October 21, 2025 • 42 mins
Action Network hosts Stuckey and Brandon Kravitz team up after another Monday Night Football double-header as the Lions and Seahawks cruise as favorites! On today's show, Lamar Jackson might be back for Baltimore, Thursday brings us the Vikings and Chargers, injuries are everywhere in the NFL and Opening Night in the NBA is here, all while Kendra's off in Scotland. The guys plant their flag early in the week and we get some nuggets from the weekly NFL Primer courtesy of Action Director of Research Evan Abrams, delivering everything needed to start digging into the betting week in the NFL.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined
by the one and only Stucky Kendrim Middleton, flying across
the globe. From what I've heard right now, experiencing a
history of Scotland tour has also I believe she has
(00:30):
chugged the barrel of whiskey at this point, and we
will get updates come Thursday's episode. But we have all
the info that you need to get set for another
profitable week. On today's episode, we've got our plant the
Flag game for week eight, a breakdown of the top storylines,
and of course the main event Evans Tuesday primer. You
can't start an NFL betting week without it. The curse
(00:53):
continues for the Seattle Mariners, Dodgers, blue Jays set for
the world series. Make sure you're tracking all of Sean
Zarrillo's action on all of that on the Action Network app.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
NBA starts tonight.
Speaker 1 (01:04):
We've got you covered with the Best Bets episode over
on Buckets. I'm part of that as well as far
as the first night of the NBA. Stucky, who you
got Tonight? In the National Basketball Association.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
I don't bet the NBA, so I couldn't die. I
didn't even know it was starting tonight. Lo I am.
I was told, I see someone has like load management
on day one.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Yes, Mitchell Robinson of the New York Knicks. That'll be
tomorrow night. I was told, if I was given a
debrief before we hit record, that you're not an NBA guy,
So I figured you'd hit me with that. Do you
have one question for me as it pertains to the NBA?
Give me your thirty thousand foot I don't care about
(01:49):
this league question heading into the season with it starting tonight.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
Why don't they shorten the season? That's my question?
Speaker 2 (01:57):
Money, that's insane. There is way too many games.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
Way too long. But yeah, I mean, look, people, people
love that different strokes, different folks teach their own.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
Well, do you care about everything?
Speaker 1 (02:16):
I see you out here tweeting about baseball quite often?
How do you even have time to be because I
assume you're a casual viewer of the game of baseball,
but you're on like fifteen podcasts. How are you able
to keep up with that sport on a casual level
with everything you have going on?
Speaker 2 (02:36):
Especially this time of year. It's one thing in June.
Speaker 3 (02:38):
Yeah, I mean I followed most of the year, and
it's always I always have it on in the background.
It's good background music, so to speak, for when I'm
going through all the games. But just comes down to
not sleeping. In the fall. We got to college basketball.
It's coming up. I'm trying to find time to prepare
for that. And I'll be betting that you want to
(03:00):
think about that right now. But now I have no
questions on them. I couldn't even I'm trying to think, like,
what intelligent question I could ask about the NBA. Who's
a sleeper in the East. Isn't the East wide open?
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Like the East?
Speaker 1 (03:15):
The East is pretty wide open. I would say the
Detroit Pistons are a good sleeper in the East. A
lot of attention focused on the Knicks and the Calves
kind of in a tier at the top, followed by
the Orlando Magic. A lot of people expecting big things
from them.
Speaker 3 (03:29):
But what about the Hawks.
Speaker 1 (03:31):
The Hawks could definitely be one of those teams, but
they kind of feel like a paper champion. They loaded
up in free agency and we've seen them. We see
this in the NFL every year, the team that wins
the off season is usually the team that falls short
of expectation. So there's a lot of hype from the
casuals around the Atlanta Hawks, But I think when you
get down to brass tacks, they're probably gonna let people down.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
That was a good question.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
And don't the rockets out of a point guard or something?
Isn't that they don't?
Speaker 2 (03:58):
They lost their Hey, you know more than you give
yourself credit for.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
Yeah, they lost Fred van Fleet before the season started,
so they have to turn to a second year guy
and read Shepherd, and they added Ky that's right, Kentucky guy.
Uh So we'll see how that works out. Houston should
be really good. I am on OKC. By the way,
minus seven and a half track that.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
Right before we lose all of our followers. We got
to get onto the MF.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
I'm on it. Yeah, let's do it all right.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
Football two games, we saw the Lions slowly dismantle the
Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a low scoring game twenty four
to nine. Jamiir Gibbs with the fastest touchdown run that
we've seen in the last four seasons. Mike Evans broke
his collar bone or his clavigal. The Bucks cannot stay
healthy to save their lives. Was that a game of
(04:45):
the Lions reclaiming the top spot in the NFC? They
feel like they are above the pack in terms of
that conference.
Speaker 3 (04:52):
To me, I'd still think the Packers as of today.
I mean it was a great effort. I mean that
there were so many injuries on both sides that it's
like it was hard to make any of that game.
I thought Detroit had had a good defensive game plan.
A lot of their guys in the secondary stepped up.
I thought it was a pretty ugly game overall. Baker
Mayfield played awful, probably because I didn't have money betting
(05:15):
against him. He missed like some wide open guys and
maybe the magic is finally run out because he was
going up against a bunch of backups in that secondary.
I know that the Bucks that have wide receiver injuries,
but that hasn't mattered all year. So yeah, I still
need like Detroit has a tough schedule coming down the stretch.
(05:38):
It was a great Detroit spot off that loss at
home where they're just unbeatable and unbettable against almost so yeah,
but the Lions are definitely a player in the NFC.
I can't see it with the Bucks. It's like, I
don't I don't see it with the defense overall. I mean, look,
(05:58):
it's taken Baker Mayfield playing at a top five level,
which I'm not sure he can sustain in order for
them to basically win a bunch of games in the
final minute. So I'm not I don't think that they're
a legit real player, especially with all the injuries that
they're dealing with in the NFC. And then I mean,
(06:20):
I thought overall is I think Seattle is definitely interesting.
I mean it's they're playing such a top division, Like
who's going to come out of that division? I think
maybe San Francisco eventually falls behind just because of all
their injuries on the defensive side of the ball, But
they're gonna get healthier on offense. But you have the
Rams who look really good, and I think the Seahawks
(06:40):
with that defense, that defense is elite, that defensive line
is elite, their secondary is only going to get healthier.
And Sam Darnold that offense are real. I mean they
push it downfield off play action as well as anybody
in the league. And then you have the Cardinals, who
I know that they're two and five, but they basically
are in every single game they easily could be four
and three or five and two, and they've had a
(07:02):
ton of injury, so they're gonna get healthier. So that
division is going to be an all out war. But
I think you have to take Seattle seriously at this point.
And for the Texans, it's the same old story. It's like,
did we even get a new offensive coordinator? All the
short yardage runs a predictable run. Has it worked for
the Texans since like twenty nineteen and their goal line,
(07:25):
their short yardage, their early down play calling is so
bad and it all comes down to the offensive line,
So like, you have to be proactive about that. Get
Straud out of the pocket more, don't run on you know,
known predictable downs when you know you can't get a
push and you know you're gonna lose the line of
scrimmage coaching malpractice from Tamiko Ryans. At the end of
(07:45):
that second down, run then and then and then the
kickoff into the end zone. Then basically the game went
to the two minute warning and it was over. So
you know, I would love that a team where I'm
the head coach, and by head coach, I mean I
just do all in game and challenges and clock management.
And then I got Mike McDaniel as my offensive coordinator
(08:08):
Damiico Ryans as my defensive coordinator. Both great minds and
their own aspects maybe not cut out to be the
best head coaches. So yeah, Houston looks like they're just
you can't take them serious. It's the same exact issues
as last week.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
Didn't store.
Speaker 1 (08:26):
They didn't score an offensive touchdown last night until two
minutes left in the game. At that point it was
garbage time, so really not able to get into the
end zone. As you mentioned Seattle, they're really good with Houston,
and I feel like we kind of know what Seattle is.
I feel pretty confident about our read on what they are.
I feel like when we look at the Texans from
(08:48):
a power rating perspective, they're still graded among the decent
teams in the NFL, and I just wonder if we're
if we're not overrating them. I mean, this week they're
favored against the San Francis GO forty nine ers. What
have they shown to warrant that I think that we
may I think we might have to just bail on
(09:09):
Houston with their inability to score, and C. J. Stroud
is just essentially a less effective version of Jared Goff.
If he's not able to work off of play action,
he's lost. He throws off his back foot, he misses
receivers over the top, and this seems a disaster. Are
we is this a by low or is it we
(09:30):
haven't gotten low enough on the Texans. I think that's
sort of the story with Houston is do you view
them as well, they can't get any worse, they're going
to be on the come up, or we should actually
go further into dragging their rating down.
Speaker 3 (09:46):
Yeah, I mean, I think they're just like a slightly
below average team that they have an elite defense, like
you could argue they have on paper a top three
defense in the league. So that's always gonna keep them
up a bit from like really plummeting. Overall. Nico Collins
got hurt, that's huge. Otherwise if without him got to
(10:09):
I mean, it's early, it's Tuesday, we won't really know
much for the next day or two. But without him,
it's just like a bunch It's like a bunch of
young Iowa state wide receivers on the outside. So yeah,
I mean, look, San Francisco that are like just an
all out max effort with all of their backups on defense.
We got to keep an eye on the injury report
with them as always, so I could potentially see myself
(10:33):
buying Low. I mean they I need Nico Collins in there.
The San Francisco defense, I think it just played up
on Monday night. They're without Bosa and without Warner, They're
they're not going to be able to get pressure. They're
not going to be able to just completely overwhelm an
offensive line likes a Seattle Can, which is what you
saw against you. So Houston's offensive line won't look as
(10:55):
bad against San Francisco, and they'll be playing at home,
and that defense is always going to come to play,
especially at home, in like pretty much a desperation spot.
