September 16, 2024 • 42 mins
In this episode, Lisa delves into the chaotic presidential election, marked by events like the attempted assassination of Donald Trump and Joe Biden's withdrawal. Pollster Robert Cahaly from the Trafalgar Group provides insights into the challenges of polling during such a tumultuous cycle. He discusses the impact of recent debates, voter behavior, and the strategies of both parties. Cahaly highlights the significance of battleground states and the influence of social desirability bias on polling data. The Truth with Lisa Boothe is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - nw episodes debut every Monday & Thursday.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Today's episode, we'll focus on one thing, where does this
presidential election stand today. Obviously we can't predict what will
happen in November, but the whole point of polling is
to get a snapshot, to get an idea of where
things stand today and where this race might be heading.
It's been a wild election cycle, with the attempted assassination
(00:22):
of former President Donald Trump, with Joe Biden dropping out
via x A tweet, Kamala Harris, a whole new Democrat
candidate being anointed, being installed by her parties, billionaires and elites,
and then picking Tim Walls, a guy who wants to
put tampons in the boys' bathroom, as her vice presidential pick.
So it's been a chaotic, tumultuous cycle, which potentially could
(00:44):
make pulling a little bit harder to figure out. So
we'll talk to someone who has been consistent in his
polling efforts, who's been correct much more than many of
the others, and who's always honest with us when we
have him on the show. It's Robert Kahley with the
tr We're going to get his take on if the
debate potentially changed the dynamics of the election. Many are
(01:06):
saying that it wasn't the best night for Donald Trump,
So how does that impact him moving forward? We'll get
his take on the media, what role the media is
playing and determining the outcome of this election. Also, a
lot is being discussed about this massive gender gap.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
What do you needed about that.
Speaker 1 (01:21):
We'll also get into the key battleground states and where
the House and Senate elections stand as well. Stay tuned
for Robert Kahley with the Trafalgar Group. Robert, it's so
great to have you on the show. This has been
an extremely wild election cycle, so looking forward to hearing
(01:45):
your insight and where things stand now.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
So always appreciate you coming on the show.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
Absolutely, it's a pleasure to be here, and especially with
people that I think so much of and it's you know,
kind of would to have somebody like you to talk with.
It kind of knows a lot about the subject, so
it's always a good discussion.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
Well that means a lot. I really appreciate that.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
You know, as a poster, you're trying to kind of
identify trends and you're obviously you know, looking at a
snapshot in time of where things currently stand. How difficult
has it been this election cycle just with you know,
we've had an assassination attempt and then a whole new
Democrat ticket.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
I mean, it's just been so tumultuous.
Speaker 1 (02:28):
How challenging does that make your job and trying to assess,
you know, where things stand.
Speaker 3 (02:35):
Well, yeah, the polling itself hasn't been so difficult. It's
the rapid changes. For example, you mentioned the change and
the assassination. In both cases, before the assassination, the tent
and and the weekend when that all came clear Kamala
(02:55):
Harris was going to come, we were in the field
almost finished with an entire poles we had to scrap
and so it was very frustrating because these things aren't
cheap to do, and when you have scrapped that many polls,
it's just like but they're not going to make any sense.
And so it was one of those things was we
(03:17):
were trying to establish, like with Trump, a baseline up
where it was going into the convention. Well that was
out the window because he had an assassination e tipt
on a Saturday at an avention that started on Monday,
So there's no window left to do any kind of
a survey and everything we'd done up. There was just trash.
(03:38):
So yeah, in that sense, it's very difficult when they're
massive changes like this, but otherwise the questions are kind
of the same, and at least with Kambala, it lets
us dig in a little bit deeper. Because the one
thing we noticed very early with Biden, and I thought
(03:59):
this was a problem with the Republicans, was that the
main objection to Biden was his age, and there was
a great overconfidence among Republicans. I talked about it on
the podcast that I do with Matt Towery we do
every week called Polling Plus, and I talked about this,
(04:20):
and I think one of the episodes of called Republican Overconfidence.
I gave a delegation speech at the convention about Republican
overconfidence and this was, you know, we're still running itast Biden,
and it was just this idea of the Republicans are
not focused on making the case for Republican issues because
(04:42):
they think it seems so obvious that Biden's going to lose.
And that is what explained the significant difference between the
Republican between Trump and Biden and down the ticket races,
because nobody was making the case for the Republican issues
because it isn't necessary, And now we see how necessary
(05:03):
it was, because if they just switched candidates and the
case had been made against the policies, it wouldn't have
made that much difference. But because they didn't do that,
they're scrambling. And I think that that is a that
is a problem, and it's not the campaign. I think
that I think the Trump campaign is doing a very
(05:25):
good job. But I cannot say enough nasty things if
I could, specifically about the outside groups that are soaking
these billionaires draw and not delivering a real product, if
a product at all.
Speaker 1 (05:41):
Well, and you know, I've heard the same concerns as
you did before Biden dropped out. You know, it was
going on Fox saying, hey, look, we need to make
a bigger case against Democrat Party policies more broadly, because
if he drops out, that solves the age question and
then we're screwed, you know. And so I sure had
the exact same concern as you did before he dropped out.
(06:01):
And also just you know, TV was still drumming up
Biden's age, Biden's age, and it's like, okay, once that's gone,
you know, what do we have?
Speaker 2 (06:08):
Right? So like, that's.
Speaker 3 (06:12):
Exactly right. And this is one of the reasons that
I said on Maria Barromo and quite a few other shows,
I was more wored about Kamala than Biden. I've always
been more about Kamala than Biden because I knew that.
First of all. Then I've always been concerned because I
(06:32):
knew they couldn't skip her. Going back three years ago,
I said that when you're an identity politics party, you
cannot abandon this woman when it's her turn, or you
will lose her demographic. You can't do it. You can't
play identity politics when it's convenient. But then the night
of Biden's debate debacle, she came, Kamala came on too,
(06:57):
MSNBC and CNN, and she was so articulate and she
was so smooth, and I remember even John King was like,
where have you been keeping her the last three years? Wow?
What an effective message? And I was like, Oh, this
is in, this is in, this is gonna happen. They
(07:18):
are set in the stage, so I knew it was
gonna be her. I knew there was going to be
a media love fest and the Kamala that was kind
of wandering around I mean sometimes staff does matter, and
she has some of the best in the business on
the Democrat side advising her. Now, not the people who
are advising her. When she was vice president who fronts
we weren't doing her a very good job because if
(07:40):
you look at her as a senator, and if you
look at her and Attorney general, she was much smarter
than she seemed as vice president. So I was worried
that the real commrao might come back.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
Well, you know, you were to have those concerns about her.
You know what's interesting, Robert is Okay, So we were
told that there would be a honeymoon period. It ended
up lasting longer than you know, I think anticipated, And
then it seemed up until the debate that maybe that
sort of you know, sugar high if you want to
call it, or the honeymoon period was maybe finally you know,
(08:13):
on the downgrade that was you know, turning down, that
was diminishing. But then you know, here she had this
debate where you know, she performed probably better than expected.
You know, she rehearsed her lines. Who knew who knows
if she knew what any of it meant, but you know,
she rehearsed her line, she came prepared all you had
something like I think more than sixty seven million people
who watched. It was one of the most watched debates
(08:36):
in quite some time, I think something like sixteen years.
I mean, does that sustain her sugar high? I mean,
does that put her back on in an upward trajectory?
I mean, you know, I guess, how do you think
the debate changes things or does it change things?
Speaker 3 (08:53):
Well, let me give you an example of Matt Tyr
and I together did an instant poll. And so what
we did in our poll was we looked at all
the battlegroum states. We basically contacted people in just those
states and it was over twenty three hundred people and
(09:17):
the course of like the last thirty minutes of the
debate and thirty minutes after, so it was I mean
a lot, a lot of contact, and we had that.
It started out we asked where you were before the
debate began forty seven Trump forty seven, hairs two for
others for undecided. Then we asked who won the debate,
(09:38):
and that was Harris fifty five, Trump forty three. It
was a tie to who are you voting for now?
