October 14, 2025 • 45 mins
The Favorites is back after another Monday Night Football double-header! Are you as sick of those as we are? Action Network hosts Kendra Middleton, Stuckey and Brandon Kravitz return to the show for a quick look back at Week 6 as they turn their sights on the week ahead. It's time for some deep fried butter, a college football pick looking through an NFL lens and the crew plants their flag early in the week. Plus, we get some nuggets from the weekly NFL Primer courtesy of Action Director of Research Evan Abrams, delivering everything needed to start digging into the betting week in the NFL.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
We are an Action Network podcast. Your Favorites Trio back
at it Group Hug, we missed each other. I'm Brandon Kravitz,
joined by the one and Only Stucky and Kendrim Middleton.
On today's episode, We've got our plant the Flag game
for week seven, a breakdown of the top storylines. We
(00:30):
have a fired head coach in the NFL, and of
course the main event Evan Abrams and his Tuesday primer.
But before we get to the important stuff, guys, how
do we feel about uncrustables as adult snacks? I crushed
one of these before the episode, feeling great. I basically
eat like a five year old because I just eat
whatever my kid eats when I'm out the door. And
(00:52):
as you can see, not at the house today. Is
this an acceptable adult snack?
Speaker 2 (00:59):
I don't miss.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
Yes, I don't.
Speaker 3 (01:00):
I don't mess with encrust but my wife likes them.
Who we're on vacations, she always has them. Uh. But no,
I can't say. I don't think I've ever had one. Yeah,
I've never had an uncrustables like peanut butter and jelly.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
Right, it's literally a peanut butter and jelly. I don't
eat them because I'm way too like holistic, healthy hippie
stuff when I'm not like filming for a restaurant. But
if they're good enough for the NFL, they're good enough
for the Favorites podcast.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
Is there any Is it just peanut butter.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
And jelly, strawberry and I think they have a cinnamon
sugar one.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
Yeah, they are starting to add a bunch. They got
a honeywell jella. I think so there's some uh, there's
some different options out there. But yeah. The thing is
is that you have you do have to layer in
some patience because it stays in the freezer and then
you have to It's not like you pop it in
the microwave. You have to wait until that thing falls out.
(01:57):
David Paint, our producer, says, butter it and fry it you.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
Oh my god, Eric Ryot, that sounds so good, David, Wow, genius.
I don't eat those things. But next time I go
to Costco, I might buy the like no sugar added,
like for like the gluten free weird kids. I might try,
hey do having my Costco.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
No, we had no show on Sunday night, we had
a lot to bemoan a lot to celebrate. Would have
been kind of all over the place, but you two
had eventful weekend. So Kendra, catch me up before we
get into the nitty gritty.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
I came home this weekend for the Jaguars game. I
told you guys they were gonna lose. I knew that
that's exactly the way that game was going to go.
It was such a nice day though, and I ate
sadness tailgate hot dogs, So I guess it was a
fine weekend. I just that went exactly how I thought
it would. But it was fine. I was glad to
be home, took my mom to dinner. It's all good.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
Stuck you what do I you? You had a big
baby shower.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
Yeah, it was a complete degenerate weekend. I'd family and
friends in town. And because our baby showers are just
a party at the bar.
Speaker 4 (03:05):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (03:06):
I'm always bar for nfl uh from noon until close,
but Saturday people come in. So I went out Saturday
and then Sunday, so it was.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
You you can definitely hear it in the.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
Town well, and then also the last two nights and
I have to catch up on everything that happened. And
so I also haven't slept the last two nights after that,
so uh, well that's a lot I should I did.
I did sleep Sunday night, but I didn't sleep last night.
So yeah, it was definitely hurt my wing.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
But you need a ginger ale and a til at all.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
How many times I.
Speaker 3 (03:48):
Don't get I don't get bad hangovers, especially.
Speaker 1 (03:51):
Because you don't sleep. You can't have a hangover unless
you fall asleep.
Speaker 3 (03:54):
But like I've always always been good about that, like
my everyone else in my family, like my brother will
when if he drinks, will be down for like three days,
but I don't do it. Yeah, so I'm actually good
on that front. But obviously it gets uh gets harder
with age.
Speaker 1 (04:13):
But you have a trick, a trick for us hangover types.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
I do just I tak a town all. You took
a town all before you go to sleep. I don't
even know if it's is that that's not maybe not
medical advice or you're not supposed.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
To do that.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
But but the main thing is you mixing waters. I
always tell people mixing water like as a joke, but
I actually do mix in some waters. And yeah, and
the other thing is I always tell people this that
like people will always wake up wouldn't have a hangover. Though,
this is just a it's a natural reaction, natural reaction
(04:55):
in your body to have anxiety. But I always try
to tell people, like, no one is thinking about you,
no one is thinking about what you said or did.
And try to think about ten years ago when you
drank and you were like, oh my god, I'm horrified,
but you don't even remember it. Try to do it
about a year ago. So if anyone ever has like those,
(05:15):
just calm down. It goes away. It's just a natural reaction.
But yeah, eat a breakfast in the morning. I mean,
it's just the most generic advice. But I make sure
that I do mix in some waters and then pop
an advill.
Speaker 1 (05:29):
And just dying over here. I didn't know we were
gonna get anxiety advice. I think that's even more important
than the hangover itself.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
I love Stucky. I ride from Stucky. I swear to God.
When we first like got paired together, I was like,
I don't know how I'm gonna feel about this. I
live and die for this. This is so funny.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
You didn't know you were gonna think, Wow.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
I'm just being honest. Yeah, I'm scared of men.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
Well hopefully, hopefully we don't scare your hero on this podcast.
Let's get thro our main dish. I want to start
by apologizing, I'm sorry. I am truly sorry. This is
my own version of a Tim Tebow's speech. I promise
that for the rest of this season, you will never
see another podcast host work as hard as I will
(06:16):
work to get these picks right. Saints plus three and
a half the only leg of our two Kings and
a Queen parlay to not come home. And it pains
me because otherwise I had a very good Sunday, but
that would have been the whipped cream and the cherry
on top, and and that's that's ultimately what we drive
towards throughout the week on this podcast. And and I
(06:38):
let us down, So hand up on that one.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
Well, as long as you continue to do some head
to head bets with me and pay them off, I'm
I'm okay with you.
Speaker 1 (06:50):
With Thankfully we did not have a bet on the
Patriots and the Saints because I would have lost that
head to head. Also, because Kendra was on the New
England Patriots last night, I was on Atlanta's I think
a few of us were on this podcast. Stucky's been
a big Falcons guy for the last couple of weeks.
The defense shows up big number one in d v
o A entering Monday night. I can't imagine that that
(07:12):
slipped after that performance, Stucky, this has been your squad
for the last few weeks. So are you I would
assume that at this point you're buying into what they're producing.
Speaker 3 (07:24):
Yeah, I mean, their defense is significantly improved, mainly because
some of the rook the rookies that they brought in, uh,
but they're so they're able to generate some pressure. But
one of the they're one of the heaviest blitz teams
in the NFL. And if you look back, I've talked
about this a bunch on this podcast and on the
Action Network podcast with Chris Raybond that you're never really
(07:48):
going to stop Josh Allen, But if you look back
historically at his numbers, the best way to contain him
and slow him down is he play zone and you
blitz a lot. And they blitzed fifty six percent of
the time last which is a super high rate. It's
the highest the ballot has seen in any game in
four years because you just can't. You saw it in
(08:09):
the first touchdown and then they learned quickly, like they
just sat back in his zone. They didn't bring any
extra pressure. And then if you give Valent time, he's
either going to find a running lane or he's gonna
find someone open. And but if you bring pressure, uh,
you can you can throw that offense off. So and
the Bills defense right now has major issues. I mean
that's safety. Their rundy is is bad, like it's it's
(08:33):
they're not playing that well. I mean, he looked back
the past couple of weeks that they were in a
dog play with the Dolphins at home in the Saints
they lose his touchdown plus favorites against the Patriots, So yeah,
they need to get healthy too. So Dubibie came at
the right time. But yeah, I'm super bullish on this
Falcons team. The offense is great, keep if their offensive
line is really it was one of the best in
(08:53):
the NFL. But they did lose Jake Matthews for that
second half, and then they already lost Caleb McGarry the
right tackle, So that could be something to keep in
mind with Jeon Robinson is argue, maybe the best back
in the NFL right now, and you know they have
the weapons on the outside, and it's with this defense.
(09:16):
Like before it was the defense can never It would
just let them down right. There was nothing the defense
could do because they couldn't generate any pressure. That's one
of the biggest differences this year. They actually can get
pressure and they're a little bit more talented on that
side of the ball. So if Penix continues to progress,
it's definitely a dangerous team.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
Falcons plus two and a half over on DraftKings against
the forty nine Ers Sunday Night Football, back to back
primetime games. We usually like to sell high on these
teams that everybody starts to buy into off of prime time.
The forty nine ers are so banged up right now.
They just lost Fred Warner. They're a tough team to
back at this point. Kendra, anything percolating as far as
(09:57):
that game goes or takeaways from Monday Night Foot, I'll
let you take that in whatever direction you want.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
My biggest takeaway from Monday Night Football is that I
can't do the doubleheaders anymore. I think I complain about
this every time that it happens it much. It's not
even that because when we're sitting here watching red Zone
and you know, you've got your couple different screens, you're
spreading the games out whatever. It's all fine. It's just
I want them to add more to the four o'clock slate,
(10:23):
or you know, take a couple games out of the
one o'clock, add more to the four o'clock, give us
the traditional primetime football. I've been watching way too many
screens throughout the day. By the time that rolls around,
when it's commercial time, I want to go get a
drink of water. I want to go take a pee,
I want to do whatever. By the time Monday night
rolls around, I don't want to have to be flipping
between the two have the multi view up. I want
to watch one game. That being said, the Falcons impressed me.
(10:46):
I think I'm more so just so shocked that the
Bills just sucked. I think that they're a bad team.
I think that they might be a bad team. It's
basically Josh Allen, a couple players on defense, and then
question mark of who is going to show up outside
of the tight ends every single week Bears commanders. I
think the Bears are kind of good. Commanders are pretty
(11:08):
much who I thought they would be. Expected a sophomore
slump from this team just in general. Knew that dan
Quinn probably would just have like a fall from grace,
But I just my biggest takeaway from Monday Night Football
is that I'm sick of the double headers and I
can't do it anymore.