So yeah, I could see myself potentially buying Houston, but
a lot of injuries on San Francisco to keep track
of it. Then Nico Collins is a big one for Uston.
Need him in there, so we'll see. I haven't played
(11:18):
anything there as of yet.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
As for the NFC West, before we move off of
them completely, if you look at the odds right now
on DraftKings to win the division, every single team you
can get it plus money. The Rams are plus one
forty five, the forty nine ers are plus one fifty,
Seattles plus two seventy. I think if I had to
take a bite of the apple, that would be my bite.
(11:40):
And the Cardinals are two hundred to one, so that
might be worth a dollar if you had to bet
it right now, who would you place your money on
to win the Division?
Speaker 3 (11:53):
I mean, to be honest, I would probably just throw
some couch change on the Cardinals at two hundred to one.
I mean, they're only going to get healthier like they go.
I mean, their schedule is not easy, is but like
this is the team that's been in every game. But
(12:13):
if I the way that it probably plays out, and
this is all priced in is I just don't think
that San Francisco can overcome their defensive injuries, and the
Rams are I think just a little bit above. I
know they have a loss to San Francisco already, which
is what you have to account for, but I think
(12:33):
the Rams, as long as they stay healthy, are cut above.
But you know it's I mean, the reason the Cardinals
are two one, are two and five, and there's three
really good teams significantly ahead of them.
Speaker 1 (12:45):
So like, in order to call them of the remaining
strength of schedule, the Cardinals have the toughest rated strength
of schedule left among these teams.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
In the bottom. They're in the twenties in terms of
strength of schedule.
Speaker 3 (13:02):
Yeah, I mean it's that there's a reason it's two
hundred to one. Like jumping all three of those teams,
that's a that's a tall order. So I yeah, maybe
just for fun the Cardinals, But I do think the
Rams eventually take the division. The value is probably in
Seattle though, as you said, but I'm pretty close to
market when I when I ran it just now like,
(13:27):
but Seattle, their offense is real and their defense they've
been playing without guys in the secondary. When they get
healthy on the back end, with that defensive front, they're
they're definitely a scary team. So yeah, I think the
Rams win it, but I think the value is probably
with Seattle.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
Yeah, I think I'm gonna end up placing something on Seattle.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
Let's talk about the ravens Lamar did not practice on Monday.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
The line indicates that he's gonna play.
Speaker 1 (13:53):
The Ravens are taking on the Bears this week, Ravens
off of a bye, Ravens favored by six and a
half points. But with a week off, and then you
come back on Monday to practice and Lamar Jackson still
isn't out there. Jim Harball or John Harball rather never
said well, he's definitely going to play in week eight.
He said that I hope he plays in week eight.
(14:14):
So there's still a lot of unknown out there. I
took a little grab at the plus six and a
half on Chicago because there's no guarantee that Lamar is
going to be out there. That is a gift from
the gods. Lamar is worth about seven points to the spread.
So yeah, maybe I get caught here with a bad number.
But if Lamar doesn't play, I'm sitting pretty I put
(14:35):
a I put one unit on that. Where do you
land on how we read this one early in the
week with the Ravens.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
I completely disagree with you.
Speaker 2 (14:44):
Are you going head to head? What? Let's go ahead
to head?
Speaker 4 (14:48):
Sure?
Speaker 3 (14:48):
I mean the Raves gonna be my plant, my flag game.
I do think that Lamar plays. I mean it makes
sense to give him a couple more days of rest
with his hamstring. I mean there's been time where he
doesn't practice until Thursday or Friday of a game week,
and then he'll play. So like, I don't even think
if he doesn't practice today, I don't even think it's
a big deal. I mean, there's obviously a chance he
(15:09):
doesn't play. So I mean, if you wanted to take
the number because of that, that's fine. I'm of the
belief that he is going to play. Uh, and then
the Ravens are going to be pretty much fully healthy
across the board except for their defensive line. They're gonna
have everyone back in the secondary line back, the Roquan
Smith will be back. They're finally go out there full
(15:31):
arsenal like Recard likely they're all their weapons on offense
assuming Lamar is back, and they could finally run the
offense that has been arguably the best offense the NFL
over the past three years. That's big And this is
also a fate of the Bears. So I mean, I
think that if if Lamar plays and you have John
Harball is the best coach in the NFL after the
(15:52):
buye since he took over in Baltimore, desperation spot for
the Ravens against the Bears team that's won four straight.
But if you look at what the Bears have done,
and look, they're improving under Ben Johnson, but they've beat
the Commanders who shell unit the Raiders, and they got
(16:13):
crushed in that game statistically, ra a game by like
three arts per play, the Saints and the Cowboys, who
were extremely banged up as well, so they've benefited from
a lot of injuries. And across those games they went
three for four and fourth down their opponents three for
eight plus thirteen turnover margin over their past four games.
(16:35):
Over that stretch, they're third and EPA per play on defense,
but they're twenty fourth in success rate, and if you
take away those turnovers, twenty ninth and EPA per play
twenty ninth in success rate. It's been a bottom three
defense even during the four game winning streak. Said, they've
just gotten a lot of turnovers against some bad quarterbacks,
(16:56):
so and some pluky turnovers like the Washington fumbles, and
but yeat Gino Smith just throwing it right to them
multiple times the Saints last week. So I'm not I'm
not sold on this Bears defense is still really bad.
They also have some injuries. I think this is a
(17:16):
spot as long as Lamar plays, and to your point,
it's not guaranteed. So if you I can't blame, you're
taking the points in saying, well, maybe he doesn't play.
I think he's gonna play. I think this closes above seven,
and I think the Ravens win this game by twenty plus.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
The Ravens with Lamar have a very rich history against
the NFC, and I'm sure that that will be on
Evans primer. I can't even get to I can't get
to seven with Lamar on this game. So I love
the six and a half right now, but I'm not
gonna throw. If I love a bet, I'll throw two
(17:53):
units on it in the NFL. But I'm gonna wait
just in case Lamar plays. Maybe I get a better number,
but I probably going to come back in on the Bears.
Even if Lamar does play. We'll go head to head
on that this week. I'll have to come up with
some sort of wager.
Speaker 2 (18:06):
What about the defensive injury? Yeah, maybe like maybe like
a hat something like that add to the collection.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
What about the defensive injuries for the Ravens Because it's
with Lamar being part of the storyline here, he's going
to gobble up all the headlines. But the Ravens have
been dealing with a lot of injuries in the secondary
and just all around their defense. It looks like they're
getting some guys back. Is that what you're seeing as well?
Speaker 3 (18:29):
Yeah, everyone's back except for some guys on a man
of Bouquets out for the year, so that's he's never
coming back. But Roquan Smith's coming back. And then their
entire secondary, which I think is top two or three
in the NFL. Everyone's back, Hamilton Humphrey, Aloozia, So everyone's back.
They're gonna have their full compliment on the back end.
(18:52):
Basically everyone practice that was available except for Lamar yesterday,
So they're gonna be signal efficantly healthier than they have
been over the past couple weeks. I just think it's
a smash spot for the Ravens. But if Lamar doesn't play,
then yeah, you're gonna have a good number. I'm just
I just think that he will. But yeah, defense will
(19:12):
be much healthier, so it won't be a JV defense
like they've been fielding a couple weeks. Before the bye,
so I think you get a good effort there.
Speaker 1 (19:21):
We're about to take a look at Thursday Night Football
Vikings at Chargers, but first a word from our friend
Kendra as we chat about DraftKings.
Speaker 5 (19:30):
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Speaker 2 (19:49):
If your bet wins.
Speaker 5 (19:50):
Plus three months of NBA League Pass, the crown is yours.
Speaker 1 (19:54):
Before we get the Thursday Night football Stucky last week
he gave us a dub on Tuesday Night in College.
Can we keep the good fortune rolling? Should we just
double back on Fiu?
Speaker 3 (20:04):
I do think Ifius brought the small bet at three
kensall has been good. But I think that they're kind
of peeked out in the market. So I think at
plus three FIU, who I think is a little undervalued
in the market due to the fact that they played
a couple games without a lot of key guys in
their secondary. They're now fully healthy. Their depth is really
(20:27):
really bad there. So yeah, Panthers in Pitbull Stadium. I
think we're at a small bet.
Speaker 2 (20:33):
Not all right?
Speaker 1 (20:34):
How about that two weeks in a row, see if
we can profit off of the FIU Panthers. Let's look
at Thursday Night Football Vikings Chargers.
Speaker 2 (20:42):
Thursday Night Football.
Speaker 1 (20:43):
Chargers favored by three over under, sitting at forty four
and a half. The Vikings quarterback situation still an unknown.
Carson Wentz has reverted back to bad. Carson Wentz through
two interceptions, one of those was a pick six to
the Eagles.
Speaker 2 (21:00):
But the Chargers haven't been good either. They lost. They've
lost three of their last four.
Speaker 1 (21:04):
Now we have injuries to monitor Joe alt on the
Chargers side, Andrew Van Ginkel on the Viking side.
Speaker 2 (21:13):
I tend to lean towards the Vikings.
Speaker 1 (21:15):
Here, as frustrating as WinCE is, and we have no
idea if JJ McCarthy is any good at football yet.
I just think Minnesota is the better team right now.
So this will be one of my biggest discrepancies on
the board in terms of the numbers that I make,
I think red zone issues one for six Minnesota was
last week and they had a pick six. It's swinging
some people's perception. The only issue is, and the only
(21:36):
reason why I haven't fired on this is that this
is a by low for both of these teams. So
I'm just not ready to slap this with the best
bet tag. But where do you land on Thursday night?
