down the field Against the Patriots,
Gino threw for what three point fifty in that game
or something something along those lines, so they were moving
the ball will And then they couldn't move the ball
at all against the Chargers. And then we saw the Dolphins,
who their entire offensive line is depleted. They basically couldn't
(16:43):
score a point until garbage against the Colts, and we
saw what the Dolphins did against the Patriots, putting up
nearly four hundred yards, So the Patriots defense definitely has
some issues. Christian Gonzales will help a lot when he
comes back.
Speaker 1 (16:58):
AFC West. The public the dollars all in on the
Chargers minus won ten right now over at DraftKings to
win the division the Chiefs. You want to buy a
low opportunity. How about the Chiefs at nearly three to
one there plus two seventy to win the AFC West
quarterbacks going down fast and furious. That's one of the
big storylines this week. JJ McCarthy is out with an
(17:21):
ankle injury. Joe Burrow out several months. So we have
Jake Browning versus Carson Wentz. Kendra, are you still in
You were in Sunday Night Early Reads you wanted to
take the Minnesota Vikings. I don't know if you pulled
the trigger on that yet, but I did not take
God Okay, So are you off of that with this nonsense?
Speaker 3 (17:40):
Okay?
Speaker 2 (17:41):
Is it bad that I kind of like the Vikings
more than I did a couple of nights ago? Because
if you're gonna give me all right, let's say you
need to go out and win one game right now,
and you have, you know, a backyard pick them, Jake
Browning or Carson Wentz. I'm gonna take Carson Wentz every
single time.
Speaker 1 (17:59):
Yeah about seven years ago.
Speaker 3 (18:02):
Yeah, but Jeeke, I mean Jake brown up.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
And down the field of the Jacksonville Jaguars. I don't
know that.
Speaker 4 (18:10):
Browning beat her Jags.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
No, no, no, Jake Browning has always beat the Jags
anytime he's ever played them. Like, I don't know what
it is about Jake Browning being the Jaguars kryptonite. The
one thing you guys have got to learn about me
quickly is that I'm a realist about the Jacksonville Jaguars.
I have them winning nine games this year. I am
not one of these super fan girls that is unrealistic
about the team. They've hurt me for far too long,
for far too many years. I know where to keep
(18:32):
them so that they cannot hurt me anymore. I know
that Jake Browning is their kryptonite. X y Z. I
just truly and deeply believe that the Vikings have a
better offensive line. They're gonna give Carson Wentz more time
to throw the ball. Jamar Chase has not looked like
himself through the first couple of weeks of the season
as far as what he's actually capable of doing.
Speaker 3 (18:51):
And I like the Vikings defense better.
Speaker 4 (18:54):
Well, I'll say I don't mind. I don't mind the
looking at the Viks especially two and a half three,
because here's how I look at it like going into
that game, Going into the Sunday night game, I had
the Vikings as like a one point favorite over the
Bengals at home, and the Vikings have one of the
(19:15):
best home field advantages in the NFL. But the Vikings
look horrendous and they got dominated. Downgraded. The Vikings basically
now would have made that game a pick close to
a pick at full strength, So I would have had
I think bro is worth like five points now, but
Browning has been pretty good when he's played, so you
(19:36):
could tell me that it's four and I would buy that.
But so, all right, so let's adjust the spread out
of four four and a half. But then McCarthy is out.
Here's my thing is McCarthy is Wentz worse than McCarthy.
I don't know, maybe not.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
I don't think we know. I don't think we know
what the gas between McCarthy.
Speaker 4 (20:00):
We don't know what I'm saying, like there's a chance
that Wentz is better like McCarthy's body of work. No,
granted he had offensive line injuries, but it was seven
of eight quarters were horrendous. I mean, his his pressure
to sack ratio is the worst in the league. He's
on he was on pace to break David Carr's unbreakable
sack single season in sack record of seventy six. He's
(20:23):
on pace I think for seven. He's on pace for
seventy six and a half. But obvious he's gonna miss
time so probably won't break it. But he only get
he only could throw it to one side of the field.
He was super inaccurate. Like it was bad. He had
one quarter and by the way, the Bears did you
see with the lines into them without their corners. He
was playing the Bears without their corners. Aj Terrell missed
(20:43):
the second half their only lockdown corners, so they hadn't
like play more. They still couldn't move the ball. So
but I will say you the injuries for the Vikings
are worth watching. That's like, what's gonna make or break
this for me? You have Garrisol their left tackle. They
need him back Kelly, their center went out, even their
backup left tackle went out. Like their offensive line was
(21:05):
a disaster. And then on the defensive side, they've already
lost Cashman Van Yinkle missed last week, Harrison Smith missed
last week, Akuda missed last week. So there's a lot
of key injuries. But if they're healthier on the defensive
side and on the offensive line, I can get behind
the Vikings at three or better because I McCarthy might
just be bad.
Speaker 3 (21:25):
Now I think he is.
Speaker 4 (21:27):
Maybe he's two games, just just two games, but what
we have so far, just the sample, that game against
Atlanta from an EPA per play perspective, was worse than
Jaron Hall against the Packers like two years ago. For
the Vikings, who came in, threw a pick that led
to points, fumbled led to points, they got blown out,
(21:49):
and he got benched. That that game was so bad,
that was the one of the words. And I don't
think I think that O'Connell knows it. Like they weren't
being aggressive. He punted on that fourth and one basically
like surrender punt. So yeah, there might just not be
a drop off from McCarthy to Wentz. But I gotta
(22:10):
monitor some of these injuries because if their defense is healthy,
they're gonna bring pressure, and that Bengals offensive line is
not gonna be able to hold up. Then Brown is
probably gonna make a couple of mistakes.
Speaker 3 (22:21):
He's made so many mistakes this weekend.
Speaker 4 (22:23):
Yeah, but I mean he's not the worst backup. He's
pretty serious, but he's done well.
Speaker 1 (22:28):
But he'd be like to Minnesota, the top five backup.
Speaker 4 (22:31):
Yeah, but in Minnesota, if that defense is healthy, there's
probably gonna be some key mistakes. But interesting game two backups.
It's not a game I don't think anyone is really
gonna love. But that's the key to it. How much
do you think of a drop off? Number one is
Burrow to Browning, Like some people have seen that, I
(22:51):
respect say it's like three and a half points three
three and a half. I think it's more than that.
And how much of a drop off from from McCarthy
to Wentz, Like someone could say it's two points, someone
could say it's nothing, someone could say McCarthy's so bad
that it's an.
Speaker 3 (23:10):
Improvement, like s I'm in that camp.
Speaker 4 (23:13):
So that's that's like where this is gonna come down to.
And then Obviously, the line's at three, and whatever the
market thinks is what those margins is probably going to
decide whether this closes three and a half, four or
three two and a half.
Speaker 1 (23:29):
I think the Bengals, you kick that up to plus nine.
I think that's a great teaser leg just with how
ugly this game is likely to be. The totals really
low forty one, and like I think we've laid it
out nicely here, there's a lot of unknown with how
(23:49):
these quarterbacks, how much we should be adjusting these lines
based on the drop off of these quarterbacks. The Bengals
are also they were fifty or they are now fifty
to one to win the Super Bowl. I don't know
anybody that's trying to place that bet right now. They
opened at twenty to one, they're two and oh yet
plus nine point fifty to win the Division. One other
quarterback injury. I want to get to. Jayden Daniels is
(24:10):
day to day with the knee injury. The Commanders get
the Raiders on Sunday. The line went from the Commanders
minus six and a half, that was the line that
opened up before the game's wrapped up on Sunday, to
the Commander's minus three and a half, So it seems
like there is some market sentiment that he might miss
this one that would explain that drastic of a line move.
Anyone willing to take the plunge on a Mariota revenge game?
(24:33):
And how about this, before you scream no into the microphone,
Mariota is two and oh straight up. The last two
times he had to take the majority of snaps at quarterback,
both last season, both with the Commanders.
Speaker 4 (24:46):
I get catch you got anything?
Speaker 2 (24:48):
No, I don't think I want anything to do with
this game. To be honest, I'd probably lean the Raiders
to cover the number, but I just it's too yucky
for me.
Speaker 3 (24:59):
I can't get there.
Speaker 4 (25:00):
It's a it's a tough spot for the Raiders, just
on the surface. Right, divisional game Monday night, they were
in New England and they came across the country. Now
there to kind of come across the country again, Washington
is going to be much more well rested, right they're
coming they have They played on Thursday night, the Raiders
played on Monday night. Now coming back across the country.
(25:22):
So not ideal in that sense. I don't know on
Daniels like because last year he was he was supposed
to miss time, but he ended up playing right, remember
with his the rib injury, so I could see him
giving it a go, and with the with the way
the Raiders play the play defense just trying to prevent
the explosive play like Daniels could end up picking them apart,
(25:45):
even if he isn't as mobile. But Mariota's fine as
a backup, and he did well last year when he
came in. You know, obviously it's a drop off there still,
but uh, that's when we're going to have to monitor.
But yeah, they're the market's basically saying like we think
he's gonna miss, but not fully. So it's kind of
like in wait and see mode, so we'll see. I
(26:08):
have just a gut feeling that he's gonna play. But
circling back to Bengals Vikings, I don't mind your thought
process on the tees with the low total going across
up above a touchdown, but I will say I don't
generally like the teas games with we just talked about
how much so much uncertainty, so we just because of
that uncertainty, it kind of devalues a teaser a bit.
(26:30):
So like I like when I know, okay, I got
two bad quarterbacks, it's gonna be low scoring and there's
more certainty, where as opposed to this game where it's like,
well I don't know the drop off or I don't
know the injuries, I don't know how bad McCarthy is,
blah blah blah. So that will be my only hesitation there.
But Raiders Washington bad spot for the Raiders. But obviously
(26:54):
the injury is the big thing there. So I got
nothing there.
Speaker 1 (27:00):
Now.
Speaker 4 (27:00):
I will say if you got plus six and a
half is a good bet. But I've done that. I've
done that so many times, get ahead of quarterback injury
news and then the backup will come in and they'll
win by ten. But I have gotten there.
Speaker 2 (27:10):
I also kind of had the same idea that you did,
and thank god I didn't get to the window on it.
But I was thinking in the Patriots Dolphins game last
week and I was like, Okay, two bad quarterbacks, maybe
this could be an under scenario, and they just went.
Speaker 3 (27:22):
It was the first time the Patriots put up more
than thirty points in like three or four years.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
I just I think that that might have gotten me
off of betting a total like this also, I wanted
to circle back to this. I got schooled in my
own betting strategy the other day about the Vikings game
and new dads.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
I forgot that the key part of this.
Speaker 2 (27:41):
And one of the girls that like religiously listens to
my shows DMed me and said that I fucked up
because I am religious about only betting on new girl
dads and not boy dads. I didn't know JJ McCarthy
had a boy, but it has always been the girl
dad's strategy.
