RIVALRY WEEK PART 1: Mike Norvell Retained, Justin Wilcox Fired + Picks for the Ole Miss-Mississippi State, Georgia-Georgia Tech & Texas A&M-Texas | College Football - The Solid Verbal College Football

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome to the solid verbal hulleh for me, I'm a man,
I'm forty. I've heard so many players say, well, I
want to be happy. You want to be happy for
day Ato state?

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Is that? Woo whoo?

Speaker 1 (00:14):
And no Dan and tie.

Speaker 3 (00:18):
It is Rivalry Week, Baby robody week is here, Dan Rubinstein.

Speaker 1 (00:24):
I'm not even going to give it a nickname like
I do for most Saturdays, because there's no topping Rivalry Week.
It's basic, it's simple, it's to the point, and it's
lethal in its messaging. So come on, ty it's Rivalry Week.
I am so I hilde Brand.

Speaker 2 (00:40):
He is Dan Rubinstein, not in his normal abode. We
should add work ue.

Speaker 1 (00:45):
By the way, I'm in some southern California. Excuse me.
I'm in the San Fernando Valley, just north of la
in my middle brother's childhood bedroom, speaking into a work
iPad that ungs to my wife, don't tell anybody, and
using the alt microphone. Hopefully it's a passable technical performance.

(01:08):
I promise nothing from a creative or informational standpoint, Well,
welcome in one at all.

Speaker 2 (01:15):
I am tyee is Dan. This is part one of
what will be a two part Rivalry week extravaganza. We
are going to talk through a couple of the matchups
today the three Biggies, at least from our vantage point.
On Friday, of course, there are many exciting games on Friday.
We'll give you a bit of a rundown as to
what is ahead. We've got, as I said, three big previews.

(01:38):
We're also going to go through some of the latest
coaching carousel news. We're going to give you the results
of that football or Top twelve polls so that you
can be ready in advance for whatever the new set
of polling looks like. When the College Football Playoff releases
theirs on Tuesday evening. It is a pleasure to be
back with you, Dan, even though you are on the
other side of the good old USA is returning to

(02:00):
our roots. We do it a couple times a year
where you're out there. I am still over here, and
it's easy to forget. This is how we started this
whole thing. You were in La I was in Allentown,
and you just sort of found a way to make
it work.

Speaker 1 (02:13):
I regret everything, ty When I see the number that
gets me eleven megabits per second upload, I should be
back home, Tye. And I have a good amount of
anxiety as we do this, but a lot probably not
probably not as much anxiety as a lot of these
teams and coaches and players heading into a huge weekend.

(02:37):
Why don't we dive in? Dan, the coaching So.

Speaker 2 (02:44):
The roar is because we've got more coaching news. It
is the reason for the season. The latest one is
that Justin Wilcox has officially been relieved of command at Cal.
You can add another one to the list. They fired
him with one game remaining in his ninth season, if

(03:04):
you can believe that out at Cal. Some of the
early names that have popped up alongside this opening Tosh Lupoi,
currently the defensive coordinator at Oregon, Ryan Grubb, currently the
offensive coordinator at Alabama. We've got Sean Lewis who right
now is the head coached out at San Diego State.
Jason Eck, I know you're a big ech head, currently

(03:26):
the head coach at New Mexico. And also Tim Plow,
the UC Davis current head coach. Just five names that
I saw out there. Have not seen any others, but
this is relatively fresh news. Dan. I don't know if
it comes as a great surprise. This has been rumored
on and off now for the last couple years running.

(03:46):
I guess the only bit of surprise to this is
the fact that Cal is throwing their name their hat
in the ring of an already very crowded market with
respect to job openings. So, California guy, you're out there
in California at present, Is this what the locals are
talking about buzzing about town?

Speaker 1 (04:07):
Yeah, you can't go anywhere without people talking about the
cow Golden Bears here in LA. This is a very
difficult job. This is a crazy difficult job. Given that
now you're not only recruiting to Cal, which is a
terrific school, and the setting is great, and when Cal
football is good, it's a really fun home field advantage,
but also Cal is in the acc now, And so

(04:28):
what you're saying is, come to this terrific academic place
and it's a beautiful campus. Whatever, You're gonna be playing
in North Carolina more than you think you're gonna be
playing in Florida. You're gonna be playing in Boston. You're
gonna be playing I guess outside of Boston, you're gonna
be playing in Pittsburgh. So the cell that whoever the
next guy is is going to be pretty difficult. And

(04:52):
so I imagine all of these names that you're mentioning.
You know, I've heard Tosh Lapois pretty quickly, who is
an alum and an assistant at CAL and is known
to be a a great recruiter. You're gonna need certain
guarantees from an nil and enthusiasm, from a collective standpoint,
and from an administrative standpoint, that CAL is not only
going to be competitive but probably needing to pay a premium.

(05:14):
And now we've seen them in the portal have some success.
Obviously they have a quarterback of the future right now
from Hawaii, and what his future looks like we'll see.
But everything he said indicates, at least when Justin Wilcox
was there, that he sees himself in Berkeley and there's
a bright future for him and the Bears. We'll see.
So I think it's an extremely tough job because of

(05:36):
where this team will be playing, and because of you know,
if you're a top West Coast kid, or even if
you're an underrated West Coast kid, it's hearts one. Keep
the powers at Bay, the Arizona Schools, the LA Schools,
obviously Oregon Washington, and you're gonna have to lean on
maybe having a legacy, you know, really leaning on the

(05:58):
East Bay. Perhaps it's just it's harder than ever to
look at Berkeley as a big time destination for even
top kids in the area given their options. So I'm
not saying it's impossible, because again, great school, high potential there,
but there's a reason why not a ton of people

(06:19):
have succeeded in there, and that was like PAC ten,
Pac twelve, and Justin Wilcox seemed to like, figure out
offense one year, figure out defense the next year. And
so I guess the sidebar element of this is there's
a terrific defensive mind out there on the market as well,
and Justin Wilcox, well, that's just it.

Speaker 2 (06:36):
And I more to the point here with this job.
I mean, Justin Wilcox has been a defensive minded head
coach for as long as he's been in the game,
and so part of me wonders do they look for
a guy with a little bit more of an offensive pedigree.
Some of the other names here obviously Ryan Grubb a
current offensive coordinator, but Sean Lewis was an oc at
Colorado for a moment, has definitely had a track record

(06:59):
for being good on that side of the ball. Jason
Eck I believe also would fall only there for a year, yeah,
so you know. And Tim Plower remember him as well.
So these are other guys that I think maybe could
give them the other perspective. We often see schools flip
flop from one coaching philosophy to another, defense to offense,
defense to offense. We'll see if Cal decides to go

(07:22):
in a similar direction. But of note here they are
now in the game as well, adding to the list.
After we filled the opening at Virginia Tech, you can
put a new one up on the board in Cal.
The other big news here on the coaching carousel front
is a job that will not be open, at least
not this year, Mike Norvel. It was announced relatively early

(07:47):
on Sunday that Norvell was going to be retained at
Florida State. He will be the head football coach in
twenty twenty six. This is on the heels of loss
twenty one to eleven against NC State. They did not
look good and I think you and I talked about
this on the recap episode, and I went so far
as to say, I don't know how he comes back
from this. But the truth of the matter is this

(08:10):
for Florida State, and I think they were wise to
at least understand the circumstances around them. His buyout is
fifty eight million dollars. That's a lot of potatoes. Okay,
it's a lot of potatoes. He's currently under contract through
twenty thirty one. You may recall he's signed that extension
when his name was in the running potentially to take
over at Alabama for Nick Saban. So this would have

(08:32):
been a very very costly venture for Florida State A
to get rid of Norvelle and then b to throw
their hat in an already crowded ring of coaching vacancies.
Right Not only are you contending with schools like Penn
State up north, you're contending with Florida in State right
there alongside you, LSU, potentially ol Miss if Lane given

(08:55):
decides to go to LSU or somewhere else. Right, it's
just a very very crowded market right now. And I
think if you're a school like a Florida State, you're
looking at this and you're saying, we don't want to
be the fourth best job or whatever. It would end
up being we don't want to be that far down
on the totem pole. We want to make sure that
if and when it comes time, this is a job

(09:15):
that people are circling, that they're lining up to talk about.
So I get the logic behind it. You know, they
have very much tried to build this thing the last
two years out of transfers, and they have just not
had as much success as they did back in like

(09:35):
twenty twenty three when it was a big deal and
it all kind of worked right. They have leaned very
heavily on what they can do in the transfer portal,
and you know, the recent results on that front have
not been there. So lord knows what the philosophy looks
like now moving forward. Are they going to stick with
that plan? Are they going to try to do more

(09:56):
of a balance. It's not like the high school recruiting
has been popping off or anything. So there are some
real questions that I think need to be asked about
the philosophy behind the Florida State program, even separate from
who is running the team. That all makes sense, it does.

