Jason Timpf discusses how Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and the Dallas Mavericks' offense will operate on offense against Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and the Boston Celtics' defense. How can Boston look to slow down a seemingly unstoppable Luka? Later, Jason breaks down film from prior Celtics-Mavericks matchups this season to determine who has the edge in the NBA Finals. #Volume
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terms and responsible gaming resources. All right, welcome to up
(02:08):
tonight here at the volume, Happy Tuesday, everybody, hope all
if you guys are having a great start, to your week.
We're moving on to Dallas on the offensive side of
the ball as we continue our NBA Finals preview. Don't
forget we also have the Nerd Sash guys coming on
tomorrow and then tomorrow morning, I have a separate video
that I'm recording after this where I'm going to go
over my actual predictions and what I expect to see,
kind of in more of a big picture view of
(02:31):
this series. So final prediction and taking all that stuff
tomorrow morning. Today we're doing Dallas on the offensive end
of the floor. You guys know the Joe before we
get started. Subscribe to the Hoops to I YouTube channel
so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow
me on Twitter at Underscore jsonlt so you guys don't
miss show announcements. Don't forget about our podcast feed wherever
you get your podcast under Hoops tonight, and then keep
dropping mailbag questions and the YouTube comments so we can
(02:51):
keep hitting them throughout the rest of the series as
well as into the off season. My game plan in
terms of like the day to day breakdown as we
get into the series, since there's three day sequences, we're
gonna be covering the games the night of in like
instant reaction format with Colin Coward. Then I'm gonna do
like a film session the following morning that kind of
digs deeper into the x's and o's, and I think
(03:11):
that next day we just do a mailbag kind of
like final centric mailbags. I think that'd be fun. So
that's gonna be a game plan as we go through.
We'll have some special guests too. I plan on having
I'm move in the same Vassini interview that we were
gonna do yesterday. We're gonna move it into the series
so we can do more kind of focused on adjustments
and things along those lines, which should be fun. All right,
let's talk some basketball, So we're gonna go similar to
(03:33):
what we did yesterday. We're gonna do kind of the
monologue up front where we go everything verbally, and then
I have twenty two clips of film that we're gonna
look at the tail end of the show to kind
of go over these specific things that we're talking about.
Dallas had a one ten offensive rating in both games
that they played this year. The January twenty second game
in the March first game. Boston guarded them well overall,
(03:53):
but Dallas also didn't shoot particularly well in terms of
just what they were getting at the end of those plays. Right.
They were twenty for seventy four from three overall, which
is just thirty one percent. They were twenty one for
sixty nine on open and wide open threes, which means
all the threes where the defender was at least four
feet away when the shot was taken. That's just thirty percent,
(04:14):
and you expect that to be more in the high thirties. Right. So,
like in general, Boston defended well, but it's also important
to point out that Dallas didn't shoot particularly well. Luca
did light them up. Light them up specifically in the
March first game, he had thirty seven points on fifty
six percent shooting, eleven assists with two turnovers. Kyrie in
that game had a good night on the ball, but
was really missing his off ball attempts that kind of
(04:36):
hurt his shooting stats. Both of them had rough nights
in the January game. Boston had them in a really
uncomfortable position throughout. They had just fifty six points on
fifty shots in that particular game. So we're gonna talk
mostly about matchups and who can guard who when it
pertains to this side of the floor. The main reason
why is like Dallas will run some stuff like they'll
(04:59):
run some stack and roll where you backscreen for the
role man as he's going to the basket. They'll run
some double drag where the first guy will roll, the
second guy will pop, stuff like that. But for the
most part, this is a brute force for out one
in offense. What that means is, for the most part,
it's once Luca gets whatever matchup he wants, it's just
here comes the ball screen, right, and it'll look a
(05:20):
little funky because Boston's gonna do some weird stuff with
the matchups that we're going to talk about in a
little bit, But for the most part, it's just spread
the floor, get the on ball matchup you want. Here
comes the ball screen corner, three point shooter in the
left corner, corner, three point shooter in the right corner.
Guy roll into the basket and shoot her up on
the right wing. Right. That's just the kind of general
layout that Dallas is going to go with, and even
(05:41):
with even when they run action that doesn't involve the center,
which is going to be a substantial part of this
series because I think that Boston will put Tatum on
the center a lot, which we're going to talk about
in more detail here in a minute. In those situations,
it's still the same spacing. It's instead of having a
shooter up on the wing, that guy ends up being
the guy who's setting the screen. You have your two
(06:02):
shooters in the corner, and then Livelier or Gafford will
just kind of be parked in the dunker spot. And
then that when Luca gets downhill, it's the same kind
of concept as what he's doing in a drop coverage.
