NBA title CONTENDER RANKINGS: How Thunder, Nuggets, Rockets, Spurs, Knicks, Lakers, Warriors rank

Jason gives his latest NBA contender rankings.

All lines presented by Hard Rock Bet. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. All right, well, good to him tonight here
at the Volume Heavy Friday. Everybody, hope all you guys
had an incredible week. We are getting into our contender

(00:21):
rankings today, as promised once a month, I want to
kind of circle back to our teams that are currently
in the mix for the championship in the NBA. Sometimes
we'll have a guest, sometimes we won't. I was gonna
have Sam Vasinia today. He's feeling a lot under the weather,
So we're gonna have Kevin O'Connor to come on in
our early February contender rankings, and then I'm gonna have
Sam come back on in early March for contender rankings. Then,

(00:45):
but as we head into the new year, I wanted
to dig into our top three tiers. There's been a
lot of change since our last contender rankings. Some teams
moved off the second tier, some teams moved onto the
second tier. Whether or not I was gonna put Okac
in their own tier, all that we're gonna get into today.
You guys know the joke before we get started. Subscribe

(01:05):
to Oops Tonight YouTube channel like this video and if
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We got two on our mail bags later on throughout
the season. All right, let's talk some basketball. So at
this point, I think there are eleven teams that have

(01:27):
at least some slight pathway to compete for a championship.
I have three teams in the top tier. These are
all teams that I think have a real, legitimate, massive
shot to win the trophy this year. These are the
teams that, like every day they're sitting in the locker room,
they're like, we can do this. We're on a mission

(01:48):
to do this. I have four teams in the second tier.
These are teams that I think have a real championship ceiling,
but they have some pretty glaring flaws, require a mix
of maybe some favorable matchups, maybe some internal things going
their way. These are locker rooms where they're gonna have
nights where they have some doubts in the locker room

(02:10):
about whether or not they could reach that goal. But
I do truly believe that ceiling is there, and they've
demonstrated that ceiling within this season. Then I have four
teams in the third tier. These are teams that I
think are well below the level of a traditional contender
and that have not flashed the upside of a championship

(02:31):
contender yet this season, but they have some kind of
internal upside that at least makes you consider them a
long shot. To be clear, I view all four of
these teams is pretty far below the top seven. So
I really only think there's seven teams that have like
a good shot to win the title. But there's these
additional four that I want to get into that I

(02:53):
think at least have that potential upside, that very very
small window of opportunity that makes it a You can't
completely knock them off that list. So let's start there.
We're gonna rank all eleven teams today. For all intents
and purposes, there's only seven that I think can win
the title, but we're gonna go through all eleven. We're
gonna work backwards, starting with number eleven, the Golden State Warriors.

(03:14):
They keep dropping games in particularly painful fashion, losing a
heartbreaker to the Raptors the other night where they led
by seven with less than two minutes left, ended up
losing by fourteen. In overtime, a couple of nice wins
after that to Brooklyn and Charlotte. I'm actually recording this
on New Year's Eve and Golden State played at eleven
am local here in Denver today. Is just kind of
part of the weird New Year's Eve's schedule. But I

(03:37):
got a couple of wins after that to get back
to two games above five hundred. They're kind of like
the opposite of the Lakers in that I think they're
better than their record because of clutch basketball, like the
Lakers are twenty and eleven because they're ten to zero
clutch games. You know, a couple of those go a
different direction. Austin Reeves misses a floater, somebody misses a
shot over there, someone makes a shot over here. They
could be sitting, you know, closer to where Phoenix is

(03:59):
in the standings right. Similarly, the Warriors have been hovering
right around five hundred in large part because they've lost
eleven clutch games this year. It's been a combination of issues.
Their clutch defense has been terrible. They're about a one
to twenty seven clutch defensive rating, and they've had a
very high turnover rate in crunch time. They're turning the
ball over on over fifteen percent of their possessions in
crunch time, they've actually scored the ball pretty well when

