December 31, 2025 • 40 mins
Jason reacts to the Los Angeles Lakers continuing to slide with their loss to the Detroit Pistons. He explains how Luka Doncic and LeBron James must be better for LA to turn it around this NBA season, plus how Cade Cunningham beat them. Then he breaks down how the Denver Nuggets will handle the Nikola Jokic injury and what's going on with Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The Volume. All right, welcome to HIMS tonight here at
the Volume Heavy Wednesday. Everybody hopeful. If you guys are
having a great week so far, I got a Jampac
show for you guys today. I wanted to hit that
(00:22):
Pistons Lakers game from last night. I thought it was
a perfect showcase of everything that made that has made
the Pistons awesome this year, is the number one seed
in the Eastern Conference, and everything that's wrong with this
Los Angeles Lakers team as I continue to seriously consider
removing them entirely from my contender tiers as we head
into contender rankings here on Friday. After that, I want
(00:43):
to talk a little bit about the Nicole Jokic injury,
looking forward at the schedule for the Nuggets and what
it means for them this season and what it means
for the rest of the Western Conference. And then at
the tail end of the show, the San Antonio Spurs
have lost two straight games since Oklahoma City, since they
dominated ok on the City the week of Christmas, and
so I want to dive into what specifically we've seen
(01:05):
in that slide, especially in the offensive end, and the
Cleveland Cavaliers deployed a very interesting defensive strategy versus that
Spurs team that I think is telling for what San
Antonio can expect to see down the line when they
get into the postseason this year. So, but you guys
are the Joe before we started. Subscribe to Pops to
Night YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos.
(01:26):
Follow me on Twitter at underscore JCNLTS. You guys, don't
miss you announcements. Don't forget to like this video. And
then last minute, least, if you want to get mail
bag questions in for our mailbag next Friday, drop them
in the full episodes in the comments just right mailbag
with the colon. Write your question and we'll get to
them in our Friday mail bags. Right, Let's talk some basketball.
So kind of a strange game Pistons Lakers. I was
(01:46):
watching the game with my wife and I told her
before the opening tip, I think the Lakers are going
to get blown out tonight. And I had three reasons
why I felt that way. One, I think the Pistons
are just a better team even under normal circumstances, and
they have menive athletic advantages all over the floor. This
has been one of the teams that I've keyed in
on as like one of the best perimeter defense, like
(02:06):
get up into the basketball, force turnovers, get out, and
transition types of teams. And we've seen the Lakers struggle
against that type of team with Phoenix for example, or
with like Oklahoma City for example. We've seen them kind
of decompose against this type of matchup, and I just
think the Pistons are a better team. Two, the Lakers
are beat up and out of rhythm, right, So you
have Austin Reeves out, you ever had Cha Mura out?
(02:28):
And you have Gabe Vincent all that, so three core
key rotation players and two starters. And then Luca's been
pretty bad by his standards for over a month now,
and Lebron is forty one years old and pretty inconsistent
as you could expect from a player that age, right,
And then three, the Lakers only know how to lose
one way. When things start to slip out of control,
they completely decompose and they get blown out. It's just
(02:49):
what they do. So I thought they'd get blown blown
out in that game last night, but it ended up
being kind of strange because it was abundantly clear that
the Pistons were better, but they couldn't pull away. The
Lakers stayed attached for basically most of the first three
quarters of this game. They were all over it on
the broadcast last night. You know, it's kind of a
Reggie Miller classic. There's so many different things in just
(03:12):
kind of a shit show of a broadcast that you
grow to expect now and you watch Reggie Miller on
the call. But they were on this particular concept like
it felt like they were playing with their food a
little bit. It felt like the Lakers were hanging around
even though they weren't playing nearly as well. And it
basically came down to two things. One, the Lakers did
a pretty good job on the offensive glass. They had
a fifteen to six second chance point advantage in this
(03:35):
particular game. In general, I think the Lakers are at
least in the last couple of games, competing in the
areas defensively and on the glass that they weren't beforehand.
And then secondly, they kept fouling, fouling, like the Pistons
just kept fouling Luca and Lebron and a lot of
like just basic foul grifting stuff that they were falling
for so, for instance, like Asar Thompson got caught reaching
(03:57):
in a bunch on Luca's little mid range jump shots.
Instead of keeping your hands back and letting him shoot,
he was constantly reaching. And Luca's just so good at
getting his arms out and grabbing your arm on his
way up on that jump shot to get to the
foul line. Kay Cunningham had a play where Lebron's facing
him up on the right wing and he just reached
in all the way and Lebron's like, all right, just
took the jump shot right into his arm and drew
(04:19):
another foul. That was the big thing that kept the
Lakers attached through the first three quarters, in addition to
the offensive rebounding, was they were getting to the foul
line a ton, and it was just them foul that
the Pistons falling for the classic grifty tricks that you
come to expect from a Luka Doncis led team. Right
that said, though throughout the entire first three quarters, I
(04:39):
thought the Pistons were getting better shots, and so it
was only a matter of time before it turned around.
And Ron Holland really was the guy who sparked the
run in that third quarter on both ends of the floor.
He learned his lesson. He had to play in the
second quarter where he was posting up Luca and he
had his arm out and Luca just kind of turned
up into his arm and on a right shoulder fade
away and drew a foul. And from that point forward
(05:02):
he was keeping his arms back and he was one
of the few guys that was doing a good job
not fouling in the second half by getting his arms
back when he was guarding Luca and then on the
other end of the floor. And this has been something
that Ron's been doing in these bench units all season,
just hard drives to the basket. He had a couple
of big driving layups in that run as well. We've
talked about this all season with the Pistons, but they
(05:24):
have a depth of athletic guards that can do ball
pressure damage, getting up into the ball, making ball handlers
uncomfortable and forcing turnovers. And then they can drive over
and over and over again, whether it's transition drives off
of the turnovers they force, or just in the half
court just beating that primary point of attack defender. It's
a cycle. They get into the ball, they make you uncomfortable,
(05:46):
They turn you over, they get out and transition and
if you saw him down in the half court, they
beat you off the dribble to get to the basket
with quick drives from their guards. They bring that level
of intensity all game, but it does really stack up
in their bench groups. That's when you see Ron Holland
and Javonte Green and Jade and Ivy and with kar
Slavern out of the lineup yesterday, we saw Marcus Sasser
(06:08):
get into the lineup. And he's a guy who's not
a regular rotation player for the Pistons, but he's another
super fast guard who can pressure the ball and he
can drive it. On the other end. I thought he
kicked Nick Smith Junior's ass yesterday on both ends of
the floor. He picked him clean at half court for
a bucket. At one point he was driving it right
at him, getting to the rim and drawing fouls. He
(06:29):
hit four threes in this game to add insult to injury.
Just a really really nice game for Marcus Sasser filling
in at that backup guard spot, and that was really
how they continued the run in that late third quarter
after Ron Holland kind of got him sparked, Marcus Sasser
drives at Nick Smith, draws a foul. Jada Ivy drives
right at Vando in transition, gets another easy layup going
(06:50):
through Jared Vanderbilt kind of backpedaling yet another reverse layup
cutting out of the left corner. On another Marcus Sasser drive,
there was just a like just kind of cut along
the baseline and cut caught Jared Vanderbilt ball watching on
the right wing or on the left wing, and just
got behind him and went up and under for a
reverse layup. And they blew that thing open up to
eight when they got into the early fourth quarter, So
(07:13):
as the Lakers were close, and they even tied it
at one point, and they were kind of hanging in
that like two to three point range there in the
middle of the third. Right at the end of the third,
that bench guard group goes on a quick run and
they're right to start that fourth quarter. Another Javonte Green
steel on Lebron on a rebound Cade runs a ball screen,
dumps it into Jay Jalen Deurney turns over his right
(07:33):
shoulder and gets a layup. Then Marcus Sasser hits both
of those threes, catches Deandreyton on his heels on the
right wing and just hits a little step back, hits
another corner three, and transition off of a drive and
kick sequence just immediately blow it open. It's fifteen, it's seventeen,
it's twenty, and exactly like we talked about at the
beginning of the show, the Lakers just decomposed. There was
(07:54):
a five minute stretch in the fourth quarter there where
it seemed like Lebron and Luca were having a competition
who could throw the worst cross court pass or interior
feed that would turn into a turnover going the other way.
It was just really poor basketball from the Lakers. I
thought Jalen Duran was an absolute monster in this game
(08:16):
on the glass as well and in the interior beating
switches we saw early in the game. Switch on the
ball screen, dump inside, little left shoulder hook over the top,
the one at the end of the game they blitz Cad,
he rolls to the middle, seals, Luca Caid pitches it in,
turns over his right shoulder and scores. I thought DeAndre
Ayton was a pretty much non factor defensively in the
(08:38):
paint in this game. Caide was able to get around
his shoulder and just finish little reverse layups, and he's
powering through everybody at the basket. The Pistons ended up
out scoring the Lakers in the paint seventy four to
forty four in this game, and it was just a
that classic kind of decomposing Lakers effort as things started
to get tough. The Pistons ended up finishing the game
(08:58):
with thirty points off of twenty one Lakers turnovers, and
they ended up going on to win that game by
twenty two points. I thought, in many ways, it was
a perfect showcase of what makes the Pistons great and
a perfect showcase of what plagues the Lakers. On both
ends of the floor. You saw everything that makes Kaid great.
