March 27, 2025 • 38 mins
The second weekend of March Madness is here, with the Sweet Sixteen tipping off tonight. Joining his Action Network colleagues Chad Millman and Simon Hunter is college basketball betting expert Stuckey, fresh off recording his own podcast Big Bets On Campus. Together the trio discusses best bets for Thursday and Friday, how the parity of elite programs is impacting college hoops, how to approach the Elite 8, and so much more.
For those looking to join Chad, Simon and Stuckey for our FREE podcast live event in beautiful Chicago this Saturday for the Elite 8, don't forget to RSVP now by clicking here. #Volume #herd
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Mellman of the Action Network. I'm live
from my Tommy John home studio, and I'm joined as
always by my co host, my companion, Mike cam Padre
my BFF Professional Better Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Hello, Simon, Chad.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
How are we doing?
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Brother? We're back in the.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Swing four days of college basketball. You and I have
an incredibly special guest coming on the show. He is
the og Action. He is the heartbeat of the Action Network.
(00:55):
The first person I ever had dinner with before we
even started the company. I had dinner with this guy.
He's going to be joining us in Chicago this weekend
for our live show, the most Obsessive College Basketball Better.
I've ever met a man who has so loved college
(01:18):
basketball for so long that his one name, Moniker, is
derived from his then favorite college basketball player. The co
host of our Big Bets on Campus podcast, The Hat
says it all. A man who needs only one name.
(01:40):
Welcome back, Stucky.
Speaker 3 (01:46):
Going on, Cheb. Thanks for the intro. I'm excited to
get back to some basketball action after this couple day lull,
but I'm also very very excited for Chicago on Saturday.
I love it. It's your bottom dollar. You have some
(02:08):
longtime Action followers and followers of myself that I'm friendly
with that I'm going to see, and then I'm most
excited besides seeing you guys, of course, which is always nice,
but I'm most excited to meet new followers and meet
new subscribers and listeners to the podcast. Always have such
(02:29):
a good time at these events, and in the past
we've done them, you know, in Vegas and in the
New York City area, where we also have uh, pretty
loyal followers, but we've never done anything in Chicago, and
I I love Chicago and the people from there, so
I'm just so excited to meet some of the people
(02:51):
that I haven't had a chance to in in the past.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
H Stucky, my Dad's going to be there, and oh really, yeah,
well I'm from Chicago. I don't know who else from
my family will show up. Remains to be seen. I've
gotten non committals from a few people, but I know
I know that my dad will be there. And for
those people who aren't aware at this point of what
(03:18):
Stucky is talking about, another reminder that everybody can officially
RSVP for our free Favorites live show event in Chicago.
This will be for the Elite eight March Madness Games Sunday,
March twenty ninth. Sorry, Saturday, March twenty ninth. That Joson
Weed great great spot. Every time I've told someone we're
(03:39):
doing an event at Joson Weed who's from Chicago and
doesn't live there anymore, they're like, oh man, I love
Joson Weed. Free event, free drinks, free live show was
Stucky three man Weave Simon myself Matt Mitchell has an entire.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
SUV full of swag to give away.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
Just RSVP to reserve your spot by clicking the link
in this episode's description, or you can just Google.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Favorites Live Event Chicago. Be sure to RSVP.
Speaker 1 (04:07):
Must RSVP to get in, but then you get in,
you get free drinks, free event, free chatting with the crew,
plus a mini live show where Stock is gonna regale
us with stories and ideas on what to do with
Elite eight. As a reminder of this favorite podcast is
presented by BET three sixty five, which is now live
in my native state of Illinois.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
New BET three sixty five.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
Customers, including those in Illinois, get one hundred and fifty
dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign
up using promo code favorites, deposit ten dollars, place a
bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty
dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
Bet three sixty five, especially in Illinois, must be twenty
one or older in president Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen or
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms, conditioned
restrictions apply. I will say these events are always amazing.
(05:11):
Whether we've done them outside New York, Vegas, Philly in
the winter, they're great. I hope a lot of people
are able to make it and hang out with us.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
All right.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
One thing I want to say, though, is tiny at
these events, Like people that you guys that know me,
know that I will try to talk to as many
people as I can, and I can well talk to
anyone about anything at any time. But if you see
me and you've been a follower, or you just want
to ask questions or anything, please don't hesitate to come
(05:40):
up to me or anyone. You will never bother me.
So whether you want to tell me your story, ask
a question, or just share your thoughts or talk some ball,
don't hesitate to come up to me. I'm the easiest
person to approach.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
What is this are you, Timothy shallow May? We're at
an event for our company. Were the whole Some people
tell me like they were.
Speaker 3 (06:03):
I'm telling you people don't tweets from people like, oh,
you look like you were busy. I didn't want to
live up to you. And this is like after I
leave the city, right, It's like I kind of wanted
to go up to you, but you were talking to
someone else. It's like, no, just not bother bother away.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
Father, Stucky, don't come up to me. I'm a little
bit more refined and precious. I'm not as interested in
talking to people, but definitely talk to Stucky. You can
talk to my dad, you can talk to Simon Uh,
definitely stuck.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
You'll be there for the duration. Just talk to Stucky.
This is a Stucky moment.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
Speaking of Stucky, right, I'm enamored of the Maryland game.
I thought the the the Yukon Florida game was outstanding.
I actually loved the Duke game even though it was
a blowout, because I just love watching Duke.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
I think they're so good and I want to see excellence.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
So many criticisms of this tournament right now, What have
you learned from this tournament?
Speaker 2 (07:00):
What are your biggest takeaways so far?
Speaker 3 (07:04):
Yeah, I mean, I'm I'm learning a lot just in
college basketball in general the past couple of years, college
football too, Like even this past year, like I've I've
started to redoing everything that I've ever done in college basketball.
College basketball is always my best sport. I kind of
just was coasting for a while doing what I have
(07:24):
always done. And it's a new world. And you know
now with college football it's also a new world. I
spend so much time. I used to never spend any
time in college football. Just used to before action. I
used to just lose money be in college football. I
loved it, played football. It would just donate because in
the summer, I would spend all my time preparing for
(07:45):
college basketball. There's so many teams, it's so much work,
and then you know October November, so I was just donating.
I was spending my time doing football, NFL and college basketball. Well,
now with college football, I spend so much time there.
I'm already behind in college basketball. It's harder, the market's
more efficient, and it's just this new world. Like you
have teams that hit completely hit the reset button. In
(08:08):
the past, it was and there's a lot of similarities
of college football too. In the past. It's like we
got they're replacing these two starters right, a lot easier
to project from a year to year basis on what
a team is going to be. Now it's completely different.
The portal, it's crazy. We already have over one thousand.
We have a thousand, more than a thousand players already
in the portal. But I think what we're starting to
(08:29):
see is just the separation from the top and the
bottom is growing. And I think that's going to happen
in college football as well. I do think that there's
gonna eventually be more parody at the top. So like
your top twenty and this is true in college football
as well. You're going to have more stronger teams in
(08:50):
that mix. But the gap between the top and the
bottom is just going to continue to grow. And we've
seen this the past two years whereund just might be
chalkier moving forward. I do think it's eventually, you know,
over time, there's going to be exceptions that the tournament
will be better from the second and third weekends as
(09:10):
a result. But I mean, we have four leagues that's
it represented this year. That's the fewest ever, and we
only have one from the ACC which is Duke. So
I do think that this is still small Sampit size.
This is still a new world. But I do think
that this what we've seen so far as a microcosm
(09:31):
of what we can expect to see in the college
sports landscape moving forward and just have to adjust and
get used to it. But I think it's just a
growing gap.
Speaker 4 (09:43):
And everyone's about what have you done lately?
Speaker 3 (09:45):
Right?
Speaker 4 (09:45):
We just had sixteen seeds lose not even two three
years ago, So it's just funny how quickly before like
it's so boring. Now it's like it's just year to year, right,
But I do think it's interesting to see what and
I always going to do with college sports, And yeah,
you online have been trolling these Michigan State fans and
Tom Mizzo fans. Is that just you don't trust his
team and you're just taking shots to them because it's
(10:06):
funny or are you just like I hate bet this team.
No matter what, I'm gonna fade them in this upcoming round.
Speaker 3 (10:11):
No, I just haven't fun with Michigan State fans. There's
also what I always forget on Twitter. A lot of
times when I'm tweeting about certain teams that I don't like,
I'm usually trolling like a couple of friends, like personal friends.
