September 29, 2025 • 38 mins
Jason gives his full preview of the Pacific Division for the 2025/26 NBA season including Luka Doncic, LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers, Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and the Golden State Warriors, Kawhi Leoanrd and the Los Angeles Clippers, Devin Booker and the Phoenix suns, and the Sacramento Kings.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. All right, oldwin hoops and I here at
the valume. Happy Monday, everybody. Oh, both of you guys
had a great weekend. We are finally turning our attention
(00:22):
towards the twenty twenty five twenty twenty six NBA season.
We had a lot of fun this summer. We looked
into the past, we ranked players, we argued, we debated,
we had a lot of fun. But I'm very excited
that we were finally turning our attention to this next season.
There's just so much interesting basketball to get into. I
have so much that I'm excited to see with all
(00:44):
of these teams. We're gonna be changing our format this year.
In years past, we've done our season previews as a
power rankings, like ranking the teams, and we typically only
covered the top fifteen teams in the league. This year,
we're gonna do it very differently. We're going to cover
it by division, and we're actually going to hit on
all thirty teams. Now, We're not going to hit on
(01:05):
some of the teams towards the bottom of the league
in as much detail for timesake, but we are going
to touch on all thirty teams over the course of
six videos covering all six divisions in the NBA, and
then in the final week after we get through these
two weeks of season previews, in that last week before
the start of the season, then we'll go into some
of the bigger details like ranking championship contenders, talking about awards.
(01:29):
We'll do a mail bag that week, that sort of thing.
But you guys can count on Monday, Wednesday Friday this
week and Monday, Wednesday Friday next week the full division
season previews. Today we're doing the Pacific Division out West,
then on Wednesday we'll be covering the Atlantic Division out East,
and after that back to the Northwest Division. Those are
(01:50):
our three divisions this week. You guys have the joke
before we get started, subscribe to Hoops and Not YouTube
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(02:13):
if you want to keep getting mailbag questions into our mailbags,
we'll have a mailbag, like I said, the week after next,
and then obviously it'll be a part of our regular
coverage throughout the season. Just make sure you drop those
questions in the full episodes in the YouTube comments, put
mailbag and a colon and so I can find it
in the mix, and we'll get to those in our
next mail bag here in a couple of weeks. All right,
let's talk some basketball. So the first team out in
(02:33):
the Pacific Division that we're covering today the Los Angeles Lakers,
the team in the NBA that I currently root for.
A quick little offseason recap. They lost Dorian Finney Smith
Jordan Goodwin, who I really liked and Phoenix fans will
remember and they will be enjoying watching this year as
well as Shake Milton. They added DeAndre Ayton, Jake Larevia,
(02:55):
who I like, you can shoot the ball and do
some stuff off the bounce, a decent athlete. I think
you can play well off of Luca. And then Marcus Smart,
a player who has dealt with significant injury concerns over
the last couple of years. Easily the biggest piece of
news from this summer for Lakers fans is the transformation
of Luka Doncic. And like, I can't put this any
(03:15):
more clearly because I know I got into a lot
of arguments with people surrounding player rankings, but the player
from last year is not the player that Luka Doncic
was in his entire career leading up to that, and
it is not the player I expect to see this season.
To put it very simply, Luka declined in several key
(03:35):
areas last year as a byproduct of his poor conditioning.
He had another brutal defensive showing against Minnesota. He appeared
to suffer several drop offs on offense. Just to give
you guys some ideas, he shot thirty eight percent on
pull up two's last year with the Lakers. He was
forty seven percent the year prior in Dallas. He shot
(03:59):
thirty six percent on floaters with the Lakers, fifty four
percent the previous year with Dallas. He shot sixty five
percent at the rim with the Lakers, which is good,
but Luca the year prior in Dallas shot seventy one
percent at the rim. So, in other words, Luca was
(04:19):
a shell of himself last year. Easily, the biggest piece
of information and optimism for Lakers fans should be Luca's back.
He looks fantastic at EuroBasket, he looked thinner but still strong.
He looked quicker and more explosive, and his percentages in
those key areas that I just listed they skyrocketed back
(04:40):
to where they were, even above where they were his
last year in Dallas, albeit in a seven game sample size,
but an encouraging sign nonetheless. So for instance, in EuroBasket No.
Seven games, fifty four percent on pull up twos, matching
his previous year in Dallas, fifteen for twenty eight from
the field, sixty seven percent on flow os, albeit small
(05:00):
sample four for six, and seventy three percent at the rim,
so more like what we would expect to see from Luca.
I think that's an encouraging sign. The Lakers getting not
just a better version of Luca, but perhaps the best
version of Luca we've seen to this point, would essentially
amount to a massive influx of talent for this team.
The Luca that was leading the Lakers last year was
(05:23):
not a top tier superstar. He was a second tier superstar.
The Luca that we can expect this year, if he
stays healthy, is a top tier superstar, in my opinion,
the second best player in the league. I've also long
viewed Luca as a smart defender. He has his physical limitations,
but he's usually in the right spot, and in that
last year in Dallas, in that playoff run, he was
(05:45):
very good off the ball. It was the on ball
stuff against Boston that was a problem. And then obviously
overweight Luca was a disaster against Minnesota. So if Luca
in peak shape can be a more zillient on ball defender,
that would also go go a long way towards helping
(06:05):
him avoid those pitfalls. I talked about this concept when
we were talking about Luca's conditioning a few weeks back.
But it's about the idea of flattening out drives. So,
for instance, we know Luca's gonna be fine off the ball.
He's a great defensive rebounder. He can cover ground and
be in the right spot in helpside rotations right, But
in terms of containing the basketball, it's just about flattening
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out drives. If you give up clean, straight line dribble penetration,
it is very difficult to cover for with your back
four defenders. But if you can flatten the drive, meaning
instead of going straight at the rim having to go
around you because you're beating him to a spot and
forcing him to take a weird angle to get around you.
(06:46):
If you do that, you can plan for it and
you have a chance to succeed defensively. So that's going
to be a big part of it for him with
his improved conditioning. Doesn't need to be Davion Mitchell. There
are lots of limited offensive players that have found roles
on championship teams or limited defensive players, I should say,
But in order for him to do that, he's got
(07:07):
to be able to flatten now drives when he defense
and switches, especially since jj Reddick in all likelihood is
going to lean on a lot more switching like he
usually does. I'm very excited to watch this rejuvenated version
of Luca. I think he's the only player in the
league that has the potential to close the gap when
nikol Jokic in the short term. There's obviously some guys
in the long term who could potentially do it, But
(07:27):
in the short term like this season. I think he's
the one guy who has the potential to really get
close to where Nikol Jokich is because he's the only
other player in the league who can be an APEX
scorer and an APEX playmaker. He's the only other guy
other than Jokic, and that's why I had him at
number two in my player rankings for the second year
in a row. The second exciting piece of news for
(07:49):
Lakers fans is the DeAndre Ayton signing. I've never been
a big DeAndre Ayton fan, and that even goes back
to his days with the arizon A Wildcats. Remember I'm
from Tucson. His inconsistent motor and his personsonality just drive
me crazy. But in theory, this is the ideal circumstance
for him to have a career year. For starters, he's
the perfect pick and roll partner for Luka Doncic. He's
(08:12):
a very good vertical spacer with good hands who can
finish very well on the role in a variety of ways.
He shot fifty eight percent from the field on rolls
last year. He only took four pick and pop threes,
but he made three of them. It was like the
only place he shot well from three. He shot seventy
four percent at the rim overall, and he had seventy
one dunks. He can finish lobs, he can shoot layups
(08:33):
better than most bigs, and he's a very good short
role scorer because he has a deadly mid range jump shot.
He took seventy four mid range jump shots last year
in made fifty five point four percent of him. That's
one point one to one points per shot, which is
very efficient. He's also a good short range score. He
was fifty four percent on floaters in hooks last year
(08:53):
ninety five attempts. So I think he's a very high
level role man that's going to unlock a lot of
things in a pick and roll partnership with Luca. Now,
the two things to keep an eye on with eight
and on offense when he's on the floor are one
his playmaking and two his screening. So with his playmaking
for his career, he has more turnovers than assists. So
when he catches on the short roll, let's say Luca
(09:15):
ball screen with aighton big shows up high or blitzes,
Luca drops it over the top eight and catches around
the foul line and he turns and faces and the
defense rotates to him. Will he be able to make
the passing or reads out of that. That's going to
be a big swing factor for the Lakers. And then
the second piece of screening. He doesn't make as much
contact on his screens as he probably should. But I'm
(09:37):
more worried about this with Lebron and Austin guys who
kind of struggle to beat guys off the dribble, because
Luca has an insane gift for getting past his man
even without screen. So I think eight and if he
can stay healthy, him and Luca will be one of
the most deadly pick and roll partnerships in the league,
if not the most deadly. I am not very optimistic
about DeAndre Ayton's defense. The wretches in his career where
(10:01):
he's been solid and pick and roll, and he had
some admirable possessions in the twenty twenty one finals against Giannis,
although ultimately he lost that battle. But he's been a
lot more bad than good in his career on that
end of the floor, and last year he was really bad.
