November 11, 2025 • 26 mins
In this episode of One Thing Trump Did, we look at the escalating situation between the U.S. and Venezuela, and how a campaign of military strikes against alleged drug-smuggling boats has transformed over a geopolitical standoff in the Caribbean. Jeremy is joined by Jason Marczak, vice president and senior director at the Atlantic Council's Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center #Venezuela #Maduro #NicholasMaduro #Trump #Drugs #DrugWar #Smuggling #Russia #China
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:15):
Welcome to One Thing Trump Did, available exclusively on the
Middle podcast Feed. I'm Jeremy Hobson, and each week on
this podcast, we pick one thing coming out of the
Trump White House and break it down in a nonpartisan
way with someone who knows what they're talking about. This week,
are one thing is the campaign of military strikes on
alleged drug boats in the Caribbean Sea and the Eastern
(00:36):
Pacific Ocean, and whether the situation could escalate into.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
A war in Venezuela.
Speaker 1 (00:42):
Over the past few months, the US military has carried
out at least seventeen strikes on suspected drug boats, killing
at least sixty seven people. According to Pentagon officials, the
strikes are part of a renewed push to cut off
the flow of narcotics into the United States, but critics,
including some members of Congress in both parties, want more
proof that the boats are being used by drug traffickers,
(01:05):
and they're demanding congressional authorization for the attacks. One of
those critics is Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, a Republican, who
shared his thoughts with Fox News.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
You side, this quote goes against all of our traditions,
So are you condemning the drug boat strikes.
Speaker 3 (01:24):
Well, you have to use a different word that was
left out in this question, and the word would be alleged,
because if we knew that we're drug dealers, we'd know
their names, we'd have evidence. And one of the interesting
thing is is one of the recent explosions, a bunch
of the people on the boats died, but two people survive.
Did we detain them and check them for drugs or
drug residue? Did we gather the evidence from the wreckage
(01:46):
and then prosecute them. No, we just said, oh, well.
Speaker 2 (01:48):
We're going to send you back to your country.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
So I really think that you cannot have a policy
where you just alleged that someone is guilty of something
and then kill them.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
Well, President Trump has defend the strikes, calling them a
message to the cartels and anyone helping them. He's also
hinted that the operations could expand, possibly including military strikes
within Venezuela. For more, I'm joined by Jason Marzak, vice
president and Senior Director at the Atlantic Council's Adrian R.
Latin America Center. Jason's great to have you here.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
Jeremy, great to be with you as well.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
Well, what more do you know as an expert in
this area about the strikes themselves, or do you know
any more than what's being reported publicly.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
Well, the strikes are part of the largest military build
up that we've seen in the Caribbean decades. You have
multiple US ships, US planes, US personnel that have all
been deployed to the Caribbean in the last couple of months.
And then of course the USS gerald Ford has also
been dispatched to the Caribbean.
Speaker 1 (02:47):
That's the largest aircraft carrier that the United States has.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
The largest aircraft carrier, the isaas has the gerald Ford
as of recently. I was just looking again, it's still
sitting near Gibraltar. Different reasons of why that might be happening,
but it has been deployed to the Caribbean as well.
So we see this massive build up, and the administration
has justified these attacks by saying that drug cartels are
(03:10):
unlawful combatants and the US is an armed conflict with them,
and that these strikes are part of the President's push
to reduce drug trafficking coming to the United States.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
But has the administration explained why there's not been any
due process that as Rand Paul said, they're just killing people,
saying this is a drug trafficker. We're going to kill
them rather than arrest them bring them to the United States.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
No. I mean, the administration has been clear in saying
that from their perspective that these boats are carrying drugs
that would have otherwise come to the United States. That
each sunken boat, the President said, would save about twenty
five thousand American lives, but not giving justification of why
we've shifted strategy from what would otherwise have happened, which
(03:56):
is to board the vessel, give warning, board the vessel,
and then check the vessel for drugs. It's a signal
not just in the Caribbean, but we've also seen these
strikes in the Pacific. But I think it's also a
signal to other countries around the hemisphere that the President
has also expressed concerns about their drug trafficking, of the
steps to which this administration will go to prevent drugs
(04:18):
from reaching the US borders.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
And the country at the center of this is Venezuela,
and just to refresh people on what's been happening there,
Nicholas Maduro has been in charge since the death of
Ugo Chavez in twenty thirteen, he's considered a dictator. The
country has deteriorated rapidly. The economy is a disaster, inflation
is terrible, and there's been a mass exodus of people,
(04:41):
including to the United States. What can you tell us
about Venezuela right now?
Speaker 2 (04:45):
The problems in Venezuela actually even date far before Maduro.
They go back to when Hugo Chaves came to office
and the power in the late nineteen nineties. And what
we've seen is since we've seen eight million people having
left the country, massive challenges with the economy, humanitarian shortages,
(05:06):
food shortages, medicine shortages, as well as complete repression by
Nicholas Maduro. Last year, there was an election and Nicholas
Mudu agreed to an election, and the electoral authorities in
Venezuela never released the actual vote counts, but the opposition
was able to get physical electoral records actually more than
(05:29):
eighty three percent of those voting. Of those records that
actually showed that the opposition candidate had won at least
sixty seven percent of the vote. So there was a
big election last year. Outcry from the international community that
the election results weren't respected, but also not a surprise.
Why would Nicholas Mudu respect the results as a dictator,
why would he respect the results of an election where
he loses well?
