October 15, 2024 • 34 mins
Jason Timpf continues his NBA power rankings with the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets. Jason discusses why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and OKC are ready to make their NBA Finals push after an offseason in which they added Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. Later, Jason breaks down whether Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Denver will avenge last season's playoff failure and return to championship status.
Timeline:
4:00 - Introduction
5:45 - #3: Oklahoma City Thunder
30:30 - #2: Denver Nuggets
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.)
#Volume
Follow Jason Timpf on social:
https://www.instagram.com/jtimpf15/
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. The roller coaster of an NFL season is
moving right along, and it promises to be a month
full of tricks, treats, and of course, touchdowns. DraftKings Sportsbook
and official sports betting partner of the NFL, is the
number one place to bet touchdowns. Running it in from
the one or at eighty yard bomb. We don't care
how they score touchdowns, we want to bet on them.
(00:22):
DraftKings hurt us and is delivering Ready to place your
first bet. Try betting on something simple like a player
to score a touchdown. Go to the Draft Kings Sportsbook
app and make your pick. Super Bowl odds so far
at this point in the season the Chiefs at plus
five hundred. Also the Baltimore Ravens up to plus seven
point fifty is the second favorite to win the Super
Bowl at this point. Here's a reason for new customers
(00:44):
to do a touchdown dance of their own. Bet five
dollars to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Instantly
score big with DraftKings Sportsbook the number one place to
bet touchdowns. Download the Draft Kings Sportsbook app and use
code hoops. That's hops, that's code hoops. For new customers
to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets when you
bet just five bucks only on DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
(01:05):
Gambling problem called one and hundred gambler in New York
called eight seven seven eight Hope and Why, or text
hope and why to four six seven three six nine.
In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling called eight
eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or
visit CCPG dot org. Please play responsibly on behalf of
Boothill Casino and Resort in Kansas twenty one plus age
(01:27):
in eligibility varies by jurisdiction void in Ontario. Bonus bets
expire one hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. For
additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see DKG dot co
slash ft ball. All right, welcome to hoop tonight here
(01:53):
at the volume heavy Tuesday. Everybody hope love you guys
are having a great week so far. Got a jampack
show for you today. We're continuing our season preview series
with number three, the Oklahoma City Thunder and number two
the Denver Nuggets, So two season previews today, You guys
have the trip before we get started subscribe to the
Hoops Tonight YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of
our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore JSNLT so
you guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget about our
(02:15):
podcast feed wherever you podcast under Hoops Tonight, and then
keep dropping mail bag questions in those YouTube comments. We
keep hitting them throughout the rest of the season. Little
little update on how this week's going to go. Before
we get to the regular season opener, which is literally
one week from tomorrow, we will be going live on
YouTube that night, but obviously we still have a bunch
(02:35):
of stuff we need to hit right. So I got
three more season previews to do. We're doing two of
those today. Number one obviously the Boston Celtics, we will
get to at some point later this week. There are
several preseason kind of like check ins that I want
to do on some of our contender tier teams, the
teams in that top eleven that we haven't touched yet
in preseason that I want to get to. I have
Sam Vessini coming on the show later this week. Every
(02:57):
year we do like a debate of our tender rankings,
and so he'll be coming on to do that at
some point later this week, so we will get some
If you're waiting on preseason reaction on one of the
teams that haven't hit yet, we will get to that
later this week. And then obviously we'll have more of
a big picture debate with Sam, and then I've got
these last three season previews, and then next Tuesday, we're
just getting back into the usual routine. Some a good
(03:20):
mix of instant reactions at night after games and then
a lot of that sort of thing in the morning,
a lot of film breakdowns, a lot of the usual
stuff that you are used to. So our last week
of preseason prep this week, and then we'll get into
our routine. So not any further, dude, let's get started.
Number three the Oklahoma City Thunder quick recap of their offseason.
(03:41):
They lost Josh Gitty, Gordon Hayward, and Mike Muscala. They
added Alex Cruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. Nicole a Topic their
first round pick, kind of like a shot creating guard.
I'm not sure how much he'll play this year, but
obviously added to the roster Crusoe and Hartenstein. Alex Crusoe
instantly gives Oklahoma City a perfect fitting five man lineup
for their Chet at center. Looks he's a much better
(04:04):
off ball offensive player than Josh Gitty was. Right. Josh
Kitty obviously is a very interesting on ball shot creator.
We're gonna find out a lot about him in Chicago
this year and what he can do getting better defenders
from the other teams, more of the game plan being
kind of centered around him. We're gonna learn more about
Josh Kitty, but he wasn't necessarily the right fit for
this iteration of the Oklahoma City thunder Right. Alex Russeau
(04:26):
much better off ball offensive player, a better shooter. He's
shot thirty nine percent from three over his last four
seasons on about three attempts per game, and he's a
very active off ball screener and cutter. Those of you
guys who watched our TIMPs tape segment on Friday, we'll
remember some of the clips that I showed you guys
of just ways that Alex like always is moving. He's
(04:48):
always either like cutting into the dunker spot to make
himself available, or screening to get another shooter open, or
relocating on the weak side to try to find an
opening for himself to get a catch and shoot shot.
He is just a very active and productive off ball
offensive players. Then on the other end of the floor,
he's one of the best perimeter defenders in all of basketball.
(05:09):
He's in that top tier of guys that you want
to put on opposing stars. He kind of fits into
this like new archetype that I actually like a little
bit more. I talked about this with Claire to Loon.
If you guys remember the other day when we were
discussing the Defensive Player of the Year stuff, and one
of the things that I was kind of venting about
is like there's a lot of like there's there's a
(05:31):
lot of attention that goes to the lanky perimeter defenders.
Right these are the guys that are like six ' eight,
six ' nine, super long arms, and they're definitely is
advantage there. I'm not gonna sit here and pretend like
that's not an important type of defender, especially against like
pull up shooters, right, like guys that love to get
to their spots and shoot pull up jump shots over
the top. Length has real value. Length has real value
(05:53):
off the ball, playing passing lanes, length has real value.
Covering ground in rotation, length has real value defensive rebounding,
but I've always been more drawn to like the bigger, stronger,
perhaps a little bit shorter types of perimeter athletes. One,
they have the foot speed to still cover ground and
to still help in defensive rebounding situations, but they're more physical.
(06:16):
They're usually able to get away with more in terms
of officiating. And then when it comes to the best
players in the league, I tend to think most of
them are bothered more by physical ball pressure than they
are length in disruption using long arms, and so like,
we've seen this a lot in recent years, right like
the Bruce Brown archetype. Lou Dort is already kind of
(06:37):
doing this for Oklahoma City. Alex Cruso kind of fits
into this mold Christian Brown with the Denver Nuggets, where
it's like six five six six, built like a truck,
can slide their feet and keep guys in front and
chest them up. And then in the more physical NBA
they've actually become a very valuable archetype, especially as the
league has kind of changed the way that they've officiated
(06:59):
and let more of this type of contact go. Alex
Caruso fits that mold perfectly. He's gonna beat guys to spots.
He's gonna bring physicality, he's gonna force them to shoot
over the top, and he just brings that big, physical
perimeter athlete to the table. He's also just a super
smart defender within the team context. He understands game plan,
always does his job. Those are you guys who watched
(07:21):
the our film session last week will have remembered some
of these examples that I'm talking about. But he communicates
really well. He understands like defensive spacing, meaning like where
you want players in help side, like keeping Chet in
a low man position. He'll identify a switch and push
Chet down and make sure that he's in the right spot,
communicating coverages. He's just a massive connective piece, a leadership
(07:45):
piece within a defensive unit. I think he's one of
the best defensive players in the league. He's gonna help
the Thunder a lot. In addition, he just has an
incredibly high motor. He is consistently one of the best
plus minus guys in the league. I went over onto
cleaning the glass today and I just went back through
every single season of his career, every single team he's
ever been on in his entire NBA career has been
(08:06):
substantially better when he's on the floor versus when he's off.