When I was watching all the film earlier this summer
when they signed him Portland mainly had him sit way
back in like a comically deep drop coverage way back
(10:22):
in the paint. JJ is almost certainly going to ask
him to be a lot more active and a lot
more mobile in his ball screen coverages, and probably to
do more switching. Right. On the one hand, it won't
be hard for him to be better than Jackson Hayes was,
so he's certainly an upgrade, but I'm not expecting Deandretan
to anchor an elite defense or anything along those lines.
He will definitely help with rebounding, though, and I actually
(10:44):
think the combination of Luka Doncic with Lebron and Deandreten
makes for a formidable defensive rebounding group. My biggest worry
with Ayton is just his health and his overall focus.
He's failed to play in sixty games and three the
last four years. He played in just ninety five games
total in the last two seasons combined, and he's gonna
be on a team with several APEX competitors. Guys are
(11:05):
going to be chirping at him and being on his
ass every day about his focus. I'm just curious to
see how he handles that mentally. But the reason why
I think it's set up well for eight and to
have a career year is the fact that he's in
a contract year and an especially pivotal one. We know
that DeAndre Ayton is very money motivated. He's basically straight
(11:26):
up come out and told us that at several points
in his career. This season is the biggest turning point
of his career financially. If he struggles or if he
can't stay healthy, he'll probably be stuck on exceptions for
the rest of his career mid level exceptions, bi annual exceptions,
veteran minimum exceptions. If he goes out and kicks ass,
(11:48):
he could sign a four year, one hundred million dollar
deal this summer, potentially even higher depending on how much
ass he kicks right, So I think in the range
of possible outcomes, as long as his body holds up,
the Lakers should get the best possible version of Ayton
because Ayton wants money and he needs to be good
this year to get his money. With Marcus Smart, I
(12:10):
literally have no idea what to expect. He played in
a grand total of fifty four games in the last
two seasons combined, so I think going into the season
just expecting him to play seventy games would be foolish.
If he's healthy, He's exactly what the Lakers need. He's
an excellent point of attack defender that allows the Lakers
to run traditional pick and roll coverages. And he's a
virstatle offensive player that can thrive off of the advantages
(12:32):
that Luca can create. But at this point, I have
a really hard time generating any optimism surrounding Smart until
he actually shows he can stay on the court. That's
really all I'm going to say about him for right now.
Looking at the big picture, I think this Lakers team
is going to be a top three offense if they
can stay healthy. Luca is the second best offensive player
in the league, and I think he's gonna have the
(12:52):
best season of his career this year. They have tons
of play finishing and ball handling. I think a key
challenge for JJ Reddick will be getting the Laker to
play with pace. Lebron and Luca both have a tendency
to slow the game down and play deep into the
shot clock. I think that would be a waste of
this team strengths. This is not a team that has
a bunch of play finishers. They do have play finishers,
(13:13):
but they have guys who can put the ball on
the floor and make plays with the ball. So if
you're throwing your first kickout pass with like seven seconds
on the shot clock, you don't have much time to
capitalize in all your aggregate offensive talent. You want Luca
or Lebron to be making that first pass with like
twelve or thirteen seconds on the shot clock, so that
you have time for multiple attacks. Everyone can stay involved
(13:35):
and you can break the defense down incrementally with what
your strength is, which is your aggregate offensive skill. This
was a concept I actually talked about a lot, if
you guys remember correctly, after the twenty twenty four finals
when the MAVs lost, they made several moves that summer
that geared more towards ball handling, including making a simple
shift like going from Derek Jones Junior, who's more of
(13:56):
a D and three kind of guy, to a Naji
Marshall who is a guy who can with the ball
on the floor more and do some more things on
the bounce right. And I talked after that that it
made more sense for them to stop playing so slow
and deliberate and to play faster because they had more
ball handling off of Luca. I think this group would
very similarly benefit from that kind of style if they
(14:16):
do and a couple of specific things happen, like eight
and stays healthy, Lebron stays healthy, Austin Reeves improves as
a catch and shoot player, which I think he will.
I think this Lakers team can crack a one twenty
offensive rating. That's something that I have my eye on.
As for the defense, I don't see how they could
break the top ten without a trade. Their best point
(14:37):
of attack defenders at this point are Marcus Smart, who
can't stay healthy, and Jared Vanderbilt, who struggles to stay
on the floor because he can't do anything on offense.
They have a mediocre to bad defensive anchor at center,
they have a forty year old who's their low man
who likes to take regular season nights off on defense,
and Austin and Luca are both inferior athletes. So to me,
(14:58):
it seems more likely than that they're a bottom ten
defense this year, somewhere in that like twenty one to
twenty three range, But their pathway to title contention lies
in getting from that. What I expect to be in
the low twenties on defense to that like twelve to
fifteen range. So how do they do that? How does
(15:18):
Thiskers team become a mediocre to slightly above average defense?
Starts with scheme versatility. So if you get quality seasons
out of Marcus Smart and Jared Vanderbilt. So if like
Marcus Smart is just healthy, and if Jared Vanderbilt gets
better at corner threes or better at little floaters in
the lane or whatever it is, he needs to be
more useful on offense that allows you to run traditional
(15:39):
coverages as well as the switching scheme that JJ likes
to lean on. If they then mix in some zone,
which as we saw with Denver zone can cause problems
for OKC and probably should be in your bag if
you're playing in the Western Conference. If they get that
kind of scheme versatility that could help, and then just
overall a commitment to the details down the roster. They
(16:00):
have a ceiling if they hit all those notes of
somewhere in that twelfth to fifteenth best defense. If they
get into that range, that's where I would start to
take them seriously as a contender. But I'm pretty pessimistic
about that right now. I view the Lakers as a
solid second tier contender. They have a larger range of
(16:20):
outcomes in both directions than most of these teams. Right, Like,
they have bad injury luck, Like if Lebron at forty
forty one gets hurt, Faydon gets hurt, Marcus Mart gets hurt,
Luca sometimes can miss fifteen twenty games. If that sort
of thing happens, they could quickly drop into the play in,
which is obviously unbecoming of a team that we look
at as a second tier contender. But if Lebron is
(16:41):
healthy and stays at that second team all NBA level
and Marcus Smart returns to like ninety percent of the
player he was before injury, and if Luca plays like
an MVP and you get seventy games out of DeAndre Ayton,
I think they could get the three seed again. So
they have like a pretty wide range of outcomes. My
hope is a Lakers fan, is that they make some
sort of aggressive deal. I really really like the idea
(17:03):
of Andrew Wiggins in a Lakers jersey. I think Wiggins
could solve their two biggest issues. A starting caliber III
that can guard the opponent's best player and just an
overall increase in athleticism for a team that lacks athleticism.
If they got Wiggins and they hit all those other
notes I just listed, I think they can actually be
as good as Denver or Oklahoma City. It's just both
(17:25):
of those outcomes I view as seriously unlikely. So I
think they're a textbook second tier contender. There's a pathway,
but it's an unlikely one at this point. Next team,
the Los Angeles Clippers. Today's show is brought to you
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or Virginia ROF season recap. They lost Mere Coffee, Drew Eubanks,
(19:14):
Norman Powell, and Ben Simmons, and they added Bradley Beal,
John Collins, Brook Lopez, and Chris Paul. A lot of
really nice talent upgrades there, Like Norman Powell is better
than Bradley Beal at a few key things, but brad
will be able to scale up his ball handling when
Kawhi is out of the lineup for rest or for injury.
That gives him some unique value within this particular Clippers team.
(19:36):
John Collins is generally an underrated player because when he
went to Utah he learned how to shoot, so now
he's like a real weapon on offense who can pick
and pop and pick and roll. I think he's gonna
be an excellent fit with James Harden and Chris Paul.
Brook Lopez is a much better backup center than Drew Eubanks,
and he gives you a specific size upgrade for the
Jokic matchup. And CP three is a backup like if
(19:57):
he's not starting for you. If CP three is a backup,
that's as good an option as you'll find in the league.