He's trying to manipulate the rim protector into leaving Livelier
Gaffer to step over and help so that Luca can
throw that lob pass. So even when it turns into
(06:22):
different variations of the angle that they look to attack
the defense, it still is more or less the same
configuration in terms of their spacing, which is kind of
just the way Dallas runs runs offense. Right, they're the
textbook heliocentric modern layout of offense that involves more primary
shot creation, right, Like those are the two kind of
(06:43):
schools of thought, Right, Like, get a couple of great
shot creators and a bunch of play finishers. And run
four out, or get a bunch of guys who can
do everything and run five out and keep everybody involved. Right,
those are kind of like the main two functions. So
let's talk about these specific matchups that I expect to
see in this series. So, for Luca, Brown will most
likely get the start. He got it in both games
in the regular season. He's the best combination of on
(07:06):
the ball strength to disrupt Luca's base, the length to
disrupt pull up shooting, and also the best option in
terms of keeping size on the back line. That's key
because when we talk about potential options that involve Tatum
on the ball, it just makes it so that Boston's
pretty small on the back line, and I'll show you
some examples in film where that can burn them. Right. So,
(07:27):
I think Jaylen Brown's going to get the start, But
to be clear, everyone's going to see time on Luca
because Boston concedes guard guard switch guard guard switches really easily.
So like if Kyrie has Drew Holliday on him and
he runs up at the beginning of the possession and
just sets a brush screen on Jlen Brown, They're just
going to concede the switch. And now Luca's got Drew
Holliday on him. So like, even though Jaln Brown is
(07:47):
probably the best option, I think Luca's gonna be able
to get really whoever he wants. And you'll notice when
we get to the Keys. That's something that I'd like
to see Boston fight against. But we'll see what they
end up doing when we get into the series. For Kyrie,
Drew Holliday got to start in both games. Derek White
did spend a good amount of time on him, especially
in some of the bench groups, but Drew did a
better job, which you guys will see on film. Also,
(08:08):
like Derek White is best if you have to choose
between those two guys, which is the better off ball player? Defensively,
that Derek White shot blocking piece, He's got the length,
he's got excellent instincts. He can really offer some help
at the rim and be a problem. So in addition
to Drew just kind of being a better option on
the ball because he's more physical, He's just like I
(08:29):
think Kyrie's more bothered by physicality than the length. Anyway,
I don't think Kyrie really sees contests, So like, Drew's
a better matchup for Kyrie but it also is smart
because it keeps Derek White off the ball as much
as possible. But Derek White will see time on Kyrie
as well, which you guys will see on film. Kyrie
seemed to be pretty comfortable getting to his spots against
Derek White, though Derek Jones Jr. Will see the other
(08:51):
guard in this case Derek White, right. And again that's
a perfect spot because if Derek Jones is spotting up
in the corner, you like having Derek White there to
be able to make help side rotations at the rim.
And lastly, the PJ. Washington and then Gafford Lively front
court in the regular season. Now Lively started in the
regular season game, but in the regular season Boston started
with Tatum on Derek Lively. Now, but if you guys
(09:13):
remember in the Pacers series, the Celtics did a similar
thing where they started Tatum on Miles Turner in the
regular season, but then when they started the series they
started Horford on him and then adjusted to Tatum on
Turner over the course of the series. It was like
it was like right before halftime of Game one, if
I remember correctly. So what that means is, don't be
(09:34):
surprised if we see Porzingis on Gafford to start the series,
but this will eventually end with Porzingis on PJ. Washington
and Tatum on the center. And there's a very specific
reason why Boston wants to do that when Tatum is
on the center. As we talked about so much coming
(09:55):
into the series in the mailbag, any pick and roll
just ends up with the switch, right, So like, if
Tatum is guarding, if Tatum is guarding Daniel Gafford to
start the series, and let's say Jalen Brown is on Luca,
all you're accomplishing by running that action is now Tatum,
Boston's best and most versatile defensive player is now on Luca.
That doesn't accomplish much and Daniel Gaffer's not going to
(10:17):
be able to post up Jalen Brown, right, So like
that just kind of mitigates any sort of success from
that specific action. Right. Also, like if you put Porzingis
on PJ. Washington, now when PJ. Washington comes to set
the screen, when Porzingis sits into his drop coverage, no
matter what PJ. Washington does, it is a much lower
(10:40):
value play than anything Gafford could do in a ball screen.
What I mean by that is, if you are PJ.
Washington and you're spotting up often, you're in the corner. Right. PJ.
Washington has been a very good corner three point shooter
in this postseason run. He's shooting forty one point two
percent on threes out of either corner, but he's twenty
(11:01):
nine point five percent on above the break three So
bad above the break less than a point per shot.
Great from the corners up over one point two points
per shot. Right. So, now imagine the geometry of a
ball screen. Right, So if PJ. Washington comes and sets
the screen, because Luca doesn't want to bring up Gafford
because all he's doing is getting Tatum on a switch,
(11:23):
which is not advantageous for Luca. Right, So he's probably
not going to bring Gafford into the screen as much
he's gonna bring PJ. Washington because he wants to try
to target Porzingis in a drop coverage. Right. So, if PJ.
Washington comes up and sets the ball screen and Luca
gets Jylen Brown onto his tail side, or even if
he gets a guard like Drew Holiday or Derek White,
(11:45):
same thing, they're on his backside as he's working downhill.
