January 7, 2020 • 48 mins
Joe Raineri opens the program explaining how there was almost an even split among favorites and underdogs this Bowl season. Joe talks about the impact of the controversy surrounding a reality star using her husband’s DFS lineup to win $1 million dollars. Joe goes on to talk about the Cowboys signing Mike McCarthy as their next head coach. Joe teaches everyone how to bet on the divisional round games, and how to make the most of a 4-game slate.
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(00:22):
Wake up the Morning Line. All right, here we go.
It is now Tuesday, January the seventh, gave. Welcome in.
Do the Grid. It is sports Grid dot Com. I
(00:43):
am at Joe Anarian. This is the Morning Line, and
we'll do our very best. Kitch. You caught up with
everything that had happened in the last twenty four hours
in the world of sports, and of course that will
include one less NFL head coaching vacancy that was filled yesterday,
just hours after it was made official that there in
(01:05):
fact was a vacancy to fill with the Dallas Cowboys.
Welcome to Jerry World. We'll go ahead and get you
all the details they're regarding the brand new era, if
you will. It's a new decade, right, it is a
new era in Dallas Cowboy football. Maybe not really probably not,
(01:28):
but there is a new head coach, so we'll let
you know exactly what's going on there. Plus there's a
new defensive coordinator, and yeah, there's an ex coach there
who's got to feel like, uh, like a truck just
ran him over after giving twenty some odd years of
his life and career to an organization who allows him
(01:51):
to linger around then basically throws him under the bus
to the media saying he won't leave the building, and
then they write a nice little you know, we officially
moved on, but by the way, we've also hired his
success or, all within twenty four hours. So good stuff
by by Jerry, who was trying to protect Jason Garrett
(02:11):
the whole time. But it appears uh yeah, if you uh,
I'd hate to see what happens if Jerry actually went
after somebody, because the way he treats apparently the people
he cares about. Wow, uh that was pretty that was
pretty diabolical. I gotta tell you, man. There is being fired,
there is ripping the band aid off, and then there's
(02:32):
what Jerry did, which is just all within the roller
coaster of emotions for Jason Garrett. Is that's an all
time great, guys. I don't think we've ever we've ever
seen anything like that under the guys of we want
to make sure everything's okay with Jason Garrett's who okay. Yeah,
So we do have that. We do have a couple
(02:53):
of remaining jobs open now the two are off the market,
and there are some opportunities and the interviews that are
gonna be happening here over the next forty eight hours,
we'll tell you who's going where it. We had We
had some football last night, the final bowl game in
fact before for the national Championship, which is just now
(03:13):
six days away. On Monday the thirteen, we will know
between Clemson and l s U who the best college
football team in the country is, bar none. Two heavyweights
will go at it former national champ, current national champ
until they get beat. Of course, is Clemson going to
defend their title taken on the L s U Tigers
(03:35):
and in all likelihood the number one draft pick come
April in Joe Burrow. This is going to be an
epic war. It's gonna be a lot of fun, and
we've got some line movement in that game that will
tell you about But as a precursor is just a
little appetizer. We were able to check out Louisiana Lafayette
last night and Miami of Ohio. Huh, how great was
(03:58):
that little mac football? Yeah, well, here's what we had
last night. It was actually a pretty entertaining game. Not
so much in the first day, but it was pretty entertaining,
mostly because we told you the under was the right play,
and sure enough that turned out to be exactly the
right play. But also they the fourteen points seemed a
little bit excessive there for Lafayette. They were able to
(04:21):
win the game, but they were only able to win
it by ten points to seventeen. Lafayette defeats Miami of Ohio,
giving them the Raging Cajuns and Billy Napier a eleven
win season, first time that they've had that so good
stuff going on there in Louisiana. They took it down,
and of course the money kept rolling in on the
(04:42):
over as the betting public just continued to hammer and
expected the Raging Cajuns to score sixty points by themselves,
which they have been known to do except for the
fact that we told you again. Uh, they hadn't played
in over a month, so kind hard to get everything rolling.
When you go through holidays, you haven't played competitive football
(05:05):
and over a month. Yeah, it's kind of hard to,
uh to get everything rolling there in order to be
able to score sixty points by yourself, which is why
the under was probably a pretty good play. And of
course we told you the betting public loves two things.
They love fits and they love overs, and they both
inflated the line less and in that name and that
(05:26):
means contrarians and pros. They made They made some bucks
last night because more than two thirds of the bets
were on the over in that game. And yet, and
we tell you all the time, or follow the money, right,
follow the money. The line opened up as a total
of fifty six and a half but drop to fifty.
(05:48):
So if two thirds of the bets are going one
way to the over, why is that line dropping. Well,
that's what we call reverse line movement, and that is
a big indicator. That's the big money and the pros
they don't necessarily agree with the betting public. And like
we said, go contrarian. When the public goes left, you
go right, and you've got yourself a pretty good opportunity
(06:10):
to be able to put a few bucks in your pocket,
but maybe the most amazing thing to pull out, and
it really should not be amazing, but it just goes
to show you how really how good these books are
and how the market works. This bowl season, guys, we
are one game away, right, forty. I believe we got
(06:31):
forty Bowl forty one bowl games with the championship we uh,
last night was the final bowl game now obviously before
the National Championship. So we've had forty so far. You
want to take a guess as to how many favorites
one versus underdogs? How many overs one versus how many underdogs?
(06:52):
H yeah, let me uh, let me give that to
you here and hold the suspense. So as far as
favorites this ball season nineteen and one is what the
favorites were. That's right. That was the distribution of the
forty bowl games. You had twenty favorites, you had nineteen underdogs,
(07:14):
and you had one push. That is guys. As far
as the totals, you had twenty go over, nineteen go
under and one push. That's guys. If you are keeping
tracking home, what does that mean? It means how incredibly
(07:34):
efficient the sports books are at setting the right numbers.
You got fifty fifty on both sides, guys, A little
bit of edge to the favorites, a little bit of
edge to the overs, and that edge goes in the
pockets of the sports books. Welcome to sports Batte, especially
during pole season. We'll have more on that, plus will
(07:57):
take a look ahead controversy, graft games, fantasy sports. Next
not the grid, Sports sports grid dot Com, Betting insights
and entertainment at your fingertips as our team covers the
most important topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive
betting models, expert picks, and more want the edge than
(08:18):
get on the grid sports grid dot com, So you'll
never guess what a B is up to. Wow, we'll
(08:40):
go ahead and uh experience that for yourself. Coming up, well,
Tonigo Brown is obviously not playing football as uh of course,
one of the one of the better wide receivers that
we've seen here in the NFL over the last ten
years or so is uh not playing football, but he
is certainly active on social media and now he is
(09:02):
picking fights. So we'll go ahead and tell you what's
happening there. As the spiral out of control continues. Butts
talking about spiraling out of control the Dallas Cowboys. Yes,
congratulations in the Dallas Cowboys. Uh. They managed in a
twenty four hour period yesterday to finally ripped the band
(09:23):
aid off and let formally Jason Garrett, the the guy
that spent twenty years of his life dedicated to the
Dallas Cowboys organization, from a player to an assistant, to
an offensive coordinator to eventually head coach. Yes, they finally
ripped the band aid off and said thanks Jason. Uh.
Jerry went ahead and wrote a nice little thing about
(09:44):
how Jason he's always going to be a cowboy and
cowboy this and YadA, YadA, YadA. Uh. And then roughly
about eight hours after that, they went ahead and announced
that Mike McCarthy is going to be the next head
coach of the Dallas Cowboys. Now, this kind of broke
eight yesterday morning. We were on the morning after and
Ariel Gabe and myself kind of heard the news there
(10:07):
as Jay Glazer Fox Sports handed down that nugget of information,
and there were still some questions regarding, all right, so
where do they go from here? Who's going to be
the defensive coordinators? He picking his own staff, what is
he doing so we learned a little bit more and
what we came to find out is that nepotism is uh, well,
(10:28):
I guess you know what. It's a good old boys
club the NFL guys. Uh. It always has been, it
always will be. And what I mean by that is
that Mike McCarthy went ahead and hired the new Orleans
States linebacker coach. That would be Mike Nolan. Now, Mike
Nolan been around the NFL for a while here, defensive guy,
(10:48):
former forty Niners head coach. He had a stint there
for a while before Hallbar he was um uh, he's
known as a defensive coordinator. But what's interesting here is
that Noel was the guy that gave McCarthy his his
first gig there as an OC of the San Francisco
forty Niners back in the day, which of course led
(11:09):
to Mike McCarthy getting the job at the Green Bay
Packers as a head coach, which, of course, now as
he is the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, he
returns that favor by And it wasn't like Nolan was unemployed.
