The Favorites - NFL Week 18 Betting Preview - The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
six five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Moman of the Action Network. Today is
our Tuesday Week eighteen episode. We will break down the
entire slate of NFL games. We'll discuss our exact decision
our Simon says, we'll start to narrow down the options

(00:30):
for our five phaves to put into the last week
of The Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football
Pick Them contest. We went two and three this past week.
A bit of a theme this year. Live from our
Tommy John Holmes Studios. I'm joined as always buy my
co host, my companion, Mike and padre My BFF professional

(00:52):
better Simon Hunter Simon. I want to be the very
first to officially wish you and our audience and Matt
Mitchell and Gifford and Evan happy Happy New Year's December
thirty first, the end of twenty twenty four. We're going
to ring in twenty twenty five. How you doing, buddy? Hell?

(01:14):
Oh so I'm in.

Speaker 2 (01:15):
Happy New Year Chat.

Speaker 3 (01:16):
Yeah. I'm gonna try to see if I can give
up my favorite thing in the world. For a month
after the New Year's and that's chocolate. So I'm going
hard today on chocolate. People are going out getting drunk,
going partying. Me just eating tons and tons of chocolate.

Speaker 1 (01:33):
What kind? What are you eating?

Speaker 3 (01:35):
I get a ton of chocolate from England for Christmas,
so I go to town on.

Speaker 1 (01:39):
That chocolate with nougat, chocolate with nuts.

Speaker 3 (01:42):
Now you know me, I'm a milk chocolate guy. With
caramel's that's my go to.

Speaker 1 (01:47):
Salt it do you put any salt? Is it salted?

Speaker 3 (01:49):
It salted a little bit? I don't overdo it. I
mean that those chocolate pretzels I send you, those are
the that's the salted, perfect, the amount of chocolate. So yeah,
those should be out your doorstep any day.

Speaker 1 (01:59):
You those and you love giving those like you're so
excited to give those, and you'd like to tell me
how to eat them. I gotta let it all melt
in my mouth. I can't just chew on my fat.
Appreciated with your instructions on the gift giving h for Hanukah.
My younger son knows me so well. He got me

(02:21):
a cookbook, A thousand ways to cook nuts in your house.

Speaker 3 (02:26):
I swear to God, I wish you had opened up
and we've just been a joke of these nuts. That'd
have been great.

Speaker 1 (02:31):
I get that a lot here too. Listen. We joked
on Sunday night about how it's been an off year,
uh for us. You know, if you want to your
contrarian better, if you're fading the public, if you like
the bed home dogs, if you're looking for places where
you think the bookmakers are leaning into what they expect
to be group think from the public and shading lines,

(02:53):
shading favorites and tricky trap spots, this has not been
the year for you. It has not been the year
for us. Situations that have gone our way and Better's
ways for years have completely flipped, so much so that
when we had the Broncos at plus three and a
half on Saturday afternoon and lost on a late overtime

(03:15):
touchdown after both coaches had mismanaged the clock and the
Bengals kicker hit the upright on a thirty three yard
field goal to win the game and give us the cover,
it didn't even seem like it was a fluke. And
you know what, Simon, it wasn't. Because on Sunday night

(03:35):
we lost another game in which we had the dog
plus three and a half after a coach mismanaged the
clock and a miss field goal to give us the
cover went awry and a touchdown in ot was scored.

(03:55):
I like, I don't even I didn't even watch it.
I don't know about you. I went to bed. Then,
of course our two wins were booke ended the Chargers
on the road and the Lions on the road. So
you know that's the perfect example of the kind of
year has been, right.

Speaker 3 (04:11):
Yeah, it's it's sickening as someone who, like you just said,
has been doing this for almost half my life at
this point, and you know that Sunday game historically is
an easy, easy winner on that Atlanta team. Okay, the
favorites at that point, I believe, were what twelve and
three or eleven and three, whatever the number was, and

(04:33):
the public got really fat over Christmas break, and the
books usually slaughter them Sunday night they didn't. Okay, that's
fine by me, me and you. I thought our bet
on Detroit was absolutely dead. That bet never ever wins
the Monday night game after the public just has a
weekend like they did. Favorites are whatever at that point,

(04:54):
they're fifteen oh one straight up or fourteen oh one
straight up heading into that game, and you know the
guys I respect. I get a call on Sunday and
basically there's some guys I'm convinced their time travelers because
they just never bet.

Speaker 2 (05:06):
When they do bet, it's a winner.

Speaker 3 (05:09):
They came in heavy on the forty nine ers, Like
as soon as that happened, I'm like, oh, gay Me
and Chatter are going one to four. That's a dead bet.
You know, Brock Pretty comes out is just cruising. They're
putting up twenty one. We're again, it's just an insane game.
And they lost and they didn't cover, like the kicker
missed the kick, like all.

Speaker 2 (05:26):
These things happen.

Speaker 3 (05:28):
Pretty throws a pick and they get a walk off
touchdown or whatever it was, and it's just been brutal,
like someone that's done. It's a long time. I've never
never experiencing like this. We're betting dumb, bad lines and
that's the only thing winning for us right now. Like
that Detroit bet, Yeah, we basically bet it because we
were just like Detroit's better. They close out games, they

(05:48):
play hard. The forty nine ers suck. They're gonna choke
that game away and they somehow didn't. It just is
never this easy. So it's been again. I can't wait
for the season to be over because this is just such.

Speaker 2 (05:59):
A freak year.

Speaker 3 (06:00):
And yeah, guys, are you know guys braggingly having sixty
percent this season? It's like you, I'm sure this is
the one of every ten years that they win big
because this is just the most flukiest random year ever.

Speaker 1 (06:13):
Betting on favorites, well, let me give you some stats
from Evan Abrams to back that up. Favorites have now
gone seventy two percent straight up this year. That's the
most profitable season since two thousand and five, seventy nine
percent straight up since Week thirteen, the least profitable season
for underdogs on the money line since two thousand and five.

(06:36):
Teams getting at least sixty six percent of the spread bets.
We talk about the public all the time. When we
see and we track in the action app the percentage
of bets on one side that is the public, That
is an indication that you usually want to fade it.
This season fifty nine percent against the spread, those teams
are seventy three percent on the money line and thirty

(06:59):
eight and eight thirty six and eight eighty two percent
since week thirteen. Straight up home underdogs another bet we
love to play. It's been automatic for years. The wise
guys know it, the professionals know it. Home underdogs. There's
always value there because that means the team they're playing

(07:19):
is usually better. In the eyes of the public. It
gets shaded in their direction. This year forty three percent
against the spread, least profitable season since two thousand and five.
Here's one for you. Favorites of six or more twenty
nine and one straight up since week thirteen, the only
loss the Giants over the Colts. This past weekend. Favorites

(07:43):
are also sixty nine percent since week fifteen, sixty nine percent.
We see it. Our only wins the past few weeks
have been on favorites. Yeah, you know, the playoffs are
just around the corner. So the question is going to be,
and we love the playoffs, The question is going to be,
are we spooked by what's been happening? Are we gonna

(08:06):
revert to the patterns that we've played our entire lives?
Do we think things will go back to normal when
there are two good teams playing like I do think
a big part of the issue this year has been
a real decrease in quality play from quarterbacks and increase
in variance high variants plays from coaches going for it
for two points, going forward and fourth downs, and the

(08:29):
fact that kickoffs have given teams in extra ten yards
and good teams can take advantage of that. You know
we're gonna have to talk about that, but first you
and I may be far, far far out of it
in the contest. We are pros. We don't rest on

(08:49):
the last week of the season, do we.

Speaker 2 (08:54):
Now we have to make picks.

Speaker 1 (08:56):
Let's go to week eighteen. As a reminder, the Favorite
podcast is present by Bet three sixty five and now
new bed three sixty five. Customers get one hundred and
fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars,
sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars place
at bet for five dollars to get one hundred and
fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be
used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Waitever

(09:18):
the moment, It's never ordinary at Bet three six five
must be twenty one or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions
restrictions apply. All right, last notice, It's our final week

(09:40):
of the season for the favorites one hundred thousand dollars
Pro Football Pick Them contest forty thousand dollars first place
prize will soon be climbed. Tens of thousands more paid
out to the entire top ten. First place is currently
d Winsenburg with sixty one points two above every b else.

(10:01):
Can d Winsenberg stay the course and claim the forty
k extremely exciting race to the finish line. Good luck
to all of this year's participants. Matt Mitchell quickly in
the chat. Are we doing Saturday games this week? And
if so, do people have to get it in by
one pm? Sorry if this is later in the script
and I had missed it, But Sunday only Sunday only

(10:23):
this week? All right, Sunday only games this week? Just
so people know, Sunday only. Here's how I want to
lay this out. This show for listeners, Week eighteen is
so weird because of playoff scenarios, draft scenarios, people trying
to figure it out by googling playoff scenarios seventy five times.
What I want for this episode. This is your one
stop shop. I wanted to provide a few things all

(10:47):
in one place for sports fans. We are nothing if
not utility driven. I want this to be what we
know to be the most up to date information about
which teams are playing starters and who isn't. I've been
tracking that, We've all been tracking that playoff scenarios impacting

(11:07):
their decisions. So I want people to understand which teams
are playing for something or nothing, draft orders, and those
scenarios impacting team decisions, and then we'll give our standard
betting advice based on all of the above. We are
not ignoring Saturday games. Cleveland at Baltimore. Baltimore is a
seventeen and a half point favorite.