But I've always had fun with Michigan State fans, usually
in college football. But no, I don't trust I don't
(10:32):
think Michigan State has national title upside, mainly because I
just don't trust their offense, Like they don't have the
perimeter shooting. Their half court offense can get very stagnant. Now,
Jayce Richardson, if he's on, he's a freshman. He had
a tough game last game, but he stepped up in
the final two minutes. If he's on, that really raises
their ceiling. They do have a high floor like is
(10:54):
it was a great coach. They do play tremendous defense,
and they're great on the glass. No, I don't hate
any team. I used to hate Duke because my dad
liked Duke growing up. That's kind of it dwindled over
the years, and I don't This Duke team isn't that hateable,
which is kind of disappointing. And I like Shire, which
(11:15):
is also disappointing. I wish there was I wish I
hated Duke more, but no, I don't. I don't hate
any team. So I actually kind of like Michigan State
this week against Old miss but I'm you know, it's
the Sweet sixteen. You're not going to find a ton
of edge or value. I'm mainly looking at matchups at
this time of the year to try and find any
(11:36):
edge or what to bet. But I do show a
little value in Michigan State. The problem is, I don't
know if I should bet at pregame because Michigan State's
games are they go according almost to a script. Every time.
They're like, they'll be down at the half, they'll have
a sluggish first half, and one of their biggest strengths
is their death and they will wear teams down. We
(11:58):
saw it all throughout the conference play. In the second half,
they will just overwhelm teams with their depth, their athleticism,
their rebounding, and they just go on runs in the
second half. So there's a good chance that they come
out slow, they're down, and then I think Michigan State's
gonna be worth a look from a live betting perspective.
That's probably my favorite live betting look of the first round,
(12:22):
like it, excuse me, of the tournament so far. And
I made the mistake. I bet in New Mexico plus
seven and a half on Sunday, and I didn't listen
to myself. I didn't have any first half. I didn't
bet Michigan State live and it was just one of
their games. Again, even go back to the first round
against Bryant. I mean, it was close game in the
first half and then their depth just overran Briant in
(12:44):
the second half. So if I had to bet the
game pre game, I would bet Michigan State, but I'm
gonna look for a better opportunity live. I don't like
Michigan State. Sure could they win it all? Yeah, I
mean it's one basketball game throughout I think they're gonna
need the They're gonna need the other seed kind of
break their way, Like you want to root if you're
Michigan Zape and you want to root for Michigan so
you don't have to play Auburn. But I think that
(13:05):
they're just their ceiling in a half court on offense
might limit them compared to a Duke for example, and
some of the in f Florida, so that that's where
I think it's going to hold them back. But I
had a ton of respect for azz Oh. I love
Michigan State fans. Part of what when I get to
have that interaction people is they have loyal sometimes bordering
on psychotic fan basis, which I love in Michigan State
(13:27):
fits the build there for sure.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
I agree with you about Duke. I know Simon has
always been a Duke fan. I have found Duke to
be so much more likable since the very end of
the Coach k era and with the John Shire era.
I love him as a coach. I think he's relatable.
(13:53):
I love the way he interacts with his players. I
like watching this team. I set it off the top.
I think this team super fun to watch play basketball
because they're so good and they're competitive, and Cooper Flag
is just a straight baller. But they got so many
other guys who can play at such an elite level.
(14:14):
I don't even care that like they have an advantage
because they get every single elite recruit looking at their
school and they're loaded with nal money. As we look
at the weekend Thursday Friday, knowing that a lot of people,
you know, the early games are not going to be
something they can activate against off of this show. Give
(14:38):
me your roundup for Thursday and Friday.
Speaker 3 (14:43):
Which yeah, I mean quickly on the early games. I
do think BYU has a little bit of value. That's
that's the number that I show the most value on.
Their offense is electric. I mean the total one seventy
five and it's on pace to be a high since
nineteen ninety five. In the tournament, their offense is electric.
Now their defense, Alabama's defense has issues, but so does BYU's.
(15:03):
They're just they lack athleticism in certain positions. So what
do they do. They pack it in kind, They'll play
some zone. They dare you to shoot the three. So
it's scary. They're going up against Alabama. Who's gonna who
shoots a lot of threes and can get hot. Not
as good as the shooting team as they were last year,
but they can still go nuclear. They've be shooting thirty
eight percent in tever of first So it's a scary
one because BYU if Alabama will have days where they
(15:24):
just go sixteen to thirty eight, sixteen to thirty five
from three, and then YU might not be able to
keep up. But you gotta remember these games are in
weird venues right well, the Kentucky Tennessee or dou who
used to That's that's in Indianapolis in a cut in
half football stadium. So are the it's the shooting going
to be just a little off. And in that case, BYU, hey,
(15:47):
you're encouraging Alabama to fire away from three. That might
work in your favor. So I think BYU has some
value Maryland as well. A little worry about Maryland's depth.
They got to stay out of foul trouble, sure, because
I mean, Florida is so deep they can come at
you in waves. I don't think Maryland could do some
of the things that Yukon did from an offensive perspective,
but I do show a little value in that number,
(16:09):
although like if they're you play it up and down
fast game against Florida and let them get in transition,
which meryln will do. Maryland's transition he's really good, but
that's gonna be an up tempo game. That's dangerous. One
of the things you kind of going for. They do
a lot of off ball stuff which can give Florida problems,
and they slow the game down to a halt. Maryland's
starting five to crab five. They could play with anyone
(16:30):
but got and that like the extended TV timeouts this
time of year, like they help, but they got to
stay out of foul trouble. Usually do a good job
in that department, but Blarida's got a ton of size,
will come at you in a fast paced game. But yeah,
if I had a bet aside in that game as
of right now, I would look at Maryland duke Arizona.
I just I don't know how Arizona's going to consistently
(16:51):
score in that game. The wild Card's Caleb Love If
he has games, he's capable of it, and he's done
it on the stage and he was tremendous against the Oregon.
They need him in the half court and Kenny duplicate
what he just did against the elite Duke defense. I
don't know, but they're going to need him because what
is Arizona want to do. They want to get out
(17:13):
in transition and they want to score at the rim.
Both are essentially impossible against Duke, who's like fifth percent
tile and rim defense allowed, fifth percent tile and transition
allowed and then above ninety inefficiency. So you can't score
at the riom on Duke, he can't score in transitions's
(17:34):
got to score in the half court. They couldn't in
the first meeting these teams played. It was a super
low scoring game. These teams are, They're both a lot
different than they were back in November. But I find
it hard prior unless k Love has a really good
game here, I find it hard for that Arizona's going
to be able to keep up. Duke could also get
an elite Brown back, who I think is actually a
key piece for Duke's upside, Like, Dude could still win
(17:57):
the national title without him, but when they go up
against the team you know, some of the other elite
teams down the line. Malik Brown gives them so much
defensive versatility with his switching and so they might have him,
and then it's gonna be even tougher for Arizona. So
Duke to me, it feels like Yukon like last year.
It's like, I don't bet against them. They're probably going
(18:17):
to cover, so I would not bet Arizona. I don't
mind the under. It's scary, but Duke, who you know,
can put up ninety, but that's probably my favorite under
of the first two rounds. And then Arkansas Texas Tech,
I have no idea. I have a Texas Tech future.
Bet them, they're in the region. On our podcast, we
(18:38):
have them to win the final four. I think they're
a top five team and fully healthy. But McMillan, who's
their best shooter. Their offense with him is absolutely electric.
It's almost unstoppable. He's got a no obleaque injury. We
don't know if he's gonna play. He didn't play over
the in the first weekend. And then you have Arkansas,
who they might get one of their best players back
(18:58):
and to do thero They just got Boogie Flann back.
They've had all these moving pieces all so it's they're
very hard to rate right now. They just got two
of them. They're gonna get two their better players back
from injury. How does it all work together. It's gonna
come down in Texas Tech shooting. If Texas Tech is
on from three, I don't think Arkansas can match them
(19:18):
with their scoring and a half court. But if they're off,
that's going to allow Arkansas to get out and transition
where they can score with anybody. And that team's just
super deep. Now that they have some guys back, they've
good good enough depth, they're super athletic, they're super long.
If they could turn that game into a brawl, Arkansas
is definitely dangerous, and they're they're playing with house money.
