Coaching Carousel News, AP Poll Reactions, Early Week 4 Predictions + "Con" Air | College Football - The Solid Verbal College Football

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome to the solid verbal. I'm that for me.

Speaker 2 (00:06):
I'm a man, I'm forty. I've heard so many players say, well,
I want to be happy. You want to be happy
for a day at a steak?

Speaker 1 (00:13):
Is that? Whoo whoo? And no? Damn and tie? Can
everyone see? Welcome back to the show. As I understand it,
you are still under the weather for like the four
straight weeks or how are you wal? I'm back.

Speaker 2 (00:26):
I'm good. I'm sick forever my I have never been
less healthy, but my, uh, my emotional college football resolve
has never been steelier. So I'm feeling okay. I haven't
tasted anything. I haven't smelled anything in five six days now.
It feels like I just took a bite out of ginger. Nothing.

(00:47):
I was like, oh, he's a spicy, no flavor that
anything that my tongue could discern. So you know, we're
working through a tie. Can't complain if anything should happen
to me. Uh, I will bequeath you my takes. You
will be able to bring them further into the college
football universe. But I'm going to make it. I feel
pretty good, excellent.

Speaker 1 (01:07):
Well, welcome back to you. Welcome back to the Verballer Hood.
On today's episode, you know the Drill, We're going to
react to some new polls that are out there, both
in terms of the AP Poll as well as our
Verballer Top twelve poll. We're going to compare and contrast those.
I know you have a lot to say on that subject.
We are also going to play one of our favorite games.
We actually have done something like this as a full

(01:30):
episode obviously in the off season. We will get to
that in a little bit and dissect a little bit
about what's going on in and around the world of
college football. We're also going to do the Early Bird
Special like we've been doing the last couple weeks, where
we preview a couple big games. In this case, three
big games ahead in Week four give you a little
bit more of a chance to get out in front

(01:50):
of those if you've got pick them pools, if you've
got bets, if you're just interested because you're a college
football fan. We will of course take a brows around
all of college football and tell you a little bit
more about what is going on in the big old
Week four slate. In addition to some breaking news which
we will get through Buddy momentarily yes, it is the

(02:11):
reason for the season. If you are new here, hit follow,
hit subscribe. If you are not new here, leave a
star rating, order review, and if you are a super fan,
head on out to a verbalers dot com v E
R B A L L e r s dot com.
That's where you can vote in the poll that we're
going to talk about in just a little bit. You
can participate in the community. You can get all these

(02:33):
episodes without the ads, and of course a little bit
early Dan Rubinstein. And oh, by the way, new hat.

Speaker 2 (02:39):
Oh you're looking sharp, new hat.

Speaker 1 (02:41):
I wore this the other day on the Saturday Night
recap episode. We've got new shirts that are out there. Yes,
we've got can koozies that are now out there as well. Oh,
we are starting to populate the merch store with some
new paraphernalia for those who are interested.

Speaker 2 (02:58):
When I get back the ability to take I'm very
excited to Papa Kankoozie on something and really live it up.

Speaker 1 (03:05):
Absolutely well, why don't we dive right in, Dan, We
have no time to waste, and we have recking news.

Speaker 2 (03:19):
As of twenty one hours ago.

Speaker 1 (03:23):
The news already broke. But this is our first chance
to discuss it. What going on in around the world
of college football. We've been talking about Virginia Tech, We've
been talking about UCLA. Neither team has gotten off to
a great start, and now both schools have sort of
made it official that they agree. Brent Prye out at
Virginia Tech he was in his fourth season, to Shawn

(03:44):
Foster out at UCLA he was only in his second.
In both cases, these guys were well blow of five hundred.
Priye was sixteen and twenty four in his time at
Virginia Tech, DeShawn Foster was only five and ten. I
don't think either of these names come as a huge surprise,
certainly for Virginia Tech and UCLA fans, but it may

(04:06):
come as a surprise given that it's only been just
like week three. This is kind of an early juncture
to fire your coach, Dan, I do have some potential
names that I have read. These are not Ty Hildenbrandt sources,
but this is the athletic this is on three. These
are other people who are more in the know on
these things, and you and I maybe we can go

(04:28):
through those momentarily. But do you have a reaction to this?
I know you're not surprised, but does it catch you
off guard at all that it happens so quickly.

Speaker 2 (04:38):
A little bit. I mean, I understand because of the
specific opponents that these two teams lost to in New
Mexico and ODU, that ADS and or whoever above ADS
wants to send a message that this is immediately unacceptable
and that the journey of finding a new coach begins today.
I get that you're sending a message to the money.
You're sending a message about the program and how seriously

(04:59):
the program is taking improvement. But at the same time,
what the portal opens for these players. So now there
is a good amount of uncertainty for these programs and
these rosters this year, and you're throwing away a season early,
even if you are planning on getting rid of these guys,
that unless they are capital B bad Capital G guys,

(05:23):
that there is something unifying about having a consistent head coach,
even if he's he either feels lame duck or is
lame duck. So I yeah, I'm a little bit surprised
they made these moves so early, because you can always
backchannel with agents and whatever and see who might be
interested in a job. At this juncture, and these are
two tough jobs. These are going to be two athletic

(05:44):
departments and universities that are going to have to do
a terrific job on selling candidates that these are quality places.
UCLA from a financial and stadium standpoint and just energy
around the program standpoint in the Big Ten, they just
feel like an also ran already. I also understand the
timing a little bit more for UCLA, just because Deshaun
Foster kind of felt like, because of the timing of

(06:06):
Chip Kelly leaving, that he was kind of a placeholder.

Speaker 1 (06:10):
I remember shortly after that went down, we had Bruce
Felman on from the Athletic from Fox Sports. You brought
up that very point and you were trying not to
be disrespectful totally towards the new regime. But your take
in that moment was this guy's a placeholder right.

Speaker 2 (06:26):
Right, that UCLA would use the opportunity of the twenty
twenty four season to find somebody after Deshaun Foster celebrated
Alum tries to steer the ship as well as he
can for a year. In all of these cases, these
are two schools that are not advantaged in the same
way that a lot of the teams and their conferences
are and the top of these conferences are. They're not competing.

(06:48):
Utilia is not competing with the top of the Big
ten in terms of program infrastructure, and the same can
be said for Virginia Tech when you compare what they're
trying to do on the recruiting trail and how much
they're paying coaches and comparing it to the top of
the ACC. So these schools are could potentially be good
jobs because of history and location and prestige of university,

(07:10):
but it's going to be tough to find somebody truly
established or truly in demand that is going to say,
you know what, I appreciate the other offers, but UCLA
is for me or Virginia Tech is for me, right,
And so they have their work cut out for them.
It's still attractive to coach major college football, obviously, and
I hope they find somebody interesting. I hope they find

(07:31):
somebody energetic. I hope they find somebody who can convince
people to open their wallets. And from there we'll see.
But yeah, a little surprising given the timing.

Speaker 1 (07:40):
You bring up the transfer portal. And this is an
interesting point that I don't know if people out there
fully have grasped at this point, though I know many
have talked about it. The transfer portal is now effectively
open for players at both Virginia Tech and UCLA because
of the coaching change. Neither of these teams have played
four games yet right which means that if a player

(08:02):
transfers elsewhere A they can't play right away, but they
can't take a red shirt because they haven't played four
games yet, so they can preserve that extra layer of eligibility,
which is nice if you're one of those players out
there kind of wondering what the future holds for you.
The two names on that side of things that I
am most interested in. The first probably goes without saying,

(08:22):
and it's Nico, because Nico was a very big deal
coming from Tennessee going to UCLA. I guess we will never.

Speaker 2 (08:29):
Know from southern California.

Speaker 1 (08:31):
From southern California, we will never know the exact calculus
that went on the Nico side that took him away
from Tennessee and to UCLA. But clearly through three games
in Westwood, it has not worked out all that well
for the Bruins as an entity.

Speaker 2 (08:46):
I mean, we kind of do well. I mean, it's
been pretty thoroughly reported, but yeah.

Speaker 1 (08:50):
But my point is what this means for Nico now
moving forward, I think is really interesting. I saw a
couple places already reporting like, hey, you can take this
talents elsewhere. I don't know what the appetite is for that.
I suppose we will find that out before long. The
other name that I'm very interested in is Aiden Green,
the receiver from Virginia Tech. I think he is a

(09:11):
superstar in the makings. I believe he is from Knoxville,
Tennessee originally. So whether or not somebody from Tennessee decides
they want to throw a bag to bring their boy home,
that remains to be seen. I'd love for pretty much
any of my teams to go out there and drop
a big old bag on his doorstep to see if
they can entice him either to go to State college
or Notre Dame. Because I like what I have seen

(09:32):
from him. I think he is truly going to be
a playmaking receiver in college if he can get a
better team around him, maybe in the pros at some
point down the line. So two names in particular that
I'm curious in. The other names though, with respect to
these stories, some of the ones that have been floated
out there in the early going as potentials at Virginia

(09:53):
Tech Alex Golesh at usf Ryan Silverfield at Memphis.