Speaker 3 (11:27):
Well, you want me to run through the list real
quick chat and break down all the scenarios for everyone?

Speaker 1 (11:30):
No, No, I'm going to go through them with each game
so people can have it as we get to the game.
They can include that in context for how we are
thinking about it from a betting point of view. That way,
they don't have to remember all right, let me. I
don't want to make people go back be like all right,
what was the scenario here? We'll give it to them
in context. So Cleveland Baltimore, Baltimore's a seventeen and a

(11:52):
half point favorite. Cleveland right now has the third pick.
They they're basically guaranteed a top five pick. I don't
think that's going to impact the play here. The Ravens
a loss would give Pittsburgh the AFC North. If Pittsburgh
beat Cincinnati, Baltimore would then go to the five seed

(12:14):
and have a road game against the Texans in Round one.
So I say this, they will play their best players
because they need to win this game. They don't want
to go on the road. They want to win the division,
and they want to be the three seed. That's my
take on the game and the scenario. Do you have
strong thoughts on the seventeen and a half right now?

Speaker 2 (12:37):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (12:38):
I would love to take Cleveland, but I won't do it.
Won't do it.

Speaker 2 (12:42):
Chad ain't gonna do it.

Speaker 1 (12:44):
Won't do it because we've been getting burned because historian
Thompson Robinson, who scored nine points and we waiting for
in two weeks are waiting for Jamis now.

Speaker 2 (12:55):
We've been burning.

Speaker 3 (12:55):
Even if there is two points of value on this,
trust the books right now, the books have just been
laying bad giving out bad numbers. And you know, I
don't know what it is. Look, we just talked about it.
Maybe it is because every team started at the thirty.
If you literally get one first down, all of a sudden,
you're at the forty forty five yard line, and that

(13:16):
that's a big deal, rather than you've been at the
twenty five thirty yard line. So you're right, that's that's
a big deal. It's been huge for the favorites. And
this is pretty simple. The Ravens, they they win this,
they win the division. And on the flip side, if
they win this, like we just talked about Steelers, they
play later that day. They might not even play their
starters because there's nothing to play for it at that

(13:37):
point and they're kind of locked in. So yeah, they
want they need our money, clearly, Chad, there, it's seventeen
and a half. They need our money. This is all
Ravens money. For the minute it opened, it was.

Speaker 2 (13:48):
All Ravens money.

Speaker 3 (13:49):
So I'm in no rush. It's a great number, obviously,
seventeen and a half. That's a huge key number, but
I just I won't do it right now.

Speaker 1 (13:58):
Teams getting less than thirty percent of the betting tickets,
so teams that the public has no interest in cover
the spread about sixty percent of the time if they
if they're off a game in which they scored single digits. Amazingly,
there are several teams that qualify for this system this week.

(14:25):
I think it's a tricky one because I think there's
so many bad teams and so much bad quarterback play.
There's a real disparity in the league right now. The
league has lived on parody for so many years. I
don't think there is parody in this league right now.
I don't know, if you're crazy.

Speaker 3 (14:43):
NFC is the most parody it's ever been.

Speaker 1 (14:46):
Yeah, but the bad are so bad. I don't mean
like individual divisions. We can cherry pick the teams, but
some of these bad teams are just so bad. The
quarterback play is so bad you cannot count on them

(15:06):
to do the fluky thing to do the right things
to put themselves in a position to win. You Like,
we've seen it week in and week out. There's some
really bad football teams out there, and the Browns have
zero quarterback plays there is.

Speaker 3 (15:20):
But I told you we're in the golden age of quarterbacks.
You're spoiled. Like when Baker Mayfield's thrown for five touchdowns
and Sam Darnold is throwing for three hundred and fifty
yards and three touchdowns and playing for the one seed,
You're spoiled.

Speaker 2 (15:32):
You sound spoiled.

Speaker 3 (15:33):
It's like, how many good quarterbacks do you want? Chad
On a good I mean, if I go back and
look at the mid two thousands, if we had four
or five good quarterbacks, we.

Speaker 2 (15:43):
Were living the dream.

Speaker 3 (15:43):
It was like, oh my god, we have Rogers, Peyton Manning,
Brady Phillip Rivers, like these guys are all great quarterbacks.
Now it's there's just so much good QB play that Yes,
when you see bad quarterbacks, it really stands out.

Speaker 2 (15:55):
And I agree the.

Speaker 3 (15:57):
Browns they don't have a legit started quarterback on their roster,
and it is interesting to me though they have not
gone back to Winston like in that game against Miami.
Why don't go back to Jamis he must be really
seriously hurt.

Speaker 1 (16:09):
Yeah, well, you know they listed him as having an
injured shoulder, and he was I think even inactive last week.
That's one question I'm sort of looking at this week.
Would they consider going back to him? Is he going
to practice? You know, I want to see how that
goes before we got deep into this game. Yeah, no
for me yet, Yeah, no, bet since he and Pittsburgh,

(16:30):
this one is you know, racked with all sorts of circumstances. Right,
we've leaned Cincy on Tuesday night when it was two
and a half. It's moved in the opposite direction. So
people are buying into the idea that what you said
on Sunday night? Could this be a get right game
for Russell Wilson? Do you back Mike Tomlin in the
raw ross spot where he's twenty two and sixteen straight

(16:54):
up as an underdog versus a divisional opponent, twenty six
ten and two against the spread as an underdog against
a divisional opponent. Will know something at this point, you know,
the NFL is like the WWE. Right, they have set
this up so it's all TV drama. The Steelers will

(17:15):
know their circumstances. They'll know if they have got a
shot to win the division or if they're gonna move down.
They do have some motivation. They could still move down
further in the playoff seedings if they lose this game.
So I don't think they're gonna come out and rest starters.
Even if the Ravens win the game.

Speaker 3 (17:38):
That's fair to me, that would be a mistake. I
think they should. But obviously I'm a degenerate gambler and
I have money invested already in the Bengals, and I
love the Bengals. Yeah, it's I guess it's a big
deal if they flip seedings. But at the end of
the day, it's like, you know, I get it, Like

(18:00):
they win to get to play Houston, that's a big deal, right,
Like you want to face them rather than having to face.

Speaker 1 (18:05):
You want to face like the Bravens.

Speaker 2 (18:09):
Right, right, right, So, no, you're right.

Speaker 3 (18:12):
I honestly love this one for since because it just
feels like this is the game. Since he wins, and
then you know it doesn't matter. They're not going to
make the playoffs regardless, and just the way Joe Joe
Brows been playing overcoming one of the worst defenses in
all football. It's really impressible, Like you just said it,
Like normally we hammer this and like tomlin spot, but
like so much unknown. I just don't know how motivated

(18:34):
they're going to be this exact scenario that. Yeah, I'm
still still on Cincy. Most professionals I've talked to at
this point they like, obviously this Pittsburgh team for what
we just talked about. It's it's a nice spot for
Tomlin to bounce back with an offense that you know
they've been struggling.

Speaker 2 (18:50):
But you know, we didn't really talk about it.

Speaker 3 (18:52):
The Ravens defense has been much better the second half
of the season. Yeah, the Chiefs obviously one of the
better defense in all football. You already know the Eagles
have a top three defense. So going from playing three
of the hardest defense in the football and out of
playing one of the worst defense in football, we expect
Pittsburgh to look good and be able to move the
ball here. But yeah, it's no.

Speaker 2 (19:10):
They moved it to one and a half now, I
can't help it.

Speaker 1 (19:12):
I got a bet since is this a Simon says,
do you worry that I'll go back to no?

Speaker 2 (19:18):
But I would grab her now if you want it.

Speaker 3 (19:19):
Like, like we just talked about, like we don't know
the incentive of this Pittsburgh team and what they're going
to do if the brown I mean the Ravens doing
I know, we just said they're going to try to
play it out. But that bye week, at this point
of season, especially you just played three games in eleven days,
that's a huge deal. Like that little bit of MIDI
bye week they can take right here before the playoffs,
that's that's a really big deal. So yeah, it's tough

(19:40):
to get a read on this one.

Speaker 1 (19:42):
Buffalo at New England. New England is a three point
underdog at home. It's come way down since it was
posted on Sunday night. It opened at five and a half.
It was within fifteen minutes, it was down to one
and a half. It moved back up to two and
a half. Now it's at three. The Patriots have the
number one pick in the NFL right now, and they're

(20:03):
in a glorious spot because they don't need to draft
a quarterback. So the optionality with that pick, you gotta
want to keep it. The assumption is that Josh Allen
will at least play a series to keep his starting
streak alive, which apparently Matt Mitchell says is important him
and Matt Mitchell, you know, was our Buffalo correspondent. Do

(20:27):
we think the Pats will play Drake May? Will they
sit him to give them the best chance to win
the number one pick? I don't really have a strong
opinion on this game.

Speaker 2 (20:36):
Yeah, pretty interesting.

Speaker 3 (20:37):
Bill is automatically locked in the two seeds. So this
is truly a meaningless game for them in.

Speaker 2 (20:42):
Every which way.

Speaker 3 (20:43):
And yeah, why would they not want to let New
England beat them?

Speaker 2 (20:48):
Right?

