September 23, 2025 • 54 mins
Fresh off a Monday Night Football waxing-moon banger, Action Network hosts Kendra Middleton, Stuckey and Brandon Kravitz return to preview NFL Week 4. The rapture is upon us, allegedly, so it's time for some wacky looks at betting the NFL in Week 4. Kendra's in a pickle on this week's matchup between the New England Patriots and Carolina Sad Cats, the crew plant's their flag early in the week on a few games and more. Finally, we get our weekly NFL Primer courtesy of Action Director of Research Evan Abrams, delivering everything you need to start your betting week in the NFL.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Welcome to the Favorites Podcast, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook, part
of the Action Network. Your Favorites Trio is back. I'm
Brandon Kravitz, joined by the wonderfully insightful and talented Stuckey
and Kendra Middleton. On today's episode, we've got our plant
the Flag game for week four? Who are we in
on early? A breakdown of the top storylines, and of
(00:32):
course the main event evans Tuesday primer. We cannot live
and breathe without it. An update for the schedule. This week,
we'll have our typical Thursday show where we lock in
our best bets. Our Three Musketeers parlay, which I am
hearing from production is losing its name because we haven't
landed on a winner just yet. But we have no
show Sunday night for a recap this week, but we
(00:55):
got you covered today and Thursday, and then of course
back at it next week. For five. Kendra is headed
to San Francisco. That's part of the reason we don't
have a Sunday night show. You're gonna see what could
be Mac Jones versus Trevor Lawrence. Who knows? But how
excited are you for your trip to the West Coast?
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Is it bad that I wanted to be brock Party,
even if that means that the Jags get their asspeed
just so I don't want to watch Mac Jones.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
Yeah, I figured that that might be the case.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
I would much rather even if I would rather lose
to the brock Party led forty nine Ers in a
horrible fashion once again, because every time I go walk
to the forty nine Ers and the Jaguars, that's what happens.
Then watch Mac Jones at all for any reason, especially
if he's going to beat them.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
So before we get into any football talk, I think
you might be the best person to help us out here.
I don't know, Stucky, how informed you are on the rapture,
but apparently that's happening today. My wife informs me of
this last night, and I thought, Okay, what am I
supposed to do with that? In from I haven't been
raptured yet. I also don't know exactly what that means,
(02:05):
so fill us in. I mean, you got the waxing
waning moon paid off last night with Jared Goff and
the Detroit Lions. So if there's some way I can
weave this into my Week four betting card, let me know.
But what am I looking at here? What does this mean?
What am I supposed to do with this?
Speaker 2 (02:22):
People were so mean to me on the internet about
my waxing carrescent moon take, and I would like to
tell all of you to suck me. Okay, it worked out,
and it worked out big time. Anytime there's a waxing
crescent moon and the lions are playing from now on,
that's my Jesus Christ.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
That is that is my bread and butter. That is
what is going on for me. However, I'll see you
guys tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
But allegedly the rapture is happening today. I think that
this is like the third rapture in my lifetime. People
are selling their cars, which, first of all, I don't
understand why so many people on the internet are selling
their things, Like if you're getting raptured, you don't need
the money, Like what are you going to do with
why are you selling your things? Just anyways, I watched
a ten minute breakdown that this girl did about what
(03:06):
to do when you're raptured. Apparently, don't grab onto things
in your house, don't touch things because it just prevents
you from being raptured when you do that. Don't look
down because you might get sick. You're supposed to just
look up to just.
Speaker 3 (03:18):
Go and whatever.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
There's people online who are like, I'm being raptured tomorrow,
and if I am not raptured, I will come online,
make an apology video, and get off of the internet forever.
Speaker 3 (03:29):
I guess like the signs of all of.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
This political crap going on that we're not supposed to
be talking about at our jobs is why people think
that the rapture is happening. Like I said, I'll see
you guys tomorrow. I'm pretty sure this is like the
third rapture of my lifetime. But people are selling all
of their shit. And I guess four o'clock today, if
you see people floating, it is the rapture stuck you
in on this.
Speaker 4 (03:52):
No, I don't have time for this nonsense. They this
is like the every year there's that this is the
end of the world. This is the real rapture will
come when if the Titans actually cover a game. But
I found a new obsession, and uh, it's this stuff.
Speaker 1 (04:13):
It's is that a candle think salt?
Speaker 4 (04:16):
I think it's pronounced nom pre pal could be mispronounced it,
but it's tie chili oil.
Speaker 3 (04:23):
And oh yeah, my friends.
Speaker 4 (04:24):
From Chicago brought this one for me this weekend. They
came to visit and like the sandwich shop by them
in Chicago puts it on all their breakfast sandwiches. Oh
my god. I made egg sandwiches on like fresh fresh
carved out roll the past two days and then just
drenched the role in this.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
It is, I'm a life hack for you, believable. I
do this with pesto too. Just take like a teaspoon
of it and put it in your pan and then
crack your egg in it, and the egg cooks in
that oil and it like some versus itself in it.
And that way you have like the spicy eggs for
your breakfast sandwiches and it doesn't drip off because the
egg cooked in it.
Speaker 3 (05:06):
It's so good.
Speaker 4 (05:07):
That's a good idea. I'll try that tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (05:10):
So look at it's called just Google. We're not we're
not sponsored by this. What do they want to sponsors?
I would, uh just google pink salt and then nom
n a m preak I think it's p r I
K and then pal p ao it's tye roasted chili jam. Oh,
it's like the best breakfast sandwich. I've ever had.
Speaker 1 (05:32):
This he's had, but we can't get him to try
Zaxby's sauce.
Speaker 3 (05:36):
Hey, he tried. Don't put that evil.
Speaker 4 (05:38):
I tried to do it. I blame that customer service.
That's a Chick fil A. Wouldn't have forgotten my sauce.
Chick fil A won the best chicken Sandwich. Did you
see that?
Speaker 3 (05:48):
That doesn't surprise me.
Speaker 1 (05:50):
Who is awarding this?
Speaker 4 (05:52):
The American Chicken Association. I don't even know if that's
the thing. Let's see, I just read it.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
Maybe we are being raptured.
Speaker 2 (06:04):
The Christian chicken sandwich got voted the best chicken sandwich,
and now they're never going to have another contest because
we're all going to be raptured.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
So one question I have to go back to the
rapture for a moment. We'll get to our picks in
a minute. Is do I is this like a crack
in the ground that you fall into or am.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
You don't up?
Speaker 1 (06:19):
Sucked up?
Speaker 3 (06:20):
You go up?
Speaker 1 (06:21):
Gotcha?
Speaker 3 (06:22):
That's why the girl was.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
Saying, you like, shouldn't look down like you just stare
up the whole time. Imagine getting raptured and getting like
motion sickness and just like throwing up right thing below.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
You doesn't sound that bad. I imagine you're going to
the You're you're going to the better place. That's the
idea of this.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
I guess if that's your idea of the better place,
I still want to smoke darts with Satan.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
Well, I mean, like, are you just going to the
moon or you? Is this like a spiritual thing?
Speaker 3 (06:50):
I don't know. I don't know.
Speaker 2 (06:51):
I grew up in the Southern Baptist Church and I
this is this is my third rapture and I still
don't know.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
Okay. Sponsored by Elon Musk and his news base cadets.
I guess all right, well, hey, what do you say
we move on to the main dish? Some news across
the league. One night night football was electric, twenty eight
points scored in the first half alone, sixty eight total.
The Lions win by eight on the road against Baltimore.
(07:18):
Four touchdowns for the Lions running backs to a piece
for Gibbs and David Montgomery. The props were propping last
night across the board. But is Derrick Henry broken? I
mean this is now two times this year where he
has not him alone. The defense has issues, but where
he has cost this team mightily with a big time fumble. Stucky,
(07:39):
you're a Ravens fan, how did you compute what happened
last night?
Speaker 4 (07:44):
Yeah? The Ravens just right now, they're not the same
team as they will be when they're fully healthy. They're
missing like number one. Their offense isn't humming as it
usually does. Is just not as efficient. There's still some
explosiveness still Lamar, but the guard are struggling for He's
really struggling, So the offensive line is not great. I
did think the Lions. I was really impressed with the
(08:06):
Lion's defensive game plan and how they rushed and spied Lamar.
It differed a lot from the first time these two
teams played two years ago. But they don't have Likely
in Ricard, and when they have Likely, it is that's
how they create so many mismatches and heavy formations. And
you have Likely and Andrews out there and then Ricard,
and then you can do so many things that teams
(08:28):
aren't used to seeing. And they might get Likely back
but this week, but they just aren't full strength, and
their offensive line in the interior of both guard positions
is really struggling, which you're seeing on just the drive
by drive efficiency basis. And on the defensive end, they
(08:48):
really miss Matabuke in the middle like they've been they
have allowed going into last night. It's gonna get worse
now they've allowed two yards more per carry without him
on the field. He's also their best interior pass rusher.
So those are the those that's how you beat the Lions.
(09:09):
You get interior pressure. The Ravens can't really get interior
pressure now with that Madibuque, and their run defense is
much worse. You saw that throughout the night. So the
Ravens have to get a lot healthier because they're missing
that key cog in the middle of their defense who
does so much, not only on against the run, but
on late downs and then on offense. They just don't
have their full complement of weapons in addition to the
(09:32):
offensive line struggling. So yeah, it's a Ravens team that
sets far from peak right now. So impressive roadwin for
the for the Lions.
Speaker 3 (09:39):
My big issue has Henry broken.
Speaker 4 (09:41):
I mean it's probably just fluky, but it's crazy that
it's happenings.
Speaker 3 (09:47):
Three in a row.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
Yeah, and that's just not He's not a running back
that fumbles, so it is a question of is he broken.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
I think my big issue last night was just Todd
Monkin in general. I don't think that it was the
best game for him.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
I think that they've definitely got away from their bread
and butter and what we as consumers and fans know
to be Ravens football over the last twenty five years,
and Lamar Jackson just it looked like he was trying
not to run or be traditional Lamar Jackson last night.
He took way too long to look downfield, way too
long to make decisions, held onto the ball way too long.
(10:19):
There were times where I was screaming at my TV,
just go just run, just be Lamar Jackson, be that
guy stopped looking downfield.
Speaker 3 (10:26):
It just it felt like Todd Monkin.
Speaker 2 (10:27):
Got away from the football that we know that the
Ravens play, and that was their biggest issue. There were
times I was genuinely screaming at Lamar through my TV.
Speaker 3 (10:35):
And they just they passed way too much.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
I get that Derrick Henry has been having you know,
fumble problems, but he despite that, he's still been the
Derrick Henry that we know that man does not age
and Lamar, you are the best dual threat quarterback in
the league. Use your legs when it looks like you
need to run, run, you know better than anybody else.
Speaker 3 (10:54):
Just it felt like they got.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
Away from what we know Raven's football to be and
that it was them shooting them the foot. I can
take the injury thing, I get that, but they were
in that game from start to finish, and there's nobody
to blame but themselves for that loss.
Speaker 3 (11:08):
The Lions played lights out. Their run game gave them fits.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
The defense absolutely did their job. It was at six
sacks seven sacks at the end of the night.
Speaker 3 (11:14):
Seven did their job.
Speaker 2 (11:16):
But still they were in that game and there was
no excuse other than themselves on offense shooting themselves in
the foot.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
Eighty that it makes. He makes such a big difference
on that Lion's defense. But I mean, Lamar passing wise
was terrific. But in terms of actually managing the game,
we got Mark Andrews back involved. He had a total
of seven yards entering last night, ends up in ninety
six and two touchdowns. One of those was just kind
of garbage time at the end of the game. But
(11:48):
I don't want to get too far ahead here, but
we are very much a show and a peoples of
looking ahead, not behind. I always want to do a
quick recap, especially when you have a game that's that exciting.
But this is about what's next. The Ravens have a
big one on Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs. They
are road favorites against the Chiefs team. That wall was
(12:08):
against the Giants. Feels like they found themselves at least
slightly on offense. Mahomes deep ball was cooking again early
Reid Kendra on that game, have you placed any bets
on it? What are you thinking? Early on? I want
to be on the Chiefs, but I hate fading a
Ravens team off of a loss like this.
Speaker 2 (12:27):
I was gonna say, I know, you guys love the
angle of a Mahomes like home dog, whatever situation. But
I'm probably going to be on the Ravens once again
this week just because once they're coming off of a loss,
I don't really care that they're on the road. I
hate to feed them in that situation. But it's more
so just I'm watching this Chiefs team and I think
that they suck the Giants. They didn't beat the Giants
(12:48):
the Giants beat the Giants, Okay, like Russell Wilson hot
garbage ass Okay, this has to be the We can
talk about the Giants later, but it has to be
Jackson start from here. But it's just the Ravens coming
off of this loss. I think they're gonna be out
for blood. I don't think Derek Henry can fumble four
games in a row.
Speaker 3 (13:07):
The Chiefs don't look good. They don't look like the
Chiefs we know them to be.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
I'm out on the Patrick Mahomes home dog. The Chiefs
are injured, Sure, the Ravens are also injured, but that
team is just so much more depth across the board.
Speaker 3 (13:21):
I can't.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
The Chiefs are just not themselves and I'm not going
to back them until they convince me that they are
the team that they have been for the last five, six,
seven years. And the Ravens can be and I think
that they are more likely to fix their issues in
this scenario than the Chiefs not even being able to
really beat the Giants. How I would like them to
beat the Giants for me to be convinced to put
(13:42):
my hard earned dollar on them this week.
Speaker 1 (13:44):
Stucky. If the Chiefs can run the football, which they
haven't been great at this year against this Ravens team,
and Mahomes feels comfortable. That is the Mahomes Chiefs dog
that I want to be in on. We know the
defense is going to show up. I'm kind of stuck
in the middle here. Where do you stand early on
on this game?
