October 6, 2021 • 21 mins
One of the few Trump administration policies that President Joe Biden has kept in place is a tough approach toward China. For one, Trump's tariffs are still in place. But China's recent military demonstrations against Taiwan haven't helped ease tensions. What does the future hold for US-China relations? Yukon Huang, a senior fellow in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins us to share his insights.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:07):
From the recount on Marina nine and you're listening to
the recount Daily Pod today's Wednesday, October six, China. I
think the broad masses of the people actually support Presidents
Ugenping because they see a different China today and they're
asking for something to change. That was Yukon Huang, a
senior fellow in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment
(00:29):
for International Peace. Yukon shares his insights into the U. S.
China relationship. Will dig into that a little later on,
but first your morning headlines. We began in Washington, d C.
Where Facebook whistleblower Frances Hogan testified before Congress on Tuesday
about Facebook's harmful effects on children. Facebook's own research is
(00:50):
aware that children express feelings of loneliness and struggling with
these things because they can't even get support from their
own parents. I don't understand how book and know all
these things and not escalated to someone like Congress for
help and support in navigating these problems. Halgan went on
to blame founder Mark Zuckerberg, saying that by holding more
(01:11):
than half of all voting shares, he has unilateral control
over the company. She accused Zuckerberg of rejecting options to
tamper down harmful content on misinformation. She said that Facebook's
over reliance on AI to moderate content made it impossible
to stop the Subcommittee chairman Senator Richard Blumenthal implored Zuckerberg
(01:32):
to come to Congress and answer the accusations himself. Mark
Zuckerberg addressed the allegations late last night, saying that recent
coverage of Facebook quote doesn't reflect the company we know.
Next to COVID, Johnson and Johnson officially asked federal regulators
to authorize a booster shot for individuals eighteen and older.
(01:54):
The company set a booster shot, taking about two months
after the single dose vaccine significantly boost protection against moderate
to severe disease up to the company says studies show
that the Johnson and Johnson vaccine provides longer protection when
compared to fightser. Regulators could approve the booster as early
(02:14):
as this month. Astra Zeneca announced on Tuesday they asked
the Food and Drug Administration to grant emergency authorization for
long acting antibody treatment to prevent COVID nineteen and people
who are at high risk of the disease. If approved,
it would be the first emergency antibody treatment approved in
the country. It said the treatment reduced the risk of
symptomatic COVID nineteen by seventy seven percent. The treatment is
(02:38):
a therapy known as monoclonal antibodies, which introduced lab made
disease fighting proteins into patients, usually through an infusion. And Finally,
we end in Switzerland, where President Joe Biden is sending
White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to meet with
a senior foreign policy advisor for China. The visit is
(02:59):
a follow up to Biden's broad ranging discussion with Chinese
President shi Jing Ping in September. The U S and
China are still far apart on a number of issues,
trade and Taiwan among them. China has recently been flexing
its military muscle by flying sorties over Taiwan, a move
the US considers aggressive. President shi Jing Ping considers Taiwan
(03:19):
and renegade province and is vowed to reunify the island. Meanwhile,
the punitive tariffs that the Trump administration put in place
remain in effect. So where are U S. China relations headed?
We dig into that with Yukon Huang, a senior fellow
in the Asia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
That's in today's Daily Deep Dive. Yukon welcome, Thank you,
(03:43):
my pleasure, so grateful to have you on. You know,
you wrote this recent article for Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace and you call the U. S. China trade war
a cold war. What did you mean by that, Well,
I'm saying that we began with the trade war but
aventually evolved into a cold war. If you go back
several years when Trump came into power, he solved the
(04:07):
problem with China is really revolving around America's whose trade
deficits in the sense that America was importing much more
than was exporting and the major creditor who was generating
surpluses was China. So he solved the problem in the
United States as a trade deficit problem, and he saw
China as the villain. But the reality is that concept
(04:29):
doesn't make sense. First of all, trade deficits do not matter.