So a lot of really nice talent upgrades there for
the Clippers. In other words, the Clippers have their issues
in their top end talent, which we'll discuss in a minute,
but they have unquestionably improved their roster and balanced it
in some key ways that give them more upset potential
against teams like Denver and Oklahoma City. The first and
(20:20):
most exciting part of this is the depth of offensive talent.
Because of the addition of Chris Paul, you can legitimately
count on forty eight minutes of top end pick and
roll shot creation. Chris had his issues when he was
heavily featured, like in his starting role at this point
in his career, but he is still one of the
very best pick and roll players in the league. Last
(20:41):
year with the Spurs, and again that's a limited offensive team,
he generated one point zero eight points per pick and
roll including passes on eight hundred and ninety two reps.
Out of the twenty seven players who locked at least
seven hundred and fifty in the NBA. That ranked eighth.
That's really high on that list. And then obviously James
Harden is your foundation in that area as a pick
and roll shot creator, but you also have a plethora
(21:03):
of pick and roll screening options now, like it's not
just zobots anymore. You have John Collins and Brook Lopez
to add to the mix. John Collins tends to roll
more than pop out of ball screens, at least that's
what he did in Utah. But a big part of
that too, stems with the way that rosters put together.
I think he'll do most of his work as a
vertical spacer on this team, like cutting along the baseline
(21:24):
and rolling out of screens. But he also shot forty
percent on pick and pop threes last year, and he
was forty three percent overall on unguarded catch and shoot threes,
so I think he provides an interesting screening option. And
then Brook Lopez on massive volume. He shot one hundred
and fourteen pick and pop threes last year, made thirty
eight percent of them, and when he rolled into twos
he shot sixty one percent. He was still like one
(21:45):
point one nine to five points per rollman possession, which
was one of the better marks in the league. Like
Brook is still a very very useful pick and roll
partner for one of those handlers, and so all game long,
when you play the Clippers, you're gonna be dealing with
devastating two man game duos. And by the way, I
haven't even mentioned Kawhi Leonard, who's the best player on
(22:07):
the team, or Bradley Beal, who obviously brings dynamic ball
handling to the table. So for a team that was
the third best defense in the NBA last year that
was built on the foundation of Zubat's rim protection and
a depth of perimeter defenders, but that had some offensive limitations,
these offensive upgrades are really exciting if you're a Clippers fan.
(22:28):
I think this team has an enormous margin for error
as currently constructed, and so because of that, if I
had to pick one team that I think is most
likely to get the three seed in this case, with
Houston losing Fred van Vliet, I actually think Houston kind
of slips into that second tier of contenders. We'll talk
about that more when we talk about Houston, But with
(22:49):
Houston kind of dropping off with that injury, if I
had to pick one team to finish with the third
seed behind Oklahoma City and Denver, I think I'd picked
the Clippers. They have one of the best coaches in
the league, a deep, versatile roster built by one of
the smartest front offices in the league, and they're built
to withstand injuries because they have depth at all the
key position groups, lots of shot creation talent, lots of
(23:13):
defensive talent. I think it's highly likely that the Clippers
finish top ten in both offense and defense this year. So, Jason,
all these things you're saying seem like things you would
say about a top tier contender, but you don't have
them as a top tier contender. Why is that? And
it really just comes down to Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. James,
(23:34):
as we've discussed so many times over the years, is
a player I have enormous respect for, especially in the
regular season context. Like I think he's still one of
the better floor raising offensive engines in the entire NBA.
He's durable, He basically guarantees you a competitive offense in
the regular season. I think he's worth every penny on
his contract. But he routinely falls apart and becomes borderline
(23:57):
ineffective when he gets to high leverage playoffs. And this
was a problem when he was a younger and more
explosive version of himself. Now, the insurance against that used
to be that if you got Kawhi Leonard to the postseason.
He was Robot Kawhi, who was a top five player
in the league, who could go toe to toe with
any star in the NBA and really take over in
(24:19):
those spots and give you the margin for air to
withstan James Harden shortcomings. But we had that series against
Denver last year and it was the first time that
healthy Kawhi didn't look like a top tier guy. And
that's what's concerning, especially since Denver defensively is not exactly
what you would call it a juggernaut, although they were
(24:39):
a better playoff defense than you would have expected last year,
they finally got into the playoffs ready to go in healthy,
and he just looked like a second tier guy. He
had that one insane game in Game two where he
made every shot and walked the Nuggets down down the stretch,
but outside of that game, his volume was low, his
efficiency was low by superstar standards, I mean, and he
(25:02):
struggled with double teams, like really struggled with double teams.
That's a huge concern because again, in all your previous
playoff runs, if Kawi was out there and if he
was healthy, you just felt like he was one of
the apex stars in the NBA who could outplay anybody.
And that just doesn't seem to be the case anymore.
And so if those days are gone and James Harden
(25:24):
is your number two, that's more or less a death
sentence against either of the top teams like Denver or
Oklahoma City, and it could easily get you beat against
any of the second tier teams. And like, yeah, well
you came very close to beating Denver last year. Well,
you got your ass kicked in Game seven. Okay, a
couple of the shots went against you early in the series.
You have the Aaron Gordon game winner. Game one is
(25:46):
a close game, right, But if you really dig into it,
Denver's improvements, the Clippers made some nice improvements. Denver's improvements
were more substantial. They added depth like you did, but
they also substantially upgraded a starting role. It's the best
version of it team that Nikola Jokic has had. They'll
be the best player with the better team in that
series Oklahoma City. There are gonna be key improvements from
(26:07):
guys like Jalen Williams and guys like Chet Holmer, and
they're gonna be better. Right. So, like the way I
look at it, with Kawhi Leonard and James Harden being
at this phase in their careers, it just feels improbable
to me that they could beat the top teams and
even some problems that could present themselves against the second
tier teams. So, like again, the Clippers, to me, I'm
(26:27):
a big fan of their basketball organization. Like again, I'm
not talking about their ownership group, who may or may
not be staring down the barrel of some significant punishment
for cheating, but their basketball ops. I'm just a huge fan.
I think they represent excellence in modern basketball. I love
everything about their philosophy and their approach to team building,
(26:50):
but ultimately, their top end talent just isn't good enough
to push them past the top tier or into the
top tier of championship contenders next to Golden State Warriors.
Important to disclose here, at the time of this recording,
the Warriors have not yet resolved the Jonathan Kaminga saga.
They only have nine players on the roster at this point.
We will obviously have an instant reaction video when that
(27:12):
whatever happens there finally goes down and it's possible they
still pull off a trade. We'll see, but for the
purposes of this video, we're gonna proceed as though Jonathan
Kaminga re signs with the Warriors. It feels like the
most likely outcome at this point, And as part of this,
we're going to proceed as though the reported the reported
(27:33):
signings take place, so we're gonna cover them in this segment.
As though Kaminga's a warrior, Horford's a Warrior, d Anthony
Melton's a warrior, Gary Payton's warrior, Seth Curry's a warrior.
That's what we're gonna be proceeding with. In this case,
it is still possible that there's a trade, right. I
went over last week that I think they should have
taken the Malik Monk package. It would have cost the
Warriors Jonathan Kaminga and Buddy Healed, but it would have
(27:55):
brought back a really nice offensive guard in Milik Monk,
who I think is much better than Buddy Healed and
he's like a rough approximation of what Jordan Poole was
for this team in the title run. And you'd also
get a future protected first round pick that could help
you make another trade down the line to bolster the team.
And if you're concerned about losing Buddy Healed. Not only
is Malik Wonk better than him, but if you're getting
Seth Curry at a minimum contract, that basically replaces that
(28:18):
bench shooting role anyway. But either way, it looks like
that's unlikely to happen at this point. So the only
guy they like officially lost is Kevon Looney, who signed
with New Orleans. Theoretically, they could fill out the back
end of the roster with the same guys that they
had last year, guys like Gary Payne or like Pat Spencer.
But again, in reality, technically at this point they only
have nine players under contracts, so some of this is
(28:40):
in flux. But as they assuming they retain Kaminga and
they get the other guys I mentioned, the roster would
more or less look like Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green,
Jonathan Kaminga, Moses Moody, Buddy Heald, Brandon Pajemski, Tray Jackson,
Davis Gie Santos, Quinton post Al Horford, the Anthony Meltain,
Seth Currur and Gary Payton. That's a really good team.