And on this one. We try to minimize the undecided
about saying it the election were held tomorrow and you
had to decide who would you vote for. In that case,
it was forty eight Trump, forty eight Harris, one someone
(10:01):
else and three undecided. So what we showed is lots
of people who thought Trump lost, who was still for Trump,
didn't think he won the debate. There's still for him.
And so as you know, and that and that's us.
And people say, well that in that discount, that's because
you know, republicanly whatever, non nonsense. It doesn't matter to
(10:25):
mention that. You know that we are the number one
polling firm of the last two presidential cycles, unquestionable, we
have the lowest arabate of anybody, and these in battlement
of states. But put that aside. The NN's one focus
group bought the common one. But it didn't move anything.
(10:48):
You saw the New York Times article about the people
and said the pundit says she won, but it did
not move undecided. I mean, and and and the wroters
sound the same thing. I mean. So there's this thought
that she might have performed better, But how did she
come across, you know, winning and throwing the most barbs
(11:13):
doesn't necessarily make you popular. I mean, one can of
argue al Gore won the debates of the Bush, but
she came out liking Bush better. So there's a likability
argument that could be said. And I think that if
you just look that, you're going to see a lot
of people and I think you're going to find this,
(11:34):
especially in the blue collar Midwest, who did not come
across with thinking they liked her better after that debate,
because the one thing Trump did is he tied her
to bite and he you know, he says she's Bien.
And the one moment I thought she seemed the most
(11:54):
bristle is when she was like, well, I'm not Biden,
and then she realized what she had done. Well I'm
not Trump either. I mean, like if you look at
kind of the thought going through her mind, like what
now that that could be George argh. She said I'm
not Trump either, like I'm different, you know, I'm a
new generator. But it was like she was defensive on that.
(12:15):
And people know, the moderators will pointing out when they
thought Trump didn't say something right, even though I'm not
even sure that the things they pointed out that Trump
said that they said, we're wrong, We're actually even wrong.
I mean, everybody's seen the video on the internet of
the the police officer and the body cam arresting the
woman who people say was eating on the cat. I mean,
(12:37):
that isn't made up. That's real. That body cam is
out there, but I can see it. So now I've
seen even by a dog. But I mean the fact is,
some of these there's a lot of crazy stuff going
on in this town. And there's also I mean a
lot of voodoo stuff corner and a lot of that
(12:57):
community now too. So you know fbio statistics, I mean,
there's a lot of questions about whether they're cooking the books.
I mean, so there's a lot of things they correct
to Trump on that may not even be right. So
it did have the field that the moderators were own
her side in such a way that you didn't come across.
(13:20):
I mean, when Trump compliments Dana Bash and Jake Tapper,
I gotta tell you something like that was a fair debate.
They didn't get in there. And frankly, I think if
Trump could get a fair debate, he should do another one.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
That's the challenge is, you know, trying to get a
fair debate, and you know, just seeing sort of even
the media research centers, the studies about how the media
is covered this truncated election cycle, you know, where basically
she's getting almost one hundred percent positive coverage and you
know he's getting almost one hundred percent, you know, negative coverage.
Speaker 2 (13:53):
We've got more with Robert.
Speaker 1 (13:54):
But first, as we approached the one year mark of
the horrific events of October seventh in Israel, the International
Fellowship of Christians and Jews invites you to join them
in Flags of Fellowship, an opportunity for Christians to remember
the victims, honor the heroes, pray for those still held hostage,
and highlight the unwavering support of Christians for Israel and
(14:15):
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be praying for those impacted by the war and planning
flags across America to honor the victims of October seventh.
Join us and letting the world know that Christians stand
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(14:36):
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Speaker 2 (14:52):
That's one word. Support IFCJ dot org. Support IFCJ dot org.
Speaker 1 (15:02):
If you would assess where things stand today, you know,
where does this election stand? Honestly nationally because you know
obviously that doesn't really matter as much, but in the
battleground states that are ultimately going to decide the electoral
College outcome.
Speaker 2 (15:18):
You know where do you think this election stands?
Speaker 3 (15:21):
Well, I'll put it to you this way. We kind
of went through this on our latest podcast and people
should check it out polling plus type into polling with
the first podcast it comes up. But we we talked
about we're going to do each one of the battleground
states and uh I did the most recent bowl in Pennsylvania.
I had Trump up by two and I will tell you,
(15:42):
in my experience with the Democrat organization on the ground there,
get out the vote and whatever that entails. Leave that
out there. I don't think two points is enough to
win Pennsylvania, think you better be leading it by more
than two points. So I'd say Pennsylvania is a loss
right now. Michigan, I think I had it that even
(16:07):
Matt Twery's last poe had Trump up by one. That
might be enough, but I think Michigan is only dependent
on what happens with the Middle East and the guys.
The thing ate whether the community of Arabs or Muslims,
and they're actually separate community, not separate communities, but they're different.
(16:31):
Not every one of the Arabs is a Muslim, but
there's one group and they feel very strongly about that,
and depend upon how they feel about Kambala and where
they participate. Probably the Trump two wins Michigan Wisconsin. My
mother recent one had Trump up by zero point eight.
Speaker 1 (16:50):
Which is probably the same problem as Pennsylvania, where you've
got to get above that margin of error.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
If you're going to win a state.
Speaker 3 (16:56):
Like that, I would think you've got to win, you know,
a little bit better than that. Arizona. Arizona is probably
one that Trump can win. Uh. The most recent poll
that Matt did there had I mean, Carry Lake was
only behind by four uh and Trump was up, So
(17:16):
I think I think Arizona is one that could be won.
Nevada I've learned my lesson. I have been had my
butt keep three times trying to say Nevada is going
to vote Republican because what they do the Saturday for
that election, the money before the election, with all the
early voting, and the buses and the vans and and
(17:36):
and frankly just good hard work.
Speaker 2 (17:39):
Well it's the Harry Reid turnout machine, right.
Speaker 3 (17:42):
It is fantastic. I mean, I am envious of what
the Democrats do, so I'm not going to make a call.
I don't care how good it looks Republicans Georgia. I
think George is possible. They've got a lot of things
to tighten things up and George, they haven't addressed be
seen biggest problem in Georgia, which is what had people
(18:03):
watching video of ballot boxes being stuffed and being told
it was fair. What they don't understand was, here's the
problem to the law. If somebody cast fifty ballots and
forty nine are illegal, they're guilty of forty nine counts
of voter fraud. However, all fifty ballots are to be counted.
(18:23):
That is a flaw in the law. And that is
why you saw the video you did, and yet those
weren't illegal balance and they have not fixed that. Now
bringing those ballot boxes inside and their all film, if
people know their own film, I think will limit it.
But that's a real problem and that really should be
(18:44):
addressed by the law. They ought to be able to
go in there when they see that and try to
isolate those those ballots, whether it's fingerprints or whatever. But
if you notice some of those videos, they are wearing
rubber gloves. I mean, they were worried they were going
to do that. So that's a real problem, and I'm
not sure how they handle that, but they have to
do something because it just it's an issue. But I
(19:06):
still think Georgia can be one. And I've never been
a believer that North Carolina is going to go Democrat.
I mean North Carolina has traditionally had I mean they've
Republican everything, even twenty twenty two they said legislative high
water marsh for both the House and the Senate in
(19:30):
North Carolina got super majorities in twenty twenty two, and
they will every Senate seat. Every state went office except governor,
and in the past the past two gumatrolection. They just
had bad candidates, and so even if the candidate for
governor doesn't win, that doesn't mean the state just defaults
to D. So I think North Calaina is going to
(19:52):
go for Trump, and at that point there's got to
be one. And so it really right now, if I
had to save the election today, i'd say it to hers.
Speaker 1 (20:03):
Yeah, because what you just laid out does not get
them to two seventy's.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
Yeah, but what what I mean? And we hear stuff
all the time about the level of organization. The Democrats
are very good at this, and they don't just talk it,
and they don't just put crappy, you know, computer programs
on their phones. They have people on the ground, like
(20:29):
a thousand paid operatives in Georgia for the Republican versus
Democrat runoffs for Senate when they were both up. I mean,
like that's incredible. In the Atlanta airport, like kids wearing
colored shirts gathering up at the airport, all coming in.