They don't really correlate with there are countries doing well
or doing badly. Actually, when Ecarmy does really well, American
household and consumers important more so, it actually has a
larger trade deficit. So trade deficit is not indicative of
the state of health of the American econmy The second
(04:50):
issue is that America has been running trade deficits every
year for forty years, and it's the only country that
can run trade deficits essentially forever. And the reason is
the dollars of global currency, so Americans can borrow from
abroad and others will accept the dollar, and that's not
true for other countries. So the real issue is that
trade is not a problem. The problem is now seeing
(05:13):
as a great power battle for technological supremacy. And there's
also a conflict between America's democratic system and the view
of China as an authoritarian regime. You know, you mentioned
the trade is not a problem. Here's one statistic that
stood out to me as we were researching this interview.
Foreign investment in flow into China grew four and a
half percent from two thousand nineteen did a record a
(05:36):
hundred and forty four billion dollars. There's little sign that
these US multinationals have embraced this idea of decoupling from China.
How does that exactly affect the US economy? Well, Trade
flows investment flows are essentially determined by business firms it's
very hard for current policies actually to affect that flow.
(05:59):
So despite the fact that the Trump administration and the
Biden administration have been discouraging US companies from investing in
China and trying to reduce the financial flows portfolio flows
from mutual funds into China, they in fact have surged
over the past several months. China became the largest recipient
(06:20):
a foreign direct investment last year. Why is that that
is because China still growing in six or seven percent
a year as markets expanding, its generating huge trade surpluses,
and one reason is that it took rather draconian measures
to restore stability in terms of production in China is
therefore capable responding to the global demand for more medical equipment, supplies, communications, iPhones,
(06:46):
automobile parts, and China surpluses have surged and as a
consequence of course, more money is flowing into China. US
tariffs on Chinese exports under President Trump's administration jump sixfold.
That was between two thousand eight and covered nearly two
thirds of Chinese exports. Many of those terrors are actually
(07:06):
still in place. What exactly was a Trump administration trying
to accomplish here? And were they successful well. Trump began
a trade war by living punitive tariffs on Chinese products.
Eventually most of Chinese products coming into the United States
are subject to a tariff, and the consept was that
this would make Chinese goods more expensive. As a consequence,
(07:29):
this would reduce America's trade deficit with China. But the
reality has been far different today three years later, the
trade deficit has only gotten larger. Imports from China actually
gotten bigger compared to what it was three years agoes,
so the tariffs didn't really work? Why didn't they work? Well?
In some sense, China still has remained the most efficient
(07:52):
producer of many of these consumer goods. The second issue,
many of the inputs that are needed for production here
in the United States eights, they're also produced in China.
So terrorists have created a problem because many American producers
have argued that the terrorists have backfired, made it more
costly for American firms to compete, and therefore American's ability
(08:13):
to export has been impeded. So most ecommists have concluded
the terrorists have actually been kind of productive, and the
business communities asking the Biden administration to reduce these terrorists,
but there's been so far no response in the administration.
If you were advising President Biden right now about the
relationship with China, what would you outline to him is
(08:35):
important to do in the coming months. Well, I would
basically say that your relationship with China depends upon economic
factors and how you view them, and of course they're
affected by political considerations. And the real problem of American
firms is they want better access. So the real economic
issue between America and China is opening up the Chinese
(08:55):
market so American businesses can actually invest, produce more, learn more.
But the concern here in the United States is the opposite.
American political system wants to decouple. It doesn't want American
confirms to be investing in producing China. So I think
there's a major disconnect between what I would call the
political sentiments about moving away from China and the business
(09:17):
community sees China as a great economic opportunity. But there's
a second concern. The second concern is, as Biden has
called it, competition between America's democratic system and its potential
ability to influence the global international order and seeing China
as an authoritarian regime and therefore a potential enemy, and
(09:39):
this is driving what I call the Cold War. The
question then is if you have what I call political
sentiments about fighting a Cold war, economic measures many can't
address that concern. You cannot change core values by sanctions
or terrorists. You basically have to figure out how do
I influence public opinion, how do I draw China into
(10:01):
better behaviors? And I think the best way actually to
influence China's behaviors in the international setting is through international
institutions and trade agreements, and therefore you try to get
them to shift more and more into what I call
kind of acceptable practices that we have in the West.