Speaker 1 (05:50):
And so is this build up of pressure by the
United States an attempt to get him to leave at
the end of the day and try to support the
opposition in Venezuela.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Well, look back to the first Trump administration. At that point,
the US was helping to lead the charge for recognition
what was called the Interim Government of Venezuela, and the
interim president was Wangwaido, and you had dozens of country,
think sixty country around the world that actually shifted their
recognition to the interim government. The US also tried to
(06:21):
use tools such as a humanitarian convoy and other operations
to be able to try to elicit some kind of
rebellion within the ranks of the Venezuela military, and that
just simply didn't happen. And so, while the campaign in
the Caribbean right now is the presence justification for it
is striking alleged drug smuggling boats, there is a lot
of hope among democratic forces and others that this is
(06:44):
actually also mounting pressure on Maduro so that he sees
the massive force nearby his country and he sees as
an opportunity to leave power. The bigger question there is
how do you actually get Maduro to leave power? And
if he leaves power, where does he go. The opposition
in Venezuela has plans for what would happen in the
(07:05):
first hundred hours, first hundred days, etc. But the key
is getting Maduro to leave. And he has been supported
by the military jeremy because especially the elites of the military,
because they all benefit from the illicit activities that he
oversees in Venezuela. From drugs smuggling, to gold smuggling, to
(07:25):
humans smuggling, you name it. These type of illegal activities
are happening in Venezuela right now.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
So you're saying that there is a connection between as
the Trump administration alleges, between Venezuela and drugs coming into
the United States.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
Yeah, Venezuela is not the primary source of drugs coming
into the United States, but Venezuela certainly is a transit
country for drugs coming into the United States. Less production
in Venezuela, but more as a transit destination and not
just the United States. I mean drugs coming from Venezuela
go to Europe, they go to all parts of the world,
and Maduro benefit. It's from having illicit trade in his country,
(08:03):
because he's able to use those illicit resources to pay
off high ranking members of the military and others so
that they stay loyal to him.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
So how has Maduro responded to the build up of
pressure and resources and these attacks on boats by the
United States.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
Well, Maduro's responded by calling civilians to further enlist into
into militias. He's talked about the sovereignty of Venezuelan territory.
He's reached out to one of his benefactors, the Russians,
to provide further support. Of course, with the war in Ukraine,
unlikely that Russia has much capacity to provide further support
(08:43):
to its allies in Venezuela. I think that's also it's
important to note Jeremy Maduro's ties and the security concerns
that has for the United States. The closest of his
ties not just to the Russians, he has ties to
the Iranians. The Chinese buy a lot of his oil.
Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves, and so
(09:04):
that's also very much at the center of these conversations, at.
Speaker 1 (09:09):
The center because the United States wants more access.
Speaker 2 (09:11):
To those reserves. Well, I think it's a it's been
the center because it would be beneficial for the United
States to have access to more oil reserves, especially as
we start to see increasing fragmentation and a global scale,
and so having critical resources close to the homeland is important.
But also how those resources are also used by the
madure regime to be able to line their own pockets
(09:35):
when they're selling them to the Chinese, or to the Iranians,
or to other countries around the world that are not
allies of the United States. And so the challenges that
Maduro places and we talked about this earlier, Jeremy. The
number displays the political prisoners, the humanitarian situation, but Venezuela
also represents a larger region. He's a cancer for the
(09:56):
larger Latin American and Caribbean region. He's a decent stabilizing
impact because whether it's whether it's the migrants, whether it's
Venezuelan gangs or whatnot, the problems in Venezuela extend far
beyond its borders.
Speaker 1 (10:12):
Well as you said, eight million people have left the country,
so that's obviously going to have an impact on all
of Venezuela's neighbors. Let me just before we take a break,
let me just ask you about the two other countries
that have been directly connected to what's happening here, Colombia
and Ecuador. As we heard from rand Paul in mid October,
the US struck this semi submersible vessel. But there were
two survivors and they were taken onto a Navy ship,
(10:35):
but they were not brought to the US. They were
repatriated to Ecuador and Colombia. What do you make of that,
because that involves some level of cooperation by the governments
of those countries with the United States.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
Yeah. Well, Colombia had historically been one of the United
States's closest allies, not only in the Western hemisphere, Jermy,
but I think one of our closest allies around the world.
That relationship has frayed significantly over the last few years
since the Colombian president Gustavo Petro came into power. He
came in a part of his way of governing has
(11:07):
been questioning the basic underlying framework of the US Columbian relationship,
which is on anti drug policy. So the relationship continues,
but it is most precarious state in decades. The Colombian
president has had his visa revote, He's even been sanctioned
by the United States. Columbia is recently listed as decertified
(11:28):
as not being compliant with US anti drug efforts. Equador
is very different. President Noboa there very much in line
with the United States. Ecuador as well has tremendous security
challenges that have overtaken the country in the last few
years and are a top priority for President Noboa and
Ecuador and actually an area in which the US and
(11:48):
Ecuador continue to work even more closely on a partnership
to improve security in that country.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
But overall, then the US is not really facing pushback
from Latin America in a serious way over what it's
doing well.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
It's facing pushed back from Colombia certainly, and the Colombian president,
President Petro during the UN General Assembly in New York
in late September, he even took the streets of New
York to call on US military to disobey the orders
of our presidents. That resulted and his visa being revoked
and Petro essentially doesn't miss an opportunity to condemn the
(12:22):
United States that is ramped up in this first year
of the Trump minstration. But again, the challenges with Columbia
date even back to the Biden administration. Petro, even his
first speech at the UN General Assembly during the Biden administration,
essentially condemned the underlying basis and the underlying framework of
our by that relationship.