He was the linebackers coach with with the Saints. But
he is now going to be the defensive coordinator for
(11:31):
the Dallas Cowboys. And we say this because Mike Nolan
um his defenses throughout his career. He's had some very
good defenses. He's had a couple of really bad defenses,
but overall mediocre, middle of the road. There's never been
(11:52):
I mean, he wasn't some sort of innovative defensive coordinator
that whose defense is not like the reputation a Greg
Williams um you know, or or heck even uh even
Rex Ryan for that matter, who definitely has a reputation
of being great DC not a great head coach. For
(12:14):
the most part, Mike Nolan has just been a guy
that's uh. He's had some decent defenses, you know, you know,
average to maybe a little bit above average. Never great.
He did have a couple of bad ones, but that's
pretty much what the Cowboys have always been havingant The
Cowboys have always been for twenty years, a mediocre franchise
that can't get out of their own way. They've got talent,
(12:36):
they overpay for players. They have one of the most
expensive offensive lines. They have. You know, they have a
running back, they got a quarterback. They're gonna have to pay.
They They've got all of these nice, shiny pieces that
cost a fortune. Uh. And meanwhile, their defenses are at
least have been some of the most bland and ridiculous
(12:58):
that we have ever seen. They don't blitz, they have
not blitz. They not very innovative on the defensive side.
In fact, multiple times over the last couple of years,
we heard teams, including the Rams last year, that just
bulldozed them. We heard Rams players talking about how we
knew what the Cowboys defense was gonna do the minute
that they lined up. So I don't know how much
(13:21):
of that is gonna change under Mike Nolan. Uh, Cowboys
have been running a four three. Nolan has been known
to do both three four and four three. Maybe, just
maybe he's picked up a couple of things there with
the Saints, which is possible. But it just both of
these hires to me scream, Jerry thinks he's ready to
(13:43):
win now. And that was what the big That was
what the big move was to get Mike McCarthy right away.
Didn't white Mike McCarthy being hired someplace else. Jerry wanted
to play a little safe of proven winner, a guy
that has a Super Bowl, a guy that is coached
Aaron Rodgers, guy that you know was that with Steve
(14:04):
Young was another guy that he was part of you know,
um early on in his career. So all of this
just screams yep, you got experience. Yep. Jerry is still
going to have his fingerprints all over this roster. And
you don't have to look any further than Kellen Moore,
the uh, the offensive coordinator who was under contract, also
(14:27):
a cowboy, former cowboy backup quarterback yep, now coach very allah,
Jason Garrett. Yeah, it looks like Mike McCarthy has gone
out of his way to let everyone know that he
is open, absolutely open to retaining Kellen Moore in what capacity.
I have no idea or why you would even keep
(14:47):
him outside of the fact that Jerry wants you to
keep him. Because Jerry's got him on the contract and
Jerry is paying, and he's a cowboy. So Kellen Moore uh.
And this is not how it generally works. Guys holdovers
from previous staffs, especially when offensive minded guys come in,
they tend to um. Yeah, they don't tend to risk it.
(15:09):
They're bringing their own guys across every level unless there
is some sort of unbelievable relationship between the quarterback and
the o C. And and I think we can all
agree at first time offensive coordinator last year, Kellen Moore,
there was really you know, there's no history there with
Dak Prescott to warrant him staying outside of Jerry Jones
(15:32):
wanting him to stay. And there you go. I mean
to me, everything that's happened over the last twenty four
hours encapsulates exactly what the Dallas Cowboys are and why
the Dallas Cowboys will continue to under achieve on many levels. Uh,
and it seems like a reach. I don't have a
problem with Mike McCarthy. He has told anybody and everybody
(15:53):
who will listen in the media that he has spent
the last year or so away from the game and
realizing getting better, evolving analytics, you know, get getting back
and I've and I'm I love that. I applaud guys
who do that. I applaud the fact that guys are
willing to evolve instead of it's my way or the highway,
because those guys usually flatline in their careers are over.
(16:16):
So you're never too old, You're never too young to
continue to evolve. And learn new things, and and I
hope he does. I I got no problem with Mike McCarthy.
But what I do know about Mike McCarthy, and what
I know about this situation in Dallas, is that Mike
McCarthy is going to have probably they gave him a
(16:37):
five year contract, but the guy pulling the strings here
are still the puppet master is still gonna be Jerry Jones.
So it's just another face and another guy that is
going to feel the heat the minute you don't live
up to the Jerry Jones expectations, which, let's face the guys,
is it's weel. Win season is a trip to the
super Bowl. At the very least, Jerry thinks he's got
(16:59):
plenty enough talent and has bought himself a super Bowl
winning team, which is why he didn't get innovative and
didn't go the Lincoln Riley or the Matt rule or
the uh something new and something different now. He went
the safer route a guy that was begging to get
back into the league as a head coach, and he did.
And this might very well be exactly what the Cowboys need,
(17:22):
But I doubt it. Um I doubt it, because everything
in this higher, including his defensive coordinator, including him keeping
Kellen Moore tells me it's just gonna be a little
bit more of the same old, same old with the
Dallas Cowboys, only they're going to have an analytics department
this time. Jason Garrett was somebody that was definitely up
(17:43):
at the podium, much like Mike McCarthy during his last
couple of years there in Green Bay talking about how
analytics analytics, I don't you know, I don't even think
about that. It doesn't factor into the equation. Jason Garrett
said the same thing. Apparently Mike McCarthy has been analytics
everybody and apparently sold Jerry on it. So they'll have
(18:05):
an analytics department and they'll use it. How many wins
that equates? Who I have congratulation like McCarthy? How Cowboys
head coach? All right, more on that controversy. DFS coming
on deck or the Bridge. Sports grid dot Com Betting
insights and entertainment at your fingertips as our team covers
(18:29):
the most important topics in sports wagering, real time odds,
predictive betting models, expert picks, and more. Want the edge
than get on the grid. Sports grid dot com alright,
(18:52):
time to get on the grid here people and find
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(19:14):
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(20:20):
that continue to take down thirty thou hundred thousand, two
fifty thousand million dollar jackpots on dfs. And uh, there's
a reason why you should get the Daily Roado dot com.
But there was, and this is not so uncommon, It's
a little bit more on it's more and more common
in people realize, Uh, Daily Fantasy and DFS scandals not
(20:45):
exactly new to the game. And but the problem is
when you include The Bachelor, the television show The Bachelor,
and you mix in DFS, the Bachelor and a whole
lot of unnecessary attention to yourself, then you probably are
(21:06):
going to create a scandal of some sort, especially when
you win a million dollar DFS contest with Draft Kings.
So yesterday this story was was breaking and late morning
and we had not heard back from Draft Kings early on.
It took them a little while to eventually respond to
(21:28):
the controversy surrounding it, and eventually their answer was we
just learned about it, we're gonna go ahead and investigated, YadA, YadA, YadA.
So basically in a nutshell is that we had uh,
Jade Roper who was on The Bachelor season nineteen, now
her and her husband who was Tanner Tolbert. He was
(21:49):
on The Bachelor. She met him actually on The Bachelor
in Paradise season two. So these these two are reality
TV people. He is apparently a big time fantasy DFS player.
And it didn't take long, I guess after the tournament
was done, and of course draft Kings like other people,
(22:12):
posts their wins and you know, get people access to
the winning lineups and everything that's right after they're done.
So it doesn't take long for DFS Twitter to put
on their sleuth hats and go to work here and
figure out, all right, what's going on, how did we lose?
How did this happen? What's going on? Wow? Apparently it
(22:32):
was deducted that not only did did Jade Roper, but
her husband, Tanner Tolbert. Apparently they violated or at least
the claim is, they violated draft king rules to gain
an advantage on the field, and they made so much
noise yesterday that they went ahead and of course, now
(22:53):
Draft Kings says, we're going to go ahead and investigate
and see exactly what's happening. The bottom line when it
comes down to it is that they gave themselves they
combined for three hundred lineups at a piece, and up
the three hundred lineups, two d and nine eight of
them were unique. And that means they were strategizing by
(23:17):
actually pulling their lineups so they wouldn't overlap on duplicate players,
and that of course increases their chances of having at
least one of the lineups win something, and that gives
them an unfair competitive advantage over the field. That was
the big problem yesterday with a lot of the DFS
Twitter folks saying they looked at all three hundred lineups.