(29:04):
You have Steph Curry, who I still view as the
third best offensive player in the entire NBA, even at
age thirty seven. Last year, when Steph was on the floor,
if you remove garbage time, which is what cleaning the
glass does, the Warriors logged a one twenty offensive rating
when Steph was on the floor. That was one of
the single most impressive statistics I saw all of last season.
(29:27):
That roster was utterly devoid of offensive talent, and Steph
dragged them to a one twenty offensive rating. I'm just
a massive believer in Steph as an offensive engine. It's
why I had him all the way up at six
in my player rankings. It just his ability to consistently
generate openings that even limited NBA players can capitalize on
(29:49):
for points, and to drag these limited lineups to the
scoring efficiency that he did. I just found it remarkable.
Jimmy Butler doesn't completely solve their roster's limitations, but he
does help in several key ways. It was a wonderful
fit on the floor with Steph as a second side
creator and as a connective playmaker. When Steph, Jimmy and
Draymon were on the floor together last year, in nine
(30:12):
hundred and fifty possessions, they logged a one to twenty
two offensive rating, which is obviously an insane number, but
he also helped with controlling the pace with his ability
to get to the foul line, and he also gave
him a higher offensive ceiling when he was anchoring those
units when Steph was off the floor. I still view
Draymond as one of the best defensive anchors in the NBA.
The Warriors were the top defense in the league post
(30:33):
All Star Break last year. You're not doing that without Draymond.
I think Horford is a dream fit with this team.
I love the idea of him alongside Draymond and Jimmy
in the front court as like a high IQ switching
defensive scheme where the three of those dudes are just
talking to each other and blowing plays up, getting in
front of the action. I think those three could be
insanely good together on that end. And then Horford provides
(30:56):
a real offensive threat at the five. He's a picking
pot big. He can hit a above the break threes,
which is key for the center position, and he also
can drive closeouts and like make drive in kick plays.
He has a ton of driving kick experience or read
and react experience. With Boston and he can beat switches,
like if he gets a small on him, you can
throw it to him in the post and he can
hit a little left shoulder hook and just quickly turn
that into points. The Warriors also have center depth with
(31:17):
Quinton Post and Tray Jackson Davis, so they can manage
Horford's minutes throughout the year depending on how his body's feeling.
I just love the fit and I can't wait to
watch him in Golden stated. Anthony Melton is obviously a
big health question mark, but he looked like a perfect
fit in the system last year before getting hurt, so
much so that it felt like it was a given
that he would return to Golden State when he got healthy.
(31:38):
It looks like he probably will. Seth Curry and Buddy
Heal provide real shooting off the bench. Brandon Pajemski and
Moses Moody provide that youthful exuberance and athleticism on the perimeter,
like I think we could see both of them starting
at various points during the season, depending on how often
Steve curtisides to start al Horford. I think Moses Moody
will improve as a shooter after he had a rough
(31:58):
end of the season on that end, he just knows.
That's his biggest point of emphasis. Brandon Pajemski had several
huge breakout games towards the end of last year. He
averaged sixteen and six over the final twenty three games
of the regular season and shot forty three percent from
three on six attempts per game over that stretch. He
fell off in the postseason, but it does feel like
Pods is like close to really settling in as a pro.
(32:23):
And he's like the quintessential Steve Kerr player because he
defends and he rebounds, and he makes good read and
react decisions in their offense. And like all of this
doesn't even count Jonathan kaminga who I don't care how
you feel about how he fits. He's just an option.
He gives you optionality there. I prefer him on another
team with an asset return for Golden State, But even
in this context of this version of the team, he'll
(32:45):
be able to help in some way, at least in
some capacity, even if it's just depth during the regular season.
And then Steve Kerr always seems to get a lot
out of the back end of the roster because this
team has such a strong basketball culture. They always look
for the right kind of guys. Steve, he teaches him
to play basketball the right way. Again, they clearly don't
have the firepower of like Oklahoma City or Benver, but
(33:07):
I view them as a solid second tier contender. The
potential upside lies in a potential trade down the line
and with Steph Curry. If Steph can get back to
that guy who can average twenty seven points per game
for an entire playoff run, that's the type of guy
with this group that I think could have some real
(33:27):
championship potential. Steph had really big nights in the postseason
last year, but he also had knights where he struggled
to score. I think him getting back up to that
high volume like he showed towards the tail end of
the season is a key swing factor for the Warriors
as well. Okay, we're gonna go much quicker on these
last two teams. First, the Sacramento Kings. They lost Markel Foltz,
(33:50):
Jake Larevia, Trey Lyles, Jonas Vuncinis, and they added Drew
you Banks, Stario Sarich, Dennis Schroeder, and their first round
pic Nick Clifford, who projects to eventually be a two
way wing in the league. I do love Dennis Schroeder.
I know he has a reputation of being like an
international killer, and yes, he was awesome in EuroBasket, But
I just think he's a really good NBA player. I
think he's about as good an option for like a
(34:12):
backup guard or like sixth starters you can find in
the league. He's a competitive mffort, he always plays hard
on both ends of the floor, and he has real
skills as a primary shot creator. Do I think the
Kings should have given him forty five million or whatever
they gave him, Probably not, but I am a big
fan of him as a basketball player. The Kings are
essentially a reboot of the Chicago Bulls from two years ago,
(34:34):
but with a better center, meaning they're a team that
has an already defined ceiling and that showed again last
year to give you an idea there. Last year in
Chicago in twenty twenty four, we talked about this a
lot on the show. They had a full season of
really good health. If I remember correctly, DeRozan, Leavine, and
Vouch all averaged like seventy five games played that year,
(34:56):
so they were all basically together for the majority of
the season. They had this massive sample size, and they
had a negative net rating in the inferior Eastern Conference.
So are you surprised that last year to end the
year with Sacramento that DeMar DeRozan, Zach Lavine, and Demonas
Sabonis in eleven hundred and twenty one possessions logged a
(35:18):
negative three point five net rating according to Clean and
the Glass. No, I'm not surprised by that. So, in
other words, this team is destined to battle for the
ninth or tenth seed all season long. If you're a
Kings fan, you're just clinging to the potential upside of
guys like Devin Carter and Keegan Murray, and you should
probably just starting to look to move guys like Kean
(35:38):
Ellis and Malik Monk for picks, because it's time to
start looking towards the future. Lastly, for today, the Phoenix
Suns quick offseason recap. They lost Brad Beale, Bowl Bull,
Kevin Durant, Tyas Jones, and Mason Plumley. They added Dylan
Brooks Jordan Goodwin, who I really like and that Suns
fans will remember. I enjoyed rooting for him. With the
Lakers last year. Jalen Green from Houston and the Kevin
(36:00):
rant trade. Come on, Malowatch in the lottery, a rim
protected a rim protecting, rim running center. And Mark Williams,
the famous Hornets center that almost became a Laker. Mark
is a super high level role man and I think
he'll kill alongside Devin Booker in two man game on offense.
But he's got major health question marks and he's like
an abysmal defender, so something to keep in mind. I
(36:21):
don't think the Suns are going anywhere by any means
this year, but I do expect him to be a
feisty team and I would not be shocked if they
won thirty five games or so. And I think they're
gonna be one of my favorite league pass teams this year.
The reason why stems from my core basketball beliefs. Ryan
Dunn and Dylan Brooks are going to make life hell
for opposing stars on any given night, especially if they
(36:45):
lean into common malowatch as a rim protector. That combination
of like aggressive physical defense with rim protection on the
backside that just gives you a really high defensive floor.
And then on the other end of the floor, I
wouldn't exactly call Devin Booker like an elite top end
off of engine, but I do think he's an underrated passer,
a very good pick and role player, and a guy
that gives you a pretty high offensive four. And say
(37:09):
what you want about Jalen Green, that dude plays in
every single game and he can have some explosive scoring nights.
He had thirty two games last year with at least
twenty five points. They're going to have games where Jalen
Green has it going and Devin Booker is being Devin Booker,
and Brooks and Dunn are guarding dudes like crazy, which
(37:29):
I love that nickname, by the way, and the Suns
are gonna win those games even against really good teams.
So again, their absolute ceiling is probably the tenth seed,
and it's more likely than not that they'll miss the
playoffs entirely. But I do think the Suns fans will
enjoy watching and rooting for this team. I think they'll
have some really impressive wins this year. I think they'll
(37:50):
play a fun brand of basketball, and again, I think
they'll be one of my favorite league pass teams this year.