The relentless rim pressure coupled with top tier playmaking. He's
(09:21):
fourth in the league and drives per game. He's downhill
all the time, and he just plays with so much
power how much time? How many times do we see
him like go through eight and then get all the
way to the basket for a layup, or just power
through his primary matchup and put it. He had that
play where he kind of headbutted the basketball after he
put it in. He just powered through the defender's chest
and went right up and banked it in twenty seven
(09:42):
and eleven last night in a game Best plus twenty
three an excellent again, an excellent showcase of what makes
CAID great. You saw the blossoming Jalen Duran, Like that
mid range jumper. He's been hitting that this year. He's
fifteen for twenty five on him. That's sixty percent, And
like he's actually becoming a semi reliable ISO option for
the Pistons this year. He's got on forty four ISOs
(10:03):
including passes. He's generating one point one six points per possession.
That's really good, about one and a half times per game.
We had a mailbag question the other day two weeks
ago talking about, like how he had been starting to
struggle a little bit with double teams in the middle
of the floor, which is what's gonna happen when you
start having success. The same thing happened to Jonathan Kaminga
was cooking everybody at the beginning of last year with
(10:25):
these like straight post ups and ISOs, and then team
started sending that second defender and that was when Kaminga
started to decompose, and like similar things were starting to
happen with Jalen Duran. And one of the things that
that we got asked in the mail bag is like,
how can they make things easier for him there? And
I talked about clearing the side for him, make it
so that he doesn't have to worry about seeing what's
happening behind him. And one of the things I've noticed
(10:46):
in the last few games, and one of the things
I've last noticed in the last few games, and I
saw this in the Clippers game that I was watching
the other day. They'll run a horn set where they
get Jalen Duran on the right, like kind of elbow era,
and they'll run that guard off of the right side,
off of like a little iverson cut to basically clear
the right side, and then they'll throw the post entry
(11:07):
to Jalen and he'll just catch, turn and face and
rip to the right. And what ends up happening there
is he doesn't have to worry about a defender coming
from that other side. He just has to worry about
half of the floor. And when he beats his man
off the dribble, he can either get all the way
to the basket like he did on the play where
he you know, beat Jake Lavea and just elbowed him
in the face. But that one wasn't even a clear side.
But it's an example of him like ripping through. But
(11:27):
if he does make any sort of defensive you know
shift happen. It's easier for him to see when they
have the side cleared. And you know what's kind of
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New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. That's all exciting for
the future of the team. You know, if he becomes
(13:13):
this kind of monstrous version of Amaro Stotdemeyer that can
hit face of jumpers and run little quick ISOs. But again,
right now, they're only doing that like once or twice
in game a game. The meat and potatoes of what's
making Jalen Duran's offensive game so successful right now is
he's got great hands, and he catches and finishes everything
on cuts and rolls. And now he can beat switches
(13:33):
because he's got that little left shoulder hook that he
can hit fifty percent of the time. And again he
was beating those Lakers switches with deep seals. He got
that one in the first half on that little left
shoulder hook. He got that one in the second half,
turning over Luca on the deep seal over his right shoulder.
Like That's what makes him the perfect role man option
with kid is he can catch and finish anywhere. Like
he can catch and finish at the foul line with
(13:55):
the little short jump shot, he can catch and finish
in the short range with a little hook. He can
catch finished with a dunker a layup underneath the basket,
and then he can beat the switch by either getting
an offensive rebound, which he gets four of every single game,
or with those deep seals for quick little hooks or turnarounds,
things along those lines, and then I'd argue that this
game was the best showcase of what's driven the majority
(14:18):
of the Pistons success this year, which is their defense.
They're the second best defensive rating team in the league
after Oklahoma City. They have six guys, like six to
seven guys who can really guard on the perimeter, and
all of them get up into the ball. They all
force turnovers. They're third in the league this year in
points off of turnovers. They get over twenty points a game,
turning the opponent over and scoring in transition. I thought
(14:40):
they had gotten away from it a little bit in
the Jazz and Clippers games. I thought their defense just
wasn't very good in those two games. So Star Thompson's
been having a little bit of a problem with some
of these bigger forwards, and Luca got him with the
foul grift in Kawhi, which is kind of bullying in
the other night. But overall, they got back on track
in a big way last night against a Lakers team
that you know has some offensive town and even with
(15:00):
their injuries, I mean, you say what you want about
that roster. You're dealing with Luca and Lebron for forty
eight minutes. It wasn't an easy challenge for them defensively,
and I thought the Pistons got back on track there.
One of my most you know, one of the things
that gets me most excited about this Pistons team as
a potential playoff threat as the years go by, is
just how big an athletic and physical they are at
(15:21):
every single position group. They're huge and athletic. At center.
We talked about Duran. Isaiah Stewart was great last night
coming in off the bench. He was I think he
was like something crazy like plus twenty one in his
minutes last night. Like Isaiah Stewart was excellent. They have
this death lineup of like awesome point of attack guards.
Over and over again. You get through this Star Thompson
(15:43):
group and then all of a sudden, it's like here
is Javonte Green, here is Jade and Ivy, here is
Ron Holland, and they are just getting up into your
jersey for forty eight minutes. And then you have the
star in Kay Cunningham, whose entire identity as a player
is physicality, just overwhelming defenses with downhill force. I'm just
(16:05):
really happy for Pistons fans. I think you guys have
an awesome team. They're really fun to watch. They're built
the right way to have success both in the regular
season and in the postseason, and they're still barely scratching
their potential. We'll see what happens with Jalen during in
the long run with this skill development, if he can
become a more dynamic offensive player. We'll see what happens
with Jade and Ivy if he can actually stay healthy
(16:25):
for fifty games and really start to build a rhythm
and show what he can do on offense. And Caid
the pull up three point shot and the pull up
mid range shot and some of the rim finishing stuff.
I think that will all improve as the years go by.
The turnovers, all that stuff's going to get better, and
so there's a lot to be excited about if you're
a Pistons fan. On the Lakers front, take your pick.
(16:46):
It was all on display last night. Every issue that
they've had this season. I know they've had some injuries,
and that was the focal point in some of the
postgame pressers last night. I know Lebron was talking about
it in his postgame presser, and look, I'm not gonna
site here and pretend like Austin Reeves isn't super important
to this team. Certainly is. But regardless of whether or
not you think Rui should start, you'd prefer to have
him available in the rotation. You need to have Austin
(17:07):
Reeves out there. Gabe Vincent does give you another option
in terms of speed foot speed on the ground for
a team that desperately needs it. That said, even if
we take all those things and set them to the side,
even when the Lakers are healthy, these issues still exist,
like the turnovers. This is a big one that I've
been keyed in on lately and all season for the
most part. And Luca fans always get pissed off at
(17:29):
me because they get so hung up on his counting stats.
And there he was again last night, thirty points and
eleven assists, and you know, JJ was talking about it
after the game, like, oh, he's leading the league in scoring,
He's got the balance figured out, and like, I just
am not seeing it that way, like Luca posted a
usage rate of thirty nine percent last night, He's gonna
hit counting stats, but when you dig into it, the
(17:50):
only consistent success he's having right now is getting to
the foul line by twerking into defenders. Once again last night,
thirteen missshots, eight miss threes, eight turnovers. Eight miss threes
and eight turnovers are gonna lead to a lot of
buckets going the other way. A lot of these step
back threes off the top, they happen with poor floor balance,
(18:11):
and then Luca's a bad transition defense defender, so they
end up in layups going the other way. Since Luca
went to Slovenia, he's shooting forty two percent from the
field in twenty eight percent from three, and he's turning
the ball over five times per game. Yeah, he's getting
thirty points per game in that span, but he's just
(18:31):
missing way too many shots and turning the ball over
way too much to be as impactful as he's capable
of being. And like guys, it's a chore to watch.
He's not beating anyone off the dribble. His entire offensive
game right now is predicated on a step back three
that he can't make in torking for fouls along the
lane line. Even his two point shooting has cratered since
(18:55):
the start of the season. Before going to Slovenia, he
was shooting sixty percent on twos. He's down to just
fifty four percent on twos. And he's been a disaster
on the defensive end. Like, here's the thing, Like the
Lakers have a boatload of issues that go well beyond Luca,
but Luca is also playing like somewhere around the tenth
to twelfth best player in the world right now, not
(19:17):
the third best player in the world, and it's making
things even harder on the Lakers. Lebron's been better defensively
and on the glass in the last couple of games.