Speaker 3 (20:48):
Not not let them get the top draft pick. But
I do love Patriots fans being like, oh, this is great.
We can use this as leverage a trade down and
get more draft capitable as if they can draft good players.
It's like, we have no faith. I have zero faith
in their GM or head coach right now in New England.

Speaker 2 (21:04):
And I'm a psychopath too.

Speaker 3 (21:06):
Where it's like Drake May, he showed little flashes, but
nothing compared to Jayden Daniels or bow Nicks of like,
even Caleb Williams had moments where I was like, Okay,
this guy's a legit start in this league. Drake May,
to me, there was a lot of fifty to fifty
balls that he's gotten lucky on and he can scramble.

Speaker 2 (21:24):
I don't know.

Speaker 3 (21:24):
If this was a really good draft for quarterbacks, I
don't think they'd be hesitant to draft a quarterback. I
know that sounds crazy Patriots fans because I love Drake May,
but it's like, dude, they don't work that way in
the NFL.

Speaker 2 (21:36):
I mean, Chad just talked about it.

Speaker 3 (21:37):
He's sick of the qv play because there's only ten
guys that are like legit. That's how hard it is.
Like the odds of you drafting a legit guy is
just so rare. I'm just all about the Washington Even
the Eagles did it like we had Carson Wentz. We
took Hurts in the second round.

Speaker 2 (21:53):
Like I don't know.

Speaker 3 (21:55):
People get to attach to these quarterbacks and their egos,
and it's I think they're unique opportunity if they if
they break down they love this draft class of quarterback
and they have their one pick, I think they should
look into it. But yeah, Travis Hunter, whoever they want
to go with at that top pick, or if they
do want to trade down to get more draft capital
to draft more players, sure, go for it new them,

(22:16):
but I easily see them could upset he winning this game. Right,
Like Mitch Trubisky, Chad knows we've been through it. He's
he can be good for a quarter, but we know
that eventually he's gonna throw a pick. So if Drake
made is in this game, I think it could be competitive.
I wouldn't hesitate to take the plus three. But yeah,
it's another game where it's a lot of we don't

(22:36):
know who's playing yet this point. I haven't bet it,
waiting to get more info on it. The only reason
I bet the three is just because I'm shocked they
went up to three. I thought this would be a
pick them. So that just shows how bad this this
Patriots team is. There basically a home dog to a
team of backups in Buffalo.

Speaker 1 (22:52):
It's very rare that anyone in the NFL is going
to not suffer from the sunk cost fallacy. Right, you've
got a quarterback, You've drafted a quarterback. You want to
invest in that quarterback. You want to grow that quarterback.
You don't want to feel like the person who wasted
the year to pick the year before. You want to
realize that ROI the very few teams have done it.

(23:17):
The most recent one I can think of is the
Cardinals had drafted Josh Rosen top ten and the next
year drafted Kyler Murray. Right, they immediately were like, this
guy sucks. We can improve our lot, no brainer, don't
worry about what we've done in the past. You don't
get teams drafting quarterbacks unless you're the Bears, and you
draft a quarterback in the top five every three years.

(23:39):
And that's not because they're smart enough to walk away.
They're just bad enough to choose the room.

Speaker 3 (23:44):
They are smart enough, though, like you're saying they're not.
That was I mean, think how crazy the fans were.
They're like, no, we like Justin. We want to keep Justin.
It's like, god damn. People just get to attach to
these quarterbacks. They just they love potential. And again, the
Vikings and the reason I was down on them, they
punted on their first round pick. They got Sam Donald.
Then they drafted you know, JJ, like that was a

(24:07):
big deal. And now they're in a weird spot where
it's like, are they the Vikings gonna trade JJ and
just keep Sam Donald? Like their dream for JJ McCarthy
would to be what Sam Donald just did this season, right,
That's it's as good as it's gonna get. So that's
what I mean though, It's just you got to just
keep firing on these quarterbacks and you just have to
hit one unicorn and your franchise is set for fifteen years.

(24:30):
So it's like, I get a Patriots fans, your attached
to Drake May even though he's done nothing. You're the
worst team in football this year. You can blame your coach,
you can blame your lack of talent. Is that gonna
change next year? I'm already seeing they're rejecting Vrabel to
bring back that coach for one more one more year
in May. Like, they're just a terribly run organization, and
I think we're all starting to figure that out that
it was just really Belichick and Tom and nothing up top.

(24:53):
It was just blatant luck by Craft that he got
this incredible quarterback in the seventh, sixth round and he
got check instead of going to the Jets, he came there.
And it just that's how football is, right, you can
walk yourself into dumb luck. And right now it just
feels like this they're the most dysfunctional organization and I
don't know if you love it, but I love it
like I hated that Patriots run and they're cocky, know

(25:14):
what all fans? And now they are just the bottom
of the barrel. And enjoy your number one pick Patriots.

Speaker 1 (25:20):
Quick Recap for Week seventeen in the Favorites one hundred
thousand dollars Pro Football to Come contest. Congratulations to Rodney
Valentine are week seventeen first place winner. He went five
and oh got with any yard of the tiebreaker. He
takes home our one thousand dollars a weekly prize. As always,
Matt Mitchell was selected the Producer's Cup award for the
entry that finished dead fucking last.

Speaker 3 (25:38):
Have you about the loads loser? He's a Louis about
He still kids dry.

Speaker 1 (25:50):
This week's Producer's Cup goes to m M Haus who
went one five missed the tiebreaker by almost four hundred yrards.
M M has please email our producer at podcast at
Action Network dot com to claim me prize. Houston at Tennessee.
This one has been on a freaking roller coaster. Yeah,
Texans cannot change their draft.

Speaker 2 (26:10):
Locked in at four, Locked.

Speaker 1 (26:11):
In at four, They're the worst record of the division winners.
Titans currently own the number two spot in the draft.
They're desperate for a quarterback. This one huge moves up
and down. Opened it seven thirty five PM Sunday night
with Tennessee as a one point underdog. By the time

(26:33):
you and I we do the show seven thirty to
about eight eight fifteen. By the time we were on
the air midway through the show, Tennessee was a four
and a half point favorite. Now it's back down to
Tennessee minus one. No upside for the Texans, locked in
at the four. Like I said, why is this line
Simon moving so much?

Speaker 2 (26:54):
Simon says, give me Tennessee plus one.

Speaker 3 (26:56):
When Simon says do it, we do it.

Speaker 1 (27:01):
Minus one.

Speaker 3 (27:02):
Beth Svive it is yeah, okay, yeah, I don't get it.

Speaker 2 (27:06):
I do not get it at all.

Speaker 3 (27:07):
It's all public money too, Like I'm looking the Action
app and it's all public just hammering this Texan side
and we kind of talk about it. Like these NFL teams,
you saw it a lot, especially in that Giants locker
room after that game. They do not care about draft position.
Like these guys just want to win, and a lot
of them are playing for their jobs and playing for

(27:28):
their futures and say what you about the Tennessee being
terrible and them losing and not covering all these games
in a row, they at least been trying and being
competitive in these games. Like a lot of these games
are close games, Like, it's not them just getting rolled
by thirty forty points, right, it's a lot of times
I'm coming back losing by a touchdown or just failing
that last drive. And me and you have talked a

(27:50):
ton about this Texans team, about how bad they are
mainly because of injuries, right, And they were a top
heavy team coming of the year. They were stars of
the scrub type of team, right. And now in this game,
all the stars will be out. All the reasons they've
been even be able to keep this thing together is
going to be out for this Houston team. On the
flip side, I just could see Tennessee messing up their

(28:12):
draft position and wanting to win this game. And they're
desperate for a win. I mean they've gone months without
a win like that.

Speaker 2 (28:18):
That just wears on you.

Speaker 3 (28:20):
And we've already talked about how it's an anomaly them
against the spread, right, two and fourteen against the spread this.

Speaker 1 (28:25):
Season against the spread ever.

Speaker 3 (28:30):
Ever, and again, I know people don't give us crudest,
but like we've avoided them this whole time. We literally
have avoided them this whole time.

Speaker 1 (28:38):
But we deserve credit for our It's.

Speaker 3 (28:42):
Been hard, honestly though, it's been hard because every week
the books are giving us a free two to three points,
no joke, like they're just begging for Tennessee money. And
every week it just was not coming through. And I
know some pros have just been chasing this for well
over a month on this Tennessee team.

Speaker 2 (28:56):
So yeah, I I I just.

Speaker 3 (29:00):
Think Tennessee is in a good spot here playing against
a bunch of backups that you know, I don't think
he still is going to care at all about this game.
On the flip side, I think Tennessee is going to
care about getting this last win. Callahan just before the
end of the season, try to feel good about themselves.
And we've see it all the time teams like this
that I've a horrible year, nothing to play for.

Speaker 2 (29:20):
They kind of steal one of these games the end
of the year.

Speaker 3 (29:22):
So yeah, it makes me I've seen a normal year.
It feel good knowing the public's heavy on our road
favorite in Houston, but it has not been the case
this season. But I still I still like Tennessee at
this number. I do think it goes up by kickoff.

Speaker 1 (29:35):
Very interesting. Finally pulling the trigger on the Tennessee Titans.
I got to tell you, I didn't see that one coming.
I wanted to go in. I've hated them, Yeah, I
want Look, you walk me back from the last week,
like I was itching to bet the Titans, and you're like, no, no, no, no.

Speaker 3 (29:51):
You're right.