All right, guys, this's all I have for today is
always sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting me and supporting
the show. We'll be back on Whennesday to cover the
Atlantic Division out in the Eastern Conference. Lots of interesting
stuff to get into there. I'll see you guys there
The volume. All right, oldwin hoops and I here at
the valume. Happy Monday, everybody. Oh, both of you guys
had a great weekend. We are finally turning our attention
(00:22):
towards the twenty twenty five twenty twenty six NBA season.
We had a lot of fun this summer. We looked
into the past, we ranked players, we argued, we debated,
we had a lot of fun. But I'm very excited
that we were finally turning our attention to this next season.
There's just so much interesting basketball to get into. I
have so much that I'm excited to see with all
(00:44):
of these teams. We're gonna be changing our format this year.
In years past, we've done our season previews as a
power rankings, like ranking the teams, and we typically only
covered the top fifteen teams in the league. This year,
we're gonna do it very differently. We're going to cover
it by division, and we're actually going to hit on
all thirty teams. Now, We're not going to hit on
(01:05):
some of the teams towards the bottom of the league
in as much detail for timesake, but we are going
to touch on all thirty teams over the course of
six videos covering all six divisions in the NBA, and
then in the final week after we get through these
two weeks of season previews, in that last week before
the start of the season, then we'll go into some
of the bigger details like ranking championship contenders, talking about awards.
(01:29):
We'll do a mail bag that week, that sort of thing.
But you guys can count on Monday, Wednesday Friday this
week and Monday, Wednesday Friday next week the full division
season previews. Today we're doing the Pacific Division out West,
then on Wednesday we'll be covering the Atlantic Division out East,
and after that back to the Northwest Division. Those are
(01:50):
our three divisions this week. You guys have the joke
before we get started, subscribe to Hoops and Not YouTube
channel so you don't miss any more of our videos.
Follow me on Twitter at Underscore JCNLT so you guys
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guys follow us over there. And then, last but not least,
(02:13):
if you want to keep getting mailbag questions into our mailbags,
we'll have a mailbag, like I said, the week after next,
and then obviously it'll be a part of our regular
coverage throughout the season. Just make sure you drop those
questions in the full episodes in the YouTube comments, put
mailbag and a colon and so I can find it
in the mix, and we'll get to those in our
next mail bag here in a couple of weeks. All right,
let's talk some basketball. So the first team out in
(02:33):
the Pacific Division that we're covering today the Los Angeles Lakers,
the team in the NBA that I currently root for.
A quick little offseason recap. They lost Dorian Finney Smith
Jordan Goodwin, who I really liked and Phoenix fans will
remember and they will be enjoying watching this year as
well as Shake Milton. They added DeAndre Ayton, Jake Larevia,
(02:55):
who I like, you can shoot the ball and do
some stuff off the bounce, a decent athlete. I think
you can play well off of Luca. And then Marcus Smart,
a player who has dealt with significant injury concerns over
the last couple of years. Easily the biggest piece of
news from this summer for Lakers fans is the transformation
of Luka Doncic. And like, I can't put this any
(03:15):
more clearly because I know I got into a lot
of arguments with people surrounding player rankings, but the player
from last year is not the player that Luka Doncic
was in his entire career leading up to that, and
it is not the player I expect to see this season.
To put it very simply, Luka declined in several key
(03:35):
areas last year as a byproduct of his poor conditioning.
He had another brutal defensive showing against Minnesota. He appeared
to suffer several drop offs on offense. Just to give
you guys some ideas, he shot thirty eight percent on
pull up two's last year with the Lakers. He was
forty seven percent the year prior in Dallas. He shot
(03:59):
thirty six percent on floaters with the Lakers, fifty four
percent the previous year with Dallas. He shot sixty five
percent at the rim with the Lakers, which is good,
but Luca the year prior in Dallas shot seventy one
percent at the rim. So, in other words, Luca was
(04:19):
a shell of himself last year. Easily, the biggest piece
of information and optimism for Lakers fans should be Luca's back.
He looks fantastic at EuroBasket, he looked thinner but still strong.
He looked quicker and more explosive, and his percentages in
those key areas that I just listed they skyrocketed back
(04:40):
to where they were, even above where they were his
last year in Dallas, albeit in a seven game sample size,
but an encouraging sign nonetheless. So for instance, in EuroBasket No.
Seven games, fifty four percent on pull up twos, matching
his previous year in Dallas, fifteen for twenty eight from
the field, sixty seven percent on flow os, albeit small
(05:00):
sample four for six, and seventy three percent at the rim,
so more like what we would expect to see from Luca.
I think that's an encouraging sign. The Lakers getting not
just a better version of Luca, but perhaps the best
version of Luca we've seen to this point, would essentially
amount to a massive influx of talent for this team.
The Luca that was leading the Lakers last year was
(05:23):
not a top tier superstar. He was a second tier superstar.
The Luca that we can expect this year, if he
stays healthy, is a top tier superstar, in my opinion,
the second best player in the league. I've also long
viewed Luca as a smart defender. He has his physical limitations,
but he's usually in the right spot, and in that
last year in Dallas, in that playoff run, he was
(05:45):
very good off the ball. It was the on ball
stuff against Boston that was a problem. And then obviously
overweight Luca was a disaster against Minnesota. So if Luca
in peak shape can be a more zillient on ball defender,
that would also go go a long way towards helping
(06:05):
him avoid those pitfalls. I talked about this concept when
we were talking about Luca's conditioning a few weeks back.
But it's about the idea of flattening out drives. So,
for instance, we know Luca's gonna be fine off the ball.
He's a great defensive rebounder. He can cover ground and
be in the right spot in helpside rotations right, But
in terms of containing the basketball, it's just about flattening
(06:25):
out drives. If you give up clean, straight line dribble penetration,
it is very difficult to cover for with your back
four defenders. But if you can flatten the drive, meaning
instead of going straight at the rim having to go
around you because you're beating him to a spot and
forcing him to take a weird angle to get around you.
(06:46):
If you do that, you can plan for it and
you have a chance to succeed defensively. So that's going
to be a big part of it for him with
his improved conditioning. Doesn't need to be Davion Mitchell. There
are lots of limited offensive players that have found roles
on championship teams or limited defensive players, I should say,
But in order for him to do that, he's got
(07:07):
to be able to flatten now drives when he defense
and switches, especially since jj Reddick in all likelihood is
going to lean on a lot more switching like he
usually does. I'm very excited to watch this rejuvenated version
of Luca. I think he's the only player in the
league that has the potential to close the gap when
nikol Jokic in the short term. There's obviously some guys
in the long term who could potentially do it, But
(07:27):
in the short term like this season. I think he's
the one guy who has the potential to really get
close to where Nikol Jokich is because he's the only
other player in the league who can be an APEX
scorer and an APEX playmaker. He's the only other guy
other than Jokic, and that's why I had him at
number two in my player rankings for the second year
in a row. The second exciting piece of news for
(07:49):
Lakers fans is the DeAndre Ayton signing. I've never been
a big DeAndre Ayton fan, and that even goes back
to his days with the arizon A Wildcats. Remember I'm
from Tucson. His inconsistent motor and his personsonality just drive
me crazy. But in theory, this is the ideal circumstance
for him to have a career year. For starters, he's
the perfect pick and roll partner for Luka Doncic. He's
(08:12):
a very good vertical spacer with good hands who can
finish very well on the role in a variety of ways.
He shot fifty eight percent from the field on rolls
last year. He only took four pick and pop threes,
but he made three of them. It was like the
only place he shot well from three. He shot seventy
four percent at the rim overall, and he had seventy
one dunks. He can finish lobs, he can shoot layups
(08:33):
better than most bigs, and he's a very good short
role scorer because he has a deadly mid range jump shot.
He took seventy four mid range jump shots last year
in made fifty five point four percent of him. That's
one point one to one points per shot, which is
very efficient. He's also a good short range score. He
was fifty four percent on floaters in hooks last year
(08:53):
ninety five attempts. So I think he's a very high
level role man that's going to unlock a lot of
things in a pick and roll partnership with Luca. Now,
the two things to keep an eye on with eight
and on offense when he's on the floor are one
his playmaking and two his screening. So with his playmaking
for his career, he has more turnovers than assists. So
when he catches on the short roll, let's say Luca
(09:15):
ball screen with aighton big shows up high or blitzes,
Luca drops it over the top eight and catches around
the foul line and he turns and faces and the
defense rotates to him. Will he be able to make
the passing or reads out of that. That's going to
be a big swing factor for the Lakers. And then
the second piece of screening. He doesn't make as much
contact on his screens as he probably should. But I'm
(09:37):
more worried about this with Lebron and Austin guys who
kind of struggle to beat guys off the dribble, because
Luca has an insane gift for getting past his man
even without screen. So I think eight and if he
can stay healthy, him and Luca will be one of
the most deadly pick and roll partnerships in the league,
if not the most deadly. I am not very optimistic
about DeAndre Ayton's defense. The wretches in his career where
(10:01):
he's been solid and pick and roll, and he had
some admirable possessions in the twenty twenty one finals against Giannis,
although ultimately he lost that battle. But he's been a
lot more bad than good in his career on that
end of the floor, and last year he was really bad.