Speaker 1 (12:42):
We'll stay with us because in a moment we're going
to talk about something the President has mentioned, which is
a possible land war in Venezuela. One thing Trump did
with Atlanta Councils. Jason Marzak will be right back. Welcome
(13:10):
back to one thing Trump did exclusively on the Middle
Podcast feed. I'm Jeremy Hobson. In this episode, we're talking
about the US strikes against alleged drug boats operating the
Caribbean and Eastern Pacific and how that military action is
escalating tensions with Venezuela. Jason, what do you make of
the military build up that we've talked about around Venezuela
by the US. Is the US preparing for war or
(13:32):
just trying to increase pressure on Maduro?
Speaker 2 (13:35):
I think only the President knows the answer to that question, Jeremy.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
He declined our request for an interview today, but we've
got you instead in that.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
I think that there's a I think a very I
think it's very unlikely that we would see some type
of US ground invasion into Venezuela. We simply don't have
the troop station in the Caribbean. Venezuela also is you
know that there's been comparison to what was done in
Grenada or Panama, but Venezuela is much more difficult terrain,
(14:06):
much better armed. When the US invaded Panama to depose
Manuel nor Diega, the US Southern Command was actually located
in Panama at the time, and so we just don't
have the same level of intelligence in Venezuela, and I
think it's very unlikely to see any type of US
ground incursion into the country. What has been raised is
will there be an escalation of our strikes to begin
(14:29):
to strike targets within Venezuelan territory that are linked to
the drug trade? Right, and that could be a whole
host of different targets that are somehow being used for
illicit drug transits. There's also in Colombia. Important note there's
already in Venezuela. Important note that Colombian armed groups like
(14:49):
the FARC or the ELN that are both gorilla groups
paramilitary that they also have operations in Venezuela, with members
frequently going between Venezuela and Colombia. These are also drug
trafficking groups, and so it's we definitely have the force
posture in the Caribbean and will increasingly have war force
posture for ramping up activities beyond the strikes on the boats.
(15:14):
But it's a question what did those activities look like. Again,
I think it's very unlikely to see any type of
actual ground incursion into the country.
Speaker 1 (15:22):
What is the significance do you think of the latest
Nobel Peace Prize winner, the opposition leader in Venezuela, Maria
Karina Machado, who has said I believe that her Peace
prize should have gone to Donald Trump. I think of
that because in the lead up to the Iraq War
in two thousand and three, I was with NPR's war
(15:42):
correspondent in Turkey and all of the people Kurds, many
of them who eventually took power in Iraq, were there
talking to the media telling them why it was so
important that the US go in and take away the
weapons of mass destruction. And I see Maria Karina Machado,
she would probably come in as the leader if Maduro leaves,
(16:03):
if the US has its way right.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
Well, she's working closely with ed Muno Gonzales, who technically
won the election July of twenty twenty four. The reason
that he won the election rather than her is she
was banned from actually being on the ballot and so
his name was put forth. He's living currently in exile
in Spain. But at Mundo Gonzalez Emmory, according to Machado,
(16:25):
are work very closely together as part of the opposition.
Why does she say that President Trump should have gotten
the prize. I think her hope and the hope of
many in the opposition that this time around, after twenty
five years of Maduro an Chavez dismantling this country, Venezuela
was once one of the most democratic countries in the
(16:49):
entire Western hemisphere. It was a model for democracy. Incredible
natural resources, it's oil reserves we talked about before him,
and so I think that Marie Accardia Machado sees that
this moment right now is perhaps the best moment to
be able to push for some kind of transition, and
(17:09):
her recognition of President Trump with regard to the Peace
Prize is that she's hoping that he's going to continue
efforts that will allow for a transition to democracy in Venezuela.
Speaker 1 (17:20):
Do you see Maduro actually stepping down in the coming
months because of all of this.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
I think Madua would only step down if there was
significant pressure internally to do so, or if there was
significant benefits for him to do so as well. As well.
Stepping down means where does he go. He needs a
country that's going to take him in, and.
Speaker 1 (17:46):
Well, I mean I would assume Russia, Russia or maybe
even China would let him in, don't you think.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
Yeah, I doubt the Chinese, But you know, there's been
talks about Turkey as well. He's pretty close to Turks,
you know. But I think in the same regard, there
has to be the incentive for him to leave as well.
And he has said time and that he doesn't want
to leave, and so he you know, he currently benefits
from the ill gotten resources of the illicit trade that
(18:14):
the country engages him, and he needs to know that
there would be an upside for him in leaving, or
on the contrary, that there is a push internally for
him to leave, a push within the security forces. The
security forces recognize the vulnerability of the country at a
time in which there is such a massive US deployment,
and the fact that they shouldn't put their eggs in
(18:36):
the same basket as Madure anymore because he can't protect them, right,
And so I think there has to be a combination
of perhaps some kind of external incentive, but also an
internal push. And the hope is that the US presence
off the coast of Venezuela can incentivize questioning within the
Venezuelan security forces of whether whether it's really is the
(18:59):
right call for them to have their lot with Maduro.
Speaker 1 (19:02):
So far that Congress has been unable to get the
votes to say to President Trump know, they don't want
these strikes to happen. Do you think, though, if there was,
if there had to be a vote on authorization for
war in Venezuela, even that involved US troops on the ground,
that there would be the votes in Washington to authorize
the president to do that.
