September 30, 2025 • 48 mins
After an ugly Monday Night Football double header, Action Network hosts Stuckey and Brandon Kravitz return to preview NFL Week 5. With Kendra off celebrating a Jaguars win in The Bay, the duo moves their sights to a new week as they discuss learning and growing while betting the NFL and planting their flag early in the week on a few Week 5 games. Finally, we get a primer to the weekly NFL Primer courtesy of Action Director of Research Evan Abrams, delivering everything needed to start digging into the betting week in the NFL.
Check out the Action Network App and sign up for Action Pro for instant notifications from our top experts. Get $20 off with promo code POD20.
Click here to instantly tail some of the bets from today's episode with quick slips!
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
Welcome to the Favorites Podcast presented by DraftKings. The crown
is yours. Your Favorites duo is back. I'm Brandon Kravitz
joined by Stucky Kendra out on a Jags bender for today,
but we got plenty to get to and we'll catch
her up on Thursday's episode.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Today, we've got.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
Our plant the Flag games for week five, a breakdown
of the needle moving storylines, and of course the main
event on Tuesday's Evans Tuesday primer. Stucky the shirt has
been purchased. This goes back a couple of lost bets
ago to you. I'm getting dog walked over here with
these head to head bets with you. It's I don't
(00:48):
know if you can see this. It says the cutest
pumpkin in the patch. So I kind of mit you
in the middle with the stuff that you sent over.
But credit to you. You've been killing me in these yep.
Speaker 3 (00:58):
Now you gotta about the Falcons money line against the bill,
so I'll put some more money in your pocket. Oh,
I didn't even mention we buried the lead. We hit
our our parlay because we bullied you into a bunch
of picks.
Speaker 1 (01:09):
You didn't like and ironically enough, because I'm not just
going to place a bet that I don't wholeheartedly believe in.
I'm glad that the Favorites as a group that we
won our parlay.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
This was the first.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Week that I didn't put the parlay in the app
on my individual account.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
I actually did not.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
I didn't financially benefit, but I hope that all of
you did. I had two of the three. I was
on the Rams minus three and a half. The Giants
plus the six and a half was my personal play,
so I was on that. I just couldn't get to
the window on the Jags. I was big on the
forty nine ers last week, but that was a prove
it game for me. Jacksonville showed me a little something
in that one. By the way, how'd the solo pod go?
(01:50):
Your solo podcasting careers taken off?
Speaker 2 (01:52):
From what I hear, I.
Speaker 3 (01:53):
Got good feedback on it, so people seem to enjoy it.
I love listening to myself talk so and I can ramble,
So yeah, it was it went okay. I don't know.
It's hard to judge a solo pod though, Like when
if you listen back yourself because you agree with everything
(02:14):
you say, it's your own thoughts, and there's no one
else to say anything.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
So I just always end up going down in some
hole that, like, I have a hard time digging my
way back out of. But I don't think people out
there that are listening realize how hard it is to
do what you did on Sunday night, to just go
thirty minutes with no feedback at all on the shit
that you're throwing out there.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
Yeah, and I had no notes, no outline. I decided
to do it last minute, just as soon as the
game ended, and as soon as the Raiders game ended,
which was just a gut punch because I had the Raiders.
I was like, oh my.
Speaker 1 (02:43):
God, you had a good Sunday, though, Is that part
of the reason. I mean, you were probably feeling it
a little bit.
Speaker 3 (02:48):
Yeah, I had a good Sunday. It could have been
a big one. I mean, just like last Sunday with
the Rams, like the games like that are such big
swings for your day and hopefully they just even out
of the course of the year. But I just haven't
got any I haven't got a single game in the
last minute to go my way. They've all gone against me.
Anyone that's a close coin flip has gone against me,
but that's that's what happens sometimes in the NFL. But
looking forward to this week, I mean, hopefully the games
(03:11):
are better than last night. Last night was horrendous. I mean,
I thought the reps were really bad. I thought the
Jets and the Bengals both got jobbed. Fortunately it didn't
matter for the Bengals, they just got dominated. It wouldn't
have mattered regardless. I'm worried about the Bengals quit factor,
like after they got down, like just all of the
(03:35):
the body language, the bickering. It's bad. It's bad now,
like part of me wants to potentially buy low. And
then this week off back to back twenty five plus
point losses, well.
Speaker 2 (03:47):
For you to this point, what's that worked out well
for you to this point?
Speaker 3 (03:50):
Yeah, I mean it's usually how I look to bet
the NFL, and they've looked they played a Flores defense,
the Broncos defense, like they're gonna get a break this
week at home two against the Lions, who don't generate
nearly as much pressure as either one of those teams
who are like one to two in pressure rate. But
I feel it's just if they get behind the defense
(04:13):
is so bad, like the Lions is still gonna be
able to gash through them. But at ten I could
only look their way. I thought the Jets did legit
I didn't have any money on the game. I kind
of liked the Dolphins in the over which both hit
didn't play either, but I thought the Jets legitimately got
jobbed and they should have won that game. If you
look at net success rate for the week, so of
(04:33):
the teams that won, the luckiest team the two luckiest
teams were the rate are the Bears and the luckiest
was the Dolphins. They were like minus fifteen percent net
success rate. I mean, you look at that game. They
got out gained four o four to three hundred, the
yards per play seven point one to five point four
(04:53):
the Jets. The fumbles were killer. The Jets didn't score
in either red zone trip, they lost the turn of
a battle three nothing, and the Jets had thirteen penalties
for one hundred and one yards. So I know the
Jets deserve to win that game, and they were a
bit unlucky and got jobbed by the refs there. But
(05:14):
both those teams are very bad. It was but I
did think the Jets got job. I'm looking to fade
Miami this week in Carolina. That might be my plant
flag game off a fraudulent win short week now no
Tyreek Hill going up against a zone heavy defense where
Tuoa can really struggle against and you can really slow
down that offense. So that might be my plant to
(05:34):
flag game. But looking forward to better games than what
we saw last night. That was a rough Monday night doubleheader.
Speaker 1 (05:41):
Not all double headers are created equal. That was definitely
one that I think we could have lived without. I
had the dual screen going, and I didn't really enjoy
much of it outside of the fact that my Dolphins
did get their first win of the season. You lose
your star wide receiver in the process. I think in
some ways it can actually help the way that they
operate offensively, but we'll get to that in a seconds.
Before I move off completely of how you've just dog
(06:03):
walked me with these bets, I want to point out
something because there's I'm firmly of the belief I'm a
generally optimistic person.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
You either win in sports.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
Betting or you learn, and when you get smashed, whether
it's in a head to head with a podcast partner
or friend, or on your betting accounts. If you're not
taking notes of why it happened, then you're doing yourself
no favors. You astutely pointed out this weekend teams that
lost by thirty plus last week went two and zero
against the spread. That was until the Bengals with the
(06:32):
bed on Monday Night football. And so I kind of
have to take this one on the chin. I overreacted,
and it's the worst thing that you can do in
NFL betting. And it's not even about losing units off
of it. Because I didn't bet on the Washington Commanders.
That was the biggest head to head a battle that
you and I had. I just lost an opportunity to
(06:53):
bet on what was clearly a sharp side with the
Atlanta Falcons. You have to be willing to stomach these things,
and I think that that is the balance.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
There are some teams.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
Out there that you just simply shouldn't trust your money with.
We'll talk about why. Tennessee is probably their example number
one on that. But after a blowout loss, if we're
talking about one bad week, a blowout or just an
off game, that's not an indication of a team that
you need to put in bet jail.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
So lesson learned for me. One of the changes that
I made.
Speaker 1 (07:22):
Off of this stuckey, and this is partially thanks to
chat GPT, I did ask what they're looking at as
far as a margin of victory cap the numbers that
I generate myself, which are not Gospel people. I'm very
new at the power rating system, as evident with my
Panthers rating from a week ago, but I have a
cap to margin of victory now at twenty one, and
(07:44):
honestly I'm thinking about even lowering that.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
But that was one of the things that I adjusted
for myself.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Hey, I'm happy that you're taking the time to try
and learn and improve and iterate on what you're working on.
That's all you can do. And yeah, are like, I
don't have I don't put any team in bet jail,
as evidence by my love in the past for betting
on the Titans. My best win of the week was
the Titans not covering and me not having money any
(08:11):
money on it. But they're historically I think I've probably
made out better by not doing that. But historically there
usually is a team maybe two that we'll just never cover.
The market will never catch up. It'll they'll be the
sharps will still bet them. I mean, I'm going back
like ten fifteen years there were Browns teams fifteen, fifteen,
(08:34):
twenty years ago. A lot of Browns teams over the
years that were so bad that would never cover, that
would always take money and then shit the bed. So
that there usually is a team maybe two, and it
has been the Titans for under Callahan over the past
two years. I mean, they're three and eighteen against the spread.
(08:55):
It's that that is stunning, like a stunning number with
an efficient market like the NFL, because the market will
keep dropping them and they just still keep not covering.
It's it's stunning. So yeah, like I bet Jail, I
think you can reserve for like I don't do it,
(09:15):
but it probably would have helped me in the past.
But you can reserve for like that one team that
is just isn't covering and you're just like, all right,
there's this team is there's just something seriously wrong, And
I think with the Titans it's injuries, but it's also
it's just a stat at the coaching, Like the coaching
is that bad that it's it makes everything even worse.
Than it already is for Tennessee.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
I think the thing in looking back, if you're going
to put a team in bet jail, I think it
has to be a team that you you just have
to realize you have to cut your losses. You've bet
on them for multiple weeks in a row and they
continue to lose your money. I mean, you do have
to get to a point where you're just not that
stubborn about it and you continue betting on teams that
aren't winning for you. Where I look back in Atlanta
(09:56):
is I was on Atlanta plus three and a half
a week before they got blown out.
Speaker 2 (10:01):
So it's not like this team cost me any money.
Speaker 1 (10:04):
I just decided that I hated them, and that's Honestly,
this sounds so counterintuitive, but you'll probably agree with it.
One of the worst things you can do is an
NFL better is watch the games. I mean, it really does.
It just throws you off because it's hard not to.
Football is such an emotional sport. It's hard not to
(10:25):
emotionally react to what you see.
Speaker 3 (10:28):
I disagree. I mean, I think for a lot of people, yes,
but I mean I've watched every snap of red zone
since it's like I've never missed the snap of the
NFL for you, from start to finish on a Sunday
of my life.
Speaker 2 (10:42):
Stay on red Zone.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
By the way, I think it's an important note for
sports betters out there.
Speaker 3 (10:46):
Yeah, I zone on, and then I'll have I have
three other screens that I'll have other games on, so
I've like I usually have the red Zone and unless
it's like a really good game or the Raven sometimes
it's a really good game, I'll have that on my
main and then there's two. I have two, but a
lot of times it's Red Zone on top, and then
I'll have two games that I want to watch underneath,
and then by my laptop that I'm rotating through games.
(11:09):
I like to keep trying, like number one, the impact
of injuries. Looking at schematic stuff. I mean, like, for example,
the Chargers right now, I don't want to bet on
them against Washington because I don't I don't know what
they're gonna do about their offensive line. It was a
disaster against now the Giants have a really good front,
(11:32):
but they I mean they once they lost Joe All,
I mean, they had Austin Deculus in there. Left tackle
Bradley Boseman's been the worst center in the league. You
already lost your right tackle before the season, or you're
left tackle before the season, and then you have to
move all over. That's a mess. Like so and Beckdam
wasn't playing. I don't know what they're gonna do. They
(11:53):
might take this salar and kick them out the left tackle.
If they get becked them back, they might replace their
center this week. But Herbert had no chance, and it
led to two picks that led to two giant scores
that both of them are almost picked sixes. But like
seeing stuff like that, I think is really beneficial for me.
