Buying, Selling & Second Thoughts with Brett Ciancia of Pick Six Previews

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome to the solid verbal. I'll that for me. I'm
a man, I'm forty. I've heard so many players say, well,
I want to be happy.

Speaker 2 (00:10):
You want to be happy for a day?

Speaker 1 (00:12):
Edith State is that?

Speaker 3 (00:13):
Whoo?

Speaker 1 (00:14):
Whoam and Dan and Tie.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
Dan, rubertste welcome back. How does it feel to not
have to do a.

Speaker 1 (00:21):
Preview on the side side. I'm under the impression today
is our pet League Extensive twenty twenty five and future
Cast twenty twenty six league preview. And then you were like,
I have so many very specific Coalgate thoughts, and I
was like, TI, great, this is your forum. So I
don't feel great. I'm still hammering.

Speaker 4 (00:43):
Well, look, it's funny you mentioned the pat League. I
was putting together a PET League lightning round for Week
one last night. I started putting the Week one dot,
not Week zero, but the week one DOC. And there
are seven PAT League teams that are going to be
in action, some of them playing teams like Boston College
and Air Force and Bowling Green and NIU. So there's

(01:03):
gonna be some opportunity here for the PAT League to show.

Speaker 1 (01:06):
Out, and then we have what the Pat League. Ivy's
right that there's like that week two, Week three, some
week four, right, because they don't play huge schedules. It's
a smaller conference, I believe. So they have that annual
the matchup selection. That's great by me as well. I
can't wait. I am so excited for pat League football
tie who isn't?

Speaker 2 (01:26):
Who isn't? Well, welcome back in trust ever baller. I
am tyeez Dan. This is the solid verbal.

Speaker 4 (01:31):
Hit follow, hit, subscribe, if you do nothing else, if
you really like the show, leave a rating, leave a review.
All that stuff goes a long way towards helping people
find the show. This is like the prime time for
that right now, as we build to the season, people
are starting.

Speaker 2 (01:46):
To pop their heads up out of their little groundhog hole.

Speaker 1 (01:49):
That league to open up a show in mid August.

Speaker 2 (01:52):
Okay, yeah, realize this good reason is on the horizon.

Speaker 4 (01:56):
Here we are gonna get you, hopefully a little bit
more in tune for what's ahead. We've got Brett Ciancia
from Pick six previews, Who's Gonna Stop by? Brett is
down the road from me. I had him on one
of our Patreon shows a year ago. I'm glad we're
able to make this now more of a wider thing.
We're gonna have everybody listening to Brett. He does again.

(02:18):
Pick six Previews does an awesome job covering all of
the power for in his preview publication, which you can
go out and check out at pick sixpreviews dot Com.
Want to talk to him about some of the second
guessing maybe that has gone on since he put his
previews together. On our end, since we put our previews together,
I've got a handful of teams. Maybe I know better,

(02:40):
maybe I don't. Maybe I'm just a human like the
rest of us, and having some self doubt creep in
with some of the projections that I put out there.
But I want to see if Brett's in a similar spot,
maybe where he's wizened up a little bit here Over
the course of time.

Speaker 1 (02:55):
It's a fascinating time and people who do this preview
thing for a living, guys like Brett or Bill c
or you know, whoever's putting together all the different magazines.
It's it's a lot of juggling, and it's a lot
of not guessing, but diving into areas you didn't necessarily
have to do. Looking at a running back from New Mexico,

(03:17):
looking at a safety from UTEP trying to gauge how
to project forward what they've accomplished and what their potential
may be as their sophomores and juniors into now starting
for sc or Oklahoma State or something like that. And
so it's fascinating, but I really do appreciate the work
that these guys do. We all second guess our preview
picks and lack thereof, and you know, in you know,

(03:41):
I'm already having the conversations with Jody with an eye,
my beautiful bride of She's like, so are you watching
games that week zero? Like how many of those games
are like super important? And then like is there a
Friday night that we could potentially go out for a
date because and like so I'm looking through schedules to say, like, Okay,

(04:01):
here's how I can navigate my human life with my
college football.

Speaker 2 (04:04):
You can't do it on Friday of week one.

Speaker 4 (04:07):
It just forget it. Friday a week one is actually
pretty loaded. I was looking at this again yesterday. I
was just putting this together.

Speaker 2 (04:13):
Auburn at Baylor, Georgia Tech at Colorado.

Speaker 4 (04:16):
Those are two biggies at eight pm concurrently, and there
are some other ones that I think we will be
interested in. But those two in particular on Friday night,
and the same is true on Thursday. There are games
on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and of course Monday. The
first week, first full week of the college football season.
So get it in now, yeah, now, to get it
in like week two is a little bit more breathing.

Speaker 1 (04:37):
You didn't mean for that to be graphic, Tie, but
it could be to.

Speaker 2 (04:42):
Be go on your dates. Now get that in now, guys, fellas,
get it in.

Speaker 1 (04:47):
I did notice, by the way, flip side Jody with
and I did ask. She was like, is there a
particularly like great Friday to have people over to watch football?
Because she signed me up to host like school dads
for like dad events, because there's like these social events
to like watch football on like a fun Friday night.

(05:08):
So I looked at the Friday night schedule November fourteenth, Tie,
is I believe Louisville, Clemson and Oregon Minnesota Like it's
a high quality Friday night of football. So there is
that to look forward to as well well. As we
get a little bit closer to this. And for those
new listeners who aren't familiar with our deal, we will
keep you up to date on which windows are the

(05:30):
most important, how to build your schedules around this coming
college football fall when you need to get it in,
as ty Hildemrant, oh God likes to say, I love that.

Speaker 2 (05:42):
Time October dot com.

Speaker 1 (05:45):
Now you better not edit that out time. No, that'll stay.

Speaker 2 (05:48):
I'll keep that in.

Speaker 1 (05:49):
I'm just okay enough when to get it in by
Tiele brand Well on.

Speaker 4 (05:54):
That note, awkward transition. If you'd like to constant made
this podcast subscription pros pro over here yea, and support
what Dan and I do. We are an independent entity.
The best way that you can support what we do
is by going out to verballers dot com. Sign up

(06:15):
for a Patreon tier. You can get the episodes without
the ads, get the bonus episodes that we do. I'm
about to spin up Run the Board, which is our
week to week and season long pick them game where
we give out weekly prizes. That's available to the folks
that are on one of the certified or premium tiers.
So go check that out at verballers dot com. The
other thing that I would add then I'll shut up
and we'll get to our interview. If you do, go

(06:37):
to overballers dot com. I've got the link out there now.
I did it earlier than I expected. The preseason Verballer
Top twelve pole is now open for business. You don't
have to be on a paid tier for this. You
just if you sign up as a paid member or
as a free member. Just build an account, go to
verballers dot com. You will have access to that pole.

(06:58):
We just want to get as many people as we
can to vote in the thing. Like you see preseason
polls that are dropping left and right. Now we have
our own. It's only a top twelve, but blew it
out this year. You have one hundred and thirty six
teams to pick from. If we want to be complete,
you pick your favorite twelve, you rank them in order.
I'll put together the results of that poll on an
upcoming episode before we get to week zero. So go

(07:20):
and check that out again. It's v R B A
L L e r s dot com.

Speaker 1 (07:24):
Take the power back, get your vote in.

Speaker 4 (07:26):
Yeah, all right, Dan, As you know, as you say, often,
all the greats are from PA, are they not.

Speaker 1 (07:35):
It's true, it seems to be true.

Speaker 4 (07:37):
I'm the outlier, but yeah, joining us from the mean
streets of Chester County. About an hour or so south
of me. Very pleased to welcome Brett siancea back to
the solid veribals. Sir, welcome back.

Speaker 1 (07:49):
How are you.

Speaker 3 (07:51):
Hey, Tyan Dan? Thanks for having me on. Yeh, the
mean streets of Chester County.

Speaker 2 (07:54):
I like that.

Speaker 3 (07:55):
Moving over to Delaware County in a week so oh,
you know, staying in the area, but now a full
blown Delco guy. But yeah, thanks for having me on.
I can't wait to break down this season with you guys.
Congrats on all that you've built.