But let's look at it through. Let's look at it
through three different situations. What if PJ rolls. If PJ rolls,
he's not the kind of vertical spacer that Daniel Gafford
and Derek Lively are. With Daniel Gaffer and Derek Lively,
there's a huge passing window that Luca can hit and
(12:05):
he can go high way above Porzingis's arms if he
lunges over to try to block the shot, and Gafford
and Lively can dunk anything, right, Like that's what we
saw Luca doing to Rudy Gobert. All sees a series
long right, just kind of baiting him into no man's land,
getting that lob pass over the top, and it's just
such a big passing window. Even when Gilbert would like
kind of lean back and try to block it, Gafford
(12:28):
was just so high above the rim, right, PJ. Washington
is not that type of vertical spacing threat. In addition
to that, you are rolling into the lane or Jason
Tatum is gonna be waiting because he's guarding the center,
and the center is gonna be in the dunker spot
because it's a non shooter, which is going to put
Tatum in a position where he can effectively help Porzingis.
(12:49):
So now what you can do is Porzingis can be
more aggressive towards Luca in the ball screen, because as PJ.
Washington is rolling downhill, Tatum's kind of in that no
man's land. And if it like obviously Luca will have
the ability to try to throw lobs the Gafford and Lively,
but it's just a lot of congestion down there, and
Tatum can try to bait that lob pass into PJ.
(13:11):
Washington and try to break that up. Right, So the
role from PJ. Washington, just to put it simply, is
a more difficult situation for Luca to manage in terms
of his decision making than if it was a vertical
spacer like Daniel Gafford or or Derek Lively. Right now,
what if PJ. Washington pops. You can't pop to the corner.
(13:33):
That's not how it works, right Like, if these ball
screens are being run above the break, and in all likelihood,
if Luca is gonna be trying to work downhill into
the lane, PJ. Washington's gonna be popping close to the
top of the key. Most of the time, that's a
spot where he shoots twenty nine point five percent on
those particular threes. Right, So, like a couple things. First
(13:54):
of all, my guess is that the staff for Dallas
is gonna have PJ. Washington all week long practicing pick
and pops. It's gonna be a completely different type of
offensive series for him because he's just going to have
to be able to either knock down that three or
drive that close out and make stuff happen off of
the bounce. It's gonna be a lot of pressure on PJ.
(14:15):
Washington to produce offensively. And then, lastly, if PJ. Washington
is spacing, so let's say that Luca gets a matchup
that he likes. Let's say he gets Derek White on
a switch and he decides to start going to the post.
Right now, if PJ. Washington goes in spaces to the corner,
which is where he is most successful as a shooter,
that is, of all of the five to three point spots, corner, corner, wing, wing,
(14:38):
top of the key, of all those five spots, that's
the easiest rotation for porzingis to make. He can stand
one foot outside of the block and lunge into the
lane to help or close out to the corner, and
it's a shorter close out than if he had to
go all the way above the break. So, no matter what,
by putting Porzingis on PJ. Washington, it helps Boston tilt
(14:58):
Dallas's offense towards their life or value shots, which is
either you're gonna attack Tatum in a switch in a
ball screen, which is not a good idea, or you're
going to bring Porzingis into the action, which is going
to force PJ. Washington to be a role man or
to be an above the break three point shooter, which
are the two things that he's not doing as well
in this particular postseason run. So that's kind of why
(15:20):
I expect to see a lot of Porzingis on PJ.
Washington over the corner over the course of the series.
Let's talk about Luca though. In general, I think Boston's
gonna be able to guard Kyrie pretty well. They have
excellent guard defenders. He's gonna hit shots and he'll find
ways to contribute, but they should be able to limit
his efficiency to a certain extent. But they don't really
have anybody that can guard Luca except for Jason Tatum,
(15:42):
and you guys will see on film Luca has some
success against Jason Tatum as well. We saw this in
the Minnesota series. Just think about it from a really
basic standpoint, like Minnesota had Jada McDaniels and Rudy Gobaer
and another big forward in Karl Anthony Towns on the
back line to kill Alexander Walker, Anthony Edwards, Kyle Anderson.
They just had a plethora of prim defenders, a ton
of length, one of the best rim protectors in the league.
(16:02):
Say what you want about Rudy Gobert, he is a much, much,
much much better defensive player than both chrisps Porzingis and
Al Horford. It's just a totally different stratosphere. Like Gobert
is somewhere around the fifth best defender in the world,
and Porzingis and and Horford are just not in most
conversations right, So, like Luca's gonna be comfortable. Specifically, even
(16:23):
though Jalen Brown is the best option I think for
Boston in terms of keeping the geometry of the floor
good for them, He's not big enough. Drew Holliday is
not big enough, Derek White's not big enough. It's just there.
He's going to be comfortable. I think he's gonna have
success getting to his spot. So the question is, if
you're Boston, how do you make life harder on Luca?