(23:40):
I don't know who's got this kind of time, but
yes they people were diving in looking at all three
hundred lineups. And when you have lineups and two of
them are very unique to the situation, yeah, there might
be uh, there might be a flag raised as far
(24:01):
as that goes. Now. Of course, if this is the case,
and if this is what DraftKings finds out, then um
that one million dollar payment will no longer be In fact,
from what I understand, the million dollar payment has not
been paid out because they are in fact investigating this
at Draft Kings. So I don't know what the decision
(24:23):
is going to be. But what I do know is
that a lot of the a lot of the folks
that take this very seriously and do this for a living,
we're not happy with this. And in fact, it almost
showed yesterday that this girl, Jade Roper uh they even
went back through her entire timeline of Twitter and Instagram
(24:47):
and they could find not one, uh, not one post
about lineups or talking DFS or football or anything along
those lines. So the fact that she was her line
up that ended up winning, I think that was the
bigger problem is because she won the Lion Up, and
it was quite obvious to a lot of folks that
(25:08):
she is not, you know, somebody that would drop a
hundred and fifty unique DFS lineups into a tournament, since
that's not really what she does. Everyone kind of knew
it was it would definitely have been him. But when
they break down the lineups, I don't know how they're
going to explain it away. I don't know what the
outcome is gonna be. But folks within the DFS community
(25:32):
have been are screaming and yelling about this, and I
don't think that they're Bachelor history and the fact that
they do have a platform like that, I don't think
their popularity helped them at all in this situation. In fact,
if they would have left just an egg avatar on
there instead of you know, posting her picture with with him,
(25:53):
nobody probably would have noticed. But that's exactly where they
are at now. I don't know whether or not that
Draft Kings, the CEO, Jason Robbins, tweeted out late after
yesterday afternoon saying, um, we are looking into this. It
just came to our attention. We will uh, we will
keep people abreast of what what we find. So I
(26:15):
don't know how long it's gonna take. But Draft Kings,
of course at this point, has not released a million
dollars to them. Now they are saying that, you know,
no harm, no foul, We're just really good at what
we do. So the DFS drama and who who to
thunk it? Guys, DFS, you know, put the lineup in William,
(26:36):
you know, win a million bucks, go on with your life,
go to the next tournament, everybody wins. No. Apparently this
is not uncommon from from some of the threads that
we see on Twitter, where there are always guys trying
to skirt the rules, and of course it's very easy
to be policed because there are and you can take
comfort in this knowing that in the DFS community they
(26:59):
police themselves. The police themselves pretty well, which is even
more impressive. Why our friends Drew dink Meyer and company
at Daily rodo they continue to do this on an
everyday basis and they continue to bring home the money
and the winds, and they are not doing it because
they're including their wives, their girlfriends or anybody else to
(27:19):
to gain themselves a competitive edge. That what they're doing
is the work and using Daily roado dot com. So yes,
it's it certainly can be done the right way without
having to cheat. And we'll see, we'll see what they
find out and whether or not they'll release that million dollars.
But I know a lot of people in the DFS
community they're gonna be watching what the ruling is here
(27:39):
rather quickly because if you're DraftKings, I don't know how
you let that slide. I don't know how, I don't
know how you do that, because you open up a
Pandora's box if you say they did nothing wrong, and
you're inviting a whole lot of other very smart people
in there too, Uh, do exactly that. And I don't
I don't know how. I don't know how how that's
(28:02):
gonna work in the long run. But we'll keep an
eye and as soon as we know, we'll let you
know what the determining factor was and is. And maybe,
just maybe, I hope they didn't spend that million dollars
already because it may not be coming their way, but
what will be coming your way, of course, is a
bunch of football games in this Saturday and Sunday, and
(28:26):
specifically in the NFL. In the NFC, we've got some
interesting line movement that is happening here. Uh. And we've
got to watch the markets carefully, guys, as we get
ready for the divisional matchups here because it's again the
only games out four games. There's gonna be a lot
(28:47):
of recreational dollars here. Understanding and following the market and
seeing where the money starts, where it ends, where it
goes during the week all helps you have a better
understanding of Number one, who the public loves, and number
two who the pros love. And where is the value
being shaded here one way or the other, Because these
(29:09):
numbers are well, they are sharp, guys, and we have
been telling you that it looked no further than Bowl season.
If you're just joining us, we told you last night
we had the Bowl game, the final bowl game before
the National championship, and just look at the numbers the
way they bear out. You had twenty favorites win, you
(29:30):
had nineteen underdogs win, and you had one push. You
also had twenty totals go over, nineteen total under and
one total push. That is ridiculous. That is unbelievable. And
it just proves the point that the market will tell
you a lot by following it as long as you
(29:51):
stay on top of it. Because all of those numbers
started out in one spot, all of those games, all
forty Bowl games, started out in one number, and eventually,
by the time kickoff came, they landed on a number
that gave the sports book on one side. On the
(30:14):
other that's what we call a sharp market, folks, and
the sports books they make money for a reason. The
whole question is did you use that knowledge in order
to make yourself any money during bowl season and if not,
what could you have done better? We'll see if we
can apply those same principles here to the NFL Vikings
(30:35):
forty nine or Seahawks Green Bay will do that next year.
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dot com backslash DUNC to learn more. So those of
(31:24):
you that bitched and moaned all year long about how
the NFL product sucks, how do you give us the
Bears on Monday night Thursday night? Terrible bulk? But yeah,
well the numbers are in here, uh from this past
weekend's wild card game, and the ratings are in, and
(31:46):
so what we have learned is apparently that Seahawks Eagles
game has generated the biggest TV audience since the Super Bowl.
So that that's Eagles see Ehawks in what amounted to
be a yawn fest of a game. Really Uh yeah
that um, they couldn't get enough, that's right, We could
(32:09):
not get enough in this country of eyeballs to television sets.
And that is the largest TV audience of any show
since last year's Super Bowl fifty three. So the audience
of just over close to thirty six million people tuned
in for the Seahawks Eagles game a little bit, believe
(32:31):
it or not, just a slight drop from what last
year's was very slight. But last year you had the
Eagles Bears, and of course Chicago was a much bigger
media market than than what Seattle is, uh and it
was a much more exciting game. But even still to
be able to have those kinds of numbers. The Saints game,
by the way, Viking Saints on Fox generated thirty million
(32:56):
eyeballs to television sets. That was the early game, one
PM game, and that was an increase over the twenty
five million that watched last year's Chargers Ravens game from
Wild Cards Sunday. That was a year. So we continue
to see increases in viewership this year, uh in fact,
(33:20):
for the weekend in total, both Saturday end Sunday. Now,
of course, Sunday always going to have a few more
eyeballs onto television set because it is Sunday as opposed
to Saturday, where people are out and about. You've got
an early game, you've got a late game. But the
two games, all four games in fact, averaged just under
thirty one million viewers. That is a seven percent increase
(33:45):
over last year, and it is the largest total that
the NFL has seen in four years. So you keep
bitching and moaning about how the product sucks, not gonna watch.
It's terriball, it's awful, I hate it's the Bears, the Jets,
it's you go ahead. Meanwhile, the NFL will continue to
(34:06):
count the billions of dollars that they bring in in revenue,
as advertisers continue to pay billions of dollars to be
in front of those thirty one million people every chance
they get that consume an event on TV that continues
to rise even though the product is apparently down. Yeah,
(34:28):
well it's it's not down over the course of a season,
and it's certainly ain't down when the playoffs come in
urgency comes. It continues to be must watch television, and
those numbers, uh, they are just going to continue. And
bear in mind here, guys, Um, you don't have a
New York team in here. You don't have an l
(34:50):
A team, you don't have a Chicago team, you don't
have national brands like the Patriots anymore, the Steelers, the Cowboys.
None of that ext prists moving on to the round
of eight here. So I'll be interested to see what's
gonna happen to these ratings moving forward. But if this
weekend was any indicator, yeah, this is uh. Eagles Seahawks, Guys,
(35:15):
Eagles Seahawks on Sunday afternoon was the biggest TV audience
since the Super Bowl. The NFL continues to print money,
no matter how much people want to bitch and moan
about it or the refs. How many wee can bitch
and moan about the refs all day long. It's terrible products.
So you know what we do. We go right back
(35:36):
to the television and we consume it all over again,
waiting to be aggravated, waiting to be piste off, waiting
to bitch and moan and say how terrible the game is.
And how terrible the product is. Yeah, right, just make
sure it's on the following week so I can watch
it and bitch and moan about it again afterwards. The
NFL knows this, And if you want to know why
it is that, why don't they fix the rest? Why
(35:57):
don't they do? They don't have to look at the numbers.
This isn't a sharp decrease, guys. This is a ridiculous
billion dollar increase of what is going on with eyeballs
the TVs without any blue bloods in it. No New
York Giants, no New York Jets, no Dallas Cowboys, No
we don't have any, No Steelers, none of the blue
(36:19):
bloods are in this. Nope. Instead we've got ourselves Seahawks, Eagles, uh, Titans, Houston,
which is a pretty decent market, but obviously they are
nothing compared to what the Cowboys is in Texas. So
again they are going to print money, the NFL, because
that's what they do. Now do have, of course, a
(36:43):
couple of blue bloods that will be playing this weekend,
certainly in the NFC, as the San Francisco forty Niners
will be on display. They're taking on the Minnesota Vikings
and the Green Bay Packers will be taking on those.
We'll be taken on those Seattle Seahawks in Lambeau Fields.
So the Vikings come into this game, and it's interesting
(37:09):
they are playing. We know this guy's with house money
right now. The Vikings weren't supposed to win there are
six seed, but they got the upset victory. They went
out right over in New Orleans Saints team to twenty
that were seven and a half point dogs. Kurt Cousins
got the win. He made a couple of monster throws.
Will he be able to do that again? I don't know.