(04:21):
they get to those spots. I may be completely delusional here,
but I still think this is a good basketball team,
and they have a trade to make with Jonathan kaminga
so I think it's very possible that this team goes
on a run in the second half of the season.
It's one thing that like, if what I believe about
this team is true, I believe they will finish the
season a lot better than just a five hundred basketball team.
I think they'll be substantially above five hundred at some

(04:44):
point later on in the season. Nobody, not even Warriors fans,
are going to view this team as some sort of
substantial title threat. But when you factor in Steph Curry,
the continuity this team has, Steve Kerr is a playoff coach,
the potential of returning to kaminga trade at least that
long shot title threat that's going to cause them to
register on a list like this, even if I don't

(05:06):
view them as as substantial as those top seven teams,
especially in a Western conference where even Oklahoma City has
shown some matchup vulnerability this year. The stat you cling
to if you're a Warriors fan. They have a plus
six net rating when Steph, Jimmy and Draymond are all
on the floor together, a one to twenty one offensive
rating with that group, and you feel like they can
play much better than they have on defense. That's what

(05:27):
you're clinging to if you're a Warriors fan. Number ten
the Los Angeles Lakers. For the first time in the
Luca Era, I've dropped them off of the second tier
of contenders. I was tempted to flip them in the
Warriors last week. There was a moment there where I
was like, Man, are even the Warriors better? But even
with all the Warriors, with all the Lakers' flaws, excuse me.
I do think they're just a touch better than the

(05:47):
Warriors when they're fully healthy. But I have removed them
from the second tier for two reasons. One, their roster
is just completely overmatched in the modern NBA from a
shooting and athleticism standpoint. Incredibly slow and unathletic, and they're
incapable of knocking down open, catch and shoot threes. In
the Pistons game, for example, how many times did you

(06:08):
see Jake Gravy or Marcus Smarten of wide open and
the guys just can't hit the shots. As a team,
they're making seven point five catch and shoot threes per game,
which is the worst in the entire league. For some perspective,
they are nineteen NBA teams that average at least ten
made catch and shoot threes per game. The Lakers are
getting seven point five, worst in the entire league. So

(06:29):
every night they're operating with extreme deficits and two of
the most important aspects of modern NBA basketball being able
to run around and sprint and cover ground as athletes
and the ability to knock down open catch and shoot threes. Two.
For the Lakers to compete with the best teams in
the league, they needed Luca to be at the level
of the top players in the league, and he just

(06:50):
hasn't been. His scoring volume is nothing to just ignore,
but he's the most mistake prone superstar in the league
by a mile. The amount of missed shots and turn
off he has relative to his peers is jaw dropping.
This is a crazy stat from the Pistons game. The
Pistons scored nineteen points directly off of Luca turnovers. And

(07:11):
missed threes in transition. So like Luca misses a step
back three up top, Jalen Duran just runs right past him,
gets a dunk out the other end. Off of the
miss throw a pick six on the left. Marcus Sasser
saves it and bounds to Isaiah Stewart under the basket
for a dunk. That sort of thing over and over again.
Nineteen points in one single game directly off of Luca

(07:33):
turnovers and misstep back threes. So like when you really
dig into it, it's like, yeah, you had thirty and eleven.
His counting stats continue to be incredible, but he just
misses so many shots and he turns the ball over
so much that it undercuts his success. And to put
to put it very simply, with this version of Luka Doncic,
the Lakers have no shot to win the title, but

(07:54):
you can't completely count them out because there's always that
threat that Luca will return to form, that Lebron will
reach a top fifteen level before the end of the season,
that Austin Reeves gets back and continues to kick ass,
that the team hits on a trade and they go
on a run. Right, That's why they're on this list,
but I view that now as so much of an
extreme long shot that I've removed them from that second