Speaker 4 (27:56):
You're going to keep filtering this every time something happens.
So it's only girl.
Speaker 3 (28:00):
I'm seeing this on now. Girl Dad's only girl Dad's.
Speaker 1 (28:05):
Girls that girls with names that start with the letter M.
You know, we just we'll continue to see. We just
need this tract, Evan, if you could get on this,
we want that in the primer.
Speaker 2 (28:15):
I'll take I'll take Owen one for now, but as
we know, moving forward, it's only girls.
Speaker 1 (28:20):
I don't even I think maybe the thing to add
to the as a caveat to this is that JJ
McCarthy's like twelve years old, and maybe that's the reason,
you know, he doesn't have like, he doesn't have real
like dad energy. You know, JJ McCarthy looks like he's
still sophomore in college.
Speaker 3 (28:36):
He's a child having a child exactly.
Speaker 1 (28:38):
So I feel like that that I can throw that
one out for that reason. This is something I wanted
to update folks on and maybe we'll do this on
Tuesdays shows moving forward. If people like it enough, who's
printing money for us? Who we need to be a
little bit weary about. It's too early to really gleam
anything legitimate from this, but I like to look at
this throughout the course of the season. Evan, feel free
(28:59):
to pop in the chat and verify any of these
if I misspeak. In terms of these numbers against the
spread standings, there are seven teams right now that are
two and zero against the closing number, Green Bay, Tampa, Indianapolis,
the La rams La Chargers, Buffalo Bills, San Francisco forty
nine ers. Do any of those stand out as I
(29:21):
want to fade them so quickly at the soonest opportunity,
I guess is the best way to ask this, because
you can't go undefeated against the spread.
Speaker 4 (29:28):
Well, Number one, you don't overreact generally. Week three, you know,
for for example, I'll win two against the spread underdogs
in week three or since two thousand and three, or
seventy two to fifty one and one against the spread,
about fifty eight and a half percent. That would apply
this week to the Dolphins, Saints, Texans, and Broncos. But
one of the teams I might want to face, I
think they might have been up I upgraded the Colts
(29:50):
a lot. The problem is it requires me to beout
the Titans, which I'll probably do anyway, so great.
Speaker 1 (29:55):
I wish they were playing anyone but the Titans. I
would be in on the other team this week. I
just hear it. I can't get it.
Speaker 4 (30:01):
Here's where like the Colts, I think they've I make
that two and a half, it's three and a half,
which means I probably have to take it. But I'll
just give you a crazy stat which illustrates, like, hey,
you don't want to overreact to small sample sizes and
what you just saw too much, so in weeks two
through five, so early in the season, when you might
(30:24):
end up overreacting to to a team winning as an underdog,
so a home underdog that one outright, which was the
Colts last week. That then when that goat then goes
on the road and is a favorite since two thousand
and three. Those teams are seventeen thirty nine and one
(30:49):
against the spread thirty percent, failing to cover by about
six points per game when they're fair by more than
a field goal six and sixteen against the spread when
that team that they're playing has a losing record eleven
twenty nine and one against the spread twenty seven and
a half percent. I will say on that game, So
it will be the Colts for me. The Titans last week.
(31:11):
I mean, the Titans were right there with the Ms
in the fourth quarter. What ended up happening, what ended
up burning them. There was a fumble like it was
like a three point game in the fourth quarter, and
then cam Wood got stripsacked and then the game was
over at his own twenty. But they didn't have sweat
in the interior defensive line, and that ended up being
huge because they were doubling Simmons and he wore down
(31:33):
and he had nothing left in the fourth quarter, and
they didn't have Latham. His backup was horrendous. And then
they lost Zeitler, one of the better guards in the country.
He went out and then their offensive line fell apart.
So I need to see that. They need to get
Zeitler and laith them back, and then they need Sweat
on the defensive line because then you just double Simmons.
(31:54):
If you have sweat and Simmons, you can't double one
or the other, and then they're in tier. Defense of
line becomes scary. So it might be the Titans for me,
like that just home dog won't win, go on the
road in a divisional game now favored by over a field goal.
I think it's a little too much, So that would
be the one for me.
Speaker 2 (32:16):
MAYA first thought was to look at it's crazy that
you're asking me this question. As I scroll through the schedule,
it's like, Okay, the Bucks are playing the Jets, the
Colts are playing the tight Ends, the forty nine ers
are playing the Cardinals, because those would have been my
first kind of thoughts of places to look, especially because.
Speaker 3 (32:34):
The forty nine ers are playing Mac Jones. But he
bawled out last week.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
I think we should probably stop talking shit about him
because it worked. But like I just I don't think
any of these teams this week or in a place
where I want to fade them. But it wouldn't be
the Colds for me. The spread's not big enough for
the forty nine ers.
Speaker 3 (32:51):
Is Biger hurt? Do we think?
Speaker 2 (32:53):
Because it might be the bucks for me if he
actually is just one of these guys where if he
gets injured and people are talking shit to him, then
he comes up and performs like nothing we've ever seen,
which I do think might be the case, but it
might be the I think that the best maybe value
on the.
Speaker 3 (33:07):
Board, if that's what you're looking for, is got to
be the box.
Speaker 4 (33:11):
Yeah, the Jets are Jets.
Speaker 1 (33:13):
Why you start Tyrod Taylor too? That's another quarterback injury
we didn't miss.
Speaker 4 (33:17):
Yeah, but that is that much of Is that a
drop off from Fields? I don't like we saw like
we kind of know Fields is bad. I bought him.
Speaker 1 (33:25):
I think Tyrod Taylor is justin fields, but with he
doesn't he's just not as successful a runner at least
justin fields.
Speaker 4 (33:32):
Has that in his fields, will make mistakes like Taylor
never makes mistakes. So that's a good thing that you
want with an underdog like not to win the game,
but they're like stay in it and cover seven with
a low total like Tyre Taylor was like top five
all time among qualified quarterbacks and the interception rate, so
he's not gonna make mistakes. He can run the offense.
So yeah, I mean I faded the Bucks the first
(33:54):
two weeks. I probably would again, but.
Speaker 1 (33:59):
They won Week one.
Speaker 4 (34:00):
They should have lost week too. They usially lost it.
They could easily be going to and this would be
a much different discussion. And you have to keep in
mind they're banged up, so their receivers are still all
banged up. And you got to saus Gardner too for
Mike Evans. Their offensive line is a mess. So it
might be the what's that?
Speaker 3 (34:23):
I think it might be the Bucks.
Speaker 4 (34:24):
They lost their rights, they lost get a key, they
already were without worfs, So yeah, the Bucks don't seem
like a team that is as of right now, is
built to really win by margin. They're kind of eking
out these games and they're getting a lot of breaks,
like they got another drop pick yesterday, a fumble that
didn't get recovered. Although they're special teams were they were
(34:45):
a bit unlucky, but the refs helped them out a
bunch early. So yeah, the Jets, that line is probably
gonna go up when Tyrod Taylor, Yeah, probably did.
Speaker 3 (34:54):
It's a touchdown, right, now.
Speaker 4 (34:56):
Seven yeah and a half, which I wouldn't like, but
it's even seven and a half.
Speaker 3 (35:02):
I think I get there.
Speaker 1 (35:04):
The juice on the game is telling a story that
early money's coming in on Tampa. The I bought it
at minus one oh five on Sunday after the Justin
Fields injury. It's now sitting at minus one fifteen in
most places. So it's probably going to get to seven
and a half, especially with the Taylor news and yeah, man,
at that point, especially if it kicks any higher. Tyrod
(35:27):
Taylor is in my opinion, a downgrade from Justin Fields,
even though Fields had a one point one quarterback rating
last week. But it's not that drastic. In terms of
the luck rankings, those are out there Action Network dot Com.
Keep updated with that. After Week one, the Tampa Bay
Buccaneers were number one. I imagine that the latest luck
ranking is going to have them right towards the top
of the list as well, So keep that in mind.
(35:48):
Yeah exactly. As far as the seven teams yet to
cover a spread Pittsburgh, Chicago, Houston, Denver, Kansas City, Miami,
and New Orleans, and maybe one of those teams pops
up as we play our flag it is time to
go around the horn here one game that you are
pot committed on. Here on Tuesday will lay out our
official picks. We'll do our three Musketeers, all for one,
(36:13):
one for all, and all for one Farlay on Thursday.
But right now, one pick that's already in the back pocket, Kendra,
what you got.
Speaker 3 (36:21):
I already put it down.
Speaker 2 (36:22):
My entire existence this year is just going to be
fading the Patriots. This is going to be three weeks
in a row.
Speaker 3 (36:28):
I'm one in one, but I'm going.
Speaker 2 (36:29):
To fade the Patriots this week against the Steelers, Mike
tom And I believe is five hundred in his career
against the Patriots obviously did not do so hot against
Bill Belichick.
Speaker 3 (36:37):
I want to say he was.
Speaker 2 (36:38):
Three and eight against Bill Belichick. Evan, please feel free
to check that. I believe that that is what I
wrote down in my notes, which I accidentally closed. But
I had just once again coaching thing. Their defense is
a lot better, Drake May is not impressing me. The
Patriots defense and special teams looked like crap this week.
I think that they're going to have a lot of energy,
a lot of hype, but you could just be the Dolphins.
(37:00):
I think that they need a crash course back to reality,
and that's going to be the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.
Speaker 3 (37:06):
I get that they didn't look like a world beater.
Speaker 2 (37:07):
I didn't expect them to this season, but they're a
much better team on paper and on the field. I
don't see how people are on the Patriots this week.
Speaker 4 (37:15):
Sound sounds like Kendrick's going to try to fade the
Patriots every single week. We'll see what she brings on Thursday.
Do you have any update on Gonzales?
Speaker 2 (37:22):
So that was the thing that I was thinking about
last week, is so I think I told you guys
that on his Instagram story he was posting like a
bunch of cryptic stuff that sounded like he was going
to be back and going to be ready to play,
and then it came out later in the week. I
want to say, like Thursday Friday, that there was really
not a chance that he was going to play. So
I for me, it feels almost like they're holding him
(37:43):
out even though there is always has been that question
around his toughness as a player.
Speaker 3 (37:47):
We talked about on Sunday that that's potentially.
Speaker 2 (37:49):
Why he fell in the draft. I think that he
has to be back this week. You cannot nurse a
hamstring for two months. I'm sorry, you just you cannot
do that, especially when your team needs you. They dk
metcalfet Friarmooth like they've got weapons on this team. They
need Gonzalez back otherwise there's not even a ship shot
in hell that this is gonna happen.
Speaker 4 (38:08):
Yeah, two defenses that are struggle. I mean, the Steelers
defense looks horrendous, and their special teams looks bad too,
I mean Aleb Johnson. But the Steers are a bunch
of defensive injuries also that are are worth monitoring very
every I don't know what means, but.