We'll be right back with Yukon Huang, Senior Fellow in
(10:24):
the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
You're listening to the Recount DAILI Pod. Welcome back to
the Recount Daily Pod podcast from the Recount and I
Heart Radio. I'm joined by Yukon Huang, Senior Fellow at
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. We're talking about US
China trade relations. What is it that you think President
(10:49):
She wants from the United States. President she sees China
as still developing country. Remember China's per capita income is
only about ten thousand dollars. America's per captive income is
sixty dollars. We are much richer, much more powerful, much
more advanced technically, much more advanced in terms of military capabilities.
(11:11):
What C is basically saying is he's looking forward fifty. Actually,
the deadline for the Chinese political system is the hundredth
anniversary of the formation of the People's Republic. And what
they see at that time is a vision of what
I call a more prosperous and technologically and innovative economy.
(11:34):
And when they describe more prosperous, they also have this
concept of shared prosperity. So that's the division of China.
Emerging technology has been a big bone of contention between
the West and China. How's that playing out well? Technology
knowledge sharing is a source of growth everywhere. It's a
social growth domestically in the United States, and it's a
(11:56):
source of growth of the world because knowledge is shared globally.
And if you go back a hundred years and you
realize the globally growth was cential zero and then over
the last three is forty years growth globally searched. Why
did that happen because knowledge became easier to transmit, both
within the country and across countries. So it's the flow
(12:18):
of knowledge that makes all of us better in terms
of higher incomes and more rapid growth to the e commies.
Whether it's in the West or it's in the developing world,
if you look at research and development, that's what drives growth.
What we have to actually do is try to make
sure that the benefits of why they shared that it
does not create what i'd call security concerns, and that's
(12:40):
the big issue. We do not have international agreements to
deal with security concerns. So Chris producing communication systems like
five Gen networks, and from our American perspective, there is
a concern that those networks could be used for security
spy purposes, and they are for decouplings being advocated. We
(13:02):
say the same thing about semiconductor chips. If we make
available high tech chips to China wealth, this increase their
military capacity, the ability to compete in terms of defense
or cybersecurity concerns. We need guidelines and regulations to address
this kind of a question. We don't have that right now.
Is there a pressure point that the US can wield
(13:25):
on China in this moment. The choice so far has
been either we separate and decouple, or we figure out
a way to collaborate with China to try to influence
in shape behaviors. And there are many critics who would
argue that trying to work and collaborate with China is
just not going to work. The system is too different,
the values are too different. China does need good relations
(13:47):
with the West. It cannot survive, it cannot grow without
those kinds of sound, sustainable trade investment links. And that
is an interesting issue because China is in a sense
hostage to a sound and rules based international system. And
the issue then is can the United States influence and
(14:08):
use that system to require to influence China's behavior in
areas where there's a concern here? And I think that's
the tricky issue. So does that mean we should work
with w t OF, the World Trade Organization, the International
Monetary Fund, the World Bank, you need o w HO
and in the process try to gauge or ask China
(14:30):
to change those kinds of behaviors which we find here
in the subjectionable. So that's the path. One path is
to decouple, separate. The other path is to strengthen international
understandings and rules and regulations so that there is what
I call more engagement between US and China, define a
middle ground, and that I think is the challenge. We're
(14:50):
gonna take a quick break. We'll be right back with
Yukon Huong, senior Fellow in the Asia Program at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. You're listening to the Recount
any Pod. Welcome back to the Recount daily pod podcast
from the Recount and I Heart Radio. I'm here with
Yukon Huong. He's a senior Fellow in the Asia Program
(15:10):
at the Carnegie Endowment for International Poinis and we're talking
about US China trade relations. You mentioned finding that middle ground.
China is an authoritarian state, it spies on its own citizens,
that technology is now ubiquitous. Can that middle ground be found?
This is an issue that cannot be resolved in the
(15:31):
next year or maybe in the next five ten years.
