May 2, 2025 • 50 mins
The nerds give their predictions for the upcoming Eastern Conference semifinals series, breaking down whether Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and the New York Knicks have any chance against Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics. Then, they discuss how much of a threat Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers’ potent offense can pose to Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and the Cleveland Cavaliers.
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00:00:23 - Celtics-Knicks
00:25:11 - Cavaliers-Pacers
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. No, Oh my god, how could he do that?
Speaker 2 (00:14):
By what Charles Darwin?
Speaker 3 (00:20):
The nerves is where it's at.
Speaker 4 (00:23):
Welcome everybody back into Nerd Sash. As always, I'm Carson
Bremer and alongside me is Logan Camden, and today we
are going to be previewing both Eastern Conference semi final
series which are now set in stone. After the New
York Knicks knocked out the Pistons last night, so they
are now set to face the Boston Celtics. As we
(00:45):
look at this matchup, Logan, how do you think the
Knicks will have to approach dealing with this Celtics offense
that is so potent and do they have any chance
of slowing them down?
Speaker 1 (00:58):
The regular season track record would suggest that this team doesn't.
Boston in their matchups in the regular season against the
Knicks this year put up an offensive rating of one
thirty two point seven. And one of the biggest keys
and things that I'm looking at for the Knicks in
this series to come out on top or to just
have a chance of upsetting the Boston Celtics is if
(01:20):
the Knicks defense can overcome the two glaring defensive liabilities.
Carson and I have talked about this ad nauseum when
we bring up the Knicks throughout the regular season and
into the playoffs, and it has been the reason why
we couldn't consider the Knicks to be like real deal
title contenders is just the consistency and the ceiling of
(01:40):
this defense. It's really hard to build a great team
defense around guys like Jalen Brunston and Karl Anthony Towns
when they're starting as a point guard, when he is
your point of attack guy, and then your de facto
rim protector Karl Anthony Towns at the five. And if
there's anything we know about this Celtics offense, it's that
they have two superpowers. It's the volume an efficient three
(02:02):
point shooting, which I think the Knicks can try to mitigate.
But they're also elite mismatch attackers. And so if Jalen
Brown were to get that switch on Jalen Brunson food,
Jason Tatum gets that switch on Jalen Brunson Food, right, anybody,
Brunson's a glaring defensive liability if they make Karl Anthony
Towns defend in space or defend picking rolls like it's
a problem, Like it's really hard to overcome that. So
(02:25):
I think they should play more Mitchell Robinson Carson. I
don't know if that entails like more of a double
big lineup, because I think that you're gonna run into
problems with that too, where both of them are having
to defend in space, where Cat's gonna have to be
more on the perimeter. There's not an easy answer guarding Boston.
Boston likes to force guys to switch, likes to get
(02:45):
those mismatches. They like to spread defenses out and attack
in space, and it's just it's really hard. I think
that ananobe in Bridges can disrupt Tatum and Brown a
little bit. I actually think that they match up pretty
well against their star guards. But to me, it's about
how well Brunson can match up on these mismatches and
(03:07):
how much Kat can defend well in space. But like
I said, I'm gonna try to mitigate that, I think
by trotting out more Mitchell Robinson and trying to play
a little more physically. Man, I just think the Knicks
are gonna have to be more physical. I think they're
gonna have to win on the glass, They're gonna have
to try other things because I think that I don't
really see like the Knicks convincingly slowing down this Boston
(03:28):
offensive attack. I think it's easier said than done, and
I think gets you hope that you try to make
life difficult on their shooters. You hope that christophs Porzingis
has a down series. But there are just personnel limitations
that I think the Knicks are gonna really struggle to
overcome in this matchup.
Speaker 4 (03:43):
I really do not think going double big is the
answer for the New York next in this series. I
just think Boston has way too much shooting and skill
and speed out in space, and if you have two
true centers on the floor, they are going to exploit
that repeatedly. And if they want to exercise and they
have a way better double big look that they can
throw at you with Horford and KP and they'll still
(04:05):
have all of that elite perimeter skill in shooting around them.
So to me, that's not the answer. But the thing is,
there isn't an answer. Like you mentioned, Celtics were four
to zero against the Knicks this year with almost a
one to thirty three offensive rating in a plus seventeen
net rating, Like they absolutely kicked the Knicks ass and
(04:25):
the reason for that is they are incapable of getting
stops in this matchup, like the Celtics offense might as
well have been built in a lab to exploit the
Knicks defensive week points. To be fair, the Celtics offense
is just great in a vacuum, and the Knicks defense
has a couple of clear limitations in a vacuum. But
it's the Celtics' ability to relentlessly target the two guys
(04:49):
you mentioned logan when they ran pick and roll involving
Jalen Brunson this year, Boston generated one point twenty nine
points per possession. That's a one twenty nine offense rating.
In the half court. You talk about how if Tatum
or Brown get Brunson on a switch, then he's cooked.
But even more significant is all of the advantages that
(05:12):
the Knicks can sede trying to prevent those guys from
getting that switch. And when they call up Brunson's man
to set a screen, you can't blitz the ball handler,
especially if it's Jason Tatum because he's so good as
a playmaker, but there's so much shooting around them, and
if it's Derek White screening, and then popping Like, there's
not a much worse shot that you can concede as
(05:33):
a defense than a Derek White open three, So you're
not gonna be able to put two on the ball.
What they're going to resort to for the most part,
because they also feel like they can't switch, is having
Jalen Brunson's show a lot. But that means that the
pull up three is gonna be there for Jason Tatum
a lot. If Brunson shows a little bit too briefly,
or if he stays on the ball for a little
(05:55):
too long, then that pass to the popping guard is
going to be there. And you're talking about an elite
shooter getting a great look from three. So every time
that Brunson is involved in the action, New York is
basically screwed. Like they are just picking their poison and
they both really are bad options whatever they choose to do.
And then when Brunson's just defending the ball handler, like
(06:17):
even if it's just Derek White running pick and roll
with Chris tops porzingis Brunson's screen navigation sucks, he's getting
left in the dust, or because he's a bad screen navigator,
he's trying to go under screens and he's letting up
wide open threes to like a Derek White. You just
cannot have that happening. So they are going to target
Brunson over and over and over again in this series,
(06:39):
and I think they are going to get great shot
after great shot out of it. I would definitely put
Brunson Andrew Holliday over Derek White. We've seen him matched
up with both of them. I just think White is
a more imposing offensive weapon and basically every way as
a shooter, he's more dynamic as a ball handler and
as a playmaker at this point, just more of an
offensive weapon. But you're still not going to be able
(07:01):
to hide Brunson, like They're still going to use Drew
as a screener over and over if they do that,
and all of the same fundamental weaknesses are there for
the next defense, and then you have the Karl Anthony
Towns problem. When Boston involved Cat in pick and roll
this year, they generated one point two to two points
per possession, so still astronomically great offense. What the Knicks
(07:23):
are going to do most likely is have Cat playing
in like a decently high drop. But if Tatum's pull
up three is on, then you're cooked. Like he will
walk into those pull up jumpers over and over again. Plus,
Kat's not a good drop defender, so like, even if
Tatum is trying to get more downhill, Cat's not going
(07:43):
to offer much resistance at the rim. He's not good
moving his feet in space. And since he's gonna be
playing again in not a deep drop but a higher drop,
like there's opportunities for Tatum to blow by him if
he gets a good runway going downhill. He's just not
a good pick and roll defender. And maybe the most
problematic aspect is, like you have cat and drop, Christaps
(08:04):
Porzingis is going to kill you with the pick and
pop game.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
And I mean maybe, I mean he was pretty shot
in first round.
Speaker 4 (08:12):
He was, and the shot was just off. But this
is a much better matchup for him. And unless his
shot is just like freakishly off, this dude was a
forty three point shooter in the regular season. He was
the best picking pop big in basketball. This is a
matchup in which he is going to get phenomenal looks
from beyond the arc. And he destroyed the Knicks last
(08:32):
time they play. And specifically, he's just a nightmare matchup
for Cat, because Kat isn't built to garden space like that.
So if it is the pick and pop game, if
it's KP punishing Cat for overhelping because he's such a
weapon from beyond the arc, if it's him punishing Cat
for not being active enough in transition, giving him a
little too much space, like he is going to get
(08:53):
some great looks from three and I think this should
be a monster KP series Offensively. I understand how much
he struggled last series that was a very different matchup,
and as long as he finds his outside shot, he's
going to get the looks that he needs to kill
the Knicks as well. So I just think everybody is
going to feast offensively in this series. For Boston, and
they just have way too much shooting and it's way
(09:14):
too easy for them to exploit Cat guarding in space.
You talk about Og doing a great job on Jason Tatum,
I think that he does. But if I'm Tatum, I
might not isolate Og once in this entire series, Like
why would I do that? I'm going to call up
Brunson's man, going to call up Kat's man screen over
and over, or you bring him into the action over
(09:35):
and over again. So if you do that, you're gonna
get great shot after great shot. And I don't think
that mccal or Josh Hart are good defenders on either
of the Jays. I think that they're too small to
cause problems. Jason Tatum cooked mckel this year. OG does
a great job on both of them, But one perimeter
defender is not going to be enough in this matchup
(09:57):
to cover up for a couple of major major points
against an offense that has so much ball handling, so
much shooting, so much size that like everybody on the
team can exploit those defensive weak points in their own ways.
It's just too much to overcome.
Speaker 1 (10:12):
Yeah, I mean that's why I'm taking the Celtics in
this series. I don't agree that por Zinc. I'm not
ready to just pencil in the fact that Porzingis is
gonna have a great series. I mean, he looked really
fucking bad against Orland KP.
Speaker 4 (10:25):
Logan went from being the highest on KP.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
He had an excellent season. All I'm saying is I'm
just not he was bad last series. And all I'm
saying is absolutely I'm going to prioritize and take more
seriously the recent sample size that you have given me
more over than the like. Don't get me wrong, I
know what porzingis is on an average in the regular season,
and I know what his baseline is. All I'm saying
(10:50):
is the last two weeks of basketball have been really bad.
And so it's basketball is very much a rhythm sport.
It's like for a lot of these guys, shots going normally,
it's gonna translate, you're gonna stay hot. So I'm just
going with the trends and saying he's been on a
cold streak and I need to see him snap out
of it in a game. And it was I mean
(11:11):
it was at least like the last game was the
best one that we seen from KP And the reason
why was because he started rolling hard to the basket
and getting easy looks instead of settling when his jumper
was off. And so it's like, I just need to
see it before, but I can see it. I can
see anybody on Boston having an amazing series. That's why
it's such an uphill battle for the Knicks because I
(11:32):
feel like the Knicks can't disrupt Boston the way Boston
can disrupt them. And so it's way more important that
the Knicks can match that firepower offensively, and I think
they have the skill to do it. I just don't
think it's gonna be enough. And what I mean by
that is like, hypothetically, in a given game, Kat could
have an awesome offensive game and be the second best
(11:53):
player in a game. Brunson could very well be the
best player in a single game with how he plays
an Anobian Bridges can go off. But it's like the
Celtics just have more margin because of the elite defense.