(08:14):
tier of contenders for the first time since the Luka
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(10:23):
The stat you cling to of your Calves fan is
that the Calves have played just one hundred and sixty
one possessions this year with Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley,
and Jared Allen all on the floor together. In those minutes,
they're plus twenty four per one hundred possessions, but only
one hundred and sixty one possessions because of how devastated
they've been by injuries. With those groups, by the way,
they've been awesome on both ends of the floor, So

(10:44):
you can explain the majority of their issues just by
pointing to injuries. I'd be quick to I'd be I
wouldn't be too quick, excuse me to blame it all
on injuries, because there are some recurring themes, particularly with
the defensive end, and with their rebounding and their overall physicality.
It's just the most physical team in the world really
in any of their position groups, which I don't love
with the playoff team, But the case for Cleveland is

(11:06):
at in a flawed Eastern Conference. They could get healthy,
and if they got healthy, they're every bit as good
as those top teams in the conference. I actually really
like what I've seen from them the last couple of weeks.
They easily could have won that knixt game on Christmas
Day if it wasn't for some super hot shooting from
Tyler Coolek and Jalen Bronson down the stretch. The win
in San Antonio was super impressive on both ends of
the floor. I do think the Cavs are getting real momentum.

(11:28):
I think they're about to make their run on the standing,
like in the standings and go from being, you know,
six to seven playin type of team to something up
closer to the top. I think They're about to make
that run. The main reason I'm keeping them down in
the third tier is one I'm just not sure we're
ever going to get to see the fully healthy version
of this team. Ever seeing every single season Darius Garland
does seem to get banged up. It always does seem

(11:49):
like one of their guys is dealing with something that
has him out of the lineup, and at a certain
point that's just kind of who you are. And then
two that lack of physicality and all their position groups.
I think it makes some really high risk for upset
in a playoff series, and it's why I'm not quite
as high on them as like a second tier contender,
for example, even though I can admit that their injuries

(12:09):
have held them back in the standings. Number eight the
Boston Celtics. The case for this team is really simple.
Most of their statistical markers are excellent. They're fourth in offense,
their fourth and net rating. They're positive in all the
margin stats. They outscore teams and points off of turnovers,
they outscore teams and second chance points. They outscore teams
in fast break points, right, so they're winning on the margins.

(12:29):
They just have this glaring personnel weakness in the front court,
which you saw in their most recent loss against the Blazers.
Were once again they're picking on their bigs and drop coverage,
and then as soon as they go away from their
bigs and go small, you're seeing them get bullied, whether
it's you know, Denny Avdia going at Peyton Pritchard, or
it's you know Donavan Cleland Clington just burying hoo Go
Gonzales underneath the basket like there's a size and athleticism

(12:52):
deficit in that front court that's just really tough for
them to overcome at this point. So in theory, you
add Jason Tatum, you hit on trade for some front
court depth, Suddenly this looks like a very dangerous team. Right,
Those are all long shots though we've basically never seen
a player come back from an achilles tear in less
than a year and lead a team through a full

(13:13):
playoff run. All trades are hard to make, so you know,
like it's when you could talk about matching salary, dealing
with the aprons, you know, having enough roster spots to
take in players. Like, there's so many different things that
make trades hard to make. So I do view it
as an extreme long shot that they actually accomplish what
they need to accomplish to compete in the East. But

(13:34):
the shot is there in a way that none of
us could have predicted before the season. So if you're
a Celtics fan, you gotta be absolutely thrilled with where
you're at. You're twenty and twelve, Jalen Brown as like
the leading man on a real team for the first
time in his life, Like that has been a smashing success.
He's been incredible, so much so that I mean I've

(13:54):
seen Celtics fans arguing whether or not it's his team
or Tatum's team when he comes back, and I think
those are the version of first world problems, Like it's
awesome that you have both. And I don't know why.
I've seen this with Lakers fans too, where it's like, oh,
this is Lebronz team or this is Lucas team. It's like,
all that is really dumb to me, Like you need
lots of good basketball players, like you just got to
figure out how to co exist, which we all know
that Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum can. So I think