(37:31):
We're gonna have to wait to find out. Obviously, this
is gonna be a little bit better defense than what
the than what the what they saw there from the
New Orleans Saints. So it'll be interesting. But I will
say this, the line opened with the forty Niners as
a seven point home favorite. I have seen even some
(37:52):
places go to six and a half open up at
six and a half. But it's quite obvious two thirds
of the money of the bets rather are coming in
right now are coming in on the forty Niners. And yet, guys,
as I'm looking across the board, here at many of
the sports books around this country, that line is frozen
(38:14):
at seven. In fact, the sports books that opened it
up at seven, it remains at seven. The sports books
that opened it up at six and a half, yep,
that's still at six and a half. And yet the
tickets come rolling in here on the forty niners laying
the points. So why, I ask you, is this line
(38:34):
not moving with the amount of tickets that are being
bet now It's quite obvious, guys, there is serious professional
money and liability right now on the vikings plus the points.
And I don't blame them from the standpoint of Look
at divisional round dogs right now, here's what we know.
(38:55):
Here's what the trends tell us divisional round dogs thirty
twenty four against the numbers since two thousand three. That
is good for folks, those of you that might be
new to sports investing. Uh, if I can get sixty
percent a winning percentage, I'm probably not on this show.
I'm making millions of dollars and really don't need any
(39:18):
of this, but very hard to get there. So when
you have something that says sixty one percent since two
thousand three, that's a pretty good database and you also
are seeing where the liability lies here with the sports books,
because the sports books aren't about picking who's gonna win
or lose. The sports books are simply trying to make
(39:40):
it so they have liability that hovers right around fifty
percent on both sides, so they don't lose. They just
make the big They make that you know, you've got
a bet eleven and to win to win ten. So
they are just hoping to be able to get equal
bets on both sides, and right now they are getting
way more our bets laying the points with the forty
(40:02):
Niners than they are on the Vikings. But the line
ain't moving, and the line ain't moving because the bigger bets,
the more liability. Forget about. The public is clearly on
the forty Niners right now, and yet the pros are
clearly on the Minnesota Vikings with that seven points, with
that touchdown, even the six and a half at this point,
(40:23):
and the numbers bear out dogs very profitable in this
round of the playoffs in the NFL since two thousand
and three. It's also and this is key, and I
want you guys to remember this, it's been very profitable.
Okay to bet against teams coming off of by in
this point of the playoffs. And what do I mean
(40:44):
by that? Fifty two and forty three against the number.
That's good for just over fifty guys. So it has
been profitable to back the dogs, and it has been
profitable to fade those teams who I have sat home
and had to buy. You know, you think there's an
advantage there. Nope, not necessarily, guys. Fifty two and forty
(41:08):
three against the number since two thousand three. I can
also tell you that in that game, the under seems
to be getting uh, some some interesting love from the
professional betters. Total opened up at forty five and a half.
I'm seeing that down to even forty four and a
half in some places. I don't know how much the
weather is going to play. Keep an eye on the
(41:29):
weather forecast. Currently right now, temperature will be in the
mid fifties eight to ten mile per hour wins. Uh.
Both of these teams, both the forty niners and the Vikings,
have been a little bit more profitable to the over
throughout the year, with Minnesota going nine and eight to
the over in San Francisco going eight seven and one
to the over. So It's a very interesting dichotomy with
(41:54):
that Minnesota Vikings forty Niners game. And I can tell
you the Seahawks and the Packers. Uh, this is another
classic pros versus the Joe's here, guys. Uh, Seattle, we
know h took down the Eagles, and of course green
Bay is sitting there and waiting. Um. The public is
(42:17):
hammering Russell Wilson. They cannot believe Russell Wilson and the
Seattle Seahawks are getting points. And roughly now, as I'm
looking at the numbers, more than two thirds of the bets,
guys are backing Seattle. Right now, however, the Packers line
has moved up from three and a half to four.
(42:38):
So what does that tell you? The public hammering? Two
thirds of the bets are backing not only the forty Niners,
but they're also backing the dog here, the Seattle Seahawks.
And yet the line is going the other way or
not moving in either of these games. So we've got classic.
The line is drawn in the sand here with these games, guys,
(42:58):
the pros love the vi Kings, The pros love green
Bay at home. The public loves the forty Niners at home,
and they love Russell Wilson getting points in lambeau Field.
So and again Seahawks do have some value there with
that trend. I gave you thirty eight and twenty four
(43:19):
against the number sixty profitable. The fade teams coming off
of by that being the green Bay Packers. However, the
pros they're not buying it in UH, They're not buying
it in the green Bay game. They are buying it
however with the Minnesota Vikings in San Francisco forty niners.
So the under also continuing to get looks a little
(43:42):
bit a little bit of love here. It is moving
one way, it's moving down. Opened up at forty six
and a half, I'm seeing forty forty five and a half.
And of course the temperature in that game at lambeau
Field that will be in the low twenties to high teens, yes, twenties.
The high teams UH seven mile per hour wins, seven
(44:03):
eight mile prile wins at lambeau Fields. And as far
as the split between Seattle and green Bay, Seattle eight
eight and one to pretty consistent green Bay tenants six
to the under, including five and three to the under
at home in lambeau Field, this year. So we've got
(44:24):
a couple of games here in the NFC that are
clearly pros versus the Joes, and in one game they
are backing the dog. In the yellow game, they're backing
the favorite. So somebody's gonna be right, somebody's gonna be wrong.
What about any other matchups, Well, we'll take a look
(44:45):
at the a f C. We'll do that coming up
this hour here as we look to make it rain
on the grid sports grade dot com. In the meantime,
you got yourself six NBA games, twelve n NHL games,
twenty nine college basketball games. Today, guys, make it a
profitable day. We'll break it down for you again tomorrow.
You're on the grid. Good. I want to be the
(45:10):
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DUNC to learn more. Hivert. Look, I need your help.
Here's would you miss on the morning line. Yeah, they
don't tend to risk it. They're bringing their own guys
across every level unless there is some sort of unbelievable
(45:55):
relationship between the quarterback and E O C. And I
and I think we could all agree. At first time
offensive coordinator last year Kellen Moore, there was really you know,
there's no history there with Dak Prescott to warrant him
staying outside of Jerry Jones wanting him to stay and
there you go. I mean to me, everything that's happened
over the last twenty four hours encapsulates exactly what the
(46:17):
Dallas Cowboys are and why the Dallas Cowboys will continue
to underachieve on many levels. Uh, and it seems like
a reach. I don't have a problem with Mike McCarthy.
He has told anybody and everybody who will listen in
the media that he has spent the last year or
so away from the game analyzing, getting better, evolving analytics,
(46:39):
you know, getting better. And I and I'm I love that.
I applaud guys who do that. I applaud the fact
that guys are willing to evolve instead of it's my
way or the highway, because those guys usually flatline in
their careers are over so you're never too old. You're
never too young to continue to evolve and learn new things.
And and I hope he does. I I got no
(46:59):
problem Mike McCarthy. But what I do know about Mike McCarthy,
and what I know about this situation in Dallas, is
that Mike McCarthy is going to have probably the game
a five year contract. But the guy pulling the strings
here are still the puppet master is still gonna be
Jerry Jones. So it's just another face and another guy
(47:21):
that is going to feel the heat the minute you
don't live up to the Jerry Jones expectations, which, let's
face the guys, is a twelve win season is a
trip to the super Bowl. At the very least. Jerry
thinks he's got plenty enough talent and has bought himself
a super Bowl winning team, which is why he didn't
get innovative and didn't go the Lincoln Riley or the
Matt rule or the uh something new and something different now.
(47:44):
He went the safer out a guy that was begging
to get back into the league as I head coach,
and he did, And this might very well be exactly
what the Cowboys need, But I doubt it. Um I
doubt it because everything in this higher, including his defensive
coordinator in him keeping Kellen Moore tells me it's just
gonna be a little bit more of the same old,
same old with the Dallas Cowboys, only they're going to
(48:07):
have an analytics department this time. Jason Garrett was somebody
that was definitely up at the podium, much like Mike
McCarthy during his last couple of years there in Green Bay,
talking about how analytics analytics, I don't you know, I
don't even think about that. It doesn't factor into the equation.
Grayson Garrett said the same thing. Apparently Mike McCarthy has
(48:28):
been selling analytics everybody and apparently sold Jerry on it.
So they'll have an analytics department and they'll use it.
How many wins that equates too? I have like
Hey, thanks for downloading the podcast. If you want to
listen live, all you have to do is download the
I Heart Radio app and search for Fantasy Sports Radio Network. Also,
if you want to catch this show on video, for
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Enjoy the show, and thanks so much for listening. Good morning,
(00:22):
Wake up the Morning Line. All right, here we go.
It is now Tuesday, January the seventh, gave. Welcome in.
