In this episode, host Lisa welcomes John McLaughlin, CEO of McLaughlin and Associates and a seasoned pollster for President Trump. They analyze Trump's current polling status, the loyalty of his core supporters, and the political landscape ahead of the midterm elections. McLaughlin discusses the popularity of Trump's policies, particularly tax cuts, and the importance of maintaining the America First coalition. He highlights the challenges Republicans face, including voter turnout and economic messaging, and stresses the need for effective strategies to sustain political momentum and win future elections. The Truth with Lisa Boothe is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Tuesday & Thursday.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the Truth with Lisa Booth, where we dive
into the issues shaping our nation with unfiltered insight and
bold perspectives. Today we have John McLoughlin and we're now
Polster and CEO McLoughlin Associates joining us. He's also been
a pollster for President Trump and has advised him. So
we're going to break down the latest Where is President
Trump's polling stand today? Are his core voters with him?
(00:22):
We'll also unpack that post Liberation Day dip, how real
is it? And how are his tariffs polling? Plus, so
the midterms looming will compare President Trump's current positioning to
where we was in twenty eighteen. Also what's going to
happen in the midterm elections and beyond that, looking at
twenty twenty eight can the Republican Party keep the America
First Coalition together? Buckle up, We've got a lot to discuss.
(00:45):
Stay tuned for John McLoughlin. John, it's great to have
you back on this show. I don't know if I
have I had you on since Trump won. I know
we had you on before the election. I don't remember.
Speaker 2 (00:59):
It's all a blur.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
Yeah, it's a positive blur. But yeah, a lot, a
lot's changed obviously. I guess we'll start kind of like
big picture, where where does President Trump's approval rating and
polling stand today.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
By the way, my surveys, we ask it differently than
a lot of these other ones. We ask it like
we did in the campaign, where we'll ask to approve
of both his policies and personality just as policies, but
disapprove his personality or disapprove both. And we used it
that way because his policies are more popular than his personality.
(01:38):
He doesn't get a fair shake from the you know,
the left wing legacy media where you know, no matter
what he does, you know, cn AN, MSNBC, you know,
the ABC, the rest of them are attacking him. But
his policies are very popular. So we used his policies
during the campaign to raise up favorable rating and that's
(02:01):
how we won the popular vote and swept the battleground states.
So we still ask it like that. And April twenty ninth, yeah,
we had a survey where he had a fifty percent
approval rating forty five discip group. Now some of the
other media polls are catching up with this, where if
you go to the real clear politics average, you'll see
poles like insire Advantage, grass Mustin Group, grass Musse and
(02:24):
reports Harvard Harris. They're catching up with our poll because
he had a great trip to the Middle East. He's
trying to end the Russia Ukraine War, and he's moving along.
What's fundamental is he's moving along the one big beautiful bill,
which is the Make a Mortal America Affordable Act again,
(02:46):
which the voters know that that will make their lives better,
that we will be able to grow the economy, which
will help them deal with inflation, reduce their concerns with inflation.
They'll have real economic growth again, and they'll have no
tax on tips, no tax on over time, they'll have
the Trump tax cuts will being made permanent. And what's
(03:09):
important about that, By the way, related to your first
question about his joverpool, we just did a poll of
one thousand likely voters for twenty twenty six for the
Club for Growth in thirty five targeted Republican battleground congressional districts,
and there Trump has a fifty five approval rating forty
three disapproval, So you know he's going to help them.
(03:32):
He's the path to define history and winning the midterm elections.
And it's critical that we get his tax cuts passed
because in those districts you actually had forty three percent
of all voters telling us they were not aware that
Trump tax cuts are going to lapse. We did that.
We asked that question nationally for the Chamber of Commerce
(03:54):
in February, and forty nine percent of all voters were
not aware the Trump tax cuts are going to lapse,
and when they do become aware, they absolutely want the
Trump tax cuts made permit. And the Chamber poll nationally
was sixty four to twenty in this poll of the
targeted battlegrounds congressional districts, when you tell them that that
(04:21):
there's going to be a tax increase, because if the
Trump tax cuts lapse, you will have the largest tax
increase in the history of America. It'll be a four
point five trillion dollar tax increase, and for every American
it'll be two thousand dollars more than you're paying in taxes.
And when we ask people, you know, do they support
stopping those tax increase or allowing the taxes to increase
(04:45):
in these congressional districts that the Club for Growth took
seventy six to twelve. They want to stop the tax
increase because after four years of Biden, you cannot take
a massive tax increase because you've been racked by inflation
for four years. You know, your your your gas, your gas,
your food, your mortgage, your rent, your utility bills all
(05:09):
question more than it did four years ago. And people
just just do not need a big tax bill on
top of that.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
It's why. Okay, So I guess one thing I'm trying
to figure out is, you know, obviously, you know you've
worked in politics a long time. We're far out from
the midterms, right, so it's it's hard to really gauge
what's going on at this point in the game. But
we know President Trump won't be on the ballot. We
know that the Democrats approval rating has hit rock bottom.
(05:35):
You know, they've they've had trouble and pulling, but yet
they're leading on the congressional ballot if you look at
the real clear politics average. So what do you make
of that disconnect? And I guess if you were to
read the tea leaves for the midterms today, obviously knowing
that today is just a snapshot in time and a
lot could change. You know, what are you seeing and
(05:58):
kind of how do you read read all that?
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Well, let me get technical on your first with those
polls that please because on our website at mclochlan online
dot com, we track the congressional ballot every month. We
were right in the last two congressionals because we use
a likely voter model and we base it on the
exit poles from the previous elections. Plus you know, voter data,
(06:20):
and we call voters and we contact voters online that
we know are going to vote, and we screen for
likely voters. So we've got a history of being right
and Donald Trump proved it in the last election that
when we won the popular vote, swept the battle, I says,
it's all on our website at McGlocklin online dot com.