Speaker 3 (21:46):
Yeah, I think at three you can only look at Minnesota.
I mean, look against the Eagles. They basically mean they
give up a fourth down long bomb touchdown and threw
a pick six and then they had the I mean,
they should have covered that game. They had a touchdown
that was called back for holding, they had another touchdown
that they was reversed after a review. They were plus
(22:07):
twelve percent net success rate over the Eagles down the
down basis. They dominated that game. They're just a couple
of bombs that the Eagles hit on third and longs
and fourth downs, and then Minnesota had a snap over
their head at one point and then threw a pick six.
And we're in the red zone seven times and had
one touchdown, So they were actually really good. The Chargers
(22:29):
just got dominated. Then they have their offensive line issues.
Maybe Joe All comes back, but are so crippling right
now that it's hard to see them winning by margins.
So yeah, I think that the only look there is
Minnesota plus three or better if this comes. I also
think it's a what's this total totals forty four and
(22:52):
a half should be like a lower scoring game, I
would imagine, So I also don't think, you know, if
this is like two and a half ish, If it
gets down to the two and a half by the
time you're listeners on Thursday, it's not a bad teaser piece.
If you want to tease up through three and seven,
pair with like Atlanta getting Atlanta down to like minus
one and a half against the Dolphins, I don't think
(23:13):
that's a bad teaser either. But yeah, I think it's
I think it's Minnesota or nothing. The Chargers right now,
their offensive line is basically just their offense is broken,
and it's hard to see them pulling away from a
game Minnesota team with Brian Flores. If you have a
beat up offensive line playing that Minnesota defense, it's not
(23:34):
going to be a walk in the park. So I
think it's Minnesota or nothing.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
I just psychologically have a really hard time pulling. I
love betting teasers. I usually have two going into any
weekend in the NFL, and I've been doing really well
with them this year, But Thursday night teasers frustrate me
to no end, because if you don't hit the Thursday
night leg, then you just have this great number sitting
out there on Sunday that means absolutely nothing. Some of
the others, since you mentioned some possible legs to a
(24:01):
teaser forty nine ers up to seven and a half,
I like what you said about the Falcons down to one,
the Saints up to ten and a half against the
beat up Bucks team in the division, and the Cowboys
up to nine against the Broncos. That has close game
written all over it. Those are some others that I
think we could look out there and yeah.
Speaker 3 (24:19):
That's talk with this a lot of our actioncocust generally speaking,
I mean, you want to get the would I would
try to get minus I would normally only try to
go through three and seven, and that's and then the
lower the total the better. Obviously, if you have like
a really high total of like fifty five, then you
(24:40):
know points getting those six points is in as valuable
as say, if you had a total of forty one,
So the lower the total the better. And then if
you can go through three and seven, which are the
two most key numbers when it comes to football betting,
that's your ideal long teaser on both ends. Now, there
are exceptions to the rule, and everyone has a little
(25:01):
bit of art to the to their own teaser making,
but those are the general rules that you want to
follow for the most part. If you go back and
do the math, historically that that's that's the best way
to go. But I think my favorite one of the
weekend would be charge if the charters are like two
(25:21):
and a half, teasing them up, excuse me, if the
vikings are at two and a half, teasing them up
eight and a half, pairing them with the falcons both
totals under forty five points.
Speaker 1 (25:31):
I tend to limit myself to to two legs. Are
you of the same mindset? Don't go past two with
the teasers.
Speaker 3 (25:38):
There's some there, There's an argument to me, and it
all comes down to price. So there are times for
a three team teaser can make sense, but that's a
conversation for another day. But I generally just two team,
two teams six point teaser. There was a time when
you used to be able to get them, like how
(26:00):
you had a place one time where I could get
them plus one ten and then for a while two team, yep,
then plus one hundred for a while. That is no longer,
no longer a thing.
Speaker 1 (26:15):
Minus one twenty five is about the best that I
can find out there.
Speaker 2 (26:18):
These days you.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
Still get minus one twenties are out there DraftKings, I
think it or minus one thirty five. Some of them
are dynamic. But yeah, there was a time you can
get plus money on them. All good things must come
to an end.
Speaker 1 (26:36):
Well, it is time to plant our flag presented by
draft Kings of the Crown is yours?
Speaker 3 (26:44):
It shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.
Speaker 2 (26:47):
Okay, you're really planning your flag in that thing.
Speaker 1 (26:50):
I have a feeling I know where you're going, Stucky.
Would you like to make another case for the Baltimore
Ravens minus the points here?
Speaker 3 (26:57):
No, my case, it's my team wrong before, But my
track record it's pretty good on the Ravens. I think
it's just the smashpot Bears have been extremely fortunate with turnovers.
If Lamar plays I don't see much resistance that these
Bears defense will provide, and I think the Ravens defense
will look a lot healthier. Harball will lead off the
buy and yeah, I think this has a bloodbath rotten
(27:21):
all over it. Assuming Jackson place, that's the big mystery.
But I think this line should be above a touchdown
if he does well.
Speaker 1 (27:28):
If you like Stucky's side on this, just know that
every time we've gone head to head, it's either been
a draw or I've lost.
Speaker 2 (27:35):
So perhaps well, I definitely do.
Speaker 1 (27:40):
That's what what do doesn't mean anything got to come
through with the win. I like the Steelers Sunday Night
Football plus three. That's where I will plant my flag.
I love this spot for Pittsburgh ten days to prepare
Green Bay off of a Western time Zone road game
heading over to Pennsylvania. The Packers have not looked dominant
as of late. And then of course you have the
(28:01):
Aaron Rodgers aspect to this. He's going to be extra
dialed in for this one. This is the first time
he's ever played against the Green Bay Packers, and I
love the way their offense looks.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
Rogers is pushing the ball down the field all of
a sudden.
Speaker 1 (28:14):
That's the more trustworthy unit for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but
you also have Mike Tomlin as a dog one of
the more tried and true trends that's out there.
Speaker 2 (28:22):
Just a lot to like.
Speaker 1 (28:23):
I like sitting with that plus three in pocket before
we get the Sunday.
Speaker 3 (28:28):
Yeah, I don't mind this one. I mean it's a
classic Tomlin Rauros spot, catching points at home against a
good team. Generally speaking, in the past, his teams have
performed very well in this spot and Rogers is gonna
get rid of the ball quick here neutralized. I mean,
we saw that when the Steelers played the Vikings. When
(28:49):
the Steelers played the Browns, who have elite pass rushers,
Packers do as well. Rogers get rid of the ball
very very quick, neutral eye that pass rush, and I
think that there'll be some opportunities for the Steelers to
move the ball. It's a tough spot, as you mentioned,
classic raw Ros spot for Tomlins, so I think taking
(29:10):
the three there makes sense.
Speaker 2 (29:12):
That plus three minus one oh two.
Speaker 1 (29:14):
Right now on DraftKings as we speak to recap our
plant the flag games for this week, we don't have
one from Kendra, but we will get an official leg
for our two Kings and a Queen parley coming up
on Thursday, but our plant.
Speaker 2 (29:27):
The Flag games for this week.
Speaker 1 (29:29):
Stucky has the Ravens minus six and a half against Chicago.
I have the Steelers plus three against the Green Bay
Packers on Sunday night football. Now is time for the
main event. No betting week can start without it. Is
the primer courtesy of Evan Abrams. Go check out his
article at actionnetwork dot com. Evan, Welcome to the show.
(29:51):
Are you betting the NBA tonight?
Speaker 6 (29:52):
I was gonna say Happy NBA Day everybody. I mean
a little bit. I'll dabble here and there. It's not
my top sport, you know, no question about it. But
I know what's going on. I follow here and there.
Good friend Matt Moore, you, I'll listen to buckets. We'll
get it done.
Speaker 1 (30:10):
Okay, let's dig into this. I think we'll start with
the Ravens Bears. It's been the hottest topic of the
show today. Lamar, if he does return, just off of
memory for me, has a very good history against the NFC.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
What do you have on that?
Speaker 6 (30:26):
Yeah, really good history against the NFC. But to be
honest with you, it hasn't been great lately. I mean
when you look at the numbers, I believe they've lost
a few overall. They lost to Detroit a little while
ago as well, I believe, so to me, some of
those numbers have kind of come back to the mean
a little bit. I mean, he was twenty three and
one first twenty four versus NFC since then losing to
(30:48):
Philly and Detroit, so numbers are there, but.
Speaker 4 (30:51):
To me, it's you know, turned a little bit.
Speaker 6 (30:53):
The one number I was going to look into this
week is coaches facing Lamar for the first time, which
I will probably have in my article, which is pretty terrible.
Usually when they first see him, it's a little bit difficult.
Obviously he's got to be out there to play, but
a little bit difficult. Nonetheless, I believe he's like, you know,
thirty eight and eleven or something like something crazy, So
(31:15):
that'll be in there as well.
Speaker 4 (31:16):
But I think that's one part of it. He's a
very very difficult to game plan for.
Speaker 2 (31:21):
Uh jule Off.
Speaker 3 (31:22):
The buyer Harbay extra Prep. Do you have that in
there this week?
Speaker 4 (31:26):
Yeah?
Speaker 6 (31:27):
So if you look at the Ravens off a buyer
to Harbaugh fourteen and three straight up in the regular season,
three and one in the playoffs, so pretty good. Lamar
seven and two in his nine starts off of bye week,
so good stuff, but kind of baked into the number
a little bit.
Speaker 4 (31:43):
It's just like ten and seven things like that. Raven
is usually a favorite.
Speaker 3 (31:46):
I will say that the By the way, there's other
quarterback news to watch, which is like Bryce Young, Jane Daniels.
Am I missing anybody else that's questionable this week?
Speaker 2 (32:00):
Well, I'm party, but I'm not.
