December 2, 2025 • 14 mins
In this episode of One Thing Trump Did, we talk with Todd Gleason, who hosts the Closing Market Report for Illinois Public Media, about how tariffs are impacting American farmers. Soybean farmers are being hit particularly hard because of a drop in purchases from the largest importer of soybeans, China. Now there's talk of an aid package, which would be paid for by taxpayers. #tariffs #farming #agriculture #USDA #China #Trump #BrookeRollins
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
This is one thing Trump did, available exclusively on the
Middle podcast feed. I'm Jeremy Hobson. You know, we used
to call this OTTD, but then I was talking to
somebody who listens to our podcast every weekend. He said
he had no idea what OTTD meant. So we are
just taking that off of the title and now it'll
just be whatever the topic of our show is. So
each week, as you know, we pick one thing coming
(00:35):
out of the Trump White House. We break it down
in a nonpartisan way with someone who knows what they're
talking about. So we've talked before about the Trump tariffs,
which are having an effect on the prices of just
about everything we buy in America because so much of
it comes from other countries, or at least components come
from other countries. But what about the things the United
States sends overseas well. One area of exports that's been
(00:59):
affected by the tariffs is agriculture. The US is the
world's largest exporter of corn and the second largest exporter
of soybeans, and among the largest importers of both of
those crops is China. Now, after a meeting between President
Hijinping of China and President Trump, Earlier this year, China
agreed to purchase twelve million metric tons of soybeans by
(01:20):
the end of the year, but so far China has
purchased a lot less than that. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rawlins
talked about that with CNBC's Andrew Ross sorkin.
Speaker 2 (01:30):
How is that pledge if that is a real pledge
and China has not confirmed that pledge going to be
made in that quick a time.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
Andrew, thank you. We're actually about a million and a
half metric tons. But your point is still sellient, right
that a million and a half of twelve million. We've
got a significant way to go. I know they are
inking the deal this week or next week. Again, every
sign is their commitment remains true that they will indeed
buy or purchase twelve million metric tons or put the
(01:58):
order in. It does that mean we'll move twelve million
metric tons by the end of December, but it means
that those orders will come in according to their commitment
and their promise to our president and to Secretary Besson
into Ambassador Greer.
Speaker 1 (02:11):
So again we have every.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
Indication that those will continue to move even if the
purchase order comes in before the end of December. Those
will move early next year.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
So even if you're not a farmer, here's how this
affects you. You, as a taxpayer could be on the
hook for a bailout for farmers who are being negatively
impacted by the trade war. For this episode of One
Thing Trump Did, I'm joined by Todd Gleeson, who hosts
the Closing Market Report for Illinois Public Media. Todd, great
to have you on.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
Hey, good to be with you too, Jeremy, thank you.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
Let's start with the big picture. How are farmers overall
being affected by the trade war and the tariffs?
Speaker 2 (02:46):
Well, let's start. We'll start with actually the politics. So
farmers are about seventy thirty split on Trump as best
I can tell, just on the politics on the trade.
They are all in on China as it relates to
trade and how the United States should deal with China,
meaning they want to make sure that China is not
(03:08):
into the marketplace as deeply and entrenched in economies across
the planet as maybe they are at the moment. So
I think that will set the tone kind of as
where they are as it's related to trade. They understood
going into the second term that it might be based
(03:29):
on the first term and that they would need to
be able to hold on through that process. Now they've
had several really good years, and so they were confident
that that was going to be the case. I think
they may have forgotten that in the first Trump administration,
that trade war, there was a fall there twenty eighteen
(03:52):
where we didn't ship any soybeans to China. That has
a big impact, actually, I think a bigger impact the
last time around all the market place than this time around.