Speaker 3 (11:21):
My problem with the doubleheaders is that, uh, like, there's
there's so many bad teams in the NFL that when
you do these double headers, you're it. It just makes
one of the Sunday windows so much worse. Like last
week at the four o'clock window was three games and
(11:43):
it was Bengals Bengals, Packers, Titans, Raiders, and then the
Niners Bucks. It was an awful window. Terrible this week
because you have I mean you're you have and Lock.
You throw a London game in there there too, which
is one of the better games, the weekend Rams Jags,
and then you have two the Sunday night games, the
dcent one Falcons Niners, and your Monday Night game is
(12:04):
Bucks Lines and Texan Seahawks. Like those are some of
the better games on the slate. So the one o'clock
slate this week is Raiders, Chiefs, Dolphins, Browns, Patriots, Titans, Panthers, Jets, Saints, Bears,
and Eagles Vikings. Like Eagles Vikings is the only the
(12:25):
only teams that are above five hundred that are playing
each other. And uh, I don't know. I mean, like
watching this Eagles offense and if it's J. J. McCarthy
or Carson Wentz, it's not like that's the must see TV. So,
like you have these windows now Sundays that are getting
that are just a little worse than they maybe should
be because we're agreed to the NFL and they meet,
(12:46):
they want their their two Monday night games. So that's that. Like,
that's my biggest beef with it too, is that you
were losing like a good game or two on on
Sunday at one or four.
Speaker 1 (12:57):
I think it's compounded by the fact that you have
a London game as well, so the Witch when you
have double I think they need. That's probably the move
that should be made is pick one, either have the
Sunday morning game and then one Monday night game or
two Monday night games, no early Sunday game.
Speaker 3 (13:14):
I think myself, right, it's not like Week one one,
where I get I get it if you want to
do a week one, but it is what it is.
There's lines and we will try to bet on them
and find winners. But yeah, it was a good weekend
betting for me. But who cares. We're on to Week seven.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
Amen to that. Baker Mayfield now emerging as a good
MVP a bet plus four fifty. He's still third shortest
odds in the market thirty three to one though at
the beginning of the year, so you've missed that window entirely, Kendra,
Is he your MVP right now?
Speaker 2 (13:48):
I feel like yeah, I mean it's hard to argue
against him. They've had a lot of injuries and they
just seem to keep finding ways to get it done.
I think with the status of a booger right now,
could potentially mess up this offense, but they have tape
on him now, so like that doesn't even really matter
to me that much. As far as just what we've
(14:09):
seen so far this season, I don't really know how
you argue against the odds, So yeah, yeah, I guess.
Speaker 4 (14:15):
So.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Yeah, Jamie Ardall was all over it. She was all
over Baker Mayfield to start the season, So kudos to.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
Her stuck here? Are you surprised that he's still behind
Alan and Mahomes? That was as of yesterday. I would
actually assume I'm going to check the most up the
date odds right now as we speak, but he still is.
He's still behind Mahomes and Allen. I don't quite get
that with how he's performed.
Speaker 3 (14:41):
Yeah, I mean I think that he's If the season
ended today, he would win it. He would be my MVP.
I mean, think about all the game, the clutch moments
he's had too, all the final minute drives. He's pushing
the ball down the field and doing it with success.
And then consider all the injuries at the offense is too,
like the offensive line, all the receivers now, Bucky Irving,
(15:05):
and he's still continuing to play at a super high
level now. And the good thing is that the defense
isn't great, which means like if the Bucks are gonna
keep winning, they're gonna have to keep putting up points,
which means he's gonna keep putting up numbers. I could see.
I could see the case for Mahomes though. I mean
that offense the last two weeks has looked really good.
(15:26):
You're gonna get Rashie Rice back this week, and like
he's throwing the ball down field again. Like his numbers,
his advanced metrics is a dot. Everything looks like it's
like twenty twenty two again. And now you're gonna get
Now you're gonna have a healthy set of weapons. And
the Chiefs I think are probably gonna get hot here
(15:49):
with their with their offense. I still think the defense
has some holes. So like Mahomes is gonna have to
put up some numbers, and like there were there have
been seasons where you could argue, like Mahomes is the
MVP of the league, right, and but he wasn't gonna
win it because just you would have either lamar around
putting up silly numbers. So if he just has a
(16:13):
really good year and then Baker falls off a little bit,
like there's you've got to remember this is like a
human award, right, Like it's not like just here's the
stats and here's what has to happen. There's a lot
of it is name recognition, but there's you know, there
might just be like, hey, let's get Mahomes his third
(16:34):
MVP if he has a really good year, because I
think he's what he's won in twenty eighteen and then
twenty twenty two, So that's probably the other.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
Name about Daniel Jones. Like, weirdly enough, if it wasn't Baker,
I would put Daniel Jones above Allen and Mahomes right now.
Speaker 1 (16:56):
Peronly issue with Daniel Jones. But I think I'll try.
Speaker 3 (16:59):
To what you said. I'm kidding.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
Yeah, I think I'd give it to Jonathan Taylor ahead
of Daniel Jones. That's my problem with DJ.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
Yeah, we're back by the way, Bijon should be in
the conversation at least like he's not going to win
it as.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
A uh can't sustain it though I don't think yeah,
but like.
Speaker 3 (17:19):
He's as of right now, I'm saying he should at
least be mentioned, like I mean he's two and thirty
eight scrimmage yards, yes, say the last game that he played,
I think he had two hundred and something.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
Like Uh, Rico dowdellco Daddle. Yeah, conversation, we're Rico Donald
Truther podcast.
Speaker 1 (17:38):
I do want to get to the slate. We've got
our plant the Flag game. I want to do a
Thursday night pick as well, since by Thursday's episode some
of that information can be outdated, so we want to
get something on the card early for that. But before
we move on from the headlines, the main dish, Briank
Callahan is out as the head coach of the Tennessee Titans. Stucky,
(17:58):
you were addicted to this team, linelast year they let
you down time and again, your hands off. I believe
you even went into therapy for this. Are the Titans
now biddable?
Speaker 3 (18:09):
Possibly? I mean they're still really bad, but I mean
callaham was so bad that he would cost them multiple
times a game that and I think that was part
of the reason why the market could never catch up
to how bad Tennessee was. Their offensive line is now
healthy at least, but Calvin Ridley has now banged up
(18:30):
their defense as a couple of injuries on the edge.
So yeah, I mean they're a little bit more intriguing,
but it's still not a great team. But I uh, yeah,
they've been in bet jail. They're my one bet jail
team for the past couple of weeks.
Speaker 2 (18:48):
One week stuck, he wasn't on them, he shot on
me and I took the Titans and they Cardinals.
Speaker 3 (18:54):
Yes, but they were also they should have been now
twenty eight six in that game, so I wasn't too
upset that I didn't have them. I didn't have them
last week against the Raiders, so yeah, I might. I'm
a little more intrigued by them, is what I'll say
than I was before, because Callahan was, I mean, like
four and twenty against the spread, whatever it was is
beyond It's incomprehensible that you could be that in an
(19:19):
NFL market. So yeah, a little bit more intriguing, but
not a team. I'm like running, like knocking, knocking, deb
through doors to get my money down on.
Speaker 2 (19:30):
But we doubted you, We doubted you, but I.
Speaker 1 (19:34):
Thought you'd be all the way back in kender Do
you want to say, Kendrick, do you want to save
your take on this for plant plant the flag? Or
do you want to let it fly now?
Speaker 2 (19:42):
No, we can save it, okay.
Speaker 1 (19:44):
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(20:06):
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your bet wins plus three months of NBA League pass,
the crown is yours. Before we get to Thursday Night football, Stucky,
give us a Tuesday night bet in college football so
that we can keep the good fortune rolling. But I
want you to explain it to us in NFL terms
(20:26):
that we can understand.
Speaker 3 (20:30):
FIU plus ten against Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky is sort
of like the Bucks. I guess they have a bunch
of really close wins this year against some bad teams
that also had injuries. I mean, this is a team
(20:53):
and some misleading finals. Like they've returned it onside kick
at the end of the game against Nevada, but they
were losing in the fourth quarter of that game. They
were losing in the fourth quarter against Missouri State. It
was not a very good team and lost their star
quarterback in the second half. So this team has just
been very very fortunate. Good offense, bad defense, and FIU
that is coming off a blowout law they look horrendous
(21:15):
at the UK company. If that's seventeen days off new staff,
I think that's beneficial to clean some things up. But
I just don't this Western talking team is. I don't
trust them to win by significant margin, so I think
it's a good time to fade them. So I'm taking
FIU and Keon Jenkins, who was their quarterback. So it's
(21:36):
as if like the Bucks would be, you know, ten
point favorites over.
Speaker 1 (21:45):
Kind of like when they played the Jets.
Speaker 3 (21:46):
Maybe, yeah, similar to that's covered well.
Speaker 1 (21:50):
If you're wondering out there, how can he how can
Stucky operate in that sleep? But why doesn't this guy
lay his head on his pillow at night? That explanation
is exactly why doesn't happen because he knows such things. Also,
Pitbull basically owns FIU for what it's worth. Soon Yeah,
Steelers Bengals. Steelers favor by five and a half on
(22:11):
Thursday night, totals sitting at forty two and a half.
The Steelers have won and covered three straight. The Bengals
covered on the road, much to my chagrin against Green Bay,
but they still have a negative eighty point differential. That's
number one or number thirty two. Rather in the NFL.
Flacco has made their offense slightly better, But is it
(22:33):
enough to get you to the window? Stucky where you
at on Thursday night?
Speaker 3 (22:38):
Maybe? I mean, my numbers say to play Cincy, so
I might get down there. I might get there. Small.
I generally hate Thursday night football, so don't I usually
don't bet it big Cherry Hendrickson that got banged up,
and like he is the only good defender on Cincinnati,
so that's noteworthy. We're doing this before any injury reports.
(23:01):
But Pittsburgh, I mean, Pittsburgh is a team that I
am looking to fade, like they've just coming up in
the next Maybe it's this week, maybe it's the next
couple of weeks. Because and the Steelers do this every year.
They get off to a hot start, then they fade
at some point. And this year, like they beat the
Jets Week one, the winless Jets, they should have lost
that game. Then you know, they lost by two touchdowns
at home to the Steelers. They did win in New England,
(23:23):
but New England had five turnovers. New England should have
won that game. And then they beat the Vikings and
Carson Wentz in London, by three, and then they beat
Dylan Gabriel in a horrendous spot last week, like right,
they were coming off of a bye, it was a
rookie quarterback on the road after being overseas, and then
Brown's had a ton of injuries during that game. So yeah,
(23:43):
I think the Steelers a very fraudulent four and one,
although their defense is getting healthier, but still like now
they're length five and a half on the road again
since he maybe Flacco now has a little bit more
timeouts a short week, which is in an ideal, But
to remember, this is a guy that came in to
the offense and to the whole operation, like in the
(24:05):
middle of the week last week, like the whole new
playbook called new Players. So I think as time goes on,
it's gonna get a little more comfortable. He's still not great,
he's still you know, old, but it's better than what
Jake Browning was putting out there. So yeah, from a
numbers perspective, this is a since he played for me
a couple of injuries. I want to watch probably have
(24:27):
it small, but I would like to get a six
at this I don't know if we'll get it, though.