Speaker 1 (38:27):
So defense is so bad as it is. I'm on
the Patriots this week.
Speaker 2 (38:31):
Can't go with you, I got now, but I'll go
got to break the tie, Stucky, you gotta do it.
Speaker 3 (38:38):
Pick a side.
Speaker 1 (38:39):
I will on.
Speaker 4 (38:39):
Thursday, I gotta. I gotta look into some injuries some more,
but I'll.
Speaker 1 (38:44):
We don't break ties on Tuesdays.
Speaker 4 (38:47):
I'm gonna come up with some head to heads like bets.
So like yet someone has to pay it off. What
you have to do, but I'm gonna. I'm I'm still
brainstorming on that to make make it a little fun.
But I'll play my flag on the Rams plus three
and a half. The Eagles right now can't beat anybody
by margin like they are now. Granted, part of this
(39:07):
is because the tush play. I mean they're twelve percent
of their plays were the tush push. Last week. They're
averaging four point three yards per play. And they played
the Cowboys defense, which gave up seven hundred points to
the Giants and who couldn't score against Washington. And then
they played the Chiefs defense, who got shredded by the
Chargers but had issues on the back end. They couldn't
(39:30):
take their play. Calll is so bad. If Goddard's out again,
like it's it's a mess. They can't throw it. How
is his Eagles team getting margin to anyone? It's like
they're worse than last year. The Rams almost beat them
in Philly in the playoffs. It was a dead even
game statistically, and the Rams had two turnovers and didn't
convert on two four downs. Rams are playing really well.
(39:51):
They've obviously had this game circled. McVeigh does really well
on these East Coast trips. He is and by way
phase eighteen eleven and two against the spread of the
dog of three plus fourteen to seven and one against
the spread in the Eastern time zone, covering by five
points per game, so it's covering two out of three
sixty seven percent. I think the reps gonna be right
there that this Eagles team just can't get margin than anyone.
Their defense is in as good, play calling is so bad,
(40:13):
and there's I don't know if Brown is hurt, if
they're stuck in the mud, but I'm sure they'll end
up winning by like three because I mean, think about
last week. They easily lose that game. If Kelsey catches
a free touchdown, that play was worth negative seven and
a half points free touchdown into an interception. They also
were gifted three when the Chiefs couldn't get one yard
(40:35):
they made a fifty yard They easily could have lost
that game. We've had a different conversation about how bad
their offense is, but because they're two to zero, no
one's really talking about it. I think anything over three
you have to take here. This Eagles offense is a
mess right now. They just there. They have two completions
over twelve yards all year, and they play and on
one of the gains of the Cowboys. I think Russ
(40:55):
had like seventeen in one game against the Cowboys defense.
So yeah, I'm taking the Rams plus three and a half.
I think that game probably goes down to the wire
and a little. I just have a sneaky suspicion. McVeigh
inquired with the league office today about the tush bush.
He was one that was against it. He was like,
(41:18):
you used to be on the rules committee. I have
a sneaky fision. You're gonna see fall starts or off
sides on the offense called this week when they do
it all this, yeah about it and how they I
mean the Eagles went off sides on them, like they
fall started like on three of them last week. Oh yeah,
so and they lined up illegal. You're gonna get flags
on that play. And that is so big, Like you
(41:39):
just get a flag on one of those plays, Like
if you just take the Eagles from fourth and one
or to fourth and six, well that's a punt or
third to one to third and six, well then they
actually have to throw it downfield. That is huge for
the entire game. So if there's like a couple of
flags on those plays, just watch out for that. I
like the Rams plus three and a half.
Speaker 1 (41:59):
H I like that pick Bears minus one is my
plant the flag pick off a blowout loss, taking on
a Cowboys team off of five quarters of football. They
almost played until the bone on that one. Chicago at
home the last five seasons have been nearly three points
better in terms of their home and road splits. That
ranks top ten in the NFL over that time. Early
(42:21):
action also tilting in that direction. I already grabbed the
minus one zho five on them minus one. We're seeing
that line tick up to minus one and a half
in some places. But I like Chicago in the bounce back.
And now for the main event. No betting week can
be complete without it, or can you even start without it?
The primer courtesy of Evan Abrams. Evan, welcome to the show.
(42:45):
What are we looking at this week as far as
our primer stats that we need to know before we
place these bets.
Speaker 5 (42:53):
What's going on everybody? I mean, it's just impossible not
to talk about favorites at the moment. I too this
out there. They don't lose anymore, It's insane. I just
these numbers feel fake. It's video game like, but right now,
closing favorites four points or more twelve and oh straight
up this year, there's sixty four and seven ninety percent
Since Week thirteen of last season in that same league
(43:16):
I love in that listen, in that same span, favorites
is six plus points, forty seven and four. Again, all
fields just very dumb at this point, and even last night,
so Chargers went on the road. Road favorites ninety and
thirty two just since the start of last season, So
even road chalk, I think the home field advantage thing stuck.
(43:38):
You were talking about it with Minnesota kind of having
one of the best in the NFL. Aside from that, like,
I just think road favorites are becoming more valuable and
probably just price just the same other things. I'll be
looking at this week. Backup quarterback, So I have a
database myself with every backup quarterback over the last like
fifteen years, so I want to dig a little bit
into this many backups as early in the season. I'll
(44:01):
say this in terms of our data. So you guys
are talking about Pittsburgh and the Patriots right now. The
Patriots are the biggest public side on Tuesday morning, ninety
one percent of tickets, so nobody wants to bet the
zero to two ats Steelers getting nine percent right now
as a road favorite, which also isn't great for Tomlin.
(44:21):
I'll say this as well. Teams with sixty percent of
tickets are more two and thirteen against the spread according
to our data this year. So the real chalk getting
absolutely hammered. I mean, there's a lot of stuff, but
there's a great Monday night football game. And I'll leave
you with this. John Harbaugh twenty three and four straight
(44:43):
up at home and night games with the Ravens. Stuck
knows this even early in the season, nineteen and one
in that spot. So pretty tough one for Detroit. I
think the spread five and a half six for a reason,
and Detroit off of a big win, that's going to
be a lot of tickets on that game.
Speaker 4 (44:59):
Yeah, I will Ravens one thing you want to watch.
Likely does he come back, But more importantly, it looks
like Van Neyt's probably gonna be out. Humphrey is key.
You need him in the slot, especially against Detroit. Jaya
Alexander is he gonna be back, But the Humphrey's out,
like in their corner. Depth is not great right now,
but he's so key to that defense. If he's in,
(45:21):
I think Ravens went by seven plus. If he's not,
gets a little diceier, But the Ravens are gonna score.
Probably I will against Detroit. I will also go back
to your Bears point one. I almost always play this
team after a team after losing by thirty points the
week before. If you go back to two thousand and three,
(45:41):
after a loss of thirty plus, teams are one forty
nine ten against the spread, outs over fifty five percent
when they're an underdog or favored by less than three
sixty percent against the spread. And Johnson owns eebra flus.
My only concern is the Bears. The Bears defensive injuries,
Like it looks like Jalen Johnson's going to miss the year,
(46:02):
which is huge. They're all pro corner Kyler Gordon. I
think he's probably gonna be out again throughout the really
good corner. So their corner room is horrendous right now.
So like, how are they stopping Dak and those receivers.
I don't know. I really don't know, because it's not
like they can get a ton of pressure. So I'm
trying to decide if I want to bet the Bears
or if I just want to bet the Bears team
(46:23):
total over like twenty five or whatever it's going to be.
But I don't mind your Bears. Look there after an
embarrassing loss and the Cowboys who should have lost to
the Giants. The other thing that worries me, though, is
the kick. We have the new kickoff rules. This is
the biggest kicker mismatch in NFL history. You got a
kicker who could make it from seventy and then you
(46:43):
got Santo's who is his like range? Is his max
range is like forty two?
Speaker 1 (46:49):
So need the Windy City to show up in this one?
Speaker 2 (46:52):
Well, put some respect on Cam Little, the only man
to kick a seventy yarder.
Speaker 4 (46:58):
Well it's not not officially, sorry, oh my god, not officially.
Speaker 1 (47:03):
Evan, before we cut you loose. By the time we
get most people listen to the Thursday episode, they will
over either already made up their minds for Bills Dolphins,
or we'll be past that point. Is there anything for
Thursday Night, whether it's big double digit favorites on Thursdays,
the Bills at home, the Bills at home against Miami,
Is there anything you've looked at as far as that
(47:25):
matchup goes.
Speaker 5 (47:26):
I mean, I guess if you want to take Miami
the one end, so you can look at as the
fact that Dogs are six and two in night games
this year, so it's a decent start. But anything you
look at when it comes to two against Buffalo is
just gross. It's let's see Miami two and thirteen straight
up versus Josh Allen win eight straight up in Buffalo
one and eight with TUA, and then the two a
(47:49):
stat that really scares me and probably scares most people.
Two and thirteen straight up four ten and one against
the spread away from home versus winning teams in his career,
and I believe he's lost ten great in that spot.
So just a real, real, real bad one.
Speaker 4 (48:04):
But the only thing I'll add though, is that it's
the spread is twelve and a half correct, Like this
is different than now, is worse than.
Speaker 5 (48:12):
You second second biggest of his career he was plus
fifteen against Buffalo in twenty one, so yeah, this number
is massive, So.
Speaker 4 (48:19):
Yeah, this is it's a huge number. Like if you
look back, I think the biggest like McDermott is zero
to three against the spread against the Dolphins when he's
favored by more than a field goal, and he's never
been favored by more than seven. Last year in this
game in Buffalo in November, and Miami was not good.
(48:39):
The Bills closed six and a half, they won by three,
and they probably should have lost. So this is a
big adjustment. But Miami's obviously way worse. You got to
decide how much worse. I mean, I make this like
ten point seven. The other thing is, I mean they're
offensive line semester's injuries. Their secondary is the mess. The
Bills have injuries too that are worth watching, like Toron Johnson,
Milano Oliver like those are three of their best defenders,
(49:02):
so it's worth watching there. But and I will say
I having divisional double digit divisional dogs are usually a
good bet I think over the last forty years or
like fifty five percent. But you gotta bet the Dolphins
have a ton of injuries too. But you gotta bet this.
This Miami team, I mean, this Miami team is it.
Did you see the operation in the last minute against
(49:25):
the Patriots. They went first and ten at the forty
to go to win the game, They got a delay
of game and then they got a. I think they
got another delay of game and then.
Speaker 3 (49:37):
There's gonna twist a knife on me right now.
Speaker 4 (49:39):
Didn't they have two delay of games in a row.
Speaker 3 (49:42):
It was, you're just what you can you know what?
You want to pull the knife out of my back
right now? Please, thank you.
Speaker 4 (49:47):
It was and then they had to rush to play
the next play. Some you gotta go back and watch it.