Speaker 2 (19:21):
You know, Jeremy, it's so hard to say where there's
could be votes in Washington these days. I think sometimes
Congress can't agree if it's day or night, so hard
to tell exactly where the votes will would stand. But
there's been a number of briefings by US officials to
members of Congress in the last couple of weeks. There's
been a lot of questions from members, i think for
both parties on the ultimate goals of the mission. So
(19:44):
I think those questions would have to be resolved by
the administration for them to get votes in favor of
additional action.
Speaker 1 (19:52):
Let me ask you two more things. One is about
politics in this country in the United States. Of course,
Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, is Cuban American. He's
from Miami. He's deeply involved in what's happening there. How
did the Florida politics play into sort of the push
here to remove Maduro and build up the presence around Venezuela.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
Well, Florida politics are incredibly important. There's a number of
members of the administration that hail from Florida, and many
of the Venezuelan diaspora that have come to the United
States over the last couple of decades are in Florida.
And those are, of course people who want Madua out
of power. I mean, you're not going to find among
(20:37):
the nearly eight million people have left Venezuela, You're not
going to find people who who want Maduro to remain
in power. Right, so otherwise they wouldn't have left. But
for the Secretary Secretary of Rubio, he has focused on
a transition in Venezuela. Bating back to his time in
the Senate. When he was a senator, he would oftimes
lead the charge on different pieces of legislation to try
(20:59):
to bring about a change in Venezuela. And so he's
taken that to his role as Secretary of State. As
you mentioned, you his Cuban ancestry. He sees what happens
to a country from a very personal perspective when a
dictator is allowed to thrive and to rule, and so
he has a personal desire to want to rid Venezuela
(21:20):
of Maduro. And you see, I think the US policy
is reflected by the presence that Secretary Rubio has within
the administration. And I think it's also important to point out, Jeremy,
that the National Defense Strategy is going to be coming
out soon, and there's expectation that there'll be a much
higher focus on the Western hemisphere, which, again from a
(21:42):
non Venezuela border perspective, shows the importance of fixing what's
happening in Venezuela for a broader US strategy, given the
negative implications that Maduro has written large for the hemisphere.
Speaker 1 (21:54):
And the other thing I want to ask you about
is the migrants eight million, as you said, who have
left Venezuela. This administration, the Trump administration has been laser
focused on people coming into this country, and they've actually
removed the temporary protective status for the hundreds of thousands
of Venezuelans that got it under the bid administration. How
much of this do you think is about the overall
(22:16):
immigration strategy, just we need to fix things in Venezuela
so that we don't have so many people leaving, destabilizing
potentially other countries in the region and coming to the
United States.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
I think that migration is certainly a part of it.
When you look at the US priorities in the Western hemisphere,
it's stopping drug trafficking, and it's also the northward flow
of migrants. Now a lot of these Venezuelan migrants are
the numbers coming to the US have significantly reduced, both
in the Trump administration but also because of efforts that
have been taken by some of our partners in Central
(22:47):
America to be able to have some choke points along
the migrant route through Central America to the United States.
And so we're not seeing the numbers of Venezuelans coming
to the United States as we once were, and we're
seeing more migrants staying within intraregional migration right now as well.
I will say that where the US has received cooperation
from Maduro are ice flights of migrants being deported from
(23:10):
the US back to Venezuela, and so those flights had
been continuing, and that's an important priority of course for
the administration. The migration will continue to be a priority.
And I think as well, what will be a priority is,
you know, if there is a transition in Venezuela, how
to ensure that that transition ultimately benefits US economic interests
(23:35):
and US security interests as well. So there's long been
a real concern about, again the role of foreign actors
in Venezuela. And going back to Secretary of Rubio as
well in his Cuban ancestry, it's important to note the
link between Cuba and Venezuela. There's so many Cuban intelligence
officers that are embedded within the security apparatus in Venezuela.
(23:57):
This is one of the reasons that's been very difficult
for the military have some type of a rebellion because
of the ways in which Venezuela has adopted some of
the Cuban tactics to be able to put down any
type of rebellion against the government.
Speaker 1 (24:14):
Do you think that this whole situation that we've been
talking about is something that Americans should be paying attention
to right now more than they are. I mean, there
are so many other things going on where you know,
possibly at the end of the government shutdown, there's obviously
there are wars overseas, there's the economic problems, there's the tariffs,
everything else. Do you think that this situation is something
(24:34):
people ought to be paying attention to.
Speaker 2 (24:36):
I do, Jeremy, and that's you know, partly because I
run the Latin America work here. But I think I
think the region is incredibly important. I think the Western
hemisphere is absolutely vital, and I think also you look
at Venezuela's broader positioning, what it means in so far
is again foreign actors that have a presence in Venezuela
that undermines and threatens you as interested. Again, these are
(24:58):
foreign actors of a presence in our own hemisphere as
well as you look at the potential that Venezuela has
for our broader economic security through its critical resources, and
Venezuela has the potential to turn from one of the
biggest challenges in the Western Hemisphere to one of the
biggest opportunities in this hemisphere.