Speaker 1 (24:32):
Kendrew you in on it.
Speaker 2 (24:34):
I am probably on the under in this game, if anything,
divisional game. I think both the Steelers have once eat
like you said, fraudulent four and one fraudulent for in one.
I don't believe in that offense as much as they
showed a like decent amount of spark earlier or two
days ago on Sunday. I just I can't get behind
(24:57):
them being like a juggernaut of an offense. The ben
still lots of questions. I think once Joe Flacco probably
has the opportunity to learn the playbook more, it might
look a little bit better. More so just that it's
a divisional game to me, and you have two seventy
five year old men playing quarterback, so love those love.
Speaker 3 (25:14):
The that fields. The oldest quarterback matchup.
Speaker 1 (25:17):
It could be.
Speaker 2 (25:17):
Gotta be, yeah, gotta be.
Speaker 3 (25:19):
It could have been a brady.
Speaker 1 (25:22):
On on the Flacco front. I mean, how many times
in his career now has he played against the Steelers,
you know, I mean he's played for every team in
the AFC North except for Pittsburgh, so he's definitely accustomed
to this matchup as far as the short week goes.
And still not having a lot of time to really
acclimate himself. This is about the best matchup he could
ask for in terms of familiarity.
Speaker 2 (25:45):
Yeah, that's a good point. I didn't think about that,
but yeah.
Speaker 3 (25:49):
That works both ways though too right, I mean Tom
because Tomlin has been there forever. Oh, Brady was forty
three and Breeze it was forty two and twenty one.
That's the oldest ever.
Speaker 1 (26:01):
Okay, so I am. I'm not betting this personally, and
I'm pretty much with you guys as far as the
Steelers are frauds, but I placed a bet on them
to win the Super Bowl this morning. Hear me out.
Hear me out. Oh, it's not like I actually think
they're going to win the Super Bowl. I just think
the number is crazy. The offense doesn't look particularly good.
(26:21):
The defense is an elite, but between Rogers TJ. Watt,
the mediocre play that we're seeing out of the AFC.
If they're in a critical situation late in the playoffs
against these against like the Jaguars, if they meet them
in Jaguars.
Speaker 2 (26:37):
The Steelers don't even the Jaguars podcast. The Jaguars own
the Steelers and the Colts. Colts haven't won in Jacksonville
in over a decade, missed me with the.
Speaker 1 (26:48):
Steelers are thirty. The Steelers are thirty to one to
win the Super Bowl. They're the two seed in the AFC.
They might have a first round by they're going to be.
Speaker 2 (26:56):
Kicking a knife out of my back that you just
stabbed in and did pretending to be a fake Jags
fan this whole time. Not miss me. Uh uh ain't
a way.
Speaker 3 (27:06):
The funny thing is, yesterday I placed a Super Bowl
bet on the Ravens, so uh hear me, I said
I was gonna do it one in five. They're gonna
get healthier after the buye their schedule now they had
one of the hardest schedules so far. Now they're gonna
have one of the easiest schedules. To Steelers, schedule gets
a lot more difficult. And this is basically like can
the Ravens chase down Pittsburgh they play him twice in December?
(27:30):
Their schedule gets easier, Steelers it gets more difficult, Like
Lamar's gonna be back after the buy their defense, you
get healthier. I'm trusting in that organization to not like
sign or trade for someone like can they go get
just throwing a name out of here, But like, could
they go get like a Dexter Lawrence or someone like that,
like an impactful See de Way like someone like that,
(27:51):
because without Montabuk they need it. But yeah, I think
this is just the bottoming of the market on Baltimore.
I'm just trying to time it. And like, so if
they would they come back and win the division, you know,
then they're going to be in like six seven, nice ticket,
So yeah.
Speaker 1 (28:06):
I would. I think that maybe that's just that's the
general advice here is like just find if you think
that there's value on someone in the AFC, just buy them.
I mean, think about it, whether it's the Ravens working
their way back up into the mix, or the Steelers
ticket that I purchased this morning. The playoffs right now,
the Colts is the one seed, the Chargers are the
three seed, the Patriots, the Bills, the Jags, the Broncos.
(28:28):
Which one of those teams can you not beat? Especially
if you have home field advantage in the playoffs?
Speaker 3 (28:34):
The jarl beatable is the Jags podcast you keep forgetting.
Speaker 2 (28:37):
That Privates, I can't believe. I cannot believe you have
done this to us.
Speaker 1 (28:45):
Hey, let's you know what, we can always add to
the ticket. Okay, we can.
Speaker 2 (28:48):
We can disappointed.
Speaker 3 (28:50):
I will not be. I will not be investing in
the Steelers in the Bowl, but.
Speaker 1 (28:53):
I Jaguars fourteen to one to get the one seed.
That's also possible. All right, time to plant your flag
present by draft Kings. Shut up, I'm.
Speaker 3 (29:05):
Trying to plant my flag here.
Speaker 1 (29:06):
Okay, you're really planning your flag in that thick Let's
go around the horn here, Hendra, We'll start with you.
Where are you planning that flag? This week?
Speaker 2 (29:16):
I am gonna go with the Titans on the seven
and a half. I have to. Okay, they just fired
their coach. I told you guys a couple weeks ago
that whoever the first team to fire their coach was,
I would get on them the following week. There's always
an amount of get up. It's a fake revenge game
for vrabel Way, why is that fake? Because I with
(29:40):
you just picked against the Patriots. You just talked about
how much you didn't like them last week.
Speaker 1 (29:47):
This this, I mean honestly, had I even thought about
the fact that they were heading into Tennessee the following week,
I would have probably doubled down on the Saints, which
would have been a horrendous decision in hindsight. But this,
this is one variable's gonna have guys ready to go.
Speaker 2 (30:01):
Yeah, but it's over a touchdown in the NFL, the
week after a team fired their coach, it's got to
be a.
Speaker 3 (30:07):
Third trade road game, third trade road game two for
New England, which is noteworthy. Yeah, it over a touchdown.
I couldn't it's New England. I mean, it's Tennessee or nothing.
Speaker 1 (30:17):
For me.
Speaker 3 (30:18):
This is a tough week so far. I haven't even
bet anything yet. There's a lot of injuries to monitor.
I'm still going through every game, but I'll plan my
flag on Minnesota. I mean, this Eagles team as a
road favored or I don't even know the quarterbacks gonna
be for the Vikings this week, but they still haven't
announced if it's going to be McCarthy or Wentz. But
they should be healthier coming out of the by like
they had a ton of injuries, like Bankinkle should be
(30:39):
back their offensive line and a ton of injuries. They
should be much healthier there. And this Eagles team is
just a mess right now. Like I there were laying
points in Minnesota against Flores with a banged up offensive line,
an offense that looks completely broken. I mean they need
to get to a bye week and figure some things out.
And then defensively, Jalen Carter is banged up, Quinnon Mitchell
(31:01):
got hurt, the rest of that unit is not playing
very well. Uh, Minnesota off the by great staff, one
of the best home field advantages in the NFL. Yeah,
I'll play my flag on the Vikings.
Speaker 1 (31:14):
I did already bt the Vikings at plus two and
a half, so I'm with you on that. I don't
think are we at the point now where Carson Wentz
JJ McCarthy The line doesn't move an inch depending on
who the quarter is.
Speaker 2 (31:26):
I think Carson Wentz is better. I still stand on that,
and that's saying a lot.
Speaker 3 (31:30):
I think Gurds Wentz is better right now. There's a
wider I mean, there's more variance with McCarthy. It's like
we think there's a lot we just still don't know.
But like, yeah, I think Once is better than McCarthy
right now. There's a wider range of outcomes that McCarthy
plays like.
Speaker 1 (31:43):
But in terms of spread value, I don't think the
and I don't think based on.
Speaker 3 (31:47):
The marginal, Like it's not like this would go to
three or anything. So yeah, I think it's very marginal.
Maybe there's a group or someone with a lot of
market influence money who does have a really strong opinion
on that, But for me, I mean it's like a
half point difference.
Speaker 1 (32:04):
So would you advise waiting for the three though for
people that are listening to this, or do you think
it never gets there?
Speaker 3 (32:13):
I don't think it would ever get the three, So.
Speaker 1 (32:17):
I tend to agree Raiders plus eleven and a half,
planting my flag on that one. I was surprised to
see this touch twelve yesterday. It's back down to eleven
and a half. The Raiders always play the Chiefs well.
It was nice to see some signs of life from
Gino in company, even if it was against the horrendous
Tennessee Titans. But this is more of a fate of
(32:39):
Kansas City selling high on a team that now everybody's
bought back in on major letdown spot against the division
rival over ten points. Raiders auto play. I mean, we
brought this up last week that this was probably going
to be a play on the Raiders today. Any pushback
from anybody, I mean, you're going.
Speaker 3 (32:58):
To get Rice back, so they ken the I mean,
the Raiders are going to play their zones, are going
to try to prevent explosives. They might be able to
run the ball a little bit because the Chiefs Rundy
has not been great. But but man, that I mean,
I would have loved I would love if Bowers played,
And I don't know if he's he's gonna play, so
(33:19):
that hurts, and you don't have your left tackle, which
still really hurts. They're offensiven like even against Tennessee they
only average but like four yards per play last week.
But yeah, I would love it if the Bowers played.
But I don't think he will because if you look
at the Raiders schedule, I mean, they're in desperation, so
maybe he will, but they're they're two and four because
they have the Chiefs then a bye week, so like,
(33:40):
if you're looking at it from the franchise's perspective, you
don't play him this week, you have an eck. You
basically have three more weeks for him to get healthy.
So that's the only thing that I would note. But
I think your logic makes sense.
Speaker 1 (33:54):
In his sound, I almost fell off my chair just
now appreciate you guys coming back around on me after
all that jag stuff. All right, for yourself, this is
your last chance, Kendrick before before I officially tag this
with our DraftKings sponsorship. Are you sure you want the Titans?
Speaker 2 (34:13):
Are you bullying me right now?