Speaker 5 (49:53):
It was.
Speaker 3 (49:55):
It was I'm gonna do after this. I'm gonna go
rewatch the Patriots.
Speaker 1 (49:58):
Yeah, yeah, and then and then it takes the sack
and boom boom goes to the dynamite and the like.
Speaker 4 (50:04):
Think about this. It's first and ten and at the
New England forty four the minute fifteen, and they completed
for eighteen yards first and ten at the twenty six
minute nine. You're in perfect position to win this game, sorry, Kendrew.
Delay of game, uh, first and fifteen. Delayed game again,
(50:25):
first and twenty and then they they have to they
rush the snap with like one second. Everyone was confused
three plays in a row, and then you get sacked
and then sacked.
Speaker 3 (50:36):
And I was sitting at the bar trying to drink
my pickled beer.
Speaker 2 (50:39):
In peace with a bunch of Patriots fans feeling really good,
and then you know.
Speaker 4 (50:46):
The thing, keep paying eventually get one.
Speaker 2 (50:49):
I got, I got the Raiders. What I faded the Patriots?
Week one one with the Raiders plus one thirty one?
Speaker 4 (50:57):
Oh gotcha? Okay, last week one?
Speaker 3 (50:59):
Yeah, exactly last week. I should have won last week
And now you know what, I'm rocking with my Ayahuasca
King and Mike Tomlin.
Speaker 4 (51:08):
Are you committed to doing this all eighteen already?
Speaker 3 (51:10):
I already did it. It's already tracked in the action app.
We're good to go.
Speaker 4 (51:14):
No, I'm saying, are you committed to doing this every week?
You're gonna fait the Patriots.
Speaker 2 (51:18):
Give me until week's live to make a decision. But
for the most part, they ruined my life in twenty seventeen,
so probably.
Speaker 4 (51:25):
Oh you know what. Next week the Patriots host your Panthers.
Speaker 3 (51:32):
My sadcuts are back.
Speaker 4 (51:34):
I will say no Panthers, the injury news, Hunt and
Corbett they're starting too.
Speaker 3 (51:40):
Yeah, I'm already on the Panthers.
Speaker 4 (51:42):
Not good. Yeah, that's gonna be your biggest bet of
the year. Panthers at Patriots.
Speaker 3 (51:47):
Yeah. I love the few words.
Speaker 1 (51:51):
Evan, Thank you, you're a gentleman and a scholar, and
that'll do it for today's episode special thanks to our
producers Matt Mitchell, the Icon and Gifford Gould on video.
The Favorites will return on Thursday right here on the
Action Network YouTube page when we talk Week three bets
and we get our official parlay in there. Good luck
with all your bets. We'll see you next time right
(52:12):
here on the Favorites. Cash these tickets cheers.
Speaker 3 (52:20):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Welcome to the Favorites podcast, part of the Action Network.
Your Favorite Trio is back. I'm your host, Brandon Kravitz,
joined by the wonderfully insightful and talented Stucky and Kendrick Middleton.
On today's episode, We've got our plant the flag, game
of the week for week three, some picks that have
us in a pickle, and of course the main event
(00:31):
evans Tuesday Primer guys, sort of a weird week for me.
Tomorrow night, I'm headed to the Sleep Token concert. I
don't know if you've ever heard of this band. I
sent a picture of the lead singer in our group
chat slightly frightening. It's members in the band remain anonymous
because they all wear masks, so you can kind of
(00:52):
get an idea, like think old school wrestling. Demolition is
kind of what I'm going to here any words of them,
because I feel like a complete fish out of water,
like Irock Khaki's on a regular basis, I feel like
I don't fit it.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
Square black that would be, I think the best thing
you can do. I know that you have a pair
of black pants, I know you have a black T shirt.
Speaker 3 (01:13):
Just wear black.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
I went to see Red Hot Chili Peppers or in
Atlanta a couple of years ago and they had some
like K pop scream o band come out and apparently
they're huge, and I had no idea and half of
the crowd was there to see them, and it was
the It was like little girls screaming with like heavy
metal in the back. Oh, there's some One of their
songs is like something chocolate. I know somebody who's gonna
(01:35):
watch this on YouTube is gonna know exactly what I'm
talking about.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
I'm gonna have to send it to you guys later.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
But I'm sitting there just watching their opener and these
little girls come out in these scary like death metal
costumes and just start screaming. And it was the weirdest
experience I've ever felt in my life. I was not
dressed in enough black just when end out black it out?
Speaker 1 (01:54):
All right? No eyeliner, skip the eyeliner, just go or
like should I go football EyeBlack under.
Speaker 3 (01:59):
The Derek Carr.
Speaker 4 (02:01):
Yes, I have no advice. I haven't been to a
concert since college sports. From my life, I have not. Literally,
I think the last concert I went to was so
I went to school in DC. I honestly think it
was like Kanye West came for some college fest thing
(02:22):
and that was the last concert.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
Wow, you get to see him before he went absolutely bananas.
Speaker 4 (02:27):
Yeah, it was like college dropout albums. So yeah, that
was when.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
That's a vibrant See that's and that's my style. Like
I'm more of a catch a Kanye in his prime.
Maybe some Bruno mars. I'm going, I don't know how
my wife got into this group, but you know, she's
she's much more hardcore than I am. And I'm just
going to be a supportive husband. But I got to
get into it. Otherwise I'm gonna be that I'll be
the you know, the Jewish husband that's like, all right,
(02:53):
when's this thing gonna end? So I at least you
want to I at least want to do my part.
I just I don't know what I'm getting myself into.
A Yeah, well, like you know, like hip hop pop,
that's usually more my vibe.
Speaker 3 (03:06):
Isn't he in trouble for gambling?
Speaker 5 (03:08):
Oh?
Speaker 1 (03:09):
This is our kind of guy. We should get Bruno
on the on the Favorites podcast.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
I think he owes Vegas like a million dollars or something,
so he has to like perform his way out of it.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Oait, Yeah, I that's why I'm hosting this podcast. Also,
it's well behind the scenes for all of you.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
No, it's remember I did read that that.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
He I'm reading allegedly is the is the proper phrasing
on Bruno and his gambling exploits.
Speaker 4 (03:35):
From anywhere from seven million to fifty million.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
That's a big number.
Speaker 1 (03:41):
You got really suck at this. That's like some Drake
stats right.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
There, the guy who screwed the Jaguars over on FanDuel
or whatever.
Speaker 4 (03:50):
I gotta look at it this more. We'll put you
on the spot. What if i'd put you if I
dropped you on a stage? What what?
Speaker 5 (03:59):
What?
Speaker 4 (04:01):
And you you had to do something? It was a
talent show and I just dropped you there and there
was one hundred thousand people in the crowd. What would
your talent pay? Do you have any talent?
Speaker 1 (04:10):
So I did a talent show when I was in
high school. This is one of the most embarrassing stories
I can tell. I have a hoodie on right now
so I can actually reenact this. My headphones are on,
but I don't have any talents. This is about what
we're doing right now. Is about the extent of what
I would consider talent for me. So I was helping
someone out in high school that put on a talent
(04:30):
show and they said, I need more participants, will you
do something? And so I was pretty big into working
out at the time, so I said, I'll do a
hundred push ups. So that was gonna be my talent.
And I came out to Eminem's Lose Yourself with a
zip up hoodie on. I unzip the hoodie, I throw
the jacket off. We're going like Chippendale style, and I
(04:53):
stopped hard at seventy four. It was very embarrassing. Did
you go to a hundred? I don't know if anybody else,
but I definitely just sort of collapsed onto the stage.
So I'm I'm definitely afraid of talent shows now. So
I'm a little bit nervous even just answering that.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
I think I would probably this sounds really weird and
it's not really a talent. But I can crack a
lot of really random bones in my body, like repeatedly,
Like I can pop my hips repeatedly, my back repeatedly,
my fingers, like I can do all of that, So
that might be my talent is I can just crack
weird bones in my body. I can't think of anything else.
I'm actually a talentless loser.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
I think that's how we all got into this stucky
What about you?
Speaker 4 (05:35):
I mean, I've done, I've done, I do karaoke, and
I do like, how will I know about Whitney Houston?
Speaker 1 (05:42):
But you go Whitney Houston? This bold, my friend, You'd be.
Speaker 4 (05:48):
Sports I mean, my only talents are like sports trivia.
I can if you in twenty minutes, I can name
every country and capital of the world A one hundred
and nineties.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
No, that's phenom. That's really I.
Speaker 4 (06:00):
Would be like super boring, like sitting up there for
twenty minutes naming every capital and country.
Speaker 1 (06:05):
Now, could you imagine us standing on a stage as
the Favorites trio doing all three of these things like
I'm trying to crank out one hundred push ups unsuccessfully
and stuck. He's trying to name capitals around the world,
and Kendri just just over here kracking knuckles. That would
be I think if we did that as a triumvirent,
we'd actually have some that'd be unique. You could get
us on America's got talent.
Speaker 4 (06:26):
That is my bar play whatever. I'm at a bar,
and I'll just bet people all the time that I
can name every world capital and people will just start
They'll never they never believe that I can in able
to start firing countries. And then I've done this talland.
Speaker 1 (06:40):
How did that start?
Speaker 4 (06:42):
Ah? I just wanted to learn it one debt one time.
I like learning random things. It was useful to qualify
for Jeopardy, Like if you know every world capital, you
can get soon you would. You're like you're a base
for like Jeopardy questions. Just when a country comes up,
(07:03):
you just learn like all that you learn, like certain cities.
And so I don't know, I'm weird, but yeah, I
don't really have any other talents. Like I can't juggle.
I can't even whistle, like I'm still this day. I
can't whistle. I can only do the just one. I
don't know how people like whistle a tune can't do that.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
I'm pretty good at rock paper Scissors? Does that count
me too?
Speaker 3 (07:26):
Because I know the cheat code? Do you know the
cheat code?
Speaker 4 (07:28):
Everyone thinks are good at rock? Paer, there's actually a formula.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
There's a formula of rock paper scissors. There actually is,
do you guys, Let's play.
Speaker 4 (07:36):
First, let's sick. I don't have a formula, let's play.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
Oh okay, I go rock papers. Wait, now we're backwards
not at the same time. We're gonna have to do
this in person because we're not at the same time
streaming leg Yeah, we we will do. There actually is
a formula. Do you guys know who Live Morgan is
in WWE?
Speaker 1 (07:55):
Hell? Yeah, we had.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
We did a rock paper scissors battle when I did
like their netfl thing here, and her and I both
knew the formula and it took twenty minutes for us
to get a winner out of it because we both
knew the formula of how to beat someone at rock
paper scitors.
Speaker 3 (08:09):
I have a video of it. It was actually so intense.
Speaker 1 (08:11):
I didn't know that there was a formula to it.
