April 29, 2021 • 27 mins
There's no position in sports more important or challenging to fill than that of an NFL quarterback. Super Bowl-winning coach Brian Billick takes you through the process of identifying the tangibles and intangibles of success, in search of the key to better predicting who will make it as a top-ranked NFL franchise QB. In episode 1, Brian talks with the co-author of The Q Factor Jim Dale, and the inspiration for their new book. Brian also talks with former NFL QB Archie manning about how the process of selecting a QB has changed. Brian also ponders what would have happened if Archie was drafted to the Pittsburgh Steelers instead of New Orleans?
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
I'm Brian Billick, and this is the Q factor. So
after being in this business for better than forty years,
and and frankly, the successes and failures that I've had
can almost always be directly attributed to the quarterbacks I
got to work with. And it started made me think
(00:21):
about how we predict or don't predict leadership, particularly quarterback
type leadership on the field, and what separates good from
great and why can't we be? Why are why are
we not that good at it? I can't think of
a better guy than to ask Archie Manning what went wrong?
(00:41):
What is it about this process that leaves us wanting
so often with these first round picks? You know, I'm
kind of I'm kind of old school, you know when
I came out a hundred almost fifty years ago. Of
course they didn't. They wan't much time before the draft.
I was. I was drafted on the journey on in January.
So business story wakesap Dot played in my last games.
(01:04):
So they want a lot of you know, they watched fail,
but they didn't interview you. And there's no combine and
and and and you can understand kind of getting it wrong.
There's no position in sports more important or challenging to
fill than that of an NFL quarterback. You can win
games without a great one, even the Super Bowl, but
(01:26):
it's hard, very hard. I know I did it, but
not for lack of searching. Winning a championship without the
elite quarterback took the best defense in the modern history
of the NFL. Ever since then, after leaving the coaching
ranks and gaining the clarity of distance perspective and analysis,
I've been determined to see if there's a better way
to evaluate the quarterback talent and potential. I set out
(01:47):
in search of the Q factor. The hypothesis was to
study a small select group of highly rated, high draft
pick quarterback prospects their skills, stats, and character traits, and
track their performance and circumstances, and in doing so maybe
uncovered patterns of what separates great from merely very good
to an outright bust, and maybe reveal methods of spotting
(02:08):
and developing future talent. That is the Q factor. So
we put the two thousand eighteen draft class, the most
touted quarterback draft class in a decade, under the microscope.
Who they are, how they got there, how they're playing now,
how well they develop and what each is made of talent, character, matrix,
and magic. Studying the two thous eighteen class may reveal
(02:29):
the path to better measurement and better prediction, to finding
a formula for prognosticating slightly better and slightly better, just
fractionally better, maybe enough to make the difference between good
and great, between salary cap dollars spent well instead of burned,
to finding a few more leaders and a few fewer busts,
maybe even a formula that translates into identifying quarterback types
(02:51):
in fields beyond the football field. Episode one, What is
the Problem? So a couple of years ago James Dale,
who's a collaborative co author on books ranging from sports
to negotiation, to medicine and politics, including We're Better Than
This with Congressman Elijah Cummings Together We Were eleven ft
(03:14):
nine with Hall of Fame Picture Jim Palmer, The Power
of Nights with agent negotiator Ron Shapiro, and the New
York Times bestseller Just Show Up with Cal Ripken Jr.
He's a big football fan, somewhat of a novice obviously,
but is intrigued by the idea of how difficult it
has been to draft and develop a quarterback in the
National Football League. He's a fan of the Baltimore Ravens.
(03:36):
When I was there, saw the trials and tribulations we
went through and trying to identify and procuring players at
that position, and felt like, there's got to be a
better way of doing this. The sport wasn't really the
sport of football wasn't really that good at figuring out
who was going to be good. We were pretty clear
(03:56):
on who was good because we saw him perform, talking
about at the professional level, and it started making me
think about how we predict or don't predict leadership, particularly
quarterback type leadership on the field, and what separates good
from great and why can't we be why are why
are we not that good at it um? And how
(04:18):
how might we get better? And I started to dig
into this idea of this you know what, what makes
a quarterback? And that led me to say, I need
to pair up with an expert, and that took me
to you, coach. So after being in this business for
better than forty years and and frankly, the successes and
failures that I've had can almost always be directly attributed
(04:41):
to the quarterbacks, I got to work with that includes
hall of famers like Warren Moon to our first round
draft choice Kyle Boehler with the Baltimore Ravens that ended
up kind of being a bust. So obviously I've been
pulling this topic for a while and to have Jim
approached me with this kind of wide eyed enthusia yes, um,
and these questions that prompted me to question the methods
(05:05):
we used and how could we quantify them, And from
the perspective of clearly he had some pre conditioned ideas
as to what he thought it was about, and together
we worked through a process of finding out maybe really
what was the difference between good and great. I've altered
it a lot. I think the one thing I'd say
(05:25):
that held throughout the process, and I you probably would
agree with this, is that we did find some ways
I think of perhaps making the process of identifying talent
incrementally better, but they might not be the ones we
thought we'd find. Um. When I when you and I
first talked, you said, yes, I agree, we're the game
(05:47):
of football. Isn't that good at at the predictive process
on quarterbacks in particular, And in fact your expression was
it's a deal if you draft a quarterback early in
the draft, first round, you've got a chance you could
get a good one, maybe great, and you get a
(06:09):
maybe an okay one all the way to bust. And
that's that's as you know, just from a financial standpoint
and the commitment of a major position. But from financial standpoint,
that's an enormous amount of money that's being gambled from
limited salary cap money and half the time it sort
of gets plushed down the drain. I would say that
(06:31):
we learned that maybe we can improve that fifty or
fifty two or fifty four percent on one side, and
that could be the difference in winning one game, and
one game could be a wild card spot in a
wild card spot, could be in the super Bowl. So
it can make a lot of difference. Okay, So why
(06:51):
is it so difficult to identify the makings of a
great quarterback? In most positions, you can quantify the individual
jewel traits that it takes to be successful at that position.