But with that, you go to these media polls that
have us losing the congressional ballot. They don't have enough
(06:43):
Trump voters in them. I mean, you go back to
the one hundred day polls when they came out and
they were saying, oh, his job writing's you know, going
way down, et cetera. These are the same polls that
Harris was going to be president. These are the same
polls that there was a Hillary lock, that there was
a Biden blue wave when he only won by forty
four thousand votes in three states. And let me tell
(07:06):
you what they do in those polls.
Speaker 1 (07:08):
Is that intentional?
Speaker 2 (07:10):
Yes, it's intentional. These people are too smart because one
time in twenty twenty election, when when Washington Post ABC
had us down seventeen a week out from Wisconsin, which
was out of three million votes decided by twenty thousand,
they said we were down seventeen. President Trump called me
in the morning and said, what's the matter with that? Paul?
(07:30):
He said, they skewed it against you? And he said
they would do that. I said, sure, they hate you.
They want you to lose. It's just like the Desboine register. Paul.
Speaker 1 (07:38):
Oh my god, I was just thinking that. I'm just
going to mention that going it was.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
I mean that Paul I had to write a memo
for Susie Whiles to so she could give it to
him to tell him it was a bay of poll.
And he was fine with that. But what they did is,
let me tell you, these two recent ones were starting again.
And when you go check the internals and the polls,
when you looked at the New York Times poll, out
(08:06):
of the votes that they had there was thirty seven
percent Trump voters. We won fifty percent of the popular vote.
They've put in a whole bunch of Like there was
eight hundred and forty two in the New York Times poll.
There was eight hundred and forty two Trump voters out
of two thousand, four hundred and sixty four adults that
(08:27):
they interviewed. So they interview adults, they screened down for
alleged registered voters. They could be polling legal immigrants for
all we know. But they only have thirty seven percent
Trump voters. We won by two points, fifty to forty eight.
So they have a bad model, and they're doing it
deliberately because they know for every Trump voter they take
out of the poll, they're taking out a point on
(08:50):
his jobapool. And by the way, ABC Washington Post was
worse because they only had thirty four percent Trump voters
in their poll. So when I see these poles like
Reuter's zipsos, they're not They're less transparent than those other
two poles. They won't tell you who voted for Trump
and who didn't vote for Trump. They hide a lot
of the demographics party, but they're skewing the polls by
(09:15):
diluting them with voter with adults or non voters who
they who they know don't like Trump. Now, our polls
are different that we did. In international poll that we
did April twenty ninth, we had the Republicans ahead in
the generic ballot forty five to forty three among a
thousand likely voters nationwide, and in this poll the Battleground
(09:36):
State Pole for the Club for Growth on the battleground
congressional districts, it was forty eight to forty three. That
would concern me still as a Republican because you're a
year after the midterm, you're the incumbent majority in the House,
in the Senate, and you're under fifty. You need to
get it over fifty. And I'll tell you what's interesting
(09:57):
to me is in twenty sevent in December twenty seventeen,
President Trump called me as he was working to pass
his tax cuts, and I said to him, why did
you do healthcare? First? Healthcare? And he told me he
said Speaker Ryan and Senate Leader McConnell had told him
they needed the savings from healthcare to afford the tax cuts.
(10:19):
And I'm like, I'll tell you who can't afford taxes,
and that's your voters, and they won tax cuts. He
should have done the tax cuts first, because when they
passed it in December, it didn't go into effect until
after the midterm election, and we lost both the House
and Senate and he got impeached. But then when he
was running for reelection, the economy was booming back until
(10:42):
COVID hit, and he created millions of jobs as promised.
Because there's Tax Cut Jobs Act, that's the tax cut
that's going to lapse that helped create these millions of
jobs and get people to earn better pay. The difference
is he's pushing for it now because we're taking a
page out of the two thousand and two midterms. After
nine to eleven, George W. Bush had to pump the
(11:05):
economy full of money so that we didn't go into
a recession, and he also passed a tax cut that
was time to go into effect in the second quarter. Now,
that fall out of the hundred House of Delegates in
Virginia because we were pulling for the RNC chairman Jim Gilmore,
out of the hundred seats, we went up from fifty
two to sixty four because the economy was growing. And
(11:28):
then in the election year we had we picked up
two Senate seats in the midterm elections in two thousand
and two, and we picked up eight House seats and
any time majorities because the economy was growing. So right now,
if we don't, if we don't make the Trump tax
cuts permanent, you will see my friend Steve Forbes says,
(11:53):
you won't just see a recession, you'll see a depression
because of that massive taxire And the Democrats know. The
most interesting part to me is the Democrats have voted
against the budget framework to pass the tax cuts, to
make the Trump tax cuts permanent, every member of the House,
every member of the Senate. So they voted. They're on
(12:15):
record for the largest tax increase in the history of
the United States. And the Republicans are making a huge
mistake by fighting among themselves and not holding them accountable
for that. And President Trump started taking it to them.
He did it at Michigan when he spoke at his rally.
He's been taking the Democrats to task that they want
this tax increase that the Club for Growth poll says
(12:36):
three quarters of the voters in the key districts of
Congress don't want that to happen. So Trump's holding them accountable.
And you saw a break among the Democrats yesterday in
the Senate where they passed a bill unanimously for no
taxes on tips. And so they know that. We know,
(12:57):
like from December, we had a poll seventy one percent
of all Americans support no taxes on tips. So the
Democrats are getting back to the same polls and they're like,
we better hop on board that no tax on tips,
no tax on overtime, no tax on social Security. If
the Republicans stay united and pass their tax cuts, you
may see some Democrats starting to bail out on their
(13:21):
position of being in favor of tax increases versus tax cuts.