(16:45):
First of all, I put down I put down two
specific things that we're gonna hit on. First of all,
make him work against your tougher matchups. So make him
work against Tatum and Brown. What that means is, don't
concede switches so easily. You guys are gonna see a
lot of examples in the film where it's just there's
there's no attempts to try to fight through a basic
guard guard screen at the beginning of an action and
(17:05):
Luca gets the matchup he wants like this, and then
he goes to work. There's a certain tendency with Luca too,
when he calls for those types of screens. He'll call
for him like like thirty thirty five feet from the basket,
and honestly, the only purpose the screen serves is to
get a switch. Luca's not like trying to turn the
corner quickly in those situations. So like, just fight through them,
just fight through them. And I don't even think you
(17:26):
necessarily have to hedge considering, I don't think Luca's gonna
really look to attack that often in those situations, So
just fight through those switches. Eventually you'll get later in
the clock where if Luca walks it up and there's
fifteen seconds on the shot clock by the time he
calls the first guard guard screen and you fight through
two of them, and all of a sudden there's nine
on the shot clock, he's just gonna look to go.
And so I think by doing simple stuff like that,
(17:47):
you can push them into late clock situations where you
can play them into their lower value shots. And then lastly,
just Porzingis in those defensive coverages needs to favor Luca
instead of favoring PJ. So for ends, since if PJ
does roll to the basket, there was an example to
show you guys, it's the first possession. It's actually the
first clipper looking at where Porzingis was a little too
(18:08):
keyed in on PJ Washington and he allowed Luca to
get an easy bank shot. Like when you have the PJ.
Washington matchup, you need to make PJ score there, and
you need to make Luca make tighter window passes to
a lesser vertical spacer and to above the break three
point shooter that struggles to make the shot. So that's
an example where Porzingis can be more aggressive in pick
(18:31):
and roll. But in general, again, just make him shoot
against your bigger forwards, make him try to score over
the top of Porzingis, or make those tight, tighter window passes.
I think that's how you can plow play him into
his lower efficiency keys for both teams. Again, for Dallas,
get favorable matchups. For Luca, get the ball up the
floor quickly so you don't end up in late clock
(18:51):
situations for on guard guard screens to get Drew or
Derek switched on to Luca before running the ball screen.
Take advantage of Boston being lazy when they want to
be lazy in those situations. One other thing that I
think they should experiment with is as long as they
have Tatum on Gafford lively and they're willing to switch
that action, it might be interesting to see if and
(19:11):
I don't mean this as a score, I don't want
Luca trying to score on Tatum. I think that would
wear them out. It just would be too difficult over
the course of the series. But I think if this
more is Luca functioning as a passer. What if he
goes after Tatum and switches, gets Tatum on the ball,
and then looks to run another action where he can
get guys slipping out of the action into the back line,
because the back line when Tatum's not there is substantially smaller.
(19:33):
Luke like Tatum is the only real big forward that
they have. Jalen Brown to me, is more of a
smaller forward. And then they've got their centers right, So
like if you put them in a situation where they're
smaller players on the back line, just imagine you have
Tatum on Luca and then you bring Porzingis into the
ball screen. You have their two biggest players out at
the three point line. Quick slipping out of that and
(19:55):
hitting passes will allow guys to attack that Boston back
line when they're and again, I have some clips that
I'll show you guys that will demonstrate that. And then lastly,
just they need Kyrie to produce. Like he's gonna have
tough matchups. He's gonna have some opportunities to attack and
drop coverage, but he's gonna have good defenders on him consistently.
If he can produce Obviously, that just gives more margin
(20:17):
for air to everything else that Dallas does on the
Boston front, physical ball pressure again, just fatiguing and attacking
the base. We saw that with Lou Dort have some
effect against Luca. Against Luca in the second round, avoiding
switches as much as possible. Again, I think just something
simple like Jaylen Brown fighting through one or two guard
screens at the start of a possession can get Dallas
(20:38):
into late clock situations and make things harder for them offensively.
And then lastly, tilt Dallas's offense toward lower value shots
above the rake threes for role players, Luca's shot attempts
against Tatum and Brown instead of the smaller guards. And
then one of the things you'll see in the in
the film too is like Kyrie does have some success
attacking and drop coverage, and one of the easy ways
(21:01):
to kind of fight against that is in the Kyrie
led units, when it's all bench groups out there, maybe
go smaller and lean into switching and at least forced
Kyrie to attack good defensive players in isolation. The volume
The volume. We're this close to crowning a new NBA champ,
and with the action heating up on the court, it's
even hotter. At Draftking Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner
of the NBA. There's only so many games left, and
DraftKings Sportsbook has you covered with same game parlays, live
betting odds, boosts, and so much more. Don't miss out
or you'll have to wait until next NBA season to
(00:22):
place your bets. It's super easy for first timers to
get started. Try betting on something simple like picking a
team to win. Go to the Draftking Sportsbook app, select
your squad and place your first bet. It's that simple.
The odds for the NBA Finals are up on DraftKings
right now. You can get Boston at minus two twenty
to win the title. Dallas is at plus one seventy five.