The plus minus splits have been crazy. He is quite
simply one of the very best role players in the NBA,
and it is a huge get for the Oklahoma City
Thunder Isaah Hartenstein. This is a rock solid, starting caliber
center On offense, He's a very good connective piece in
five out concepts. He's a great screener and seiler. As
(08:27):
he rolls to the rim, he seals rim protection away
to create driving lanes. He makes quick decisions on the
ball as he's flowing from side to side in action
keeps the ball moving. He's great at making passing reads.
Like when you're playing in five out concepts, as the
big man is dribbling to one side, you usually have
(08:48):
like a pinned down into a screen or some sort
of like there's two perimetive players. One of them is
usually going to cut and one of them is usually
going to come off of that screen, and a lot
of times defenses will deny the ball or top lock
and it actually triggers those cuts. Right in those situations,
you need a big man who can consistently read and
make those passes. Hartenstein is very good at that sort
(09:09):
of thing. Those are he's good at beating the overplays
that you're gonna see, and then he has just enough
scoring pop to keep the defense honest and to remain
a threat when he needs to score right like, he
can face up and give a really good, hard left
handed drive and get to the basket and finish. He's
got a good floater, like a little left handed floater
that he makes when he's finishing off of short roll
(09:30):
passes in pick and roll. And he's an excellent offensive rebounder.
These are ways that he can keep the defense honest
when guys try to help off of him or overplay
what his teammates are doing. He is a rock solid
starting caliber center in this league. On defense, he's a
perfectly functional defensive center. He's not great at anything, but
he's pretty good at everything. He's a decent shot blocking
(09:51):
rim protector. He's a decent ball screen defender who gets
up to the level and is active with his hands.
He does have a tendency to commit fouls compared to
some of his peers at the center position, but he's
active with his hands. I'd rather be active with your
hands and commit more fouls than completely stand back with
your hands and just let dudes shoot open shots all
game long too. So again, he's not great at it,
but he's okay at it. He's decent on switches. He
(10:13):
was really good statistically on switches in the regular season
last year, and only okay in the playoffs. But overall,
I think he's a fine switch defender. And then he's
a very good defensive rebounder. So these are all things
that make him into just a solid center, which in
the context of what Oklahoma City needs from him, is perfect.
He can anchor bench units, so like some of his
(10:35):
defensive limitations aren't as big of a deal because he's
anchoring bench units. And then when Chet is out there,
it gives okay see a big look. Puts Chet and
help and unlocks a whole other form of defense that
they can get to that they wouldn't be able to
get to otherwise. What does that mean? Why is it
that Hartenstein can unlock more for Oklahoma City defensively because
(10:55):
it allows Chet to operate out of ball screens. Right,
very simple way to put it. If Cheed is at
the five, he's probably going to be guarding fives. Chet
is guarding fives. They're going to bring fives into ball screens,
and his job is going to be to come up
to the level of the screen to handle the ball
handler coming downhill. Most teams now have to bring their
(11:16):
ball handler or their ball screen defender up a little
bit more because so many perimeterive players in the NBA
now are so good at coming over the top of
those screens and hitting shots like contested mid range shots, floaters, threes,
when guys die on screens, that sort of thing you like.
The guard play is just so good, especially in the
Western Conference. You gotta have guys that come up to
the level of the screen, right, And so if the
(11:38):
big man has to come up to the level of
the screen, then he can't be in help. He's not
around the basket as much. Right. In a lot of cases,
it forces you to defend the ball screen three round
two by bringing another defender over to handle the role
man as chet is up at the level and the
role man gets behind him, right, and that low man
in a lot of situations for the Thunder in years past,
was a player that was either not particularly athletic like
(12:01):
Josh Gitty, or not particularly tall like the rest of
the guys in the lineup, right, and that is just
a little bit difficult to work with as a defensive foundation.
Right when Hartenstein is on the floor, you can ask
him to defend the other team center, you can ask
him to defend ball screens. This allows Chet to guard
the weakest offensive player among the one through four spots,
(12:26):
and then in most cases he can operate as a lowman.
What that means is when Hartenstein comes up to the
level of the screen to guard the ball handler and
the screener gets behind him, Chet is the guy that's
on the backside. Very tall, very long, very athletic. He
can help on the role man while also having the
physical tools to be able to recover and guard that
(12:49):
corner shooter. Right. That is the dynamic we're talking about here.
This is what made Yannis one of the best defensive
players in the world. His ability to partner with Brook
Lopez as the hell defender, as the low man who
is not in the ball screen. That is a look
that Oklahoma City basically didn't have before this deal, and
so it unlocks a lot in terms of defensive versatility
(13:12):
for this Thunder team. So two massive role player upgrades
that specifically addressed the three biggest weaknesses that this Oklahoma
City roster had. The three biggest weaknesses were Josh Gitty
was a clunky fit with the starters, good player, just
kind of a bad fit teams regarding him with centers,
and sagging in the paint. It was an issue to
their frontline size. They were a horrific defensive rebounding team,
(13:34):
and they were vulnerable to centers that could throw Chet
around because they were too big and strong for him.
And then three versatility, they just didn't have a ton
of flexibility to change the way they play on either
end of the floor. Crusoe and Hartenstein provide multiple answers
to all three of those issues, the Josh Gitty problem.
Now you have three different five man groups that all
(13:54):
make perfect sense. Shay J. Dow Lou Dort, Crusoe, Chet,
shae jadab Cruso, Chet, Hartenstein, shae jadab Dort, Chet Hartenstein.
All three of those five man groupings are substantially better
fits on both ends of the floor than what they
had to work with last year. Completely solves that problem
frontline size well. Hartenstein makes your front line substantially bigger, stronger,
(14:19):
and more physical. And gives you a two big look
just like fundamentally alters the physical profile of the team.
And then lastly, now you have all sorts of versatility
on both ends of the floor, Cruso gives you optionality
for guarding opposing stars. Like Cruso's a little bit quicker,
Dort is a little bit stronger, right, So like now
you can kind of tinker with who they guard based
(14:39):
on what actually suits their defensive skill sets. Not to
mention you now had Originally you had Lou Dort, let's
call it thirty five to forty minutes a night of
top tier perimeter defense, and then you had other good
perimeter defenders on the team, but not like top tier guys.
Now you have forty eight minutes to top tier perimeter
defense held more than forty eight minutes. If Lou plays around,
you know, thirty thirty five minutes and so plays twenty
(15:00):
five ish minutes a game, you're looking at fifty five
ish minutes of top tier perimeter defense that you're able
to deploy over the course of a game. That's a
real asset. Isaiah Hartenstein unlocks several different styles on both
ends of the floor. On offense, there are five out
concepts you can run now that Hartenstein was better at.
Like Hartenstein, Chet's a better basketball player than Hartenstein. No
(15:22):
one's arguing that, But Hartenstein he's a better screener, he's
a better passers. He's just a little bit more used
to playing that like five out kind of folkrum on
the offensive end of the floor. And so he unlocks
some stuff in the five out concepts that Chet wasn't
able to do. Chet able to run action. Now you're
gonna have to guard Chet with certain types of players
(15:43):
that can deal with his tools. Those types of players
tend to struggle to navigate screens. Now you can have
Chet operating in screening action with the ball in his hands.
We saw an example of that in preseason where he
got a dunk out of it, right, So, like that's
a concept that you can get into Hartenstein high low come.
We saw examples of passers at the top of the
key and Chet and Isaiah Hartenstein screening for each other
(16:06):
underneath the basket to try to create advantage situations. Those
are looks that they didn't have in years past. Isaiah
is a professional big man. Chet is more of a
primitive player that can do big man's stuff. Hartenstein unlocks
some of the stuff that Chet's not particularly good at.
He gives him a bunch more scheme versatility. And then
on defense, as we talked about the two big look,
(16:27):
that's something that they might absolutely need for certain matchups.
Right teams like the Lakers, teams like the Denver Nuggets,
teams like the Minnesota Timberwolves, teams with a lot of
physical power on that frontline, they're gonna need bigger looks.
That's something they can go against. Right bully ball centers
Nikole Jokic, Usuf Nurkic, Demonis Sabonis, even ad to a
certain extent, these are guys that Hartenstein is a better
(16:48):
look for than Chet is. And so there's just so
much more versatility and malleyability with this team on both
ends of the floor. With the signings of Caruso or
the trade for Cruso and the signing of Isaiah Hartenstein.