Speaker 1 (08:08):
You know.

Speaker 3 (08:08):
I like to reference you guys as the godfathers of
college football podcasting because you guys were first. But you know,
you're funny, you're insightful, you kept it going for over
a decade.

Speaker 2 (08:16):
So pleasure to be back on with you guys. Dan.

Speaker 4 (08:19):
We just bring them on for the Delco and the compliments.
The Delco and the compliments not only the first. As
the world eventually crumbles with the smoldering heat of the sun,
we will be the last ones still broadcasting questioning a
decision by Wazoo to go for it on fourth and
nine like that's you know, this is what we do.
Well before we dive in, Brett for people who maybe

(08:40):
aren't familiar with your work. Can you give us like
the thirty second elevator pitch on Pick six and what
you do what you have been doing since twenty twelve.

Speaker 2 (08:48):
Yeah, thanks well.

Speaker 3 (08:49):
I launched Pick six Previews in twenty twelve College Football
Preview Company, and then in twenty nineteen, I launched my
first hard copy magazine.

Speaker 2 (08:57):
So it's like the ones you see on newsstands.

Speaker 3 (08:59):
But they claim to face is that over the last
ten years, in the last five years, I've been great,
the most accurate predictor in the country.

Speaker 2 (09:05):
That's stats in dot com.

Speaker 3 (09:06):
They go in great all the publications based on conference predictions,
and I've got the title.

Speaker 2 (09:11):
I say, if they're keeping score, I want to win.

Speaker 3 (09:12):
So I got the ten year and the five year titles,
became a Heisman voter, All American voter, and yeah, just
really excited to break it down.

Speaker 2 (09:20):
It's a one man show.

Speaker 3 (09:21):
So I do all sixty eight teams, you know, my graphics,
my advanced stats, but then all the writing too, So
I try and strike a balance numbers in writing and
give you really a full narrative of each program. You know,
no acronyms, no abbreviations, no jargon. It's straightforward, it's digestible,
actionable advice for the season.

Speaker 4 (09:39):
I was going to ask if you've considered adding more acronyms.
We don't need to go there. Do they give you
a belt or anything to like commemorate the championship? I
would love Yeah, I would love some hardware. Nothing yet,
just a little black and white grid that shows the standings.

Speaker 3 (09:51):
It's really boring. It doesn't make for good tweets. But yeah,
i'd love a trophy or something to rep here.

Speaker 1 (09:57):
An actual crystal ball, I think is the yeah worthwhile
gift here?

Speaker 3 (10:01):
Yeah, okay, yeah, just resurrect the old BCS trophy, the
old trick football there.

Speaker 2 (10:05):
We could use that.

Speaker 3 (10:05):
I mean, it's the logo, it's the Pick six logo
namesake right there.

Speaker 1 (10:09):
That's true.

Speaker 4 (10:10):
If you had the opportunity to bring back the BCS Brett,
would you absolutely?

Speaker 2 (10:14):
I would, and I would tweak it a little bit.

Speaker 3 (10:16):
So here's the thing. I love the four team number.
I love the number of four teams. I think that's
perfect for college football. But maybe the selection processes what
people were hung up about. You know, with a committee
behind closed doors, it's secretive. All these guys are connected
to conferences and schools. So if you could pair maybe
some kind of objective BCS formula something like that with
a four team structure, that's my ideal. I've been fighting

(10:39):
for that for years. I was in the minority crowd.
Everyone wanted expansion. Now I think it's gone a bit
too far with the expansion and people are trying to
go back in time. It's not going back. I mean,
the TV money's out there, it's over. But I would
like to keep that a smaller cost season bracket and
make those Saturdays in the fall even more important like
they were when I got really into college football.

Speaker 2 (10:58):
Oh man, he's singing your language.

Speaker 1 (11:00):
I mean it's everything to I mean, I think I'm
a six guy just because I like having a little
bit of inclusion in you know, a Mountain West champion
or you know, the American Champion. I like that element
to it. And I don't know at this point, like
you can argue till you're blue in the face, but like, hey,
we've got four power conferences in this moment, we have

(11:21):
four Power conference champions, a G four to five team
and Notre Dame and or or somebody else getting that
at large. It's great by me. I don't know, Yeah,
it seems I would.

Speaker 2 (11:34):
Yeah, I would take that in the second.

Speaker 3 (11:35):
And it's funny when you see these coaches and media
days talking about expansion. I think Eli Drinkwitz was calling
for a thirty team bracket, and they say things like, oh,
we want to prove ourselves on the field, you know,
give us access to a championship on the field.

Speaker 2 (11:49):
My thing is that's called November. You know what I'm saying.
You already have that.

Speaker 3 (11:52):
The games are on campus like everyone loves and their
elimination games. So yeah, I think we already have a
playoff structure built into the sea and it's not as
black and white. And I know pro sports fans love
a very black and white structure of how to make
a playoff. But we've already had that built into the
regular season. So that's what drew me to college football
originally was really the chase of perfection. Maybe one loss

(12:13):
and you still make it if you're lucky. But this
like nine and three talk and eight and four, I
saw reference this year to make a playoff. I don't know,
it's going away from what we love about college football.

Speaker 4 (12:22):
Man, if we had a thirty team bracket, Dan, we
would need the divorce lawyer on speed dial. Absolutely, we
would if that came to fruition. Good hell, look all right,
let me bring it back here to the reason that
we brought you on, Brett. We've said this many times
over on this show. This is ultimately a show about honesty.
So as we've been recording our previews since what the

(12:45):
end of June, Dan, I mean, we've been doing this
forever now it feels that way, Brett. You've been doing
it for the better part of the year. I'm sure
there is like this very human emotion that creeps in
when you spend so much time forming opinions on this,
on anything, which is you start the second guess yourself.
So today is the moment for us to maybe call

(13:06):
out some of those things. Now that we've perhaps put
some distance between ourselves and the takes. Where has that
doubt crept in? Where have we started to have some
of those second thoughts? Why don't we start here, Brett?
Since you are the guest of honor, where have you
gotten the most pushback from readers of Pick six previews?

Speaker 3 (13:26):
Well, every year there's a couple of these teams that
come up and the fan bases get really upset at me.

Speaker 2 (13:30):
And the team this year is Illinois.

Speaker 3 (13:33):
Okay, oh, team that had a special season last year,
ten wins near Brett Bielima, I thought heck of a
coaching job by him, and they grinded out a lot
of close wins. One score wins over Nebraska over Rutgers
Northwestern was closed Purdue fifty to forty nine. They barely
survived that one. All to say, it was a great season,
but in my advanced numbers that doesn't project forward. They

(13:53):
were ranked thirty fifth of my Game Greater formula last year,
nowhere near a top ten. Not really the stat profile
you look for in a top ten teams. So you know,
I try and separate the two. You know, great season
last year, but forward looking to twenty twenty five, I
just don't see it. I know they return the bulk
of their roster, but I mean, I think that roster
has already hit it ceiling last year. So I came
in selling Illinois hard. I've got the ninth in the

(14:15):
Big Ten alone, thirty second nationally, and you saw the
coaches pull in the AP had them twelve. So of
course you're going to get pushback from people in Champagne.
Not many friends over there this year. That's one of them.

Speaker 1 (14:26):
They're not celebrating you at Papa Dell's.

Speaker 3 (14:29):
Okay nah, Yeah, that's probably the biggest pushback this year.
And other ones, smaller cases like SMU. I'm really selling
what else ye at Georgia maybe not picking them, but
we'll get into Georgia for the second guessing hunches part
of this. I'm starting to worry about that one. But yeah,
Illinois and South Carolina I'm fading too this year. You

(14:50):
know again special season last year. I love Leonora Sellers.
He's absolutely electric to watch. But when you look at
the recruiting profiles in this conference, I mean they're barely
keeping up with the Joneses, like eleventh within the conference
in recruiting, so everyone else gets stronger, they're kind of
staying the same. I think they take a step back
in the win column. So those are two that are
in the ap that I'm selling.