I just am just really good at reading minds when
it comes to those.
Speaker 2 (08:16):
There's actually a formula to beat someone in rock paper scissors.
But I can maybe do like some karate stuff. I
did martial arts for my entire childhood, so maybe whenever
I'm drunk, I like to like have people put cans
on stuff and I'll Roundhouse it, so maybe that would
be my talent.
Speaker 3 (08:29):
I don't know, I'm not very comented.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
Well that's better than cracking up.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
Yeah, I really am talentless, Like I have no artistic
ability zero. I can't I can draw it the sun,
and I can't sing, can't dance, So yeah, I might
just have to have people ask me questions stuff. So yeah,
I would lose the talent show.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
But anyway, Lisa, I just wanted to set I'm glad
that we were able to springboard into our talentless lives.
But I want to give you guys an update on
Thursday's episode as to how this the concerts tomorrow night.
So this today is more about my anxiety surrounding it,
and then Thursday. I can't wait. The one thing I'm
(09:13):
really excited about is the people watching is going to
be tremendous. So I'll give you guys the full breakdown
of all of that. But before we get to the sides,
let's get to our main dish of the day. Some
news across the league. Baker Mayfield leads the charge to
snatch a win on the road against Houston, a gutsy
fourth down conversion on their final drive, breaking Stucky's heart
(09:33):
sitting there with the Texans mine. It's two and a
half ticket and the Chargers absolutely dominated the Raiders. The
Raiders might just be a bad football team, Stucky. Outside
of the heartbreaking l you took ats any big takeaways
from last night?
Speaker 4 (09:47):
Yeah, I always say your NFL weeks are all about
how much fun you had, and just those like the
games are always gonna be tight, markets are efficient. How
how those like final minutes of get your bets come
down to? And yeah, that was one that was zero fun.
And it was two weeks in a row. I had
the Falcons against the Bucks last week, so I've had
Baker Mayfield go down and score a touchdown and back
(10:11):
to back week so I alsow the Ravens against the Bills,
which was fun, Chiefs against the I've had a bunch
of bad No, I've had no fun through two weeks,
so hopefully that changes. But yeah, that was brutal. I
mean the Bucks ran it better than the Texans. The
Texas play calling still left a lot to be desired.
I thought they were going to really take a step,
Like the goal at the second and goal at the one,
(10:32):
those three plays were really they were confusing like the rollout,
and but they can't run the ball. It's still some
offensive line issues. I don't think the play calling was
that improved from I mean a lot of a lot
of the things I saw were like is Bobby Slogs
still there? So yeah, it was a good win for
the Bucks. But they, I mean they got a bit fortunate. Again.
(10:57):
I mean even in the first quarter, you had their
touchdown came off of and illegal hands to the face
on a third and long, which was not a made
up call, and then there was a tripping that they
didn't call. So then that those two touchdowns, the other
touchdown drive they had to drop pick. That was the
only time they scored until the last minute. But that's
what Baker Mayfield does in the last minute. All the
Texans had to do is come with a just compose
(11:21):
yourself on your your blitz and they would to tell
fourth and ten. I think they had like an eighty
five percent win probability on that play, but credit to
the Bucks probably deserved to win. Texans had some special
teams play go other way. But yeah, it was an
impressive last minute drive by Mayfield and company. And yeah,
Broke mart I had the Texans two in a round robin.
(11:45):
To close that around robin, I bet the Texans money
line live. I had the Texans minus two and a
half and in my big survivor pools ones that like
hay out millions of dollars. I get risky earlier on
I used the Texans, So.
Speaker 1 (12:02):
H that's brutal.
Speaker 4 (12:05):
And then yeah, the Chargers just were completely dominant that
defense so well schemed and Mintor put chip Kelly in
a blender. It was impressed performance and like Greg Roman,
like this, he's letting Herbert let it fly. And that's
like I was. I was very fearful and thought that
(12:27):
the Chargers like they did that because it was the Chiefs.
It was game one and they were going to go
back to being their old conservative selves. But yeah, they
look really good and they're obvious. They're the favorites to
win that division for a reason.
Speaker 1 (12:39):
I like how they just casually mentioned that Tom Brady
is working with Chip Kelly on offense with the Raiders,
and then they go and score nine points. Gino has
three picks. Kendrick. If the Raiders were good, people would
be pissed, and they might be. They might be anyway,
you can tell me. I know that people in your
area of the country get all fired up about Tom Brady,
(13:00):
But is that a big deal or is that something
because the Raiders aren't very good, No one's going to
give a shit.
Speaker 3 (13:06):
I think that it is a big deal.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
Do I think that Tom Brady being involved in any way,
shape or form in the NFL is awesome? Yes, But
here's the thing, and so many of those pregame production meetings,
there's so much information given away about their schemes and
if guys are healthy and what their game plan is
and YadA YadA. So it's like, it's not a Tom
Brady issue. If I were Tom and I was allowed
to have, you know, like a five percent ownership and
(13:30):
a team and also be on the broadcast to make
almost forty million dollars a year, it's not a Tom
Brady problem. It's the fact that the league and Fox
are letting.
Speaker 3 (13:36):
Him do this.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
So do I think that it's a bad thing for
the league? Weirdly yes, But it's not a Tom issue.
At some point, somebody's got a step in and be like, Hey,
if you're going to be on the broadcast.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
We change the rules for you.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
You can't you can't have the headset on in the booth,
so I think that that's an issue. Do I think
it's the biggest issue that the Raiders are facing right now?
Speaker 3 (13:55):
No, obviously not.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
I I'm not sure if this game says but the
Raiders are bad or the Chargers or that really that
really that good. I'm just I'm kind of in the
middle of the Chargers being the best team in that division,
but also the Raiders not being as bad as this
game showed. Really, honestly, I think Gino Smith was just
throwing some terrible, fuck it balls inaccurate uugh, just terrible
(14:19):
at certain points in this game, and it just it
got boring quickly. I think mostly I put it on Gino,
to be honest, like the fact that you held the
Chargers to twenty points, I don't.
Speaker 3 (14:28):
I don't think that that's I don't.
Speaker 2 (14:29):
I think the Raiders are better than what we watched
last night. If you look at the box score, it's like, okay, yeah, whatever.
I'm not about a box score mouth breather watcher, So
that's not my vibe. I think that it's somewhere in
the middle of the Chargers being a top team right
now and the Raiders being a little bit better than
they were potentially climbing that ladder a little bit. They
(14:50):
didn't look good last night. I think people are looking
into it a little bit too much. The Tom Brady thing.
I think that there's definitely something there, but it's not
a Tom Brady issue.
Speaker 3 (14:57):
It's a league and a Fox Sports issue.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
As far as the Bucks Texans game goes, Baker Mayfield's
balls just do not fit in his pants. It's actually
so impressive, like absolutely beyond impressive. He I love the
kind of like character arc that his career has had.
But I think my biggest takeaway from everything last night
is that I hate the Monday night doubleheader.
Speaker 3 (15:20):
I hate it so much.
Speaker 4 (15:24):
Oh well, I also would say I don't mind it done.
Speaker 1 (15:27):
Less shitty one pm game. Give it to me every week.
They should do this every week, shave one off of
the one pm slate, throw it on Monday.
Speaker 4 (15:36):
No, it does maybe less productive because I gotta start
getting into I get into start just diving into the
week hard right after the last Monday Night game, so
when there's two that it's a couple hours later. But
I don't like when they're staggered Monday Night I've watched
football in multiple games all weekend. I'd like to just
have one and then if you're gonna get another one,
give it to me after. But look, kad gin know
(15:58):
it was just a He was inaccurate. But the Chargers
defense was amazing. Darwin James was amazing. There wasn't much separation,
but Gino was inaccurate, and usually that's one of his strengths,
especially indoors were usually thrives. So I think the Raiders
offense will be better. Bowers wasn't one hundred percent. They
were missing their right guard, so I think their offense
will be better. But that's another black eye on the
Patriots defense, who really needs Gonzales back, because look, they
(16:22):
at the score board didn't show it as far as points,
but they moved up and down the field Against the Patriots,
Gino threw for what three point fifty in that game
or something something along those lines, so they were moving
the ball will And then they couldn't move the ball
at all against the Chargers. And then we saw the Dolphins,
who their entire offensive line is depleted. They basically couldn't
(16:43):
score a point until garbage against the Colts, and we
saw what the Dolphins did against the Patriots, putting up
nearly four hundred yards, So the Patriots defense definitely has
some issues. Christian Gonzales will help a lot when he
comes back.
Speaker 1 (16:58):
AFC West. The public the dollars all in on the
Chargers minus won ten right now over at DraftKings to
win the division the Chiefs. You want to buy a
low opportunity. How about the Chiefs at nearly three to
one there plus two seventy to win the AFC West
quarterbacks going down fast and furious. That's one of the
big storylines this week. JJ McCarthy is out with an
(17:21):
ankle injury. Joe Burrow out several months. So we have
Jake Browning versus Carson Wentz. Kendra, are you still in
You were in Sunday Night Early Reads you wanted to
take the Minnesota Vikings. I don't know if you pulled
the trigger on that yet, but I did not take
God Okay, So are you off of that with this nonsense?
Speaker 3 (17:40):
Okay?
Speaker 2 (17:41):
Is it bad that I kind of like the Vikings
more than I did a couple of nights ago? Because
if you're gonna give me all right, let's say you
need to go out and win one game right now,
and you have, you know, a backyard pick them, Jake
Browning or Carson Wentz. I'm gonna take Carson Wentz every
single time.
Speaker 1 (17:59):
Yeah about seven years ago.
Speaker 3 (18:02):
Yeah, but Jeeke, I mean Jake brown up.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
And down the field of the Jacksonville Jaguars. I don't
know that.
Speaker 4 (18:10):
Browning beat her Jags.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
No, no, no, Jake Browning has always beat the Jags
anytime he's ever played them. Like, I don't know what
it is about Jake Browning being the Jaguars kryptonite. The
one thing you guys have got to learn about me
quickly is that I'm a realist about the Jacksonville Jaguars.
I have them winning nine games this year. I am
not one of these super fan girls that is unrealistic
about the team. They've hurt me for far too long,
for far too many years. I know where to keep
(18:32):
them so that they cannot hurt me anymore. I know
that Jake Browning is their kryptonite. X y Z. I
just truly and deeply believe that the Vikings have a
better offensive line. They're gonna give Carson Wentz more time
to throw the ball. Jamar Chase has not looked like
himself through the first couple of weeks of the season
as far as what he's actually capable of doing.
Speaker 3 (18:51):
And I like the Vikings defense better.