Other things to watch with the Thunder this year. One
hunting more threes. The Thunder were number one in three
point percentage last year, but they were twentieth and three
(17:09):
point attempts per one hundred possessions. They were top ten
in mid range volume they took eleven mid range shots
per game. So far in preseason, they've only taken eight
mid range shots per game, and they are sixth in
three point attempts per one hundred possessions so far among
preseason teams. So like, they have clearly been trying to
shift their shot profile a little bit. Shay and Jalen
(17:30):
Williams in particular looks like they're looking to take more
pull up threes off the dribble, and again, the pull
up twos are important. Those are big playoff shots. Those
are shots that you can get to consistently. They're coverage beaters.
We've seen Shay, even just in last year's playoff run,
be able to lean on that skill in big moments
to generate offense. No one's saying stop taking mid range
shots altogether, but if you can take it from eleven
(17:51):
to eight and you turn those three into three point
shots or high quality grim attempts, that is an improvement
in your overall shot profile. And I think that that's
something we can keep an eye on. Specifically, Shay and
j Dubb looking for more pull up threes driving kick
decisions is something I want to keep an eye on
this year. The Thunder offense was not great in the postseason.
They had just a one to ten point nine offensive
(18:14):
rating wasn't good in either round as it worse against
the Pelicans, was only one twelve against Dallas and down
substantially from where their regular season efficiency was. It actually
reminds me of some of the stuff that we saw
from Boston in years past, where like they need to
get better at being more deliberate about passing up okay
shots or good like ok ish shots early in the
(18:35):
clock to try to find better shots and then lean
more on the tougher shots in late clock situations when
you have to rim decisions. Was a big issue in
the Dallas series, where guys would beat guys off the
dribble and then try to go make some sort of
crazy contested finish in traffic when there were kickout reads
that were available. Again, but there's a level that Boston
(18:56):
got to last year in addition to their talent, where
they got super deliberate about they're spacing and super deliberate
about their process. Let's beat somebody off the dribble, Let's
make a couple kickout reads, Let's get the ball driving
and kicking and see if we can't get great shots
out of it. That made them more resilient as an offense, right.
I want to see some of that from Oklahoma City,
just getting a little bit more deliberate about chasing great shots.
(19:18):
Chet's perimeter skill development. Two big lineups with Isaiah Harten
sign on the floor will put more stress on Chet's
ability to shoot, dribble or pass. In the playoffs, he
shot twenty six percent from three and had nineteen turnovers
to twenty one. As says he was a rookie. Not
trying to overreact to that, but his development in those
areas will be an important factor in their ability to
(19:39):
actually go to two big looks when it matters, because
if they go too big but they feel like they
can guard Chet, the opponents feel like they can guard
Sheet relatively easily because he hasn't developed enough on the
skill front, then it kind of defeats the purpose if
you just suddenly can't score the basketball, right and as
we saw, the Thunder offense did a bog down at
stretches in the playoffs last year. Keep an eye on
(20:00):
Chets perimeter skill development, and then lastly, what kind of
leap are we gonna get out of j Dub this
year as a rookie, he had fourteen points per game
on sixty percent true shooting. Last year, nineteen points per
game on sixty two percent true shooting in his second year,
and then nineteen points per game on fifty four percent
tru shooting in the playoffs. Where's he gonna get to
this year? Is he gonna get up to twenty two
(20:22):
points a game? He's gonna get up to twenty four
points per game? Is he gonna make an All Star team?
Is he gonna make Is he gonna be in consideration
for All NBA at the tail end of the year.
Probably not, But like, how how much of a development
are we gonna get out of j Dub this year?
How much closer is he going to get to the
idealized version of himself. That's a big variable in how
things turn out for the Thunder this year, because here's
(20:44):
the thing. When push comes to shove, he is the
number two option on a Bona FID Championship contender. A
lot of big moments this year, a lot of big stretches,
a lot of big possessions are gonna rest in Jadubb's hands.
So his development will be a big swing factor for
this team. In summary, on Oka see, I think this
is a total ass kicker of a regular season team.
(21:06):
They have six starting caliber players in a bunch of
different configurations. They have a deep bench of athletic young
players who all play on both ends of the floor
pretty well. They have a bona fide MVP candidate leading
the way in Shag Gildes. Alexander All goes far to
say I would be shocked if they weren't the number
one seed in the West. Like I think they're gonna
be the number one seed. I wouldn't be surprised if
they had a three to four game advantage over the
(21:28):
rest of the field. As far as the playoffs go,
they should feel internally like they have a good shot
to beat anybody out West. Now that they have this
big look, the two big look, it gives them much
more to deal with teams like Denver or Minnesota or
the Lakers. They came extremely close to beating Dallas last year,
and they're more well equipped to beat them now. They
got another big, strong defender to throw at Luca. They
(21:49):
got demolished on the glass in that series. Dallas rebounded
a third of their own misses in that second round series.
You can imagine how much Hartenstein could help with that. Like,
I think I would pick Oklahoma City to beat Dallas
they were to play again this year. They match up
super well with teams that have perimeter speed, like teams
like Golden State and Sacramento rely on like quick guards
to generate offense. Oklahoma City's bigger and faster on the
(22:10):
perimeter than those teams. They're built perfectly for that. They
have length for pull up shooting teams like Phoenix or
New Orleans that They're just built really well. I think
they are a rock solid championship contender. I think they
have as good a chance to win the title as
anybody in the league, aside from maybe Boston, and you
could argue they have the best set of tools to
deal with Boston as well should they meet in the finals.
(22:33):
So I'm super interested to see where they can get to.
I'm super excited to cover them closely this year. I've
always been fascinated by the idea of scar tissue, too,
like how a team responds to a disappointing playoff loss,
Like I mean, they had a lead in Game six
that they could have had a Game seven at home
if they get a stop on that final possession. How
much did that hurt those guys? How much is that
(22:54):
scarring those guys emotionally in the way that they play,
so that when they get out their next time, there's
another layer of desperation and intensity that reflects in the
way that they play like that. That's something I'm just
really curious to see and I to keep an eye
on this year and just how they look heading into
this opportunity where there's some real pressure, all right. Number
(23:30):
two the Denver Nuggets quick off season recap. They lost
in Pavis called Well Pope, Justin Holliday, and Reggie Jackson.
They added dal Ron Holmes. He's a backup center who
got hurt. He'll be out for the season, but a
backup center that I think is fascinating. I'm curious to
see how he turns out in the long run. Dario
Sarch and Russell Westbrook on the Russell Westbrook front, I've
talked about him extensively this preseason, and I'm not gonna
(23:51):
talk about him too much more. He's just a more
volatile version of Reggie Jackson. He'll have higher highs and
he'll have lower lows. That's just the Russell Westbrook experience.
I'm not gonna talk very much about Russ this year.
Nobody can handle it. He's the biggest roarshacked test in
the NBA. You either see it or you don't. I'm
not gonna get into those arguments with people. It's just
(24:13):
not a big enough deal too. I don't think Russ
is gonna make that big of a difference for this
team either way, because they're not going to be closing
games or going down in the playoffs with him on
the floor, and in all likelihood he's a backup guard.
But I just view him as a more volatile version
of Reggie Jackson. If you're interested in more of a
breakdown of Russ, just go back to my breakdown of
(24:33):
the Boston Celtics Denver Nuggets game from the first game
of preseason. Darios rich good backup center option. One of
the things that I've always found interesting with Denver is
their bench units. Most teams defend Denver bench units by switching,
so it kind of turns into Jamal Murray or Aaron
Gordon match up hunting. Dario Sarich gives them another option
(24:54):
to help hunt matchups in those situations. He personally shot
fifty seven percent out of the post Lie year with
Golden State was really good in post up situations, including passes.
It just gives him another option to, you know, send
him up to run a ball scream with Jamal Murray
that probably is going to lead to a switch, at
which point Jamal doesn't have to just attack the big
(25:15):
on the switch, he can also dump it into Dario
Sarge and Darius Sarge can go to work in the post.