I mean, one of a map ran to someone organizing
(20:50):
on Christmas Eve in a hotel conference room when they
were going to have dinner at a hotel. I mean,
this is the this is the kind of dedication they have,
and so I don't see anything on the Republican side
to equal that level of grassroots. And part of it
is the Republican Party's real problem is a bunch of
(21:10):
donor money that goes to people who squandered. There's not
a profit big profit margin to make about organizing grassroots.
No vendor gets rich doing it. But it's the single
most important thing that can be done. And that's that's
that's literally what people who know the system worry about
is there's so much profitteering on the Republican side and
(21:33):
not of attention to winning.
Speaker 1 (21:37):
No, that's that's uh, obviously a huge concern. You know,
you look at some of the fundamentals of this race
in the sense of, you know, the economy is the
number one issue, that's the issue that you know he
does the best on, you know, even uh, even after
the election. You know, CNN's own poll found that, you know,
(21:58):
we're the confidence and have him on the issue of
economy increased after the debate. And then you look at
the other issue of you know, the New York Times
finding that you know, sixty one percent of Americans want
major change from President Biden. You know, the majority obviously
see him as the change. Is that enough to you know,
(22:19):
try to push him closer to two seventy as we
kind of you know, I know you said the race
today is probably hers.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
Or what does he need to do? Do you think?
Speaker 3 (22:29):
Well? I think he needs to do. The campaign is
the one thing that I think has been operated very well.
I mean, whether it's their ads, of their strategy, or
the towns that they can do their rallies. I mean,
they're doing their job extremely well, and I think they
just need to keep on doing what they're doing. The
(22:52):
other thing to remember is the social desirability bias, the
thing that we were very good at predicting in twenty
sixteen of what the difference between what people said and
who they're really voting for. You know, some people call
that the Bradley effect, and that goes back to a
race apparently with governor candidate named Duke Magian and a
(23:15):
candidate named Bradley. He was the mayor of Los Angeles,
and all the Poles said Bradley would win because people
wanted to say they were voting for the African American
candidate because it made them look more open minded, but
they actually voted for Dick Magian. So when you consider
their people who don't want to say they're voting for
Trump alone, and then the fact that they're people who
(23:37):
are saying their voting for Kamala who don't intend to,
there could be a double social desirability bias going on.
So I will hold out the possibility that Trump might
have an advantage in these states that is not seen
right now. But I think that everyone should act as
(23:58):
if he's going to lose right now and redouble their
efforts because it's on the cusp and the energy is there,
and the real people who want this, I mean, look
at the reaction they got going through the Shanks Billed
fire Department. I mean, those are real people, you know,
those are those are just real Americans and not any
(24:19):
particular racial, you know, ethnic, They're just real Americans, firefighters,
and they know who the real guy is. They know
who the real person looking out for them is. So
I mean, I do have hope and confidence that there
may still be a hidden vote out there that we're
not seeing. But I do think that she she came
(24:41):
across as a little bit argumentative and a little bit snarky,
and he made a couple really good points I said
before the one whe he talked about he compared her
to Biden. And then what he said, Well, if you
really want to do this, why don't you just go
down to Washington and get him to sign the stuff
(25:01):
he needs to sign to close the board. I mean
that resonated people like you gotna matter, do it, don't
talk about it, you can get this done today. And
you know that's some of the feedback we got that
that meant something. So I think he I think he
might not have had the best night, but I think
he landed a few little singers that that that will
(25:24):
end up standing the test of time.
Speaker 1 (25:28):
You also look at some of these voter registration numbers,
and you know, Republicans are you know, at least winning
on that game in a lot of these states, especially
when you look at Pennsylvania for instance. Does that maybe
speak to the fact that there might be you know,
sort of headen Trump supporters or new voters that you
(25:49):
know are obviously harder to identify for for Polsters.
Speaker 3 (25:54):
It does. But I will tell you the and we've
always thought this was coming, but I think the Taylor
Swift effect, I mean is going to be is going
to be strong I mean, I'm worried about when Taylor
Swift just asks all of for people. What if she
throws a free concert and all you got to do
is give money to buy I mean to give money
(26:15):
to a Kamala to go. She could do something like
an online concert and you have to give money to
them to be able to log in here. I mean,
who knows what she could do, but I think they
could raise a bunch of money, and I think they
could get a bunch of young ladies that the last
thing on their mind was voting, kind of gen zs
who were just not live there yet and engage them.
(26:38):
But I can say is so far, what we've seen
is is gen Z boys are not big on on
this whole Swift thing. And I do see a real
ethnic divide on the fans of Taylor Swift. So there
may be there may be there may be some wash
(27:00):
fact on that some some people who were our less
likely to go that way.
Speaker 1 (27:06):
We've also seen, you know, a big gender gap between
the two candidates, where so I mean, you know, women
do tend to vote more than men, but you know,
how significant is that gender gap and you know kind
of how does that play in certain of each candidate's
favor or against them as well.
Speaker 3 (27:28):
Well. The gender gap is biggest at the youngest, and
it works. The weapon dissipates. Uh. Gen Z has the
biggest gender gap of all. I mean, it is it
is just dark. Gen Z mails are very different than
millennial males. Gen Z mails are looking for. There's been
(27:48):
so much confusion about what it means to be a
man in this world, and you know, all these phrases
like toxic masculinity and stuff like that. I mean, they
are looking toward towards, you know, a man's man kind
of like Trump. They I mean they are. It's part
of why there's such a huge growth and some even
(28:11):
the the more violent uh you know, fighting sports. I mean,
this group is looking to kind of recapture manhood and
so they see a lot of that in Trump, and
so that is where a lot of it's focused. And
the older we see the people, the less it is
(28:32):
a huge gender gap because what we found is a
lot of for example, married women who have a few children,
they become a lot less focused on abortion and the
right to have an abortion than some of their younger counterparts.
And so it's it is, it is, it is a
(28:55):
significant gender gap. I don't know that it is solvable
at this point with what's baked in, but I do
think that it is useful for motivating the people on
either side because what I would tell you is the
the females are better voters, and so it's the challenge
(29:18):
of the Republicans to get their male counterparts to show
up in that kind of number as well. And I
think it's really possible, and we can see that gap.
And the younger Black community there's a significant gender gap
with them too. I mean, most of the strength that
Trump has with with black voters is black males underpicked.
Speaker 1 (29:39):
Obviously very concerned about her being the president.
Speaker 2 (29:43):
You know, our country would be screwed.
Speaker 1 (29:45):
We've got to take a quick commercial break. More with
Robert on the other side, it looks like Republicans at
the very least are on track to win the Senate.
You know, kind of what have you seen in sort
of the Senate lands escape in terms of Republicans trying
to take back the Senate, And then you know, sort
of what are you saying for the House races and
(30:06):
Republicans trying to retain the majority in the House.
Speaker 3 (30:08):
I've said for a while I think the House is
going to go the way the President's race is going
to go. It's just that tight. Whichever way has the momentum.
I think the Senate's going to the Republicans. I would
say the next best shot, especially if Trump does a
really good job as McCormick. McCormick has run a fantastic campaign.
He's just done. He's just kind of hit all on
(30:30):
all cylinders, and I think that is a chance to
win one. I think that Rogers, if that little age
that Trump can gather in Michigan can be gathered, Rogers
could become up across and depending on how strong immigration plays,
(30:53):
and I think it's going to play big in Arizona,
I could see I see carry Lake. I mean four
points back is not not that far back. And I
think in that state, just on the issue of immigration
and the strong status of immigration, could that could make
(31:14):
a difference, you know, And I would love to tell
you that Sharon Brown could lose. But the problem is
is there's just not any kind of equality in the spending.
