Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume all right, Olkan hoops today, you're at the
volume heavy Wednesday, everybody. I hope all the guys are
having a great week on a Jampacks show for you guys. Today,
(00:21):
we're gonna hit a couple of games from last night,
as Lebron James makes his debut against the Utah Jazz.
It was a little sloppy for about two and a
half quarters. We'll dig into the reasons why, but we
had a Luca explosion down the third quarter and a
Lebron and Austin explosion to start the fourth quarter that
blew that game open as the Lakers got a blowout
win against the Utah Jazz. After that, the Orlando Magic,
(00:42):
after starting just one and four this season, are seven
and three in their last ten after logging a big
win at home last night against a red hot Warriors
team that had just won three games in a row,
overcoming sixty seven combined points from Jimmy Butler and Steph Curry.
A lot of encouraging signs coming from the Orlando Magic
offense that we'll be digging digging into there.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Also.
Speaker 1 (01:04):
Thirdly, today it will hit this after the Lakers segment,
but I saw a take going around on Twitter yesterday
from Bill Simmons regarding the idea that the Draymond suspension
in Game five of the twenty sixteen NBA Finals is
the biggest sliding doors moment in recent NBA history. I
want to dig into several reasons why that is not
(01:26):
the case. So lots of stuff to get into today.
You guys know the Joe before we get started. Subscribe
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(01:47):
more content throughout the season. In the last, but not least,
if you guys want to get mail bag questions into
our Friday mail bag this week, make sure you drop
them in our full episodes on YouTube. Right mail bag colon,
drop your question, We'll get to them on Fridays. The
remainder of the season. Our next playback stream will be
Friday night for the Denver Nuggets on the road against
the Houston Rockets. A matchup between what I think are
(02:09):
currently the second and third best teams in the NBA.
Gonna be really fun one to dig in to. Hope
you guys will come hang out with us on Friday night.
All right, let's talk some basketball, so ugly basketball between
the Lakers and the Jazz for about two and a
half quarters, and here I want to shout out Will
Hardy and the Utah Jazz. They ran a lot of
(02:30):
organized offense last night, meaning they got the ball at
the floor and they didn't just attack matchups or try
to play one on one. They ran a lot of screening, action, interchanges,
ball and player movement, and they looked great in doing so.
I was sincerely impressed as a team as how they
sprinted in and out of their cuts, how they sprinted
it in out of their screens, How they always seem
to like identify when the Lakers would make a mistake
(02:51):
and hit that gap with a pass or with a
quick drive or something along those lines. They played really
good basketball, and the Lakers struggled to guard their screening action.
One of the issues they were having early in the
game was giving up easy threes on soft switches. This
was an issue that we talked about a lot last
year with the Lakers, where essentially, you have a screen
and the guy who's guarding the screener is going to
(03:14):
switch on to the person coming off the screen right,
But if you're standing back instead of meeting that offensive
player with physicality or ball pressure on the other side
of the screen, they can settle into some easy threes there.
And they gave up several easy threes early in the
game that allowed some of Utah's perimeter players to get
into rhythm. Keante George in particular got going with his
(03:36):
pull up jump shot and as a result, he started
to hit some more of the contested ones. Later in
the game. Lori Markinen did a ton of damage to
them as a team. The Jazz did a ton of
damage to them, giving up slips out of layup, so
like they would run up in screen and then as
soon as they hit the defender that would inflict the switch.
But as soon as that switch would happen, that defender
would then be on the top side, so then he
(03:57):
would just slip to the basket and the Jazz would
hit that guy for a layup. There were also several
examples of them just botching switches. They lost Lori market
In in a ghost screen three in the second half
where he just ran up the screen and then slipped
out of it. Both guys lingered with the ball, easy
three for Lori market and a lot of just like mistakes,
a lot of defensive breakdowns for the Lakers as the
Jazz were running all of their action. However, about halfway
(04:21):
through the third quarter, they cleaned that up. They were
able to start getting stops and they were able to
pull away from there with the strength of their offense.
As a matter of fact, it is actually a crazy stat.
The Lakers conceded twenty seven points to the Jazz on cuts, handoffs,
and off ball screening actions in the first three quarters
of the game. They gave up zero on all three
(04:43):
of those categories in the fourth quarter when they blew
the game open. And I talked about this during the stream.