Speaker 4 (14:04):
No, I want no interest of the Chiefs. I mean
I thought the Chiefs looked awful again. I mean, look,
they have the average savage four yards per play against
the Giants. The Giants and the Chiefs both average four
yards per play on Sunday. The Giants didn't have a kicker,
which cost them, like, I don't know, six points, and
they were down, they were at the goal line. They
could have another touchdown. Yeah, I mean, Mahomes completed two
balls downfield. But you got to remember no kicker, and
(14:27):
Andrew Thomas didn't play the second half, and Russell Wilson
was just throwing it into the end zone. This Chief's
just throwing him to the tunnel at the end of
the game. I don't know what he was doing. So
I wasn't overly impressed with the Chiefs. I know Chris
Collinsworth was just drooling all over. Mahomes also threw it
backwards twice, just.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
Like that was crazy. That was He just doesn't That's
what I'm saying. Last week, he doesn't seem like the
same guy.
Speaker 4 (14:55):
I thought that could have been two Giants touchdowns and
which would have swung the whole game. I mean, they
also won the turn of a battle to nothing. The
Giants went one a four on fourth down, they didn't
have a kicker, and it was kind of a game.
Speaker 2 (15:09):
So wait, I have a question, since we are getting
raptured do we just put fucking money everywhere this week? Like,
do we do we go balls to the wall because
money doesn't matter. We're getting raptured.
Speaker 1 (15:21):
Well, people are selling stuff, so I don't know that everybody.
Speaker 4 (15:26):
There's no need to even put place at that.
Speaker 1 (15:28):
I don't get raptured. I still I still want a
bank roll, So I just I'm not ready to make
that sort of commitment.
Speaker 4 (15:34):
They but no, I can't back the Chiefs here. But
the Raidings have issues. Like I said, I don't know
if it's like their defense this week unlike last week? Though,
can you know you can provide help because when you're
playing the lines, they can spread you out. They have
really good receivers, but here the Chiefs run game isn't
(15:56):
as good. They don't have Gibbs in Montgomery and their
receivers aren't as good. Well see if Worthy can go.
But this Chiefs offense is just like even the loss
amount of Bouquet isn't as great this week as it
was last week. And this Chief's back end on the
defense still has issues so that I think Lamar can exploit.
But I'll tell you the Chiefs are probably gonna look
(16:19):
at a lot of what the Lions did defensively last week.
The key to me, there's two keys, is Worthy back.
He's just so huge for the Chiefs offense and is
likely back for the Ravens. And then if so, how
healthy are they and in what capacity? But both of
those pieces are really important. But yeah, I want no
part of the Chiefs as of right now. Two and
(16:40):
a half. I will say this game is huge because
this is essentially a one seed elimination game because you look,
I mean you look at the Bills schedule. The Ravens
already have a loss to the Bills. If they lose
to the Chiefs, I don't see them getting the one seed,
which is uber important. If the Chiefs fall to one
(17:01):
in three, I don't see them finely. I mean, maybe
they could beat the Bills head to head, that'll help
make up the gap. But this game is big for
playoff positioning. The teams that coming into the season thought
they were going to get a one seed. They don't
win this game, and then you're going to have a
tougher path in the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
At the end of the day, I think we're looking
at the difference being the Ravens can clean.
Speaker 3 (17:21):
Up the issues that they had last night.
Speaker 2 (17:23):
The Chiefs cannot make up for the lack of talent
and the injuries in comparison to the Ravens right now.
Speaker 3 (17:29):
That's what I'm looking at.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
Like the Ravens can limit the turnovers, they can have
Lamar get the ball out quicker, they can change their
offensive plan a little bit. The Chiefs cannot get over
the lack of talent issue that they're having right now.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
It's still a team that you need to downgrade at
least slightly, just in the fact that they're coming off
of a Monday night football game where they just got
beat up by the Detroit Lions. So there is that
also that the Ravens are at a scheduled disadvantage here,
not just being on the road, but I think even
more importantly, coming off of that Monday night game, it
sounds to me like we're all on a holding pattern
with this one. So we'll put them to the side
(18:00):
till Thursday.
Speaker 4 (18:02):
By the way, the Eagles were just minus one and
a half in Kansas City. I mean I have the
Raidens three points better than the Eagles, so now they're
not at one hundred percent full strength with neither is
Kansas City. So I would in order to entertain the Chiefs,
I would need at least three, but definitely not at
two and a half.
Speaker 1 (18:22):
I don't think this ever touches three, do you.
Speaker 4 (18:25):
I could see it. Let's see there is.
Speaker 3 (18:31):
It looks like two and a half's across the board.
Speaker 4 (18:34):
Yeah, but there there's semi juice. There's like minus two
and a half minus one twenty, So I could see
a touch in three. Depending it'll depend on injury reports,
and there'll probably be some buy on Kansas City at three,
but we'll be monitoring and we'll talk more on Thursday
about it.
Speaker 1 (18:47):
Yeah, I'll be one of the buyers when that touches
the three Monday night football in the Bucks. Let's move
on to Viking Steelers leave for Dublin on Thursday after practice.
So I did digging to see both of the travel
schedules here Kendra, to see if we had any sort
of an edge on who lands in Dublin first. They
(19:08):
both leave Thursday after practice, so I don't know who's
gonna land first, but they're not gonna land too far
apart from one another.
Speaker 3 (19:15):
I think that's so dumb.
Speaker 1 (19:17):
I know, I don't know that we does it still
matter if it's like fifteen minutes apart? Is it just okay?
It has to be well you're talking hours days?
Speaker 3 (19:27):
Yeah, yeah, because there actually is data.
Speaker 2 (19:29):
I don't know if Evan wound up looking into it
or not, but I remember specifically the last couple of
years there being a difference between people who would leave
pretty much, you know, Monday or Tuesday, and then the
people who would follow the Thursday schedule and leave. There
definitely was a significant advantage in the team who got
there earlier. And I even look back at like, like
(19:50):
I said, Jags fan, I've been through this quite a
few times. Jags got their absolute ass beat by the
Bears in their first game last year, stayed played a
second game across the way in London against the Patriots
last year and wax the Patriots.
Speaker 3 (20:02):
The time advantage definitely helps you.
Speaker 2 (20:05):
I don't like I said. I don't know if Evan
looked into it. I should have probably done more research.
But as someone who has suffered through these London games
for quite some time now and pays attention to all
of them, there is an advantage to getting there earlier
and adjusting well, and.
Speaker 1 (20:18):
There's definitely an advantage to staying there. I think the
bigger advantage isn't so much about this week on Minnesota
or Pittsburgh, but the Vikings play the Browns in London
next week and Week five. Teams that stay overseas have
a massive advantage. The Jags are the only team to
have done it to go back to back overseas. They
are two and oh straight up two and oh against
(20:39):
the spread. You just mentioned getting waxed in games prior
and then turning right around because they stay there. So
perhaps I wish the Vikings were playing a better team
than Cleveland, where there we have a tighter number, because
they're going to be pretty heavy favorites against the Browns,
But I would still look early on at targeting the
Vikings in week five. That's probably the best. I know
we're talking about week four, but I think the best
(20:59):
angle to look at here is Vikings week five.
Speaker 2 (21:02):
One n not even a question in my mind depending
do we have a number on that already for.
Speaker 1 (21:07):
The Vikings Browns.
Speaker 3 (21:08):
It looks like it's six and a half seven right now.
Speaker 1 (21:11):
I don't. I mean, it's not gonna it's not gonna
get much lower than that. If the Browns would have
to beat the Lions. I don't see them going back
to back like that against the AFC North.
Speaker 4 (21:21):
The Vikings going back. I'm not laying seven with JJ McCarry.
I mean, I don't think I want to like seven
with JJ McCarthy, wor cars some wentz but uh, that
sounds like a PA against that Browns front.
Speaker 3 (21:32):
That'll be a no go from me. Big dogs.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
Yeah, I wish they I wish they were playing a
team that was good enough to where the Vikings would
be a dog. We'd be all over the Minnesota Vikings
in that spot. Haf Tough looks, yes, exactly. The injuries
are piling up, folks. Nick Bosa done for the year.
He's out San Francisco, he's got an ACL injury. Ceed
Lamb is out multiple weeks. He's definitely gonna miss against
(21:56):
the Green Bay Packers. Jerry Jones is talking about putting
him on ir J.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
Crazy because he said that he could even potentially play
this week if he wanted to CD dead.
Speaker 1 (22:05):
Yeah, I mean that's a pretty big gap in.
Speaker 3 (22:10):
Fuck up God, I'm so sick of him.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
We've already seen that line moved pretty drastically. It was
five and a half, four and a half, five, somewhere
between four and five at open, but quickly got bet
up to Packers minus six. Right after the news came
out about Ceedee Lamb, it popped six and a half
and now you see sevens pretty much across the board.
James Connors also done with a severe ankle injury. He's
(22:34):
out for the year. Fire up Trey Benson Stock and
Najee Harris is done with an achilles. So I assume
as far as this goes, Nick Bosa would definitely move
a line. Ceedee Lamb feels like the most drastic of
all of these as far as where we would be
leaning towards one side or the other based on these
injuries that we see. I would have probably wanted to
(22:57):
be on Dallas this week against Green Bay, but I
don't think you can touch it without Ceedee Lamb Stucky.
We saw what that looked like when he left the game.
The team could have moved the ball consistently.
Speaker 4 (23:07):
Yeah, it's tough. I mean, it's still get seven. We're
getting up there, it's getting I mean, I could not
be at the Packers. It's only the Cowboys at that price.
But that was that was one of their biggest advents. Like,
their biggest strengths of their team is their wide receiver room,
and their offense is going to have to make up
for their defense which is atrocious. Uh so again, you're
getting the Packers salty off of the loss Parsons revenge game. Sure,
(23:30):
he's going to be firing out of a canon.
Speaker 1 (23:32):
So do we have Parsons Yeah, yeah, probably Yeah, over
that's going to be at least minus two hundred.
Speaker 4 (23:45):
Everyone's going to be bad minus eight minus eight hundred
for over a one and a half sacks. But yeah,
the Bosa one's big. The forty nine ers are stars
and scrubs team.
Speaker 3 (23:56):
Like, yeah, I want to talk about that game.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
Because obviously we don't have the news about Mac Jones
and brought Party. Yet it's sitting at the Jags getting
three and a half. Do we think that this value
is going to get any better or any worse, because
obviously Party was pretty close to allegedly.
Speaker 3 (24:09):
Being back this week.
Speaker 2 (24:10):
I think that if he plays, obviously this number gets
better if you like the Jags, But I think that
we probably if you have any likes or Leans, this
is maybe where you have to make some value decisions
and make them quickly, especially with both out.
Speaker 1 (24:25):
I'm sitting this conversation out because this is my plant
the flag game.
Speaker 4 (24:28):
So yeah, I would think it goes to three if
if it's Mac Jones, and then it ticks back up
to four four and a half if it's Party. I
could be wrong, but the both laws is big. Like
that defense, all the attention that he draws then opens
(24:49):
up things for your other pass rushers, So the trickle
down effect is no longer there because overall, if you
look at this defense, it's not an overly talented unit.
And uh so, yeah, I think that the the Jacks
are definitely gonna benefit from that. So we'll see, we'll
we'll talk more about that on Brandon's plays by game.
(25:10):
But yeah, the Bosa and the lamb Ones are obviously
pretty big. That James Connord's unfortunate, but I don't think
it really impacts the Cardinals that much. They have they
have good running back death and it's it's still at
the end of the day, it's a running back, so
that's not that's not too impactful other than just impacting
your depth. But yeah, Cowboys are in trouble if Lamb
(25:30):
is out long term because I think the coming into
the year is like Lamb and Parsons, let's rely on
the rights. We don't have.
Speaker 1 (25:37):
Either exactly now, it's all it's all on Dak and
a resurgent Ravante Williams. I think the Packers are a
great teaser. Leg I already took them down to half
a point and the and I paired that with the
Denver Broncos on Monday Night down to a point against
the Cincinnati Bengals bod Nicks. As a teaser, leg has
(25:58):
been I think he's been the most profitable Caeser candidate
over the last year.
Speaker 4 (26:05):
So the defense.
Speaker 1 (26:12):
Right, yeah, I mean that's why you have to buy
the points with if you're gonna bet bo Nicks. So
let's take a look at the ATS standings report as
it stands right now, only two three and oh teams
remain against the spread, the Indianapolis Colts and the LA Chargers.
The Chargers one is debatable because that line sat at
two and a half. I think it hit a three
at some point before kickoff. Unfortunately I was impatient enough
(26:35):
on that and I took the l on the Denver Broncos.
Speaking of bo Nicks by the points, ladies and gentlemen,
But the Saints, Broncos and Texans are the only three
not to cover the number yet. The big question of
all of this is is it time finally to fade
the Indianapolis Colts. They finally play a real football team
(26:56):
in the LA Rams this week. Waiting for this opportunity,
but am this team is impressive? So is anybody willing
to do it to fade the Indianapolis Colts is an
undefeated ATS team.
Speaker 2 (27:09):
I think I potentially might get there just because the
Rams are healthy. Outside of if you want to consider
the Matthew Stafford back saying an issue which he's older,
I think it's something you definitely have to look at
But I do think that this is the week that
the Colts get got. I'm not going to say they're
going to turn back into a pumpkin, because I do
think that they're actually a legit team at this point.
Speaker 3 (27:31):
I don't know why I feel that way.
Speaker 2 (27:34):
I know when we first started this show, I was
talking about how they draft. Well, it's just been the
coaching not be able to put the pieces together for them.
But I just think that this Rams team is just
all class. They're as healthy as they can be. That
the healthiest they're going to be all season. The Rams
are legit, man. They were one of my favorite heading
into the season, one of my sleeper picks to you know,
make a deep playoff run.