Speaker 1 (15:10):
What is game Grader? You don't need to tell me
the exact formula, but like, what does it look at
when you are evaluating a team's performances from last year?
And where can game grader say? You know what they
the record wasn't there, but the way they performed was
actually interesting projecting forward.

Speaker 3 (15:28):
Yeah, absolutely, Well, you know, I do all sixty eight
teams and that's across four conferences. So I needed a
way to numerically be able to grade these teams against
each other, you know, a middle tier acc versus a
big twelve that never play each other, no common opponents.
So I designed this formula and basically what it is.
It takes all the key stats of a game, you know,
the yardage margins, the per play, explosive plays, I mean,

(15:50):
a bunch of other proprietary stuff, gets it down to
one number, and then I adjusted for the opponent's strength too,
because you know, blowing out Rice is not the same
as blowing out Alabama. So all the key stats of
a game and then opponent adjusted to get to a
number basically a game grade. And then over the course
of twelve games, fifteen games, five seasons, I can start
to see a trend using the game Greater formula. So

(16:13):
it's become really effective at predicting games and also upcoming seasons.

Speaker 2 (16:17):
So that's really the key number. I have a couple
other advanced stats in the.

Speaker 3 (16:20):
Book that you can see and it's all visually appealing,
you know, it's not like it's not like Calculus.

Speaker 2 (16:24):
You can see it.

Speaker 3 (16:25):
It's color coded and make it very accessible. But that's
the gist of the game grader.

Speaker 4 (16:31):
So one of my big second guessing slash. I don't
know what I'm trying to say. I'm doubting myself on Miami. Okay,
so we did our acc preview. I guess back at
the early part of July, at the time that I
went through the canes, I came away feeling very pessimistic.

(16:54):
And then I looked around to see what everybody else
was saying, because at the point that Dan and I
were recording, nobody else had really put out preview content.
You know, I had them down as an eight and
four team. The comments that I have gotten have made
me feel pretty crazy about that. My reasoning for it
is that I look at the offense and I say
it has to look different because there's no cam Ward.

(17:16):
Carson Beck versus cam Ward, those are two very very
different players. They have a good line, which we know
that crystal Ball prefers. They're going to want to run it.
I just think the pace is going to be slower.
I see situations up and down this schedule where maybe
the offense gets stuck in the mud against a better
defensive front, they can't be as effective on the ground.

(17:37):
They are less proven out wide this season, and I
could see there being a little bit more resistance perhaps
than meets the eye. Now you can imagine what the
comments have been in response to that. Right, there is
a I think decent enough backfield. Granted maybe not as proven,
but certainly there are guys back there that I think

(17:58):
you can trust, especially behind a line life this the
guys that they do have out wide, It's not like
these are no name caliber receivers, and obviously Carson Beck
has played at a very high level. You compliment that
with the defense that I do believe will be improved,
I'm basically making a case against myself here. Okay, So
Miami is one of those teams, and especially as a

(18:18):
Notre Dame fan, Miami is one of those teams that
I have really grappled with since doing that preview, and
if anything, I think I am more inclined to give
them more benefit of the doubt than I did.

Speaker 2 (18:30):
You know a month ago, Dan, when we did these shows.

Speaker 3 (18:32):
Well, with Miami, I'm coming at it from the other angle. Actually,
I might have sold them too much at the beginning.
I had them really in a dead heat with Clemson.
I really consider Miami to win the whole conference outright,
And that's how high I was on them. I scaled
it back before I published. So we're kind of meeting
in the middle here. I was really high on Miami,
and I'm kind of selling them a little bit more.
Here's some questions that Miami has is you know, last

(18:55):
year we talked about how close they were to the playoff,
and they blew that big lead against Syracuse.

Speaker 2 (18:59):
They were up twenty one nine.

Speaker 3 (19:00):
Then they blew the game against Georgia Tech. But a
lot of people stop the discussion there. You got to
ticket further. They should have lost to Virginia Tech. There
was that questionable fifteen minute long review in that walk
off hail Mary pass that could have flipped col was
up thirty five to ten on him on a late
Friday night, and a lot of people went to bed
thinking that was a blowout loss, and Miami rallied miraculously

(19:21):
to come back. So while we can say that they
should have been in the playoff, you could also say
they could have or should have been eight and four
on the other side of the coins. So with that
starting point, Yeah, Carson Beck's a big question for me.
I was down in Tuscaloosa to see Georgia versus Alabama
last year and it was night and day. First half,
Carson Becky threw three picks. He was seeing ghosts. They

(19:42):
fell behind big time.

Speaker 2 (19:43):
Second half. It was like a Heisman candidate. So he's
hot and cold. And then the defense.

Speaker 3 (19:48):
Yeah, you're right that if they slow the pace down
on offense, that puts more of a burden on the defense.
They have to be sharper than last year. And you're
going with a coordinator change with Corey Heatherman coming in
from Minnesota. They hit the port really hard. You wonder
about those two variables, if that clicks or not. So yeah,
I mean, like I said, from the other direction, I
started really high on Miami and I'm fading it back

(20:09):
to kind of meet you in the middle here.

Speaker 4 (20:11):
Dan, do you have a team that or a couple
teams that you have looked at as you know, your
second guess in yourself. Now, in hindsight, it's not that
I'm second guessing per se. It's like I planted a
flag about Miszoo on our SEC preview, in large part
because of the schedule, in large part because they've been
quietly and consistently at least pretty good these past few years.

(20:32):
It seems they've lost some dumb games. There's just there's
so many transfers on this defense, even transfers who came
in last year and this year and are going to
be rotating in Couple that with bo Pribula, couple that
with an offense that took a step back in terms
of explosion last season.

Speaker 1 (20:50):
I understand. I can visualize why Miszoo would be very
good this year regardless of schedule. But SEC is just tough, man.
The SEC is just like an average SEC team is
still any given week going to be very tough. And
so Miszoo has the capability to win a bunch of games,
but they still have the capability of you know, looking

(21:10):
like what they did against Texas A and M last year.
And I know, obviously Brady Cook had injury issues last year,
but that's the big one. They feel like they could
swing anywhere between you know, seven and five, ten and two,
six and six, Like there's a lot of varied outcomes
to me on this missoo schedule. Does that make any sense? Brett?

Speaker 3 (21:29):
Yeah, And you know, talking about Illinois fans, Missouri fans
are all up in my comments too, because I did
not have them in the preseason top twenty five and
caught a lot of flak for that as well. I
agree with you with some of those concerns. I mean
the quarterback transition. Brady Cook, I mean he was a
Warrior last year. There was the game I think it
was Auburn one of those games. He was injured, went

(21:50):
to the hospital in the middle of the game, had
whatever procedure done, came back in the fourth quarter and
led the game winning drive.

Speaker 2 (21:55):
I mean, absolute warrior. So yeah, you switch over to both.

Speaker 3 (22:00):
Bulah, you got a little bit of play at Penn State,
but a three star recruit, it's unproven. And really what
made Missouri special the last couple of years was their
receiver corps, Luther Burden being the headliner. I mean, it
was five stars at a program that never really had
five stars. So you take away your quarterback and the
best position room, the receiver room, and it's a lot
of questions for me. So I've ended up fading Missouri too.

(22:22):
I had them twelfth in the SEC. You're right, it's
just such a competitive league. I mean, you know, who
are you going to put them above? In South Carolina
They're they're a legit top twenty five team, and Florida
and Oklahoma or Veteran and so it's just such a
deep league. I had to put somebody twelfth and put
Missouri down there.

Speaker 4 (22:38):
My theory on MISSOO this year, Brett, is because of,
as you elluded, the receiver room and some of the
changes there. Because of Perbulah's skill set, which you know,
I feel like I saw enough of to understand what
he's all about in his limited action at Penn State.
It feels like they need to bring this offense more
into balance, if nothing more, run the ball a lot

(23:00):
more than we saw last season. Does that seem like
attracks what you've been previewing for MISSOO this year.

Speaker 3 (23:05):
Well, think back two years ago. They had Cody Schrader.
This was a guy, a walk on Division two type guy,
a grinder, and he went for a ton of yards.
I think he got all first team All SEC. Last
year they didn't have that, so they were really the
pass heavy. The receiver room was the key feature.