Is generational question. If you go back years and you
look at China, then compare China. Now, China's much more
on open system today than it was back then. It's
more open because of the engagement, the flow of ideas
that people that trade the context. We're going through a
(15:51):
very difficult period today because President j Ping has taken
what I call a more aggressive posture in the foreign
policy arena, and it's ten as it rattled up because
of Hong Kong, concerns about human rights violations in shin Jong.
Among the weakers, there's concerns about the future Taiwan. These
are creating stress points and there is a difficulty addressing
(16:13):
needs because they cannot be resolved very very quickly. The
question then is what about five, ten, fifteen years are
you going to be moving into an area where it's
gonna be easier or harder. My personal view is a
maturing China, where there's more contact and there's more availabilities,
there will be a better opportunities to move towards what
I call a middle ground where some of these concerns
(16:36):
can be addressed. China is not a small country. It
has a history of dealing with the West, which creates
a lot of animosities. This cannot be dealt with very
very simply the issues. Do you create frameworks for that
kind of discussion and movement or you basically separate the two.
My personal view is this can be resolved, but not
in the short term. It's gonna take ten years, maybe
(16:57):
a generation. I want to ask you the forre you
go as you step back, and from what I'm hearing
in this conversation, as you're saying decoupling could hurt the
US more than China. So if there was one thing
that the Biden administration could do over the course of
the next year, what is it. Well, from a Chinese perspective,
(17:20):
what they object to our policy measures which are directly
hitting China. Roiffs hit China, restricting US exports of high
tech products to China, sanctions against Chinese officials, trying to
retaliate by sanctioning US officials. So you get into this
titter at tat issue. But here's the major concern. If
(17:41):
we perceive of a human rights violation in terms of
Hong Kong, and therefore we close consulates or re sanction
Chinese officials because we object to it, that is seen
from our Beijing side is interference. Suppose the Chinese field
that America has not been dealing with for the racial
issues sensibly, and they see that as a human rights
violation in the United States. Suppose they then said I'm
(18:05):
going to sanction the US political leaders because of this,
we would find that kind of nonsensical because we would say,
what businesses of yours? The censor my lead political leadership
for policies that are seen as American issues. But that
is what we're doing with China. We see them dealing
with these issues in Hong Kong, machine John or Taiwan,
(18:28):
and we basically threw up punitive tariffs or restrictions, or
we censored Chinese officials because we think that behavior is inappropriate.
And that is the nature of what I call the
unequal relationship. That is what China objects to. The relationship
is not equal. So from a China view, when they're saying,
you are actually sort of like pursuing policies not on
(18:50):
an equal basis. And the answer is that twenty years ago,
thirty years ago, China was so insignificant in a global
sense that this is not an issue. But today that
feeling has changed. So this is why China. I think
the broad masses of the people actually support President Eugene
Ping because they see a different China today and they're
asking for something to change. When Jimping came into power
(19:15):
more than a decade ago, he basically proposed as what
he called a new type of great power relations The
official response from American perspective was, we did not accept
that there is a change in the power relationship. But
the reality is that there is a change, but we
(19:36):
have not formally recognized it. You can. I want to
thank you very much for your time. You're welcome. Thank
you very much, and now to look ahead. Here's what
else we're watching today. Texas Governor Greg Abbott, along with
eight other Republican governors, are holding a press conference this
afternoon along the Texas Mexico border to discuss what they
call a crisis. The governor's plan to announce a push
(20:00):
for a new state border security plan. Extended droughts in
the West are finally getting attention from lawmakers. In Washington,
d C. The Senate Water and Power Subcommittee will hold
a hearing this afternoon examining the status and management of
the water shortages. Game set match Today marks the beginning
(20:20):
of the Indian Wells Tennis Tournament in Indian Wells, California.
US Open champions Daniel Medvedev and Emma Radakanu are headlining
the tournament, taking place in the fall for the very
first time. One frequent competitor who will be missing this year,
Naomi Osaka. Osaka pulled out of the tournament in September
to concentrate on our mental health. Have a great day,
(20:41):
see you back tomorrow. This is a Recount Daily Pod
podcast from the Recount and my Heart Radio. Are thanks
to Yukon Huang, Senior Fellow in the Asia Program at
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, for being on the show.