He's responded well after that embarrassing effort on Christmas Day,
but I thought this was one of his worst offensive
games since coming back, Unable to generate an advantage some
really poor shot selection. He's been settling for some really
(19:37):
tough pull up threes as well. Both him and Luca
have this problem with trying to make highlight passes like
these interior feeds or these super tight window passes that
sometimes work, but they regularly turn into turnovers. And a
classic example, there's a play in the first half where
Lebron's posting up on the left block and he throws
a lob to Jackson Hayes kind of cutting down the middle,
(19:58):
and Isaiah Stuart gambles for it and he misses it,
and so Jackson catches it and he goes up and
he dunks it, and it's like, okay, Like Lebron gets
an assist there. It's easy dunk for Jackson Hayes, right,
But it was a really tight window pass. And if
that passes, you know, maybe an inch lower, Isaia Suwer
gets a finger on it. Now Detroit's running out the
other way with another advantage because the Lakers had a
(20:18):
bunch of players below the foul line. Again, and it's
like that was a high risk type of play that
happened to lead a reward on that play. How many
other times in the game did we see a lob
that ended up being turned over because Lucas trying to
throw a lob to Jared Vanderbilt, who's not a vertical
spacer cutting along the baseline and ends in a turnover,
(20:38):
or Lebron trying to rifle a pass to eight and
on a deep seal when he doesn't even have the seal,
you know, it doesn't even have the angle created for
the pass. These are all like super low percentage passes
that have a small percentage chance of ending in a bucket,
but a high percentage chance and ending in a transition
opportunity going the other way. And I think both Luca
(21:00):
and Lebron have to do a better job taking care
of the basketball. That was a huge thing. You talk
about thirty points off of turnovers for the Pistons, the
majority of those came down to straight up mistake making
or like and ones that don't reflect as points off
of turnovers. Bad shots, these bad pull up threes that
ended up leading in buckets the other way. Just a
(21:21):
lot of like really poor process from Lebron and Luca
that has helped a night offense going the other way
for the Pistons and for other teams over the course
of these last couple of weeks. Like here's the thing,
the poor roster construction was on display again last night,
Like the complete lack of athleticism and shooting in this
eleven game span where the Lakers are five and six,
they're shooting just thirty three percent from three that's the
(21:42):
fourth worst mark in the entire league in that span.
They look completely overmatched athletically. Like I actually thought the
Lakers played hard last night on defense. It wasn't an
effort thing. They're just giving up so much speed all
over the floor. Like Lakers fans were complaining about Marcus
Sasser going from not playing to play awesome, and like,
it's not some weird sort of voodoo. It's not like, oh,
(22:04):
he just gets up for the Lakers. It's because he
has a massive speed advantage. He's faster than everybody, and
so he's comfortable, and like just about every NBA player,
if they're comfortable, is able to go off and put
up big point totals. All of the stuff about the
roster and Rob Polinka and how he's failed to do
his job over the last half decade, all that remains true.
(22:25):
But as a practical matter, this is the roster, probably
for another five weeks. As a practical matter, Austin Reeves
is gonna miss all this time before the All Star
break or the or the trade deadline. The Laker supporting
cast kind of is what it is right now. It's
not gonna magically get better. If you're waiting for Marcus
(22:46):
Smart and Jake Laavia to knock down open threes, I
don't think it's gonna happen. The one thing that actually
can happen between now and February that can help float
the ship until untill reinforcements arrive, until Austin Reeves gets back,
until a trade gets made, is Luca can start making
(23:06):
more shots and turning the ball over less and making
a better effort on defense. Lebron can anchor the defense,
anchor the defensive glass, and provide more consistent production in
support of Luca. Those two things actually can happen. There's
a far better chance of that happening than Marcus Smarter
(23:27):
Jake Laavia shooting fifty percent on catch and shoot threes
and turning this thing around. It has to start with
the guys at the top. That's why I always focus
on those guys. I know Luca can trim some of
these bad step back threes out. I know Luca can
do a better job taking care of the basketball. He
just has to do it. Those guys have to be
better or things could spiral out of control here. So
(23:53):
we got some bad news the other day. I suppose
it's actually good news, but it's bad news seeing nikolay
Yokic go down way that he did. But we got
a report that it was a hyper extension that comes
attached to a bone bruise that's going to require some
time to heal. So it looks like Nikoliokic is going
to be out for at least four weeks, probably until
after the All Star break. This Nugget season has been
(24:15):
completely cursed from the start. Aaron Gordon came out looking
as good as ever to start the season and he
goes down with a hamstring injury on an awkward step
against the Houston Rockets. Christian Brown ends up going down.
Cam Johnson finds his groove with the team after a
rough start, and then he goes down. And now Nikolijokic
a knee hyper extension that's going to hold him out
until after the trade deadline. First of all, nikol Jokic
(24:36):
in the first ten years of his career average seventy
five games played per season, so a remarkable example of
regular availability to his team, for which he deserves a
ton of credit. And it's just a bummer to see
him go down like this. When he was playing the
best basketball of his career, so let's hope for Da
kol Jokic's sake that he makes a speedy recovery and
is able to return sooner than later. Taking a peek
(24:58):
at the situation for the Nugget, they're twenty two to ten,
currently in sole possession of the three seeds, so they
did a good job banking wins despite the injuries to
start the year. They are three games up on the
Phoenix Suns for the first playing spot that seven seed,
and they're five and a half games up on the
Warriors for the eighth seed. I think there's some risk
(25:19):
here that the Nuggets could fall that far seven and
a half games up on Memphis for the nine seed.
Things would have to get exceptionally ugly for them to
slip that far. It's tough to find wins on the schedule,
but like if you really look at it, so there's
twenty four games between now and the and the All
Star Break. Let's say that you know Memphis is gonna
(25:41):
win somewhere around eleven of those games, right, So, like
you really only have to win, you know, five or
six games in the next twenty four in order for
you to avoid slipping all the way to that nine seed.
So I think it's possible that they slip as far
below as far down as eight, but I don't think
they'll slip as far down is nine. Looking at the
schedule now as you try to dig into it, like
(26:04):
I was looking at the schedule specifically looking for like
bankable wins, like games that I feel really good about
their ability to win. And what I'm looking at there
is home games against bad teams, because obviously, without Jokic
you can lose to anyone, but in front of your
home crowd, competing on defense, you have a decent chance
against some of these bad teams to come away with wins.
They have a home game versus Washington in the SPAN,
(26:26):
home game versus Charlotte, home game versus Brooklyn. So if
you pull those three out and again those are not
guaranteed wins, But if you pull those three out and
then you really just have to win like three of
the other nineteen games, three of the other you know,
four of the other nineteen games to be in pretty
solid position to be able to make a late season run.
So I do think that's doable. It just gets really
(26:49):
tough when you start to dig in to what the
lineup data has shown for the Nuggets this year. So
if you look at the lineup data, the one lineup
that they've actually used considerably this year with Jokic, Brown,
Gordon and Johnson all off the floor is a group
that's played one hundred and forty seven possessions. It's Jamal Murray,
Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway, Peyton Watson, and Yonis Valentunis. That
(27:12):
group has a minus thirteen net rating in one hundred
and forty seven possessions if you take all the lineup data,
so every possession the Nuggets have played without Jokis, Brown,
Gordon and Johnson on the floor, the Nuggets are minus
twenty six points per one hundred posessions in four hundred
five possessions. Good amount of garbage time in there, though,
So you can't take that all, you know, as like
(27:33):
just solid, solid data under the circumstances. So the way
you're looking at it is you're basically starting from scratch.
My guess is that they'll start games with a similar
version of that lineup. Instead of Bruce Brown, I think
they'll probably go for Spencer Jones, so it'll probably be
like Jamal Murray and Tim Hardaway with Peyton Watson and
Spencer Jones and Yonas Valentunas. That's my guess as to
(27:54):
how they start games. But really it's gonna come down
to the defensive end. If you're gonna have any chance
to win these games, you got to keep your team
attached and stay close enough to end up in clutch situations.
You can get into clutch situations. Jamal's going to pull
out a few of these games with his shot making,
but you gotta be able to get into some close
games late. The best way to do that is to
play great defense every night. So really look at David
(28:17):
Adelman to emphasize and drill the defensive end of the floor.
In the coming weeks, my guess is that they'll lean
into variance. This team actually does have some defensive talent
that can guard the ball available, Like Bruce Brown can
guard the ball a little bit, right, Jalen Picking and
guard the ball a little bit. Peyton Watson can guard
the ball a little bit. So what I think they'll
do to lean into variance is basically force teams to
(28:39):
make jump shots. I'd expect to see a lot of
deep drop coverage, so Yonis valenciun Is sitting way back,
asking those guards to chase over the top and funnel,
offering a little bit more help from the weak side
and essentially making teams win by hitting pull up jumpers
in the mid range and by knocking down kickout threes
at least, then you can lean into variants where maybe
(28:59):
they're four or five nights over the next twenty four
games where dudes just missshots, and if dudes just misshots,
you have a good chance to win in a close
game late right, I think the big key there is
going to be avoiding transition. So on the offensive end,
with the type of talent that they have available, you
just can't turn the ball over. And you have to
(29:20):
make sure you have your transition defense set up, meaning
good floor balance. If Jamal Murray's driving off the top,
you gotta have guys wheeling up above the break. You
gotta have two guys above the foul line at all times.
Those dudes got to get back. As a team, You've
got to sprint back. You cannot get massacred in the
margins and have a chance to win. Take care of
the basketball, set up your transition defense, lean into variants
(29:42):
with deep drop coverage, make teams score and pick and
roll and score on kickouts. Try to keep things close
with your defense on the other end of the floor
in a close game late I like the idea of
Yonas Malacunas and Jamal Murray being able to pull out
some games with their two man game. Here's the thing,
so before you go big picture, Aaron Gordon and Christian
(30:03):
Brown will probably return at some point in January to help.
You can't risk it in terms of re injury, Like
there's no point in rushing them back, even if it
hurts you in the standings, there's no point in rushing
them back. But if those guys can come back at
some point in January, that obviously gives you additional options.
Aaron Gordon is capable of scaling up offensively. He's been
doing a lot of work out of the post this year.