If you're looking at wide receiver, obviously you look a
have to look at someone in their ability to get
off the line to separate from the defender. Does he
(07:12):
have the size or the speed to overcome the defensive
player that he's facing. And these are all easier to
quantify for a quarterback. The difficulty is there's no one
set scale. Different attributes make for great quarterbacks. You sit
with anybody and discuss maybe the top ten quarterbacks of
all time, and you may come up with twelve to
(07:34):
thirteen different names. But then when you sit and look at, okay,
of these twelve to fifteen names, we have what made
them each great? Well, something totally different. Could it be
the pure delivery and strength of Troy Aikman, Could be
the polished throw and stroke of Warren Moon. Could it
be the athleticism in the pocket and the accuracy of
(07:55):
a Joe Montana. Is it the pure just ability to
spin ball like a Dan Marino. You can't look at
one set of attributes and say, Okay, this is what
makes a great quarterback, because it's going to be different,
and it's going to be different attributes for each player
that you look at and so identifying those individual attributes
(08:18):
it's a moving target, and it's a moving target in
a changing game. That compounds the problem absolutely absolutely. And
one of the things we talked about was, uh, you
know you you educated me and that that for many
years that a lot of scouts, coaches, gms would be
looking at certain factors that are that are okay, but
not that that indicative like height, which can be which
(08:42):
can throw you off. And you can, as as we
all well know, you can almost miss a Russell Wilson
or Drew Brees because you said, well, mean he's a
little too short. You can say level of play, you
know where where he played college ball, maybe it wasn't
quite high enough. Or conversely, you can make excuses and
that you and you and you told me many stories
(09:02):
on this and we had many, uh examples of it.
Make excuse me. While that guy he was he was
throwing two poor receivers. He'll get in the NFL and
held much better receivers in his completion rate will go up,
and as we know, it rarely goes up. It might
go up a little bit, but it rarely goes up
much because you're also up against these brutal defenses that
(09:23):
are much better than the head in college. So doesn't
apply to other fields, I think very much. So you
know we talked about, doesn't apply to business because businesses
often pick that that same the same kind of guy
that we that we got. We've been derailed on before
in football. That is, a guy with a great resume,
(09:44):
went to a top business school as an m b A.
And he and he's pretty good at the top level
of business, you know, at the higher levels, but maybe
not at the CEO level, because he may not have
that ability to make a decision, a smart decision when
the play falls apart, so to speak, in two and
a half seconds, that CEO has to do that same
(10:06):
thing when the competitor suddenly put a squeeze on in
the blowers prices, surrounds the store, put stores near where
his stores are, put reps on the street, changes the game,
and all of a sudden, that's CEO said, waited, wait,
this wasn't in my plan. Does he get sacked or
does he come up with a play? Okay, So we've
got understanding that there are multiple attributes that a quarterback
(10:30):
has to have to play in this league, and that
it will vary from player to player in a league
that the very position itself is possibly changing, so as
to which attributes are going to now be functional in
today's game versus the past history we have. And then
there's the age old question of nature versus nurture? Does
(10:52):
the system make the quarterback? Does the quarterback make the system?
Of course, if you ask the scouts, they've never made
a mistake. Oh, this guy could play, he had all
the abilities. We just didn't utilize him properly in the system.
And of course as coaches, we we've never made a mistake. No,
this guy didn't have the proper abilities coming in to
run our system. So you made the mistake in evaluating
(11:15):
and drafting this guy. So there's this constant back and
forth as you do have to now do the post
mortem of saying, Okay, were we wrong about the attributes
this guy had or did we not utilize them properly
in the system that we had? That I want to say,
that's something that you said to me one day when
we were working on this. You know, it's the marriage,
(11:36):
it's the match. And if if if Patrick Mahomes wasn't
playing with Andy Reid and the and the Chiefs at
that time, what would you have if Joe Montana didn't play, uh,
you know, for at that time and place, what would
have happened? Even the extreme example we've everybody's sort of
toyed with, which is you know Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf.
(11:58):
Mike Ryan Leaf have succeed he did had he been
with a different team, Mike Peyton Manning have sputtered somewhere else.
Hard to say, but the quarterback head coach match is
probably the critical match. And if the quarter if the
head coach can't embrace the talents of that given quarterback
(12:19):
instead try to jam him into an old system. It's
not gonna work. Okay, So let's let's put some meat
on this phone. Let's talk about real world circumstances. There
once was a great quarterback. It's taken in the nineteen
(12:40):
one draft. Big strong. I mean, this guy could spin it,
possessed all the tools, and it forged his game in
the high level pressure and competition of the SEC. Prostcrouts
were raving about him early. They admired his poises, brains,
his field vision. He was a leader of men. This
is a can't miss prospect. Then he was drafted, and
though he was all things that the scouts said he was,
(13:01):
he labored in relative obscurity for more than a decade
in the NFL. Injuries, setbacks, interceptions, He played for three
different teams, never made the playoffs. Never even played on
a team with a winning record. So this great quarterback
was perceived at best a journeyman, at worst a bust
as the second overall pick in the NFL draft, but
(13:23):
those are the brakes, and he soldiered through it. Never complained.