This time around, I think they've kind of they were
all in, they've sort of forgotten about it, and now
they're thinking, well, maybe we do need something back from
the Trump administration again. In fact, they probably were thinking
(04:14):
that was going to come anyway, because that happened the
last time. Market facilitation payments called MFPs.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
Are soybean farmers the ones who are most affected by
the tariffs right.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Now, without a doubt, soybean you know, Swabean farmers, who
are generally corn farmers as well, so farmers across the
twelve states in the Midwest, which is the primary place
in order for soybeans, it is Illinois, first, Iowa, and
then Minnesota and Nebraska. The Dakota's, Indiana are all in there.
(04:50):
So there are twelve minut western states that run from
North Dakota down to Kansas and across Missouri, Illinois, Ohio,
and then up to the Great Lake states of Michigan
and Minnesota, Iowa.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
And they sell most of their product to China, while about.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
Half of the beans go out of the export market,
so we keep half and the other half kind of
goes out into the export market as soybeans go. Corns
a little different story, but at corn we don't really
need to talk about today because China sometimes is in
but rarely, rarely is in the marketplace for corn. But
soybean's clearly there is an impact. We deal with soybeans
(05:33):
on a global marketplace all the time, and we have
competition from Brazil. They surpassed us a few years ago
as it relates to total production of soybeans, and that
did not make producers very very happy here in the
United States. Actually, we talked about that with them a
lot in my job with the farm Dock team, the
agricultural economists here on campus University of Illinois Extension. We
(05:58):
were focusing a great deal with them, and then on
the air at the Illinois public media during the closing
market report on Brazil as they were developing their marketplace,
and farmers were really interested. I mean they were just
curious and they really wanted to know. This is the
first year they've been a lot less curious because Brazil
already took the market. They're number one in the export market,
(06:19):
and they don't want it. They don't want them to
be even bigger.
Speaker 1 (06:22):
How long have US soybean farmers been selling so much
of their crop to China?
Speaker 2 (06:28):
The Chinese have for the last decade been the primary
importer of soybeans across the planet.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
And are there other big customers? I mean, we're selling
them also to Europe, to Mexico, to other countries around
the world. Or does the rest of the stuff that
has produced a lot of it stay here in the
United States.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
A lot of it stays here in the United States,
but it is exported to other countries across the planet,
other countries in Asia, particular, corn goes to Japan and
to Mexico. Ethanol goes to Canada made from corn. Of course,
of this twelve million metric tons that you talked about
up front, which was supposed to happen after the Trump
administration announced that China would be buying twelve million metric tons,
(07:13):
which for me is easier to think about as four
hundred and forty million bushels.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
Roughly doesn't mean anything different to me when you say
it that way better.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
Okay, with the exception that they bought one point two
million bushels, So when you think about that, you were like, wait,
wait a second, they bought one point They have a
lot to buy. They have a lot to buy. They
could get it bought, they couldn't get it shipped.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
So the farmers don't think that that promise that the
Trump administration says China made is actually going to be kept.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
Well, I think they believe that it will be kept.
I don't think they believe it will be kept in
a timely manner.
Speaker 1 (07:48):
If that's not kept, then what happens to the soybeans
that have been produced in all of these states that
you mentioned? I mean, did you just sit there? Do
Do they have to get rid of it? Can they
sell it to somebody else?
Speaker 2 (08:01):
What's going to happen, well, generally speaking, is that it
gets cheap enough and it gets sold. Eventually it will
get used or it ends up being left over. So
there is USDA every month puts out a balance sheet
that has a number at the end that says how
much is left, what's left in the bin When we
get to the end of the marketing year, which comes
at the end of August, and at that point you
(08:24):
can tell how much of a crop is left. We
like to have about ten percent, so they're twelve months
in a year, right, so not quite like to have
a little bit more than a month's supply left. However,
when it gets bigger than that, the price goes down,
and when it gets smaller than that, the price goes
way up because people get concerned that we're not going
to have enough left.
Speaker 1 (08:43):
And just to give people a sense, by the way,
that the prices of soybeans have fallen about thirty four
percent since twenty twenty one, so they're already a lot
lower than they used to be. Todd take us back
to the last trade war under the first Trump administration.
What happened then and what did the farmers get in
terms of a bailout?