And by the way, this is how we beat Kamala
Harris last year in the battleground states. When she was
saying she won a middle class tax cup, but she
was going to let the Trump tax cuts laps. We
just hit her for supporting tax increases because it would
hit small businesses, it would hit farms, farmers would be
(13:45):
hit with a lot more average taxpayers would have paid
a lot more money. If she was elected president, we'd
be real trouble right now if she was elected president.
Speaker 1 (13:53):
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(14:57):
obviously we saw him build a really interesting coalition to
get them past the finish line and the well to
not even get them past the finish line to win
the popular vote. Are those groups still with him? Because
you know, obviously he has created a coalition that looks
much different than previous Republican coalitions. Are they still with
(15:18):
him today?
Speaker 2 (15:19):
His base is still with him. I mean, if you
support him, you know, like, as I'm looking at this, uh,
as I'm looking at the Battleground survey of Battleground Congressional
district survey from the Club for Growth, ninety four percent
of the people that votes were Trump approved the job
he's doing. So it's virtually the same number. It's totally intact.
So if you supported and by the way, our national
(15:41):
number fifty percent approved, that's not his popular voute. So
his base is still with him, and it's rock solid.
There's some voters we could be getting that we're not
getting right now that approve of the job he's doing
but didn't vote for him. And and by the way,
the key groups you're talking about that joined their coalition
(16:04):
to get us to fifty percent. It wasn't the usual
groups we were targeting three years out. We were targeting
Hispanic voters. He got forty six percent of the Hispanic
voter record for Republic and two points sided than George W.
Bush got in two thousand and four. He got twenty
one percent of the African American vote. We were targeted
three years out among African American men, twenty one percent
(16:28):
he got. He won higher percentage of younger voters and
younger voters. He's still doing very well within the polls
right now because it's better than what they have, better
opportunities and a little better life and more hope than
what they were doing with Joe Biden. Plus, we also
did well in the suburbs with suburban women because we
were telling them, you know, Kamala Harris was going to
(16:49):
attach your four to one caves and your homes with
that unrealized capital gains tax. So we were do And
Plus the other thing too is there were cultural She's
like men in girls' locker rooms, in girls sports. That
really drove a lot of suburban moms. A lot of
what I call suburban sports moms. They were coming to
(17:10):
us significantly because of that issue. But going back to
your point about the coalition, we only rented them in
the last election. We don't own those groups. We have
to earn their support now. And the Republicans in Congress
actually lag Trump's approval rating, and Trump they see as
(17:31):
somebody who's fighting for them. The Republicans in Congress, whether
they're in the Senate or they're in the House, to
keep their majorities without Trump being on the ballot, they
need to pass the legislation like this, like this tax
cut bill, make it permanent, grow the economy. They also
need to they need to do other things to make
people's lives easier. And you know, I mean there's some
(17:56):
things there where when you look at what's going on
with the you know, when you look at what's going
on with these cultural issues, whether whether it's immigration, whether
it's you know, man and girls sports, I mean, the
Republicans in Congress need to follow Trump's leads on those
issues to get those groups back because we don't have
(18:17):
those groups right now. When you're looking at the Republican
generic bot of Congress at forty five, we don't have them,
and we need to go get them.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
Well, it's also you know, obviously, historically the party in
charge loses seats in the House in the midterms, and
we saw during twenty eighteen, during President Trump's first midterm,
Democrats were able to gain a net of forty one seats,
winning back the House. I mean, I know the environment
(18:46):
is different today than it was then, but does that concern.
Speaker 2 (18:49):
You at all? It does. I mean, because if we
don't get if we don't have a grown economy, if
we don't keep America at peace and prosperous, if we
have if people are feeling insecure. I mean, the greatest
success President Trump has had so far as absolutely security
the border, supporting illegal criminal legal immigrants. I mean, the
(19:11):
Democrats are defending human traffickers. I know, Sorry, I can't.
It's just it's it's it's unbelievable that they could do that.
But we have them doing that. And Marco Rubio was
great yesterday as Secretary of State when he was rebutting
(19:34):
Center von Holland from Maryland, and uh, you know, so
we have to. And the other part too, is the
mainstream media that doesn't like Trump. They're all in I'm
blaming Joe Biden. Now they've discovered that he was totally incapacitated,
you know, but he left this mess and Donald Trump
(19:54):
was trying to dig us out of the mess of
wars in the Middle East, in Ukraine, and the open
border where you still have millions of illegal immigrants and
many of them criminal. Plus, I mean, in this budget
deal you have the the Republicans have made provisions that
(20:14):
if you're an a llegal immigrant, you shouldn't be on Medicaid.
Why should American taxpayers can't afford their own food every day,
their their own court, their own cost of living, their
own healthcare, why should they be asked to pay for
the healthcare of somebody who came here illegally. So and
that's a very popular provision to have that Medicare reform.
(20:36):
Plus the other is workfair. You've got able bodied adults
who are getting free medicaid at the other taxpayer's expensive
don't have to work, look for work and TENK college
or whatever. You know. We need those workfare provisions because
they're very popular where we have, you know, I mean,
when we in that Club for Growth survey, when we
have sixty eight to twenty three supporter a federal law
(20:58):
that stops states from US state tax payer money to
get Medicaid benefits to illegal immigrants. That's a big number.
And seventy nine to sixteen support requiring able bodied adults
to work, be looking for a job, for attending school
in order to receive taxpayer fund and benefits like Medicaid,
food stamps, or income assistants. So those reforms are critical.
(21:19):
By the way, I heard in this bill from New Gingridge.