So another key I think for the Knicks to get
this done, I think it is Jalen Brunson being the
best player in this series, being offensive number one that
(12:14):
we've come to know in love with Brunson. The issue
with that is the Celtics have a myriad of guys
that they can throw it to Brunson to make life
difficult on him, like if it's jb, if it's Tatum,
if it's Holiday or White, like, it is a hellish matchup.
And I think it's reflected by the fact these aren't
bad numbers, but Brunson's at twenty seven and five in
(12:35):
the regular season really really efficiently but the Celtics don't
help off a Ton, and so you're able to limit
some of Jalen Brunt's playmaking even if he's killing you
in isolation, and so that limits some of his value.
And then I think this is gonna be a tough
matchup for Ananobi, and I think this is gonna be
a tough matchup for Bridges and Cat to just manufacture
easy offense again because Boston is so elite at guarding
(12:56):
in single coverage. So I am gonna take the Celtics
pretty convince in this matchup. I think it's really uphill
for the Knicks. But I disagree with the Robinson thing, Carson,
And here's my thing. I don't disagree with the points
that you're making about why Robinson could be a bad
stylistical matchup. I don't think the Knicks have a good
answer for the Boston offense. And I think it is
very problematic when you have three glaring defensive points that
(13:21):
the Celtics could exploit on the floor at any given time,
if it's Brunton and Cat in isolation or if it's
Robinson in space. My thing with Robinson is I know
how physical he is, and I think it's just more
important that the Knicks try to go towards a lineup
or a player that's going to give them an advantage
in one area. And I see that with Robinson in
(13:42):
the fact that I think Robinson can anchor the glass
and can at least win them some extra possessions on
the boards. And I think that's just a little bit
more important to me than I don't think there's a
good answer for the Boston offense. And so I see
a tangible advantage by having Robinson there on the glass
as you think.
Speaker 4 (14:01):
What are you doing with Karl Anthony Towns when Mitchell
Robinson is on the floor out there with Because I
think that I'm hoping I'm working for Cat offensively and
this is not a series where he can play the
four defensively at the level that we've seen from.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
Him, because you're saying that Tatum is gonna be at
the four in most way a minute.
Speaker 4 (14:20):
They won't put him on Tatum, but they might have
to put him on Jalen Brown, like they have to
put him on somebody who can reasonably play.
Speaker 1 (14:26):
Off okay with That would be the one. I would
put him on JB. And I'd give him a cushion.
Speaker 4 (14:32):
Yeah, I still don't feel good about that. I still
don't feel good.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
Carson. I think we're gonna be too. I think we're
gonna be a game or two deep into the series
and the Knicks are gonna be desperately in scramble mode
saying what adjustments can I make? And this is one
that I would explore because I think Boston's gonna role
in this series. Like I'm just I'm trying to come
up with counters or something that the Knicks could do
(14:58):
to counteract this te Boston's a juggernaut though, I mean
we are literally this is we're trying to beat Thanos
right now. Man.
Speaker 4 (15:07):
Yeah, I can't knock them for trying stuff. I just
think that all of Boston's perimeter players are two skills,
so you're shooting two plays to put Cat on them
and have him like roam off or playoff them at all.
They'd make him guard on guard screens, Like, I just
think it'd be scary for Cat having to be actually
matched up against any of the Celtics perimeter players.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
Is hard out there with them. So how much burn
are you giving a guy like Robin this series is
even a factor to.
Speaker 4 (15:34):
You, I'm probably playing him basically in the non cat minutes.
I would not be inclined to play a lot of
double big looks. And I think that Mitchell Robinson is
a good player, but so is Josh Hard. I think
Josh Hart is a better player. So like, if I'm
giving him thirty three minutes and Mitch's out there getting fifteen,
that works for me. I don't think that they need
(15:55):
to try to force the issue because this just isn't
a team that you're gonna succeed having two relative least
slow footed bigs against Mitchkin Garden space more capably than Cat.
But Boston is just built to exploit teams that are
lacking foot speed, and if you can't contain the ball
against them, you're just totally fucked, man, because you're gonna
be bleeding wide open catch and shoot threes. And that's
(16:17):
when this team is at their absolute best. And that's
where I worry the Knicks would really really struggle to
contain the ball at all if they have two centers
on the floor. Really, I think the only way that
Boston's offense slows dout and all in this series is
just poor outside shooting because they're gonna be getting a
lot of great looks from three, as we've talked about.
(16:38):
If they can't make them, then all right, their offense
maybe won't be as potent, but they're a great shooting team,
Like that's not something that you're ever gonna be able
to bank on. On the flip side, I do think
the Knicks offense will do fine in this matchup. Like
Brunson versus the Celtics this year gave him twenty seven
a night on almost sixty seven percent true shooting. He'll
get his He's too good not to. And I was
(16:59):
just raving about his floor as a scorer, his ability
to consistently get into the paint and then dazzle you
with his great shot making from Florida range with those
short jumpers, to get to the line at a good rate. Like,
because he is so consistent in getting to those spots
and because he has such great endurance as a scorer,
he is going to probably put up close to thirty
(17:20):
points per game in this series. The thing is Holiday
and White both do a really good job on him,
and they are going to make him work. This is
what Brunson said about a SAR after last series like
Brunson's gonna get his, but he gave props to a
SAR for making him work. A sar really really made
him work. That's what I think he's gonna run into
again in this series, and the efficiency just isn't gonna
(17:43):
come as easily. He's gonna have to work a lot
harder than the Celtics are going to have to work
on the opposite side of the ball. For Kat, I
think that he could have a pretty good offensive series.
I actually thought that he was great in their last matchup.
He was doing a really nice job of bullying switches
in the exact way that I like to see from
cat where he's catching the ball with good post position,
(18:05):
he's back to the basket, back down, get to his
hook shot, keep it simple. That was really effective. And
he can exploit Kpe in a couple spots in the
same way that KP can exploit him, given that they're
both slower footed big so as a popper he might
get some good looks out in transition. As a trailer,
he might get some good looks from deep, but still
he's gonna have to work harder than the Celtics. Offensive
(18:28):
pieces are vice versa when they target him just because,
like everybody involved in this equation, the perimeter defenders, the
interior defenders are significantly better for Boston and they don't
have those weak points defensively. So it's just really really
hard for me to see how the Knicks make this
like a super tight series because I think the Boston
is the better offensive team with more firepower, and I
(18:50):
think Boston is the way better defensive team. This was
a terrible matchup for the Knicks all year. They're really good,
but they don't have the flexibility and the versity needed
to really compete with Boston's offense and to provide any resistance.
So I think it's very possible that the Magic just
(19:11):
played the Celtics tougher than the Knicks will I'm going
Celtics in five. If this went six, I wouldn't be shocked,
but I'd be impressed. I'd be like, good for you,
New York, because I just think that they are going
to get ripped to shreds on the defensive end.
Speaker 1 (19:25):
I've also got Celtics in five. Yeah, I think Orlando's
and people may look at it and say, you know,
the Knicks have more firepower and punch and obviously the do,
but when we're talking about the playoffs, it comes much
more down to matchups. And Orlando has consistently been great
at defending Boston and I think that's more important. And
Boston is like literally like a They're a historically great
(19:48):
offense in terms of what they do and the shots
that they generate and how easy they make it look.
I'm I'm I'm with you, man. If the Celtics, if
the Knicks can push six, I'll be impressed them and
I'll consider it a doug And can let me ask
you something? Let me ask you something about the Knicks
fully healthy last year? Who poses more of a threat
(20:09):
to this Celtics team last year's group of this year's.
That's an interesting years, Sherdenstein. You have Robinson, you have Randall.
Like again, that's why I say fully healthy, but you know,
de Vincenzo is still there. Like I definitely prefer the depth.
I just don't know if it's a better matchup.
Speaker 4 (20:26):
Still, that's a really interesting question. I guess it kind
of depends on like is Julius Randall going to defend
like we saw him in this past series or like
the version of the Knicks got of him defensively, but
I do think that that was certainly a better defensive group,
especially in this specific matchup, there's more of an offensive
(20:46):
burden on Brunson. I think it would be a serious
long shot either way, but I would say that team
had a better chance at least of making this more
of a series on the defensive end. But they didn't
have Michel obviously, so it's not a significant difference in
either way in my opinion. And I do think like
(21:06):
this fundamental roster construction with Kat as your defensive anchor
as your center and Brunson being out there as such
a liability as a small guard in this matchup where
their mismatch attacking is so elite, like they are going
to exploit those guys so easily that I don't see
the path to how New York can even get better
(21:28):
than this Boston team without making major changes, Like until
this Boston team breaks up.
Speaker 1 (21:34):
Well, I was gonna say, like what if after Porzingis.
Speaker 4 (21:36):
Leaves, Well, then that's a different story. But still I
wouldn't feel good about them because like, even though I
think Porzingis is gonna have a really good series, it's
not like he is necessary for Boston to dominate, like
if he's still struggling shooting, like you were talking about
cool man, I'm going with Al Horford and he's going
to be getting the same great pick and pop looks
and now we're super switchable defensively, Like you're really not
(22:01):
gonna lose your key advantages even if a guy like
KP isn't out there on the floor, even though I
do think that he should be significantly significantly better in
this series than he was in the last. Good for
the Knicks, man, really good team, amazing first round series.
Boston is just a juggernaut and the Knicks are not
the team that is built to give them a hard time.
(22:30):
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Speaker 4 (25:10):
Let's talk about the one seed Cleveland Cavaliers taking on
the four seed Indiana Pacers. Logan. I am extremely excited
for this matchup, more so definitely than I am for
Celtics Knicks, because I think that this one should be
more competitive and interesting and specifically, these are just two
(25:31):
phenomenal offenses. These were the top two offenses in the
first round of the playoffs by offensive rating, So we
know that we're in for a shootout between these two teams.
So Logan, I want to start with the Calves. How
do they try to slow the pacers potent offense down?
And do you think they're capable of doing that?
Speaker 2 (25:51):
Oh?
Speaker 1 (25:51):
Yeah, definitely. I think the Calves are really well equipped
to slow down the Pacers offense. Now, that's what's so
interesting about this series, man, is I think Calvs have
the personnel, but like the Pacers can throw such a
potent punch on any given game. I really think a
lot of these individual games could come down to which
(26:15):
team shoots better from behind the arc or whose bench
performs better. A few of these games could be decided
by that. The reason that I'm so confident in the
Cavaliers being able to disrupt Indiana specifically because of their
front court tandem of Evan Mobley and Jared Allen, and
(26:35):
specifically the like number two and number three on most
given nights for Halliburton. Halliburton's partners in crime are Pascal
Siakam and Miles Turner, and I just think Allen and
Mobley are really good to turns for them. Now, look,
Siaka and Turner both got theirs in the regular season.