But I agree like that it can lead if you're
(12:15):
more of a casual better it can lead to some
of those overreactions you know when you're watching.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
And I think specifically with that, like when we're talking
about blowout. It's not necessarily I'm certainly not sitting here
advocating don't watch the NFL, but when it comes to
those those extreme results, it's hard for that to not
skew your opinion of what it is you're watching.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
A lot of people are going to look at get
team the wins by thirty and they're like, oh, this
team's a wagon, I'm betting them next week, or a
team that loses by thirty, then you're you watch them
look horrendous the entire game. You're naturally going to say,
why would I want to put my money on that
team after I just saw how poorly they look, which
is more difficult than just looking at a box score
(12:56):
and seeing like, oh, they lost by thirty. If you
actually watched it, it can be more difficult. But I
don't care. I mean, I've seen enough NFL and week
to week. I mean, like, look, we just saw Atlanta.
We just saw Michael Pennix go against the Panthers defense,
which is not great by any stretch spotifyve defense. He
looked like he never played football before.
Speaker 1 (13:14):
He looked like that was the problem that was and
that that's the issue specifically that I'm pointing out as
I watched the guy that couldn't get the ball to
the twenty yard line.
Speaker 3 (13:22):
But I've seen it enough. It's one week. Next week,
what did you go twenty and twenty five or three
twelve two touchdowns? That's that's just that's just the nature
of the NFL. Like the Chargers looked unstoppable lose at
the Giants, and there's there's countless examples of that happening.
So yeah, I would agree with you that it can
(13:44):
lead into that overreaction if you're if you're watching, but uh,
you just got to keep in your keep in the
back of your head like it's a week to week league.
Don't overreact too much. So uh yeah, but that's I've
been doing it a long time, so I don't. I
don't really get too higher or too low on teams.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
The Favorites is sponsored by DraftKings and in partnership with DraftKings,
we'd like to tell you the next great touchdown is
coming and you can bet on it right now. New
customers bet five dollars and get two hundred dollars in
bonus bets. That's right, New customers, turn five bucks into
two hundred if your bet wins paid instantly in bonus
bets to get started. Use the promo code Favorites when
(14:25):
signing up once more, that's Code Favorites at DraftKings. When
signing up to get on board, the crown is yours.
So before we get to the sides, let's talk about
the main dish, the three top stories across the league,
moving lines Tyreek Hill on the shelf for a while
after dislocated me from last night. How does that change
your perception of the Miami Dolphins moving forward, if at all.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
I mean, I thought he'll started to look okay the
past two weeks had a little bit more juice. This
team's bad, though, I mean, so you just lose one
more weapon, makes them easier to defend. You don't to
worry as much about the deep threat you really want to.
The Jets don't have the ideal defense schematically that you
want to use against the Dolphins. But they still, I mean,
(15:09):
they dominated that game. They were ne plus fifteen success right,
a fumble at the one lost turnover batt of three
nothing got crushed and like they should have won that game. Still,
the Dolphins are a bad team. I mean, like their
centers playing well. The rest of the offensive line is
a mess. Now you don't have Hill. Their defense is bad,
like they're anything in a lot of pressure, which is
supposed to be their strength. Their secondary is one of
(15:30):
the worst in the league. So this is a really
bad team. And it cut like it's unfortunate because I
thought you could have gotten something for Hill, right, I
thought that what the Dolphins should do this year is
just like fire sale. You gotta start this over and
so you're not going to get anything for Hill now.
(15:51):
But yeah, I bet the Panthers this week. It's number one.
Short week off of a fraudulent win. Panthers all off
of a blowout loss, right trying to buy low on
Carolina Carolina kind of a fraudulent like it was that
was closer than the final score indicated like they got.
(16:12):
They they blew that game on special teams. I mean basically,
the Patriots scored two touchdowns on punt returns, they missed
a field the Pants missed a field goal, they missed
extra point. They were minus eighteen in special point special
teams points and over the first twenty minutes of that game.
So I think that Bryce Young should be comfortable here.
A lot of opportunities downfield, like this Dolphins defense is
(16:32):
really really bad. I mean, the Jets just put a
four hundred yards of offense, So I think Bryce Young
could do enough. The Panthers did have offensive line injuries,
but Kate Mazes looked good at center for they had
their guard who's pretty good is on ir They brought
in this practice squad player to start after Zabala, their
backup got hurt. I don't know why, but then they
(16:52):
put in Brady Christensen, who was their highest graded player
last week, so he looked good at guard. So, like
I'm not, their offensive line still looks solid and that's
why the strongest points. So like the Panthers offensive line
is world's apart. And then schematically the Panthers, they're going
to play a ton of zone, which is what you
need to do against this two offense, and he's really
struggling to see the field right now against zone defenses.
(17:15):
So I like the match up in the spot. I
played Carolina cheap minus one out there for this week,
and it's gonna be a long year for the Dolphins.
Speaker 1 (17:23):
Yeah, it feels like Carolina is the right side. I
do think that in some ways this can actually help
the Dolphins offense operate. Tua tends to want to forced
feed Tyreek Hill, and he's just not really that kind
of quarterback. He's got to get the ball out quick,
he's got to spread the ball around. I don't think
we should sleep on the impact that Darren Waller had
for this team in the red zone. I was kind
of surprised.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
He actually really good.
Speaker 1 (17:45):
The red zone stats for the Dolphins are awesome. The
Dolphins now ring second in terms of scoring percentage in
the red zone.
Speaker 2 (17:53):
So I think the having Darren Waller helps.
Speaker 1 (17:56):
That's a new thing for them. But Oli Gordon gives
them a little bit of toughness in between the tackles
that they haven't had in the last couple of years.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
So I do think that.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
They can operate like perhaps more of a ground and
pound just get the ball out quick in the screen
game type of team and not have to worry about all.
We got to get Tyreek Hill the ball deep down
the field so that we can satisfy our Devia wide receiver.
There could be a benefit to this. I'm not making
a case for betting the Dolphins this week. The Panthers
do feel like the right side, but I wouldn't be
(18:26):
surprised if the Dolphins offense continued to look similar to
what it looked like last night.
Speaker 3 (18:31):
Yeah, the problem. The problem is that you want to
become a ground and pound team. Their offensive liner now
is in rough shape. I mean, you got rookies on
the left side who aren't I mean, Paul is playing okay.
Their left guard is playing really poorly. Your right side
of your offensive line is kind of a mess. So like,
that's that's hard to do when your offensive line is
in rough shape. They have some injuries, so yeah, I imagine.
(18:53):
But also in a short week after losing Hill, that's
not ideal either, right, like one of your key cogs
and now you're on a short week heading on the road.
So yeah, I'll be curious to see what McDaniel.
Speaker 2 (19:05):
Like.
Speaker 3 (19:05):
I think McDaniel is still solid. I don't like. I
think that he's kind of lost it as a head coach.
I like he seems checked out. I don't know, like
he's not as engaged as he once was. But I
think he would still be a very good offensive coordinator somewhere.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
Yeah, he definitely has lost a little bit of that humor.
He's just kind of leaning into the sad dork vibe.
Are you are you buying the renewed drama around Philly? Yes,
they won, Yes they covered, they're undefeated. But Aj Brown
another dismal stat line two catches seven yards doesn't seem
to be impacting what the Eagles want to do. But
passing wise, I mean, this team is bad. They are
(19:42):
there's no explosion in the offense. They were in dead
last and passing offense. That's behind the Tennessee Titans. I
mean they still score, But is this an issue for
you moving forward to you just simply throw it out.
Speaker 3 (19:56):
Yeah. I think the issue is the offensive coordinator. Like
it hasn't cost him yet, but I mean they should
have lost to the Rams. They got to play the
Bucks with all all the Bucks injuries, but they went
Hurts went oh eight for zero yards. The offense had
negative nine yards in the second half. Now granted that
that includes a thirty yard safety. Negative thirty yard safety
they took at the end of the game. Okay, let's
(20:18):
give them twenty yards for the second half, and then
against the Rams in the first half they had thirty
three yards. Yeah, I think the offensive coordinator, I think
is the issue. This is what I was worried about
coming into the year. Now it hasn't cost them yet, right,
you got to like, you got to play the Cowboys
and they're awful defense in week one. You know you
benefit you have that crazy comeback against the Rams, and
(20:39):
you know you got to play the Bucks with a
bunch of injuries. But they could have easily lost the game.
They've had a couple like special teams touchdowns. Now a
lot of people are gonna yell about the yards per
play margin, like the Eagles are like one of the
worst teams in the NFL that you can't look at
the Eagles yards per play. They're kind of like a
service academy because like if they get to third and three,
like if they get to you know, one or two yards,
(21:00):
it's basically it's going to be a first down. Like,
so that's basically a successful play, whereas it's not for
other teams. So their yards for play is a funky case.
But I am concerned and look aj Brown, these guys
want to get the ball, like they're receivers, receivers, but
like these really good receivers by nature are like are
(21:20):
kind of divas, and they want the ball. They want
to be involved, Like they don't want to watch, you know,
just go out there and block the entire game. Watch
a rugby you know, your your toush pushes all day.
So yeah, there's got to there. It looks like there's
gonna be some growing frustration and we'll see it. Very
The Eagles are a very interesting team to like price
(21:41):
and like way, it's it's very bizarre, so they'll get
I will argue though, that I could argue that Lane
Johnson is their most important offensive player. I mean the
numbers with him without him have been insane, and he
was out in the second half. We'll see his status.
His status this week is huge because you're going up
against that Broncos front. The Broncos edge rushers have been
(22:03):
menaces all all season and all of last year. So
whether or not Lane Johnson plays this week, I haven't
seen an update. We'll get it's only Tuesday. We'll get
updates on the practice reports tomorrow. But his status is huge.
He's been super important. But yeah, I'm definitely worried about
the Eagles offense and like, let's see their upcoming schedule
(22:27):
because the weird thing is I now say to myself, well,
they just can't get behind. But the one time they
got behind, they were forced to throw they they did
move it and come back from eighteen downs.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
So they've won every which way already this season.
Speaker 3 (22:37):
And the blocks are unsustainable, like they're not going to
keep blocking field goals and punts for touchdowns. But their
upcoming schedules, you know, home against the Broncos at the Giants,
at the Vikings home against the Giants. So yeah, I
mean they easily could be They could if they win
(22:59):
this week, they could get out to eight no. And
we still might have questions like they could be eight no.
This happened a couple of years ago though as well.
And you know this happens to the Steelers a lot.
Like you just have these teams that start eight to
no that have underlying issues because the schedule and just
late game luck is broken. Right, So I don't know
what we should get a better answer this week, because
(23:22):
the the Broncos do have a really really good defense
and uh so we'll see. But maybe Boonix just throws
the game away.
Speaker 2 (23:30):
But yeah, they're coming the coordinator.
Speaker 3 (23:32):
For me, it's a play calling, the scheming, and yeah
that it looks like there's some some trouble brewing, which
is weird for a four and oh team, but that's
what happens with receivers when you don't get.
Speaker 2 (23:41):
Them the ball.
Speaker 1 (23:42):
Bronco's coming off of a blowout win, short week for them.
Those are kind of teams we look at and go,
I don't know if we should back them.
Speaker 2 (23:50):
Maybe blow down.
Speaker 3 (23:51):
Yeah, but I also can't. I can't back. I can't
play points of the Eagles right now exactly. It feels
like ales and a half, like are they the new Chiefs?
There's gonna win all these weird close games. And it
does in different ways.
Speaker 2 (24:03):
It does feel like look.
Speaker 1 (24:04):
Pretty, which is why if you if you're catching over
a field goal at plus four and a half with
the Denver Broncos on DK, I think right now, if
I had to bet the game, I'd be on Denver.