He told me that they could get more savings because
the workfare requirement doesn't go into effect until twenty twenty
nine if the Trumps president, who in their minds would
not want workfair to go into effect right now, But
I guess inside the Potomac that makes sense to people.
(21:41):
So a lot of Democrats, we got to put pressure
on them and play offense, hold them accountable for this
there because we don't want to, you know, we don't
want people who aren't working, who could be working, to
be receiving free benefits. And we don't want illegal immigrants
to receiving benefits that Americans can't even afford themselves.
Speaker 1 (21:59):
We've got to take a quick Marciall break more with
John in a moment. One thing I worry about as well,
because President Trump's coalition is just so unique to him.
Can Republicans carry the America First mantle moving forward and
(22:21):
pull a similar coalition together until I was twenty eight?
Speaker 2 (22:25):
They can, but they have to work at it with
these issues, because the key thing is you've seen it
in this year's elections back on April first, when you
had a statewide election in Wisconsin for a conservative state
Supreme Court judge versus a liberal. Donald Trump last November
got one point seven million votes in Wisconsin and won
the state. There was a lower turnout in that election
(22:47):
for that state Supreme Court judge, but the conservative only
got a million votes that got beat. So seven hundred
thousand Trump voters stayed home, and even though they carried
the special elections on the same day in Florida, won
the congressional district in Florida six the congressional districts. Instead
of winning two to one like Donald Trump did and
the previous members of Congress did in those districts, it
(23:11):
was closer. It was more like a twenty point lead.
So you had over one hundred thousand Trump voters in
both districts who voted the previous November to stay home.
So if you don't have an issue agenda like Donald
Trump that motivates people and excites people, this is not
a cult of personality. It's a cult of passionate and
a cult about issues. Well, I wouldn't even call it
(23:33):
a cult. It's more a movement, as the President described
it as a movement. But when he started running, and
we've advised him since twenty eleven, when he first started
looking at running in twenty twelve, but then he put
it off till twenty fifteen. But when he announced in
twenty fifteen, he announced on immigration and traded never looked back.
He's been you know, America first from the get go,
(23:56):
and then during the primaries, when you know, we were
talking at his office. He says, they got to need
the tax cut. I said, yes, you do, and he
said you're writing and I said you're writing in a
Republican primary. Tax cuts among Republicans means economic growth, and
he's a businessman. He understood that better than anybody. And
his tax cut during his first term was probably the
(24:20):
most important success foundational success he had, because that gave
us the economic engine to grow out of the COVID pandemic.
It was already work and he would have won reelection.
Jesus it was me we had In March eleventh of
twenty twenty, I was going into the Oval Office with
Jared Kushner and Brad PARSKEALTONI for Brazil and Bill STEPPI
(24:44):
and others, and we were going to go through the
most recent polling. And the President gets up from the
resolute desk and he says, I think I have to
close travel to Europe because of COVID. That's too bad.
These polls have you winning easily and change, I mean
changed history. But by the way, some of us not
actually think we won that election anyway, but we certainly
(25:05):
won the last one decisively. And economic growth, the promise
of economic growth is the foundation to you know, to
make all these other things happen, just like with Ronald Reagan.
Ronald Reagan well collapse the Soviet Empire because his tax
cuts grew the American economy, and America had the economic
power to win the Cold War without firing a shot.
Speaker 1 (25:29):
You know, before we go, are the tariffs of trouble
spot or you know, how do they pull or are
they being messaged correctlys.
Speaker 2 (25:38):
Are a more complex message because I know that's why
I worry about it. It's, you know, right now, the
President's base is solid. They think they understand what he's doing.
He's trying to save American jobs, keep manufacturing here. They
guess less dependent on foreign you know, foreign products that
we can't rely on because we saw that during COVID
with the supply chain. So they understand what he's doing,
(26:02):
and the majority voters do support him for those reasons. However,
it's more complex because every country is a different deal.
And you know, in a way, I kind of wish
he'd done the tax cuts first and then the tariffs,
but you know, it is what he is. He's doing
what he thinks is right. And he's also it's unbelievable
the energy and the amount of focus from President Trump.
(26:25):
I mean, he's a workaholic. He's just it's it's such
a contrast from Joe Biden and the Biden corruption that
we saw over the last four years. But it's a
but the tariffs, by the way, as you've seen the
markets come back and you've seen you know, America's finances
come back, and the trillions of jobs that he's bringing
(26:47):
back to the country and investments, which will take time
because you've got to build the plants, hire the workers,
et cetera. It takes time. There's long term growth there.
Plus there's also growth from the regulatory relief. But the
foundation is really making the Trump tax cuts permanent again.
Speaker 1 (27:06):
And before we go anything else, I've missed that you
want to get across.
Speaker 2 (27:10):
When you think about it, since last November, since our
conversations last year with the election, I mean, so much
has happened. When you know, you just look at the
potential for success. There's really a strong foundation here for
President Trump to It was a historic election that we
went through. I mean, he's the only person in history
(27:31):
ever to beat the Republican establishment and win the nomination,
and I mean he won the nomination last time in
historic fashion. Nobody else has done that. Ronald Reagan didn't
do it. He just swept through those states. And then
for him to beat the DC establishment and maybe the
international establishment where he was able to win the popular votes,
(27:53):
sweep to battleground states, Nobody's ever done this. And now
you're seeing a historic presidency where you know, he's only
been in office since January and he's he's trying to,
you know, literally bring the world back to you know,
peace and prosperity single handedly. It's just it's just an
amazing feat. So we'll see, we'll see hopefully, hopefully you
(28:17):
can add to his legacy and make the country stronger
and better. So yeah, we'll see.
Speaker 1 (28:24):
I hope so too. All Right, John, we'd love to
have you back on as we get closer to the midterms.
Always appreciate your insight and appreciate you making the time.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
Thank you very much. I appreciate the opportunity and keep
up the good luck that was John McLaughlin.