Speaker 1 (25:19):
That is Jason Marzak, who's vice president and Senior director
at the Atlantic Council's Adrian Arts Latin America Center. Jason,
thank you so much. Thank you Jeremy, and thanks you
for listening to One Thing Trump did. It was produced
by Harrison Patino. Our next middle episode is coming to
your podcast feed later this week. We're going to be
joined by BBC Chief International correspondent Lease do Set to
take your questions on world news. And if you like
(25:42):
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Our theme music was composed by Noah Haidu. I'm Jeremy
Hobson and I'll talk to you soon. Si
Welcome to One Thing Trump Did, available exclusively on the
Middle podcast Feed. I'm Jeremy Hobson, and each week on
this podcast, we pick one thing coming out of the
Trump White House and break it down in a nonpartisan
way with someone who knows what they're talking about. This week,
are one thing is the campaign of military strikes on
alleged drug boats in the Caribbean Sea and the Eastern
(00:36):
Pacific Ocean, and whether the situation could escalate into.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
A war in Venezuela.
Speaker 1 (00:42):
Over the past few months, the US military has carried
out at least seventeen strikes on suspected drug boats, killing
at least sixty seven people. According to Pentagon officials, the
strikes are part of a renewed push to cut off
the flow of narcotics into the United States, but critics,
including some members of Congress in both parties, want more
proof that the boats are being used by drug traffickers,
(01:05):
and they're demanding congressional authorization for the attacks. One of
those critics is Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, a Republican, who
shared his thoughts with Fox News.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
You side, this quote goes against all of our traditions,
So are you condemning the drug boat strikes.
Speaker 3 (01:24):
Well, you have to use a different word that was
left out in this question, and the word would be alleged,
because if we knew that we're drug dealers, we'd know
their names, we'd have evidence. And one of the interesting
thing is is one of the recent explosions, a bunch
of the people on the boats died, but two people survive.
Did we detain them and check them for drugs or
drug residue? Did we gather the evidence from the wreckage
(01:46):
and then prosecute them. No, we just said, oh, well.
Speaker 2 (01:48):
We're going to send you back to your country.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
So I really think that you cannot have a policy
where you just alleged that someone is guilty of something
and then kill them.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
Well, President Trump has defend the strikes, calling them a
message to the cartels and anyone helping them. He's also
hinted that the operations could expand, possibly including military strikes
within Venezuela. For more, I'm joined by Jason Marzak, vice
president and Senior Director at the Atlantic Council's Adrian R.
Latin America Center. Jason's great to have you here.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
Jeremy, great to be with you as well.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
Well, what more do you know as an expert in
this area about the strikes themselves, or do you know
any more than what's being reported publicly.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
Well, the strikes are part of the largest military build
up that we've seen in the Caribbean decades. You have
multiple US ships, US planes, US personnel that have all
been deployed to the Caribbean in the last couple of months.
And then of course the USS gerald Ford has also
been dispatched to the Caribbean.
Speaker 1 (02:47):
That's the largest aircraft carrier that the United States has.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
The largest aircraft carrier, the isaas has the gerald Ford
as of recently. I was just looking again, it's still
sitting near Gibraltar. Different reasons of why that might be happening,
but it has been deployed to the Caribbean as well.
So we see this massive build up, and the administration
has justified these attacks by saying that drug cartels are
(03:10):
unlawful combatants and the US is an armed conflict with them,
and that these strikes are part of the President's push
to reduce drug trafficking coming to the United States.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
But has the administration explained why there's not been any
due process that as Rand Paul said, they're just killing people,
saying this is a drug trafficker. We're going to kill
them rather than arrest them bring them to the United States.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
No. I mean, the administration has been clear in saying
that from their perspective that these boats are carrying drugs
that would have otherwise come to the United States. That
each sunken boat, the President said, would save about twenty
five thousand American lives, but not giving justification of why
we've shifted strategy from what would otherwise have happened, which
(03:56):
is to board the vessel, give warning, board the vessel,
and then check the vessel for drugs. It's a signal
not just in the Caribbean, but we've also seen these
strikes in the Pacific. But I think it's also a
signal to other countries around the hemisphere that the President
has also expressed concerns about their drug trafficking, of the
steps to which this administration will go to prevent drugs
(04:18):
from reaching the US borders.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
And the country at the center of this is Venezuela,
and just to refresh people on what's been happening there,
Nicholas Maduro has been in charge since the death of
Ugo Chavez in twenty thirteen, he's considered a dictator. The
country has deteriorated rapidly. The economy is a disaster, inflation
is terrible, and there's been a mass exodus of people,
(04:41):
including to the United States. What can you tell us
about Venezuela right now?
Speaker 2 (04:45):
The problems in Venezuela actually even date far before Maduro.
They go back to when Hugo Chaves came to office
and the power in the late nineteen nineties. And what
we've seen is since we've seen eight million people having
left the country, massive challenges with the economy, humanitarian shortages,
(05:06):
food shortages, medicine shortages, as well as complete repression by
Nicholas Maduro. Last year, there was an election and Nicholas
Mudu agreed to an election, and the electoral authorities in
Venezuela never released the actual vote counts, but the opposition
was able to get physical electoral records actually more than
(05:29):
eighty three percent of those voting. Of those records that
actually showed that the opposition candidate had won at least
sixty seven percent of the vote. So there was a
big election last year. Outcry from the international community that
the election results weren't respected, but also not a surprise.
Why would Nicholas Mudu respect the results as a dictator,
why would he respect the results of an election where
he loses well?