Those of you guys were hanging out with us on
playback last night. They let their shooters like Sabe m
Kailou and Kante George in particular, get a rhythm with
open shots early in the game, but from and they
are like there's a lot of tough shot making, like
Cante George hit some really tough mid range jump shots
(05:05):
off the bounce. Lorii Marken had had some tough buckets
where he was like fighting through physicality and finishing at
the rim. I talked about this on the stream last night,
but that was never gonna be what would beat.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
The Lakers last night.
Speaker 1 (05:16):
It would be a combination of that plus giving up
a bunch of easy layups and wide open threes through
defensive breakdowns that could potentially cost you a game like that.
It's a simple concept. You don't beat teams one hundred
and forty to zero. That's not how basketball works. You're
gonna give up some points. These players are too good.
They're gonna make plays. The key is you limit the
(05:38):
easy ones, make them live on the hard ones, and
you're probably gonna get enough stops to win the game.
And by the way, the Lakers completely shut off all
the easy stuff during that second half run. There was
a forty three to nineteen run. It basically started on
this bizarre play where Luca tried to kind of dribble
through a triple team going up the court and a
(05:58):
Kyle Anderson came from by swiped the ball away from
Luca and it got called for a foul. Luca went
down in a heap, but Luca was flopping, so they
go to the replay. Will Hardy two really smart challenges
got one on a clean strip of Lebron in the
first half, and they got this one on Luca in
the middle third quarter. Both challenges successful. It gets overturned,
but it like seemingly woke Luca up, because from that
(06:21):
moment forward from the challenge, it was eighty eight to
eighty seven, the Jazz had a lead. From that moment
forward to end the third quarter, Luca goes on this
crazy run where he's being super physically aggressive towards the basket,
starts generating great shots every single time down the Lakers
engaged defensively at that point, they flip it into a
little bit of a run and then Austin and Lebron
(06:42):
came in to start the fourth quarter and just completely
blew the game open. But again, that's a thirteen point
five minute stretch there from when the from when Luca
got that overturned challenge all the way to the middle
of the fourth quarter when the Lakers went up by
twenty three points. There is a forty three to nineteen run,
(07:03):
forty three to nineteen spanning the end of the third
in the first half of the fourth quarter, a little
over a quarter right thirteen and a half minutes, and
they allowed just nineteen points. Ultimately, it's their defense, and
we're gonna talk about this a little bit more later
on in the segment, but the Lakers have been very
much a short burst timely go on a run type
of defense rather than a large sample every possession type
(07:26):
of defense, and it's helping them win games. They shut
down the Jazz for thirteen and a half minutes, they
blow the game open with their offense. Do it by
shutting down those defensive breakdowns, the simple easy stuff they
were conceding by making mistakes and screening actions. Forced Utah
to live on tough shots. Yeah, there's some tough ones
in there. Caante hit like a ridiculous off the dribble
jump shot on the left base line over Austin Reeves. Again,
(07:48):
that's not how you're gonna lose a game like that.
You're gonna lose it by giving up easy layups and
threes right. That Austin and Lebron lineup that was super
deadly over the years previous to this exploded again last night.
They played twenty one possessions without Luca against the Jazz
last night. Cleaning the Glass clocked them at a one
(08:08):
to sixty two offensive rating in those twenty one possessions
in a one to oh five defensive rating, a plus
fifty seven net pace in that small sample with Luca
or with Lebron and Austin on the floor with Luca off,
they blew the game open and the Lakers improved to
eleven and four. This is what we got to talk about.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
Lebron.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
I thought he did just a wonderful job of inserting
himself into the flow of things without disrupting the existing rhythm.
This was clearly demonstrated in the usage percentages if you looked.
So obviously comically small sample, but in last night's game,
the usage rate came out to Luca at thirty six percent.
That's right around where you want him in the mid thirties, right,
(08:50):
Austin at twenty eight percent, right in the high twenties,
right where you want him, and Lebron down at like
fourteen and a half percent. Lebron did not come in
and co op the offense, especially in the first half.
He played almost entirely off the ball. There were a
handful of post ups. Lebron did a lot of work
in the post in this game, and then he was aggressive,
especially as a playmaker in that early fourth quarter stretch,
(09:10):
running action and making reads. But for the most part
in the game, he did not try to force his
way into the action. He very much played as a
satellite player and that allowed Luca and Austin to maintain
their rhythm. Austin got twenty six points, Luca got thirty
seven points. Neither of those two guys looked disrupted at all.
