Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
As Adam Thelen trade Talk stall, I'm gonna explain on
this podcast why the Minnesota Vikings should give up a
third round pick to acquire the receiver currently in Carolina.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
And it shouldn't even be a question.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
The Vikings should give up a third round pick right now,
even though Adam Thelen is thirty four years old. But
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Five Star Bath Solutions of Minneapolis. All Right, Adam Thielen
Ben Gesling mentioned on his podcast the other day Access Vikings.
Speaker 2 (01:48):
He says, there's.
Speaker 1 (01:50):
Been some discussion about the Panthers wanting a round three
pick four Adam dealing, and speculation or reports have indicated
that the Vikings are willing to give up a fourth
or a fifth, but not a third. And when you
(02:17):
look at it from the outside looking in, of course
the Vikings are not going to give up a third.
Speaker 2 (02:25):
That sounds ridiculous to give up.
Speaker 1 (02:27):
For an aging thirty four year old player with one
year left on his contract, who didn't even have a
thousand yards last year. On the surface, it looks ridiculous.
But I'm going to explain why it's not. The Vikings
should give up a third round pick for Adam Thielen
(02:50):
right now because money isn't an issue. The Vikings have
thirty two million dollars in cap space. It's not like, oh,
you'll try to pay for Adam Thielen and a six
million dollar contract, then you're gonna be over the camp
and then you gotta figure out what you're gonna do
who you're gonna release or you're gonna trade. The Vikings
(03:13):
have the ability right now to trade for Adam Thielen,
and if they.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
Give up a third round pick, who cares?
Speaker 1 (03:23):
Because right now the Vikings have eleven total draft picks
in twenty twenty six, and they have two third round picks.
But that's not even the biggest reason why the Vikings
should give up a third round pick. For feeling, this
(03:44):
is the biggest reason why. You look at the history
of the Vikings' third round picks of the last ten years,
let me read them.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
Off to you.
Speaker 1 (03:57):
Twenty twenty five, typelt them the rap. Our word is
still out on him, but I don't think any of
us are convinced he's going to be great. Twenty twenty four,
no third round pick. Twenty twenty three, mkay Blackman, Oh
they just traded him.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
Twenty twenty two. Brian Osimoa, he's not on the roster anymore.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
Twenty twenty one, Kellen Bond, Chas Sarrat, Wyatt Davis, none
of them are on the roster anymore. Twenty twenty Kim Danceler,
he's not on the roster anymore. Twenty nineteen Finally, the
first serviceable player Alexander Manison. But let's not pretend that
(04:46):
Alexander Manison was irreplaceable twenty eighteen. No third round pick
twenty seventeen, pat Al Fine, huh in me, this is
what you're keeping your third round pick for twenty sixteen.
No third round pick twenty fifteen. The first player that
(05:11):
could really play that you could argue was not replaceable
as far as his talent goes, daneil Hunter. You have
to go all the way back to twenty fifteen to
find a third round pick selected by the Vikings that
(05:36):
could play at the highest level in the NFL. And
that's what you're holding onto your third round pick for
a lottery chance of selecting a guy that could turn
out to be great.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
When you look in the past ten years and only.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
One player has been great, Alexander Madison was solid but replaceable.
This is what you're keeping your third round pick for.
This is why conversations have stalled with the Panthers, because
you don't want to give up a lottery chance of
(06:17):
selecting a player that is legitimate in the third round
of the NFL draft.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
This is utterly ridiculous because.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
Historically the Vikings have not drafted good players in the
third round, and you could go even back further twenty
fourteen Scott Crichton and Jack McKinnon all right, Jared McKinnon solid,
go back twenty thirteen, no pick, twenty twelve, Josh Robinson
(06:58):
twenty twenty eleven to no third round pick two thousand
and nine, Asher At In the last fifteen years of
the Vikings third round picks, one of them has been
a legitimate Pro Bowl player that you can't replace. Two
(07:18):
of them have been okay, Jared McKinnon and Alexander Manison.
This is the truth about draft picks. General managers and
front offices hold their draft picks way too near and
(07:40):
dear to their heart because draft picks are the ultimate
hope play. You can sell it to your ownership group,
you can sell it to your fan base. You can
say we got this guy, we believe in this guy,
and we think he is the next game changing NFL talent.