Speaker 1 (29:51):
We do deserve credit for not falling prey and betting
the Titans all season long. Maybe no credit for betting
the Panthers sas long, but we totally deserve credit for
not betting the Titans when we absolutely when that number
was bloated every single week. Good for us, Simon, Simon,
A new year is dawning. Now is the time to

(30:13):
make our resolutions, choose a path to live better in
twenty twenty five. For me, it's about living authentically, and
to me, there's nothing more authentic than being comfortable, especially downstairs.
And with a special sale for our listeners, you can
share my resolution to make Tommy John a big part

(30:34):
of my new year with thousands of authentic five star reviews.
Everyone can see Tommy John will leave you comfortable, confident,
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person for the long year ahead. Simon, why will you
be giving the gift of Tommy John in the year twenty
twenty five?

Speaker 2 (30:53):
Cause chat, it's the gift that last.

Speaker 1 (30:55):
That's right. Right now, you can shop Tommy John dot
com slash favorites for the holidays and get twenty five
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Tommy John dot com slash favorites. That's Tommy John dot
com slash favorites. Yesterday, yesterday, I made my younger son
give me a hug. He was being mean to me,

(31:16):
and I'm like, let's just hug. There's no reason to
be mean. And when we hugged, he uh said, wow,
this shirt is so soft? Is this Tommy John? And
I was wearing a quilted Tommy John pullover. We buy it,
we like it. Jacksonville at Indy, Anthony Richardson missed last

(31:41):
week and he's a five point favorite here with backspasms.
If he is healthy, the cults say he will play.
There's no word yet on if he is healthy. Obviously, like,
there's not a ton on the line here. The Jags
have the fifth pick overall draft position, not likely to
impact any decisions about who will play. They've got the
quarterback they say they want, They've got some costs, They're

(32:03):
not walking away from Trevor Lawrence. Kind of a normal
handicap to me. A team that won't stop trying in
the Jags versus a team that feels like culturally in house,
it is in big trouble. I don't know if you've
been keeping up with Pat McAfee versus the Indianapolis Colts franchise,

(32:25):
but he's been railing on this team and now they
are fighting back. And they were just so bad. They
had so many chances to win that game, staying contention
against the Giants defense could not stop Drew Locke. So
are the Jags way overvalued because they've been competitive? Are
the Colts undervalued? After last week's games? The numbers moved

(32:48):
down a little bit. It's pro Jo's game for what
it's worth. Tickets on the Jags, money on the Colts.

Speaker 3 (32:58):
Yeah, brutal, brutal a year for the Colts.

Speaker 2 (33:00):
I saw the part of my take.

Speaker 3 (33:01):
Boys had a crazy statu about Ballard and basically since
he's taken over, every team has won this division twice.
So the Texas have won it twice, Jacksonville's won it twice,
Tennessee's won it twice. They've won a zero times since
he's taken over. Come on, Yeah, it's pretty insane that
Ers has let this man hang around.

Speaker 1 (33:20):
At this and everyone always talks about what a brilliant
GM he is.

Speaker 3 (33:26):
He honestly isn't some aspect where, like, you know, the
offensive line and some of the trafficks he hit on
were great, but he just obviously clearly never figured out
the quarterback situation. And every year he's just been throwing
darts and it's the wrong dart he just throws to
the So, yeah, another game of I want to take
Jacksonville this They've they've been playing, you know, with their

(33:49):
backups where you want to call it, for months.

Speaker 2 (33:51):
They're used to it.

Speaker 3 (33:53):
The Colts any guy with the even semi injured coming
out of last week, why would they play in this
game like they're that? How does that not just suck
your soul out? You put in so much work. I mean,
they're interviewing guys who've been there a long time in
the locker room and they're just like, it's the same
old every season.

Speaker 2 (34:09):
This is how it goes, and like that that.

Speaker 3 (34:12):
To me, like we just talked about that's the worst
loss of the season, right, You're playing for your, yeah,
your lives to make the playoffs and you lose to
a team that literally hadn't won a home game all
season and you lose to a quarterback and Drew Lock.
That just looked like an all pro against your secondary,
like tour you guys up.

Speaker 1 (34:28):
Every single time they got close and had a chance.
They needed one stop, one stop multiple times to get
back in that game. If they do well, they drive
down the field, they score, they're taking the lead. They
could not freaking do it.

Speaker 3 (34:45):
No, And like again, the game was summed up perfectly.
The announcer said the Colts had four drives and they
had six points. Drew Lock had three drives, he had
three touchdowns. Just insane to think about that, that type
of thing. That's why we love betting though. That's you know,
that was the one big dog that we just talked
about one outright, So, yeah, the Colts are just so bad.

(35:05):
This feels like way too much respect to this team,
especially at four and a half. Call me a sucker
for this Jackson. I just love the way they've been
playing down the stretcher. I'll take mac Jones Brian Thompson
Junior at plus four and a half.

Speaker 1 (35:17):
I agree with you, Like I kept thinking, like we're
seeing the Jacks compete every single week. This was a
great stat from Evan mac Jones. With Doug Peterson three
and three against the spread. He was something like, you know,
fifteen and thirty against the spread with the Patriots. So

(35:40):
clearly Doug Peterson is getting something out of mac Jones
that Bill Belichick wasn't getting. But he's got swagger and
he doesn't deserve it. But he's making bad throws that
Brian Thomas Junior continues to make him look good on him, like,
I don't know, I.

Speaker 3 (35:55):
Got a better one for you. He's got the same
amount of wins this year and whatever it is six
starts as Drake May has for the whole season.

Speaker 2 (36:04):
Suck on that. In New England.

Speaker 1 (36:09):
Washington at Dallas. This one opened Dallas plus five and
shortly after the Commanders won on Sunday night, moved down
to three. Now it's back up to four. Look there's
still playoff seating incentive for the Commanders, right, If they
do win, they're locked in at the sixth seed, they

(36:32):
get the Bucks or the Rams. They gotta travel, but
they get the Bucks of the Rams. If they lose,
they're the seventh seed. They're playing the Eagles. I mean
that's incentive to me, do you want to play the
Eagles or do you want to play the Bucks or
the Rams? So to me, this should be a totally
normal handicap.

Speaker 3 (36:53):
Even more so, doesn't feel like this is the type
of game that Washington just absolutely rolls the Cowboys. Like
the Cowboys that think we realized they've had their Super
Bowl against that Tampa team in that primetime game.

Speaker 2 (37:05):
And you know, as.

Speaker 3 (37:06):
Bad as I looked against the Eagles, I don't know
how much better they're going to play against Washington. Right.

Speaker 2 (37:11):
These guys all have their trips booked, they're ready to go.
You know.

Speaker 3 (37:15):
Michael Parsons comments after the game were just madly insane,
Like it just seems to go a team that's kind
of lost their mind at this point. The Cowboys, Washington,
I feel like you just nailed it, right. This is
a game they really want to win because it really
defines who they're going to be playing in this playoffs,
and of course they want to come to Philly. Like
you don't want to say you don't want to face
the same same team three times? Right we all know that.

(37:36):
So yeah, the fact that this has moved the way
it's moved just makes total sense to me, Like the
pros and the public to me, will be on Washington.
I could see this keep going up, Like, to me,
this should be six by kickoff. So the fact you
can still get four and a half on Washington, I
don't hate that number.

Speaker 2 (37:51):
I don't hate that value.

Speaker 1 (37:52):
Get four at bat three sixty five. This is one
of those stats and system that we mentioned, Oh, play Cowboys,
Play the Cowboys, right, Teams getting less than thirty percent
of the tickets cover the spread sixty percent of the
time if they're off a game in which they scored

(38:14):
single digits. Again, it's a it's a weird stat because
it basically tells you to favor the worst teams. Right, yeah,
we're talking. We're talking about the Cowboys. This week we saw.

Speaker 2 (38:29):
The hot big of a deal was the lu CD though, right, Yeah,
like not how was a big deal?

Speaker 1 (38:35):
I will say this, Cooper Rush, he chucks it man,
he's willing to play, He'll throw it into the fire.
He still makes some good throws. Brandon Cooks stepped in nicely,
and we knew the Eagles are kryptonite for Cooper Rush.
His worst games as a backup have come against the Eagles.
And I don't necessarily think he's going to mail it in.

(38:58):
He's a backup quarterback who wants to do as well
as he can. And I don't think Mike McCarthy's going
to nail it in. Nail it in because I think
he is still trying to win the games for next year.
If you if I had to bet on if he
will be the coach, I would say he will be
next year. Seems like the sentiment is that the tide
is turning on that so I don't it's to me,

(39:19):
it's not an automatic with Washington. If it gets higher,
I might just want to play the Cowboys.

Speaker 2 (39:24):
That's fair.

Speaker 1 (39:25):
So we'll put him on the list because why not.
How much worse can it get for us New Orleans
of Tampa Bay. You teased wanting to take the Saints
on Sunday Night. It's moved down half a point. This
is a normal handicapp to me. The Bucks need to
win to get in. Any year we are taking the Saints,
but this is not any year. My biggest worry is

(39:47):
that the Saints don't have any playmakers. I mean, they
truly are a JV team.

Speaker 3 (39:52):
Cam Jordan.

Speaker 1 (39:55):
Five year old kna You know, I like to play
this game with my kid. You know, jersey retirement, Hall
of Fame team Hall of Fame statue, Cam Jordan, Where
do you think he qualifies?