Speaker 3 (32:02):
Sure Prety, Yeah, the sand Feran news. But I will
just say this, if you're thinking about betting the Ravens
Bears game, like tomorrow is the big day. That's all
I'll say. Now, even if he doesn't practice, Thursday is
like a huge day. But today and yesterday as a
(32:23):
Ravens fan and knowing just the cadence of their practice
and how they handle these things, it doesn't mean anything.
Doesn't mean he's gonna play. But I'll just tell you
that if he doesn't practice today, it doesn't mean anything.
Tomorrow big, Thursday huge. But I've seen Lamar in the
past with an injury doesn't practice until Friday, the plays,
But tomorrow is meaningless to me. Tomorrow will be the
(32:46):
first like read on what's going on. But I digress.
Speaker 1 (32:52):
You mentioned Andy Dalton. What is Andy Dalton's record as
a starter against the spread?
Speaker 2 (32:58):
Do we have that in the article this week?
Speaker 4 (33:02):
I could pull it in a few minutes.
Speaker 6 (33:03):
The way I was looking at this situation was just
kind of comparing the two quarterbacks.
Speaker 4 (33:08):
I mean, at least from one standpoint. I mean, Dalton's
been pretty bad since twenty three, one.
Speaker 6 (33:12):
In five straight up one and five against the spread,
losing by about eight points per game on the margin ats.
Speaker 2 (33:19):
I feel like that's the relevant number two.
Speaker 1 (33:20):
I'm not that concerned with his career, because it's just
that at that point we're stretching into a sample that's
not relevant, correct.
Speaker 6 (33:29):
But to me, the interesting part is, I don't think
it's a shock to anybody that's watched both these quarterbacks
play like Dalton's been better. He's about seventeen spots better
EP eighth per play and eight to ten spots better
in success rate versus Bryce Young.
Speaker 4 (33:42):
In that span.
Speaker 6 (33:43):
So record showing one thing, but I think Dalton's actually
kind of played better and been more consistent. But we
will see based off the scenario this week.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
Right now, that game, by the way, for the Bills.
Speaker 1 (33:58):
The Bill's favored by seven and a half against the
Carolina Panthers, so the Panthers will be getting a couple
of extra points with Bryce Young not playing in that game.
We also have a double digit spread in the Colts
Titans game. Cults favored by fourteen against the Titans. I'm
sure there's value on Tennessee. It doesn't matter, they never
(34:19):
come through on it. But multi touchdown favorites in division,
what about that?
Speaker 4 (34:26):
I mean, we just saw the Chiefs do it. Yeah,
we just saw the Chiefs do it and they won
thirty one nothing.
Speaker 6 (34:30):
So I wouldn't say you should be running to the
window to bet Tennessee. But yeah, like the number over
the last twenty years faves and division above ten points,
forty five point nine percent, it's a really really small
tight spaces. The one thing I will say, November or
earlier with those numbers.
Speaker 4 (34:48):
Forty three percent, forty three.
Speaker 6 (34:49):
And fifty seven against the spread, so gets you know,
it gets a little bit better. But to me, this
has got to be a play on a different level.
I'll just give you one of my favorite facts from
the week, so Daniel Jones knows something about overcoming expectations.
Colts six and one straight up this season after entering
the year with a regular season win total of just
seven and a half. The only recent example dating back
(35:11):
to start of the twenty fifteenth season of a team
starting six and one with a win total below eight
the Giants in twenty twenty two, who started six and one,
of course with Daniel Jones. So Daniel Jones done it.
Two separate teams, quick starts, low win totals, just overcoming expectations.
But yeah, Colts minus fourteen in this game at the moment,
(35:32):
just kind of hard to look either way based off
of what they've done.
Speaker 4 (35:35):
Especially Colts ats margin up to.
Speaker 6 (35:37):
Like eleven points per game, highest we've seen since the
twenty one Cardinals.
Speaker 4 (35:41):
So just a wild start.
Speaker 1 (35:43):
Colts team total over might be a look with if
Simmons is out for the Tennessee Titans, I might play
it that way, but we'll see what that looks like. Stucky,
you have anything else. That's all of the notes that
I had for Evan.
Speaker 3 (35:55):
Panthers defense has quietly been very very good. I think
they're up to like third and success right the run
Dye has been dominant. I'm curious to see if Buffalo
comes out out of the by and lets Alan cook
instead of trying to run, which I think they've been
doing a little too much so far this season. So
I'm curious to see how the Bills approach their offensive
(36:19):
game plan out of the buy let me look, I mean, yeah,
I'm I show some value in the Titans. Am I
going to get Simmons? Is obviously huge? Am I going
to get there? I don't know. I'm tired of losing
money on the Titans.
Speaker 4 (36:31):
That's the best thing I'll say, stuck is the look
ahead on that game, like three season look ahead was
three and a half.
Speaker 6 (36:38):
So if you just want to talk about the differences
in the two teams, that is one crazy one.
Speaker 3 (36:43):
Yeah, I mean that the Colts just keep covering like
it's it's pretty insane. I mean the Jets. I show
value in the Jets. I mean the Bengals are approaching
a touchdown favorite with.
Speaker 1 (37:00):
They're up to seven right now on DraftKings. This was
six and a half yesterday.
Speaker 3 (37:05):
Like now we have to see that's another quarterback. They
another quarterback storyline Fields or Tyro Taylor if Tyron Taylor
plays and we have to watch Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner.
Not having Sauce Gardner might hurt against Chase Nickots. But
like Flacco is not a good quarter. I had a
good he had a good day, but I mean, he's washed.
(37:28):
This is the worst offensive line in the NFL, or
one of them arguably the worst defense in the NFL.
Like you're gonna tell me the Jets with if it's Tyrod,
I mean, I think Rod's an upgrade ever fields at
this point, if like especially if Wilson is there an
update on Garrett Wilson, I don't know if there is one.
Speaker 2 (37:45):
He's questionable.
Speaker 3 (37:46):
Wilson and Taylor play like this is the number rat
Like I took the Jets plus seven seven and a
half at Tampa, Like this is the number at home
against the Bills, and like they're gonna be catching this
at Cincinnati with Joe Flacco, no offensive line and zero defense,
(38:10):
Like even the Jets might be able to move, Like
the Jets should be able to move the ball. Everyone
can move the ball, like you can just hand it
off and you're gonna be able to like since he
has no resistance, but who's playing quarterback. Garrett Wilson. Obviously
he's important. Otherwise you're just your thermy to the throw
in too, like Josh Reynolds every play, and then Sauce
Garner is obviously big for this particular matchup. But this
(38:32):
is getting a little rich for Cincinnati, who was like
two weeks ago, you know, catching two touchdowns. Now they're
favored by a touchdown over team. I get the Jets
are winn us, but I mean they've cut their three
and four or four. Both these teams are the same
against the spread record, so that one's getting a little
up there. Man, there's some bad football teams. This just
(38:55):
look back at this past weekend. There was like two
good games like Vikings Eagles and then the end of
the Giants. That game sucked for the entire game quarter
and then what was the other like really watchable game
like Packers Cardinals, Like that was pretty much it. There's
(39:17):
so many bad teams.
Speaker 1 (39:18):
The one o'clock window was one of the worst that
you'll that you'll ever see.
Speaker 3 (39:23):
Trying to sell like sell the witching iron. He was like, well, okay, well,
nothing's one possession game now. So a lot of the
injury stuff I have a lot more on Thursday. We'll
have some of our Action Network podcast that we record tomorrow.
I got to go through a lot of these matchups
and injuries. Ones that stuck out to me that I
just wrote down were the Jets depending on their injuries,
(39:48):
the Ravens that's obviously it's my plant the flag. Possibly
the Texans but need injury info. So there's a lot
of There's a lot of injury and quarterback info this week,
which makes a little tougher, especially this early in the week.
So there was no like slam dunk spots or games
that I do like your the Steelers call out that
(40:09):
was one, But other than that, now I got nothing.
Speaker 2 (40:12):
What about the Broncos and the Cowboys.
Speaker 1 (40:13):
These are two teams that I think were I think
they're both coming into this game overvalued. It's kind of
the opposite of Thursday Night Football, where you have two
by lows with the Vikings and the Chargers, and I
think those are two sell high teams that I think
I want to be on Denver, but I.
Speaker 3 (40:28):
Don't like betting Denver as a favorite, Like you need
bow Knicks to win by margin, and he's just not
playing well, like he'll have he has flashes, Like against
the pre event of the Giants, he came back. They
put up but they had zero points to three quarters
against the Giants defense at home. This is the team
that barely beat the Jets the week before. So I
(40:51):
just don't want to like points them. Am I running
to bet the Cowboys? I mean they were offense, Like
if you give me three and a half flat, I
could only look at the Cowboys just their offense is
playing so well. You got the much better quarterback, certain
can only take out one of those receivers. But I
mean the Cowboys defense is really bad. But there's no
reason why, Like bow Knicks is gonna get stops. He
(41:14):
stops himself, and like there's no reason why Dak and
this offense the way that they're rolling, can't put up
enough points to cover. But three is probably the right number,
so it should be an entertaining game. But I just
don't like blank points, especially you know, over a field
(41:34):
goal with with bow Knicks in that offense.
Speaker 1 (41:36):
Yeah, I think I might take the cow I think
the Cowboys are a perfect teaser leg for this week.
Speaker 2 (41:40):
I might just play it that way. Evan, thanks so much.
Speaker 1 (41:43):
That's gonna do it for today's episode special thanks to
David Payne and Gifford Gould, our producers. Phenomenal stuff by Stuckey,
and we will get a pick from Kendrick who's in Scotland.
We'll get a pick from her. On Thursday, we'll do
our official Week eight best Bets, unveiling this week's two
Kings and a Queen parlay. We'll see you next time
here on the Favorites presented by DraftKings, We're out.