When I was watching all the film earlier this summer
when they signed him Portland mainly had him sit way
back in like a comically deep drop coverage way back
(10:22):
in the paint. JJ is almost certainly going to ask
him to be a lot more active and a lot
more mobile in his ball screen coverages, and probably to
do more switching. Right. On the one hand, it won't
be hard for him to be better than Jackson Hayes was,
so he's certainly an upgrade, but I'm not expecting Deandretan
to anchor an elite defense or anything along those lines.
He will definitely help with rebounding, though, and I actually
(10:44):
think the combination of Luka Doncic with Lebron and Deandreten
makes for a formidable defensive rebounding group. My biggest worry
with Ayton is just his health and his overall focus.
He's failed to play in sixty games and three the
last four years. He played in just ninety five games
total in the last two seasons combined, and he's gonna
be on a team with several APEX competitors. Guys are
(11:05):
going to be chirping at him and being on his
ass every day about his focus. I'm just curious to
see how he handles that mentally. But the reason why
I think it's set up well for eight and to
have a career year is the fact that he's in
a contract year and an especially pivotal one. We know
that DeAndre Ayton is very money motivated. He's basically straight
(11:26):
up come out and told us that at several points
in his career. This season is the biggest turning point
of his career financially. If he struggles or if he
can't stay healthy, he'll probably be stuck on exceptions for
the rest of his career mid level exceptions, bi annual exceptions,
veteran minimum exceptions. If he goes out and kicks ass,
(11:48):
he could sign a four year, one hundred million dollar
deal this summer, potentially even higher depending on how much
ass he kicks right, So I think in the range
of possible outcomes, as long as his body holds up,
the Lakers should get the best possible version of Ayton
because Ayton wants money and he needs to be good
this year to get his money. With Marcus Smart, I
(12:10):
literally have no idea what to expect. He played in
a grand total of fifty four games in the last
two seasons combined, so I think going into the season
just expecting him to play seventy games would be foolish.
If he's healthy, He's exactly what the Lakers need. He's
an excellent point of attack defender that allows the Lakers
to run traditional pick and roll coverages. And he's a
virstatle offensive player that can thrive off of the advantages
(12:32):
that Luca can create. But at this point, I have
a really hard time generating any optimism surrounding Smart until
he actually shows he can stay on the court. That's
really all I'm going to say about him for right now.
Looking at the big picture, I think this Lakers team
is going to be a top three offense if they
can stay healthy. Luca is the second best offensive player
in the league, and I think he's gonna have the
(12:52):
best season of his career this year. They have tons
of play finishing and ball handling. I think a key
challenge for JJ Reddick will be getting the Laker to
play with pace. Lebron and Luca both have a tendency
to slow the game down and play deep into the
shot clock. I think that would be a waste of
this team strengths. This is not a team that has
a bunch of play finishers. They do have play finishers,
(13:13):
but they have guys who can put the ball on
the floor and make plays with the ball. So if
you're throwing your first kickout pass with like seven seconds
on the shot clock, you don't have much time to
capitalize in all your aggregate offensive talent. You want Luca
or Lebron to be making that first pass with like
twelve or thirteen seconds on the shot clock, so that
you have time for multiple attacks. Everyone can stay involved
(13:35):
and you can break the defense down incrementally with what
your strength is, which is your aggregate offensive skill. This
was a concept I actually talked about a lot, if
you guys remember correctly, after the twenty twenty four finals
when the MAVs lost, they made several moves that summer
that geared more towards ball handling, including making a simple
shift like going from Derek Jones Junior, who's more of
(13:56):
a D and three kind of guy, to a Naji
Marshall who is a guy who can with the ball
on the floor more and do some more things on
the bounce right. And I talked after that that it
made more sense for them to stop playing so slow
and deliberate and to play faster because they had more
ball handling off of Luca. I think this group would
very similarly benefit from that kind of style if they
(14:16):
do and a couple of specific things happen, like eight
and stays healthy, Lebron stays healthy, Austin Reeves improves as
a catch and shoot player, which I think he will.
I think this Lakers team can crack a one twenty
offensive rating. That's something that I have my eye on.
As for the defense, I don't see how they could
break the top ten without a trade. Their best point
(14:37):
of attack defenders at this point are Marcus Smart, who
can't stay healthy, and Jared Vanderbilt, who struggles to stay
on the floor because he can't do anything on offense.
They have a mediocre to bad defensive anchor at center,
they have a forty year old who's their low man
who likes to take regular season nights off on defense,
and Austin and Luca are both inferior athletes. So to me,
(14:58):
it seems more likely than that they're a bottom ten
defense this year, somewhere in that like twenty one to
twenty three range, But their pathway to title contention lies
in getting from that. What I expect to be in
the low twenties on defense to that like twelve to
fifteen range. So how do they do that? How does
(15:18):
Thiskers team become a mediocre to slightly above average defense?
Starts with scheme versatility. So if you get quality seasons
out of Marcus Smart and Jared Vanderbilt. So if like
Marcus Smart is just healthy, and if Jared Vanderbilt gets
better at corner threes or better at little floaters in
the lane or whatever it is, he needs to be
more useful on offense that allows you to run traditional
(15:39):
coverages as well as the switching scheme that JJ likes
to lean on. If they then mix in some zone,
which as we saw with Denver zone can cause problems
for OKC and probably should be in your bag if
you're playing in the Western Conference. If they get that
kind of scheme versatility that could help, and then just
overall a commitment to the details down the roster. They
(16:00):
have a ceiling if they hit all those notes of
somewhere in that twelfth to fifteenth best defense. If they
get into that range, that's where I would start to
take them seriously as a contender. But I'm pretty pessimistic
about that right now. I view the Lakers as a
solid second tier contender. They have a larger range of
(16:20):
outcomes in both directions than most of these teams. Right, Like,
they have bad injury luck, Like if Lebron at forty
forty one gets hurt, Faydon gets hurt, Marcus Mart gets hurt,
Luca sometimes can miss fifteen twenty games. If that sort
of thing happens, they could quickly drop into the play in,
which is obviously unbecoming of a team that we look
at as a second tier contender. But if Lebron is
(16:41):
healthy and stays at that second team all NBA level
and Marcus Smart returns to like ninety percent of the
player he was before injury, and if Luca plays like
an MVP and you get seventy games out of DeAndre Ayton,
I think they could get the three seed again. So
they have like a pretty wide range of outcomes. My
hope is a Lakers fan, is that they make some
sort of aggressive deal. I really really like the idea
(17:03):
of Andrew Wiggins in a Lakers jersey. I think Wiggins
could solve their two biggest issues. A starting caliber III
that can guard the opponent's best player and just an
overall increase in athleticism for a team that lacks athleticism.
If they got Wiggins and they hit all those other
notes I just listed, I think they can actually be
as good as Denver or Oklahoma City. It's just both
(17:25):
of those outcomes I view as seriously unlikely. So I
think they're a textbook second tier contender. There's a pathway,
but it's an unlikely one at this point. Next team,
the Los Angeles Clippers. Today's show is brought to you
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eight eight admit it. In Indiana, if you or someone
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eight hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee,
or Virginia ROF season recap. They lost Mere Coffee, Drew Eubanks,
(19:14):
Norman Powell, and Ben Simmons, and they added Bradley Beal,
John Collins, Brook Lopez, and Chris Paul. A lot of
really nice talent upgrades there, Like Norman Powell is better
than Bradley Beal at a few key things, but brad
will be able to scale up his ball handling when
Kawhi is out of the lineup for rest or for injury.
That gives him some unique value within this particular Clippers team.
(19:36):
John Collins is generally an underrated player because when he
went to Utah he learned how to shoot, so now
he's like a real weapon on offense who can pick
and pop and pick and roll. I think he's gonna
be an excellent fit with James Harden and Chris Paul.
Brook Lopez is a much better backup center than Drew Eubanks,
and he gives you a specific size upgrade for the
Jokic matchup. And CP three is a backup like if
(19:57):
he's not starting for you. If CP three is a backup,
that's as good an option as you'll find in the league.