(09:32):
Lebron made a concerted effort to play through them, especially
in that first half, making quick swing passes in the
first half is a lot of like just a couple
of transition pushes here, you know, attacking a close out
with a three point shot off the dribble or something
like that. Very little in the way of like self creation.
A few post ups, but that was it. He was
very much allowing the team to play their existing kind
(09:54):
of rhythm and flow on offense, and this is where
the situation is very different than what happened last year.
If you guys remember what happened last year in February,
both Anthony Davis and Luca were injured at the time
of the trade, right, And so as a result of that,
Lebron and Austin kind of had their own thing going on.
When Luca eventually decided to come back, and Lebron at
that point was playing at a top three, top four
(10:17):
level in the NBA. He was averaging damn near a
thirty point triple double in that sixteen game span. There
kind of surrounding the trade deadline on both ends, right,
So like they had their own thing going and it
was very difficult because then you're trying to implement Luca,
who by any measure, is very much an on ball
player that you need to put the ball in his hands.
(10:38):
I don't mean that as an insult. He's literally one
of the very best on ball players that I've ever seen.
Like you need to give him the basketball, right, But
it was a little bit more complicated. It did disrupt
some of their offensive rhythm. They toasted a couple of
games against bad teams early in that stretch, against Utah
and against Charlotte, and it was like a lot of
just the clunkiness of having an existing rhythm for Lebron
(11:00):
and who was playing like literally better than the like
than the vast majority of stars in the NBA at
that point in time, and trying to incorporate this very
much on ball type of player. Lebron in many ways,
versatility is his strength. He's been referred to as one
of the great Swiss army knives in NBA history, right,
So like for Lebron in this situation where Luca and
(11:20):
Austin already have such great rhythm, for Lebron to be like, oh,
you want me to play as like a guy that
operates off the ball, as like a screener, cutter, spot
up player, transition weapon, the occasional post up as a
second side creator alongside units that are featuring Austin or
featuring Luca. Like that is right up Lebron's alley. That
(11:41):
fits his skill set perfectly. According to Synergy, he ran
just just twelve self created possessions all game, six pick
and rolls, two ISOs, and four post ups, and he
was surgically efficient. He generated fifteen points on them, one
point twenty five points per possession, but it was very
picky about when he decided to be aggressive, especially when
(12:02):
all three stars were on the floor. He basically played
entirely through Luca and Austin. I just thought he did
an excellent job of letting the game come to him
and easing his way into the offense without disrupting things.
Then he has this unbelievable fourth quarter stretch where he
just picks the Jazz apart with his passing. He finished
the game with twelve assists. And one of the things
(12:25):
that stood out to me in a big way last
night was a casual reminder of just how good of
a read and react player Lebron is, because every single
time he did anything with the basketball, the team just
utah just reacted to him by sending multiple defenders, and
he just made simple reads. Like he's posting up on
the left block and he spins off and throws a
(12:46):
lob to deandraon a identical play mirror image play to
that Luca Lobb to Jackson that happened about a week prior.
I can't remember who they were playing, but it was
a very similar type of play. A lot of teams
when they're dealing with a really difficult player to guard
in the post. What they'll do is they'll play the
high side with the on ball defender, meaning take away
the middle, so they'll essentially try to force the player
(13:08):
to spin to the baseline, where they then offer help
off of the dunker spot because most guys in that
situation aren't you know, high IQ enough anticipatory passers to
be able to identify the read in that situation, and
they'll just dribble into a mess and turn it over
or just have to bail out and throw some bad
kickout pass to guy thirty five feet from the rim,
not Luca and Lebron on the Luca lob de Jackson,
(13:32):
he's spun off of that high side wall off to
try to force him towards the baseline. Knew the big
man was stepping over immediately through the lob to Jackson,
and he dunked it. Lebron had an identical play to
DeAndre Ayton in this game where he's posting on the
left block, spins baseline. Kevin Love immediately steps over as
part of that coverage to help outside the block, essentially
(13:53):
almost like strongside zoning, coming over as Lebron spins and
Lebron just immediately throws the lob to Deandreon and dunks it.
These are reads. Lebron is just making reads, which is
what he is. One of the things he's better than
most players in the entire NBA at like, Oh, he's
posting up on the right block and DeAndre Ayton's standing
wide open around the semi circle. He just throws it
(14:15):
to him. He makes a little short jump shot. That's
a simple read.