That's not his character. He's too classy for that. Good
solid family man goes on to have two pretty good
kids named Peyton and Eli. Yeah, I'm talking about Archie Manning,
the second pick in the two thousand seven or excuse me,
the nineteen uh NFL draft, behind Jim Plunkett, who went
(13:44):
to the then Boston Patriots, was a bus there, went
to San Francisco, which was his home, was ran out
of San Francisco before he won a World championship with
the Oakland Raiders. Of course, Archie one second. Then Dan
Pastorini went number three out of Santa clar College, went
to Houston Oilers, and although he played for a little
more than a decade and had solid numbers, never really
(14:07):
came together in terms of a really winning record in
the National Football League. So when you look at that history,
I can't think of a better guy than to ask
Archie Manning what went wrong? What is it about this
process that leaves us wanting so often with these first
round picks. You know, I'm kind of I'm kind of
(14:27):
old school, you know. When I came out a hundred
almost fifty years ago. Of course, they didn't they want
much time before the draught I was. I was drafted
on the j on the January, So this is three
weeks after I played in my last game. So there
wasn't a lot of you know, they watched film, but
they didn't interview you, and there's no combine, and and
(14:49):
and and you can understand kind of getting it wrong.
But now, oh my gosh, yeah, I mean they just
up and down a player. I got all all the
film throughout their college college days, they got on campus
work out of pro day, they interview, they interview, you
(15:11):
go to the combine. I've never I've been. I was
actually in Indianapolis this past year for the combine. I
didn't go over for anything. But I mean, you think
with all that you wouldn't miss and but we still
do that the quarterback position, and you know better than
are one. It's it's it's kind of changed around the
(15:35):
with with the spread offense. Um. Whereas you know, I
remember Brian has been almost twenty five years ago. We
started our passing camp, demanding passing Academy. And the reason
we did it, Uh Peyton was a junior Tennessee and
he said, Dad, this and this was primarily in South Louisiana,
but throughout the South, UH, quarterbacks king throw. They don't
(15:58):
throw a much in high school. They don't know about throwing.
We gotta help them, we gotta help quarterbacks and so
but we've seen it the ball through the years. And
I guess I know you you coach your West Coast guy,
you coach out west where you got into pro ball.
I thought West Coast people always threw the ball a
good bit more than they did. Say in the South,
(16:19):
some schools did, but not much. But it seemed like
he started in Texas with a lot of the high
schools in the spread offense. And we're even good passing
quarterbacks who had been throwing two times again, that was
a lot. Then they went to forty and then they
throw every you know, they're in the shotgun every day
and they throw, throw, throw, So that part of it
(16:41):
has changed, and so you you get to get to
see them. And then they go to college and UH,
throwing it more than that they used to. And you
think we could kind of analyze these kids, and um,
I'm not sure I can answer you a question. I
do know this though, I know at the end of
the day, if a kid is got a good handle
(17:06):
on the game and the threebel approach the game, he's
smart enough to play the game, and he's accurate, then
you use it can play that. I think sometimes that's
what gets you. And and you know this to the jump,
the jump from college sometimes into pro fill fill somebody's
pockets up with money. That the change in their lifestyle,
(17:27):
the change in their routine of not going to all
those types of things. You know, it affects some some
kids they don't some of this don't don't handle and
adjust to it. So I guess there's different reasons. But
at the end of the day, I just I don't know.
I don't know how we miss because we should get
it right. We analyze them so much. Okay, So it
sounds like we've made this a whole lot tougher because
(17:49):
beyond the physical traits that we can identify in terms
of what it takes to play quarterback of the National
Football League, the deciding factor maybe the set of combination
of attributes, whether it be character, work, ethic, or intelligence,
which you are a whole lot harder to quantify as
(18:11):
being the major difference between a player making it or
not making it in the National Football League. Yeah, yeah,
I think you hit it right there. I think that
that character. I think sometimes it's really a surprise that, uh,
you get a young man who's put up some good
numbers and played in a winning program one games excelled.
(18:34):
But then they don't. They don't really work at watching
fam They really don't. Some of them don't know how
um you know, the uh, the off season they shut
it down for a couple of months and now I
know you need to kind of get away from it
a little bit. But still there are things you do
to try to uh, you know, keep keep your keep
(18:55):
your body going. And yeah that the commitments, if it's
usually the commitment, and and don't you think the transition sometimes,
you know, and I know it's tough on some kids.
You know, some kids grow up with with nothing and
all of a sudden, you know, you you get a
big bonus and uh and families can bleed you a
little bit, you know, and you you want to do
(19:17):
this and do that, and you're not really given the
same commitment, the same uh time to the game because
you've gotta get better, you know. It's it's not like
I've worked hard. I always want to play pro football.
Now I'm here, but that's that's the time to go
to work, because it's it's it's it's nothing easy about it.
(19:38):
It's nothing easy about going out there and trying to
uh re read these defenses and figure out where to
go with the football and avoid turnovers and keep boot
the chains and keep your team going down the field.
But also two words you brought up, I just think
are so important for the quarterback position, character and and
(19:58):
also leadership. It's it is definitely part of this is
part of a big part of the job. So Archie
Manning is this can't miss athlete with all the attributes
both mental and physical by all accounts by the scouts.
And he goes to what some NFL historians have called
the wrongest team in the NFL at the time, and
(20:20):
that's the New Orleans Saints. They really couldn't get out
of their own way. Uh they didn't draft well. Their
general manager at one point was a retired astronaut that
had no background in the National Football League at all.