Speaker 3 (34:16):
Raiders? You can't bully about the Titans.
Speaker 1 (34:18):
Yeah, I do love, I do loa, I will say
always love the fired the coach angle, so you do
have that the worst.
Speaker 3 (34:28):
Coach of all time you fired?
Speaker 2 (34:30):
So yeah, a monkey could call plays better than him.
Speaker 1 (34:36):
Uh So, here are your Plant the Flag Games presented
by DraftKings. Kendra is on the Titans plus seven Stucky
as the Vikings plus two and a half, and I
am on the Las Vegas Raiders plus eleven and a half.
The dogs are barking this week. Now time for our
main event. No betting week can start without it. It's
the primer courtesy of the Voice of God, Evan Abrams. Evan,
(34:59):
Welcome to the show. When is the last time you
had an uncrustable.
Speaker 4 (35:04):
That's actually a really good question. It's been a few years.
They're very tasty. They are good road trips snacks.
Speaker 3 (35:09):
I will give you that.
Speaker 4 (35:10):
So that's probably where I stand there. The deep fry
of a of an uncrustable feels like a very very
dangerous game.
Speaker 1 (35:17):
So I don't know if I'll be playing that boo.
Speaker 4 (35:21):
That seems very Maybe Halloween, I don't know, maybe we
could do something stupid.
Speaker 1 (35:25):
I'm sure that if if you were to go to
the Texas State Fair for ou Texas, I'm sure that
they've done that already. They were frying mayonnaise this past weekend.
Speaker 4 (35:34):
Snickers fried Snickers is a good idea.
Speaker 1 (35:37):
Before.
Speaker 4 (35:40):
Yeah, I've heard that.
Speaker 3 (35:42):
It's amazing. Actually, I'm serious. It's like I didn't know
what to expect, but it was like the best thing
I've ever tasted in my life.
Speaker 2 (35:51):
Really, how does it not melt?
Speaker 1 (35:55):
That's a good question.
Speaker 3 (35:56):
I don't know. I don't know the science behind it.
Speaker 4 (35:58):
But encapsulated in the fried bread, Kendra, that's obviously how
do you not know that?
Speaker 2 (36:05):
God, idiot?
Speaker 4 (36:07):
Have you had fried butter Evan, I've tasted it? Yes,
it's good, right, it's absurd.
Speaker 3 (36:12):
Yeah, yeah, like you feel you don't want to be
eating it because it's like I'm just you're basically eating
a like a worst version of stick of butter. Because
then it's just fry.
Speaker 2 (36:22):
But it's it's diabetes.
Speaker 3 (36:26):
Man, it's hard to sounding.
Speaker 1 (36:27):
That sounds like a heart attack. But I did you
like the road dog angle of the young crustable? All right, Evan,
what are we looking at? What are the trends we
need to be aware of.
Speaker 4 (36:35):
I'll give you two so off the bat, that kind
of back up what you guys are talking about prior
to this. So the Mahomes angle, obviously they're laying eleven
and a half this week as a favorite above a
touchdown since twenty twenty, the man is thirty six and
two straight up, but thirteen twenty four and one.
Speaker 3 (36:51):
Against the spread as that big of a favorite.
Speaker 4 (36:54):
The thirty six and two best in the NFL, the
thirteen twenty four and one worse than the NFL, and
that's something we've seen recently. The best note is this
above a touchdown favorite since twenty twenty, he's thirty and
oh straight up versus anyone not name the Raiders.
Speaker 1 (37:09):
So both his.
Speaker 3 (37:10):
Losses Christmas Day one of them.
Speaker 4 (37:13):
Yeah, Christmas Day, and you know everyone's opening presents and
the Chiefs can't get to fourteen points.
Speaker 2 (37:18):
We alle at.
Speaker 4 (37:20):
The other fired angle I'll give you this one, so
I think more impactfully, I looked last decade, just since
twenty sixteen, most recently so Callahan twenty third coach fired
prior to twenty two.
Speaker 3 (37:33):
Teams listen just ten and.
Speaker 4 (37:35):
Twelve straight up, eleven to eleven ats next game, even home,
it's pretty much even ground. I think the one angle
you would look at is the team that fires the
head coach. Twenty eight percent straight up, thirty six percent
against the spread before the firing, goes up about seven
per six six seven percent straight up, but twelve percent
(37:58):
against the spread after the firing. So the teams end
up do finding themselves a bump in whatever stretch left
of the year they have the game after here or there.
Sample size a little bit small, I will say this,
the line of seven on the game decently large for
after a coach getting fired, especially at home. Those numbers
(38:19):
kind of point towards Tennessee getting the cover. But either way,
the bump it does exist.
Speaker 1 (38:26):
Interesting, So do you think that that's just been overrated
over the years? Has that become a pregame show narrative
more than an actual betting angle.
Speaker 4 (38:35):
I think the cause of the bump for the rest
of this season is something noteworthy because you had to
be bad enough to get fired in the first place,
and usually that impacts straight up more than against the spread.
But that number ats prior of thirty six percent, that's terrible.
So to get back to fifty percent after the firing
(38:57):
of forty eight percent, that twelve percent delta is noteworthy.
Like the team gets better.
Speaker 1 (39:02):
Yeah, so you.
Speaker 3 (39:04):
Number one, you're you're probably bottomed out, so like there's
nowhere to go about ut. Generally speaking, if you're a
coach that got fired, you're more than likely not a
bad coach, and that's the case with Callahan. And then
also there's just hey, you bring in a new regime.
You are a bad team, right, you were. You had
to have a really really bad record to get fired,
So that means that you were probably doing some things
(39:25):
that were not ideal for your team schematically or using
your players. Right, So you get a new voice in there,
they might listen to the players. They're going to try
some new things. That's more applicable to the first game
with a new coach. Right, So there might be some surprises,
right that the Patriots aren't expecting that you might you
(39:47):
that the Tennessee might try and then will break tendencies
of what they've been doing. But I think there's there's
definitely a lot behind why a team would improve the
rest of the way the.
Speaker 1 (39:59):
Law is sound for why anyone and Kendra is wanting
to back the Tennessee Titans. My issue with it is
that is the other side of the angle, and I'm
curious if there are any numbers behind this, Evan, because
you have Mike Rabel coming into town who was fired
by the Tennessee Titans. So if we're talking about aggressiveness
(40:20):
late in the game to prove a point against a
bad team, Mike Rabel's probably gonna do that. This is
a throat on the jugular kind of game, I would think,
So I'm curious if there's anything on coaches that are
facing the team that previously fired them.
Speaker 3 (40:37):
Yeah, I just think you'd be small enough sample.
Speaker 4 (40:39):
I'm literally staring at all of the coaches who have
faced the new coach after the fired I just don't,
you know, to cross reference to see if the team
had faced them. I haven't done that yet, But to
my standpoint, I believe that the bump is there no
matter the circumstance everything else a little noisy. You could
(41:01):
believe the storylines you want with Rabel and I think
I agree with you, like there's no reason for him
not to stomp on Tennessee's neck if he.
Speaker 3 (41:09):
Has the ability to.
Speaker 4 (41:11):
But as a whole, I think the line's a little inflated.
I also think it's probably just gonna go up sixty
four percent of tickets seventy four percent of the money
on New England. I think as we get closer to
the weekend, it could get to stuck.
Speaker 3 (41:23):
What do you think seven and a half? Is it possible?
Speaker 1 (41:27):
Like?
Speaker 2 (41:27):
Do we keep going there's one already here?
Speaker 4 (41:31):
Yeah, Okay, there you go.
Speaker 3 (41:33):
I think it'll close seven, but I think they will
probably season seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (41:38):
What about so Dan Campbell Monday Night Football against the Bucks.
That's a really interesting game. I think that's a really
tough one to peg from a betting perspective because the Lions,
we know, have just been so good against the spread,
yet their secondary. We'll see what happens this week. But
so banged up against Kansas City and that was such
a casey spot on Sunday Night Football. Now they play
(41:59):
the Buck. The Bucks are without everyone on offense and
they've been awesome. So Dan Campbell off a loss, though,
I would think is probably the primer angle to follow here.
What do we have on that if anything?
Speaker 3 (42:14):
Yeah, very simple.
Speaker 4 (42:16):
I mean Goff and Campbell fifteen twelve and one straight up,
twenty and eight against spread afful loss. But what everyone
will tout they've covered in won eleven straight dating back
to the November of twenty twenty two. So basically, they
come off a loss, they mow people over. And I
think the angle that is more of an outlier when
(42:38):
it comes to this is just the fact that when
GoF is a favorite, he's pretty much just crush competition,
especially when it comes to night games and things.
Speaker 3 (42:45):
Of that nature. They just they're ridiculous.
Speaker 4 (42:48):
During the regular season, GoF is nineteen and three straight
up as a favorite in night games, nine to zero
with the Lions. He's made thirty nine starts at night
in prime time twenty one and five straight up as
a favorite, So and we saw it was interesting is
four and nine as an underdog. So, uh, the role
we saw against Kansas City kind of followed what he's
done previously.
Speaker 1 (43:08):
But in this.
Speaker 4 (43:09):
Spot, especially awful loss, everyone just going to make the
assumptions on Detroit series in the line. Actually, wow, I
literally just looked at this line had gone down to
four and a half. I didn't see that it was
five and a half last night.
Speaker 3 (43:21):
There's so many injuries to keep track of. There. You
have all the Lions corners. There're gonna be a little
bit corners again. Then you have this the safety that
might get suspended or he is suspended, but he's appealed. Yeah,
but he's going to appeal it, so I don't know
if that's changed. Taylor Decker's hurt too, And then the Bucks.
You have all the offensive line injuries.
Speaker 1 (43:44):
Hockey.
Speaker 3 (43:44):
Every's not gonna play, Godwin's not gonna play. Buka mri
Evans could be back. But that's a lot like you.
That's a tough game to crack. But there might be
some market movement throughout the week based on the injuries
because the Lions defense is a ton and their left
tackle and the box offense is decimated throughout. But maybe
(44:04):
just Baker Anfield, it doesn't even matter and he's gonna
find guys no matter what against a just completely depleted secondary.
But there's a lot of moving pieces with that game.
Speaker 1 (44:16):
I'm gonna want to be on the lines, but I
think to Stucky's point, waiting is probably the best option here.
That right there is why we save Evan for the
end of the episode. That was fantastic. That'll do it
for today's episode special thanks to our producers David Paine
and Gifford Gold. The Favorites will return on Thursday right
here on the Action Network you Catube page, when we
detail our week's seven best bets, unveiling this week's two
(44:37):
Kings and a Queen parlay Redemption ahead, ladies and gentlemen,
We'll see you next year on the Favorites presented by
DraftKings were out.