Speaker 2 (10:00):
Right, that connection arn't exists with Fuente Virginia Tech.

Speaker 1 (10:04):
Yeah, Bobby Chesney sure at JMU, and Charles Huff over
at Southern Miss. Oh, by the way, one big other
one is Shane Beemer that I have seen kicked around. Now.
I don't know if Virginia Tech's a better job than
South Carolina and my hunches No, but do any of
those names do it for you?

Speaker 2 (10:22):
I think those are all good coaches. Yeah, all those
names do it for me to a certain extent. But
it's again, it's going to be Virginia Tech trying to
sell it itself when these guys are going to have
presumably if Memphis keeps winning, which they've started out the
year nicely. We'll see with Charles Huff at Southern Miss.
But like, these are guys who are going to continue

(10:43):
to have opportunities if they keep winning, and with Virginia
Tech being what it is right now, which I still
think it has like pretty decent potential to be a
consistently winning program, probably not a lead anymore, but a
winning program that I think you're going to see guys
be choosy and choosier based on who has money, who

(11:05):
has alignment, who has the ability to flip a switch
and say here's how quickly, here is how we're going
to rebuild in two years. And Virginia Tech's case with
how well it started with Justin Fuente and then went
south and that was largely of his doing, but that
just program wasn't in a good place, and then with
how it just hasn't gotten turned around under Brent Pry.

(11:25):
There are going to be people who are going to say,
I appreciate the opportunity, but I think I'm going to
hold off for something a little bit that, a little
bit more shiny.

Speaker 1 (11:34):
At this point, what I will say about Beemer, and
I don't believe it will happen, but if Shane Beemer
fashions himself as a playoff coach, the pathway to get
into that game, that first round game is going to
be way easier in Blacksburg than it is in Colombia.

Speaker 2 (11:52):
Well, there's competition in the ACC and you're going to
have to say, I believe that Virginia Tech can be
good enough to be one of the best two teams
in the ACC two or three teams, which recent history
suggests that's very much an uphill battle no matter who
the coach is, and in the SEC you're going to
get four, five, six, depending on the size of the playoff.

(12:14):
You can be the fifth best team in the SEC
and get in as this playoff expands. So I guess
it's all your vantage point. I guess. I guess you're
gonna be able to build a better roster at South Carolina.
I just think it's easier to go ten and two
in the ACC. But is it easier to go? Is
it easy to go or not easy? But it is?
Is it realistic to say you're a good enough coach
who can turn Virginia Tech into a ten and two program?

Speaker 1 (12:36):
No, I don't know.

Speaker 2 (12:37):
So that people take invites at that apple.

Speaker 1 (12:39):
Absolutely, Virginia Tech is interesting in its own right. The
UCLA one is interesting for a multitude of other reasons,
some of which you alluded to, but it's been widely reported.
We often talk about alignment and its role in getting
a coach in place and moving a program forward. It
does not seem like there is any alignment on the

(12:59):
US on the UCLA side, excuse me, both in terms
of the finances the administration.

Speaker 2 (13:04):
No, No, I think there's alignment. They're all aligned that
they're not going to spend on football.

Speaker 1 (13:08):
Well, there's that.

Speaker 2 (13:09):
Everybody's in lockstep.

Speaker 1 (13:10):
Yeah. So some of the names that have been thrown
out there are of course of a lot of interest, right.
Danton Lynn was at UCLA now at USC Dave Randa.
I saw Bruce mention, Dave Randa because of his ties
to Southern California. Kalani Sataki at BYU, Tosh Lupoi, your
defensive coordinator up at Oregon, Tony White now defensive coordinator

(13:34):
at Florida State, has some roots. Spencer Danielson at Boyse,
Tommy Reese his name coming up.

Speaker 2 (13:40):
Yeah, spend time in Southern California, spend time there.

Speaker 1 (13:43):
I also did see Jedfish. I don't know if I
want to believe that yet. Jedfish always finds a way
to get his name in here. I don't know who
the right name is at UCLA. I mean it's got
to be somebody who comes in and can energize the administration.
I think first and foremost that they can build something.
But UCLA is kind of in a bad spot right now,
just holistically in terms of the football program, and I

(14:05):
don't know if any of these guys really are going
to have a clear and obvious path to make this
much better in the short term.

Speaker 2 (14:12):
I mean, I would definitely the first call I would
make if I were UCLA would be Jonathan Smith to
see if he's happy in the Midwest with his west
extensive West Coast roots and like recruiting familiarity on the
West Coast and finding winning three star type guys to
come to UCLA and build that program up slowly like

(14:32):
that would be a call I would make. Obviously, Michigan
State is in a more advantaged position, it seems from
a financial standpoint and from a you know, there's not
a ton of momentum in East Lansing, but it's certainly
there's a lot more high profile about Michigan State even
still than UCLA. So I'd make that call and see
how happy he and his family are in the Midwest.

(14:52):
But otherwise, yeah, it's obviously a list of reasonable names.

Speaker 1 (14:57):
That list of names would be whittled down here over
the next couple weeks I'm sure we will do our
best to keep you abreast of the situation. And being
so the coaching carousel has started up this early, my
hunch is that there will be more to follow before long.
There will be other programs that want to make the move.
I think we knew at the end of last year
it was kind of a limited field out there of

(15:19):
places that we're looking for new coaches. My hunch is
that it's going to be a bigger one this season,
and they might get off to an earlier start depending
on how things go. So keep it right here.

Speaker 2 (15:28):
Tie's not saying Gainesville real estate, but he's saying Gainesville
real estate. Yeah, let's reveal some polls, shall we. Let's
Dan Rubins state we.

Speaker 1 (15:38):
Have a new AP top twelve or Verballer top twelve
excuse me, we both both know, and an AP Top
twenty five. So here is the lay of the land.
There's not much movement in the top three, at least
on the AP side. We've got Ohio State, Penn State,
LSU that remains in state. But Miami went up one,
Georgia went up one, Oregon dropt a little despite the

(16:01):
fact that they won. Florida State up a few to seven,
Texas down one to eight, Illinois holding steady at nine,
Texas A and M up six spots by virtue of
their win over Penn State to number ten. I will
not read through the entirety of this, but I will
tell you that Old Miss went up four, Alabama went

(16:21):
up five. We also had Utah and Texas Tech a
game that we're going to talk about here in a
little bit. Both of those schools up for the big loser.
As you might expect. The Notre Dame fighting Irish at
oh and two oh and two ty oh and two
drops sixteen spots and they are still ranked at number

(16:42):
twenty four. You've got much to say about this, don't you.

Speaker 2 (16:46):
How do you feel about it?

Speaker 1 (16:48):
I don't think they should be ranked at O two. Yeah,
even though those games were close, and even though I
do think that Notre Dame is still going to end
up being a pretty good team at a minimum before
the end of the season, I don't know how much
precedent theory is for an zero to two team that
played two quality opponents close. So I'll be it very close,

(17:09):
but not dropping out of the top twenty five. Being so,
it was their first two games like I would need
to see at least one win before I'd want to
keep you in the top twenty five. I don't even
think I had I know I didn't have them in
my Verballer top twelve. I probably wouldn't have ranked them
in the top twenty five. And again, I still think
this is going to be a good team. They will
have plenty of chances here before the end of the

(17:30):
year to work their way back into this thing. But uh,
I don't know. That's a little too rich for my blood.
Even at twenty four.

Speaker 2 (17:38):
I would have dropped LSU a little bit after their
they scored thirteen offensive points against Florida. Is that the
number I would have dropped ls a little, not a lot.
I don't consider Texts to be a top ten team
after yet another performance on offense that was less than impressive,
especially through the air. I would have Georgia Tech higher
because I just think what they've done, having those two wins,

(17:58):
one on the road to open the season against Power
conference opponent, a decent Power Conference opponent. Whatever your opinion
of Colorado is, I don't think they're horrible. And Georgia
Tech beating Clemson, I think is impressive. I think Clemson
is quality, but I'm fine with them dropping out of
this pole, like by a considerable margin. Right They're yeah,
eighth or ninth or tenth or something in others receiving votes.
Fine with USC entering here. I'd probably have Vandy a

(18:21):
little bit higher. Again, Virginia Tech's not good from a
couple of weeks ago, South Carolina's about Leonora sellers. They
emphatically took care of business in both of those games.
So I would have Vandy a little bit higher, just
because there were comparing Vandy against teams who have played
your Kent States and your Furman's and whatever, and so
I'd like to reward teams for playing quality early on

(18:41):
and measuring themselves against that quality. I'm fine with where
Tennessee is, fine with where Alabama is, Iowa State. I
might have dropped them a little bit. Just another sluggish performance,
we'll see. And Notre Dame, it's just at this point
inexcusable to have them in the top twenty five. If
this poll is too gay age wins and losses and

(19:02):
who you've played and putting that into a cocktail. The
na portion of Notre Dame's wins like these are the
we're sort of celebrating the winningest winners, whoever won, and
Notre Dame is there because people thought in August they'd
be better than they've looked so far. Their defense has

(19:24):
been atrocious.