And if you like this episode, who subscribe to The
Recount Daily Pod and do leave us a rating on
(21:03):
the Apple podcast app. I'm your host, Rena Night
From the recount on Marina nine and you're listening to
the recount Daily Pod today's Wednesday, October six, China. I
think the broad masses of the people actually support Presidents
Ugenping because they see a different China today and they're
asking for something to change. That was Yukon Huang, a
senior fellow in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment
(00:29):
for International Peace. Yukon shares his insights into the U. S.
China relationship. Will dig into that a little later on,
but first your morning headlines. We began in Washington, d C.
Where Facebook whistleblower Frances Hogan testified before Congress on Tuesday
about Facebook's harmful effects on children. Facebook's own research is
(00:50):
aware that children express feelings of loneliness and struggling with
these things because they can't even get support from their
own parents. I don't understand how book and know all
these things and not escalated to someone like Congress for
help and support in navigating these problems. Halgan went on
to blame founder Mark Zuckerberg, saying that by holding more
(01:11):
than half of all voting shares, he has unilateral control
over the company. She accused Zuckerberg of rejecting options to
tamper down harmful content on misinformation. She said that Facebook's
over reliance on AI to moderate content made it impossible
to stop the Subcommittee chairman Senator Richard Blumenthal implored Zuckerberg
(01:32):
to come to Congress and answer the accusations himself. Mark
Zuckerberg addressed the allegations late last night, saying that recent
coverage of Facebook quote doesn't reflect the company we know.
Next to COVID, Johnson and Johnson officially asked federal regulators
to authorize a booster shot for individuals eighteen and older.
(01:54):
The company set a booster shot, taking about two months
after the single dose vaccine significantly boost protection against moderate
to severe disease up to the company says studies show
that the Johnson and Johnson vaccine provides longer protection when
compared to fightser. Regulators could approve the booster as early
(02:14):
as this month. Astra Zeneca announced on Tuesday they asked
the Food and Drug Administration to grant emergency authorization for
long acting antibody treatment to prevent COVID nineteen and people
who are at high risk of the disease. If approved,
it would be the first emergency antibody treatment approved in
the country. It said the treatment reduced the risk of
symptomatic COVID nineteen by seventy seven percent. The treatment is
(02:38):
a therapy known as monoclonal antibodies, which introduced lab made
disease fighting proteins into patients, usually through an infusion. And Finally,
we end in Switzerland, where President Joe Biden is sending
White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to meet with
a senior foreign policy advisor for China. The visit is
(02:59):
a follow up to Biden's broad ranging discussion with Chinese
President shi Jing Ping in September. The U S and
China are still far apart on a number of issues,
trade and Taiwan among them. China has recently been flexing
its military muscle by flying sorties over Taiwan, a move
the US considers aggressive. President shi Jing Ping considers Taiwan
(03:19):
and renegade province and is vowed to reunify the island. Meanwhile,
the punitive tariffs that the Trump administration put in place
remain in effect. So where are U S. China relations headed?
We dig into that with Yukon Huang, a senior fellow
in the Asia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
That's in today's Daily Deep Dive. Yukon welcome, Thank you,
(03:43):
my pleasure, so grateful to have you on. You know,
you wrote this recent article for Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace and you call the U. S. China trade war
a cold war. What did you mean by that, Well,
I'm saying that we began with the trade war but
aventually evolved into a cold war. If you go back
several years when Trump came into power, he solved the
(04:07):
problem with China is really revolving around America's whose trade
deficits in the sense that America was importing much more
than was exporting and the major creditor who was generating
surpluses was China. So he solved the problem in the
United States as a trade deficit problem, and he saw
China as the villain. But the reality is that concept
(04:29):
doesn't make sense. First of all, trade deficits do not matter.