Speaker 3 (24:15):
I agree, I agree, especially with Lane Johnson's status up
in the air.
Speaker 1 (24:18):
The Ravens got dusted by the Chiefs. Lamargo's out with
an injury. Now they're one in three. They are still
minus three seventy to make the playoffs. I had to
take a triple look at this. Where do you sit
on that? That just seems like an insane number for
a team that could be without It looks like they're
gonna be without Lamar this week too. They could be
one in four by next week and and you're still
(24:41):
getting plus money on them to miss the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (24:44):
Yeah, one in four. I think all the teams that
have historically started one in four five for only five
percent have made the playoffs. Now you have to remember
a lot of teams that are one and four are
really bad teams. So and since twenty twenty one, like
the playoffs have expandits it was a little easier now,
like the Rams did it last year. And the Ravens
(25:05):
do have a really good roster when healthy. The problem
is right now, if you look at their depth chart
in June, they're projected depth chart right now, twelve of
those starters are hurt. So I don't know who's gonna
play this week, but a couple of their defenders are out.
Matta Bouche is out for the year. He's enormous. I've
talk about this all last week. He's an enormous piece
of the run defense. They're laid down pass rush. Kyle
(25:28):
van Ney is sorely missed. But now you've got injuries
to Rokwan Smith, Marlin Humphreyan. These are all Pro bowlers
that I'm listing. Ronnie Stanley got hurt last week. I mean,
Wiggins the corner got hurt, Lamar got hurt. Ricard their
Pro Bowl full back been hurt. I mean, I just
just goes on and on. The Rookies aren't playing well.
On defense, they're not ready to like fill in. The
(25:51):
whole defensive line is in shambles, like this looks this
is like the worst d in the league and that
it's I don't know many defenses that would like everyone
wants to crucify Zach Orr and Harball, like I don't
know how many defenses can survive having like five or
six Pro bowlers out of like it's it's gonna look
ugly like I toold. Now, the offensive line is definitely
(26:14):
an issue as well, like the guards are not playing
well and it's impacted Lamar who doesn't look the same.
But they needed to get back to their offense with
like Ricard and likely where they can pose a lot
of matchup prompts. I'm not worried about the offense other
than the health the defense. I A'm worried about to
the health. So yeah, I would not a million years
take them. Now. The good thing working for the Raids
is they could finish like eight and nine. They could
(26:35):
finish like nine to eight and win the division because
I mean, the Bengals look toast with Browning. The Browns
are probably gonna start Gabriel this week. I mean they're
I mean they're not going anywhere, And are the Steelers
gonna like the Steelers A probably gonna go like eight,
nine to nine and eight. Well'll probably go nine and eight,
that's Tomlin. So if this, if the Ravens can get
to like nine and eight, because of their division, they're
(26:59):
gonna have a shot to win the division without getting
to like eleven twelve. So that's working in the favorite.
The Burrow injury, the Browns mess, and I'm not sure
I fully bind it like the Steelers being a ten
plus win team yet so they could still win the division,
which is going to give them a little hope if
they can get healthy. But whatever that price is out
there to make the playoffs, I certainly would not get that.
Speaker 2 (27:19):
Is three seventy. You can't do it.
Speaker 1 (27:21):
But it does feel like the wild card option is
starting to fly out the window. The Houston line for
this weekend opened at seven and a half. It's now
down to three and a half. That indicates a strong
feeling in the market that Lamar Jackson is not going
to play in this game.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
The defense is.
Speaker 3 (27:37):
Kind of hedged a little bit. If I had a guess,
like it's I.
Speaker 1 (27:42):
Think he's worth about six six and a half, I
would think, and it's a four point difference.
Speaker 3 (27:48):
I would argue seven. He's worth because number one, especially
one week like after getting hurt, because the offense is
going to look so like is there any is there
any bigger difference between quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Cooper Rush,
like on what they bring to the offense and how
you would design things.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
What's that it's a different sport.
Speaker 3 (28:12):
Yeah, completely different sports, So that he's worth seven, And
then this line doesn't also account for all the other
injuries for Baltimore. I think if he's ruled if Lamar
Jackson's ruled out, I don't know. I think this would
and depending on all the other Ravens injuries, but it
looks like they're going to be without a couple of guys,
I don't I just has to close under three, I think.
I don't know it. Those are harder to quantify the
(28:35):
non quarterback injuries. But if if if you told me
right now Lamar is out and I know about some
of the other injuries on the Ravens, I mean, I
think I would take I would certainly take the Texans
plus three and a half.
Speaker 1 (28:52):
A quick look at our ats standings report, the fade list,
the bet jail, which you know, maybe we're limiting who
goes to prison, but no more unbeatens. We've got six
three and one teams against the spread out there Colts, Jags, Lions, Seahawks, Rams,
and Eagles. Thank you for all of your funding. Are
any of those ripe for a fade of the teams
(29:13):
I just mentioned Colts, Jags, Lions, Seahawks, Rams, and Eagles.
Speaker 3 (29:20):
Um Colts. I was impressed with the Colts last week.
They got a bit unlucky. They were a snake pit Jags.
I love the Jags. I think the Jags still could
be undervalued. I bet the Jags on Monday number one.
Their special teams are really good. That's noteworthy. Their offense schematically,
their offensive defense are so much better. I love King Cohen.
(29:41):
Liam Cohen is a beast. Him going after Salah for
said keep my name out of your mouth because he
was accusing him of stealing signs. Although he said they
were like doing it in a legal way.
Speaker 2 (29:53):
You don't say that.
Speaker 3 (29:54):
I know I'm saying these lords sons. You didn't call
him like a liar, but you still don't say that.
So yeah, but it wasn't as bad as like hey
or a cheater. He was trying to get him a compliment.
But yeah, that's not how you do it. So no,
I'm not looking to fait the Jags.
Speaker 1 (30:09):
Who else that would be the Colts, Jags, Lions are interesting,
but they have the Bengals, Seahawks, Rams, Eagles. Eagles might
be at the top of the list.
Speaker 3 (30:23):
Yeah, Eagles for sure, and the Lions possibly coming up here.
Like because you have to remember they over the last
three weeks. Remember they remember they got they couldn't score
on Green Bay now was week one. But they then
(30:44):
they got the Bears, who at the time had their
entire defense was out right like it was a disaster,
and they haven't They weren't able to adjust like they
were playing with backup corners, backup linebackers. It was a disaster.
And going to Detroit playing them indoors. Then they got
the Ravens, and I talked about before this game with
the Ravens defense is in shambles, right, like it's horrific. Now,
(31:09):
they had a great game plan for it was the
best I've seen in containing Lamar Jackson. Right, it's not
a scene that gets a ton of pressure, but how
they approached him scrambling it was awesome. But they got
to play the Ravens defense, which was and then they
played the Browns and like the Browns if that game
was closer than the final score. I mean, the Browns
had three turnovers, was basically a pick six. And so
(31:31):
they've benefited from like a nice little stretch here of
getting some breaks that might be a little under the radar,
like the Ravens defensive injuries, the Bears defensive injuries, right,
the Browns being inft on offense. Now they have the Bengals,
They're at the Bengals. It's a it's a good spot
for the Bengals. Like, I know, it's short week, but
the Lions have the Chiefs on deck. Do the Do
(31:54):
the Bengals care? That's what I have to figure out,
Like because this is probably as low as you're going
to get on the Bengals. You just saw him get
blown out two weeks in a row. You saw Jake
Browning look horrendous. But they played Flores and the Broncos defense.
The Lions have a bunch of injuries in their secondary,
which I have to look into. Do they care? Like
(32:15):
I gotta try to get the vibes in that team,
because the vibes were so bad after they went down
and if they go down again, because the Lions still
should be able to score. Like the Bengals defense is atrocious,
but Lion lines are probably up their lines and Eagles.
For me, I would say.
Speaker 1 (32:29):
Dan Campbell and Jared Goff are just impossible to fade.
These guys As a combo, they cover the spread at
a rate of like seventy three per Right.
Speaker 3 (32:38):
Now we're ten and a half, Like they were just
favored by ten at home against the Browns.
Speaker 2 (32:44):
I just don't.
Speaker 1 (32:46):
I mean, I've been caught in this, so I'm not
going to argue with you about it because I've been
taking a beating on this.
Speaker 2 (32:51):
But to me, this feels like such a pass.
Speaker 3 (32:55):
Like you can't like ten and a half with De
Troit and Sinsey. That's outrageous.
Speaker 2 (32:59):
It's outdoor golf. This should be a Bengals bet for you.
Speaker 3 (33:03):
This is very most likely will be Like I'm ninety
percent sure I'm gonna be on the Bengals and it's
gonna hurt.
Speaker 1 (33:11):
I don't really want to spend much time talking about
the bad teams, but are we good with forget about jail?
Can we just throw the Titans in solitary confinement? At
this point, they're eight and a half point underdogs against
the Cardinals.
Speaker 2 (33:23):
How in the world do you bet either of these teams?
Speaker 1 (33:26):
The Cardinals should not be eight and a half point
favorites against almost anybody, But.
Speaker 3 (33:30):
The Titans will take money to that this morning.
Speaker 2 (33:33):
Like, who's who's doing that?
Speaker 3 (33:39):
Now? There is a price. There's a price for every
like every.
Speaker 2 (33:43):
Team for me, all right, what's your Titans price?
Speaker 4 (33:48):
Now?
Speaker 3 (33:48):
They think like the Arizona should be able to run
the ball this week, and then eventually the dam is
gonna break. That's what happens with the Titans now too,
like with Sweat on ir their defense eventually, because it
was six nothing in the fourth and they lost twenty
six to nothing. Their defense because their offense gives are
no help, and then their defense finally wears down and
then it's Simmons just can't make any plays anymore. It's
(34:09):
getting triple team the entire game, and then like what
else you got? Basically there's like a one man team.
It's like Jeffrey Simmons, he should get they should trade him,
like get let him go be on a winner. It's
sad my price, man, I mean, my my numbers say
(34:29):
I should bet him if it's ten.
Speaker 1 (34:32):
But I have the Cardinals as nine point favorites in
this game, so I'm pretty much on on market here Cardinals.
Speaker 3 (34:39):
I think I did fourteen to be like, okay, I'm
one betting.
Speaker 2 (34:45):
This is barely a teaser spot for you, tee.
Speaker 3 (34:48):
I think the Cardinals are a good teaser spot if
you can have cheap teasers, Like if you wanted to
go to Cardinals and let's say Cardinals.
Speaker 1 (34:59):
Would you buy the right now in case Lamar doesn't play,
then you'd get them at nine and a half.
Speaker 3 (35:06):
No, I think the time to do that open at
seven and a half, Like that was the time to
buy the Texas without much downside risk. I don't know
one in three if Lamar has a chance, he's gonna play,
So I don't know. At three and a half, it's
not worth it to me. But yeah, a good teaser
would be I mean, look, it's not across a three
(35:29):
and seven, but the Browns like who the points in
that game, the London game, points in that game are
going to be That game could end three nothing. The Vikings.
So I think the Browns might start Gabriel on a
short on an international travel week, going to the rookie.
(35:50):
You're already out of like they're running out of receivers.
Tilman's hurt, Carter's hurt. I think they're going to start
thrash and Isaiah Bond would with Judy their tackles. They
just had a trade for Cam Robinson, and I think
he's gonna start. Conklin maybe he'll be back at right tackle,
but he has a right elbow injury, Like he can't
really play right tackle unless you were like one hundred
(36:12):
percent with your right elbow. So you're gonna might have
a rookie quarterback, like a messy tackle situation, new receivers,
new tackles, like in an international travel week against the
Flores defense. And then on the other side the Vikings,
Brian O'Neill is out the right tackle stud there's Ryan Kelly,
their center had another concussion and he's probably out. Their
(36:33):
left guard I think had risk surgery. Jackson the rookie
looks who's looked really good. Their offensive line is in shambles.