These are only two games, mind you, the numbers that
I'm referring to against Cleveland because the final two games
(26:56):
were basically like B teams for Cleveland in two games
versus the actual healthy Calves. Siakam put up twenty one
to eight and three and Turner gave you sixteen to
eight and one. I think to beat Cleveland, those guys
are gonna have to produce a little bit better than that.
But Allan and Mobley are great defensively, and I think
they can actually disrupt both of those guys. Mobiley can
(27:17):
guard in space on either of those guys. He's one
hell of a rim protector and Alan is one hell
of a rim protector too. So I think a lot
of the easy offense that Indiana is able to generate
Cleveland can really throw a wrench into. If it's if
it is Siakham and Turner individually in these matchups, or
if it's a guy like Obi Toppen, who gave them
really good minutes last round, I think the Caves can
do a really good job of taking some of those
(27:38):
shots away. And that's where I really look at at
Mobiley is the difference maker and X factor in this series.
Carson like offensively and defensively. Man, I don't look at
a player on Indiana being able to hold him. I
think he's gonna dominate on the glass. I think he's
gonna wreck the game defensively, and I don't think the
Pacers have a good answer for him offense. And so
(28:03):
this is a really fascinating series, man. But I think
Cleveland is probably more well equipped to slow down Indiana,
I'd say, than anybody else in the field, save in
the East, save Boston, because I think Boston's just got
such a wealth of defenders that they can go to.
But if there's anybody else that I believe in, it's
definitely Cleveland. Man. I think they're gonna make life. I
(28:25):
think they're gonna make life harder on Indiana than anybody
has in the past two years.
Speaker 4 (28:30):
It is definitely hard to slow this Pacers offense down
no matter what, though, Like that's a real challenge for anybody,
and they've just been playing phenomenal basketball for a really
extended stretch. Now they are forty five and nineteen. Since
they're slow start to the season, they've been a top
seven offense in that span, and obviously we just saw
them absolutely shred the Bucks defense. I do think that
(28:53):
Cleveland is significantly better equipped to deal with the Pacers
on the defensive end, because everything's arts with the Pacers offense,
with their pick and roll attack, and can you do
anything to keep them remotely in check. The Bucks were
not capable of that, especially when brook Lopez was on
the floor, because he was a slow footed, true drop
big and they were just able to exploit him out
(29:14):
in space and manufacture a bunch of great looks from
beyond the arc. The ideal pick and roll coverage against
the Pacers is to be able to switch everything, because
then you can force Hallie to try to beat you
as a score in isolation where he's not as great
as he is when he's just picking a part drop
coverage and he's consistently finding the bigs popping and he's
(29:36):
getting to his floater and his pull up three. He's
so so comfortable doing all of that, and you're taking
away the pick and pop looks. For Miles Turner especially,
but also for Siakaman. Those guys are great jump shooting bigs,
especially Turner like that is his bread and butter offensively,
if you can force them to beat a switch against
somebody who's actually capable defending, especially for Turner, like that
(29:58):
is a much more effective counter to him defensively. Seakham
is a great mismatch attacker, so you have to be
able to get a decent body on him for that
to be functional. So I would start putting Max Strus
on Hallie. I think that this is probably a series
in which Struce is starting again over DeAndre Hunter, although
I can see the case for starting Hunter because then,
(30:20):
like there's basically no advantage off switches for the Pacers,
because if Hunter is switching on to Siakam, well he
can really defend in that matchup if he's switching on
a Turner like this is a six to eight forward
with really good tools. But Struce, I think can still
do a decent enough job on those bigger guys off
of switches, and I do think he's more equipped to
(30:42):
deal with a guard like Halle on a possession to
possession basis. So that's where I would start, and the
really key component for Cleveland executing this scheme defensively, is
that Evan Mobley and Jared Allen are really good switching bigs.
They are both very comfortable guard out in space. Especially
Mobili is one of the best bigs in basketball guarding
(31:05):
in space. I will say, we just saw in the
last game that Hallie played him toasting Yannis off the
bounce off of switches, and although Yannis has certainly regressed defensively,
that's still one of the more high end defensive bigs
guarding out in space in the NBA. But I think
that you're always better off trying to make Hallie beat
(31:26):
a big, good athlete one on one then again letting
him pick you apart out of drop. And I think
it's gonna be really, really important that Halle gets his
three ball going because he can get by you. But
as we've talked about, he's not always super confident in
his ability to finish in traffic. He's going to look
to facilitate if he does get by you, and he's
(31:47):
gonna create good shots for others. But with a guy
who can move his feet like mobilely in space, he
might try to get him to give him a little
bit more of that cushion and then see if he
can hunt the step back three, see if he can
really get that pull up Threegoing that to me is
what I would expect Halle to be hunting, and he's
got to shoot better than he did last series for
that to be really effective. So I definitely think that
(32:09):
they have a better counter for the Pacers pick and
roll attack than the Bucks did by far, because they
can actually switch everything with their best personnel, whereas like
the Bucks had to go to Bobby Ports, they had
to go to kind of their bench group to be
able to execute that even functionally, and still they didn't
have as good personnel as the Cavs do. The one
(32:29):
week point for Cleveland defensively is Darius Garland. In any matchup,
but especially if you are running a very switch heavy scheme,
I think you have to put him on Andrew Nemhard,
And I think that when Nemhard is running pick and roll,
you're not switching everything and you're playing drop and you
have Garland late switch to get out to the three
(32:51):
point line if the Big pops, and then you're potentially
gonna have to like force the Big to beat Garland
from the perimeter or if they just reset and they
try to get the big post position, then you may
have to double and scramble, try to switch back really quickly,
like Garland is going to present problems for them defensively
no matter what. In my goal is just to hide
(33:11):
him as much as possible and not immediately concede a
switch to the Bigs because it's just too much of
a size advantage, and especially Seakham, he's so good at
exploiting that. So Cleveland they've got excellent backline defenders with
their two bigs. But the biggest key against Indiana is
containing the ball to begin with, because the drive and
(33:32):
kick game, especially with Halle, like that's when they're at
their best, making the extra pass, finding open shooters, moving
without the ball, and moving the ball, and you have
to not concede those outright mismatches as much as possible,
if that is for Halle out on the perimeter or
if that is for Seakam off a switch. I think
Cleveland can do a pretty good job at executing those
(33:54):
two objectives. And you talked about the Pacers front court
and who they are going to be dealing with as
their matchups, Like I really think Siakam is going to
have to do most of his work in this series,
either in transition or off of switches, because I think
he's got a really difficult individual matchup in Evan Mobley.
I think Mobley's gonna do a great job on him
when they're just matched up straight up.
Speaker 1 (34:15):
I just wouldn't attack Evan Mobley. I mean, if you're
a defensive player of the Year, I think any switch
you get on him, I'm passing the ball just like
that's not even.
Speaker 4 (34:22):
A even for Halle. You're not trying to get by him.
Speaker 1 (34:24):
I's swatting that shit. I don't know if Halle's like
I know, Halle's got a good step back and release,
but with that set jumper, I just wonder if he's
gonna have enough time to get it over those long
arms and mobile and Mobley's a really great defender in space.
So but Halle is the guy that I look at
for Indiana. Obviously, Halliburton's the start of the team. He's
the guy that's gonna have to go above and beyond
in this series to make it happen, because I do
(34:45):
think he has the key matchup on the other end
that he can exploit, and that is Darius Garland in
single coverage, and that's who I'm attacking if I'm Indiana,
and that's who I'm attacking if I'm Boston. If we're
looking forward to the conference finals, Garland is the guy
that I'm going at repeatedly, over and over again. And
that's why I think it's important that Hallie stays aggressive
(35:06):
in this matchup, hunts his shot continuously, like I don't
know how easy it's gonna be for anybody else. And
Indiana is a really good system. They're good at relocating
off ball and like you said, the driving kick game,
the ball movement, it all moves in tandem. But everybody
else is a really good defender on Cleveland save Mitchell
and Garland. And that's why I'm attacking both of those guys.
(35:26):
But Halliburton is the guy to me that can get
to those step back jumpers, that can get to those
runners in the lane, that little intermediate mid range area.
He's the guy that I trust the most to create
and generate his own looks in this series. And I
don't know, man, like I think for the Pacers to
win this series, dude, I think that the Pacers get
super hot shooting from behind the arc. I think you
(35:49):
need all hands on deck. I'm talking them hard, Siakam Turner,
flame throwing behind the arc, Nie Smith, Mathern, everybody, Ben Sheppard,
nobody's missing. And I think Halliburton needs to give you Like,
is like twenty seven too ridiculous of a number. I
think it's gonna have to be really a big number,
really high for Halle to do. I'm at least saying
(36:10):
bare minimum twenty five plus wow, at the minimum for
the Pacers to win this series from Halle, And I
think that's a lot to ask.
Speaker 4 (36:18):
I do think he absolutely has to be better as
a shooter and scorer in this series. Like he was
phenomenal as a playmaker creating for others in Round one
because again he was just exploiting Brooke over and over again.
He was doing a nice job of beating switches with
his quickness not to score, but to playmake. All that
stuff was great. But with how much I expect Cleveland
(36:41):
to switch, and with how capable their bigs are guarding
in space, like Halle is going to have to be
more of a consistent scoring presence, and personally, I would
definitely be more inclined to try to get that Jared
Allen switch than the Mobile switch. Even though Allen is
good guarding in space, he not as great as Mobile is.
(37:02):
So I do think that Hallie is the key player
for the Pacers in this series. I do think that
they're gonna get theirs offensively, But like you said, I
think that the Calves are gonna be even harder to stop.
So how do you feel about the other side of
the ball. How can Indiana's defense try to slow the
Calves down? And is that possible?
Speaker 1 (37:24):
No, I don't think it is. I think this is
gonna be too overwhelming for Indiana. Really, it is because
of the drive and kick game for Cleveland in this aspect.
To me, Cleveland's offense is so good. All the contributors
play so together like one. We can just start with
(37:45):
the individuals. Mitchell and Garland are a handful to deal
with in isolation. By themselves, Garland's one of the quickest
guards in basketball. If his pull up three is going,
if his floater is going like He's just a tough
matchup to deal with individually. Mitchell, by himself, we all
know a hot he can get. He gets to the
rim effortlessly, and when his pull up three is going.
(38:07):
He's super hard to stop. So those guys are problems period.
Then you get to Evan Mobley, and Mobley is a
handful to deal with now in single coverage because, like
he just to me, has such distinct athletic advantages against
Indiana's biggs. I don't know how they slow him down.