Speaker 2 (23:20):
They might go back to that.

Speaker 3 (23:21):
Like you said, the run game, they brought in a guy,
a mad hardy from I think Louisiana. Monroe had a
ton of yards a lot after contact. He was getting
some ashton Gent comparisons.

Speaker 2 (23:30):
So love to hear that.

Speaker 3 (23:32):
If you're a Missouri fan, maybe get behind a big
offensive line and run the ball a bit more. So. Yeah,
that was one of the All Transfer You know, it's funny,
I have an All American team and All SEC team,
now an All transfer team because there's so much player.

Speaker 2 (23:45):
Move you have to you have no choice, right.

Speaker 3 (23:46):
Yeah, absolutely, he got the All Transfer spot in the
SEC running back, so they got a good one there.

Speaker 1 (23:52):
I'm curious because this isn't really a gambling angle, but
it just in terms of like who you should invest
interest in early on in the season. And I asked
this because one of my pet this. I guess it's
an acronym, right, but my QFB, my quest for boring
a lot of teams could simply be so much better

(24:12):
if they took care of boring things more often, right that,
like stay ahead of the sticks a little bit more often,
tackle a guy to make it fourth and two instead
of you know, fourth in inches, like they're just little things.
Who could who are your beneficiaries? When you look at
the teams that you've looked at this year across these

(24:32):
conferences that like, man, if they took care of such
boring things just a little bit more often, it seems
like it would make a world of difference.

Speaker 3 (24:41):
Yeah, I've got two for you. One from the SEC
would be Auburn. And this is a team that in
my advanced stats which look at you know, the offense
and defense, their performances top twenty both sides of the
ball last year on offense and defense. Okay, how'd they go?
Five and seven? You look at it. It was the
worst field goal kicking in the country deadline. I think
it was like under fifty percent make. It was unbelievable.

(25:03):
Leaving all those points on the field. And then five
turnovers in a couple games, five turnovers against Cal five
turnovers another loss they had. So when you look back
at it, five and seven, but probably four of those
could have flipped the wins conservatively for them, flipped the
wins if they would have taken care of the ball
a bit and then made some chip shot field goals.
That's it. That's all that had to change. So on

(25:25):
top of that, they had a great recruiting class, another
round of transfers. The receiver room is absolutely loaded. I
think that my number two receiver group outside of Columbus.
And then they bring in a five star Jackson Arnold,
who I know he struggled to Oklahoma. I think there
were other problems there last year on offense. So a
second year SEC starter there with Arnold. So yeah, Auburn,
I think it's going to take a lot of steps

(25:45):
forward if they could just kick some field goals and
not turn the ball over five times. Similar to Nebraska
from the Big Ten.

Speaker 2 (25:52):
This is a team.

Speaker 3 (25:52):
If you watch them, they're shooting themselves in the foot
every game, every year for like a decade. I mean
I put a stat out there in the book a
couple years go, the turnover margin the last five years,
the last ten years, even going back to like the
Frank Solich era, they're dead last in America.

Speaker 2 (26:07):
I don't know what the curse is out there.

Speaker 3 (26:10):
You know, maybe by winning that ninety seven national title,
they just they sold their soul to the devil or
something crazy. Because the turnover look is unbelievable. So you
wonder is this the year that they finally get it
back on their side. I don't know, but they've gone
under their win total for ten straight years from Vegas.
Something's got to click there. So if they can just
take care of the football and get some better special

(26:30):
teams play. You know, they had a negative yardage punt
a couple of years ago. It's the stuff that doesn't
happen to other programs. It's all in Nebraska special teams.

Speaker 2 (26:38):
And they clean that up. They should be eight and
four in that area.

Speaker 1 (26:42):
I'm curious as for your your game grader, who from
last season had a record that wasn't necessarily indicative of
quality and that you are using that to sort of,
you know, extrapolate and push forward. Like, guys, this team
was actually pretty good last year. They couldn't get it done.

(27:02):
Maybe they weren't boring enough and so in I guess
that's the Auburn case. But like this team, Yeah they
went four and eight, but like they go nine to three,
no problem this year. Do you have any candidates for that? Yeah?

Speaker 3 (27:14):
Well, on the negative side, I already hit on it
with Illinois. I think that was you know, ten and three.
That was not your typical ten win team if you
look at it statistically, the optimist angle, I would go
with USC, and I'm scared of saying this. I mean
talking about second guessing and hunching or hunches. I'm a
little worried about doing this. But USC they were seven
and five last year. I think all five are one

(27:34):
score losses. They were really close in a lot of games,
a lot of late leads in the fourth quarter that
were blown, and you wonder, I mean, you know that
projects four better. So in terms of game grader, they
were fifteenth in the country last year in game greater,
but seven and five overall, so something doesn't match up there.
I think they were better than the record showed. And
then when you project forward to twenty twenty five, again,

(27:55):
one of the biggest spenders in this nil market, you
know how expensive it is to go get these top trains.

Speaker 2 (28:00):
I think they were number one or number two in
the Big ten and spending for that. So they're pumping
the roster.

Speaker 3 (28:07):
Second year quarterback with Jade Mayava, second year coordinator on
defense with Danton Lynn. So I think they were better
than the record showed. I don't know who's going to
claim fourth place in this big ten. It's wide open.
I see a distinct three, but then I don't know
who to put it forth. I mean, I actually ended
up tying USC in Michigan. Both kind of have one
side of the ball figured out and they're working on
the other half. But I think USC is a candidate

(28:29):
for better than the record showed last year.

Speaker 2 (28:31):
Should improve.

Speaker 4 (28:32):
So I've got USC on my list. With respect to
second guessing. Second guessing YouTube commenters got after.

Speaker 1 (28:40):
You time, Well, they did, they did, they did.

Speaker 2 (28:43):
Listen, I'm a human. Two.

Speaker 4 (28:46):
I have to be real with the for baller hood.
I made a comment that I think this team is
worse this year, and I caught a lot of flak
for that. I think the defense will be better because
I believe in Dan Lynn. I think he's the real deal.
I believe in the receivers. I think they've got an
incredible tandem to wide receivers. I'm really not sure about
the rest of it.

Speaker 2 (29:04):
Brett.

Speaker 4 (29:05):
You know, and I take your point, and you probably
know better than I with respect to you know who
they're bringing in and how that fits in from a
personnel standpoint, given the packages they want to run and
the schemes that are at play and all that. But
I guess maybe what I am speaking more to is
some uncertainty around Mayava, who I think is a great

(29:25):
athlete and a lot of fun to watch, but has
to definitely sand over some of those rougher edges in
his game if they want to take that next step.
I am a little bit spooked by the fact that
they are reaching out to smaller schools to plug holes
maybe along the line, maybe in the backfield. That might
not be fair because as we talked about with Oregon,

(29:46):
they're all world left tackle. Literally a world is from Nevada, right,
So it's not fair maybe to look down on smaller
schools the way that I think I did when I
talked about USC, But that creeps me out a little bit.
USC be better than that, not having to go down
a level to bring guys up to plug those holes.

Speaker 2 (30:06):
Yeah, there's some valid critiques here.

Speaker 3 (30:08):
That's why again I was torn about who to even
put fourth place with my Ava. I don't know, is
he really a Lincoln Riley quarterback? Is he a five
star Blue Chipper? Is going to go in the first
round and push for a Heisman?

Speaker 2 (30:19):
I don't know. I think that's still an uncertainty, But
do they need that?

Speaker 4 (30:23):
I guess the counterpoint would be, we've seen that from
Lincoln Riley teams before and that's sort of his calling card.
But if there is enough talent out there, and if
the defense does take a step forward, do they need
Mayava to be a Heisman candidate?

Speaker 2 (30:36):
Well, okay, I think at receiver, I agree that they're stacked.

Speaker 3 (30:38):
I mean, they have a couple of Blue Chippers in there,
Makai Lemon, Jacobe Land. They actually stole Utah's number one
receiver after springball, you know, witting him, goes out, he
calls Zacharias Williams, he's our number one. We're going to
build the offense around him. Then he leaves the next
day for USC. So I think they're set at receiver.
But I'll agree with you there at running back and
offensive line. Running back gad to go to the juco level.