Speaker 2 (42:18):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
Speaker 1 (42:22):
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred Gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined
by the one and only Stucky Kendrim Middleton, flying across
the globe. From what I've heard right now, experiencing a
history of Scotland tour has also I believe she has
(00:30):
chugged the barrel of whiskey at this point, and we
will get updates come Thursday's episode. But we have all
the info that you need to get set for another
profitable week. On today's episode, we've got our plant the
Flag game for week eight, a breakdown of the top storylines,
and of course the main event Evans Tuesday primer. You
can't start an NFL betting week without it. The curse
(00:53):
continues for the Seattle Mariners, Dodgers, blue Jays set for
the world series. Make sure you're tracking all of Sean
Zarrillo's action on all of that on the Action Network app.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
NBA starts tonight.
Speaker 1 (01:04):
We've got you covered with the Best Bets episode over
on Buckets. I'm part of that as well as far
as the first night of the NBA. Stucky, who you
got Tonight? In the National Basketball Association.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
I don't bet the NBA, so I couldn't die. I
didn't even know it was starting tonight. Lo I am.
I was told, I see someone has like load management
on day one.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Yes, Mitchell Robinson of the New York Knicks. That'll be
tomorrow night. I was told, if I was given a
debrief before we hit record, that you're not an NBA guy,
So I figured you'd hit me with that. Do you
have one question for me as it pertains to the NBA?
Give me your thirty thousand foot I don't care about
(01:49):
this league question heading into the season with it starting tonight.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
Why don't they shorten the season? That's my question?
Speaker 2 (01:57):
Money, that's insane. There is way too many games.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
Way too long. But yeah, I mean, look, people, people
love that different strokes, different folks teach their own.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
Well, do you care about everything?
Speaker 1 (02:16):
I see you out here tweeting about baseball quite often?
How do you even have time to be because I
assume you're a casual viewer of the game of baseball,
but you're on like fifteen podcasts. How are you able
to keep up with that sport on a casual level
with everything you have going on?
Speaker 2 (02:36):
Especially this time of year. It's one thing in June.
Speaker 3 (02:38):
Yeah, I mean I followed most of the year, and
it's always I always have it on in the background.
It's good background music, so to speak, for when I'm
going through all the games. But just comes down to
not sleeping. In the fall. We got to college basketball.
It's coming up. I'm trying to find time to prepare
for that. And I'll be betting that you want to
(03:00):
think about that right now. But now I have no
questions on them. I couldn't even I'm trying to think, like,
what intelligent question I could ask about the NBA. Who's
a sleeper in the East. Isn't the East wide open?
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Like the East?
Speaker 1 (03:15):
The East is pretty wide open. I would say the
Detroit Pistons are a good sleeper in the East. A
lot of attention focused on the Knicks and the Calves
kind of in a tier at the top, followed by
the Orlando Magic. A lot of people expecting big things
from them.
Speaker 3 (03:29):
But what about the Hawks.
Speaker 1 (03:31):
The Hawks could definitely be one of those teams, but
they kind of feel like a paper champion. They loaded
up in free agency and we've seen them. We see
this in the NFL every year, the team that wins
the off season is usually the team that falls short
of expectation. So there's a lot of hype from the
casuals around the Atlanta Hawks, But I think when you
get down to brass tacks, they're probably gonna let people down.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
That was a good question.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
And don't the rockets out of a point guard or something?
Isn't that they don't?
Speaker 2 (03:58):
They lost their Hey, you know more than you give
yourself credit for.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
Yeah, they lost Fred van Fleet before the season started,
so they have to turn to a second year guy
and read Shepherd, and they added Ky that's right, Kentucky guy.
Uh So we'll see how that works out. Houston should
be really good. I am on OKC. By the way,
minus seven and a half track that.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
Right before we lose all of our followers. We got
to get onto the MF.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
I'm on it. Yeah, let's do it all right.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
Football two games, we saw the Lions slowly dismantle the
Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a low scoring game twenty four
to nine. Jamiir Gibbs with the fastest touchdown run that
we've seen in the last four seasons. Mike Evans broke
his collar bone or his clavigal. The Bucks cannot stay
healthy to save their lives. Was that a game of
(04:45):
the Lions reclaiming the top spot in the NFC? They
feel like they are above the pack in terms of
that conference.
Speaker 3 (04:52):
To me, I'd still think the Packers as of today.
I mean it was a great effort. I mean that
there were so many injuries on both sides that it's
like it was hard to make any of that game.
I thought Detroit had had a good defensive game plan.
A lot of their guys in the secondary stepped up.
I thought it was a pretty ugly game overall. Baker
Mayfield played awful, probably because I didn't have money betting
(05:15):
against him. He missed like some wide open guys and
maybe the magic is finally run out because he was
going up against a bunch of backups in that secondary.
I know that the Bucks that have wide receiver injuries,
but that hasn't mattered all year. So yeah, I still
need like Detroit has a tough schedule coming down the stretch.
(05:38):
It was a great Detroit spot off that loss at
home where they're just unbeatable and unbettable against almost so yeah,
but the Lions are definitely a player in the NFC.
I can't see it with the Bucks. It's like, I
don't I don't see it with the defense overall. I mean, look,
(05:58):
it's taken Baker Mayfield playing at a top five level,
which I'm not sure he can sustain in order for
them to basically win a bunch of games in the
final minute. So I'm not I don't think that they're
a legit real player, especially with all the injuries that
they're dealing with in the NFC. And then I mean,
(06:20):
I thought overall is I think Seattle is definitely interesting.
I mean it's they're playing such a top division, Like
who's going to come out of that division? I think
maybe San Francisco eventually falls behind just because of all
their injuries on the defensive side of the ball, But
they're gonna get healthier on offense. But you have the
Rams who look really good, and I think the Seahawks
(06:40):
with that defense, that defense is elite, that defensive line
is elite, their secondary is only going to get healthier.
And Sam Darnold that offense are real. I mean they
push it downfield off play action as well as anybody
in the league. And then you have the Cardinals, who
I know that they're two and five, but they basically
are in every single game they easily could be four
and three or five and two, and they've had a
(07:02):
ton of injury, so they're gonna get healthier. So that
division is going to be an all out war. But
I think you have to take Seattle seriously at this point.
And for the Texans, it's the same old story. It's like,
did we even get a new offensive coordinator? All the
short yardage runs a predictable run. Has it worked for
the Texans since like twenty nineteen and their goal line,
(07:25):
their short yardage, their early down play calling is so
bad and it all comes down to the offensive line,
So like, you have to be proactive about that. Get
Straud out of the pocket more, don't run on you know,
known predictable downs when you know you can't get a
push and you know you're gonna lose the line of
scrimmage coaching malpractice from Tamiko Ryans. At the end of
(07:45):
that second down, run then and then and then the
kickoff into the end zone. Then basically the game went
to the two minute warning and it was over. So
you know, I would love that a team where I'm
the head coach, and by head coach, I mean I
just do all in game and challenges and clock management.
And then I got Mike McDaniel as my offensive coordinator
(08:08):
Damiico Ryans as my defensive coordinator. Both great minds and
their own aspects maybe not cut out to be the
best head coaches. So yeah, Houston looks like they're just
you can't take them serious. It's the same exact issues
as last week.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
Didn't store.
Speaker 1 (08:26):
They didn't score an offensive touchdown last night until two
minutes left in the game. At that point it was
garbage time, so really not able to get into the
end zone. As you mentioned Seattle, they're really good with Houston,
and I feel like we kind of know what Seattle is.
I feel pretty confident about our read on what they are.
I feel like when we look at the Texans from
(08:48):
a power rating perspective, they're still graded among the decent
teams in the NFL, and I just wonder if we're
if we're not overrating them. I mean, this week they're
favored against the San Francis GO forty nine ers. What
have they shown to warrant that I think that we
may I think we might have to just bail on
(09:09):
Houston with their inability to score, and C. J. Stroud
is just essentially a less effective version of Jared Goff.
If he's not able to work off of play action,
he's lost. He throws off his back foot, he misses
receivers over the top, and this seems a disaster. Are
we is this a by low or is it we
(09:30):
haven't gotten low enough on the Texans. I think that's
sort of the story with Houston is do you view
them as well, they can't get any worse, they're going
to be on the come up, or we should actually
go further into dragging their rating down.
Speaker 3 (09:46):
Yeah, I mean, I think they're just like a slightly
below average team that they have an elite defense, like
you could argue they have on paper a top three
defense in the league. So that's always gonna keep them
up a bit from like really plummeting. Overall. Nico Collins
got hurt, that's huge. Otherwise if without him got to
(10:09):
I mean, it's early, it's Tuesday, we won't really know
much for the next day or two. But without him,
it's just like a bunch It's like a bunch of
young Iowa state wide receivers on the outside. So yeah,
I mean, look, San Francisco that are like just an
all out max effort with all of their backups on defense.
We got to keep an eye on the injury report
with them as always, so I could potentially see myself
(10:33):
buying Low. I mean they I need Nico Collins in there.
The San Francisco defense, I think it just played up
on Monday night. They're without Bosa and without Warner, They're
they're not going to be able to get pressure. They're
not going to be able to just completely overwhelm an
offensive line likes a Seattle Can, which is what you
saw against you. So Houston's offensive line won't look as
(10:55):
bad against San Francisco, and they'll be playing at home,
and that defense is always going to come to play,
especially at home, in like pretty much a desperation spot.
So yeah, I could see myself potentially buying Houston, but
a lot of injuries on San Francisco to keep track
of it. Then Nico Collins is a big one for Uston.