(30:24):
He can really shoot the ball from three right. Christian
Brown and Aaron Gordon both represent excellent defensive weapons to
give you a better chance to compete on that end
of the four. Those guys coming back will help. Do
not rush them back, though, because here's the thing, this
has the potential to get really ugly for the next month,
and I think there's a good chance that Denver drops
down to like the seventh or eight seed, and maybe
(30:44):
even lower. But I think they'll end up right around
the seventh or eight seed when Nicole Yokic comes back.
But when this team is healthy, they have clearly demonstrated
themselves as a top tier contender in this league. So
even if they are the seventh seed, if they have
all these guys healthy and there are in rhythm when
they get to mid April, they're every bit as dangerous
(31:04):
as any of these other contenders at the top of
the league when they get there. So, if anything, this
injury is actually really bad luck for the top teams
in the West, Houston, Oklahoma City, San Antonio. I think
that'll probably end up being our top three seeds when
it's all said and done. One of them is probably
gonna have to play Denver in the first round. It's
a hell of a reward for a great regular season.
(31:27):
It also feels more likely than not that if they
do climb out of the play in that they end
up in like a four or five seed, and if
they end up there, they could end up facing Oklahoma
City in the second round, and that would be a
brutal second round matchup for a team like Oklahoma City,
who's gonna be the runaway number one overall seed. Right,
So again, it's just about managing the long game here.
You just need to get to April healthy. Seating no
(31:48):
longer matters at this point. You're gonna win a play
in game. You're gonna be just fine if you end
up in that situation. All you have to do here
is avoid an absolute catastrophe over the course of the
next twenty four games. You can do that by winning
your must win home games against Washington, against Brooklyn and Charlotte.
Do I think those were the three if I remember
correctly that they're playing at home, and then lean into
(32:09):
your defense, keep games close, and hopefully Jamal can pull
a couple out. You just need five or six wins
between now in early February to be able to survive
what's happening with the Spurs. First of all, I've seen
a lot of talk surrounding the idea that the Spurs
can only beat the Thunder. That's ridiculous. Even after those
(32:29):
two losses, the Spurs are fifteen to five in their
last twenty games. They were the best team in the
league by record for like six weeks, so they've had
plenty of success beating teams that aren't the Oklahoma City Thunder.
And again that's what Victor Orman ya, I'm missing the
majority of that time, And if you really look at
where they're at in the standings and how much time
Fox has missed and how much time Wenby has missed,
I think it's ridiculous to synthesize their success down to
(32:51):
just beating the Thunder. They've had plenty of wins against
everyone else, including ripping through Denver in LA to get
into the n season Tournament. That said, I do think
these two losses did show some stuff that the Spurs
will have to contend with before they can reach their
ultimate goals. And I want to zoom in on the
Calves game for a minute. First of all, shout out
to the Calves. I thought they just played a really
good defensive game, all sorts of deflections and steals, just
(33:14):
with their activity and rotation. Overall, over the course of
the last four or five games or so with Cleveland,
I've seen a market increase in their intensity and just
kind of starting to recapture a little bit of that,
like just Calves flair that they had last year on
both ends of the floor, And honestly, if it wasn't
for Tyler Colech and Jylen Brunson hitting four straight threes
(33:34):
to end Christmas Day, they'd be four and one in
their last five games. So I'm starting to buy more
Calves stock. I'm starting to feel better about them. I
thought they played a really good game against the Spurs,
so let's get give them some credit for that. But
they deployed an interesting defensive strategy in that game that
I think we'll see more of against San Antonio, and
I think it's something that they're going to deal with
in the postseason when they get there. They basically use
(33:55):
their forwards to guard san Antonio's guards of Dean Wade,
a lot of DeAndre Hunter, a lot of Evan Mobley,
a lot of Nakuon Tomlin guarding Steph Castle, guarding Dylan Harper.
And when they were on those guys, they were going
way back, like sagging way back and then going underneath screens.
(34:18):
The reason why this is really smart is it puts
the guards in a bind. The correct read there if
you're dribbling, if you're Steph Castle and you're drilling at
the three point line and Dean Wade's playing at the
foul line or like, you know, a little bit above
the foul line, like five feet away. The right read,
so to speak, is to take the pull up jumper
because the defender is basically conceding it to you. Right,
you're saying like, I'm gonna let you take that shot.
(34:41):
But at the same time, you don't want to settle
for pull up jumpers every time down the floor because
that can bog down an offense in a different way.
So you need to attempt to drive as much as
you can. But now you're driving the basketball at a
bigger defender who's basically backpedaling and waiting for you to
drive into him. And so as a result, they don't
(35:01):
need to offer as much help because they're containing the
ball through sagging off with these bigger forwards, and so
the spot up opportunities aren't there, the kickouts aren't there,
and it really bogged down San Antonio's offense. They generated
just nineteen spot up opportunities against Cleveland. That was their
lowest total in a game since opening night against Dallas.
(35:22):
They average as a team thirty spot up opportunities per game,
seventh most in the NBA. They got just nineteen against
the Calves because they weren't having to offer as much
help on drives because those bigger forwards were sagging, going under,
basically waiting for those dudes to drive right into their chest.
This is the thing that stands in their way. And
(35:45):
kind of this, you know, in a lot of ways,
it kind of follows a similar and familiar pathway. We've
seen this before, the young, interesting team that rises into
championship contention. How does it go? You flash dynamic upside
in this case, the ability of all your guards drive
to basketball, and then the league responds by identifying what
(36:06):
your weakness is and essentially forcing you to do something
about it. We will see this. I think we'll even
see more aggressive versions of it where it's not just
bigger forwards but also centers. They ended up deploying Jared
Allen a lot on Wemby and did a very nice job.
But like you're gonna see centers guard Steph Castle, You're
gonna see forwards guard Wenby. You're gonna see all sorts
(36:29):
of janky kind of matchups moved around. Try to make
the Spurs uncomfortable. The question is how does san Antonio
counter this? So we all agree it doesn't make a
ton of sense to just keep driving at the sagging
forward and it doesn't make a ton of sense to
just shoot a bunch of pull up threes, right, So
how do you find ways to generate openings for them
(36:51):
with the way they're being guarded? Now, there's two ways
to look at this one. In the big picture, Harper
and Castle got to improve his pull up jump shooters.
You can't get away with that sort of coverage against
the best guards in the league because they all shoot
too well. Who are the best guards in the league,
Shaye Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, Steph Curry, all these guys.
You can't do that with them because they're all elite
(37:11):
jump shooters. Harper and Castle will have to improve there
in order to make this kind of cover jobs sleep.
But again there's the practical matter. The practical matter of
this is how they are right now, Here's how they're
going to be guarded this season. What do they do
to confront this issue within this season? First of all,
this is where having Deer and Fox as a luxury.
(37:33):
He was out for the Utah Jazz game with an
adductor injury, and he didn't play well in the Cavs game.
I don't know how much of that was the adductor injury.
He didn't shoot the ball well, just had kind of
a bad night, right. But the beauty of having that
kind of depth at the guard spot is you can
play through Fox. Now if you're using Steph Castle and
Dylan Harper as places for you to ditch your forwards
(37:54):
to sag off, you can use those guys as screeners,
get him screening for deer and force the guard or
the forward who is guarding Steph Castle or the ford
who is guarding Dylan Harper to make a decision. Am
I helping? If I'm helping, then Steph's gonna slip out
of it and he's gonna have an easy driving lane.
(38:15):
Are we switching? Well? Now, Steph's gonna have a better
matchup to drive, and dearon Fox will have a better
matchup to drive. Right, Like, they're gonna have to be
more deliberate about making those forwards make decisions defensively so
that they can find better opportunities to drive. The second
piece of it, And I would argue that This kind
of is more or less the same concept. But what
(38:36):
do forwards and biggs struggle to do. They struggle to
navigate screens, So put them through as many screens as possible.
When Steph is handling the ball, runs some three man
action so he can't just go underneath, but they have
to work some sort of complicated switch where maybe somebody
gets botched and left open, or maybe Steph ends up
(38:56):
on the other side of the screen against the defender
that he's more capable of pass. But you know, the
Spurs have gotten away with a lot of simple offense
this year because of how good their guards are at
driving the basketball. So they've had a lot of early
offense ISOs off the wing or that little flare screen
from Luke Cornett off the top where they just quick
drive off of it. There's been a lot of that
kind of stuff that they've been able to get away with.
(39:17):
I think they're gonna have to get more creative to
find ways to generate offense when teams really zero in
on their weaknesses. And again, my thing is, if you're
going to defend these quick guards with these bigger forwards,
the best thing you can do is get them involved
in as much screening action as possible, both them as
the screener, whether it's for Wemby or s Forerdier and Fox,
or get multiple screeners involved when they have the ball
(39:40):
so that they can't just easily go underneath the screen
and meet you on the other side and kind of
take away that advantage. The good news is there's a
lot of time between now in mid April to figure
this stuff out. But they're going to have to figure
it out because this is going to be how teams
defend It's copycat league. It was only a matter of time.
We've seen Steph Castle and Dylan Harper just bully these
(40:02):
smaller guards all around the league, especially Oklahoma cities. So like,
we're going to see teams that have the types of
Ford personnel to do this, deploy their defense in this
way to try to make the Spurs uncomfortable and they're
just gonna have to find a way to counter it
at some point. All right, guys, It's all I have
for today is always a sincerely appreciate you guys for
supporting us and supporting the show. I'm recording with Sam
Assini later today for our contender rankings for Friday so
(40:26):
on Friday, everyone enjoy New Year's Day. I hope you
get some time to relax with your friends and family.