Speaker 1 (10:13):
Yeah, there's calculus on a number of different levels here.
Obviously you're speaking to what the market looks like in
terms of coaches and where Florida State might be in
terms of interest in that community. And I'm sure Florida
State had those conversations with agents and backchanneling and figuring
out where they might stand with certain names that they
may or may not be interested in, and made the

(10:35):
decision to bring Norvell back for you know, foregoing the
price tag of his buyout and you know, putting money
into the roster perhaps in different ways. Look, let's it's
not just that they relied on the portal. It's that
some coordinator and assistant promotions definitely haven't worked out. Florida
State has improved on both sides of the ball in

(10:57):
certain areas. It's you know, very obvious. You know, you
look at Game one. They just haven't closed out games
right that It hasn't always worked out for the defense.
You look at a game like the like the Pit
game for example, when a freshman quarterback comes in and
Florida State gets to thirty thirty one points and it's
just not enough because they couldn't stop Mason Heinschel, they
couldn't adjust, they couldn't do what was needed to get

(11:19):
that Pit offense off the field. And then at times
it looked like the defense, excuse me, the offense was
in a much better place. I mean, how could it
be worse from where it was in twenty twenty four,
But it was obvious that they improved. But putting everything together,
there was a cohesion that just didn't exist week to
week with Florida State, And whether it was Mike Norvell's
decisions to bring on or stop working with certain coaches,

(11:41):
his decisions on the staff as a culture builder, as
a program builder, as a roster builder just have not
paid off in any sort of meaningful way. After he
was in demand for that Alabama job, after they were
on the precipice of making the four team playoff. Remember
it was a four team playoff that they were left
out of. And so you're saying to yourself now that like, okay,

(12:02):
we're going to make changes once again with the roster,
with coaches, and now we're going to say, yes, we
understand that things are looking pretty bleak in Tallahassee with
the future of this program under Mike Norvel. But come
be a new offensive defensive coordinator, potentially, come be the
new quarterback, Come play defensive tackle. Like it's a tough

(12:24):
sell now. So as much as I understand putting that
money into Florida State, you're now asking potentially new players,
new coaches to believe in Florida State as a non
lame duck program, which is a big ask, and so
you might be paying a premium. You might be trying
to take chances with much smaller school guys looking for

(12:45):
a huge break and hope it works out that. I
still feel like this is very much Mike Norvell tiptoeing
across dental floss to maintain order in Tallahassee. So it
doesn't seem like things are still going to be set
up for success. But I also understand what'd you say
was fifty eight million dollars thereabouts.

Speaker 2 (13:04):
Yeah, it's, as I said, a lot of potatoes one
way or another.

Speaker 1 (13:08):
So there's probably also a situation in which the money
behind the scenes may not be there or is reticent
to trust whoever is hiring the new guy if they
keep empowering Mike Norvell. So Florida State's just sort of
sitting it, sitting in it for the time being.

Speaker 2 (13:27):
I think that's true, And I mean the question of
how they're going to construct this roster now moving forward
is immediately where my mind went first, because we, among
many others, had very serious doubts about hitching the whole
wagon to Tommy Castellanos and Gus mals On. So there

(13:49):
will be guys out there, you know, maybe jks will
be out there. I'm sure there'll be plenty of quarterback
names who are looking to move. Bring down Kenny Minschee.
I mean, you got options if you're a school like
a Florida State that's got a very rich tradition of
college football. I just think they need to change the
philosophy and you know, find a better and this is obvious,

(14:10):
but they need to find a better mix of players
and coaches that can work together. And it doesn't feel
as lopside.

Speaker 1 (14:17):
Yeah, but what's I mean if the philosophy is Mike
Norvella is the head coach, I know, I know this
is probably what you're getting.

Speaker 2 (14:24):
Like, I get it.

Speaker 1 (14:25):
The playoff precipice year seems more and more like an
aberration than a like target to get back to. It
just doesn't seem like a good match. It seems like
we know where this is heading. And Florida State again,
it's the calculus of like do we pay fifty eight
million dollars now? Do we pay less later? And if
you don't feel like you can get that coach, if
you don't think that obvious guy to come in and

(14:47):
strip it to the bolts and get it, I say,
strip it to the studs. That's what I'm looking for.

Speaker 2 (14:53):
The bolts.

Speaker 1 (14:53):
I mean there are bolts in the bloods. Yeah, that's true.
To strip this program down and rebuil in an efficient,
meaningful way, then I just think, like, at best, we're
heading to another year, another two years, whatever it's going
to be of Bowl ish Florida State, losing winnable games

(15:15):
and inability to convince top tier quarterback recruits and transfers
to come to Tallahassee, top tier coaches to come to Tallahassee, whatever,
And we're kicking the can down the road, and to
expect anything dramatically different. It's just seeming more and more
foolish right now. But I get it. It's not my money,

(15:36):
So you know, this is a real conundrum. I get it.

Speaker 2 (15:40):
And look, if you're surveying the landscape for twenty twenty six,
there are a number of coaches that are already in
the hot seat going into next year. Baylor announced they're
going to retain Dave Randa. He's certainly a name who's
been on and off of the hot seat the last
couple of years. Luke Fickle retained at Wisconsin. He might
be the hottest seat in all of college football. We're

(16:01):
going to have Mike Loxley coming back at Maryland. They've
decided they want to reinvest a little bit of their
money into the roster construction element and not pay it
in terms of a buyout. I get the logic. And
now Florida State, and I'm sure there will be others
that we are watching. There will also be other jobs
that open, I'm certain of that, But at least for
the time being, we are still at least seeing some

(16:22):
logic be applied to how schools want to play the
current coaching market. And it's crowded out there. So we'll
see what Norvell can do. He's getting a stay of
execution here. The last two portal cycles have not been
very kind to him, and clearly this is not the
type of leap. Even if even if Florida State will
get back to a bowl game, this is not the
type of leap they were hoping for. No, but he's

(16:45):
going to get another bite at the apple, So we'll
see see where this goes.

Speaker 1 (16:48):
Yeah, and look, this is still the ACC. But the
sort of average ACC team is pretty good, right that,
Like there are even though you can look at this
and we a lot of this with Virginia Tech and
hiring James Franklin that the ACC is gettable or whatever,
you're still talking about a conference with an improved Virginia

(17:10):
a pit team that's dangerous, So Georgia Tech team that's dangerous, obviously,
a Miami team that's dangerous. Clemson's obviously down. So I
think that's why people are looking at this conference as gettible.
But the number of teams that can either score forty
or keep a team team down SMU was in the
championship game last season. Like, there is a pretty high
floor in this conference. So just to immediately look at

(17:32):
this conference as like gettable if you're a Florida State fan,
if you're a Whoever fan, I think it's still a
little bit misguided. There's just not that clear elite power.
Miami is the closest as it gets and they just
lost to Louisvill'd even mentioned Louisville Louisville and SMU. So
I still think it's a tough job. And you're recruiting
against Florida and Miami in state and basically everybody else

(17:54):
who's recruiting the state of Florida at the same time.
But I just don't think it's as like like a
good Florida State immediately wins this conference, like it's been
a minute now.

Speaker 2 (18:05):
Well in the coaching talent has I think gotten better
in the ACC as well. I mean not just because
of James Franklin, but look at what Jake Dickard has
done right away at Wake Forest. I mean, say whatever
you warn about Bill Belichick, it hasn't been there this year.
For sure. It has not been a good UNC team,
but happenning games. Yeah, perhaps there will be some growth

(18:27):
between this year and next. We'll see. I just don't
think to your point, it's the same ACC and people
don't know where to put that. Clemson isn't as good
as Clemson was over the last decade. They weren't as
much a player this year despite my preseason predictions, and
so there's a great bit of uncertainty with who are
the new real players? Who are the top dogs?

Speaker 1 (18:48):
Yeah, and then, by the way, this is all internal,
right that Florida State needs to decide how it's organizing
things internally. What the vision for this program long term
is how they're treating nil and portal stuff. Because you
just keep looking to the outside for answers and the
same thing keeps happening. It's a you problem right at
this point. Yeah, I agree.