They really just couldn't get it right. Now, Archie Manning's
too classy guy to blame it on that circumstance, but
(20:41):
it does beg the question. Let's say the year before
the New Orleans Saints take Terry Bradshaw leaving Archie Manning
to go to the Pittsburgh Steelers, uh and and the
ability to hand off to Frank o'haris and throw to
Lynn Swan and John Stalworth and you won her if
if in a revisionist history, that difference would have changed
(21:05):
the trajectory of these players, underlining that the nurture that
the system itself, yeah, is pretty important. Yeah, it's a factory.
It's a factory. And I'm not it's no sire grapes
with me. It just didn't you know, we weren't very good.
And you you know this, you've been you're in coaching
a long time. Bran constant, constant change does not get
(21:27):
it done. That didn't get it done. And so that's
you know, I went there in the fifth year of
that that franchise um they had already changed it, already
changed general managers twice they changed, just changed, just had
their second coach and just going into the fifth year
and then I was there. I got traded in my
(21:49):
twelfth year in Jawn and we went through seven more
coaches there. Uh during that time. I don't I don't
know if that's a record, but it's it's a pretty
good average. So and that's no excuse, you know, we
uh we just you constantly. If you're changing front office
and you're changing head coaches, well you you know you're
gonna be changing assistant coaches, but then you're changing a
(22:11):
lot of players. You know, you've got to have some continuity.
You've got to have stability. And they found it. You've
been around pro football a long time, the Saints. It
took the Saints a long time to get it, and
and it happened with a guy named Jim Finks, you know,
and it starts in that front office. And Jim Finks
came to New Orleans and he gave for the first time,
(22:31):
he gave that that franchise stability. Uh. He had a
good coach in jama and Jamma had a staff that
had come from the USFL. And they started started winning
and they probably they really could have won more. If
the forty Niners hadn't have been so dug gone good
during during that time, they probably would have one more,
but they had to play them plus a year. So
(22:54):
Archie Manning has has gone through this not only in
his professional career in terms of the import of marrying
the right athlete with the right skills with the right organization,
but interestingly with his son's Peyton Manning. Let's remember, uh
when he was drafted, and we've already talked a little
(23:15):
bit about Ryan Leaf was the other quarterback at the
time that everybody said, okay, these are the two best quarterbacks.
And and although very few people will admit it now,
there were some that thought Ryan Lead had a bigger
upside because some thought that Peyton Manning, because of his
background and growing up in the NFL, and because of
his dad and his pedigree, that he was maybe as
(23:35):
good as he was going to be. Where Ryan Leave
was a good, big, physical athlete, was at a program
that wasn't his story through the program on his back
had success, that maybe he had the bigger upside. So
you could make the case, well, had had Peyton gone
to San Diego and all the transition they were going
through and Ryan Leaf had gone to Indianapolis with Jim
(23:56):
Mora and the stability to that created, would there be
a different story out I inore anybody else think that
would have made a difference. Ryan Leaf had a number
of issues coming out of college, and I don't think
it would have been gone gone well either way. But
let's look at Eli and Philip Rivers. This is almost
like twins separated at birth. Let's remember that Eli was
(24:17):
drafted number one overall by San Diego, but made it
clear he wasn't going to go there, So the New
York Giants drafted Philip Rivers. They swapped, so Philip went
to San Diego and Eli went to New York. Well,
Philip Rivers, who's a possible Hall of Famer going forward, uh,
languished under four different head coaches, has had statistical success,
(24:39):
but hasn't had the team's success to validate how good
a quarterback he is compared to Eli, who went to
the New York Giants. Tom Coughlin, his coach for the
first eleven years, comes away with two Super Bowls and
two Super Bowl m vps. So this is a perfect
case in point in terms of the idea of Nate
(25:00):
versus Nurture. Well, Philip has Phillips had a great career
and he's outstanding quarterback. I really think he's gonna have
a really good year with with the coach this year.
But he's gone through a lot of changes. It's been,
you know, he's he's changed changed coaches, changed coordinators, changed
changed people. Um, he was you know, he was pretty
proud of his draft class. Uh he and Philip and
(25:22):
Ben Roethlisberger. Uh HELI was the first to go, but
he he as he says, he flewed him for sixteen
years and here's been and Philip still gone. So that
was a that was a good, good quarterback class. Nobody
nobody missed on on those three. But back to the
teams that Peyton and Eli played for. I feel like,
(25:43):
as their father, one of the great blessings I've had
is they played in good organizations. I mean, now, Indianapolis
had had their trouble through the years, but is you
know when the same year that Peyton got drafted there,
Polion went there. And again I talked about Jim Thinks's stability,
(26:04):
Bill Polian gave that organization the stability from the front office.
Jim more there's some good things, but it didn't quite
worrying anybody brought in Tony Dungee, you're really talking about
stabilities and and they So a lot of people don't
know this because the Patriots have been so outstanding one
so many Super Bowls, But during that decade there the
Colts that see won more games and the than the Patriots.
(26:27):
So what does this leave us on this journey of
trying to identify the Q factor the elements that it
takes to identify, procure and develop the talents of a
true NFL quarterback. Well, clearly there has to be the
physical skills, which of all of this is maybe the
easiest to quantify. You then have to develop a process
(26:49):
that identifies the mental character and work ethic of a
player coming into this league and the maturity to be
able to handle that transition. And then finally, you have
to look at the marriage between the player and the
system that he is going to and whether it's going
to facilitate his ability to optimize his abilities and be
(27:11):
worthy of that first pick. And that's what we'll do
over the next seven episodes of The QUE Factor and
examine it through the eyes of Hall of Fame coaches,
players and general managers to see if we can truly
come up with a better process, that is the Q Factor.