That's usually a role that Calipari can fulfill. So I
(19:43):
have no idea there. It depends on injuries and McMillan's status,
but I'll be rooting for Texas Tech.
Speaker 1 (19:49):
I would say about Texas Tech shooting or anybody shooting
a lot of you guys notice this. The mic on
these rims is so high pitched. When someone misses a shot,
they don't just miss a shot, it sounds like they're
breaking the basket like it sounds like these are the
worst shooting teams, laying the biggest bricks in the history
(20:12):
of college basketball. Because the sound, someone is either going
to win an Emmy for this or they're going to
have to completely adjust it for next year because it
feels like it is the loudest, rim rattling shot in
the history of college basketball.
Speaker 3 (20:26):
Yeah. Well, I always say that CBS's broadcasts of college
basketball has always been better than ESPN's from a like
an audio perspective, And people always say why, And I
think it's just their mics like that they capture the crowd,
especially in like road true home road games in my
(20:47):
conference by and then the rim like they just the
ball go with like a swish, sounds better. I don't
know what it is, but the CBS one always is.
The college basketball broadcast has always sounded better to me
just from an audio perspective, like to take the announcers
out of it, right, would you agree?
Speaker 2 (21:05):
Stucky, You're spot on.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
This is how deep you are into college basketball opinions
on the broadcast audio from network to network. That's why
we have you on this show, Simon. Before we witness
any legendary buzzer beaters, Cinderella stories, or diaper dandies, this
NCAA tournament, it all starts with both of us staying cool,
(21:29):
calm and collected this march, and the best way to
do that staying truly comfortable, the kind of flexible, breathable
comfort only possible through our sponsor, Tommy John. Before the
confetti of a better life can fall, before the first
chords of a one shining moment montage can play, we
must strive for best in class underwear and the best
(21:49):
casual essentials money can buy. So box out underperforming undergarments
and crash the boards of comfort with Tommy John Simon,
Why wen you be wearing more Tommy John in twenty twenty.
Speaker 4 (22:02):
Five because comfort is king ched Right.
Speaker 1 (22:06):
Now, you can shop Tommy John dot com slash favorites
and get twenty five percent off your first order. Save
twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash Favorites.
That's Tommy John dot Com slash favorites, all right, stock.
I do want us to run through the Friday games,
two of which I'll probably be sleeping for, but we
got four of them, Mississippi and Michigan State, Kentucky Tennessee
(22:28):
Michigan State, by the way, as a three and a
half point favorite, Kentucky Tennessee is a four and a
half point favorite. Auburn is a nine and a half
point favorite against Michigan Houston eight point favorite against Purdue.
Speaker 2 (22:41):
Give me your takes.
Speaker 3 (22:43):
Yeah already. Whenever All Miss Michigan State, I show a
little value Michigan State. I think it's sparty or nothing.
But wait, wait to get that live. The difference in
that game, I think is going to be rebounding. Ole
Miss a very poor rebounding team. Michigan State is elite
their top twenty offensive and defensive rebounding now almost does
some things that can trouble Michigan State. They're very good
(23:04):
transition defense, keep you out of transition. Part of that
is why they're not great rebounding. They get back. They
also force you to like work in isolation and shoot
threes in the half court. Those aren't two really strong
areas of Michigan State. It's not a great shooting team.
They almost never operate in isolation. So there's some things
(23:26):
that could be working in Ole missus favor. But at
the end of the day, I think it's the rebounding
for Michigan State and then their depth that I think
will eventually win that game. But prefer to probably wait
to see if Michigan State is down at some point
in the first half, which they usually are, or even
down at the end of the first half, and look
for them live or in the second half. Kentucky Tennessee.
(23:48):
The disclosure of the Kentucky fan for my wife.
Speaker 2 (23:51):
You're based in Lexington. For people who I am.
Speaker 3 (23:53):
Based in Lexington and we're finally to the second weekend.
Speaker 2 (23:56):
You're based in Lexington.
Speaker 1 (23:57):
If anyone ever sees you walking down the street and
Fanny years on Twitter, by all means, feel free to
say hello, because you were a very proachable celebrity.
Speaker 3 (24:06):
Most yeah, no one hesitates in Lexington. But the I
will say that Kentucky swept the regular season, so they
won both meetings against Tennessee. But those are basically due
to shooting variants. Kentucky's defense has issues, and you know
they struggle defending off ball stuff pick and roll. But
(24:29):
what they did in the first two meetings against Tennessee
is they said, Tennessee, I dare you to beat us
by shooting the ball, and Tennessee just couldn't. They went.
Tennessee shot seventeen to sixty four from three in those
two meetings and Kentucky was lights out from three, so
those games basically were decided by three point variants. You're
(24:52):
playing in a half cut off Lucas Oil Stadium. I
would assume, given some of Kentucky's defense deficiencies, that that's
going to be the plan again, like make Tennessee beat
us by being jump shooters. We Kentucky can battle on
the defensive glass against Tennessee, who's good on the offensive glass.
But I think it's going to be a plan again.
And hey, in neutral court, if Tennessee's missing this Kentucky
(25:16):
offense can play with anyone. They're playing really well. They've
had injuries. They got Lamont Butler back, and when they
had a bunch of injuries throughout the year, they were
a bunch of other guys were able to step up.
And now they're they have more reliable depth and hopes
and excellent coach. I just fear that the Tennessee defense
is so good and the Tennessee's not going to shoot
(25:36):
like it did in the first two meetings. Slightly in
to Tennessee. We'll be rooting for Kentucky. Michigan Auburn is
an interesting game. This Michigan team, they just find ways
to if the game is close in the second half,
they're super comfortable there. You have to give Dusty May
a ton of credit for what he's done all year.
(25:58):
You could say to the close game King, they've won
close games all year. But there's something to be said
about their execution in these final ten five three two
minutes of games, and they I think they've benefited from
getting out of the Big Ten. They play a very
unique style. They have two seven footers that are run,
pick and roll and the big you know, the Big Ten.
(26:19):
They kind of got used to that, right and there's
a lot of bigs in the Big Ten, but you
saw that and it's you became familiar with it, and
the teams adjusted. But it's such a unique scheme that
I think they've benefited from getting out of conference play.
With that said, Auburn is as well positioned as anybody
to vend their two bigs with Brooman Caldwell, and if
(26:42):
they neutralize each other, it's sort of like Creighton Auburn.
Just the perimeter is just such an advantage for Auburn
that I think eventually that's what will overwhelm Michigan. There.
Michigan's gonna have to get help from the role players,
which they haven't really gotten consistently. They did against Texas
A and M right Gale somehow went knots LJKSM was
(27:02):
big if they can carry that over and Auburn is
just a little lack the days of goal again, because
I here's the thing with Auburn, they haven't been great
for the past three weeks, but they also were probably coasting.
Now there were talks of like there's locker room issues.
So I don't really know because they were already locked
into the one seed, the number one overall seed, but
(27:25):
they definitely looked like they weren't all the way engaged
even in the first round, even in the first half
against Crayton. Now Crave went nine of fourteen from three
in the first half against them. Part of that was
just their perimeter dem was pretty lax. They look like
they locked in in the second half. Will they be
locked in from the jump here? I don't know. It's
hard for me to gauge. I'm kind of close to
(27:45):
the number here, but I do think Auburn will advance.
But you don't want to play with fire against this
Michigan team and being a close game late because they'll
steal it. They've shown they can do that all year.
And then lastly, you're perdue of Houston's uglyest game of
the tournament, as you could probably guess by the total
(28:06):
of one thirty two and a half, and it will
be played in that half cutoff football stadium. It's in
uh It's in Indy though, so the one seed has
a bit of a disadvantage there taking on Purdue in Indianapolis.
It's gonna be tough for Purdue here. Purdue is good.
They're gonna overwhelm Bradsmith, who's one of the best point
(28:26):
guards in college basketball. They're gonna overwhelm TKR. It's a
great big TKR. He's gonna need to be a facilitator.
He's gonna have to make some plays on the short role.
But this Houston d is incredible. They're long. Can the
Purdue role players step up because they're gonna be at
an overall athletic disadvantage, a talent disadvantage, and the Purdue
defense has issues defending at the rim. What Painter has
(28:49):
done is he's packed it in and he said, I
dare teams to beat beat as shooting and No one's
been able to do that in the tournament so far,
but they've played a couple of mid majors. Houston doesn't
love the shoot threes. They like to shoot mid majors
play volleyball on the offensive class, but they're the number
one three point shooting team in the country by percentage.