Speaker 1 (19:25):
Yes, no, but you're making my case against preseason polls,
by the way.

Speaker 2 (19:30):
No, no, no, no, you're an August snapshot. I'm great with
an August snapshot that we just throw into a blender
once we start saying football.

Speaker 1 (19:37):
But people take that August snapshot and then they use
it as the go by for the remainder of their
rankings throughout the month of September. Right, you got to
be looking to not have that influence. By the way,
this is exactly the reason why for ball are top
twelve is superior to the AP poll. Mind you, of course,

(19:58):
all right, and this is not just me saying it
because I've got something to sell you, but I honestly
believe it. There is a lot less regard for where
teams were ranked last week, and a lot more respect
for which teams actually look the best. Like we celebrate
a limberpole. We absolutely celebrate the limber pole. There's a
lot of eye tests here. Clearly, everybody's got their own

(20:18):
formula for how they ranked these teams. But Ourverballer top
twelve is Ohio State, Oregon, Miami, Georgia, LSU, Penn State
at six, Florida State, Oklahoma at eight A and m
up to nine, and then Illinois, Georgia Tech and Iowa
State rounding out the top twelve. There are three really
good examples by the way of why I think this

(20:40):
pole is better. The first is Penn State, who I'm
not going to wax poetic about, but you know, I
don't think Penn State has looked all that good. They
are two in the AP. They are six in the
Verballer pole, LSU, who you mentioned, you might consider dropping
a little bit. They're three in the AP poll. They
dropped the spot, They're down to five in the verball poll.

(21:01):
And Texas dropped entirely out of our pole. They would
actually be thirteenth or fourteenth. That have to check the
points the verbawlers out there not getting Texas benefit of
the doubt, and why should they agree? Why should they?
What have they proven that they should be in that
top twelve. Doesn't mean they can't jump back up to
like number five if they get a big win wimber Pole.
There's no reason why they couldn't. But more to the point,

(21:23):
whether it's Texas, whether it's any of these other teams,
whether it's Notre Dame, you got to show us something.
You got to show us something if you want to
be ranked in any of these things. And I think
that's fair. I think that's an entirely fair, defensible point
of view.

Speaker 2 (21:35):
I just like our dear friend super Mario. Right, you
capture that flower, you capture that what is it a
tanuki suit?

Speaker 1 (21:41):
Ye?

Speaker 2 (21:42):
Right, of course, you capture that magnificent win. You have
new powers in this pole. But if those powers run out,
or if you take a little bit of abuse on
your on your path to saving the princess, you're shrinking
away from me. That's all. And I'm I'm happy to
apply this to any team. I'm not sure why was drawing.
They were up thirty four to nothing with their starters,

(22:02):
and it's fine whatever, it's it's a long season. But
I uh yeah, I started going back to look at like,
is anybody else at oh and two still in a poll?
And it's not as Notre Dame at o and two,
it's oh and two with a buy before a big game, right,
it's the Notre Dame is being treated like an elite

(22:23):
loser here and I'm just not here for it. When
teams are accomplishing something and so Notre Dame can climb
back in. I feel like they have a quality ceiling still,
and if you want to give see say that they
can are good enough to be in this poll when
they're three and two, four and two, five and two whatever. Yeah,
I'll look at the manner in which they win those games, Like, sure,

(22:45):
Notre Dame's in the poll, but right now it's just
gross and embarrassing to have them here.

Speaker 1 (22:51):
Right in salverbogmail dot com. You can also hit us
up across social media on any of our channels. Let
us know your thoughts on this pole. If you're watching
on YouTube, leave us comment. We would love to get
your input on how these teams are stacking up right now.
But as always a little bit to react to here
with respect to the ap of course, with respect to

(23:12):
the Verbawler poll, you can vote every week at overbowlers
dot com. Dan, Yes, okay, we have a segment that
we are bringing somewhat out of retirement. As I said
at the top, We have used this as one of
our off season themed episodes in the past. We did
it last week when we talked through Dunzo or not Dune,

(23:36):
so we're going to do it again this week.

Speaker 2 (23:37):
Yes, play the sound please, Dan. Oh my god, I
can't wait. That's what polsters are, poll voters are saying
about Notre Dame. I gotta have you in my top
twenty my top twenty five.

Speaker 1 (23:52):
That's a poll without Notre Dame. We're calling the segment
con Air Dan. Of course. It is based around the
nineteen nineties seven thriller, a heartwarming tale featuring Academy Award
winner Nicholas Cage, among others. It's a story of an
ex con trying to get home to be with his wife,
to be with his daughter. It is a classic, to say,

(24:16):
the absolute bare minimum. On today's episode, though, our version
of con Air is us throwing out topics and us
coming up with a con prefixed word to describe how
we feel about it.

Speaker 2 (24:30):
You can almost say it's up in the air. You
could almost say topics. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (24:33):
Absolutely.

Speaker 2 (24:34):
Cameron Poe, love Cameron Poe. One of the great characters
of all time. Little Malkovich in there, Little Malcovi, John Cusack. Yeah,
also in Steve Bushmi a little bit of a cameo
appearance in there as well. All right, so where are
we starting. What's up in the air that you're either
concerned or confident in?

Speaker 1 (24:55):
Give me a con word related to arch Dan Rubinstein?

Speaker 2 (25:02):
Yeah, I'm concerned. Can I keep talking like that? Can
I keep using that?

Speaker 1 (25:06):
What you want at your show?

Speaker 2 (25:08):
Yeah, I'm concerned, just because this is the third year
and you know, increasingly getting reps last year a couple starts,
I believe against was it Monroe and Mississippi State for
Texas last year and having a whole off season as
the guy, and obviously it comes with a fair amount
of hype, and it's a last name thing, it's a
Texas thing, it's an sec thing. It all makes sense.

(25:30):
But to come in and look as off as he
has early, this is when he's supposed to be otherworldly
and maybe over hyped and overrated because he's going twenty
eight of thirty one against San Jose State or something
like that, and you're just like, holy moly, this guy
is just it and he hasn't been it against these teams,

(25:51):
and to on the fly find it against who Texas
has left on this schedule is a big, big ask,
and maybe we all owe a little bit of an
apology to quin yours. Hey man, you were so bad.
You had your deficiencies.

Speaker 1 (26:05):
We all do.

Speaker 2 (26:06):
But I'm not ready to write off arch Manning as
a successful quarterback. But in the present tense, once again,
I said this on Saturday night, it is concerning because
Texas has every advantage in the world in terms of
roster building and Sark developing quarterbacks. He's done it time
after time, and this guy, just in the present tense,

(26:28):
is not it. So I'm concerned.

Speaker 1 (26:30):
Yeah, I'm not going to say I'm fully concerned, but
I'll say I'm I'm conscious of the problem. I'm I'm conscientious. Okay, Yes,
I don't want.

Speaker 2 (26:43):
To go some convoluted words here.

Speaker 1 (26:45):
I know I'm trying. I'm really digging into the toolbox
of vocabulary terms. But I'm not full on concern. But
I but but conscious, you know. I think I think
we are right to be aware of this, and I
think we are wise to pay attention to it moving
forward to see if it's more of a trend. I
was looking at some of the advanced numbers and I
won't bore people talking through all my air yards and

(27:08):
success rates and completion prier adjusted netyards per attempt, all
these things that make people's eyes glaze over. But there's
a lot of red on that spreadsheet with respect to
this Texas passing offense. And I think what I'm most
interested in and what is preventing me from going full
concern with this is if you watch the tape on Arch,

(27:30):
to me, it looks like he's trying to do way
too much right now. He looks like he is out
there playing a little bit of hero ball. Maybe he
is feeling the pressure of now being QB one. It
probably is just going to take him a little bit
more this season to get in the swing of things.
That's kind of how I feel about Arsh. Now that
being said, a couple weeks down the line, it gets

(27:52):
tough in a hurry. We may not think a whole
lot about Florida. Perhaps Billy Napier is on the hot
seat now more than ever. On the road in the
swamp is not easy.

Speaker 2 (28:02):
No, just environmentally, Yeah, the.

Speaker 1 (28:04):
Game neutral side against Oklahoma is not going to be easy. Oklahoma,
I think it's looked damn impressive so far. They're also
on the road at a place like a Mississippi State,
which again had a three and a half over under.
Mississippi State's looked much better than expected so far this season.
You can go right down the line here games against Georgia.
Of course, there's a game against Arkansas at home a

(28:26):
week before that rivalry against Texas A and M comes
back to Austin. This is not an easy slate by
any stretch of the imagination. So I think this week, actually,
in week four, they've got a game at home against
Sam Houston. Sam Houston's zero to three. They're not a
good team, but this is an opportunity. A game like
this is what I want to see when I want
to see Arch manning pop. I think it's going to

(28:48):
be games like this where he needs to get a
little bit more confidence. He needs to confidence, yeah, right,
needs to build for the season ahead. After this week,
they go on by before things really eat up beginning
of October as they get more into the throes of
the SEC schedule. So this week actually, for me, I
think is going to be a pretty interesting tell for

(29:09):
where things are at with Arch many If he doesn't
look good this week, knowing that there's a little bit
of a getaway situation here with the by on deck,
then I'm going to be full blown concerned.