Speaker 2 (44:54):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
We are an Action Network podcast. Your Favorites Trio back
at it Group Hug, we missed each other. I'm Brandon Kravitz,
joined by the one and Only Stucky and Kendrim Middleton.
On today's episode, We've got our plant the Flag game
for week seven, a breakdown of the top storylines. We
(00:30):
have a fired head coach in the NFL, and of
course the main event Evan Abrams and his Tuesday primer.
But before we get to the important stuff, guys, how
do we feel about uncrustables as adult snacks? I crushed
one of these before the episode, feeling great. I basically
eat like a five year old because I just eat
whatever my kid eats when I'm out the door. And
(00:52):
as you can see, not at the house today. Is
this an acceptable adult snack?
Speaker 2 (00:59):
I don't miss.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
Yes, I don't.
Speaker 3 (01:00):
I don't mess with encrust but my wife likes them.
Who we're on vacations, she always has them. Uh. But no,
I can't say. I don't think I've ever had one. Yeah,
I've never had an uncrustables like peanut butter and jelly.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
Right, it's literally a peanut butter and jelly. I don't
eat them because I'm way too like holistic, healthy hippie
stuff when I'm not like filming for a restaurant. But
if they're good enough for the NFL, they're good enough
for the Favorites podcast.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
Is there any Is it just peanut butter.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
And jelly, strawberry and I think they have a cinnamon
sugar one.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
Yeah, they are starting to add a bunch. They got
a honeywell jella. I think so there's some uh, there's
some different options out there. But yeah. The thing is
is that you have you do have to layer in
some patience because it stays in the freezer and then
you have to It's not like you pop it in
the microwave. You have to wait until that thing falls out.
(01:57):
David Paint, our producer, says, butter it and fry it you.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
Oh my god, Eric Ryot, that sounds so good, David, Wow, genius.
I don't eat those things. But next time I go
to Costco, I might buy the like no sugar added,
like for like the gluten free weird kids. I might try,
hey do having my Costco.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
No, we had no show on Sunday night, we had
a lot to bemoan a lot to celebrate. Would have
been kind of all over the place, but you two
had eventful weekend. So Kendra, catch me up before we
get into the nitty gritty.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
I came home this weekend for the Jaguars game. I
told you guys they were gonna lose. I knew that
that's exactly the way that game was going to go.
It was such a nice day though, and I ate
sadness tailgate hot dogs, So I guess it was a
fine weekend. I just that went exactly how I thought
it would. But it was fine. I was glad to
be home, took my mom to dinner. It's all good.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
Stuck you what do I you? You had a big
baby shower.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
Yeah, it was a complete degenerate weekend. I'd family and
friends in town. And because our baby showers are just
a party at the bar.
Speaker 4 (03:05):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (03:06):
I'm always bar for nfl uh from noon until close,
but Saturday people come in. So I went out Saturday
and then Sunday, so it was.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
You you can definitely hear it in the.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
Town well, and then also the last two nights and
I have to catch up on everything that happened. And
so I also haven't slept the last two nights after that,
so uh, well that's a lot I should I did.
I did sleep Sunday night, but I didn't sleep last night.
So yeah, it was definitely hurt my wing.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
But you need a ginger ale and a til at all.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
How many times I.
Speaker 3 (03:48):
Don't get I don't get bad hangovers, especially.
Speaker 1 (03:51):
Because you don't sleep. You can't have a hangover unless
you fall asleep.
Speaker 3 (03:54):
But like I've always always been good about that, like
my everyone else in my family, like my brother will
when if he drinks, will be down for like three days,
but I don't do it. Yeah, so I'm actually good
on that front. But obviously it gets uh gets harder
with age.
Speaker 1 (04:13):
But you have a trick, a trick for us hangover types.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
I do just I tak a town all. You took
a town all before you go to sleep. I don't
even know if it's is that that's not maybe not
medical advice or you're not supposed.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
To do that.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
But but the main thing is you mixing waters. I
always tell people mixing water like as a joke, but
I actually do mix in some waters. And yeah, and
the other thing is I always tell people this that
like people will always wake up wouldn't have a hangover. Though,
this is just a it's a natural reaction, natural reaction
(04:55):
in your body to have anxiety. But I always try
to tell people, like, no one is thinking about you,
no one is thinking about what you said or did.
And try to think about ten years ago when you
drank and you were like, oh my god, I'm horrified,
but you don't even remember it. Try to do it
about a year ago. So if anyone ever has like those,
(05:15):
just calm down. It goes away. It's just a natural reaction.
But yeah, eat a breakfast in the morning. I mean,
it's just the most generic advice. But I make sure
that I do mix in some waters and then pop
an advill.
Speaker 1 (05:29):
And just dying over here. I didn't know we were
gonna get anxiety advice. I think that's even more important
than the hangover itself.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
I love Stucky. I ride from Stucky. I swear to God.
When we first like got paired together, I was like,
I don't know how I'm gonna feel about this. I
live and die for this. This is so funny.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
You didn't know you were gonna think, Wow.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
I'm just being honest. Yeah, I'm scared of men.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
Well hopefully, hopefully we don't scare your hero on this podcast.
Let's get thro our main dish. I want to start
by apologizing, I'm sorry. I am truly sorry. This is
my own version of a Tim Tebow's speech. I promise
that for the rest of this season, you will never
see another podcast host work as hard as I will
(06:16):
work to get these picks right. Saints plus three and
a half the only leg of our two Kings and
a Queen parlay to not come home. And it pains
me because otherwise I had a very good Sunday, but
that would have been the whipped cream and the cherry
on top, and and that's that's ultimately what we drive
towards throughout the week on this podcast. And and I
(06:38):
let us down, So hand up on that one.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
Well, as long as you continue to do some head
to head bets with me and pay them off, I'm
I'm okay with you.
Speaker 1 (06:50):
With Thankfully we did not have a bet on the
Patriots and the Saints because I would have lost that
head to head. Also, because Kendra was on the New
England Patriots last night, I was on Atlanta's I think
a few of us were on this podcast. Stucky's been
a big Falcons guy for the last couple of weeks.
The defense shows up big number one in d v
o A entering Monday night. I can't imagine that that
(07:12):
slipped after that performance, Stucky, this has been your squad
for the last few weeks. So are you I would
assume that at this point you're buying into what they're producing.
Speaker 3 (07:24):
Yeah, I mean, their defense is significantly improved, mainly because
some of the rook the rookies that they brought in, uh,
but they're so they're able to generate some pressure. But
one of the they're one of the heaviest blitz teams
in the NFL. And if you look back, I've talked
about this a bunch on this podcast and on the
Action Network podcast with Chris Raybond that you're never really
(07:48):
going to stop Josh Allen, But if you look back
historically at his numbers, the best way to contain him
and slow him down is he play zone and you
blitz a lot. And they blitzed fifty six percent of
the time last which is a super high rate. It's
the highest the ballot has seen in any game in
four years because you just can't. You saw it in
(08:09):
the first touchdown and then they learned quickly, like they
just sat back in his zone. They didn't bring any
extra pressure. And then if you give Valent time, he's
either going to find a running lane or he's gonna
find someone open. And but if you bring pressure, uh,
you can you can throw that offense off. So and
the Bills defense right now has major issues. I mean
that's safety. Their rundy is is bad, like it's it's
(08:33):
they're not playing that well. I mean, he looked back
the past couple of weeks that they were in a
dog play with the Dolphins at home in the Saints
they lose his touchdown plus favorites against the Patriots, So yeah,
they need to get healthy too. So Dubibie came at
the right time. But yeah, I'm super bullish on this
Falcons team. The offense is great, keep if their offensive
line is really it was one of the best in
(08:53):
the NFL. But they did lose Jake Matthews for that
second half, and then they already lost Caleb McGarry the
right tackle, So that could be something to keep in
mind with Jeon Robinson is argue, maybe the best back
in the NFL right now, and you know they have
the weapons on the outside, and it's with this defense.
(09:16):
Like before it was the defense can never It would
just let them down right. There was nothing the defense
could do because they couldn't generate any pressure. That's one
of the biggest differences this year. They actually can get
pressure and they're a little bit more talented on that
side of the ball. So if Penix continues to progress,
it's definitely a dangerous team.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
Falcons plus two and a half over on DraftKings against
the forty nine Ers Sunday Night Football, back to back
primetime games. We usually like to sell high on these
teams that everybody starts to buy into off of prime time.
The forty nine ers are so banged up right now.
They just lost Fred Warner. They're a tough team to
back at this point. Kendra, anything percolating as far as
(09:57):
that game goes or takeaways from Monday Night Foot, I'll
let you take that in whatever direction you want.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
My biggest takeaway from Monday Night Football is that I
can't do the doubleheaders anymore. I think I complain about
this every time that it happens it much. It's not
even that because when we're sitting here watching red Zone
and you know, you've got your couple different screens, you're
spreading the games out whatever. It's all fine. It's just
I want them to add more to the four o'clock slate,
(10:23):
or you know, take a couple games out of the
one o'clock, add more to the four o'clock, give us
the traditional primetime football. I've been watching way too many
screens throughout the day. By the time that rolls around,
when it's commercial time, I want to go get a
drink of water. I want to go take a pee,
I want to do whatever. By the time Monday night
rolls around, I don't want to have to be flipping
between the two have the multi view up. I want
to watch one game. That being said, the Falcons impressed me.
(10:46):
I think I'm more so just so shocked that the
Bills just sucked. I think that they're a bad team.
I think that they might be a bad team. It's
basically Josh Allen, a couple players on defense, and then
question mark of who is going to show up outside
of the tight ends every single week Bears commanders. I
think the Bears are kind of good. Commanders are pretty
(11:08):
much who I thought they would be. Expected a sophomore
slump from this team just in general. Knew that dan
Quinn probably would just have like a fall from grace,
But I just my biggest takeaway from Monday Night Football
is that I'm sick of the double headers and I
can't do it anymore.
Speaker 3 (11:21):
My problem with the doubleheaders is that, uh, like, there's
there's so many bad teams in the NFL that when
you do these double headers, you're it. It just makes
one of the Sunday windows so much worse. Like last
week at the four o'clock window was three games and
(11:43):
it was Bengals Bengals, Packers, Titans, Raiders, and then the
Niners Bucks. It was an awful window. Terrible this week
because you have I mean you're you have and Lock.