(30:59):
And then at the offensive line. Yeah, they got Syracuse's
center Reid, and then a couple other transfers that were
not former Blue Chippers. They were like two star, three
star guys from high school. So you wouldn't really expect
that from USC, you know. And I just want Lincoln
Riley to win enough this year to survive to be
able to then coach the twenty twenty six recruiting class
because I don't know if you saw, I know, really
early in that cycle, but number one in the country

(31:21):
recruiting ranking next year hopefully they hopefully they hold on
to that and finish in the top five and maybe
that could be a turning point for the whole program.

Speaker 2 (31:29):
But they got to do enough to get to that point.

Speaker 3 (31:31):
I don't think any USC fan would have signed up
for seven and five and losing in the Las Vegas
Bowl by year three, So they got to get it
turned around. And there's definitely some valid critiques there on
the offensive line running back.

Speaker 1 (31:41):
They did win the Vegas Bowl, to be clear, they
did come back and win that Vegas Bawl at the
w Yeah, yeah, they came back and beat A and M.
But yeah, point taken.

Speaker 4 (31:49):
The other team that I feel I might have been
too harshawn was Arizona. And this is not to say
that Arizona is going to make some dark horse run
at the Big twelve.

Speaker 2 (31:58):
I'm not saying.

Speaker 4 (31:59):
That, but I do think that there is at least
a little bit more structure now with how Brent Brennan
is running the system.

Speaker 2 (32:06):
Like.

Speaker 4 (32:06):
One thing that became apparent to me after doing our
preview was that Noah Fafida was kind of on his
own last year. They didn't have a dedicated quarterback coach.
This year, you know, regardless of how we feel about
Seth Daggy, there is definitely a little bit more attention
on Noah Fafeda, on trying to give him structure and
trying to move things forward. It sounds more broadly like

(32:27):
Brent Brennan tried to run Arizona the way he ran
San Jose State, and they're very different programs. So I
think I discounted maybe the structure that he's put in
place now, and I discounted the fact that there could
be some sort of second year coach boost that, you know,
maybe in the haze of the middle of the night
when I'm putting all the stuff together, I didn't quite
see for the Cats. Again, they're not going ten and two,

(32:49):
But I think I might have been a little too
low on them, given the fact that perhaps there has
been some change going on behind the scenes with Arizona.

Speaker 3 (32:57):
I've got them projected towards the bottom of a conference
but to your point, you know, all throughout my magazine,
my book, on the radio, I'm always talking about that
second year bonus. I mean I brought up with USC coordinator,
bonus quarterback, bonus head coach. So I did also overlook
that with Arizona. I really gave them no benefit of
the doubt. They're having a second year bonus with Brent Brennan.
Who knows, maybe they do get some you know, catch

(33:18):
some fire. The pessimist angle would be they keep losing
their best players to the portal, a lot of them
going north to Seattle to follow their old coach, Jed Fish.
He took a good round of them the first time
in twenty twenty four, and then another round this year.
I mean Jonah Coleman, they're running back, Jacob Manu, they're
all conference linebacker both, they're all conference corners with Price
Sock and Tacario Davis. It just seems like a one

(33:40):
way portal from Tucson up to Seattle.

Speaker 2 (33:43):
So that worries me.

Speaker 3 (33:45):
And I don't think they backfilled enough, you know, all right,
so you lose your starters and your stars to Seattle.
In Washington, did they bring anybody in?

Speaker 2 (33:51):
And that's where I'm starting to worry with Arizona.

Speaker 3 (33:53):
So yeah, again, I don't see them competing for a
Bowl or anything, but maybe they do get a bonus
their second year.

Speaker 4 (34:00):
Do you have any teams that you're second guessing now
that you've put the publication out.

Speaker 3 (34:05):
Well, at the top of the SEC, I know that,
you know. I like to dig into the random teams too,
but I mean sometimes the teams at.

Speaker 2 (34:10):
The top you got to cover.

Speaker 3 (34:11):
And with Texas, Bama, Georgia, this trio, I really like Alabama.
I have them playing in Atlanta in the SEC title game.
I like what they brought back. I like their coordinator,
change everything. So Bama I'm set on. It's this Texas
Georgia debate that I'm kind of flipping on. All of
a sudden, I put Texas to win the conference. I
had them above Georgia and I penciled them in up there,

(34:32):
and now I'm starting to wonder, did we overseell Georgia.
I mean, this is a team that's been kind of
a mini dynasty recently. But what caught my eye was
I was building out what I call my advanced rosters. Basically,
it's a too deep where I color code a all
where they a four star, a five star if they
were a transfer where they come from where they all conference. Anyway,
like a visual too deep. And I'm going through Georgia

(34:53):
and there's eleven five stars on the defense alone.

Speaker 2 (34:56):
I mean, that's unbelievable.

Speaker 3 (34:57):
I don't even think there's eleven five stars in the
whole AC year, the Big twelve combined. It's like the
talent that has stockpiled at Georgia, especially on their defense.
I think I might have overlooked right in the preview magazine.
So I do have them fifth nationally, but maybe they
should be one of those teams playing in Atlanta because
Texas has their concerns too. You know, I penciled in
Texas to win it. A lot of people did, and

(35:18):
maybe without really thinking too deeply on it. They lose
four offensive line starters, they lose five NFL draft picks
off the defense, they lose a Thorpe winner, which JEDB.

Speaker 2 (35:27):
Barron.

Speaker 3 (35:29):
They're resetting in a lot of spots, So maybe we
were too quick to just put Texas there at the
top team that lost to Georgia twice last year, by
the way, So that's one I'm starting to regret, and
I have to see in all those blue chips on
paper starting to worry about Georgia.

Speaker 1 (35:42):
When you look around the sport right now. Actually, let's
I want to drill down to the Big Twelve. The
Big Twelve had a champion who was picked to finish
in last place last season. You mentioned the rosters that
have four stars and five stars or all conference transfers.
The Big Twelve doesn't recruit in the way that the
SEC and Big Ten do. It's incredibly entertaining, it's high

(36:04):
quality football. How do you sort out a conference that
each team has very specific flaws, nobody truly separates themselves,
or no three teams truly separate themselves from a recruiting standpoint?
How do you evaluate a conference like that and sort
out teams addor near the top.

Speaker 3 (36:24):
Yeah, well, it's my fourteenth year doing Pick six previews.
I think this is the most wide open conference of
them all over fourteen years, and it's just it's crazy.
So the coaches did a poll at Media Days and
they picked Kansas State versus Iowa State as their championship game.
And I looked and I have them sixth and seventh
in the Big Twelve. So out both of the outside
my top five. That's how wide open it is. You

(36:44):
could argue seven or eight teams to win this thing,
and they each have the little thirty second elevator pitch,
like you said, pros and cons for both. With Arizona State,
that's where I ultimately went with. And you know it
might be some chalk, but you look it back at
last year advanced stats wise, they were. They were a
real conference champion. They bring back twenty starters. I know
they lose Camp Scataboo, the do it all running back,

(37:06):
but really everybody's back. You got a first round draft
grade at quarterback a lot to like from Arizona State.

Speaker 2 (37:12):
So that was my pick. But then from there, I mean,
Texas Tech is a mystery.

Speaker 3 (37:16):
They bring in all this this oil money funding and
they signed the top transfer class in the country, twelve
Blue Chippers a Texas Tech they sign.

Speaker 2 (37:23):
That's more than the rest of the conference combined.

Speaker 3 (37:26):
So that's your talent. Play Kennet Jel, Kennet Jell quick enough,
that's the deal. But I had that have them strong
enough to play Arizona State in the conference title game,
and then real quickly, I mean Baylor, you could argue them.
They they call fire over the second half of the year,
won seven straight. They bring back pretty much the whole roster.
Ken Dave Randa works some magic on defense he has
in the past. That's his forte Utah, you know they're

(37:49):
reloading on offense, bringing in a whole new scheme. Devin
dan Pire electric to watch. He's very elusive in the pocket.
Should get some stable quarterback play that's been missing due
to injury at Utah for so long. So those are
my top four. TCU is a wildcard. I like Kansas
State and Iowa State as well. But again, you could
pick one out of eight teams to win this thing,

(38:10):
and it's fascinating. So you don't have a top ten team,
a lot of top forty, a lot of top twenty
five caliber, so it makes for great football.