Speaker 2 (29:20):
Okay, so you're to be continued on arch Man.

Speaker 1 (29:24):
You're not ready to reach at this than me.

Speaker 2 (29:26):
But yes, you're not ready to reach a conclusion.

Speaker 1 (29:29):
No, no, no, okay Georgia Tech. Yeah, give me a
con word for Georgia Tech.

Speaker 2 (29:38):
Oh, I'm confident.

Speaker 1 (29:39):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (29:40):
Why I'm not confident necessarily was their schedule. They're winning
close games. They are leaning on what they should be
leaning on, and that is the expertise and enthusiasm and
killer instinct of Haines King. And this offense, the defense
is getting stops. The defense wild, not perfect, while not

(30:00):
stocked with NFL players, obvious NFL players, in the moment,
they're holding up there end of the bargain. And again,
it's health. It's the schedule that's ideal, and I think
there's a fire with which they play that has to
be confident that again, health is the big thing that

(30:20):
confident in their ability to take care of business against
teams that are built with quote unquote better players, teams
that are built with quote unquote lesser players. I just
think there is a culture in place that I am
in awe of. At the moment, I.

Speaker 1 (30:37):
Would say congratulatory, honestly, sure, or just congratulations on the
Georgia Tech side. I really like what we have seen
so far. I mean, this is a gritty team. I
believe you mentioned it at one of our episodes or
one of our previous episodes talking about how Brent Key
looks like he eats sawdust for breakfast. Yes, they have
definitely embodied that spirit so far.

Speaker 2 (30:59):
And if you look around the ACC.

Speaker 1 (31:01):
The ACC is gettible, man, it is gettible. Clemson is
not what I thought, certainly not what I thought. They
were well already beat them, so they don't even have
to worry about that in the moment. Yeah, but I'm
saying bigger picture right as we've got this divisionless setup
in most of these conferences, it's possible to beat a
team then end up in a rematch. If they played
that game again today, I would again feel pretty good

(31:22):
about where Georgia Tech's at. I think you have to
because there's a lot on the Clemson side that feels
very much in flux. Florida State has looked incredible so far.
We don't know if that will continue. There is definitely
a body of work on the Miami side, even though
they have looked really good so far the season, where
we look at their team, we look at what they've
done in the past under mister Mario Cristobau, and we say, okay, well,

(31:44):
they have come up short in some of these big moments.
There is a toughness that I think we can question
about many of the other peers in the ACC that
I don't think we can question so much on the
Georgia Tech side.

Speaker 2 (31:54):
On a losing streak to Georgia Tech. By the way, Miami, Yeah.

Speaker 1 (31:57):
They're very, very tough. They're a tough minded and in
a conference that to some extent still feels wide open
to me, I just congratulate them on getting to this point.
You can congratulate Icon, yes, congratulate that we are both
convinced of Georgia tack. And look, the other good thing
about Georgia Tech in this moment is they have room

(32:19):
to grow on both sides of the ball. That it
is possible that with self scouting against a couple of
these teams, that they can go back to the drawing
board against some of these teams that might be struggling
a little bit more on their schedule and figure out
how to pass downfield even more, how to take advantage
of play action even more, how to get after the
pass or even more. That there's room to grow for
Georgia Tech. And that's that's always a good thing. Dj

(32:42):
Lagway dan Ah Man.

Speaker 2 (32:47):
Once he transfers to Oregon, I feel really good about the.

Speaker 1 (32:52):
He's not going everywhere. He loves Florida.

Speaker 2 (32:55):
Well, if his coach is gone after this year.

Speaker 1 (32:57):
He loves Florida. I think he is. He is a
Florida lifer. He is not going anywhere.

Speaker 2 (33:02):
Okay, okay, Djagway, I think he is not the only
one to blame. Obviously, he has played fewer years or
has been in college fewer years than Arch Manning, And
so that's why I put a little bit more on Arch.
That number is terrible. That five number against LSU is
flat out terrible.

Speaker 1 (33:21):
Five interceptions.

Speaker 2 (33:22):
Yeah, when you're capable of five interceptions, that means on
a certain level, you are incapable of regulating yourself and
throwing into quadruple coverage and not seeing guys in lanes
that you are just letting it rip without any regard,
and that's concerning to me. I'm not going to be

(33:44):
a DJ Lagway apologist because they do have advantages as well,
like Florida does. The advantage that they don't have is
they don't have the offensive mine behind the scenes to
sort of develop him as a quarterback, it seems. And
so I'm willing to who extend a little bit more
grace to DJ Lagway moving forward, because I think some

(34:05):
of the throws he does make still leave you in awe.
It doesn't make up for the five number against LSC.
And this should be good LSU defense this year, we think.
But I'm concerned but not convinced that this season is
a wasted DJ Lagway year.

Speaker 1 (34:21):
Yeah, And what's interesting, just again diving into the spreadsheet
a little bit, they've actually done a pretty good job
protecting him. The past protection has been okay. They haven't
allowed a whole lot of pressure relative to the field.
Billion Napier's still calling plays, which has definitely been a
thorn in many sides in the Florida universe. And also
they have assembled so much more talent around him, especially

(34:41):
out wide, that you would hope in the early going
here if Florida was going to take this big quantum
leap forward, that they would find better ways to tap
into that. Now I know they're still banged up a
little bit still, I would expect to see a little
bit more against the likes of USF, even against the
likes of LSU. LSU was taking a big step forward

(35:02):
on defense. I think we know that at this point
in time. But in the past, this is not a
defense that we have confused at all with the shutdown defense.
And even if it is better than it was a
year ago, there's still no excuse for five interceptions. That's
just way too much.

Speaker 2 (35:16):
By the way, sidebar, I don't know if this item
is on your list, but I am convinced Brian Kelly
needs a few real friends, a real confidant or something.

Speaker 1 (35:24):
We're going to talk about Brian Kelly next. Who I
want to talk about Brian Kelly next.

Speaker 2 (35:28):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (35:29):
But on the Florida side of things, I also do
get the sense, much like I described with arch Manning,
where DJ might be trying to do a little bit
too much, where maybe the play calling isn't there to
help support him. There is also a lot of red
on this spreadsheet. This has not been an explosive offense
at all so far this season. So they've got a
lot of work to do. And if we bring it

(35:52):
up with Texas, we have to bring it up with
the Florida Gators because I think their schedule is harder.
Like they're on the road this week at Miami before
going on by and then coming back home to play Texas,
going on the road to play Texas A and m
getting Mississippi State at home again, who has played well.
They've also got Georgia, They've got Ole miss They've got Tennessee,

(36:12):
and they close out the season against the Florida State Seminoles,
who have been having their own renaissance so far this season.
To be at this stage one in two does not
bode well for hitting any of your overs. I think
that goes without saying, and it certainly does not bode
well for a guy like a billion Napier who was
already coaching for his job. So at a minimum, just

(36:33):
with respect to the Florida season, I'm very concerned. I
don't even know what the con word is on the
DJ Lagway thing. I am con fidint that he will
stay at Florida regardless of who the coach is. I'm
sure Jed Fish will do a great job re recruiting
him to stay in Gainesville once he gets Oh, but
right now, I think my concern is more about the

(36:55):
Florida program and where it's headed and certainly billion napier
than it is. DJ Lagway, Okay, fair enough, LSU. I
bring up LSU not because they're not winning, but because
of the offense. Dan, Yeah, what is the deal with
the LSU offense? Is that a concerning thing to you
at this point or is it overblown?

Speaker 2 (37:17):
It is concerning to me at this point, just because
this has been one of the programs that has been
more active in the portal to try and improve things.
This year it was at receiver and I think tight
end obviously a rebuilt offensive line. But if your starting
point is Garretnssmyer, who we were very high on in August,
and we know that like the best of Aaron Anderson
is incredibly impressive, that they have star power on this offense,

(37:40):
even the best of Caden Durham, even though they haven't
been running the ball that impressively, is very impressive. Like
he is, legitimately just as an individual talent, I am
confident in saying he's a good player. They can't or
they haven't been able to sort of put it together
against the better teams that they've played this year in

(38:00):
in Florida and Clemson offensively, and there's a lot of
talent on those teams, and the defense has been the story.

Speaker 1 (38:06):
I just.

Speaker 2 (38:08):
The Brian Kelly freak out after somebody asked him about
a very real concern at LSU is other than the
long run to end things, they weren't able to move
the ball on the ground and that was a concern
after last year and that was something that they were
you know, they had a couple of big plays against Clemson,

(38:29):
but this isn't a complete offense, and given what they've
put into this offense, him freaking out at a reporter
asking him about that, I mean, the question probably could
have been phrased more artfully in that saying like, hey,
there's always positives and negatives to take away from any game.
Obviously beating Florida is an exciting thing for LSU football.

