October 7, 2025 • 42 mins
Come celebrate a Monday Night Football Jacksonville win with The Favorites! Action Network hosts Stuckey, Kendra Middleton and Brandon Kravitz return to the show and it's a full on "Jag-off" session for the crew. It's time to plant the flag early in the week as they briefly discuss the upcoming Week 6 slate. Plus, we get some nuggets from the weekly NFL Primer courtesy of Action Director of Research Evan Abrams, delivering everything needed to start digging into the betting week in the NFL.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
We are an Action Network podcast. Your Favorite Trio is back.
I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined by the sharpest Sharps that money
can buy, Stucky and Kendra Middleton. A very exuberant Kendra
Middleton after that Jags win last night. On today's episode,
(00:30):
We've got our plant the Flag Games for week six,
a breakdown of the top storylines, and of course, the
main event evans Tuesday primer. What a weekend it was
Week five in the books, a little up and down
for the crew. The parlay picks the newly named Two
Kings and a Queen Parlay went one and two, But
we press on to week six. The Jags, of course
(00:53):
pull off what looked to be an improbable win. Trevor Lawrence,
laying on the ground down by the goal line, pops
himself back up, heroic run into the end zone, and
they trip their way into victory. I can only imagine
what the scene at the Middleton household looked like last
night as Trevor Lawrence is bumbling his way into the
(01:15):
end zone.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
I have so many thoughts. I don't even know where
to begin.
Speaker 3 (01:19):
What an emotional roller coaster this was from start to
finish for me and my entire hell of pets.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
I was screaming. I think I was crying.
Speaker 3 (01:29):
He my dog somehow slept through me screaming at my
TV for and like the whole game. Literally, I posted
a picture of him just passed out, not a thought
in the world as I'm running around losing my mind.
I the ups and downs of the Trevor Lawrence experience
is going to give me premature gray hair. I'm surprised
(01:49):
it has not caused me alcoholism. I don't even know
where to start. The delay of game penalties were insane.
Devin Lloyd, the turnaround for him is absolutely unbelievable. The
fact that they overcame some injuries last night night. What
a night from Travis Hunter on both sides of the ball.
Just I don't even know where to start. I have
so many thoughts. But Trevor Lawrence when he runs looks
like a wounded baby deer that was born last Thursday.
(02:11):
I swear to God, I have so many thoughts about
this game. I don't even I am shook. The refs also,
I don't even what are you? What are you guys
getting because the Jags come on the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (02:28):
The Chiefs had more penalty yards than the Jags did
last night, and the Jags won the game. Let's get
off the officials, stucky. What was your biggest takeaway from
last night?
Speaker 4 (02:37):
Ten Draugs hold you Jags are gonna win and cover?
Uh you weren't. You weren't as confident as I was.
This is the Jags Podcast.
Speaker 5 (02:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (02:45):
I love the Jacks. I love the Jacks coming to
the here. I still love the Jags with my ravens
and shambles. I'm now I'm now Jacks fan for the
time being, temporary Jacks fan. So it's crazy that if
the playoffs ended today, who would have thought that the
Jags and Colts matchups in December are going to determine
(03:06):
AFC supremacy. But yeah, I thought they're.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
Gonna get moved to primetime, which is hilarious.
Speaker 4 (03:11):
Jags, Yeah, Jags are gonna be a primetime da. When's
the last time you saw the Jags win on Monday
Night football? Don't even know how long of us?
Speaker 3 (03:18):
Oh my god, it's been like the better part of
a decade.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
It has to be.
Speaker 3 (03:21):
I know that they talked about it last night, But
I don't remember when it was. The last time I
saw the Jogs winning primetime was the Chargers game.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
But I was sad at that games.
Speaker 4 (03:30):
Yeah, Monday night football. But Devin Lloyd amazing's playing at
all pro level. Got to be in the defensive Player
of the Year conversation at least as of right.
Speaker 2 (03:39):
Now for sure.
Speaker 4 (03:41):
And I thought Trevor Lawrence had the best drive of
his career at the end. He made that throw on
third down down the sidelines to Thomas was unbelievable. Yeah,
I mean Liam Cohen's coaching, the defensive coaching, it's all
the special teams have been rocks out all year. That
(04:02):
the Jags were great in all three phases. And yeah,
they did have some injuries. I I did think the
Chiefs offense, like I was like, all right, and I
don't I need to see more because the Ravens defense
was so banned up. But the Chiefs offense did did
look a lot better. I mean, they had like a
sixty four percent success rate, which I think was the
highest of the year for any team. So there's there's
(04:22):
a lot of juice in that Chiefs offense. What especially
once they get Rashi Rice back, Butker might be washed.
You could argue he's cost.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
The he is, thank god, he's definitely yeah.
Speaker 4 (04:37):
Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
That was what led the Jags to be able to
get ahead last night, was that he kicked the kick
off out.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
Of bounds and you know what, whatever, screw them.
Speaker 3 (04:48):
The thing that for me that makes me feel a
little bit better is if I don't know if the
Bible says like thou shalt not let Breton Strange tush
push you or something, because Trevor Lawrence is scared of
letting him touch his butt. But had they done the
toush push and knock going over the top on that,
it would have been a they would have been a
you know, two score game for them, Like I just
I don't know how learned that last.
Speaker 4 (05:07):
Yeah, because the strangers right behind him, so you got
to do a normal I mean, he was an inch
away from getting in, but you just got to do
a normal regulars get over it. Yeah, that that almost
I'm shocked that they were able to overcome that. Lloyd
helped because I stole a possession. But the old Jags,
I tweeted this out. The old Jags would have folded
(05:30):
when they were down for and they the old Jags
I mean I'm talking like at the last couple of years,
had no resiliency and once they went down fourteen to nothing,
it would have been lights out. But the defense got
to stop at the end of the first half, and
then a stop to start the second half, which was
just massive because the game could have slipped away. And
(05:51):
then they stole that possession back to make up for
the Lawrence goal line fumble with a goal line pick
that Lloyd took ninety nine the other way. So yeah,
I think that the Jags are are legit. You're right, Hunter,
if you look at the I mean, if you just
take pff you look at the five highest graded players
(06:12):
of last time as a receiver and Hunter as a
d backer in the top five, and he made some
great plays on both sides of the ball. So uh yeah,
I think that the Jags are legit and they easily
could be five and oh if they didn't melt down
versus first Jake Browning and undefeated.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
Yeah, and I believe in the Chiefs. I think the
Chiefs are still a good team. But this is what
the schedule will do to you. If you're too good
for too long. Eventually, the NFL will make it an impossible,
treacherous gauntlet for you. The Chiefs no rest for the weary,
another primetime game at home against the Detroit Lions.
Speaker 6 (06:55):
So even if they.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
Play well like they played well last night, they can
play well on Sunday night and they can still lose
that one too. And here you are looking at a
Chiefs team that right now outside looking in in terms
of the playoffs.
Speaker 4 (07:10):
Three and one score games at their ten and l
last year.
Speaker 6 (07:12):
And that's the thing.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
Like that exactly, the regression is going to get you.
I feel like when we take a closer look at
the luck rankings that the Jags are going to be
bumped up a little bit based on Devin Lloyd going
across the field for a touchdown and uh, some of
the turnover worthy plays that Trevor Lawrence had, the weird
fall down touchdown he had at the end. There are
a lot of things that broke Jacksonville's way in this
(07:35):
game in order then to get down, but I get
up again.
Speaker 4 (07:40):
Yeah, I think it was just a back and forth game.
I mean, like you could argue the Chiefs fuck that
they had an interception on a twenty yard touchdown drive
that was because of past interference. The offensiveass interference is questionable.
The Jags, you know, fumbled at the one, so I
think there was both teams that things go for them
and against them. I don't think it was terribly lucky.
(08:02):
I mean, that was just one of those games where
whoever had the ball last felt like was gonna win.
So yeah, obviously a one score win for the Jags,
but I don't think it was it was terribly lucky.
There are some injuries to note, like, they had some
offensive line injuries. Strange got hurt, so there's some things
to know.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
But he came back in.
Speaker 4 (08:25):
Yeah, Anton Harrison, he was in and out, so we'll see.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
You're hitting a peak for him though, so hopefully he's okay.
Speaker 4 (08:31):
Yeah, he's looked, he's looked.
Speaker 2 (08:33):
No, Trayvon Walker is the story of this game though.
Speaker 4 (08:36):
Yes, they they couldn't get pressure. You could just tell
how much they missed him because they were incapable of
generating any pressure naturally, because it's just, hey, you have
to worry about Alan, and if you just have to
worry about Alan, you know you can slide protection, you
can you can help. But if you have Alan and Walker,
(08:58):
they become so much more difficul to contain both. But yeah,
he was definitely missed, so we'll see. The Seahawks also
have a ton of injuries, the main ones to keep
an eye on there, which we'll talk about later in
the week, or or in the secondary. I mean the
Seahawks came into the Bucks game hurt in the secondary
and then lost more guys in the secondary and they
(09:19):
were down. They were decimated by the end of that game.
So definitely there's a lot of injury games this year,
a lot of injuries to keep tracking.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
Yeah, here's my thing with this for our podcast. Jags though.
Speaker 3 (09:35):
They play Seattle this week at home and then technically
I do think that they'll wind up losing the Seattle game.
I said that on our Sunday show just because that
would be the most Jacksonville Jaguars thing ever to beat
the Chiefs in primetime and then turn around and lose
to the Seattle Seahawks, just because I've watched this team
for long enough.
Speaker 2 (09:52):
That's the vibe that I get from them.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
But the issue with continuing to bet them that people
need to pay attention to. They don't have another home
game I think until November ninth, technically after Seattle, because
you can claim the London game as a home game,
it might help them that. Obviously they've gone through that
schedule before, like the going overseas, YadA YadA.
Speaker 2 (10:08):
They have like kind of a routine about it at
this point. But they have Seattle at.