So a lot of really nice talent upgrades there for
the Clippers. In other words, the Clippers have their issues
in their top end talent, which we'll discuss in a minute,
but they have unquestionably improved their roster and balanced it
in some key ways that give them more upset potential
against teams like Denver and Oklahoma City. The first and
(20:20):
most exciting part of this is the depth of offensive talent.
Because of the addition of Chris Paul, you can legitimately
count on forty eight minutes of top end pick and
roll shot creation. Chris had his issues when he was
heavily featured, like in his starting role at this point
in his career, but he is still one of the
very best pick and roll players in the league. Last
(20:41):
year with the Spurs, and again that's a limited offensive team,
he generated one point zero eight points per pick and
roll including passes on eight hundred and ninety two reps.
Out of the twenty seven players who locked at least
seven hundred and fifty in the NBA. That ranked eighth.
That's really high on that list. And then obviously James
Harden is your foundation in that area as a pick
and roll shot creator, but you also have a plethora
(21:03):
of pick and roll screening options now, like it's not
just zobots anymore. You have John Collins and Brook Lopez
to add to the mix. John Collins tends to roll
more than pop out of ball screens, at least that's
what he did in Utah. But a big part of
that too, stems with the way that rosters put together.
I think he'll do most of his work as a
vertical spacer on this team, like cutting along the baseline
(21:24):
and rolling out of screens. But he also shot forty
percent on pick and pop threes last year, and he
was forty three percent overall on unguarded catch and shoot threes,
so I think he provides an interesting screening option. And
then Brook Lopez on massive volume. He shot one hundred
and fourteen pick and pop threes last year, made thirty
eight percent of them, and when he rolled into twos
he shot sixty one percent. He was still like one
(21:45):
point one nine to five points per rollman possession, which
was one of the better marks in the league. Like
Brook is still a very very useful pick and roll
partner for one of those handlers, and so all game long,
when you play the Clippers, you're gonna be dealing with
devastating two man game duos. And by the way, I
haven't even mentioned Kawhi Leonard, who's the best player on
(22:07):
the team, or Bradley Beal, who obviously brings dynamic ball
handling to the table. So for a team that was
the third best defense in the NBA last year that
was built on the foundation of Zubat's rim protection and
a depth of perimeter defenders, but that had some offensive limitations,
these offensive upgrades are really exciting if you're a Clippers fan.
(22:28):
I think this team has an enormous margin for error
as currently constructed, and so because of that, if I
had to pick one team that I think is most
likely to get the three seed in this case, with
Houston losing Fred van Vliet, I actually think Houston kind
of slips into that second tier of contenders. We'll talk
about that more when we talk about Houston, But with
(22:49):
Houston kind of dropping off with that injury, if I
had to pick one team to finish with the third
seed behind Oklahoma City and Denver, I think I'd picked
the Clippers. They have one of the best coaches in
the league, a deep, versatile roster built by one of
the smartest front offices in the league, and they're built
to withstand injuries because they have depth at all the
key position groups, lots of shot creation talent, lots of
(23:13):
defensive talent. I think it's highly likely that the Clippers
finish top ten in both offense and defense this year. So, Jason,
all these things you're saying seem like things you would
say about a top tier contender, but you don't have
them as a top tier contender. Why is that? And
it really just comes down to Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. James,
(23:34):
as we've discussed so many times over the years, is
a player I have enormous respect for, especially in the
regular season context. Like I think he's still one of
the better floor raising offensive engines in the entire NBA.
He's durable, He basically guarantees you a competitive offense in
the regular season. I think he's worth every penny on
his contract. But he routinely falls apart and becomes borderline
(23:57):
ineffective when he gets to high leverage playoffs. And this
was a problem when he was a younger and more
explosive version of himself. Now, the insurance against that used
to be that if you got Kawhi Leonard to the postseason.
He was Robot Kawhi, who was a top five player
in the league, who could go toe to toe with
any star in the NBA and really take over in
(24:19):
those spots and give you the margin for air to
withstan James Harden shortcomings. But we had that series against
Denver last year and it was the first time that
healthy Kawhi didn't look like a top tier guy. And
that's what's concerning, especially since Denver defensively is not exactly
what you would call it a juggernaut, although they were
(24:39):
a better playoff defense than you would have expected last year,
they finally got into the playoffs ready to go in healthy,
and he just looked like a second tier guy. He
had that one insane game in Game two where he
made every shot and walked the Nuggets down down the stretch,
but outside of that game, his volume was low, his
efficiency was low by superstar standards, I mean, and he
(25:02):
struggled with double teams, like really struggled with double teams.
That's a huge concern because again, in all your previous
playoff runs, if Kawi was out there and if he
was healthy, you just felt like he was one of
the apex stars in the NBA who could outplay anybody.
And that just doesn't seem to be the case anymore.
And so if those days are gone and James Harden
(25:24):
is your number two, that's more or less a death
sentence against either of the top teams like Denver or
Oklahoma City, and it could easily get you beat against
any of the second tier teams. And like, yeah, well
you came very close to beating Denver last year. Well,
you got your ass kicked in Game seven. Okay, a
couple of the shots went against you early in the series.
You have the Aaron Gordon game winner. Game one is
(25:46):
a close game, right, But if you really dig into it,
Denver's improvements, the Clippers made some nice improvements. Denver's improvements
were more substantial. They added depth like you did, but
they also substantially upgraded a starting role. It's the best
version of it team that Nikola Jokic has had. They'll
be the best player with the better team in that
series Oklahoma City. There are gonna be key improvements from
(26:07):
guys like Jalen Williams and guys like Chet Holmer, and
they're gonna be better. Right. So, like the way I
look at it, with Kawhi Leonard and James Harden being
at this phase in their careers, it just feels improbable
to me that they could beat the top teams and
even some problems that could present themselves against the second
tier teams. So, like again, the Clippers, to me, I'm
(26:27):
a big fan of their basketball organization. Like again, I'm
not talking about their ownership group, who may or may
not be staring down the barrel of some significant punishment
for cheating, but their basketball ops. I'm just a huge fan.
I think they represent excellence in modern basketball. I love
everything about their philosophy and their approach to team building,
(26:50):
but ultimately, their top end talent just isn't good enough
to push them past the top tier or into the
top tier of championship contenders next to Golden State Warriors.
Important to disclose here, at the time of this recording,
the Warriors have not yet resolved the Jonathan Kaminga saga.
They only have nine players on the roster at this point.
We will obviously have an instant reaction video when that
(27:12):
whatever happens there finally goes down and it's possible they
still pull off a trade. We'll see, but for the
purposes of this video, we're gonna proceed as though Jonathan
Kaminga re signs with the Warriors. It feels like the
most likely outcome at this point, And as part of this,
we're going to proceed as though the reported the reported
(27:33):
signings take place, so we're gonna cover them in this segment.
As though Kaminga's a warrior, Horford's a Warrior, d Anthony
Melton's a warrior, Gary Payton's warrior, Seth Curry's a warrior.
That's what we're gonna be proceeding with. In this case,
it is still possible that there's a trade, right. I
went over last week that I think they should have
taken the Malik Monk package. It would have cost the
Warriors Jonathan Kaminga and Buddy Healed, but it would have
(27:55):
brought back a really nice offensive guard in Milik Monk,
who I think is much better than Buddy Healed and
he's like a rough approximation of what Jordan Poole was
for this team in the title run. And you'd also
get a future protected first round pick that could help
you make another trade down the line to bolster the team.
And if you're concerned about losing Buddy Healed. Not only
is Malik Wonk better than him, but if you're getting
Seth Curry at a minimum contract, that basically replaces that
(28:18):
bench shooting role anyway. But either way, it looks like
that's unlikely to happen at this point. So the only
guy they like officially lost is Kevon Looney, who signed
with New Orleans. Theoretically, they could fill out the back
end of the roster with the same guys that they
had last year, guys like Gary Payne or like Pat Spencer.
But again, in reality, technically at this point they only
have nine players under contracts, so some of this is
(28:40):
in flux. But as they assuming they retain Kaminga and
they get the other guys I mentioned, the roster would
more or less look like Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green,
Jonathan Kaminga, Moses Moody, Buddy Heald, Brandon Pajemski, Tray Jackson,
Davis Gie Santos, Quinton post Al Horford, the Anthony Meltain,
Seth Currur and Gary Payton. That's a really good team.