Speaker 3 (40:12):
Like?

Speaker 1 (40:12):
He's one of the best players defensively the Saints I have
ever had.

Speaker 2 (40:15):
Yeah, he leads them in sacks, right.

Speaker 1 (40:17):
Pillar in the community, always a Walter Payton Man of
the Year Award nominee. Does he get a statue? Does
he get his jersey retired? Or is he in the Saints'
Ring of honor?

Speaker 3 (40:31):
Gotta retire jersey if you're the Saints. He's the all
time leader in sacks. That's it's just insane to think
with that organization. This guy is basically a de tackle
that is just dominated across what ten fifteen years, I
mean not long he's been in the league now.

Speaker 1 (40:48):
But I think seventy five years. I think he was
an original member of the of the NFL.

Speaker 3 (40:55):
Even that game last week, like they needed a couple
of big plays on a couple of Creek third and
he felt like he was always the one that made
the big play for them. Yeah, obviously it didn't matter
because they're just a terrible team. But yeah, this number
is crazy. Ch had at one point it was up
to fourteen and a half, the Saints number, so obviously
professional when has come in at this point bought it back.
It's at thirteen and a half. Now, I won't do it.

(41:18):
I won't take it at a bad number. It if
it gets back up to fourteen fourteen and a half,
I'm happy to give it out and take it again.
But I'm not chasing this number after it already moved,
and no one would be safe, no one would be
shocked if Tampa just absolutely rolls on Tampa. That Bucky
Irving Baker Mike Evans combo is just one right now, terrifying. Yeah,

(41:39):
so you just nailed it. Like the Saints have nothing
offensively that can keep up with this Bucks team. We'd
basically need a really really bad Baker game, which, honestly,
at fourteen and a half, I feel way comfortable betting
on that because it can happen, like we've seen the
time and time again, he can't turn the ball over,
give short field to this Saints team. But at thirteen
and a half, it's like, I'm not chasing in that

(42:00):
bad number. Give me a better number here, sportsbooks.

Speaker 1 (42:03):
Baker has fifteen picks. That's one behind Kirk Cousins. But
he's also on pace to earn two point five million
dollars in incentives for individual stats. Evan has a great
story up in Action network dot com. There's five different
stats that if he finishes top five in the NFC

(42:25):
or top ten in the league across completion, percentage, yards, touchdowns,
et cetera, he gets five hundred grand for each one,
and he's well within the range for all of them
right now. So I got a feeling Baker's going to
go out there and he's going to sling it, which
could spell doom right for the Saints.

Speaker 3 (42:48):
I saw a crazy article though, just about how Tom
Brady left New England. Look what happened to them. He
left Tampa and they've still been able to win the
division now and they could win it again this year,
two times, which is just insane to think about, Like
you lose arguably the best player in football history. One
team went the way they should have right, the completely
fell apart. I've just been in despair for the last

(43:10):
five six years. Baker the ultimate shavior of Tampa. Like
truly incredible. This man went from being scout team D
line with Carolina to now potentially back to back divisional
winner of the South. It's really remarkable what Baker's done.

Speaker 1 (43:24):
Someone needs to do this story. I mean to call
some my NFL writer buddies and get them on this,
just to go back to my old days with signing stories.
But what exactly happened with Baker and Sean McVay in
Los Angeles in that last month of the season a
couple of years ago, right, because he points that as

(43:44):
being like a pivotal moment in his career where he
learned so much about playing quarterback and he's been brilliant
since then, and like that was at the end of
a long road of journeyman type stuff. I think that
was the last stop before Tampa if I'm not mistaken,
But he says that's where you learn to play quarterback.
I'd love to be in the room there. That's a

(44:05):
great story. I gotta get Wickersham on that call. Wicker Sham,
have him do that, Carolina at Atlanta. Atlanta's ain't a
half point favorite, Simon, It's gone up from seven and
a half. I mean, we're gonna do it, you know.
The the Falcons have to win and the Bucks need

(44:25):
to lose for them to get into the playoffs. Nobody's
gonna know what's happening in this game because they're both
playing at the same time. Here's the scenario. The Bucks
are crushing the Saints at halftime, the Falcons are demoralized,
the Panthers find a way to cover. I don't hate it.
Get to bet the Panthers one last time.

Speaker 3 (44:46):
So I was so distraught I couldn't sleep after that
Atlanta loss. On Sunday night against watchingon, I end upuying
a flame thrower, no joke, no way. Yeah, that's how
much his teams affect in my life.

Speaker 2 (44:56):
This Atlanta team.

Speaker 1 (44:56):
What are you going to do with the flame thrower? Uh?

Speaker 2 (44:59):
Give rid of black I don't want to. I don't
want to slip on any black ice.

Speaker 3 (45:03):
So I'm just gonna whip out the flame thrower through
the driveway off so I can walk out to my car.

Speaker 1 (45:07):
But isn't that terrible for the concrete? Doesn't it create
cracks and stuff?

Speaker 2 (45:12):
I don't think so. But it's legal as well.

Speaker 3 (45:14):
It's considered a farm tool in America, so God bless America.
You can buy a flamethrower people online if you want
America made.

Speaker 1 (45:21):
What were you just on Amazon? You're like, find me
a flame thrower?

Speaker 3 (45:24):
No, I was just going through all the motions. I
think I was playing some World War two game. I
was like, why do I not own a flamethrower? I
own everything else? And it was pretty simple to get
get a flamethrow here in America. I can't help myself.
I'm betting Panthers at plus eight and a half. I've
already bet their money line. I love this as an
upset for this this Carolina team. This is going to
feel like an actual playoff game for Panix in this

(45:48):
Atlanta team. And I can just see them getting tight
and no one's be back on this Carolina team after
them just getting rolled and blown out.

Speaker 2 (45:54):
But we've seen that the Panthers. They bounced back from
those embarrassing losses.

Speaker 3 (45:58):
And you know, Bryce Young obviously didn't play well last week.

Speaker 2 (46:02):
I like him to bounce back.

Speaker 3 (46:03):
So yeah, I, as people can tell, I just love
this Panthers team, especially now that's plus eight and a half.
Can't quit them one last time. Chad, give me the
Panthers in twenty twenty four.

Speaker 1 (46:13):
I feel like we have to, just because you got
to complete the circle. And you knows as smart as
we've been about Tennessee, we've we've been right about Carolina
the second half of the year. Obviously, not last week.

Speaker 3 (46:31):
That was the first loss though we were five and
zero betting them. Yea, we were in a nice streak
with them. That was our first loss.

Speaker 1 (46:36):
I got. I got no issues going back to Carolina, Obviously,
I said, I feel like we're going to have to
do it. I'm glad we're doing it.

Speaker 3 (46:43):
Plus three forty on the money line shocked the world.

Speaker 1 (46:47):
All right, Well, we know they'll be in the money
line underdog round robin and probably in the bed. Three
sixty five boosted parlay Chicago at Green Bay. So the
Packers can only move up from the seventh seed and
facing the Eagles if the Commanders lose to Dallas. So
they're both playing at one at one pm, so we
could have another scoreboard watching situation like we have with Atlanta.

(47:09):
A couple stats because I can't decide if we assume
this is a normal handicap or not. I haven't seen
anything from Laflor to indicate which way they're going to go.
My sense is they're at least going to start their starters,
see how the game is going, and if there's no chance,
maybe they pull them. So there's a couple systems that
the Bears fit. The Bears have a winning percentage of

(47:34):
less than twenty five percent. They are a bad team
in this scenario going against a good team that since
Week five has been covering by more than five points
per game, So that is the Packers. The team in
the bad team in the scenario covers fifty nine percent
of the time. Plus the Bears getting less than thirty
percent of the tickets. I mean they're getting faded by

(47:56):
the public. They just scored single digits three points against
the Sea how at home, you know, so they cover
sixty percent of the time in this scenario. Two systems
both north of you know, one hundred and fifty close
to two hundred you know games as a sample set.

(48:17):
But I'm not backing the Bears here.

Speaker 2 (48:19):
No all right, I'm I'm all in on them. I
love them. I bet their money line as well for
this one.

Speaker 3 (48:24):
I'm just Jesus Christ, I'm a sucker for these Week
eighteen games in the sense that I just love these
dogs in these exact spots of what you just talked about.
Everyone is totally out on this Bears team. The only
unfortunate part was this was ten and this numbers now
moved down to nine, nine and a half of most books.

Speaker 2 (48:39):
I was really hoping we'd get the ten.

Speaker 1 (48:41):
It'll go back up. I guarantee it'll go back up
before this game is kicking off.

Speaker 3 (48:47):
I think you just touched on the key though, is
what Laflour's gonna say during the week. I think that
as is gonna dictate this line. Like if Laflooryd's basically
tell us people like, Okay, we'll pull starters in the
second half or whatever. If you know Commanders are winning
big against Dallas, whatever it may be, I think there
is value here to take advantage of. Then. I mean,
I remember when these teams played last time. I know

(49:08):
that feels like a lifetime ago. Because of the coaching
change and how bad the Bears have been down the
stretch here. But you know, the Bears, they should have
beat them, they should have upset them. And it seems
like this Bears team actually matches up pretty well against
this Green Bay team.

Speaker 1 (49:20):
So they don't, No, they don't. The Bears do not
know how to play defense.

Speaker 3 (49:26):
They held Seattle to sixth coven on in.