Speaker 3 (10:13):
Home, go to London, bye week, two away games, so
that's you know, a lot of time not really spent
in your home stadium. When you're an undefeated team, it's
a long time to not have a home game. So
that's the only thing that I would keep in mind
if you want to bet on the Jags. I personally
am going to stay away from them with Seattle just
because it feels like a Seattle spot. And then La
obviously they're a good team and it's technically a neutral,
(10:36):
neutral game, even though I'm sure there's going to be
more Jags fans. But after like they don't have another
home game until November ninth, that's a long.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
Time you have set the cross country travel Jacksonville in
the short week. I feel like those two kind of
nullify each other. So really even match up, I think
this is gonna be a tough one to find a
side that we're in love with in this game.
Speaker 4 (10:56):
Yeah, I'm the injuries to keep an eye on for
the We mentioned the jas Ones, but just to throw
the names out there for Seattle, I mean, they were
without at the end of that game. They were without
three starters in the secondary, Witherspoon, Love wool and we're
all hurt, and then DeMarcus Lawrence as well. So the
Seahawks defense, especially in the back end, is uh. And
(11:18):
then you're missing one of your best edge rushers. Definitely,
it was a kind of a shell unit by the
end of that Bucks game. So that's something to keep
an eye on there for the injuries. But yeah, I
mean the Jags are they're gonna they're gonna be in
the mix for this division in the playoff spot all
the way to the end, so you know, and Theirs
their schedule when you look at it, it's.
Speaker 2 (11:40):
You know, it is the gauntlet piece of it, this
like until.
Speaker 4 (11:42):
Like Rams neutral then by that's a tough stretch, but
you have then you're Vegas, Texans Chargers at home, Cardinals, Titans, Jets, uh,
the Titans again and then the two matchups with the Colts,
which as of right now it looks like those two
could decide the division.
Speaker 3 (12:04):
Cowen could pass Gus Bradley in wins as a Jaguars
head coach before the season even ends.
Speaker 6 (12:11):
Or went out for Gus.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
Well, okay, here's the.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
Other thing though, Like with Seattle, we can move on
from this in a second. The only other thing that
I would say we kind of maybe have to consider
is what's going on with Kenneth Walker and Charbonnay, Like
who is their lead back there? That whole situation confuses
me too. But other than that, I'm happy. I'll take
the dub. This was the gauntlet pieces of the schedule.
Speaker 2 (12:31):
I'm dragging off.
Speaker 1 (12:32):
Yeah we uh yeah, group group Jag off here. I
feel like we've you know, we've banked on the Jags
and only get caught with your hand in the cookie jar.
Maybe take the week off. We did have some injuries
this week, as we always do. As Stuck he mentioned,
there is a lot there's a lot of little items
throughout the league to pay attention to. Amaro Hampton went
(12:53):
down with the Chargers. He looks like he's gonna be
out multiple weeks. Antonio Gibson with the Patriots has done
for the year. I mean those are just some of
the little ones. But I think the most impactful in
terms of a singular injury, not these clusters that we're
talking about. Spencer Schrader of the Colts. The Colts have
been dynamite this year and their kicker has been awesome
(13:13):
thirteen of fourteen in field goal attempts. He's made all
of his extra points. How much stucky would you downgrade
Indianapolis without their kicker because we don't know who they're
gonna go and pick up off the street.
Speaker 4 (13:26):
I mean, not at all, but I mean he's still
a kicker. We'll see who they get. It's like noteworthy,
but at the end of the day, it's still a kicker.
And Trader's been good this year, but it's not like
he's prime. Justin Tucker has proven it over years and years.
My biggest concern in injury wise is the Chargers offensive line,
(13:53):
and maybe Miami can't take advantage of it. But the
last two weeks against the Giants and Washington, Chargers offense
has been completely dysfunctional because they cannot block anybody and
they suffered more than you know. Obviously you lose both
your tackles, but now your guards have been hurt your back,
your one of your your backup tackles was hurt last
(14:14):
week that had it that it is now forced to start.
Their offensive line is a disaster and it's ruining the
entire offense. And now you have no backs. Your top
two backs are done. So the Chargers offensive injuries are
potentially devastating. Now that's the matchup with the week for me, Like, Okay,
(14:35):
you have this Chargers, their backup running backs, you have
all these offensive line injuries going up against the Dolphins
defense that isn't generating pressure and just gave up two
hundred and ten yards to reco daddle and back up
offensive lineman on the Panthers. So what gives? I don't know.
I know Kendra I think likes the likes the Chargers
(14:58):
and that the Dolphins just might be a dead walking
But yeah, the that just might derail the Chargers season.
Looking long term, if is that offensive line because the
last two weeks their offense has just been completely dysfunctional.
Speaker 6 (15:12):
Yeah, the Dolphins just can't get pressure.
Speaker 3 (15:14):
No.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
I was doing some research and it looks like the
options for the Colts are gonna be I think Greg's
er Lion or Dustin Hopkins because Eddie Periniro got signed
obviously by the forty nine ers.
Speaker 4 (15:25):
Oh, Greg, gregor leg I'll download. I'll downgrade them a
touchdown after what I saw with the.
Speaker 6 (15:31):
This is what I'm saying.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
I mean, I get that it's a kicker the Colts overall,
this isn't just kicking, but overall PFF grade has them
as the fifth best special teams unit in the NFL,
and everything is working well for them without one of
those key components to special teams. It does feel like
it's a hit that you don't realize as a hit
(15:52):
until you need it. And we'll see who they end
up filling that gap with. I could kick, Like no,
I mean, I don't know who those filling options would
be or how confident I should be.
Speaker 4 (16:05):
Santas can't kick apparently, I mean, and that they weren't
even attempting to do it in the game against the Raiders,
like they were just going forward every time on two
point conversions, and that was in a blowout, So you
would think that like if he was able to kick,
they would That would be a perfect time.
Speaker 2 (16:23):
The MLS season's about to end. Go find go find
an MLS.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
Player, Grab a Golden Boot, but the Dolphins it should be.
I mean, the Dolphins catching points at home with the
team traveling from the West Coast.
Speaker 6 (16:37):
Does feel like Okay and the Dolphins.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
The last time the Dolphins played the Chargers, this is
a couple of years ago now, I think it was
to his best game of his career, over four hundred
yards passing three touchdowns. There's something about this team. Maybe
it's the Justin Herbert, same draft class thing that gets
them going. But I just can't back Miami because it
feels like every time they lose.
Speaker 6 (16:57):
The bottom's about to fall out.
Speaker 1 (16:59):
And I hate being on a team that quits on
their coach, and it feels like we are moments away
from that happening in Miami, especially with the way they
they had no business losing that game to Carolina.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
I want nothing to do with the Dolphins this week.
Even though the Chargers are injured.
Speaker 3 (17:14):
It feels like they're seasons insane and their division's really tough.
You cannot and will not get me to back the
Dolphins in this spot.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
I just I can't.
Speaker 3 (17:24):
I don't know if you guys watched McDaniel's press conference
after this game. I don't even in really, Oh my god,
the things that.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
He's saying just don't even make sense.
Speaker 3 (17:32):
He just he he wants to go be a coordinator somewhere.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
He's done. I think he's given up.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
This team with the injuries has and just the team
in general, I think has killed this man. He's not
been the same since Tua got hurt for the second time.
Like I just it's over, it's done, wrap it up.
I wouldn't be surprised if this team just goes belly up,
regardless of whatever's going on with this Chargers team.
Speaker 2 (17:55):
Can't do it.
Speaker 4 (17:57):
Oh, by the way, Colts kicker. Look, the Colts stole
the Ravens team once overnight, maybe week ten.
Speaker 2 (18:09):
Justin Tucker, I mean, he's washed and you cannot bring but.
Speaker 4 (18:16):
He's better than Greg Zerline.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
But what if he's in jail by then, I don't know.
Speaker 4 (18:22):
Know, I'm just throwing it out there. Would be funny
if the Colts sent it up.
Speaker 3 (18:26):
I had that thought too, But I don't think that
you can jeopardize the camaraderie that you have in your
locker room right now with a guy who has like
multiple cases. Like that's just that's not It would be
funny and I thought the same thought crossed my mind,
just because it's probably an option.
Speaker 2 (18:45):
But I don't think you can have the.
Speaker 3 (18:46):
Bad press and all of that the stuff that comes
with it and mess up this weird mojo that you've
got going on.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
The cults are vibe right now, Aura, Aura, a little
bit of the antydimes.
Speaker 6 (18:57):
Aura.
Speaker 1 (18:58):
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(19:19):
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Speaker 6 (19:24):
The crown is yours.
Speaker 1 (19:27):
ATS Standings Report, the Lions, Colts, Jags. As we know
this is a Jags podcast. We're having a Jag slumber party.
Last night, All four and one ats on the season.
Last week's Ats demon that we faded was the Eagles
that paid off Broncos come back and win and cover
and all of that. Does anyone want to stand a
(19:48):
post to the teams right now that are cashing tickets
left and right. You get the Lions at Kansas City,
the Colts at home against Arizona, or the Jaguars at
home again the Seattle Seahawks who already sort of dismissed
that one, but feel free to save this in your
back pocket if it's a point your flag game. But Stucky,
(20:08):
are you fading the Lions or the Colts this week?
Speaker 4 (20:12):
Yeah? I got to dig into the I mean, the
Cardinals have a ton of injuries. The Colts are fairly
healthy of Alec Pierce, Grover's store who matters to the run,
Dye a lot got banged out. Then you have Kenny Moore,
He's really important, especially since his backup who they signed
also got hurt. So there's some injuries there. I got
to figure out where that This line is getting a
(20:33):
little too high for me. I mean, but I got
figureut where the Cardinals are at mentally, and they have
a lot of injuries on both sides of the ball.
But like, how do they respond to that game with
everything that went down?
Speaker 6 (20:48):
That was awesome.
Speaker 1 (20:50):
It's and by the way, the Titans. The Titans meanwhile
breakout of solitary confinement.
Speaker 6 (20:57):
So congrats to the Titans. Bring a spread.
Speaker 4 (21:01):
Yeah, I mean they had no business copy. They were
about to be down twenty eight to six. They don't
drive the flukiest wins I've ever seen, but I might
fade the Lions if I had to choose with the Chiefs.