(27:34):
The Q Factor and The Q Factor Audiobook are available
online and wherever books are sold.
I'm Brian Billick, and this is the Q factor. So
after being in this business for better than forty years,
and and frankly, the successes and failures that I've had
can almost always be directly attributed to the quarterbacks I
got to work with. And it started made me think
(00:21):
about how we predict or don't predict leadership, particularly quarterback
type leadership on the field, and what separates good from
great and why can't we be? Why are why are
we not that good at it? I can't think of
a better guy than to ask Archie Manning what went wrong?
(00:41):
What is it about this process that leaves us wanting
so often with these first round picks? You know, I'm
kind of I'm kind of old school, you know when
I came out a hundred almost fifty years ago. Of
course they didn't. They wan't much time before the draft.
I was. I was drafted on the journey on in January.
So business story wakesap Dot played in my last games.
(01:04):
So they want a lot of you know, they watched fail,
but they didn't interview you. And there's no combine and
and and and you can understand kind of getting it wrong.
There's no position in sports more important or challenging to
fill than that of an NFL quarterback. You can win
games without a great one, even the Super Bowl, but
(01:26):
it's hard, very hard. I know I did it, but
not for lack of searching. Winning a championship without the
elite quarterback took the best defense in the modern history
of the NFL. Ever since then, after leaving the coaching
ranks and gaining the clarity of distance perspective and analysis,
I've been determined to see if there's a better way
to evaluate the quarterback talent and potential. I set out
(01:47):
in search of the Q factor. The hypothesis was to
study a small select group of highly rated, high draft
pick quarterback prospects their skills, stats, and character traits, and
track their performance and circumstances, and in doing so maybe
uncovered patterns of what separates great from merely very good
to an outright bust, and maybe reveal methods of spotting
(02:08):
and developing future talent. That is the Q factor. So
we put the two thousand eighteen draft class, the most
touted quarterback draft class in a decade, under the microscope.
Who they are, how they got there, how they're playing now,
how well they develop and what each is made of talent, character, matrix,
and magic. Studying the two thous eighteen class may reveal
(02:29):
the path to better measurement and better prediction, to finding
a formula for prognosticating slightly better and slightly better, just
fractionally better, maybe enough to make the difference between good
and great, between salary cap dollars spent well instead of burned,
to finding a few more leaders and a few fewer busts,
maybe even a formula that translates into identifying quarterback types
(02:51):
in fields beyond the football field. Episode one, What is
the Problem? So a couple of years ago James Dale,
who's a collaborative co author on books ranging from sports
to negotiation, to medicine and politics, including We're Better Than
This with Congressman Elijah Cummings Together We Were eleven ft
(03:14):
nine with Hall of Fame Picture Jim Palmer, The Power
of Nights with agent negotiator Ron Shapiro, and the New
York Times bestseller Just Show Up with Cal Ripken Jr.
He's a big football fan, somewhat of a novice obviously,
but is intrigued by the idea of how difficult it
has been to draft and develop a quarterback in the
National Football League. He's a fan of the Baltimore Ravens.
(03:36):
When I was there, saw the trials and tribulations we
went through and trying to identify and procuring players at
that position, and felt like, there's got to be a
better way of doing this. The sport wasn't really the
sport of football wasn't really that good at figuring out
who was going to be good. We were pretty clear
(03:56):
on who was good because we saw him perform, talking
about at the professional level, and it started making me
think about how we predict or don't predict leadership, particularly
quarterback type leadership on the field, and what separates good
from great and why can't we be why are why
are we not that good at it um? And how
(04:18):
how might we get better? And I started to dig
into this idea of this you know what, what makes
a quarterback? And that led me to say, I need
to pair up with an expert, and that took me
to you, coach. So after being in this business for
better than forty years and and frankly, the successes and
failures that I've had can almost always be directly attributed
(04:41):
to the quarterbacks, I got to work with that includes
hall of famers like Warren Moon to our first round
draft choice Kyle Boehler with the Baltimore Ravens that ended
up kind of being a bust. So obviously I've been
pulling this topic for a while and to have Jim
approached me with this kind of wide eyed enthusia yes, um,
and these questions that prompted me to question the methods
(05:05):
we used and how could we quantify them, And from
the perspective of clearly he had some pre conditioned ideas
as to what he thought it was about, and together
we worked through a process of finding out maybe really
what was the difference between good and great. I've altered
it a lot. I think the one thing I'd say
(05:25):
that held throughout the process, and I you probably would
agree with this, is that we did find some ways
I think of perhaps making the process of identifying talent
incrementally better, but they might not be the ones we
thought we'd find. Um. When I when you and I
first talked, you said, yes, I agree, we're the game
(05:47):
of football. Isn't that good at at the predictive process
on quarterbacks in particular, And in fact your expression was
it's a deal if you draft a quarterback early in
the draft, first round, you've got a chance you could
get a good one, maybe great, and you get a
(06:09):
maybe an okay one all the way to bust. And
that's that's as you know, just from a financial standpoint
and the commitment of a major position. But from financial standpoint,
that's an enormous amount of money that's being gambled from
limited salary cap money and half the time it sort
of gets plushed down the drain. I would say that
(06:31):
we learned that maybe we can improve that fifty or
fifty two or fifty four percent on one side, and
that could be the difference in winning one game, and
one game could be a wild card spot in a
wild card spot, could be in the super Bowl. So
it can make a lot of difference. Okay, So why
(06:51):
is it so difficult to identify the makings of a
great quarterback? In most positions, you can quantify the individual
jewel traits that it takes to be successful at that position.