Speaker 1 (05:50):
And so is this build up of pressure by the
United States an attempt to get him to leave at
the end of the day and try to support the
opposition in Venezuela.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Well, look back to the first Trump administration. At that point,
the US was helping to lead the charge for recognition
what was called the Interim Government of Venezuela, and the
interim president was Wangwaido, and you had dozens of country,
think sixty country around the world that actually shifted their
recognition to the interim government. The US also tried to
(06:21):
use tools such as a humanitarian convoy and other operations
to be able to try to elicit some kind of
rebellion within the ranks of the Venezuela military, and that
just simply didn't happen. And so, while the campaign in
the Caribbean right now is the presence justification for it
is striking alleged drug smuggling boats, there is a lot
of hope among democratic forces and others that this is
(06:44):
actually also mounting pressure on Maduro so that he sees
the massive force nearby his country and he sees as
an opportunity to leave power. The bigger question there is
how do you actually get Maduro to leave power? And
if he leaves power, where does he go. The opposition
in Venezuela has plans for what would happen in the
(07:05):
first hundred hours, first hundred days, etc. But the key
is getting Maduro to leave. And he has been supported
by the military jeremy because especially the elites of the military,
because they all benefit from the illicit activities that he
oversees in Venezuela. From drugs smuggling, to gold smuggling, to
(07:25):
humans smuggling, you name it. These type of illegal activities
are happening in Venezuela right now.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
So you're saying that there is a connection between as
the Trump administration alleges, between Venezuela and drugs coming into
the United States.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
Yeah, Venezuela is not the primary source of drugs coming
into the United States, but Venezuela certainly is a transit
country for drugs coming into the United States. Less production
in Venezuela, but more as a transit destination and not
just the United States. I mean drugs coming from Venezuela
go to Europe, they go to all parts of the world,
and Maduro benefit. It's from having illicit trade in his country,
(08:03):
because he's able to use those illicit resources to pay
off high ranking members of the military and others so
that they stay loyal to him.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
So how has Maduro responded to the build up of
pressure and resources and these attacks on boats by the
United States.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
Well, Maduro's responded by calling civilians to further enlist into
into militias. He's talked about the sovereignty of Venezuelan territory.
He's reached out to one of his benefactors, the Russians,
to provide further support. Of course, with the war in Ukraine,
unlikely that Russia has much capacity to provide further support
(08:43):
to its allies in Venezuela. I think that's also it's
important to note Jeremy Maduro's ties and the security concerns
that has for the United States. The closest of his
ties not just to the Russians, he has ties to
the Iranians. The Chinese buy a lot of his oil.
Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves, and so
(09:04):
that's also very much at the center of these conversations, at.
Speaker 1 (09:09):
The center because the United States wants more access.
Speaker 2 (09:11):
To those reserves. Well, I think it's a it's been
the center because it would be beneficial for the United
States to have access to more oil reserves, especially as
we start to see increasing fragmentation and a global scale,
and so having critical resources close to the homeland is important.
But also how those resources are also used by the
madure regime to be able to line their own pockets
(09:35):
when they're selling them to the Chinese, or to the Iranians,
or to other countries around the world that are not
allies of the United States. And so the challenges that
Maduro places and we talked about this earlier, Jeremy. The
number displays the political prisoners, the humanitarian situation, but Venezuela
also represents a larger region. He's a cancer for the
(09:56):
larger Latin American and Caribbean region. He's a decent stabilizing
impact because whether it's whether it's the migrants, whether it's
Venezuelan gangs or whatnot, the problems in Venezuela extend far
beyond its borders.
Speaker 1 (10:12):
Well as you said, eight million people have left the country,
so that's obviously going to have an impact on all
of Venezuela's neighbors. Let me just before we take a break,
let me just ask you about the two other countries
that have been directly connected to what's happening here, Colombia
and Ecuador. As we heard from rand Paul in mid October,
the US struck this semi submersible vessel. But there were
two survivors and they were taken onto a Navy ship,
(10:35):
but they were not brought to the US. They were
repatriated to Ecuador and Colombia. What do you make of that,
because that involves some level of cooperation by the governments
of those countries with the United States.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
Yeah. Well, Colombia had historically been one of the United
States's closest allies, not only in the Western hemisphere, Jermy,
but I think one of our closest allies around the world.
That relationship has frayed significantly over the last few years
since the Colombian president Gustavo Petro came into power. He
came in a part of his way of governing has
(11:07):
been questioning the basic underlying framework of the US Columbian relationship,
which is on anti drug policy. So the relationship continues,
but it is most precarious state in decades. The Colombian
president has had his visa revote, He's even been sanctioned
by the United States. Columbia is recently listed as decertified
(11:28):
as not being compliant with US anti drug efforts. Equador
is very different. President Noboa there very much in line
with the United States. Ecuador as well has tremendous security
challenges that have overtaken the country in the last few
years and are a top priority for President Noboa and
Ecuador and actually an area in which the US and
(11:48):
Ecuador continue to work even more closely on a partnership
to improve security in that country.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
But overall, then the US is not really facing pushback
from Latin America in a serious way over what it's
doing well.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
It's facing pushed back from Colombia certainly, and the Colombian president,
President Petro during the UN General Assembly in New York
in late September, he even took the streets of New
York to call on US military to disobey the orders
of our presidents. That resulted and his visa being revoked
and Petro essentially doesn't miss an opportunity to condemn the
(12:22):
United States that is ramped up in this first year
of the Trump minstration. But again, the challenges with Columbia
date even back to the Biden administration. Petro, even his
first speech at the UN General Assembly during the Biden administration,
essentially condemned the underlying basis and the underlying framework of
our by that relationship.