If they make a couple, I think this Perdue defense
is a house of cards and it all falls apart.
(29:11):
But Purdue is going to try to grind this game
down to a halt. That's all Houston wants to do.
So this is so like, do I really want to
lay eight in a game that could be like fifty
five fifty with two to go? Probably not, But I
would lean Houston eventually unpacking that Purdue defense. Who they're
three hundred and fiftieth in the country in rim defense.
(29:34):
If you can just make some shots and unpack them,
you can score at the rim. They can get off
its the rebounds and score. So eventually Houston I think
will overwhelm Perdue unless the Purdue role players just have
a really really good game, and I don't think that
they're that trustworthy. And I don't hate the under there either,
even though it is a super low number. Purdue is
(29:55):
going to try to grind that game down, and that's
all Houston does anyway, so that one should be a grinder.
Speaker 4 (30:00):
Now, I got to ask a bias question before we
let's stuck get out of here, Chad, I gotta know
you're locked in this season. To me, I've watched really
Duke all season. They've just to me, been the best
team of every week. This seem like they get better.
Like all the guys' weaknesses to start the year, at
this point of the year, a lot of them have
been addressed. A really complete team at this point. Who
is your model or where guys you're talking to are saying,
(30:21):
this is the one team that can stop them in
this tournament. This is the best team left matchup wise
against this Duke team, Because right now across the board,
it feels like, you know, people are talking about Florida
and stuff like that, but you saw in that Connecticut
game Florida got tight, and it's like, I'm interested in
your perspective, but what team left will give Duke their
biggest issues?
Speaker 3 (30:38):
Yeah, I mean from a I mean Florida and Auburn
are right there, but I think from a from a
matchup perspective, I think the two teams they're both on
Duke's side that just stylistically could cause issues are Houston
(31:00):
and Tennessee. And the reason for that both play super slow,
both have elite defenses. They're going to limit the possessions, right,
So Duke is so good, you don't want to get
into a game where you're playing up and down against
them where their talent will probably eventually win out. So
I think the best way to beat this Duke team
(31:23):
is you want to limit the number of possessions playing.
So that's Houston Houston's three sixtieth and adjusted tempo and
Tennessee's three hundred and forty sixth. And you have to
be a team that can make threes. You gotta trade
threes for twos at times against Duke. I already mentioned
(31:43):
Houston number one in the country in three point percentage.
Tennessee is capable. They're not an elite shooting team, but
they have some capable shooters. So I think those are
the two teams. Just stylistically, it's like, hey, let's just
slow this game down because Duke's not fast either, and
just lower possession game physicality at certain positions might be
something that can give Duke issues, and that's what Tennessee
(32:06):
and Houston have. We saw that against Clemson. I that's
the last time that Duke has lost since December. So
I think those are the two teams because of how
they play, because of their defenses, and then because of
their ability to hit some outside shots that they might
give Duke the most interesting game, even though it's gonna
(32:27):
be tough to score on Duke's defense. No matter what,
those are the two most intriguing matchups to me. Now,
the way that it's going to play out is one
of those teams is gonna get knocked out. If they
both win, they'll play each other, but that could be
a really intriguing final four matchup.
Speaker 1 (32:43):
I love that we are ending this Duke heavy because, look,
I love the team. To me, they're the most exciting team.
I have the same feeling stuck that you do. There's
something you kind of ask about the way they're playing
and dominating that you just sort of you lose in
(33:03):
the noise of the tournament, like if you're not really
paying attention, all of a sudden it becomes clear who
the best team is. And I think they're sort of
separating a little bit before we get out of here,
We're going to bring in Evan Abrams, director of Research,
because he's actually dug up something fun on the Duke
(33:24):
Blue Devils.
Speaker 2 (33:26):
Evan Abrams, what do you got.
Speaker 3 (33:28):
The last word with Evan Abrams.
Speaker 5 (33:32):
We're finished talking and just to talk about the market
for a second check because you guys have been talking
about it all eight games. You've either seen the team
who's favored get more of a favorite or stay still.
So everyone after the first two we rounds of the
tournament kind of just going on chalk here.
Speaker 3 (33:48):
But let's keep with Duke.
Speaker 5 (33:50):
So people have been kind of saying that they're an
inevitable champion at this point. I mean Florida has, you know,
zero to two against the spread, Like there's different cracks
and other teams, so I kind of dug this, which
is kind of interesting. So obviously, recently Duke has been
playing fantastic. They're scored one point five points per possession
in around a thirty two versus Baylor, which is the
highest points per possession for any team in the tournament
(34:11):
since twenty sixteen. Now through two games, Duke has a
point margin of plus sixty seven that is tied for
the seventh highest since nineteen eighty five, when you know
the tournament expanded. So of those seven teams with Duke
on that list, all seven made the Elite eight. So
they all advanced through this weekend. Five made the Final four,
two made the title game, and actually none won at all.
(34:33):
And I found that kind of and I found that interesting,
so I looked one step further. So honestly, Duke has
been winning by a lot. So Duke has won twenty
one games this year by twenty plus points, second most
by a D one team since two thousand. The only
team with Moore twenty sixteen to seventeen Gonzaga, who had
twenty three. Now, the only Duke team that's ever had
more was the ninety eight ninety nine Duke team with
(34:55):
twenty four. Now that becomes interesting when I give you
this other stat. So during the regular season, Duke has
also been incredibly dominant twenty eight and three straight up,
outscoring their opponents by six hundred and eighty five points,
which is tenth most all time. So of those other
nine teams above Duke on that regular season list, nine
made the Elite eight. All nine six made the final
(35:16):
four five made the title game and actually two to
one at all nineteen sixty eight UCLA, nineteen seventy two UCLA.
Here's the best part of those two lists. I gave
you the list of the regular season and the list
the first two rounds of the tournament. Only one other
team is on that on both lists with Duke. That
is nineteen eight, nineteen ninety eight, nineteen ninety nine Duke,
(35:39):
so twenty five Duke, ninety nine Duke.
Speaker 3 (35:41):
Only two teams on those same lists.
Speaker 5 (35:43):
Obviously, that ninety nine Duke team went to the title game,
played Yukon and ended up losing. So I think the
question of inevitable for Duke, especially when looking just at
history right like you're looking at metrics, ken Pom and
on these other areas. Duke's pretty much one of the
best teams we've ever seen, but his story when you're
this good still kind of a crapshoot. I mean, you
might get there, but they don't always win.
Speaker 3 (36:06):
But the best team on Kempom is that ninety nine
Duke team by far. Yeah, yeah, shatter than this year's team.
And yeah they lost to Yukon, is like ten point
I think they're ten point Favorites and the title. But
so it all comes full circle to Yukon Chadam back
to your point with Cooper Flag healthy for a full game,
they've covered ten straight. Even though everyone knows they're this good,
that's just that's the same vibes.
Speaker 1 (36:28):
Which is why we're going to bet on futures for
the remaining of the tournament on Tennessee or Houston, based
on Stuck saying those are the teams they can knack off.
Duke Stuck, thanks for coming on the show, buddy. We're
excited to see you on Saturday. We're excited to be
able to have full access to you. I am not
going to stand in the way of anybody who's trying
to talk to Stucky, so much is standing the way
(36:51):
to me though, I don't like that, looking.
Speaker 3 (36:52):
Forward to it. Futures. By the way, if I were
to bet one now, he'll be Texas Tech, just because
the upside if they get healthy and they're on the
other side of the brack.
Speaker 1 (37:00):
From Duke all right, Texas Tech as a reminder of
the Favorites podcast is presented by BET three sixty five
and is now live in my native state of Illinois.
New bet three sixty five, Customers, including those in Illinois,
get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. When
you bet five dollars, sun up using promo code Favorites
deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to
get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
(37:23):
bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. At bet
three six five, especially in Illinois. Must be twenty one
or older in president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
(37:44):
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa.
Speaker 2 (37:45):
Terms. Conditions restrictions apply.
Speaker 1 (37:48):
Time and I will return with our next episode of
The Favorites on the Action Network You two page Tuesday,
one thirty pm Eastern with very special guests, my former
colleague at ESPN.
Speaker 2 (37:57):
Chris the Bear Felika on Fox.
Speaker 1 (38:00):
Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your
pods rate reviews, subscribe, Wes fight Stars say whatever you want.