And you know, I worried that some of the same
old Mitch McConnell crowd is the one spending that the
pack money again this year, and they were very ineffective
(31:36):
last year. I mean, they blew two hundred and fifty
million dollars to win one Senate seat, and it was
ridiculous some of the support that didn't. I mean, when
you look at how little Blake Masters got, it was insane,
just because Blake said he wasn't going to vote McConnell,
and then all of a sudden he's just isolated and
a lot of money was raised with the promise it
(31:56):
was going to go to Senate races that were on
the cusp dog I handed Lisa Murkowski, who had she lost,
would have only lost to someone more conservative to her
than her. So and that was McConnell. Pay him back
a favor, but he put a lot of donor money
that was supposed to go other places for mccowski. I
(32:19):
would like to believe that there's a better effort this year,
but I don't I so.
Speaker 1 (32:24):
In my opinion, Pennsylvania is the most important state the
selection cycle.
Speaker 3 (32:31):
Becau.
Speaker 1 (32:31):
As he pointed out in the Vadis Finiki, I think Pennsylvania,
with her fracking issue, Trump has the most fertile ground
to try to make his case to the state and
then in pulling thus far, that's been the state out
of the you know, the three blue Wall states that
he's been pulling the best in.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
Is that a fair assessment or you know, I think
so too.
Speaker 3 (32:52):
I think so. Now it's also the state that has,
let's just say the most Shenanians. Yeah, I'm both three,
but I think that it's a state that could break
strongly for him because that is probably there's probably some
buyers remorse. And the thing is, I think the switch
(33:14):
to Kamala really made Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia more competitive.
I'm not sure that switch made Pennsylvania more competitive because
she doesn't have the same appeal to those blue collar
voters that Biden did. I mean, he could generally say
I am one of you and relate to them. I
(33:37):
mean even look look at the peer pressure when they
were all just giving him a hard time of wearing
the Trump hat. I mean, he wants that crowd to
like him, and he sees that as his crowd. Where's that?
I mean, that's just it's just Biden has always seen
himself as one of those people who could relate to
those people who told stories that made sense to them
(34:00):
about how he grew up and how tough things were.
So I just don't think she has that appeal and walls.
He's not going to come across like a regular Midwestern guy.
He's just not regulars Western guys don't don't go to
China that much and do some of the stuff he's
(34:22):
done and take some of the stands he's had. So
I think we also.
Speaker 2 (34:26):
Wanted to put tampons in the boys bathroom.
Speaker 1 (34:28):
So it's like, you know, it's I think, you know,
men are you know that's that doesn't really resonate, you know,
or with all the people that doesn't resonate.
Speaker 3 (34:39):
Certainly, he's going to get the vote of every janitor
because he wants to clean all that up because boys, listen,
I can I can tell you what would have happened
in my school tampons. They would have been very clever
with the art that would have been made in that bathroom. Yeah, yeah,
that's that's that's so Jender vote locked down. So I
(35:01):
think that I think you're right, and I think some
of those issues just will start to resonate. And what
I've seen with some of the these young people are
so some of the memes and stuff they've done, or
are just they dig in so far that people don't
understand how effective that stuff is. I mean, in many ways,
(35:22):
with the built in drifting and corruption of the Republican establishment,
the reason we may survive this election is that the
one to one Republicans out there who find something that's funny,
that's poignant, that that will send a message to somebody
who literally share that repost. That there's millions of people
(35:46):
doing that, and I think that they may be the
secret to the success if it happens well.
Speaker 1 (35:52):
And also, you know, I think you know, some of
these interviews with you know, podcasters, uh, you know, you
you're you know, it's you know, I think what's challenging is,
I mean, the media might end up being the difference
makers the selection cycle in the sense of, you know,
if you're Donald Trump, it's just and especially with the
(36:14):
kind of money that she's been raising, it's very, very
hard to get your message across to the American people
when you're met with you know, that much resistance in
the form of almost you know, like ninety three percent
negative coverage, or you know, with ABC ALAN or you know,
the media at large. The Media Research Center eighty nine
percent negative coverage and her, you know, the complete inverse.
Speaker 2 (36:38):
Where it's all positive.
Speaker 1 (36:39):
I mean that's like it's a very very hard wall
to break through and get your message across to the
American people.
Speaker 3 (36:45):
Oh, the good news is less and less people are
watching that media. Yeah, it's all time low. I mean
this connected TV and people just watching what they want
to watch, and paid services offer a real effective way. Now,
don't get me wrong, Kamala Harris. Uh. You know, whether
I'm at my place in South Carolina that shares the
(37:07):
North Carolna media market the Asheville media market, or when
I'm at my place in Georgia, I see the ads
and I see the tarketing, and he is all over
digital in a way that I do not see anybody
in the Trump team. I mean you can't. You can
go watch YouTube videos about Republicans and all the ads
(37:29):
will be hers. If it's about politics at all, you'll
see all of her. You'll see her ads on YouTube
almost two to one, three to one. I mean just actually,
I'm not it's probably worse than that.
Speaker 1 (37:41):
Yeah, I've seen it. I mean, I guess I've seen
a couple ads from him. But you know, before we
go you know what what should we be you know,
obviously we would love to have you come back on,
you know, before November one hundred percent, but sort of
in the interim, you know what, what should we be
keeping our eyes on?
Speaker 2 (38:00):
You know what are you watching?
Speaker 1 (38:02):
And you know what for those of us who aren't empulling,
you know what, who we be looking at?
Speaker 3 (38:08):
Well? I think you should be looking at a few things.
As far as the polls I like to, I mean,
the real clear politics has put together, you know, averages
of which polling firms are consistently at the lowest air
right and which ones don't. And so Emerson College as
(38:30):
far as the college is a good one to pay
attention to, and h New York Times Sienna is a
good one to pay attention to. It lengths a little left,
but it's a good one. And obviously inside our advantage
and us, I mean we are of the four firms
that do you know, more than ten states, we have
(38:51):
the top four and Emmerson College is on one ahead
of us, and that's cumulative enterprisent years. We're number one
inside manage number two. So those are those are ones
you can keep an eye on. Uh, the stuff you
should probably be dismissive of is what comes from Bloomberg
because that is just in the tank and a lot
(39:15):
of the mainstream media, I mean, ABC is probably one
of the worst. If you remember the I think they're
they're they're ratings for presidential was in the bottom ten percent.
I mean, they're just they're so far off. They have
a margin of area like five and a half, whereas
you know we're all under three from margin air raid
(39:39):
on these things that their air rate is just horrible.
So major network's not so good. And but these these
are pretty good. And and beware of brand new polling
firms you've never heard of that are affecting the averages
just like they dug them up or created them yesterday.
(39:59):
And and then especially go look at at whether a
firm is ranked. Any firm that RCP doesn't even have
in their rankings means that they were so bad that
they that they made a point of not doing a
poll in the last three weeks of any election because
they didn't want to be they didn't want to face
(40:19):
the scrutiny of what they said. Because a lot of
these firms will stop polling within three weeks to make
sure that they don't get counted. And you know, that's
like the kid who tells you he's so smart to
take your test. You know that's a problem. So keep
on the eye all the stuff you can trust and
everywhere everythings you haven't heard, and look for the possibility
(40:40):
of some numbers of people, some social ability byas built in.
But also realize just how good the Democrats to get
out the vote operation is, because it is. Yeah, and
we're going to see just how many yeah newie registered
or you know, registers who should be registered. And the
(41:03):
Democrats thought awful hard prevent that law from saying you
had to get a citizen for a reason.
Speaker 1 (41:08):
Yeah, you know. And CNN had him down by six
in Wisconsin when the last four out of six presidential
races were decided by less than one percent.
Speaker 2 (41:17):
So it's like, you know, obviously that's total bus.
Speaker 3 (41:21):
We had that we had the number one problem Wisconsin
in the entire country in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (41:25):
Yeah, I mean a lot of these most of these
battleground states will be decided by less than one percent
most likely.
Speaker 3 (41:32):
Absolutely.
Speaker 1 (41:33):
Thanks Robert Kaheley. I'm always great to have you on.
Always brings so much insight. Would love to have you
back very soon. Always learn so much from you, so
just really appreciate you making the time. Absolutely it was
Robert Kaheley with the Trafalgar Group. Appreciate him for taking
the time to join the show. Appreciate you guys at
home for listening every Monday and Thursday, but you can
listen throughout the week. I want to think John Cassio,
(41:54):
my producer, for putting the show together until next time.