Speaker 2 (38:18):
I love watching this conference.

Speaker 4 (38:19):
To what end do you take talent into account when
you're putting together projection projections, putting together previews, because you
know it certainly has a place. Not everybody hits, I know,
but latter friend Bud has the blue Chip ratio, which
has been sort of like a staple metric in college
football circles for a good while. Now, but like, how

(38:40):
do you incorporate that into whatever calculations you are running
on your end.

Speaker 3 (38:46):
Yeah, well, it's important, It's very important. I would say
recruiting and talent acquisition. That's really the backbone of a program.
And if you want to win national titles or win conferences,
you have to have great recruiting. That's the starting point,
or nowadays great transfer activity. Look at old Men, look
at Texas Tech, that kind of thing. So it's definitely
a starting point. But I don't end there. I think
a lot of a lot of people like to put

(39:07):
way too much emphasis on just the recruiting. I think
you need to have schemes that work, You need to
have stability with the coaching staff. Nowadays it's roster retention,
not just recruiting, but can you keep the recruits on campus.
Talk to head coaches, talk to coordinators about recruiting and transfers,
and they start out with the day after the season.
They're recruiting their own players. They're recruiting their own starters,

(39:28):
re recruiting them to stay on campus. So the retention
game has become a new facet of college football.

Speaker 2 (39:35):
So I think recruiting is important.

Speaker 3 (39:36):
It's the starting point, but then schemes that work retention,
and then you got to got to go player develop
and all that. So I'd say it's crucial, but not
the only piece, and it definitely factors in, but there's
a lot more to it.

Speaker 2 (39:49):
Do you like have to redo your preview eight times?
Like when do you start this?

Speaker 4 (39:54):
And I mean seriously, because we have so much activity
that goes on even in the spring window. I mean,
I don't need to know the whole process, but how
often are you redoing some of these team previews because
of late action in the portal or just otherwise?

Speaker 2 (40:10):
College football is so fluid. I'm calling it the retslof test.

Speaker 3 (40:15):
And it was whether your magazine and preview was able
to get that in there, and mine, I think was
the only one to have it in of course, with
the BYU starting quarterback Jake Rhetslof leaving campus mid July,
all the magazines had already been printed and they got them,
you know, on the all Big twelve team and got
BYU in the top ten. And I end up catching
that the day before I published the twenty twenty five editions, so.

Speaker 2 (40:36):
I have him out of there.

Speaker 3 (40:37):
I have bear Bachmeyer the New four Star as their
starting quarterback, and so that was a you know, I'm
later in the game than others, but that's it's a
pro and acon I mean, I use it to my
advantage to try and be up to date. But it's
such a long process. I think back to when I
launched US in twenty twelve. It was very simple. In
twenty twelve. Think back, you had a BCS, you had
something called the Big East. It was a simpler time,

(40:59):
and what you would do you would just have your
recruiting rankings, your returning starters, and that's it. Maybe a
couple guys that went pro early, but that was pretty
much the formula nowadays. To answer your question, I mean,
it's kind of a writing in March, a rewriting in April,
and then a final writing in July. There are the
transfer portal windows in December and April the post spring window.

(41:19):
But there are times where I have to throw out
the entire draft. I mean, I think about Colorado a
couple of years back. I wrote their team three of
you up. I thought it was great in April, and
then again I had to just throw the whole thing
in the trash and just start over because like seventy
players transferred out, So it's way more at its it's
complicated if by you know, tenfold, but I do think

(41:40):
you know to spend.

Speaker 2 (41:41):
I think it makes for a better product.

Speaker 3 (41:42):
I think it makes for a more valuable resource to
the reader because it's hard to follow not only your
own team, but your opponent's teams, your teams and your conference.
So once August hits, people were like, you know, who's
even on my roster? Who are these players? So with
the preview magazine here you can go through it. It's
very readable. You can see who left, who's coming in,
which ones matter? You know, you can just say that
they have ten transfers, are they good players, how they

(42:04):
do with their last school, how are they greated as transfers.
So it's complicated things a lot, but I think that
makes for a more valuable product here.

Speaker 4 (42:12):
So with respect to the game grader that I know
Dan asked about, and you've mentioned a couple times over here,
you said that it has predictive qualities, what are those
qualities with respect to Week one in twenty twenty five.
Because it's a loaded slate, there are a bunch of
ranked matchups. I think the headliners. The obvious headliner at
least on the first Saturday is Texas at Ohio State.

(42:35):
But we got a bunch of these games now. So
as you are looking forward, because I know you do
work in season as well, what are your numbers saying
about what this slate looks like in Week one?

Speaker 2 (42:47):
Where is your eye drawn? Yeah?

Speaker 3 (42:49):
Well even with Week zero, I like that Farmer Gedden
game that Kansas State Iowa State. I like Kansas State
minus two and a half there or minus three wherever
you get at a field goal spread neutral sites, so
throw the home field advantage out. But I think Kansas
State's a more proven product this year. I know Iowa
State was picked by many, picked by the coaches in
the conference to win it. I just don't see if
Iowa State they lose a lot from that defense. They're

(43:12):
a team that win, they're veteran, they're very strong, but
I think they're kind of going through a little bit
of a transition. The receivers are gone, a couple of
pieces from the offensive line, a lot of the defense gone.
So I like Kansas State there in the Week zero
kickoff game. Some other ones from Week one, Nebraska minus
six and a half, against Cincinnati. I think Nebraska took
a lot of steps forward here on their offensive line

(43:33):
and their receivers from the transfer portal, trying to give
their five star Dylan Royola more people around him. I
think last year it was a pretty broken offense. I
know he flashed at times, but again, an eighteen year
old true freshman, I think in his second season, with
proven offensive line starters, with proven number one receivers, I
think you're going to see a better Nebraska here in
rules third year. So I like Nebraska to cover that

(43:54):
touchdown one more. I'll give you a here Utah Ucla.
I saw that spread came in in a touchdown. I
think Utah is going to destroy Ucla. I mean they're
the more physical team. Ucla is a team that we
talked about with Arizona, how their starters are getting poached
by other programs. Same with UCLA. And I know they
have the headliner with Nico that kind of is the

(44:14):
exception to the rule, but otherwise this roster was carved up.
So I see Utah going in there and smacking them.
So I'll go with Utah minus a touchdown there in
the opener, but yeah, plenty of plenty of angles, and
that's the beauty of I'm starting pick six.

Speaker 2 (44:27):
Plus this year. Yeah, yeah, I was gonna ask you
about the season feature.

Speaker 3 (44:30):
Yeah, so all the information from the magazine, but updated weekly,
all my game greater, all my advanced stats, even a
little bit more of that against the spread trend a.

Speaker 2 (44:39):
Little, you know, leaning into that angle a little.

Speaker 3 (44:40):
Bit more for those kind of listeners and readers. So
all that situational splits you look for is in there,
pixel cool.

Speaker 4 (44:47):
I wanted to ask you real quick about Texas Ohio State,
because I know Dan and I have had a little
bit of back and forth over this one. I made
a comment somewhere along the way, and I forget where
exactly that I think Texas is the I think Texas
has definitely beating Ohio State. Of course, you talking definitely's
when you're speaking in July, and a lot is subject

(45:08):
to change, including some of this self doubt that inevitably
is going to creep in.

Speaker 2 (45:11):
But I still believe that.

Speaker 4 (45:12):
I still think because Ohio State is so much new,
they're obviously still going to be loaded look at the roster,
but I think given enough back on the Texas side,
they are probably eager to get this rematch with Ohio State,
maybe get a little bit better in some of those
short yardist situations that I know you alluded to Brett
in your preview magazine with arch Manning and some of

(45:33):
his mobility. Do you have a lean in that game?