Speaker 1 (28:36):
I appreciate him for making the time to join the show.
Appreciate you guys at home for listening every Tuesday and Thursday,
but of course you can listen throughout the week until
next time.
Welcome to the Truth with Lisa Booth, where we dive
into the issues shaping our nation with unfiltered insight and
bold perspectives. Today we have John McLoughlin and we're now
Polster and CEO McLoughlin Associates joining us. He's also been
a pollster for President Trump and has advised him. So
we're going to break down the latest Where is President
Trump's polling stand today? Are his core voters with him?
(00:22):
We'll also unpack that post Liberation Day dip, how real
is it? And how are his tariffs polling? Plus, so
the midterms looming will compare President Trump's current positioning to
where we was in twenty eighteen. Also what's going to
happen in the midterm elections and beyond that, looking at
twenty twenty eight can the Republican Party keep the America
First Coalition together? Buckle up, We've got a lot to discuss.
(00:45):
Stay tuned for John McLoughlin. John, it's great to have
you back on this show. I don't know if I
have I had you on since Trump won. I know
we had you on before the election. I don't remember.
Speaker 2 (00:59):
It's all a blur.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
Yeah, it's a positive blur. But yeah, a lot, a
lot's changed obviously. I guess we'll start kind of like
big picture, where where does President Trump's approval rating and
polling stand today.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
By the way, my surveys, we ask it differently than
a lot of these other ones. We ask it like
we did in the campaign, where we'll ask to approve
of both his policies and personality just as policies, but
disapprove his personality or disapprove both. And we used it
that way because his policies are more popular than his personality.
(01:38):
He doesn't get a fair shake from the you know,
the left wing legacy media where you know, no matter
what he does, you know, cn AN, MSNBC, you know,
the ABC, the rest of them are attacking him. But
his policies are very popular. So we used his policies
during the campaign to raise up favorable rating and that's
(02:01):
how we won the popular vote and swept the battleground states.
So we still ask it like that. And April twenty ninth, yeah,
we had a survey where he had a fifty percent
approval rating forty five discip group. Now some of the
other media polls are catching up with this, where if
you go to the real clear politics average, you'll see
poles like insire Advantage, grass Mustin Group, grass Musse and
(02:24):
reports Harvard Harris. They're catching up with our poll because
he had a great trip to the Middle East. He's
trying to end the Russia Ukraine War, and he's moving along.
What's fundamental is he's moving along the one big beautiful bill,
which is the Make a Mortal America Affordable Act again,
(02:46):
which the voters know that that will make their lives better,
that we will be able to grow the economy, which
will help them deal with inflation, reduce their concerns with inflation.
They'll have real economic growth again, and they'll have no
tax on tips, no tax on over time, they'll have
the Trump tax cuts will being made permanent. And what's
(03:09):
important about that, By the way, related to your first
question about his joverpool, we just did a poll of
one thousand likely voters for twenty twenty six for the
Club for Growth in thirty five targeted Republican battleground congressional districts,
and there Trump has a fifty five approval rating forty
three disapproval, So you know he's going to help them.
(03:32):
He's the path to define history and winning the midterm elections.
And it's critical that we get his tax cuts passed
because in those districts you actually had forty three percent
of all voters telling us they were not aware that
Trump tax cuts are going to lapse. We did that.
We asked that question nationally for the Chamber of Commerce
(03:54):
in February, and forty nine percent of all voters were
not aware the Trump tax cuts are going to lapse,
and when they do become aware, they absolutely want the
Trump tax cuts made permit. And the Chamber poll nationally
was sixty four to twenty in this poll of the
targeted battlegrounds congressional districts, when you tell them that that
(04:21):
there's going to be a tax increase, because if the
Trump tax cuts lapse, you will have the largest tax
increase in the history of America. It'll be a four
point five trillion dollar tax increase, and for every American
it'll be two thousand dollars more than you're paying in taxes.
And when we ask people, you know, do they support
stopping those tax increase or allowing the taxes to increase
(04:45):
in these congressional districts that the Club for Growth took
seventy six to twelve. They want to stop the tax
increase because after four years of Biden, you cannot take
a massive tax increase because you've been racked by inflation
for four years. You know, your your your gas, your gas,
your food, your mortgage, your rent, your utility bills all
(05:09):
question more than it did four years ago. And people
just just do not need a big tax bill on
top of that.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
It's why. Okay, So I guess one thing I'm trying
to figure out is, you know, obviously, you know you've
worked in politics a long time. We're far out from
the midterms, right, so it's it's hard to really gauge
what's going on at this point in the game. But
we know President Trump won't be on the ballot. We
know that the Democrats approval rating has hit rock bottom.
(05:35):
You know, they've they've had trouble and pulling, but yet
they're leading on the congressional ballot if you look at
the real clear politics average. So what do you make
of that disconnect? And I guess if you were to
read the tea leaves for the midterms today, obviously knowing
that today is just a snapshot in time and a
lot could change. You know, what are you seeing and
(05:58):
kind of how do you read read all that?
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Well, let me get technical on your first with those
polls that please because on our website at mclochlan online
dot com, we track the congressional ballot every month. We
were right in the last two congressionals because we use
a likely voter model and we base it on the
exit poles from the previous elections. Plus you know, voter data,
(06:20):
and we call voters and we contact voters online that
we know are going to vote, and we screen for
likely voters. So we've got a history of being right
and Donald Trump proved it in the last election that
when we won the popular vote, swept the battle, I says,
it's all on our website at McGlocklin online dot com.