Like I said, the Chiefs offense, I believe in it
after what I saw last week, last week or last night,
and then the week before, I had some doubts because
(21:21):
they played the Ravens, and the Ravens right now are
the worst team in the NFL, and the Lions have
what the They have one of the worst strength of
victories in the NFL right now. So yeah, they've been winning,
but you look back. They beat the Bears, who were
without half their starters on defense, and it was in Detroit.
(21:42):
They beat the Ravens. So I just told you all
their injury. I mean, look at the Ravens have been
in their defense over the past few weeks, that the
most hurt team in the NFL. They beat Joe Flacco
and the Browns at home, and then they beat then
they beat Jake Browning who threw basically gifted them the
game in the first half with four short fields and
three interceptions and could not hit an open receiver to
(22:03):
save his life. So yeah, the Lions have won and
covered four straight. But if you dig a little deeper,
it's like, Okay, who did it really come against? So
I do think the chief should be able to move
the ball at will the Lion's off. It's a lot
of success here too, but backs against the wall at home,
I think I might trust the Chiefs here to get
(22:25):
it done.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
The Lions are a tough team to fade every week.
Evan Abrams shares the numbers on what Golf and Campbell
have done over seventy percent against the spread this year.
They're over eighty percent against the spread. But I think
stuck He's right. This feels like a by low Kansas
City Chief spot. When I mean heed detailed it Bears, Ravens, Browns, Bengals.
Speaker 6 (22:52):
Is that really that impressive? And they have.
Speaker 4 (22:55):
You think about all the injuries too on those teams.
Speaker 1 (22:58):
Exactly, So they're a little bit right now. As great
as they are, this is a week to fade them.
I'm I think I'm gonna end up on Kansas City.
Speaker 2 (23:07):
That's crazy answer.
Speaker 4 (23:09):
That's the question.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
Here's that that's a great point. My thing is.
Speaker 3 (23:14):
It's hard because it's a short week for the Chiefs,
but you can almost get me to think I don't
I can't fait the Colts just because they don't even
have like a look ahead angle, but the meat of
the Lions' schedule is about to happen. You can't ever
count out a Chiefs team, but they've got bucks. The Vikings,
I think are better than they've looked the last couple
of weeks. Commanders obviously can't count them out. Eagles, and
(23:37):
like the rest of their they have a tough remaining schedule.
That's like the hard part for me on getting to
the window on the Lions. I think that they beat
the Chiefs, probably by a field goal, So I would
probably like this number if it stays the same by
the time we have more information on injury reports on Thursday.
Speaker 2 (23:55):
But it's I can't fait the Colts. Their schedule is
too easy.
Speaker 3 (23:59):
If I have to pick guy to my head type
of situation, it would probably be the Lions. But I
still don't think they lose to this this version of
the Chiefs that we have right now is currently constructed.
Speaker 2 (24:08):
It's more so.
Speaker 3 (24:09):
If you if I had to pick, it's the potential
of a look ahead of the schedule that they have
over the.
Speaker 2 (24:13):
Next couple of weeks. And I don't like either position.
Speaker 1 (24:18):
The percentages are overwhelming, and it is early. I like
to read into this stuff, but more so later in
the week the closer we get to kick off seventy
three percent of the bets eighty eight percent of the
money on the Detroit Lions as it stands right now. Now,
this stucky is where your bread is really buttered. The Ats,
Jail Birds, the Raiders, the Bengals, the Ravens one and
(24:40):
four against the spread.
Speaker 6 (24:41):
You've got teams off blowouts.
Speaker 1 (24:43):
The Ravens got blown out, the Raiders got blown out,
the Jets, the Giants. Are any of these teams by
lows for you as we enter week six? By super well, yeah,
I mean the Jets.
Speaker 4 (24:55):
It's hard to back the Jets right now, but this
is the low point of the Jets. The Broncos over
a touchdown. I could only look at the Jets like
I make at six. So the problem is that the
Jets get behind in that game, like they have no recourse,
they have no recourse playing from behind, and they've had
just some sad efforts. I mean, that was an incredibly
sad effort. Zero and four, you're getting the Cowboys in
(25:18):
a great spot. They were without four starting offensive lineman,
two starting receivers, with a bad defense, and the Jets
defense is it's it can't stop a nosebleed. But I
show value there the way that I bet the NFL.
That would be the side that I would look. But
it's not a game that I'm running to bet the Ravens.
It's all about their injuries. Like, it's not just Lamar Jackson.
(25:40):
There's an outside chance he plays, and I don't know
how the Ravens are going to handle. Like, you're one
in four, but you have a bye coming up, and
you're still playing a really good Rams team. So but
do you want to drop the one in five versus
risking Lamar if he is able to go? If he
is able to go, like, but he's definitely not gonna
bet a hun percent, and you risk losing them long term.
(26:02):
So I don't know how they're gonna wear those options.
You also have all the other injuries. You know you're
you're Ronnie Stanley or Kyle Hamilton. I mean Humphrey and
rokeland Smith, your entire defensive line, your corners, like all
these A lot of these guys are going to be out.
So it's a mess. So if you wanted to, like speculative,
bet on the Ravens plus seven and a half in
(26:23):
case the Mark comes back, it would close under seven
for sure, and then if you wanted to, you could
just get out of it. But i'd write without knowing
the injury report. I can't do anything there. The other
one you mentioned was the Raiders.
Speaker 6 (26:43):
The Raiders are four and a half point favorite.
Speaker 4 (26:45):
Yeah, it would be Raiders or nothing for me in
the Titans at four and a half, I could think
about the Raiders, And you gotta remember the Titans were
about to be down twenty eight six in that game
to the Cardinals, who are beat up a non elite team,
and they had every thing go their way. This is
still Brian Callahan, who's still four and twenty against the spread.
(27:05):
The Raiders have been a mess, but it all starts
with their offensive line, and it's caused Geno to be
a mess. Gino has been really bad under pressure when
he has to throw quick like if he has time,
is brock Bower is going to play though? Like brock
Bowers is really really critical piece to that offense.
Speaker 2 (27:21):
What a mishandled injury.
Speaker 4 (27:23):
Yeah, very very freely handled. So but like the Titans
aren't going to take advantage of the Raiders offensive line.
Arden Key also got hurt, like they just have no
edge rush. So yeah, it would be Raiders or nothing.
So yeah, again, that's just the nature of how I
bet the NFL. I would look at all those teams.
(27:45):
The Ravens are just too different. It's too difficult right
now to say anything about because of the injury report.
But of the three, I would go Raiders for this week,
Raiders then Jets, then Ravens, ranking in order of interest.
Speaker 6 (28:01):
What about you, Kendrick, Are you breaking any of them
out of bet jail?
Speaker 3 (28:05):
No, I'm not breaking any of them out of bet jail.
Yet I do agree about the injury report. I know
it's not an option that I was provided, But if
I'm going to look anywhere for like an underdog situation,
I'm kind of low key looking at the Browns to
cover the five and a half.
Speaker 2 (28:20):
So then I know, I just don't believe.
Speaker 1 (28:22):
In Yeah, that might deliver us perfectly to our plant
your flag game of the week, might flag in a
shut up.
Speaker 4 (28:34):
I'm trying to plant my flag here.
Speaker 5 (28:36):
Okay, you're really.
Speaker 6 (28:37):
Planting your flag in that thing.
Speaker 1 (28:38):
I have two that I'm deciding between and the Steelers
minus the five or four and a half, which you
can get it over on DraftKings the crown is yours,
or the.
Speaker 6 (28:49):
Panthers plus three and a half. I've been teetering.
Speaker 1 (28:52):
I have bets placed on both, so I guess I'm
just gonna say that I have two. I'm planting two
flags this week. Panthers plus three and a half at
home against the Cowboys, Steelers minus five at home against
the Browns. This is a terrible spot for the Cleveland Browns.
They come back after a trip to London, take on
a Steelers team that's been on a by and you
(29:14):
still have a rookie quarterback who looked all right, but
now he's gonna go up against the Steelers pass rush
in Pittsburgh with the terrible towels waving. I think Aaron
Rodgers is really good at getting the ball out of
his hands quickly, so he can gate some of that
pass rush from Cleveland and they might get some guys
back in this one too.
Speaker 6 (29:32):
So this feels like.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
Thirty eight and a half though, and you think that
they're gonna cover five five and a half like that,
Just that doesn't feel right to me.
Speaker 6 (29:41):
I would not bet it past five, but if you
can get it four and a half.
Speaker 1 (29:44):
Sitting right now at DraftKings, I bet it at five,
just because I don't like delay the minus one fifteen.
Speaker 6 (29:49):
I got it minus one ten.
Speaker 1 (29:51):
But the Steelers would be one the Panthers or the
other another schedule spot disaster the Cowboys. This is their
third road game in four weeks, and Stucky, you're gonna
love this one because you love my power ratings. I
have the I have the Cowboys as one point favorites
in this game. Apparently, apparently I I'm having to relook
(30:14):
at the Panthers a little bit.
Speaker 6 (30:15):
But still, even if I were to.
Speaker 1 (30:17):
Bump them up or bump them down, this is still
a bye on the Carolina Panthers. You got a Rico
Dalble revenge game. Kidding sort of. The Cowboys do have
the worst graded run defense in the NFL. Taking on
a guy that just rumbled for two hundred yards. Who
used to play for them? Ceedee Lamb might come back
in this game. That would push the line to four
(30:37):
to four and a half. So if you want to,
and the Panthers are unbeaten at home, Cowboys off of
a blowout win, so give me the points.
Speaker 6 (30:46):
I think that's but those are my those are my
two plant the flag game.
Speaker 4 (30:49):
Yeah, I mean, I don't disagree with on the Panthers,
but I gotta wait on the injury like I make
it two. On the surface, I mean, the Cowboys have
wins over the Jets and the and then a miraculous
win over Russell Wilson and the Giants. But their run
game has been really good, which like the Cardinals. Clay Adams,
he went from Arizona to Dallas in the offseason and
(31:12):
their run game has been outstanding. And we were laughing
at their coordinator, their coaching, their running back room, and
their offensive line has been hurt and their their running
game has been really good. And Dak has been amazing.
But there were about four starting offensive linemen last week.
I assumed Tyler Smith will be back. We the other three,
I don't know, Uh, Turpin and Lamb. I don't know.