I think he's quicker footed off the dribble than both
of them. I think he could get by Siakam and
(38:29):
Turner pretty reliably. But he's also longer and more athletic
than both of those guys, where I think he's gonna
win box outs and get to easy looks off putbacks
and on the offensive glass, and I think he's just
gonna be able to get by them and over the
top of them for shots at the rim. Now he
can space the floor two, which is gonna drag Siakam
or Turner away for the rim and open up everything
(38:50):
else for everybody in the middle. But the biggest problem
to me, Carson is the collective. It's all the shooting
that Cleveland has together, and it's the ability for all
of these guys after the advantage is created to attack
closeouts and get into the lane that then puts everybody
in rotation and open. That opens up stuff on the
back end, if that's catching shooters or if that's guys
(39:12):
in the dunker spots, because I don't like Indiana's rim
protection either, where I could see Allen and Mobley feasting
really efficiently under the rim with easy opportunities. And again,
it's not just Mitchell and Garland. It's Tied Jerome off
the bench, who can manufacture you some shots. It's Max
Struce giving you some supplementary ball handling, It's DeAndre Hunter
giving you the tertiary ball handling. Like it's everybody that
(39:35):
can kill you on this team. And Cleveland's been the
best offense in basketball. That's the point I don't want
to undersell. It's like Indiana, I think can go blow
for blow, can go buck for buck for most of
the game. But Cleveland has the offense that I trust more,
and they got the defense that I trust more. That's
a huge imperative point of this. But I just do
trust Cleveland's offense to churn it out, to keep going
(39:57):
and never stop and h they're just one of the
toughest offenses to stop in the in the NBA. Man,
it's really as simple as that.
Speaker 4 (40:05):
They are statistically one of the greatest offenses that we've
ever seen. They were a top ten relative offense in
league history this season. Then they went out and put
forth the single highest offensive rating we have ever seen
in a playoff series. They are one of the greatest
pick and roll attacks that we have ever seen. So
they are the best offensive basketball and it's going to
(40:25):
be a major, major challenge for the Pacers to offer
any resistance. I do want to give credit to Indiana
for their improvement on the defensive end this year, where
they've gone from a group that was I think twenty
fourth in defensive rating last year to being really solid
this year. And they have good point of attack defenders
like Andrew Memhard. Is a solid matchup for Darius Garland.
(40:47):
Smiths gonna presure the ball. Yeah, Nie Smith is solid too,
but Memhard, he's quick, he's feisty. I'm just not sure
how uncomfortable he can actually make Darius Garland because he
doesn't have that elite size in length. Nie Smith, I
also think, is a decent matchup on Mitchell, but he's
not quite quick enough for me to love him in
(41:07):
that matchup against a guard. As explosive as Donovan Mitchell.
And when you think about what Indiana does at a
high level defensively, it's really their ability to pressure the ball.
They bring more ball pressure than basically any other defense
in basketball. Maybe Minnesota brings more. Cleveland might be the
best equipped offense to beat that, though, Like their entire
(41:28):
offense is captained by two phenomenal ball handling guards who
have great quickness, so they're just not going to be
bothered by that ball pressure. And now maybe they're even
beating you down Courton. Now they're able to get into
some early offense, and then they've got another guard and
ty Jerome, who can come in and lead the show
and is also extremely extremely potent offensively. So they were
(41:49):
a phenomenal offense versus the press this year. I just
don't think that's going to bother them, and I just
really don't see Indiana being able to contain those two
guards much at all. And that kick starts everything for
the Calves offense because they have two of the best
offensive guards and two of the best pick and roll
creators in basketball. And when they are consistently getting downhill,
(42:11):
they're obviously going to fry you as pull up shooters
as well, especially Garland, but then they're able to really
create phenomenal three point looks for excellent shooters all around them.
The Calves are one of, if not the best cutting
team in basketball, with great play finishing big. So, like,
if the guards are going to be comfortable, the Calves
(42:31):
offense is going to be dominant. And I think the
guards are going to be comfortable in this matchup because
this offense is just special, man. Like I mentioned, elite
shooting all around. The Pacers create a lot of good
looks from three, and they have a lot of good shooters,
but it's on another level with the Calves. They were
top two and threes made, and they were top two
and three point percenters this year, and in their first
(42:51):
round series they just made nineteen threes per game and
shot forty four percent from deep, and like, yeah, that's
a crazy shooting series. But when you have Garland Mitchell
in an improved mobile and Max Struz who is a weapon,
and DeAndre Hunter who's a forty percent three point shooter,
and Ty Jerome who's an elite three point shooter, I
don't think Sam Marrow plays a ton in this series,
but he's an elite shooter. Dean Wade is a good shooter. Like,
(43:12):
they just have so many weapons. They do have even
more offensive firepower. They do have even more depth, Like
I think that favors Cleveland. That's a rare thing for
Indiana to not have the depth advantage. But as good
as their depth is, like even Cleveland's quote unquote bench
units are still going to include multiple elite basketball players
(43:34):
because of their minute stagger. You're always going to have
one of the great guards in one of the great
bigs on the floor, and then their bench players are
really really good. They have one of the best and
deepest offensive supporting casts that we've seen in a long time.
So if I'm Kenny Atkinson, I would count on my
top seven specifically a little bit more than he has,
(43:54):
Like even last series, he was going straight up ten deep.
There's a couple guys who I'm not as inclined to
play out much in this series, like Merrill because of
his defensive limitations, like Okoro because I don't trust his
offense as much. But their top seven is phenomenal, Like
I would lean even more into Hunter and Strus just
eating up those minutes on the wings because I think
(44:14):
that they are so good really on both sides of
the ball. And I think that Kenny can just play
his best guys a little more than usual, Like he's
been playing his best players thirty minutes per game and
to end this year and going ten deep consistently, Like
this is a series where he can play his best
guys thirty four or thirty six minutes a game and
he can still go eight deep with awesome basketball players.
(44:34):
And I just think that they're gonna win the minutes
for the most part with all of their different lineup combinations,
because they have so many different great lineup combinations. Like
you said it, man, there's just a lot of little
advantages that Cleveland has that amount to them being pretty
clearly the better basketball team. Like I trust the offense
even a little bit more.
Speaker 1 (44:55):
All their players are so versatile too, man, like in yeah,
there's not a lot of one dimensional players in Cleveland.
Like if you can shoot, the guy can normally play
make a little bit or attack a close out right
like Ty Jerome and Struce. That's what I'm saying, Like
even if they're not creating the initial action on ball,
like if they're attacking a close out, both of those
(45:17):
guys are smart enough and good enough skill wise, they're
either gonna get to a good look or they're gonna
dump it off to a big or you know, if
it's mobile now, like Cleveland really is, like pick your poison, man,
do you want us to have an easy look in
the lane or do you want us to have an
easy look from three? Because we're gonna generate one or
the other. It's Cleveland's damn good man like they are.
(45:39):
And I'm telling you, I know we've said this, but
if Boston has another down series, I really think they're
vulnerable like Boston. Again, let me be clear about that,
because I don't want to to get misconstrued. I think
Boston has to play really below the level that we
expect them. Like, but if that series goes six or seven,
the Celtics series, I think they're susceptible and the Calves
(46:00):
are that good.
Speaker 4 (46:01):
Oh yeah, Boston's gotta be sharp offensively because Cleveland's offense
is just gonna be dominant in any matchup. I mean,
it's just an insane combination of elite creation and elite
play finishing, both in terms of shooting and at the rim.
So I think that they have the better offensive personnel,
they have more star power, they're deeper, they have the
better defensive personnel, They're better on the boards. They were
(46:25):
twelveth in rebound rate, the Pacers were twenty eighth. Cleveland's
gonna go double big. A lot part of the Pacers
being so low, I think is they normally just really
don't crash the offensive glass. But still Cleveland is the
better rebounding team. They're the better team on both sides.
And if I had to identify a key player for them,
I guess I'll go with two. I think it's the Bigs.
(46:47):
I think that they really set the tone for Cleveland
in a number of ways in this series. Like I
do think they really have to dictate the glass because
that should be an advantage for Cleveland in this matchup,
But they weren't a great defensive rebounding team down the
stretch of this season, so they've got to win on
the glass. The Bigs are crucial to your entire defensive
game plan because they have to really defend well on switches.
(47:09):
I'm saying their defensive game plan. I don't know what
they're gonna do. I'm certainly expecting them to be switched
heavy in this matchup. And then I think that Mobile
is really important offensively because he's got to keep stepping
into and hitting threes, and he's got to be comfortable
attacking mismatches when he gets them. I have faith in
the Calves checking all of those boxes, and like I
want to be clear, I'm saying the Calves are better
(47:30):
in all these areas. I don't expect the Pacers to
get blown out in a single game in this series. Like,
I just think their offensive floor is so so high
and their depth is still so good. They're just so
reliably great, especially offensively. I think we're in for an
awesome six game series. But it would be disappointing for
(47:52):
the Calves if they lost this. Like, Indiana's really good.
I do think they're the third best team in the East.
Speaker 1 (47:56):
I mean, it would be a monumental disappointment. It would
be a meltdown, is what I would consider it. Like,
Indiana is a really good team. I mean it would
be crazy for them. Back to back Eastern Conference Finals
appearances like this.
Speaker 4 (48:08):
So good for the Halley agendas. Oh my god, we'd
be eating phenomenal. We'd be feasting.
Speaker 1 (48:12):
But I think Cleveland's way better. And like you said,
I am gonna take this to be a shorter series
because of my faith in Cleveland. But I think all
of these games are gonna be really close into the
fourth quarter. So I'm gonna take And I'm disappointed because
I wanted to be a little bit spicier with either
of these predictions. But I'm gonna take the Calves in five.
Speaker 4 (48:32):
Wow. Wow, that's interesting. It's hard for me to pick
anybody to beat Indiana that quickly. I don't know. Their
offense is just so great that, like, even though they
lost to Boston in a sweep last year, all of
those games were so close and they didn't have Halle
for two of them, even like I think is more
good too.
Speaker 1 (48:52):
This is more of a respect thing for Cleveland.
Speaker 4 (48:54):
I love it. Listen, man, I love Calves respect. I
think it's insane that a team won sixty four games
and at a top twenty NET rating and a history
and everybody wants to go out there and call them
the twenty fifteen Hawks or slander them in whatever way.
Cleveland is phenomenal. They have been a part of a
tier that is well above everybody else in basketball. End
to end this year with just Boston and OKC, and
(49:14):
I'm very very excited to see what they do in
this series. But I'm also excited to see what the
Pacers do because I love them and I think these
are two great offensive teams, which means we're gonna have
a lot of really really fun games in this series.
There you have it, folks, our previews, our predictions, our
keys for these two incoming Eastern Conference semifinals. So excited
(49:36):
for both of these matchups, and very excited to see
what is coming next in the West, which we will
know for sure over these next couple of days. We've
got Rockets Warriors Game six tonight. We will be live
after that. Then we've got Clippers Nuggets Game seven tomorrow.
We will be live after that. If you don't already know,
we've been live every single night of the postseason so
far after the games wrap up, given our takes YAP
(49:58):
and away, so you can always come join us there
for the postgame live stream. You can also catch all
those episodes later and on our YouTube channel, you can
see all of our video essays and video breakdowns that
we do where we go more in depth on a
specific topic. You can also listen to the shows across
all audio platforms, and you can follow us across social TikTok,
Instagram at nerd sessh, Twitter at nerd underscore Sesh to
(50:19):
see clips from the show, graphics from the show, and
all of our short form trivia content. So with that,
as always appreciate you guys. I've been Carson Breber, I
have been loading Camden and this was nerd Sash
The volume. No, Oh my god, how could he do that?