But with that, you go to these media polls that
have us losing the congressional ballot. They don't have enough
(06:43):
Trump voters in them. I mean, you go back to
the one hundred day polls when they came out and
they were saying, oh, his job writing's you know, going
way down, et cetera. These are the same polls that
Harris was going to be president. These are the same
polls that there was a Hillary lock, that there was
a Biden blue wave when he only won by forty
four thousand votes in three states. And let me tell
(07:06):
you what they do in those polls.
Speaker 1 (07:08):
Is that intentional?
Speaker 2 (07:10):
Yes, it's intentional. These people are too smart because one
time in twenty twenty election, when when Washington Post ABC
had us down seventeen a week out from Wisconsin, which
was out of three million votes decided by twenty thousand,
they said we were down seventeen. President Trump called me
in the morning and said, what's the matter with that? Paul?
(07:30):
He said, they skewed it against you? And he said
they would do that. I said, sure, they hate you.
They want you to lose. It's just like the Desboine register. Paul.
Speaker 1 (07:38):
Oh my god, I was just thinking that. I'm just
going to mention that going it was.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
I mean that Paul I had to write a memo
for Susie Whiles to so she could give it to
him to tell him it was a bay of poll.
And he was fine with that. But what they did is,
let me tell you, these two recent ones were starting again.
And when you go check the internals and the polls,
when you looked at the New York Times poll, out
(08:06):
of the votes that they had there was thirty seven
percent Trump voters. We won fifty percent of the popular vote.
They've put in a whole bunch of Like there was
eight hundred and forty two in the New York Times poll.
There was eight hundred and forty two Trump voters out
of two thousand, four hundred and sixty four adults that
(08:27):
they interviewed. So they interview adults, they screened down for
alleged registered voters. They could be polling legal immigrants for
all we know. But they only have thirty seven percent
Trump voters. We won by two points, fifty to forty eight.
So they have a bad model, and they're doing it
deliberately because they know for every Trump voter they take
out of the poll, they're taking out a point on
(08:50):
his jobapool. And by the way, ABC Washington Post was
worse because they only had thirty four percent Trump voters
in their poll. So when I see these poles like
Reuter's zipsos, they're not They're less transparent than those other
two poles. They won't tell you who voted for Trump
and who didn't vote for Trump. They hide a lot
of the demographics party, but they're skewing the polls by
(09:15):
diluting them with voter with adults or non voters who
they who they know don't like Trump. Now, our polls
are different that we did. In international poll that we
did April twenty ninth, we had the Republicans ahead in
the generic ballot forty five to forty three among a
thousand likely voters nationwide, and in this poll the Battleground
(09:36):
State Pole for the Club for Growth on the battleground
congressional districts, it was forty eight to forty three. That
would concern me still as a Republican because you're a
year after the midterm, you're the incumbent majority in the House,
in the Senate, and you're under fifty. You need to
get it over fifty. And I'll tell you what's interesting
(09:57):
to me is in twenty sevent in December twenty seventeen,
President Trump called me as he was working to pass
his tax cuts, and I said to him, why did
you do healthcare? First? Healthcare? And he told me he
said Speaker Ryan and Senate Leader McConnell had told him
they needed the savings from healthcare to afford the tax cuts.
(10:19):
And I'm like, I'll tell you who can't afford taxes,
and that's your voters, and they won tax cuts. He
should have done the tax cuts first, because when they
passed it in December, it didn't go into effect until
after the midterm election, and we lost both the House
and Senate and he got impeached. But then when he
was running for reelection, the economy was booming back until
(10:42):
COVID hit, and he created millions of jobs as promised.
Because there's Tax Cut Jobs Act, that's the tax cut
that's going to lapse that helped create these millions of
jobs and get people to earn better pay. The difference
is he's pushing for it now because we're taking a
page out of the two thousand and two midterms. After
nine to eleven, George W. Bush had to pump the
(11:05):
economy full of money so that we didn't go into
a recession, and he also passed a tax cut that
was time to go into effect in the second quarter. Now,
that fall out of the hundred House of Delegates in
Virginia because we were pulling for the RNC chairman Jim Gilmore,
out of the hundred seats, we went up from fifty
two to sixty four because the economy was growing. And
(11:28):
then in the election year we had we picked up
two Senate seats in the midterm elections in two thousand
and two, and we picked up eight House seats and
any time majorities because the economy was growing. So right now,
if we don't, if we don't make the Trump tax
cuts permanent, you will see my friend Steve Forbes says,
(11:53):
you won't just see a recession, you'll see a depression
because of that massive taxire And the Democrats know. The
most interesting part to me is the Democrats have voted
against the budget framework to pass the tax cuts, to
make the Trump tax cuts permanent, every member of the House,
every member of the Senate. So they voted. They're on
(12:15):
record for the largest tax increase in the history of
the United States. And the Republicans are making a huge
mistake by fighting among themselves and not holding them accountable
for that. And President Trump started taking it to them.
He did it at Michigan when he spoke at his rally.
He's been taking the Democrats to task that they want
this tax increase that the Club for Growth poll says
(12:36):
three quarters of the voters in the key districts of
Congress don't want that to happen. So Trump's holding them accountable.
And you saw a break among the Democrats yesterday in
the Senate where they passed a bill unanimously for no
taxes on tips. And so they know that. We know,
(12:57):
like from December, we had a poll seventy one percent
of all Americans support no taxes on tips. So the
Democrats are getting back to the same polls and they're like,
we better hop on board that no tax on tips,
no tax on overtime, no tax on social Security. If
the Republicans stay united and pass their tax cuts, you
may see some Democrats starting to bail out on their
(13:21):
position of being in favor of tax increases versus tax cuts.
And by the way, this is how we beat Kamala
Harris last year in the battleground states. When she was
saying she won a middle class tax cup, but she
was going to let the Trump tax cuts laps. We
just hit her for supporting tax increases because it would
hit small businesses, it would hit farms, farmers would be
(13:45):
hit with a lot more average taxpayers would have paid
a lot more money. If she was elected president, we'd
be real trouble right now if she was elected president.