(38:51):
Always what are the sort of positives and things that
you want to work on? And he answered that question,
not that question, He answered the question, which was like,
are you concerned about the running situation. I'm paraphrasing here
in a way that like he's only watching the SEC network,
like he's only watching a pr TV show all the
time that tells him how good he smells all the time.

(39:14):
And didn't understand why coaches like Nick Saban and Kirby
Smart come away from wins saying things like, we've got
a lot to clean up, I'm not satisfied that we
met our bar today. And Brian Kelly just was behind
a podium with just zero ability to put anything in
perspective and to talk about anything. And I understand after

(39:36):
a game, you're emotional, and I like the emotional aspect
of these guys at the podium after these these big
close games or whatever, but zero ability to put anything
in perspective was unfortunately kind of par for the course
for this guy. Well, here's the thing, I am very
fluent in BK. He's just so deeply unlikable all of

(39:57):
the time, he really is.

Speaker 1 (39:59):
And here's the thing about him. He is the consummate politician.
He has been a master over the years at not
giving too much of anything away, which is why when
you see some of these character breaks like the one
that we saw with him at the podium. That to
me indicates this is a dude who's feeling the pressure. Yeah,
and they're undefeated, and they're a top five team, and

(40:21):
they've got games coming up that are clearly going to
challenge their metal. Right, They're going to Ole Miss in
a couple of weeks. They were going to Alabama in
week eleven. As we get into the month of November
as that game is typically played. They've got a big
home tilt in week nine at the end of October
when you're going to be away actually against Texas A
and M. So they're going to be opportunities here for

(40:42):
I think more pressure cookers in the SEC. As Ever,
if we're seeing this now, this tells me that Brian
Kelly understands that he is very much under the microscope.

Speaker 2 (40:50):
This is LSU, It is LSU, this is this place
had maybe the best college football offense ever, not that
long ago.

Speaker 1 (40:58):
It should There is a great prize that you're under
the microscope. But what this tells me when we see
breaks in character like this from him especially, this tells
me that he's feeling the heat. He is absolutely feeling
the heat. I am not concerned about this and The
reason I'm not concerned about the offense is because I
would much rather be asking the question about, Hey, you're
going to figure out the offense than what the hell

(41:19):
are we going to do about the defense, because that's
been the question the first couple of years for BK.
The defense has been a train wreck this season. If
we are to take anything away from what we have
seen early against two at least quality opponents in Clemson
and Florida, the defense has looked pretty good. Defense has
definitely held up its end of the bargain. So if
you're telling me that you loaded up this offseason, you

(41:41):
did everything you could to get better on offense, to
surround your pro caliber quarterback with better skill talent, and
just on the whole, get better on that side of
the ball. Give them a little bit more pop. I'm
pretty confident that they will figure that out in due course.
But that was the biggest question coming into this thing.

(42:02):
If they continue to play this wall, you gotta like
where they're at because eventually, eventually they have to figure
out the offensive side of the ball. There has to
be more pop.

Speaker 2 (42:10):
They're the bizarro Notre Dame. Oh god, they are right.
They're winning losable games. Technically, I guess. I mean the
Florida game was. Yeah, they interceptions helped and everything, but
they did not play well enough on offense to typically
win against a quality team if that's what we consider
Florida to be. Notre Dame does not have Brian Kelly
anymore Alice who very much does have Brian Kelly right now,

(42:32):
and they're winning some games and not super exciting fashion,
and Notre Dame's losing those games. So yeah, there's a
bizarro element.

Speaker 1 (42:39):
Some of this final team here is Notre Dame and
it is the defense. Yeah, and yes, I'm very concerned
about this defense. Al Golden had this defense playing at
a very high level, and that goes without saying. And
it had been a long slog to get the Notre

(43:00):
Dame defense to this point, or to the point it
was at at the end of last season. Granted some turnover,
but still I think a lot intact. Clearly, nobody expected
that there would be this big of a step back.
If you would have told me last year that Notre
Dame would score forty points against anybody in the lose

(43:22):
like they did this past weekend against Texas A and M,
I would have said you're crazy. Even if there were
a medium step back with Chris Ash, I still would
have said you're crazy. Forty points. I will take that
every day of the week. I'll take that right. But
what we're seeing right now is an inability to get pressure.

(43:44):
What we are seeing right now is miscommunication in the secondary.
What we are seeing right now, I would say across
the board is a lot less discipline than I'm used
to seeing. I don't think it's any issue of not
having the talent. I think they have, by leaps and bounds,

(44:05):
improved their talent on the defensive side of the football.

Speaker 2 (44:08):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (44:08):
I think this is a scheme thing, and I think
this is a Chris Ash thing. Okay, Marcus Freeman got
the question, are you going to consider making any changes
and who's calling the plays on defense? He said no,
he said what he had to say in that moment.
I'm curious to see how Freeman solves this problem. If
he can solve this problem, because he's been good at
doing that when he's had his back up against the wall.

(44:31):
Marcus Freeman, I think has done a pretty good job
figuring out what these problems are and solving them in
many cases. In real time. That was on display last year,
especially in the offensive side of the ball where they
had so many injuries along the line. They were good
at kind of piecing that together on the fly. So
I give him benefit of the doubt that he's got
the talent in place and he's got to know how
to fix things quickly. But this has definitely been a

(44:54):
concerning step back, and it is not a mirage because
we have seen them now against two quality opponents, and
in both cases it's been more of the same where
there's been miscommunication, they cannot get pressure, despite the fact
that I think they've got really good talent in the
front seven. This is a scheme thing, in my opinion.
This is a Chris ash thing in my opinion, who,

(45:15):
by the way, none of us were all that crazy
about when they hired him.

Speaker 2 (45:19):
Urban Meyer was.

Speaker 1 (45:20):
Urban Meyer was. But urban Meyer can go pound sand
down because I've been watching what Notre Dame has been
doing these last two games, and it has not been
that exciting. Okay, So whatever Urban thinks, forget it. That's
out the window. This defense that was top ten caliber
the last couple seasons has taken a huge fall from
grace here in the early part of the season, they've

(45:42):
got to make. They got to make some kind of
change to figure out a way forward with this because
if they want to make any serious run at the postseason,
which granted feels like a bit of a stretch at
this point, but who the hell knows, Right, it's still
very early. Notre Dame needs to show what it can
do over these next five weeks, otherwise it's going to

(46:03):
be game over. So they got to get it together
in a hurry. And whether that's with or without Chris
ash as the one calling the plays and designing the schemes,
I guess that remains to be seen.

Speaker 2 (46:13):
I'm just as shocked as anybody that Marcus Freeman has
struggled with a coordinator higher because he hasn't done that
in like two weeks. So good to see that some
things you can still count scoundrel? Am I wrong? Maybe
maybe I'm wrong by the end of the season. Look,
we all have wonderful memories of the Gerard Parker era
and it's lastinger, Sir Jared Garrod. We all have fond

(46:38):
memories of that, obviously, and interviewing forty four candidates to
be an offensive coordinator and landing on his friend. That's cool,
It'll work out somehow, some way.

Speaker 1 (46:50):
I don't know, man, I'm just I'm confounded. Let's say
on how this has gotten this bad this quickly? But
it looks like a completely different defense right now, and
not in a good way.

Speaker 2 (47:01):
Right okay, fair enough?

Speaker 1 (47:03):
Right in again, solid abougimail dot com. Let us know
your thoughts on these topics, other topics that maybe you
are concerned about, confused about, confident in that we did
not have a chance to address. We can come back
to this segment at some point in the very near future.

Speaker 2 (47:19):
Why don't we bring this thing home?

Speaker 1 (47:20):
Dan? Early Bird Special? Three Big Games. There are only
three games between ranked teams in Week four. We're going
to preview all of them. Here, give you a little
bit of an Early Bird Special. I've been playing different
sounds to intro this segment.

Speaker 2 (47:35):
I think you've been nailing them, but.

Speaker 1 (47:37):
I played our pick sound. Now I've been playing this one.
I like the Early Bird Special sounds. Why don't we
stick with this High noon on Fox on Saturday and
Week four? It is the Texas Tech Red Raiders. It
is the Utah ut Utah is at home. They are
a three and one half point favorite. I would say,
despite the fact that Texas Tech made a ton of

(47:59):
headlines with what they did in the offseason, sort of
been crickets so far during the season. That's probably had
a lot to do with the opponents Arkansas, Pine Bluff,
Kent State. In Oregon State. They have beaten those teams
by a combined one seventy four to thirty five. In
terms of strength of schedule, it has been the easiest

(48:22):
schedule in the country through three weeks.

Speaker 2 (48:24):
There's an Oregon State now learned something every day. Yes,
it is. It is tough to take away too much
from what Texa Attack has done so far other than
this is what a good team should be doing against.

Speaker 1 (48:37):
Other than that. Yeah, And to be fair, it's not
like Utah has played that much harder as slate. They're
one hundred and twentieth in strength of schedules. So far,
they've beaten UCLA, cal Poly and Wyoming by a combined
one thirty seven to twenty five margin.