Do the Grid. It is sports Grid dot Com. I
(00:43):
am at Joe Anarian. This is the Morning Line, and
we'll do our very best. Kitch. You caught up with
everything that had happened in the last twenty four hours
in the world of sports, and of course that will
include one less NFL head coaching vacancy that was filled yesterday,
just hours after it was made official that there in
(01:05):
fact was a vacancy to fill with the Dallas Cowboys.
Welcome to Jerry World. We'll go ahead and get you
all the details they're regarding the brand new era, if
you will. It's a new decade, right, it is a
new era in Dallas Cowboy football. Maybe not really probably not,
(01:28):
but there is a new head coach, so we'll let
you know exactly what's going on there. Plus there's a
new defensive coordinator, and yeah, there's an ex coach there
who's got to feel like, uh, like a truck just
ran him over after giving twenty some odd years of
his life and career to an organization who allows him
(01:51):
to linger around then basically throws him under the bus
to the media saying he won't leave the building, and
then they write a nice little you know, we officially
moved on, but by the way, we've also hired his
success or, all within twenty four hours. So good stuff
by by Jerry, who was trying to protect Jason Garrett
(02:11):
the whole time. But it appears uh yeah, if you uh,
I'd hate to see what happens if Jerry actually went
after somebody, because the way he treats apparently the people
he cares about. Wow, uh that was pretty that was
pretty diabolical. I gotta tell you, man. There is being fired,
there is ripping the band aid off, and then there's
(02:32):
what Jerry did, which is just all within the roller
coaster of emotions for Jason Garrett. Is that's an all
time great, guys. I don't think we've ever we've ever
seen anything like that under the guys of we want
to make sure everything's okay with Jason Garrett's who okay. Yeah,
So we do have that. We do have a couple
(02:53):
of remaining jobs open now the two are off the market,
and there are some opportunities and the interviews that are
gonna be happening here over the next forty eight hours,
we'll tell you who's going where it. We had We
had some football last night, the final bowl game in
fact before for the national Championship, which is just now
(03:13):
six days away. On Monday the thirteen, we will know
between Clemson and l s U who the best college
football team in the country is, bar none. Two heavyweights
will go at it former national champ, current national champ
until they get beat. Of course, is Clemson going to
defend their title taken on the L s U Tigers
(03:35):
and in all likelihood the number one draft pick come
April in Joe Burrow. This is going to be an
epic war. It's gonna be a lot of fun, and
we've got some line movement in that game that will
tell you about But as a precursor is just a
little appetizer. We were able to check out Louisiana Lafayette
last night and Miami of Ohio. Huh, how great was
(03:58):
that little mac football? Yeah, well, here's what we had
last night. It was actually a pretty entertaining game. Not
so much in the first day, but it was pretty entertaining,
mostly because we told you the under was the right play,
and sure enough that turned out to be exactly the
right play. But also they the fourteen points seemed a
little bit excessive there for Lafayette. They were able to
(04:21):
win the game, but they were only able to win
it by ten points to seventeen. Lafayette defeats Miami of Ohio,
giving them the Raging Cajuns and Billy Napier a eleven
win season, first time that they've had that so good
stuff going on there in Louisiana. They took it down,
and of course the money kept rolling in on the
(04:42):
over as the betting public just continued to hammer and
expected the Raging Cajuns to score sixty points by themselves,
which they have been known to do except for the
fact that we told you again. Uh, they hadn't played
in over a month, so kind hard to get everything rolling.
When you go through holidays, you haven't played competitive football
(05:05):
and over a month. Yeah, it's kind of hard to,
uh to get everything rolling there in order to be
able to score sixty points by yourself, which is why
the under was probably a pretty good play. And of
course we told you the betting public loves two things.
They love fits and they love overs, and they both
inflated the line less and in that name and that
(05:26):
means contrarians and pros. They made They made some bucks
last night because more than two thirds of the bets
were on the over in that game. And yet, and
we tell you all the time, or follow the money, right,
follow the money. The line opened up as a total
of fifty six and a half but drop to fifty.
(05:48):
So if two thirds of the bets are going one
way to the over, why is that line dropping. Well,
that's what we call reverse line movement, and that is
a big indicator. That's the big money and the pros
they don't necessarily agree with the betting public. And like
we said, go contrarian. When the public goes left, you
go right, and you've got yourself a pretty good opportunity
(06:10):
to be able to put a few bucks in your pocket,
but maybe the most amazing thing to pull out, and
it really should not be amazing, but it just goes
to show you how really how good these books are
and how the market works. This bowl season, guys, we
are one game away, right, forty. I believe we got
(06:31):
forty Bowl forty one bowl games with the championship we uh,
last night was the final bowl game now obviously before
the National Championship. So we've had forty so far. You
want to take a guess as to how many favorites
one versus underdogs? How many overs one versus how many underdogs?
(06:52):
H yeah, let me uh, let me give that to
you here and hold the suspense. So as far as
favorites this ball season nineteen and one is what the
favorites were. That's right. That was the distribution of the
forty bowl games. You had twenty favorites, you had nineteen underdogs,
(07:14):
and you had one push. That is guys. As far
as the totals, you had twenty go over, nineteen go
under and one push. That's guys. If you are keeping
tracking home, what does that mean? It means how incredibly
(07:34):
efficient the sports books are at setting the right numbers.
You got fifty fifty on both sides, guys, A little
bit of edge to the favorites, a little bit of
edge to the overs, and that edge goes in the
pockets of the sports books. Welcome to sports Batte, especially
during pole season. We'll have more on that, plus will
(07:57):
take a look ahead controversy, graft games, fantasy sports. Next
not the grid, Sports sports grid dot Com, Betting insights
and entertainment at your fingertips as our team covers the
most important topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive
betting models, expert picks, and more want the edge than
(08:18):
get on the grid sports grid dot com, So you'll
never guess what a B is up to. Wow, we'll
(08:40):
go ahead and uh experience that for yourself. Coming up, well,
Tonigo Brown is obviously not playing football as uh of course,
one of the one of the better wide receivers that
we've seen here in the NFL over the last ten
years or so is uh not playing football, but he
is certainly active on social media and now he is
(09:02):
picking fights. So we'll go ahead and tell you what's
happening there. As the spiral out of control continues. Butts
talking about spiraling out of control the Dallas Cowboys. Yes,
congratulations in the Dallas Cowboys. Uh. They managed in a
twenty four hour period yesterday to finally ripped the band
(09:23):
aid off and let formally Jason Garrett, the the guy
that spent twenty years of his life dedicated to the
Dallas Cowboys organization, from a player to an assistant, to
an offensive coordinator to eventually head coach. Yes, they finally
ripped the band aid off and said thanks Jason. Uh.
Jerry went ahead and wrote a nice little thing about
(09:44):
how Jason he's always going to be a cowboy and
cowboy this and YadA, YadA, YadA. Uh. And then roughly
about eight hours after that, they went ahead and announced
that Mike McCarthy is going to be the next head
coach of the Dallas Cowboys. Now, this kind of broke
eight yesterday morning. We were on the morning after and
Ariel Gabe and myself kind of heard the news there
(10:07):
as Jay Glazer Fox Sports handed down that nugget of information,
and there were still some questions regarding, all right, so
where do they go from here? Who's going to be
the defensive coordinators? He picking his own staff, what is
he doing so we learned a little bit more and
what we came to find out is that nepotism is uh, well,
(10:28):
I guess you know what. It's a good old boys
club the NFL guys. Uh. It always has been, it
always will be. And what I mean by that is
that Mike McCarthy went ahead and hired the new Orleans
States linebacker coach. That would be Mike Nolan. Now, Mike
Nolan been around the NFL for a while here, defensive guy,
(10:48):
former forty Niners head coach. He had a stint there
for a while before Hallbar he was um uh, he's
known as a defensive coordinator. But what's interesting here is
that Noel was the guy that gave McCarthy his his
first gig there as an OC of the San Francisco
forty Niners back in the day, which of course led
(11:09):
to Mike McCarthy getting the job at the Green Bay
Packers as a head coach, which, of course, now as
he is the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, he
returns that favor by And it wasn't like Nolan was unemployed.
He was the linebackers coach with with the Saints. But
he is now going to be the defensive coordinator for
(11:31):
the Dallas Cowboys. And we say this because Mike Nolan
um his defenses throughout his career. He's had some very
good defenses. He's had a couple of really bad defenses,
but overall mediocre, middle of the road. There's never been
(11:52):
I mean, he wasn't some sort of innovative defensive coordinator
that whose defense is not like the reputation a Greg
Williams um you know, or or heck even uh even
Rex Ryan for that matter, who definitely has a reputation
of being great DC not a great head coach. For
(12:14):
the most part, Mike Nolan has just been a guy
that's uh. He's had some decent defenses, you know, you know,
average to maybe a little bit above average. Never great.
He did have a couple of bad ones, but that's
pretty much what the Cowboys have always been havingant The
Cowboys have always been for twenty years, a mediocre franchise
that can't get out of their own way. They've got talent,
(12:36):
they overpay for players. They have one of the most
expensive offensive lines. They have. You know, they have a
running back, they got a quarterback. They're gonna have to pay.