Speaker 3 (27:53):
Not that that's really even a sleeper.
Speaker 2 (27:54):
It's just the NFC's not you know, the the NFC
is not the AFC right now. A couple of years ago,
you would have gotten me to say otherwise.
Speaker 3 (28:02):
But I don't know.
Speaker 2 (28:05):
They haven't played any great opponents so far. Their their
game this week was just a heartbreaker.
Speaker 4 (28:12):
I'll see. I'm curious how they bounced back after that.
But uh yeah, I would love a three. That's what
I'm hoping. There's a lot of Colts love in the market,
and we can at some point get to three. That's
what I'll be waiting for all week. They might get
a Vealo back so they could be one hundred percent
healthy this week. But yeah, I've been impressed with the Colts,
(28:32):
especially against the Broncos at home in that defense, because
like the Broncos, the Rams can get pressure and Daniel
Jones historically struggled against pressure, but against the Broncos they
were able to move it and they carved up that defense.
But yeah, if we can get if I can get
a three, I would I'm definitely in on the Rams here.
But uh, because we have to keep in mind the Colts.
(28:55):
It's again, it's only three games, and two of them
have come against the Titans five starters out and the Dolphins,
who didn't even get off the bus in Week one,
and then their one win came against the Broncos because
of a leaping penalty. By the way, you could have
called it on on the Eagles on that field goal block,
but of course they didn't. So they could easily be
(29:16):
one too and one still looking good, but the conversation
would be a lot different that they're two and one
with wins over the Texans. Excuse me, the Titans and
the Dolphins, who have yet to win a game. And yeah,
the Titans, by the way, are just I don't even
(29:36):
want to talk about that game. They're three and seventeen
against the spread over the past twenty.
Speaker 1 (29:40):
I bet them. I'll talk at the seven and a half.
I'm not even going to suggest it, but but the.
Speaker 4 (29:47):
Number seven and a half, it's them or nothing, just
because the Texans bid don't deserve to be laying seven
and a half.
Speaker 1 (29:54):
That's exactly anyone exactly, it's a bet against the Texans
and unfortunately the Titans of side on the other side
of it.
Speaker 3 (30:02):
You might be right. I hate to say it, but
it's a divisional game.
Speaker 1 (30:07):
The Texans have been terrible laying seven seven and a
get and I got it at minus one ten. That
number is gone now, which does make me feel good
about the wager, at least at this juncture in the week.
I'm sure I'll feel differently when we're into the second
quarter on Sunday, but I feel like it was a
bet that that had to be made.
Speaker 4 (30:27):
Now I'll get I think I'm going eleven bet and
Titans games when I beat the close over the last
two years, sometimes by like three points. So the Titans,
we'll find a way. The Callahan, he's just he's gotta go.
Did you hear the fire Callahan? Chance and the stands
at oh yeah, end of the half?
Speaker 1 (30:45):
Really he might beat Mike McDaniel to the bunch, who knows.
Speaker 3 (30:49):
Yeah. Can we talk about how dumb that c J.
Speaker 2 (30:52):
Stroud and Kayleb Williams conversation looks like after their game
when he goes up to him and he's like, you know,
fix your mistakes.
Speaker 3 (30:58):
This this league's two hard blah blah blah blah blah.
Speaker 1 (31:01):
CJ.
Speaker 2 (31:01):
Stroud giving Kleb Williams all this advice and it's like,
you look real dumb.
Speaker 3 (31:05):
Now, you look real dumb right now?
Speaker 4 (31:08):
Yeah, Stroud's gotta he's got to figure it out. But
he's getting no help around him.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
He's becoming more and more unlikable to me. His rookie season,
I like loved him and I hate the Texans more
than any other team or fan base, but he is
becoming more and more unlikable rather quickly, in my opinion.
Speaker 1 (31:24):
Yeah, he's uh, he's not handling the losing press conference
well to this point. By the way, I have a
damning stat on the Indianapolis Colts. This will make you
want to fade them quickly. This is uh. I found
a graph on how often do NFL defenses allow a
new series of downs? The dead last team in the
NFL is the Indianapolis Colt seventy eight percent of the
(31:45):
time their defense allows a new series of downs. The
best team in the NFL is the Green Bay Packers,
the Vikings, the Chargers, the Broncos. Just for a frame
of reference, those are the best defenses in the league.
The Colts are dead last. And look who they've played.
I do wonder if some of that is just because
they've been blowing some teams out and garbage time maybe
(32:06):
has baked into that a little bit. But still that
they're down there with the Cowboys, Bengals, Dolphins, and Steelers,
and this is an undefeated team that's also spread.
Speaker 4 (32:16):
You're not getting any pressure. That's bad. I mean the
Titans were moving the ball on them a bit. That
Broncos shredded them. You can't get trigded by the Broncos offense.
And the Dolphins were just they were in a daze.
But yeah, their defense isn't great. It's better because it's
not Gus Bradley, but it's still not an elite unit
for sure. So their offense has to keep up this pace.
Speaker 1 (32:39):
So I flashed the bat signal early this morning because
I saw this line out there for the Bills and
the Saints. It's up to sixteen and a half, and
I thought, how often do you see a number that
big this early on in the season. So we're talking
about the September really early October portion of the season.
And I look back, I did my own research, couldn't
(33:02):
find anything but through the bat signal up there, and
Evan Abrams hit me back with this one. The biggest
Week one through four spread that we have seen is
this one. Bills favored by sixteen and a half since
twenty twenty one. It was also a Bills game at
home against the Houston Texans where the Bills were favored
(33:22):
by seventeen. They won that game forty to zero. This
is also the largest the Saints have been an underdog
since nineteen seventy five, which is shocking to me because
they've had some bad teams since nineteen seventy five. Anybody
willing to lay the lay the lumber on the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 3 (33:40):
Absolutely not no.
Speaker 4 (33:42):
Not only sixteen and a half an NFL game, although
I think historically favorites of over two touchdowns. Heaven can
correct us, correct me if wrong. I think they're like
five hundred against the spread, but Josh Allen is six
nine and two against the spread when favored by more
than ten. We just saw them favored by eleven and
a half at home against the Dolphins, and Dolphins easily covered. Like,
if this gets the seventeen, I might have to think
(34:03):
about the Saints. The Saints weren't that bad last week,
like their special teams were disaster, but like success right yards,
they were pretty even with the Seahawks, and they looked
like functional. And this Bills team is not the team
that you want to lay seventeen with in this spot.
Like they're they're gonna they're gonna take the air out
of the ball, They're gonna run it a ton, they're
gonna kill clock.
Speaker 3 (34:24):
Yeah, stay healthy.
Speaker 4 (34:25):
You're not gonna run Allen, So yeah, no, thanks.
Speaker 3 (34:29):
Stay healthy, kill clock.
Speaker 2 (34:30):
Is there any team right now in the NFL that's
like an absolute world beater to you, guys? I know
that the conversation was the Packers last week, Like, I
don't think anybody is like a bona fide favorite right now,
everybody's flawed.
Speaker 1 (34:41):
Well I would agree with that, Yeah, Bills.
Speaker 4 (34:45):
I think pat Packers might be the best team in
the NFC when they're healthy, like they're Offen's a lot
got dominated last week because of their injuries, but uh
that they're not like head and shoulders above everyone else.
I think the Ravens are the best team they see
when they're fully healthy, but they're beatable mark games.
Speaker 3 (35:02):
I don't know what it is.
Speaker 4 (35:03):
It's a lot of parody in the NFL, but for
for what, it's where dogs off off a thirty point
plus loss, Like who wants to bet an underdog which
means they're playing a better team after a thirty plus
point loss. One hundred and fifteen seventy seven and eight
against the spread over the past twenty five years, that's
sixty percent. This week you got three of them. Yeah,
(35:24):
the Saints, the Falcons, and the Bengals. So historically it's
been a good bet. Teams off a thirty point plus
point loss bet them the next week.
Speaker 1 (35:32):
Because I am softening, I'm softening a little bit on
the on the Falcons idea the other two.
Speaker 3 (35:37):
I thought we were in bet jail with the Falcons.
Speaker 1 (35:39):
Well, I just said, I'm softening. They're still behind. They're
still behind.
Speaker 4 (35:43):
The I played Falcons rails.
Speaker 3 (35:45):
Whatever you want to tell you about.
Speaker 4 (35:47):
Bet jail, that's the time the bettle.
Speaker 3 (35:48):
Besides, I'm in lad Maconkee bet jail.
Speaker 2 (35:50):
But I'm going to tell you guys, he's going to
score this week. If you faded me last week, this
is your time. I'm gonna preface this. I'm going to
be so he he haha, silly with my picks this week.
When we finally roll around to Thursday, I'm just letting
you guys know I am going off the rails.
Speaker 1 (36:10):
It's already that time of the year.
Speaker 3 (36:12):
That's my tease. I'm going to be insane.
Speaker 1 (36:17):
The Evan has shared the stat fifty so favorites of
over fourteen points fifty three, fifty two and three against
the spread and essential coin flip. So we are all
staying away from Okay, I don't hate that, leve. Let's
(36:37):
talk to the professor of pickles here, Kendra Middleton. What
is the game that has you all torn up your
pickle game of the week.
Speaker 2 (36:45):
You already know that it's going to be the battle
of the p words. It's the Panthers and the Patriots.
I with the way that the number is looking, I
get that the Panthers are not a thirty point, shutout
win team against absolutely anybody, But I think they're finding
their rhythm right now. I all right, do what is
(37:06):
going on with Christian Gonzales?
Speaker 1 (37:08):
You tell us that's your John?
Speaker 3 (37:11):
I know, I do. I think that. Do they sit
in this?
Speaker 2 (37:14):
Okay, here's my thing, and I'm between this like everybody else.
I told you guys that the local media is kind
of saying that they are thinking.
Speaker 3 (37:21):
That it's going to be the Bills game.
Speaker 2 (37:23):
If you're a head coach, which obviously none of us are,
unless you guys coach like high school or something that
I don't know about, would you rather start Christian Gonzalez
in a game against the Panthers to maybe let him
warm up take you know, twenty thirty percent of the
reps on defense, or would you rather just let him
sit one more week and throw him out there against Buffalo.
Speaker 4 (37:43):
Yeah, I'd rather come back this week, especially the Patriots.
You can't you want to get him into the next
before how much stuffer opponent.
Speaker 1 (37:52):
Absolutely, And it's not like anybody's all push over to
the New England Patriots. They can't look at their schedule
that way.
Speaker 2 (37:58):
I just I say, I think that this number is
too big for a Patriot Crazy that sucks.
Speaker 3 (38:04):
I think that I have to back the sad Cats.
Speaker 1 (38:07):
You guys, I don't understand what's happening. So I do
my own numbers just to you know, get a framework
of what we're looking at for the week. And this
is the most off market game for me. I have.
The Patriots is a one point favorite, So I don't
know one.
Speaker 4 (38:24):
Of my look at those numbers.
Speaker 1 (38:26):
Well exactly like I don't. Everything else is sort of
where it should be. You know, we're in range that one.
I don't know where I have gone astray with this
or what I'm missing, but I'm it's too off for
me to bet it because obviously I need to get
back in the lab with that. But this Patriots team
(38:47):
should not be a five and a half point favorite,
just common sense wise. And then the numbers, it's something And.
Speaker 2 (38:52):
If Gonzales comes back, that number is probably only gonna
get better.
Speaker 4 (38:56):
Yeah, yeah, it's gonna go up. To six six and
a half this week. I bet the Patriots if you're in,
If you're curious, dogs underdogs that just won a game
by a shutout are thirty five percent against the spread. Historically,
the Panthers still stink. Penicks just had a game where
he was awful and he couldn't complete a pass. Like
(39:18):
they didn't do anything. They were just playing their basic
cover three Ay. Penis just could couldn't read the defense.
There was miscommunication issues. I mean, the Panthers got out
game by one hundred yards. Their defense still stinks. They
have offensive line injuries. The Patriots are going to dominate
them up front. They're not able to run the ball,
especially if they get Gonzales back. How are they moving
the ball? I don't know. The Patriots don't have a
problem moving the ball. They moved the ball half They
(39:40):
moved all every single game this year, up and down
the field, like last last week. They played that game
nine out of ten times. They beat the Steelers by
twenty if they don't fumble, they turned it over five times.
They fumbled the goal line twice. So and this this
Panther's defense is wretched. That one game doesn't change my
thoughts on that their offensive line was supposed to be
(40:02):
their strength, is now missing multiple starters. The loss of
Hunt is huge, and the Patriots front has been really good,
so they're not going to run it, and then Young
will be under pressure. It's probably gonna make mistakes. So yeah,
I like the Patriots. I like the Patriots went by
margin this week. Not my plant the flag game, but uh,
I am.
Speaker 1 (40:20):
On if if the Panthers cover this with the ease,
I'm never doubting my power ratings again, but for right now,
I'm gonna doubt my power ratings.
Speaker 3 (40:27):
Rabel doesn't lose games like this.
Speaker 2 (40:29):
I'll say that like to bad teams, Like I get
that the Steelers were they're not a good team, but
they're not the Panthers.
Speaker 3 (40:36):
That's the only lean.
Speaker 2 (40:37):
That I have in this game Patriots wise, is that
Rabel beats bad teams.
Speaker 4 (40:42):
Even though he was the Patriots worse than the Panthers.
That's insane.
Speaker 3 (40:46):
I don't know. I don't have the Patriots worse.
Speaker 4 (40:51):
I'm talking with Brandon has one point spread. That's it kind.
Speaker 3 (40:56):
Of looks like as we're due.
Speaker 2 (40:57):
The tarketingste digs at.
Speaker 1 (41:00):
All, I have the Panthers is one point better than
the New England Patriots.
Speaker 4 (41:05):
That's insane in market. The I mean even going in that.