We will be back on Friday morning with contender rankings.
I will see you guys. Donnay
The Volume. All right, welcome to HIMS tonight here at
the Volume Heavy Wednesday. Everybody hopeful. If you guys are
having a great week so far, I got a Jampac
show for you guys today. I wanted to hit that
(00:22):
Pistons Lakers game from last night. I thought it was
a perfect showcase of everything that made that has made
the Pistons awesome this year, is the number one seed
in the Eastern Conference, and everything that's wrong with this
Los Angeles Lakers team as I continue to seriously consider
removing them entirely from my contender tiers as we head
into contender rankings here on Friday. After that, I want
(00:43):
to talk a little bit about the Nicole Jokic injury,
looking forward at the schedule for the Nuggets and what
it means for them this season and what it means
for the rest of the Western Conference. And then at
the tail end of the show, the San Antonio Spurs
have lost two straight games since Oklahoma City, since they
dominated ok on the City the week of Christmas, and
so I want to dive into what specifically we've seen
(01:05):
in that slide, especially in the offensive end, and the
Cleveland Cavaliers deployed a very interesting defensive strategy versus that
Spurs team that I think is telling for what San
Antonio can expect to see down the line when they
get into the postseason this year. So, but you guys
are the Joe before we started. Subscribe to Pops to
Night YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos.
(01:26):
Follow me on Twitter at underscore JCNLTS. You guys, don't
miss you announcements. Don't forget to like this video. And
then last minute, least, if you want to get mail
bag questions in for our mailbag next Friday, drop them
in the full episodes in the comments just right mailbag
with the colon. Write your question and we'll get to
them in our Friday mail bags. Right, Let's talk some basketball.
So kind of a strange game Pistons Lakers. I was
(01:46):
watching the game with my wife and I told her
before the opening tip, I think the Lakers are going
to get blown out tonight. And I had three reasons
why I felt that way. One, I think the Pistons
are just a better team even under normal circumstances, and
they have menive athletic advantages all over the floor. This
has been one of the teams that I've keyed in
on as like one of the best perimeter defense, like
(02:06):
get up into the basketball, force turnovers, get out, and
transition types of teams. And we've seen the Lakers struggle
against that type of team with Phoenix for example, or
with like Oklahoma City for example. We've seen them kind
of decompose against this type of matchup, and I just
think the Pistons are a better team. Two, the Lakers
are beat up and out of rhythm, right, So you
have Austin Reeves out, you ever had Cha Mura out?
(02:28):
And you have Gabe Vincent all that, so three core
key rotation players and two starters. And then Luca's been
pretty bad by his standards for over a month now,
and Lebron is forty one years old and pretty inconsistent
as you could expect from a player that age, right,
And then three, the Lakers only know how to lose
one way. When things start to slip out of control,
they completely decompose and they get blown out. It's just
(02:49):
what they do. So I thought they'd get blown blown
out in that game last night, but it ended up
being kind of strange because it was abundantly clear that
the Pistons were better, but they couldn't pull away. The
Lakers stayed attached for basically most of the first three
quarters of this game. They were all over it on
the broadcast last night. You know, it's kind of a
Reggie Miller classic. There's so many different things in just
(03:12):
kind of a shit show of a broadcast that you
grow to expect now and you watch Reggie Miller on
the call. But they were on this particular concept like
it felt like they were playing with their food a
little bit. It felt like the Lakers were hanging around
even though they weren't playing nearly as well. And it
basically came down to two things. One, the Lakers did
a pretty good job on the offensive glass. They had
a fifteen to six second chance point advantage in this
(03:35):
particular game. In general, I think the Lakers are at
least in the last couple of games, competing in the
areas defensively and on the glass that they weren't beforehand.
And then secondly, they kept fouling, fouling, like the Pistons
just kept fouling Luca and Lebron and a lot of
like just basic foul grifting stuff that they were falling
for so, for instance, like Asar Thompson got caught reaching
(03:57):
in a bunch on Luca's little mid range jump shots.
Instead of keeping your hands back and letting him shoot,
he was constantly reaching. And Luca's just so good at
getting his arms out and grabbing your arm on his
way up on that jump shot to get to the
foul line. Kay Cunningham had a play where Lebron's facing
him up on the right wing and he just reached
in all the way and Lebron's like, all right, just
took the jump shot right into his arm and drew
(04:19):
another foul. That was the big thing that kept the
Lakers attached through the first three quarters, in addition to
the offensive rebounding, was they were getting to the foul
line a ton, and it was just them foul that
the Pistons falling for the classic grifty tricks that you
come to expect from a Luka Doncis led team. Right
that said, though throughout the entire first three quarters, I
(04:39):
thought the Pistons were getting better shots, and so it
was only a matter of time before it turned around.
And Ron Holland really was the guy who sparked the
run in that third quarter on both ends of the floor.
He learned his lesson. He had to play in the
second quarter where he was posting up Luca and he
had his arm out and Luca just kind of turned
up into his arm and on a right shoulder fade
away and drew a foul. And from that point forward
(05:02):
he was keeping his arms back and he was one
of the few guys that was doing a good job
not fouling in the second half by getting his arms
back when he was guarding Luca and then on the
other end of the floor. And this has been something
that Ron's been doing in these bench units all season,
just hard drives to the basket. He had a couple
of big driving layups in that run as well. We've
talked about this all season with the Pistons, but they
(05:24):
have a depth of athletic guards that can do ball
pressure damage, getting up into the ball, making ball handlers
uncomfortable and forcing turnovers. And then they can drive over
and over and over again, whether it's transition drives off
of the turnovers they force, or just in the half
court just beating that primary point of attack defender. It's
a cycle. They get into the ball, they make you uncomfortable,
(05:46):
They turn you over, they get out and transition and
if you saw him down in the half court, they
beat you off the dribble to get to the basket
with quick drives from their guards. They bring that level
of intensity all game, but it does really stack up
in their bench groups. That's when you see Ron Holland
and Javonte Green and Jade and Ivy and with kar
Slavern out of the lineup yesterday, we saw Marcus Sasser
(06:08):
get into the lineup. And he's a guy who's not
a regular rotation player for the Pistons, but he's another
super fast guard who can pressure the ball and he
can drive it. On the other end. I thought he
kicked Nick Smith Junior's ass yesterday on both ends of
the floor. He picked him clean at half court for
a bucket. At one point he was driving it right
at him, getting to the rim and drawing fouls. He
(06:29):
hit four threes in this game to add insult to injury.
Just a really really nice game for Marcus Sasser filling
in at that backup guard spot, and that was really
how they continued the run in that late third quarter
after Ron Holland kind of got him sparked, Marcus Sasser
drives at Nick Smith, draws a foul. Jada Ivy drives
right at Vando in transition, gets another easy layup going
(06:50):
through Jared Vanderbilt kind of backpedaling yet another reverse layup
cutting out of the left corner. On another Marcus Sasser drive,
there was just a like just kind of cut along
the baseline and cut caught Jared Vanderbilt ball watching on
the right wing or on the left wing, and just
got behind him and went up and under for a
reverse layup. And they blew that thing open up to
eight when they got into the early fourth quarter, So
(07:13):
as the Lakers were close, and they even tied it
at one point, and they were kind of hanging in
that like two to three point range there in the
middle of the third. Right at the end of the third,
that bench guard group goes on a quick run and
they're right to start that fourth quarter. Another Javonte Green
steel on Lebron on a rebound Cade runs a ball screen,
dumps it into Jay Jalen Deurney turns over his right
(07:33):
shoulder and gets a layup. Then Marcus Sasser hits both
of those threes, catches Deandreyton on his heels on the
right wing and just hits a little step back, hits
another corner three, and transition off of a drive and
kick sequence just immediately blow it open. It's fifteen, it's seventeen,
it's twenty, and exactly like we talked about at the
beginning of the show, the Lakers just decomposed. There was
(07:54):
a five minute stretch in the fourth quarter there where
it seemed like Lebron and Luca were having a competition
who could throw the worst cross court pass or interior
feed that would turn into a turnover going the other way.
It was just really poor basketball from the Lakers. I
thought Jalen Duran was an absolute monster in this game
(08:16):
on the glass as well and in the interior beating
switches we saw early in the game. Switch on the
ball screen, dump inside, little left shoulder hook over the top,
the one at the end of the game they blitz Cad,
he rolls to the middle, seals, Luca Caid pitches it in,
turns over his right shoulder and scores. I thought DeAndre
Ayton was a pretty much non factor defensively in the
(08:38):
paint in this game. Caide was able to get around
his shoulder and just finish little reverse layups, and he's
powering through everybody at the basket. The Pistons ended up
out scoring the Lakers in the paint seventy four to
forty four in this game, and it was just a
that classic kind of decomposing Lakers effort as things started
to get tough. The Pistons ended up finishing the game
(08:58):
with thirty points off of twenty one Lakers turnovers, and
they ended up going on to win that game by
twenty two points. I thought, in many ways, it was
a perfect showcase of what makes the Pistons great and
a perfect showcase of what plagues the Lakers. On both
ends of the floor. You saw everything that makes Kaid great.