Speaker 1 (49:29):
The rain and a shitty night in Chicago on Thursday.
Those Thursday night games. You can't take anything defensively on
those games. And by the way, the Bears still don't
know how to score in the first half. They're going
to need to score thirty points in the second half
to cover this spread. I swear to God because because
what's gonna happen is lafleur. If anything, I would say,

(49:51):
let's take the Packers first half and then and let's
take the Bears second half.

Speaker 3 (49:56):
We can do that. But yeah, for our pick contest
obviously doesn't work, now, you know, I just these are
the type of games that just the Bears win. This
a meaningless game that affects their draft position. That's another reason.
It's just like you just said, they're just everything they
do they do to torture their fan base. And this
feels like another game. But you wouldn't be happy if
they beat Green Bay. I mean when the last time

(50:17):
you guys beat Green Bay?

Speaker 1 (50:19):
I don't care. It's not even a rivalry shit, So.

Speaker 3 (50:22):
Yeah, I don't know. It's it's really about the number. Yeah,
I'm not rushing to bet this one because Chad's right,
this could easily go back up depending what quotes come
out this weekend. We've already missed the ten, so I'm
not going to rush that bet at but it's definitely
a game on my radar of a dog.

Speaker 1 (50:36):
I like bears, haven't won a road game on a
Sunday in three full calendar years, twenty straight games. The
last QP to do it in this spot Nick Foles
December of twenty one. There you go. He's the only guy.
He's the only quarterback who can make us both happy Giants.

Speaker 3 (50:53):
Willy, you guys, didn't you go up to New England
and beat New England on the road on a Thursday
night game or something like that?

Speaker 1 (51:01):
I said, Sunday.

Speaker 3 (51:02):
Oh fuck, that's a good disclaimer.

Speaker 1 (51:04):
Sunday Okay, Yeah, New England and Philly, Philly is this
is priced as if Philly is benching. Everyone has moved
from four and a half to three. Giants, you know,
had the number one pick, and now it's over. If
they win, they could actually fall out of the top five.
My week, neighbors, I think wants to go off in
this game. And this is one of those games where

(51:26):
you back the team with a win percentage of twenty
five percent or less. So the Giants are just stupid
enough to keep trying to win here, and.

Speaker 3 (51:34):
I'm pissed the move. This was gonna be my signment,
says play. I loved it. It was four when we
talked about Sunday, and like you just said, it's now,
it's down to three. At most books still would better now.
I still think it's gonna keep dropping. Obviously, Terry McKee
looked good for his four passes. He came in and
played for the Eagles. But you expect the Giants to
keep playing hard with the Eagles. This is a vacation week.

(51:55):
I know they're gonna their backups in there. We're gonna
be trying, but you know, just looking at this matchup,
it just feels like another game that as the game
goes along, Eagles will keep pulling out guys right, putting
special teamers in the play linebacker, safety, or corner, like
just giving them reps in time that they never get
in the regular season. And the flip side of the Giants.

(52:15):
I totally get why people want to fade them. Right
after Drew Lock's best game, you expect it to drop off, right,
You expect them they'll just lay down and have a
bad game here. But I think Chad's right, like this
just feels like another team that could script their draft position,
come out, play hard. You know, they don't care, like
they just they want to win. They don't care about
what the draft. They don't even if they be on
this team next year, let alone. So yeah, just all

(52:37):
about the number. Feels like this is still too high
plus three. The value just is all on this Giants team.

Speaker 1 (52:42):
At this point, Chargers are five point favorites against five
and a half point favorites against the Raiders. The Chargers
kind of know what they need. When they play Steelers win,
Chargers will be a six seed. If the Steelers lose,
then the Chargers have to win to be the fifth seed.
At five, they get the Texans at six, they get
the rate events. Do we take the Chargers now as
a hedge in case the Steelers lose and this line

(53:05):
goes up because of motivation. Normally you'd want to fade
the favorite against the bad team.

Speaker 3 (53:14):
But.

Speaker 1 (53:17):
We like playing the Chargers. They don't stop trying, especially
if they have a little bit of motivation. And I
think we're at the top of the market on the Raiders.

Speaker 2 (53:27):
Yeah, And it's interesting.

Speaker 3 (53:28):
A lot of pros I've talked to Chad, they actually
really like the Raiders here. They like this r they do.

Speaker 1 (53:32):
I know why, because the pros all season long they
like the shitty teams that are underdogs and that's why
they've been fucking losing.

Speaker 3 (53:38):
Not even that, I think it's it's more about how
they've been playing down the stretch here, Like they've been
really competitive against bad teams. And I think I agree
with you and the fact that this Chargers team is
such a huge step.

Speaker 2 (53:50):
Above those teams they've been being up on.

Speaker 3 (53:52):
Like this is a legit good team that you know,
Vegas is gonna have an O'Connell making mistakes, They're not
going to get the ball back right. This Chargers team
is going to dominate them if they do make the
stupid mistakes. So nothing changed for me. I'm still with
you on the Chargers team still like at a five
and a half. You know, I get where the pros
are coming from. The Vegas has been playing better, but this,

(54:12):
this Chargers team just feels like they're.

Speaker 2 (54:13):
Hitting on every level right now.

Speaker 3 (54:15):
Like they just seem like so in control offensively, defensively,
it feels like they found their identity as well. Like
even Khalil Mack and Bosa have been playing really well
down the stretchers. So yeah, Chargers team is probably a
little underrated here at this point. Chad, You're right, this
probably could get up to six and a half seven
by kickoff if they are playing all out for this game.

Speaker 1 (54:35):
Yeah, totally. Okay, are you ready four my executive decision?

Speaker 2 (54:44):
Do it?

Speaker 1 (54:45):
I'm going with a road favorite, the Seattle Seahawks minus
three against the Los Angeles Rams. The choice between the
unthinkable and the impossible?

Speaker 3 (54:59):
Are you Heavyrwners? Thanks for your executive decision.

Speaker 1 (55:03):
The Rams actually have something to play for. If they win,
they get the three seed. They play Green Bay or
Washington at home. If they lose, they played Minnesota Detroit
at home. But Sean McVay set on his radio show
yesterday this is how deep we go that he's leaning
towards resting his starters. He even said he was excited
to see how Jimmy Garoppolo could do. He's excited to

(55:26):
see how Blake Korham could do with more carries. Pretty
good indication to me that the Rams are going to
be resting the Seahawks while they beat the Bears. Are
still one of those teams where they're getting less than
thirty percent of the public ticket of the betting tickets,
so the public is fading them, and they're coming off
a game in which they scored single digits. And then

(55:50):
there's this Gino is due four million dollars in incentive
if he throws for another one hundred and eighty six
yards and he finishes with a completion percentage of sixty
nine point seventy five. He's at seventy point two. So

(56:10):
for each of those he gets two million dollars. He's
going to come into this game. He's gonna want to
fire away. The Rams are going to be resting their starters.
Give me the Seahawks and Gino going for four Mili
minus three.

Speaker 2 (56:29):
I don't hate it.

Speaker 3 (56:30):
And the only scary part is, yes, Seattle is not
playing for a single thing, right, Gino is the only
one really sounds like he's motive here.

Speaker 2 (56:36):
I'm so there's other guys that have.

Speaker 3 (56:37):
Money incentives, but yeah, the biggest thing to me is
just the fact that the Rams had a pretty bad
offensive line. Now they're putting their backups in with Jimmy Garoppolo. Like,
to me, that's that makes you really fired up to
back the Seattle team. That they do have a good
pass rush, and like we just said, they're playing their

(56:57):
starters so that they're gonna playing their So I agree
with you.

Speaker 2 (57:02):
I like Seattle in the.

Speaker 3 (57:03):
Spot, especially the fact that we're getting against a Ramps.
Seem that there are another team that's top heavy, right
there are Stars and scrub team, and they've drafted well
now like these last couple of years, they have drafted
really well, and they have some really good young talent.
I've read that none of those kids are going to
play either. Like McVeigh is basically going to set all
these guys. Try to give them this by a week
so huge deal. Like Chad just said, if you can

(57:23):
get them minus three, that's that's really a great number
for the Seattle team.

Speaker 1 (57:29):
I'm glad We're in an agreement on that. I also
like that they've got a first year coach. They're going
to want to finish as strong as they can. They
want to win as many games as they can. A
lot of these guys are going to be back next year,
so it is going to matter to them how they
finish the season, how they show up on tape. Miami
at the New York Jets. The Jets are plus one,
two is still questionable. Miami is only in if Denver

(57:51):
loses to case. I'm not sure. I'm worried about the
quarterback status here, to be honest, Like we were willing
to bet Huntley, you know, back in the day in
the playoffs against good teams, and he played well against
the Browns. Eighty percent of his passes were completed twenty
two to twenty six to twenty five in a touch like,

(58:11):
what are the Jets plan for here? It makes no
sense to me. There is money coming in on the
Jets right now. Why are professional betters week after week?
I know you to bet the Jets. Sauce Gardner and
Dj Reeder already talking about guys who quit. I know
we want to back the teams after a blowout, But

(58:32):
what are we doing here? This is just silly.

Speaker 2 (58:36):
What if it's our guy, Tyra Taylor?

Speaker 1 (58:37):
Though you think it will be, I don't know.