Speaker 1 (41:09):
That's without a home field or anything like any any
other factors, just power ratings wise.
Speaker 4 (41:14):
It's the more in market. Do you think you even
going in the last week there, it's it's like a
four and a half point difference. Uh, Brabel is twenty
eight and eleven straight up against teams under five hundred
to teams.
Speaker 3 (41:26):
That's one thing I will give him.
Speaker 4 (41:29):
Hire playing Where are we planting our flags?
Speaker 1 (41:31):
Yeah, we're planting the flag. Okay, I'm gonna get it started.
Forty nine ers minus three and a half already kind
of teased this one. I got a minus one oh five,
this might touch three. I'm gonna take the gamble here
that Purty plays will see this number tick up by
a couple of points. But it's a fade against the Jags.
They've got wins over the Panthers, who I'm clearly off on,
(41:51):
and the uh in the Houston Texans.
Speaker 4 (41:54):
And how good the Panthers are.
Speaker 1 (41:56):
No, no, no, I'm not that's a good win yet.
Speaker 2 (42:00):
Us.
Speaker 4 (42:00):
If I say Champs are better than the Patriots and you.
Speaker 1 (42:03):
Like them, yeah, my numbers are not gospel.
Speaker 3 (42:10):
Today.
Speaker 1 (42:11):
I'm going back to the lab on the on the
Panthers because I think narrative, I think, yeah, well that's
definitely true. But I I think I think I've overrated them.
The I don't make the numbers off of subjectivity. This
is a formula, and clearly the formula has overrated a
thirty point win. Besides that, the Jags defense has been great,
(42:32):
but this is gonna be their biggest test of the season.
They ring second to last in receiving grade. Big shocker there,
and then dead last and special teams. We see how
important special teams are early on in the season. A
chance that party plays in this number ticking up. I'm
going to plant the flag on the forty nine ers now,
and I'm even willing to lay the hook at three
and a half.
Speaker 3 (42:50):
I'll tell you, the forty nine ers have had the
Jags number for years and years. So I am flying
across the country for this.
Speaker 5 (42:57):
But I don't hate it.
Speaker 4 (42:59):
I don't think I like three and a half with
this for you talk about the Jags. Resume the forty
nine ers or three and oh they have wins over
Seattle and a coin flip game, New Orleans in a
coin flip game, and then Arizona in a game they
probably should have lost.
Speaker 1 (43:14):
So like, that's looking pretty good.
Speaker 4 (43:17):
I'm not They've won by four, five and one, so like,
this isn't a team that I And now there's no Bosa,
so I'll be curious today. Might maybe they get Party
and maybe they get Jennings back?
Speaker 3 (43:29):
Can I say something crazy?
Speaker 4 (43:30):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (43:31):
I think I like them more if Mac Jones is playing.
Speaker 4 (43:34):
Well, if you get a three, you might get a
three and next.
Speaker 2 (43:36):
No, I think that they're more likely to win this game.
If Mac is playing just because Party's hurt.
Speaker 1 (43:41):
Maxim might not.
Speaker 4 (43:43):
He might drive off the driving Max.
Speaker 2 (43:45):
Been playing lights out, a revenge game from him against
his hometown.
Speaker 3 (43:49):
Like, what are we even doing here?
Speaker 1 (43:52):
I mean, obviously, I'm still I'm still comfortable with I'm
so comfortable with the forty nine ers. If Jones plays,
I'd rather have pretty out there. I think we're forgetting
how good.
Speaker 3 (44:03):
Even with like the claw toe?
Speaker 4 (44:05):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (44:07):
No, no, all right to McGee over.
Speaker 1 (44:09):
Here, what about you, Kendrew? Where you plainting the flag?
Speaker 3 (44:12):
You alluded to it teased a little bit. I'm going
with the Seahawks.
Speaker 1 (44:16):
This line is wrong.
Speaker 2 (44:18):
The Seahawks are it's Seahawks are nothing for me this
week probably going to be my biggest play.
Speaker 3 (44:22):
The Cardinals are bad. People are sleeping on the Seahawks.
Speaker 2 (44:25):
Yes, they lost to the forty nine Ers, but they
were still healthy, as healthy as they were going to
be at that point for the season. Beat the bag
out of the Steelers, beat the bag out of the Saints.
Steelers and Saints both bad. But I think that the
Saints and the Steelers are both equivalent to the Cardinals.
Cardinals got injury issues. Seahawks are better than people are
giving them credit for. I think that this is a
real team to reckon without West. I'm going with the
(44:45):
Seahawks this week, no questions asked.
Speaker 1 (44:48):
Yeah, great teaser leg too, Let them kick them up
to us lot.
Speaker 4 (44:53):
Just people listening on Thursdays. There's a lot of injuries
that look for both sides, Cardinals secondary, Seahawks secondary. There's
a couple others too, so keep your eye out there.
Because the Seahawks a bunch of their defenders didn't play
on Sunday, and then the Cardinals as well, so we'll
(45:14):
see who goes. It seems like an over reaction. I mean,
coming into the year that we've all said, like we're
out on the Seahawks. People were saying the Cardinals are
a sleeper, and like, if you look at their resumes,
like they've they've pretty much played to what we expected.
But should should be a good one on Thursday night.
Injuries are gonna be big to watching the secondaries there,
I'll I'll play my flag on the only game I've
(45:35):
played so far, I've played the Falcons, but that there's
probably no threes left? Are there any threes left? I
doubt it?
Speaker 3 (45:42):
Just two and a half.
Speaker 4 (45:43):
Yeah, I still would play the Falcons at two and
a half, but obviously not as big. But I mean
the calendar. Who knows if Daniel's gonna play, who knows
how healthy is I don't like this Commander team this
year anyway, but they have their entire secondary got hurt
last week. McLaurin got hurt. They lost. I think they
have like four or five starters on IR they started.
They signed Darnell Savage, just got cut by the Jaguars
(46:04):
and he's probably gonna start for them. Lattimore looks washed.
Speaker 3 (46:08):
I think Savage sucks.
Speaker 4 (46:10):
This is the trifecta. It was a team off of
the Falcons had a misleading box score loss. They are
off of a shutout teams and then they were off
of a thirty point loss. So underdogs off of a
after getting shut out sixty two percent historically dogs off
a thirty plus point loss sixty percent historically huge sample size.
(46:34):
So but I'll plan my flag on the Bengals plus
seven and a half. Still some seven and a half's
out there. I think minus one fifteen the look we
said last week, and the Bengals, by the way, fit
this off of a dog off a thirty plus point loss.
We said last week that I made the difference between
(46:56):
uh and this is one of the reasons I kind
of liked the Vikings. I did end up playing it,
but I made the difference between and Browning five points.
Markets seemed to have made it like three to three
and a half four. I thought that was too short.
It looks like I was probably right. It's probably closer
to five five and a half points. Okay, Well, coming
into the year, you can go back to Week sixteen
last year when these two teams played. The Bengals defense
(47:17):
still awful. Burrow was playing the Bengals need both teams
needed the game we're trying. The Bengals are three and
a half point favorites at home, so the power ratings lives.
Coming into the year, I had the Bengals as the
better team when fully healthy. We've seen how bad bon
Nicks has been, so I made this game before. If
(47:39):
everyone was at full strength in Denver respect the home
field be like Denver'd be like close to a pick
Denver minus won at most. So let's adjust for the
drop between Burrow and Browning. I can't get to over seven,
can't get to seven, so you're gonna give me over seven.
I'm gonna take it there. So I get that it's
(48:02):
scary playing Browning after another defense and get pressure. Maybe
makes a ton of mistakes again, but Knicks could too,
So I'll plan my flag on I don't think you're
going to see us seven and a half for much
of the week leading up into game time, so I'll
plan my flag on the Bengals plus seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (48:20):
All right, Kendrin's on Seattle plus one and a half,
Stucky's got the Bengals plus seven and a half, and
I am on the forty nine Ers minus three and
a half against the Jaguars. Time now for the main
event of our Tuesday episode. No betting week can start
without it. The primer courtesy of Evan Abrams. Evan, welcome
to the show. What trends are we looking at before
we fire away on the Apps this week?
Speaker 6 (48:43):
Well, so, guys, honestly, I feel like and Stucky talks
about this all the time, and I'm start sorry to
keep bringing this up, but the Titans, the numbers are
just stupid, and I feel like it's worth noting how
bad the ATS stuff has gotten with them. So Stucky
mentioned the three and seventeen ats plus twenty six, six,
twenty three and one ats last thirty seven, twenty five
(49:04):
and one last thirty three and losing ten straight ats
at home, which not this week but we'll deal with
in a week or two.
Speaker 5 (49:12):
Just absolutely insane. I feel like the other story lost.
Speaker 4 (49:15):
Seventeen of our twenty game stretch the worst ever, Evan.
Speaker 5 (49:19):
I was gonna look at that.
Speaker 6 (49:20):
I've had trouble with spends, but when I had some time,
it was going to be the next thing on my mind.
Speaker 5 (49:26):
So I will get back to on that one. But
I feel like someone has done that before.
Speaker 4 (49:30):
A Browns team from like the mid two.
Speaker 5 (49:33):
Thousands something like that. But I feel like it's been done.
Speaker 6 (49:37):
But the stretch in itself is just stupid, especially when
you consider the quarterback play.
Speaker 5 (49:42):
The Mahome stuff this week is just a lot of fun.
Speaker 6 (49:44):
So you guys are talking about the three point line,
it looks like Baltimore is getting minus two and a
half minus one twenty, so that plus three might be coming,
and that would be the largest home dog he has
been since Texas Tech. It was Shane Buckle, which was
Texas's quarterback back in November of twenty sixteen, the last
time he was plus Yeah, thank you, Stuck. I feel
(50:07):
like you were going to do that for me and
I appreciate it. Here's the best one. And I actually
just finished looking this up. So he's actually never won
as a home dog oh and nine and two in
the pros oh in seven of Texas Tech, so this
would be the first time he's ever won as a
home underdog. And the funny thing ish and two straight
up as a home dog, fifty five and twelve as
(50:27):
a favorite, So maybe something to look at there. The
only thing that I think is fun when Mahomes is
either an underdog or a favorite of blessed that a
field goal at home. He is just four and five
straight up. So in these tight games, Lamar Josh, there
might even be a Tom in there difficult opponents. So
I felt that one was kind of interesting. I'll give
(50:48):
you one more.
Speaker 5 (50:50):
Dak Prescott.
Speaker 6 (50:50):
So that line is up to seven now at at CD, lamb.
This would be tied for his biggest home underdog in
his career. Twenty eighteen against the Saints and Drew Brees
was the last time he was plus seven or higher
at home.
Speaker 5 (51:03):
So interesting line there is. It's gone up a few
points with that CD.
Speaker 1 (51:09):
Is there anything This might be obscure, but the Bucks
have won three straight games on game ending drives to
seal the victory luck alone, I mean, is there any
do we have anything awful?
Speaker 4 (51:23):
Teams?
Speaker 5 (51:24):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (51:24):
On on doing what you do in the fourth game.
After doing that three in a row, it just feels
so unique in what the Bucks have done to get
to three and oh.
Speaker 5 (51:33):
I'll give you this one.
Speaker 6 (51:34):
So Bucks are the second team in the Wild carder
to start three and oh with three fourth quarter comebacks.
The most ironic thing about this run the Bucks are
also zero and three against the fourth quarter spread, So
they've not only made the comeback and done the job,
but they actually haven't covered in their fourth quarter spreads
because of the chaos on the other side. So the
(51:55):
only other team in the wildcard area since nineteen ninety
to do the three and oh with fourth quarter comebacks
Falcons in twenty fifteen. They ended eight and eight six
and ten against the spread and sucked. So this actually
might just be a fluke. But again, one team, guys,
I mean, nothing like that can be you know, taken
two seriously, But I will say this. Dampa was thirteen
(52:17):
and four fourth quarter spread last season, so this feels
like just something in Baker's blood.
Speaker 4 (52:23):
Yeah, Baker has definitely clutched in the games, and to
be fair, they have a ton of offensive line injuries
and they're surriving, but two of the wins came against
the Jets and the Texans in the last second, which
doesn't look great. But their offensive line is in shambles
and they're three now, so you can't complain too much.
(52:44):
And that the Eagles have been extremely lucky too, so
these are this is a luckbox Bowl.
Speaker 1 (52:49):
Heavn't you have anything on the rapture?
Speaker 2 (52:52):
Yeah? I do.
Speaker 6 (52:54):
I mean Giants and Jets at home, I mean in
primetime again this week. It feels like the raptor has
something to do with that. I put this out five
and thirty four Giants and Jets and night games. We
get the Jets again this week. But maybe the other
side of the rapture is the fact that they have
to play the Dolphins. Like, maybe that's what the rapture
is is you kind of get this matchup and the
world just ends at halftime in that game, and.
Speaker 3 (53:16):
You're talking to us as God right now.
Speaker 2 (53:18):
If I get raptured, I'm letting you guys rock paper
scissors for OJ and Monica.
Speaker 1 (53:26):
Can't we just split custody, like I get one stuck
against another one?
Speaker 3 (53:29):
Well, yeah, but who wants to you get one pregnant
and one not.
Speaker 1 (53:34):
Yeah, I don't want all that responsibility. I'll take the
non impregnated shrimp on my way to heaven, I suppose you.
Speaker 4 (53:44):
Yeah, I already have a pregnant one in my house.
I got a dog. It's post surgery, so bring it on.
Speaker 6 (53:51):
Yeah, those shrimp possible bulls have to be terrible and
sell the out pass, all right.
Speaker 1 (53:56):
It sounds like my It sounds like the Dolphins first
half spread according to the Rapture Stats. Thanks so much, Evan,
that's going to do it for today's episode special thanks
to our producers David Paine and Gifford Gold. The Favorites
will return with our next episode on Thursday, right here
on the Action Network YouTube page, where we will talk
Week four bets and make our official plays for the week.