If you're looking at wide receiver, obviously you look a
have to look at someone in their ability to get
off the line to separate from the defender. Does he
(07:12):
have the size or the speed to overcome the defensive
player that he's facing. And these are all easier to
quantify for a quarterback. The difficulty is there's no one
set scale. Different attributes make for great quarterbacks. You sit
with anybody and discuss maybe the top ten quarterbacks of
all time, and you may come up with twelve to
(07:34):
thirteen different names. But then when you sit and look at, okay,
of these twelve to fifteen names, we have what made
them each great? Well, something totally different. Could it be
the pure delivery and strength of Troy Aikman, Could be
the polished throw and stroke of Warren Moon. Could it
be the athleticism in the pocket and the accuracy of
(07:55):
a Joe Montana. Is it the pure just ability to
spin ball like a Dan Marino. You can't look at
one set of attributes and say, Okay, this is what
makes a great quarterback, because it's going to be different,
and it's going to be different attributes for each player
that you look at and so identifying those individual attributes
(08:18):
it's a moving target, and it's a moving target in
a changing game. That compounds the problem absolutely absolutely. And
one of the things we talked about was, uh, you
know you you educated me and that that for many
years that a lot of scouts, coaches, gms would be
looking at certain factors that are that are okay, but
not that that indicative like height, which can be which
(08:42):
can throw you off. And you can, as as we
all well know, you can almost miss a Russell Wilson
or Drew Brees because you said, well, mean he's a
little too short. You can say level of play, you
know where where he played college ball, maybe it wasn't
quite high enough. Or conversely, you can make excuses and
that you and you and you told me many stories
(09:02):
on this and we had many, uh examples of it.
Make excuse me. While that guy he was he was
throwing two poor receivers. He'll get in the NFL and
held much better receivers in his completion rate will go up,
and as we know, it rarely goes up. It might
go up a little bit, but it rarely goes up
much because you're also up against these brutal defenses that
(09:23):
are much better than the head in college. So doesn't
apply to other fields, I think very much. So you
know we talked about, doesn't apply to business because businesses
often pick that that same the same kind of guy
that we that we got. We've been derailed on before
in football. That is, a guy with a great resume,
(09:44):
went to a top business school as an m b A.
And he and he's pretty good at the top level
of business, you know, at the higher levels, but maybe
not at the CEO level, because he may not have
that ability to make a decision, a smart decision when
the play falls apart, so to speak, in two and
a half seconds, that CEO has to do that same
(10:06):
thing when the competitor suddenly put a squeeze on in
the blowers prices, surrounds the store, put stores near where
his stores are, put reps on the street, changes the game,
and all of a sudden, that's CEO said, waited, wait,
this wasn't in my plan. Does he get sacked or
does he come up with a play? Okay, So we've
got understanding that there are multiple attributes that a quarterback
(10:30):
has to have to play in this league, and that
it will vary from player to player in a league
that the very position itself is possibly changing, so as
to which attributes are going to now be functional in
today's game versus the past history we have. And then
there's the age old question of nature versus nurture? Does
(10:52):
the system make the quarterback? Does the quarterback make the system?
Of course, if you ask the scouts, they've never made
a mistake. Oh, this guy could play, he had all
the abilities. We just didn't utilize him properly in the system.
And of course as coaches, we we've never made a mistake. No,
this guy didn't have the proper abilities coming in to
run our system. So you made the mistake in evaluating
(11:15):
and drafting this guy. So there's this constant back and
forth as you do have to now do the post
mortem of saying, Okay, were we wrong about the attributes
this guy had or did we not utilize them properly
in the system that we had? That I want to say,
that's something that you said to me one day when
we were working on this. You know, it's the marriage,
(11:36):
it's the match. And if if if Patrick Mahomes wasn't
playing with Andy Reid and the and the Chiefs at
that time, what would you have if Joe Montana didn't play, uh,
you know, for at that time and place, what would
have happened? Even the extreme example we've everybody's sort of
toyed with, which is you know Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf.
(11:58):
Mike Ryan Leaf have succeed he did had he been
with a different team, Mike Peyton Manning have sputtered somewhere else.
Hard to say, but the quarterback head coach match is
probably the critical match. And if the quarter if the
head coach can't embrace the talents of that given quarterback
(12:19):
instead try to jam him into an old system. It's
not gonna work. Okay, So let's let's put some meat
on this phone. Let's talk about real world circumstances. There
once was a great quarterback. It's taken in the nineteen
(12:40):
one draft. Big strong. I mean, this guy could spin it,
possessed all the tools, and it forged his game in
the high level pressure and competition of the SEC. Prostcrouts
were raving about him early. They admired his poises, brains,
his field vision. He was a leader of men. This
is a can't miss prospect. Then he was drafted, and
though he was all things that the scouts said he was,
(13:01):
he labored in relative obscurity for more than a decade
in the NFL. Injuries, setbacks, interceptions, He played for three
different teams, never made the playoffs. Never even played on
a team with a winning record. So this great quarterback
was perceived at best a journeyman, at worst a bust
as the second overall pick in the NFL draft, but
(13:23):
those are the brakes, and he soldiered through it. Never complained.