Speaker 2 (48:55):
But UH struggled in that Wyoming game in the first half,
a missed field goals, inconsistent going downfield. I don't think
Devin dan Pierre has been a terrific quarterback downfield, which
just makes him a Utah quarterback defense.

Speaker 1 (49:09):
That's right.

Speaker 2 (49:10):
I'm a believer in this Utah team in this moment.
I think the defense is for real, has behaved like
a real defense. Certainly Texas texts defense is for real. Well,
excuse me, has behaved like a for reel defense. Should
they've They've stopped the run incredibly well. I lean Utah
in this just because it's at Utah and Rice Echles

(49:31):
is a dastardly place to play for everybody who summits
the journey going up to that altitude in Salt Lake.
So I like Utah a little bit more. I think
they have the most proven element in this game, and
that is the consistency on the coaching staff on defense.
That is some of the star power on this defense.

(49:53):
There's still questions about some personnel in this defense, but
if I get Utah's defense at home, it's direction. I'm
just gonna lean if quarterback isn't in a disastrous place,
and I don't think quarterback is in a disastrous place.
We'll see what Devin Dampier looks like if he is
forced to explore a bunch of third and eights and

(50:13):
third and eleven's right, not typical of the Utah offensive experience,
but that's TBD. Texas Tech on the road under Joey
Maguire has been fine. They haven't been excellent. They haven't
been incredible as underdogs or anything like that, but they
haven't been terrible. So if you're giving me something TBD
with Texas Tech, and you're giving me something that I
think is somewhat dependable in the Utah defense at home,

(50:35):
I'm gonna actually take the points. But Utah wins this close,
I think. Let me tell you what I wrote down.
I wrote down twenty three to twenty one Utah.

Speaker 1 (50:47):
I went back and forth one hundred times.

Speaker 2 (50:49):
And I don't even mention too much about Texas Tech,
which I will continue.

Speaker 1 (50:53):
This might be the game in Week four that I'm
least confident in terms of efficiency. Both of these offenses
right now are top five overall. Now take it with
a grain of salt, consider competition, but these are opponent
adjusted numbers. Yeah, they've looked good. The offenses have been

(51:13):
very good. They're one and two in success rates on
the ground. Both have been able to run the football.
There is a huge question here about how Utah is
going to deal with Texas Tech linebackers because what we
have seen so far the season from Tech is the
defensive front eating up space and allowing the next level

(51:37):
to create the pressure, especially their transfers. Ro Melo height
David Bailey comes down from Stanford. Those guys are tied
for the team lead in sacks and they're getting a
lot of the pressure. I don't think it's a mirage.
I like the players, I like their coordinator shield would
a lot, and I like this matchup. I think this
is the matchup that decides a lot of the game.

(51:59):
Because Utah should of one of the better offensive lines
in the country. This is going to be the chess
match that ultimately determines this one. That's the big key
for me on the tech side. Finding a way with
playmaking linebackers that can get pressure, who can maybe stop
the run at a minimum, cut off Devin Dan Pierre
from doing too much damage on the.

Speaker 2 (52:18):
Ground, force passing downs.

Speaker 1 (52:19):
Yeah, if you can stop that on the ground, it's
a different game. On the Utah offensive side, stop me
if you've heard this one before. Utah and not all
that explosive offensive. No, certainly not through the air. So
for me. That is what I am watching, and that
is why I'm going Texas Tech with the points here

(52:40):
much like you, because I am expecting something that is close.
I am expecting something that is way more physical than
we are used to seeing from Texas Tech defense. The
adjusted numbers have been really good on offense on both
sides of this one, but especially on the Texas Tech
side of things. Seems like they have been able to

(53:01):
replace Toaj Brooks somewhat in the aggregate, and Baron Morton's
been solid. He's been good. He's been a little bit
banged up, which again stopped me if you've heard that before,
but an eleven to one TD'D interception ratio, it seems
like he has been very very good so far. He
just needs to stay healthy.

Speaker 2 (53:17):
And this is also without Quinn Joyner, who they expected
to be wrecked.

Speaker 1 (53:20):
That's correct. That was a big loss. So they've been
pretty good at figuring out ways to replace that production,
albeit against minimal competition. Yeah, I think Tech goes on
the road and wins.

Speaker 2 (53:32):
Wow, you know, I think big nuons there, right, Yes,
So I think there's just going to be so much juice,
a lot of Utah juice. I just don't do it
at home in a big spot with this defense. Now,
it's not for me.

Speaker 1 (53:44):
Twenty seven to twenty five, A close, a physical game,
the one I'm least confident about. For that reason, maybe
more so than anything else. I'm going with the points
here plus the three and a half.

Speaker 2 (53:55):
I've got that Mario Cristobal Salt Lake City scar tissue.
Not for me.

Speaker 1 (53:59):
Yeah, No, that fair, totally fair, Yeah, I get it.
But I have liked what I have seen from Texas
Tech all right thus far. Twenty seven to twenty five.
I think they go to Utah and get the dub.

Speaker 2 (54:12):
All right, taking the points, but going the different way.

Speaker 1 (54:14):
We just agree one of the other rank matchups three
point thirty, ABC, it is your Auburn Tigers.

Speaker 2 (54:25):
Thank you.

Speaker 1 (54:26):
I don't know why I gave them to you, Yeah,
versus my Oklahoma Sooners. Oklahoma favored by six and a
half points. Dan. Of all three of the games that
we're going to talk about here, and maybe of all
the games that we're going to talk about this weekend,
I think it's likely that this is the one that
gets the headlines. Sure, this is the one that gets

(54:46):
the headlines because these are two teams that. Look, we've
made no secret about They've made no secret about all
of the movement this offseason brought in a bunch of transfers.
Both coaches understood that they were under the gun. And
this is interesting because it's a Jackson Arnold revenge game,
is it not?

Speaker 2 (55:05):
It is?

Speaker 1 (55:07):
What are we expecting here from Jackson Arnold against his
former team?

Speaker 2 (55:11):
I think we've sort of we know who he is
as a quarterback, which I mean They've been playing a
little bit of pickleballish offense this year. Their successes have
come on the ground, though he improved a little bit recently.
Their receivers are great. I don't trust this offensive line
a ton. I don't know, maybe it's just me, but
they haven't been incredible. The defense has been up and down.

(55:33):
Baylor was able to move the ball pretty consistently, but
that's game one. You have to extend grace for game
one and the ability to improve after that. Baylor are
a very real offensive opponent. I'm also trying to figure
out to what extent I feel like the Oklahoma win
over Michigan is overblown.

Speaker 1 (55:49):
I was going to ask you about that. Please elaborate.

Speaker 2 (55:51):
Are we fully confident confident in Oklahoma's offense again to
Michigan as a bell Weather moment for the Sooners this
early on in the season, because we like John Mattier.
A lot of that was on the ground, A lot
of the second half folk heroess of it all was
on the ground or in the shorter passing game. And

(56:15):
how many different ways does Oklahoma have to win not
just this game, but a lot of games this year?
And so I think John Matier is a good enough
quarterback to be a complete quarterback. But is Oklahoma's offense
built to win in a number of ways? I like
Oklahoma here. I like Oklahoma here. What did I write
down on my digital legal pad twenty eight to seventeen?

(56:38):
I think playing in Norman, I think the ability that
I think quality defense will have to limit Auburn offensively.
I don't trust Jackson Arnold in this spot. I trust
a lot of the skill talent for Auburn. There is
something about Auburn on the road here that I can't
fully get past. So I'm going Oklahoma as the more

(57:00):
fully formed, winning DNA type team. Difficult place to play defense,
a quarterback who can make plays at the very least.
I just think they have more advantages here in more
ways to win in this one that if they're able
to stop the run and force Jackson Arnold to like
drive the field a bunch. I just playing the numbers here.

(57:23):
I think I like Oklahoma a little bit more so
I have them by barely double digits.

Speaker 1 (57:26):
Yeah. By the way, is it not going to be
the default article written in advance of this game about
how Jackson Arnold has a little bit of extra motivation
to go back to Norman and get the dub right?

Speaker 2 (57:37):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (57:38):
Is that not going to be written a million times?
Is that not going to be broadcast a million times
in advance of this game? Am I crazy for thinking
that this isn't actually a good thing for Jackson Arnold?
It's a lot of pressure, Like if anyone knows what
they're up against with Jackson Arnold, is it not Oklahoma
and Brent vnnibles. When we last saw Jaja in the

(58:00):
Crimson and Cream, didn't we fully think he was broken?

Speaker 2 (58:04):
He didn't even play in this game last year?