We'll see you next time here on the Favorites presented
(54:18):
by DraftKings. It's cash these tickets Happy Rapture.
Speaker 3 (54:29):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Welcome to the Favorites Podcast, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook, part
of the Action Network. Your Favorites Trio is back. I'm
Brandon Kravitz, joined by the wonderfully insightful and talented Stuckey
and Kendra Middleton. On today's episode, we've got our plant
the Flag game for week four? Who are we in
on early? A breakdown of the top storylines, and of
(00:32):
course the main event evans Tuesday primer. We cannot live
and breathe without it. An update for the schedule. This week,
we'll have our typical Thursday show where we lock in
our best bets. Our Three Musketeers parlay, which I am
hearing from production is losing its name because we haven't
landed on a winner just yet. But we have no
show Sunday night for a recap this week, but we
(00:55):
got you covered today and Thursday, and then of course
back at it next week. For five. Kendra is headed
to San Francisco. That's part of the reason we don't
have a Sunday night show. You're gonna see what could
be Mac Jones versus Trevor Lawrence. Who knows? But how
excited are you for your trip to the West Coast?
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Is it bad that I wanted to be brock Party,
even if that means that the Jags get their asspeed
just so I don't want to watch Mac Jones.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
Yeah, I figured that that might be the case.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
I would much rather even if I would rather lose
to the brock Party led forty nine Ers in a
horrible fashion once again, because every time I go walk
to the forty nine Ers and the Jaguars, that's what happens.
Then watch Mac Jones at all for any reason, especially
if he's going to beat them.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
So before we get into any football talk, I think
you might be the best person to help us out here.
I don't know, Stucky, how informed you are on the rapture,
but apparently that's happening today. My wife informs me of
this last night, and I thought, Okay, what am I
supposed to do with that? In from I haven't been
raptured yet. I also don't know exactly what that means,
(02:05):
so fill us in. I mean, you got the waxing
waning moon paid off last night with Jared Goff and
the Detroit Lions. So if there's some way I can
weave this into my Week four betting card, let me know.
But what am I looking at here? What does this mean?
What am I supposed to do with this?
Speaker 2 (02:22):
People were so mean to me on the internet about
my waxing carrescent moon take, and I would like to
tell all of you to suck me. Okay, it worked out,
and it worked out big time. Anytime there's a waxing
crescent moon and the lions are playing from now on,
that's my Jesus Christ.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
That is that is my bread and butter. That is
what is going on for me. However, I'll see you
guys tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
But allegedly the rapture is happening today. I think that
this is like the third rapture in my lifetime. People
are selling their cars, which, first of all, I don't
understand why so many people on the internet are selling
their things, Like if you're getting raptured, you don't need
the money, Like what are you going to do with
why are you selling your things? Just anyways, I watched
a ten minute breakdown that this girl did about what
(03:06):
to do when you're raptured. Apparently, don't grab onto things
in your house, don't touch things because it just prevents
you from being raptured when you do that. Don't look
down because you might get sick. You're supposed to just
look up to just.
Speaker 3 (03:18):
Go and whatever.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
There's people online who are like, I'm being raptured tomorrow,
and if I am not raptured, I will come online,
make an apology video, and get off of the internet forever.
Speaker 3 (03:29):
I guess like the signs of all of.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
This political crap going on that we're not supposed to
be talking about at our jobs is why people think
that the rapture is happening. Like I said, I'll see
you guys tomorrow. I'm pretty sure this is like the
third rapture of my lifetime. But people are selling all
of their shit. And I guess four o'clock today, if
you see people floating, it is the rapture stuck you
in on this.
Speaker 4 (03:52):
No, I don't have time for this nonsense. They this
is like the every year there's that this is the
end of the world. This is the real rapture will
come when if the Titans actually cover a game. But
I found a new obsession, and uh, it's this stuff.
Speaker 1 (04:13):
It's is that a candle think salt?
Speaker 4 (04:16):
I think it's pronounced nom pre pal could be mispronounced it,
but it's tie chili oil.
Speaker 3 (04:23):
And oh yeah, my friends.
Speaker 4 (04:24):
From Chicago brought this one for me this weekend. They
came to visit and like the sandwich shop by them
in Chicago puts it on all their breakfast sandwiches. Oh
my god. I made egg sandwiches on like fresh fresh
carved out roll the past two days and then just
drenched the role in this.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
It is, I'm a life hack for you, believable. I
do this with pesto too. Just take like a teaspoon
of it and put it in your pan and then
crack your egg in it, and the egg cooks in
that oil and it like some versus itself in it.
And that way you have like the spicy eggs for
your breakfast sandwiches and it doesn't drip off because the
egg cooked in it.
Speaker 3 (05:06):
It's so good.
Speaker 4 (05:07):
That's a good idea. I'll try that tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (05:10):
So look at it's called just Google. We're not we're
not sponsored by this. What do they want to sponsors?
I would, uh just google pink salt and then nom
n a m preak I think it's p r I
K and then pal p ao it's tye roasted chili jam. Oh,
it's like the best breakfast sandwich. I've ever had.
Speaker 1 (05:32):
This he's had, but we can't get him to try
Zaxby's sauce.
Speaker 3 (05:36):
Hey, he tried. Don't put that evil.
Speaker 4 (05:38):
I tried to do it. I blame that customer service.
That's a Chick fil A. Wouldn't have forgotten my sauce.
Chick fil A won the best chicken Sandwich. Did you
see that?
Speaker 3 (05:48):
That doesn't surprise me.
Speaker 1 (05:50):
Who is awarding this?
Speaker 4 (05:52):
The American Chicken Association. I don't even know if that's
the thing. Let's see, I just read it.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
Maybe we are being raptured.
Speaker 2 (06:04):
The Christian chicken sandwich got voted the best chicken sandwich,
and now they're never going to have another contest because
we're all going to be raptured.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
So one question I have to go back to the
rapture for a moment. We'll get to our picks in
a minute. Is do I is this like a crack
in the ground that you fall into or am.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
You don't up?
Speaker 1 (06:19):
Sucked up?
Speaker 3 (06:20):
You go up?
Speaker 1 (06:21):
Gotcha?
Speaker 3 (06:22):
That's why the girl was.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
Saying, you like, shouldn't look down like you just stare
up the whole time. Imagine getting raptured and getting like
motion sickness and just like throwing up right thing below.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
You doesn't sound that bad. I imagine you're going to
the You're you're going to the better place. That's the
idea of this.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
I guess if that's your idea of the better place,
I still want to smoke darts with Satan.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
Well, I mean, like, are you just going to the
moon or you? Is this like a spiritual thing?
Speaker 3 (06:50):
I don't know. I don't know.
Speaker 2 (06:51):
I grew up in the Southern Baptist Church and I
this is this is my third rapture and I still
don't know.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
Okay. Sponsored by Elon Musk and his news base cadets.
I guess all right, well, hey, what do you say
we move on to the main dish? Some news across
the league. One night night football was electric, twenty eight
points scored in the first half alone, sixty eight total.
The Lions win by eight on the road against Baltimore.
(07:18):
Four touchdowns for the Lions running backs to a piece
for Gibbs and David Montgomery. The props were propping last
night across the board. But is Derrick Henry broken? I
mean this is now two times this year where he
has not him alone. The defense has issues, but where
he has cost this team mightily with a big time fumble. Stucky,
(07:39):
you're a Ravens fan, how did you compute what happened
last night?
Speaker 4 (07:44):
Yeah? The Ravens just right now, they're not the same
team as they will be when they're fully healthy. They're
missing like number one. Their offense isn't humming as it
usually does. Is just not as efficient. There's still some
explosiveness still Lamar, but the guard are struggling for He's
really struggling, So the offensive line is not great. I
did think the Lions. I was really impressed with the
(08:06):
Lion's defensive game plan and how they rushed and spied Lamar.
It differed a lot from the first time these two
teams played two years ago. But they don't have Likely
in Ricard, and when they have Likely, it is that's
how they create so many mismatches and heavy formations. And
you have Likely and Andrews out there and then Ricard,
and then you can do so many things that teams
(08:28):
aren't used to seeing. And they might get Likely back
but this week, but they just aren't full strength, and
their offensive line in the interior of both guard positions
is really struggling, which you're seeing on just the drive
by drive efficiency basis. And on the defensive end, they
(08:48):
really miss Matabuke in the middle like they've been they
have allowed going into last night. It's gonna get worse
now they've allowed two yards more per carry without him
on the field. He's also their best interior pass rusher.
So those are the those that's how you beat the Lions.
(09:09):
You get interior pressure. The Ravens can't really get interior
pressure now with that Madibuque, and their run defense is
much worse. You saw that throughout the night. So the
Ravens have to get a lot healthier because they're missing
that key cog in the middle of their defense who
does so much, not only on against the run, but
on late downs and then on offense. They just don't
have their full complement of weapons in addition to the
(09:32):
offensive line struggling. So yeah, it's a Ravens team that
sets far from peak right now. So impressive roadwin for
the for the Lions.
Speaker 3 (09:39):
My big issue has Henry broken.
Speaker 4 (09:41):
I mean it's probably just fluky, but it's crazy that
it's happenings.
Speaker 3 (09:47):
Three in a row.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
Yeah, and that's just not He's not a running back
that fumbles, so it is a question of is he broken.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
I think my big issue last night was just Todd
Monkin in general. I don't think that it was the
best game for him.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
I think that they've definitely got away from their bread
and butter and what we as consumers and fans know
to be Ravens football over the last twenty five years,
and Lamar Jackson just it looked like he was trying
not to run or be traditional Lamar Jackson last night.
He took way too long to look downfield, way too
long to make decisions, held onto the ball way too long.
(10:19):
There were times where I was screaming at my TV,
just go just run, just be Lamar Jackson, be that
guy stopped looking downfield.
Speaker 3 (10:26):
It just it felt like Todd Monkin.
Speaker 2 (10:27):
Got away from the football that we know that the
Ravens play, and that was their biggest issue. There were
times I was genuinely screaming at Lamar through my TV.
Speaker 3 (10:35):
And they just they passed way too much.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
I get that Derrick Henry has been having you know,
fumble problems, but he despite that, he's still been the
Derrick Henry that we know that man does not age
and Lamar, you are the best dual threat quarterback in
the league. Use your legs when it looks like you
need to run, run, you know better than anybody else.
Speaker 3 (10:54):
Just it felt like they got.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
Away from what we know Raven's football to be and
that it was them shooting them the foot. I can
take the injury thing, I get that, but they were
in that game from start to finish, and there's nobody
to blame but themselves for that loss.
Speaker 3 (11:08):
The Lions played lights out. Their run game gave them fits.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
The defense absolutely did their job. It was at six
sacks seven sacks at the end of the night.
Speaker 3 (11:14):
Seven did their job.
Speaker 2 (11:16):
But still they were in that game and there was
no excuse other than themselves on offense shooting themselves in
the foot.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
Eighty that it makes. He makes such a big difference
on that Lion's defense. But I mean, Lamar passing wise
was terrific. But in terms of actually managing the game,
we got Mark Andrews back involved. He had a total
of seven yards entering last night, ends up in ninety
six and two touchdowns. One of those was just kind
of garbage time at the end of the game. But
(11:48):
I don't want to get too far ahead here, but
we are very much a show and a peoples of
looking ahead, not behind. I always want to do a
quick recap, especially when you have a game that's that exciting.
But this is about what's next. The Ravens have a
big one on Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs. They
are road favorites against the Chiefs team. That wall was
(12:08):
against the Giants. Feels like they found themselves at least
slightly on offense. Mahomes deep ball was cooking again early
Reid Kendra on that game, have you placed any bets
on it? What are you thinking? Early on? I want
to be on the Chiefs, but I hate fading a
Ravens team off of a loss like this.
Speaker 2 (12:27):
I was gonna say, I know, you guys love the
angle of a Mahomes like home dog, whatever situation. But
I'm probably going to be on the Ravens once again
this week just because once they're coming off of a loss,
I don't really care that they're on the road. I
hate to feed them in that situation. But it's more
so just I'm watching this Chiefs team and I think
that they suck the Giants. They didn't beat the Giants
(12:48):
the Giants beat the Giants, Okay, like Russell Wilson hot
garbage ass Okay, this has to be the We can
talk about the Giants later, but it has to be
Jackson start from here. But it's just the Ravens coming
off of this loss. I think they're gonna be out
for blood. I don't think Derek Henry can fumble four
games in a row.
Speaker 3 (13:07):
The Chiefs don't look good. They don't look like the
Chiefs we know them to be.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
I'm out on the Patrick Mahomes home dog. The Chiefs
are injured, Sure, the Ravens are also injured, but that
team is just so much more depth across the board.
Speaker 3 (13:21):
I can't.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
The Chiefs are just not themselves and I'm not going
to back them until they convince me that they are
the team that they have been for the last five, six,
seven years. And the Ravens can be and I think
that they are more likely to fix their issues in
this scenario than the Chiefs not even being able to
really beat the Giants. How I would like them to
beat the Giants for me to be convinced to put
(13:42):
my hard earned dollar on them this week.
Speaker 1 (13:44):
Stucky. If the Chiefs can run the football, which they
haven't been great at this year against this Ravens team,
and Mahomes feels comfortable. That is the Mahomes Chiefs dog
that I want to be in on. We know the
defense is going to show up. I'm kind of stuck
in the middle here. Where do you stand early on
on this game?