Speaker 2 (19:10):
All right, let's take a look at the Verballer Top
twelve pole as well as the AP Top twenty five poles.
So we got some subtle differences. For those who have
listened to this show for a while, you know, I've
been saying this, but the two poles have effectively merged.
They've merged because we have more data. There are some
small differences right now. In the AP pole one through

(19:32):
four is exactly the same. Ohio State, Indiana, Texas, A
and M and Georgia. It's been that way for a minute.
But Oregon went up one, Ole miss went down one,
Texas Tech also.

Speaker 1 (19:44):
Went down one.

Speaker 2 (19:45):
And then to round out your top twelve, we had Oklahoma,
Notre Dame, Alabama, BYU, and Vandy in that order, all
staying put, Miami did bump up one to number thirteen
doesn't matter as much with respect to the playoffs right now,
because this is just the AP pole. If we do
take a look though over at ourverball or top twelve pole,

(20:07):
as I said, just some subtle differences. The top four
is exactly the same. We've got Ohio State, Indiana, Texas, A,
and m and Georgia is you go a little bit
further down though, Oregon also the same at number five.
We've got Texas Tech at number six. In hours, we've

(20:28):
got Old miss at number seven. In ours is voted
by our verbowler community. The rest of the way, it's Oklahoma,
it's Alabama who is ahead of Notre Dame in our poll.
We've got Notre Dame at ten, We've got BYU at eleven,
and then in place of Vandy, who is at number
twelve in the AP pole, overballers have Miami at number twelve.

(20:51):
So very small differences. There wasn't a whole lot of
movement that anybody should have expected as a result of
what we saw in week thirteen. The biggest game, I
think think in terms of playoff ramifications was probably what
went down with the Georgia Tech pick game, just because
the acc right now is kind of a hot mess
in terms of who's going to win that, who's even
going to get into the game, And we could talk
through that over the course of the week. But how

(21:15):
would you have voted? I don't know if you cast
your ballot before I pulled the results here full disclosure,
But how would you have voted relative to what I
sent you earlier?

Speaker 1 (21:25):
Here?

Speaker 2 (21:26):
With how this fort ball or top twelve ended up
shaking out because I had some differences on mine.

Speaker 1 (21:31):
Well, what were your discrepancies? You mentioned, you know, a
chain shatter near the top.

Speaker 2 (21:35):
Yeah, I mean we've talked about some of this before.
This isn't all that different. I have A and M
still at two over Indiana. Okay, it is like picking
your favorite child. Okay, they are very very close in
my book, I've been impressed with A and M down
the stretch. I feel like I've seen real growth there.

(21:57):
Not that Indiana hasn't shown growth in their own right,
but right, other than the first half against South Carolina.
Other than the first half, yes, other than the first half.
I'm given the nod to Texas.

Speaker 1 (22:07):
Am.

Speaker 2 (22:08):
I also had Georgia at four. I also had Oregon
up at number five. I put Notre Dame at six,
and that's probably the biggest bone of contention with my
ballot versus other people's ballot.

Speaker 1 (22:24):
Why Notre Dame at six instead of All Miss.

Speaker 2 (22:27):
Also, I am probably terribly biased with this, but I
have at least been consistent in that I get that
there are schedule arguments. I get that there are a
whole multitude of ways that you could order your teams here.
I have said from the very beginning, I'm going based
on eye test, and Notre Dame has been very good

(22:47):
at the eye test. Even though they haven't played the
stiffest of competition, they've been very good at that. Case
in point, look at what happened this weekend against Syracuse
seventy to six. So I just think Notre Dame has improved.
As I try to compare them with some of the
other teams on this board, I think they're better than
Texas Tech. I think they could beat Ole miss. I

(23:09):
definitely think they would beat Oklahoma. I'm not so sure
about Alabama, but I feel like Alabama is one dimensional
enough on offense that Notre Dame would be able to
take them. And I feel really good about their chances
if push came to shove against the school like BYU
or against Miami if they would play again. I know
Miami won the first game, but this is a different

(23:30):
Notre Dame team now, as I've said time and again,
so I understand people are gonna hear this and they're
gonna say, well, of course you're putting Notre Dame that high.
You're a Notre Dame fan. That is fair criticism. Okay, huh.
But if I am going one by one by one
by one who I think can beat whom, I feel
like I would put Notre Dame right there with Oregon
five and six.

Speaker 1 (23:50):
Okay, I think the case for Notre Dame and I
don't care if Notre Dame is in this playoff or not.
I know you, you're a longtime fan. I don't think
the case for Notre Dame is all that complicated. I
know teams from you know, the SEC or ACC. You
need that boogeyman in the Big ten or out West
or you know, somebody to say, here is our enemy.
We need an enemy. We need to you know, zero

(24:12):
in on somebody and get them in the crosshairs and
prove why they don't belong in this conversation whatsoever. I
get it with Notre Dame. Why you'd be upset because
of the games they lost early on Those were the
games against the two best teams on their schedule. Sure,
I think we agree, Yeah, right, so they have absolutely
they have the opportunity. They lost by a combine four points.

Speaker 2 (24:30):
Yep.

Speaker 1 (24:31):
And I'm willing to say we should count head to
head Notre Dame Miami. We should. But it was in August.
It can't be like it happened last week. Like, you
have to weigh these things differently, as seasons change and
schemes change and the roster usage changes. You have to
do that in both good and bad ways. And so
I just don't think a win in late August means

(24:52):
the exact same as a win in early November. Notre
Dame scheduled. I think pretty well what they could control,
which is basically all of this other than you know,
get a rotation of ACC teams. It's ten Power Conference
quote unquote Power Conference teams, and then the two other teams,
one of which was in the playoff last year and
the other one is still in contention for the American
If I have all that correct, They did not book

(25:13):
a neutral site game. They did not book an FCS opponent.
So the way that they've handled business, I believe their
strength of record is in the top ten. So it's
how you play against who you play. They have not
won a single game by single digits. I just think
you got to you gotta look at the context of
this and that Notre Dame is playing on an extremely
high level. They just throttled a pit team who in

(25:35):
turn throttled on offense, a team that we had penciled
in for playing for the ACC. I don't think transitive
stuff is worth a ton, but stuff that's happened recently,
I think it's worth a conversation. So the case for
Notre Dame is a top ten, top eight, top nine,
having them ahead of Alabama, it's okay with me. Like
these are two Like if you want to be upset

(25:57):
about it, I would look inward first at what Miami
could control it, what Alabama could control. Right, Alabama needed
a miracle to beat South Carolina. Notre Dame hasn't needed
any miracles against average or below average teams, have they?
Maybe I missed one, No, but no, I just I
think you got to look at the full the full plate,
not just like a matchup, and I don't think the

(26:20):
case for Notre Dame is all that difficult.

Speaker 2 (26:22):
Yeah, and for what it's worth, I hate framing this
as a Notre Dame versus Miami conversation. I know it's
going to go there. Yeah, of course, But there are
a bunch of other teams now, at least per the
latest run of the College Football Playoff rankings, that are
also standing in the way of Miami. I don't necessarily
agree with that, but I understand where we're at. So

(26:47):
if you're a Miami fan right now, what you're rooting
for is a big one over pit, a rank pit,
which could give you a little bit of a boost.
I think you're hoping that a school like BYU obviously
would help if they lost this week. But even if
they didn't lose this week and they ended up losing

(27:09):
a week from now against Texas Tech, should they play
a rematch in the Big twelve championship game, you'd obviously
like to get BYU out of there. If you're Miami,
clearly you got to beat a rank pit and hope
you get a little bit of a boost there to
maybe jump the likes of Utah, who's also in front
of you. I do think there is possibility here for

(27:33):
Miami to still work their way back into this thing. Obviously,
Auburn beating Alabama in rivalry be a pretty big deal.
But Oklahoma loses to LSU, that'd be a pretty big deal.
So there are options here. If you're a Miami fan.
The problem is something that you have said time and again.
It's a parlay. It's a parlay. You need a couple
things to happen, not just one. So they still have

(27:56):
a much better chance as an at large than they
do as a conference champion. They could definitely find their
way into this thing, and we've seen crazy results on
rivalry week, so it would not at all surprise me
if we saw that again. But they need a parlay.
They need to beat Pitt. They need a few teams
in front of them to lose either this week or

(28:17):
next and hope that the strength of a win over
the Pitt Panthers can carry them into the field. Right now,
the way that this is setting up, you got to
be inside the top ten. You got to be inside
the top ten because two of the twelve are going
to come from outside the top twelve. The winner of
the ACC whoever wins and gets the represent that one

(28:39):
spot is the representative as the G six. So that's
the lay of the land for the Miami Hurricanes. They're
very much on the outside looking in. Stuff gets weird
here in rivalry week and conference championship week, then maybe
it's a different conversation. But in terms of what they
can control, they've got a big one on Saturday against
pitt They got to start by winning that one.