The relentless rim pressure coupled with top tier playmaking. He's
(09:21):
fourth in the league and drives per game. He's downhill
all the time, and he just plays with so much
power how much time? How many times do we see
him like go through eight and then get all the
way to the basket for a layup, or just power
through his primary matchup and put it. He had that
play where he kind of headbutted the basketball after he
put it in. He just powered through the defender's chest
and went right up and banked it in twenty seven
(09:42):
and eleven last night in a game Best plus twenty
three an excellent again, an excellent showcase of what makes
CAID great. You saw the blossoming Jalen Duran, Like that
mid range jumper. He's been hitting that this year. He's
fifteen for twenty five on him. That's sixty percent, And
like he's actually becoming a semi reliable ISO option for
the Pistons this year. He's got on forty four ISOs
(10:03):
including passes. He's generating one point one six points per possession.
That's really good, about one and a half times per game.
We had a mailbag question the other day two weeks
ago talking about, like how he had been starting to
struggle a little bit with double teams in the middle
of the floor, which is what's gonna happen when you
start having success. The same thing happened to Jonathan Kaminga
was cooking everybody at the beginning of last year with
(10:25):
these like straight post ups and ISOs, and then team
started sending that second defender and that was when Kaminga
started to decompose, and like similar things were starting to
happen with Jalen Duran. And one of the things that
that we got asked in the mail bag is like,
how can they make things easier for him there? And
I talked about clearing the side for him, make it
so that he doesn't have to worry about seeing what's
happening behind him. And one of the things I've noticed
(10:46):
in the last few games, and one of the things
I've last noticed in the last few games, and I
saw this in the Clippers game that I was watching
the other day. They'll run a horn set where they
get Jalen Duran on the right, like kind of elbow era,
and they'll run that guard off of the right side,
off of like a little iverson cut to basically clear
the right side, and then they'll throw the post entry
(11:07):
to Jalen and he'll just catch, turn and face and
rip to the right. And what ends up happening there
is he doesn't have to worry about a defender coming
from that other side. He just has to worry about
half of the floor. And when he beats his man
off the dribble, he can either get all the way
to the basket like he did on the play where
he you know, beat Jake Lavea and just elbowed him
in the face. But that one wasn't even a clear side.
But it's an example of him like ripping through. But
(11:27):
if he does make any sort of defensive you know
shift happen. It's easier for him to see when they
have the side cleared. And you know what's kind of
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New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. That's all exciting for
the future of the team. You know, if he becomes
(13:13):
this kind of monstrous version of Amaro Stotdemeyer that can
hit face of jumpers and run little quick ISOs. But again,
right now, they're only doing that like once or twice
in game a game. The meat and potatoes of what's
making Jalen Duran's offensive game so successful right now is
he's got great hands, and he catches and finishes everything
on cuts and rolls. And now he can beat switches
(13:33):
because he's got that little left shoulder hook that he
can hit fifty percent of the time. And again he
was beating those Lakers switches with deep seals. He got
that one in the first half on that little left
shoulder hook. He got that one in the second half,
turning over Luca on the deep seal over his right shoulder.
Like That's what makes him the perfect role man option
with kid is he can catch and finish anywhere. Like
he can catch and finish at the foul line with
(13:55):
the little short jump shot, he can catch and finish
in the short range with a little hook. He can
catch finished with a dunker a layup underneath the basket,
and then he can beat the switch by either getting
an offensive rebound, which he gets four of every single game,
or with those deep seals for quick little hooks or turnarounds,
things along those lines, and then I'd argue that this
game was the best showcase of what's driven the majority
(14:18):
of the Pistons success this year, which is their defense.
They're the second best defensive rating team in the league
after Oklahoma City. They have six guys, like six to
seven guys who can really guard on the perimeter, and
all of them get up into the ball. They all
force turnovers. They're third in the league this year in
points off of turnovers. They get over twenty points a game,
turning the opponent over and scoring in transition. I thought
(14:40):
they had gotten away from it a little bit in
the Jazz and Clippers games. I thought their defense just
wasn't very good in those two games. So Star Thompson's
been having a little bit of a problem with some
of these bigger forwards, and Luca got him with the
foul grift in Kawhi, which is kind of bullying in
the other night. But overall, they got back on track
in a big way last night against a Lakers team
that you know has some offensive town and even with
(15:00):
their injuries, I mean, you say what you want about
that roster. You're dealing with Luca and Lebron for forty
eight minutes. It wasn't an easy challenge for them defensively,
and I thought the Pistons got back on track there.
One of my most you know, one of the things
that gets me most excited about this Pistons team as
a potential playoff threat as the years go by, is
just how big an athletic and physical they are at
(15:21):
every single position group. They're huge and athletic. At center.
We talked about Duran. Isaiah Stewart was great last night
coming in off the bench. He was I think he
was like something crazy like plus twenty one in his
minutes last night. Like Isaiah Stewart was excellent. They have
this death lineup of like awesome point of attack guards.
Over and over again. You get through this Star Thompson
(15:43):
group and then all of a sudden, it's like here
is Javonte Green, here is Jade and Ivy, here is
Ron Holland, and they are just getting up into your
jersey for forty eight minutes. And then you have the
star in Kay Cunningham, whose entire identity as a player
is physicality, just overwhelming defenses with downhill force. I'm just
(16:05):
really happy for Pistons fans. I think you guys have
an awesome team. They're really fun to watch. They're built
the right way to have success both in the regular
season and in the postseason, and they're still barely scratching
their potential. We'll see what happens with Jalen during in
the long run with this skill development, if he can
become a more dynamic offensive player. We'll see what happens
with Jade and Ivy if he can actually stay healthy
(16:25):
for fifty games and really start to build a rhythm
and show what he can do on offense. And Caid
the pull up three point shot and the pull up
mid range shot and some of the rim finishing stuff.
I think that will all improve as the years go by.
The turnovers, all that stuff's going to get better, and
so there's a lot to be excited about if you're
a Pistons fan. On the Lakers front, take your pick.
(16:46):
It was all on display last night. Every issue that
they've had this season. I know they've had some injuries,
and that was the focal point in some of the
postgame pressers last night. I know Lebron was talking about
it in his postgame presser, and look, I'm not gonna
site here and pretend like Austin Reeves isn't super important
to this team. Certainly is. But regardless of whether or
not you think Rui should start, you'd prefer to have
him available in the rotation. You need to have Austin
(17:07):
Reeves out there. Gabe Vincent does give you another option
in terms of speed foot speed on the ground for
a team that desperately needs it. That said, even if
we take all those things and set them to the side,
even when the Lakers are healthy, these issues still exist,
like the turnovers. This is a big one that I've
been keyed in on lately and all season for the
most part. And Luca fans always get pissed off at
(17:29):
me because they get so hung up on his counting stats.
And there he was again last night, thirty points and
eleven assists, and you know, JJ was talking about it
after the game, like, oh, he's leading the league in scoring,
He's got the balance figured out, and like, I just
am not seeing it that way, like Luca posted a
usage rate of thirty nine percent last night, He's gonna
hit counting stats, but when you dig into it, the
(17:50):
only consistent success he's having right now is getting to
the foul line by twerking into defenders. Once again last night,
thirteen missshots, eight miss threes, eight turnovers. Eight miss threes
and eight turnovers are gonna lead to a lot of
buckets going the other way. A lot of these step
back threes off the top, they happen with poor floor balance,
(18:11):
and then Luca's a bad transition defense defender, so they
end up in layups going the other way. Since Luca
went to Slovenia, he's shooting forty two percent from the
field in twenty eight percent from three, and he's turning
the ball over five times per game. Yeah, he's getting
thirty points per game in that span, but he's just
(18:31):
missing way too many shots and turning the ball over
way too much to be as impactful as he's capable
of being. And like guys, it's a chore to watch.
He's not beating anyone off the dribble. His entire offensive
game right now is predicated on a step back three
that he can't make in torking for fouls along the
lane line. Even his two point shooting has cratered since
(18:55):
the start of the season. Before going to Slovenia, he
was shooting sixty percent on twos. He's down to just
fifty four percent on twos. And he's been a disaster
on the defensive end. Like, here's the thing, Like the
Lakers have a boatload of issues that go well beyond Luca,
but Luca is also playing like somewhere around the tenth
to twelfth best player in the world right now, not
(19:17):
the third best player in the world, and it's making
things even harder on the Lakers. Lebron's been better defensively
and on the glass in the last couple of games.
He's responded well after that embarrassing effort on Christmas Day,
but I thought this was one of his worst offensive
games since coming back, Unable to generate an advantage some
really poor shot selection. He's been settling for some really
(19:37):
tough pull up threes as well. Both him and Luca
have this problem with trying to make highlight passes like
these interior feeds or these super tight window passes that
sometimes work, but they regularly turn into turnovers. And a
classic example, there's a play in the first half where
Lebron's posting up on the left block and he throws
a lob to Jackson Hayes kind of cutting down the middle,
(19:58):
and Isaiah Stuart gambles for it and he misses it,
and so Jackson catches it and he goes up and
he dunks it, and it's like, okay, Like Lebron gets
an assist there. It's easy dunk for Jackson Hayes, right,
But it was a really tight window pass. And if
that passes, you know, maybe an inch lower, Isaia Suwer
gets a finger on it. Now Detroit's running out the
other way with another advantage because the Lakers had a
(20:18):
bunch of players below the foul line. Again, and it's
like that was a high risk type of play that
happened to lead a reward on that play. How many
other times in the game did we see a lob
that ended up being turned over because Lucas trying to
throw a lob to Jared Vanderbilt, who's not a vertical
spacer cutting along the baseline and ends in a turnover,
(20:38):
or Lebron trying to rifle a pass to eight and
on a deep seal when he doesn't even have the seal,
you know, it doesn't even have the angle created for
the pass. These are all like super low percentage passes
that have a small percentage chance of ending in a bucket,
but a high percentage chance and ending in a transition
opportunity going the other way. And I think both Luca
(21:00):
and Lebron have to do a better job taking care
of the basketball. That was a huge thing. You talk
about thirty points off of turnovers for the Pistons, the
majority of those came down to straight up mistake making
or like and ones that don't reflect as points off
of turnovers. Bad shots, these bad pull up threes that
ended up leading in buckets the other way. Just a
(21:21):
lot of like really poor process from Lebron and Luca
that has helped a night offense going the other way
for the Pistons and for other teams over the course
of these last couple of weeks. Like here's the thing,
the poor roster construction was on display again last night,
Like the complete lack of athleticism and shooting in this
eleven game span where the Lakers are five and six,
they're shooting just thirty three percent from three that's the
(21:42):
fourth worst mark in the entire league in that span.