They They've got all of these nice, shiny pieces that
cost a fortune. Uh. And meanwhile, their defenses are at
least have been some of the most bland and ridiculous
(12:58):
that we have ever seen. They don't blitz, they have
not blitz. They not very innovative on the defensive side.
In fact, multiple times over the last couple of years,
we heard teams, including the Rams last year, that just
bulldozed them. We heard Rams players talking about how we
knew what the Cowboys defense was gonna do the minute
that they lined up. So I don't know how much
(13:21):
of that is gonna change under Mike Nolan. Uh, Cowboys
have been running a four three. Nolan has been known
to do both three four and four three. Maybe, just
maybe he's picked up a couple of things there with
the Saints, which is possible. But it just both of
these hires to me scream, Jerry thinks he's ready to
(13:43):
win now. And that was what the big That was
what the big move was to get Mike McCarthy right away.
Didn't white Mike McCarthy being hired someplace else. Jerry wanted
to play a little safe of proven winner, a guy
that has a Super Bowl, a guy that is coached
Aaron Rodgers, guy that you know was that with Steve
(14:04):
Young was another guy that he was part of you know,
um early on in his career. So all of this
just screams yep, you got experience. Yep. Jerry is still
going to have his fingerprints all over this roster. And
you don't have to look any further than Kellen Moore,
the uh, the offensive coordinator who was under contract, also
(14:27):
a cowboy, former cowboy backup quarterback yep, now coach very allah,
Jason Garrett. Yeah, it looks like Mike McCarthy has gone
out of his way to let everyone know that he
is open, absolutely open to retaining Kellen Moore in what capacity.
I have no idea or why you would even keep
(14:47):
him outside of the fact that Jerry wants you to
keep him. Because Jerry's got him on the contract and
Jerry is paying, and he's a cowboy. So Kellen Moore uh.
And this is not how it generally works. Guys holdovers
from previous staffs, especially when offensive minded guys come in,
they tend to um. Yeah, they don't tend to risk it.
(15:09):
They're bringing their own guys across every level unless there
is some sort of unbelievable relationship between the quarterback and
the o C. And and I think we can all
agree at first time offensive coordinator last year, Kellen Moore,
there was really you know, there's no history there with
Dak Prescott to warrant him staying outside of Jerry Jones
(15:32):
wanting him to stay. And there you go. I mean
to me, everything that's happened over the last twenty four
hours encapsulates exactly what the Dallas Cowboys are and why
the Dallas Cowboys will continue to under achieve on many levels. Uh,
and it seems like a reach. I don't have a
problem with Mike McCarthy. He has told anybody and everybody
(15:53):
who will listen in the media that he has spent
the last year or so away from the game and
realizing getting better, evolving analytics, you know, get getting back
and I've and I'm I love that. I applaud guys
who do that. I applaud the fact that guys are
willing to evolve instead of it's my way or the highway,
because those guys usually flatline in their careers are over.
(16:16):
So you're never too old, You're never too young to
continue to evolve. And learn new things, and and I
hope he does. I I got no problem with Mike McCarthy.
But what I do know about Mike McCarthy, and what
I know about this situation in Dallas, is that Mike
McCarthy is going to have probably they gave him a
(16:37):
five year contract, but the guy pulling the strings here
are still the puppet master is still gonna be Jerry Jones.
So it's just another face and another guy that is
going to feel the heat the minute you don't live
up to the Jerry Jones expectations, which, let's face the guys,
is it's weel. Win season is a trip to the
super Bowl. At the very least, Jerry thinks he's got
(16:59):
plenty enough talent and has bought himself a super Bowl
winning team, which is why he didn't get innovative and
didn't go the Lincoln Riley or the Matt rule or
the uh something new and something different now. He went
the safer route a guy that was begging to get
back into the league as a head coach, and he did.
And this might very well be exactly what the Cowboys need,
(17:22):
But I doubt it. Um I doubt it, because everything
in this higher, including his defensive coordinator, including him keeping
Kellen Moore tells me it's just gonna be a little
bit more of the same old, same old with the
Dallas Cowboys, only they're going to have an analytics department
this time. Jason Garrett was somebody that was definitely up
(17:43):
at the podium, much like Mike McCarthy during his last
couple of years there in Green Bay talking about how
analytics analytics, I don't you know, I don't even think
about that. It doesn't factor into the equation. Jason Garrett
said the same thing. Apparently Mike McCarthy has been analytics
everybody and apparently sold Jerry on it. So they'll have
(18:05):
an analytics department and they'll use it. How many wins
that equates? Who I have congratulation like McCarthy? How Cowboys
head coach? All right, more on that controversy. DFS coming
on deck or the Bridge. Sports grid dot Com Betting
insights and entertainment at your fingertips as our team covers
(18:29):
the most important topics in sports wagering, real time odds,
predictive betting models, expert picks, and more. Want the edge
than get on the grid. Sports grid dot com alright,
(18:52):
time to get on the grid here people and find
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Subscribe at that little bell of the upper right hand corner.
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(19:14):
who right now would love to be the next Daily
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code green to act. Debate your free trial and remember
Daily Roado dot com. It's where millionaires are made. Now
millionaires are also made by playing DFS. And we have
we have brought we've Drew dank Meyer and and a
few other guys of course at the Daily Roado team
(20:20):
that continue to take down thirty thou hundred thousand, two
fifty thousand million dollar jackpots on dfs. And uh, there's
a reason why you should get the Daily Roado dot com.
But there was, and this is not so uncommon, It's
a little bit more on it's more and more common
in people realize, Uh, Daily Fantasy and DFS scandals not
(20:45):
exactly new to the game. And but the problem is
when you include The Bachelor, the television show The Bachelor,
and you mix in DFS, the Bachelor and a whole
lot of unnecessary attention to yourself, then you probably are
(21:06):
going to create a scandal of some sort, especially when
you win a million dollar DFS contest with Draft Kings.
So yesterday this story was was breaking and late morning
and we had not heard back from Draft Kings early on.
It took them a little while to eventually respond to
(21:28):
the controversy surrounding it, and eventually their answer was we
just learned about it, we're gonna go ahead and investigated, YadA, YadA, YadA.
So basically in a nutshell is that we had uh,
Jade Roper who was on The Bachelor season nineteen, now
her and her husband who was Tanner Tolbert. He was
(21:49):
on The Bachelor. She met him actually on The Bachelor
in Paradise season two. So these these two are reality
TV people. He is apparently a big time fantasy DFS player.
And it didn't take long, I guess after the tournament
was done, and of course draft Kings like other people,
(22:12):
posts their wins and you know, get people access to
the winning lineups and everything that's right after they're done.
So it doesn't take long for DFS Twitter to put
on their sleuth hats and go to work here and
figure out, all right, what's going on, how did we lose?
How did this happen? What's going on? Wow? Apparently it
(22:32):
was deducted that not only did did Jade Roper, but
her husband, Tanner Tolbert. Apparently they violated or at least
the claim is, they violated draft king rules to gain
an advantage on the field, and they made so much
noise yesterday that they went ahead and of course, now
(22:53):
Draft Kings says, we're going to go ahead and investigate
and see exactly what's happening. The bottom line when it
comes down to it is that they gave themselves they
combined for three hundred lineups at a piece, and up
the three hundred lineups, two d and nine eight of
them were unique. And that means they were strategizing by
(23:17):
actually pulling their lineups so they wouldn't overlap on duplicate players,
and that of course increases their chances of having at
least one of the lineups win something, and that gives
them an unfair competitive advantage over the field. That was
the big problem yesterday with a lot of the DFS
Twitter folks saying they looked at all three hundred lineups.