Hopefully that generates more rotation situations for them. Denver's bench
has been bad even when they won the title, So like,
there's not really they have nowhere to go but up
on that and on that side of things, and so like,
it just kind of gives it a lot more margin
(25:35):
fair because they're already they've already been so bad on
the bench. Christian Brown moving into the starting lineup, he's
not the offensive player that KCP is. He was four
for nineteen on jump shots in the playoffs. He's one
for eight so far in preseason on jump shots. Most importantly,
the teams aren't guarding him out there when he catch
in preseason, when he's coming off with the starters and
(25:55):
getting dribble handoffs, guys are going underneath the pick and
just basically can seating the shot to him. So he's
gonna need to eventually hit shots more consistently, especially in
terms of just the overall spacing, but he can be
helpful in other ways. He's a big, strong athlete, right
so off ball screening, cutting corner crashes, he's the getting
offensive rebounds just by being a better athlete running out
(26:16):
of the corner, transition pushes, just kind of hitting the
jets in transition when he sees angles. There are ways
for him to compensate for the KCP offensive gap, but
he is a legitimate size and athleticism upgrade over KCP,
and I think Christian Brown is overall a better and
more versatile defender. One of the big things I've been
talking a lot about over the course of the summer
(26:37):
is the concept of keeping Aaron Gordon in help. One
of the issues that Denver has had, especially in the
Western Conference that has all these star forwards, right Like
in the Western Conference, it's like here comes Lebron, you know,
in years past, here comes Kawhi, here comes Kevin Durant.
You know, it's just it's big star forward after big
star forward, and so the option that Denver had in
(26:57):
those cases was to put Aaron Gordon on him because
KCP just wasn't big and strong enough to guard those
kinds of forwards. And as soon as you put Aaron
Gordon on a perimeter defender that is generating shots now
all of a sudden, if the defense skews that way
and you end up in rotation, now on the backside,
you don't have six ' ten Aaron Gordon and help
(27:18):
you have him on the ball, and so your help
side defense just becomes smaller, less athletic, less impactful. By
virtue of Christian Brown being bigger and stronger than KCP
and he is big and strong enough to guard forwards,
that allows you to keep Aaron Gordon and help more frequently,
which will help your defensive rebounding and help your help
side defense and just in general make you bigger and
more athletic a lot. There's a trade off going from
(27:40):
KCP to Christian Brown. I think ACP is a better
player than Christian Brown at this point in his career,
but that gap is smaller than I think people think,
and I don't think Christian Brown going into the starting
lineup is that much of a downgrade. They definitely need
some of these young guys to pop in terms of
just their depth for the regular season. Like Julian Strawther,
he's been shooting the ball well in preseason, how well
is he gonna play this year? Peyton Watson, he's been
dealing with the hamstring injury. Young guys popping will go
(28:03):
a long way towards helping them in the regular season.
But there's no question that this Denver team is a
lot younger and not as deep as they were when
they won the title. We can like hope for a
certain amount of development in progress, but there's really only
one surefire way that Denver can maintain their high ceiling
in this phase of their timeline. In terms of roster building,
(28:25):
Yokich and Murray have to get back to what they
were in twenty twenty three. Both guys declined last year.
Jokicch wasn't as good defensively in twenty twenty four as
he was in twenty twenty three, and he completely lost
the ability to shoot the basketball relative to where he
was a Yokics jump shot in the playoffs last year.
Each single jump shot was worth zero point three to
(28:47):
eight points less per shot than it was worth in
the title year. Think about that, four tenths of a
point per shot worse than what it was when they
won the title, and it became a massive problem, especially
in the Minnesota series, where like he started popping in
ball screens and Minnesota was like, go ahead, shoot it
out there, We're not worried about it. And again that
(29:08):
was a huge part of their offense in the title run.
Yokitch made thirty five threes in the title run and
that doesn't even factor in the fact that he was
driving closeouts in those situations as guys were chasing him
off the line. One more stat to drive this home.
In twenty twenty three, Jo Kich rolls which includes pops,
We're worth one point two six points per possession in
(29:31):
this last playoff run one point zero seven, so two
tenths of a point worse. Converting role possessions spot up
possessions in the title year one point one six last
year in the playoffs one point zero zero, so point
one six points per possession worse. Yo Kich with a
deadly jump shot is by far the best player in
(29:54):
the NBA. Yo Kitch with a broken jump shot is
the best player in the NBA, but by a slim margin,
Like in my opinion, I haven't met number one, but
I think Luca's right there. When you'll get to shooting
forty five percent from three, no one can mess with him.
He's just better than everybody by a wide margin. That's
the difference. And then lastly, obviously that defense and conditioning piece,
(30:17):
where it's like, looks like he ran out of gas
a little bit in the last year's playoffs and guys
were just starting to beat him to the basket, beat
him offensive rebounds, and some of that was He's just
played a ton of basketball over the course the last
couple of years, right, But like him getting back to
defensively where he was in twenty twenty three and as
a shooter where he was in twenty twenty three, that's
a massive influx of talent to this roster and their
(30:37):
ability to win games. Jamal Murray will keep it real simple.
In the twenty twenty three playoffs, he averaged twenty six
points on fifty nine percent true shooting. In the twenty
twenty four playoffs, he averaged twenty one points on forty
seven percent true shooting. Yes, he heard his calf, but
he was already struggling before that happened. The two game
winners against the Lakers salvaged what was a pretty bad
playoff run for him. He had more shot at ten
(31:00):
then points in this playoff runt. So like, if he
can get back in shape, if he can get healthy
and get back to that level, that goes a long
way towards buying them margin for air. So kind of
in synopsis here, everyone seems ready to give up on
the Denver Nuggets. I saw another anonymous executive quote the
(31:20):
other day about how the Nuggets are stuck and overrated
because Michael Porter Junior is a one way player and
Jamal Murray's on the decline and all this kind of stuff.
I obviously still have them as my second best team
in the entire league. So why am I still so
high on the Denver Nuggets. I'm gonna put it in
a very simple way to start. In twenty twenty three,
when Yokich and Murray were at the top of their games,
(31:42):
they demolished everyone. They played good teams loaded with stars
in every round, and they weren't even remotely threatened on
their way to getting the trophy. In twenty twenty four.
Everything went wrong right. They lost depth, they lost Bruce Brown,
they lost Jeff Green. Jokic declined to a certain extent,
Jamal Murray declined to a certain extent. A bunch of
stuff went south for them, and they were still up
(32:05):
by twenty in the second half of Game seven with
a trip to the Western Conference Finals on the line.
And if they would have gotten to the Western Conference Finals,
I would have picked them to be Dallas. They certainly
would have been favored in Vegas. Dallas doesn't have the
front line to deal with Jokic the way that Minnesota
did in terms of like big strong athletes on the
front line that can bang with him, like Denver would
have been favored. Maybe Dallas wins, who knows, but Denver
(32:27):
would have been favored. So, even with everything going south,
they were this close to being favored in the conference
finals to go to the NBA Finals. So, like, think
about how high that is as a floor. The team
was worse by almost every measure, and they were basically
one bad run, a few minutes of bad basketball away
(32:47):
from being favored to go to the finals. That was
so much going wrong. Why is their floor that high?
Because they have the best player in the world by
some margin depending on how well he shoots the jump shot,
and they have a perfectly compliment and starting five Aaron
Gordon is still one of the best four men in
the league. Michael Porter Junior is still one of the
very best weak side spacers in the league who's also
(33:08):
a good health defender and a good defensive rebounder. Jamal
Murray still makes for a devastating two man game with
then Kol Jokich. It's a rock solid foundation and so
if Jokich and Murray can return to form, they can
just be that much better. People are wishing and hoping
on the downfall of the Denver Nuggets, and I'm not
there yet. They accomplished too much last year for so
(33:32):
much going wrong, and I think a lot more is
going to go right this season. They are my pick
to win the Western Conference this year. All right, guys,
that's all I have for today. We'll be back tomorrow
with some preseason reaction, getting to some of the teams
we haven't hit yet. As always, I sincerely appreciate you
guys for supporting the show and I will see you
then the volume. What's so, guys? As always, I appreciate
(33:55):
you for listening to and supporting OOPS tonight. It would
actually be really helpful for us if you guys would
take a second and leave a rating and a review.