Speaker 2 (00:14):
By what Charles Darwin?
Speaker 3 (00:20):
The nerves is where it's at.
Speaker 4 (00:23):
Welcome everybody back into Nerd Sash. As always, I'm Carson
Bremer and alongside me is Logan Camden, and today we
are going to be previewing both Eastern Conference semi final
series which are now set in stone. After the New
York Knicks knocked out the Pistons last night, so they
are now set to face the Boston Celtics. As we
(00:45):
look at this matchup, Logan, how do you think the
Knicks will have to approach dealing with this Celtics offense
that is so potent and do they have any chance
of slowing them down?
Speaker 1 (00:58):
The regular season track record would suggest that this team doesn't.
Boston in their matchups in the regular season against the
Knicks this year put up an offensive rating of one
thirty two point seven. And one of the biggest keys
and things that I'm looking at for the Knicks in
this series to come out on top or to just
have a chance of upsetting the Boston Celtics is if
(01:20):
the Knicks defense can overcome the two glaring defensive liabilities.
Carson and I have talked about this ad nauseum when
we bring up the Knicks throughout the regular season and
into the playoffs, and it has been the reason why
we couldn't consider the Knicks to be like real deal
title contenders is just the consistency and the ceiling of
(01:40):
this defense. It's really hard to build a great team
defense around guys like Jalen Brunston and Karl Anthony Towns
when they're starting as a point guard, when he is
your point of attack guy, and then your de facto
rim protector Karl Anthony Towns at the five. And if
there's anything we know about this Celtics offense, it's that
they have two superpowers. It's the volume an efficient three
(02:02):
point shooting, which I think the Knicks can try to mitigate.
But they're also elite mismatch attackers. And so if Jalen
Brown were to get that switch on Jalen Brunson food,
Jason Tatum gets that switch on Jalen Brunson Food, right, anybody,
Brunson's a glaring defensive liability if they make Karl Anthony
Towns defend in space or defend picking rolls like it's
a problem, Like it's really hard to overcome that. So
(02:25):
I think they should play more Mitchell Robinson Carson. I
don't know if that entails like more of a double
big lineup, because I think that you're gonna run into
problems with that too, where both of them are having
to defend in space, where Cat's gonna have to be
more on the perimeter. There's not an easy answer guarding Boston.
Boston likes to force guys to switch, likes to get
(02:45):
those mismatches. They like to spread defenses out and attack
in space, and it's just it's really hard. I think
that ananobe in Bridges can disrupt Tatum and Brown a
little bit. I actually think that they match up pretty
well against their star guards. But to me, it's about
how well Brunson can match up on these mismatches and
(03:07):
how much Kat can defend well in space. But like
I said, I'm gonna try to mitigate that, I think
by trotting out more Mitchell Robinson and trying to play
a little more physically. Man, I just think the Knicks
are gonna have to be more physical. I think they're
gonna have to win on the glass, They're gonna have
to try other things because I think that I don't
really see like the Knicks convincingly slowing down this Boston
(03:28):
offensive attack. I think it's easier said than done, and
I think gets you hope that you try to make
life difficult on their shooters. You hope that christophs Porzingis
has a down series. But there are just personnel limitations
that I think the Knicks are gonna really struggle to
overcome in this matchup.
Speaker 4 (03:43):
I really do not think going double big is the
answer for the New York next in this series. I
just think Boston has way too much shooting and skill
and speed out in space, and if you have two
true centers on the floor, they are going to exploit
that repeatedly. And if they want to exercise and they
have a way better double big look that they can
throw at you with Horford and KP and they'll still
(04:05):
have all of that elite perimeter skill in shooting around them.
So to me, that's not the answer. But the thing is,
there isn't an answer. Like you mentioned, Celtics were four
to zero against the Knicks this year with almost a
one to thirty three offensive rating in a plus seventeen
net rating, Like they absolutely kicked the Knicks ass and
(04:25):
the reason for that is they are incapable of getting
stops in this matchup, like the Celtics offense might as
well have been built in a lab to exploit the
Knicks defensive week points. To be fair, the Celtics offense
is just great in a vacuum, and the Knicks defense
has a couple of clear limitations in a vacuum. But
it's the Celtics' ability to relentlessly target the two guys
(04:49):
you mentioned logan when they ran pick and roll involving
Jalen Brunson this year, Boston generated one point twenty nine
points per possession. That's a one twenty nine offense rating.
In the half court. You talk about how if Tatum
or Brown get Brunson on a switch, then he's cooked.
But even more significant is all of the advantages that
(05:12):
the Knicks can sede trying to prevent those guys from
getting that switch. And when they call up Brunson's man
to set a screen, you can't blitz the ball handler,
especially if it's Jason Tatum because he's so good as
a playmaker, but there's so much shooting around them, and
if it's Derek White screening, and then popping Like, there's
not a much worse shot that you can concede as
(05:33):
a defense than a Derek White open three, So you're
not gonna be able to put two on the ball.
What they're going to resort to for the most part,
because they also feel like they can't switch, is having
Jalen Brunson's show a lot. But that means that the
pull up three is gonna be there for Jason Tatum
a lot. If Brunson shows a little bit too briefly,
or if he stays on the ball for a little
(05:55):
too long, then that pass to the popping guard is
going to be there. And you're talking about an elite
shooter getting a great look from three. So every time
that Brunson is involved in the action, New York is
basically screwed. Like they are just picking their poison and
they both really are bad options whatever they choose to do.
And then when Brunson's just defending the ball handler, like
(06:17):
even if it's just Derek White running pick and roll
with Chris tops porzingis Brunson's screen navigation sucks, he's getting
left in the dust, or because he's a bad screen navigator,
he's trying to go under screens and he's letting up
wide open threes to like a Derek White. You just
cannot have that happening. So they are going to target
Brunson over and over and over again in this series,
(06:39):
and I think they are going to get great shot
after great shot out of it. I would definitely put
Brunson Andrew Holliday over Derek White. We've seen him matched
up with both of them. I just think White is
a more imposing offensive weapon and basically every way as
a shooter, he's more dynamic as a ball handler and
as a playmaker at this point, just more of an
offensive weapon. But you're still not going to be able
(07:01):
to hide Brunson, like They're still going to use Drew
as a screener over and over if they do that,
and all of the same fundamental weaknesses are there for
the next defense, and then you have the Karl Anthony
Towns problem. When Boston involved Cat in pick and roll
this year, they generated one point two to two points
per possession, so still astronomically great offense. What the Knicks
(07:23):
are going to do most likely is have Cat playing
in like a decently high drop. But if Tatum's pull
up three is on, then you're cooked. Like he will
walk into those pull up jumpers over and over again. Plus,
Kat's not a good drop defender, so like, even if
Tatum is trying to get more downhill, Cat's not going
(07:43):
to offer much resistance at the rim. He's not good
moving his feet in space. And since he's gonna be
playing again in not a deep drop but a higher drop,
like there's opportunities for Tatum to blow by him if
he gets a good runway going downhill. He's just not
a good pick and roll defender. And maybe the most
problematic aspect is, like you have cat and drop, Christaps
(08:04):
Porzingis is going to kill you with the pick and
pop game.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
And I mean maybe, I mean he was pretty shot
in first round.
Speaker 4 (08:12):
He was, and the shot was just off. But this
is a much better matchup for him. And unless his
shot is just like freakishly off, this dude was a
forty three point shooter in the regular season. He was
the best picking pop big in basketball. This is a
matchup in which he is going to get phenomenal looks
from beyond the arc. And he destroyed the Knicks last
(08:32):
time they play. And specifically, he's just a nightmare matchup
for Cat, because Kat isn't built to garden space like that.
So if it is the pick and pop game, if
it's KP punishing Cat for overhelping because he's such a
weapon from beyond the arc, if it's him punishing Cat
for not being active enough in transition, giving him a
little too much space, like he is going to get
(08:53):
some great looks from three and I think this should
be a monster KP series Offensively. I understand how much
he struggled last series that was a very different matchup,
and as long as he finds his outside shot, he's
going to get the looks that he needs to kill
the Knicks as well. So I just think everybody is
going to feast offensively in this series. For Boston, and
they just have way too much shooting and it's way
(09:14):
too easy for them to exploit Cat guarding in space.
You talk about Og doing a great job on Jason Tatum,
I think that he does. But if I'm Tatum, I
might not isolate Og once in this entire series, Like
why would I do that? I'm going to call up
Brunson's man, going to call up Kat's man screen over
and over, or you bring him into the action over
(09:35):
and over again. So if you do that, you're gonna
get great shot after great shot. And I don't think
that mccal or Josh Hart are good defenders on either
of the Jays. I think that they're too small to
cause problems. Jason Tatum cooked mckel this year. OG does
a great job on both of them, But one perimeter
defender is not going to be enough in this matchup
(09:57):
to cover up for a couple of major major points
against an offense that has so much ball handling, so
much shooting, so much size that like everybody on the
team can exploit those defensive weak points in their own ways.
It's just too much to overcome.
Speaker 1 (10:12):
Yeah, I mean that's why I'm taking the Celtics in
this series. I don't agree that por Zinc. I'm not
ready to just pencil in the fact that Porzingis is
gonna have a great series. I mean, he looked really
fucking bad against Orland KP.
Speaker 4 (10:25):
Logan went from being the highest on KP.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
He had an excellent season. All I'm saying is I'm
just not he was bad last series. And all I'm
saying is absolutely I'm going to prioritize and take more
seriously the recent sample size that you have given me
more over than the like. Don't get me wrong, I
know what porzingis is on an average in the regular season,
and I know what his baseline is. All I'm saying
(10:50):
is the last two weeks of basketball have been really bad.
And so it's basketball is very much a rhythm sport.
It's like for a lot of these guys, shots going normally,
it's gonna translate, you're gonna stay hot. So I'm just
going with the trends and saying he's been on a
cold streak and I need to see him snap out
of it in a game. And it was I mean
(11:11):
it was at least like the last game was the
best one that we seen from KP And the reason
why was because he started rolling hard to the basket
and getting easy looks instead of settling when his jumper
was off. And so it's like, I just need to
see it before, but I can see it. I can
see anybody on Boston having an amazing series. That's why
it's such an uphill battle for the Knicks because I
(11:32):
feel like the Knicks can't disrupt Boston the way Boston
can disrupt them. And so it's way more important that
the Knicks can match that firepower offensively, and I think
they have the skill to do it. I just don't
think it's gonna be enough. And what I mean by
that is like, hypothetically, in a given game, Kat could
have an awesome offensive game and be the second best
(11:53):
player in a game. Brunson could very well be the
best player in a single game with how he plays
an Anobian Bridges can go off. But it's like the
Celtics just have more margin because of the elite defense.