Speaker 1 (58:06):
No, I fully expect that Oklahoma is going to go
into this one with a focus on stopping the run
and forcing him to pass. Yeah, and for what it's Worth,
like the Auburn Brown game has not been all Jackson Arnold.
Jeremiah Cobb has been very good. He's been averaging over
six yards of carry totally. But I think if Auburn's
gonna win, they're gonna need to get a big game

(58:27):
out of Jackson Arnold in his legs, and I'm not
feeling that either. On the flip side, what we've seen
very early so far this year is teams struggling to
deal with John Mattier. So they've been trying to deal
with him by playing a lot of zone. Eighty eight
percent of the time they play zone against John Mitier,
and it's not really working. Oklahoma has been very good

(58:50):
when they're going up against zone. They've been even better
when teams try to play man. But teams are playing
a lot of zone and trying to count for him
as a runner. And what's interesting about the way that
they're playing offense is that he's actually not scrambling. Most
of what we've seen out of Jamatier on the ground
has been designed runs, right, So what's that mean. It
means he's not really catching them by surprise with scrambles.

(59:11):
It's just teams see it coming they can't stop him
because he's that good, or because the line is that good,
or because there are more distractions because the offense is better.

Speaker 2 (59:19):
I don't know that's Illinois State and Temple between or
sandwiching that mission. Sure, it's not a great data set.
It's not a great data set.

Speaker 1 (59:27):
No, No one's got a great data set at this point,
except for Notre Dame, except for Notre Day. But this
is this is what it profiles as at least on
the spreadsheets, and if you watch the games, I mean,
I think there's a lot to back that up as well.
I've got Oklahoma thirty one to twenty.

Speaker 2 (59:40):
So both by eleven, both by eleven.

Speaker 1 (59:42):
I think Jametier is the architect of a couple big
plays that break the game open. I think the Sooners
can absolutely face Jackson Arnold and force him to make
one or two bad decisions in this game, and ultimately
that's what ends up swinging this one in favor of Oklahoma.
So I'm on the Sooners here thirty one twenty. I
really like Oklahoma so far this year. I like them

(01:00:03):
a lot more than I expected in the preseason. I
think they get the dub here. We agree last but
certainly not least Saturday Night on NBC, Todd Blackledge, Noah Egle,
You're Illinois fighting a lion I against the Indiana Whoho Hoosiers,
Indiana at home, a four and one half point favorite. Dan,

(01:00:27):
very quietly the game.

Speaker 2 (01:00:28):
Of the day, very quietly agree.

Speaker 1 (01:00:33):
Number nine Illinois on the road, Number nineteen Indiana. I
called this one out back at the beginning of August talk.
I said this was potentially a play in game for
the playoff. Let me repeat something that may be obvious
only to us, I don't know should be obvious to
you if you're listening at home. These are two legitimately

(01:00:54):
good teams, we think, I know. Okay, and that's a
full stop moment. I get that we are not used
to having this discussion about Illinois and Indiana, but that's
just where we're at and the year of our Lord
twenty twenty five. Okay, Illinois, India, these are two good teams.

Speaker 2 (01:01:13):
That first half against Western Mission get you going for Illinois.
Shut up, Come on, make your your next stand up.

Speaker 1 (01:01:20):
I'm talking about this.

Speaker 2 (01:01:21):
Shut up.

Speaker 1 (01:01:21):
Yeah, I'm having a moment over here.

Speaker 2 (01:01:23):
Shut up, hey, ladies.

Speaker 1 (01:01:25):
Yeah, both teams three and zero Indiana's toughest opponent, it
says here old Dominion back in Week one. Dominion recently
beat Virginia Tech putt prior to them again again Yes, uh,
And Illinois had to win two weeks ago against Duke
that I think opened some eyes with how they closed

(01:01:46):
that one out. But to your point, yes, in both cases,
kind of hard to know what any of these early
numbers mean if you can trust them. Give the opponents. Yes,
their opponent justed, but who cares. There are a couple
of things that I'm seeing that point to Illinois. But
I will, okay defer to you for right now. Where

(01:02:08):
are you at here?

Speaker 2 (01:02:10):
I'm leaning Indiana. It's at home. Indiana hasn't shown anything
against anyone this season but one. They've covered spreads under
Kurt Signetti. Yes, they've been that murder machine. Yes, the
game is at home Illinois. Last year. If you are
high on Indiana as a legit team, right, if you're

(01:02:30):
on high on Indiana as a legit team, Illinois doesn't beat.

Speaker 1 (01:02:33):
Those teams.

Speaker 2 (01:02:36):
Like a legit playoff conversation team. Illinois doesn't perform at
all against those teams, or hasn't lately, right, or maybe
ever I think Indiana is better in this moment. I
like the ceiling of this offense with Fernando Mendoza a
little bit more. I like the relentlessness with which Indiana
has played under Kurt Signetti a little bit more. Like

(01:02:57):
there's just this constant sense of urgency against teams either
built similarly or lesser, which Illinois's done a really good
job building out this roster. I like a lot of
parts of this Illinois team. I think you need to
score points if you're gonna beat Indiana. I think you
need to score thirty points if you're gonna beat Indiana.
And in terms of what Illinois is offering me outside,

(01:03:19):
Hank Baty's had a nice connection with Luke Altmeyer. I
just think Indiana is a better team or a better
program at its best right now. I think, again, you've
highlighted the opponents. There's not much to go on. But
I think Fernando Mendoza is a legit good quarterback, as
do I think Luke Aalmeyer is a legit good quarterback.

(01:03:40):
But if you're giving me Kurt Signetti as a favorite
at home, Indiana has just performed in these spots more.
Illinois is legit good. But I want to know where
that pop is. I want to know where that winter
wonder is from Illinois, and to me, it's not obvious
in a spot like this. That's why I'm going Indiana here.

Speaker 1 (01:04:00):
What's the line four and a half at time of
recording on Monday afternoon?

Speaker 2 (01:04:04):
Yeah, thirty one, twenty four, thirty one to twenty somewhere there.

Speaker 1 (01:04:08):
By the way, if I could draft a quick fantasy
thing here, please, I'd like to draft a frosty postgame
handshake between Bretta.

Speaker 2 (01:04:20):
That's a no brainer.

Speaker 1 (01:04:21):
Yeah, it Kurt Signetti Billema. Ever, the troll. Signetti definitely
does not appreciate trolls. I could see that happening here. Okay,
here are the two things that I fixated on when
trying to figure out this game. The first thing is that,

(01:04:42):
at least right now, and for whatever you think of
numbers this early in the year, Indiana outside the top
one hundred in rushing yards allowed before contact. Again, numbers
being what they are right now after week three, I
don't know if they mean a whole lot, but given
the competition, the fact that they are outside the top
one hundred against that field, to me is I think

(01:05:04):
a little bit concerning, because that's usually a pretty good
indicator for how good of a run stopping unit you've got.
Right now, I believe they're also dead last and yards
per successful rush, so it's a more nuanced to look
at yards per carry, granted, but this is all a
very long way of saying. If you gave Brett Beilahma
truth serum and you said, hey, do you want to

(01:05:26):
run the ball fifty times and win? There's like the
one hundred percent chance, a thousand percent chance that Brett
Bielhma is going to answer you with a hell yeah,
hell yeah. That's his default mode. So I'm looking for
a big game on the ground from Illinois in this one,
a mix of Cadenvegan and Khalil Valentine and Luke Altmeyer.

(01:05:47):
They'll find some way, somehow to make that work. But
Illinois is a running team so far this year has
been fine. I think this is one of those Bilma
tendencies that we've seen in the past that we're going
to see a lot in a big game here. If
he can run it and win, he's going to want
to do that. The second thing is that Indiana has
not blitzed at all in their first three games, they're

(01:06:08):
not blitzing. They're getting pressure, maybe because of who they're playing,
but they are not blitzing when they're not converting the
pressure into sacks, which I think is something that we
might see on display in this Illinois game. We're finding
that receivers have a little bit more tendency to get
down the field and get open for longer completions one

(01:06:30):
way or another, whether they're blitzing or not. In this
game against Illinois, I think this is potentially something that
works to the align as advantage. If you are getting pressure,
especially against a guy like Luke Altmeyer, you've got to
find ways to turn that into sacks. Otherwise you give
him a chance. He is definitely the kind of guy

(01:06:50):
who can extend plays and work down the field, and
they've got good enough receivers to work down the field
and create some of those chunk plays. I think we're due.
You mentioned Hank Baby earlier. I think we are due
for a game break by him out wide in one
of those moments where maybe they get pressure on Altmeyer,
he extends the play, he finds a way to create

(01:07:12):
something down the field. Those are the types of chunk
plays that hurt Indiana in a game like this. Okay, Now,
I have learned that you don't want to underestimate Kurt Signetti,
and this is still I think a really good Indiana team,
an Indiana team that I like a lot. I share
your admiration for Fernando Mendoz. I love the guy. Yeah,
I just don't think it clicks as well against a

(01:07:34):
really good team in Illinois. I've got Illinois winning this
one thirty one twenty four on the.

Speaker 2 (01:07:40):
Road, Illinois winning it by what I said Indiana would
win it by. Okay, So I like the very specific
way in which we.