Speaker 2 (09:03):
So the farmers got many billions of dollars at that
point in bailout. I want to say the number is
twenty eight the president at the time wanted to go
to war with China as it's related to trade. Agriculture
was the only thing they were really working on in
the current timeframe as trade, and there were many other
(09:23):
things that were on the list, but ag steal or
really the primaries. Unlike this time around, where everything is
on the board, where tariffs are going on everything, it
was mostly for them about agriculture from the Chinese side,
that's what they were importing from the United States, and
the US was worried about agriculture. They were worried about steel,
(09:47):
They were worried about China stealing technology from the United States.
That never got really taken care of this. There was
a phase one and a Phase two of agreements that
were supposed to take place with the Chin did not
live up to the Phase one agreement never bothered actually
to even talk about Phase two, which was see how
(10:07):
do we deal with technology and other kinds of things
that we want to talk with China about in trade.
The billions of dollars that came to farmers came because
the President said out loud, if the Chinese won't buy
our soybeans, will just pay soybean farmers.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
And that's likely now to happen again.
Speaker 2 (10:28):
It seems like it appears that will be the case,
but it has some interesting twists. First, because they have
to find the money to begin with. They have been
dragging their feet for some time because this was talked
about in the early summer months. They knew it was
going to come. It was talked about again in the fall,
(10:48):
and it's always been said, well, we'll pay our farmers,
but we really want to see if we can get
a trade deal done. They this time around, they didn't
want to pay producers and they been dragging their feet
about how to do that. I think part of it
is trying to figure out how to get Congress to
help put the money back in when it comes.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
To the farmers. Farm subsidies exist even when we're not
in a trade war, right.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
True, Absolutely, each and every year that there are farm
subsidies in way of safety nets because it is a
national security issue. You don't want to lose too many farmers,
and we don't really have that many farmers around. Surprisingly
the number the number is actually freakishly low, and so
you want security of people who can work the land
(11:35):
and raise crops. So the things that you would see
from soybeans. If you pick up anything any can in
the store, you'll probably see vegetable oil, which quite likely
is soybean oil, or you might see soybean proteins someplace.
It's listed in almost everything, but it's always in a
secondary product.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
Why, Todd, do you think that what's happening with the
soybean farmers should matter to our listeners who are not farmers.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
They should care because trade is important to democratic ideals.
Pre trade is important to democratic ideals, and so that's
the reason they should care about it. Whether they like
the way the Trump administration is going about it or
not matters. That's a political question, But just caring about
trade really matters for the world. It generally will make
(12:29):
things better. If we are the country where everything is built,
we can't consume it all. I mean, you have to
have another partner to help consume it. That drives labor.
But if we're building things, that doesn't mean that our
labor force is going to be richer. It just means
that everybody else came up, Todd.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
With all of the other things that are going on
right now, I just finally want to ask you. You know,
we've been talking about the tariffs and soybeans and China
buying the soybeans or not buying the soybeans. But there's
also you know, there's major immigration crackdown. We know that
a lot of people that work on farms are not
born and raised in the United States, many of them
(13:07):
probably undocumented in some places. What is the biggest issue
for farmers right now? Is it the tariffs or is
it other things?
Speaker 2 (13:14):
Depends on the farm you ask. I would say for
livestock producers, immigrant you know, not having immigrant workers is
a real issue. For the truck crop producers in California,
serious issue. That influx of workers who are willing to
be in the field on hot days and then to
go back across the border is really important. And that
(13:36):
labor for that's not a new labor force. That labor
force has been moving in and out of the fields
since the book Grapes of Wrath was right right right.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
That is Todd Gleeson, who hosts the Closing Market Report
for Illinois Public Media. Todd, thanks so much for coming
on the show.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
Oh you're so welcome, Jeremy, I so happy to be here, and.