(14:16):
Jalen Brown being awesome is nothing but good for the Celtics. Again,
there's just so much that has to go right for
them to be able to make their run. But I'm
registering them as a shot to win the title in
a way I didn't think was possible before the season.
So you gotta be thrilled if you're a Celtics fan.
All right, let's get into our second tier. Remember the
second tier. These are teams that I think when they're

(14:38):
in the locker room, they're gonna have nights where they're like,
oh shit, we're gonna win this thing. Now they're flawed.
They're gonna have nights where they look bad, and you go, man,
this one flaw we have, we might not be able
to overcome that. Right, Like, these teams are not perfect,
but they are another level above the teams I just listed.
In terms of checking boxes that you need to check
to compete for a title, number seve than the Detroit Pistons.

(15:03):
I think they're a very dangerous playoff team because of
their physicality at every position group, from their guards to
their bigger wings to their centers. They're super athletic and
strong all over the floor. They get up into the
basketball and the perimeter, they force turnovers, They generate a
ton of margin and transition and on the offensive glass.
I was actually talking about this the other day with

(15:23):
respect to the Lakers with my buddy Damn Rangula is
a big Lakers fan, and he was making the point
that like last year's playoffs were indicative of the fact
that margins actually matter a lot more than they used to.
It used to be that that was more of a
regular season thing, and then you get to the playoffs
and it's like your half court offense versus my half
court offense. Let's see who can score in the slowdown basketball.

(15:45):
But the point that Demons trying to make was basically,
like we've seen these teams essentially demonstrate that it's the opposite.
You want to avoid the half court as much as
possible and the more you can get out and transition
the better, which has always been a concept. It's just
been struggle. It's been a struggle to get that sort
of thing to translate to the postseason in the past.
Not last year. We saw Oklahoma City in Indiana win

(16:08):
series and Oklahoma City win a title. Indiana come very
close by winning on the margins. It just helps to
be able to avoid the half court as much as
possible when you have a defense that can get you
out and transition a lot. If you have the ability
to turn half court misses into points on the offensive glass,
it just buys you a ton of margin for air

(16:29):
in that half court basketball department. Detroit's a perfect example
of that. Their half court offense can slow down. Sometimes,
kid can go cold from the perimeter, you can miss
some easy shots, sometimes you can have some turnover issues.
They don't really have a reliable secondary option, right, So
they can go cold from time to time, but they
get out and transition off of their defense and force
a lot of turnovers and score off of those turnovers.

(16:50):
And they turn a lot of their misses into points
on the offensive glass, so they have that margin for air.
I have them at the bottom of this tier because
they're kind of light on that aggregate offensive skill piece.
Caid has an enormous amount offensive responsibility on this team.
But I think this roster is absolutely capable of winning
an NBA championship. They have one of the special offensive

(17:12):
engines in the NBA in the form of Caid. They
have other guys who can break the defense down with
dribble penetration. They're an elite defense and rebounding team, and
they win on the margins. That's a lot of checking boxes.
And if they hit on a trade at this deadline,
which I believe they will side note and this is again,
this is just for fun everybody, So everybody chill out
and have some fun for a second. I think Detroit

(17:34):
is actually my favorite Lebron trade destination. It was thrown out.
We were just hanging out after the stream on Lakers Collective.
Actually this morning, and Trevor was just joking about it,
and he was like, what about Detroit? Because I was saying, like,
is there a team out there that can like really
use a four but also allow him to not necessarily

(17:55):
play super hard on defense and on the glass during
the regular season. And Trevor was like, well, what about Detroit?
And then I started to look at it and I
was like, this actually makes a lot of sense. Now,
for the record, I don't think Lebron will get traded.
This isn't even my favorite Pistons trade. My favorite Pistons
trade is still Michael Porter Junior. But just for fun,
I wanted to dig into this idea so the way
it would look, so it be something about it'd be