Speaker 4 (14:04):
No, I want no interest of the Chiefs. I mean
I thought the Chiefs looked awful again. I mean, look,
they have the average savage four yards per play against
the Giants. The Giants and the Chiefs both average four
yards per play on Sunday. The Giants didn't have a kicker,
which cost them, like, I don't know, six points, and
they were down, they were at the goal line. They
could have another touchdown. Yeah, I mean, Mahomes completed two
balls downfield. But you got to remember no kicker, and
(14:27):
Andrew Thomas didn't play the second half, and Russell Wilson
was just throwing it into the end zone. This Chief's
just throwing him to the tunnel at the end of
the game. I don't know what he was doing. So
I wasn't overly impressed with the Chiefs. I know Chris
Collinsworth was just drooling all over. Mahomes also threw it
backwards twice, just.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
Like that was crazy. That was He just doesn't That's
what I'm saying. Last week, he doesn't seem like the
same guy.
Speaker 4 (14:55):
I thought that could have been two Giants touchdowns and
which would have swung the whole game. I mean, they
also won the turn of a battle to nothing. The
Giants went one a four on fourth down, they didn't
have a kicker, and it was kind of a game.
Speaker 2 (15:09):
So wait, I have a question, since we are getting
raptured do we just put fucking money everywhere this week? Like,
do we do we go balls to the wall because
money doesn't matter. We're getting raptured.
Speaker 1 (15:21):
Well, people are selling stuff, so I don't know that everybody.
Speaker 4 (15:26):
There's no need to even put place at that.
Speaker 1 (15:28):
I don't get raptured. I still I still want a
bank roll, So I just I'm not ready to make
that sort of commitment.
Speaker 4 (15:34):
They but no, I can't back the Chiefs here. But
the Raidings have issues. Like I said, I don't know
if it's like their defense this week unlike last week? Though,
can you know you can provide help because when you're
playing the lines, they can spread you out. They have
really good receivers, but here the Chiefs run game isn't
(15:56):
as good. They don't have Gibbs in Montgomery and their
receivers aren't as good. Well see if Worthy can go.
But this Chiefs offense is just like even the loss
amount of Bouquet isn't as great this week as it
was last week. And this Chief's back end on the
defense still has issues so that I think Lamar can exploit.
But I'll tell you the Chiefs are probably gonna look
(16:19):
at a lot of what the Lions did defensively last week.
The key to me, there's two keys, is Worthy back.
He's just so huge for the Chiefs offense and is
likely back for the Ravens. And then if so, how
healthy are they and in what capacity? But both of
those pieces are really important. But yeah, I want no
part of the Chiefs as of right now. Two and
(16:40):
a half. I will say this game is huge because
this is essentially a one seed elimination game because you look,
I mean you look at the Bills schedule. The Ravens
already have a loss to the Bills. If they lose
to the Chiefs, I don't see them getting the one seed,
which is uber important. If the Chiefs fall to one
(17:01):
in three, I don't see them finely. I mean, maybe
they could beat the Bills head to head, that'll help
make up the gap. But this game is big for
playoff positioning. The teams that coming into the season thought
they were going to get a one seed. They don't
win this game, and then you're going to have a
tougher path in the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
At the end of the day, I think we're looking
at the difference being the Ravens can clean.
Speaker 3 (17:21):
Up the issues that they had last night.
Speaker 2 (17:23):
The Chiefs cannot make up for the lack of talent
and the injuries in comparison to the Ravens right now.
Speaker 3 (17:29):
That's what I'm looking at.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
Like the Ravens can limit the turnovers, they can have
Lamar get the ball out quicker, they can change their
offensive plan a little bit. The Chiefs cannot get over
the lack of talent issue that they're having right now.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
It's still a team that you need to downgrade at
least slightly, just in the fact that they're coming off
of a Monday night football game where they just got
beat up by the Detroit Lions. So there is that
also that the Ravens are at a scheduled disadvantage here,
not just being on the road, but I think even
more importantly, coming off of that Monday night game, it
sounds to me like we're all on a holding pattern
with this one. So we'll put them to the side
(18:00):
till Thursday.
Speaker 4 (18:02):
By the way, the Eagles were just minus one and
a half in Kansas City. I mean I have the
Raidens three points better than the Eagles, so now they're
not at one hundred percent full strength with neither is
Kansas City. So I would in order to entertain the Chiefs,
I would need at least three, but definitely not at
two and a half.
Speaker 1 (18:22):
I don't think this ever touches three, do you.
Speaker 4 (18:25):
I could see it. Let's see there is.
Speaker 3 (18:31):
It looks like two and a half's across the board.
Speaker 4 (18:34):
Yeah, but there there's semi juice. There's like minus two
and a half minus one twenty, So I could see
a touch in three. Depending it'll depend on injury reports,
and there'll probably be some buy on Kansas City at three,
but we'll be monitoring and we'll talk more on Thursday
about it.
Speaker 1 (18:47):
Yeah, I'll be one of the buyers when that touches
the three Monday night football in the Bucks. Let's move
on to Viking Steelers leave for Dublin on Thursday after practice.
So I did digging to see both of the travel
schedules here Kendra, to see if we had any sort
of an edge on who lands in Dublin first. They
(19:08):
both leave Thursday after practice, so I don't know who's
gonna land first, but they're not gonna land too far
apart from one another.
Speaker 3 (19:15):
I think that's so dumb.
Speaker 1 (19:17):
I know, I don't know that we does it still
matter if it's like fifteen minutes apart? Is it just okay?
It has to be well you're talking hours days?
Speaker 3 (19:27):
Yeah, yeah, because there actually is data.
Speaker 2 (19:29):
I don't know if Evan wound up looking into it
or not, but I remember specifically the last couple of
years there being a difference between people who would leave
pretty much, you know, Monday or Tuesday, and then the
people who would follow the Thursday schedule and leave. There
definitely was a significant advantage in the team who got
there earlier. And I even look back at like, like
(19:50):
I said, Jags fan, I've been through this quite a
few times. Jags got their absolute ass beat by the
Bears in their first game last year, stayed played a
second game across the way in London against the Patriots
last year and wax the Patriots.
Speaker 3 (20:02):
The time advantage definitely helps you.
Speaker 2 (20:05):
I don't like I said. I don't know if Evan
looked into it. I should have probably done more research.
But as someone who has suffered through these London games
for quite some time now and pays attention to all
of them, there is an advantage to getting there earlier
and adjusting well, and.
Speaker 1 (20:18):
There's definitely an advantage to staying there. I think the
bigger advantage isn't so much about this week on Minnesota
or Pittsburgh, but the Vikings play the Browns in London
next week and Week five. Teams that stay overseas have
a massive advantage. The Jags are the only team to
have done it to go back to back overseas. They
are two and oh straight up two and oh against
(20:39):
the spread. You just mentioned getting waxed in games prior
and then turning right around because they stay there. So
perhaps I wish the Vikings were playing a better team
than Cleveland, where there we have a tighter number, because
they're going to be pretty heavy favorites against the Browns,
But I would still look early on at targeting the
Vikings in week five. That's probably the best. I know
we're talking about week four, but I think the best
(20:59):
angle to look at here is Vikings week five.
Speaker 2 (21:02):
One n not even a question in my mind depending
do we have a number on that already for.
Speaker 1 (21:07):
The Vikings Browns.
Speaker 3 (21:08):
It looks like it's six and a half seven right now.
Speaker 1 (21:11):
I don't. I mean, it's not gonna it's not gonna
get much lower than that. If the Browns would have
to beat the Lions. I don't see them going back
to back like that against the AFC North.
Speaker 4 (21:21):
The Vikings going back. I'm not laying seven with JJ McCarry.
I mean, I don't think I want to like seven
with JJ McCarthy, wor cars some wentz but uh, that
sounds like a PA against that Browns front.
Speaker 3 (21:32):
That'll be a no go from me. Big dogs.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
Yeah, I wish they I wish they were playing a
team that was good enough to where the Vikings would
be a dog. We'd be all over the Minnesota Vikings
in that spot. Haf Tough looks, yes, exactly. The injuries
are piling up, folks. Nick Bosa done for the year.
He's out San Francisco, he's got an ACL injury. Ceed
Lamb is out multiple weeks. He's definitely gonna miss against
(21:56):
the Green Bay Packers. Jerry Jones is talking about putting
him on ir J.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
Crazy because he said that he could even potentially play
this week if he wanted to CD dead.
Speaker 1 (22:05):
Yeah, I mean that's a pretty big gap in.
Speaker 3 (22:10):
Fuck up God, I'm so sick of him.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
We've already seen that line moved pretty drastically. It was
five and a half, four and a half, five, somewhere
between four and five at open, but quickly got bet
up to Packers minus six. Right after the news came
out about Ceedee Lamb, it popped six and a half
and now you see sevens pretty much across the board.
James Connors also done with a severe ankle injury. He's
(22:34):
out for the year. Fire up Trey Benson Stock and
Najee Harris is done with an achilles. So I assume
as far as this goes, Nick Bosa would definitely move
a line. Ceedee Lamb feels like the most drastic of
all of these as far as where we would be
leaning towards one side or the other based on these
injuries that we see. I would have probably wanted to
(22:57):
be on Dallas this week against Green Bay, but I
don't think you can touch it without Ceedee Lamb Stucky.
We saw what that looked like when he left the game.
The team could have moved the ball consistently.
Speaker 4 (23:07):
Yeah, it's tough. I mean, it's still get seven. We're
getting up there, it's getting I mean, I could not
be at the Packers. It's only the Cowboys at that price.
But that was that was one of their biggest advents. Like,
their biggest strengths of their team is their wide receiver room,
and their offense is going to have to make up
for their defense which is atrocious. Uh so again, you're
getting the Packers salty off of the loss Parsons revenge game. Sure,
(23:30):
he's going to be firing out of a canon.
Speaker 1 (23:32):
So do we have Parsons Yeah, yeah, probably Yeah, over
that's going to be at least minus two hundred.
Speaker 4 (23:45):
Everyone's going to be bad minus eight minus eight hundred
for over a one and a half sacks. But yeah,
the Bosa one's big. The forty nine ers are stars
and scrubs team.
Speaker 3 (23:56):
Like, yeah, I want to talk about that game.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
Because obviously we don't have the news about Mac Jones
and brought Party. Yet it's sitting at the Jags getting
three and a half. Do we think that this value
is going to get any better or any worse, because
obviously Party was pretty close to allegedly.
Speaker 3 (24:09):
Being back this week.
Speaker 2 (24:10):
I think that if he plays, obviously this number gets
better if you like the Jags, But I think that
we probably if you have any likes or Leans, this
is maybe where you have to make some value decisions
and make them quickly, especially with both out.
Speaker 1 (24:25):
I'm sitting this conversation out because this is my plant
the flag game.
Speaker 4 (24:28):
So yeah, I would think it goes to three if
if it's Mac Jones, and then it ticks back up
to four four and a half if it's Party. I
could be wrong, but the both laws is big. Like
that defense, all the attention that he draws then opens
(24:49):
up things for your other pass rushers, So the trickle
down effect is no longer there because overall, if you
look at this defense, it's not an overly talented unit.
And uh so, yeah, I think that the the Jacks
are definitely gonna benefit from that. So we'll see, we'll
we'll talk more about that on Brandon's plays by game.
(25:10):
But yeah, the Bosa and the lamb Ones are obviously
pretty big. That James Connord's unfortunate, but I don't think
it really impacts the Cardinals that much. They have they
have good running back death and it's it's still at
the end of the day, it's a running back, so
that's not that's not too impactful other than just impacting
your depth. But yeah, Cowboys are in trouble if Lamb
(25:30):
is out long term because I think the coming into
the year is like Lamb and Parsons, let's rely on
the rights. We don't have.
Speaker 1 (25:37):
Either exactly now, it's all it's all on Dak and
a resurgent Ravante Williams. I think the Packers are a
great teaser. Leg I already took them down to half
a point and the and I paired that with the
Denver Broncos on Monday Night down to a point against
the Cincinnati Bengals bod Nicks. As a teaser, leg has
(25:58):
been I think he's been the most profitable Caeser candidate
over the last year.
Speaker 4 (26:05):
So the defense.
Speaker 1 (26:12):
Right, yeah, I mean that's why you have to buy
the points with if you're gonna bet bo Nicks. So
let's take a look at the ATS standings report as
it stands right now, only two three and oh teams
remain against the spread, the Indianapolis Colts and the LA Chargers.
The Chargers one is debatable because that line sat at
two and a half. I think it hit a three
at some point before kickoff. Unfortunately I was impatient enough
(26:35):
on that and I took the l on the Denver Broncos.
Speaking of bo Nicks by the points, ladies and gentlemen,
But the Saints, Broncos and Texans are the only three
not to cover the number yet. The big question of
all of this is is it time finally to fade
the Indianapolis Colts. They finally play a real football team
(26:56):
in the LA Rams this week. Waiting for this opportunity,
but am this team is impressive? So is anybody willing
to do it to fade the Indianapolis Colts is an
undefeated ATS team.
Speaker 2 (27:09):
I think I potentially might get there just because the
Rams are healthy. Outside of if you want to consider
the Matthew Stafford back saying an issue which he's older,
I think it's something you definitely have to look at
But I do think that this is the week that
the Colts get got. I'm not going to say they're
going to turn back into a pumpkin, because I do
think that they're actually a legit team at this point.
Speaker 3 (27:31):
I don't know why I feel that way.
Speaker 2 (27:34):
I know when we first started this show, I was
talking about how they draft. Well, it's just been the
coaching not be able to put the pieces together for them.
But I just think that this Rams team is just
all class. They're as healthy as they can be. That
the healthiest they're going to be all season. The Rams
are legit, man. They were one of my favorite heading
into the season, one of my sleeper picks to you know,
make a deep playoff run.
Speaker 3 (27:53):
Not that that's really even a sleeper.
Speaker 2 (27:54):
It's just the NFC's not you know, the the NFC
is not the AFC right now. A couple of years ago,
you would have gotten me to say otherwise.
Speaker 3 (28:02):
But I don't know.