(23:40):
I don't know who's got this kind of time, but
yes they people were diving in looking at all three
hundred lineups. And when you have lineups and two of
them are very unique to the situation, yeah, there might
be uh, there might be a flag raised as far
(24:01):
as that goes. Now. Of course, if this is the case,
and if this is what DraftKings finds out, then um
that one million dollar payment will no longer be In fact,
from what I understand, the million dollar payment has not
been paid out because they are in fact investigating this
at Draft Kings. So I don't know what the decision
(24:23):
is going to be. But what I do know is
that a lot of the a lot of the folks
that take this very seriously and do this for a living,
we're not happy with this. And in fact, it almost
showed yesterday that this girl, Jade Roper uh they even
went back through her entire timeline of Twitter and Instagram
(24:47):
and they could find not one, uh, not one post
about lineups or talking DFS or football or anything along
those lines. So the fact that she was her line
up that ended up winning, I think that was the
bigger problem is because she won the Lion Up, and
it was quite obvious to a lot of folks that
(25:08):
she is not, you know, somebody that would drop a
hundred and fifty unique DFS lineups into a tournament, since
that's not really what she does. Everyone kind of knew
it was it would definitely have been him. But when
they break down the lineups, I don't know how they're
going to explain it away. I don't know what the
outcome is gonna be. But folks within the DFS community
(25:32):
have been are screaming and yelling about this, and I
don't think that they're Bachelor history and the fact that
they do have a platform like that, I don't think
their popularity helped them at all in this situation. In fact,
if they would have left just an egg avatar on
there instead of you know, posting her picture with with him,
(25:53):
nobody probably would have noticed. But that's exactly where they
are at now. I don't know whether or not that
Draft Kings, the CEO, Jason Robbins, tweeted out late after
yesterday afternoon saying, um, we are looking into this. It
just came to our attention. We will uh, we will
keep people abreast of what what we find. So I
(26:15):
don't know how long it's gonna take. But Draft Kings,
of course at this point, has not released a million
dollars to them. Now they are saying that, you know,
no harm, no foul, We're just really good at what
we do. So the DFS drama and who who to
thunk it? Guys, DFS, you know, put the lineup in William,
(26:36):
you know, win a million bucks, go on with your life,
go to the next tournament, everybody wins. No. Apparently this
is not uncommon from from some of the threads that
we see on Twitter, where there are always guys trying
to skirt the rules, and of course it's very easy
to be policed because there are and you can take
comfort in this knowing that in the DFS community they
(26:59):
police themselves. The police themselves pretty well, which is even
more impressive. Why our friends Drew dink Meyer and company
at Daily rodo they continue to do this on an
everyday basis and they continue to bring home the money
and the winds, and they are not doing it because
they're including their wives, their girlfriends or anybody else to
(27:19):
to gain themselves a competitive edge. That what they're doing
is the work and using Daily roado dot com. So yes,
it's it certainly can be done the right way without
having to cheat. And we'll see, we'll see what they
find out and whether or not they'll release that million dollars.
But I know a lot of people in the DFS
community they're gonna be watching what the ruling is here
(27:39):
rather quickly because if you're DraftKings, I don't know how
you let that slide. I don't know how, I don't
know how you do that, because you open up a
Pandora's box if you say they did nothing wrong, and
you're inviting a whole lot of other very smart people
in there too, Uh, do exactly that. And I don't
I don't know how. I don't know how how that's
(28:02):
gonna work in the long run. But we'll keep an
eye and as soon as we know, we'll let you
know what the determining factor was and is. And maybe,
just maybe, I hope they didn't spend that million dollars
already because it may not be coming their way, but
what will be coming your way, of course, is a
bunch of football games in this Saturday and Sunday, and
(28:26):
specifically in the NFL. In the NFC, we've got some
interesting line movement that is happening here. Uh. And we've
got to watch the markets carefully, guys, as we get
ready for the divisional matchups here because it's again the
only games out four games. There's gonna be a lot
(28:47):
of recreational dollars here. Understanding and following the market and
seeing where the money starts, where it ends, where it
goes during the week all helps you have a better
understanding of Number one, who the public loves, and number
two who the pros love. And where is the value
being shaded here one way or the other, Because these
(29:09):
numbers are well, they are sharp, guys, and we have
been telling you that it looked no further than Bowl season.
If you're just joining us, we told you last night
we had the Bowl game, the final bowl game before
the National championship, and just look at the numbers the
way they bear out. You had twenty favorites win, you
(29:30):
had nineteen underdogs win, and you had one push. You
also had twenty totals go over, nineteen total under and
one total push. That is ridiculous. That is unbelievable. And
it just proves the point that the market will tell
you a lot by following it as long as you
(29:51):
stay on top of it. Because all of those numbers
started out in one spot, all of those games, all
forty Bowl games, started out in one number, and eventually,
by the time kickoff came, they landed on a number
that gave the sports book on one side. On the
(30:14):
other that's what we call a sharp market, folks, and
the sports books they make money for a reason. The
whole question is did you use that knowledge in order
to make yourself any money during bowl season and if not,
what could you have done better? We'll see if we
can apply those same principles here to the NFL Vikings
(30:35):
forty nine or Seahawks Green Bay will do that next year.
On the Grid sports grid dot com. I want to
be the next Daily Fantasy Millionaire DUNC on your NBA
DFS competition with Daily Roddles dot com and dominate on
findel and DraftKings this season. Compete with the pros with
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(30:57):
swap support and much more safe temper sent on winning
NBA DFS advice with promo code dunk. Visit Daily road
dot com backslash DUNC to learn more. So those of
(31:24):
you that bitched and moaned all year long about how
the NFL product sucks, how do you give us the
Bears on Monday night Thursday night? Terrible bulk? But yeah,
well the numbers are in here, uh from this past
weekend's wild card game, and the ratings are in, and
(31:46):
so what we have learned is apparently that Seahawks Eagles
game has generated the biggest TV audience since the Super Bowl.
So that that's Eagles see Ehawks in what amounted to
be a yawn fest of a game. Really Uh yeah
that um, they couldn't get enough, that's right, We could
(32:09):
not get enough in this country of eyeballs to television sets.
And that is the largest TV audience of any show
since last year's Super Bowl fifty three. So the audience
of just over close to thirty six million people tuned
in for the Seahawks Eagles game a little bit, believe
(32:31):
it or not, just a slight drop from what last
year's was very slight. But last year you had the
Eagles Bears, and of course Chicago was a much bigger
media market than than what Seattle is, uh and it
was a much more exciting game. But even still to
be able to have those kinds of numbers. The Saints game,
by the way, Viking Saints on Fox generated thirty million
(32:56):
eyeballs to television sets. That was the early game, one
PM game, and that was an increase over the twenty
five million that watched last year's Chargers Ravens game from
Wild Cards Sunday. That was a year. So we continue
to see increases in viewership this year, uh in fact,
(33:20):
for the weekend in total, both Saturday end Sunday. Now,
of course, Sunday always going to have a few more
eyeballs onto television set because it is Sunday as opposed
to Saturday, where people are out and about. You've got
an early game, you've got a late game. But the
two games, all four games in fact, averaged just under
thirty one million viewers. That is a seven percent increase
(33:45):
over last year, and it is the largest total that
the NFL has seen in four years. So you keep
bitching and moaning about how the product sucks, not gonna watch.
It's terriball, it's awful, I hate it's the Bears, the Jets,
it's you go ahead. Meanwhile, the NFL will continue to
(34:06):
count the billions of dollars that they bring in in revenue,
as advertisers continue to pay billions of dollars to be
in front of those thirty one million people every chance
they get that consume an event on TV that continues
to rise even though the product is apparently down. Yeah,
(34:28):
well it's it's not down over the course of a season,
and it's certainly ain't down when the playoffs come in
urgency comes. It continues to be must watch television, and
those numbers, uh, they are just going to continue. And
bear in mind here, guys, Um, you don't have a
New York team in here. You don't have an l
(34:50):
A team, you don't have a Chicago team, you don't
have national brands like the Patriots anymore, the Steelers, the Cowboys.
None of that ext prists moving on to the round
of eight here. So I'll be interested to see what's
gonna happen to these ratings moving forward. But if this
weekend was any indicator, yeah, this is uh. Eagles Seahawks, Guys,
(35:15):
Eagles Seahawks on Sunday afternoon was the biggest TV audience
since the Super Bowl. The NFL continues to print money,
no matter how much people want to bitch and moan
about it or the refs. How many wee can bitch
and moan about the refs all day long. It's terrible products.
So you know what we do. We go right back
(35:36):
to the television and we consume it all over again,
waiting to be aggravated, waiting to be piste off, waiting
to bitch and moan and say how terrible the game is.
And how terrible the product is. Yeah, right, just make
sure it's on the following week so I can watch
it and bitch and moan about it again afterwards. The
NFL knows this, And if you want to know why
it is that, why don't they fix the rest? Why
(35:57):
don't they do? They don't have to look at the numbers.
This isn't a sharp decrease, guys. This is a ridiculous
billion dollar increase of what is going on with eyeballs
the TVs without any blue bloods in it. No New
York Giants, no New York Jets, no Dallas Cowboys, No
we don't have any, No Steelers, none of the blue
(36:19):
bloods are in this. Nope. Instead we've got ourselves Seahawks, Eagles, uh, Titans, Houston,
which is a pretty decent market, but obviously they are
nothing compared to what the Cowboys is in Texas. So
again they are going to print money, the NFL, because
that's what they do. Now do have, of course, a
(36:43):
couple of blue bloods that will be playing this weekend,
certainly in the NFC, as the San Francisco forty Niners
will be on display. They're taking on the Minnesota Vikings
and the Green Bay Packers will be taking on those.
We'll be taken on those Seattle Seahawks in Lambeau Fields.
So the Vikings come into this game, and it's interesting
(37:09):
they are playing. We know this guy's with house money
right now. The Vikings weren't supposed to win there are
six seed, but they got the upset victory. They went
out right over in New Orleans Saints team to twenty
that were seven and a half point dogs. Kurt Cousins
got the win. He made a couple of monster throws.
Will he be able to do that again? I don't know.