(18:17):
something like Lebron and Bronni for Tobias Harris, another big
expiring so the Lakers don't have to worry about taking
too much long term salary on Karris Lavert, Javonte Green,
and Marcus Sasser. So for the Pistons, they would get
a legit number two for kid, who could be like
a secondary offensive engine off of Kate Cunningham to make

(18:38):
his life easier in that department, a massive upgrade of
power forward, he's just a better player than Tobias Harris.
And then the Pistons have the personnel to actually put
up with Lebron coasting in the regular season. They've got
athletes all around him, and they have such a depth
of athletes that they you know, they could lose a
Javonte Green and a Karis Lavert, but Lebron kind of
takes that Karis Lavert role of like being kind of

(18:59):
a secondary ball handler. But you still have plenty of
athleticism off the bench. You still have Jaden Ivy, you
still have Ron Holland it doesn't dig into the identity
of the team. Obviously, Javontae Green's been a big part
of it. You'd essentially because Marcus Sasser has been more
or less out of their rotation when Krislvert is healthy.
So you're essentially turning Javonte Green and Tobias Harris and

(19:21):
Kroslvert into Lebron James. That's a pretty substantial upgrade there.
And then for the Lakers, they get a bunch of athletes.
You know how much Lakers could use a guy like
Jamonte Green or a Marcus Sasser that can guard the
ball and get some dribble penetration for them or Caroselvert,
you know that kind of thing. So it was just
I was just looking at that. I was like, oh,
that's a lot of fun. Again, not gonna happen. Not
even my favorite Pistons trade. I think Michael Porter Junior

(19:41):
still makes the most sense. The downside of making a
move for Lebron is you would not have a long
term solution. Michael Porter Junior could be a guy that's
your power forward for three four years, right, So that's
why he's still my favorite option. But it just was
funny because it got pitched to me this morning and
I was like, you know what, like if like if
Lebron was on Pistons right now for Tobias and Marcus

(20:03):
Asser and Karis Lavert in Javonte Green, do the Pistons
immediately become the runaway favorite in the Eastern Conference? They
probably become the runaway favorite in the Eastern Conference like
overnight with a move like that. So it's just fun.
It's just fun to think about Number six, the Minnesota Timberwolves.
All season long, Minnesota has been a frustrating team to watch.

(20:24):
They're currently getting their butts kicked right now. On the
road in Atlanta, inconsistent effort and energy on defense, late
game struggles that have plagued them for years. But I
always like sustain this belief that they have the ability
to ratchet up their athleticism and physicality to overwhelm the
best teams in the league when they get to the postseason.
And I do think we've seen enough of that in

(20:46):
the last couple of weeks to justify that upside. Again.
I was talking about that as kind of one of
the characteristics I'm looking at in this tier is like,
have you demonstrated at any point this season that you
are capable of winning a chat aampionship? Right? And like
so for Detroit, for example, they're literally the best team
in the Eastern Conference by record, right, and they have

(21:06):
a bunch of wins over five hundred of better teams. Like,
there's every reason in the world for the Pistons to
sit in their locker room and be like, we can
do this. Right. For Minnesota, it was that win over
Oklahoma City. That win demonstrated that upside. I'm actually even
higher on Minnesota than I was to start the season
because of some of the improvements I've seen on offense,
especially Anthony Edwards and just how much more methodical and

(21:29):
patient he's been on his drives, as rim finishing as skyrocketed.
Jaden McDaniel's becoming a forty percent three point shooter. He's
been much more polished offensively ever since the playoffs last year.
I think that's a real leap from him. They have
that combination that I think you need in order to
compete with the team like Oklahoma City, but just in
general to be a problem in the postseason. And that's
a combination of size and athletic advantages, but also guys

(21:52):
that can dribble and create shots. They've got a bunch
of dudes between Anthony Edwards and Julius Randall and Nasried,
They've got a bunch of dude dudes that can break
the defense down with their athletic advantages, and then as
a team, they can all shoot the ball really well.
Off of that. I think it's a combination that causes
a lot of problems for teams in the postseason. Their
personality is frustrating. They do not bring the appropriate level

(22:15):
of focus and attention to detail on defense often enough.
They're gonna have frustrating stretches where they look bad. They're
kind of like the Philadelphia Eagles of the NBA, or
if you catch them on the wrong night, you think
they're the worst team in the league. But like every
year that they are again you know, late in the postseason,
because they're just bigger and stronger and faster than everybody.
And that's kind of how I see Minnesota right now.