How are you gonna bock the Browns? So what I
think is gonna happen here. If you start a rookie,
you're just gonna like you just hand it off like
you run the ball thirty times. Because the Vikings run
dy has not been great, like even the Steelers round
on them. So you just run it here with Judkins,
a bunch who's been good against stack boxes so far.
(36:55):
Punt run, punt, wait for Garrett to strip Wentz Wentz
or McCarthy whoever's back there. Wait for basically the Giants
game plan of last week. Starting a rookie quarterback, run
run against the backup offensive line, wait for your defensive
line to force turnovers, and that's how they could win.
But this total is down to thirty six and a half,
(37:17):
so we're going ahead to head here because I know
you're on Minnesota. I get the spot like it's a
good spot play, but I had to take the points
because I mean the total thirty six and a half,
four and a half points of this game are gonna
feel like ten. Like you know how hard it is
for any of these season is score four points and
you're gonna be watching this game and be like.
Speaker 1 (37:36):
This might be on the this might be on the
don't watch list, but you mentioned it right there. Play
it in the flag on the Minnesota Vikings three and
a half if you can get it four and a
half on DraftKings. I bought it the second it opened.
We had this one circle of the week ago. I'm undeterred.
I get it with the numbers. Believe me, I would
(37:56):
love if this was shorter. The Vikings stay overseas, Browns
fly in back to back battles with NFC North competition,
massive edge on the Vikings. I do worry about the
offensive line issues for Minnesota. I think that's why this
line is creeping the way that it is. It looks
like the Browns have taken money early, but the Vikings
should be able to match defensive excellence in this game.
(38:17):
Minnesota is number one in terms of EPA per play
on defense, the Browns ring third or worst in terms
of pass blocking. This is Brian Flores blitz happy dream matchup.
And when you layer in the travel advantage, and when
we spotted this one a week ago for a reason,
I'm not going to look away from it.
Speaker 2 (38:35):
I'm on the Vikings.
Speaker 3 (38:36):
Well, we can do a head to head that here again.
Well this has.
Speaker 2 (38:40):
Gone so well for me. I'm so excited.
Speaker 3 (38:43):
Well, if Kendrick come up with it a wager on Thursday, Yeah,
I just had to take the points. If you're Stefanski
and at least Gabriel can move around a little bit,
you know, boot him out. But you just run the
ball here, like you don't even let you just run
it and punt it. Play so conservatively. Now, obviously, if
you get into a game state where you have to
you have to, and then it probably won't go well
(39:04):
because the receivers can't get separation, they can't pass block,
and then they're going to be going up against the
Flora's blitz. But you can run on this Minnesota defense,
and I just don't know a Minnesota is gonna block Cleveland.
Speaker 2 (39:17):
Like.
Speaker 3 (39:17):
This game is probably gonna come down to whoever makes
the mistake first. And there's a good chance that it's
Miles Garrett and that d line that can force that
first mistake, because you don't want either if either of
these teams have to play from behind in this game,
it's it's lights out. So I took the points. Well, well,
(39:38):
we'll come up with make sure you get the four
and a half out there at DraftKings. Every point in
this game is big, so we'll get Kendrick to come
up with a bet. But I am on the Browns.
I'll plant my flag on Let's go. Let's see at DraftKings.
I do like the Panthers, I do like the Saints.
Speaker 2 (39:57):
I'm with you on the Saints.
Speaker 3 (39:59):
That all right, I'll plan my flag on the Saints.
The Saints are not playing terribly Like they played toe
to toe with the Bills. A couple of plays here
and there they actually could out a real shot to
win that game. They were toe to toe with the
Cardinals to tote with the forty nine ers. The Seals
king got out of hand because the special teams. But
like from a success right down to down basis, they
were pretty close. They should be able to run the
(40:21):
ball here. The Giants like, look, I was impressed last week,
but there's there's They basically benefited from the charters offensive
line injuries. Two turnovers have led to two touchdowns. I
mean Dart threw for one hundred yards. It was better
than Russell Wilson. But now they have on tape what
some of the stuff that they want to do with
Dart going on the road here after a big win,
(40:41):
Saints trumph searching for their first win. Rattlers looked pretty good.
I think they'll be able to run the ball here.
The Saints still have some pretty good weapons and their
run defense I think can hold up, and especially without
the threat of Neighbors on the outside, that's going to
make things easier. So I'll plan my flag on the
Saints minus one, minus one and a half out there.
(41:02):
I think they get the victory at.
Speaker 1 (41:04):
Home, and the Giants were already in a good position
when Neighbors went down with the injury. It's a completely
different story when you already feel good about where you're
at in the game and you lose a star player.
Compared to starting a new week without the threat of
that player, yep, and I think that we really see
the impact of that now for the main event, no
(41:24):
betting week can start without it. It is the primer
courtesy of Evan Abrams Evan the Voice of God.
Speaker 2 (41:31):
Welcome to the show.
Speaker 1 (41:32):
What are the trends we need to be aware of
before we fire away on the apps?
Speaker 4 (41:36):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (41:36):
I kind of like this Tuesday, I'm the Voice of God,
and then Thursday I kind of swoop in with whatever
I have left and make decisions for you.
Speaker 4 (41:43):
Guys, So either way it works for me.
Speaker 5 (41:45):
I feel like I've been laughing on the sidelines here
because I just tweeted this and Stuck He's been all
over Carolina and I completely understand it. So Miami was
minus one and a half last night during the game,
the Tyreek injury happens, and about an hour or so
later it flips the Carolina last more and a half.
So the Panthers haven't won or one or covered a
game they were favored in since September of twenty twenty one,
(42:08):
four full years. They've lost ten straight as a favorite
in that spot. That is the longest losing streak as
a favorite since the nineteen seventy merger for any team.
Right now, Yeah, they are completely and utterly do I mean, honestly,
I think I like this side. This is such a
fun week in the sense that Stucky myself, other people
(42:30):
are going to be considering the Panthers and Saints as
maybe the better sides this slate is considering.
Speaker 3 (42:35):
Just I already have money down.
Speaker 5 (42:36):
I know, I know, I know, but I'm saying I'm
going that direction. Let me keep rolling here because I
just have a few closing favorites to six points are
more sixteen to two and one straight up this season
fewest outright losses for favorites that large through four games
since nineteen seventy nine, So after the start with four
post point faves, still kind of seeing it on.
Speaker 4 (42:58):
Obviously Green Bay Dall is the tie there.
Speaker 5 (43:01):
And then to me, Detroit and Tennessee what Detroit's doing
on the cover side fifty to twenty one and one
seventy percent since twenty twenty one, basically going to set
the record there for a five year span, and I
have it in my article, but from a fifty game
stretch ridiculous as well, best since the Vikings in sixteen
(43:23):
seventeen and then Tennessee three and eighteen ATS as you
guys mentioned, but even last twenty five for twenty and
one ATS, which would be the worst mark over a
twenty five game span since at least nineteen ninety. I
think the fun one is overseas, so that game and
when I say fun it's a relative term because total
(43:44):
down to thirty six and a half, which would be
the lowest of the fifty one international games for the
regular season we have sent overseas, So this might be
the absolute worst performance those fans have seen, but a
lot of fun stuff in the article this week. Sometimes
there isn't a lot this there's a lot.
Speaker 2 (44:02):
Is there anything on the Ravens without Lamar?
Speaker 4 (44:06):
If it goes on that way, I do, hold on,
let me pull that up.
Speaker 5 (44:10):
So what I found with Lamar is simply what everyone
kind of knows. Since twenty nineteen, five qbs have started
a game for Baltimore Lamar RG three, Anthony Brown, Josh Johnson,
Tyler Huntley. In the fourteen games without Lamar, they're four
and ten straight up, but nine and five ats. I
think the more important part is just the numbers in themselves.
(44:32):
Points per game twenty eight with Lamar, sixteen without, So
I think that's exactly.
Speaker 4 (44:39):
What you're getting in this matchup. If he's not there, and.
Speaker 5 (44:41):
I think stuck, He's right, you're middling that line right now.
Speaker 4 (44:45):
I think they're just playing the middle game.
Speaker 5 (44:46):
They don't know, so they're between seven and a half
and what do you think stuck without Lamar?
Speaker 4 (44:50):
What does that line end up at? Well?
Speaker 3 (44:52):
See, I think without with Lamar, this spread would have
been like nine and a half ten, which the Raven's
fully healthy, but they're not like all of the other injuries.
I think I probably would have made this line around
seven and seven and a half if Lamar was playing.
Without Lamar, I think it's like a touchdown drop, So
(45:15):
honestly I would make this, I don't know, Ravens minus one.
Speaker 4 (45:20):
The funny.
Speaker 5 (45:21):
The funny thing is is Lamar against the Texans absolutely
crushed them in his career. So like the matchup itself,
just looking holistically historically is great for Baltimore, means absolutely nothing.
Now with the defense being hobbled, he's hobbled, like the
matchup completely different. So yeah, I think in a normal
situation like preseason, this spread would have been like eight and.
Speaker 4 (45:43):
A half nine, so kind of fascinating.
Speaker 5 (45:46):
But Baltimore obviously in a really really tough situation.
Speaker 3 (45:50):
Yeah, and those the cluster d injuries are they're hard
to price, but like it's those a time you got
like four or five Pro bowlers that are hurt. Their
defensive line is in shambles, so like it's a couple
of points, I think.
Speaker 1 (46:02):
So the bet, it's the bet before the bet, because
if you think if you bet the Texans right now
at three and a half and there is no Lamar,
that's incredible value and that's the decision that you're gonna
have to make.
Speaker 3 (46:14):
But if you bet that Texas and there is a Lamar,
you're then your your shit out of luck. So I
think the time to do that was when it was
at plus seven and a half. I think it was
at plus seven a half some shops. I had someone
tweet me and I said, yeah, you should take this
because there's no not much downside risk. I don't think
it's going to be ten.
Speaker 5 (46:27):
I mean yesterday, yesterday at noon it was still six
and a half, Like you could have made decisions to
try to get in at a price and come back.
I think at three and a half it's it's a
little bit of a wait and see ie to a.
Speaker 3 (46:38):
Total pass, I think for me and that the total
the Browns Vikings total at thirty five and thirty six
and a half in a that we're getting to like
Brown like Cleveland home game with when it's like crazy
weather with all the winds off the lake type territory
with like that, that's a crazy low total. But like
(46:59):
I said on solo pod, like at thirty seven and
a half, I would I could only look under uh
for sure. So yeah, good stuff, Evan, and and I
think the Panthers Lions point is worth noting. And I
think what is the biggest takeaway there, It's the coaching.
(47:21):
I think that's what, like the market hasn't really fully
captured how bad Callahan is and how great Campbell has been,
being so aggressive on all of these fourth downs and
making all of these like plus ev decisions and just
they have an identity in that aspect, but they're they're
constantly being aggressive going on fourth downs, getting it, building margin,
(47:44):
keeping their foot on the gas. I think like that's
one of the primary drivers of those wide splits, is
it's like Callahan versus Campbell and how bad one has
been and how great the other has been.
Speaker 1 (47:57):
Imagine if you were just wise enough to just bet
the Lions every week and fade the Titans every week,
why don't we even.
Speaker 2 (48:02):
Have podcasts the folks that will do it for us?
Speaker 1 (48:04):
On today's episode special thanks to our producers David Paine
and Gifford Gould.
Speaker 2 (48:08):
Thank you Evan for the stats.
Speaker 1 (48:10):
Make sure you go and check out the primer over
at actionnetwork dot com. The Favorites will return on Thursday.