Speaker 1 (28:58):
Yeah. The interesting thing too is I read our friend
Bill Connolly at ESPN talking about this that you know
a lot of people love chaos. The chaos might not
come from like a ton of upsets rivalry week. Now,
a ton of upsets actually make clarify things in a
much easier way for the committee. It's probably a mix
of like a couple upsets and then everybody else taking

(29:19):
care of business is what throws this into like a
true mess because like we haven't even mentioned like Michigan
has an opportunity to win the Big ten and swipe
a playoff spot. Like there are a number of different
scenarios in which this thing gets real weird, and a
lot of it just comes from chalk and that's what
makes this weekend super interesting. Well, and I'll talk through

(29:40):
some of that.

Speaker 2 (29:41):
I have some of that jotted down here as we
get into previews, because more to the point, chaos is fun.
But I do think there is some more subtle chaos
that could go down in Rivalry week that could really
change the way that we're looking at the postseason and
a lot of what's to come here over the next

(30:01):
six weeks.

Speaker 1 (30:03):
Yeah, I agree, can't wait right in Sali verbot gmail
dot com.

Speaker 2 (30:06):
Let us know your thoughts on the ballots, let us
know your thoughts on my ballot, on Dan's comments, We
welcome it all, even if you don't agree. Just kind
of be nice, don't be a dick. Yeah, and we'll
accept it proudly. Leave a comment wherever you are out there,
be it on YouTube or Spotify or any of the

(30:27):
apps that allow you to do so.

Speaker 1 (30:28):
We'd love to hear from you.

Speaker 2 (30:30):
We do read all of that stuff, even if we
don't respond, because we just like to keep our finger
on the pulse, so we'd encourage you to keep on
doing that. The only other bit of housekeeping here before
we jump into three big previews.

Speaker 1 (30:42):
Yes, run the board.

Speaker 2 (30:45):
It is not the last week of Run the Board
our pick them game, but it is arguably the biggest week.
Rivalry week is always kind of the biggest week for
Run the Board. So we are going to do something
that we have never done before in terms of prizing. Okay,
this game is only available to people who sign up
and pledge on Patreon as either a certified or a

(31:06):
premium verballer. So we're gonna do the normal thing that
we've been doing. Once a month we give away a
big five hundred dollars gift card to something. We're gonna
do that again, big gift in its own right, Right,
it's a big gift.

Speaker 1 (31:19):
Yes.

Speaker 2 (31:20):
In addition, though, Dan, we are going to give away
something that we have never given away before.

Speaker 1 (31:26):
Oh man, this pony. Tell me it's a pony tie.

Speaker 2 (31:29):
I would love to give away a pony. I don't
know what the shipping would cost, right. This is something
within the verballer hood that I would say is a
little bit more tangible and perhaps a little bit more valuable. Also,
it was your idea, would you care to explain?

Speaker 1 (31:45):
Yeah, we're offering a golden ticket you get to tour
Ties House. It's sort of you treat it like a
B and B. Now we're offering a golden ticket, a
soliverbal golden ticket to if you are able to win
this week of Run the BA. You get the what
it's five hundred dollars visa card, yep, five hundred bucks
ahead of the holidays. You can do a lot with that.

(32:07):
And then you also get to just skip the line
and get a seat, obtain a seat on the Solid
Verbal Board and help to make decisions for the solid
verbal verballerhood and solid verbal universe at large. And this
is zoom calls. This is you know you have some

(32:29):
thoughts about Ty, you can tell him to his digital face.
You get to wheeld power in a way that you
wouldn't otherwise unless you were able to finish in the
top five of Run the Board in the season long competition.
A golden ticket to appear on the Solid Verbal Board.
I believe we send plaques. I believe Ty will write
you letters of recommendation for a new job. We have

(32:51):
anything you need.

Speaker 2 (32:52):
We had somebody once put it on as that's God's
honest truth.

Speaker 1 (32:57):
So if somebody is not poking around to see what
an appearance on the Soliverable Board actually consists of you
can do that in earnest and by the word stand.

Speaker 2 (33:06):
I haven't even broched this subject with you yet, but
we're all friends here.

Speaker 1 (33:10):
Let's just bring it up.

Speaker 2 (33:11):
Okay, people on the existing board, we've been promising this
for a while. There will be an email in your
inbox before the end of this week scheduling our season
end board meeting in Aruba.

Speaker 1 (33:24):
Right, is that what you said?

Speaker 2 (33:26):
You can go to Aruba if you want. I don't
got the budget for Ruba right now, and we don't
have the budget for Aruba for the entire board. But yeah,
wherever you are, current board can be part of that conversation.
I would be willing to entertain making the Golden Ticket
part of that conversation as well. Oh, just to establish
a little bit of continuity when the board turns over

(33:46):
at the end of the year.

Speaker 1 (33:48):
Yeah, of course. Oh that's interesting. Are there any sort
of corrupt ideas that you might have that like you
could sort of do like a an no show job
offer or sort of a no bid contract situation for
a board member. I don't know what that entails exactly, No,

(34:08):
but either I'm willing to look the other way if
you come up with any ideas for board corruption.

Speaker 2 (34:13):
All right, well, if we want to go full sec
with this thing, we can do it. Yeah, of course
you and I could talk about it, maybe offline, but
this is what the stakes are for. Run the board again.
If you go to solid verbal dot com, you can
find a link to our patreon. You can also go
to for bawlers dot com. You can just go to
Patreon dot com slash solid Verbal. Whichever you are l

(34:35):
you prefer, we'll get you over there. Sign up as
a certified as a premium for baller. I think they're
going to activate the game a little bit later on today.
It's twelve games against the points spread. We're going to
talk through all of these games in some way, shape
or form, starting with the games on Saturday. So the
games that we're going to preview today are all on Friday.

(34:55):
We want to give you an extra day, you have
Black Friday to get those picks in as well, starting
on Saturday, running all throughout the day. That's when the
twelve games are that you're gonna have to pick.

Speaker 3 (35:04):
Yes, correct, Dan Rubinstein speaking of previews, damn time out
of the week, we got three games, maybe we got
three games? Yes, sir, before we do previews on a
week like this, an important disclaimer to the verbulerhood. I

(35:30):
want you to remind the fine folks out there what
we do on Rivalry Week.

Speaker 1 (35:37):
You stretch your shoulder, you stretch your lats, you stretch
your traps, you do some squats, maybe loosen the wrist
up a little bit, and you gotta throw those records out.

Speaker 4 (35:48):
Hydrow them out the window, get them out of here,
activate those glutes, whatever needs to happen so that you
are launching those records with hef and reckless abandon My
problem with picking games.

Speaker 2 (36:04):
On Rivalry Week is always that I'm a bit of
a romantic m you know, and I think a lot
of the people that listen to this show are probably
in the same boat. We love college football for the pageantry,
for the chaos sometimes when we get it, and Rivalry
Week is sort of a collection of both things, you know.
It's where they both meet and merge, and it makes

(36:25):
this week as special as it can be. I don't
know if we're going to see the upsets this week.
I've got a bunch of scenarios jotted down here that
I think could have a real impact on the playoffs
could have a real impact on just how we view
teams moving forward, both through bowl season and into the offseason.
I had a bunch of stuff written down here, not
just for this part one, but for what we're going
to record and put out tomorrow as well.

Speaker 1 (36:48):
But I'm excited.

Speaker 2 (36:49):
I'm going to try not to be too much of
a romantic but it's just so hard when you've got
games like these.

Speaker 1 (36:56):
It's so hard.