Speaker 2 (14:19):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
He's attacking middle off of an offensive rebound and Jake
Laavia is being helped off of on the right wing.
Easy kick out to Jake Lavia, knock down a three.
Speaker 2 (14:27):
Oh.
Speaker 1 (14:28):
He runs like a little ball screen with aighton that
the Jazz are icing and funneling him towards the sideline.
He attacks down along the sideline to the baseline. Both
defenders kind of congregate around Lebron.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
Easy little no.
Speaker 1 (14:40):
Look drop off to eighton another little soft dunk from
Aytan Oh. He's posting on the right block in the
second half and Keyante George is ball watching, so Jake
Laravia can cut along the baseline. Lebron just hit him.
Jake Loravia dunks it. It's all just simple reads. Out
of action, and when you have the type of aggregate
(15:00):
ball handling, playmaking and finishing talent that the Lakers have,
there's just a lot of opportunities like that that you
need high level playmakers to play to pay off. And
adding Lebron to the mix is is just gonna make
life so much easier.
Speaker 2 (15:14):
There.
Speaker 1 (15:14):
Another big element that Lebron brought brought to the Lakers
last night was just his transition attack. This is something
the Lakers don't really have. They'll get out and transition
with timely push aheads and stuff like that, but what
they don't have is just like a freaky downhill transition athlete,
and Lebron brings that. He was hitting these gaps whenever
he'd see him with these aggressive drives and he either
(15:36):
draw fall ory, generate an open look on a kickout
pass in the second half, a lot of playmaking and
transition where he get the ball up the floor and
all the guys would react to him and he'd drop
it off to DeAndre Ayton for a trailing dunk, or
he drop it off to Austin for a trailing layup.
Just ultimately, Lebron at his core is just an extremely
(15:57):
high level read and react player that can dribble, shoot
and pass, and so he ties everything together for the
Lakers on that end of the floor while also providing
his own pop with those transition attacks, with the second
side creation on the units when one of Luca or
Austin are on the floor, which those are units that
those guys used to have to carry by themselves. Now
Lebron brings the second side creation element there and once
(16:20):
again did it all without disrupting Luca in Austin's rhythm.
The Lakers logged a offensive rating of one hundred and
thirty four last night when Lebron James was on the floor.
That was the best out of all of the Big
Three for the Lakers, and it's because he's the ultimate
connective piece for an already elite offense. Now, looking at
(16:42):
the defense, I don't want to blame Lebron here solely
because the whole team was bad on that end for
two and a half quarters. And like for instance, it
was one of Luca's worst defensive games of the season.
He was getting cooked in screening actions, making mistakes. He
was really struggling with Fiema Kailu as a spot at players.
He got him with a couple of jab steps, one
for a three, one for a driving lefty dunk. But
(17:03):
Lebron also wasn't great on defense in that stretch of
the game. He looked like he was a step late
on both his defensive reads and in his defensive rotations,
like actually like the just a little bit slow getting
over mentally, but also a little slow getting over physically.
There were three plays in the game where he made
low man rotations and was just a step slow and
(17:24):
didn't get a block, but was like there as someone
else was laying the ball up. But again, the whole team,
including Luca and Lebron, they all locked in when they
needed to in that stretch spanning that forty three to
nineteen run, spanning the end of the third in the
early fourth quarter, and all of them were able to
kind of get the stops that they needed. And ultimately,
I think Lebron's going to get that stuff back when
(17:46):
he gets his conditioning. Those physical rotations will be a
little faster when the speed of the game, when he
catches up to that mentally, he'll be a little bit
faster making some of those reads. Ultimately, I think Lebron's
going to be able to help this team defensively a
lot in the big picture, even though the entire team
wasn't good last night.
Speaker 2 (18:05):
For the most part, this team.
Speaker 1 (18:06):
To this point in the season, at eleven and fourth
or fifteen games, it's been very much like a we
look bad on defense for the long stretches, but then
we lock in for short bursts and we go on
runs that win games type of defense. That's been the
type of team that they've been, and they've that's shown
in the metrics because they've had stretches where they've looked
really bad on defense, but then they're seventeenth in defensive
(18:29):
rating to start the season on a pretty tough schedule,
and they've had stretches where they've been very good on
defense against very good offenses like that was a Milwaukee
team that's been causing a lot of problems this year
for teams just pressuring the rim and kicking out the
shooters and the Lakers basically shut them down. They've had
timely defense, and that, to me is that track that
we've talked about it. The goal for this team needs
(18:51):
to be twenty twenty three Denver Nuggets be one of
the top two or three offenses in the league, while
being somewhere around the twelfth to fifteenth best defense the
league that can block in and be a timely good
defense that goes on runs, that is a high IQ defense,
that is schematically strong, that is strong game planning from
their staff. That's the pathway for the Lakers to get
(19:13):
to where they want to go on the defensive end
of the floor. I still think they need some extra help.