You throw a London game in there there too, which
is one of the better games, the weekend Rams Jags,
and then you have two the Sunday night games, the
dcent one Falcons Niners, and your Monday Night game is
(12:04):
Bucks Lines and Texan Seahawks. Like those are some of
the better games on the slate. So the one o'clock
slate this week is Raiders, Chiefs, Dolphins, Browns, Patriots, Titans, Panthers, Jets, Saints, Bears,
and Eagles Vikings. Like Eagles Vikings is the only the
(12:25):
only teams that are above five hundred that are playing
each other. And uh, I don't know. I mean, like
watching this Eagles offense and if it's J. J. McCarthy
or Carson Wentz, it's not like that's the must see TV. So,
like you have these windows now Sundays that are getting
that are just a little worse than they maybe should
be because we're agreed to the NFL and they meet,
(12:46):
they want their their two Monday night games. So that's that. Like,
that's my biggest beef with it too, is that you
were losing like a good game or two on on
Sunday at one or four.
Speaker 1 (12:57):
I think it's compounded by the fact that you have
a London game as well, so the Witch when you
have double I think they need. That's probably the move
that should be made is pick one, either have the
Sunday morning game and then one Monday night game or
two Monday night games, no early Sunday game.
Speaker 3 (13:14):
I think myself, right, it's not like Week one one,
where I get I get it if you want to
do a week one, but it is what it is.
There's lines and we will try to bet on them
and find winners. But yeah, it was a good weekend
betting for me. But who cares. We're on to Week seven.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
Amen to that. Baker Mayfield now emerging as a good
MVP a bet plus four fifty. He's still third shortest
odds in the market thirty three to one though at
the beginning of the year, so you've missed that window entirely, Kendra,
Is he your MVP right now?
Speaker 2 (13:48):
I feel like yeah, I mean it's hard to argue
against him. They've had a lot of injuries and they
just seem to keep finding ways to get it done.
I think with the status of a booger right now,
could potentially mess up this offense, but they have tape
on him now, so like that doesn't even really matter
to me that much. As far as just what we've
(14:09):
seen so far this season, I don't really know how
you argue against the odds, So yeah, yeah, I guess.
Speaker 4 (14:15):
So.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Yeah, Jamie Ardall was all over it. She was all
over Baker Mayfield to start the season, So kudos to.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
Her stuck here? Are you surprised that he's still behind
Alan and Mahomes? That was as of yesterday. I would
actually assume I'm going to check the most up the
date odds right now as we speak, but he still is.
He's still behind Mahomes and Allen. I don't quite get
that with how he's performed.
Speaker 3 (14:41):
Yeah, I mean I think that he's If the season
ended today, he would win it. He would be my MVP.
I mean, think about all the game, the clutch moments
he's had too, all the final minute drives. He's pushing
the ball down the field and doing it with success.
And then consider all the injuries at the offense is too,
like the offensive line, all the receivers now, Bucky Irving,
(15:05):
and he's still continuing to play at a super high
level now. And the good thing is that the defense
isn't great, which means like if the Bucks are gonna
keep winning, they're gonna have to keep putting up points,
which means he's gonna keep putting up numbers. I could see.
I could see the case for Mahomes though. I mean
that offense the last two weeks has looked really good.
(15:26):
You're gonna get Rashie Rice back this week, and like
he's throwing the ball down field again. Like his numbers,
his advanced metrics is a dot. Everything looks like it's
like twenty twenty two again. And now you're gonna get
Now you're gonna have a healthy set of weapons. And
the Chiefs I think are probably gonna get hot here
(15:49):
with their with their offense. I still think the defense
has some holes. So like Mahomes is gonna have to
put up some numbers, and like there were there have
been seasons where you could argue, like Mahomes is the
MVP of the league, right, and but he wasn't gonna
win it because just you would have either lamar around
putting up silly numbers. So if he just has a
(16:13):
really good year and then Baker falls off a little bit,
like there's you've got to remember this is like a
human award, right, Like it's not like just here's the
stats and here's what has to happen. There's a lot
of it is name recognition, but there's you know, there
might just be like, hey, let's get Mahomes his third
(16:34):
MVP if he has a really good year, because I
think he's what he's won in twenty eighteen and then
twenty twenty two, So that's probably the other.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
Name about Daniel Jones. Like, weirdly enough, if it wasn't Baker,
I would put Daniel Jones above Allen and Mahomes right now.
Speaker 1 (16:56):
Peronly issue with Daniel Jones. But I think I'll try.
Speaker 3 (16:59):
To what you said. I'm kidding.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
Yeah, I think I'd give it to Jonathan Taylor ahead
of Daniel Jones. That's my problem with DJ.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
Yeah, we're back by the way, Bijon should be in
the conversation at least like he's not going to win
it as.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
A uh can't sustain it though I don't think yeah,
but like.
Speaker 3 (17:19):
He's as of right now, I'm saying he should at
least be mentioned, like I mean he's two and thirty
eight scrimmage yards, yes, say the last game that he played,
I think he had two hundred and something.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
Like Uh, Rico dowdellco Daddle. Yeah, conversation, we're Rico Donald
Truther podcast.
Speaker 1 (17:38):
I do want to get to the slate. We've got
our plant the Flag game. I want to do a
Thursday night pick as well, since by Thursday's episode some
of that information can be outdated, so we want to
get something on the card early for that. But before
we move on from the headlines, the main dish, Briank
Callahan is out as the head coach of the Tennessee Titans. Stucky,
(17:58):
you were addicted to this team, linelast year they let
you down time and again, your hands off. I believe
you even went into therapy for this. Are the Titans
now biddable?
Speaker 3 (18:09):
Possibly? I mean they're still really bad, but I mean
callaham was so bad that he would cost them multiple
times a game that and I think that was part
of the reason why the market could never catch up
to how bad Tennessee was. Their offensive line is now
healthy at least, but Calvin Ridley has now banged up
(18:30):
their defense as a couple of injuries on the edge.
So yeah, I mean they're a little bit more intriguing,
but it's still not a great team. But I uh, yeah,
they've been in bet jail. They're my one bet jail
team for the past couple of weeks.
Speaker 2 (18:48):
One week stuck, he wasn't on them, he shot on
me and I took the Titans and they Cardinals.
Speaker 3 (18:54):
Yes, but they were also they should have been now
twenty eight six in that game, so I wasn't too
upset that I didn't have them. I didn't have them
last week against the Raiders, so yeah, I might. I'm
a little more intrigued by them, is what I'll say
than I was before, because Callahan was, I mean, like
four and twenty against the spread, whatever it was is
beyond It's incomprehensible that you could be that in an
(19:19):
NFL market. So yeah, a little bit more intriguing, but
not a team. I'm like running, like knocking, knocking, deb
through doors to get my money down on.
Speaker 2 (19:30):
But we doubted you, We doubted you, but I.
Speaker 1 (19:34):
Thought you'd be all the way back in kender Do
you want to say, Kendrick, do you want to save
your take on this for plant plant the flag? Or
do you want to let it fly now?
Speaker 2 (19:42):
No, we can save it, okay.
Speaker 1 (19:44):
The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where
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use the promo code favorites when signing up with DraftKings again,
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(20:06):
dollars and get three hundred back in bonus bets. If
your bet wins plus three months of NBA League pass,
the crown is yours. Before we get to Thursday Night football, Stucky,
give us a Tuesday night bet in college football so
that we can keep the good fortune rolling. But I
want you to explain it to us in NFL terms
(20:26):
that we can understand.
Speaker 3 (20:30):
FIU plus ten against Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky is sort
of like the Bucks. I guess they have a bunch
of really close wins this year against some bad teams
that also had injuries. I mean, this is a team
(20:53):
and some misleading finals. Like they've returned it onside kick
at the end of the game against Nevada, but they
were losing in the fourth quarter of that game. They
were losing in the fourth quarter against Missouri State. It
was not a very good team and lost their star
quarterback in the second half. So this team has just
been very very fortunate. Good offense, bad defense, and FIU
that is coming off a blowout law they look horrendous
(21:15):
at the UK company. If that's seventeen days off new staff,
I think that's beneficial to clean some things up. But
I just don't this Western talking team is. I don't
trust them to win by significant margin, so I think
it's a good time to fade them. So I'm taking
FIU and Keon Jenkins, who was their quarterback. So it's
(21:36):
as if like the Bucks would be, you know, ten
point favorites over.
Speaker 1 (21:45):
Kind of like when they played the Jets.
Speaker 3 (21:46):
Maybe, yeah, similar to that's covered well.
Speaker 1 (21:50):
If you're wondering out there, how can he how can
Stucky operate in that sleep? But why doesn't this guy
lay his head on his pillow at night? That explanation
is exactly why doesn't happen because he knows such things. Also,
Pitbull basically owns FIU for what it's worth. Soon Yeah,
Steelers Bengals. Steelers favor by five and a half on
(22:11):
Thursday night, totals sitting at forty two and a half.
The Steelers have won and covered three straight. The Bengals
covered on the road, much to my chagrin against Green Bay,
but they still have a negative eighty point differential. That's
number one or number thirty two. Rather in the NFL.
Flacco has made their offense slightly better, But is it
(22:33):
enough to get you to the window? Stucky where you
at on Thursday night?
Speaker 3 (22:38):
Maybe? I mean, my numbers say to play Cincy, so
I might get down there. I might get there. Small.
I generally hate Thursday night football, so don't I usually
don't bet it big Cherry Hendrickson that got banged up,
and like he is the only good defender on Cincinnati,
so that's noteworthy. We're doing this before any injury reports.
(23:01):
But Pittsburgh, I mean, Pittsburgh is a team that I
am looking to fade, like they've just coming up in
the next Maybe it's this week, maybe it's the next
couple of weeks. Because and the Steelers do this every year.
They get off to a hot start, then they fade
at some point. And this year, like they beat the
Jets Week one, the winless Jets, they should have lost
that game. Then you know, they lost by two touchdowns
at home to the Steelers. They did win in New England,
(23:23):
but New England had five turnovers. New England should have
won that game. And then they beat the Vikings and
Carson Wentz in London, by three, and then they beat
Dylan Gabriel in a horrendous spot last week, like right,
they were coming off of a bye, it was a
rookie quarterback on the road after being overseas, and then
Brown's had a ton of injuries during that game. So yeah,
(23:43):
I think the Steelers a very fraudulent four and one,
although their defense is getting healthier, but still like now
they're length five and a half on the road again
since he maybe Flacco now has a little bit more
timeouts a short week, which is in an ideal, But
to remember, this is a guy that came in to
the offense and to the whole operation, like in the
(24:05):
middle of the week last week, like the whole new
playbook called new Players. So I think as time goes on,
it's gonna get a little more comfortable. He's still not great,
he's still you know, old, but it's better than what
Jake Browning was putting out there. So yeah, from a
numbers perspective, this is a since he played for me
a couple of injuries. I want to watch probably have
(24:27):
it small, but I would like to get a six
at this I don't know if we'll get it, though.