Speaker 2 (36:58):
Let's start high noon on ABC. It is Ole Miss
minus seven on the road against Mississippi State Dan. They
call this one the Egg Ball. They play for the
Golden Egg Trophy. Of note here, the main storyline surrounding
this game is not the game. It is what's going

(37:19):
to happen after the game. Okay, So, if you have
not been following the Lane Kiffins saga, which maybe we
could have talked about in the very beginning, but I
saved it until now. The athletic director at Ole Miss,
Keith Carter, expects that there will be an announcement about
Lane Kiffen's future with Ole Miss on Saturday, November the

(37:39):
twenty ninth. Hmm, I wonder what that means. My sense
is that he's gone Otherwise they just would have came
out and said, hey, he's coming back. They don't need
all the fanfare for that. But this is Lane Kiffin,
So who the ell knows he is? Currently, as you know,
the top target for pretty much every opening but namely
both LSU and Florida. Will he won't he? That's the

(38:05):
first thing. The second is, I think what we're going
to get after this game is some clarity, more to
your point earlier about how Ole Miss even fits into
the playoff. Assuming they're a playoff team, they've got like
an eighty one percent chance of getting in. They can
still technically get into the SEC title game. They would
need to win this one. They would need for Texas

(38:25):
to beat Texas A and M. They would need for
Auburn to knockoff Alabama. So if they hit that parlay,
then we could be talking about Old Miss in the
SEC title game, or they could just win the egg Ball.
They could lock in a home game in the first
round of the playoffs, which I think is the better option,
but multiple ways. Now, again, eighty one percent chance for
Ole Miss to get in. Here on that point though,

(38:49):
one final statement, then I'm gonna kick it over to
you please. I want to mention this again because I
don't think I have been clear enough as I go
through my little playoff chaos scenarios. Having a first round
by is a perk. Yes, mould agree on that that's
a perk. That's the intention, Yeah, the intention is it's

(39:10):
a perk. I would also add that teams on buy
in the first round of the college football Playoff are
currently on a four game losing streak. It didn't go
well last year. I think the value in this tournament,
maybe if you're a better maybe if you're just a
fan of a team, is on being the number five
or the number six seed, and I want people to

(39:32):
commit that to memory. If you're the number five, if
you're the number six seed, you a get your buy
a week early because you're not playing in a conference
championship game in all likelihood, especially if you're old Miss b.
You lock in the playoff game against a team outside
of the top twelve, and that's important here. You're likely

(39:55):
playing the ACC champion that could be the twentieth best
team in the country, or you're playing somebody like Tulane,
both of whom I think you'd feel pretty good about.
And you get that game right home. And on top
of it, if you win that game, you're likely getting
the loser of the Big Ten championship or a school
like a Texas Tech. In my estimation, right Indiana, if

(40:18):
you're all missed, you might like your chances against Indiana.
I haven't had a chance to preview that one, but
I still think it's better than playing Ohio State. You
get a guy at a school like an Indiana. You
might get a school like a Texas Tech who you
also feel like you match up well against. I think
that is a decidedly better draw than having to play
Ohio State or Texas A and M the next round
of this thing. I could also be wrong, but this

(40:40):
is the way I've been looking at it now for
a few weeks running, and it feels like with each
passing week that becomes a little bit more true.

Speaker 1 (40:46):
And we should say, by the way, I don't want
to make this whole show about playoff and playoff possibilities
and looking backwards looking forwards, that the way the top
four is determined has changed. So last year's zero to
four record includes teams that were not ranked in the
top four. Boise State this season, yeah, I mean Boise State.

Speaker 2 (41:05):
Arizona State. Both of those teams were in the top
four in last year's bracket, and neither of them in
the current iteration would have be in the playoff, but
they certainly would not be getting a first round by.

Speaker 1 (41:18):
Right, and so yes, and it was Georgia winning the
SEC Oregon taking on Ohio State after Ohio State had
one of the weirdest losses ever and everybody knew Ohio
State was one of the best teams in the country.
So maybe last year was just a weird unicorn year.
But I think I hear what you're saying, and I
think just because of the timing of it all and
the amount of time off, I still agree with you.

(41:41):
But it is a nothing sample size, just one year.
But I'm still with you, and you know, we also
have and we'll get to this momentarily, Like we have
a Georgia team who's already done with their SEC schedule
and so they don't really have any calculus in terms
of like what they do this week affecting their chance
or not getting not getting a chance to play for
the SEC Championship game, which also kind of seems like

(42:03):
a long shot. I think for Georgia to play in
the SEC Championship game. Weirdly enough, as they seem like
one of the best teams in the country right now.
So yeah, the calculus is going to change immensely. I
think the big thing is you just don't want that
second loss. You don't want to be lumped in with
a lot more teams now in a decision making process,

(42:23):
if you're Georgia, if you're Old miss whoever, I think
that's where we are. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (42:27):
And by the way, speaking of stakes, not to overlook
Mississippi State, but if Mississippi State wins this game, they're
going to a bowl. It's huge, which would be a
very big deal.

Speaker 1 (42:36):
Again, the over under was three and a half.

Speaker 2 (42:37):
I've said it till I'm bull in the face here.
But they're one of the better better stories in college
football this season because of the success that they've had.
They've been dangerous, they have been fun to watch, they
have been legitimately dangerous. Absolutely, there are stakes on both
sides of this one, Dan, where do you come down
on this matchup?

Speaker 1 (42:59):
It's a weird one to previ because you don't know
what is going on at Ole Miss right that even
something could come out the morning of something could leak
and then the ole Miss team finds out that Lane
Kiffin's going to take your pick of whatever school. I mean,
there are job openings that we might not even know
about at time of recording that Lane Kiffen knows about
and might be interested in. So that's something too to consider.

(43:21):
The game is on the road, right, it's Ole Miss
in Starkville, that's correct, So it's going to be a
huge wave of negative emotion surrounding Lane Kiffen and his
future behind the ole Miss sideline. This game is already
a game that's fraught with a ton of emotion and vitriol.
I like Ole Miss here. I don't know if I

(43:44):
like the points. I feel like this is going to
be I mean, this game is always like feels like
a strange game. As soon as a team seems like
the obvious better team contender team to win by fourteen
to twenty four points whatever, then it's a three point game.

Speaker 2 (43:58):
No.

Speaker 1 (43:58):
There just seems to be that kind of weirdness, especially
when that team that favorite is on the road. I'm
going to take the points here. I think both of
these teams will be able to run and I in
those types of scenarios when you're able to control some
of the game on the ground, you're controlling clock, you're
keeping defenses on the field, and then fourth quarters become

(44:21):
wild cards. And so in that situation, I think I
like Ole Miss to win close, but I'm happy to
take the points. And look you, my creto of taking
a good defense at home as a dog. Mississippi State
does not have a good defense. They're just a lot
more competent than they've been. So I'm gonna ta Mississippi
State to cover this game, to pop some big plays

(44:44):
against this Ole Miss defense, be it on the ground,
be it through the air, whatever. I just think we
have a back and forth game in front of us.
I think the college football guys are going to say
egg Bowl and Lane Kiffin's job future is in doubt.
We're not giving you a routine game. There's just zero chance.
I believe in the higher powers of this sport, and
I don't think there's any way we get like, oh, yep,

(45:05):
ole Miss won twenty eight fourteen and they just look
like the better team. I just don't see that as
anything that's going to be in the cards.

Speaker 2 (45:11):
Yet. Normally I'd say, oh, Miss is like fourteen to
seventeen points better than Mississippi State, right, But my hesitation
is the distractions because of lane, because of the fact
that this is in Starkville. This is just the fourth
count of four road games this season for Old Miss,

(45:34):
and each of the previous three were one score affairs.

Speaker 1 (45:38):
And Mississippi State has been very good against the.

Speaker 2 (45:39):
Points bread seventy three percent against the point spread something
like that. So Vegas has had a hard time getting
a fix on the Bulldogs this year. Based on the
numbers that I've got in front of me, this is
a question of whether Mississippi State can stop the run
or stop Trinidad Chambliss from killing them using the run.

(46:01):
I think this looks like a very big game for
one of those two guys, probably not both, but Trinidad
Chambliss Kawan Lacy, one of those two guys is gonna
eat in this game. And that's why I like All
Miss to win and cover this point spread because to
your point rivalry. Game on the road, I like having
that good matchup on the ground that can dictate the tempo.

(46:22):
I think that's a big advantage for Ole Miss here.
If they do need to pass, they're also very good
at passing too. Let's be real about Trinidad. Chambless has
been outstanding. There's a good matchup there as well, in
that Mississippi State likes to sit in his zone about
sixty percent of the time all miss as a passing offense,
fourth best passing team nationally against the own coverage, so

(46:44):
that tends to work to their advantage as well. I
just I like to lean on the teams that have
what I think is a definitive advantage on the ground
in a rivalry spot, because hey, hostel setting on the road,
it's easy to make opposing quarterback ghosts, right. I would
much prefer having a school on on my sheet here

(47:06):
that is better on the ground and has a good
matchup on the ground. So I'm fair. I'm very mixed
on this one. I am not at all confident. I
think all miss wins. I think they barely cover I've
got it at thirty three twenty five. But I agree
with everything you said. It probably will be weird. We
will see a fair amount of weirdness here, especially because
of the off field stuff that will probably bleed over

(47:29):
into this game to some extent. Thirty three twenty five,
I think Old Miss gets the dub.