Speaker 2 (19:17):
Ultimately.
Speaker 1 (19:18):
I think this team needs a starting caliber three, somebody
that's a combination of all the best traits of Marcus Smart,
Jake Laavia, and Ruey Hatchamura. Big like Ruy, and athletic,
really smart and high IQ as a read and react
player like Marcus, but some more of the off the
dribble polish that you get from Jake Laavia. If you
combine all of those things, that's the type of player
(19:39):
that I think can move the Lakers into some more
serious conversations.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
Overall.
Speaker 1 (19:44):
With Lebrono to kind of tie this off again, I
just thought he did a wonderful job inserting himself into
the offense without disrupting the existing rhythm, which showed in
how efficient they were on offense when he was on
the floor and He's just an incredibly versatile basketball player
who was built to step in and address a bunch
of specific needs for this Lakers group. It remains absolutely
baffling to me that anybody couldn't understand how Lebron would
(20:08):
obviously help this team. I went on Twitter last night
for like five minutes after the game. I was eating
a late dinner after the stream, and I saw a
bunch of tweets from people like blaming Lebron for how
bad they looked in the first two and a half quarters,
and like, I literally was like, oh my god, this
this Lebron derangement syndrome is alive and well, Like, it
(20:28):
was just very clearly that the entire Lakers team looked
lackadaisical against a Utah Jazz team that they didn't show
up with the appropriate respect for, and Lebron was certainly
not the center of their issues on either end of
the floor during those two and a half quarters. Like,
so many people are overthinking this, so many people are
(20:48):
Like I literally saw tweet saying Lebron was marginalizing Austin
when Austin had a twenty eight percent usage percentage and
Lebron had a fourteen percent usage percentage and was clearly
deferring to those guys throughout the games. Way too many
people are overthinking this. You're gonna see a ton of
negativity surrounding Lebron over the next couple of weeks, especially
if the Lakers drop a game or two, which is like,
I don't know what fucking happens in the NBA regular season.
(21:12):
It just it is what it is. You got to
just ignore those people. Lebron is going to help this team.
It's not gonna be perfect. It's not gonna be a smooth,
linear ascent to the top of the league. It will
be clunky. Sometimes they will drop some games, but in
the big picture, he is a massive ceiling razor for
this group, especially once they get the continuity that they
(21:32):
need for them to all kind of settle into their
appropriate roles. A couple other quick shout outs for the Lakers.
I thought DeAndre Ayton and Jackson Hayes were both fantastic
in this game. They combined for twenty eight points and
seventeen rebounds between the two of them, six offensive rebounds.
Both Ayton and Jackson had some huge offensive rebound put
backs in the second half. Both of them did lots
(21:53):
of damage on the roll, like oh, Lebron calls for
a quick late late clock ball screen from Jackson and
Yorkic shows too high, oh boom, easy little pass in
the pocket Jackson's dunking it down the lane, or like
DeAndre Eyton rolling to the foul line and hitting little
short jump shots off of Luka Doncics. Ball screens just
like the two of them have been wonderful to start
(22:15):
this season. I think getting DeAndre Ayton has motivated Jackson
to add some muscle and to add some proficiency in
some key areas, namely his short role passing and just
the amount of muscle that he's put on that's allowed
him to be more physical underneath the basket, but also
defending without fouling, which was such a big issue for
Jackson in previous seasons. Like it's a rising tide that
(22:36):
floats all boats, you get more good basketball players in
the situation where rotation minutes get harder to come by.