Speaker 2 (28:05):
They haven't played any great opponents so far. Their their
game this week was just a heartbreaker.
Speaker 4 (28:12):
I'll see. I'm curious how they bounced back after that.
But uh yeah, I would love a three. That's what
I'm hoping. There's a lot of Colts love in the market,
and we can at some point get to three. That's
what I'll be waiting for all week. They might get
a Vealo back so they could be one hundred percent
healthy this week. But yeah, I've been impressed with the Colts,
(28:32):
especially against the Broncos at home in that defense, because
like the Broncos, the Rams can get pressure and Daniel
Jones historically struggled against pressure, but against the Broncos they
were able to move it and they carved up that defense.
But yeah, if we can get if I can get
a three, I would I'm definitely in on the Rams here.
But uh, because we have to keep in mind the Colts.
(28:55):
It's again, it's only three games, and two of them
have come against the Titans five starters out and the Dolphins,
who didn't even get off the bus in Week one,
and then their one win came against the Broncos because
of a leaping penalty. By the way, you could have
called it on on the Eagles on that field goal block,
but of course they didn't. So they could easily be
(29:16):
one too and one still looking good, but the conversation
would be a lot different that they're two and one
with wins over the Texans. Excuse me, the Titans and
the Dolphins, who have yet to win a game. And yeah,
the Titans, by the way, are just I don't even
(29:36):
want to talk about that game. They're three and seventeen
against the spread over the past twenty.
Speaker 1 (29:40):
I bet them. I'll talk at the seven and a half.
I'm not even going to suggest it, but but the.
Speaker 4 (29:47):
Number seven and a half, it's them or nothing, just
because the Texans bid don't deserve to be laying seven
and a half.
Speaker 1 (29:54):
That's exactly anyone exactly, it's a bet against the Texans
and unfortunately the Titans of side on the other side
of it.
Speaker 3 (30:02):
You might be right. I hate to say it, but
it's a divisional game.
Speaker 1 (30:07):
The Texans have been terrible laying seven seven and a
get and I got it at minus one ten. That
number is gone now, which does make me feel good
about the wager, at least at this juncture in the week.
I'm sure I'll feel differently when we're into the second
quarter on Sunday, but I feel like it was a
bet that that had to be made.
Speaker 4 (30:27):
Now I'll get I think I'm going eleven bet and
Titans games when I beat the close over the last
two years, sometimes by like three points. So the Titans,
we'll find a way. The Callahan, he's just he's gotta go.
Did you hear the fire Callahan? Chance and the stands
at oh yeah, end of the half?
Speaker 1 (30:45):
Really he might beat Mike McDaniel to the bunch, who knows.
Speaker 3 (30:49):
Yeah. Can we talk about how dumb that c J.
Speaker 2 (30:52):
Stroud and Kayleb Williams conversation looks like after their game
when he goes up to him and he's like, you know,
fix your mistakes.
Speaker 3 (30:58):
This this league's two hard blah blah blah blah blah.
Speaker 1 (31:01):
CJ.
Speaker 2 (31:01):
Stroud giving Kleb Williams all this advice and it's like,
you look real dumb.
Speaker 3 (31:05):
Now, you look real dumb right now?
Speaker 4 (31:08):
Yeah, Stroud's gotta he's got to figure it out. But
he's getting no help around him.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
He's becoming more and more unlikable to me. His rookie season,
I like loved him and I hate the Texans more
than any other team or fan base, but he is
becoming more and more unlikable rather quickly, in my opinion.
Speaker 1 (31:24):
Yeah, he's uh, he's not handling the losing press conference
well to this point. By the way, I have a
damning stat on the Indianapolis Colts. This will make you
want to fade them quickly. This is uh. I found
a graph on how often do NFL defenses allow a
new series of downs? The dead last team in the
NFL is the Indianapolis Colt seventy eight percent of the
(31:45):
time their defense allows a new series of downs. The
best team in the NFL is the Green Bay Packers,
the Vikings, the Chargers, the Broncos. Just for a frame
of reference, those are the best defenses in the league.
The Colts are dead last. And look who they've played.
I do wonder if some of that is just because
they've been blowing some teams out and garbage time maybe
(32:06):
has baked into that a little bit. But still that
they're down there with the Cowboys, Bengals, Dolphins, and Steelers,
and this is an undefeated team that's also spread.
Speaker 4 (32:16):
You're not getting any pressure. That's bad. I mean the
Titans were moving the ball on them a bit. That
Broncos shredded them. You can't get trigded by the Broncos offense.
And the Dolphins were just they were in a daze.
But yeah, their defense isn't great. It's better because it's
not Gus Bradley, but it's still not an elite unit
for sure. So their offense has to keep up this pace.
Speaker 1 (32:39):
So I flashed the bat signal early this morning because
I saw this line out there for the Bills and
the Saints. It's up to sixteen and a half, and
I thought, how often do you see a number that
big this early on in the season. So we're talking
about the September really early October portion of the season.
And I look back, I did my own research, couldn't
(33:02):
find anything but through the bat signal up there, and
Evan Abrams hit me back with this one. The biggest
Week one through four spread that we have seen is
this one. Bills favored by sixteen and a half since
twenty twenty one. It was also a Bills game at
home against the Houston Texans where the Bills were favored
(33:22):
by seventeen. They won that game forty to zero. This
is also the largest the Saints have been an underdog
since nineteen seventy five, which is shocking to me because
they've had some bad teams since nineteen seventy five. Anybody
willing to lay the lay the lumber on the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 3 (33:40):
Absolutely not no.
Speaker 4 (33:42):
Not only sixteen and a half an NFL game, although
I think historically favorites of over two touchdowns. Heaven can
correct us, correct me if wrong. I think they're like
five hundred against the spread, but Josh Allen is six
nine and two against the spread when favored by more
than ten. We just saw them favored by eleven and
a half at home against the Dolphins, and Dolphins easily covered. Like,
if this gets the seventeen, I might have to think
(34:03):
about the Saints. The Saints weren't that bad last week,
like their special teams were disaster, but like success right yards,
they were pretty even with the Seahawks, and they looked
like functional. And this Bills team is not the team
that you want to lay seventeen with in this spot.
Like they're they're gonna they're gonna take the air out
of the ball, They're gonna run it a ton, they're
gonna kill clock.
Speaker 3 (34:24):
Yeah, stay healthy.
Speaker 4 (34:25):
You're not gonna run Allen, So yeah, no, thanks.
Speaker 3 (34:29):
Stay healthy, kill clock.
Speaker 2 (34:30):
Is there any team right now in the NFL that's
like an absolute world beater to you, guys? I know
that the conversation was the Packers last week, Like, I
don't think anybody is like a bona fide favorite right now,
everybody's flawed.
Speaker 1 (34:41):
Well I would agree with that, Yeah, Bills.
Speaker 4 (34:45):
I think pat Packers might be the best team in
the NFC when they're healthy, like they're Offen's a lot
got dominated last week because of their injuries, but uh
that they're not like head and shoulders above everyone else.
I think the Ravens are the best team they see
when they're fully healthy, but they're beatable mark games.
Speaker 3 (35:02):
I don't know what it is.
Speaker 4 (35:03):
It's a lot of parody in the NFL, but for
for what, it's where dogs off off a thirty point
plus loss, Like who wants to bet an underdog which
means they're playing a better team after a thirty plus
point loss. One hundred and fifteen seventy seven and eight
against the spread over the past twenty five years, that's
sixty percent. This week you got three of them. Yeah,
(35:24):
the Saints, the Falcons, and the Bengals. So historically it's
been a good bet. Teams off a thirty point plus
point loss bet them the next week.
Speaker 1 (35:32):
Because I am softening, I'm softening a little bit on
the on the Falcons idea the other two.
Speaker 3 (35:37):
I thought we were in bet jail with the Falcons.
Speaker 1 (35:39):
Well, I just said, I'm softening. They're still behind. They're
still behind.
Speaker 4 (35:43):
The I played Falcons rails.
Speaker 3 (35:45):
Whatever you want to tell you about.
Speaker 4 (35:47):
Bet jail, that's the time the bettle.
Speaker 3 (35:48):
Besides, I'm in lad Maconkee bet jail.
Speaker 2 (35:50):
But I'm going to tell you guys, he's going to
score this week. If you faded me last week, this
is your time. I'm gonna preface this. I'm going to
be so he he haha, silly with my picks this week.
When we finally roll around to Thursday, I'm just letting
you guys know I am going off the rails.
Speaker 1 (36:10):
It's already that time of the year.
Speaker 3 (36:12):
That's my tease. I'm going to be insane.
Speaker 1 (36:17):
The Evan has shared the stat fifty so favorites of
over fourteen points fifty three, fifty two and three against
the spread and essential coin flip. So we are all
staying away from Okay, I don't hate that, leve. Let's
(36:37):
talk to the professor of pickles here, Kendra Middleton. What
is the game that has you all torn up your
pickle game of the week.
Speaker 2 (36:45):
You already know that it's going to be the battle
of the p words. It's the Panthers and the Patriots.
I with the way that the number is looking, I
get that the Panthers are not a thirty point, shutout
win team against absolutely anybody, But I think they're finding
their rhythm right now. I all right, do what is
(37:06):
going on with Christian Gonzales?
Speaker 1 (37:08):
You tell us that's your John?
Speaker 3 (37:11):
I know, I do. I think that. Do they sit
in this?
Speaker 2 (37:14):
Okay, here's my thing, and I'm between this like everybody else.
I told you guys that the local media is kind
of saying that they are thinking.
Speaker 3 (37:21):
That it's going to be the Bills game.
Speaker 2 (37:23):
If you're a head coach, which obviously none of us are,
unless you guys coach like high school or something that
I don't know about, would you rather start Christian Gonzalez
in a game against the Panthers to maybe let him
warm up take you know, twenty thirty percent of the
reps on defense, or would you rather just let him
sit one more week and throw him out there against Buffalo.
Speaker 4 (37:43):
Yeah, I'd rather come back this week, especially the Patriots.
You can't you want to get him into the next
before how much stuffer opponent.
Speaker 1 (37:52):
Absolutely, And it's not like anybody's all push over to
the New England Patriots. They can't look at their schedule
that way.
Speaker 2 (37:58):
I just I say, I think that this number is
too big for a Patriot Crazy that sucks.
Speaker 3 (38:04):
I think that I have to back the sad Cats.
Speaker 1 (38:07):
You guys, I don't understand what's happening. So I do
my own numbers just to you know, get a framework
of what we're looking at for the week. And this
is the most off market game for me. I have.
The Patriots is a one point favorite, So I don't
know one.
Speaker 4 (38:24):
Of my look at those numbers.
Speaker 1 (38:26):
Well exactly like I don't. Everything else is sort of
where it should be. You know, we're in range that one.
I don't know where I have gone astray with this
or what I'm missing, but I'm it's too off for
me to bet it because obviously I need to get
back in the lab with that. But this Patriots team
(38:47):
should not be a five and a half point favorite,
just common sense wise. And then the numbers, it's something And.
Speaker 2 (38:52):
If Gonzales comes back, that number is probably only gonna
get better.
Speaker 4 (38:56):
Yeah, yeah, it's gonna go up. To six six and
a half this week. I bet the Patriots if you're in,
If you're curious, dogs underdogs that just won a game
by a shutout are thirty five percent against the spread. Historically,
the Panthers still stink. Penicks just had a game where
he was awful and he couldn't complete a pass. Like
(39:18):
they didn't do anything. They were just playing their basic
cover three Ay. Penis just could couldn't read the defense.
There was miscommunication issues. I mean, the Panthers got out
game by one hundred yards. Their defense still stinks. They
have offensive line injuries. The Patriots are going to dominate
them up front. They're not able to run the ball,
especially if they get Gonzales back. How are they moving
the ball? I don't know. The Patriots don't have a
problem moving the ball. They moved the ball half They
(39:40):
moved all every single game this year, up and down
the field, like last last week. They played that game
nine out of ten times. They beat the Steelers by
twenty if they don't fumble, they turned it over five times.
They fumbled the goal line twice. So and this this
Panther's defense is wretched. That one game doesn't change my
thoughts on that their offensive line was supposed to be
(40:02):
their strength, is now missing multiple starters. The loss of
Hunt is huge, and the Patriots front has been really good,
so they're not going to run it, and then Young
will be under pressure. It's probably gonna make mistakes. So yeah,
I like the Patriots. I like the Patriots went by
margin this week. Not my plant the flag game, but uh,
I am.
Speaker 1 (40:20):
On if if the Panthers cover this with the ease,
I'm never doubting my power ratings again, but for right now,
I'm gonna doubt my power ratings.
Speaker 3 (40:27):
Rabel doesn't lose games like this.
Speaker 2 (40:29):
I'll say that like to bad teams, Like I get
that the Steelers were they're not a good team, but
they're not the Panthers.
Speaker 3 (40:36):
That's the only lean.
Speaker 2 (40:37):
That I have in this game Patriots wise, is that
Rabel beats bad teams.
Speaker 4 (40:42):
Even though he was the Patriots worse than the Panthers.
That's insane.
Speaker 3 (40:46):
I don't know. I don't have the Patriots worse.
Speaker 4 (40:51):
I'm talking with Brandon has one point spread. That's it kind.
Speaker 3 (40:56):
Of looks like as we're due.
Speaker 2 (40:57):
The tarketingste digs at.
Speaker 1 (41:00):
All, I have the Panthers is one point better than
the New England Patriots.
Speaker 4 (41:05):
That's insane in market. The I mean even going in that.
Speaker 1 (41:09):
That's without a home field or anything like any any
other factors, just power ratings wise.
Speaker 4 (41:14):
It's the more in market. Do you think you even
going in the last week there, it's it's like a
four and a half point difference. Uh, Brabel is twenty
eight and eleven straight up against teams under five hundred
to teams.