They don't really correlate with there are countries doing well
or doing badly. Actually, when Ecarmy does really well, American
household and consumers important more so, it actually has a
larger trade deficit. So trade deficit is not indicative of
the state of health of the American econmy The second
(04:50):
issue is that America has been running trade deficits every
year for forty years, and it's the only country that
can run trade deficits essentially forever. And the reason is
the dollars of global currency, so Americans can borrow from
abroad and others will accept the dollar, and that's not
true for other countries. So the real issue is that
trade is not a problem. The problem is now seeing
(05:13):
as a great power battle for technological supremacy. And there's
also a conflict between America's democratic system and the view
of China as an authoritarian regime. You know, you mentioned
the trade is not a problem. Here's one statistic that
stood out to me as we were researching this interview.
Foreign investment in flow into China grew four and a
half percent from two thousand nineteen did a record a
(05:36):
hundred and forty four billion dollars. There's little sign that
these US multinationals have embraced this idea of decoupling from China.
How does that exactly affect the US economy? Well, Trade
flows investment flows are essentially determined by business firms it's
very hard for current policies actually to affect that flow.
(05:59):
So despite the fact that the Trump administration and the
Biden administration have been discouraging US companies from investing in
China and trying to reduce the financial flows portfolio flows
from mutual funds into China, they in fact have surged
over the past several months. China became the largest recipient
(06:20):
a foreign direct investment last year. Why is that that
is because China still growing in six or seven percent
a year as markets expanding, its generating huge trade surpluses,
and one reason is that it took rather draconian measures
to restore stability in terms of production in China is
therefore capable responding to the global demand for more medical equipment, supplies, communications, iPhones,
(06:46):
automobile parts, and China surpluses have surged and as a
consequence of course, more money is flowing into China. US
tariffs on Chinese exports under President Trump's administration jump sixfold.
That was between two thousand eight and covered nearly two
thirds of Chinese exports. Many of those terrors are actually
(07:06):
still in place. What exactly was a Trump administration trying
to accomplish here? And were they successful well. Trump began
a trade war by living punitive tariffs on Chinese products.
Eventually most of Chinese products coming into the United States
are subject to a tariff, and the consept was that
this would make Chinese goods more expensive. As a consequence,
(07:29):
this would reduce America's trade deficit with China. But the
reality has been far different today three years later, the
trade deficit has only gotten larger. Imports from China actually
gotten bigger compared to what it was three years agoes,
so the tariffs didn't really work? Why didn't they work? Well?
In some sense, China still has remained the most efficient
(07:52):
producer of many of these consumer goods. The second issue,
many of the inputs that are needed for production here
in the United States eights, they're also produced in China.
So terrorists have created a problem because many American producers
have argued that the terrorists have backfired, made it more
costly for American firms to compete, and therefore American's ability
(08:13):
to export has been impeded. So most ecommists have concluded
the terrorists have actually been kind of productive, and the
business communities asking the Biden administration to reduce these terrorists,
but there's been so far no response in the administration.
If you were advising President Biden right now about the
relationship with China, what would you outline to him is
(08:35):
important to do in the coming months. Well, I would
basically say that your relationship with China depends upon economic
factors and how you view them, and of course they're
affected by political considerations. And the real problem of American
firms is they want better access. So the real economic
issue between America and China is opening up the Chinese
(08:55):
market so American businesses can actually invest, produce more, learn more.
But the concern here in the United States is the opposite.
American political system wants to decouple. It doesn't want American
confirms to be investing in producing China. So I think
there's a major disconnect between what I would call the
political sentiments about moving away from China and the business
(09:17):
community sees China as a great economic opportunity. But there's
a second concern. The second concern is, as Biden has
called it, competition between America's democratic system and its potential
ability to influence the global international order and seeing China
as an authoritarian regime and therefore a potential enemy, and
(09:39):
this is driving what I call the Cold War. The
question then is if you have what I call political
sentiments about fighting a Cold war, economic measures many can't
address that concern. You cannot change core values by sanctions
or terrorists. You basically have to figure out how do
I influence public opinion, how do I draw China into
(10:01):
better behaviors? And I think the best way actually to
influence China's behaviors in the international setting is through international
institutions and trade agreements, and therefore you try to get
them to shift more and more into what I call
kind of acceptable practices that we have in the West.