Need him in there, so we'll see. I haven't played
(11:18):
anything there as of yet.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
As for the NFC West, before we move off of
them completely, if you look at the odds right now
on DraftKings to win the division, every single team you
can get it plus money. The Rams are plus one
forty five, the forty nine ers are plus one fifty,
Seattles plus two seventy. I think if I had to
take a bite of the apple, that would be my bite.
(11:40):
And the Cardinals are two hundred to one, so that
might be worth a dollar if you had to bet
it right now, who would you place your money on
to win the Division?
Speaker 3 (11:53):
I mean, to be honest, I would probably just throw
some couch change on the Cardinals at two hundred to one.
I mean, they're only going to get healthier like they go.
I mean, their schedule is not easy, is but like
this is the team that's been in every game. But
(12:13):
if I the way that it probably plays out, and
this is all priced in is I just don't think
that San Francisco can overcome their defensive injuries, and the
Rams are I think just a little bit above. I
know they have a loss to San Francisco already, which
is what you have to account for, but I think
(12:33):
the Rams, as long as they stay healthy, are cut above.
But you know it's I mean, the reason the Cardinals
are two one, are two and five, and there's three
really good teams significantly ahead of them.
Speaker 1 (12:45):
So like, in order to call them of the remaining
strength of schedule, the Cardinals have the toughest rated strength
of schedule left among these teams.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
In the bottom. They're in the twenties in terms of
strength of schedule.
Speaker 3 (13:02):
Yeah, I mean it's that there's a reason it's two
hundred to one. Like jumping all three of those teams,
that's a that's a tall order. So I yeah, maybe
just for fun the Cardinals, But I do think the
Rams eventually take the division. The value is probably in
Seattle though, as you said, but I'm pretty close to
market when I when I ran it just now like,
(13:27):
but Seattle, their offense is real and their defense they've
been playing without guys in the secondary. When they get
healthy on the back end, with that defensive front, they're
they're definitely a scary team. So yeah, I think the
Rams win it, but I think the value is probably
with Seattle.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
Yeah, I think I'm gonna end up placing something on Seattle.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
Let's talk about the ravens Lamar did not practice on Monday.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
The line indicates that he's gonna play.
Speaker 1 (13:53):
The Ravens are taking on the Bears this week, Ravens
off of a bye, Ravens favored by six and a
half points. But with a week off, and then you
come back on Monday to practice and Lamar Jackson still
isn't out there. Jim Harball or John Harball rather never
said well, he's definitely going to play in week eight.
He said that I hope he plays in week eight.
(14:14):
So there's still a lot of unknown out there. I
took a little grab at the plus six and a
half on Chicago because there's no guarantee that Lamar is
going to be out there. That is a gift from
the gods. Lamar is worth about seven points to the spread.
So yeah, maybe I get caught here with a bad number.
But if Lamar doesn't play, I'm sitting pretty I put
(14:35):
a I put one unit on that. Where do you
land on how we read this one early in the
week with the Ravens.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
I completely disagree with you.
Speaker 2 (14:44):
Are you going head to head? What? Let's go ahead
to head?
Speaker 4 (14:48):
Sure?
Speaker 3 (14:48):
I mean the Raves gonna be my plant, my flag game.
I do think that Lamar plays. I mean it makes
sense to give him a couple more days of rest
with his hamstring. I mean there's been time where he
doesn't practice until Thursday or Friday of a game week,
and then he'll play. So like, I don't even think
if he doesn't practice today, I don't even think it's
a big deal. I mean, there's obviously a chance he
(15:09):
doesn't play. So I mean, if you wanted to take
the number because of that, that's fine. I'm of the
belief that he is going to play. Uh, and then
the Ravens are going to be pretty much fully healthy
across the board except for their defensive line. They're gonna
have everyone back in the secondary line back, the Roquan
Smith will be back. They're finally go out there full
(15:31):
arsenal like Recard likely they're all their weapons on offense
assuming Lamar is back, and they could finally run the
offense that has been arguably the best offense the NFL
over the past three years. That's big And this is
also a fate of the Bears. So I mean, I
think that if if Lamar plays and you have John
Harball is the best coach in the NFL after the
(15:52):
buye since he took over in Baltimore, desperation spot for
the Ravens against the Bears team that's won four straight.
But if you look at what the Bears have done,
and look, they're improving under Ben Johnson, but they've beat
the Commanders who shell unit the Raiders, and they got
(16:13):
crushed in that game statistically, ra a game by like
three arts per play, the Saints and the Cowboys, who
were extremely banged up as well, so they've benefited from
a lot of injuries. And across those games they went
three for four and fourth down their opponents three for
eight plus thirteen turnover margin over their past four games.
(16:35):
Over that stretch, they're third and EPA per play on defense,
but they're twenty fourth in success rate, and if you
take away those turnovers, twenty ninth and EPA per play
twenty ninth in success rate. It's been a bottom three
defense even during the four game winning streak. Said, they've
just gotten a lot of turnovers against some bad quarterbacks,
(16:56):
so and some pluky turnovers like the Washington fumbles, and
but yeat Gino Smith just throwing it right to them
multiple times the Saints last week. So I'm not I'm
not sold on this Bears defense is still really bad.
They also have some injuries. I think this is a
(17:16):
spot as long as Lamar plays, and to your point,
it's not guaranteed. So if you I can't blame, you're
taking the points in saying, well, maybe he doesn't play.
I think he's gonna play. I think this closes above seven,
and I think the Ravens win this game by twenty plus.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
The Ravens with Lamar have a very rich history against
the NFC, and I'm sure that that will be on
Evans primer. I can't even get to I can't get
to seven with Lamar on this game. So I love
the six and a half right now, but I'm not
gonna throw. If I love a bet, I'll throw two
(17:53):
units on it in the NFL. But I'm gonna wait
just in case Lamar plays. Maybe I get a better number,
but I probably going to come back in on the Bears.
Even if Lamar does play. We'll go head to head
on that this week. I'll have to come up with
some sort of wager.
Speaker 2 (18:06):
What about the defensive injury? Yeah, maybe like maybe like
a hat something like that add to the collection.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
What about the defensive injuries for the Ravens Because it's
with Lamar being part of the storyline here, he's going
to gobble up all the headlines. But the Ravens have
been dealing with a lot of injuries in the secondary
and just all around their defense. It looks like they're
getting some guys back. Is that what you're seeing as well?
Speaker 3 (18:29):
Yeah, everyone's back except for some guys on a man
of Bouquets out for the year, so that's he's never
coming back. But Roquan Smith's coming back. And then their
entire secondary, which I think is top two or three
in the NFL. Everyone's back, Hamilton Humphrey, Aloozia, So everyone's back.
They're gonna have their full compliment on the back end.
(18:52):
Basically everyone practice that was available except for Lamar yesterday,
So they're gonna be signal efficantly healthier than they have
been over the past couple weeks. I just think it's
a smash spot for the Ravens. But if Lamar doesn't play,
then yeah, you're gonna have a good number. I'm just
I just think that he will. But yeah, defense will
(19:12):
be much healthier, so it won't be a JV defense
like they've been fielding a couple weeks. Before the bye,
so I think you get a good effort there.
Speaker 1 (19:21):
We're about to take a look at Thursday Night Football
Vikings at Chargers, but first a word from our friend
Kendra as we chat about DraftKings.
Speaker 5 (19:30):
The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where
new customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred
dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins and
three months of NBA League Pass to get started. Use
promo Code of Favorites when signing up with DraftKings. Again,
use Code Favorites when signing up and bet five bucks
to get three hundred back and bonus bets.
Speaker 2 (19:49):
If your bet wins.
Speaker 5 (19:50):
Plus three months of NBA League Pass, the crown is yours.
Speaker 1 (19:54):
Before we get the Thursday Night football Stucky last week
he gave us a dub on Tuesday Night in College.
Can we keep the good fortune rolling? Should we just
double back on Fiu?
Speaker 3 (20:04):
I do think Ifius brought the small bet at three
kensall has been good. But I think that they're kind
of peeked out in the market. So I think at
plus three FIU, who I think is a little undervalued
in the market due to the fact that they played
a couple games without a lot of key guys in
their secondary. They're now fully healthy. Their depth is really
(20:27):
really bad there. So yeah, Panthers in Pitbull Stadium. I
think we're at a small bet.
Speaker 2 (20:33):
Not all right?
Speaker 1 (20:34):
How about that two weeks in a row, see if
we can profit off of the FIU Panthers. Let's look
at Thursday Night Football Vikings Chargers.
Speaker 2 (20:42):
Thursday Night Football.
Speaker 1 (20:43):
Chargers favored by three over under, sitting at forty four
and a half. The Vikings quarterback situation still an unknown.
Carson Wentz has reverted back to bad. Carson Wentz through
two interceptions, one of those was a pick six to
the Eagles.
Speaker 2 (21:00):
But the Chargers haven't been good either. They lost. They've
lost three of their last four.
Speaker 1 (21:04):
Now we have injuries to monitor Joe alt on the
Chargers side, Andrew Van Ginkel on the Viking side.
Speaker 2 (21:13):
I tend to lean towards the Vikings.
Speaker 1 (21:15):
Here, as frustrating as WinCE is, and we have no
idea if JJ McCarthy is any good at football yet.
I just think Minnesota is the better team right now.
So this will be one of my biggest discrepancies on
the board in terms of the numbers that I make,
I think red zone issues one for six Minnesota was
last week and they had a pick six. It's swinging
some people's perception. The only issue is, and the only
(21:36):
reason why I haven't fired on this is that this
is a by low for both of these teams. So
I'm just not ready to slap this with the best
bet tag. But where do you land on Thursday night?
Speaker 3 (21:46):
Yeah, I think at three you can only look at Minnesota.