Speaker 1 (47:34):
Now here's here's the question. It's either a yes no answer.
Does something get leaked before the game kicks off? Yes,
I say yes as well.

Speaker 2 (47:43):
One hundred percent. It's too big not to It affects
too many things. One hundred percent.

Speaker 1 (47:50):
All right, we agree on mat but not on the
actual pick.

Speaker 2 (47:52):
Here three point thirty ABC. It is Georgia minus thirteen
points squaring off against Georgia Tech. They're playing this game
in Atlantai believe Mercedes Benz Stadium, so technically neutral site,
but Georgia Tech obviously based in Atlanta. There will be
a healthy supply of Georgia fans there. I am sure.

(48:13):
Last year Georgia won this game forty four to forty
four to forty two. Excuse me, in a casual, eight
overtime thriller. You know how it goes Other than Michigan
beating Ohio State. This was one of the big stories
of Rivalry Week a year ago. Forty four to forty two.
Hell of a game on a Friday night. I remember
you and I were tweeting about it, talking about it

(48:35):
was a lot of fun. This year, Georgia will get
into the SEC title game. If Texas beats Texas A
and M or if Auburn wins the Iron Bowl, or
they could just win this game and not get in
and grab the fourth or fifth seed, which I think
works to their advantage. Meanwhile, if you're Georgia Tech, you

(48:57):
need to win, and you need to hit an absolute
acc chaos parlay of col beating SMU Pitt beating Miami,
in Virginia Tech beating Virginia if you even want to sniff.

Speaker 1 (49:08):
A conference championship, right, that's what two interim wins at
Virginia Tech and Cal.

Speaker 2 (49:14):
Yes, yeah, you need a lot to break the point
of this game, though, is not the playoffs. The point
of this game is not the rankings. The point of
this game is clean old fashioned hate. And I think
this one is a big time danger zone for Georgia
right now. I think this is danger territory. Okay, bear

(49:38):
in mind Tech could absolutely affect seating by knocking off
the dogs. I mean, you want to beat your hated
rival always, always. But if we're being realistic here, this
is what they are playing for. They are playing to
make life difficult for Georgia more difficult for Georgia, and
I say beware the team with nothing to lose always

(50:01):
be where that team. I think Tech is gonna empty
the clip, make sure they bring their extra batteries for
Haines King, because he's gonna be out there with reckless
abandon I think we are gonna get one hundred and
ten percent full maximum effort from Georgia Tech to try
and pull an upset here. And that scares me because
Georgia is probably in the playoff one way or another. Right,

(50:26):
So I'm worried about this game, and the points spread
to me is giving me some schemes, because again, that
feels like a lot of potatoes against a team that
can score in Georgia Tech. What do you think.

Speaker 1 (50:37):
I don't like how Georgia Tech's defense is played. You're
gonna talk about emptying the clip. You're gonna talk about
like throwing everything in the kitchen sink at Georgia. Of
course they are, of course they are. It's Georgia Tech, Georgia.
They do that every year, and sometimes they just have nothing.
There's nothing in the sink. And the thing I worry
about here is Georgia gets to play against the Georgia

(50:57):
Tech defense, and Georgia's really well coached, and this game
is not going to be in a hostile place like
it would have been if it were at Bobby Dodd,
and I worry about this Georgia Tech team. Now you
can say this was a look ahead spot last week
against Pitt, Buddy, if you go down twenty eight, nothing
to pit immediately, all due respect to Pitt, There's more

(51:19):
going on than just looking ahead with your defense. There's
more slop inside than perhaps we figured, and we saw
it what against NC State a few weeks ago. I'm
real worried about Georgia Tech in this one. I'm real
worried that maybe Georgia and this was a different Georgia
especially offense last year for a couple different reasons, that

(51:39):
Georgia is going to be taking this game not more seriously,
but they'll have a little bit more of that laser
focus like they would for a huge game, because there
are stakes in a way that there weren't necessarily last
season because Georgia Tech last year was good. But I
don't think Georgia went into this game with that kind
of steely focus. I think the Georgia Tech defense is

(52:03):
the worst thing in this game, and it's not particularly
close we'll see the health wise where Georgia is on
their own defense with CJ. Allen. But even still, I
think they've been playing well enough that this game is
meaningful enough that I mean easier said than done. You
gotta stop Haynes king on the ground and through the air.
But I'm just not there with Georgia Tech in this

(52:25):
moment because their defense, by not playing well, is potentially
going to leave their offense with no choice but to
once again score that many points, but in regulation this year.
And I just think that's a tall ask. What's the
latest number thirteen?

Speaker 2 (52:43):
Let me let me give you a counterpoint, please, So
on the Georgia side, Georgia has played three offenses inside
the top twenty sp plus offense. Okay, they gave up
forty one on the road against Tennessee.

Speaker 1 (53:00):
Long time ago, but yes, long time ago.

Speaker 2 (53:02):
They lost at home against Alabama, and they beat Ole
Miss at home a couple weeks back, but they gave
up like thirty five points.

Speaker 1 (53:10):
Right, I like them. They helped Bama scoreless. They helped
Bama scarless in the second half of Tech game, right
they did.

Speaker 2 (53:15):
I like this Georgia defense. I do, But let's not
pretend that they're the eighty five Bears. This is not
a brick wall. They are ninety fifth in pressure rate,
they are very mortal against the pass, and this still
is a very good Georgia Tech offense. Say what you
will about the defense, and I do not disagree. They've
been a mess.

Speaker 1 (53:35):
But offensively they're very good and they can score. That's true.

Speaker 2 (53:39):
So when I'm looking at this point spread here, and
when I'm talking about danger zone territory for Georgia, I'm
not even so much saying it in terms of like, yeah,
I think Georgia Tech can win. I don't know if
they can win. Can they cover thirteen points based on
what we've seen from the Georgia defense against better offenses.
I think that answer is yes, and I think this

(54:02):
will be fun. I think they will pull out all
the stops to try and keep this one close. I've
got it at forty one to thirty one Georgia, but
I think Tech cover.

Speaker 1 (54:11):
Okay, yeah, my mind went to thirty seven to twenty
eight in Tech covering, but even that might even be
a backdoor situation. I think george is just gonna be
too good in too many phases, like if you have
a pathetic defense at times, it's hard to feel good
about you winning a game against a team of George's caliber.

(54:34):
And I think Georgiea's offense has gotten better over the
course of the season, like this is a good Texas
team or it's a good Texas front. It hasn't been
a great Texas pass defense obviously this season. They've dealt
with some injuries and that came about out of hand. Yeah,
I think Georgia Tech covers. I think they'll still be
able to move the ball some. But again, George has

(54:56):
been playing the runs so well. Yeah that if you
could make Georgia Tech one dimensional and make Haynes king
you and this is not easy. This is easier said
than none. Haines King beat you through the air as
a as a mote, like you're in a great place.
So I think George is gonna take away bread and
butter too often. But yeah, I think Georgia Tech will

(55:17):
still be able to score some. But yeah, I think
this is Georgia by nine to eleven.

Speaker 2 (55:22):
I mean, what you're describing is not unlike what I
described last week when Georgia Tech played Pitt Right, and
my whole thesis for that game, is that Pitt's good
enough to take away enough of the ground assault to
make Georgia Tech a little bit more one dimensional, and
to obviously score when they have the football. I think

(55:44):
that was at least partially right, and I think Georgia
can do a lot of the same stuff. But I
just think I think the stakes in this one are
dramatically different than what we saw we could go, even
though the ACC and the rights to get into the
ACC title game more very much on the line. I
think when you play a rival, right this, a national

(56:04):
power like this, a school that has been in the
running nearly every year for the last decade in Georgia.
Georgia Tech is very much still in this mode of
trying to prove itself like it belongs on that stage.
And we got a great game from them a year ago.
They could have won that game in eight overtimes. I
think we're going to get another good effort from Brent Key.
Any Brent Key squad plays hard, What's.

Speaker 1 (56:26):
What's true, There's gonna be a lot of that Key
sauce tye.