(37:31):
We're gonna have to wait to find out. Obviously, this
is gonna be a little bit better defense than what
the than what the what they saw there from the
New Orleans Saints. So it'll be interesting. But I will
say this, the line opened with the forty Niners as
a seven point home favorite. I have seen even some
(37:52):
places go to six and a half open up at
six and a half. But it's quite obvious two thirds
of the money of the bets rather are coming in
right now are coming in on the forty Niners. And yet, guys,
as I'm looking across the board, here at many of
the sports books around this country, that line is frozen
(38:14):
at seven. In fact, the sports books that opened it
up at seven, it remains at seven. The sports books
that opened it up at six and a half, yep,
that's still at six and a half. And yet the
tickets come rolling in here on the forty niners laying
the points. So why, I ask you, is this line
(38:34):
not moving with the amount of tickets that are being
bet now It's quite obvious, guys, there is serious professional
money and liability right now on the vikings plus the points.
And I don't blame them from the standpoint of Look
at divisional round dogs right now, here's what we know.
(38:55):
Here's what the trends tell us divisional round dogs thirty
twenty four against the numbers since two thousand three. That
is good for folks, those of you that might be
new to sports investing. Uh, if I can get sixty
percent a winning percentage, I'm probably not on this show.
I'm making millions of dollars and really don't need any
(39:18):
of this, but very hard to get there. So when
you have something that says sixty one percent since two
thousand three, that's a pretty good database and you also
are seeing where the liability lies here with the sports books,
because the sports books aren't about picking who's gonna win
or lose. The sports books are simply trying to make
(39:40):
it so they have liability that hovers right around fifty
percent on both sides, so they don't lose. They just
make the big They make that you know, you've got
a bet eleven and to win to win ten. So
they are just hoping to be able to get equal
bets on both sides, and right now they are getting
way more our bets laying the points with the forty
(40:02):
Niners than they are on the Vikings. But the line
ain't moving, and the line ain't moving because the bigger bets,
the more liability. Forget about. The public is clearly on
the forty Niners right now, and yet the pros are
clearly on the Minnesota Vikings with that seven points, with
that touchdown, even the six and a half at this point,
(40:23):
and the numbers bear out dogs very profitable in this
round of the playoffs in the NFL since two thousand
and three. It's also and this is key, and I
want you guys to remember this, it's been very profitable.
Okay to bet against teams coming off of by in
this point of the playoffs. And what do I mean
(40:44):
by that? Fifty two and forty three against the number.
That's good for just over fifty guys. So it has
been profitable to back the dogs, and it has been
profitable to fade those teams who I have sat home
and had to buy. You know, you think there's an
advantage there. Nope, not necessarily, guys. Fifty two and forty
(41:08):
three against the number since two thousand three. I can
also tell you that in that game, the under seems
to be getting uh, some some interesting love from the
professional betters. Total opened up at forty five and a half.
I'm seeing that down to even forty four and a
half in some places. I don't know how much the
weather is going to play. Keep an eye on the
(41:29):
weather forecast. Currently right now, temperature will be in the
mid fifties eight to ten mile per hour wins. Uh.
Both of these teams, both the forty niners and the Vikings,
have been a little bit more profitable to the over
throughout the year, with Minnesota going nine and eight to
the over in San Francisco going eight seven and one
to the over. So It's a very interesting dichotomy with
(41:54):
that Minnesota Vikings forty Niners game. And I can tell
you the Seahawks and the Packers. Uh, this is another
classic pros versus the Joe's here, guys. Uh, Seattle, we
know h took down the Eagles, and of course green
Bay is sitting there and waiting. Um. The public is
(42:17):
hammering Russell Wilson. They cannot believe Russell Wilson and the
Seattle Seahawks are getting points. And roughly now, as I'm
looking at the numbers, more than two thirds of the bets,
guys are backing Seattle. Right now, however, the Packers line
has moved up from three and a half to four.
(42:38):
So what does that tell you? The public hammering? Two
thirds of the bets are backing not only the forty Niners,
but they're also backing the dog here, the Seattle Seahawks.
And yet the line is going the other way or
not moving in either of these games. So we've got classic.
The line is drawn in the sand here with these games, guys,
(42:58):
the pros love the vi Kings, The pros love green
Bay at home. The public loves the forty Niners at home,
and they love Russell Wilson getting points in lambeau Field.
So and again Seahawks do have some value there with
that trend. I gave you thirty eight and twenty four
(43:19):
against the number sixty profitable. The fade teams coming off
of by that being the green Bay Packers. However, the
pros they're not buying it in UH, They're not buying
it in the green Bay game. They are buying it
however with the Minnesota Vikings in San Francisco forty niners.
So the under also continuing to get looks a little
(43:42):
bit a little bit of love here. It is moving
one way, it's moving down. Opened up at forty six
and a half, I'm seeing forty forty five and a half.
And of course the temperature in that game at lambeau
Field that will be in the low twenties to high teens, yes, twenties.
The high teams UH seven mile per hour wins, seven
(44:03):
eight mile prile wins at lambeau Fields. And as far
as the split between Seattle and green Bay, Seattle eight
eight and one to pretty consistent green Bay tenants six
to the under, including five and three to the under
at home in lambeau Field, this year. So we've got
(44:24):
a couple of games here in the NFC that are
clearly pros versus the Joes, and in one game they
are backing the dog. In the yellow game, they're backing
the favorite. So somebody's gonna be right, somebody's gonna be wrong.
What about any other matchups, Well, we'll take a look
(44:45):
at the a f C. We'll do that coming up
this hour here as we look to make it rain
on the grid sports grade dot com. In the meantime,
you got yourself six NBA games, twelve n NHL games,
twenty nine college basketball games. Today, guys, make it a
profitable day. We'll break it down for you again tomorrow.
You're on the grid. Good. I want to be the
(45:10):
next Daily Fantasy Millionaire. Dunk on your NBA DFS competition
with Daily Rodal dot com and dominate on fandel and
DraftKings this season. Compete with the pros with Daily Rodal
dot com optimizer and the most accurate projections in NBA DFS,
plus line up alerts, breaking news, lake swap support, and
much more. Save ten percent on winning NBA DFS advice
(45:31):
with promo code Dunk. Visit Daily Rodo dot com backslash
DUNC to learn more. Hivert. Look, I need your help.
Here's would you miss on the morning line. Yeah, they
don't tend to risk it. They're bringing their own guys
across every level unless there is some sort of unbelievable
(45:55):
relationship between the quarterback and E O C. And I
and I think we could all agree. At first time
offensive coordinator last year Kellen Moore, there was really you know,
there's no history there with Dak Prescott to warrant him
staying outside of Jerry Jones wanting him to stay and
there you go. I mean to me, everything that's happened
over the last twenty four hours encapsulates exactly what the
(46:17):
Dallas Cowboys are and why the Dallas Cowboys will continue
to underachieve on many levels. Uh, and it seems like
a reach. I don't have a problem with Mike McCarthy.
He has told anybody and everybody who will listen in
the media that he has spent the last year or
so away from the game analyzing, getting better, evolving analytics,
(46:39):
you know, getting better. And I and I'm I love that.
I applaud guys who do that. I applaud the fact
that guys are willing to evolve instead of it's my
way or the highway, because those guys usually flatline in
their careers are over so you're never too old. You're
never too young to continue to evolve and learn new things.
And and I hope he does. I I got no
(46:59):
problem Mike McCarthy. But what I do know about Mike McCarthy,
and what I know about this situation in Dallas, is
that Mike McCarthy is going to have probably the game
a five year contract. But the guy pulling the strings
here are still the puppet master is still gonna be
Jerry Jones. So it's just another face and another guy
(47:21):
that is going to feel the heat the minute you
don't live up to the Jerry Jones expectations, which, let's
face the guys, is a twelve win season is a
trip to the super Bowl. At the very least. Jerry
thinks he's got plenty enough talent and has bought himself
a super Bowl winning team, which is why he didn't
get innovative and didn't go the Lincoln Riley or the
Matt rule or the uh something new and something different now.
(47:44):
He went the safer out a guy that was begging
to get back into the league as I head coach,
and he did, And this might very well be exactly
what the Cowboys need, But I doubt it. Um I
doubt it because everything in this higher, including his defensive
coordinator in him keeping Kellen Moore tells me it's just
gonna be a little bit more of the same old,
same old with the Dallas Cowboys, only they're going to
(48:07):
have an analytics department this time. Jason Garrett was somebody
that was definitely up at the podium, much like Mike
McCarthy during his last couple of years there in Green Bay,
talking about how analytics analytics, I don't you know, I
don't even think about that. It doesn't factor into the equation.
Grayson Garrett said the same thing. Apparently Mike McCarthy has
(48:28):
been selling analytics everybody and apparently sold Jerry on it.
So they'll have an analytics department and they'll use it.
How many wins that equates too? I have like
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Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Special Summer Offer: Exclusively on Apple Podcasts, try our Dateline Premium subscription completely free for one month! With Dateline Premium, you get every episode ad-free plus exclusive bonus content.
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