(31:34):
So yeah, well, Panthers could get Coker back, which I
think could be big. I like some of the things
I saw from from uh Jimmy Horn last week. So
we had over a field goal, I don't I don't
mind that. Yeah, the spot for the Steelers is great,
but am I running to lay points with that team
(31:55):
in the divisional game with such a low total. The
Browns should be able to run the ball on the Steelers,
which is all they want to do, and then short
pass to neutralize their pass rush and they should have
success running the ball in Pittsburgh. And Judkins has looked
pretty good. So yeah, the spots scream Steelers, but I'm
(32:17):
not running to light to have needed the win by
a touchdown plus. So of those two, I think I
would prefer Carolina, but a lot of injuries to wait on.
I'll play my flag. I'll go. I'll go Falcons plus
four and a half at DraftKings or Mother Night Football
against the Bills. The Bills right now just are not
(32:38):
playing great football, and they've played since the miraculous comeback
against the Ravens. They've played a joke of a schedule.
I mean, you lose at home to the Patriots. They
were in they were at risk of losing to the
Saints at home. They were even at risk of losing
to the Dolphins at home. Those games were all close.
(32:58):
The defense is bad right now. The linebackers who are
hurt are bad. Matt Malona looks washed at Oliver. Is
he going to play? I don't know. But the secondary's
not even playing well. The safeties aren't great, the corners
aren't playing at a high level. And you can run
on Buffalo. Well, that's that's bad news. Against Atlanta and
(33:19):
their run game. With Bijon and al Jieir, I think
Atlanta will be able to move the ball. Atlanta's defense
should be healthier. Aj Terrell should come back now. Josh
Allen indoors. He's gonna score points. He's Josh Allen. But
the one thing you want to do against him, done
a lot of work on this is like you you
want to blitz him, and if you look at his
numbers just EPA for play the last two years, his
(33:42):
numbers are much worse. When you blitz him, you can't
just sit back, and you can't just sit back or
play man like he's gonna make plays. You have to
just bring pressure, and the Falcons are blitzing one of
the highest rates in the NFL, and it's an improved defense,
so if they're off the by they should be helped.
Like they're wide receivers. I've been dealing with injuries, So yeah,
(34:04):
four and a half. I think I'll plant my flag
on the Falcons on Monday Night. I think that's a
game that goes right down to the wire.
Speaker 3 (34:11):
I am going to plant my flag on the Patriots
minus three and a half, I think, regardless of the
fact that it's back to back road games for them,
it was a Drake May coming out party. I'm hoping
that they learn from their mistakes and give Trevon Henderson
some more time. I don't understand what is going on
with that coaching staff and not allowing him to play.
People up here really pissed about it, regardless of the way,
(34:34):
and I think that they're making a huge mistake with
that situation. But they're getting healthier, they're getting better. The
Saints have so many injuries. Don't really care that it's
at home for them. Spencer Ratler whatever, I get that
people think that he's out kicking his coverage a bit
that's got to end at some point. I'm sure they're
going to have some packages for Taysom Hill, but they're
just injured. And the Patriots really surprised.
Speaker 2 (34:54):
Me this week.
Speaker 3 (34:55):
I think that they're finally coming together, whether it's Drake
May finally being able to buy in or understand or
remember the Josh McDaniel's playbook, because it's known for being complicated,
and I think that that was probably a big struggle
for him in the first few weeks, was just that
he wasn't confident or caught up or well rehearsed enough
with the Josh McDaniels system to be comfortable. But they
(35:16):
they won that game the other night. They deserve to
win that game the other night. We can talk about
the Bills issues that they're having all we want, but
they still beat the Bills in Orchard Park in primetime.
I think it's a good confidence spot for them. And
you know, they finally got Hunter Henry involved in the
past game. I think that that was huge for them.
Stefan looks like he's finally healthy. I just I think
that this is a better spot for the Patriots against
a crappy New Orleans Saints team that's injured, don't.
Speaker 2 (35:40):
Care, back to back road spots.
Speaker 6 (35:41):
Whatever.
Speaker 2 (35:42):
Give me the Patriots.
Speaker 4 (35:43):
They're buying high on the Pats. And now.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
They beat the Bills, the Cowboys, and the Patriots this week.
Speaker 6 (35:54):
Who am I help?
Speaker 4 (35:56):
Yeah? I look this line is now now that it's
crossed three because the Patriots won and Drake Mays look great.
Speaker 6 (36:03):
People.
Speaker 4 (36:04):
Everyone disrespects the Saints, and the Saints are better than
people give them credit for.
Speaker 6 (36:10):
Them. There's some spread covering bastards is what they are.
Speaker 4 (36:13):
Okay, yeah, I mean they they easily could have won
in Buffalo. A couple of plays break their way. They
beat the Giants. They had one game go haywire and
it was in Seattle because of a ton of special
teams mistakes, rattlers playing decently. We'll see how this this
new Patriots team can handle. That's the success. That's just
(36:36):
it's a bad spot. Like going down to New Orleans
after that huge winning Prime time over Buffalo screams like
sleepy fat flat spot to me. And I think that
there's there's some opportunities for New Orleans to move the ball.
But I have to dig a little deeper onto that one.
But uh yeah, we shall see.
Speaker 6 (36:56):
All right, it is time for the main events.
Speaker 1 (37:00):
Evan Abrams, the director of research over at Action Network, joins.
Speaker 6 (37:03):
Us now for the primer.
Speaker 1 (37:06):
No betting week can start without reading the primer Overtactionnetwork
dot Com.
Speaker 6 (37:10):
Evan, Welcome to this show.
Speaker 7 (37:13):
What's going on everybody? I mean, we had to know
that the underdog Week was coming soon. Everyone had been
teasing it and teasing it, but it finally came upon us.
Speaker 1 (37:24):
What were the numbers that you shared on Twitter this morning?
Nine and five straight up? Was it for underdogs?
Speaker 5 (37:32):
Yeah? Crazy? So most outright?
Speaker 7 (37:34):
Nine five was right, most outright wins by dogs in
a single week since twenty two beginning of twenty twenty two,
and dogs hadn't gone nine and five straight up or
better in a single.
Speaker 5 (37:42):
Week since twenty seventeen, so we had been waiting a
little while for this.
Speaker 7 (37:46):
I think the craziest is the fact that the Niners, Titans,
Patriots all plus seven and a half all outright only
a third time last decade we've seen three of those
dogs come throughout right in a single week. I think
the interesting thing, which I'll look at and probably having
the article by today, is what happens after those weeks
when you see some of these outliers. I'm sure it's
(38:08):
not crazy, but you know, i'd be expecting fifty six
fifty five percent against the spreads for favorites. Maybe a
little bit of a bounce back, but interesting nonetheless in
terms of also the.
Speaker 5 (38:18):
Line movement this week to see if there's any impact there.
But yeah, crazy.
Speaker 1 (38:22):
One what is the what is the one the one
item from the primer that's about to drop if it
hasn't already that it stands out to you this week?
Speaker 7 (38:35):
I would just say teams off of losses, so Heurts
Mahomes Josh Stafford. How many weeks do you see were
all those quarterbacks coming off losses? And the Packers basically
not a loss but a buy off of a tie
and a loss, so they're trying to get back on
track as well. So some really good teams where I
(38:56):
think people are seeing the inevitable.
Speaker 5 (38:58):
So it's interesting to see how the lines move on that.
Speaker 7 (39:00):
And also the most fun thing, I could say, only
two qbs with three and oh ats are better as
a favorite this season Jared Duff and of course Daniel Jones,
So I can't wait to see if that continues.
Speaker 5 (39:12):
But I think that's the fun stuff.
Speaker 1 (39:14):
What about the Browns come back over from London they
didn't take the bye week. Do you have anything on
teams that have that scheduled disadvantage that don't take the
buye after the international travel.
Speaker 8 (39:28):
I mean, honestly, it's amusually with the Steelers today. Honestly,
it's usually not a terrible sign. So the in season
buy has done the Steelers well at least. I think
there's a few ways look at this.
Speaker 7 (39:39):
There's the in season by because Steeler's coming off the
buy in that one, So I think there's a way
to look at it from Tomlin's point of view. But
from the Browns, it's turning from London without a bye week.
Cleveland will be the twenty fifteen They're turned back to
the States without a bye after playing an international game
fifteen and nine straight up, thirteen and eleven ats on
a short rest situation. It's not it's not terrible, not
(40:02):
bad at all, And the Browns will be on the road.
Of the twenty four previous teams, only one didn't play
at home. So Brown's also in a unique situation where
mostly teams they send them back home after these road
trips out overseas. Brown's not in that spot, so a.
Speaker 5 (40:17):
Little bit of a unique one. But the play has
been decent.
Speaker 1 (40:20):
And how many of them are not only not at home,
but also facing a team that just came off the bye.
That's that's part of that uniqueness to it.
Speaker 7 (40:30):
I mean, what about this, I mean Brown, I mean,
you'll probably hear this all week, but they've lost twenty
one straight regular season games in Pittsburgh, so that will
be something you'll hear all week and maybe a little
motivation they aren't still.
Speaker 4 (40:41):
And at home by the teams at home off of
the by though, have been overvalue. That spot's been over
value for year. I mean, because you don't even practice
in a bye week anymore. It's just basically just a
week off. Now. It helps in the injury front, but
do you have that pandy like teams home teams home
favorites off of a bye I think I feel like
that spot's been over value for the last like five years,
(41:02):
and they haven't performed well against the spread. I could
be off though.
Speaker 2 (41:07):
Practice this week interesting.
Speaker 3 (41:09):
A bunch of people on vacation saw some of the
girly pops I know with their boyfriends on the road.
Speaker 6 (41:14):
All right, that'll do it.
Speaker 1 (41:16):
We have a lot of games that we still have
not yet to discuss, forty nine Ers Buccaneers being one
of those. How about a two touchdown favorite Green Bay
Packers taking on the disgusting Cincinnati Bengals. These are all
things that we'll get to on Thursday's episode, including our
official two Kings and a Queen parlay. That's it for
today's episode special. Thanks Deavin Abrams, we appreciate it. Go
(41:37):
check out the primer David Payne, Gifford Gould, our producers.