Speaker 2 (38:06):
Feedback is a gift. Until next time. I Love you.
Speaker 5 (38:16):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
Speaker 2 (38:20):
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help Us available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Mellman of the Action Network. I'm live
from my Tommy John home studio, and I'm joined as
always by my co host, my companion, Mike cam Padre
my BFF Professional Better Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Hello, Simon, Chad.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
How are we doing?
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Brother? We're back in the.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Swing four days of college basketball. You and I have
an incredibly special guest coming on the show. He is
the og Action. He is the heartbeat of the Action Network.
(00:55):
The first person I ever had dinner with before we
even started the company. I had dinner with this guy.
He's going to be joining us in Chicago this weekend
for our live show, the most Obsessive College Basketball Better.
I've ever met a man who has so loved college
(01:18):
basketball for so long that his one name, Moniker, is
derived from his then favorite college basketball player. The co
host of our Big Bets on Campus podcast, The Hat
says it all. A man who needs only one name.
(01:40):
Welcome back, Stucky.
Speaker 3 (01:46):
Going on, Cheb. Thanks for the intro. I'm excited to
get back to some basketball action after this couple day lull,
but I'm also very very excited for Chicago on Saturday.
I love it. It's your bottom dollar. You have some
(02:08):
longtime Action followers and followers of myself that I'm friendly
with that I'm going to see, and then I'm most
excited besides seeing you guys, of course, which is always nice,
but I'm most excited to meet new followers and meet
new subscribers and listeners to the podcast. Always have such
(02:29):
a good time at these events, and in the past
we've done them, you know, in Vegas and in the
New York City area, where we also have uh, pretty
loyal followers, but we've never done anything in Chicago, and
I I love Chicago and the people from there, so
I'm just so excited to meet some of the people
(02:51):
that I haven't had a chance to in in the past.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
H Stucky, my Dad's going to be there, and oh really, yeah,
well I'm from Chicago. I don't know who else from
my family will show up. Remains to be seen. I've
gotten non committals from a few people, but I know
I know that my dad will be there. And for
those people who aren't aware at this point of what
(03:18):
Stucky is talking about, another reminder that everybody can officially
RSVP for our free Favorites live show event in Chicago.
This will be for the Elite eight March Madness Games Sunday,
March twenty ninth. Sorry, Saturday, March twenty ninth. That Joson
Weed great great spot. Every time I've told someone we're
(03:39):
doing an event at Joson Weed who's from Chicago and
doesn't live there anymore, they're like, oh man, I love
Joson Weed. Free event, free drinks, free live show was
Stucky three man Weave Simon myself Matt Mitchell has an entire.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
SUV full of swag to give away.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
Just RSVP to reserve your spot by clicking the link
in this episode's description, or you can just Google.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Favorites Live Event Chicago. Be sure to RSVP.
Speaker 1 (04:07):
Must RSVP to get in, but then you get in,
you get free drinks, free event, free chatting with the crew,
plus a mini live show where Stock is gonna regale
us with stories and ideas on what to do with
Elite eight. As a reminder of this favorite podcast is
presented by BET three sixty five, which is now live
in my native state of Illinois.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
New BET three sixty five.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
Customers, including those in Illinois, get one hundred and fifty
dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign
up using promo code favorites, deposit ten dollars, place a
bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty
dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
Bet three sixty five, especially in Illinois, must be twenty
one or older in president Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen or
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms, conditioned
restrictions apply. I will say these events are always amazing.
(05:11):
Whether we've done them outside New York, Vegas, Philly in
the winter, they're great. I hope a lot of people
are able to make it and hang out with us.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
All right.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
One thing I want to say, though, is tiny at
these events, Like people that you guys that know me,
know that I will try to talk to as many
people as I can, and I can well talk to
anyone about anything at any time. But if you see
me and you've been a follower, or you just want
to ask questions or anything, please don't hesitate to come
(05:40):
up to me or anyone. You will never bother me.
So whether you want to tell me your story, ask
a question, or just share your thoughts or talk some ball,
don't hesitate to come up to me. I'm the easiest
person to approach.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
What is this are you, Timothy shallow May? We're at
an event for our company. Were the whole Some people
tell me like they were.
Speaker 3 (06:03):
I'm telling you people don't tweets from people like, oh,
you look like you were busy. I didn't want to
live up to you. And this is like after I
leave the city, right, It's like I kind of wanted
to go up to you, but you were talking to
someone else. It's like, no, just not bother bother away.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
Father, Stucky, don't come up to me. I'm a little
bit more refined and precious. I'm not as interested in
talking to people, but definitely talk to Stucky. You can
talk to my dad, you can talk to Simon Uh,
definitely stuck.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
You'll be there for the duration. Just talk to Stucky.
This is a Stucky moment.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
Speaking of Stucky, right, I'm enamored of the Maryland game.
I thought the the the Yukon Florida game was outstanding.
I actually loved the Duke game even though it was
a blowout, because I just love watching Duke.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
I think they're so good and I want to see excellence.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
So many criticisms of this tournament right now, What have
you learned from this tournament?
Speaker 2 (07:00):
What are your biggest takeaways so far?
Speaker 3 (07:04):
Yeah, I mean, I'm I'm learning a lot just in
college basketball in general the past couple of years, college
football too, Like even this past year, like I've I've
started to redoing everything that I've ever done in college basketball.
College basketball is always my best sport. I kind of
just was coasting for a while doing what I have
(07:24):
always done. And it's a new world. And you know
now with college football it's also a new world. I
spend so much time. I used to never spend any
time in college football. Just used to before action. I
used to just lose money be in college football. I
loved it, played football. It would just donate because in
the summer, I would spend all my time preparing for
(07:45):
college basketball. There's so many teams, it's so much work,
and then you know October November, so I was just donating.
I was spending my time doing football, NFL and college basketball. Well,
now with college football, I spend so much time there.
I'm already behind in college basketball. It's harder, the market's
more efficient, and it's just this new world. Like you
have teams that hit completely hit the reset button. In
(08:08):
the past, it was and there's a lot of similarities
of college football too. In the past. It's like we
got they're replacing these two starters right, a lot easier
to project from a year to year basis on what
a team is going to be. Now it's completely different.
The portal, it's crazy. We already have over one thousand.
We have a thousand, more than a thousand players already
in the portal. But I think what we're starting to
(08:29):
see is just the separation from the top and the
bottom is growing. And I think that's going to happen
in college football as well. I do think that there's
gonna eventually be more parody at the top. So like
your top twenty and this is true in college football
as well. You're going to have more stronger teams in
(08:50):
that mix. But the gap between the top and the
bottom is just going to continue to grow. And we've
seen this the past two years whereund just might be
chalkier moving forward. I do think it's eventually, you know,
over time, there's going to be exceptions that the tournament
will be better from the second and third weekends as
(09:10):
a result. But I mean, we have four leagues that's
it represented this year. That's the fewest ever, and we
only have one from the ACC which is Duke. So
I do think that this is still small Sampit size.
This is still a new world. But I do think
that this what we've seen so far as a microcosm
(09:31):
of what we can expect to see in the college
sports landscape moving forward and just have to adjust and
get used to it. But I think it's just a
growing gap.
Speaker 4 (09:43):
And everyone's about what have you done lately?
Speaker 3 (09:45):
Right?
Speaker 4 (09:45):
We just had sixteen seeds lose not even two three
years ago, So it's just funny how quickly before like
it's so boring. Now it's like it's just year to year, right,
But I do think it's interesting to see what and
I always going to do with college sports, And yeah,
you online have been trolling these Michigan State fans and
Tom Mizzo fans. Is that just you don't trust his
team and you're just taking shots to them because it's
(10:06):
funny or are you just like I hate bet this team.
No matter what, I'm gonna fade them in this upcoming round.
Speaker 3 (10:11):
No, I just haven't fun with Michigan State fans. There's
also what I always forget on Twitter. A lot of
times when I'm tweeting about certain teams that I don't like,
I'm usually trolling like a couple of friends, like personal friends.