(08:01):
But their reality is is it is hardly ever true.
And look at the Minnesota Vikings this season and look
at their recent decisions.
Speaker 2 (08:16):
Kevin Seaffort on Twitter.
Speaker 1 (08:19):
Seven members of the Vikings twenty twenty five undrafted free
agent class have made the initial roster. Some possible explanations,
all of which can be true. Team is holding through
the first way for wire to get them out of
the practice squad. Team has run a bout against his
(08:40):
cash budget, and they are good players. But the fact
is seven players of the Vikings undrafted free agent list
in twenty twenty five have made the original fifty three
man roster, so Quessey has had better luck signing players
(09:08):
from undrafted free agency then he has actually selecting his
player in the NFL draft rounds one through seven.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
That is mind blowing as far as I see it,
the Vikings should trade every single.
Speaker 1 (09:28):
Pick besides their first round pick and just sign guys
off of the undrafted free agency wire and shoot your
shot with those guys, because this is ridiculous. The Vikings
are haulding out hope for a third round pick who
(09:49):
isn't going to be able to play, or at least
in all likelihood isn't gonna be able to play. Here's
my guarantee, this is mine, Tim Bom. We're gonna look
back on the twenty twenty six NFL Draft class, and
(10:10):
we are going to look back at that.
Speaker 2 (10:11):
Third round pick and say.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
We held on to this third round pick for this,
Are you flipping kidding me?
Speaker 2 (10:20):
This is the guy we didn't trade Adam Feeling for.
Speaker 1 (10:24):
We held out all for Joe Schmoe made it one
year on the Vikings roster when we could have that Adam,
theeln who knows the Vikings playbook like the back of
his hand and can get instituted into the Vikings roster.
Speaker 2 (10:41):
As if it's nothing.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
He could come in in twelve days when the Vikings
play the Chicago Bears and be ready.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
Just because he's familiar with the quarterback. The Vikings are
placing their value in the wrong spot.
Speaker 1 (10:57):
And I'm fired up about this because that data would
show that the Vikings should give up a third round
pick for Adam Dum and they shouldn't even question it.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
Some people are third round pick. We can't give up
one of those. Why not? Seriously?
Speaker 1 (11:17):
Why not? What are the odds that a third round
pick can play in the NFL? What are the odds
that a third round pick is not a bust in
the NFL. I'm gonna look at up on chat GBT
right now. Okay, take a look at this. What are
(11:38):
the odds a third round pick can play in the NFL.
Let's take a look at what Chad GBT has to
say in this good question. Depends by what you mean
by playing the NFL. General odds for a third round
pick roster chances about ninety to ninety five percent for
(12:00):
third round picks make the roster their rookie year.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Of course, that's going to be true.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Teams invest too much draft capital to cut them early.
Speaker 2 (12:08):
It's true, of course they're going to make their roster
right away.
Speaker 1 (12:12):
Career length the average NFL career is three point three
years overall, but for the third round pick, it's closer
to five to six years.
Speaker 2 (12:19):
Starter odds.
Speaker 1 (12:21):
Roughly forty to fifty of third rounders become at least
part time, part time starters in their careers. Long careers
impact players. Around ten to fifteen percent of third round
picks end up as long term starters.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
Pro bowlers are different.
Speaker 1 (12:39):
That's what you're keeping your third round pick for. You're
keeping your third round pick for a ten to fifteen
percent chance of this player being an actual difference maker.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
This is crazy.
Speaker 1 (12:56):
Can't believe it? I get third round pick? Oh, it's
too much for adamteel one.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
But why it is? The incorrect way of.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
Looking at it because you think, oh, we can't get
it rid of a third round pick one of their superstar.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
What on a ten chance that they're gonna be a superstar?
What not a ten chance that they're gonna be a
difference maker?
Speaker 1 (13:20):
And the fuckings have two third round picks.
Speaker 2 (13:24):
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Speaker 1 (14:28):
I hope I convinced you on this podcast that the
Vikings should give up a third round pick for Adam
dealing the historic nature of success with the Vikings and
third round picks has shown that you shouldn't keep it.
It's all Hope, it's all guests, and it's even a
(14:50):
guest with the first round picks. But anyway, that's the
podcast for today. Thanks for joining the show. Remember to
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