The Favorites will return on Thursday. Right here on the
Action Network YouTube page for week six best Bets. We'll
see here next time on The Favorites presented by Draft Kings,
where out Lego.
Speaker 2 (42:04):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
Speaker 1 (42:08):
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred Gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
We are an Action Network podcast. Your Favorite Trio is back.
I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined by the sharpest Sharps that money
can buy, Stucky and Kendra Middleton. A very exuberant Kendra
Middleton after that Jags win last night. On today's episode,
(00:30):
We've got our plant the Flag Games for week six,
a breakdown of the top storylines, and of course, the
main event evans Tuesday primer. What a weekend it was
Week five in the books, a little up and down
for the crew. The parlay picks the newly named Two
Kings and a Queen Parlay went one and two, But
we press on to week six. The Jags, of course
(00:53):
pull off what looked to be an improbable win. Trevor Lawrence,
laying on the ground down by the goal line, pops
himself back up, heroic run into the end zone, and
they trip their way into victory. I can only imagine
what the scene at the Middleton household looked like last
night as Trevor Lawrence is bumbling his way into the
(01:15):
end zone.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
I have so many thoughts. I don't even know where
to begin.
Speaker 3 (01:19):
What an emotional roller coaster this was from start to
finish for me and my entire hell of pets.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
I was screaming. I think I was crying.
Speaker 3 (01:29):
He my dog somehow slept through me screaming at my
TV for and like the whole game. Literally, I posted
a picture of him just passed out, not a thought
in the world as I'm running around losing my mind.
I the ups and downs of the Trevor Lawrence experience
is going to give me premature gray hair. I'm surprised
(01:49):
it has not caused me alcoholism. I don't even know
where to start. The delay of game penalties were insane.
Devin Lloyd, the turnaround for him is absolutely unbelievable. The
fact that they overcame some injuries last night night. What
a night from Travis Hunter on both sides of the ball.
Just I don't even know where to start. I have
so many thoughts. But Trevor Lawrence when he runs looks
like a wounded baby deer that was born last Thursday.
(02:11):
I swear to God, I have so many thoughts about
this game. I don't even I am shook. The refs also,
I don't even what are you? What are you guys
getting because the Jags come on the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (02:28):
The Chiefs had more penalty yards than the Jags did
last night, and the Jags won the game. Let's get
off the officials, stucky. What was your biggest takeaway from
last night?
Speaker 4 (02:37):
Ten Draugs hold you Jags are gonna win and cover?
Uh you weren't. You weren't as confident as I was.
This is the Jags Podcast.
Speaker 5 (02:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (02:45):
I love the Jacks. I love the Jacks coming to
the here. I still love the Jags with my ravens
and shambles. I'm now I'm now Jacks fan for the
time being, temporary Jacks fan. So it's crazy that if
the playoffs ended today, who would have thought that the
Jags and Colts matchups in December are going to determine
(03:06):
AFC supremacy. But yeah, I thought they're.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
Gonna get moved to primetime, which is hilarious.
Speaker 4 (03:11):
Jags, Yeah, Jags are gonna be a primetime da. When's
the last time you saw the Jags win on Monday
Night football? Don't even know how long of us?
Speaker 3 (03:18):
Oh my god, it's been like the better part of
a decade.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
It has to be.
Speaker 3 (03:21):
I know that they talked about it last night, But
I don't remember when it was. The last time I
saw the Jogs winning primetime was the Chargers game.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
But I was sad at that games.
Speaker 4 (03:30):
Yeah, Monday night football. But Devin Lloyd amazing's playing at
all pro level. Got to be in the defensive Player
of the Year conversation at least as of right.
Speaker 2 (03:39):
Now for sure.
Speaker 4 (03:41):
And I thought Trevor Lawrence had the best drive of
his career at the end. He made that throw on
third down down the sidelines to Thomas was unbelievable. Yeah,
I mean Liam Cohen's coaching, the defensive coaching, it's all
the special teams have been rocks out all year. That
(04:02):
the Jags were great in all three phases. And yeah,
they did have some injuries. I I did think the
Chiefs offense, like I was like, all right, and I
don't I need to see more because the Ravens defense
was so banned up. But the Chiefs offense did did
look a lot better. I mean, they had like a
sixty four percent success rate, which I think was the
highest of the year for any team. So there's there's
(04:22):
a lot of juice in that Chiefs offense. What especially
once they get Rashi Rice back, Butker might be washed.
You could argue he's cost.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
The he is, thank god, he's definitely yeah.
Speaker 4 (04:37):
Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
That was what led the Jags to be able to
get ahead last night, was that he kicked the kick
off out.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
Of bounds and you know what, whatever, screw them.
Speaker 3 (04:48):
The thing that for me that makes me feel a
little bit better is if I don't know if the
Bible says like thou shalt not let Breton Strange tush
push you or something, because Trevor Lawrence is scared of
letting him touch his butt. But had they done the
toush push and knock going over the top on that,
it would have been a they would have been a
you know, two score game for them, Like I just
I don't know how learned that last.
Speaker 4 (05:07):
Yeah, because the strangers right behind him, so you got
to do a normal I mean, he was an inch
away from getting in, but you just got to do
a normal regulars get over it. Yeah, that that almost
I'm shocked that they were able to overcome that. Lloyd
helped because I stole a possession. But the old Jags,
I tweeted this out. The old Jags would have folded
(05:30):
when they were down for and they the old Jags
I mean I'm talking like at the last couple of years,
had no resiliency and once they went down fourteen to nothing,
it would have been lights out. But the defense got
to stop at the end of the first half, and
then a stop to start the second half, which was
just massive because the game could have slipped away. And
(05:51):
then they stole that possession back to make up for
the Lawrence goal line fumble with a goal line pick
that Lloyd took ninety nine the other way. So yeah,
I think that the Jags are are legit. You're right, Hunter,
if you look at the I mean, if you just
take pff you look at the five highest graded players
(06:12):
of last time as a receiver and Hunter as a
d backer in the top five, and he made some
great plays on both sides of the ball. So uh yeah,
I think that the Jags are legit and they easily
could be five and oh if they didn't melt down
versus first Jake Browning and undefeated.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
Yeah, and I believe in the Chiefs. I think the
Chiefs are still a good team. But this is what
the schedule will do to you. If you're too good
for too long. Eventually, the NFL will make it an impossible,
treacherous gauntlet for you. The Chiefs no rest for the weary,
another primetime game at home against the Detroit Lions.
Speaker 6 (06:55):
So even if they.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
Play well like they played well last night, they can
play well on Sunday night and they can still lose
that one too. And here you are looking at a
Chiefs team that right now outside looking in in terms
of the playoffs.
Speaker 4 (07:10):
Three and one score games at their ten and l
last year.
Speaker 6 (07:12):
And that's the thing.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
Like that exactly, the regression is going to get you.
I feel like when we take a closer look at
the luck rankings that the Jags are going to be
bumped up a little bit based on Devin Lloyd going
across the field for a touchdown and uh, some of
the turnover worthy plays that Trevor Lawrence had, the weird
fall down touchdown he had at the end. There are
a lot of things that broke Jacksonville's way in this
(07:35):
game in order then to get down, but I get
up again.
Speaker 4 (07:40):
Yeah, I think it was just a back and forth game.
I mean, like you could argue the Chiefs fuck that
they had an interception on a twenty yard touchdown drive
that was because of past interference. The offensiveass interference is questionable.
The Jags, you know, fumbled at the one, so I
think there was both teams that things go for them
and against them. I don't think it was terribly lucky.
(08:02):
I mean, that was just one of those games where
whoever had the ball last felt like was gonna win.
So yeah, obviously a one score win for the Jags,
but I don't think it was it was terribly lucky.
There are some injuries to note, like, they had some
offensive line injuries. Strange got hurt, so there's some things
to know.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
But he came back in.
Speaker 4 (08:25):
Yeah, Anton Harrison, he was in and out, so we'll see.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
You're hitting a peak for him though, so hopefully he's okay.
Speaker 4 (08:31):
Yeah, he's looked, he's looked.
Speaker 2 (08:33):
No, Trayvon Walker is the story of this game though.
Speaker 4 (08:36):
Yes, they they couldn't get pressure. You could just tell
how much they missed him because they were incapable of
generating any pressure naturally, because it's just, hey, you have
to worry about Alan, and if you just have to
worry about Alan, you know you can slide protection, you
can you can help. But if you have Alan and Walker,
(08:58):
they become so much more difficul to contain both. But yeah,
he was definitely missed, so we'll see. The Seahawks also
have a ton of injuries, the main ones to keep
an eye on there, which we'll talk about later in
the week, or or in the secondary. I mean the
Seahawks came into the Bucks game hurt in the secondary
and then lost more guys in the secondary and they
(09:19):
were down. They were decimated by the end of that game.
So definitely there's a lot of injury games this year,
a lot of injuries to keep tracking.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
Yeah, here's my thing with this for our podcast. Jags though.
Speaker 3 (09:35):
They play Seattle this week at home and then technically
I do think that they'll wind up losing the Seattle game.
I said that on our Sunday show just because that
would be the most Jacksonville Jaguars thing ever to beat
the Chiefs in primetime and then turn around and lose
to the Seattle Seahawks, just because I've watched this team
for long enough.
Speaker 2 (09:52):
That's the vibe that I get from them.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
But the issue with continuing to bet them that people
need to pay attention to. They don't have another home
game I think until November ninth, technically after Seattle, because
you can claim the London game as a home game,
it might help them that. Obviously they've gone through that
schedule before, like the going overseas, YadA YadA.
Speaker 2 (10:08):
They have like kind of a routine about it at
this point. But they have Seattle at.
Speaker 3 (10:13):
Home, go to London, bye week, two away games, so
that's you know, a lot of time not really spent
in your home stadium. When you're an undefeated team, it's
a long time to not have a home game. So
that's the only thing that I would keep in mind
if you want to bet on the Jags. I personally
am going to stay away from them with Seattle just
because it feels like a Seattle spot. And then La
obviously they're a good team and it's technically a neutral,
(10:36):
neutral game, even though I'm sure there's going to be
more Jags fans. But after like they don't have another
home game until November ninth, that's a long.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
Time you have set the cross country travel Jacksonville in
the short week. I feel like those two kind of
nullify each other. So really even match up, I think
this is gonna be a tough one to find a
side that we're in love with in this game.