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Tennessee or Virginia number five, the New York Knicks. In

(24:11):
Jalen Brunson's last ten games and again, I'm recording this
on on New Year's Eve, so I'm going to miss
a game between now and then. In Jaln Brunson's last
ten games, he's averaging thirty three points per game on
sixty two percentury shooting with just one point seven turnovers
per game. For the season, he's averaging a career high
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(24:34):
scoring volume and efficiency we've seen Jalen Brunson operating at
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That's the type of territory that Jalen Brunson has entered into.
With the level of play he's been at for the

(24:55):
last month, I think he's making that leap to the
top tier of superstars. I talked about this on the
show the other day, but I think he's been even
better than Lukea's been over the last month. It's just
one of many things about the Knicks that feels different
to me this year. Brunson's playing the best basketball of
his career and has arguably been a top tier superstar
this season. McHale, og and Josh Hart, all three of

(25:17):
them have been phenomenal on both ends of the floor.
All three of them have been better this year than
they were last year. McHale's shooting the ball better and
guarding better. Josh Hart shooting the ball better just in general,
has been a better offensive threat than he was in
years past. O Jananobi's been devastating two way all over
the floor this year. Karl Anthony Town struggled to start
the year, but he's been way more efficient in the
last few weeks, and the team has found a lot

(25:39):
of valuable depth. And like a gunner like Jordan Clarkson
that's not particularly efficient, but that can come in and
bring a spark of energy and hit a couple shots
and change a game like he did on Christmas Day.
Tyler Kolek and just the job he's done as a
backup guard who can also scale up as a scorer
when he needs to. Landrew Shaman and his Moviet shooting
before he got hurt. Obviously, Mitchell Robinson's been healthy and
available this year. One thing is just different. The issues

(26:02):
with kat on defense. They're still real and they're gonna
have to overcome those to get to where they want
to go. But I just think the Knicks might be
so much better across the board that they can overcome
it this time around. Their offense is four and a
half points better perm one hundred possessions than it was
last year. That down the roster improvement from certain guys,
the emphasis on early dribble penetration from Mike Brown, that's

(26:25):
generating the types of higher quality catch and shoot looks
than they got last year. All of it is amounting
to a better basketball team. I don't think they have
the two way ceiling that some of the teams above
them on this list have, But this, to me is
by far the most optimistic I've been about the Knicks
in the Brunson era. I think they have a real
shot to win it all. Number four the San Antonio Spurs.

(26:50):
Their offense is flawed and it's highly susceptible to cold
spells that have plagued them in the last week and
that's what keeps them off the top tier from now.
For you Spurs fans. In our Wednesday show, I did
a kind of a deep dive into how the Calves
guarded their guards and some of the stuff that they
can do to address that and just what it means
for the future of the Spurs. But this team has
a huge leg up on all the other second and
third tier contender teams in the form of the simple

(27:12):
fact that they have Oklahoma City's number. They're probably the
only team in the league other than Denver that can
like confidently look in the mirror and say, we can
beat these dudes. Denver because they pushed them to seven
last year were the worst team, and San Antonio because
they're three to zero against them this season. Everyone else
it's either theoretical because they don't know, or it's a
massive long shot. I like the Spurs as a playoff

(27:35):
team in general because they check some of those classic boxes,
like they are excellent rim protection team. They can provide
forty eight minutes of just real barrier between dribble drives
in the rim. They also have a depth of perimeter
defenders that can get up into the ball. I've always
loved that bracket of being able to pressure the ball
but also being able to protect the rim, and then
on the offensive end, in addition to Wenby, they have