Speaker 4 (18:54):
Well, I'll say I don't mind. I don't mind the
looking at the Viks especially two and a half three,
because here's how I look at it like going into
that game, Going into the Sunday night game, I had
the Vikings as like a one point favorite over the
Bengals at home, and the Vikings have one of the
(19:15):
best home field advantages in the NFL. But the Vikings
look horrendous and they got dominated. Downgraded. The Vikings basically
now would have made that game a pick close to
a pick at full strength, So I would have had
I think bro is worth like five points now, but
Browning has been pretty good when he's played, so you
(19:36):
could tell me that it's four and I would buy that.
But so, all right, so let's adjust the spread out
of four four and a half. But then McCarthy is out.
Here's my thing is McCarthy is Wentz worse than McCarthy.
I don't know, maybe not.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
I don't think we know. I don't think we know
what the gas between McCarthy.
Speaker 4 (20:00):
We don't know what I'm saying, like there's a chance
that Wentz is better like McCarthy's body of work. No,
granted he had offensive line injuries, but it was seven
of eight quarters were horrendous. I mean, his his pressure
to sack ratio is the worst in the league. He's
on he was on pace to break David Carr's unbreakable
sack single season in sack record of seventy six. He's
(20:23):
on pace I think for seven. He's on pace for
seventy six and a half. But obvious he's gonna miss
time so probably won't break it. But he only get
he only could throw it to one side of the field.
He was super inaccurate. Like it was bad. He had
one quarter and by the way, the Bears did you
see with the lines into them without their corners. He
was playing the Bears without their corners. Aj Terrell missed
(20:43):
the second half their only lockdown corners, so they hadn't
like play more. They still couldn't move the ball. So
but I will say you the injuries for the Vikings
are worth watching. That's like, what's gonna make or break
this for me? You have Garrisol their left tackle. They
need him back Kelly, their center went out, even their
backup left tackle went out. Like their offensive line was
(21:05):
a disaster. And then on the defensive side, they've already
lost Cashman Van Yinkle missed last week, Harrison Smith missed
last week, Akuda missed last week. So there's a lot
of key injuries. But if they're healthier on the defensive
side and on the offensive line, I can get behind
the Vikings at three or better because I McCarthy might
just be bad.
Speaker 3 (21:25):
Now I think he is.
Speaker 4 (21:27):
Maybe he's two games, just just two games, but what
we have so far, just the sample, that game against
Atlanta from an EPA per play perspective, was worse than
Jaron Hall against the Packers like two years ago. For
the Vikings, who came in, threw a pick that led
to points, fumbled led to points, they got blown out,
(21:49):
and he got benched. That that game was so bad,
that was the one of the words. And I don't
think I think that O'Connell knows it. Like they weren't
being aggressive. He punted on that fourth and one basically
like surrender punt. So yeah, there might just not be
a drop off from McCarthy to Wentz. But I gotta
(22:10):
monitor some of these injuries because if their defense is healthy,
they're gonna bring pressure, and that Bengals offensive line is
not gonna be able to hold up. Then Brown is
probably gonna make a couple of mistakes.
Speaker 3 (22:21):
He's made so many mistakes this weekend.
Speaker 4 (22:23):
Yeah, but I mean he's not the worst backup. He's
pretty serious, but he's done well.
Speaker 1 (22:28):
But he'd be like to Minnesota, the top five backup.
Speaker 4 (22:31):
Yeah, but in Minnesota, if that defense is healthy, there's
probably gonna be some key mistakes. But interesting game two backups.
It's not a game I don't think anyone is really
gonna love. But that's the key to it. How much
do you think of a drop off? Number one is
Burrow to Browning, Like some people have seen that, I
(22:51):
respect say it's like three and a half points three
three and a half. I think it's more than that.
And how much of a drop off from from McCarthy
to Wentz, Like someone could say it's two points, someone
could say it's nothing, someone could say McCarthy's so bad
that it's an.
Speaker 3 (23:10):
Improvement, like s I'm in that camp.
Speaker 4 (23:13):
So that's that's like where this is gonna come down to.
And then Obviously, the line's at three, and whatever the
market thinks is what those margins is probably going to
decide whether this closes three and a half, four or
three two and a half.
Speaker 1 (23:29):
I think the Bengals, you kick that up to plus nine.
I think that's a great teaser leg just with how
ugly this game is likely to be. The totals really
low forty one, and like I think we've laid it
out nicely here, there's a lot of unknown with how
(23:49):
these quarterbacks, how much we should be adjusting these lines
based on the drop off of these quarterbacks. The Bengals
are also they were fifty or they are now fifty
to one to win the Super Bowl. I don't know
anybody that's trying to place that bet right now. They
opened at twenty to one, they're two and oh yet
plus nine point fifty to win the Division. One other
quarterback injury. I want to get to. Jayden Daniels is
(24:10):
day to day with the knee injury. The Commanders get
the Raiders on Sunday. The line went from the Commanders
minus six and a half, that was the line that
opened up before the game's wrapped up on Sunday, to
the Commander's minus three and a half, So it seems
like there is some market sentiment that he might miss
this one that would explain that drastic of a line move.
Anyone willing to take the plunge on a Mariota revenge game?
(24:33):
And how about this, before you scream no into the microphone,
Mariota is two and oh straight up. The last two
times he had to take the majority of snaps at quarterback,
both last season, both with the Commanders.
Speaker 4 (24:46):
I get catch you got anything?
Speaker 2 (24:48):
No, I don't think I want anything to do with
this game. To be honest, I'd probably lean the Raiders
to cover the number, but I just it's too yucky
for me.
Speaker 3 (24:59):
I can't get there.
Speaker 4 (25:00):
It's a it's a tough spot for the Raiders, just
on the surface. Right, divisional game Monday night, they were
in New England and they came across the country. Now
there to kind of come across the country again, Washington
is going to be much more well rested, right they're
coming they have They played on Thursday night, the Raiders
played on Monday night. Now coming back across the country.
(25:22):
So not ideal in that sense. I don't know on
Daniels like because last year he was he was supposed
to miss time, but he ended up playing right, remember
with his the rib injury, so I could see him
giving it a go, and with the with the way
the Raiders play the play defense just trying to prevent
the explosive play like Daniels could end up picking them apart,
(25:45):
even if he isn't as mobile. But Mariota's fine as
a backup, and he did well last year when he
came in. You know, obviously it's a drop off there still,
but uh, that's when we're going to have to monitor.
But yeah, they're the market's basically saying like we think
he's gonna miss, but not fully. So it's kind of
like in wait and see mode, so we'll see. I
(26:08):
have just a gut feeling that he's gonna play. But
circling back to Bengals Vikings, I don't mind your thought
process on the tees with the low total going across
up above a touchdown, but I will say I don't
generally like the teas games with we just talked about
how much so much uncertainty, so we just because of
that uncertainty, it kind of devalues a teaser a bit.
(26:30):
So like I like when I know, okay, I got
two bad quarterbacks, it's gonna be low scoring and there's
more certainty, where as opposed to this game where it's like,
well I don't know the drop off or I don't
know the injuries, I don't know how bad McCarthy is,
blah blah blah. So that will be my only hesitation there.
But Raiders Washington bad spot for the Raiders. But obviously
(26:54):
the injury is the big thing there. So I got
nothing there.
Speaker 1 (27:00):
Now.
Speaker 4 (27:00):
I will say if you got plus six and a
half is a good bet. But I've done that. I've
done that so many times, get ahead of quarterback injury
news and then the backup will come in and they'll
win by ten. But I have gotten there.
Speaker 2 (27:10):
I also kind of had the same idea that you did,
and thank god I didn't get to the window on it.
But I was thinking in the Patriots Dolphins game last
week and I was like, Okay, two bad quarterbacks, maybe
this could be an under scenario, and they just went.
Speaker 3 (27:22):
It was the first time the Patriots put up more
than thirty points in like three or four years.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
I just I think that that might have gotten me
off of betting a total like this also, I wanted
to circle back to this. I got schooled in my
own betting strategy the other day about the Vikings game
and new dads.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
I forgot that the key part of this.
Speaker 2 (27:41):
And one of the girls that like religiously listens to
my shows DMed me and said that I fucked up
because I am religious about only betting on new girl
dads and not boy dads. I didn't know JJ McCarthy
had a boy, but it has always been the girl
dad's strategy.
Speaker 4 (27:56):
You're going to keep filtering this every time something happens.
So it's only girl.
Speaker 3 (28:00):
I'm seeing this on now. Girl Dad's only girl Dad's.
Speaker 1 (28:05):
Girls that girls with names that start with the letter M.
You know, we just we'll continue to see. We just
need this tract, Evan, if you could get on this,
we want that in the primer.
Speaker 2 (28:15):
I'll take I'll take Owen one for now, but as
we know, moving forward, it's only girls.
Speaker 1 (28:20):
I don't even I think maybe the thing to add
to the as a caveat to this is that JJ
McCarthy's like twelve years old, and maybe that's the reason,
you know, he doesn't have like, he doesn't have real
like dad energy. You know, JJ McCarthy looks like he's
still sophomore in college.
Speaker 3 (28:36):
He's a child having a child exactly.
Speaker 1 (28:38):
So I feel like that that I can throw that
one out for that reason. This is something I wanted
to update folks on and maybe we'll do this on
Tuesdays shows moving forward. If people like it enough, who's
printing money for us? Who we need to be a
little bit weary about. It's too early to really gleam
anything legitimate from this, but I like to look at
this throughout the course of the season. Evan, feel free
(28:59):
to pop in the chat and verify any of these
if I misspeak. In terms of these numbers against the
spread standings, there are seven teams right now that are
two and zero against the closing number, Green Bay, Tampa, Indianapolis,
the La rams La Chargers, Buffalo Bills, San Francisco forty
nine ers. Do any of those stand out as I
(29:21):
want to fade them so quickly at the soonest opportunity,
I guess is the best way to ask this, because
you can't go undefeated against the spread.
Speaker 4 (29:28):
Well, Number one, you don't overreact generally. Week three, you know,
for for example, I'll win two against the spread underdogs
in week three or since two thousand and three, or
seventy two to fifty one and one against the spread,
about fifty eight and a half percent. That would apply
this week to the Dolphins, Saints, Texans, and Broncos. But
one of the teams I might want to face, I
think they might have been up I upgraded the Colts
(29:50):
a lot. The problem is it requires me to beout
the Titans, which I'll probably do anyway, so great.
Speaker 1 (29:55):
I wish they were playing anyone but the Titans. I
would be in on the other team this week. I
just hear it. I can't get it.
Speaker 4 (30:01):
Here's where like the Colts, I think they've I make
that two and a half, it's three and a half,
which means I probably have to take it. But I'll
just give you a crazy stat which illustrates, like, hey,
you don't want to overreact to small sample sizes and
what you just saw too much, so in weeks two
through five, so early in the season, when you might
(30:24):
end up overreacting to to a team winning as an underdog,
so a home underdog that one outright, which was the
Colts last week. That then when that goat then goes
on the road and is a favorite since two thousand
and three. Those teams are seventeen thirty nine and one
(30:49):
against the spread thirty percent, failing to cover by about
six points per game when they're fair by more than
a field goal six and sixteen against the spread when
that team that they're playing has a losing record eleven
twenty nine and one against the spread twenty seven and
a half percent. I will say on that game, So
it will be the Colts for me. The Titans last week.