So another key I think for the Knicks to get
this done, I think it is Jalen Brunson being the
best player in this series, being offensive number one that
(12:14):
we've come to know in love with Brunson. The issue
with that is the Celtics have a myriad of guys
that they can throw it to Brunson to make life
difficult on him, like if it's jb, if it's Tatum,
if it's Holiday or White, like, it is a hellish matchup.
And I think it's reflected by the fact these aren't
bad numbers, but Brunson's at twenty seven and five in
(12:35):
the regular season really really efficiently but the Celtics don't
help off a Ton, and so you're able to limit
some of Jalen Brunt's playmaking even if he's killing you
in isolation, and so that limits some of his value.
And then I think this is gonna be a tough
matchup for Ananobi, and I think this is gonna be
a tough matchup for Bridges and Cat to just manufacture
easy offense again because Boston is so elite at guarding
(12:56):
in single coverage. So I am gonna take the Celtics
pretty convince in this matchup. I think it's really uphill
for the Knicks. But I disagree with the Robinson thing, Carson,
And here's my thing. I don't disagree with the points
that you're making about why Robinson could be a bad
stylistical matchup. I don't think the Knicks have a good
answer for the Boston offense. And I think it is
very problematic when you have three glaring defensive points that
(13:21):
the Celtics could exploit on the floor at any given time,
if it's Brunton and Cat in isolation or if it's
Robinson in space. My thing with Robinson is I know
how physical he is, and I think it's just more
important that the Knicks try to go towards a lineup
or a player that's going to give them an advantage
in one area. And I see that with Robinson in
(13:42):
the fact that I think Robinson can anchor the glass
and can at least win them some extra possessions on
the boards. And I think that's just a little bit
more important to me than I don't think there's a
good answer for the Boston offense. And so I see
a tangible advantage by having Robinson there on the glass
as you think.
Speaker 4 (14:01):
What are you doing with Karl Anthony Towns when Mitchell
Robinson is on the floor out there with Because I
think that I'm hoping I'm working for Cat offensively and
this is not a series where he can play the
four defensively at the level that we've seen from.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
Him, because you're saying that Tatum is gonna be at
the four in most way a minute.
Speaker 4 (14:20):
They won't put him on Tatum, but they might have
to put him on Jalen Brown, like they have to
put him on somebody who can reasonably play.
Speaker 1 (14:26):
Off okay with That would be the one. I would
put him on JB. And I'd give him a cushion.
Speaker 4 (14:32):
Yeah, I still don't feel good about that. I still
don't feel good.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
Carson. I think we're gonna be too. I think we're
gonna be a game or two deep into the series
and the Knicks are gonna be desperately in scramble mode
saying what adjustments can I make? And this is one
that I would explore because I think Boston's gonna role
in this series. Like I'm just I'm trying to come
up with counters or something that the Knicks could do
(14:58):
to counteract this te Boston's a juggernaut though, I mean
we are literally this is we're trying to beat Thanos
right now. Man.
Speaker 4 (15:07):
Yeah, I can't knock them for trying stuff. I just
think that all of Boston's perimeter players are two skills,
so you're shooting two plays to put Cat on them
and have him like roam off or playoff them at all.
They'd make him guard on guard screens, Like, I just
think it'd be scary for Cat having to be actually
matched up against any of the Celtics perimeter players.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
Is hard out there with them. So how much burn
are you giving a guy like Robin this series is
even a factor to.
Speaker 4 (15:34):
You, I'm probably playing him basically in the non cat minutes.
I would not be inclined to play a lot of
double big looks. And I think that Mitchell Robinson is
a good player, but so is Josh Hard. I think
Josh Hart is a better player. So like, if I'm
giving him thirty three minutes and Mitch's out there getting fifteen,
that works for me. I don't think that they need
(15:55):
to try to force the issue because this just isn't
a team that you're gonna succeed having two relative least
slow footed bigs against Mitchkin Garden space more capably than Cat.
But Boston is just built to exploit teams that are
lacking foot speed, and if you can't contain the ball
against them, you're just totally fucked, man, because you're gonna
be bleeding wide open catch and shoot threes. And that's
(16:17):
when this team is at their absolute best. And that's
where I worry the Knicks would really really struggle to
contain the ball at all if they have two centers
on the floor. Really, I think the only way that
Boston's offense slows dout and all in this series is
just poor outside shooting because they're gonna be getting a
lot of great looks from three, as we've talked about.
(16:38):
If they can't make them, then all right, their offense
maybe won't be as potent, but they're a great shooting team,
Like that's not something that you're ever gonna be able
to bank on. On the flip side, I do think
the Knicks offense will do fine in this matchup. Like
Brunson versus the Celtics this year gave him twenty seven
a night on almost sixty seven percent true shooting. He'll
get his He's too good not to. And I was
(16:59):
just raving about his floor as a scorer, his ability
to consistently get into the paint and then dazzle you
with his great shot making from Florida range with those
short jumpers, to get to the line at a good rate. Like,
because he is so consistent in getting to those spots
and because he has such great endurance as a scorer,
he is going to probably put up close to thirty
(17:20):
points per game in this series. The thing is Holiday
and White both do a really good job on him,
and they are going to make him work. This is
what Brunson said about a SAR after last series like
Brunson's gonna get his, but he gave props to a
SAR for making him work. A sar really really made
him work. That's what I think he's gonna run into
again in this series, and the efficiency just isn't gonna
(17:43):
come as easily. He's gonna have to work a lot
harder than the Celtics are going to have to work
on the opposite side of the ball. For Kat, I
think that he could have a pretty good offensive series.
I actually thought that he was great in their last matchup.
He was doing a really nice job of bullying switches
in the exact way that I like to see from
cat where he's catching the ball with good post position,
(18:05):
he's back to the basket, back down, get to his
hook shot, keep it simple. That was really effective. And
he can exploit Kpe in a couple spots in the
same way that KP can exploit him, given that they're
both slower footed big so as a popper he might
get some good looks out in transition. As a trailer,
he might get some good looks from deep, but still
he's gonna have to work harder than the Celtics. Offensive
(18:28):
pieces are vice versa when they target him just because,
like everybody involved in this equation, the perimeter defenders, the
interior defenders are significantly better for Boston and they don't
have those weak points defensively. So it's just really really
hard for me to see how the Knicks make this
like a super tight series because I think the Boston
is the better offensive team with more firepower, and I
(18:50):
think Boston is the way better defensive team. This was
a terrible matchup for the Knicks all year. They're really good,
but they don't have the flexibility and the versity needed
to really compete with Boston's offense and to provide any resistance.
So I think it's very possible that the Magic just
(19:11):
played the Celtics tougher than the Knicks will I'm going
Celtics in five. If this went six, I wouldn't be shocked,
but I'd be impressed. I'd be like, good for you,
New York, because I just think that they are going
to get ripped to shreds on the defensive end.
Speaker 1 (19:25):
I've also got Celtics in five. Yeah, I think Orlando's
and people may look at it and say, you know,
the Knicks have more firepower and punch and obviously the do,
but when we're talking about the playoffs, it comes much
more down to matchups. And Orlando has consistently been great
at defending Boston and I think that's more important. And
Boston is like literally like a They're a historically great
(19:48):
offense in terms of what they do and the shots
that they generate and how easy they make it look.
I'm I'm I'm with you, man. If the Celtics, if
the Knicks can push six, I'll be impressed them and
I'll consider it a doug And can let me ask
you something? Let me ask you something about the Knicks
fully healthy last year? Who poses more of a threat
(20:09):
to this Celtics team last year's group of this year's.
That's an interesting years, Sherdenstein. You have Robinson, you have Randall.
Like again, that's why I say fully healthy, but you know,
de Vincenzo is still there. Like I definitely prefer the depth.
I just don't know if it's a better matchup.
Speaker 4 (20:26):
Still, that's a really interesting question. I guess it kind
of depends on like is Julius Randall going to defend
like we saw him in this past series or like
the version of the Knicks got of him defensively, but
I do think that that was certainly a better defensive group,
especially in this specific matchup, there's more of an offensive
(20:46):
burden on Brunson. I think it would be a serious
long shot either way, but I would say that team
had a better chance at least of making this more
of a series on the defensive end. But they didn't
have Michel obviously, so it's not a significant difference in
either way in my opinion. And I do think like
(21:06):
this fundamental roster construction with Kat as your defensive anchor
as your center and Brunson being out there as such
a liability as a small guard in this matchup where
their mismatch attacking is so elite, like they are going
to exploit those guys so easily that I don't see
the path to how New York can even get better
(21:28):
than this Boston team without making major changes, Like until
this Boston team breaks up.
Speaker 1 (21:34):
Well, I was gonna say, like what if after Porzingis.
Speaker 4 (21:36):
Leaves, Well, then that's a different story. But still I
wouldn't feel good about them because like, even though I
think Porzingis is gonna have a really good series, it's
not like he is necessary for Boston to dominate, like
if he's still struggling shooting, like you were talking about
cool man, I'm going with Al Horford and he's going
to be getting the same great pick and pop looks
and now we're super switchable defensively, Like you're really not
(22:01):
gonna lose your key advantages even if a guy like
KP isn't out there on the floor, even though I
do think that he should be significantly significantly better in
this series than he was in the last. Good for
the Knicks, man, really good team, amazing first round series.
Boston is just a juggernaut and the Knicks are not
the team that is built to give them a hard time.
(22:30):
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Speaker 4 (25:10):
Let's talk about the one seed Cleveland Cavaliers taking on
the four seed Indiana Pacers. Logan. I am extremely excited
for this matchup, more so definitely than I am for
Celtics Knicks, because I think that this one should be
more competitive and interesting and specifically, these are just two
(25:31):
phenomenal offenses. These were the top two offenses in the
first round of the playoffs by offensive rating, So we
know that we're in for a shootout between these two teams.
So Logan, I want to start with the Calves. How
do they try to slow the pacers potent offense down?
And do you think they're capable of doing that?
Speaker 2 (25:51):
Oh?
Speaker 1 (25:51):
Yeah, definitely. I think the Calves are really well equipped
to slow down the Pacers offense. Now, that's what's so
interesting about this series, man, is I think Calvs have
the personnel, but like the Pacers can throw such a
potent punch on any given game. I really think a
lot of these individual games could come down to which
(26:15):
team shoots better from behind the arc or whose bench
performs better. A few of these games could be decided
by that. The reason that I'm so confident in the
Cavaliers being able to disrupt Indiana specifically because of their
front court tandem of Evan Mobley and Jared Allen, and
(26:35):
specifically the like number two and number three on most
given nights for Halliburton. Halliburton's partners in crime are Pascal
Siakam and Miles Turner, and I just think Allen and
Mobley are really good to turns for them. Now, look,
Siaka and Turner both got theirs in the regular season.
These are only two games, mind you, the numbers that
I'm referring to against Cleveland because the final two games
(26:56):
were basically like B teams for Cleveland in two games
versus the actual healthy Calves. Siakam put up twenty one
to eight and three and Turner gave you sixteen to
eight and one. I think to beat Cleveland, those guys
are gonna have to produce a little bit better than that.