Speaker 3 (45:37):
Well, yeah, I mean I have Texas number two in
the country. I have Ohio State number three, and they're
pretty much even with the game being in Columbus, I'm
going to go with a higher state here. Play game
really tough to forecast too, because, like you said, so
much turnover on both rosters. I put Texas early in
our show on my category of second guessing and worrying
about just because all the roster transition they had, I know,

(45:58):
we talk about that with Ohio State. Eight they sent
to a record number of NFL draft picks away from Columbus,
I think fourteen of them. But so they have questions too.
But then yeah, Texas, same deal. So I'm gonna lean
with Ohio State. And here's why I like their offensive
line against Texas's d line and the deal with Ohio State.
It was such a long season along playoff run. They

(46:18):
had a lot of injuries on their offensive line, which
you know, hurt at the moment, but now you've got
a lot of younger guys ahead of schedule with reps
and starts and experience.

Speaker 2 (46:27):
So actually their offensive line is pretty proven. I like
what they have there.

Speaker 3 (46:30):
They're going up against a Texas front that loses several
starters and had the backfill from the portal a lot.
I think three out of four starters are portal guys.
A lot of the two deep is now from the portal.

Speaker 2 (46:40):
And that can hit.

Speaker 3 (46:41):
That could be great. But in week one, I think
you're going to catch them. So arch Manning's first big
start on the road a hostel.

Speaker 2 (46:47):
You know it's gonna be at noon.

Speaker 3 (46:48):
I was going to say primetime it it should be
play unbelievable Number one versus number three is going to
be at noon.

Speaker 2 (46:54):
But that's our era now with big, big TV money.
But no, I like Ohio State here.

Speaker 3 (46:59):
I think they're, if it's possible to say, the more
proven products still despite losing fourteen drafted.

Speaker 4 (47:04):
Wow, okay, we got another one dan another guys. Yeah
State yeuh okay.

Speaker 1 (47:08):
So you talk about Texas and Ohio State both you know,
filling holes with transfers and working out for both of
these teams obviously swimming league for Ohio State last year,
you have new coaches. You have recent new coaches not
plugging holes but building entire rosters, bringing in fifteen basketball
teams worth of guys. Right that there's forty seven new guys,

(47:30):
fifty three new guys, sixty one new guys. On one level,
how do you evaluate how that team is going to be?
Are you putting just everything on coaching history and schedule,
not knowing how anybody's going to gel and how anybody
fits into whatever system? Or do you just throw your
hands up and say, like, we'll talk about it October eleventh.

Speaker 2 (47:54):
A little bit of both.

Speaker 3 (47:55):
I'd say, I mean two examples that come to mind.
You got Purdue going through a massive roster and over
coaching change after their terrible season last year, the worst
team in the country per my numbers last year.

Speaker 2 (48:06):
I mean, you look at it.

Speaker 3 (48:07):
The transfer portal was what twenty produced starters out of
there going to different schools.

Speaker 2 (48:11):
So total rebuild.

Speaker 3 (48:13):
I think in these situations what you try and do
is you got to go position by position, got to
dig in. There's no easy way out of this discussion.
So I looked at every transfer coming in where'd they
come from? Where they all conference guys at the lower
tier where they former blue chip recruits. Just go room
by room and then also look at the coaching and
their history. So with Purdue with Barry otom he's actually

(48:34):
gone through a similar scenario At UNLV two years ago.
He took over UNLV, they were terrible. He went through
a massive roster overhaul and got them to the Mountain
West title game twice in a row. So a guy
that's done it before, albeit at the Mountain West and
not the Big Ten. But you want somebody that's gone
through such a transition. So maybe tough in twenty twenty five,
but could be the right guy.

Speaker 2 (48:54):
Going forward, intermediate, long term.

Speaker 3 (48:56):
The other one, and I'm actually proud of us that
we went forty minutes without talking about it. The UNC
hire of Bill Bilichick and one of the storylines of
twenty twenty five. I heard they're gonna be bringing the
entire ESPN campus down a Chapel Hill. They're gonna just
set up shot there for the next three months. But no,
I think a similar deal. They're bringing in like sixty
five new players, And again I had to just dig

(49:18):
in position by position and I think they're They're proven
at some spots, you know, and in their secondary they
have several guys that were former starters at you know,
the power for or.

Speaker 2 (49:27):
The Group of five level.

Speaker 3 (49:29):
At quarterback, they're trying to get their quarterback injury back
from injury with Johnson, but they signed Gio Lopez, an
All Sun Belt guy, a true freshman player from South Alabama,
dual threat kid. So long story short, I mean it's
a little bit uncertain with the UNC you gotta trust
their coaching and in the ACC you're gonna have a
lot of one score games, and who better to trust

(49:49):
than a Bilichick off or Bilichick team. You feel like
the the keys of the game, they're going to be
good at, you know, the situational staff, procedure, penalties, like
they're going to be clean. I think so that might
flip a cup of one score games their way. But
it's a total crapshit with some of these rosters.

Speaker 1 (50:05):
Fair enough, one of the more fascinating teams. And I
am a biased Oregon human here, but the Oregon Ducks
win the Big Ten. They go thirteen and oh last
season they're in the regular season. We've talked about the
SEC champ in Georgia. We've talked about the Big twelve
champ in Arizona State. Oregon seems to be on like
three clear paths and we kind of have to decide
how we feel about each one. One is that we're

(50:27):
maybe under selling how good they were last year and
how many quality pieces are back, and they're perhaps not
getting the attention that Ohio State and Penn State are.
Having beaten both of those teams during the regular season
last year, we don't need to talk about the Rose Bowl.
That's a conversation that nobody wants to have, nobody needs
to reflect on. Two is that they're properly seen as

(50:48):
a competitive team near the top, but had to replace
an offensive line, a quarterback, key pieces in the secondary
and defensive line, and that's a lot or three that
they're due for a down year and there's a reckoning
coming because there are too many questions and so you
obviously have them pretty high in your Big ten tier.

(51:11):
Where do you think, with the benefit of now a
little bit more time and you know, hearing stories about camp, like,
where do you stand same place? How do you feel
about those three paths?

Speaker 3 (51:22):
I might have to give you a fourth I was
on the radio up in Portland and they were asking
me about Oregon, and I told them, Hey, Oregon's might
pick to win the national championship. And I paused way
too long, and I go in twenty twenty six, I
think that, and I put that in the book too
as my preview for next year. But I think they're
building an absolute machine in Eugene. I mean, it's unbelievable, undeniable,

(51:42):
the amount of talent that they're stockpiling. Dan Lanning has
really elevated this recruiting thing to a new level. I
look at it this way. You know, twenty four to
seven sports and on three. It's a lot of quantity
for their recruiting rankings. But if you look at it
at per player, if you just do the sheer average,
Organ was number one in the country the high school
ranks last year, and the number one in the country

(52:02):
from the transfer portal last year per player. So it's
undeniable what's going on up there.

Speaker 2 (52:07):
But here's the thing.

Speaker 3 (52:08):
They're very young, so it's all about what playoff structure
we're in. I think last year leaves a confusing legacy.
You know, thirteen to zero, number one, the clear only
undefeated team in one hundred and thirty years of college football.
That team's either playing in a Rose Bowl for a
national title, or they're in the BCS title game, and
that could have been their first title in school history. Instead,
they're thrown back into this big bracket and they run

(52:28):
into a machine a rematch Ohio State spot.

Speaker 2 (52:31):
So I say that not.

Speaker 3 (52:32):
To bring up bad memories for you, but fine, I
say that because now it flips to an advantage for Oregon,
because in the old structure, I don't.

Speaker 2 (52:39):
See this team going undefeated.

Speaker 3 (52:40):
I don't see twenty twenty five Oregon going twelve to
zero and making a one versus two BCS title game.
I do see maybe a ten to two, a very
younger team that is growing up. They probably lose that
white out spot, maybe drop another one as a young team.
But by the time December rolls around, in January rolls around,
now they're not a young team anymore. They're now a
veteran team stockpiled with five star recruits that could be

(53:02):
rounding into form in a big bracket. So it's a
confusing legacy they lead behind and enter twenty twenty five with.
But I think they're one of the most talented in
the country. It's one of the youngest, so I think
come late twenty twenty five, but definitely twenty six.