Speaker 1 (01:07:45):
Just agree we do disagree. I also think Illinois is
gonna blitz the crap out of them in this game,
and hope that looks like what Ohio State did yes
last year. Okay, I think they're gonna blitz the ever
loving crap out of Fernanda Mendozo. Okay, I think that
is the template here. They're going to try to run
to win, They're going to get a couple big plays
when everything else breaks down, and they're going to force

(01:08:07):
Fernando mendos in s into some tough spots. Okay, thirty
one twenty four, we disagree.

Speaker 2 (01:08:14):
Okay, fair enough, so.

Speaker 1 (01:08:16):
Real quick, if you are listening to this bright and
early on a Tuesday morning, you're wondering what is in
store for you in week four. Friday night game Iowa
at Rutgers. Don't know if that's how you want to
spend your Friday night. But if you do backup plan,
if you are a big ten sadist and you want
to watch this and spend your Friday night doing this,

(01:08:37):
Rutgers is a two and a half point home dog.
Got a couple other interesting games throughout the course of
the week, and it's spread out really well. I'm struggling
with what the window of opportunity is going to be
this week. Okay, got the Iron Skillet game SMU against
TCU early in the day on Saturday. You also got
Arkansas Memphis going on at the same time. I think

(01:08:58):
that could be a fun game. At three point thirty,
it's Michigan at Nebraska. We will absolutely need to preview
that one on the Thursday episode. Yes, that's a big
game to Land at Old Miss could be interesting. NC
State at Duke is very quietly, I think a great game.
That one's at four o'clock.

Speaker 2 (01:09:15):
Yep.

Speaker 1 (01:09:16):
Also in that mid afternoon window. You've got your Oregon
Ducks a thirty five point favorite at home in the
Platypus Cup against Oregon State. We've got North Carolina on
the road about a touchdown dog against UCF, which I
don't know if I fully get that, but okay, okay.
And JMU versus Liberty, which probably isn't as big a

(01:09:39):
game as it once looked to be given the fact
that Liberty's aready dropped to But it's a big one
for JMU. They're about a ten point road favorite. At night,
we've got some bangers, hopefully, hopefully, hopefully.

Speaker 2 (01:09:53):
We've got some looks like bangers. Three weeks ago, Week four, nighttime.
So I just mentioned the Indiana Illinois game. We've also
got South Carolina against Miszoo. It looks like Lenora's is
gonna be out. Oh the he's out.

Speaker 1 (01:10:06):
Okay, I am interpreting as much given the fact that
Missoo right now is about a two touchdown favorite.

Speaker 2 (01:10:13):
Right that's true.

Speaker 1 (01:10:15):
Florida against Miami in state rivalry, Miami favored by seven
and a half right now. That's at night, Arizona State
at Baylor. Baylor is favored by three.

Speaker 2 (01:10:24):
Kind of makes sense. Last time was say, Arizona State
on the road.

Speaker 1 (01:10:27):
Yeah, also got the Apple Cup Wazoo a twenty one
point home dog, and a game that is gonna fly
under the radar BYU traveling cross country to square off
against ECU. Ooh, ec you can score, that's true. Seven
and a half point home dog. Looking at it, I'm

(01:10:47):
looking at it. And then a nightcap Wyoming against Colorado.
Don't know what to make of Colorado, but Colorado twelve
and a half point home favorite. And then at eleven
pm Eastern time. Yeah, ah, Michigan State on the road
at USC USC favored by about seventeen points.

Speaker 2 (01:11:07):
I get that sky rising money that late ty, gotta
get that money. Michigan State USC local time, eleven pm
kick for Michigan State fans.

Speaker 1 (01:11:20):
Well local time for Michigan State fans, I guess would
be what a ten pm kick?

Speaker 2 (01:11:23):
Oh, excuse me, ten pm kick eleven pm Eastern Yeah,
a ten pm local kick.

Speaker 1 (01:11:29):
Body clocks are gonna be a little bit tired. That's
usually past my bedtime.

Speaker 2 (01:11:33):
Man, So that means they're not home until Sunday midday.
Something like that. I guess se Michigan does Michigan State
have a bye the following week. I have no idea ida,
I'll take a look, but man, what an unfortunate reality. Man,
we're gonna be doing our live stream. They're gonna be
done with the first quarter in that one. It's like

(01:11:53):
a Hawaii game. Oh, Michigan State does have a bye,
thank god. They travel to Nebraska on October fourth.

Speaker 1 (01:12:03):
Anyway, it's a good week of games. It's a really
good weekend game. Sure, I would encourage people now if
you're doing some advanced planning, if you've got to figure
out a date night, figure it out this week because
Week five is going to be crazy. Of course, week
five we're also going to be up at Penn State, Oregon.
We did find a way into the stadium after they
rejected our credentials. But yeah, we have good tickets into
the stadium. We will talk about that in due course.

(01:12:25):
But that's going to be a banger of a week.
There are a bunch of huge games in week five,
so make sure they get the date night out of
the way in advance. Make sure that you plan accordingly
this week. We will help you every step of the way.
Window of opportunity coming your way on Thursday, as well
as a broader look in and around the world of
college football. Don't forget if you are doing a little

(01:12:50):
bit of advanced planning, set a reminder, drink some coffee.
Join us on our midnight live stream as we recap
all of week four. We will talk about that a
little bit more on the Thursday at But the stream
has been a ton of fun, albeit a little bit
tired and you a little bit sick on all of
them so far. Correct, But it's fun to go back

(01:13:10):
through and talk about all things that transpire to the
world of college football.

Speaker 2 (01:13:14):
Have you fully shifted to Penn State now?

Speaker 1 (01:13:17):
No? No, no, no no.

Speaker 2 (01:13:20):
Is there a point where you might.

Speaker 1 (01:13:23):
With the way Penn States look? No? Not yet?

Speaker 2 (01:13:25):
Really good second half last week.

Speaker 1 (01:13:27):
I don't know, man, I'm just not there yet. Okay,
I don't really know what I'm seeing here.

Speaker 2 (01:13:32):
Ty they win games, they end up in the right.

Speaker 1 (01:13:35):
College play defense, too, don't they?

Speaker 2 (01:13:37):
They do play defense.

Speaker 1 (01:13:39):
This is how I know I'm getting old. I'm starting
to like fixate on defense. Yep, it does win championships.
They were not wrong about that.

Speaker 2 (01:13:47):
They're not wrong. Mario Craver has gotten so much exercise
this week.

Speaker 1 (01:13:52):
Right in solid verbal at gmail dot com. Do check
us out at verballers dot com if you're interested in
supporting what the and I do. Of course, not only
can you vote in the for Baller Top twelve poll,
but also we have a run the Board pick Them
game that is ongoing. We will talk about the weekly
prize when we do our Thursday episode, but we have

(01:14:15):
a record number of people who have signed up to
be part of Run the Board again. If you finish
in the top five at the end of the year,
you get to be on our board of trustees. The
games that you will be picking though in week four
are most of the ones that we described here. Twelve
games on the slate. You get to pick all of
them against the spread. If you finish in first, you'd
qualify for a great prize. You got to be one

(01:14:37):
of our paying certified or premium for ballers in order
to qualify for it. But if you are one of them,
we will talk about that prize in the Thursday episode.
Run the Board is the name of the game.

Speaker 2 (01:14:48):
We should give away the new I slide Ty Hildenbrandt
flip Flop flip flops that we're developing for the solidble star.
You know, if one of your teams isn't looking so
high boom, what.

Speaker 1 (01:15:01):
Does the design look like for that? For for what
the tie flip flop? Is it my face on the
flip flop?

Speaker 2 (01:15:08):
Yeah, one of one of it's a happy face on
one and it's a sad face on the other. It's
a man for all seasons.

Speaker 1 (01:15:15):
Nobody would buy that. Nobody wants that.

Speaker 2 (01:15:17):
Oh, I would absolutely pay a premium. No, you wouldn't,
of course I would.

Speaker 1 (01:15:21):
You would bet you would buy that.

Speaker 2 (01:15:22):
It's conversation started with.

Speaker 1 (01:15:24):
My feet on it, or with my face your feet,
your feet.

Speaker 2 (01:15:27):
It's a limitless potential my face on your feet. Yeah,
of course nobody would buy that. The tie Heilder brand
flip flop flip flops.

Speaker 1 (01:15:38):
You can right now buy the hat. We do have
cusies out there. We made the koozies. We got some
new shirts. We got one new shirt now a time
of recording, and we've got some other ones that are
in the queue.

Speaker 2 (01:15:50):
Yeah, we'll have two shirts this week. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:15:52):
Yeah, by the time we get to the Thursday episode,
we will talk a lot more exhaustively about that. It
will also put it in the newsletter. All that stuff
if you're interested, But for now anyway, some of the
hats have started to go. You can get this hat
in black and blue in addition to the white, and
the shirts are a lot of fun. I don't want
to spoil surprise. We'll talk more about that in the

(01:16:13):
next episode. Yes, Dan Rubenstein, feel better? Okay, we need
you at I'll trying optimal capacity in time for week four.
Try it for that guy over there, sick Dan Rubinstein,
for myself. Tie hell the abill talk y'all soon and
entimes stay solid.

Speaker 2 (01:16:27):
Peace

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