But Allan and Mobley are great defensively, and I think
they can actually disrupt both of those guys. Mobiley can
(27:17):
guard in space on either of those guys. He's one
hell of a rim protector and Alan is one hell
of a rim protector too. So I think a lot
of the easy offense that Indiana is able to generate
Cleveland can really throw a wrench into. If it's if
it is Siakham and Turner individually in these matchups, or
if it's a guy like Obi Toppen, who gave them
really good minutes last round, I think the Caves can
do a really good job of taking some of those
(27:38):
shots away. And that's where I really look at at
Mobiley is the difference maker and X factor in this series.
Carson like offensively and defensively. Man, I don't look at
a player on Indiana being able to hold him. I
think he's gonna dominate on the glass. I think he's
gonna wreck the game defensively, and I don't think the
Pacers have a good answer for him offense. And so
(28:03):
this is a really fascinating series, man. But I think
Cleveland is probably more well equipped to slow down Indiana,
I'd say, than anybody else in the field, save in
the East, save Boston, because I think Boston's just got
such a wealth of defenders that they can go to.
But if there's anybody else that I believe in, it's
definitely Cleveland. Man. I think they're gonna make life. I
(28:25):
think they're gonna make life harder on Indiana than anybody
has in the past two years.
Speaker 4 (28:30):
It is definitely hard to slow this Pacers offense down
no matter what, though, Like that's a real challenge for anybody,
and they've just been playing phenomenal basketball for a really
extended stretch. Now they are forty five and nineteen. Since
they're slow start to the season, they've been a top
seven offense in that span, and obviously we just saw
them absolutely shred the Bucks defense. I do think that
(28:53):
Cleveland is significantly better equipped to deal with the Pacers
on the defensive end, because everything's arts with the Pacers offense,
with their pick and roll attack, and can you do
anything to keep them remotely in check. The Bucks were
not capable of that, especially when brook Lopez was on
the floor, because he was a slow footed, true drop
big and they were just able to exploit him out
(29:14):
in space and manufacture a bunch of great looks from
beyond the arc. The ideal pick and roll coverage against
the Pacers is to be able to switch everything, because
then you can force Hallie to try to beat you
as a score in isolation where he's not as great
as he is when he's just picking a part drop
coverage and he's consistently finding the bigs popping and he's
(29:36):
getting to his floater and his pull up three. He's
so so comfortable doing all of that, and you're taking
away the pick and pop looks. For Miles Turner especially,
but also for Siakaman. Those guys are great jump shooting bigs,
especially Turner like that is his bread and butter offensively,
if you can force them to beat a switch against
somebody who's actually capable defending, especially for Turner, like that
(29:58):
is a much more effective counter to him defensively. Seakham
is a great mismatch attacker, so you have to be
able to get a decent body on him for that
to be functional. So I would start putting Max Strus
on Hallie. I think that this is probably a series
in which Struce is starting again over DeAndre Hunter, although
I can see the case for starting Hunter because then,
(30:20):
like there's basically no advantage off switches for the Pacers,
because if Hunter is switching on to Siakam, well he
can really defend in that matchup if he's switching on
a Turner like this is a six to eight forward
with really good tools. But Struce, I think can still
do a decent enough job on those bigger guys off
of switches, and I do think he's more equipped to
(30:42):
deal with a guard like Halle on a possession to
possession basis. So that's where I would start, and the
really key component for Cleveland executing this scheme defensively, is
that Evan Mobley and Jared Allen are really good switching bigs.
They are both very comfortable guard out in space. Especially
Mobili is one of the best bigs in basketball guarding
(31:05):
in space. I will say, we just saw in the
last game that Hallie played him toasting Yannis off the
bounce off of switches, and although Yannis has certainly regressed defensively,
that's still one of the more high end defensive bigs
guarding out in space in the NBA. But I think
that you're always better off trying to make Hallie beat
(31:26):
a big, good athlete one on one then again letting
him pick you apart out of drop. And I think
it's gonna be really, really important that Halle gets his
three ball going because he can get by you. But
as we've talked about, he's not always super confident in
his ability to finish in traffic. He's going to look
to facilitate if he does get by you, and he's
(31:47):
gonna create good shots for others. But with a guy
who can move his feet like mobilely in space, he
might try to get him to give him a little
bit more of that cushion and then see if he
can hunt the step back three, see if he can
really get that pull up Threegoing that to me is
what I would expect Halle to be hunting, and he's
got to shoot better than he did last series for
that to be really effective. So I definitely think that
(32:09):
they have a better counter for the Pacers pick and
roll attack than the Bucks did by far, because they
can actually switch everything with their best personnel, whereas like
the Bucks had to go to Bobby Ports, they had
to go to kind of their bench group to be
able to execute that even functionally, and still they didn't
have as good personnel as the Cavs do. The one
(32:29):
week point for Cleveland defensively is Darius Garland. In any matchup,
but especially if you are running a very switch heavy scheme,
I think you have to put him on Andrew Nemhard,
And I think that when Nemhard is running pick and roll,
you're not switching everything and you're playing drop and you
have Garland late switch to get out to the three
(32:51):
point line if the Big pops, and then you're potentially
gonna have to like force the Big to beat Garland
from the perimeter or if they just reset and they
try to get the big post position, then you may
have to double and scramble, try to switch back really quickly,
like Garland is going to present problems for them defensively
no matter what. In my goal is just to hide
(33:11):
him as much as possible and not immediately concede a
switch to the Bigs because it's just too much of
a size advantage, and especially Seakham, he's so good at
exploiting that. So Cleveland they've got excellent backline defenders with
their two bigs. But the biggest key against Indiana is
containing the ball to begin with, because the drive and
(33:32):
kick game, especially with Halle, like that's when they're at
their best, making the extra pass, finding open shooters, moving
without the ball, and moving the ball, and you have
to not concede those outright mismatches as much as possible,
if that is for Halle out on the perimeter or
if that is for Seakam off a switch. I think
Cleveland can do a pretty good job at executing those
(33:54):
two objectives. And you talked about the Pacers front court
and who they are going to be dealing with as
their matchups, Like I really think Siakam is going to
have to do most of his work in this series,
either in transition or off of switches, because I think
he's got a really difficult individual matchup in Evan Mobley.
I think Mobley's gonna do a great job on him
when they're just matched up straight up.
Speaker 1 (34:15):
I just wouldn't attack Evan Mobley. I mean, if you're
a defensive player of the Year, I think any switch
you get on him, I'm passing the ball just like
that's not even.
Speaker 4 (34:22):
A even for Halle. You're not trying to get by him.
Speaker 1 (34:24):
I's swatting that shit. I don't know if Halle's like
I know, Halle's got a good step back and release,
but with that set jumper, I just wonder if he's
gonna have enough time to get it over those long
arms and mobile and Mobley's a really great defender in space.
So but Halle is the guy that I look at
for Indiana. Obviously, Halliburton's the start of the team. He's
the guy that's gonna have to go above and beyond
in this series to make it happen, because I do
(34:45):
think he has the key matchup on the other end
that he can exploit, and that is Darius Garland in
single coverage, and that's who I'm attacking if I'm Indiana,
and that's who I'm attacking if I'm Boston. If we're
looking forward to the conference finals, Garland is the guy
that I'm going at repeatedly, over and over again. And
that's why I think it's important that Hallie stays aggressive
(35:06):
in this matchup, hunts his shot continuously, like I don't
know how easy it's gonna be for anybody else. And
Indiana is a really good system. They're good at relocating
off ball and like you said, the driving kick game,
the ball movement, it all moves in tandem. But everybody
else is a really good defender on Cleveland save Mitchell
and Garland. And that's why I'm attacking both of those guys.
(35:26):
But Halliburton is the guy to me that can get
to those step back jumpers, that can get to those
runners in the lane, that little intermediate mid range area.
He's the guy that I trust the most to create
and generate his own looks in this series. And I
don't know, man, like I think for the Pacers to
win this series, dude, I think that the Pacers get
super hot shooting from behind the arc. I think you
(35:49):
need all hands on deck. I'm talking them hard, Siakam Turner,
flame throwing behind the arc, Nie Smith, Mathern, everybody, Ben Sheppard,
nobody's missing. And I think Halliburton needs to give you Like,
is like twenty seven too ridiculous of a number. I
think it's gonna have to be really a big number,
really high for Halle to do. I'm at least saying
(36:10):
bare minimum twenty five plus wow, at the minimum for
the Pacers to win this series from Halle, And I
think that's a lot to ask.
Speaker 4 (36:18):
I do think he absolutely has to be better as
a shooter and scorer in this series. Like he was
phenomenal as a playmaker creating for others in Round one
because again he was just exploiting Brooke over and over again.
He was doing a nice job of beating switches with
his quickness not to score, but to playmake. All that
stuff was great. But with how much I expect Cleveland
(36:41):
to switch, and with how capable their bigs are guarding
in space, like Halle is going to have to be
more of a consistent scoring presence, and personally, I would
definitely be more inclined to try to get that Jared
Allen switch than the Mobile switch. Even though Allen is
good guarding in space, he not as great as Mobile is.
(37:02):
So I do think that Hallie is the key player
for the Pacers in this series. I do think that
they're gonna get theirs offensively, But like you said, I
think that the Calves are gonna be even harder to stop.
So how do you feel about the other side of
the ball. How can Indiana's defense try to slow the
Calves down? And is that possible?
Speaker 1 (37:24):
No, I don't think it is. I think this is
gonna be too overwhelming for Indiana. Really, it is because
of the drive and kick game for Cleveland in this aspect.
To me, Cleveland's offense is so good. All the contributors
play so together like one. We can just start with
(37:45):
the individuals. Mitchell and Garland are a handful to deal
with in isolation. By themselves, Garland's one of the quickest
guards in basketball. If his pull up three is going,
if his floater is going like He's just a tough
matchup to deal with individually. Mitchell, by himself, we all
know a hot he can get. He gets to the
rim effortlessly, and when his pull up three is going.
(38:07):
He's super hard to stop. So those guys are problems period.
Then you get to Evan Mobley, and Mobley is a
handful to deal with now in single coverage because, like
he just to me, has such distinct athletic advantages against
Indiana's biggs. I don't know how they slow him down.