(31:11):
I mean, the Titans were right there with the Ms
in the fourth quarter. What ended up happening, what ended
up burning them. There was a fumble like it was
like a three point game in the fourth quarter, and
then cam Wood got stripsacked and then the game was
over at his own twenty. But they didn't have sweat
in the interior defensive line, and that ended up being
huge because they were doubling Simmons and he wore down
(31:33):
and he had nothing left in the fourth quarter, and
they didn't have Latham. His backup was horrendous. And then
they lost Zeitler, one of the better guards in the country.
He went out and then their offensive line fell apart.
So I need to see that. They need to get
Zeitler and laith them back, and then they need Sweat
on the defensive line because then you just double Simmons.
(31:54):
If you have sweat and Simmons, you can't double one
or the other, and then they're in tier. Defense of
line becomes scary. So it might be the Titans for me,
like that just home dog won't win, go on the
road in a divisional game now favored by over a field goal.
I think it's a little too much, So that would
be the one for me.
Speaker 2 (32:16):
MAYA first thought was to look at it's crazy that
you're asking me this question. As I scroll through the schedule,
it's like, Okay, the Bucks are playing the Jets, the
Colts are playing the tight Ends, the forty nine ers
are playing the Cardinals, because those would have been my
first kind of thoughts of places to look, especially because.
Speaker 3 (32:34):
The forty nine ers are playing Mac Jones. But he
bawled out last week.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
I think we should probably stop talking shit about him
because it worked. But like I just I don't think
any of these teams this week or in a place
where I want to fade them. But it wouldn't be
the Colds for me. The spread's not big enough for
the forty nine ers.
Speaker 3 (32:51):
Is Biger hurt? Do we think?
Speaker 2 (32:53):
Because it might be the bucks for me if he
actually is just one of these guys where if he
gets injured and people are talking shit to him, then
he comes up and performs like nothing we've ever seen,
which I do think might be the case, but it
might be the I think that the best maybe value
on the.
Speaker 3 (33:07):
Board, if that's what you're looking for, is got to
be the box.
Speaker 4 (33:11):
Yeah, the Jets are Jets.
Speaker 1 (33:13):
Why you start Tyrod Taylor too? That's another quarterback injury
we didn't miss.
Speaker 4 (33:17):
Yeah, but that is that much of Is that a
drop off from Fields? I don't like we saw like
we kind of know Fields is bad. I bought him.
Speaker 1 (33:25):
I think Tyrod Taylor is justin fields, but with he
doesn't he's just not as successful a runner at least
justin fields.
Speaker 4 (33:32):
Has that in his fields, will make mistakes like Taylor
never makes mistakes. So that's a good thing that you
want with an underdog like not to win the game,
but they're like stay in it and cover seven with
a low total like Tyre Taylor was like top five
all time among qualified quarterbacks and the interception rate, so
he's not gonna make mistakes. He can run the offense.
So yeah, I mean I faded the Bucks the first
(33:54):
two weeks. I probably would again, but.
Speaker 1 (33:59):
They won Week one.
Speaker 4 (34:00):
They should have lost week too. They usially lost it.
They could easily be going to and this would be
a much different discussion. And you have to keep in
mind they're banged up, so their receivers are still all
banged up. And you got to saus Gardner too for
Mike Evans. Their offensive line is a mess. So it
might be the what's that?
Speaker 3 (34:23):
I think it might be the Bucks.
Speaker 4 (34:24):
They lost their rights, they lost get a key, they
already were without worfs, So yeah, the Bucks don't seem
like a team that is as of right now, is
built to really win by margin. They're kind of eking
out these games and they're getting a lot of breaks,
like they got another drop pick yesterday, a fumble that
didn't get recovered. Although they're special teams were they were
(34:45):
a bit unlucky, but the refs helped them out a
bunch early. So yeah, the Jets, that line is probably
gonna go up when Tyrod Taylor, Yeah, probably did.
Speaker 3 (34:54):
It's a touchdown, right, now.
Speaker 4 (34:56):
Seven yeah and a half, which I wouldn't like, but
it's even seven and a half.
Speaker 3 (35:02):
I think I get there.
Speaker 1 (35:04):
The juice on the game is telling a story that
early money's coming in on Tampa. The I bought it
at minus one oh five on Sunday after the Justin
Fields injury. It's now sitting at minus one fifteen in
most places. So it's probably going to get to seven
and a half, especially with the Taylor news and yeah, man,
at that point, especially if it kicks any higher. Tyrod
(35:27):
Taylor is in my opinion, a downgrade from Justin Fields,
even though Fields had a one point one quarterback rating
last week. But it's not that drastic. In terms of
the luck rankings, those are out there Action Network dot Com.
Keep updated with that. After Week one, the Tampa Bay
Buccaneers were number one. I imagine that the latest luck
ranking is going to have them right towards the top
of the list as well, So keep that in mind.
(35:48):
Yeah exactly. As far as the seven teams yet to
cover a spread Pittsburgh, Chicago, Houston, Denver, Kansas City, Miami,
and New Orleans, and maybe one of those teams pops
up as we play our flag it is time to
go around the horn here one game that you are
pot committed on. Here on Tuesday will lay out our
official picks. We'll do our three Musketeers, all for one,
(36:13):
one for all, and all for one Farlay on Thursday.
But right now, one pick that's already in the back pocket, Kendra,
what you got.
Speaker 3 (36:21):
I already put it down.
Speaker 2 (36:22):
My entire existence this year is just going to be
fading the Patriots. This is going to be three weeks
in a row.
Speaker 3 (36:28):
I'm one in one, but I'm going.
Speaker 2 (36:29):
To fade the Patriots this week against the Steelers, Mike
tom And I believe is five hundred in his career
against the Patriots obviously did not do so hot against
Bill Belichick.
Speaker 3 (36:37):
I want to say he was.
Speaker 2 (36:38):
Three and eight against Bill Belichick. Evan, please feel free
to check that. I believe that that is what I
wrote down in my notes, which I accidentally closed. But
I had just once again coaching thing. Their defense is
a lot better, Drake May is not impressing me. The
Patriots defense and special teams looked like crap this week.
I think that they're going to have a lot of energy,
a lot of hype, but you could just be the Dolphins.
(37:00):
I think that they need a crash course back to reality,
and that's going to be the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.
Speaker 3 (37:06):
I get that they didn't look like a world beater.
Speaker 2 (37:07):
I didn't expect them to this season, but they're a
much better team on paper and on the field. I
don't see how people are on the Patriots this week.
Speaker 4 (37:15):
Sound sounds like Kendrick's going to try to fade the
Patriots every single week. We'll see what she brings on Thursday.
Do you have any update on Gonzales?
Speaker 2 (37:22):
So that was the thing that I was thinking about
last week, is so I think I told you guys
that on his Instagram story he was posting like a
bunch of cryptic stuff that sounded like he was going
to be back and going to be ready to play,
and then it came out later in the week. I
want to say, like Thursday Friday, that there was really
not a chance that he was going to play. So
I for me, it feels almost like they're holding him
(37:43):
out even though there is always has been that question
around his toughness as a player.
Speaker 3 (37:47):
We talked about on Sunday that that's potentially.
Speaker 2 (37:49):
Why he fell in the draft. I think that he
has to be back this week. You cannot nurse a
hamstring for two months. I'm sorry, you just you cannot
do that, especially when your team needs you. They dk
metcalfet Friarmooth like they've got weapons on this team. They
need Gonzalez back otherwise there's not even a ship shot
in hell that this is gonna happen.
Speaker 4 (38:08):
Yeah, two defenses that are struggle. I mean, the Steelers
defense looks horrendous, and their special teams looks bad too,
I mean Aleb Johnson. But the Steers are a bunch
of defensive injuries also that are are worth monitoring very
every I don't know what means, but.
Speaker 1 (38:27):
So defense is so bad as it is. I'm on
the Patriots this week.
Speaker 2 (38:31):
Can't go with you, I got now, but I'll go
got to break the tie, Stucky, you gotta do it.
Speaker 3 (38:38):
Pick a side.
Speaker 1 (38:39):
I will on.
Speaker 4 (38:39):
Thursday, I gotta. I gotta look into some injuries some more,
but I'll.
Speaker 1 (38:44):
We don't break ties on Tuesdays.
Speaker 4 (38:47):
I'm gonna come up with some head to heads like bets.
So like yet someone has to pay it off. What
you have to do, but I'm gonna. I'm I'm still
brainstorming on that to make make it a little fun.
But I'll play my flag on the Rams plus three
and a half. The Eagles right now can't beat anybody
by margin like they are now. Granted, part of this
(39:07):
is because the tush play. I mean they're twelve percent
of their plays were the tush push. Last week. They're
averaging four point three yards per play. And they played
the Cowboys defense, which gave up seven hundred points to
the Giants and who couldn't score against Washington. And then
they played the Chiefs defense, who got shredded by the
Chargers but had issues on the back end. They couldn't
(39:30):
take their play. Calll is so bad. If Goddard's out again,
like it's it's a mess. They can't throw it. How
is his Eagles team getting margin to anyone? It's like
they're worse than last year. The Rams almost beat them
in Philly in the playoffs. It was a dead even
game statistically, and the Rams had two turnovers and didn't
convert on two four downs. Rams are playing really well.
(39:51):
They've obviously had this game circled. McVeigh does really well
on these East Coast trips. He is and by way
phase eighteen eleven and two against the spread of the
dog of three plus fourteen to seven and one against
the spread in the Eastern time zone, covering by five
points per game, so it's covering two out of three
sixty seven percent. I think the reps gonna be right
there that this Eagles team just can't get margin than anyone.
Their defense is in as good, play calling is so bad,
(40:13):
and there's I don't know if Brown is hurt, if
they're stuck in the mud, but I'm sure they'll end
up winning by like three because I mean, think about
last week. They easily lose that game. If Kelsey catches
a free touchdown, that play was worth negative seven and
a half points free touchdown into an interception. They also
were gifted three when the Chiefs couldn't get one yard
(40:35):
they made a fifty yard They easily could have lost
that game. We've had a different conversation about how bad
their offense is, but because they're two to zero, no
one's really talking about it. I think anything over three
you have to take here. This Eagles offense is a
mess right now. They just there. They have two completions
over twelve yards all year, and they play and on
one of the gains of the Cowboys. I think Russ
(40:55):
had like seventeen in one game against the Cowboys defense.
So yeah, I'm taking the Rams plus three and a half.
I think that game probably goes down to the wire
and a little. I just have a sneaky suspicion. McVeigh
inquired with the league office today about the tush bush.