(27:56):
a depth of dribble drive creation that can break the
defense down at the point of attack over and over again,
a bunch of guys that can beat their man off
the dribble. For all this talk about their shooting before
the season, including from people like myself, they've been firmly
in the middle of the pack as a catch and
shoot team this year. Now, one of the things we saw,
especially in the Cleveland game, is that they put bigs

(28:18):
like bigger forwards on Steph Castle and on Dylan Harper
and really sagged off and went underneath screens. And there's
a lot of stuff that they're gonna have to work
out schematically to try to keep things flowing for them
on offense when they run into that. I think they're
even gonna see more exaggerated versions of that, where they
put centers on Steph Castle things along those lines. There's
stuff that they're gonna have to figure out. But overall,
I can't believe after how low I was on this

(28:40):
team coming into the season and I have them at
fourth of my contender rankings. They're an awesome basketball team.
Last note, I can't wait to watch Wemby in his
first playoff series. I think he's gonna be able to
ratchet things up defensively in a way that is devastating
to opposing offenses. It's gonna be fun to watch. Number
three the Houston Rockets. It's so funny because the talk

(29:01):
before the season was that they needed a point guard.
That was in on that idea too, not so much
that they needed a point guard in the most traditional
sense of the word, but just that they needed another
dribble shot creator, a guy that can run, pick and roll,
a guy that could do what Fred van Vliet did right.
But I'm completely off that idea now. I don't think
they need a point guard at all. I think, you know,
there was a lot of that talk that resurfaced, especially
after their recent slide a couple weeks ago where they

(29:22):
dropped a few games. I don't think the Rockets have
issues on offense breaking the defense down. Kevin Durant and
Alburn Shangoun are drawing multiple defenders constantly. Ree Sheppard is
blossomed way sooner than I expected into a tertiary ball handler.
He's getting one point zero eight points per ball screen
including passes this year on over two hundred reps. He's
done great work in ball screens as a shot maker

(29:44):
and as a playmaker. He's a legit option for them there.
They just need to figure out how to capitalize on
the four on threes. Like think of it in a
real basic way like this, you have a point guard.
What's a point guard's job to find out where to
enter the offense. Okay, we want to get the ball
to KD. Okay, we're gonna throw the ball to KD.
We're gonna run this set. We're gonna get the ball
to KD on the block. Well, then the double team comes,
and when the double team comes, the exact same fucking

(30:05):
problem happens that we were talking about before the point
guard enters the equation where Kd's dribbling the ball of
the floor and he's picking up a double team right away.
The doubles are the doubles. KD and Shangun are gonna
draw the doubles. The team needs to figure out how
to more quickly and efficiently break down those four and
threes into dunks in wide open threes. It's just about

(30:26):
like to me, like instead of getting a point guard,
they just need that fifth guy, the guy who can
go next to kd Jabari, Shangun and Thompson and be
the combination of defense and shot making that they need,
and I think they found it. I think Tari Easton
could be a good option there. I still think Dorian
Finney Smith, as he continues to get his legs underneath them,
will be an option for them there. I think that
sort of wing do everything wing is more important as

(30:48):
a fifth guy in that lineup than bringing like, you know,
the a vintage like get everyone to their spots kind
of point guard. I think the entire purpose of offense
is to break the defense down and to get quality shots.
The Rockets can do that have to stop turning the
ball over and like, frankly, the large sample data on
their offense is absurd. Their offense is awesome. They It's
like when you look at their clutch games that they've lost,

(31:09):
it actually has been their defense that's been a problem.
And in many cases it's because you know, they emy
Udoka went with the Steven Adams or he went with
the Reed Shepherd, and I think now settling in on
Tari Eastan is that fifth guy is gonna kind of
settle down some of their late game stuff, and they're
gonna need reps, like they're gonna need a lot of
reps between now and the end of the season to
get better at capitalizing on those four on threes. You know,