I think he's quicker footed off the dribble than both
of them. I think he could get by Siakam and
(38:29):
Turner pretty reliably. But he's also longer and more athletic
than both of those guys, where I think he's gonna
win box outs and get to easy looks off putbacks
and on the offensive glass, and I think he's just
gonna be able to get by them and over the
top of them for shots at the rim. Now he
can space the floor two, which is gonna drag Siakam
or Turner away for the rim and open up everything
(38:50):
else for everybody in the middle. But the biggest problem
to me, Carson is the collective. It's all the shooting
that Cleveland has together, and it's the ability for all
of these guys after the advantage is created to attack
closeouts and get into the lane that then puts everybody
in rotation and open. That opens up stuff on the
back end, if that's catching shooters or if that's guys
(39:12):
in the dunker spots, because I don't like Indiana's rim
protection either, where I could see Allen and Mobley feasting
really efficiently under the rim with easy opportunities. And again,
it's not just Mitchell and Garland. It's Tied Jerome off
the bench, who can manufacture you some shots. It's Max
Struce giving you some supplementary ball handling, It's DeAndre Hunter
giving you the tertiary ball handling. Like it's everybody that
(39:35):
can kill you on this team. And Cleveland's been the
best offense in basketball. That's the point I don't want
to undersell. It's like Indiana, I think can go blow
for blow, can go buck for buck for most of
the game. But Cleveland has the offense that I trust more,
and they got the defense that I trust more. That's
a huge imperative point of this. But I just do
trust Cleveland's offense to churn it out, to keep going
(39:57):
and never stop and h they're just one of the
toughest offenses to stop in the in the NBA. Man,
it's really as simple as that.
Speaker 4 (40:05):
They are statistically one of the greatest offenses that we've
ever seen. They were a top ten relative offense in
league history this season. Then they went out and put
forth the single highest offensive rating we have ever seen
in a playoff series. They are one of the greatest
pick and roll attacks that we have ever seen. So
they are the best offensive basketball and it's going to
(40:25):
be a major, major challenge for the Pacers to offer
any resistance. I do want to give credit to Indiana
for their improvement on the defensive end this year, where
they've gone from a group that was I think twenty
fourth in defensive rating last year to being really solid
this year. And they have good point of attack defenders
like Andrew Memhard. Is a solid matchup for Darius Garland.
(40:47):
Smiths gonna presure the ball. Yeah, Nie Smith is solid too,
but Memhard, he's quick, he's feisty. I'm just not sure
how uncomfortable he can actually make Darius Garland because he
doesn't have that elite size in length. Nie Smith, I
also think, is a decent matchup on Mitchell, but he's
not quite quick enough for me to love him in
(41:07):
that matchup against a guard. As explosive as Donovan Mitchell.
And when you think about what Indiana does at a
high level defensively, it's really their ability to pressure the ball.
They bring more ball pressure than basically any other defense
in basketball. Maybe Minnesota brings more. Cleveland might be the
best equipped offense to beat that, though, Like their entire
(41:28):
offense is captained by two phenomenal ball handling guards who
have great quickness, so they're just not going to be
bothered by that ball pressure. And now maybe they're even
beating you down Courton. Now they're able to get into
some early offense, and then they've got another guard and
ty Jerome, who can come in and lead the show
and is also extremely extremely potent offensively. So they were
(41:49):
a phenomenal offense versus the press this year. I just
don't think that's going to bother them, and I just
really don't see Indiana being able to contain those two
guards much at all. And that kick starts everything for
the Calves offense because they have two of the best
offensive guards and two of the best pick and roll
creators in basketball. And when they are consistently getting downhill,
(42:11):
they're obviously going to fry you as pull up shooters
as well, especially Garland, but then they're able to really
create phenomenal three point looks for excellent shooters all around them.
The Calves are one of, if not the best cutting
team in basketball, with great play finishing big. So, like,
if the guards are going to be comfortable, the Calves
(42:31):
offense is going to be dominant. And I think the
guards are going to be comfortable in this matchup because
this offense is just special, man. Like I mentioned, elite
shooting all around. The Pacers create a lot of good
looks from three, and they have a lot of good shooters,
but it's on another level with the Calves. They were
top two and threes made, and they were top two
and three point percenters this year, and in their first
(42:51):
round series they just made nineteen threes per game and
shot forty four percent from deep, and like, yeah, that's
a crazy shooting series. But when you have Garland Mitchell
in an improved mobile and Max Struz who is a weapon,
and DeAndre Hunter who's a forty percent three point shooter,
and Ty Jerome who's an elite three point shooter, I
don't think Sam Marrow plays a ton in this series,
but he's an elite shooter. Dean Wade is a good shooter. Like,
(43:12):
they just have so many weapons. They do have even
more offensive firepower. They do have even more depth, Like
I think that favors Cleveland. That's a rare thing for
Indiana to not have the depth advantage. But as good
as their depth is, like even Cleveland's quote unquote bench
units are still going to include multiple elite basketball players
(43:34):
because of their minute stagger. You're always going to have
one of the great guards in one of the great
bigs on the floor, and then their bench players are
really really good. They have one of the best and
deepest offensive supporting casts that we've seen in a long time.
So if I'm Kenny Atkinson, I would count on my
top seven specifically a little bit more than he has,
(43:54):
Like even last series, he was going straight up ten deep.
There's a couple guys who I'm not as inclined to
play out much in this series, like Merrill because of
his defensive limitations, like Okoro because I don't trust his
offense as much. But their top seven is phenomenal, Like
I would lean even more into Hunter and Strus just
eating up those minutes on the wings because I think
(44:14):
that they are so good really on both sides of
the ball. And I think that Kenny can just play
his best guys a little more than usual, Like he's
been playing his best players thirty minutes per game and
to end this year and going ten deep consistently, Like
this is a series where he can play his best
guys thirty four or thirty six minutes a game and
he can still go eight deep with awesome basketball players.
(44:34):
And I just think that they're gonna win the minutes
for the most part with all of their different lineup combinations,
because they have so many different great lineup combinations. Like
you said it, man, there's just a lot of little
advantages that Cleveland has that amount to them being pretty
clearly the better basketball team. Like I trust the offense
even a little bit more.
Speaker 1 (44:55):
All their players are so versatile too, man, like in yeah,
there's not a lot of one dimensional players in Cleveland.
Like if you can shoot, the guy can normally play
make a little bit or attack a close out right
like Ty Jerome and Struce. That's what I'm saying, Like
even if they're not creating the initial action on ball,
like if they're attacking a close out, both of those
(45:17):
guys are smart enough and good enough skill wise, they're
either gonna get to a good look or they're gonna
dump it off to a big or you know, if
it's mobile now, like Cleveland really is, like pick your poison, man,
do you want us to have an easy look in
the lane or do you want us to have an
easy look from three? Because we're gonna generate one or
the other. It's Cleveland's damn good man like they are.
(45:39):
And I'm telling you, I know we've said this, but
if Boston has another down series, I really think they're
vulnerable like Boston. Again, let me be clear about that,
because I don't want to to get misconstrued. I think
Boston has to play really below the level that we
expect them. Like, but if that series goes six or seven,
the Celtics series, I think they're susceptible and the Calves
(46:00):
are that good.
Speaker 4 (46:01):
Oh yeah, Boston's gotta be sharp offensively because Cleveland's offense
is just gonna be dominant in any matchup. I mean,
it's just an insane combination of elite creation and elite
play finishing, both in terms of shooting and at the rim.
So I think that they have the better offensive personnel,
they have more star power, they're deeper, they have the
better defensive personnel, They're better on the boards. They were
(46:25):
twelveth in rebound rate, the Pacers were twenty eighth. Cleveland's
gonna go double big. A lot part of the Pacers
being so low, I think is they normally just really
don't crash the offensive glass. But still Cleveland is the
better rebounding team. They're the better team on both sides.
And if I had to identify a key player for them,
I guess I'll go with two. I think it's the Bigs.
(46:47):
I think that they really set the tone for Cleveland
in a number of ways in this series. Like I
do think they really have to dictate the glass because
that should be an advantage for Cleveland in this matchup,
But they weren't a great defensive rebounding team down the
stretch of this season, so they've got to win on
the glass. The Bigs are crucial to your entire defensive
game plan because they have to really defend well on switches.
(47:09):
I'm saying their defensive game plan. I don't know what
they're gonna do. I'm certainly expecting them to be switched
heavy in this matchup. And then I think that Mobile
is really important offensively because he's got to keep stepping
into and hitting threes, and he's got to be comfortable
attacking mismatches when he gets them. I have faith in
the Calves checking all of those boxes, and like I
want to be clear, I'm saying the Calves are better
(47:30):
in all these areas. I don't expect the Pacers to
get blown out in a single game in this series. Like,
I just think their offensive floor is so so high
and their depth is still so good. They're just so
reliably great, especially offensively. I think we're in for an
awesome six game series. But it would be disappointing for
(47:52):
the Calves if they lost this. Like, Indiana's really good.
I do think they're the third best team in the East.
Speaker 1 (47:56):
I mean, it would be a monumental disappointment. It would
be a meltdown, is what I would consider it. Like,
Indiana is a really good team. I mean it would
be crazy for them. Back to back Eastern Conference Finals
appearances like this.
Speaker 4 (48:08):
So good for the Halley agendas. Oh my god, we'd
be eating phenomenal. We'd be feasting.
Speaker 1 (48:12):
But I think Cleveland's way better. And like you said,
I am gonna take this to be a shorter series
because of my faith in Cleveland. But I think all
of these games are gonna be really close into the
fourth quarter. So I'm gonna take And I'm disappointed because
I wanted to be a little bit spicier with either
of these predictions. But I'm gonna take the Calves in five.
Speaker 4 (48:32):
Wow. Wow, that's interesting. It's hard for me to pick
anybody to beat Indiana that quickly. I don't know. Their
offense is just so great that, like, even though they
lost to Boston in a sweep last year, all of
those games were so close and they didn't have Halle
for two of them, even like I think is more
good too.
Speaker 1 (48:52):
This is more of a respect thing for Cleveland.
Speaker 4 (48:54):
I love it. Listen, man, I love Calves respect. I
think it's insane that a team won sixty four games
and at a top twenty NET rating and a history
and everybody wants to go out there and call them
the twenty fifteen Hawks or slander them in whatever way.
Cleveland is phenomenal. They have been a part of a
tier that is well above everybody else in basketball. End
to end this year with just Boston and OKC, and
(49:14):
I'm very very excited to see what they do in
this series. But I'm also excited to see what the
Pacers do because I love them and I think these
are two great offensive teams, which means we're gonna have
a lot of really really fun games in this series.
There you have it, folks, our previews, our predictions, our
keys for these two incoming Eastern Conference semifinals. So excited
(49:36):
for both of these matchups, and very excited to see
what is coming next in the West, which we will
know for sure over these next couple of days. We've
got Rockets Warriors Game six tonight. We will be live
after that. Then we've got Clippers Nuggets Game seven tomorrow.
We will be live after that. If you don't already know,
we've been live every single night of the postseason so
far after the games wrap up, given our takes YAP
(49:58):
and away, so you can always come join us there
for the postgame live stream. You can also catch all
those episodes later and on our YouTube channel, you can
see all of our video essays and video breakdowns that
we do where we go more in depth on a
specific topic. You can also listen to the shows across
all audio platforms, and you can follow us across social TikTok,
Instagram at nerd sessh, Twitter at nerd underscore Sesh to
(50:19):
see clips from the show, graphics from the show, and
all of our short form trivia content. So with that,
as always appreciate you guys. I've been Carson Breber, I
have been loading Camden and this was nerd Sash
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