Speaker 1 (24:32):
Kendrew you in on it.
Speaker 2 (24:34):
I am probably on the under in this game, if anything,
divisional game. I think both the Steelers have once eat
like you said, fraudulent four and one fraudulent for in one.
I don't believe in that offense as much as they
showed a like decent amount of spark earlier or two
days ago on Sunday. I just I can't get behind
(24:57):
them being like a juggernaut of an offense. The ben
still lots of questions. I think once Joe Flacco probably
has the opportunity to learn the playbook more, it might
look a little bit better. More so just that it's
a divisional game to me, and you have two seventy
five year old men playing quarterback, so love those love.
Speaker 3 (25:14):
The that fields. The oldest quarterback matchup.
Speaker 1 (25:17):
It could be.
Speaker 2 (25:17):
Gotta be, yeah, gotta be.
Speaker 3 (25:19):
It could have been a brady.
Speaker 1 (25:22):
On on the Flacco front. I mean, how many times
in his career now has he played against the Steelers,
you know, I mean he's played for every team in
the AFC North except for Pittsburgh, so he's definitely accustomed
to this matchup as far as the short week goes.
And still not having a lot of time to really
acclimate himself. This is about the best matchup he could
ask for in terms of familiarity.
Speaker 2 (25:45):
Yeah, that's a good point. I didn't think about that,
but yeah.
Speaker 3 (25:49):
That works both ways though too right, I mean Tom
because Tomlin has been there forever. Oh, Brady was forty
three and Breeze it was forty two and twenty one.
That's the oldest ever.
Speaker 1 (26:01):
Okay, so I am. I'm not betting this personally, and
I'm pretty much with you guys as far as the
Steelers are frauds, but I placed a bet on them
to win the Super Bowl this morning. Hear me out.
Hear me out. Oh, it's not like I actually think
they're going to win the Super Bowl. I just think
the number is crazy. The offense doesn't look particularly good.
(26:21):
The defense is an elite, but between Rogers TJ. Watt,
the mediocre play that we're seeing out of the AFC.
If they're in a critical situation late in the playoffs
against these against like the Jaguars, if they meet them
in Jaguars.
Speaker 2 (26:37):
The Steelers don't even the Jaguars podcast. The Jaguars own
the Steelers and the Colts. Colts haven't won in Jacksonville
in over a decade, missed me with the.
Speaker 1 (26:48):
Steelers are thirty. The Steelers are thirty to one to
win the Super Bowl. They're the two seed in the AFC.
They might have a first round by they're going to be.
Speaker 2 (26:56):
Kicking a knife out of my back that you just
stabbed in and did pretending to be a fake Jags
fan this whole time. Not miss me. Uh uh ain't
a way.
Speaker 3 (27:06):
The funny thing is, yesterday I placed a Super Bowl
bet on the Ravens, so uh hear me, I said
I was gonna do it one in five. They're gonna
get healthier after the buye their schedule now they had
one of the hardest schedules so far. Now they're gonna
have one of the easiest schedules. To Steelers, schedule gets
a lot more difficult. And this is basically like can
the Ravens chase down Pittsburgh they play him twice in December?
(27:30):
Their schedule gets easier, Steelers it gets more difficult, Like
Lamar's gonna be back after the buy their defense, you
get healthier. I'm trusting in that organization to not like
sign or trade for someone like can they go get
just throwing a name out of here, But like, could
they go get like a Dexter Lawrence or someone like that,
like an impactful See de Way like someone like that,
(27:51):
because without Montabuk they need it. But yeah, I think
this is just the bottoming of the market on Baltimore.
I'm just trying to time it. And like, so if
they would they come back and win the division, you know,
then they're going to be in like six seven, nice ticket,
So yeah.
Speaker 1 (28:06):
I would. I think that maybe that's just that's the
general advice here is like just find if you think
that there's value on someone in the AFC, just buy them.
I mean, think about it, whether it's the Ravens working
their way back up into the mix, or the Steelers
ticket that I purchased this morning. The playoffs right now,
the Colts is the one seed, the Chargers are the
three seed, the Patriots, the Bills, the Jags, the Broncos.
(28:28):
Which one of those teams can you not beat? Especially
if you have home field advantage in the playoffs?
Speaker 3 (28:34):
The jarl beatable is the Jags podcast you keep forgetting.
Speaker 2 (28:37):
That Privates, I can't believe. I cannot believe you have
done this to us.
Speaker 1 (28:45):
Hey, let's you know what, we can always add to
the ticket. Okay, we can.
Speaker 2 (28:48):
We can disappointed.
Speaker 3 (28:50):
I will not be. I will not be investing in
the Steelers in the Bowl, but.
Speaker 1 (28:53):
I Jaguars fourteen to one to get the one seed.
That's also possible. All right, time to plant your flag
present by draft Kings. Shut up, I'm.
Speaker 3 (29:05):
Trying to plant my flag here.
Speaker 1 (29:06):
Okay, you're really planning your flag in that thick Let's
go around the horn here, Hendra, We'll start with you.
Where are you planning that flag? This week?
Speaker 2 (29:16):
I am gonna go with the Titans on the seven
and a half. I have to. Okay, they just fired
their coach. I told you guys a couple weeks ago
that whoever the first team to fire their coach was,
I would get on them the following week. There's always
an amount of get up. It's a fake revenge game
for vrabel Way, why is that fake? Because I with
(29:40):
you just picked against the Patriots. You just talked about
how much you didn't like them last week.
Speaker 1 (29:47):
This this, I mean honestly, had I even thought about
the fact that they were heading into Tennessee the following week,
I would have probably doubled down on the Saints, which
would have been a horrendous decision in hindsight. But this,
this is one variable's gonna have guys ready to go.
Speaker 2 (30:01):
Yeah, but it's over a touchdown in the NFL, the
week after a team fired their coach, it's got to
be a.
Speaker 3 (30:07):
Third trade road game, third trade road game two for
New England, which is noteworthy. Yeah, it over a touchdown.
I couldn't it's New England. I mean, it's Tennessee or nothing.
Speaker 1 (30:17):
For me.
Speaker 3 (30:18):
This is a tough week so far. I haven't even
bet anything yet. There's a lot of injuries to monitor.
I'm still going through every game, but I'll plan my
flag on Minnesota. I mean, this Eagles team as a
road favored or I don't even know the quarterbacks gonna
be for the Vikings this week, but they still haven't
announced if it's going to be McCarthy or Wentz. But
they should be healthier coming out of the by like
they had a ton of injuries, like Bankinkle should be
(30:39):
back their offensive line and a ton of injuries. They
should be much healthier there. And this Eagles team is
just a mess right now. Like I there were laying
points in Minnesota against Flores with a banged up offensive line,
an offense that looks completely broken. I mean they need
to get to a bye week and figure some things out.
And then defensively, Jalen Carter is banged up, Quinnon Mitchell
(31:01):
got hurt, the rest of that unit is not playing
very well. Uh, Minnesota off the by great staff, one
of the best home field advantages in the NFL. Yeah,
I'll play my flag on the Vikings.
Speaker 1 (31:14):
I did already bt the Vikings at plus two and
a half, so I'm with you on that. I don't
think are we at the point now where Carson Wentz
JJ McCarthy The line doesn't move an inch depending on
who the quarter is.
Speaker 2 (31:26):
I think Carson Wentz is better. I still stand on that,
and that's saying a lot.
Speaker 3 (31:30):
I think Gurds Wentz is better right now. There's a
wider I mean, there's more variance with McCarthy. It's like
we think there's a lot we just still don't know.
But like, yeah, I think Once is better than McCarthy
right now. There's a wider range of outcomes that McCarthy
plays like.
Speaker 1 (31:43):
But in terms of spread value, I don't think the
and I don't think based on.
Speaker 3 (31:47):
The marginal, Like it's not like this would go to
three or anything. So yeah, I think it's very marginal.
Maybe there's a group or someone with a lot of
market influence money who does have a really strong opinion
on that, But for me, I mean it's like a
half point difference.
Speaker 1 (32:04):
So would you advise waiting for the three though for
people that are listening to this, or do you think
it never gets there?
Speaker 3 (32:13):
I don't think it would ever get the three, So.
Speaker 1 (32:17):
I tend to agree Raiders plus eleven and a half,
planting my flag on that one. I was surprised to
see this touch twelve yesterday. It's back down to eleven
and a half. The Raiders always play the Chiefs well.
It was nice to see some signs of life from
Gino in company, even if it was against the horrendous
Tennessee Titans. But this is more of a fate of
(32:39):
Kansas City selling high on a team that now everybody's
bought back in on major letdown spot against the division
rival over ten points. Raiders auto play. I mean, we
brought this up last week that this was probably going
to be a play on the Raiders today. Any pushback
from anybody, I mean, you're going.
Speaker 3 (32:58):
To get Rice back, so they ken the I mean,
the Raiders are going to play their zones, are going
to try to prevent explosives. They might be able to
run the ball a little bit because the Chiefs Rundy
has not been great. But but man, that I mean,
I would have loved I would love if Bowers played,
And I don't know if he's he's gonna play, so
(33:19):
that hurts, and you don't have your left tackle, which
still really hurts. They're offensiven like even against Tennessee they
only average but like four yards per play last week.
But yeah, I would love it if the Bowers played.
But I don't think he will because if you look
at the Raiders schedule, I mean, they're in desperation, so
maybe he will, but they're they're two and four because
they have the Chiefs then a bye week, so like,
(33:40):
if you're looking at it from the franchise's perspective, you
don't play him this week, you have an eck. You
basically have three more weeks for him to get healthy.
So that's the only thing that I would note. But
I think your logic makes sense.
Speaker 1 (33:54):
In his sound, I almost fell off my chair just
now appreciate you guys coming back around on me after
all that jag stuff. All right, for yourself, this is
your last chance, Kendrick before before I officially tag this
with our DraftKings sponsorship. Are you sure you want the Titans?
Speaker 2 (34:13):
Are you bullying me right now?
Speaker 3 (34:16):
Raiders? You can't bully about the Titans.
Speaker 1 (34:18):
Yeah, I do love, I do loa, I will say
always love the fired the coach angle, so you do
have that the worst.
Speaker 3 (34:28):
Coach of all time you fired?