Speaker 3 (58:43):
I've the stuff I read. It seems like the hate
is mutual between Rogers and ownership, and I would honestly
love for them to sit him so he can't get
his five hundredth passing touchdown. To Adam I mean to
Adams really wants Rogers, wants to do it with them.
I would love if they sat him, and they're just like, Nah,

(59:04):
you don't deserve it. I saw another really funny meme
and it was basically it was four quarterbacks played in
that Bills game. Three of them all had touchdowns passing.
The only one that did it was Aaron Rodgers. Yeah,
I mean Mitch u Bisky, tyrod Taylor just outshining Rogers.
So yeah, it's it's all bad in New York. And

(59:26):
you're right, Chet, I'm a sucker like these their professionals.
Immediately when I saw this number, I was like, oh,
I can't wait to bet the Jets, but time I've
had to sit on it. I don't want to put
any money any more money on this Jets team. Or
even involve myself in a game with them. So I
get if you're on Miami's side. It's the chalk the
public has been winning on these road favorites. Like, I'm
not going to try to talk anyone off bet in Miami.

(59:48):
I just my instincts. I can't do it, and I
just I hate the Jets at this point, I do
not want to put any more money in this team.

Speaker 2 (59:54):
So this is the game I'm gonna happily pass on.

Speaker 1 (59:56):
Wow, I'm surprised to hear that the dolph and seemed
like such the obvious play.

Speaker 3 (01:00:02):
The Dolphins suck. They got lucky as hell that the
Cleveland just laid down and died last week. So I
give you coming from though. Like as far as vibes go, Yeah,
Miami is way better right now than this Jets team.

Speaker 1 (01:00:17):
Sempster's scoring Arizona, congrats to anyone like Evan Abrams who
bet the Cardinals is underdogs before the brock Purty injury
last night. Yeah, questionable status like to me given the
injury status, uh, and the Cards now with three point favorites,
this is a game, Like, we got plenty of games

(01:00:37):
we can choose from. For five we got two more
games more to discuss. I don't have a strong opinion
on this game.

Speaker 3 (01:00:43):
Yeah, it's looking like the pastor not's gonna be the quarterback, right,
So pretty pretty insane. Now that Brock purty reinjured that
elbow he had surgery on what was a year and
a half ago.

Speaker 1 (01:00:55):
He said it wasn't the elbow. Everyone has been saying
that it feels okay, nerves. I haven't seen the latest updates.
That was what I saw before we came on the
air today, so you know what, what's new. Supposed to
get some MRI today. But he was saying yesterday that
it was more nerves than elbow.

Speaker 3 (01:01:13):
That's why I thought was elbow though, because that is
all connected to your your hands and your fingers where
he couldn't grip the ball apparently, and it's like that
that's usually it could be something frequent, it's a back
problem or like these doctors are saying that could be
from his elbow surgery. So maybe he's just trying to
say face. We know obviously, you know, big off season
for Purdy. He's trying to get a contract right now,

(01:01:34):
and you know, I was looking like he's basically gonna
lock it up in that game if they felt like
if they had won that game and he didn't have
those true those two interceptions, it felt like they probably
would end up giveting the deal. But that that second pick,
they showed John Lynch up in the box of just
pure disgusted.

Speaker 1 (01:01:52):
Oh yeah, you could see the money draining from his
bank account as he threw those picks and Kyle Shanahan
going nuts, going he's so mad. He's so mad that
he's got to cover his face with the play sheet
when he's talking into the mic after that first overthrow
interception that Purty threw, Like you can't imagine what he

(01:02:15):
was saying. I haven't seen the press conference to see
if anyone asked what he was saying, because it was
so obvious and such a great piece of television video
to see him just losing and then John Lynch losing
his mind after the second one. Those were not good
throws and like he was brilliant, but those were money
losing throws last night.

Speaker 3 (01:02:35):
But I mean, I saw a lot of the tweets
about it, like this has been the problem with Brock Purdy.
When his team is behind, he is horrible statistically, Like
he has I believe when he's been trailing in his career,
he has three touchdowns to seven interceptions. Like, he's just
struggled really bad in those exact scenarios where he's coming
from behind, need to push the ball downfield and the
defense knows he's having to push the ball downfield, and

(01:02:56):
he struggled. So my immaily thought was like Sam Darnod
agent just texting a bunch of money bags to John
Lynch like that. That's me my first initial thought. So, yeah,
in this game, it's all about where the number goes, Chad,
if this gets up to three and a half, how
do we not fail? Fade Kyler Murray Like this is

(01:03:19):
the exact game he does not win. He's just he's
been so disappointed Kyler Murray. And you know, I am
tempteded to forty nineers here, but you just said it's
like I'm on a rush about this one. There's plenty
of other games I'm happy to bet where we have
more infos. So once again, if it gets them three
and a half, four, I almost like you gonna be
the forty nine ers at this point, I'm not betting it.

Speaker 1 (01:03:40):
Casey at Denver. Denver's a ten point favorite. I just
keep feeling like this number is so high. And the Chiefs,
the Chiefs are a one loss team who have been
playing second stringers in various positions all season long. I

(01:04:02):
know they're gonna play Carson Wentz. But if anybody can
make Carson Wentz a serviceable quarterback and put him in
the position to make the exact right play at the
exact right time three or four times in the game,
isn't it Andy Reid against like bow Knicks, who I
have a great stat for you, great stat. But let's

(01:04:23):
be serious about bo Nicks. He's been throwing picks like
he's just like he just gives the ball away the
last four or five games, including against the Bengals. So
why am I so confident in a Denver team is
a ten point favorite. I know they got to win,
but feels like a lot.

Speaker 3 (01:04:44):
Yeah, and this is going to be part of my
little money line round Robin brother. Like the Chiefs plus
three ninety, you know, Bears plus three ten, and the capitolf.

Speaker 2 (01:04:56):
Of Carolina plus three forty.

Speaker 3 (01:04:58):
I just I think all these numbers too big, too much,
you respect, and that any of these teams could pull
an upset on these teams, and you know the public
perception of the Chiefs will just roll over and die
here and that they want this team to win in Denver, right,
they'd much rather have the Denver make the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (01:05:16):
How does that help them in any way?

Speaker 3 (01:05:18):
Denver is going to play the Bills like they don't care.
They're trying to win this game. Especially Carson Wentz, this
is a big mum for him to show off that
he's still got it and he's hoping to get picked
up by another team. And we've seen that in these
last weeks, right. I mean the one that really jumps
out to me will always be the teams that start
the backup quarterback and they could come out and just

(01:05:38):
like the light it up and they can get a
contract that way. And this feels like this exact scenario
for Carson Wentz and I agree. You know, the fear
is this Chiefs offensive line is really really bad, even
the starters, that their backups are going to be absolutely brutal,
and denverroll be able to attack that. I think there's
gonna be ways for Rain to redaccounter that, like he's
no dummy. If he needs to keep another tight ending

(01:05:58):
and keep their running back in there. He'll do that happily.
And we've seen with Carson Wentz that he can have
a game where he can look like an all pro,
or he can go the other way. He can just
be absolutely terrible from the get go right and we're
burned right away. But at ten points, we have a
lot of built in insurance on that, like we're it's
already built in the fact that this is all backups
and Carson Wentz can struggle in these tepe scenarios. So

(01:06:20):
you're right, ten point being a ten point favorite for
a rookie way way too many points, way too much respect.

Speaker 2 (01:06:26):
And I think the.

Speaker 3 (01:06:29):
Not the books, but the public is really like, there's
no chance this Chiefs team is gonna win or cover
this number. Now I've seen some like smart books have
taken some really smart money all this Chiefs team, and
they even against it, have moved it up. So they
moved it from nine to nine and a half up
to ten. So a little nerve wracking because it's basically
them taking a stand here on this Denver team. But

(01:06:50):
I do love this spot for this Chiefs team, even
with Carson Wentz.

Speaker 1 (01:06:54):
So let me lay the stat on you ready Bonix
has closed as a favorite seven times and teen career starts.
Thank you, Evan seven and oh straight up and against
the spread, covering by twelve point one points per game,
the lone remaining QB undefeated against the spread as a
favorite this year.

Speaker 3 (01:07:13):
Yeah, that is in insane set seven and zero. That's crazy.

Speaker 1 (01:07:16):
It's crazy, right because he was.

Speaker 3 (01:07:19):
So dominant on the as a road as a road
you know, bet, Like that's why we loved him yes
week is he had basically covered every week as a
road road dog. So that's that's that's an insane run
he's been on.

Speaker 1 (01:07:31):
All good streaks come to an end, and I believe
this could be the week.

Speaker 2 (01:07:34):
Let's go.

Speaker 1 (01:07:34):
That's Minnesota at Detroit.

Speaker 3 (01:07:38):
I love this freaking team. I love the coaches, I
love the players, I love everything about it. Man, we
are so freaking hardened. Even when she doesn't go the
way we want it to, maybe you find a way.

Speaker 1 (01:07:47):
Look, I love the NFL. They're so fucking smart. Like
they made us all wait until Monday to get the schedule.
Then they've got it all worked out, so no team
knows like their situation except for one or two until
they all play at the same time. It's just it's
so good, and then they cap it with the game.