Speaker 1 (13:53):
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(14:57):
obviously we saw him build a really interesting coalition to
get them past the finish line and the well to
not even get them past the finish line to win
the popular vote. Are those groups still with him? Because
you know, obviously he has created a coalition that looks
much different than previous Republican coalitions. Are they still with
(15:18):
him today?
Speaker 2 (15:19):
His base is still with him. I mean, if you
support him, you know, like, as I'm looking at this, uh,
as I'm looking at the Battleground survey of Battleground Congressional
district survey from the Club for Growth, ninety four percent
of the people that votes were Trump approved the job
he's doing. So it's virtually the same number. It's totally intact.
So if you supported and by the way, our national
(15:41):
number fifty percent approved, that's not his popular voute. So
his base is still with him, and it's rock solid.
There's some voters we could be getting that we're not
getting right now that approve of the job he's doing
but didn't vote for him. And and by the way,
the key groups you're talking about that joined their coalition
(16:04):
to get us to fifty percent. It wasn't the usual
groups we were targeting three years out. We were targeting
Hispanic voters. He got forty six percent of the Hispanic
voter record for Republic and two points sided than George W.
Bush got in two thousand and four. He got twenty
one percent of the African American vote. We were targeted
three years out among African American men, twenty one percent
(16:28):
he got. He won higher percentage of younger voters and
younger voters. He's still doing very well within the polls
right now because it's better than what they have, better
opportunities and a little better life and more hope than
what they were doing with Joe Biden. Plus, we also
did well in the suburbs with suburban women because we
were telling them, you know, Kamala Harris was going to
(16:49):
attach your four to one caves and your homes with
that unrealized capital gains tax. So we were do And
Plus the other thing too is there were cultural She's
like men in girls' locker rooms, in girls sports. That
really drove a lot of suburban moms. A lot of
what I call suburban sports moms. They were coming to
(17:10):
us significantly because of that issue. But going back to
your point about the coalition, we only rented them in
the last election. We don't own those groups. We have
to earn their support now. And the Republicans in Congress
actually lag Trump's approval rating, and Trump they see as
(17:31):
somebody who's fighting for them. The Republicans in Congress, whether
they're in the Senate or they're in the House, to
keep their majorities without Trump being on the ballot, they
need to pass the legislation like this, like this tax
cut bill, make it permanent, grow the economy. They also
need to they need to do other things to make
people's lives easier. And you know, I mean there's some
(17:56):
things there where when you look at what's going on
with the you know, when you look at what's going
on with these cultural issues, whether whether it's immigration, whether
it's you know, man and girls sports, I mean, the
Republicans in Congress need to follow Trump's leads on those
issues to get those groups back because we don't have
(18:17):
those groups right now. When you're looking at the Republican
generic bot of Congress at forty five, we don't have them,
and we need to go get them.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
Well, it's also you know, obviously, historically the party in
charge loses seats in the House in the midterms, and
we saw during twenty eighteen, during President Trump's first midterm,
Democrats were able to gain a net of forty one seats,
winning back the House. I mean, I know the environment
(18:46):
is different today than it was then, but does that concern.
Speaker 2 (18:49):
You at all? It does. I mean, because if we
don't get if we don't have a grown economy, if
we don't keep America at peace and prosperous, if we
have if people are feeling insecure. I mean, the greatest
success President Trump has had so far as absolutely security
the border, supporting illegal criminal legal immigrants. I mean, the
(19:11):
Democrats are defending human traffickers. I know, Sorry, I can't.
It's just it's it's it's unbelievable that they could do that.
But we have them doing that. And Marco Rubio was
great yesterday as Secretary of State when he was rebutting
(19:34):
Center von Holland from Maryland, and uh, you know, so
we have to. And the other part too, is the
mainstream media that doesn't like Trump. They're all in I'm
blaming Joe Biden. Now they've discovered that he was totally incapacitated,
you know, but he left this mess and Donald Trump
(19:54):
was trying to dig us out of the mess of
wars in the Middle East, in Ukraine, and the open
border where you still have millions of illegal immigrants and
many of them criminal. Plus, I mean, in this budget
deal you have the the Republicans have made provisions that
(20:14):
if you're an a llegal immigrant, you shouldn't be on Medicaid.
Why should American taxpayers can't afford their own food every day,
their their own court, their own cost of living, their
own healthcare, why should they be asked to pay for
the healthcare of somebody who came here illegally. So and
that's a very popular provision to have that Medicare reform.
(20:36):
Plus the other is workfair. You've got able bodied adults
who are getting free medicaid at the other taxpayer's expensive
don't have to work, look for work and TENK college
or whatever. You know. We need those workfare provisions because
they're very popular where we have, you know, I mean,
when we in that Club for Growth survey, when we
have sixty eight to twenty three supporter a federal law
(20:58):
that stops states from US state tax payer money to
get Medicaid benefits to illegal immigrants. That's a big number.
And seventy nine to sixteen support requiring able bodied adults
to work, be looking for a job, for attending school
in order to receive taxpayer fund and benefits like Medicaid,
food stamps, or income assistants. So those reforms are critical.
(21:19):
By the way, I heard in this bill from New Gingridge.
He told me that they could get more savings because
the workfare requirement doesn't go into effect until twenty twenty
nine if the Trumps president, who in their minds would
not want workfair to go into effect right now, But
I guess inside the Potomac that makes sense to people.
(21:41):
So a lot of Democrats, we got to put pressure
on them and play offense, hold them accountable for this
there because we don't want to, you know, we don't
want people who aren't working, who could be working, to
be receiving free benefits. And we don't want illegal immigrants
to receiving benefits that Americans can't even afford themselves.