Speaker 2 (34:30):
So yeah, a monkey could call plays better than him.
Speaker 1 (34:36):
Uh So, here are your Plant the Flag Games presented
by DraftKings. Kendra is on the Titans plus seven Stucky
as the Vikings plus two and a half, and I
am on the Las Vegas Raiders plus eleven and a half.
The dogs are barking this week. Now time for our
main event. No betting week can start without it. It's
the primer courtesy of the Voice of God, Evan Abrams. Evan,
(34:59):
Welcome to the show. When is the last time you
had an uncrustable.
Speaker 4 (35:04):
That's actually a really good question. It's been a few years.
They're very tasty. They are good road trips snacks.
Speaker 3 (35:09):
I will give you that.
Speaker 4 (35:10):
So that's probably where I stand there. The deep fry
of a of an uncrustable feels like a very very
dangerous game.
Speaker 1 (35:17):
So I don't know if I'll be playing that boo.
Speaker 4 (35:21):
That seems very Maybe Halloween, I don't know, maybe we
could do something stupid.
Speaker 1 (35:25):
I'm sure that if if you were to go to
the Texas State Fair for ou Texas, I'm sure that
they've done that already. They were frying mayonnaise this past weekend.
Speaker 4 (35:34):
Snickers fried Snickers is a good idea.
Speaker 1 (35:37):
Before.
Speaker 4 (35:40):
Yeah, I've heard that.
Speaker 3 (35:42):
It's amazing. Actually, I'm serious. It's like I didn't know
what to expect, but it was like the best thing
I've ever tasted in my life.
Speaker 2 (35:51):
Really, how does it not melt?
Speaker 1 (35:55):
That's a good question.
Speaker 3 (35:56):
I don't know. I don't know the science behind it.
Speaker 4 (35:58):
But encapsulated in the fried bread, Kendra, that's obviously how
do you not know that?
Speaker 2 (36:05):
God, idiot?
Speaker 4 (36:07):
Have you had fried butter Evan, I've tasted it? Yes,
it's good, right, it's absurd.
Speaker 3 (36:12):
Yeah, yeah, like you feel you don't want to be
eating it because it's like I'm just you're basically eating
a like a worst version of stick of butter. Because
then it's just fry.
Speaker 2 (36:22):
But it's it's diabetes.
Speaker 3 (36:26):
Man, it's hard to sounding.
Speaker 1 (36:27):
That sounds like a heart attack. But I did you
like the road dog angle of the young crustable? All right, Evan,
what are we looking at? What are the trends we
need to be aware of.
Speaker 4 (36:35):
I'll give you two so off the bat, that kind
of back up what you guys are talking about prior
to this. So the Mahomes angle, obviously they're laying eleven
and a half this week as a favorite above a
touchdown since twenty twenty, the man is thirty six and
two straight up, but thirteen twenty four and one.
Speaker 3 (36:51):
Against the spread as that big of a favorite.
Speaker 4 (36:54):
The thirty six and two best in the NFL, the
thirteen twenty four and one worse than the NFL, and
that's something we've seen recently. The best note is this
above a touchdown favorite since twenty twenty, he's thirty and
oh straight up versus anyone not name the Raiders.
Speaker 1 (37:09):
So both his.
Speaker 3 (37:10):
Losses Christmas Day one of them.
Speaker 4 (37:13):
Yeah, Christmas Day, and you know everyone's opening presents and
the Chiefs can't get to fourteen points.
Speaker 2 (37:18):
We alle at.
Speaker 4 (37:20):
The other fired angle I'll give you this one, so
I think more impactfully, I looked last decade, just since
twenty sixteen, most recently so Callahan twenty third coach fired
prior to twenty two.
Speaker 3 (37:33):
Teams listen just ten and.
Speaker 4 (37:35):
Twelve straight up, eleven to eleven ats next game, even home,
it's pretty much even ground. I think the one angle
you would look at is the team that fires the
head coach. Twenty eight percent straight up, thirty six percent
against the spread before the firing, goes up about seven
per six six seven percent straight up, but twelve percent
(37:58):
against the spread after the firing. So the teams end
up do finding themselves a bump in whatever stretch left
of the year they have the game after here or there.
Sample size a little bit small, I will say this,
the line of seven on the game decently large for
after a coach getting fired, especially at home. Those numbers
(38:19):
kind of point towards Tennessee getting the cover. But either way,
the bump it does exist.
Speaker 1 (38:26):
Interesting, So do you think that that's just been overrated
over the years? Has that become a pregame show narrative
more than an actual betting angle.
Speaker 4 (38:35):
I think the cause of the bump for the rest
of this season is something noteworthy because you had to
be bad enough to get fired in the first place,
and usually that impacts straight up more than against the spread.
But that number ats prior of thirty six percent, that's terrible.
So to get back to fifty percent after the firing
(38:57):
of forty eight percent, that twelve percent delta is noteworthy.
Like the team gets better.
Speaker 1 (39:02):
Yeah, so you.
Speaker 3 (39:04):
Number one, you're you're probably bottomed out, so like there's
nowhere to go about ut. Generally speaking, if you're a
coach that got fired, you're more than likely not a
bad coach, and that's the case with Callahan. And then
also there's just hey, you bring in a new regime.
You are a bad team, right, you were. You had
to have a really really bad record to get fired,
So that means that you were probably doing some things
(39:25):
that were not ideal for your team schematically or using
your players. Right, So you get a new voice in there,
they might listen to the players. They're going to try
some new things. That's more applicable to the first game
with a new coach. Right, So there might be some surprises,
right that the Patriots aren't expecting that you might you
(39:47):
that the Tennessee might try and then will break tendencies
of what they've been doing. But I think there's there's
definitely a lot behind why a team would improve the
rest of the way the.
Speaker 1 (39:59):
Law is sound for why anyone and Kendra is wanting
to back the Tennessee Titans. My issue with it is
that is the other side of the angle, and I'm
curious if there are any numbers behind this, Evan, because
you have Mike Rabel coming into town who was fired
by the Tennessee Titans. So if we're talking about aggressiveness
(40:20):
late in the game to prove a point against a
bad team, Mike Rabel's probably gonna do that. This is
a throat on the jugular kind of game, I would think,
So I'm curious if there's anything on coaches that are
facing the team that previously fired them.
Speaker 3 (40:37):
Yeah, I just think you'd be small enough sample.
Speaker 4 (40:39):
I'm literally staring at all of the coaches who have
faced the new coach after the fired I just don't,
you know, to cross reference to see if the team
had faced them. I haven't done that yet, But to
my standpoint, I believe that the bump is there no
matter the circumstance everything else a little noisy. You could
(41:01):
believe the storylines you want with Rabel and I think
I agree with you, like there's no reason for him
not to stomp on Tennessee's neck if he.
Speaker 3 (41:09):
Has the ability to.
Speaker 4 (41:11):
But as a whole, I think the line's a little inflated.
I also think it's probably just gonna go up sixty
four percent of tickets seventy four percent of the money
on New England. I think as we get closer to
the weekend, it could get to stuck.
Speaker 3 (41:23):
What do you think seven and a half? Is it possible?
Speaker 1 (41:27):
Like?
Speaker 2 (41:27):
Do we keep going there's one already here?
Speaker 4 (41:31):
Yeah, Okay, there you go.
Speaker 3 (41:33):
I think it'll close seven, but I think they will
probably season seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (41:38):
What about so Dan Campbell Monday Night Football against the Bucks.
That's a really interesting game. I think that's a really
tough one to peg from a betting perspective because the Lions,
we know, have just been so good against the spread,
yet their secondary. We'll see what happens this week. But
so banged up against Kansas City and that was such
a casey spot on Sunday Night Football. Now they play
(41:59):
the Buck. The Bucks are without everyone on offense and
they've been awesome. So Dan Campbell off a loss, though,
I would think is probably the primer angle to follow here.
What do we have on that if anything?
Speaker 3 (42:14):
Yeah, very simple.
Speaker 4 (42:16):
I mean Goff and Campbell fifteen twelve and one straight up,
twenty and eight against spread afful loss. But what everyone
will tout they've covered in won eleven straight dating back
to the November of twenty twenty two. So basically, they
come off a loss, they mow people over. And I
think the angle that is more of an outlier when
(42:38):
it comes to this is just the fact that when
GoF is a favorite, he's pretty much just crush competition,
especially when it comes to night games and things.
Speaker 3 (42:45):
Of that nature. They just they're ridiculous.
Speaker 4 (42:48):
During the regular season, GoF is nineteen and three straight
up as a favorite in night games, nine to zero
with the Lions. He's made thirty nine starts at night
in prime time twenty one and five straight up as
a favorite, So and we saw it was interesting is
four and nine as an underdog. So, uh, the role
we saw against Kansas City kind of followed what he's
done previously.
Speaker 1 (43:08):
But in this.
Speaker 4 (43:09):
Spot, especially awful loss, everyone just going to make the
assumptions on Detroit series in the line. Actually, wow, I
literally just looked at this line had gone down to
four and a half. I didn't see that it was
five and a half last night.
Speaker 3 (43:21):
There's so many injuries to keep track of. There. You
have all the Lions corners. There're gonna be a little
bit corners again. Then you have this the safety that
might get suspended or he is suspended, but he's appealed. Yeah,
but he's going to appeal it, so I don't know
if that's changed. Taylor Decker's hurt too, And then the Bucks.
You have all the offensive line injuries.
Speaker 1 (43:44):
Hockey.
Speaker 3 (43:44):
Every's not gonna play, Godwin's not gonna play. Buka mri
Evans could be back. But that's a lot like you.
That's a tough game to crack. But there might be
some market movement throughout the week based on the injuries
because the Lions defense is a ton and their left
tackle and the box offense is decimated throughout. But maybe
(44:04):
just Baker Anfield, it doesn't even matter and he's gonna
find guys no matter what against a just completely depleted secondary.
But there's a lot of moving pieces with that game.
Speaker 1 (44:16):
I'm gonna want to be on the lines, but I
think to Stucky's point, waiting is probably the best option here.
That right there is why we save Evan for the
end of the episode. That was fantastic. That'll do it
for today's episode special thanks to our producers David Paine
and Gifford Gold. The Favorites will return on Thursday right
here on the Action Network you Catube page, when we
detail our week's seven best bets, unveiling this week's two
(44:37):
Kings and a Queen parlay Redemption ahead, ladies and gentlemen,
We'll see you next year on the Favorites presented by
DraftKings were out.
Speaker 2 (44:54):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four seven at one eight hundred Gambler
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Simon Hunter
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