Speaker 3 (41:26):
That's one thing I will give him.
Speaker 4 (41:29):
Hire playing Where are we planting our flags?
Speaker 1 (41:31):
Yeah, we're planting the flag. Okay, I'm gonna get it started.
Forty nine ers minus three and a half already kind
of teased this one. I got a minus one oh five,
this might touch three. I'm gonna take the gamble here
that Purty plays will see this number tick up by
a couple of points. But it's a fade against the Jags.
They've got wins over the Panthers, who I'm clearly off on,
(41:51):
and the uh in the Houston Texans.
Speaker 4 (41:54):
And how good the Panthers are.
Speaker 1 (41:56):
No, no, no, I'm not that's a good win yet.
Speaker 2 (42:00):
Us.
Speaker 4 (42:00):
If I say Champs are better than the Patriots and you.
Speaker 1 (42:03):
Like them, yeah, my numbers are not gospel.
Speaker 3 (42:10):
Today.
Speaker 1 (42:11):
I'm going back to the lab on the on the
Panthers because I think narrative, I think, yeah, well that's
definitely true. But I I think I think I've overrated them.
The I don't make the numbers off of subjectivity. This
is a formula, and clearly the formula has overrated a
thirty point win. Besides that, the Jags defense has been great,
(42:32):
but this is gonna be their biggest test of the season.
They ring second to last in receiving grade. Big shocker there,
and then dead last and special teams. We see how
important special teams are early on in the season. A
chance that party plays in this number ticking up. I'm
going to plant the flag on the forty nine ers now,
and I'm even willing to lay the hook at three
and a half.
Speaker 3 (42:50):
I'll tell you, the forty nine ers have had the
Jags number for years and years. So I am flying
across the country for this.
Speaker 5 (42:57):
But I don't hate it.
Speaker 4 (42:59):
I don't think I like three and a half with
this for you talk about the Jags. Resume the forty
nine ers or three and oh they have wins over
Seattle and a coin flip game, New Orleans in a
coin flip game, and then Arizona in a game they
probably should have lost.
Speaker 1 (43:14):
So like, that's looking pretty good.
Speaker 4 (43:17):
I'm not They've won by four, five and one, so like,
this isn't a team that I And now there's no Bosa,
so I'll be curious today. Might maybe they get Party
and maybe they get Jennings back?
Speaker 3 (43:29):
Can I say something crazy?
Speaker 4 (43:30):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (43:31):
I think I like them more if Mac Jones is playing.
Speaker 4 (43:34):
Well, if you get a three, you might get a
three and next.
Speaker 2 (43:36):
No, I think that they're more likely to win this game.
If Mac is playing just because Party's hurt.
Speaker 1 (43:41):
Maxim might not.
Speaker 4 (43:43):
He might drive off the driving Max.
Speaker 2 (43:45):
Been playing lights out, a revenge game from him against
his hometown.
Speaker 3 (43:49):
Like, what are we even doing here?
Speaker 1 (43:52):
I mean, obviously, I'm still I'm still comfortable with I'm
so comfortable with the forty nine ers. If Jones plays,
I'd rather have pretty out there. I think we're forgetting
how good.
Speaker 3 (44:03):
Even with like the claw toe?
Speaker 4 (44:05):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (44:07):
No, no, all right to McGee over.
Speaker 1 (44:09):
Here, what about you, Kendrew? Where you plainting the flag?
Speaker 3 (44:12):
You alluded to it teased a little bit. I'm going
with the Seahawks.
Speaker 1 (44:16):
This line is wrong.
Speaker 2 (44:18):
The Seahawks are it's Seahawks are nothing for me this
week probably going to be my biggest play.
Speaker 3 (44:22):
The Cardinals are bad. People are sleeping on the Seahawks.
Speaker 2 (44:25):
Yes, they lost to the forty nine Ers, but they
were still healthy, as healthy as they were going to
be at that point for the season. Beat the bag
out of the Steelers, beat the bag out of the Saints.
Steelers and Saints both bad. But I think that the
Saints and the Steelers are both equivalent to the Cardinals.
Cardinals got injury issues. Seahawks are better than people are
giving them credit for. I think that this is a
real team to reckon without West. I'm going with the
(44:45):
Seahawks this week, no questions asked.
Speaker 1 (44:48):
Yeah, great teaser leg too, Let them kick them up
to us lot.
Speaker 4 (44:53):
Just people listening on Thursdays. There's a lot of injuries
that look for both sides, Cardinals secondary, Seahawks secondary. There's
a couple others too, so keep your eye out there.
Because the Seahawks a bunch of their defenders didn't play
on Sunday, and then the Cardinals as well, so we'll
(45:14):
see who goes. It seems like an over reaction. I mean,
coming into the year that we've all said, like we're
out on the Seahawks. People were saying the Cardinals are
a sleeper, and like, if you look at their resumes,
like they've they've pretty much played to what we expected.
But should should be a good one on Thursday night.
Injuries are gonna be big to watching the secondaries there,
I'll I'll play my flag on the only game I've
(45:35):
played so far, I've played the Falcons, but that there's
probably no threes left? Are there any threes left? I
doubt it?
Speaker 3 (45:42):
Just two and a half.
Speaker 4 (45:43):
Yeah, I still would play the Falcons at two and
a half, but obviously not as big. But I mean
the calendar. Who knows if Daniel's gonna play, who knows
how healthy is I don't like this Commander team this
year anyway, but they have their entire secondary got hurt
last week. McLaurin got hurt. They lost. I think they
have like four or five starters on IR they started.
They signed Darnell Savage, just got cut by the Jaguars
(46:04):
and he's probably gonna start for them. Lattimore looks washed.
Speaker 3 (46:08):
I think Savage sucks.
Speaker 4 (46:10):
This is the trifecta. It was a team off of
the Falcons had a misleading box score loss. They are
off of a shutout teams and then they were off
of a thirty point loss. So underdogs off of a
after getting shut out sixty two percent historically dogs off
a thirty plus point loss sixty percent historically huge sample size.
(46:34):
So but I'll plan my flag on the Bengals plus
seven and a half. Still some seven and a half's
out there. I think minus one fifteen the look we
said last week, and the Bengals, by the way, fit
this off of a dog off a thirty plus point loss.
We said last week that I made the difference between
(46:56):
uh and this is one of the reasons I kind
of liked the Vikings. I did end up playing it,
but I made the difference between and Browning five points.
Markets seemed to have made it like three to three
and a half four. I thought that was too short.
It looks like I was probably right. It's probably closer
to five five and a half points. Okay, Well, coming
into the year, you can go back to Week sixteen
last year when these two teams played. The Bengals defense
(47:17):
still awful. Burrow was playing the Bengals need both teams
needed the game we're trying. The Bengals are three and
a half point favorites at home, so the power ratings lives.
Coming into the year, I had the Bengals as the
better team when fully healthy. We've seen how bad bon
Nicks has been, so I made this game before. If
(47:39):
everyone was at full strength in Denver respect the home
field be like Denver'd be like close to a pick
Denver minus won at most. So let's adjust for the
drop between Burrow and Browning. I can't get to over seven,
can't get to seven, so you're gonna give me over seven.
I'm gonna take it there. So I get that it's
(48:02):
scary playing Browning after another defense and get pressure. Maybe
makes a ton of mistakes again, but Knicks could too,
So I'll plan my flag on I don't think you're
going to see us seven and a half for much
of the week leading up into game time, so I'll
plan my flag on the Bengals plus seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (48:20):
All right, Kendrin's on Seattle plus one and a half,
Stucky's got the Bengals plus seven and a half, and
I am on the forty nine Ers minus three and
a half against the Jaguars. Time now for the main
event of our Tuesday episode. No betting week can start
without it. The primer courtesy of Evan Abrams. Evan, welcome
to the show. What trends are we looking at before
we fire away on the Apps this week?
Speaker 6 (48:43):
Well, so, guys, honestly, I feel like and Stucky talks
about this all the time, and I'm start sorry to
keep bringing this up, but the Titans, the numbers are
just stupid, and I feel like it's worth noting how
bad the ATS stuff has gotten with them. So Stucky
mentioned the three and seventeen ats plus twenty six, six,
twenty three and one ats last thirty seven, twenty five
(49:04):
and one last thirty three and losing ten straight ats
at home, which not this week but we'll deal with
in a week or two.
Speaker 5 (49:12):
Just absolutely insane. I feel like the other story lost.
Speaker 4 (49:15):
Seventeen of our twenty game stretch the worst ever, Evan.
Speaker 5 (49:19):
I was gonna look at that.
Speaker 6 (49:20):
I've had trouble with spends, but when I had some time,
it was going to be the next thing on my mind.
Speaker 5 (49:26):
So I will get back to on that one. But
I feel like someone has done that before.
Speaker 4 (49:30):
A Browns team from like the mid two.
Speaker 5 (49:33):
Thousands something like that. But I feel like it's been done.
Speaker 6 (49:37):
But the stretch in itself is just stupid, especially when
you consider the quarterback play.
Speaker 5 (49:42):
The Mahome stuff this week is just a lot of fun.
Speaker 6 (49:44):
So you guys are talking about the three point line,
it looks like Baltimore is getting minus two and a
half minus one twenty, so that plus three might be coming,
and that would be the largest home dog he has
been since Texas Tech. It was Shane Buckle, which was
Texas's quarterback back in November of twenty sixteen, the last
time he was plus Yeah, thank you, Stuck. I feel
(50:07):
like you were going to do that for me and
I appreciate it. Here's the best one. And I actually
just finished looking this up. So he's actually never won
as a home dog oh and nine and two in
the pros oh in seven of Texas Tech, so this
would be the first time he's ever won as a
home underdog. And the funny thing ish and two straight
up as a home dog, fifty five and twelve as
(50:27):
a favorite, So maybe something to look at there. The
only thing that I think is fun when Mahomes is
either an underdog or a favorite of blessed that a
field goal at home. He is just four and five
straight up. So in these tight games, Lamar Josh, there
might even be a Tom in there difficult opponents. So
I felt that one was kind of interesting. I'll give
(50:48):
you one more.
Speaker 5 (50:50):
Dak Prescott.
Speaker 6 (50:50):
So that line is up to seven now at at CD, lamb.
This would be tied for his biggest home underdog in
his career. Twenty eighteen against the Saints and Drew Brees
was the last time he was plus seven or higher
at home.
Speaker 5 (51:03):
So interesting line there is. It's gone up a few
points with that CD.
Speaker 1 (51:09):
Is there anything This might be obscure, but the Bucks
have won three straight games on game ending drives to
seal the victory luck alone, I mean, is there any
do we have anything awful?
Speaker 4 (51:23):
Teams?
Speaker 5 (51:24):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (51:24):
On on doing what you do in the fourth game.
After doing that three in a row, it just feels
so unique in what the Bucks have done to get
to three and oh.
Speaker 5 (51:33):
I'll give you this one.
Speaker 6 (51:34):
So Bucks are the second team in the Wild carder
to start three and oh with three fourth quarter comebacks.
The most ironic thing about this run the Bucks are
also zero and three against the fourth quarter spread, So
they've not only made the comeback and done the job,
but they actually haven't covered in their fourth quarter spreads
because of the chaos on the other side. So the
(51:55):
only other team in the wildcard area since nineteen ninety
to do the three and oh with fourth quarter comebacks
Falcons in twenty fifteen. They ended eight and eight six
and ten against the spread and sucked. So this actually
might just be a fluke. But again, one team, guys,
I mean, nothing like that can be you know, taken
two seriously, But I will say this. Dampa was thirteen
(52:17):
and four fourth quarter spread last season, so this feels
like just something in Baker's blood.
Speaker 4 (52:23):
Yeah, Baker has definitely clutched in the games, and to
be fair, they have a ton of offensive line injuries
and they're surriving, but two of the wins came against
the Jets and the Texans in the last second, which
doesn't look great. But their offensive line is in shambles
and they're three now, so you can't complain too much.
(52:44):
And that the Eagles have been extremely lucky too, so
these are this is a luckbox Bowl.
Speaker 1 (52:49):
Heavn't you have anything on the rapture?
Speaker 2 (52:52):
Yeah? I do.
Speaker 6 (52:54):
I mean Giants and Jets at home, I mean in
primetime again this week. It feels like the raptor has
something to do with that. I put this out five
and thirty four Giants and Jets and night games. We
get the Jets again this week. But maybe the other
side of the rapture is the fact that they have
to play the Dolphins. Like, maybe that's what the rapture
is is you kind of get this matchup and the
world just ends at halftime in that game, and.
Speaker 3 (53:16):
You're talking to us as God right now.
Speaker 2 (53:18):
If I get raptured, I'm letting you guys rock paper
scissors for OJ and Monica.
Speaker 1 (53:26):
Can't we just split custody, like I get one stuck
against another one?
Speaker 3 (53:29):
Well, yeah, but who wants to you get one pregnant
and one not.
Speaker 1 (53:34):
Yeah, I don't want all that responsibility. I'll take the
non impregnated shrimp on my way to heaven, I suppose you.
Speaker 4 (53:44):
Yeah, I already have a pregnant one in my house.
I got a dog. It's post surgery, so bring it on.
Speaker 6 (53:51):
Yeah, those shrimp possible bulls have to be terrible and
sell the out pass, all right.
Speaker 1 (53:56):
It sounds like my It sounds like the Dolphins first
half spread according to the Rapture Stats. Thanks so much, Evan,
that's going to do it for today's episode special thanks
to our producers David Paine and Gifford Gold. The Favorites
will return with our next episode on Thursday, right here
on the Action Network YouTube page, where we will talk
Week four bets and make our official plays for the week.
We'll see you next time here on the Favorites presented
(54:18):
by DraftKings. It's cash these tickets Happy Rapture.
Speaker 3 (54:29):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Hosts And Creators
Chad Millman
Simon Hunter
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