Speaker 1 (21:59):
We've got to take a quick Marciall break more with
John in a moment. One thing I worry about as well,
because President Trump's coalition is just so unique to him.
Can Republicans carry the America First mantle moving forward and
(22:21):
pull a similar coalition together until I was twenty eight?
Speaker 2 (22:25):
They can, but they have to work at it with
these issues, because the key thing is you've seen it
in this year's elections back on April first, when you
had a statewide election in Wisconsin for a conservative state
Supreme Court judge versus a liberal. Donald Trump last November
got one point seven million votes in Wisconsin and won
the state. There was a lower turnout in that election
(22:47):
for that state Supreme Court judge, but the conservative only
got a million votes that got beat. So seven hundred
thousand Trump voters stayed home, and even though they carried
the special elections on the same day in Florida, won
the congressional district in Florida six the congressional districts. Instead
of winning two to one like Donald Trump did and
the previous members of Congress did in those districts, it
(23:11):
was closer. It was more like a twenty point lead.
So you had over one hundred thousand Trump voters in
both districts who voted the previous November to stay home.
So if you don't have an issue agenda like Donald
Trump that motivates people and excites people, this is not
a cult of personality. It's a cult of passionate and
a cult about issues. Well, I wouldn't even call it
(23:33):
a cult. It's more a movement, as the President described
it as a movement. But when he started running, and
we've advised him since twenty eleven, when he first started
looking at running in twenty twelve, but then he put
it off till twenty fifteen. But when he announced in
twenty fifteen, he announced on immigration and traded never looked back.
He's been you know, America first from the get go,
(23:56):
and then during the primaries, when you know, we were
talking at his office. He says, they got to need
the tax cut. I said, yes, you do, and he
said you're writing and I said you're writing in a
Republican primary. Tax cuts among Republicans means economic growth, and
he's a businessman. He understood that better than anybody. And
his tax cut during his first term was probably the
(24:20):
most important success foundational success he had, because that gave
us the economic engine to grow out of the COVID pandemic.
It was already work and he would have won reelection.
Jesus it was me we had In March eleventh of
twenty twenty, I was going into the Oval Office with
Jared Kushner and Brad PARSKEALTONI for Brazil and Bill STEPPI
(24:44):
and others, and we were going to go through the
most recent polling. And the President gets up from the
resolute desk and he says, I think I have to
close travel to Europe because of COVID. That's too bad.
These polls have you winning easily and change, I mean
changed history. But by the way, some of us not
actually think we won that election anyway, but we certainly
(25:05):
won the last one decisively. And economic growth, the promise
of economic growth is the foundation to you know, to
make all these other things happen, just like with Ronald Reagan.
Ronald Reagan well collapse the Soviet Empire because his tax
cuts grew the American economy, and America had the economic
power to win the Cold War without firing a shot.
Speaker 1 (25:29):
You know, before we go, are the tariffs of trouble
spot or you know, how do they pull or are
they being messaged correctlys.
Speaker 2 (25:38):
Are a more complex message because I know that's why
I worry about it. It's, you know, right now, the
President's base is solid. They think they understand what he's doing.
He's trying to save American jobs, keep manufacturing here. They
guess less dependent on foreign you know, foreign products that
we can't rely on because we saw that during COVID
with the supply chain. So they understand what he's doing,
(26:02):
and the majority voters do support him for those reasons. However,
it's more complex because every country is a different deal.
And you know, in a way, I kind of wish
he'd done the tax cuts first and then the tariffs,
but you know, it is what he is. He's doing
what he thinks is right. And he's also it's unbelievable
the energy and the amount of focus from President Trump.
(26:25):
I mean, he's a workaholic. He's just it's it's such
a contrast from Joe Biden and the Biden corruption that
we saw over the last four years. But it's a
but the tariffs, by the way, as you've seen the
markets come back and you've seen you know, America's finances
come back, and the trillions of jobs that he's bringing
(26:47):
back to the country and investments, which will take time
because you've got to build the plants, hire the workers,
et cetera. It takes time. There's long term growth there.
Plus there's also growth from the regulatory relief. But the
foundation is really making the Trump tax cuts permanent again.
Speaker 1 (27:06):
And before we go anything else, I've missed that you
want to get across.
Speaker 2 (27:10):
When you think about it, since last November, since our
conversations last year with the election, I mean, so much
has happened. When you know, you just look at the
potential for success. There's really a strong foundation here for
President Trump to It was a historic election that we
went through. I mean, he's the only person in history
(27:31):
ever to beat the Republican establishment and win the nomination,
and I mean he won the nomination last time in
historic fashion. Nobody else has done that. Ronald Reagan didn't
do it. He just swept through those states. And then
for him to beat the DC establishment and maybe the
international establishment where he was able to win the popular votes,
(27:53):
sweep to battleground states, Nobody's ever done this. And now
you're seeing a historic presidency where you know, he's only
been in office since January and he's he's trying to,
you know, literally bring the world back to you know,
peace and prosperity single handedly. It's just it's just an
amazing feat. So we'll see, we'll see hopefully, hopefully you
(28:17):
can add to his legacy and make the country stronger
and better. So yeah, we'll see.
Speaker 1 (28:24):
I hope so too. All Right, John, we'd love to
have you back on as we get closer to the midterms.
Always appreciate your insight and appreciate you making the time.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
Thank you very much. I appreciate the opportunity and keep
up the good luck that was John McLaughlin.
Speaker 1 (28:36):
I appreciate him for making the time to join the show.
Appreciate you guys at home for listening every Tuesday and Thursday,
but of course you can listen throughout the week until
next time.
Host
Lisa Boothe
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