Speaker 4 (10:56):
Yeah, I'm the injuries to keep an eye on for
the We mentioned the jas Ones, but just to throw
the names out there for Seattle, I mean, they were
without at the end of that game. They were without
three starters in the secondary, Witherspoon, Love wool and we're
all hurt, and then DeMarcus Lawrence as well. So the
Seahawks defense, especially in the back end, is uh. And
(11:18):
then you're missing one of your best edge rushers. Definitely,
it was a kind of a shell unit by the
end of that Bucks game. So that's something to keep
an eye on there for the injuries. But yeah, I
mean the Jags are they're gonna they're gonna be in
the mix for this division in the playoff spot all
the way to the end, so you know, and Theirs
their schedule when you look at it, it's.
Speaker 2 (11:40):
You know, it is the gauntlet piece of it, this
like until.
Speaker 4 (11:42):
Like Rams neutral then by that's a tough stretch, but
you have then you're Vegas, Texans Chargers at home, Cardinals, Titans, Jets, uh,
the Titans again and then the two matchups with the Colts,
which as of right now it looks like those two
could decide the division.
Speaker 3 (12:04):
Cowen could pass Gus Bradley in wins as a Jaguars
head coach before the season even ends.
Speaker 6 (12:11):
Or went out for Gus.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
Well, okay, here's the.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
Other thing though, Like with Seattle, we can move on
from this in a second. The only other thing that
I would say we kind of maybe have to consider
is what's going on with Kenneth Walker and Charbonnay, Like
who is their lead back there? That whole situation confuses
me too. But other than that, I'm happy. I'll take
the dub. This was the gauntlet pieces of the schedule.
Speaker 2 (12:31):
I'm dragging off.
Speaker 1 (12:32):
Yeah we uh yeah, group group Jag off here. I
feel like we've you know, we've banked on the Jags
and only get caught with your hand in the cookie jar.
Maybe take the week off. We did have some injuries
this week, as we always do. As Stuck he mentioned,
there is a lot there's a lot of little items
throughout the league to pay attention to. Amaro Hampton went
(12:53):
down with the Chargers. He looks like he's gonna be
out multiple weeks. Antonio Gibson with the Patriots has done
for the year. I mean those are just some of
the little ones. But I think the most impactful in
terms of a singular injury, not these clusters that we're
talking about. Spencer Schrader of the Colts. The Colts have
been dynamite this year and their kicker has been awesome
(13:13):
thirteen of fourteen in field goal attempts. He's made all
of his extra points. How much stucky would you downgrade
Indianapolis without their kicker because we don't know who they're
gonna go and pick up off the street.
Speaker 4 (13:26):
I mean, not at all, but I mean he's still
a kicker. We'll see who they get. It's like noteworthy,
but at the end of the day, it's still a kicker.
And Trader's been good this year, but it's not like
he's prime. Justin Tucker has proven it over years and years.
My biggest concern in injury wise is the Chargers offensive line,
(13:53):
and maybe Miami can't take advantage of it. But the
last two weeks against the Giants and Washington, Chargers offense
has been completely dysfunctional because they cannot block anybody and
they suffered more than you know. Obviously you lose both
your tackles, but now your guards have been hurt your back,
your one of your your backup tackles was hurt last
(14:14):
week that had it that it is now forced to start.
Their offensive line is a disaster and it's ruining the
entire offense. And now you have no backs. Your top
two backs are done. So the Chargers offensive injuries are
potentially devastating. Now that's the matchup with the week for me, Like, Okay,
(14:35):
you have this Chargers, their backup running backs, you have
all these offensive line injuries going up against the Dolphins
defense that isn't generating pressure and just gave up two
hundred and ten yards to reco daddle and back up
offensive lineman on the Panthers. So what gives? I don't know.
I know Kendra I think likes the likes the Chargers
(14:58):
and that the Dolphins just might be a dead walking
But yeah, the that just might derail the Chargers season.
Looking long term, if is that offensive line because the
last two weeks their offense has just been completely dysfunctional.
Speaker 6 (15:12):
Yeah, the Dolphins just can't get pressure.
Speaker 3 (15:14):
No.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
I was doing some research and it looks like the
options for the Colts are gonna be I think Greg's
er Lion or Dustin Hopkins because Eddie Periniro got signed
obviously by the forty nine ers.
Speaker 4 (15:25):
Oh, Greg, gregor leg I'll download. I'll downgrade them a
touchdown after what I saw with the.
Speaker 6 (15:31):
This is what I'm saying.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
I mean, I get that it's a kicker the Colts overall,
this isn't just kicking, but overall PFF grade has them
as the fifth best special teams unit in the NFL,
and everything is working well for them without one of
those key components to special teams. It does feel like
it's a hit that you don't realize as a hit
(15:52):
until you need it. And we'll see who they end
up filling that gap with. I could kick, Like no,
I mean, I don't know who those filling options would
be or how confident I should be.
Speaker 4 (16:05):
Santas can't kick apparently, I mean, and that they weren't
even attempting to do it in the game against the Raiders,
like they were just going forward every time on two
point conversions, and that was in a blowout, So you
would think that like if he was able to kick,
they would That would be a perfect time.
Speaker 2 (16:23):
The MLS season's about to end. Go find go find
an MLS.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
Player, Grab a Golden Boot, but the Dolphins it should be.
I mean, the Dolphins catching points at home with the
team traveling from the West Coast.
Speaker 6 (16:37):
Does feel like Okay and the Dolphins.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
The last time the Dolphins played the Chargers, this is
a couple of years ago now, I think it was
to his best game of his career, over four hundred
yards passing three touchdowns. There's something about this team. Maybe
it's the Justin Herbert, same draft class thing that gets
them going. But I just can't back Miami because it
feels like every time they lose.
Speaker 6 (16:57):
The bottom's about to fall out.
Speaker 1 (16:59):
And I hate being on a team that quits on
their coach, and it feels like we are moments away
from that happening in Miami, especially with the way they
they had no business losing that game to Carolina.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
I want nothing to do with the Dolphins this week.
Even though the Chargers are injured.
Speaker 3 (17:14):
It feels like they're seasons insane and their division's really tough.
You cannot and will not get me to back the
Dolphins in this spot.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
I just I can't.
Speaker 3 (17:24):
I don't know if you guys watched McDaniel's press conference
after this game. I don't even in really, Oh my god,
the things that.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
He's saying just don't even make sense.
Speaker 3 (17:32):
He just he he wants to go be a coordinator somewhere.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
He's done. I think he's given up.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
This team with the injuries has and just the team
in general, I think has killed this man. He's not
been the same since Tua got hurt for the second time.
Like I just it's over, it's done, wrap it up.
I wouldn't be surprised if this team just goes belly up,
regardless of whatever's going on with this Chargers team.
Speaker 2 (17:55):
Can't do it.
Speaker 4 (17:57):
Oh, by the way, Colts kicker. Look, the Colts stole
the Ravens team once overnight, maybe week ten.
Speaker 2 (18:09):
Justin Tucker, I mean, he's washed and you cannot bring but.
Speaker 4 (18:16):
He's better than Greg Zerline.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
But what if he's in jail by then, I don't know.
Speaker 4 (18:22):
Know, I'm just throwing it out there. Would be funny
if the Colts sent it up.
Speaker 3 (18:26):
I had that thought too, But I don't think that
you can jeopardize the camaraderie that you have in your
locker room right now with a guy who has like
multiple cases. Like that's just that's not It would be
funny and I thought the same thought crossed my mind,
just because it's probably an option.
Speaker 2 (18:45):
But I don't think you can have the.
Speaker 3 (18:46):
Bad press and all of that the stuff that comes
with it and mess up this weird mojo that you've
got going on.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
The cults are vibe right now, Aura, Aura, a little
bit of the antydimes.
Speaker 6 (18:57):
Aura.
Speaker 1 (18:58):
The Favorites a sponsored by DraftKings and in partnership with DraftKings,
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(19:19):
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Speaker 6 (19:24):
The crown is yours.
Speaker 1 (19:27):
ATS Standings Report, the Lions, Colts, Jags. As we know
this is a Jags podcast. We're having a Jag slumber party.
Last night, All four and one ats on the season.
Last week's Ats demon that we faded was the Eagles
that paid off Broncos come back and win and cover
and all of that. Does anyone want to stand a
(19:48):
post to the teams right now that are cashing tickets
left and right. You get the Lions at Kansas City,
the Colts at home against Arizona, or the Jaguars at
home again the Seattle Seahawks who already sort of dismissed
that one, but feel free to save this in your
back pocket if it's a point your flag game. But Stucky,
(20:08):
are you fading the Lions or the Colts this week?
Speaker 4 (20:12):
Yeah? I got to dig into the I mean, the
Cardinals have a ton of injuries. The Colts are fairly
healthy of Alec Pierce, Grover's store who matters to the run,
Dye a lot got banged out. Then you have Kenny Moore,
He's really important, especially since his backup who they signed
also got hurt. So there's some injuries there. I got
to figure out where that This line is getting a
(20:33):
little too high for me. I mean, but I got
figureut where the Cardinals are at mentally, and they have
a lot of injuries on both sides of the ball.
But like, how do they respond to that game with
everything that went down?
Speaker 6 (20:48):
That was awesome.
Speaker 1 (20:50):
It's and by the way, the Titans. The Titans meanwhile
breakout of solitary confinement.
Speaker 6 (20:57):
So congrats to the Titans. Bring a spread.
Speaker 4 (21:01):
Yeah, I mean they had no business copy. They were
about to be down twenty eight to six. They don't
drive the flukiest wins I've ever seen, but I might
fade the Lions if I had to choose with the Chiefs.
Like I said, the Chiefs offense, I believe in it
after what I saw last week, last week or last night,
and then the week before, I had some doubts because
(21:21):
they played the Ravens, and the Ravens right now are
the worst team in the NFL, and the Lions have
what the They have one of the worst strength of
victories in the NFL right now. So yeah, they've been winning,
but you look back. They beat the Bears, who were
without half their starters on defense, and it was in Detroit.