I mean, look against the Eagles. They basically mean they
give up a fourth down long bomb touchdown and threw
a pick six and then they had the I mean,
they should have covered that game. They had a touchdown
that was called back for holding, they had another touchdown
that they was reversed after a review. They were plus
(22:07):
twelve percent net success rate over the Eagles down the
down basis. They dominated that game. They're just a couple
of bombs that the Eagles hit on third and longs
and fourth downs, and then Minnesota had a snap over
their head at one point and then threw a pick six.
And we're in the red zone seven times and had
one touchdown, So they were actually really good. The Chargers
(22:29):
just got dominated. Then they have their offensive line issues.
Maybe Joe All comes back, but are so crippling right
now that it's hard to see them winning by margins.
So yeah, I think that the only look there is
Minnesota plus three or better if this comes. I also
think it's a what's this total totals forty four and
(22:52):
a half should be like a lower scoring game, I
would imagine, So I also don't think, you know, if
this is like two and a half ish, If it
gets down to the two and a half by the
time you're listeners on Thursday, it's not a bad teaser piece.
If you want to tease up through three and seven,
pair with like Atlanta getting Atlanta down to like minus
one and a half against the Dolphins, I don't think
(23:13):
that's a bad teaser either. But yeah, I think it's
I think it's Minnesota or nothing. The Chargers right now,
their offensive line is basically just their offense is broken,
and it's hard to see them pulling away from a
game Minnesota team with Brian Flores. If you have a
beat up offensive line playing that Minnesota defense, it's not
(23:34):
going to be a walk in the park. So I
think it's Minnesota or nothing.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
I just psychologically have a really hard time pulling. I
love betting teasers. I usually have two going into any
weekend in the NFL, and I've been doing really well
with them this year, But Thursday night teasers frustrate me
to no end, because if you don't hit the Thursday
night leg, then you just have this great number sitting
out there on Sunday that means absolutely nothing. Some of
the others, since you mentioned some possible legs to a
(24:01):
teaser forty nine ers up to seven and a half,
I like what you said about the Falcons down to one,
the Saints up to ten and a half against the
beat up Bucks team in the division, and the Cowboys
up to nine against the Broncos. That has close game
written all over it. Those are some others that I
think we could look out there and yeah.
Speaker 3 (24:19):
That's talk with this a lot of our actioncocust generally speaking,
I mean, you want to get the would I would
try to get minus I would normally only try to
go through three and seven, and that's and then the
lower the total the better. Obviously, if you have like
a really high total of like fifty five, then you
(24:40):
know points getting those six points is in as valuable
as say, if you had a total of forty one,
So the lower the total the better. And then if
you can go through three and seven, which are the
two most key numbers when it comes to football betting,
that's your ideal long teaser on both ends. Now, there
are exceptions to the rule, and everyone has a little
(25:01):
bit of art to the to their own teaser making,
but those are the general rules that you want to
follow for the most part. If you go back and
do the math, historically that that's that's the best way
to go. But I think my favorite one of the
weekend would be charge if the charters are like two
(25:21):
and a half, teasing them up, excuse me, if the
vikings are at two and a half, teasing them up
eight and a half, pairing them with the falcons both
totals under forty five points.
Speaker 1 (25:31):
I tend to limit myself to to two legs. Are
you of the same mindset? Don't go past two with
the teasers.
Speaker 3 (25:38):
There's some there, There's an argument to me, and it
all comes down to price. So there are times for
a three team teaser can make sense, but that's a
conversation for another day. But I generally just two team,
two teams six point teaser. There was a time when
you used to be able to get them, like how
(26:00):
you had a place one time where I could get
them plus one ten and then for a while two team, yep,
then plus one hundred for a while. That is no longer,
no longer a thing.
Speaker 1 (26:15):
Minus one twenty five is about the best that I
can find out there.
Speaker 2 (26:18):
These days you.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
Still get minus one twenties are out there DraftKings, I
think it or minus one thirty five. Some of them
are dynamic. But yeah, there was a time you can
get plus money on them. All good things must come
to an end.
Speaker 1 (26:36):
Well, it is time to plant our flag presented by
draft Kings of the Crown is yours?
Speaker 3 (26:44):
It shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.
Speaker 2 (26:47):
Okay, you're really planning your flag in that thing.
Speaker 1 (26:50):
I have a feeling I know where you're going, Stucky.
Would you like to make another case for the Baltimore
Ravens minus the points here?
Speaker 3 (26:57):
No, my case, it's my team wrong before, But my
track record it's pretty good on the Ravens. I think
it's just the smashpot Bears have been extremely fortunate with turnovers.
If Lamar plays I don't see much resistance that these
Bears defense will provide, and I think the Ravens defense
will look a lot healthier. Harball will lead off the
buy and yeah, I think this has a bloodbath rotten
(27:21):
all over it. Assuming Jackson place, that's the big mystery.
But I think this line should be above a touchdown
if he does well.
Speaker 1 (27:28):
If you like Stucky's side on this, just know that
every time we've gone head to head, it's either been
a draw or I've lost.
Speaker 2 (27:35):
So perhaps well, I definitely do.
Speaker 1 (27:40):
That's what what do doesn't mean anything got to come
through with the win. I like the Steelers Sunday Night
Football plus three. That's where I will plant my flag.
I love this spot for Pittsburgh ten days to prepare
Green Bay off of a Western time Zone road game
heading over to Pennsylvania. The Packers have not looked dominant
as of late. And then of course you have the
(28:01):
Aaron Rodgers aspect to this. He's going to be extra
dialed in for this one. This is the first time
he's ever played against the Green Bay Packers, and I
love the way their offense looks.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
Rogers is pushing the ball down the field all of
a sudden.
Speaker 1 (28:14):
That's the more trustworthy unit for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but
you also have Mike Tomlin as a dog one of
the more tried and true trends that's out there.
Speaker 2 (28:22):
Just a lot to like.
Speaker 1 (28:23):
I like sitting with that plus three in pocket before
we get the Sunday.
Speaker 3 (28:28):
Yeah, I don't mind this one. I mean it's a
classic Tomlin Rauros spot, catching points at home against a
good team. Generally speaking, in the past, his teams have
performed very well in this spot and Rogers is gonna
get rid of the ball quick here neutralized. I mean,
we saw that when the Steelers played the Vikings. When
(28:49):
the Steelers played the Browns, who have elite pass rushers,
Packers do as well. Rogers get rid of the ball
very very quick, neutral eye that pass rush, and I
think that there'll be some opportunities for the Steelers to
move the ball. It's a tough spot, as you mentioned,
classic raw Ros spot for Tomlins, so I think taking
(29:10):
the three there makes sense.
Speaker 2 (29:12):
That plus three minus one oh two.
Speaker 1 (29:14):
Right now on DraftKings as we speak to recap our
plant the flag games for this week, we don't have
one from Kendra, but we will get an official leg
for our two Kings and a Queen parley coming up
on Thursday, but our plant.
Speaker 2 (29:27):
The Flag games for this week.
Speaker 1 (29:29):
Stucky has the Ravens minus six and a half against Chicago.
I have the Steelers plus three against the Green Bay
Packers on Sunday night football. Now is time for the
main event. No betting week can start without it. Is
the primer courtesy of Evan Abrams. Go check out his
article at actionnetwork dot com. Evan, Welcome to the show.
(29:51):
Are you betting the NBA tonight?
Speaker 6 (29:52):
I was gonna say Happy NBA Day everybody. I mean
a little bit. I'll dabble here and there. It's not
my top sport, you know, no question about it. But
I know what's going on. I follow here and there.
Good friend Matt Moore, you, I'll listen to buckets. We'll
get it done.
Speaker 1 (30:10):
Okay, let's dig into this. I think we'll start with
the Ravens Bears. It's been the hottest topic of the
show today. Lamar, if he does return, just off of
memory for me, has a very good history against the NFC.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
What do you have on that?
Speaker 6 (30:26):
Yeah, really good history against the NFC. But to be
honest with you, it hasn't been great lately. I mean
when you look at the numbers, I believe they've lost
a few overall. They lost to Detroit a little while
ago as well, I believe, so to me, some of
those numbers have kind of come back to the mean
a little bit. I mean, he was twenty three and
one first twenty four versus NFC since then losing to
(30:48):
Philly and Detroit, so numbers are there, but.
Speaker 4 (30:51):
To me, it's you know, turned a little bit.
Speaker 6 (30:53):
The one number I was going to look into this
week is coaches facing Lamar for the first time, which
I will probably have in my article, which is pretty terrible.
Usually when they first see him, it's a little bit difficult.
Obviously he's got to be out there to play, but
a little bit difficult. Nonetheless, I believe he's like, you know,
thirty eight and eleven or something like something crazy, So
(31:15):
that'll be in there as well.
Speaker 4 (31:16):
But I think that's one part of it. He's a
very very difficult to game plan for.
Speaker 2 (31:21):
Uh jule Off.
Speaker 3 (31:22):
The buyer Harbay extra Prep. Do you have that in
there this week?
Speaker 4 (31:26):
Yeah?
Speaker 6 (31:27):
So if you look at the Ravens off a buyer
to Harbaugh fourteen and three straight up in the regular season,
three and one in the playoffs, so pretty good. Lamar
seven and two in his nine starts off of bye week,
so good stuff, but kind of baked into the number
a little bit.
Speaker 4 (31:43):
It's just like ten and seven things like that. Raven
is usually a favorite.
Speaker 3 (31:46):
I will say that the By the way, there's other
quarterback news to watch, which is like Bryce Young, Jane Daniels.
Am I missing anybody else that's questionable this week?
Speaker 2 (32:00):
Well, I'm party, but I'm not.