They look completely overmatched athletically. Like I actually thought the
Lakers played hard last night on defense. It wasn't an
effort thing. They're just giving up so much speed all
over the floor. Like Lakers fans were complaining about Marcus
Sasser going from not playing to play awesome, and like,
it's not some weird sort of voodoo. It's not like, oh,
(22:04):
he just gets up for the Lakers. It's because he
has a massive speed advantage. He's faster than everybody, and
so he's comfortable, and like just about every NBA player,
if they're comfortable, is able to go off and put
up big point totals. All of the stuff about the
roster and Rob Polinka and how he's failed to do
his job over the last half decade, all that remains true.
(22:25):
But as a practical matter, this is the roster, probably
for another five weeks. As a practical matter, Austin Reeves
is gonna miss all this time before the All Star
break or the or the trade deadline. The Laker supporting
cast kind of is what it is right now. It's
not gonna magically get better. If you're waiting for Marcus
(22:46):
Smart and Jake Laavia to knock down open threes, I
don't think it's gonna happen. The one thing that actually
can happen between now and February that can help float
the ship until untill reinforcements arrive, until Austin Reeves gets back,
until a trade gets made, is Luca can start making
(23:06):
more shots and turning the ball over less and making
a better effort on defense. Lebron can anchor the defense,
anchor the defensive glass, and provide more consistent production in
support of Luca. Those two things actually can happen. There's
a far better chance of that happening than Marcus Smarter
(23:27):
Jake Laavia shooting fifty percent on catch and shoot threes
and turning this thing around. It has to start with
the guys at the top. That's why I always focus
on those guys. I know Luca can trim some of
these bad step back threes out. I know Luca can
do a better job taking care of the basketball. He
just has to do it. Those guys have to be
better or things could spiral out of control here. So
(23:53):
we got some bad news the other day. I suppose
it's actually good news, but it's bad news seeing nikolay
Yokic go down way that he did. But we got
a report that it was a hyper extension that comes
attached to a bone bruise that's going to require some
time to heal. So it looks like Nikoliokic is going
to be out for at least four weeks, probably until
after the All Star break. This Nugget season has been
(24:15):
completely cursed from the start. Aaron Gordon came out looking
as good as ever to start the season and he
goes down with a hamstring injury on an awkward step
against the Houston Rockets. Christian Brown ends up going down.
Cam Johnson finds his groove with the team after a
rough start, and then he goes down. And now Nikolijokic
a knee hyper extension that's going to hold him out
until after the trade deadline. First of all, nikol Jokic
(24:36):
in the first ten years of his career average seventy
five games played per season, so a remarkable example of
regular availability to his team, for which he deserves a
ton of credit. And it's just a bummer to see
him go down like this. When he was playing the
best basketball of his career, so let's hope for Da
kol Jokic's sake that he makes a speedy recovery and
is able to return sooner than later. Taking a peek
(24:58):
at the situation for the Nugget, they're twenty two to ten,
currently in sole possession of the three seeds, so they
did a good job banking wins despite the injuries to
start the year. They are three games up on the
Phoenix Suns for the first playing spot that seven seed,
and they're five and a half games up on the
Warriors for the eighth seed. I think there's some risk
(25:19):
here that the Nuggets could fall that far seven and
a half games up on Memphis for the nine seed.
Things would have to get exceptionally ugly for them to
slip that far. It's tough to find wins on the schedule,
but like if you really look at it, so there's
twenty four games between now and the and the All
Star Break. Let's say that you know Memphis is gonna
(25:41):
win somewhere around eleven of those games, right, So, like
you really only have to win, you know, five or
six games in the next twenty four in order for
you to avoid slipping all the way to that nine seed.
So I think it's possible that they slip as far
below as far down as eight, but I don't think
they'll slip as far down is nine. Looking at the
schedule now as you try to dig into it, like
(26:04):
I was looking at the schedule specifically looking for like
bankable wins, like games that I feel really good about
their ability to win. And what I'm looking at there
is home games against bad teams, because obviously, without Jokic
you can lose to anyone, but in front of your
home crowd, competing on defense, you have a decent chance
against some of these bad teams to come away with wins.
They have a home game versus Washington in the SPAN,
(26:26):
home game versus Charlotte, home game versus Brooklyn. So if
you pull those three out and again those are not
guaranteed wins, But if you pull those three out and
then you really just have to win like three of
the other nineteen games, three of the other you know,
four of the other nineteen games to be in pretty
solid position to be able to make a late season run.
So I do think that's doable. It just gets really
(26:49):
tough when you start to dig in to what the
lineup data has shown for the Nuggets this year. So
if you look at the lineup data, the one lineup
that they've actually used considerably this year with Jokic, Brown,
Gordon and Johnson all off the floor is a group
that's played one hundred and forty seven possessions. It's Jamal Murray,
Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway, Peyton Watson, and Yonis Valentunis. That
(27:12):
group has a minus thirteen net rating in one hundred
and forty seven possessions if you take all the lineup data,
so every possession the Nuggets have played without Jokis, Brown,
Gordon and Johnson on the floor, the Nuggets are minus
twenty six points per one hundred posessions in four hundred
five possessions. Good amount of garbage time in there, though,
So you can't take that all, you know, as like
(27:33):
just solid, solid data under the circumstances. So the way
you're looking at it is you're basically starting from scratch.
My guess is that they'll start games with a similar
version of that lineup. Instead of Bruce Brown, I think
they'll probably go for Spencer Jones, so it'll probably be
like Jamal Murray and Tim Hardaway with Peyton Watson and
Spencer Jones and Yonas Valentunas. That's my guess as to
(27:54):
how they start games. But really it's gonna come down
to the defensive end. If you're gonna have any chance
to win these games, you got to keep your team
attached and stay close enough to end up in clutch situations.
You can get into clutch situations. Jamal's going to pull
out a few of these games with his shot making,
but you gotta be able to get into some close
games late. The best way to do that is to
play great defense every night. So really look at David
(28:17):
Adelman to emphasize and drill the defensive end of the floor.
In the coming weeks, my guess is that they'll lean
into variance. This team actually does have some defensive talent
that can guard the ball available, Like Bruce Brown can
guard the ball a little bit, right, Jalen Picking and
guard the ball a little bit. Peyton Watson can guard
the ball a little bit. So what I think they'll
do to lean into variance is basically force teams to
(28:39):
make jump shots. I'd expect to see a lot of
deep drop coverage, so Yonis valenciun Is sitting way back,
asking those guards to chase over the top and funnel,
offering a little bit more help from the weak side
and essentially making teams win by hitting pull up jumpers
in the mid range and by knocking down kickout threes
at least, then you can lean into variants where maybe
(28:59):
they're four or five nights over the next twenty four
games where dudes just missshots, and if dudes just misshots,
you have a good chance to win in a close
game late right, I think the big key there is
going to be avoiding transition. So on the offensive end,
with the type of talent that they have available, you
just can't turn the ball over. And you have to
(29:20):
make sure you have your transition defense set up, meaning
good floor balance. If Jamal Murray's driving off the top,
you gotta have guys wheeling up above the break. You
gotta have two guys above the foul line at all times.
Those dudes got to get back. As a team, You've
got to sprint back. You cannot get massacred in the
margins and have a chance to win. Take care of
the basketball, set up your transition defense, lean into variants
(29:42):
with deep drop coverage, make teams score and pick and
roll and score on kickouts. Try to keep things close
with your defense on the other end of the floor
in a close game late I like the idea of
Yonas Malacunas and Jamal Murray being able to pull out
some games with their two man game. Here's the thing,
so before you go big picture, Aaron Gordon and Christian
(30:03):
Brown will probably return at some point in January to help.
You can't risk it in terms of re injury, Like
there's no point in rushing them back, even if it
hurts you in the standings, there's no point in rushing
them back. But if those guys can come back at
some point in January, that obviously gives you additional options.
Aaron Gordon is capable of scaling up offensively. He's been
doing a lot of work out of the post this year.
(30:24):
He can really shoot the ball from three right. Christian
Brown and Aaron Gordon both represent excellent defensive weapons to
give you a better chance to compete on that end
of the four. Those guys coming back will help. Do
not rush them back, though, because here's the thing, this
has the potential to get really ugly for the next month,
and I think there's a good chance that Denver drops
down to like the seventh or eight seed, and maybe
(30:44):
even lower. But I think they'll end up right around
the seventh or eight seed when Nicole Yokic comes back.