But I've always had fun with Michigan State fans, usually
in college football. But no, I don't trust I don't
(10:32):
think Michigan State has national title upside, mainly because I
just don't trust their offense, Like they don't have the
perimeter shooting. Their half court offense can get very stagnant. Now,
Jayce Richardson, if he's on, he's a freshman. He had
a tough game last game, but he stepped up in
the final two minutes. If he's on, that really raises
their ceiling. They do have a high floor like is
(10:54):
it was a great coach. They do play tremendous defense,
and they're great on the glass. No, I don't hate
any team. I used to hate Duke because my dad
liked Duke growing up. That's kind of it dwindled over
the years, and I don't This Duke team isn't that hateable,
which is kind of disappointing. And I like Shire, which
(11:15):
is also disappointing. I wish there was I wish I
hated Duke more, but no, I don't. I don't hate
any team. So I actually kind of like Michigan State
this week against Old miss but I'm you know, it's
the Sweet sixteen. You're not going to find a ton
of edge or value. I'm mainly looking at matchups at
this time of the year to try and find any
(11:36):
edge or what to bet. But I do show a
little value in Michigan State. The problem is, I don't
know if I should bet at pregame because Michigan State's
games are they go according almost to a script. Every time.
They're like, they'll be down at the half, they'll have
a sluggish first half, and one of their biggest strengths
is their death and they will wear teams down. We
(11:58):
saw it all throughout the conference play. In the second half,
they will just overwhelm teams with their depth, their athleticism,
their rebounding, and they just go on runs in the
second half. So there's a good chance that they come
out slow, they're down, and then I think Michigan State's
gonna be worth a look from a live betting perspective.
That's probably my favorite live betting look of the first round,
(12:22):
like it, excuse me, of the tournament so far. And
I made the mistake. I bet in New Mexico plus
seven and a half on Sunday, and I didn't listen
to myself. I didn't have any first half. I didn't
bet Michigan State live and it was just one of
their games. Again, even go back to the first round
against Bryant. I mean, it was close game in the
first half and then their depth just overran Briant in
(12:44):
the second half. So if I had to bet the
game pre game, I would bet Michigan State, but I'm
gonna look for a better opportunity live. I don't like
Michigan State. Sure could they win it all? Yeah, I
mean it's one basketball game throughout I think they're gonna
need the They're gonna need the other seed kind of
break their way, Like you want to root if you're
Michigan Zape and you want to root for Michigan so
you don't have to play Auburn. But I think that
(13:05):
they're just their ceiling in a half court on offense
might limit them compared to a Duke for example, and
some of the in f Florida, so that that's where
I think it's going to hold them back. But I
had a ton of respect for azz Oh. I love
Michigan State fans. Part of what when I get to
have that interaction people is they have loyal sometimes bordering
on psychotic fan basis, which I love in Michigan State
(13:27):
fits the build there for sure.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
I agree with you about Duke. I know Simon has
always been a Duke fan. I have found Duke to
be so much more likable since the very end of
the Coach k era and with the John Shire era.
I love him as a coach. I think he's relatable.
(13:53):
I love the way he interacts with his players. I
like watching this team. I set it off the top.
I think this team super fun to watch play basketball
because they're so good and they're competitive, and Cooper Flag
is just a straight baller. But they got so many
other guys who can play at such an elite level.
(14:14):
I don't even care that like they have an advantage
because they get every single elite recruit looking at their
school and they're loaded with nal money. As we look
at the weekend Thursday Friday, knowing that a lot of people,
you know, the early games are not going to be
something they can activate against off of this show. Give
(14:38):
me your roundup for Thursday and Friday.
Speaker 3 (14:43):
Which yeah, I mean quickly on the early games. I
do think BYU has a little bit of value. That's
that's the number that I show the most value on.
Their offense is electric. I mean the total one seventy
five and it's on pace to be a high since
nineteen ninety five. In the tournament, their offense is electric.
Now their defense, Alabama's defense has issues, but so does BYU's.
(15:03):
They're just they lack athleticism in certain positions. So what
do they do. They pack it in kind, They'll play
some zone. They dare you to shoot the three. So
it's scary. They're going up against Alabama. Who's gonna who
shoots a lot of threes and can get hot. Not
as good as the shooting team as they were last year,
but they can still go nuclear. They've be shooting thirty
eight percent in tever of first So it's a scary
one because BYU if Alabama will have days where they
(15:24):
just go sixteen to thirty eight, sixteen to thirty five
from three, and then YU might not be able to
keep up. But you gotta remember these games are in
weird venues right well, the Kentucky Tennessee or dou who
used to That's that's in Indianapolis in a cut in
half football stadium. So are the it's the shooting going
to be just a little off. And in that case, BYU, hey,
(15:47):
you're encouraging Alabama to fire away from three. That might
work in your favor. So I think BYU has some
value Maryland as well. A little worry about Maryland's depth.
They got to stay out of foul trouble, sure, because
I mean, Florida is so deep they can come at
you in waves. I don't think Maryland could do some
of the things that Yukon did from an offensive perspective,
but I do show a little value in that number,
(16:09):
although like if they're you play it up and down
fast game against Florida and let them get in transition,
which meryln will do. Maryland's transition he's really good, but
that's gonna be an up tempo game. That's dangerous. One
of the things you kind of going for. They do
a lot of off ball stuff which can give Florida problems,
and they slow the game down to a halt. Maryland's
starting five to crab five. They could play with anyone
(16:30):
but got and that like the extended TV timeouts this
time of year, like they help, but they got to
stay out of foul trouble. Usually do a good job
in that department, but Blarida's got a ton of size,
will come at you in a fast paced game. But yeah,
if I had a bet aside in that game as
of right now, I would look at Maryland duke Arizona.
I just I don't know how Arizona's going to consistently
(16:51):
score in that game. The wild Card's Caleb Love If
he has games, he's capable of it, and he's done
it on the stage and he was tremendous against the Oregon.
They need him in the half court and Kenny duplicate
what he just did against the elite Duke defense. I
don't know, but they're going to need him because what
is Arizona want to do. They want to get out
(17:13):
in transition and they want to score at the rim.
Both are essentially impossible against Duke, who's like fifth percent
tile and rim defense allowed, fifth percent tile and transition
allowed and then above ninety inefficiency. So you can't score
at the riom on Duke, he can't score in transitions's
(17:34):
got to score in the half court. They couldn't in
the first meeting these teams played. It was a super
low scoring game. These teams are, They're both a lot
different than they were back in November. But I find
it hard prior unless k Love has a really good
game here, I find it hard for that Arizona's going
to be able to keep up. Duke could also get
an elite Brown back, who I think is actually a
key piece for Duke's upside, Like, Dude could still win
(17:57):
the national title without him, but when they go up
against the team you know, some of the other elite
teams down the line. Malik Brown gives them so much
defensive versatility with his switching and so they might have him,
and then it's gonna be even tougher for Arizona. So
Duke to me, it feels like Yukon like last year.
It's like, I don't bet against them. They're probably going
(18:17):
to cover, so I would not bet Arizona. I don't
mind the under. It's scary, but Duke, who you know,
can put up ninety, but that's probably my favorite under
of the first two rounds. And then Arkansas Texas Tech,
I have no idea. I have a Texas Tech future.
Bet them, they're in the region. On our podcast, we
(18:38):
have them to win the final four. I think they're
a top five team and fully healthy. But McMillan, who's
their best shooter. Their offense with him is absolutely electric.
It's almost unstoppable. He's got a no obleaque injury. We
don't know if he's gonna play. He didn't play over
the in the first weekend. And then you have Arkansas,
who they might get one of their best players back
(18:58):
and to do thero They just got Boogie Flann back.
They've had all these moving pieces all so it's they're
very hard to rate right now. They just got two
of them. They're gonna get two their better players back
from injury. How does it all work together. It's gonna
come down in Texas Tech shooting. If Texas Tech is
on from three, I don't think Arkansas can match them
(19:18):
with their scoring and a half court. But if they're off,
that's going to allow Arkansas to get out and transition
where they can score with anybody. And that team's just
super deep. Now that they have some guys back, they've
good good enough depth, they're super athletic, they're super long.
If they could turn that game into a brawl, Arkansas
is definitely dangerous, and they're they're playing with house money.
That's usually a role that Calipari can fulfill. So I
(19:43):
have no idea there. It depends on injuries and McMillan's status,
but I'll be rooting for Texas Tech.
Speaker 1 (19:49):
I would say about Texas Tech shooting or anybody shooting
a lot of you guys notice this. The mic on
these rims is so high pitched. When someone misses a shot,
they don't just miss a shot, it sounds like they're
breaking the basket like it sounds like these are the
worst shooting teams, laying the biggest bricks in the history
(20:12):
of college basketball. Because the sound, someone is either going
to win an Emmy for this or they're going to
have to completely adjust it for next year because it
feels like it is the loudest, rim rattling shot in
the history of college basketball.