Today's episode, we'll focus on one thing, where does this
presidential election stand today. Obviously we can't predict what will
happen in November, but the whole point of polling is
to get a snapshot, to get an idea of where
things stand today and where this race might be heading.
It's been a wild election cycle, with the attempted assassination
(00:22):
of former President Donald Trump, with Joe Biden dropping out
via x A tweet, Kamala Harris, a whole new Democrat
candidate being anointed, being installed by her parties, billionaires and elites,
and then picking Tim Walls, a guy who wants to
put tampons in the boys' bathroom, as her vice presidential pick.
So it's been a chaotic, tumultuous cycle, which potentially could
(00:44):
make pulling a little bit harder to figure out. So
we'll talk to someone who has been consistent in his
polling efforts, who's been correct much more than many of
the others, and who's always honest with us when we
have him on the show. It's Robert Kahley with the
tr We're going to get his take on if the
debate potentially changed the dynamics of the election. Many are
(01:06):
saying that it wasn't the best night for Donald Trump,
So how does that impact him moving forward? We'll get
his take on the media, what role the media is
playing and determining the outcome of this election. Also, a
lot is being discussed about this massive gender gap.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
What do you needed about that.
Speaker 1 (01:21):
We'll also get into the key battleground states and where
the House and Senate elections stand as well. Stay tuned
for Robert Kahley with the Trafalgar Group. Robert, it's so
great to have you on the show. This has been
an extremely wild election cycle, so looking forward to hearing
(01:45):
your insight and where things stand now.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
So always appreciate you coming on the show.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
Absolutely, it's a pleasure to be here, and especially with
people that I think so much of and it's you know,
kind of would to have somebody like you to talk with.
It kind of knows a lot about the subject, so
it's always a good discussion.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
Well that means a lot. I really appreciate that.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
You know, as a poster, you're trying to kind of
identify trends and you're obviously you know, looking at a
snapshot in time of where things currently stand. How difficult
has it been this election cycle just with you know,
we've had an assassination attempt and then a whole new
Democrat ticket.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
I mean, it's just been so tumultuous.
Speaker 1 (02:28):
How challenging does that make your job and trying to assess,
you know, where things stand.
Speaker 3 (02:35):
Well, yeah, the polling itself hasn't been so difficult. It's
the rapid changes. For example, you mentioned the change and
the assassination. In both cases, before the assassination, the tent
and and the weekend when that all came clear Kamala
(02:55):
Harris was going to come, we were in the field
almost finished with an entire poles we had to scrap
and so it was very frustrating because these things aren't
cheap to do, and when you have scrapped that many polls,
it's just like but they're not going to make any sense.
And so it was one of those things was we
(03:17):
were trying to establish, like with Trump, a baseline up
where it was going into the convention. Well that was
out the window because he had an assassination e tipt
on a Saturday at an avention that started on Monday,
So there's no window left to do any kind of
a survey and everything we'd done up. There was just trash.
(03:38):
So yeah, in that sense, it's very difficult when they're
massive changes like this, but otherwise the questions are kind
of the same, and at least with Kambala, it lets
us dig in a little bit deeper. Because the one
thing we noticed very early with Biden, and I thought
(03:59):
this was a problem with the Republicans, was that the
main objection to Biden was his age, and there was
a great overconfidence among Republicans. I talked about it on
the podcast that I do with Matt Towery we do
every week called Polling Plus, and I talked about this,
(04:20):
and I think one of the episodes of called Republican Overconfidence.
I gave a delegation speech at the convention about Republican
overconfidence and this was, you know, we're still running itast Biden,
and it was just this idea of the Republicans are
not focused on making the case for Republican issues because
(04:42):
they think it seems so obvious that Biden's going to lose.
And that is what explained the significant difference between the
Republican between Trump and Biden and down the ticket races,
because nobody was making the case for the Republican issues
because it isn't necessary, And now we see how necessary
(05:03):
it was, because if they just switched candidates and the
case had been made against the policies, it wouldn't have
made that much difference. But because they didn't do that,
they're scrambling. And I think that that is a that
is a problem, and it's not the campaign. I think
that I think the Trump campaign is doing a very
(05:25):
good job. But I cannot say enough nasty things if
I could, specifically about the outside groups that are soaking
these billionaires draw and not delivering a real product, if
a product at all.
Speaker 1 (05:41):
Well, and you know, I've heard the same concerns as
you did before Biden dropped out. You know, it was
going on Fox saying, hey, look, we need to make
a bigger case against Democrat Party policies more broadly, because
if he drops out, that solves the age question and
then we're screwed, you know. And so I sure had
the exact same concern as you did before he dropped out.
(06:01):
And also just you know, TV was still drumming up
Biden's age, Biden's age, and it's like, okay, once that's gone,
you know, what do we have?
Speaker 2 (06:08):
Right? So like, that's.
Speaker 3 (06:12):
Exactly right. And this is one of the reasons that
I said on Maria Barromo and quite a few other shows,
I was more wored about Kamala than Biden. I've always
been more about Kamala than Biden because I knew that.
First of all. Then I've always been concerned because I
(06:32):
knew they couldn't skip her. Going back three years ago,
I said that when you're an identity politics party, you
cannot abandon this woman when it's her turn, or you
will lose her demographic. You can't do it. You can't
play identity politics when it's convenient. But then the night
of Biden's debate debacle, she came, Kamala came on too,
(06:57):
MSNBC and CNN, and she was so articulate and she
was so smooth, and I remember even John King was like,
where have you been keeping her the last three years? Wow?
What an effective message? And I was like, Oh, this
is in, this is in, this is gonna happen. They
(07:18):
are set in the stage, so I knew it was
gonna be her. I knew there was going to be
a media love fest and the Kamala that was kind
of wandering around I mean sometimes staff does matter, and
she has some of the best in the business on
the Democrat side advising her. Now, not the people who
are advising her. When she was vice president who fronts
we weren't doing her a very good job because if
(07:40):
you look at her as a senator, and if you
look at her and Attorney general, she was much smarter
than she seemed as vice president. So I was worried
that the real commrao might come back.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
Well, you know, you were to have those concerns about her.
You know what's interesting, Robert is Okay, So we were
told that there would be a honeymoon period. It ended
up lasting longer than you know, I think anticipated, And
then it seemed up until the debate that maybe that
sort of you know, sugar high if you want to
call it, or the honeymoon period was maybe finally you know,
(08:13):
on the downgrade that was you know, turning down, that
was diminishing. But then you know, here she had this
debate where you know, she performed probably better than expected.
You know, she rehearsed her lines. Who knew who knows
if she knew what any of it meant, but you know,
she rehearsed her line, she came prepared all you had
something like I think more than sixty seven million people
who watched. It was one of the most watched debates
(08:36):
in quite some time, I think something like sixteen years.
I mean, does that sustain her sugar high? I mean,
does that put her back on in an upward trajectory?
I mean, you know, I guess, how do you think
the debate changes things or does it change things?
Speaker 3 (08:53):
Well, let me give you an example of Matt Tyr
and I together did an instant poll. And so what
we did in our poll was we looked at all
the battlegroum states. We basically contacted people in just those
states and it was over twenty three hundred people and
(09:17):
the course of like the last thirty minutes of the
debate and thirty minutes after, so it was I mean
a lot, a lot of contact, and we had that.
It started out we asked where you were before the
debate began forty seven Trump forty seven, hairs two for
others for undecided. Then we asked who won the debate,
(09:38):
and that was Harris fifty five, Trump forty three. It
was a tie to who are you voting for now?
And on this one. We try to minimize the undecided
about saying it the election were held tomorrow and you
had to decide who would you vote for. In that case,
it was forty eight Trump, forty eight Harris, one someone
(10:01):
else and three undecided. So what we showed is lots
of people who thought Trump lost, who was still for Trump,
didn't think he won the debate. There's still for him.
And so as you know, and that and that's us.