We'll be right back with Yukon Huang, Senior Fellow in
(10:24):
the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
You're listening to the Recount DAILI Pod. Welcome back to
the Recount Daily Pod podcast from the Recount and I
Heart Radio. I'm joined by Yukon Huang, Senior Fellow at
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. We're talking about US
China trade relations. What is it that you think President
(10:49):
She wants from the United States. President she sees China
as still developing country. Remember China's per capita income is
only about ten thousand dollars. America's per captive income is
sixty dollars. We are much richer, much more powerful, much
more advanced technically, much more advanced in terms of military capabilities.
(11:11):
What C is basically saying is he's looking forward fifty. Actually,
the deadline for the Chinese political system is the hundredth
anniversary of the formation of the People's Republic. And what
they see at that time is a vision of what
I call a more prosperous and technologically and innovative economy.
(11:34):
And when they describe more prosperous, they also have this
concept of shared prosperity. So that's the division of China.
Emerging technology has been a big bone of contention between
the West and China. How's that playing out well? Technology
knowledge sharing is a source of growth everywhere. It's a
social growth domestically in the United States, and it's a
(11:56):
source of growth of the world because knowledge is shared globally.
And if you go back a hundred years and you
realize the globally growth was cential zero and then over
the last three is forty years growth globally searched. Why
did that happen because knowledge became easier to transmit, both
within the country and across countries. So it's the flow
(12:18):
of knowledge that makes all of us better in terms
of higher incomes and more rapid growth to the e commies.
Whether it's in the West or it's in the developing world,
if you look at research and development, that's what drives growth.
What we have to actually do is try to make
sure that the benefits of why they shared that it
does not create what i'd call security concerns, and that's
(12:40):
the big issue. We do not have international agreements to
deal with security concerns. So Chris producing communication systems like
five Gen networks, and from our American perspective, there is
a concern that those networks could be used for security
spy purposes, and they are for decouplings being advocated. We
(13:02):
say the same thing about semiconductor chips. If we make
available high tech chips to China wealth, this increase their
military capacity, the ability to compete in terms of defense
or cybersecurity concerns. We need guidelines and regulations to address
this kind of a question. We don't have that right now.
Is there a pressure point that the US can wield
(13:25):
on China in this moment. The choice so far has
been either we separate and decouple, or we figure out
a way to collaborate with China to try to influence
in shape behaviors. And there are many critics who would
argue that trying to work and collaborate with China is
just not going to work. The system is too different,
the values are too different. China does need good relations
(13:47):
with the West. It cannot survive, it cannot grow without
those kinds of sound, sustainable trade investment links. And that
is an interesting issue because China is in a sense
hostage to a sound and rules based international system. And
the issue then is can the United States influence and
(14:08):
use that system to require to influence China's behavior in
areas where there's a concern here? And I think that's
the tricky issue. So does that mean we should work
with w t OF, the World Trade Organization, the International
Monetary Fund, the World Bank, you need o w HO
and in the process try to gauge or ask China
(14:30):
to change those kinds of behaviors which we find here
in the subjectionable. So that's the path. One path is
to decouple, separate. The other path is to strengthen international
understandings and rules and regulations so that there is what
I call more engagement between US and China, define a
middle ground, and that I think is the challenge. We're
(14:50):
gonna take a quick break. We'll be right back with
Yukon Huong, senior Fellow in the Asia Program at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. You're listening to the Recount
any Pod. Welcome back to the Recount daily pod podcast
from the Recount and I Heart Radio. I'm here with
Yukon Huong. He's a senior Fellow in the Asia Program
(15:10):
at the Carnegie Endowment for International Poinis and we're talking
about US China trade relations. You mentioned finding that middle ground.
China is an authoritarian state, it spies on its own citizens,
that technology is now ubiquitous. Can that middle ground be found?
This is an issue that cannot be resolved in the
(15:31):
next year or maybe in the next five ten years.
Is generational question. If you go back years and you
look at China, then compare China. Now, China's much more
on open system today than it was back then. It's
more open because of the engagement, the flow of ideas
that people that trade the context. We're going through a
(15:51):
very difficult period today because President j Ping has taken
what I call a more aggressive posture in the foreign
policy arena, and it's ten as it rattled up because
of Hong Kong, concerns about human rights violations in shin Jong.