Speaker 2 (56:30):
I just I can feel it come in. I think
this is going to be a fun game. By the way,
did we decide if we're doing the watch along for
this game or for some other game on Friday? Are
we still going to do that? Uh?

Speaker 1 (56:41):
What time is the Texas text A and M game?

Speaker 2 (56:43):
That's a late game at seven thirty.

Speaker 1 (56:45):
Seven thirty eastern. Yeah, I'm just doing bedtime calculations here.

Speaker 2 (56:49):
Yeah, this one's at three thirty. The A and M game,
which we're going to talk about next, is at seven
thirty eastern time.

Speaker 1 (56:56):
Yeah. I think we should do one of these. Yeah,
all right, stay tune that out. We'll do that out.
We'll do one these two.

Speaker 3 (57:00):
Yeah, seven point thirty on ABC.

Speaker 2 (57:06):
Texas A and M Texas Longhorns. Texas A and M
favored by two and a half points. They called this
one the lone Star Showdown. The rivalry is back now
in Austin for the first time since twenty ten. Been
a minute since they played this one at DKR. It
is essentially winning in for Texas A and M. They're

(57:27):
already a lock. I think for the college football playoff.
It is really a question at this point of are
they going to make the SEC title game? And furthermore,
what is the seeding when they get to the playoff.
They can also get in and if they lose, if
Bama and Old Miss loose, so they've got multiple ways in,

(57:50):
but the most obvious would be to just win this
game move on to Atlanta. I don't get this line
at all. Two and a half favor of Texas A
and M on the road, right. I saw that, and
I had to resist every impulse to make this my
lock of the week because I know that's almost an

(58:11):
instant jinx. But did you feel similarly when you saw
two and a half and only two and a half.

Speaker 1 (58:19):
Yes, though it's really difficult to sort of gauge what
Texas is or isn't, and that's Texas's fault, to be clear.
They can score points against not so good defenses and
then they score a single offensive touchdown against the good
defenses they play. And I think Texas A and M
has a good defense and you can get them on

(58:41):
the ground. Texas isn't a team who gets teams on
the ground, good teams especially, and so it's hard to
get a read on why you should like Texas, especially
since Texas's arguable best defensive player, Anthony Hill, is coming
back from injury and Miss I think last week, and
they he's been beat up for a couple of weeks now.

(59:02):
Arch Manning has not been particularly good against good defenses.
Texa A and M is a good defense, They're well coached.
Texas A and M gets better over the course of games.
So the only reason not to like Texas A and
M here really is the reason why Texas A and
M has struggled at times this year, and those are
passing game and first half mistakes from Marcel Reid. We

(59:22):
sought against LSU recently, we sought against South Carolina recently.
Those teams were not able to do anything in the
second halves of those games. As Marcel Reid improved and
Colin Klin made adjustments for this offense. Because I don't
really worry about the defense too much. I think just
that Mike Alco team is going to figure things out.
They've done it both seasons he's been there. I like

(59:44):
A and M here, and I like A and M
in sort of a really reticent way because the game
is in Austin, and when you have a big game,
a big rivalry emotion spot at home with a team
that's capable of being good on both sides of the ball,

(01:00:05):
they're like the best of arch Manning throws maybe the
most beautiful or one of the five most beautiful deep
balls in this sport. I just you got to be
able to depend on something against a top five team.
You're like, we're playing a top five team, and this
is what we're rallying behind to beat them. This is
the aspect of what we do well that we know
we can depend on against anybody. Take your pick. I

(01:00:29):
guess on what that is for Texas because they don't
know either, No, they don't. And so I'm going A
and M here to win by a touchdown. I think
this could be a fun back and forth. I think
we might see a couple of explosion plays from Texas,
but drive to drive what sustains the Texas offense? You
know what sustains the back half of this beat up

(01:00:49):
defense for Texas against A and M. I think it's
a mystery to everybody. And so I'm going A and
M here to win this game twenty seven to twenty
something like that, twenty four to seventeens, somewhat low scoring,
maybe a quick start and then low scoring. But I
have A and M by a touchdown on the road. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:01:07):
I just think if you're picking Texas. Here you're betting
on a hero game for March Manning.

Speaker 1 (01:01:12):
And you're betting on something new that hasn't happened.

Speaker 2 (01:01:15):
Yeah. I mean, I think it's going to take a
hero game from March if they're going to pull this upset.
And the biggest issue I see is this is a
Texas A and M defense that generates a ton of
pressure up front. They are first in the nation in
sacks per dropback. So we often see teams that get

(01:01:35):
a lot of pressure but can't convert that into sacks.
That is not the case with Texas A and M.
They're one of the best havoc defenses. They get a
lot of plays for loss. This is very much a
playmaking defense and that has been a problem for Texas
protecting arch Manning. I read the stat off a week
or two ago. I'm not even sure where it's at now,
but to the point stands. Arch Manning has been one

(01:01:57):
of the most pressured quarterbacks in all the power for so.

Speaker 1 (01:02:00):
Yeah, some of.

Speaker 2 (01:02:01):
It may be Arch isn't as good as people hoped,
but I think a lot of it is that he's
constantly got guys in his face, and Texas A and
M is going to try to force that issue. That
is what this defense is all about. The numbers are
very good against the pass. I think that is doing
in no small part to the fact that they're just
very good at get into the passer. So that to

(01:02:22):
me is a real problem for the Longhorns in this game,
because it's something they've struggled with all season long. Even
though to their credit, I feel like they have improved,
Arch has improved. We have definitely seen some growth on
the Texas side. But I just not enough in this
capacity to make me feel good about this matchup here

(01:02:43):
two and a half points. I did think about making
this a lock. I still might come back and make
it a lock when we do our part two. I've
got it at something like thirty one to twenty Texas
A and M. I think they went on the road
and I get you know a lot of emotion. Good
defense at home, right these Is it a good defense? Well,

(01:03:04):
I don't know this moment. It's a better defense, but
I think it's an open question as to how good
that Texas defense is. Yep, So I'm on thirty one twenty.
I like A and M to win this one, to
go undefeated into the College Football playoff after the SEC Championship.
We'll see how they do in that game. But this

(01:03:25):
is where I'm at.

Speaker 1 (01:03:26):
Yeah, the only thing that gives me a little bit
of pauseitive and I just don't know if Texas falls
under this is Texas A and M schedule is one
that like they've just played a lot of teams nowhere
near the top of the end.

Speaker 2 (01:03:37):
I know you're not wrong, man, I was looking at
that too, and that that was one of the things
that caused me to pump the brakes a little bit
on right, being too overly aggressive on Texas A and M.

Speaker 1 (01:03:49):
And so Texas not that they are this hugely successful
team relative to expectations, relative to why don't they have
something that they do excellently well every week? They're different.
They're different than playing against MISSOO or South Carolina or
you know a week LSU this season. They just they

(01:04:10):
just are. And that's what gives me a little bit
of pause. That this game is in Austin, there is
you know, Texas is motivated on like three different levels here,
right that like there's the arch factor that all can
be forgiven. If he scores thirty five points in a
fourteen point win for Texas against A and M at home.
With some of his struggles this season, with some of

(01:04:31):
Sark's frustrations with some of the frustration with the offensive
line and the running game, the past defense and overcoming
injuries and depth concerns on the secondary, that Texas is
just going to lay everything out there. They're not focused
on anything else. They need help to get to the playoff, right, So.

Speaker 2 (01:04:48):
I mean it's it's virtually impossible for Texas to get
into the playoff.

Speaker 1 (01:04:51):
Right, They need a crazy amount of help to get
into any sort of large conversation speaking of So yeah, right,
So Texas is just this is the entire season from physical, emotional,
spiritual place, and they're at home and they have game changers.
Now that units aren't game changing units, but like they've
got speed on the outside, they've got talent on defense, obviously,

(01:05:14):
especially in the front of that defense. They're healthier at
safety than they were earlier in the season. Like, there's
a lot still going for Texas to do something that
they haven't been able to do, which has put everything
together against a really good team. But again, you're banking
on the mysterious, if that's what you feel, and I
just I can in this moment, So yeah, I'm going
A and M here to cover we.

Speaker 2 (01:05:35):
Agree, all right, some of other games here, We're not
going to do a preview of these. We will preview
some on tomorrow's episode, but just to give you the
lay of the land. Other games taking place this weekend
on Rivalry week, you probably know a bunch of these already.
We got the Heroes game between Iowa and Nebraska early
in the day on Friday. Also on Friday, we've got

(01:05:55):
the ram Falcon Trophy, one of my personal favorites, between
Air Force and Colorado State. You got the old Oaken
Bucket between Indiana and Purdue, and of course, later on
nine pm on Fox, you've got Arizona on the road
at Arizona State for the Territorial Cup in a game
that should be fun as hell.