(21:42):
They beat the Ravens. So I just told you all
their injury. I mean, look at the Ravens have been
in their defense over the past few weeks, that the
most hurt team in the NFL. They beat Joe Flacco
and the Browns at home, and then they beat then
they beat Jake Browning who threw basically gifted them the
game in the first half with four short fields and
three interceptions and could not hit an open receiver to
(22:03):
save his life. So yeah, the Lions have won and
covered four straight. But if you dig a little deeper,
it's like, Okay, who did it really come against? So
I do think the chief should be able to move
the ball at will the Lion's off. It's a lot
of success here too, but backs against the wall at home,
I think I might trust the Chiefs here to get
(22:25):
it done.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
The Lions are a tough team to fade every week.
Evan Abrams shares the numbers on what Golf and Campbell
have done over seventy percent against the spread this year.
They're over eighty percent against the spread. But I think
stuck He's right. This feels like a by low Kansas
City Chief spot. When I mean heed detailed it Bears, Ravens, Browns, Bengals.
Speaker 6 (22:52):
Is that really that impressive? And they have.
Speaker 4 (22:55):
You think about all the injuries too on those teams.
Speaker 1 (22:58):
Exactly, So they're a little bit right now. As great
as they are, this is a week to fade them.
I'm I think I'm gonna end up on Kansas City.
Speaker 2 (23:07):
That's crazy answer.
Speaker 4 (23:09):
That's the question.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
Here's that that's a great point. My thing is.
Speaker 3 (23:14):
It's hard because it's a short week for the Chiefs,
but you can almost get me to think I don't
I can't fait the Colts just because they don't even
have like a look ahead angle, but the meat of
the Lions' schedule is about to happen. You can't ever
count out a Chiefs team, but they've got bucks. The Vikings,
I think are better than they've looked the last couple
of weeks. Commanders obviously can't count them out. Eagles, and
(23:37):
like the rest of their they have a tough remaining schedule.
That's like the hard part for me on getting to
the window on the Lions. I think that they beat
the Chiefs, probably by a field goal, So I would
probably like this number if it stays the same by
the time we have more information on injury reports on Thursday.
Speaker 2 (23:55):
But it's I can't fait the Colts. Their schedule is
too easy.
Speaker 3 (23:59):
If I have to pick guy to my head type
of situation, it would probably be the Lions. But I
still don't think they lose to this this version of
the Chiefs that we have right now is currently constructed.
Speaker 2 (24:08):
It's more so.
Speaker 3 (24:09):
If you if I had to pick, it's the potential
of a look ahead of the schedule that they have
over the.
Speaker 2 (24:13):
Next couple of weeks. And I don't like either position.
Speaker 1 (24:18):
The percentages are overwhelming, and it is early. I like
to read into this stuff, but more so later in
the week the closer we get to kick off seventy
three percent of the bets eighty eight percent of the
money on the Detroit Lions as it stands right now. Now,
this stucky is where your bread is really buttered. The Ats,
Jail Birds, the Raiders, the Bengals, the Ravens one and
(24:40):
four against the spread.
Speaker 6 (24:41):
You've got teams off blowouts.
Speaker 1 (24:43):
The Ravens got blown out, the Raiders got blown out,
the Jets, the Giants. Are any of these teams by
lows for you as we enter week six? By super well, yeah,
I mean the Jets.
Speaker 4 (24:55):
It's hard to back the Jets right now, but this
is the low point of the Jets. The Broncos over
a touchdown. I could only look at the Jets like
I make at six. So the problem is that the
Jets get behind in that game, like they have no recourse,
they have no recourse playing from behind, and they've had
just some sad efforts. I mean, that was an incredibly
sad effort. Zero and four, you're getting the Cowboys in
(25:18):
a great spot. They were without four starting offensive lineman,
two starting receivers, with a bad defense, and the Jets
defense is it's it can't stop a nosebleed. But I
show value there the way that I bet the NFL.
That would be the side that I would look. But
it's not a game that I'm running to bet the Ravens.
It's all about their injuries. Like, it's not just Lamar Jackson.
(25:40):
There's an outside chance he plays, and I don't know
how the Ravens are going to handle. Like, you're one
in four, but you have a bye coming up, and
you're still playing a really good Rams team. So but
do you want to drop the one in five versus
risking Lamar if he is able to go? If he
is able to go, like, but he's definitely not gonna
bet a hun percent, and you risk losing them long term.
(26:02):
So I don't know how they're gonna wear those options.
You also have all the other injuries. You know you're
you're Ronnie Stanley or Kyle Hamilton. I mean Humphrey and
rokeland Smith, your entire defensive line, your corners, like all
these A lot of these guys are going to be out.
So it's a mess. So if you wanted to, like speculative,
bet on the Ravens plus seven and a half in
(26:23):
case the Mark comes back, it would close under seven
for sure, and then if you wanted to, you could
just get out of it. But i'd write without knowing
the injury report. I can't do anything there. The other
one you mentioned was the Raiders.
Speaker 6 (26:43):
The Raiders are four and a half point favorite.
Speaker 4 (26:45):
Yeah, it would be Raiders or nothing for me in
the Titans at four and a half, I could think
about the Raiders, And you gotta remember the Titans were
about to be down twenty eight six in that game
to the Cardinals, who are beat up a non elite team,
and they had every thing go their way. This is
still Brian Callahan, who's still four and twenty against the spread.
(27:05):
The Raiders have been a mess, but it all starts
with their offensive line, and it's caused Geno to be
a mess. Gino has been really bad under pressure when
he has to throw quick like if he has time,
is brock Bower is going to play though? Like brock
Bowers is really really critical piece to that offense.
Speaker 2 (27:21):
What a mishandled injury.
Speaker 4 (27:23):
Yeah, very very freely handled. So but like the Titans
aren't going to take advantage of the Raiders offensive line.
Arden Key also got hurt, like they just have no
edge rush. So yeah, it would be Raiders or nothing.
So yeah, again, that's just the nature of how I
bet the NFL. I would look at all those teams.
(27:45):
The Ravens are just too different. It's too difficult right
now to say anything about because of the injury report.
But of the three, I would go Raiders for this week,
Raiders then Jets, then Ravens, ranking in order of interest.
Speaker 6 (28:01):
What about you, Kendrick, Are you breaking any of them
out of bet jail?
Speaker 3 (28:05):
No, I'm not breaking any of them out of bet jail.
Yet I do agree about the injury report. I know
it's not an option that I was provided, But if
I'm going to look anywhere for like an underdog situation,
I'm kind of low key looking at the Browns to
cover the five and a half.
Speaker 2 (28:20):
So then I know, I just don't believe.
Speaker 1 (28:22):
In Yeah, that might deliver us perfectly to our plant
your flag game of the week, might flag in a
shut up.
Speaker 4 (28:34):
I'm trying to plant my flag here.
Speaker 5 (28:36):
Okay, you're really.
Speaker 6 (28:37):
Planting your flag in that thing.
Speaker 1 (28:38):
I have two that I'm deciding between and the Steelers
minus the five or four and a half, which you
can get it over on DraftKings the crown is yours,
or the.
Speaker 6 (28:49):
Panthers plus three and a half. I've been teetering.
Speaker 1 (28:52):
I have bets placed on both, so I guess I'm
just gonna say that I have two. I'm planting two
flags this week. Panthers plus three and a half at
home against the Cowboys, Steelers minus five at home against
the Browns. This is a terrible spot for the Cleveland Browns.
They come back after a trip to London, take on
a Steelers team that's been on a by and you
(29:14):
still have a rookie quarterback who looked all right, but
now he's gonna go up against the Steelers pass rush
in Pittsburgh with the terrible towels waving. I think Aaron
Rodgers is really good at getting the ball out of
his hands quickly, so he can gate some of that
pass rush from Cleveland and they might get some guys
back in this one too.
Speaker 6 (29:32):
So this feels like.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
Thirty eight and a half though, and you think that
they're gonna cover five five and a half like that,
Just that doesn't feel right to me.
Speaker 6 (29:41):
I would not bet it past five, but if you
can get it four and a half.
Speaker 1 (29:44):
Sitting right now at DraftKings, I bet it at five,
just because I don't like delay the minus one fifteen.
Speaker 6 (29:49):
I got it minus one ten.
Speaker 1 (29:51):
But the Steelers would be one the Panthers or the
other another schedule spot disaster the Cowboys. This is their
third road game in four weeks, and Stucky, you're gonna
love this one because you love my power ratings. I
have the I have the Cowboys as one point favorites
in this game. Apparently, apparently I I'm having to relook
(30:14):
at the Panthers a little bit.
Speaker 6 (30:15):
But still, even if I were to.
Speaker 1 (30:17):
Bump them up or bump them down, this is still
a bye on the Carolina Panthers. You got a Rico
Dalble revenge game. Kidding sort of. The Cowboys do have
the worst graded run defense in the NFL. Taking on
a guy that just rumbled for two hundred yards. Who
used to play for them? Ceedee Lamb might come back
in this game. That would push the line to four
(30:37):
to four and a half. So if you want to,
and the Panthers are unbeaten at home, Cowboys off of
a blowout win, so give me the points.
Speaker 6 (30:46):
I think that's but those are my those are my
two plant the flag game.
Speaker 4 (30:49):
Yeah, I mean, I don't disagree with on the Panthers,
but I gotta wait on the injury like I make
it two. On the surface, I mean, the Cowboys have
wins over the Jets and the and then a miraculous
win over Russell Wilson and the Giants. But their run
game has been really good, which like the Cardinals. Clay Adams,
he went from Arizona to Dallas in the offseason and
(31:12):
their run game has been outstanding. And we were laughing
at their coordinator, their coaching, their running back room, and
their offensive line has been hurt and their their running
game has been really good. And Dak has been amazing.
But there were about four starting offensive linemen last week.
I assumed Tyler Smith will be back. We the other three,
I don't know, Uh, Turpin and Lamb. I don't know.