It motivates everyone to play better basketball. Jake Laaravia had
a really nice bounce back game after looking kind of
out of rhythm on the road trip, played really well
off of Lebron in that fourth quarter run. Last note
on the Lakers before we get out of here. A
lot of people were upset about Ruy starting. I didn't
(22:57):
have any problem with it. Again, like it makes with
the defensive scheme they were using. They were primarily switching,
and if you're gonna switch, that allows the opponent to
get rid of the primary point of attack defender basically
whenever they want to. So a primary point of attack
defender has less value in a switching defensive scheme. And
so with that being the case, a guy like Marcus
(23:19):
has less value with that group, and all of a sudden,
Rui's offensive game becomes a bigger value. Now, did the
starters play well last night?
Speaker 2 (23:27):
No?
Speaker 1 (23:28):
But sometimes, like people Galaxy brain this stuff, sometimes a
group of basketball players plays bad basketball, and that doesn't
mean that that group of basketball players isn't capable of
playing good basketball. The answer is just play better basketball.
That group is going to work. They just need to
(23:48):
attack games better than they did against the Utah Jazz
on League Pass on a Tuesday in November. Everybody relax.
Does that mean Rui's going to start? In the big picture?
Speaker 2 (23:58):
Who knows?
Speaker 1 (23:58):
Maybe they end up shifting to Mark because at some point,
maybe they end up running some more drop coverage with
Marcus and DeAndre and we'll see in the big picture.
But I think starting RUI is a completely defensible decision.
Like you can get a little bit deeper into some
of the stuff, Like Okay, like Gabe Vincent ended up
playing a substantial role. I didn't think Gabe was bad
last night. Did he botch some switches and have some
(24:20):
mistakes on the defensive end? Yeah, what are you gonna
get mad at Gabe for when everybody on the team
was doing it? Hit a couple of threes, had a
really nice relocation three off of a side step off
of a Lebron kickout in the second half. Like they're like,
I didn't really have any problem with how the rotation
shook out last night. Just ultimately, would I like to
(24:41):
see a guy like Dalton play over Gabe? Maybe maybe,
But like now we're arguing about the eighth and ninth
man on the team, Like at a certain point, I
think people are kind of over analyzing what JJ Reddick
is doing with the rotation. I thought starting RUI was
a completely defensible decision. The rotation played well last night.
They ask when Gabe was on the floor last night.
(25:01):
It was one of their better units. Like, ultimately, I
was really happy with how things came together. They came
out against a bad team and looked sloppy for two
and a half quarters. Then they locked in and looked
fucking awesome for fourteen minutes and blew out a team
and showed a lot of the upside of the things
we've been looking at with this team all season. Today's
(25:23):
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or Virginia. All right, before we move on to the
next game. While we're on the subject of Lebron, I
(27:06):
saw a clip from the Bill Simmons podcast, and he
was basically talking about how the biggest sliding doors moment
in NBA history is basically the Draymond Green ejection after
Game five of the twenty sixteen Finals, because it would
have led to KD go into Boston in all likelihood,
and then Lebron doesn't win a title in Cleveland and
all of these other different kind of trickle down effects.
(27:26):
And there's two big reasons why I very much disagree
with this. First of all, I don't think that Draymond's
suspension is the reason why Cleveland won the title in two.
I don't think that if Golden State wins the title
in twenty sixteen, that that automatically win means they win
in twenty seventeen in twenty eighteen, So let's dig into
(27:47):
this a little bit. First of all, again, I think
people completely forget how much Cleveland dominated the tail end
of the twenty sixteen NBA Finals. Over the last five
games of the series, the Calves led for the vast
majority of the time that the game of like of
game clock time, the Calves led the vast majority of it.
(28:09):
They had a plus eleven net rating over the last
five games. We see a plus eleven net rating with
a team like Oklahoma City in the regular season, and
we start calling them one of the all time great
basketball teams. That's what the Calves were doing to the
Warriors over the final five games of that series. They
had basically figured out how to guard them. Tristan Thompson
(28:30):
and his ability to switch on to Steph in different
ball screens was shutting down a lot of their pet
screening actions. They were being very physical with Steph off
the ball and wearing him down. Over the final five
games of the series, the Warriors had just a one
oh four point five offensive rating. The Calves had figured
out how to guard them, and the vast majority of
all that happened with Draymond on the floor. So, like,
(28:54):
I just think it's completely insane to insinuate that the
Calves automatically would have lost Game five if Draymon had played.
Maybe the Warriors win. Sure, it's certainly possible. Maybe a
lot of things happen in NBA history, but it was very,
very far from a sure thing. I just very much
disagree with the idea that the entire twenty sixteen Finals
(29:17):
hinged on the Draymond suspension, and like, it gets really
lame when you start to dig into it, like Kevin
Love missed Game two of that series with a concussion.