Kendro will be back with us as well. Make sure
you follow us on the Action Network YouTube page Week
five best Bets on Thursday. We'll see you right here
on the Favorites presented by Draft Gings. Let's catch these tickets.
Speaker 2 (48:27):
Like, Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you
or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help
is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred
Gambler
Welcome to the Favorites Podcast presented by DraftKings. The crown
is yours. Your Favorites duo is back. I'm Brandon Kravitz
joined by Stucky Kendra out on a Jags bender for today,
but we got plenty to get to and we'll catch
her up on Thursday's episode.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Today, we've got.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
Our plant the Flag games for week five, a breakdown
of the needle moving storylines, and of course the main
event on Tuesday's Evans Tuesday primer. Stucky the shirt has
been purchased. This goes back a couple of lost bets
ago to you. I'm getting dog walked over here with
these head to head bets with you. It's I don't
(00:48):
know if you can see this. It says the cutest
pumpkin in the patch. So I kind of mit you
in the middle with the stuff that you sent over.
But credit to you. You've been killing me in these yep.
Speaker 3 (00:58):
Now you gotta about the Falcons money line against the bill,
so I'll put some more money in your pocket. Oh,
I didn't even mention we buried the lead. We hit
our our parlay because we bullied you into a bunch
of picks.
Speaker 1 (01:09):
You didn't like and ironically enough, because I'm not just
going to place a bet that I don't wholeheartedly believe in.
I'm glad that the Favorites as a group that we
won our parlay.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
This was the first.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Week that I didn't put the parlay in the app
on my individual account.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
I actually did not.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
I didn't financially benefit, but I hope that all of
you did. I had two of the three. I was
on the Rams minus three and a half. The Giants
plus the six and a half was my personal play,
so I was on that. I just couldn't get to
the window on the Jags. I was big on the
forty nine ers last week, but that was a prove
it game for me. Jacksonville showed me a little something
in that one. By the way, how'd the solo pod go?
(01:50):
Your solo podcasting careers taken off?
Speaker 2 (01:52):
From what I hear, I.
Speaker 3 (01:53):
Got good feedback on it, so people seem to enjoy it.
I love listening to myself talk so and I can ramble,
So yeah, it was it went okay. I don't know.
It's hard to judge a solo pod though, Like when
if you listen back yourself because you agree with everything
(02:14):
you say, it's your own thoughts, and there's no one
else to say anything.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
So I just always end up going down in some
hole that, like, I have a hard time digging my
way back out of. But I don't think people out
there that are listening realize how hard it is to
do what you did on Sunday night, to just go
thirty minutes with no feedback at all on the shit
that you're throwing out there.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
Yeah, and I had no notes, no outline. I decided
to do it last minute, just as soon as the
game ended, and as soon as the Raiders game ended,
which was just a gut punch because I had the Raiders.
I was like, oh my.
Speaker 1 (02:43):
God, you had a good Sunday, though, Is that part
of the reason. I mean, you were probably feeling it
a little bit.
Speaker 3 (02:48):
Yeah, I had a good Sunday. It could have been
a big one. I mean, just like last Sunday with
the Rams, like the games like that are such big
swings for your day and hopefully they just even out
of the course of the year. But I just haven't
got any I haven't got a single game in the
last minute to go my way. They've all gone against me.
Anyone that's a close coin flip has gone against me,
but that's that's what happens sometimes in the NFL. But
looking forward to this week, I mean, hopefully the games
(03:11):
are better than last night. Last night was horrendous. I mean,
I thought the reps were really bad. I thought the
Jets and the Bengals both got jobbed. Fortunately it didn't
matter for the Bengals, they just got dominated. It wouldn't
have mattered regardless. I'm worried about the Bengals quit factor,
like after they got down, like just all of the
(03:35):
the body language, the bickering. It's bad. It's bad now,
like part of me wants to potentially buy low. And
then this week off back to back twenty five plus
point losses, well.
Speaker 2 (03:47):
For you to this point, what's that worked out well
for you to this point?
Speaker 3 (03:50):
Yeah, I mean it's usually how I look to bet
the NFL, and they've looked they played a Flores defense,
the Broncos defense, like they're gonna get a break this
week at home two against the Lions, who don't generate
nearly as much pressure as either one of those teams
who are like one to two in pressure rate. But
I feel it's just if they get behind the defense
(04:13):
is so bad, like the Lions is still gonna be
able to gash through them. But at ten I could
only look their way. I thought the Jets did legit
I didn't have any money on the game. I kind
of liked the Dolphins in the over which both hit
didn't play either, but I thought the Jets legitimately got
jobbed and they should have won that game. If you
look at net success rate for the week, so of
(04:33):
the teams that won, the luckiest team the two luckiest
teams were the rate are the Bears and the luckiest
was the Dolphins. They were like minus fifteen percent net
success rate. I mean, you look at that game. They
got out gained four o four to three hundred, the
yards per play seven point one to five point four
(04:53):
the Jets. The fumbles were killer. The Jets didn't score
in either red zone trip, they lost the turn of
a battle three nothing, and the Jets had thirteen penalties
for one hundred and one yards. So I know the
Jets deserve to win that game, and they were a
bit unlucky and got jobbed by the refs there. But
(05:14):
both those teams are very bad. It was but I
did think the Jets got job. I'm looking to fade
Miami this week in Carolina. That might be my plant
flag game off a fraudulent win short week now no
Tyreek Hill going up against a zone heavy defense where
Tuoa can really struggle against and you can really slow
down that offense. So that might be my plant to
(05:34):
flag game. But looking forward to better games than what
we saw last night. That was a rough Monday night doubleheader.
Speaker 1 (05:41):
Not all double headers are created equal. That was definitely
one that I think we could have lived without. I
had the dual screen going, and I didn't really enjoy
much of it outside of the fact that my Dolphins
did get their first win of the season. You lose
your star wide receiver in the process. I think in
some ways it can actually help the way that they
operate offensively, but we'll get to that in a seconds.
Before I move off completely of how you've just dog
(06:03):
walked me with these bets, I want to point out
something because there's I'm firmly of the belief I'm a
generally optimistic person.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
You either win in sports.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
Betting or you learn, and when you get smashed, whether
it's in a head to head with a podcast partner
or friend, or on your betting accounts. If you're not
taking notes of why it happened, then you're doing yourself
no favors. You astutely pointed out this weekend teams that
lost by thirty plus last week went two and zero
against the spread. That was until the Bengals with the
(06:32):
bed on Monday Night football. And so I kind of
have to take this one on the chin. I overreacted,
and it's the worst thing that you can do in
NFL betting. And it's not even about losing units off
of it. Because I didn't bet on the Washington Commanders.
That was the biggest head to head a battle that
you and I had. I just lost an opportunity to
(06:53):
bet on what was clearly a sharp side with the
Atlanta Falcons. You have to be willing to stomach these things,
and I think that that is the balance.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
There are some teams.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
Out there that you just simply shouldn't trust your money with.
We'll talk about why. Tennessee is probably their example number
one on that. But after a blowout loss, if we're
talking about one bad week, a blowout or just an
off game, that's not an indication of a team that
you need to put in bet jail.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
So lesson learned for me. One of the changes that
I made.
Speaker 1 (07:22):
Off of this stuckey, and this is partially thanks to
chat GPT, I did ask what they're looking at as
far as a margin of victory cap the numbers that
I generate myself, which are not Gospel people. I'm very
new at the power rating system, as evident with my
Panthers rating from a week ago, but I have a
cap to margin of victory now at twenty one, and
(07:44):
honestly I'm thinking about even lowering that.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
But that was one of the things that I adjusted
for myself.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Hey, I'm happy that you're taking the time to try
and learn and improve and iterate on what you're working on.
That's all you can do. And yeah, are like, I
don't have I don't put any team in bet jail,
as evidence by my love in the past for betting
on the Titans. My best win of the week was
the Titans not covering and me not having money any
(08:11):
money on it. But they're historically I think I've probably
made out better by not doing that. But historically there
usually is a team maybe two that we'll just never cover.
The market will never catch up. It'll they'll be the
sharps will still bet them. I mean, I'm going back
like ten fifteen years there were Browns teams fifteen, fifteen,
(08:34):
twenty years ago. A lot of Browns teams over the
years that were so bad that would never cover, that
would always take money and then shit the bed. So
that there usually is a team maybe two, and it
has been the Titans for under Callahan over the past
two years. I mean, they're three and eighteen against the spread.
(08:55):
It's that that is stunning, like a stunning number with
an efficient market like the NFL, because the market will
keep dropping them and they just still keep not covering.
It's it's stunning. So yeah, like I bet Jail, I
think you can reserve for like I don't do it,
(09:15):
but it probably would have helped me in the past.
But you can reserve for like that one team that
is just isn't covering and you're just like, all right,
there's this team is there's just something seriously wrong, And
I think with the Titans it's injuries, but it's also
it's just a stat at the coaching, Like the coaching
is that bad that it's it makes everything even worse.
Than it already is for Tennessee.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
I think the thing in looking back, if you're going
to put a team in bet jail, I think it
has to be a team that you you just have
to realize you have to cut your losses. You've bet
on them for multiple weeks in a row and they
continue to lose your money. I mean, you do have
to get to a point where you're just not that
stubborn about it and you continue betting on teams that
aren't winning for you. Where I look back in Atlanta
(09:56):
is I was on Atlanta plus three and a half
a week before they got blown out.
Speaker 2 (10:01):
So it's not like this team cost me any money.
Speaker 1 (10:04):
I just decided that I hated them, and that's Honestly,
this sounds so counterintuitive, but you'll probably agree with it.
One of the worst things you can do is an
NFL better is watch the games. I mean, it really does.
It just throws you off because it's hard not to.
Football is such an emotional sport. It's hard not to
(10:25):
emotionally react to what you see.
Speaker 3 (10:28):
I disagree. I mean, I think for a lot of people, yes,
but I mean I've watched every snap of red zone
since it's like I've never missed the snap of the
NFL for you, from start to finish on a Sunday
of my life.
Speaker 2 (10:42):
Stay on red Zone.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
By the way, I think it's an important note for
sports betters out there.
Speaker 3 (10:46):
Yeah, I zone on, and then I'll have I have
three other screens that I'll have other games on, so
I've like I usually have the red Zone and unless
it's like a really good game or the Raven sometimes
it's a really good game, I'll have that on my
main and then there's two. I have two, but a
lot of times it's Red Zone on top, and then
I'll have two games that I want to watch underneath,
and then by my laptop that I'm rotating through games.
(11:09):
I like to keep trying, like number one, the impact
of injuries. Looking at schematic stuff. I mean, like, for example,
the Chargers right now, I don't want to bet on
them against Washington because I don't I don't know what
they're gonna do about their offensive line. It was a
disaster against now the Giants have a really good front,
(11:32):
but they I mean they once they lost Joe All,
I mean, they had Austin Deculus in there. Left tackle
Bradley Boseman's been the worst center in the league. You
already lost your right tackle before the season, or you're
left tackle before the season, and then you have to
move all over. That's a mess. Like so and Beckdam
wasn't playing. I don't know what they're gonna do. They
(11:53):
might take this salar and kick them out the left tackle.
If they get becked them back, they might replace their
center this week. But Herbert had no chance, and it
led to two picks that led to two giant scores
that both of them are almost picked sixes. But like
seeing stuff like that, I think is really beneficial for me.