As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if
you could take a minute to do that, I'd really
appreciate it.
The volume. The roller coaster of an NFL season is
moving right along, and it promises to be a month
full of tricks, treats, and of course, touchdowns. DraftKings Sportsbook
and official sports betting partner of the NFL, is the
number one place to bet touchdowns. Running it in from
the one or at eighty yard bomb. We don't care
how they score touchdowns, we want to bet on them.
(00:22):
DraftKings hurt us and is delivering Ready to place your
first bet. Try betting on something simple like a player
to score a touchdown. Go to the Draft Kings Sportsbook
app and make your pick. Super Bowl odds so far
at this point in the season the Chiefs at plus
five hundred. Also the Baltimore Ravens up to plus seven
point fifty is the second favorite to win the Super
Bowl at this point. Here's a reason for new customers
(00:44):
to do a touchdown dance of their own. Bet five
dollars to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Instantly
score big with DraftKings Sportsbook the number one place to
bet touchdowns. Download the Draft Kings Sportsbook app and use
code hoops. That's hops, that's code hoops. For new customers
to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets when you
bet just five bucks only on DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
(01:05):
Gambling problem called one and hundred gambler in New York
called eight seven seven eight Hope and Why, or text
hope and why to four six seven three six nine.
In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling called eight
eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or
visit CCPG dot org. Please play responsibly on behalf of
Boothill Casino and Resort in Kansas twenty one plus age
(01:27):
in eligibility varies by jurisdiction void in Ontario. Bonus bets
expire one hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. For
additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see DKG dot co
slash ft ball. All right, welcome to hoop tonight here
(01:53):
at the volume heavy Tuesday. Everybody hope love you guys
are having a great week so far. Got a jampack
show for you today. We're continuing our season preview series
with number three, the Oklahoma City Thunder and number two
the Denver Nuggets, So two season previews today, You guys
have the trip before we get started subscribe to the
Hoops Tonight YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of
our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore JSNLT so
you guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget about our
(02:15):
podcast feed wherever you podcast under Hoops Tonight, and then
keep dropping mail bag questions in those YouTube comments. We
keep hitting them throughout the rest of the season. Little
little update on how this week's going to go. Before
we get to the regular season opener, which is literally
one week from tomorrow, we will be going live on
YouTube that night, but obviously we still have a bunch
(02:35):
of stuff we need to hit right. So I got
three more season previews to do. We're doing two of
those today. Number one obviously the Boston Celtics, we will
get to at some point later this week. There are
several preseason kind of like check ins that I want
to do on some of our contender tier teams, the
teams in that top eleven that we haven't touched yet
in preseason that I want to get to. I have
Sam Vessini coming on the show later this week. Every
(02:57):
year we do like a debate of our tender rankings,
and so he'll be coming on to do that at
some point later this week, so we will get some
If you're waiting on preseason reaction on one of the
teams that haven't hit yet, we will get to that
later this week. And then obviously we'll have more of
a big picture debate with Sam, and then I've got
these last three season previews, and then next Tuesday, we're
just getting back into the usual routine. Some a good
(03:20):
mix of instant reactions at night after games and then
a lot of that sort of thing in the morning,
a lot of film breakdowns, a lot of the usual
stuff that you are used to. So our last week
of preseason prep this week, and then we'll get into
our routine. So not any further, dude, let's get started.
Number three the Oklahoma City Thunder quick recap of their offseason.
(03:41):
They lost Josh Gitty, Gordon Hayward, and Mike Muscala. They
added Alex Cruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. Nicole a Topic their
first round pick, kind of like a shot creating guard.
I'm not sure how much he'll play this year, but
obviously added to the roster Crusoe and Hartenstein. Alex Crusoe
instantly gives Oklahoma City a perfect fitting five man lineup
for their Chet at center. Looks he's a much better
(04:04):
off ball offensive player than Josh Gitty was. Right. Josh
Kitty obviously is a very interesting on ball shot creator.
We're gonna find out a lot about him in Chicago
this year and what he can do getting better defenders
from the other teams, more of the game plan being
kind of centered around him. We're gonna learn more about
Josh Kitty, but he wasn't necessarily the right fit for
this iteration of the Oklahoma City thunder Right. Alex Russeau
(04:26):
much better off ball offensive player, a better shooter. He's
shot thirty nine percent from three over his last four
seasons on about three attempts per game, and he's a
very active off ball screener and cutter. Those of you
guys who watched our TIMPs tape segment on Friday, we'll
remember some of the clips that I showed you guys
of just ways that Alex like always is moving. He's
(04:48):
always either like cutting into the dunker spot to make
himself available, or screening to get another shooter open, or
relocating on the weak side to try to find an
opening for himself to get a catch and shoot shot.
He is just a very active and productive off ball
offensive players. Then on the other end of the floor,
he's one of the best perimeter defenders in all of basketball.
(05:09):
He's in that top tier of guys that you want
to put on opposing stars. He kind of fits into
this like new archetype that I actually like a little
bit more. I talked about this with Claire to Loon.
If you guys remember the other day when we were
discussing the Defensive Player of the Year stuff, and one
of the things that I was kind of venting about
is like there's a lot of like there's there's a
(05:31):
lot of attention that goes to the lanky perimeter defenders.
Right these are the guys that are like six ' eight,
six ' nine, super long arms, and they're definitely is
advantage there. I'm not gonna sit here and pretend like
that's not an important type of defender, especially against like
pull up shooters, right, like guys that love to get
to their spots and shoot pull up jump shots over
the top. Length has real value. Length has real value
(05:53):
off the ball, playing passing lanes, length has real value.
Covering ground in rotation, length has real value defensive rebounding,
but I've always been more drawn to like the bigger, stronger,
perhaps a little bit shorter types of perimeter athletes. One,
they have the foot speed to still cover ground and
to still help in defensive rebounding situations, but they're more physical.
(06:16):
They're usually able to get away with more in terms
of officiating. And then when it comes to the best
players in the league, I tend to think most of
them are bothered more by physical ball pressure than they
are length in disruption using long arms, and so like,
we've seen this a lot in recent years, right like
the Bruce Brown archetype. Lou Dort is already kind of
(06:37):
doing this for Oklahoma City. Alex Cruso kind of fits
into this mold Christian Brown with the Denver Nuggets, where
it's like six five six six, built like a truck,
can slide their feet and keep guys in front and
chest them up. And then in the more physical NBA
they've actually become a very valuable archetype, especially as the
league has kind of changed the way that they've officiated
(06:59):
and let more of this type of contact go. Alex
Caruso fits that mold perfectly. He's gonna beat guys to spots.
He's gonna bring physicality, he's gonna force them to shoot
over the top, and he just brings that big, physical
perimeter athlete to the table. He's also just a super
smart defender within the team context. He understands game plan,
always does his job. Those are you guys who watched
(07:21):
the our film session last week will have remembered some
of these examples that I'm talking about. But he communicates
really well. He understands like defensive spacing, meaning like where
you want players in help side, like keeping Chet in
a low man position. He'll identify a switch and push
Chet down and make sure that he's in the right spot,
communicating coverages. He's just a massive connective piece, a leadership
(07:45):
piece within a defensive unit. I think he's one of
the best defensive players in the league. He's gonna help
the Thunder a lot. In addition, he just has an
incredibly high motor. He is consistently one of the best
plus minus guys in the league. I went over onto
cleaning the glass today and I just went back through
every single season of his career, every single team he's
ever been on in his entire NBA career has been
(08:06):
substantially better when he's on the floor versus when he's off.
The plus minus splits have been crazy. He is quite
simply one of the very best role players in the NBA,
and it is a huge get for the Oklahoma City
Thunder Isaah Hartenstein. This is a rock solid, starting caliber
center On offense, He's a very good connective piece in
five out concepts. He's a great screener and seiler. As
(08:27):
he rolls to the rim, he seals rim protection away
to create driving lanes. He makes quick decisions on the
ball as he's flowing from side to side in action
keeps the ball moving. He's great at making passing reads.