Speaker 3 (32:02):
Sure Prety, Yeah, the sand Feran news. But I will
just say this, if you're thinking about betting the Ravens
Bears game, like tomorrow is the big day. That's all
I'll say. Now, even if he doesn't practice, Thursday is
like a huge day. But today and yesterday as a
(32:23):
Ravens fan and knowing just the cadence of their practice
and how they handle these things, it doesn't mean anything.
Doesn't mean he's gonna play. But I'll just tell you
that if he doesn't practice today, it doesn't mean anything.
Tomorrow big, Thursday huge. But I've seen Lamar in the
past with an injury doesn't practice until Friday, the plays,
But tomorrow is meaningless to me. Tomorrow will be the
(32:46):
first like read on what's going on. But I digress.
Speaker 1 (32:52):
You mentioned Andy Dalton. What is Andy Dalton's record as
a starter against the spread?
Speaker 2 (32:58):
Do we have that in the article this week?
Speaker 4 (33:02):
I could pull it in a few minutes.
Speaker 6 (33:03):
The way I was looking at this situation was just
kind of comparing the two quarterbacks.
Speaker 4 (33:08):
I mean, at least from one standpoint. I mean, Dalton's
been pretty bad since twenty three, one.
Speaker 6 (33:12):
In five straight up one and five against the spread,
losing by about eight points per game on the margin ats.
Speaker 2 (33:19):
I feel like that's the relevant number two.
Speaker 1 (33:20):
I'm not that concerned with his career, because it's just
that at that point we're stretching into a sample that's
not relevant, correct.
Speaker 6 (33:29):
But to me, the interesting part is, I don't think
it's a shock to anybody that's watched both these quarterbacks
play like Dalton's been better. He's about seventeen spots better
EP eighth per play and eight to ten spots better
in success rate versus Bryce Young.
Speaker 4 (33:42):
In that span.
Speaker 6 (33:43):
So record showing one thing, but I think Dalton's actually
kind of played better and been more consistent. But we
will see based off the scenario this week.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
Right now, that game, by the way, for the Bills.
Speaker 1 (33:58):
The Bill's favored by seven and a half against the
Carolina Panthers, so the Panthers will be getting a couple
of extra points with Bryce Young not playing in that game.
We also have a double digit spread in the Colts
Titans game. Cults favored by fourteen against the Titans. I'm
sure there's value on Tennessee. It doesn't matter, they never
(34:19):
come through on it. But multi touchdown favorites in division,
what about that?
Speaker 4 (34:26):
I mean, we just saw the Chiefs do it. Yeah,
we just saw the Chiefs do it and they won
thirty one nothing.
Speaker 6 (34:30):
So I wouldn't say you should be running to the
window to bet Tennessee. But yeah, like the number over
the last twenty years faves and division above ten points,
forty five point nine percent, it's a really really small
tight spaces. The one thing I will say, November or
earlier with those numbers.
Speaker 4 (34:48):
Forty three percent, forty three.
Speaker 6 (34:49):
And fifty seven against the spread, so gets you know,
it gets a little bit better. But to me, this
has got to be a play on a different level.
I'll just give you one of my favorite facts from
the week, so Daniel Jones knows something about overcoming expectations.
Colts six and one straight up this season after entering
the year with a regular season win total of just
seven and a half. The only recent example dating back
(35:11):
to start of the twenty fifteenth season of a team
starting six and one with a win total below eight
the Giants in twenty twenty two, who started six and one,
of course with Daniel Jones. So Daniel Jones done it.
Two separate teams, quick starts, low win totals, just overcoming expectations.
But yeah, Colts minus fourteen in this game at the moment,
(35:32):
just kind of hard to look either way based off
of what they've done.
Speaker 4 (35:35):
Especially Colts ats margin up to.
Speaker 6 (35:37):
Like eleven points per game, highest we've seen since the
twenty one Cardinals.
Speaker 4 (35:41):
So just a wild start.
Speaker 1 (35:43):
Colts team total over might be a look with if
Simmons is out for the Tennessee Titans, I might play
it that way, but we'll see what that looks like. Stucky,
you have anything else. That's all of the notes that
I had for Evan.
Speaker 3 (35:55):
Panthers defense has quietly been very very good. I think
they're up to like third and success right the run
Dye has been dominant. I'm curious to see if Buffalo
comes out out of the by and lets Alan cook
instead of trying to run, which I think they've been
doing a little too much so far this season. So
I'm curious to see how the Bills approach their offensive
(36:19):
game plan out of the buy let me look, I mean, yeah,
I'm I show some value in the Titans. Am I
going to get Simmons? Is obviously huge? Am I going
to get there? I don't know. I'm tired of losing
money on the Titans.
Speaker 4 (36:31):
That's the best thing I'll say, stuck is the look
ahead on that game, like three season look ahead was
three and a half.
Speaker 6 (36:38):
So if you just want to talk about the differences
in the two teams, that is one crazy one.
Speaker 3 (36:43):
Yeah, I mean that the Colts just keep covering like
it's it's pretty insane. I mean the Jets. I show
value in the Jets. I mean the Bengals are approaching
a touchdown favorite with.
Speaker 1 (37:00):
They're up to seven right now on DraftKings. This was
six and a half yesterday.
Speaker 3 (37:05):
Like now we have to see that's another quarterback. They
another quarterback storyline Fields or Tyro Taylor if Tyron Taylor
plays and we have to watch Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner.
Not having Sauce Gardner might hurt against Chase Nickots. But
like Flacco is not a good quarter. I had a
good he had a good day, but I mean, he's washed.
(37:28):
This is the worst offensive line in the NFL, or
one of them arguably the worst defense in the NFL.
Like you're gonna tell me the Jets with if it's Tyrod,
I mean, I think Rod's an upgrade ever fields at
this point, if like especially if Wilson is there an
update on Garrett Wilson, I don't know if there is one.
Speaker 2 (37:45):
He's questionable.
Speaker 3 (37:46):
Wilson and Taylor play like this is the number rat
Like I took the Jets plus seven seven and a
half at Tampa, Like this is the number at home
against the Bills, and like they're gonna be catching this
at Cincinnati with Joe Flacco, no offensive line and zero defense,
(38:10):
Like even the Jets might be able to move, Like
the Jets should be able to move the ball. Everyone
can move the ball, like you can just hand it
off and you're gonna be able to like since he
has no resistance, but who's playing quarterback. Garrett Wilson. Obviously
he's important. Otherwise you're just your thermy to the throw
in too, like Josh Reynolds every play, and then Sauce
Garner is obviously big for this particular matchup. But this
(38:32):
is getting a little rich for Cincinnati, who was like
two weeks ago, you know, catching two touchdowns. Now they're
favored by a touchdown over team. I get the Jets
are winn us, but I mean they've cut their three
and four or four. Both these teams are the same
against the spread record, so that one's getting a little
up there. Man, there's some bad football teams. This just
(38:55):
look back at this past weekend. There was like two
good games like Vikings Eagles and then the end of
the Giants. That game sucked for the entire game quarter
and then what was the other like really watchable game
like Packers Cardinals, Like that was pretty much it. There's
(39:17):
so many bad teams.
Speaker 1 (39:18):
The one o'clock window was one of the worst that
you'll that you'll ever see.
Speaker 3 (39:23):
Trying to sell like sell the witching iron. He was like, well, okay, well,
nothing's one possession game now. So a lot of the
injury stuff I have a lot more on Thursday. We'll
have some of our Action Network podcast that we record tomorrow.
I got to go through a lot of these matchups
and injuries. Ones that stuck out to me that I
just wrote down were the Jets depending on their injuries,
(39:48):
the Ravens that's obviously it's my plant the flag. Possibly
the Texans but need injury info. So there's a lot
of There's a lot of injury and quarterback info this week,
which makes a little tougher, especially this early in the week.
So there was no like slam dunk spots or games
that I do like your the Steelers call out that
(40:09):
was one, But other than that, now I got nothing.
Speaker 2 (40:12):
What about the Broncos and the Cowboys.
Speaker 1 (40:13):
These are two teams that I think were I think
they're both coming into this game overvalued. It's kind of
the opposite of Thursday Night Football, where you have two
by lows with the Vikings and the Chargers, and I
think those are two sell high teams that I think
I want to be on Denver, but I.
Speaker 3 (40:28):
Don't like betting Denver as a favorite, Like you need
bow Knicks to win by margin, and he's just not
playing well, like he'll have he has flashes, Like against
the pre event of the Giants, he came back. They
put up but they had zero points to three quarters
against the Giants defense at home. This is the team
that barely beat the Jets the week before. So I
(40:51):
just don't want to like points them. Am I running
to bet the Cowboys? I mean they were offense, Like
if you give me three and a half flat, I
could only look at the Cowboys just their offense is
playing so well. You got the much better quarterback, certain
can only take out one of those receivers. But I
mean the Cowboys defense is really bad. But there's no
reason why, Like bow Knicks is gonna get stops. He
(41:14):
stops himself, and like there's no reason why Dak and
this offense the way that they're rolling, can't put up
enough points to cover. But three is probably the right number,
so it should be an entertaining game. But I just
don't like blank points, especially you know, over a field
(41:34):
goal with with bow Knicks in that offense.
Speaker 1 (41:36):
Yeah, I think I might take the cow I think
the Cowboys are a perfect teaser leg for this week.
Speaker 2 (41:40):
I might just play it that way. Evan, thanks so much.
Speaker 1 (41:43):
That's gonna do it for today's episode special thanks to
David Payne and Gifford Gould, our producers. Phenomenal stuff by Stuckey,
and we will get a pick from Kendrick who's in Scotland.
We'll get a pick from her. On Thursday, we'll do
our official Week eight best Bets, unveiling this week's two
Kings and a Queen parlay. We'll see you next time
here on the Favorites presented by DraftKings, We're out.
Speaker 2 (42:18):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
Speaker 1 (42:22):
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred Gambler
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