But I agree like that it can lead if you're
(12:15):
more of a casual better it can lead to some
of those overreactions you know when you're watching.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
And I think specifically with that, like when we're talking
about blowout. It's not necessarily I'm certainly not sitting here
advocating don't watch the NFL, but when it comes to
those those extreme results, it's hard for that to not
skew your opinion of what it is you're watching.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
A lot of people are going to look at get
team the wins by thirty and they're like, oh, this
team's a wagon, I'm betting them next week, or a
team that loses by thirty, then you're you watch them
look horrendous the entire game. You're naturally going to say,
why would I want to put my money on that
team after I just saw how poorly they look, which
is more difficult than just looking at a box score
(12:56):
and seeing like, oh, they lost by thirty. If you
actually watched it, it can be more difficult. But I
don't care. I mean, I've seen enough NFL and week
to week. I mean, like, look, we just saw Atlanta.
We just saw Michael Pennix go against the Panthers defense,
which is not great by any stretch spotifyve defense. He
looked like he never played football before.
Speaker 1 (13:14):
He looked like that was the problem that was and
that that's the issue specifically that I'm pointing out as
I watched the guy that couldn't get the ball to
the twenty yard line.
Speaker 3 (13:22):
But I've seen it enough. It's one week. Next week,
what did you go twenty and twenty five or three
twelve two touchdowns? That's that's just that's just the nature
of the NFL. Like the Chargers looked unstoppable lose at
the Giants, and there's there's countless examples of that happening.
So yeah, I would agree with you that it can
(13:44):
lead into that overreaction if you're if you're watching, but uh,
you just got to keep in your keep in the
back of your head like it's a week to week league.
Don't overreact too much. So uh yeah, but that's I've
been doing it a long time, so I don't. I
don't really get too higher or too low on teams.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
The Favorites is sponsored by DraftKings and in partnership with DraftKings,
we'd like to tell you the next great touchdown is
coming and you can bet on it right now. New
customers bet five dollars and get two hundred dollars in
bonus bets. That's right, New customers, turn five bucks into
two hundred if your bet wins paid instantly in bonus
bets to get started. Use the promo code Favorites when
(14:25):
signing up once more, that's Code Favorites at DraftKings. When
signing up to get on board, the crown is yours.
So before we get to the sides, let's talk about
the main dish, the three top stories across the league,
moving lines Tyreek Hill on the shelf for a while
after dislocated me from last night. How does that change
your perception of the Miami Dolphins moving forward, if at all.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
I mean, I thought he'll started to look okay the
past two weeks had a little bit more juice. This
team's bad, though, I mean, so you just lose one
more weapon, makes them easier to defend. You don't to
worry as much about the deep threat you really want to.
The Jets don't have the ideal defense schematically that you
want to use against the Dolphins. But they still, I mean,
(15:09):
they dominated that game. They were ne plus fifteen success right,
a fumble at the one lost turnover batt of three
nothing got crushed and like they should have won that game. Still,
the Dolphins are a bad team. I mean, like their
centers playing well. The rest of the offensive line is
a mess. Now you don't have Hill. Their defense is bad,
like they're anything in a lot of pressure, which is
supposed to be their strength. Their secondary is one of
(15:30):
the worst in the league. So this is a really
bad team. And it cut like it's unfortunate because I
thought you could have gotten something for Hill, right, I
thought that what the Dolphins should do this year is
just like fire sale. You gotta start this over and
so you're not going to get anything for Hill now.
(15:51):
But yeah, I bet the Panthers this week. It's number one.
Short week off of a fraudulent win. Panthers all off
of a blowout loss, right trying to buy low on
Carolina Carolina kind of a fraudulent like it was that
was closer than the final score indicated like they got.
(16:12):
They they blew that game on special teams. I mean basically,
the Patriots scored two touchdowns on punt returns, they missed
a field the Pants missed a field goal, they missed
extra point. They were minus eighteen in special point special
teams points and over the first twenty minutes of that game.
So I think that Bryce Young should be comfortable here.
A lot of opportunities downfield, like this Dolphins defense is
(16:32):
really really bad. I mean, the Jets just put a
four hundred yards of offense, So I think Bryce Young
could do enough. The Panthers did have offensive line injuries,
but Kate Mazes looked good at center for they had
their guard who's pretty good is on ir They brought
in this practice squad player to start after Zabala, their
backup got hurt. I don't know why, but then they
(16:52):
put in Brady Christensen, who was their highest graded player
last week, so he looked good at guard. So, like
I'm not, their offensive line still looks solid and that's
why the strongest points. So like the Panthers offensive line
is world's apart. And then schematically the Panthers, they're going
to play a ton of zone, which is what you
need to do against this two offense, and he's really
struggling to see the field right now against zone defenses.
(17:15):
So I like the match up in the spot. I
played Carolina cheap minus one out there for this week,
and it's gonna be a long year for the Dolphins.
Speaker 1 (17:23):
Yeah, it feels like Carolina is the right side. I
do think that in some ways this can actually help
the Dolphins offense operate. Tua tends to want to forced
feed Tyreek Hill, and he's just not really that kind
of quarterback. He's got to get the ball out quick,
he's got to spread the ball around. I don't think
we should sleep on the impact that Darren Waller had
for this team in the red zone. I was kind
of surprised.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
He actually really good.
Speaker 1 (17:45):
The red zone stats for the Dolphins are awesome. The
Dolphins now ring second in terms of scoring percentage in
the red zone.
Speaker 2 (17:53):
So I think the having Darren Waller helps.
Speaker 1 (17:56):
That's a new thing for them. But Oli Gordon gives
them a little bit of toughness in between the tackles
that they haven't had in the last couple of years.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
So I do think that.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
They can operate like perhaps more of a ground and
pound just get the ball out quick in the screen
game type of team and not have to worry about all.
We got to get Tyreek Hill the ball deep down
the field so that we can satisfy our Devia wide receiver.
There could be a benefit to this. I'm not making
a case for betting the Dolphins this week. The Panthers
do feel like the right side, but I wouldn't be
(18:26):
surprised if the Dolphins offense continued to look similar to
what it looked like last night.
Speaker 3 (18:31):
Yeah, the problem. The problem is that you want to
become a ground and pound team. Their offensive liner now
is in rough shape. I mean, you got rookies on
the left side who aren't I mean, Paul is playing okay.
Their left guard is playing really poorly. Your right side
of your offensive line is kind of a mess. So like,
that's that's hard to do when your offensive line is
in rough shape. They have some injuries, so yeah, I imagine.
(18:53):
But also in a short week after losing Hill, that's
not ideal either, right, like one of your key cogs
and now you're on a short week heading on the road.
So yeah, I'll be curious to see what McDaniel.
Speaker 2 (19:05):
Like.
Speaker 3 (19:05):
I think McDaniel is still solid. I don't like. I
think that he's kind of lost it as a head coach.
I like he seems checked out. I don't know, like
he's not as engaged as he once was. But I
think he would still be a very good offensive coordinator somewhere.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
Yeah, he definitely has lost a little bit of that humor.
He's just kind of leaning into the sad dork vibe.
Are you are you buying the renewed drama around Philly? Yes,
they won, Yes they covered, they're undefeated. But Aj Brown
another dismal stat line two catches seven yards doesn't seem
to be impacting what the Eagles want to do. But
passing wise, I mean, this team is bad. They are
(19:42):
there's no explosion in the offense. They were in dead
last and passing offense. That's behind the Tennessee Titans. I
mean they still score, But is this an issue for
you moving forward to you just simply throw it out.
Speaker 3 (19:56):
Yeah. I think the issue is the offensive coordinator. Like
it hasn't cost him yet, but I mean they should
have lost to the Rams. They got to play the
Bucks with all all the Bucks injuries, but they went
Hurts went oh eight for zero yards. The offense had
negative nine yards in the second half. Now granted that
that includes a thirty yard safety. Negative thirty yard safety
they took at the end of the game. Okay, let's
(20:18):
give them twenty yards for the second half, and then
against the Rams in the first half they had thirty
three yards. Yeah, I think the offensive coordinator, I think
is the issue. This is what I was worried about
coming into the year. Now it hasn't cost them yet, right,
you got to like, you got to play the Cowboys
and they're awful defense in week one. You know you
benefit you have that crazy comeback against the Rams, and
(20:39):
you know you got to play the Bucks with a
bunch of injuries. But they could have easily lost the game.
They've had a couple like special teams touchdowns. Now a
lot of people are gonna yell about the yards per
play margin, like the Eagles are like one of the
worst teams in the NFL that you can't look at
the Eagles yards per play. They're kind of like a
service academy because like if they get to third and three,
like if they get to you know, one or two yards,
(21:00):
it's basically it's going to be a first down. Like,
so that's basically a successful play, whereas it's not for
other teams. So their yards for play is a funky case.
But I am concerned and look aj Brown, these guys
want to get the ball, like they're receivers, receivers, but
like these really good receivers by nature are like are
(21:20):
kind of divas, and they want the ball. They want
to be involved, Like they don't want to watch, you know,
just go out there and block the entire game. Watch
a rugby you know, your your toush pushes all day.
So yeah, there's got to there. It looks like there's
gonna be some growing frustration and we'll see it. Very
The Eagles are a very interesting team to like price
(21:41):
and like way, it's it's very bizarre, so they'll get
I will argue though, that I could argue that Lane
Johnson is their most important offensive player. I mean the
numbers with him without him have been insane, and he
was out in the second half. We'll see his status.
His status this week is huge because you're going up
against that Broncos front. The Broncos edge rushers have been
(22:03):
menaces all all season and all of last year. So
whether or not Lane Johnson plays this week, I haven't
seen an update. We'll get it's only Tuesday. We'll get
updates on the practice reports tomorrow. But his status is huge.
He's been super important. But yeah, I'm definitely worried about
the Eagles offense and like, let's see their upcoming schedule
(22:27):
because the weird thing is I now say to myself, well,
they just can't get behind. But the one time they
got behind, they were forced to throw they they did
move it and come back from eighteen downs.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
So they've won every which way already this season.
Speaker 3 (22:37):
And the blocks are unsustainable, like they're not going to
keep blocking field goals and punts for touchdowns. But their
upcoming schedules, you know, home against the Broncos at the Giants,
at the Vikings home against the Giants. So yeah, I
mean they easily could be They could if they win
(22:59):
this week, they could get out to eight no. And
we still might have questions like they could be eight no.
This happened a couple of years ago though as well.
And you know this happens to the Steelers a lot.
Like you just have these teams that start eight to
no that have underlying issues because the schedule and just
late game luck is broken. Right, So I don't know
what we should get a better answer this week, because
(23:22):
the the Broncos do have a really really good defense
and uh so we'll see. But maybe Boonix just throws
the game away.
Speaker 2 (23:30):
But yeah, they're coming the coordinator.
Speaker 3 (23:32):
For me, it's a play calling, the scheming, and yeah
that it looks like there's some some trouble brewing, which
is weird for a four and oh team, but that's
what happens with receivers when you don't get.
Speaker 2 (23:41):
Them the ball.
Speaker 1 (23:42):
Bronco's coming off of a blowout win, short week for them.
Those are kind of teams we look at and go,
I don't know if we should back them.
Speaker 2 (23:50):
Maybe blow down.
Speaker 3 (23:51):
Yeah, but I also can't. I can't back. I can't
play points of the Eagles right now exactly. It feels
like ales and a half, like are they the new Chiefs?
There's gonna win all these weird close games. And it
does in different ways.
Speaker 2 (24:03):
It does feel like look.
Speaker 1 (24:04):
Pretty, which is why if you if you're catching over
a field goal at plus four and a half with
the Denver Broncos on DK, I think right now, if
I had to bet the game, I'd be on Denver.
Speaker 3 (24:15):
I agree, I agree, especially with Lane Johnson's status up
in the air.