Speaker 1 (12:42):
We'll stay with us because in a moment we're going
to talk about something the President has mentioned, which is
a possible land war in Venezuela. One thing Trump did
with Atlanta Councils. Jason Marzak will be right back. Welcome
(13:10):
back to one thing Trump did exclusively on the Middle
Podcast feed. I'm Jeremy Hobson. In this episode, we're talking
about the US strikes against alleged drug boats operating the
Caribbean and Eastern Pacific and how that military action is
escalating tensions with Venezuela. Jason, what do you make of
the military build up that we've talked about around Venezuela
by the US. Is the US preparing for war or
(13:32):
just trying to increase pressure on Maduro?
Speaker 2 (13:35):
I think only the President knows the answer to that question, Jeremy.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
He declined our request for an interview today, but we've
got you instead in that.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
I think that there's a I think a very I
think it's very unlikely that we would see some type
of US ground invasion into Venezuela. We simply don't have
the troop station in the Caribbean. Venezuela also is you
know that there's been comparison to what was done in
Grenada or Panama, but Venezuela is much more difficult terrain,
(14:06):
much better armed. When the US invaded Panama to depose
Manuel nor Diega, the US Southern Command was actually located
in Panama at the time, and so we just don't
have the same level of intelligence in Venezuela, and I
think it's very unlikely to see any type of US
ground incursion into the country. What has been raised is
will there be an escalation of our strikes to begin
(14:29):
to strike targets within Venezuelan territory that are linked to
the drug trade? Right, and that could be a whole
host of different targets that are somehow being used for
illicit drug transits. There's also in Colombia. Important note there's
already in Venezuela. Important note that Colombian armed groups like
(14:49):
the FARC or the ELN that are both gorilla groups
paramilitary that they also have operations in Venezuela, with members
frequently going between Venezuela and Colombia. These are also drug
trafficking groups, and so it's we definitely have the force
posture in the Caribbean and will increasingly have war force
posture for ramping up activities beyond the strikes on the boats.
(15:14):
But it's a question what did those activities look like. Again,
I think it's very unlikely to see any type of
actual ground incursion into the country.
Speaker 1 (15:22):
What is the significance do you think of the latest
Nobel Peace Prize winner, the opposition leader in Venezuela, Maria
Karina Machado, who has said I believe that her Peace
prize should have gone to Donald Trump. I think of
that because in the lead up to the Iraq War
in two thousand and three, I was with NPR's war
(15:42):
correspondent in Turkey and all of the people Kurds, many
of them who eventually took power in Iraq, were there
talking to the media telling them why it was so
important that the US go in and take away the
weapons of mass destruction. And I see Maria Karina Machado,
she would probably come in as the leader if Maduro leaves,
(16:03):
if the US has its way right.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
Well, she's working closely with ed Muno Gonzales, who technically
won the election July of twenty twenty four. The reason
that he won the election rather than her is she
was banned from actually being on the ballot and so
his name was put forth. He's living currently in exile
in Spain. But at Mundo Gonzalez Emmory, according to Machado,
(16:25):
are work very closely together as part of the opposition.
Why does she say that President Trump should have gotten
the prize. I think her hope and the hope of
many in the opposition that this time around, after twenty
five years of Maduro an Chavez dismantling this country, Venezuela
was once one of the most democratic countries in the
(16:49):
entire Western hemisphere. It was a model for democracy. Incredible
natural resources, it's oil reserves we talked about before him,
and so I think that Marie Accardia Machado sees that
this moment right now is perhaps the best moment to
be able to push for some kind of transition, and
(17:09):
her recognition of President Trump with regard to the Peace
Prize is that she's hoping that he's going to continue
efforts that will allow for a transition to democracy in Venezuela.
Speaker 1 (17:20):
Do you see Maduro actually stepping down in the coming
months because of all of this.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
I think Madua would only step down if there was
significant pressure internally to do so, or if there was
significant benefits for him to do so as well. As well.
Stepping down means where does he go. He needs a
country that's going to take him in, and.
Speaker 1 (17:46):
Well, I mean I would assume Russia, Russia or maybe
even China would let him in, don't you think.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
Yeah, I doubt the Chinese, But you know, there's been
talks about Turkey as well. He's pretty close to Turks,
you know. But I think in the same regard, there
has to be the incentive for him to leave as well.
And he has said time and that he doesn't want
to leave, and so he you know, he currently benefits
from the ill gotten resources of the illicit trade that
(18:14):
the country engages him, and he needs to know that
there would be an upside for him in leaving, or
on the contrary, that there is a push internally for
him to leave, a push within the security forces. The
security forces recognize the vulnerability of the country at a
time in which there is such a massive US deployment,
and the fact that they shouldn't put their eggs in
(18:36):
the same basket as Madure anymore because he can't protect them, right,
And so I think there has to be a combination
of perhaps some kind of external incentive, but also an
internal push. And the hope is that the US presence
off the coast of Venezuela can incentivize questioning within the
Venezuelan security forces of whether whether it's really is the
(18:59):
right call for them to have their lot with Maduro.
Speaker 1 (19:02):
So far that Congress has been unable to get the
votes to say to President Trump know, they don't want
these strikes to happen. Do you think, though, if there was,
if there had to be a vote on authorization for
war in Venezuela, even that involved US troops on the ground,
that there would be the votes in Washington to authorize
the president to do that.