(00:42):
New to DraftKings listen up. New customers can get a
no sweat bet up to fifteen hundred bucks. Just deposit
at least five bucks and you'll get a bonus bet
back equal to your first bet if it doesn't hit.
Download Draft Kings Sportsbook app now and use code hoops.
That's code hoops hoops for new cust to get a
no sweat bet up to fifteen hundred bucks if your
(01:03):
first bet doesn't hit only on DraftKings, the crown is yours.
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or in West
Virginia visit www dot one eight hundred gambler dot net.
In New York, call eight seven seven eight hope and why,
or text hope and why to four six seven three
six nine. In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling.
(01:23):
Call eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven
seven or visit CCPG dot org. Please play responsibly on
behalf of Boothill Casino and resort In Kansas twenty one
plus age varies by jurisdiction. Void in Ontario. One no
sweat bet per new customer issued as one bonus bet
based on amount of initial losing bet. Bonus bets expire
(01:46):
one hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. See DKANG
dot co slash bball for eligibility, wagering and deposit restrictions,
terms and responsible gaming resources. All right, welcome to up
(02:08):
tonight here at the volume, Happy Tuesday, everybody, hope all
if you guys are having a great start, to your week.
We're moving on to Dallas on the offensive side of
the ball as we continue our NBA Finals preview. Don't
forget we also have the Nerd Sash guys coming on
tomorrow and then tomorrow morning, I have a separate video
that I'm recording after this where I'm going to go
over my actual predictions and what I expect to see,
kind of in more of a big picture view of
(02:31):
this series. So final prediction and taking all that stuff
tomorrow morning. Today we're doing Dallas on the offensive end
of the floor. You guys know the Joe before we
get started. Subscribe to the Hoops to I YouTube channel
so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow
me on Twitter at Underscore jsonlt so you guys don't
miss show announcements. Don't forget about our podcast feed wherever
you get your podcast under Hoops tonight, and then keep
dropping mailbag questions and the YouTube comments so we can
(02:51):
keep hitting them throughout the rest of the series as
well as into the off season. My game plan in
terms of like the day to day breakdown as we
get into the series, since there's three day sequences, we're
gonna be covering the games the night of in like
instant reaction format with Colin Coward. Then I'm gonna do
like a film session the following morning that kind of
digs deeper into the x's and o's, and I think
(03:11):
that next day we just do a mailbag kind of
like final centric mailbags. I think that'd be fun. So
that's gonna be a game plan as we go through.
We'll have some special guests too. I plan on having
I'm move in the same Vassini interview that we were
gonna do yesterday. We're gonna move it into the series
so we can do more kind of focused on adjustments
and things along those lines, which should be fun. All right,
let's talk some basketball, So we're gonna go similar to
(03:33):
what we did yesterday. We're gonna do kind of the
monologue up front where we go everything verbally, and then
I have twenty two clips of film that we're gonna
look at the tail end of the show to kind
of go over these specific things that we're talking about.
Dallas had a one ten offensive rating in both games
that they played this year. The January twenty second game
in the March first game. Boston guarded them well overall,
(03:53):
but Dallas also didn't shoot particularly well in terms of
just what they were getting at the end of those plays. Right.
They were twenty for seventy four from three overall, which
is just thirty one percent. They were twenty one for
sixty nine on open and wide open threes, which means
all the threes where the defender was at least four
feet away when the shot was taken. That's just thirty percent,
(04:14):
and you expect that to be more in the high thirties. Right. So,
like in general, Boston defended well, but it's also important
to point out that Dallas didn't shoot particularly well. Luca
did light them up. Light them up specifically in the
March first game, he had thirty seven points on fifty
six percent shooting, eleven assists with two turnovers. Kyrie in
that game had a good night on the ball, but
was really missing his off ball attempts that kind of
(04:36):
hurt his shooting stats. Both of them had rough nights
in the January game. Boston had them in a really
uncomfortable position throughout. They had just fifty six points on
fifty shots in that particular game. So we're gonna talk
mostly about matchups and who can guard who when it
pertains to this side of the floor. The main reason
why is like Dallas will run some stuff like they'll
(04:59):
run some stack and roll where you backscreen for the
role man as he's going to the basket. They'll run
some double drag where the first guy will roll, the
second guy will pop, stuff like that. But for the
most part, this is a brute force for out one
in offense. What that means is, for the most part,
it's once Luca gets whatever matchup he wants, it's just
here comes the ball screen, right, and it'll look a
(05:20):
little funky because Boston's gonna do some weird stuff with
the matchups that we're going to talk about in a
little bit, But for the most part, it's just spread
the floor, get the on ball matchup you want. Here
comes the ball screen corner, three point shooter in the
left corner, corner, three point shooter in the right corner.