That's not his character. He's too classy for that. Good
solid family man goes on to have two pretty good
kids named Peyton and Eli. Yeah, I'm talking about Archie Manning,
the second pick in the two thousand seven or excuse me,
the nineteen uh NFL draft, behind Jim Plunkett, who went
(13:44):
to the then Boston Patriots, was a bus there, went
to San Francisco, which was his home, was ran out
of San Francisco before he won a World championship with
the Oakland Raiders. Of course, Archie one second. Then Dan
Pastorini went number three out of Santa clar College, went
to Houston Oilers, and although he played for a little
more than a decade and had solid numbers, never really
(14:07):
came together in terms of a really winning record in
the National Football League. So when you look at that history,
I can't think of a better guy than to ask
Archie Manning what went wrong? What is it about this
process that leaves us wanting so often with these first
round picks. You know, I'm kind of I'm kind of
(14:27):
old school, you know. When I came out a hundred
almost fifty years ago. Of course, they didn't they want
much time before the draught I was. I was drafted
on the j on the January, So this is three
weeks after I played in my last game. So there
wasn't a lot of you know, they watched film, but
they didn't interview you, and there's no combine, and and
(14:49):
and and you can understand kind of getting it wrong.
But now, oh my gosh, yeah, I mean they just
up and down a player. I got all all the
film throughout their college college days, they got on campus
work out of pro day, they interview, they interview, you
(15:11):
go to the combine. I've never I've been. I was
actually in Indianapolis this past year for the combine. I
didn't go over for anything. But I mean, you think
with all that you wouldn't miss and but we still
do that the quarterback position, and you know better than
are one. It's it's it's kind of changed around the
(15:35):
with with the spread offense. Um. Whereas you know, I
remember Brian has been almost twenty five years ago. We
started our passing camp, demanding passing Academy. And the reason
we did it, Uh Peyton was a junior Tennessee and
he said, Dad, this and this was primarily in South Louisiana,
but throughout the South, UH, quarterbacks king throw. They don't
(15:58):
throw a much in high school. They don't know about throwing.
We gotta help them, we gotta help quarterbacks and so
but we've seen it the ball through the years. And
I guess I know you you coach your West Coast guy,
you coach out west where you got into pro ball.
I thought West Coast people always threw the ball a
good bit more than they did. Say in the South,
(16:19):
some schools did, but not much. But it seemed like
he started in Texas with a lot of the high
schools in the spread offense. And we're even good passing
quarterbacks who had been throwing two times again, that was
a lot. Then they went to forty and then they
throw every you know, they're in the shotgun every day
and they throw, throw, throw, So that part of it
(16:41):
has changed, and so you you get to get to
see them. And then they go to college and UH,
throwing it more than that they used to. And you
think we could kind of analyze these kids, and um,
I'm not sure I can answer you a question. I
do know this though, I know at the end of
the day, if a kid is got a good handle
(17:06):
on the game and the threebel approach the game, he's
smart enough to play the game, and he's accurate, then
you use it can play that. I think sometimes that's
what gets you. And and you know this to the jump,
the jump from college sometimes into pro fill fill somebody's
pockets up with money. That the change in their lifestyle,
(17:27):
the change in their routine of not going to all
those types of things. You know, it affects some some
kids they don't some of this don't don't handle and
adjust to it. So I guess there's different reasons. But
at the end of the day, I just I don't know.
I don't know how we miss because we should get
it right. We analyze them so much. Okay, So it
sounds like we've made this a whole lot tougher because
(17:49):
beyond the physical traits that we can identify in terms
of what it takes to play quarterback of the National
Football League, the deciding factor maybe the set of combination
of attributes, whether it be character, work, ethic, or intelligence,
which you are a whole lot harder to quantify as
(18:11):
being the major difference between a player making it or
not making it in the National Football League. Yeah, yeah,
I think you hit it right there. I think that
that character. I think sometimes it's really a surprise that, uh,
you get a young man who's put up some good
numbers and played in a winning program one games excelled.
(18:34):
But then they don't. They don't really work at watching
fam They really don't. Some of them don't know how
um you know, the uh, the off season they shut
it down for a couple of months and now I
know you need to kind of get away from it
a little bit. But still there are things you do
to try to uh, you know, keep keep your keep
(18:55):
your body going. And yeah that the commitments, if it's
usually the commitment, and and don't you think the transition sometimes,
you know, and I know it's tough on some kids.
You know, some kids grow up with with nothing and
all of a sudden, you know, you you get a
big bonus and uh and families can bleed you a
little bit, you know, and you you want to do
(19:17):
this and do that, and you're not really given the
same commitment, the same uh time to the game because
you've gotta get better, you know. It's it's not like
I've worked hard. I always want to play pro football.
Now I'm here, but that's that's the time to go
to work, because it's it's it's it's nothing easy about it.
(19:38):
It's nothing easy about going out there and trying to
uh re read these defenses and figure out where to
go with the football and avoid turnovers and keep boot
the chains and keep your team going down the field.
But also two words you brought up, I just think
are so important for the quarterback position, character and and
(19:58):
also leadership. It's it is definitely part of this is
part of a big part of the job. So Archie
Manning is this can't miss athlete with all the attributes
both mental and physical by all accounts by the scouts.
And he goes to what some NFL historians have called
the wrongest team in the NFL at the time, and
(20:20):
that's the New Orleans Saints. They really couldn't get out
of their own way. Uh they didn't draft well. Their
general manager at one point was a retired astronaut that
had no background in the National Football League at all.