But when this team is healthy, they have clearly demonstrated
themselves as a top tier contender in this league. So
even if they are the seventh seed, if they have
all these guys healthy and there are in rhythm when
they get to mid April, they're every bit as dangerous
(31:04):
as any of these other contenders at the top of
the league when they get there. So, if anything, this
injury is actually really bad luck for the top teams
in the West, Houston, Oklahoma City, San Antonio. I think
that'll probably end up being our top three seeds when
it's all said and done. One of them is probably
gonna have to play Denver in the first round. It's
a hell of a reward for a great regular season.
(31:27):
It also feels more likely than not that if they
do climb out of the play in that they end
up in like a four or five seed, and if
they end up there, they could end up facing Oklahoma
City in the second round, and that would be a
brutal second round matchup for a team like Oklahoma City,
who's gonna be the runaway number one overall seed. Right,
So again, it's just about managing the long game here.
You just need to get to April healthy. Seating no
(31:48):
longer matters at this point. You're gonna win a play
in game. You're gonna be just fine if you end
up in that situation. All you have to do here
is avoid an absolute catastrophe over the course of the
next twenty four games. You can do that by winning
your must win home games against Washington, against Brooklyn and Charlotte.
Do I think those were the three if I remember
correctly that they're playing at home, and then lean into
(32:09):
your defense, keep games close, and hopefully Jamal can pull
a couple out. You just need five or six wins
between now in early February to be able to survive
what's happening with the Spurs. First of all, I've seen
a lot of talk surrounding the idea that the Spurs
can only beat the Thunder. That's ridiculous. Even after those
(32:29):
two losses, the Spurs are fifteen to five in their
last twenty games. They were the best team in the
league by record for like six weeks, so they've had
plenty of success beating teams that aren't the Oklahoma City Thunder.
And again that's what Victor Orman ya, I'm missing the
majority of that time, And if you really look at
where they're at in the standings and how much time
Fox has missed and how much time Wenby has missed,
I think it's ridiculous to synthesize their success down to
(32:51):
just beating the Thunder. They've had plenty of wins against
everyone else, including ripping through Denver in LA to get
into the n season Tournament. That said, I do think
these two losses did show some stuff that the Spurs
will have to contend with before they can reach their
ultimate goals. And I want to zoom in on the
Calves game for a minute. First of all, shout out
to the Calves. I thought they just played a really
good defensive game, all sorts of deflections and steals, just
(33:14):
with their activity and rotation. Overall, over the course of
the last four or five games or so with Cleveland,
I've seen a market increase in their intensity and just
kind of starting to recapture a little bit of that,
like just Calves flair that they had last year on
both ends of the floor, And honestly, if it wasn't
for Tyler Colech and Jylen Brunson hitting four straight threes
(33:34):
to end Christmas Day, they'd be four and one in
their last five games. So I'm starting to buy more
Calves stock. I'm starting to feel better about them. I
thought they played a really good game against the Spurs,
so let's get give them some credit for that. But
they deployed an interesting defensive strategy in that game that
I think we'll see more of against San Antonio, and
I think it's something that they're going to deal with
in the postseason when they get there. They basically use
(33:55):
their forwards to guard san Antonio's guards of Dean Wade,
a lot of DeAndre Hunter, a lot of Evan Mobley,
a lot of Nakuon Tomlin guarding Steph Castle, guarding Dylan Harper.
And when they were on those guys, they were going
way back, like sagging way back and then going underneath screens.
(34:18):
The reason why this is really smart is it puts
the guards in a bind. The correct read there if
you're dribbling, if you're Steph Castle and you're drilling at
the three point line and Dean Wade's playing at the
foul line or like, you know, a little bit above
the foul line, like five feet away. The right read,
so to speak, is to take the pull up jumper
because the defender is basically conceding it to you. Right,
you're saying like, I'm gonna let you take that shot.
(34:41):
But at the same time, you don't want to settle
for pull up jumpers every time down the floor because
that can bog down an offense in a different way.
So you need to attempt to drive as much as
you can. But now you're driving the basketball at a
bigger defender who's basically backpedaling and waiting for you to
drive into him. And so as a result, they don't
(35:01):
need to offer as much help because they're containing the
ball through sagging off with these bigger forwards, and so
the spot up opportunities aren't there, the kickouts aren't there,
and it really bogged down San Antonio's offense. They generated
just nineteen spot up opportunities against Cleveland. That was their
lowest total in a game since opening night against Dallas.
(35:22):
They average as a team thirty spot up opportunities per game,
seventh most in the NBA. They got just nineteen against
the Calves because they weren't having to offer as much
help on drives because those bigger forwards were sagging, going under,
basically waiting for those dudes to drive right into their chest.
This is the thing that stands in their way. And
(35:45):
kind of this, you know, in a lot of ways,
it kind of follows a similar and familiar pathway. We've
seen this before, the young, interesting team that rises into
championship contention. How does it go? You flash dynamic upside
in this case, the ability of all your guards drive
to basketball, and then the league responds by identifying what
(36:06):
your weakness is and essentially forcing you to do something
about it. We will see this. I think we'll even
see more aggressive versions of it where it's not just
bigger forwards but also centers. They ended up deploying Jared
Allen a lot on Wemby and did a very nice job.
But like you're gonna see centers guard Steph Castle, You're
gonna see forwards guard Wenby. You're gonna see all sorts
(36:29):
of janky kind of matchups moved around. Try to make
the Spurs uncomfortable. The question is how does san Antonio
counter this? So we all agree it doesn't make a
ton of sense to just keep driving at the sagging
forward and it doesn't make a ton of sense to
just shoot a bunch of pull up threes, right, So
how do you find ways to generate openings for them
(36:51):
with the way they're being guarded? Now, there's two ways
to look at this one. In the big picture, Harper
and Castle got to improve his pull up jump shooters.
You can't get away with that sort of coverage against
the best guards in the league because they all shoot
too well. Who are the best guards in the league,
Shaye Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, Steph Curry, all these guys.
You can't do that with them because they're all elite
(37:11):
jump shooters. Harper and Castle will have to improve there
in order to make this kind of cover jobs sleep.
But again there's the practical matter. The practical matter of
this is how they are right now, Here's how they're
going to be guarded this season. What do they do
to confront this issue within this season? First of all,
this is where having Deer and Fox as a luxury.
(37:33):
He was out for the Utah Jazz game with an
adductor injury, and he didn't play well in the Cavs game.
I don't know how much of that was the adductor injury.
He didn't shoot the ball well, just had kind of
a bad night, right. But the beauty of having that
kind of depth at the guard spot is you can
play through Fox. Now if you're using Steph Castle and
Dylan Harper as places for you to ditch your forwards
(37:54):
to sag off, you can use those guys as screeners,
get him screening for deer and force the guard or
the forward who is guarding Steph Castle or the ford
who is guarding Dylan Harper to make a decision. Am
I helping? If I'm helping, then Steph's gonna slip out
of it and he's gonna have an easy driving lane.
(38:15):
Are we switching? Well? Now, Steph's gonna have a better
matchup to drive, and dearon Fox will have a better
matchup to drive. Right, Like, they're gonna have to be
more deliberate about making those forwards make decisions defensively so
that they can find better opportunities to drive. The second
piece of it, And I would argue that This kind
of is more or less the same concept. But what
(38:36):
do forwards and biggs struggle to do. They struggle to
navigate screens, So put them through as many screens as possible.
When Steph is handling the ball, runs some three man
action so he can't just go underneath, but they have
to work some sort of complicated switch where maybe somebody
gets botched and left open, or maybe Steph ends up
(38:56):
on the other side of the screen against the defender
that he's more capable of pass. But you know, the
Spurs have gotten away with a lot of simple offense
this year because of how good their guards are at
driving the basketball. So they've had a lot of early
offense ISOs off the wing or that little flare screen
from Luke Cornett off the top where they just quick
drive off of it. There's been a lot of that
kind of stuff that they've been able to get away with.
(39:17):
I think they're gonna have to get more creative to
find ways to generate offense when teams really zero in
on their weaknesses. And again, my thing is, if you're
going to defend these quick guards with these bigger forwards,
the best thing you can do is get them involved
in as much screening action as possible, both them as
the screener, whether it's for Wemby or s Forerdier and Fox,
or get multiple screeners involved when they have the ball
(39:40):
so that they can't just easily go underneath the screen
and meet you on the other side and kind of
take away that advantage. The good news is there's a
lot of time between now in mid April to figure
this stuff out. But they're going to have to figure
it out because this is going to be how teams
defend It's copycat league. It was only a matter of time.
We've seen Steph Castle and Dylan Harper just bully these
(40:02):
smaller guards all around the league, especially Oklahoma cities. So like,
we're going to see teams that have the types of
Ford personnel to do this, deploy their defense in this
way to try to make the Spurs uncomfortable and they're
just gonna have to find a way to counter it
at some point. All right, guys, It's all I have
for today is always a sincerely appreciate you guys for
supporting us and supporting the show. I'm recording with Sam
Assini later today for our contender rankings for Friday so
(40:26):
on Friday, everyone enjoy New Year's Day. I hope you
get some time to relax with your friends and family.
We will be back on Friday morning with contender rankings.
I will see you guys. Donnay
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