Speaker 1 (13:54):
Thanks to you for listening to one thing. Trump did
it was produced by Harrison Patino. Our next middle episode
is coming to your podcas feed later this week. We're
going to be asking what the state of your economy
is right now. If you like this podcast, please rate
it wherever you get your podcasts. Our theme music was
composed by Noah Haidu. I'm Jeremy Hobson and talk to
you soon.
This is one thing Trump did, available exclusively on the
Middle podcast feed. I'm Jeremy Hobson. You know, we used
to call this OTTD, but then I was talking to
somebody who listens to our podcast every weekend. He said
he had no idea what OTTD meant. So we are
just taking that off of the title and now it'll
just be whatever the topic of our show is. So
each week, as you know, we pick one thing coming
(00:35):
out of the Trump White House. We break it down
in a nonpartisan way with someone who knows what they're
talking about. So we've talked before about the Trump tariffs,
which are having an effect on the prices of just
about everything we buy in America because so much of
it comes from other countries, or at least components come
from other countries. But what about the things the United
States sends overseas well. One area of exports that's been
(00:59):
affected by the tariffs is agriculture. The US is the
world's largest exporter of corn and the second largest exporter
of soybeans, and among the largest importers of both of
those crops is China. Now, after a meeting between President
Hijinping of China and President Trump, Earlier this year, China
agreed to purchase twelve million metric tons of soybeans by
(01:20):
the end of the year, but so far China has
purchased a lot less than that. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rawlins
talked about that with CNBC's Andrew Ross sorkin.
Speaker 2 (01:30):
How is that pledge if that is a real pledge
and China has not confirmed that pledge going to be
made in that quick a time.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
Andrew, thank you. We're actually about a million and a
half metric tons. But your point is still sellient, right
that a million and a half of twelve million. We've
got a significant way to go. I know they are
inking the deal this week or next week. Again, every
sign is their commitment remains true that they will indeed
buy or purchase twelve million metric tons or put the
(01:58):
order in. It does that mean we'll move twelve million
metric tons by the end of December, but it means
that those orders will come in according to their commitment
and their promise to our president and to Secretary Besson
into Ambassador Greer.
Speaker 1 (02:11):
So again we have every.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
Indication that those will continue to move even if the
purchase order comes in before the end of December. Those
will move early next year.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
So even if you're not a farmer, here's how this
affects you. You, as a taxpayer could be on the
hook for a bailout for farmers who are being negatively
impacted by the trade war. For this episode of One
Thing Trump Did, I'm joined by Todd Gleeson, who hosts
the Closing Market Report for Illinois Public Media. Todd, great
to have you on.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
Hey, good to be with you too, Jeremy, thank you.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
Let's start with the big picture. How are farmers overall
being affected by the trade war and the tariffs?
Speaker 2 (02:46):
Well, let's start. We'll start with actually the politics. So
farmers are about seventy thirty split on Trump as best
I can tell, just on the politics on the trade.
They are all in on China as it relates to
trade and how the United States should deal with China,
meaning they want to make sure that China is not
(03:08):
into the marketplace as deeply and entrenched in economies across
the planet as maybe they are at the moment. So
I think that will set the tone kind of as
where they are as it's related to trade. They understood
going into the second term that it might be based
(03:29):
on the first term and that they would need to
be able to hold on through that process. Now they've
had several really good years, and so they were confident
that that was going to be the case. I think
they may have forgotten that in the first Trump administration,
that trade war, there was a fall there twenty eighteen
(03:52):
where we didn't ship any soybeans to China. That has
a big impact, actually, I think a bigger impact the
last time around all the market place than this time around.
This time around, I think they've kind of they were
all in, they've sort of forgotten about it, and now
they're thinking, well, maybe we do need something back from
the Trump administration again. In fact, they probably were thinking
(04:14):
that was going to come anyway, because that happened the
last time. Market facilitation payments called MFPs.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
Are soybean farmers the ones who are most affected by
the tariffs right.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Now, without a doubt, soybean you know, Swabean farmers, who
are generally corn farmers as well, so farmers across the
twelve states in the Midwest, which is the primary place
in order for soybeans, it is Illinois, first, Iowa, and
then Minnesota and Nebraska. The Dakota's, Indiana are all in there.