Guy roll into the basket and shoot her up on
the right wing. Right. That's just the kind of general
layout that Dallas is going to go with, and even
(05:41):
with even when they run action that doesn't involve the center,
which is going to be a substantial part of this
series because I think that Boston will put Tatum on
the center a lot, which we're going to talk about
in more detail here in a minute. In those situations,
it's still the same spacing. It's instead of having a
shooter up on the wing, that guy ends up being
the guy who's setting the screen. You have your two
(06:02):
shooters in the corner, and then Livelier or Gafford will
just kind of be parked in the dunker spot. And
then that when Luca gets downhill, it's the same kind
of concept as what he's doing in a drop coverage.
He's trying to manipulate the rim protector into leaving Livelier
Gaffer to step over and help so that Luca can
throw that lob pass. So even when it turns into
(06:22):
different variations of the angle that they look to attack
the defense, it still is more or less the same
configuration in terms of their spacing, which is kind of
just the way Dallas runs runs offense. Right, they're the
textbook heliocentric modern layout of offense that involves more primary
shot creation, right, Like those are the two kind of
(06:43):
schools of thought, Right, Like, get a couple of great
shot creators and a bunch of play finishers. And run
four out, or get a bunch of guys who can
do everything and run five out and keep everybody involved. Right,
those are kind of like the main two functions. So
let's talk about these specific matchups that I expect to
see in this series. So, for Luca, Brown will most
likely get the start. He got it in both games
in the regular season. He's the best combination of on
(07:06):
the ball strength to disrupt Luca's base, the length to
disrupt pull up shooting, and also the best option in
terms of keeping size on the back line. That's key
because when we talk about potential options that involve Tatum
on the ball, it just makes it so that Boston's
pretty small on the back line, and I'll show you
some examples in film where that can burn them. Right. So,
(07:27):
I think Jaylen Brown's going to get the start, But
to be clear, everyone's going to see time on Luca
because Boston concedes guard guard switch guard guard switches really easily.
So like if Kyrie has Drew Holliday on him and
he runs up at the beginning of the possession and
just sets a brush screen on Jlen Brown, They're just
going to concede the switch. And now Luca's got Drew
Holliday on him. So like, even though Jaln Brown is
(07:47):
probably the best option, I think Luca's gonna be able
to get really whoever he wants. And you'll notice when
we get to the Keys. That's something that I'd like
to see Boston fight against. But we'll see what they
end up doing when we get into the series. For Kyrie,
Drew Holliday got to start in both games. Derek White
did spend a good amount of time on him, especially
in some of the bench groups, but Drew did a
better job, which you guys will see on film. Also,
(08:08):
like Derek White is best if you have to choose
between those two guys, which is the better off ball player? Defensively,
that Derek White shot blocking piece, He's got the length,
he's got excellent instincts. He can really offer some help
at the rim and be a problem. So in addition
to Drew just kind of being a better option on
the ball because he's more physical, He's just like I
(08:29):
think Kyrie's more bothered by physicality than the length. Anyway,
I don't think Kyrie really sees contests, So like, Drew's
a better matchup for Kyrie but it also is smart
because it keeps Derek White off the ball as much
as possible. But Derek White will see time on Kyrie
as well, which you guys will see on film. Kyrie
seemed to be pretty comfortable getting to his spots against
Derek White, though Derek Jones Jr. Will see the other
(08:51):
guard in this case Derek White, right. And again that's
a perfect spot because if Derek Jones is spotting up
in the corner, you like having Derek White there to
be able to make help side rotations at the rim.
And lastly, the PJ. Washington and then Gafford Lively front
court in the regular season. Now Lively started in the
regular season game, but in the regular season Boston started
with Tatum on Derek Lively. Now, but if you guys
(09:13):
remember in the Pacers series, the Celtics did a similar
thing where they started Tatum on Miles Turner in the
regular season, but then when they started the series they
started Horford on him and then adjusted to Tatum on
Turner over the course of the series. It was like
it was like right before halftime of Game one, if
I remember correctly. So what that means is, don't be
(09:34):
surprised if we see Porzingis on Gafford to start the series,
but this will eventually end with Porzingis on PJ. Washington
and Tatum on the center. And there's a very specific
reason why Boston wants to do that when Tatum is
on the center. As we talked about so much coming
(09:55):
into the series in the mailbag, any pick and roll
just ends up with the switch, right, So like, if
Tatum is guarding, if Tatum is guarding Daniel Gafford to
start the series, and let's say Jalen Brown is on Luca,
all you're accomplishing by running that action is now Tatum,
Boston's best and most versatile defensive player is now on Luca.
That doesn't accomplish much and Daniel Gaffer's not going to
(10:17):
be able to post up Jalen Brown, right, So like
that just kind of mitigates any sort of success from
that specific action. Right. Also, like if you put Porzingis
on PJ. Washington, now when PJ. Washington comes to set
the screen, when Porzingis sits into his drop coverage, no
matter what PJ. Washington does, it is a much lower
(10:40):
value play than anything Gafford could do in a ball screen.
What I mean by that is, if you are PJ.
Washington and you're spotting up often, you're in the corner. Right. PJ.
Washington has been a very good corner three point shooter
in this postseason run. He's shooting forty one point two
percent on threes out of either corner, but he's twenty
(11:01):
nine point five percent on above the break three So
bad above the break less than a point per shot.