Among the weakers, there's concerns about the future Taiwan. These
are creating stress points and there is a difficulty addressing
(16:13):
needs because they cannot be resolved very very quickly. The
question then is what about five, ten, fifteen years are
you going to be moving into an area where it's
gonna be easier or harder. My personal view is a
maturing China, where there's more contact and there's more availabilities,
there will be a better opportunities to move towards what
I call a middle ground where some of these concerns
(16:36):
can be addressed. China is not a small country. It
has a history of dealing with the West, which creates
a lot of animosities. This cannot be dealt with very
very simply the issues. Do you create frameworks for that
kind of discussion and movement or you basically separate the two.
My personal view is this can be resolved, but not
in the short term. It's gonna take ten years, maybe
(16:57):
a generation. I want to ask you the forre you
go as you step back, and from what I'm hearing
in this conversation, as you're saying decoupling could hurt the
US more than China. So if there was one thing
that the Biden administration could do over the course of
the next year, what is it. Well, from a Chinese perspective,
(17:20):
what they object to our policy measures which are directly
hitting China. Roiffs hit China, restricting US exports of high
tech products to China, sanctions against Chinese officials, trying to
retaliate by sanctioning US officials. So you get into this
titter at tat issue. But here's the major concern. If
(17:41):
we perceive of a human rights violation in terms of
Hong Kong, and therefore we close consulates or re sanction
Chinese officials because we object to it, that is seen
from our Beijing side is interference. Suppose the Chinese field
that America has not been dealing with for the racial
issues sensibly, and they see that as a human rights
violation in the United States. Suppose they then said I'm
(18:05):
going to sanction the US political leaders because of this,
we would find that kind of nonsensical because we would say,
what businesses of yours? The censor my lead political leadership
for policies that are seen as American issues. But that
is what we're doing with China. We see them dealing
with these issues in Hong Kong, machine John or Taiwan,
(18:28):
and we basically threw up punitive tariffs or restrictions, or
we censored Chinese officials because we think that behavior is inappropriate.
And that is the nature of what I call the
unequal relationship. That is what China objects to. The relationship
is not equal. So from a China view, when they're saying,
you are actually sort of like pursuing policies not on
(18:50):
an equal basis. And the answer is that twenty years ago,
thirty years ago, China was so insignificant in a global
sense that this is not an issue. But today that
feeling has changed. So this is why China. I think
the broad masses of the people actually support President Eugene
Ping because they see a different China today and they're
asking for something to change. When Jimping came into power
(19:15):
more than a decade ago, he basically proposed as what
he called a new type of great power relations The
official response from American perspective was, we did not accept
that there is a change in the power relationship. But
the reality is that there is a change, but we
(19:36):
have not formally recognized it. You can. I want to
thank you very much for your time. You're welcome. Thank
you very much, and now to look ahead. Here's what
else we're watching today. Texas Governor Greg Abbott, along with
eight other Republican governors, are holding a press conference this
afternoon along the Texas Mexico border to discuss what they
call a crisis. The governor's plan to announce a push
(20:00):
for a new state border security plan. Extended droughts in
the West are finally getting attention from lawmakers. In Washington,
d C. The Senate Water and Power Subcommittee will hold
a hearing this afternoon examining the status and management of
the water shortages. Game set match Today marks the beginning
(20:20):
of the Indian Wells Tennis Tournament in Indian Wells, California.
US Open champions Daniel Medvedev and Emma Radakanu are headlining
the tournament, taking place in the fall for the very
first time. One frequent competitor who will be missing this year,
Naomi Osaka. Osaka pulled out of the tournament in September
to concentrate on our mental health. Have a great day,
(20:41):
see you back tomorrow. This is a Recount Daily Pod
podcast from the Recount and my Heart Radio. Are thanks
to Yukon Huang, Senior Fellow in the Asia Program at
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, for being on the show.
And if you like this episode, who subscribe to The
Recount Daily Pod and do leave us a rating on
(21:03):
the Apple podcast app. I'm your host, Rena Night
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