Speaker 2 (19:21):
You know, Jeremy, it's so hard to say where there's
could be votes in Washington these days. I think sometimes
Congress can't agree if it's day or night, so hard
to tell exactly where the votes will would stand. But
there's been a number of briefings by US officials to
members of Congress in the last couple of weeks. There's
been a lot of questions from members, i think for
both parties on the ultimate goals of the mission. So
(19:44):
I think those questions would have to be resolved by
the administration for them to get votes in favor of
additional action.
Speaker 1 (19:52):
Let me ask you two more things. One is about
politics in this country in the United States. Of course,
Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, is Cuban American. He's
from Miami. He's deeply involved in what's happening there. How
did the Florida politics play into sort of the push
here to remove Maduro and build up the presence around Venezuela.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
Well, Florida politics are incredibly important. There's a number of
members of the administration that hail from Florida, and many
of the Venezuelan diaspora that have come to the United
States over the last couple of decades are in Florida.
And those are, of course people who want Madua out
of power. I mean, you're not going to find among
(20:37):
the nearly eight million people have left Venezuela, You're not
going to find people who who want Maduro to remain
in power. Right, so otherwise they wouldn't have left. But
for the Secretary Secretary of Rubio, he has focused on
a transition in Venezuela. Bating back to his time in
the Senate. When he was a senator, he would oftimes
lead the charge on different pieces of legislation to try
(20:59):
to bring about a change in Venezuela. And so he's
taken that to his role as Secretary of State. As
you mentioned, you his Cuban ancestry. He sees what happens
to a country from a very personal perspective when a
dictator is allowed to thrive and to rule, and so
he has a personal desire to want to rid Venezuela
(21:20):
of Maduro. And you see, I think the US policy
is reflected by the presence that Secretary Rubio has within
the administration. And I think it's also important to point out, Jeremy,
that the National Defense Strategy is going to be coming
out soon, and there's expectation that there'll be a much
higher focus on the Western hemisphere, which, again from a
(21:42):
non Venezuela border perspective, shows the importance of fixing what's
happening in Venezuela for a broader US strategy, given the
negative implications that Maduro has written large for the hemisphere.
Speaker 1 (21:54):
And the other thing I want to ask you about
is the migrants eight million, as you said, who have
left Venezuela. This administration, the Trump administration has been laser
focused on people coming into this country, and they've actually
removed the temporary protective status for the hundreds of thousands
of Venezuelans that got it under the bid administration. How
much of this do you think is about the overall
(22:16):
immigration strategy, just we need to fix things in Venezuela
so that we don't have so many people leaving, destabilizing
potentially other countries in the region and coming to the
United States.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
I think that migration is certainly a part of it.
When you look at the US priorities in the Western hemisphere,
it's stopping drug trafficking, and it's also the northward flow
of migrants. Now a lot of these Venezuelan migrants are
the numbers coming to the US have significantly reduced, both
in the Trump administration but also because of efforts that
have been taken by some of our partners in Central
(22:47):
America to be able to have some choke points along
the migrant route through Central America to the United States.
And so we're not seeing the numbers of Venezuelans coming
to the United States as we once were, and we're
seeing more migrants staying within intraregional migration right now as well.
I will say that where the US has received cooperation
from Maduro are ice flights of migrants being deported from
(23:10):
the US back to Venezuela, and so those flights had
been continuing, and that's an important priority of course for
the administration. The migration will continue to be a priority.
And I think as well, what will be a priority is,
you know, if there is a transition in Venezuela, how
to ensure that that transition ultimately benefits US economic interests
(23:35):
and US security interests as well. So there's long been
a real concern about, again the role of foreign actors
in Venezuela. And going back to Secretary of Rubio as
well in his Cuban ancestry, it's important to note the
link between Cuba and Venezuela. There's so many Cuban intelligence
officers that are embedded within the security apparatus in Venezuela.
(23:57):
This is one of the reasons that's been very difficult
for the military have some type of a rebellion because
of the ways in which Venezuela has adopted some of
the Cuban tactics to be able to put down any
type of rebellion against the government.
Speaker 1 (24:14):
Do you think that this whole situation that we've been
talking about is something that Americans should be paying attention
to right now more than they are. I mean, there
are so many other things going on where you know,
possibly at the end of the government shutdown, there's obviously
there are wars overseas, there's the economic problems, there's the tariffs,
everything else. Do you think that this situation is something
(24:34):
people ought to be paying attention to.
Speaker 2 (24:36):
I do, Jeremy, and that's you know, partly because I
run the Latin America work here. But I think I
think the region is incredibly important. I think the Western
hemisphere is absolutely vital, and I think also you look
at Venezuela's broader positioning, what it means in so far
is again foreign actors that have a presence in Venezuela
that undermines and threatens you as interested. Again, these are
(24:58):
foreign actors of a presence in our own hemisphere as
well as you look at the potential that Venezuela has
for our broader economic security through its critical resources, and
Venezuela has the potential to turn from one of the
biggest challenges in the Western Hemisphere to one of the
biggest opportunities in this hemisphere.
Speaker 1 (25:19):
That is Jason Marzak, who's vice president and Senior director
at the Atlantic Council's Adrian Arts Latin America Center. Jason,
thank you so much. Thank you Jeremy, and thanks you
for listening to One Thing Trump did. It was produced
by Harrison Patino. Our next middle episode is coming to
your podcast feed later this week. We're going to be
joined by BBC Chief International correspondent Lease do Set to
take your questions on world news. And if you like
(25:42):
this podcast, please rate it wherever you get your podcasts.
Our theme music was composed by Noah Haidu. I'm Jeremy
Hobson and I'll talk to you soon. Si
Host
Jeremy Hobson
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