(01:08:10):
When they made the schedule, they're hopeing like these late
season division games will have a scenario like this Minnesota Detroit,
Detroit's two and a half point favorite. I'm a little
surprised this hasn't moved in the Vikings direction after last
night because everything the Niners did, which is everything the
Bills did a couple of weeks earlier, which is everything

(01:08:32):
the Packers did against the Lions the week before, that
is what the Vikings can do. Move the ball with
ease against a beaten up and beaten down defense. The
total has moved since last night from fifty two and
a half to fifty seven and a half, highest total

(01:08:52):
in a game since twenty twenty one. I still like Detroit.

Speaker 3 (01:08:58):
Now let's go from Let's start from the top. Though
this is basically before the season started, me and Chad
talk about our favorite team to win this division.

Speaker 2 (01:09:07):
We both like Detroit.

Speaker 3 (01:09:08):
I already talked about I like parlaye these divisional winners together.
So if you are someone that followed that and you
have Detroit paired with the Chiefs and the Eagles or whoever,
This is like the dream scenario for hedging, like if
you can get especially if you can find a plus three,
I don't know if it's going to get back to it.
You might have to unfortunately buy half a point to
get up to that plus three. But we already talked

(01:09:30):
about this one. This feels like whoever's the possession last
wins this game Like this, both defenses we know can
be moved against, like they're the Vikings have been a
team that have excelled this season because of takeaways. Right,
That's kind of been the thing that the saving grace
for that defense that you know just doesn't have that
much talent, right that we knew that coming to the season,
but between scheme and takeaways, they've been able to really

(01:09:53):
piece it together defensively. On Detroit side, Oh my god, Chad,
like they just have nothing nothing.

Speaker 1 (01:10:01):
It's it's so sad to watch, Like the sideline shots
of Aaron Glenn, the poor guy, Like he's just he's
looking down at his play sheet and he's got those
fun glasses on they're always a different color, and he's
just he's looking for answers. He's yelling into his headset.
There's just there's nothing they can do, like literally nothing.

(01:10:24):
They just they're the Saints' offense, only you know, like
they just don't have the players, and they desperately desperately
need to win this game. They desperately desperately need to
buy to get some guys some rest, to get some
guys healthy so they can get two or three guys
back by the time they're playing in the playoffs. I

(01:10:44):
don't know how they're going to stop the Vikings, and
I don't know.

Speaker 3 (01:10:48):
Who's betting Detroit. Honestly, after watching that game, I said,
I wanted to be on Detroit. When it was two
and a half, I was like, that feels like the
right number for them. But after watching that defenseive seeing
how their linebackers play, they have no speed. They have
no speed in the middle of the field. That means
you can attack the middle of the field at any
time you want, and we know that's what O'Connor wants
to do here.

Speaker 1 (01:11:07):
So Yeah, Sam Donaldi ist Sam Donald has been brilliant
throwing between the numbers this year, and.

Speaker 3 (01:11:15):
It's interesting looking at the early money here in the
action app. It's it's basically all Detroit, which is honestly surprising. Yeah,
the fact that this team is on a short week
and they're already devastated all those like we talked about
all those injuries. You know, I think they were talking
about the broadcast last night. They had one of the
earliest bye weeks in the whole season. So it's like

(01:11:37):
not a good matchup for a spot for this team.
And you know, maybe it's a human all of it
to me, but I just I want the Vikings to
get this one seed at this point. Like as much
as I love this Detroit team, and I've already said
I'm on record about it, like Detroit the Bills heading
to this Super Bowl run. If I had to pick
a seam outside the Eagles, these are the teams I

(01:11:59):
want to win the Super Bowl. I love Detroit's fan base,
Bill's fan base, two best fan bases. No one has
been through more hell in those two fans. I mean,
guess the Browns. But like they broke the curse last year, right,
they had one playoff win in fifty years. They won
two playoff games last year. It was all lined up
for Detroit and they just got screwed, Like they got
screwed by injury bug. And you know, man Campbell he's

(01:12:20):
gonna be aggressive, he's gonna keep doing his fourth down thing,
and you know Ben Johnson is just in his back
calling these great plays in these really unique situations. It's
gonna catch them. Like they they of all the teams
in the playoffs, they need the most amount of luck
because of how bad their defense is. And they basically
if golf has an off day, they're dead. That's the
honest truth. Like they, he is so dependent on right now.

(01:12:41):
Obviously he's not an MVP discussion, but I mean he
should be. The way he's carried this team down the
stretch with all their injuries they've had, it's just been remarkable.
So it's pain for him. It's pain for painful to
do right now, Chad. But I do love the Vikings.
I think it's very telling. The books are holding strong
right now two and a half, So I'm not gonna
rush to bed Vikings, cause I do think maybe we'll

(01:13:03):
get back to a three with all this public lovel
in Detroit. But man, it's in a normal year, a
year where the books are right and laying good numbers
and people doubt the dog, this would be one of
my bigger bets. I love this spot so much for Minnesota.
I just think offensively they're actually better to me in
my opinion.

Speaker 2 (01:13:21):
I think defensively they.

Speaker 3 (01:13:22):
Still have the guys who are healthy enough to.

Speaker 2 (01:13:25):
Make game changing plays.

Speaker 3 (01:13:26):
For Detroit, they just don't have the piece of defensively
to make the game changing plays like I know they
have right now. It was other safety that's leading the
league in interceptions. I forget who it is.

Speaker 1 (01:13:35):
Kirby Joseph.

Speaker 3 (01:13:35):
Yeah, yeah, incredible season. But it's like, I don't know,
there's ways they can get around that on the Vikings team.
So yeah, I can't believe it, but I do love
this Vikings here.

Speaker 1 (01:13:46):
Plus two and a half, Well, you need miracles like
Kirby Joseph last night with two picks against brock Perdity.
Otherwise I don't know if they win that game. It's
funny you mentioned we talked about that was one of
our five picks, and in the middle of the game,
and you said you thought it was a dead bet.
We're one and four. I had kind of forgotten. I'd

(01:14:07):
forgotten I bet the Lions minus three. I forgot we
had a minus three half in the contest. Well, I
was just I was actually just looking ahead and trying
to see, all right, has the number moved on the
Vikings yet? Because I was surprised with how badly the
lines defense was playing, thinking about the number not moving

(01:14:29):
because I was looking to sort of play the vikings
before the number got out of control. It hasn't and
it hasn't budged. No, And it's it's interesting to hear
you talk about the vikings because rationally, you're right. Emotionally,
I just want this Lion's team to win so bad.

(01:14:50):
Even as a Bears fan. I love Dan Campbell, I
love the story. I feel like with Ben Jonson, everyone
knows he's gone. This is this is a great shot
for them. I want them to get healthy. They deserve it.
They deserve it for the way they pull See.

Speaker 3 (01:15:05):
This is probably my favorite team to watch. I do
believe this is my favorite team to watch this season.

Speaker 2 (01:15:08):
Every game.

Speaker 1 (01:15:09):
Excite love this team, love their attitude. I want I
don't know if I can bet this game because I
want them to win so badly.

Speaker 2 (01:15:18):
I don't want to throw the vikings in a teaser
then get up to eight and a half.

Speaker 1 (01:15:20):
That's a nice number, all right, I'm gonna do that,
Like I can't. I just don't want to bet against.

Speaker 3 (01:15:25):
You can throw chargers in to win, outright, throw the
Vikings in the cover eight and a half.

Speaker 2 (01:15:28):
That's a nice teezer.

Speaker 1 (01:15:30):
Okay, that's what I'll do. That's that makes me feel better. Campbell,
by the way, sixty four against the spreads as a
head coach. That is the best for any head coach
with a minimum twenty games in the Super Bowl era.

Speaker 3 (01:15:46):
I listen, Man, just say that I'm proud of you.
It would be a massive understatement composure to medication.

Speaker 1 (01:15:52):
And how's this? The Lions the past four years seventy
percent against the spread. Don't forget Dan Campbell like a
short stint as the Dolphins head coach. That's why his
number isn't the same as the Lions. The best three
year against the spread stretch since the sixteen to eighteen
New England Patriots, and as of now, the best four

(01:16:16):
year stretch for any team in the Super Bowl era.

Speaker 3 (01:16:21):
And correct me if I'm wrong, Evan, but I have
this amazing memory of me and Chad Base We're all
in on this Detroit team and might have been twenty
twenty one. I was Man Campbell's first year and they're
zero for nine playing Minnesota. We had them in our
money line round robin. I believe it was fourth down,
last play of the game. Jared Goff throws that touchdown
against the Vikings to get their first win of the
season for Detroit, And it's kind of full circle moment,

(01:16:44):
like both these teams now three years later, fourteen and two.
First time in history we've had two teams at fourteen
and two playing for their division and the loser will
be It's insane to think it'll be fourteen and three
and be the fifth seed. It's just I love this
matchup so much. This is this is truly a historical
game we're seeing here, all right.

Speaker 1 (01:17:05):
Well, my exec decision on Seattle at minus three, since
I had mentioned it because I move numbers and it's
freakish how often it happens, is now up to four.

Speaker 3 (01:17:15):
Charlotte A sharp, Sharp Sharp.

Speaker 1 (01:17:18):
Chad Melman Sharp. As a reminder, The Favorite podcast is
presented by Bet three sixty five and now new Bet
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(01:18:03):
with our next episode of The Favorites. On the Action
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best bets of the regular season. Download us from Spotify,
Apple Pods wherever you get your podse rate review, subscribing
with as five stars say whatever you want feedback is
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(01:18:29):
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The Favorites - NFL Week 18 Betting Preview

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