Speaker 1 (24:18):
The Ravens got dusted by the Chiefs. Lamargo's out with
an injury. Now they're one in three. They are still
minus three seventy to make the playoffs. I had to
take a triple look at this. Where do you sit
on that? That just seems like an insane number for
a team that could be without It looks like they're
gonna be without Lamar this week too. They could be
one in four by next week and and you're still
(24:41):
getting plus money on them to miss the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (24:44):
Yeah, one in four. I think all the teams that
have historically started one in four five for only five
percent have made the playoffs. Now you have to remember
a lot of teams that are one and four are
really bad teams. So and since twenty twenty one, like
the playoffs have expandits it was a little easier now,
like the Rams did it last year. And the Ravens
(25:05):
do have a really good roster when healthy. The problem
is right now, if you look at their depth chart
in June, they're projected depth chart right now, twelve of
those starters are hurt. So I don't know who's gonna
play this week, but a couple of their defenders are out.
Matta Bouche is out for the year. He's enormous. I've
talk about this all last week. He's an enormous piece
of the run defense. They're laid down pass rush. Kyle
(25:28):
van Ney is sorely missed. But now you've got injuries
to Rokwan Smith, Marlin Humphreyan. These are all Pro bowlers
that I'm listing. Ronnie Stanley got hurt last week. I mean,
Wiggins the corner got hurt, Lamar got hurt. Ricard their
Pro Bowl full back been hurt. I mean, I just
just goes on and on. The Rookies aren't playing well.
On defense, they're not ready to like fill in. The
(25:51):
whole defensive line is in shambles, like this looks this
is like the worst d in the league and that
it's I don't know many defenses that would like everyone
wants to crucify Zach Orr and Harball, like I don't
know how many defenses can survive having like five or
six Pro bowlers out of like it's it's gonna look
ugly like I toold. Now, the offensive line is definitely
(26:14):
an issue as well, like the guards are not playing
well and it's impacted Lamar who doesn't look the same.
But they needed to get back to their offense with
like Ricard and likely where they can pose a lot
of matchup prompts. I'm not worried about the offense other
than the health the defense. I A'm worried about to
the health. So yeah, I would not a million years
take them. Now. The good thing working for the Raids
is they could finish like eight and nine. They could
(26:35):
finish like nine to eight and win the division because
I mean, the Bengals look toast with Browning. The Browns
are probably gonna start Gabriel this week. I mean they're
I mean they're not going anywhere, And are the Steelers
gonna like the Steelers A probably gonna go like eight,
nine to nine and eight. Well'll probably go nine and eight,
that's Tomlin. So if this, if the Ravens can get
to like nine and eight, because of their division, they're
(26:59):
gonna have a shot to win the division without getting
to like eleven twelve. So that's working in the favorite.
The Burrow injury, the Browns mess, and I'm not sure
I fully bind it like the Steelers being a ten
plus win team yet so they could still win the division,
which is going to give them a little hope if
they can get healthy. But whatever that price is out
there to make the playoffs, I certainly would not get that.
Speaker 2 (27:19):
Is three seventy. You can't do it.
Speaker 1 (27:21):
But it does feel like the wild card option is
starting to fly out the window. The Houston line for
this weekend opened at seven and a half. It's now
down to three and a half. That indicates a strong
feeling in the market that Lamar Jackson is not going
to play in this game.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
The defense is.
Speaker 3 (27:37):
Kind of hedged a little bit. If I had a guess,
like it's I.
Speaker 1 (27:42):
Think he's worth about six six and a half, I
would think, and it's a four point difference.
Speaker 3 (27:48):
I would argue seven. He's worth because number one, especially
one week like after getting hurt, because the offense is
going to look so like is there any is there
any bigger difference between quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Cooper Rush,
like on what they bring to the offense and how
you would design things.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
What's that it's a different sport.
Speaker 3 (28:12):
Yeah, completely different sports, So that he's worth seven, And
then this line doesn't also account for all the other
injuries for Baltimore. I think if he's ruled if Lamar
Jackson's ruled out, I don't know. I think this would
and depending on all the other Ravens injuries, but it
looks like they're going to be without a couple of guys,
I don't I just has to close under three, I think.
I don't know it. Those are harder to quantify the
(28:35):
non quarterback injuries. But if if if you told me
right now Lamar is out and I know about some
of the other injuries on the Ravens, I mean, I
think I would take I would certainly take the Texans
plus three and a half.
Speaker 1 (28:52):
A quick look at our ats standings report, the fade list,
the bet jail, which you know, maybe we're limiting who
goes to prison, but no more unbeatens. We've got six
three and one teams against the spread out there Colts, Jags, Lions, Seahawks, Rams,
and Eagles. Thank you for all of your funding. Are
any of those ripe for a fade of the teams
(29:13):
I just mentioned Colts, Jags, Lions, Seahawks, Rams, and Eagles.
Speaker 3 (29:20):
Um Colts. I was impressed with the Colts last week.
They got a bit unlucky. They were a snake pit Jags.
I love the Jags. I think the Jags still could
be undervalued. I bet the Jags on Monday number one.
Their special teams are really good. That's noteworthy. Their offense schematically,
their offensive defense are so much better. I love King Cohen.
(29:41):
Liam Cohen is a beast. Him going after Salah for
said keep my name out of your mouth because he
was accusing him of stealing signs. Although he said they
were like doing it in a legal way.
Speaker 2 (29:53):
You don't say that.
Speaker 3 (29:54):
I know I'm saying these lords sons. You didn't call
him like a liar, but you still don't say that.
So yeah, but it wasn't as bad as like hey
or a cheater. He was trying to get him a compliment.
But yeah, that's not how you do it. So no,
I'm not looking to fait the Jags.
Speaker 1 (30:09):
Who else that would be the Colts, Jags, Lions are interesting,
but they have the Bengals, Seahawks, Rams, Eagles. Eagles might
be at the top of the list.
Speaker 3 (30:23):
Yeah, Eagles for sure, and the Lions possibly coming up here.
Like because you have to remember they over the last
three weeks. Remember they remember they got they couldn't score
on Green Bay now was week one. But they then
(30:44):
they got the Bears, who at the time had their
entire defense was out right like it was a disaster,
and they haven't They weren't able to adjust like they
were playing with backup corners, backup linebackers. It was a disaster.
And going to Detroit playing them indoors. Then they got
the Ravens, and I talked about before this game with
the Ravens defense is in shambles, right, like it's horrific. Now,
(31:09):
they had a great game plan for it was the
best I've seen in containing Lamar Jackson. Right, it's not
a scene that gets a ton of pressure, but how
they approached him scrambling it was awesome. But they got
to play the Ravens defense, which was and then they
played the Browns and like the Browns if that game
was closer than the final score. I mean, the Browns
had three turnovers, was basically a pick six. And so
(31:31):
they've benefited from like a nice little stretch here of
getting some breaks that might be a little under the radar,
like the Ravens defensive injuries, the Bears defensive injuries, right,
the Browns being inft on offense. Now they have the Bengals,
They're at the Bengals. It's a it's a good spot
for the Bengals. Like, I know, it's short week, but
the Lions have the Chiefs on deck. Do the Do
(31:54):
the Bengals care? That's what I have to figure out,
Like because this is probably as low as you're going
to get on the Bengals. You just saw him get
blown out two weeks in a row. You saw Jake
Browning look horrendous. But they played Flores and the Broncos defense.
The Lions have a bunch of injuries in their secondary,
which I have to look into. Do they care? Like
(32:15):
I gotta try to get the vibes in that team,
because the vibes were so bad after they went down
and if they go down again, because the Lions still
should be able to score. Like the Bengals defense is atrocious,
but Lion lines are probably up their lines and Eagles.
For me, I would say.
Speaker 1 (32:29):
Dan Campbell and Jared Goff are just impossible to fade.
These guys As a combo, they cover the spread at
a rate of like seventy three per Right.
Speaker 3 (32:38):
Now we're ten and a half, Like they were just
favored by ten at home against the Browns.
Speaker 2 (32:44):
I just don't.
Speaker 1 (32:46):
I mean, I've been caught in this, so I'm not
going to argue with you about it because I've been
taking a beating on this.
Speaker 2 (32:51):
But to me, this feels like such a pass.
Speaker 3 (32:55):
Like you can't like ten and a half with De
Troit and Sinsey. That's outrageous.
Speaker 2 (32:59):
It's outdoor golf. This should be a Bengals bet for you.
Speaker 3 (33:03):
This is very most likely will be Like I'm ninety
percent sure I'm gonna be on the Bengals and it's
gonna hurt.
Speaker 1 (33:11):
I don't really want to spend much time talking about
the bad teams, but are we good with forget about jail?
Can we just throw the Titans in solitary confinement? At
this point, they're eight and a half point underdogs against
the Cardinals.
Speaker 2 (33:23):
How in the world do you bet either of these teams?
Speaker 1 (33:26):
The Cardinals should not be eight and a half point
favorites against almost anybody, But.
Speaker 3 (33:30):
The Titans will take money to that this morning.
Speaker 2 (33:33):
Like, who's who's doing that?
Speaker 3 (33:39):
Now? There is a price. There's a price for every
like every.
Speaker 2 (33:43):
Team for me, all right, what's your Titans price?
Speaker 4 (33:48):
Now?
Speaker 3 (33:48):
They think like the Arizona should be able to run
the ball this week, and then eventually the dam is
gonna break. That's what happens with the Titans now too,
like with Sweat on ir their defense eventually, because it
was six nothing in the fourth and they lost twenty
six to nothing. Their defense because their offense gives are
no help, and then their defense finally wears down and
then it's Simmons just can't make any plays anymore. It's
(34:09):
getting triple team the entire game, and then like what
else you got? Basically there's like a one man team.
It's like Jeffrey Simmons, he should get they should trade him,
like get let him go be on a winner. It's
sad my price, man, I mean, my my numbers say
(34:29):
I should bet him if it's ten.
Speaker 1 (34:32):
But I have the Cardinals as nine point favorites in
this game, so I'm pretty much on on market here Cardinals.
Speaker 3 (34:39):
I think I did fourteen to be like, okay, I'm
one betting.
Speaker 2 (34:45):
This is barely a teaser spot for you, tee.
Speaker 3 (34:48):
I think the Cardinals are a good teaser spot if
you can have cheap teasers, Like if you wanted to
go to Cardinals and let's say Cardinals.
Speaker 1 (34:59):
Would you buy the right now in case Lamar doesn't play,
then you'd get them at nine and a half.
Speaker 3 (35:06):
No, I think the time to do that open at
seven and a half, Like that was the time to
buy the Texas without much downside risk. I don't know
one in three if Lamar has a chance, he's gonna play,
So I don't know. At three and a half, it's
not worth it to me. But yeah, a good teaser
would be I mean, look, it's not across a three
(35:29):
and seven, but the Browns like who the points in
that game, the London game, points in that game are
going to be That game could end three nothing. The Vikings.
So I think the Browns might start Gabriel on a
short on an international travel week, going to the rookie.
(35:50):
You're already out of like they're running out of receivers.
Tilman's hurt, Carter's hurt. I think they're going to start
thrash and Isaiah Bond would with Judy their tackles. They
just had a trade for Cam Robinson, and I think
he's gonna start. Conklin maybe he'll be back at right tackle,
but he has a right elbow injury, Like he can't
really play right tackle unless you were like one hundred
(36:12):
percent with your right elbow. So you're gonna might have
a rookie quarterback, like a messy tackle situation, new receivers,
new tackles, like in an international travel week against the
Flores defense. And then on the other side the Vikings,
Brian O'Neill is out the right tackle stud there's Ryan Kelly,
their center had another concussion and he's probably out. Their
(36:33):
left guard I think had risk surgery. Jackson the rookie
looks who's looked really good. Their offensive line is in shambles.
How are you gonna bock the Browns? So what I
think is gonna happen here. If you start a rookie,
you're just gonna like you just hand it off like
you run the ball thirty times. Because the Vikings run
dy has not been great, like even the Steelers round
on them. So you just run it here with Judkins,
a bunch who's been good against stack boxes so far.