(31:32):
it's been interesting as I look back zooming out, like
they're not as good defensively as we thought they'd be,
in large part because they play a lot of these
bigger bodies that are pretty slow footed, so they can
be a little susceptible to speed. They're not as good
defensive rebounding as you would expect for that exact same reason.
Long rebounds quicker bodies can get to them. But they're
still pretty good on defense. They're still pretty solid as

(31:53):
a defensive rebounding team. They're the best overall rebounding team
in the mile because they like they're just this transcendently
great offensive abounding team, and they's so much better on
offense than any of us thought they could be thanks
to the fact that Kevin rant Alpurnshangun are breaking the
defense over and over again bringing that second defender, and
then they've had a lot of improved spot up shooting
down the roster. Number two Denver Nuggets soon to be

(32:19):
playing team Denver Nuggets as a result of the first
significant injury in Nikole Jokic's career. I still remain super
high on this team and I view them as the
biggest threat to win the title behind Oklahoma City. Everything
I expected about this team this summer ended up coming
to fruition. Like Nikole Jokich is still the best player
in the world by a clearly discernible margin. Jamal Murray

(32:40):
was motivated by the roster moves and some of his
shortcomings in the last couple seasons to show up the
training camp in shape. He's about to make his first
All Star team. He's been incredible. Aaron Gordon looked a
fantastic before he got hurt. I talked about how the
depth would make them more able to succeed when Yokic
is off the floor. That was clearly bearing out in
the numbers before all these injuries hit. And Cam Johnson

(33:01):
improved their overall foot speed on defense in their best lineups,
and he was really starting to click on offense before
his injury. I get that it's a pessimistic time to
be a Nugget fan. You have four starters down with
substantial lower body injuries. That's brutal. The next month of
Nuggets basketball is going to behore to watch. But none
of these injuries are season threatening. Guys are gonna come back,

(33:24):
and when they are healthy, they have the best combination
of top end firepower, depth of talent, experience, continuity, and
real matchup advantages that they need to beat anybody in
the West. I still think they have a fantastic chance
to win the title this year. They just need to
make sure that they're healthy when they get to early April.

(33:45):
Number one the Oklahoma City Thunder. I was tempted a
few weeks ago to put them in a tier by
themselves at the top of the league, but then they
dropped four out of their six games in that stretched
against Minnesota and Oklahoma City, and a lot of their
issues from the pass rows to the surface like they
can still get out rebounded, generally kind of overwhelmed by
teams that have a lot of perimeter size. They can

(34:06):
still get shaky with their catch and shoot shooting, especially
when they play athletic teams that can throw good closeouts
they're shooting plummets when they face closeouts, and then after
Shake Gildes Alexander, their ball handling gets just a little shaky.
Compared to some of the other top teams, I think
AJ Mitchell and J dub are really good and better
options than most teams in the league. But there are
some other teams towards the top of this list that

(34:28):
have some better secondary options than what Oklahoma City has
right now. Who knows, maybe J Doub will play better
over the course of the season, but it's just based
on what we've seen so far. That said, I still
have seen plenty this year this year in terms of
improvement with guys like Shay who's gone up a level
across the board in a lot of ways, with Chet
who's gone up a level across the board in a

(34:48):
lot of ways. The overall jump shooting of the team.
You know, in a large sample they've actually been shooting plenty. Well,
it's just been again these specific matchups and these specific
types of shots that they've been missing. I still think
that that makes them a clear favorite to win the
title this season. The Timberwolves in the Thunder demonstrated that
they're not some sort of unbeatable juggernaut or anything like that.
But they are the best team in the NBA, and

(35:11):
I do think they have the most complete team to
survive four playoff rounds in hoist the trophy this year.
All right, guys, that's all I have for today is
always a sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us and
supporting the show. We'll be back on Monday for our
usual Power Rankings episode. I hope everybody had a happy
New Year and I'll see you guys on Monday.