And people say, well that in that discount, that's because
you know, republicanly whatever, non nonsense. It doesn't matter to
(10:25):
mention that. You know that we are the number one
polling firm of the last two presidential cycles, unquestionable, we
have the lowest arabate of anybody, and these in battlement
of states. But put that aside. The NN's one focus
group bought the common one. But it didn't move anything.
(10:48):
You saw the New York Times article about the people
and said the pundit says she won, but it did
not move undecided. I mean, and and and the wroters
sound the same thing. I mean. So there's this thought
that she might have performed better, But how did she
come across, you know, winning and throwing the most barbs
(11:13):
doesn't necessarily make you popular. I mean, one can of
argue al Gore won the debates of the Bush, but
she came out liking Bush better. So there's a likability
argument that could be said. And I think that if
you just look that, you're going to see a lot
of people and I think you're going to find this,
(11:34):
especially in the blue collar Midwest, who did not come
across with thinking they liked her better after that debate,
because the one thing Trump did is he tied her
to bite and he you know, he says she's Bien.
And the one moment I thought she seemed the most
(11:54):
bristle is when she was like, well, I'm not Biden,
and then she realized what she had done. Well I'm
not Trump either. I mean, like if you look at
kind of the thought going through her mind, like what
now that that could be George argh. She said I'm
not Trump either, like I'm different, you know, I'm a
new generator. But it was like she was defensive on that.
(12:15):
And people know, the moderators will pointing out when they
thought Trump didn't say something right, even though I'm not
even sure that the things they pointed out that Trump
said that they said, we're wrong, We're actually even wrong.
I mean, everybody's seen the video on the internet of
the the police officer and the body cam arresting the
woman who people say was eating on the cat. I mean,
(12:37):
that isn't made up. That's real. That body cam is
out there, but I can see it. So now I've
seen even by a dog. But I mean the fact is,
some of these there's a lot of crazy stuff going
on in this town. And there's also I mean a
lot of voodoo stuff corner and a lot of that
(12:57):
community now too. So you know fbio statistics, I mean,
there's a lot of questions about whether they're cooking the books.
I mean, so there's a lot of things they correct
to Trump on that may not even be right. So
it did have the field that the moderators were own
her side in such a way that you didn't come across.
(13:20):
I mean, when Trump compliments Dana Bash and Jake Tapper,
I gotta tell you something like that was a fair debate.
They didn't get in there. And frankly, I think if
Trump could get a fair debate, he should do another one.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
That's the challenge is, you know, trying to get a
fair debate, and you know, just seeing sort of even
the media research centers, the studies about how the media
is covered this truncated election cycle, you know, where basically
she's getting almost one hundred percent positive coverage and you
know he's getting almost one hundred percent, you know, negative coverage.
Speaker 2 (13:53):
We've got more with Robert.
Speaker 1 (13:54):
But first, as we approached the one year mark of
the horrific events of October seventh in Israel, the International
Fellowship of Christians and Jews invites you to join them
in Flags of Fellowship, an opportunity for Christians to remember
the victims, honor the heroes, pray for those still held hostage,
and highlight the unwavering support of Christians for Israel and
(14:15):
the Jewish people. On October six, thousands of Christians will
be praying for those impacted by the war and planning
flags across America to honor the victims of October seventh.
Join us and letting the world know that Christians stand
with Israel. Your generous donation today will not only provide
a flag symbolizing or support in churchyards across America, but
(14:36):
will also support the Fellowship's ongoing emergency efforts in the
Holy Land. We cannot stay silent, We cannot stay on
the sidelines as anti Semitism spreads like wildfire. Israel needs
you now visit SUPPORTIFCJ dot org to stand in solidarity
with the Jewish people.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
That's one word. Support IFCJ dot org. Support IFCJ dot org.
Speaker 1 (15:02):
If you would assess where things stand today, you know,
where does this election stand? Honestly nationally because you know
obviously that doesn't really matter as much, but in the
battleground states that are ultimately going to decide the electoral
College outcome.
Speaker 2 (15:18):
You know where do you think this election stands?
Speaker 3 (15:21):
Well, I'll put it to you this way. We kind
of went through this on our latest podcast and people
should check it out polling plus type into polling with
the first podcast it comes up. But we we talked
about we're going to do each one of the battleground
states and uh I did the most recent bowl in Pennsylvania.
I had Trump up by two and I will tell you,
(15:42):
in my experience with the Democrat organization on the ground there,
get out the vote and whatever that entails. Leave that
out there. I don't think two points is enough to
win Pennsylvania, think you better be leading it by more
than two points. So I'd say Pennsylvania is a loss
right now. Michigan, I think I had it that even
(16:07):
Matt Twery's last poe had Trump up by one. That
might be enough, but I think Michigan is only dependent
on what happens with the Middle East and the guys.
The thing ate whether the community of Arabs or Muslims,
and they're actually separate community, not separate communities, but they're different.
(16:31):
Not every one of the Arabs is a Muslim, but
there's one group and they feel very strongly about that,
and depend upon how they feel about Kambala and where
they participate. Probably the Trump two wins Michigan Wisconsin. My
mother recent one had Trump up by zero point eight.
Speaker 1 (16:50):
Which is probably the same problem as Pennsylvania, where you've
got to get above that margin of error.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
If you're going to win a state.
Speaker 3 (16:56):
Like that, I would think you've got to win, you know,
a little bit better than that. Arizona. Arizona is probably
one that Trump can win. Uh. The most recent poll
that Matt did there had I mean, Carry Lake was
only behind by four uh and Trump was up, So
(17:16):
I think I think Arizona is one that could be won.
Nevada I've learned my lesson. I have been had my
butt keep three times trying to say Nevada is going
to vote Republican because what they do the Saturday for
that election, the money before the election, with all the
early voting, and the buses and the vans and and
(17:36):
and frankly just good hard work.
Speaker 2 (17:39):
Well it's the Harry Reid turnout machine, right.
Speaker 3 (17:42):
It is fantastic. I mean, I am envious of what
the Democrats do, so I'm not going to make a call.
I don't care how good it looks Republicans Georgia. I
think George is possible. They've got a lot of things
to tighten things up and George, they haven't addressed be
seen biggest problem in Georgia, which is what had people
(18:03):
watching video of ballot boxes being stuffed and being told
it was fair. What they don't understand was, here's the
problem to the law. If somebody cast fifty ballots and
forty nine are illegal, they're guilty of forty nine counts
of voter fraud. However, all fifty ballots are to be counted.
(18:23):
That is a flaw in the law. And that is
why you saw the video you did, and yet those
weren't illegal balance and they have not fixed that. Now
bringing those ballot boxes inside and their all film, if
people know their own film, I think will limit it.
But that's a real problem and that really should be
(18:44):
addressed by the law. They ought to be able to
go in there when they see that and try to
isolate those those ballots, whether it's fingerprints or whatever. But
if you notice some of those videos, they are wearing
rubber gloves. I mean, they were worried they were going
to do that. So that's a real problem, and I'm
not sure how they handle that, but they have to
do something because it just it's an issue. But I
(19:06):
still think Georgia can be one. And I've never been
a believer that North Carolina is going to go Democrat.
I mean North Carolina has traditionally had I mean they've
Republican everything, even twenty twenty two they said legislative high
water marsh for both the House and the Senate in
(19:30):
North Carolina got super majorities in twenty twenty two, and
they will every Senate seat. Every state went office except governor,
and in the past the past two gumatrolection. They just
had bad candidates, and so even if the candidate for
governor doesn't win, that doesn't mean the state just defaults
to D. So I think North Calaina is going to
(19:52):
go for Trump, and at that point there's got to
be one. And so it really right now, if I
had to save the election today, i'd say it to hers.
Speaker 1 (20:03):
Yeah, because what you just laid out does not get
them to two seventy's.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
Yeah, but what what I mean? And we hear stuff
all the time about the level of organization. The Democrats
are very good at this, and they don't just talk it,
and they don't just put crappy, you know, computer programs
on their phones. They have people on the ground, like
(20:29):
a thousand paid operatives in Georgia for the Republican versus
Democrat runoffs for Senate when they were both up. I mean,
like that's incredible. In the Atlanta airport, like kids wearing
colored shirts gathering up at the airport, all coming in.