Speaker 3 (20:26):
Yeah. Well, I always say that CBS's broadcasts of college
basketball has always been better than ESPN's from a like
an audio perspective, And people always say why, And I
think it's just their mics like that they capture the crowd,
especially in like road true home road games in my
(20:47):
conference by and then the rim like they just the
ball go with like a swish, sounds better. I don't
know what it is, but the CBS one always is.
The college basketball broadcast has always sounded better to me
just from an audio perspective, like to take the announcers
out of it, right, would you agree?
Speaker 2 (21:05):
Stucky, You're spot on.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
This is how deep you are into college basketball opinions
on the broadcast audio from network to network. That's why
we have you on this show, Simon. Before we witness
any legendary buzzer beaters, Cinderella stories, or diaper dandies, this
NCAA tournament, it all starts with both of us staying cool,
(21:29):
calm and collected this march, and the best way to
do that staying truly comfortable, the kind of flexible, breathable
comfort only possible through our sponsor, Tommy John. Before the
confetti of a better life can fall, before the first
chords of a one shining moment montage can play, we
must strive for best in class underwear and the best
(21:49):
casual essentials money can buy. So box out underperforming undergarments
and crash the boards of comfort with Tommy John Simon,
Why wen you be wearing more Tommy John in twenty twenty.
Speaker 4 (22:02):
Five because comfort is king ched Right.
Speaker 1 (22:06):
Now, you can shop Tommy John dot com slash favorites
and get twenty five percent off your first order. Save
twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash Favorites.
That's Tommy John dot Com slash favorites, all right, stock.
I do want us to run through the Friday games,
two of which I'll probably be sleeping for, but we
got four of them, Mississippi and Michigan State, Kentucky Tennessee
(22:28):
Michigan State, by the way, as a three and a
half point favorite, Kentucky Tennessee is a four and a
half point favorite. Auburn is a nine and a half
point favorite against Michigan Houston eight point favorite against Purdue.
Speaker 2 (22:41):
Give me your takes.
Speaker 3 (22:43):
Yeah already. Whenever All Miss Michigan State, I show a
little value Michigan State. I think it's sparty or nothing.
But wait, wait to get that live. The difference in
that game, I think is going to be rebounding. Ole
Miss a very poor rebounding team. Michigan State is elite
their top twenty offensive and defensive rebounding now almost does
some things that can trouble Michigan State. They're very good
(23:04):
transition defense, keep you out of transition. Part of that
is why they're not great rebounding. They get back. They
also force you to like work in isolation and shoot
threes in the half court. Those aren't two really strong
areas of Michigan State. It's not a great shooting team.
They almost never operate in isolation. So there's some things
(23:26):
that could be working in Ole missus favor. But at
the end of the day, I think it's the rebounding
for Michigan State and then their depth that I think
will eventually win that game. But prefer to probably wait
to see if Michigan State is down at some point
in the first half, which they usually are, or even
down at the end of the first half, and look
for them live or in the second half. Kentucky Tennessee.
(23:48):
The disclosure of the Kentucky fan for my wife.
Speaker 2 (23:51):
You're based in Lexington. For people who I am.
Speaker 3 (23:53):
Based in Lexington and we're finally to the second weekend.
Speaker 2 (23:56):
You're based in Lexington.
Speaker 1 (23:57):
If anyone ever sees you walking down the street and
Fanny years on Twitter, by all means, feel free to
say hello, because you were a very proachable celebrity.
Speaker 3 (24:06):
Most yeah, no one hesitates in Lexington. But the I
will say that Kentucky swept the regular season, so they
won both meetings against Tennessee. But those are basically due
to shooting variants. Kentucky's defense has issues, and you know
they struggle defending off ball stuff pick and roll. But
(24:29):
what they did in the first two meetings against Tennessee
is they said, Tennessee, I dare you to beat us
by shooting the ball, and Tennessee just couldn't. They went.
Tennessee shot seventeen to sixty four from three in those
two meetings and Kentucky was lights out from three, so
those games basically were decided by three point variants. You're
(24:52):
playing in a half cut off Lucas Oil Stadium. I
would assume, given some of Kentucky's defense deficiencies, that that's
going to be the plan again, like make Tennessee beat
us by being jump shooters. We Kentucky can battle on
the defensive glass against Tennessee, who's good on the offensive glass.
But I think it's going to be a plan again.
And hey, in neutral court, if Tennessee's missing this Kentucky
(25:16):
offense can play with anyone. They're playing really well. They've
had injuries. They got Lamont Butler back, and when they
had a bunch of injuries throughout the year, they were
a bunch of other guys were able to step up.
And now they're they have more reliable depth and hopes
and excellent coach. I just fear that the Tennessee defense
is so good and the Tennessee's not going to shoot
(25:36):
like it did in the first two meetings. Slightly in
to Tennessee. We'll be rooting for Kentucky. Michigan Auburn is
an interesting game. This Michigan team, they just find ways
to if the game is close in the second half,
they're super comfortable there. You have to give Dusty May
a ton of credit for what he's done all year.
(25:58):
You could say to the close game King, they've won
close games all year. But there's something to be said
about their execution in these final ten five three two
minutes of games, and they I think they've benefited from
getting out of the Big Ten. They play a very
unique style. They have two seven footers that are run,
pick and roll and the big you know, the Big Ten.
(26:19):
They kind of got used to that, right and there's
a lot of bigs in the Big Ten, but you
saw that and it's you became familiar with it, and
the teams adjusted. But it's such a unique scheme that
I think they've benefited from getting out of conference play.
With that said, Auburn is as well positioned as anybody
to vend their two bigs with Brooman Caldwell, and if
(26:42):
they neutralize each other, it's sort of like Creighton Auburn.
Just the perimeter is just such an advantage for Auburn
that I think eventually that's what will overwhelm Michigan. There.
Michigan's gonna have to get help from the role players,
which they haven't really gotten consistently. They did against Texas
A and M right Gale somehow went knots LJKSM was
(27:02):
big if they can carry that over and Auburn is
just a little lack the days of goal again, because
I here's the thing with Auburn, they haven't been great
for the past three weeks, but they also were probably coasting.
Now there were talks of like there's locker room issues.
So I don't really know because they were already locked
into the one seed, the number one overall seed, but
(27:25):
they definitely looked like they weren't all the way engaged
even in the first round, even in the first half
against Crayton. Now Crave went nine of fourteen from three
in the first half against them. Part of that was
just their perimeter dem was pretty lax. They look like
they locked in in the second half. Will they be
locked in from the jump here? I don't know. It's
hard for me to gauge. I'm kind of close to
(27:45):
the number here, but I do think Auburn will advance.
But you don't want to play with fire against this
Michigan team and being a close game late because they'll
steal it. They've shown they can do that all year.
And then lastly, you're perdue of Houston's uglyest game of
the tournament, as you could probably guess by the total
(28:06):
of one thirty two and a half, and it will
be played in that half cutoff football stadium. It's in
uh It's in Indy though, so the one seed has
a bit of a disadvantage there taking on Purdue in Indianapolis.
It's gonna be tough for Purdue here. Purdue is good.
They're gonna overwhelm Bradsmith, who's one of the best point
(28:26):
guards in college basketball. They're gonna overwhelm TKR. It's a
great big TKR. He's gonna need to be a facilitator.
He's gonna have to make some plays on the short role.
But this Houston d is incredible. They're long. Can the
Purdue role players step up because they're gonna be at
an overall athletic disadvantage, a talent disadvantage, and the Purdue
defense has issues defending at the rim. What Painter has
(28:49):
done is he's packed it in and he said, I
dare teams to beat beat as shooting and No one's
been able to do that in the tournament so far,
but they've played a couple of mid majors. Houston doesn't
love the shoot threes. They like to shoot mid majors
play volleyball on the offensive class, but they're the number
one three point shooting team in the country by percentage.
If they make a couple, I think this Perdue defense
is a house of cards and it all falls apart.
(29:11):
But Purdue is going to try to grind this game
down to a halt. That's all Houston wants to do.
So this is so like, do I really want to
lay eight in a game that could be like fifty
five fifty with two to go? Probably not, But I
would lean Houston eventually unpacking that Purdue defense. Who they're
three hundred and fiftieth in the country in rim defense.