(29:04):
You have Steph Curry, who I still view as the
third best offensive player in the entire NBA, even at
age thirty seven. Last year, when Steph was on the floor,
if you remove garbage time, which is what cleaning the
glass does, the Warriors logged a one twenty offensive rating
when Steph was on the floor. That was one of
the single most impressive statistics I saw all of last season.
(29:27):
That roster was utterly devoid of offensive talent, and Steph
dragged them to a one twenty offensive rating. I'm just
a massive believer in Steph as an offensive engine. It's
why I had him all the way up at six
in my player rankings. It just his ability to consistently
generate openings that even limited NBA players can capitalize on
(29:49):
for points, and to drag these limited lineups to the
scoring efficiency that he did. I just found it remarkable.
Jimmy Butler doesn't completely solve their roster's limitations, but he
does help in several key ways. It was a wonderful
fit on the floor with Steph as a second side
creator and as a connective playmaker. When Steph, Jimmy and
Draymon were on the floor together last year, in nine
(30:12):
hundred and fifty possessions, they logged a one to twenty
two offensive rating, which is obviously an insane number, but
he also helped with controlling the pace with his ability
to get to the foul line, and he also gave
him a higher offensive ceiling when he was anchoring those
units when Steph was off the floor. I still view
Draymond as one of the best defensive anchors in the NBA.
The Warriors were the top defense in the league post
(30:33):
All Star Break last year. You're not doing that without Draymond.
I think Horford is a dream fit with this team.
I love the idea of him alongside Draymond and Jimmy
in the front court as like a high IQ switching
defensive scheme where the three of those dudes are just
talking to each other and blowing plays up, getting in
front of the action. I think those three could be
insanely good together on that end. And then Horford provides
(30:56):
a real offensive threat at the five. He's a picking
pot big. He can hit a above the break threes,
which is key for the center position, and he also
can drive closeouts and like make drive in kick plays.
He has a ton of driving kick experience or read
and react experience. With Boston and he can beat switches,
like if he gets a small on him, you can
throw it to him in the post and he can
hit a little left shoulder hook and just quickly turn
that into points. The Warriors also have center depth with
(31:17):
Quinton Post and Tray Jackson Davis, so they can manage
Horford's minutes throughout the year depending on how his body's feeling.
I just love the fit and I can't wait to
watch him in Golden stated. Anthony Melton is obviously a
big health question mark, but he looked like a perfect
fit in the system last year before getting hurt, so
much so that it felt like it was a given
that he would return to Golden State when he got healthy.
(31:38):
It looks like he probably will. Seth Curry and Buddy
Heal provide real shooting off the bench. Brandon Pajemski and
Moses Moody provide that youthful exuberance and athleticism on the perimeter,
like I think we could see both of them starting
at various points during the season, depending on how often
Steve curtisides to start al Horford. I think Moses Moody
will improve as a shooter after he had a rough
(31:58):
end of the season on that end, he just knows.
That's his biggest point of emphasis. Brandon Pajemski had several
huge breakout games towards the end of last year. He
averaged sixteen and six over the final twenty three games
of the regular season and shot forty three percent from
three on six attempts per game over that stretch. He
fell off in the postseason, but it does feel like
Pods is like close to really settling in as a pro.
(32:23):
And he's like the quintessential Steve Kerr player because he
defends and he rebounds, and he makes good read and
react decisions in their offense. And like all of this
doesn't even count Jonathan kaminga who I don't care how
you feel about how he fits. He's just an option.
He gives you optionality there. I prefer him on another
team with an asset return for Golden State, But even
in this context of this version of the team, he'll
(32:45):
be able to help in some way, at least in
some capacity, even if it's just depth during the regular season.
And then Steve Kerr always seems to get a lot
out of the back end of the roster because this
team has such a strong basketball culture. They always look
for the right kind of guys. Steve, he teaches him
to play basketball the right way. Again, they clearly don't
have the firepower of like Oklahoma City or Benver, but
(33:07):
I view them as a solid second tier contender. The
potential upside lies in a potential trade down the line
and with Steph Curry. If Steph can get back to
that guy who can average twenty seven points per game
for an entire playoff run, that's the type of guy
with this group that I think could have some real
(33:27):
championship potential. Steph had really big nights in the postseason
last year, but he also had knights where he struggled
to score. I think him getting back up to that
high volume like he showed towards the tail end of
the season is a key swing factor for the Warriors
as well. Okay, we're gonna go much quicker on these
last two teams. First, the Sacramento Kings. They lost Markel Foltz,
(33:50):
Jake Larevia, Trey Lyles, Jonas Vuncinis, and they added Drew
you Banks, Stario Sarich, Dennis Schroeder, and their first round
pic Nick Clifford, who projects to eventually be a two
way wing in the league. I do love Dennis Schroeder.
I know he has a reputation of being like an
international killer, and yes, he was awesome in EuroBasket, But
I just think he's a really good NBA player. I
think he's about as good an option for like a
(34:12):
backup guard or like sixth starters you can find in
the league. He's a competitive mffort, he always plays hard
on both ends of the floor, and he has real
skills as a primary shot creator. Do I think the
Kings should have given him forty five million or whatever
they gave him, Probably not, but I am a big
fan of him as a basketball player. The Kings are
essentially a reboot of the Chicago Bulls from two years ago,
(34:34):
but with a better center, meaning they're a team that
has an already defined ceiling and that showed again last
year to give you an idea there. Last year in
Chicago in twenty twenty four, we talked about this a
lot on the show. They had a full season of
really good health. If I remember correctly, DeRozan, Leavine, and
Vouch all averaged like seventy five games played that year,
(34:56):
so they were all basically together for the majority of
the season. They had this massive sample size, and they
had a negative net rating in the inferior Eastern Conference.
So are you surprised that last year to end the
year with Sacramento that DeMar DeRozan, Zach Lavine, and Demonas
Sabonis in eleven hundred and twenty one possessions logged a
(35:18):
negative three point five net rating according to Clean and
the Glass. No, I'm not surprised by that. So, in
other words, this team is destined to battle for the
ninth or tenth seed all season long. If you're a
Kings fan, you're just clinging to the potential upside of
guys like Devin Carter and Keegan Murray, and you should
probably just starting to look to move guys like Kean
(35:38):
Ellis and Malik Monk for picks, because it's time to
start looking towards the future. Lastly, for today, the Phoenix
Suns quick offseason recap. They lost Brad Beale, Bowl Bull,
Kevin Durant, Tyas Jones, and Mason Plumley. They added Dylan
Brooks Jordan Goodwin, who I really like and that Suns
fans will remember. I enjoyed rooting for him. With the
Lakers last year. Jalen Green from Houston and the Kevin
(36:00):
rant trade. Come on, Malowatch in the lottery, a rim
protected a rim protecting, rim running center. And Mark Williams,
the famous Hornets center that almost became a Laker. Mark
is a super high level role man and I think
he'll kill alongside Devin Booker in two man game on offense.
But he's got major health question marks and he's like
an abysmal defender, so something to keep in mind. I
(36:21):
don't think the Suns are going anywhere by any means
this year, but I do expect him to be a
feisty team and I would not be shocked if they
won thirty five games or so. And I think they're
gonna be one of my favorite league pass teams this year.
The reason why stems from my core basketball beliefs. Ryan
Dunn and Dylan Brooks are going to make life hell
for opposing stars on any given night, especially if they
(36:45):
lean into common malowatch as a rim protector. That combination
of like aggressive physical defense with rim protection on the
backside that just gives you a really high defensive floor.
And then on the other end of the floor, I
wouldn't exactly call Devin Booker like an elite top end
off of engine, but I do think he's an underrated passer,
a very good pick and role player, and a guy
that gives you a pretty high offensive four. And say
(37:09):
what you want about Jalen Green, that dude plays in
every single game and he can have some explosive scoring nights.
He had thirty two games last year with at least
twenty five points. They're going to have games where Jalen
Green has it going and Devin Booker is being Devin Booker,
and Brooks and Dunn are guarding dudes like crazy, which
(37:29):
I love that nickname, by the way, and the Suns
are gonna win those games even against really good teams.
So again, their absolute ceiling is probably the tenth seed,
and it's more likely than not that they'll miss the
playoffs entirely. But I do think the Suns fans will
enjoy watching and rooting for this team. I think they'll
have some really impressive wins this year. I think they'll
(37:50):
play a fun brand of basketball, and again, I think
they'll be one of my favorite league pass teams this year.
All right, guys, this's all I have for today is
always sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting me and supporting
the show. We'll be back on Whennesday to cover the
Atlantic Division out in the Eastern Conference. Lots of interesting
stuff to get into there. I'll see you guys there
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