I mean, one of a map ran to someone organizing
(20:50):
on Christmas Eve in a hotel conference room when they
were going to have dinner at a hotel. I mean,
this is the this is the kind of dedication they have,
and so I don't see anything on the Republican side
to equal that level of grassroots. And part of it
is the Republican Party's real problem is a bunch of
(21:10):
donor money that goes to people who squandered. There's not
a profit big profit margin to make about organizing grassroots.
No vendor gets rich doing it. But it's the single
most important thing that can be done. And that's that's
that's literally what people who know the system worry about
is there's so much profitteering on the Republican side and
(21:33):
not of attention to winning.
Speaker 1 (21:37):
No, that's that's uh, obviously a huge concern. You know,
you look at some of the fundamentals of this race
in the sense of, you know, the economy is the
number one issue, that's the issue that you know he
does the best on, you know, even uh, even after
the election. You know, CNN's own poll found that, you know,
(21:58):
we're the confidence and have him on the issue of
economy increased after the debate. And then you look at
the other issue of you know, the New York Times
finding that you know, sixty one percent of Americans want
major change from President Biden. You know, the majority obviously
see him as the change. Is that enough to you know,
(22:19):
try to push him closer to two seventy as we
kind of you know, I know you said the race
today is probably hers.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
Or what does he need to do? Do you think?
Speaker 3 (22:29):
Well? I think he needs to do. The campaign is
the one thing that I think has been operated very well.
I mean, whether it's their ads, of their strategy, or
the towns that they can do their rallies. I mean,
they're doing their job extremely well, and I think they
just need to keep on doing what they're doing. The
(22:52):
other thing to remember is the social desirability bias, the
thing that we were very good at predicting in twenty
sixteen of what the difference between what people said and
who they're really voting for. You know, some people call
that the Bradley effect, and that goes back to a
race apparently with governor candidate named Duke Magian and a
(23:15):
candidate named Bradley. He was the mayor of Los Angeles,
and all the Poles said Bradley would win because people
wanted to say they were voting for the African American
candidate because it made them look more open minded, but
they actually voted for Dick Magian. So when you consider
their people who don't want to say they're voting for
Trump alone, and then the fact that they're people who
(23:37):
are saying their voting for Kamala who don't intend to,
there could be a double social desirability bias going on.
So I will hold out the possibility that Trump might
have an advantage in these states that is not seen
right now. But I think that everyone should act as
(23:58):
if he's going to lose right now and redouble their
efforts because it's on the cusp and the energy is there,
and the real people who want this, I mean, look
at the reaction they got going through the Shanks Billed
fire Department. I mean, those are real people, you know,
those are those are just real Americans and not any
(24:19):
particular racial, you know, ethnic, They're just real Americans, firefighters,
and they know who the real guy is. They know
who the real person looking out for them is. So
I mean, I do have hope and confidence that there
may still be a hidden vote out there that we're
not seeing. But I do think that she she came
(24:41):
across as a little bit argumentative and a little bit snarky,
and he made a couple really good points I said
before the one whe he talked about he compared her
to Biden. And then what he said, Well, if you
really want to do this, why don't you just go
down to Washington and get him to sign the stuff
(25:01):
he needs to sign to close the board. I mean
that resonated people like you gotna matter, do it, don't
talk about it, you can get this done today. And
you know that's some of the feedback we got that
that meant something. So I think he I think he
might not have had the best night, but I think
he landed a few little singers that that that will
(25:24):
end up standing the test of time.
Speaker 1 (25:28):
You also look at some of these voter registration numbers,
and you know, Republicans are you know, at least winning
on that game in a lot of these states, especially
when you look at Pennsylvania for instance. Does that maybe
speak to the fact that there might be you know,
sort of headen Trump supporters or new voters that you
(25:49):
know are obviously harder to identify for for Polsters.
Speaker 3 (25:54):
It does. But I will tell you the and we've
always thought this was coming, but I think the Taylor
Swift effect, I mean is going to be is going
to be strong I mean, I'm worried about when Taylor
Swift just asks all of for people. What if she
throws a free concert and all you got to do
is give money to buy I mean to give money
(26:15):
to a Kamala to go. She could do something like
an online concert and you have to give money to
them to be able to log in here. I mean,
who knows what she could do, but I think they
could raise a bunch of money, and I think they
could get a bunch of young ladies that the last
thing on their mind was voting, kind of gen zs
who were just not live there yet and engage them.
(26:38):
But I can say is so far, what we've seen
is is gen Z boys are not big on on
this whole Swift thing. And I do see a real
ethnic divide on the fans of Taylor Swift. So there
may be there may be there may be some wash
(27:00):
fact on that some some people who were our less
likely to go that way.
Speaker 1 (27:06):
We've also seen, you know, a big gender gap between
the two candidates, where so I mean, you know, women
do tend to vote more than men, but you know,
how significant is that gender gap and you know kind
of how does that play in certain of each candidate's
favor or against them as well.
Speaker 3 (27:28):
Well. The gender gap is biggest at the youngest, and
it works. The weapon dissipates. Uh. Gen Z has the
biggest gender gap of all. I mean, it is it
is just dark. Gen Z mails are very different than
millennial males. Gen Z mails are looking for. There's been
(27:48):
so much confusion about what it means to be a
man in this world, and you know, all these phrases
like toxic masculinity and stuff like that. I mean, they
are looking toward towards, you know, a man's man kind
of like Trump. They I mean they are. It's part
of why there's such a huge growth and some even
(28:11):
the the more violent uh you know, fighting sports. I mean,
this group is looking to kind of recapture manhood and
so they see a lot of that in Trump, and
so that is where a lot of it's focused. And
the older we see the people, the less it is
(28:32):
a huge gender gap because what we found is a
lot of for example, married women who have a few children,
they become a lot less focused on abortion and the
right to have an abortion than some of their younger counterparts.
And so it's it is, it is, it is a
(28:55):
significant gender gap. I don't know that it is solvable
at this point with what's baked in, but I do
think that it is useful for motivating the people on
either side because what I would tell you is the
the females are better voters, and so it's the challenge
(29:18):
of the Republicans to get their male counterparts to show
up in that kind of number as well. And I
think it's really possible, and we can see that gap.
And the younger Black community there's a significant gender gap
with them too. I mean, most of the strength that
Trump has with with black voters is black males underpicked.
Speaker 1 (29:39):
Obviously very concerned about her being the president.
Speaker 2 (29:43):
You know, our country would be screwed.
Speaker 1 (29:45):
We've got to take a quick commercial break. More with
Robert on the other side, it looks like Republicans at
the very least are on track to win the Senate.
You know, kind of what have you seen in sort
of the Senate lands escape in terms of Republicans trying
to take back the Senate, And then you know, sort
of what are you saying for the House races and
(30:06):
Republicans trying to retain the majority in the House.
Speaker 3 (30:08):
I've said for a while I think the House is
going to go the way the President's race is going
to go. It's just that tight. Whichever way has the momentum.
I think the Senate's going to the Republicans. I would
say the next best shot, especially if Trump does a
really good job as McCormick. McCormick has run a fantastic campaign.
He's just done. He's just kind of hit all on
(30:30):
all cylinders, and I think that is a chance to
win one. I think that Rogers, if that little age
that Trump can gather in Michigan can be gathered, Rogers
could become up across and depending on how strong immigration plays,
(30:53):
and I think it's going to play big in Arizona,
I could see I see carry Lake. I mean four
points back is not not that far back. And I
think in that state, just on the issue of immigration
and the strong status of immigration, could that could make
(31:14):
a difference, you know, And I would love to tell
you that Sharon Brown could lose. But the problem is
is there's just not any kind of equality in the spending.
And you know, I worried that some of the same
old Mitch McConnell crowd is the one spending that the
pack money again this year, and they were very ineffective
(31:36):
last year. I mean, they blew two hundred and fifty
million dollars to win one Senate seat, and it was
ridiculous some of the support that didn't. I mean, when
you look at how little Blake Masters got, it was insane,
just because Blake said he wasn't going to vote McConnell,
and then all of a sudden he's just isolated and
a lot of money was raised with the promise it
(31:56):
was going to go to Senate races that were on
the cusp dog I handed Lisa Murkowski, who had she lost,
would have only lost to someone more conservative to her
than her. So and that was McConnell. Pay him back
a favor, but he put a lot of donor money
that was supposed to go other places for mccowski. I
(32:19):
would like to believe that there's a better effort this year,
but I don't I so.