(29:34):
If you can just make some shots and unpack them,
you can score at the rim. They can get off
its the rebounds and score. So eventually Houston I think
will overwhelm Perdue unless the Purdue role players just have
a really really good game, and I don't think that
they're that trustworthy. And I don't hate the under there either,
even though it is a super low number. Purdue is
(29:55):
going to try to grind that game down, and that's
all Houston does anyway, so that one should be a grinder.
Speaker 4 (30:00):
Now, I got to ask a bias question before we
let's stuck get out of here, Chad, I gotta know
you're locked in this season. To me, I've watched really
Duke all season. They've just to me, been the best
team of every week. This seem like they get better.
Like all the guys' weaknesses to start the year, at
this point of the year, a lot of them have
been addressed. A really complete team at this point. Who
is your model or where guys you're talking to are saying,
(30:21):
this is the one team that can stop them in
this tournament. This is the best team left matchup wise
against this Duke team, Because right now across the board,
it feels like, you know, people are talking about Florida
and stuff like that, but you saw in that Connecticut
game Florida got tight, and it's like, I'm interested in
your perspective, but what team left will give Duke their
biggest issues?
Speaker 3 (30:38):
Yeah, I mean from a I mean Florida and Auburn
are right there, but I think from a from a
matchup perspective, I think the two teams they're both on
Duke's side that just stylistically could cause issues are Houston
(31:00):
and Tennessee. And the reason for that both play super slow,
both have elite defenses. They're going to limit the possessions, right,
So Duke is so good, you don't want to get
into a game where you're playing up and down against
them where their talent will probably eventually win out. So
I think the best way to beat this Duke team
(31:23):
is you want to limit the number of possessions playing.
So that's Houston Houston's three sixtieth and adjusted tempo and
Tennessee's three hundred and forty sixth. And you have to
be a team that can make threes. You gotta trade
threes for twos at times against Duke. I already mentioned
(31:43):
Houston number one in the country in three point percentage.
Tennessee is capable. They're not an elite shooting team, but
they have some capable shooters. So I think those are
the two teams. Just stylistically, it's like, hey, let's just
slow this game down because Duke's not fast either, and
just lower possession game physicality at certain positions might be
something that can give Duke issues, and that's what Tennessee
(32:06):
and Houston have. We saw that against Clemson. I that's
the last time that Duke has lost since December. So
I think those are the two teams because of how
they play, because of their defenses, and then because of
their ability to hit some outside shots that they might
give Duke the most interesting game, even though it's gonna
(32:27):
be tough to score on Duke's defense. No matter what,
those are the two most intriguing matchups to me. Now,
the way that it's going to play out is one
of those teams is gonna get knocked out. If they
both win, they'll play each other, but that could be
a really intriguing final four matchup.
Speaker 1 (32:43):
I love that we are ending this Duke heavy because, look,
I love the team. To me, they're the most exciting team.
I have the same feeling stuck that you do. There's
something you kind of ask about the way they're playing
and dominating that you just sort of you lose in
(33:03):
the noise of the tournament, like if you're not really
paying attention, all of a sudden it becomes clear who
the best team is. And I think they're sort of
separating a little bit before we get out of here,
We're going to bring in Evan Abrams, director of Research,
because he's actually dug up something fun on the Duke
(33:24):
Blue Devils.
Speaker 2 (33:26):
Evan Abrams, what do you got.
Speaker 3 (33:28):
The last word with Evan Abrams.
Speaker 5 (33:32):
We're finished talking and just to talk about the market
for a second check because you guys have been talking
about it all eight games. You've either seen the team
who's favored get more of a favorite or stay still.
So everyone after the first two we rounds of the
tournament kind of just going on chalk here.
Speaker 3 (33:48):
But let's keep with Duke.
Speaker 5 (33:50):
So people have been kind of saying that they're an
inevitable champion at this point. I mean Florida has, you know,
zero to two against the spread, Like there's different cracks
and other teams, so I kind of dug this, which
is kind of interesting. So obviously, recently Duke has been
playing fantastic. They're scored one point five points per possession
in around a thirty two versus Baylor, which is the
highest points per possession for any team in the tournament
(34:11):
since twenty sixteen. Now through two games, Duke has a
point margin of plus sixty seven that is tied for
the seventh highest since nineteen eighty five, when you know
the tournament expanded. So of those seven teams with Duke
on that list, all seven made the Elite eight. So
they all advanced through this weekend. Five made the Final four,
two made the title game, and actually none won at all.
(34:33):
And I found that kind of and I found that interesting,
so I looked one step further. So honestly, Duke has
been winning by a lot. So Duke has won twenty
one games this year by twenty plus points, second most
by a D one team since two thousand. The only
team with Moore twenty sixteen to seventeen Gonzaga, who had
twenty three. Now, the only Duke team that's ever had
more was the ninety eight ninety nine Duke team with
(34:55):
twenty four. Now that becomes interesting when I give you
this other stat. So during the regular season, Duke has
also been incredibly dominant twenty eight and three straight up,
outscoring their opponents by six hundred and eighty five points,
which is tenth most all time. So of those other
nine teams above Duke on that regular season list, nine
made the Elite eight. All nine six made the final
(35:16):
four five made the title game and actually two to
one at all nineteen sixty eight UCLA, nineteen seventy two UCLA.
Here's the best part of those two lists. I gave
you the list of the regular season and the list
the first two rounds of the tournament. Only one other
team is on that on both lists with Duke. That
is nineteen eight, nineteen ninety eight, nineteen ninety nine Duke,
(35:39):
so twenty five Duke, ninety nine Duke.
Speaker 3 (35:41):
Only two teams on those same lists.
Speaker 5 (35:43):
Obviously, that ninety nine Duke team went to the title game,
played Yukon and ended up losing. So I think the
question of inevitable for Duke, especially when looking just at
history right like you're looking at metrics, ken Pom and
on these other areas. Duke's pretty much one of the
best teams we've ever seen, but his story when you're
this good still kind of a crapshoot. I mean, you
might get there, but they don't always win.
Speaker 3 (36:06):
But the best team on Kempom is that ninety nine
Duke team by far. Yeah, yeah, shatter than this year's team.
And yeah they lost to Yukon, is like ten point
I think they're ten point Favorites and the title. But
so it all comes full circle to Yukon Chadam back
to your point with Cooper Flag healthy for a full game,
they've covered ten straight. Even though everyone knows they're this good,
that's just that's the same vibes.
Speaker 1 (36:28):
Which is why we're going to bet on futures for
the remaining of the tournament on Tennessee or Houston, based
on Stuck saying those are the teams they can knack off.
Duke Stuck, thanks for coming on the show, buddy. We're
excited to see you on Saturday. We're excited to be
able to have full access to you. I am not
going to stand in the way of anybody who's trying
to talk to Stucky, so much is standing the way
(36:51):
to me though, I don't like that, looking.
Speaker 3 (36:52):
Forward to it. Futures. By the way, if I were
to bet one now, he'll be Texas Tech, just because
the upside if they get healthy and they're on the
other side of the brack.
Speaker 1 (37:00):
From Duke all right, Texas Tech as a reminder of
the Favorites podcast is presented by BET three sixty five
and is now live in my native state of Illinois.
New bet three sixty five, Customers, including those in Illinois,
get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. When
you bet five dollars, sun up using promo code Favorites
deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to
get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
(37:23):
bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. At bet
three six five, especially in Illinois. Must be twenty one
or older in president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
(37:44):
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa.
Speaker 2 (37:45):
Terms. Conditions restrictions apply.
Speaker 1 (37:48):
Time and I will return with our next episode of
The Favorites on the Action Network You two page Tuesday,
one thirty pm Eastern with very special guests, my former
colleague at ESPN.
Speaker 2 (37:57):
Chris the Bear Felika on Fox.
Speaker 1 (38:00):
Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your
pods rate reviews, subscribe, Wes fight Stars say whatever you want.
Speaker 2 (38:06):
Feedback is a gift. Until next time. I Love you.
Speaker 5 (38:16):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
Speaker 2 (38:20):
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help Us available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred gambler
Hosts And Creators
Chad Millman
Simon Hunter
Popular Podcasts
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Special Summer Offer: Exclusively on Apple Podcasts, try our Dateline Premium subscription completely free for one month! With Dateline Premium, you get every episode ad-free plus exclusive bonus content.
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.