(31:34):
So yeah, well, Panthers could get Coker back, which I
think could be big. I like some of the things
I saw from from uh Jimmy Horn last week. So
we had over a field goal, I don't I don't
mind that. Yeah, the spot for the Steelers is great,
but am I running to lay points with that team
(31:55):
in the divisional game with such a low total. The
Browns should be able to run the ball on the Steelers,
which is all they want to do, and then short
pass to neutralize their pass rush and they should have
success running the ball in Pittsburgh. And Judkins has looked
pretty good. So yeah, the spots scream Steelers, but I'm
(32:17):
not running to light to have needed the win by
a touchdown plus. So of those two, I think I
would prefer Carolina, but a lot of injuries to wait on.
I'll play my flag. I'll go. I'll go Falcons plus
four and a half at DraftKings or Mother Night Football
against the Bills. The Bills right now just are not
(32:38):
playing great football, and they've played since the miraculous comeback
against the Ravens. They've played a joke of a schedule.
I mean, you lose at home to the Patriots. They
were in they were at risk of losing to the
Saints at home. They were even at risk of losing
to the Dolphins at home. Those games were all close.
(32:58):
The defense is bad right now. The linebackers who are
hurt are bad. Matt Malona looks washed at Oliver. Is
he going to play? I don't know. But the secondary's
not even playing well. The safeties aren't great, the corners
aren't playing at a high level. And you can run
on Buffalo. Well, that's that's bad news. Against Atlanta and
(33:19):
their run game. With Bijon and al Jieir, I think
Atlanta will be able to move the ball. Atlanta's defense
should be healthier. Aj Terrell should come back now. Josh
Allen indoors. He's gonna score points. He's Josh Allen. But
the one thing you want to do against him, done
a lot of work on this is like you you
want to blitz him, and if you look at his
numbers just EPA for play the last two years, his
(33:42):
numbers are much worse. When you blitz him, you can't
just sit back, and you can't just sit back or
play man like he's gonna make plays. You have to
just bring pressure, and the Falcons are blitzing one of
the highest rates in the NFL, and it's an improved defense,
so if they're off the by they should be helped.
Like they're wide receivers. I've been dealing with injuries, So yeah,
(34:04):
four and a half. I think I'll plant my flag
on the Falcons on Monday Night. I think that's a
game that goes right down to the wire.
Speaker 3 (34:11):
I am going to plant my flag on the Patriots
minus three and a half, I think, regardless of the
fact that it's back to back road games for them,
it was a Drake May coming out party. I'm hoping
that they learn from their mistakes and give Trevon Henderson
some more time. I don't understand what is going on
with that coaching staff and not allowing him to play.
People up here really pissed about it, regardless of the way,
(34:34):
and I think that they're making a huge mistake with
that situation. But they're getting healthier, they're getting better. The
Saints have so many injuries. Don't really care that it's
at home for them. Spencer Ratler whatever, I get that
people think that he's out kicking his coverage a bit
that's got to end at some point. I'm sure they're
going to have some packages for Taysom Hill, but they're
just injured. And the Patriots really surprised.
Speaker 2 (34:54):
Me this week.
Speaker 3 (34:55):
I think that they're finally coming together, whether it's Drake
May finally being able to buy in or understand or
remember the Josh McDaniel's playbook, because it's known for being complicated,
and I think that that was probably a big struggle
for him in the first few weeks, was just that
he wasn't confident or caught up or well rehearsed enough
with the Josh McDaniels system to be comfortable. But they
(35:16):
they won that game the other night. They deserve to
win that game the other night. We can talk about
the Bills issues that they're having all we want, but
they still beat the Bills in Orchard Park in primetime.
I think it's a good confidence spot for them. And
you know, they finally got Hunter Henry involved in the
past game. I think that that was huge for them.
Stefan looks like he's finally healthy. I just I think
that this is a better spot for the Patriots against
a crappy New Orleans Saints team that's injured, don't.
Speaker 2 (35:40):
Care, back to back road spots.
Speaker 6 (35:41):
Whatever.
Speaker 2 (35:42):
Give me the Patriots.
Speaker 4 (35:43):
They're buying high on the Pats. And now.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
They beat the Bills, the Cowboys, and the Patriots this week.
Speaker 6 (35:54):
Who am I help?
Speaker 4 (35:56):
Yeah? I look this line is now now that it's
crossed three because the Patriots won and Drake Mays look great.
Speaker 6 (36:03):
People.
Speaker 4 (36:04):
Everyone disrespects the Saints, and the Saints are better than
people give them credit for.
Speaker 6 (36:10):
Them. There's some spread covering bastards is what they are.
Speaker 4 (36:13):
Okay, yeah, I mean they they easily could have won
in Buffalo. A couple of plays break their way. They
beat the Giants. They had one game go haywire and
it was in Seattle because of a ton of special
teams mistakes, rattlers playing decently. We'll see how this this
new Patriots team can handle. That's the success. That's just
(36:36):
it's a bad spot. Like going down to New Orleans
after that huge winning Prime time over Buffalo screams like
sleepy fat flat spot to me. And I think that
there's there's some opportunities for New Orleans to move the ball.
But I have to dig a little deeper onto that one.
But uh yeah, we shall see.
Speaker 6 (36:56):
All right, it is time for the main events.
Speaker 1 (37:00):
Evan Abrams, the director of research over at Action Network, joins.
Speaker 6 (37:03):
Us now for the primer.
Speaker 1 (37:06):
No betting week can start without reading the primer Overtactionnetwork
dot Com.
Speaker 6 (37:10):
Evan, Welcome to this show.
Speaker 7 (37:13):
What's going on everybody? I mean, we had to know
that the underdog Week was coming soon. Everyone had been
teasing it and teasing it, but it finally came upon us.
Speaker 1 (37:24):
What were the numbers that you shared on Twitter this morning?
Nine and five straight up? Was it for underdogs?
Speaker 5 (37:32):
Yeah? Crazy? So most outright?
Speaker 7 (37:34):
Nine five was right, most outright wins by dogs in
a single week since twenty two beginning of twenty twenty two,
and dogs hadn't gone nine and five straight up or
better in a single.
Speaker 5 (37:42):
Week since twenty seventeen, so we had been waiting a
little while for this.
Speaker 7 (37:46):
I think the craziest is the fact that the Niners, Titans,
Patriots all plus seven and a half all outright only
a third time last decade we've seen three of those
dogs come throughout right in a single week. I think
the interesting thing, which I'll look at and probably having
the article by today, is what happens after those weeks
when you see some of these outliers. I'm sure it's
(38:08):
not crazy, but you know, i'd be expecting fifty six
fifty five percent against the spreads for favorites. Maybe a
little bit of a bounce back, but interesting nonetheless in
terms of also the.
Speaker 5 (38:18):
Line movement this week to see if there's any impact there.
But yeah, crazy.
Speaker 1 (38:22):
One what is the what is the one the one
item from the primer that's about to drop if it
hasn't already that it stands out to you this week?
Speaker 7 (38:35):
I would just say teams off of losses, so Heurts
Mahomes Josh Stafford. How many weeks do you see were
all those quarterbacks coming off losses? And the Packers basically
not a loss but a buy off of a tie
and a loss, so they're trying to get back on
track as well. So some really good teams where I
(38:56):
think people are seeing the inevitable.
Speaker 5 (38:58):
So it's interesting to see how the lines move on that.
Speaker 7 (39:00):
And also the most fun thing, I could say, only
two qbs with three and oh ats are better as
a favorite this season Jared Duff and of course Daniel Jones,
So I can't wait to see if that continues.
Speaker 5 (39:12):
But I think that's the fun stuff.
Speaker 1 (39:14):
What about the Browns come back over from London they
didn't take the bye week. Do you have anything on
teams that have that scheduled disadvantage that don't take the
buye after the international travel.
Speaker 8 (39:28):
I mean, honestly, it's amusually with the Steelers today. Honestly,
it's usually not a terrible sign. So the in season
buy has done the Steelers well at least. I think
there's a few ways look at this.
Speaker 7 (39:39):
There's the in season by because Steeler's coming off the
buy in that one, So I think there's a way
to look at it from Tomlin's point of view. But
from the Browns, it's turning from London without a bye week.
Cleveland will be the twenty fifteen They're turned back to
the States without a bye after playing an international game
fifteen and nine straight up, thirteen and eleven ats on
a short rest situation. It's not it's not terrible, not
(40:02):
bad at all, And the Browns will be on the road.
Of the twenty four previous teams, only one didn't play
at home. So Brown's also in a unique situation where
mostly teams they send them back home after these road
trips out overseas. Brown's not in that spot, so a.
Speaker 5 (40:17):
Little bit of a unique one. But the play has
been decent.
Speaker 1 (40:20):
And how many of them are not only not at home,
but also facing a team that just came off the bye.
That's that's part of that uniqueness to it.
Speaker 7 (40:30):
I mean, what about this, I mean Brown, I mean,
you'll probably hear this all week, but they've lost twenty
one straight regular season games in Pittsburgh, so that will
be something you'll hear all week and maybe a little
motivation they aren't still.
Speaker 4 (40:41):
And at home by the teams at home off of
the by though, have been overvalue. That spot's been over
value for year. I mean, because you don't even practice
in a bye week anymore. It's just basically just a
week off. Now. It helps in the injury front, but
do you have that pandy like teams home teams home
favorites off of a bye I think I feel like
that spot's been over value for the last like five years,
(41:02):
and they haven't performed well against the spread. I could
be off though.
Speaker 2 (41:07):
Practice this week interesting.
Speaker 3 (41:09):
A bunch of people on vacation saw some of the
girly pops I know with their boyfriends on the road.
Speaker 6 (41:14):
All right, that'll do it.
Speaker 1 (41:16):
We have a lot of games that we still have
not yet to discuss, forty nine Ers Buccaneers being one
of those. How about a two touchdown favorite Green Bay
Packers taking on the disgusting Cincinnati Bengals. These are all
things that we'll get to on Thursday's episode, including our
official two Kings and a Queen parlay. That's it for
today's episode special. Thanks Deavin Abrams, we appreciate it. Go
(41:37):
check out the primer David Payne, Gifford Gould, our producers.
The Favorites will return on Thursday. Right here on the
Action Network YouTube page for week six best Bets. We'll
see here next time on The Favorites presented by Draft Kings,
where out Lego.
Speaker 2 (42:04):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
Speaker 1 (42:08):
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred Gambler
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