Like when you're playing in five out concepts, as the
big man is dribbling to one side, you usually have
(08:48):
like a pinned down into a screen or some sort
of like there's two perimetive players. One of them is
usually going to cut and one of them is usually
going to come off of that screen, and a lot
of times defenses will deny the ball or top lock
and it actually triggers those cuts. Right in those situations,
you need a big man who can consistently read and
make those passes. Hartenstein is very good at that sort
(09:09):
of thing. Those are he's good at beating the overplays
that you're gonna see, and then he has just enough
scoring pop to keep the defense honest and to remain
a threat when he needs to score right like, he
can face up and give a really good, hard left
handed drive and get to the basket and finish. He's
got a good floater, like a little left handed floater
that he makes when he's finishing off of short roll
(09:30):
passes in pick and roll. And he's an excellent offensive rebounder.
These are ways that he can keep the defense honest
when guys try to help off of him or overplay
what his teammates are doing. He is a rock solid
starting caliber center in this league. On defense, he's a
perfectly functional defensive center. He's not great at anything, but
he's pretty good at everything. He's a decent shot blocking
(09:51):
rim protector. He's a decent ball screen defender who gets
up to the level and is active with his hands.
He does have a tendency to commit fouls compared to
some of his peers at the center position, but he's
active with his hands. I'd rather be active with your
hands and commit more fouls than completely stand back with
your hands and just let dudes shoot open shots all
game long too. So again, he's not great at it,
but he's okay at it. He's decent on switches. He
(10:13):
was really good statistically on switches in the regular season
last year, and only okay in the playoffs. But overall,
I think he's a fine switch defender. And then he's
a very good defensive rebounder. So these are all things
that make him into just a solid center, which in
the context of what Oklahoma City needs from him, is perfect.
He can anchor bench units, so like some of his
(10:35):
defensive limitations aren't as big of a deal because he's
anchoring bench units. And then when Chet is out there,
it gives okay see a big look. Puts Chet and
help and unlocks a whole other form of defense that
they can get to that they wouldn't be able to
get to otherwise. What does that mean? Why is it
that Hartenstein can unlock more for Oklahoma City defensively because
(10:55):
it allows Chet to operate out of ball screens. Right,
very simple way to put it. If Cheed is at
the five, he's probably going to be guarding fives. Chet
is guarding fives. They're going to bring fives into ball screens,
and his job is going to be to come up
to the level of the screen to handle the ball
handler coming downhill. Most teams now have to bring their
(11:16):
ball handler or their ball screen defender up a little
bit more because so many perimeterive players in the NBA
now are so good at coming over the top of
those screens and hitting shots like contested mid range shots, floaters, threes,
when guys die on screens, that sort of thing you like.
The guard play is just so good, especially in the
Western Conference. You gotta have guys that come up to
the level of the screen, right, And so if the
(11:38):
big man has to come up to the level of
the screen, then he can't be in help. He's not
around the basket as much. Right. In a lot of cases,
it forces you to defend the ball screen three round
two by bringing another defender over to handle the role
man as chet is up at the level and the
role man gets behind him, right, and that low man
in a lot of situations for the Thunder in years past,
was a player that was either not particularly athletic like
(12:01):
Josh Gitty, or not particularly tall like the rest of
the guys in the lineup, right, and that is just
a little bit difficult to work with as a defensive foundation.
Right when Hartenstein is on the floor, you can ask
him to defend the other team center, you can ask
him to defend ball screens. This allows Chet to guard
the weakest offensive player among the one through four spots,
(12:26):
and then in most cases he can operate as a lowman.
What that means is when Hartenstein comes up to the
level of the screen to guard the ball handler and
the screener gets behind him, Chet is the guy that's
on the backside. Very tall, very long, very athletic. He
can help on the role man while also having the
physical tools to be able to recover and guard that
(12:49):
corner shooter. Right. That is the dynamic we're talking about here.
This is what made Yannis one of the best defensive
players in the world. His ability to partner with Brook
Lopez as the hell defender, as the low man who
is not in the ball screen. That is a look
that Oklahoma City basically didn't have before this deal, and
so it unlocks a lot in terms of defensive versatility
(13:12):
for this Thunder team. So two massive role player upgrades
that specifically addressed the three biggest weaknesses that this Oklahoma
City roster had. The three biggest weaknesses were Josh Gitty
was a clunky fit with the starters, good player, just
kind of a bad fit teams regarding him with centers,
and sagging in the paint. It was an issue to
their frontline size. They were a horrific defensive rebounding team,
(13:34):
and they were vulnerable to centers that could throw Chet
around because they were too big and strong for him.
And then three versatility, they just didn't have a ton
of flexibility to change the way they play on either
end of the floor. Crusoe and Hartenstein provide multiple answers
to all three of those issues, the Josh Gitty problem.
Now you have three different five man groups that all
(13:54):
make perfect sense. Shay J. Dow Lou Dort, Crusoe, Chet,
shae jadab Cruso, Chet, Hartenstein, shae jadab Dort, Chet Hartenstein.
All three of those five man groupings are substantially better
fits on both ends of the floor than what they
had to work with last year. Completely solves that problem
frontline size well. Hartenstein makes your front line substantially bigger, stronger,
(14:19):
and more physical. And gives you a two big look
just like fundamentally alters the physical profile of the team.
And then lastly, now you have all sorts of versatility
on both ends of the floor, Cruso gives you optionality
for guarding opposing stars. Like Cruso's a little bit quicker,
Dort is a little bit stronger, right, So like now
you can kind of tinker with who they guard based
(14:39):
on what actually suits their defensive skill sets. Not to
mention you now had Originally you had Lou Dort, let's
call it thirty five to forty minutes a night of
top tier perimeter defense, and then you had other good
perimeter defenders on the team, but not like top tier guys.
Now you have forty eight minutes to top tier perimeter
defense held more than forty eight minutes. If Lou plays around,
you know, thirty thirty five minutes and so plays twenty
(15:00):
five ish minutes a game, you're looking at fifty five
ish minutes of top tier perimeter defense that you're able
to deploy over the course of a game. That's a
real asset. Isaiah Hartenstein unlocks several different styles on both
ends of the floor. On offense, there are five out
concepts you can run now that Hartenstein was better at.
Like Hartenstein, Chet's a better basketball player than Hartenstein. No
(15:22):
one's arguing that, But Hartenstein he's a better screener, he's
a better passers. He's just a little bit more used
to playing that like five out kind of folkrum on
the offensive end of the floor. And so he unlocks
some stuff in the five out concepts that Chet wasn't
able to do. Chet able to run action. Now you're
gonna have to guard Chet with certain types of players
(15:43):
that can deal with his tools. Those types of players
tend to struggle to navigate screens. Now you can have
Chet operating in screening action with the ball in his hands.
We saw an example of that in preseason where he
got a dunk out of it, right, So, like that's
a concept that you can get into Hartenstein high low come.
We saw examples of passers at the top of the
key and Chet and Isaiah Hartenstein screening for each other
(16:06):
underneath the basket to try to create advantage situations. Those
are looks that they didn't have in years past. Isaiah
is a professional big man. Chet is more of a
primitive player that can do big man's stuff. Hartenstein unlocks
some of the stuff that Chet's not particularly good at.
He gives him a bunch more scheme versatility. And then
on defense, as we talked about the two big look,
(16:27):
that's something that they might absolutely need for certain matchups.
Right teams like the Lakers, teams like the Denver Nuggets,
teams like the Minnesota Timberwolves, teams with a lot of
physical power on that frontline, they're gonna need bigger looks.
That's something they can go against. Right bully ball centers
Nikole Jokic, Usuf Nurkic, Demonis Sabonis, even ad to a
certain extent, these are guys that Hartenstein is a better
(16:48):
look for than Chet is. And so there's just so
much more versatility and malleyability with this team on both
ends of the floor. With the signings of Caruso or
the trade for Cruso and the signing of Isaiah Hartenstein.