Speaker 2 (53:15):
They're a national title contender. There you go, Dan, got
to wait a year.

Speaker 1 (53:20):
I think that's what you thought you were gonna have
to wait a year for Notre Dame, right, Notre Dame
was everything was pointing to twenty twenty five, and they
do it a year early. They get to that game.

Speaker 4 (53:28):
Well, okay, so let me ask about that before we
wrap up here. Clearly I have a rooting interest in
Notre Dame. By all accounts, the quarterback battle is neck
and neck, much to my surprise, much as the surprise
of Benny. It seems like this is a legitimate neck
and neck race.

Speaker 2 (53:43):
Here.

Speaker 4 (53:43):
Does that alter your thinking at all, Brett? Depending on
who gets the job, different skill sets.

Speaker 1 (53:49):
CJ.

Speaker 4 (53:49):
Carr much more of you know, the drop back passer,
good mobility, but he's not necessarily going to be a runner.
Kenny Minshee. I think they basically called the same offense
regardless of who's the quarterback. But Kenny Minsche is definitely
more mobile. You can put them on the run, you
can do a little bit more with him. Does that
alter your thinking, maybe just with respect to Week one,
how you view Notre Dame depending on who they end

(54:10):
up picking at quarterback.

Speaker 3 (54:13):
In fact, I could even spin it as a positive.
You know, it all depends on who we're talking about,
because you have a five star with CJ. Carr and
another top one hundred recruit and Kenny Minshee. These are
blue chippers. They were, you know, heavily recruited by everybody.
So if they're competing neck and neck, I think you
have two really good quarterbacks. If one of the people
in the situation was a walk on or a two
star or like a former Mac player or something, and

(54:35):
their neck and neck with CJ. Car then that might
be calls for concern. But I think you have two
legit quarterbacks. Like you said, maybe different styles. Maybe you
can use Minshi's legs in certain situations. If anything, you
can can confuse your Week one opponent with who you're
gonna play. They've got to prep for both guys, So
I'm viewing that.

Speaker 2 (54:51):
As a positive.

Speaker 3 (54:52):
And yeah, speaking of your two teams, I wonder if
we're going to see I call it the solid verb
Bowl Oregon versus Notre Dame in the back of a game.

Speaker 2 (54:59):
There, We're ready, We're ready, were waiting for it. Yeah,
it hasn't happened yet.

Speaker 3 (55:03):
You had to deal with an awkward one with Notre
Dame Penn State, being a Pennsylvanian, probably surrounded by staters
that had to be tough last year.

Speaker 4 (55:10):
Well, and as an alum, you know, it was like
it was yeah, I mean it was. We did a
stream for it, and in hindsight I said to Dan,
I'm like, I shouldn't We shouldn't have done that stream.
It really left me in a very conflicted state because, yeah,
these are the two teams that are rooted for, and
you know, one I've cheered for a little bit longer,
the other I graduated from the school.

Speaker 1 (55:30):
Let's be clear. As soon as that game kicked off,
he was like, Notre Dame, baby, let's do this. He
was not conflicted when between the sidelines. He was all
irish all the time. So it wasn't like, oh, that
was a good play, but now I feel no, no, Immediately.

Speaker 4 (55:46):
It took like three minutes. It took three minutes for
like the primal instincts to kick in and then yeah,
it was a lot of rooting for I.

Speaker 1 (55:53):
Feel like on that opening kickoff somebody was a good
tackle from Notre Dame or something. Maybe I'm making that up.
And he was like, yeah, baby, here we go.

Speaker 3 (56:00):
Well, hey, the college football fan that runs deep, you
can't just turn that off, you know you can't.

Speaker 2 (56:05):
You can't.

Speaker 4 (56:06):
Man, All right, Look his name's Brett Siancia. You can
find him out at Pick six Previews. Tell the find
people where to go, what they can find when they
get there, and what you've got going on this season.

Speaker 3 (56:17):
Yeah, well, thanks so much for having me second annual
previews show.

Speaker 2 (56:20):
I really appreciate it. They can't wait to see what
you guys do this fall.

Speaker 3 (56:23):
And yeah it's Pick Sixpreviews dot Com, Pick six Previews
on Twitter, the annual season preview magazine. We have the
digital version and the hard copy magazine. It's spiral bound.
People are loving the spiral binding. I mean, it's such
a simp I got it right here. Look, Brett, send
it to me.

Speaker 4 (56:37):
I forgot to thank you via text message, so thank
you for sending this up to me. But yes, it's
a nice little lot quick reference. Guyd you do a
great job with it.

Speaker 1 (56:45):
It's great.

Speaker 3 (56:45):
Well, thank you so much. Yeah, it's on there, we
got sample teams. You can take ties testimonial right there,
that's all I need. And then on there, yeah, you'll
see samples. If you buy the hard copy, you get
the digital as well. Just for those three days that
it's in USPS shipping, you have access right away. And
then also take a look at Pick six plus. It's
our in season feature. All the advanced stats you like,

(57:05):
all the against the spread, the situational splits.

Speaker 2 (57:08):
You know, how's a team as a favorite? How are
they off a buy?

Speaker 3 (57:10):
All that kind of stuff, updated every Tuesday in your
email inbox Pick six plus.

Speaker 2 (57:15):
Go check that out.

Speaker 3 (57:16):
So thanks so much for having me, guys, I mean,
always a great convo. My favorite spot of the year
for preseason talks.

Speaker 4 (57:21):
Thank you well, we appreciate it. We will do it
again sometime very soon. Again, check out Brett's work at
Pick sixpreviews dot com. All right again, check them out.
Brett Siancia Pick six Previews. I got it here in
front of me, right, where am I do it? Here
we go, I got.

Speaker 1 (57:37):
It out in front of me, beautiful.

Speaker 2 (57:39):
I showed it when Brett was on the screen. I'll
show it again now.

Speaker 4 (57:42):
I've been using this as my quick reference guide as
I go through these teams. It's a perfect compliment to
much of the other work that has gone in on
this end to try and figure out who is who
in this coming year of college football.

Speaker 1 (57:55):
So we appreciate Brett's time. He says, no acronyms, but
it's bft tie. It's built toilets.

Speaker 2 (58:01):
It's so great and we mean that not as a pejorative,
by the way.

Speaker 1 (58:04):
One hundred percent compliment that you can sit down with
it when you're already sitting doing something else, taking care
of your business, and just bang out the Houston preview, right,
just like figure out how you feel about West Virginia
or Ohio State or Washington Like it's great, great toilet fodder,

(58:25):
perfect compliment from me.

Speaker 4 (58:26):
Love it all right, Well, big thanks again to Brett.
Please go and check out his work. It does an
awesome job. On our next episode, we're going to be
doing our official prediction.

Speaker 1 (58:37):
Stan for the season Big picture. Big Picture.

Speaker 4 (58:41):
So if you go back and listen to the conference previews,
we obviously gave some voice to who we think is
winning each of these conferences, but we did not do
a playoff prediction. You need to do that we'll talk
about our brackets. I think if it's cool with you,
we should bundle in some fantasy things as well.

Speaker 1 (59:00):
One percent like it could be kind of a long show,
and so we'll do spill over fantasy things for the
fine people at Verballers dot com. That's v er there.
It is b a l l ers dot com to
support the show directly if you enjoy what we do.
So yeah, fantasy things and official predictions next week.

Speaker 4 (59:19):
And we got a uh smattering of suggestions of predictions
from the verballerhood that you're gonna be able to hear.
This will drop on Sunday, so a lot to come.
We're excited about it. The season, as I like to say,
is getting awfully big in the window. Keep it right here,
hit follow or subscribes that you don't miss any of

(59:40):
those episodes. Correct for that guy over there, my good
friend Dan Rubinstein, for myself, Tie Hildebrand, thank you as
always for stopping on by.

Speaker 2 (59:48):
Hope to see you again soon. We'll talk to you
on Sunday.

Speaker 1 (59:52):
Stay solved, peace,

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