(04:50):
So there are twelve minut western states that run from
North Dakota down to Kansas and across Missouri, Illinois, Ohio,
and then up to the Great Lake states of Michigan
and Minnesota, Iowa.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
And they sell most of their product to China, while about.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
Half of the beans go out of the export market,
so we keep half and the other half kind of
goes out into the export market as soybeans go. Corns
a little different story, but at corn we don't really
need to talk about today because China sometimes is in
but rarely, rarely is in the marketplace for corn. But
soybean's clearly there is an impact. We deal with soybeans
(05:33):
on a global marketplace all the time, and we have
competition from Brazil. They surpassed us a few years ago
as it relates to total production of soybeans, and that
did not make producers very very happy here in the
United States. Actually, we talked about that with them a
lot in my job with the farm Dock team, the
agricultural economists here on campus University of Illinois Extension. We
(05:58):
were focusing a great deal with them, and then on
the air at the Illinois public media during the closing
market report on Brazil as they were developing their marketplace,
and farmers were really interested. I mean they were just
curious and they really wanted to know. This is the
first year they've been a lot less curious because Brazil
already took the market. They're number one in the export market,
(06:19):
and they don't want it. They don't want them to
be even bigger.
Speaker 1 (06:22):
How long have US soybean farmers been selling so much
of their crop to China?
Speaker 2 (06:28):
The Chinese have for the last decade been the primary
importer of soybeans across the planet.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
And are there other big customers? I mean, we're selling
them also to Europe, to Mexico, to other countries around
the world. Or does the rest of the stuff that
has produced a lot of it stay here in the
United States.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
A lot of it stays here in the United States,
but it is exported to other countries across the planet,
other countries in Asia, particular, corn goes to Japan and
to Mexico. Ethanol goes to Canada made from corn. Of course,
of this twelve million metric tons that you talked about
up front, which was supposed to happen after the Trump
administration announced that China would be buying twelve million metric tons,
(07:13):
which for me is easier to think about as four
hundred and forty million bushels.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
Roughly doesn't mean anything different to me when you say
it that way better.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
Okay, with the exception that they bought one point two
million bushels, So when you think about that, you were like, wait,
wait a second, they bought one point They have a
lot to buy. They have a lot to buy. They
could get it bought, they couldn't get it shipped.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
So the farmers don't think that that promise that the
Trump administration says China made is actually going to be kept.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
Well, I think they believe that it will be kept.
I don't think they believe it will be kept in
a timely manner.
Speaker 1 (07:48):
If that's not kept, then what happens to the soybeans
that have been produced in all of these states that
you mentioned? I mean, did you just sit there? Do
Do they have to get rid of it? Can they
sell it to somebody else?
Speaker 2 (08:01):
What's going to happen, well, generally speaking, is that it
gets cheap enough and it gets sold. Eventually it will
get used or it ends up being left over. So
there is USDA every month puts out a balance sheet
that has a number at the end that says how
much is left, what's left in the bin When we
get to the end of the marketing year, which comes
at the end of August, and at that point you
(08:24):
can tell how much of a crop is left. We
like to have about ten percent, so they're twelve months
in a year, right, so not quite like to have
a little bit more than a month's supply left. However,
when it gets bigger than that, the price goes down,
and when it gets smaller than that, the price goes
way up because people get concerned that we're not going
to have enough left.
Speaker 1 (08:43):
And just to give people a sense, by the way,
that the prices of soybeans have fallen about thirty four
percent since twenty twenty one, so they're already a lot
lower than they used to be. Todd take us back
to the last trade war under the first Trump administration.
What happened then and what did the farmers get in
terms of a bailout?