Speaker 1 (01:06:13):
I am really looking forward to the territory and could
have could have real Big twelve championship stakes.

Speaker 2 (01:06:18):
It absolutely could. It absolutely could. We'll talk a little
bit more about what that looks like tomorrow, but for sure,
Arizona State kind of on the outside looking in at
this point. But if we have the weird parlay situation
in the big twelve, which it is the Big twelve
if you could ever rule it out, ASU could be
there potentially, but they need to win first against Arizona.

(01:06:40):
Then as we moved to Saturday, again, no shortage of
Big Slash interesting games. The game is probably where it
starts and ends high noon on Fox. Number one. Ohio
State on the road against Michigan right now at time
of recording an eleven and a half point favorite. Again,
Ohio stayed on a four game losing streak. We've got

(01:07:01):
Miami against Pitt. Miami is on the road about a
touchdown favorite against the Pitt Panthers. We've got Kentucky and
Louisville playing for the Governor's Cup. And we've got Clemson
South Carolina. South Carolina favored by a battlefield goal in
the Paul Metow Bowl. Those ones are all early in
the middle of the day. We got a whole bunch
of other games. Dan, We've got the Battle on the Bayou,

(01:07:22):
one of my other favorite rivalry names between Uel Monroe
and Louisiana. We've got Oregon Washington. I don't know if
there's an official name for that. I saw Cascade Clash.
I don't hear them throwing that one around a whole lot.
But yeah, it's some kind of rivalry. And Oregon only
favored by six and a half points, which is interesting.

Speaker 1 (01:07:40):
Yeah, usually earlier in the season, but it's come to
rivalry week with the end of Oregon Oregon State as
the year ender, and obviously a huge amount of emotion
in this one and huge amount of stakes in this
one as well.

Speaker 2 (01:07:50):
Enormous, absolutely enormous. LSU on the road at Oklahoma. Oklahoma
needs a win here to clinch a spot in the
College Football Playoff. They're a ten point favorite. We got
Vandy and I had a c Tennessee favorite by about
a field goal. That one is a big deal. Misszoo
on the road at Arkansas and the battle Line rivalry
always a fun matchup, and of course they're playing for

(01:08:10):
Paul Bunions as Paul Bunions ax wis consin Minnesota. Wisconsin's
come on last couple weeks looking a little bit better
about a field goal underdog going on the road to Minneapolis,
UCLA and UCLA, UCLA and USC excuse me, I'm playing
for the victory Bell and Florida Florida State in the

(01:08:31):
Sunshine Showdown. And then the closed things out a hodgepodge
of other games, the Commonwealth Cup between Virginia Tech and Virginia,
the Iron Bowl between Alabama and Auburn, the Land of
Lincoln Trophy being played at seven point thirty on Fox
between Northwestern and Illinois, the Battle for the Fremont Cannon

(01:08:51):
another one of my personal favorites between UNLV and Nevada. Nice,
and then in the late late late window. I can't
believe they did this to me. But No Dame a
thirty three point favorite on the road against Stanford, Fresno
a field goal favorite against San Jose State for the
Valley Trophy, and Wyoming against Hawaii Hawaii favored by ten

(01:09:13):
and a half points. Is it the Penny Olo Trophy?
I believe that is how you say it. I am
not sure, but one of the lesser known trophies in
college football that I'll talk a little bit more about tomorrow.

Speaker 1 (01:09:25):
Awesome, cam, Like, Look, if we just gave you Friday,
this is my QVC pitch. If we just gave you Friday,
you'd say to yourself, what a weekend?

Speaker 2 (01:09:35):
Oh games totally.

Speaker 1 (01:09:37):
And what are we doing? We're throwing in Saturday for
the same price we're throwing in a ridiculous amount of
college football. So all my message to you, tie and
message to everybody, you gotta pace yourself. Yeah, don't go
hog wild with the leftovers on Friday as the game start.
Have some just don't go crazy, because maybe catch a

(01:09:57):
workout Friday morning, Maybe catch a workout Saturday morning, catch
a power nap because you're staying up late to watch
the solid verbal at midnight Eastern time Saturday night. Reviewing
all of this ahead of the committee's announcement on Sunday, Well,
I guess that would be the following week. Excuse me,
but you got to pace yourself because yes we have
the following week, Yes we have conference championship week, and
yes there's gonna be a late night show after that one.

(01:10:19):
So this next weak ish is going to be enormous.

Speaker 2 (01:10:26):
Squats, do some crunches. It's a test of your metal
as a fan, is what it is.

Speaker 1 (01:10:31):
I agree.

Speaker 2 (01:10:31):
What I would suggest is not illegal, but somewhat diabolical.

Speaker 1 (01:10:37):
Greenies. Is that what they call in baseball.

Speaker 2 (01:10:40):
I'm not going there with this, Okay, but I'm not
not going there with this. Ido Oh what I would
suggest because the day after Thanksgiving. Look, I don't care.
I don't care if you're hosting. I don't care if
you're out going to a family member's house. Whatever. It
takes a little bit, at least for me in my

(01:11:00):
old age these days sort of wake up to boot
up a lot of times. I meat and stuff I
don't normally eat, not always feeling tip top shape. Right,
So pretty good chance on Friday you're gonna be around
to watch the early slate of games, and there are
a bunch of good ones. But what I would suggest
is maybe mid afternoonish gets like four o'clock window. That's

(01:11:25):
when I want you to load up your significant other
on as much turkey as humanly possible.

Speaker 1 (01:11:32):
Settle Oh, I see where you're going.

Speaker 2 (01:11:34):
I want I want you to induce a good along
a very peaceful slumber.

Speaker 1 (01:11:43):
What if they also like college football?

Speaker 2 (01:11:45):
That will get well? Then I can't you know? Then
then then you should be drinking like liquid IV or
something to keep yourself awake up. Yes, correct, not a
sponsor could be, but I want you if you are
in a situation or the other pe people in the
household don't really want to watch college football all day
for two days running mm hmm. Nice helping of turkey leftovers.

Speaker 1 (01:12:09):
Mm hmm.

Speaker 2 (01:12:10):
Get that nap going middle of the day, middle of
the afternoon, I guess, get that nap going. By the
time they wake up the Lake games, maybe wol have
already started or about to start, and they won't feel
like wanting to go and do anything because after you
wake up from mid afternoon nap A lot of times

(01:12:30):
Dog City, Yeah, yeah, you're just you're just not in
the mood for that.

Speaker 1 (01:12:34):
I agree.

Speaker 2 (01:12:35):
I think that's the move to break up the day.
If you find yourself in a situation where you don't
know if you're gonna be able to watch the games,
but you want to, well, diabolical but totally legal. Yeah,
it's throwing it out there.

Speaker 1 (01:12:48):
And remember to stretch, remember to hydrate. You don't want
to pull a hammy. Jumping up and down on your
couch right you're pacing nervously. You don't want to go
down with a hammy would be the worst possible moment. No,
I think I think we all have this together hundred percent.

Speaker 2 (01:13:00):
So look, those are our picks for Friday, and that's
what you have to look forward to on Friday. As
I said, a couple times. Now we've got a part
two gott to preview all the other games.

Speaker 1 (01:13:10):
It's gonna drop tomorrow.

Speaker 2 (01:13:12):
We're like diverting a little bit from our normal Tuesday
Thursday release schedule because no one downloads anything on Thanksgiving,
so you will get an episode on Tuesday and Wednesday
before the holidays start. And then, as you said, yes,
we will have our midnight live stream recapping all that

(01:13:32):
occurred in rivalry week. You can either tune into that
one live on YouTube at midnight, or you can listen
to the recap bright and early on Sunday morning.

Speaker 1 (01:13:42):
Correct a lot of options.

Speaker 2 (01:13:45):
Dan Rubinstein, We're going to do this again tomorrow. The
video again will look a little bit different, but hopefully
the fine people got what they needed to go about
into the college football world confidently and feel prepared for Friday. Sir,
for that guy all the way over there, my good
friend Dan Rubenstein, for myself, Tie Hilding Band, Thank you
for downloading. If you're listening for supporting, check us out

(01:14:07):
at our Ballers dot com. In the meantime, you know
the drill, stay silent, Peace,

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