Speaker 1 (32:24):
In my opinion, Pennsylvania is the most important state the
selection cycle.
Speaker 3 (32:31):
Becau.
Speaker 1 (32:31):
As he pointed out in the Vadis Finiki, I think Pennsylvania,
with her fracking issue, Trump has the most fertile ground
to try to make his case to the state and
then in pulling thus far, that's been the state out
of the you know, the three blue Wall states that
he's been pulling the best in.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
Is that a fair assessment or you know, I think
so too.
Speaker 3 (32:52):
I think so. Now it's also the state that has,
let's just say the most Shenanians. Yeah, I'm both three,
but I think that it's a state that could break
strongly for him because that is probably there's probably some
buyers remorse. And the thing is, I think the switch
(33:14):
to Kamala really made Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia more competitive.
I'm not sure that switch made Pennsylvania more competitive because
she doesn't have the same appeal to those blue collar
voters that Biden did. I mean, he could generally say
I am one of you and relate to them. I
(33:37):
mean even look look at the peer pressure when they
were all just giving him a hard time of wearing
the Trump hat. I mean, he wants that crowd to
like him, and he sees that as his crowd. Where's that?
I mean, that's just it's just Biden has always seen
himself as one of those people who could relate to
those people who told stories that made sense to them
(34:00):
about how he grew up and how tough things were.
So I just don't think she has that appeal and walls.
He's not going to come across like a regular Midwestern guy.
He's just not regulars Western guys don't don't go to
China that much and do some of the stuff he's
(34:22):
done and take some of the stands he's had. So
I think we also.
Speaker 2 (34:26):
Wanted to put tampons in the boys bathroom.
Speaker 1 (34:28):
So it's like, you know, it's I think, you know,
men are you know that's that doesn't really resonate, you know,
or with all the people that doesn't resonate.
Speaker 3 (34:39):
Certainly, he's going to get the vote of every janitor
because he wants to clean all that up because boys, listen,
I can I can tell you what would have happened
in my school tampons. They would have been very clever
with the art that would have been made in that bathroom. Yeah, yeah,
that's that's that's so Jender vote locked down. So I
(35:01):
think that I think you're right, and I think some
of those issues just will start to resonate. And what
I've seen with some of the these young people are
so some of the memes and stuff they've done, or
are just they dig in so far that people don't
understand how effective that stuff is. I mean, in many ways,
(35:22):
with the built in drifting and corruption of the Republican establishment,
the reason we may survive this election is that the
one to one Republicans out there who find something that's funny,
that's poignant, that that will send a message to somebody
who literally share that repost. That there's millions of people
(35:46):
doing that, and I think that they may be the
secret to the success if it happens well.
Speaker 1 (35:52):
And also, you know, I think you know, some of
these interviews with you know, podcasters, uh, you know, you
you're you know, it's you know, I think what's challenging is,
I mean, the media might end up being the difference
makers the selection cycle in the sense of, you know,
if you're Donald Trump, it's just and especially with the
(36:14):
kind of money that she's been raising, it's very, very
hard to get your message across to the American people
when you're met with you know, that much resistance in
the form of almost you know, like ninety three percent
negative coverage, or you know, with ABC ALAN or you know,
the media at large. The Media Research Center eighty nine
percent negative coverage and her, you know, the complete inverse.
Speaker 2 (36:38):
Where it's all positive.
Speaker 1 (36:39):
I mean that's like it's a very very hard wall
to break through and get your message across to the
American people.
Speaker 3 (36:45):
Oh, the good news is less and less people are
watching that media. Yeah, it's all time low. I mean
this connected TV and people just watching what they want
to watch, and paid services offer a real effective way. Now,
don't get me wrong, Kamala Harris. Uh. You know, whether
I'm at my place in South Carolina that shares the
(37:07):
North Carolna media market the Asheville media market, or when
I'm at my place in Georgia, I see the ads
and I see the tarketing, and he is all over
digital in a way that I do not see anybody
in the Trump team. I mean you can't. You can
go watch YouTube videos about Republicans and all the ads
(37:29):
will be hers. If it's about politics at all, you'll
see all of her. You'll see her ads on YouTube
almost two to one, three to one. I mean just actually,
I'm not it's probably worse than that.
Speaker 1 (37:41):
Yeah, I've seen it. I mean, I guess I've seen
a couple ads from him. But you know, before we
go you know what what should we be you know,
obviously we would love to have you come back on,
you know, before November one hundred percent, but sort of
in the interim, you know what, what should we be
keeping our eyes on?
Speaker 2 (38:00):
You know what are you watching?
Speaker 1 (38:02):
And you know what for those of us who aren't empulling,
you know what, who we be looking at?
Speaker 3 (38:08):
Well? I think you should be looking at a few things.
As far as the polls I like to, I mean,
the real clear politics has put together, you know, averages
of which polling firms are consistently at the lowest air
right and which ones don't. And so Emerson College as
(38:30):
far as the college is a good one to pay
attention to, and h New York Times Sienna is a
good one to pay attention to. It lengths a little left,
but it's a good one. And obviously inside our advantage
and us, I mean we are of the four firms
that do you know, more than ten states, we have
(38:51):
the top four and Emmerson College is on one ahead
of us, and that's cumulative enterprisent years. We're number one
inside manage number two. So those are those are ones
you can keep an eye on. Uh, the stuff you
should probably be dismissive of is what comes from Bloomberg
because that is just in the tank and a lot
(39:15):
of the mainstream media, I mean, ABC is probably one
of the worst. If you remember the I think they're
they're they're ratings for presidential was in the bottom ten percent.
I mean, they're just they're so far off. They have
a margin of area like five and a half, whereas
you know we're all under three from margin air raid
(39:39):
on these things that their air rate is just horrible.
So major network's not so good. And but these these
are pretty good. And and beware of brand new polling
firms you've never heard of that are affecting the averages
just like they dug them up or created them yesterday.
(39:59):
And and then especially go look at at whether a
firm is ranked. Any firm that RCP doesn't even have
in their rankings means that they were so bad that
they that they made a point of not doing a
poll in the last three weeks of any election because
they didn't want to be they didn't want to face
(40:19):
the scrutiny of what they said. Because a lot of
these firms will stop polling within three weeks to make
sure that they don't get counted. And you know, that's
like the kid who tells you he's so smart to
take your test. You know that's a problem. So keep
on the eye all the stuff you can trust and
everywhere everythings you haven't heard, and look for the possibility
(40:40):
of some numbers of people, some social ability byas built in.
But also realize just how good the Democrats to get
out the vote operation is, because it is. Yeah, and
we're going to see just how many yeah newie registered
or you know, registers who should be registered. And the
(41:03):
Democrats thought awful hard prevent that law from saying you
had to get a citizen for a reason.
Speaker 1 (41:08):
Yeah, you know. And CNN had him down by six
in Wisconsin when the last four out of six presidential
races were decided by less than one percent.
Speaker 2 (41:17):
So it's like, you know, obviously that's total bus.
Speaker 3 (41:21):
We had that we had the number one problem Wisconsin
in the entire country in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (41:25):
Yeah, I mean a lot of these most of these
battleground states will be decided by less than one percent
most likely.
Speaker 3 (41:32):
Absolutely.
Speaker 1 (41:33):
Thanks Robert Kaheley. I'm always great to have you on.
Always brings so much insight. Would love to have you
back very soon. Always learn so much from you, so
just really appreciate you making the time. Absolutely it was
Robert Kaheley with the Trafalgar Group. Appreciate him for taking
the time to join the show. Appreciate you guys at
home for listening every Monday and Thursday, but you can
listen throughout the week. I want to think John Cassio,
(41:54):
my producer, for putting the show together until next time.
Host
Lisa Boothe
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