Other things to watch with the Thunder this year. One
hunting more threes. The Thunder were number one in three
point percentage last year, but they were twentieth and three
(17:09):
point attempts per one hundred possessions. They were top ten
in mid range volume they took eleven mid range shots
per game. So far in preseason, they've only taken eight
mid range shots per game, and they are sixth in
three point attempts per one hundred possessions so far among
preseason teams. So like, they have clearly been trying to
shift their shot profile a little bit. Shay and Jalen
(17:30):
Williams in particular looks like they're looking to take more
pull up threes off the dribble, and again, the pull
up twos are important. Those are big playoff shots. Those
are shots that you can get to consistently. They're coverage beaters.
We've seen Shay, even just in last year's playoff run,
be able to lean on that skill in big moments
to generate offense. No one's saying stop taking mid range
shots altogether, but if you can take it from eleven
(17:51):
to eight and you turn those three into three point
shots or high quality grim attempts, that is an improvement
in your overall shot profile. And I think that that's
something we can keep an eye on. Specifically, Shay and
j Dubb looking for more pull up threes driving kick
decisions is something I want to keep an eye on
this year. The Thunder offense was not great in the postseason.
They had just a one to ten point nine offensive
(18:14):
rating wasn't good in either round as it worse against
the Pelicans, was only one twelve against Dallas and down
substantially from where their regular season efficiency was. It actually
reminds me of some of the stuff that we saw
from Boston in years past, where like they need to
get better at being more deliberate about passing up okay
shots or good like ok ish shots early in the
(18:35):
clock to try to find better shots and then lean
more on the tougher shots in late clock situations when
you have to rim decisions. Was a big issue in
the Dallas series, where guys would beat guys off the
dribble and then try to go make some sort of
crazy contested finish in traffic when there were kickout reads
that were available. Again, but there's a level that Boston
(18:56):
got to last year in addition to their talent, where
they got super deliberate about they're spacing and super deliberate
about their process. Let's beat somebody off the dribble, Let's
make a couple kickout reads, Let's get the ball driving
and kicking and see if we can't get great shots
out of it. That made them more resilient as an offense, right.
I want to see some of that from Oklahoma City,
just getting a little bit more deliberate about chasing great shots.
(19:18):
Chet's perimeter skill development. Two big lineups with Isaiah Harten
sign on the floor will put more stress on Chet's
ability to shoot, dribble or pass. In the playoffs, he
shot twenty six percent from three and had nineteen turnovers
to twenty one. As says he was a rookie. Not
trying to overreact to that, but his development in those
areas will be an important factor in their ability to
(19:39):
actually go to two big looks when it matters, because
if they go too big but they feel like they
can guard Chet, the opponents feel like they can guard
Sheet relatively easily because he hasn't developed enough on the
skill front, then it kind of defeats the purpose if
you just suddenly can't score the basketball, right and as
we saw, the Thunder offense did a bog down at
stretches in the playoffs last year. Keep an eye on
(20:00):
Chets perimeter skill development, and then lastly, what kind of
leap are we gonna get out of j Dub this
year as a rookie, he had fourteen points per game
on sixty percent true shooting. Last year, nineteen points per
game on sixty two percent true shooting in his second year,
and then nineteen points per game on fifty four percent
tru shooting in the playoffs. Where's he gonna get to
this year? Is he gonna get up to twenty two
(20:22):
points a game? He's gonna get up to twenty four
points per game? Is he gonna make an All Star team?
Is he gonna make Is he gonna be in consideration
for All NBA at the tail end of the year.
Probably not, But like, how how much of a development
are we gonna get out of j Dub this year?
How much closer is he going to get to the
idealized version of himself. That's a big variable in how
things turn out for the Thunder this year, because here's
(20:44):
the thing. When push comes to shove, he is the
number two option on a Bona FID Championship contender. A
lot of big moments this year, a lot of big stretches,
a lot of big possessions are gonna rest in Jadubb's hands.
So his development will be a big swing factor for
this team. In summary, on Oka see, I think this
is a total ass kicker of a regular season team.
(21:06):
They have six starting caliber players in a bunch of
different configurations. They have a deep bench of athletic young
players who all play on both ends of the floor
pretty well. They have a bona fide MVP candidate leading
the way in Shag Gildes. Alexander All goes far to
say I would be shocked if they weren't the number
one seed in the West. Like I think they're gonna
be the number one seed. I wouldn't be surprised if
they had a three to four game advantage over the
(21:28):
rest of the field. As far as the playoffs go,
they should feel internally like they have a good shot
to beat anybody out West. Now that they have this
big look, the two big look, it gives them much
more to deal with teams like Denver or Minnesota or
the Lakers. They came extremely close to beating Dallas last year,
and they're more well equipped to beat them now. They
got another big, strong defender to throw at Luca. They
(21:49):
got demolished on the glass in that series. Dallas rebounded
a third of their own misses in that second round series.
You can imagine how much Hartenstein could help with that. Like,
I think I would pick Oklahoma City to beat Dallas
they were to play again this year. They match up
super well with teams that have perimeter speed, like teams
like Golden State and Sacramento rely on like quick guards
to generate offense. Oklahoma City's bigger and faster on the
(22:10):
perimeter than those teams. They're built perfectly for that. They
have length for pull up shooting teams like Phoenix or
New Orleans that They're just built really well. I think
they are a rock solid championship contender. I think they
have as good a chance to win the title as
anybody in the league, aside from maybe Boston, and you
could argue they have the best set of tools to
deal with Boston as well should they meet in the finals.
(22:33):
So I'm super interested to see where they can get to.
I'm super excited to cover them closely this year. I've
always been fascinated by the idea of scar tissue, too,
like how a team responds to a disappointing playoff loss,
Like I mean, they had a lead in Game six
that they could have had a Game seven at home
if they get a stop on that final possession. How
much did that hurt those guys? How much is that
(22:54):
scarring those guys emotionally in the way that they play,
so that when they get out their next time, there's
another layer of desperation and intensity that reflects in the
way that they play like that. That's something I'm just
really curious to see and I to keep an eye
on this year and just how they look heading into
this opportunity where there's some real pressure, all right. Number
(23:30):
two the Denver Nuggets quick off season recap. They lost
in Pavis called Well Pope, Justin Holliday, and Reggie Jackson.
They added dal Ron Holmes. He's a backup center who
got hurt. He'll be out for the season, but a
backup center that I think is fascinating. I'm curious to
see how he turns out in the long run. Dario
Sarch and Russell Westbrook on the Russell Westbrook front, I've
talked about him extensively this preseason, and I'm not gonna
(23:51):
talk about him too much more. He's just a more
volatile version of Reggie Jackson. He'll have higher highs and
he'll have lower lows. That's just the Russell Westbrook experience.
I'm not gonna talk very much about Russ this year.
Nobody can handle it. He's the biggest roarshacked test in
the NBA. You either see it or you don't. I'm
not gonna get into those arguments with people. It's just
(24:13):
not a big enough deal too. I don't think Russ
is gonna make that big of a difference for this
team either way, because they're not going to be closing
games or going down in the playoffs with him on
the floor, and in all likelihood he's a backup guard.
But I just view him as a more volatile version
of Reggie Jackson. If you're interested in more of a
breakdown of Russ, just go back to my breakdown of
(24:33):
the Boston Celtics Denver Nuggets game from the first game
of preseason. Darios rich good backup center option. One of
the things that I've always found interesting with Denver is
their bench units. Most teams defend Denver bench units by switching,
so it kind of turns into Jamal Murray or Aaron
Gordon match up hunting. Dario Sarich gives them another option
(24:54):
to help hunt matchups in those situations. He personally shot
fifty seven percent out of the post Lie year with
Golden State was really good in post up situations, including passes.
It just gives him another option to, you know, send
him up to run a ball scream with Jamal Murray
that probably is going to lead to a switch, at
which point Jamal doesn't have to just attack the big
(25:15):
on the switch, he can also dump it into Dario
Sarge and Darius Sarge can go to work in the post.