Great from the corners up over one point two points
per shot. Right. So, now imagine the geometry of a
ball screen. Right, So if PJ. Washington comes and sets
the screen, because Luca doesn't want to bring up Gafford
because all he's doing is getting Tatum on a switch,
(11:23):
which is not advantageous for Luca. Right, So he's probably
not going to bring Gafford into the screen as much
he's gonna bring PJ. Washington because he wants to try
to target Porzingis in a drop coverage. Right. So, if PJ.
Washington comes up and sets the ball screen and Luca
gets Jylen Brown onto his tail side, or even if
he gets a guard like Drew Holiday or Derek White,
(11:45):
same thing, they're on his backside as he's working downhill.
But let's look at it through. Let's look at it
through three different situations. What if PJ rolls. If PJ rolls,
he's not the kind of vertical spacer that Daniel Gafford
and Derek Lively are. With Daniel Gaffer and Derek Lively,
there's a huge passing window that Luca can hit and
(12:05):
he can go high way above Porzingis's arms if he
lunges over to try to block the shot, and Gafford
and Lively can dunk anything, right, Like that's what we
saw Luca doing to Rudy Gobert. All sees a series
long right, just kind of baiting him into no man's land,
getting that lob pass over the top, and it's just
such a big passing window. Even when Gilbert would like
kind of lean back and try to block it, Gafford
(12:28):
was just so high above the rim, right, PJ. Washington
is not that type of vertical spacing threat. In addition
to that, you are rolling into the lane or Jason
Tatum is gonna be waiting because he's guarding the center,
and the center is gonna be in the dunker spot
because it's a non shooter, which is going to put
Tatum in a position where he can effectively help Porzingis.
(12:49):
So now what you can do is Porzingis can be
more aggressive towards Luca in the ball screen, because as PJ.
Washington is rolling downhill, Tatum's kind of in that no
man's land. And if it like obviously Luca will have
the ability to try to throw lobs the Gafford and Lively,
but it's just a lot of congestion down there, and
Tatum can try to bait that lob pass into PJ.
(13:11):
Washington and try to break that up. Right, So the
role from PJ. Washington, just to put it simply, is
a more difficult situation for Luca to manage in terms
of his decision making than if it was a vertical
spacer like Daniel Gafford or or Derek Lively. Right now,
what if PJ. Washington pops. You can't pop to the corner.
(13:33):
That's not how it works, right Like, if these ball
screens are being run above the break, and in all likelihood,
if Luca is gonna be trying to work downhill into
the lane, PJ. Washington's gonna be popping close to the
top of the key. Most of the time, that's a
spot where he shoots twenty nine point five percent on
those particular threes. Right, So, like a couple things. First
(13:54):
of all, my guess is that the staff for Dallas
is gonna have PJ. Washington all week long practicing pick
and pops. It's gonna be a completely different type of
offensive series for him because he's just going to have
to be able to either knock down that three or
drive that close out and make stuff happen off of
the bounce. It's gonna be a lot of pressure on PJ.
(14:15):
Washington to produce offensively. And then, lastly, if PJ. Washington
is spacing, so let's say that Luca gets a matchup
that he likes. Let's say he gets Derek White on
a switch and he decides to start going to the post.
Right now, if PJ. Washington goes in spaces to the corner,
which is where he is most successful as a shooter,
that is, of all of the five to three point spots, corner, corner, wing, wing,
(14:38):
top of the key, of all those five spots, that's
the easiest rotation for porzingis to make. He can stand
one foot outside of the block and lunge into the
lane to help or close out to the corner, and
it's a shorter close out than if he had to
go all the way above the break. So, no matter what,
by putting Porzingis on PJ. Washington, it helps Boston tilt
(14:58):
Dallas's offense towards their life or value shots, which is
either you're gonna attack Tatum in a switch in a
ball screen, which is not a good idea, or you're
going to bring Porzingis into the action, which is going
to force PJ. Washington to be a role man or
to be an above the break three point shooter, which
are the two things that he's not doing as well
in this particular postseason run. So that's kind of why
(15:20):
I expect to see a lot of Porzingis on PJ.
Washington over the corner over the course of the series.
Let's talk about Luca though. In general, I think Boston's
gonna be able to guard Kyrie pretty well. They have
excellent guard defenders. He's gonna hit shots and he'll find
ways to contribute, but they should be able to limit
his efficiency to a certain extent. But they don't really
have anybody that can guard Luca except for Jason Tatum,
(15:42):
and you guys will see on film Luca has some
success against Jason Tatum as well. We saw this in
the Minnesota series. Just think about it from a really
basic standpoint, like Minnesota had Jada McDaniels and Rudy Gobaer
and another big forward in Karl Anthony Towns on the
back line to kill Alexander Walker, Anthony Edwards, Kyle Anderson.
They just had a plethora of prim defenders, a ton
of length, one of the best rim protectors in the league.