(36:55):
Punt run, punt, wait for Garrett to strip Wentz Wentz
or McCarthy whoever's back there. Wait for basically the Giants
game plan of last week. Starting a rookie quarterback, run
run against the backup offensive line, wait for your defensive
line to force turnovers, and that's how they could win.
But this total is down to thirty six and a half,
(37:17):
so we're going ahead to head here because I know
you're on Minnesota. I get the spot like it's a
good spot play, but I had to take the points
because I mean the total thirty six and a half,
four and a half points of this game are gonna
feel like ten. Like you know how hard it is
for any of these season is score four points and
you're gonna be watching this game and be like.
Speaker 1 (37:36):
This might be on the this might be on the
don't watch list, but you mentioned it right there. Play
it in the flag on the Minnesota Vikings three and
a half if you can get it four and a
half on DraftKings. I bought it the second it opened.
We had this one circle of the week ago. I'm undeterred.
I get it with the numbers. Believe me, I would
(37:56):
love if this was shorter. The Vikings stay overseas, Browns
fly in back to back battles with NFC North competition,
massive edge on the Vikings. I do worry about the
offensive line issues for Minnesota. I think that's why this
line is creeping the way that it is. It looks
like the Browns have taken money early, but the Vikings
should be able to match defensive excellence in this game.
(38:17):
Minnesota is number one in terms of EPA per play
on defense, the Browns ring third or worst in terms
of pass blocking. This is Brian Flores blitz happy dream matchup.
And when you layer in the travel advantage, and when
we spotted this one a week ago for a reason,
I'm not going to look away from it.
Speaker 2 (38:35):
I'm on the Vikings.
Speaker 3 (38:36):
Well, we can do a head to head that here again.
Well this has.
Speaker 2 (38:40):
Gone so well for me. I'm so excited.
Speaker 3 (38:43):
Well, if Kendrick come up with it a wager on Thursday, Yeah,
I just had to take the points. If you're Stefanski
and at least Gabriel can move around a little bit,
you know, boot him out. But you just run the
ball here, like you don't even let you just run
it and punt it. Play so conservatively. Now, obviously, if
you get into a game state where you have to
you have to, and then it probably won't go well
(39:04):
because the receivers can't get separation, they can't pass block,
and then they're going to be going up against the
Flora's blitz. But you can run on this Minnesota defense,
and I just don't know a Minnesota is gonna block Cleveland.
Speaker 2 (39:17):
Like.
Speaker 3 (39:17):
This game is probably gonna come down to whoever makes
the mistake first. And there's a good chance that it's
Miles Garrett and that d line that can force that
first mistake, because you don't want either if either of
these teams have to play from behind in this game,
it's it's lights out. So I took the points. Well, well,
(39:38):
we'll come up with make sure you get the four
and a half out there at DraftKings. Every point in
this game is big, so we'll get Kendrick to come
up with a bet. But I am on the Browns.
I'll plant my flag on Let's go. Let's see at DraftKings.
I do like the Panthers, I do like the Saints.
Speaker 2 (39:57):
I'm with you on the Saints.
Speaker 3 (39:59):
That all right, I'll plan my flag on the Saints.
The Saints are not playing terribly Like they played toe
to toe with the Bills. A couple of plays here
and there they actually could out a real shot to
win that game. They were toe to toe with the
Cardinals to tote with the forty nine ers. The Seals
king got out of hand because the special teams. But
like from a success right down to down basis, they
were pretty close. They should be able to run the
(40:21):
ball here. The Giants like, look, I was impressed last week,
but there's there's They basically benefited from the charters offensive
line injuries. Two turnovers have led to two touchdowns. I
mean Dart threw for one hundred yards. It was better
than Russell Wilson. But now they have on tape what
some of the stuff that they want to do with
Dart going on the road here after a big win,
(40:41):
Saints trumph searching for their first win. Rattlers looked pretty good.
I think they'll be able to run the ball here.
The Saints still have some pretty good weapons and their
run defense I think can hold up, and especially without
the threat of Neighbors on the outside, that's going to
make things easier. So I'll plan my flag on the
Saints minus one, minus one and a half out there.
(41:02):
I think they get the victory at.
Speaker 1 (41:04):
Home, and the Giants were already in a good position
when Neighbors went down with the injury. It's a completely
different story when you already feel good about where you're
at in the game and you lose a star player.
Compared to starting a new week without the threat of
that player, yep, and I think that we really see
the impact of that now for the main event, no
(41:24):
betting week can start without it. It is the primer
courtesy of Evan Abrams Evan the Voice of God.
Speaker 2 (41:31):
Welcome to the show.
Speaker 1 (41:32):
What are the trends we need to be aware of
before we fire away on the apps?
Speaker 4 (41:36):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (41:36):
I kind of like this Tuesday, I'm the Voice of God,
and then Thursday I kind of swoop in with whatever
I have left and make decisions for you.
Speaker 4 (41:43):
Guys, So either way it works for me.
Speaker 5 (41:45):
I feel like I've been laughing on the sidelines here
because I just tweeted this and Stuck He's been all
over Carolina and I completely understand it. So Miami was
minus one and a half last night during the game,
the Tyreek injury happens, and about an hour or so
later it flips the Carolina last more and a half.
So the Panthers haven't won or one or covered a
game they were favored in since September of twenty twenty one,
(42:08):
four full years. They've lost ten straight as a favorite
in that spot. That is the longest losing streak as
a favorite since the nineteen seventy merger for any team.
Right now, Yeah, they are completely and utterly do I mean, honestly,
I think I like this side. This is such a
fun week in the sense that Stucky myself, other people
(42:30):
are going to be considering the Panthers and Saints as
maybe the better sides this slate is considering.
Speaker 3 (42:35):
Just I already have money down.
Speaker 5 (42:36):
I know, I know, I know, but I'm saying I'm
going that direction. Let me keep rolling here because I
just have a few closing favorites to six points are
more sixteen to two and one straight up this season
fewest outright losses for favorites that large through four games
since nineteen seventy nine, So after the start with four
post point faves, still kind of seeing it on.
Speaker 4 (42:58):
Obviously Green Bay Dall is the tie there.
Speaker 5 (43:01):
And then to me, Detroit and Tennessee what Detroit's doing
on the cover side fifty to twenty one and one
seventy percent since twenty twenty one, basically going to set
the record there for a five year span, and I
have it in my article, but from a fifty game
stretch ridiculous as well, best since the Vikings in sixteen
(43:23):
seventeen and then Tennessee three and eighteen ATS as you
guys mentioned, but even last twenty five for twenty and
one ATS, which would be the worst mark over a
twenty five game span since at least nineteen ninety. I
think the fun one is overseas, so that game and
when I say fun it's a relative term because total
(43:44):
down to thirty six and a half, which would be
the lowest of the fifty one international games for the
regular season we have sent overseas, So this might be
the absolute worst performance those fans have seen, but a
lot of fun stuff in the article this week. Sometimes
there isn't a lot this there's a lot.
Speaker 2 (44:02):
Is there anything on the Ravens without Lamar?
Speaker 4 (44:06):
If it goes on that way, I do, hold on,
let me pull that up.
Speaker 5 (44:10):
So what I found with Lamar is simply what everyone
kind of knows. Since twenty nineteen, five qbs have started
a game for Baltimore Lamar RG three, Anthony Brown, Josh Johnson,
Tyler Huntley. In the fourteen games without Lamar, they're four
and ten straight up, but nine and five ats. I
think the more important part is just the numbers in themselves.
(44:32):
Points per game twenty eight with Lamar, sixteen without, So
I think that's exactly.
Speaker 4 (44:39):
What you're getting in this matchup. If he's not there, and.
Speaker 5 (44:41):
I think stuck, He's right, you're middling that line right now.
Speaker 4 (44:45):
I think they're just playing the middle game.
Speaker 5 (44:46):
They don't know, so they're between seven and a half
and what do you think stuck without Lamar?
Speaker 4 (44:50):
What does that line end up at? Well?
Speaker 3 (44:52):
See, I think without with Lamar, this spread would have
been like nine and a half ten, which the Raven's
fully healthy, but they're not like all of the other injuries.
I think I probably would have made this line around
seven and seven and a half if Lamar was playing.
Without Lamar, I think it's like a touchdown drop, So
(45:15):
honestly I would make this, I don't know, Ravens minus one.
Speaker 4 (45:20):
The funny.
Speaker 5 (45:21):
The funny thing is is Lamar against the Texans absolutely
crushed them in his career. So like the matchup itself,
just looking holistically historically is great for Baltimore, means absolutely nothing.
Now with the defense being hobbled, he's hobbled, like the
matchup completely different. So yeah, I think in a normal
situation like preseason, this spread would have been like eight and.
Speaker 4 (45:43):
A half nine, so kind of fascinating.
Speaker 5 (45:46):
But Baltimore obviously in a really really tough situation.
Speaker 3 (45:50):
Yeah, and those the cluster d injuries are they're hard
to price, but like it's those a time you got
like four or five Pro bowlers that are hurt. Their
defensive line is in shambles, so like it's a couple
of points, I think.
Speaker 1 (46:02):
So the bet, it's the bet before the bet, because
if you think if you bet the Texans right now
at three and a half and there is no Lamar,
that's incredible value and that's the decision that you're gonna
have to make.
Speaker 3 (46:14):
But if you bet that Texas and there is a Lamar,
you're then your your shit out of luck. So I
think the time to do that was when it was
at plus seven and a half. I think it was
at plus seven a half some shops. I had someone
tweet me and I said, yeah, you should take this
because there's no not much downside risk. I don't think
it's going to be ten.
Speaker 5 (46:27):
I mean yesterday, yesterday at noon it was still six
and a half, Like you could have made decisions to
try to get in at a price and come back.
I think at three and a half it's it's a
little bit of a wait and see ie to a.
Speaker 3 (46:38):
Total pass, I think for me and that the total
the Browns Vikings total at thirty five and thirty six
and a half in a that we're getting to like
Brown like Cleveland home game with when it's like crazy
weather with all the winds off the lake type territory
with like that, that's a crazy low total. But like
(46:59):
I said on solo pod, like at thirty seven and
a half, I would I could only look under uh
for sure. So yeah, good stuff, Evan, and and I
think the Panthers Lions point is worth noting. And I
think what is the biggest takeaway there, It's the coaching.
(47:21):
I think that's what, like the market hasn't really fully
captured how bad Callahan is and how great Campbell has been,
being so aggressive on all of these fourth downs and
making all of these like plus ev decisions and just
they have an identity in that aspect, but they're they're
constantly being aggressive going on fourth downs, getting it, building margin,
(47:44):
keeping their foot on the gas. I think like that's
one of the primary drivers of those wide splits, is
it's like Callahan versus Campbell and how bad one has
been and how great the other has been.
Speaker 1 (47:57):
Imagine if you were just wise enough to just bet
the Lions every week and fade the Titans every week,
why don't we even.
Speaker 2 (48:02):
Have podcasts the folks that will do it for us?
Speaker 1 (48:04):
On today's episode special thanks to our producers David Paine
and Gifford Gould.
Speaker 2 (48:08):
Thank you Evan for the stats.
Speaker 1 (48:10):
Make sure you go and check out the primer over
at actionnetwork dot com. The Favorites will return on Thursday.
Kendro will be back with us as well. Make sure
you follow us on the Action Network YouTube page Week
five best Bets on Thursday. We'll see you right here
on the Favorites presented by Draft Gings. Let's catch these tickets.
Speaker 2 (48:27):
Like, Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you
or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help
is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred
Gambler
Hosts And Creators
Chad Millman
Simon Hunter
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Breakfast Club
The World's Most Dangerous Morning Show, The Breakfast Club, With DJ Envy, Jess Hilarious, And Charlamagne Tha God!