Speaker 2 (09:03):
So the farmers got many billions of dollars at that
point in bailout. I want to say the number is
twenty eight the president at the time wanted to go
to war with China as it's related to trade. Agriculture
was the only thing they were really working on in
the current timeframe as trade, and there were many other
(09:23):
things that were on the list, but ag steal or
really the primaries. Unlike this time around, where everything is
on the board, where tariffs are going on everything, it
was mostly for them about agriculture from the Chinese side,
that's what they were importing from the United States, and
the US was worried about agriculture. They were worried about steel,
(09:47):
They were worried about China stealing technology from the United States.
That never got really taken care of this. There was
a phase one and a Phase two of agreements that
were supposed to take place with the Chin did not
live up to the Phase one agreement never bothered actually
to even talk about Phase two, which was see how
(10:07):
do we deal with technology and other kinds of things
that we want to talk with China about in trade.
The billions of dollars that came to farmers came because
the President said out loud, if the Chinese won't buy
our soybeans, will just pay soybean farmers.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
And that's likely now to happen again.
Speaker 2 (10:28):
It seems like it appears that will be the case,
but it has some interesting twists. First, because they have
to find the money to begin with. They have been
dragging their feet for some time because this was talked
about in the early summer months. They knew it was
going to come. It was talked about again in the fall,
(10:48):
and it's always been said, well, we'll pay our farmers,
but we really want to see if we can get
a trade deal done. They this time around, they didn't
want to pay producers and they been dragging their feet
about how to do that. I think part of it
is trying to figure out how to get Congress to
help put the money back in when it comes.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
To the farmers. Farm subsidies exist even when we're not
in a trade war, right.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
True, Absolutely, each and every year that there are farm
subsidies in way of safety nets because it is a
national security issue. You don't want to lose too many farmers,
and we don't really have that many farmers around. Surprisingly
the number the number is actually freakishly low, and so
you want security of people who can work the land
(11:35):
and raise crops. So the things that you would see
from soybeans. If you pick up anything any can in
the store, you'll probably see vegetable oil, which quite likely
is soybean oil, or you might see soybean proteins someplace.
It's listed in almost everything, but it's always in a
secondary product.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
Why, Todd, do you think that what's happening with the
soybean farmers should matter to our listeners who are not farmers.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
They should care because trade is important to democratic ideals.
Pre trade is important to democratic ideals, and so that's
the reason they should care about it. Whether they like
the way the Trump administration is going about it or
not matters. That's a political question, But just caring about
trade really matters for the world. It generally will make
(12:29):
things better. If we are the country where everything is built,
we can't consume it all. I mean, you have to
have another partner to help consume it. That drives labor.
But if we're building things, that doesn't mean that our
labor force is going to be richer. It just means
that everybody else came up, Todd.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
With all of the other things that are going on
right now, I just finally want to ask you. You know,
we've been talking about the tariffs and soybeans and China
buying the soybeans or not buying the soybeans. But there's
also you know, there's major immigration crackdown. We know that
a lot of people that work on farms are not
born and raised in the United States, many of them
(13:07):
probably undocumented in some places. What is the biggest issue
for farmers right now? Is it the tariffs or is
it other things?
Speaker 2 (13:14):
Depends on the farm you ask. I would say for
livestock producers, immigrant you know, not having immigrant workers is
a real issue. For the truck crop producers in California,
serious issue. That influx of workers who are willing to
be in the field on hot days and then to
go back across the border is really important. And that
(13:36):
labor for that's not a new labor force. That labor
force has been moving in and out of the fields
since the book Grapes of Wrath was right right right.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
That is Todd Gleeson, who hosts the Closing Market Report
for Illinois Public Media. Todd, thanks so much for coming
on the show.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
Oh you're so welcome, Jeremy, I so happy to be here, and.
Speaker 1 (13:54):
Thanks to you for listening to one thing. Trump did
it was produced by Harrison Patino. Our next middle episode
is coming to your podcas feed later this week. We're
going to be asking what the state of your economy
is right now. If you like this podcast, please rate
it wherever you get your podcasts. Our theme music was
composed by Noah Haidu. I'm Jeremy Hobson and talk to
you soon.
Host
Jeremy Hobson
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