They really just couldn't get it right. Now, Archie Manning's
too classy guy to blame it on that circumstance, but
(20:41):
it does beg the question. Let's say the year before
the New Orleans Saints take Terry Bradshaw leaving Archie Manning
to go to the Pittsburgh Steelers, uh and and the
ability to hand off to Frank o'haris and throw to
Lynn Swan and John Stalworth and you won her if
if in a revisionist history, that difference would have changed
(21:05):
the trajectory of these players, underlining that the nurture that
the system itself, yeah, is pretty important. Yeah, it's a factory.
It's a factory. And I'm not it's no sire grapes
with me. It just didn't you know, we weren't very good.
And you you know this, you've been you're in coaching
a long time. Bran constant, constant change does not get
(21:27):
it done. That didn't get it done. And so that's
you know, I went there in the fifth year of
that that franchise um they had already changed it, already
changed general managers twice they changed, just changed, just had
their second coach and just going into the fifth year
and then I was there. I got traded in my
(21:49):
twelfth year in Jawn and we went through seven more
coaches there. Uh during that time. I don't I don't
know if that's a record, but it's it's a pretty
good average. So and that's no excuse, you know, we
uh we just you constantly. If you're changing front office
and you're changing head coaches, well you you know you're
gonna be changing assistant coaches, but then you're changing a
(22:11):
lot of players. You know, you've got to have some continuity.
You've got to have stability. And they found it. You've
been around pro football a long time, the Saints. It
took the Saints a long time to get it, and
and it happened with a guy named Jim Finks, you know,
and it starts in that front office. And Jim Finks
came to New Orleans and he gave for the first time,
(22:31):
he gave that that franchise stability. Uh. He had a
good coach in jama and Jamma had a staff that
had come from the USFL. And they started started winning
and they probably they really could have won more. If
the forty Niners hadn't have been so dug gone good
during during that time, they probably would have one more,
but they had to play them plus a year. So
(22:54):
Archie Manning has has gone through this not only in
his professional career in terms of the import of marrying
the right athlete with the right skills with the right organization,
but interestingly with his son's Peyton Manning. Let's remember, uh
when he was drafted, and we've already talked a little
(23:15):
bit about Ryan Leaf was the other quarterback at the
time that everybody said, okay, these are the two best quarterbacks.
And and although very few people will admit it now,
there were some that thought Ryan Lead had a bigger
upside because some thought that Peyton Manning, because of his
background and growing up in the NFL, and because of
his dad and his pedigree, that he was maybe as
(23:35):
good as he was going to be. Where Ryan Leave
was a good, big, physical athlete, was at a program
that wasn't his story through the program on his back
had success, that maybe he had the bigger upside. So
you could make the case, well, had had Peyton gone
to San Diego and all the transition they were going
through and Ryan Leaf had gone to Indianapolis with Jim
(23:56):
Mora and the stability to that created, would there be
a different story out I inore anybody else think that
would have made a difference. Ryan Leaf had a number
of issues coming out of college, and I don't think
it would have been gone gone well either way. But
let's look at Eli and Philip Rivers. This is almost
like twins separated at birth. Let's remember that Eli was
(24:17):
drafted number one overall by San Diego, but made it
clear he wasn't going to go there, So the New
York Giants drafted Philip Rivers. They swapped, so Philip went
to San Diego and Eli went to New York. Well,
Philip Rivers, who's a possible Hall of Famer going forward, uh,
languished under four different head coaches, has had statistical success,
(24:39):
but hasn't had the team's success to validate how good
a quarterback he is compared to Eli, who went to
the New York Giants. Tom Coughlin, his coach for the
first eleven years, comes away with two Super Bowls and
two Super Bowl m vps. So this is a perfect
case in point in terms of the idea of Nate
(25:00):
versus Nurture. Well, Philip has Phillips had a great career
and he's outstanding quarterback. I really think he's gonna have
a really good year with with the coach this year.
But he's gone through a lot of changes. It's been,
you know, he's he's changed changed coaches, changed coordinators, changed
changed people. Um, he was you know, he was pretty
proud of his draft class. Uh he and Philip and
(25:22):
Ben Roethlisberger. Uh HELI was the first to go, but
he he as he says, he flewed him for sixteen
years and here's been and Philip still gone. So that
was a that was a good, good quarterback class. Nobody
nobody missed on on those three. But back to the
teams that Peyton and Eli played for. I feel like,
(25:43):
as their father, one of the great blessings I've had
is they played in good organizations. I mean, now, Indianapolis
had had their trouble through the years, but is you
know when the same year that Peyton got drafted there,
Polion went there. And again I talked about Jim Thinks's stability,
(26:04):
Bill Polian gave that organization the stability from the front office.
Jim more there's some good things, but it didn't quite
worrying anybody brought in Tony Dungee, you're really talking about
stabilities and and they So a lot of people don't
know this because the Patriots have been so outstanding one
so many Super Bowls, But during that decade there the
Colts that see won more games and the than the Patriots.
(26:27):
So what does this leave us on this journey of
trying to identify the Q factor the elements that it
takes to identify, procure and develop the talents of a
true NFL quarterback. Well, clearly there has to be the
physical skills, which of all of this is maybe the
easiest to quantify. You then have to develop a process
(26:49):
that identifies the mental character and work ethic of a
player coming into this league and the maturity to be
able to handle that transition. And then finally, you have
to look at the marriage between the player and the
system that he is going to and whether it's going
to facilitate his ability to optimize his abilities and be
(27:11):
worthy of that first pick. And that's what we'll do
over the next seven episodes of The QUE Factor and
examine it through the eyes of Hall of Fame coaches,
players and general managers to see if we can truly
come up with a better process, that is the Q Factor.
(27:34):
The Q Factor and The Q Factor Audiobook are available
online and wherever books are sold.
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