Hopefully that generates more rotation situations for them. Denver's bench
has been bad even when they won the title, So like,
there's not really they have nowhere to go but up
on that and on that side of things, and so like,
it just kind of gives it a lot more margin
(25:35):
fair because they're already they've already been so bad on
the bench. Christian Brown moving into the starting lineup, he's
not the offensive player that KCP is. He was four
for nineteen on jump shots in the playoffs. He's one
for eight so far in preseason on jump shots. Most importantly,
the teams aren't guarding him out there when he catch
in preseason, when he's coming off with the starters and
(25:55):
getting dribble handoffs, guys are going underneath the pick and
just basically can seating the shot to him. So he's
gonna need to eventually hit shots more consistently, especially in
terms of just the overall spacing, but he can be
helpful in other ways. He's a big, strong athlete, right
so off ball screening, cutting corner crashes, he's the getting
offensive rebounds just by being a better athlete running out
(26:16):
of the corner, transition pushes, just kind of hitting the
jets in transition when he sees angles. There are ways
for him to compensate for the KCP offensive gap, but
he is a legitimate size and athleticism upgrade over KCP,
and I think Christian Brown is overall a better and
more versatile defender. One of the big things I've been
talking a lot about over the course of the summer
(26:37):
is the concept of keeping Aaron Gordon in help. One
of the issues that Denver has had, especially in the
Western Conference that has all these star forwards, right Like
in the Western Conference, it's like here comes Lebron, you know,
in years past, here comes Kawhi, here comes Kevin Durant.
You know, it's just it's big star forward after big
star forward, and so the option that Denver had in
(26:57):
those cases was to put Aaron Gordon on him because
KCP just wasn't big and strong enough to guard those
kinds of forwards. And as soon as you put Aaron
Gordon on a perimeter defender that is generating shots now
all of a sudden, if the defense skews that way
and you end up in rotation, now on the backside,
you don't have six ' ten Aaron Gordon and help
(27:18):
you have him on the ball, and so your help
side defense just becomes smaller, less athletic, less impactful. By
virtue of Christian Brown being bigger and stronger than KCP
and he is big and strong enough to guard forwards,
that allows you to keep Aaron Gordon and help more frequently,
which will help your defensive rebounding and help your help
side defense and just in general make you bigger and
more athletic a lot. There's a trade off going from
(27:40):
KCP to Christian Brown. I think ACP is a better
player than Christian Brown at this point in his career,
but that gap is smaller than I think people think,
and I don't think Christian Brown going into the starting
lineup is that much of a downgrade. They definitely need
some of these young guys to pop in terms of
just their depth for the regular season. Like Julian Strawther,
he's been shooting the ball well in preseason, how well
is he gonna play this year? Peyton Watson, he's been
dealing with the hamstring injury. Young guys popping will go
(28:03):
a long way towards helping them in the regular season.
But there's no question that this Denver team is a
lot younger and not as deep as they were when
they won the title. We can like hope for a
certain amount of development in progress, but there's really only
one surefire way that Denver can maintain their high ceiling
in this phase of their timeline. In terms of roster building,
(28:25):
Yokich and Murray have to get back to what they
were in twenty twenty three. Both guys declined last year.
Jokicch wasn't as good defensively in twenty twenty four as
he was in twenty twenty three, and he completely lost
the ability to shoot the basketball relative to where he
was a Yokics jump shot in the playoffs last year.
Each single jump shot was worth zero point three to
(28:47):
eight points less per shot than it was worth in
the title year. Think about that, four tenths of a
point per shot worse than what it was when they
won the title, and it became a massive problem, especially
in the Minnesota series, where like he started popping in
ball screens and Minnesota was like, go ahead, shoot it
out there, We're not worried about it. And again that
(29:08):
was a huge part of their offense in the title run.
Yokitch made thirty five threes in the title run and
that doesn't even factor in the fact that he was
driving closeouts in those situations as guys were chasing him
off the line. One more stat to drive this home.
In twenty twenty three, Jo Kich rolls which includes pops,
We're worth one point two six points per possession in
(29:31):
this last playoff run one point zero seven, so two
tenths of a point worse. Converting role possessions spot up
possessions in the title year one point one six last
year in the playoffs one point zero zero, so point
one six points per possession worse. Yo Kich with a
deadly jump shot is by far the best player in
(29:54):
the NBA. Yo Kitch with a broken jump shot is
the best player in the NBA, but by a slim margin,
Like in my opinion, I haven't met number one, but
I think Luca's right there. When you'll get to shooting
forty five percent from three, no one can mess with him.
He's just better than everybody by a wide margin. That's
the difference. And then lastly, obviously that defense and conditioning piece,
(30:17):
where it's like, looks like he ran out of gas
a little bit in the last year's playoffs and guys
were just starting to beat him to the basket, beat
him offensive rebounds, and some of that was He's just
played a ton of basketball over the course the last
couple of years, right, But like him getting back to
defensively where he was in twenty twenty three and as
a shooter where he was in twenty twenty three, that's
a massive influx of talent to this roster and their
(30:37):
ability to win games. Jamal Murray will keep it real simple.
In the twenty twenty three playoffs, he averaged twenty six
points on fifty nine percent true shooting. In the twenty
twenty four playoffs, he averaged twenty one points on forty
seven percent true shooting. Yes, he heard his calf, but
he was already struggling before that happened. The two game
winners against the Lakers salvaged what was a pretty bad
playoff run for him. He had more shot at ten
(31:00):
then points in this playoff runt. So like, if he
can get back in shape, if he can get healthy
and get back to that level, that goes a long
way towards buying them margin for air. So kind of
in synopsis here, everyone seems ready to give up on
the Denver Nuggets. I saw another anonymous executive quote the
(31:20):
other day about how the Nuggets are stuck and overrated
because Michael Porter Junior is a one way player and
Jamal Murray's on the decline and all this kind of stuff.
I obviously still have them as my second best team
in the entire league. So why am I still so
high on the Denver Nuggets. I'm gonna put it in
a very simple way to start. In twenty twenty three,
when Yokich and Murray were at the top of their games,
(31:42):
they demolished everyone. They played good teams loaded with stars
in every round, and they weren't even remotely threatened on
their way to getting the trophy. In twenty twenty four.
Everything went wrong right. They lost depth, they lost Bruce Brown,
they lost Jeff Green. Jokic declined to a certain extent,
Jamal Murray declined to a certain extent. A bunch of
stuff went south for them, and they were still up
(32:05):
by twenty in the second half of Game seven with
a trip to the Western Conference Finals on the line.
And if they would have gotten to the Western Conference Finals,
I would have picked them to be Dallas. They certainly
would have been favored in Vegas. Dallas doesn't have the
front line to deal with Jokic the way that Minnesota
did in terms of like big strong athletes on the
front line that can bang with him, like Denver would
have been favored. Maybe Dallas wins, who knows, but Denver
(32:27):
would have been favored. So, even with everything going south,
they were this close to being favored in the conference
finals to go to the NBA Finals. So, like, think
about how high that is as a floor. The team
was worse by almost every measure, and they were basically
one bad run, a few minutes of bad basketball away
(32:47):
from being favored to go to the finals. That was
so much going wrong. Why is their floor that high?
Because they have the best player in the world by
some margin depending on how well he shoots the jump shot,
and they have a perfectly compliment and starting five Aaron
Gordon is still one of the best four men in
the league. Michael Porter Junior is still one of the
very best weak side spacers in the league who's also
(33:08):
a good health defender and a good defensive rebounder. Jamal
Murray still makes for a devastating two man game with
then Kol Jokich. It's a rock solid foundation and so
if Jokich and Murray can return to form, they can
just be that much better. People are wishing and hoping
on the downfall of the Denver Nuggets, and I'm not
there yet. They accomplished too much last year for so
(33:32):
much going wrong, and I think a lot more is
going to go right this season. They are my pick
to win the Western Conference this year. All right, guys,
that's all I have for today. We'll be back tomorrow
with some preseason reaction, getting to some of the teams
we haven't hit yet. As always, I sincerely appreciate you
guys for supporting the show and I will see you
then the volume. What's so, guys? As always, I appreciate
(33:55):
you for listening to and supporting OOPS tonight. It would
actually be really helpful for us if you guys would
take a second and leave a rating and a review.
As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if
you could take a minute to do that, I'd really
appreciate it.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.