(16:02):
Say what you want about Rudy Gobert, he is a much, much,
much much better defensive player than both chrisps Porzingis and
Al Horford. It's just a totally different stratosphere. Like Gobert
is somewhere around the fifth best defender in the world,
and Porzingis and and Horford are just not in most
conversations right, So, like Luca's gonna be comfortable. Specifically, even
(16:23):
though Jalen Brown is the best option I think for
Boston in terms of keeping the geometry of the floor
good for them, He's not big enough. Drew Holliday is
not big enough, Derek White's not big enough. It's just there.
He's going to be comfortable. I think he's gonna have
success getting to his spot. So the question is, if
you're Boston, how do you make life harder on Luca?
(16:45):
First of all, I put down I put down two
specific things that we're gonna hit on. First of all,
make him work against your tougher matchups. So make him
work against Tatum and Brown. What that means is, don't
concede switches so easily. You guys are gonna see a
lot of examples in the film where it's just there's
there's no attempts to try to fight through a basic
guard guard screen at the beginning of an action and
(17:05):
Luca gets the matchup he wants like this, and then
he goes to work. There's a certain tendency with Luca too,
when he calls for those types of screens. He'll call
for him like like thirty thirty five feet from the basket,
and honestly, the only purpose the screen serves is to
get a switch. Luca's not like trying to turn the
corner quickly in those situations. So like, just fight through them,
just fight through them. And I don't even think you
(17:26):
necessarily have to hedge considering, I don't think Luca's gonna
really look to attack that often in those situations, So
just fight through those switches. Eventually you'll get later in
the clock where if Luca walks it up and there's
fifteen seconds on the shot clock by the time he
calls the first guard guard screen and you fight through
two of them, and all of a sudden there's nine
on the shot clock, he's just gonna look to go.
And so I think by doing simple stuff like that,
(17:47):
you can push them into late clock situations where you
can play them into their lower value shots. And then lastly,
just Porzingis in those defensive coverages needs to favor Luca
instead of favoring PJ. So for ends, since if PJ
does roll to the basket, there was an example to
show you guys, it's the first possession. It's actually the
first clipper looking at where Porzingis was a little too
(18:08):
keyed in on PJ Washington and he allowed Luca to
get an easy bank shot. Like when you have the PJ.
Washington matchup, you need to make PJ score there, and
you need to make Luca make tighter window passes to
a lesser vertical spacer and to above the break three
point shooter that struggles to make the shot. So that's
an example where Porzingis can be more aggressive in pick
(18:31):
and roll. But in general, again, just make him shoot
against your bigger forwards, make him try to score over
the top of Porzingis, or make those tight, tighter window passes.
I think that's how you can plow play him into
his lower efficiency keys for both teams. Again, for Dallas,
get favorable matchups. For Luca, get the ball up the
floor quickly so you don't end up in late clock
(18:51):
situations for on guard guard screens to get Drew or
Derek switched on to Luca before running the ball screen.
Take advantage of Boston being lazy when they want to
be lazy in those situations. One other thing that I
think they should experiment with is as long as they
have Tatum on Gafford lively and they're willing to switch
that action, it might be interesting to see if and
(19:11):
I don't mean this as a score, I don't want
Luca trying to score on Tatum. I think that would
wear them out. It just would be too difficult over
the course of the series. But I think if this
more is Luca functioning as a passer. What if he
goes after Tatum and switches, gets Tatum on the ball,
and then looks to run another action where he can
get guys slipping out of the action into the back line,
because the back line when Tatum's not there is substantially smaller.
(19:33):
Luke like Tatum is the only real big forward that
they have. Jalen Brown to me, is more of a
smaller forward. And then they've got their centers right, So
like if you put them in a situation where they're
smaller players on the back line, just imagine you have
Tatum on Luca and then you bring Porzingis into the
ball screen. You have their two biggest players out at
the three point line. Quick slipping out of that and
(19:55):
hitting passes will allow guys to attack that Boston back
line when they're and again, I have some clips that
I'll show you guys that will demonstrate that. And then lastly,
just they need Kyrie to produce. Like he's gonna have
tough matchups. He's gonna have some opportunities to attack and
drop coverage, but he's gonna have good defenders on him consistently.
If he can produce Obviously, that just gives more margin
(20:17):
for air to everything else that Dallas does on the
Boston front, physical ball pressure again, just fatiguing and attacking
the base. We saw that with Lou Dort have some
effect against Luca. Against Luca in the second round, avoiding
switches as much as possible. Again, I think just something
simple like Jaylen Brown fighting through one or two guard
screens at the start of a possession can get Dallas
(20:38):
into late clock situations and make things harder for them offensively.
And then lastly, tilt Dallas's offense toward lower value shots
above the rake threes for role players, Luca's shot attempts
against Tatum and Brown instead of the smaller guards. And
then one of the things you'll see in the in
the film too is like Kyrie does have some success
attacking and drop coverage, and one of the easy ways
(21:01):
to kind of fight against that is in the Kyrie
led units, when it's all bench groups out there, maybe
go smaller and lean into switching and at least forced
Kyrie to attack good defensive players in isolation. The volume
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