He was one that was against it. He was like,
(41:18):
you used to be on the rules committee. I have
a sneaky fision. You're gonna see fall starts or off
sides on the offense called this week when they do
it all this, yeah about it and how they I
mean the Eagles went off sides on them, like they
fall started like on three of them last week. Oh yeah,
so and they lined up illegal. You're gonna get flags
on that play. And that is so big, Like you
(41:39):
just get a flag on one of those plays, Like
if you just take the Eagles from fourth and one
or to fourth and six, well that's a punt or
third to one to third and six, well then they
actually have to throw it downfield. That is huge for
the entire game. So if there's like a couple of
flags on those plays, just watch out for that. I
like the Rams plus three and a half.
Speaker 1 (41:59):
H I like that pick Bears minus one is my
plant the flag pick off a blowout loss, taking on
a Cowboys team off of five quarters of football. They
almost played until the bone on that one. Chicago at
home the last five seasons have been nearly three points
better in terms of their home and road splits. That
ranks top ten in the NFL over that time. Early
(42:21):
action also tilting in that direction. I already grabbed the
minus one zho five on them minus one. We're seeing
that line tick up to minus one and a half
in some places. But I like Chicago in the bounce back.
And now for the main event. No betting week can
be complete without it, or can you even start without it?
The primer courtesy of Evan Abrams. Evan, welcome to the show.
(42:45):
What are we looking at this week as far as
our primer stats that we need to know before we
place these bets.
Speaker 5 (42:53):
What's going on everybody? I mean, it's just impossible not
to talk about favorites at the moment. I too this
out there. They don't lose anymore, It's insane. I just
these numbers feel fake. It's video game like, but right now,
closing favorites four points or more twelve and oh straight
up this year, there's sixty four and seven ninety percent
Since Week thirteen of last season in that same league
(43:16):
I love in that listen, in that same span, favorites
is six plus points, forty seven and four. Again, all
fields just very dumb at this point, and even last night,
so Chargers went on the road. Road favorites ninety and
thirty two just since the start of last season, So
even road chalk, I think the home field advantage thing stuck.
(43:38):
You were talking about it with Minnesota kind of having
one of the best in the NFL. Aside from that, like,
I just think road favorites are becoming more valuable and
probably just price just the same other things. I'll be
looking at this week. Backup quarterback, So I have a
database myself with every backup quarterback over the last like
fifteen years, so I want to dig a little bit
into this many backups as early in the season. I'll
(44:01):
say this in terms of our data. So you guys
are talking about Pittsburgh and the Patriots right now. The
Patriots are the biggest public side on Tuesday morning, ninety
one percent of tickets, so nobody wants to bet the
zero to two ats Steelers getting nine percent right now
as a road favorite, which also isn't great for Tomlin.
(44:21):
I'll say this as well. Teams with sixty percent of
tickets are more two and thirteen against the spread according
to our data this year. So the real chalk getting
absolutely hammered. I mean, there's a lot of stuff, but
there's a great Monday night football game. And I'll leave
you with this. John Harbaugh twenty three and four straight
(44:43):
up at home and night games with the Ravens. Stuck
knows this even early in the season, nineteen and one
in that spot. So pretty tough one for Detroit. I
think the spread five and a half six for a reason,
and Detroit off of a big win, that's going to
be a lot of tickets on that game.
Speaker 4 (44:59):
Yeah, I will Ravens one thing you want to watch.
Likely does he come back, But more importantly, it looks
like Van Neyt's probably gonna be out. Humphrey is key.
You need him in the slot, especially against Detroit. Jaya
Alexander is he gonna be back, But the Humphrey's out,
like in their corner. Depth is not great right now,
but he's so key to that defense. If he's in,
(45:21):
I think Ravens went by seven plus. If he's not,
gets a little diceier, But the Ravens are gonna score.
Probably I will against Detroit. I will also go back
to your Bears point one. I almost always play this
team after a team after losing by thirty points the
week before. If you go back to two thousand and three,
(45:41):
after a loss of thirty plus, teams are one forty
nine ten against the spread, outs over fifty five percent
when they're an underdog or favored by less than three
sixty percent against the spread. And Johnson owns eebra flus.
My only concern is the Bears. The Bears defensive injuries,
Like it looks like Jalen Johnson's going to miss the year,
(46:02):
which is huge. They're all pro corner Kyler Gordon. I
think he's probably gonna be out again throughout the really
good corner. So their corner room is horrendous right now.
So like, how are they stopping Dak and those receivers.
I don't know. I really don't know, because it's not
like they can get a ton of pressure. So I'm
trying to decide if I want to bet the Bears
or if I just want to bet the Bears team
(46:23):
total over like twenty five or whatever it's going to be.
But I don't mind your Bears. Look there after an
embarrassing loss and the Cowboys who should have lost to
the Giants. The other thing that worries me, though, is
the kick. We have the new kickoff rules. This is
the biggest kicker mismatch in NFL history. You got a
kicker who could make it from seventy and then you
(46:43):
got Santo's who is his like range? Is his max
range is like forty two?
Speaker 1 (46:49):
So need the Windy City to show up in this one?
Speaker 2 (46:52):
Well, put some respect on Cam Little, the only man
to kick a seventy yarder.
Speaker 4 (46:58):
Well it's not not officially, sorry, oh my god, not officially.
Speaker 1 (47:03):
Evan, before we cut you loose. By the time we
get most people listen to the Thursday episode, they will
over either already made up their minds for Bills Dolphins,
or we'll be past that point. Is there anything for
Thursday Night, whether it's big double digit favorites on Thursdays,
the Bills at home, the Bills at home against Miami,
Is there anything you've looked at as far as that
(47:25):
matchup goes.
Speaker 5 (47:26):
I mean, I guess if you want to take Miami
the one end, so you can look at as the
fact that Dogs are six and two in night games
this year, so it's a decent start. But anything you
look at when it comes to two against Buffalo is
just gross. It's let's see Miami two and thirteen straight
up versus Josh Allen win eight straight up in Buffalo
one and eight with TUA, and then the two a
(47:49):
stat that really scares me and probably scares most people.
Two and thirteen straight up four ten and one against
the spread away from home versus winning teams in his career,
and I believe he's lost ten great in that spot.
So just a real, real, real bad one.
Speaker 4 (48:04):
But the only thing I'll add though, is that it's
the spread is twelve and a half correct, Like this
is different than now, is worse than.
Speaker 5 (48:12):
You second second biggest of his career he was plus
fifteen against Buffalo in twenty one, so yeah, this number
is massive, So.
Speaker 4 (48:19):
Yeah, this is it's a huge number. Like if you
look back, I think the biggest like McDermott is zero
to three against the spread against the Dolphins when he's
favored by more than a field goal, and he's never
been favored by more than seven. Last year in this
game in Buffalo in November, and Miami was not good.
(48:39):
The Bills closed six and a half, they won by three,
and they probably should have lost. So this is a
big adjustment. But Miami's obviously way worse. You got to
decide how much worse. I mean, I make this like
ten point seven. The other thing is, I mean they're
offensive line semester's injuries. Their secondary is the mess. The
Bills have injuries too that are worth watching, like Toron Johnson,
Milano Oliver like those are three of their best defenders,
(49:02):
so it's worth watching there. But and I will say
I having divisional double digit divisional dogs are usually a
good bet I think over the last forty years or
like fifty five percent. But you gotta bet the Dolphins
have a ton of injuries too. But you gotta bet this.
This Miami team, I mean, this Miami team is it.
Did you see the operation in the last minute against
(49:25):
the Patriots. They went first and ten at the forty
to go to win the game, They got a delay
of game and then they got a. I think they
got another delay of game and then.
Speaker 3 (49:37):
There's gonna twist a knife on me right now.
Speaker 4 (49:39):
Didn't they have two delay of games in a row.
Speaker 3 (49:42):
It was, you're just what you can you know what?
You want to pull the knife out of my back
right now? Please, thank you.
Speaker 4 (49:47):
It was and then they had to rush to play
the next play. Some you gotta go back and watch it.
Speaker 5 (49:53):
It was.
Speaker 3 (49:55):
It was I'm gonna do after this. I'm gonna go
rewatch the Patriots.
Speaker 1 (49:58):
Yeah, yeah, and then and then it takes the sack
and boom boom goes to the dynamite and the like.
Speaker 4 (50:04):
Think about this. It's first and ten and at the
New England forty four the minute fifteen, and they completed
for eighteen yards first and ten at the twenty six
minute nine. You're in perfect position to win this game, sorry, Kendrew.
Delay of game, uh, first and fifteen. Delayed game again,
(50:25):
first and twenty and then they they have to they
rush the snap with like one second. Everyone was confused
three plays in a row, and then you get sacked
and then sacked.
Speaker 3 (50:36):
And I was sitting at the bar trying to drink
my pickled beer.
Speaker 2 (50:39):
In peace with a bunch of Patriots fans feeling really good,
and then you know.
Speaker 4 (50:46):
The thing, keep paying eventually get one.
Speaker 2 (50:49):
I got, I got the Raiders. What I faded the Patriots?
Week one one with the Raiders plus one thirty one?
Speaker 4 (50:57):
Oh gotcha? Okay, last week one?
Speaker 3 (50:59):
Yeah, exactly last week. I should have won last week
And now you know what, I'm rocking with my Ayahuasca
King and Mike Tomlin.
Speaker 4 (51:08):
Are you committed to doing this all eighteen already?
Speaker 3 (51:10):
I already did it. It's already tracked in the action app.
We're good to go.
Speaker 4 (51:14):
No, I'm saying, are you committed to doing this every week?
You're gonna fait the Patriots.
Speaker 2 (51:18):
Give me until week's live to make a decision. But
for the most part, they ruined my life in twenty seventeen,
so probably.
Speaker 4 (51:25):
Oh you know what. Next week the Patriots host your Panthers.
Speaker 3 (51:32):
My sadcuts are back.
Speaker 4 (51:34):
I will say no Panthers, the injury news, Hunt and
Corbett they're starting too.
Speaker 3 (51:40):
Yeah, I'm already on the Panthers.
Speaker 4 (51:42):
Not good. Yeah, that's gonna be your biggest bet of
the year. Panthers at Patriots.
Speaker 3 (51:47):
Yeah. I love the few words.
Speaker 1 (51:51):
Evan, Thank you, you're a gentleman and a scholar, and
that'll do it for today's episode special thanks to our
producers Matt Mitchell, the Icon and Gifford Gould on video.
The Favorites will return on Thursday right here on the
Action Network YouTube page when we talk Week three bets
and we get our official parlay in there. Good luck
with all your bets. We'll see you next time right
(52:12):
here on the Favorites. Cash these tickets cheers.
Speaker 3 (52:20):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Hosts And Creators
Chad Millman
Simon Hunter
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