You never hear about that. The Calves literally blew out
the Warriors in Game six with a healthy Draymond, Like
beat the shit out of them. They controlled the majority
(29:37):
of the second half of Game seven. They took like
a seven or eight point lead in the middle of
the third quarter off of a Kyrie trailing transition three
on the left wing. In the fourth quarter. The Calves
got much better shots in that game. Like the Calves
missed a bunch of easy ones right at the basket.
This is the only reason they needed a Kyrie Irving
step back three to close it out late. Ron missed
(30:00):
a point blank range little left shoulder hook. Kevin Love
missed a left shoulder hook. Lebron had a left handed
layup where he got Steph on a switch, beat him
off the dribble and was right there, and Andre Gudala
came over and hit him on the wrist and didn't
get called for it, and Lebron missed a layup.
Speaker 2 (30:15):
It's literally a play like the.
Speaker 1 (30:18):
Calves were getting great shots right at the front of
the rim in a super ugly rock fight game, and
the Warriors on the other end were bricking bad jump shots.
Like the Calves got better shots and they won the game.
They controlled, like completely controlled the final five games of
that series. I just very much disagree with the idea
(30:40):
that if game five, if Draymond doesn't punch Lebron in
the nuts, that they're going on to win that series.
The only reason it went as long as it did
is because the Warriors did jump them in the first
two games of the series, and that just makes it
really hard to come back because you got to win
four games out of five.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
But guess what the Calves did.
Speaker 1 (31:00):
They won four games out of five, and you know what,
three of those wins were with Draymond playing. So I
just I disagree with that specific idea. Also, like if
Kevin Durant goes to the Celtics, the Warriors aren't massive
favorites to win the following two years they probably do resign.
Harrison Barnes twenty seventeen in twenty eighteen are possibly the
(31:23):
very best basketball that Lebron ever played. Kyrie probably doesn't
request a trade in that situation. So, like, I find
it very hard to believe that that Golden State ends
up going you know, four and oh in that stretch,
if Kevin Durant doesn't go to the Warriors, like in
all likelihood, like it probably ends somewhere around two and two,
(31:45):
two titles for Lebron, two titles for Steph. But no,
Kevin Durant goes to the Warriors and they become unbeatable
and they end up winning three of the one. So again,
I don't really disagree with either. I don't really agree
with either side of that that that take. Like, I
think the Calves outplayed the Warriors substantially over the final
(32:06):
five to sevenths of the NBA Finals, And if Kevin
Durant doesn't go to the Warriors, Lebron at least gets
one title in that four year stretch. So like, I
don't really view that as a sliding doors moment. Like,
to me, the clear sliding doors moment is the Harden
trade in twenty twelve, like if you get the hard
In trade all of a sudden, like the mid twenty
(32:27):
tens were completely dominated by the Caves and Warriors. They
faced each other in the finals four years in a row.
If Harden stays in Oklahoma City, they are firmly in
that mix, maybe even better than both of those teams.
There's a version of that where the Thunder end up
getting two championships. To me, Stephan Lebron, they're stamped for life.
(32:49):
They each won titles after what happened in those situations,
they each have four of them. They're now two of
the five best basketball players ever. And because of the
sliding ars moment of the Harden trade, the Thunder flame out,
Kevin Durant goes to the Warriors, and now he stamped
for life with a couple of championships. So to me,
(33:09):
the biggest sliding doors moment is pretty obviously the Harden trade.
And frankly, I very much disagree with the idea that
the Cavs only beat the Warriors in twenty sixteen because
of the Draymond Green suspension.
Speaker 2 (33:21):
All right, let's move on to Warriors magic.
Speaker 1 (33:24):
So the Warriors took their last lead in this game
with about five minutes left in the first quarter. The
Magic essentially controlled this one throughout. It was one of
those games where like the lead kept hovering in that
five to fifteen range, Like the Warriors would make a
run and cut it down to like five, and then
the Magic would make a couple of plays and stiff
arm them, and then the Warriors would come back and
cut it to five, and then the Magic would stiff
arm them. It just kind of hovered in that range,
and then the Magic ended up winning by eight. I
(33:47):
thought this particular game essentially came down to two things. One,
the Magic got much better production down the roster after
their stars. Anthony Black tortured the Warriors for twenty one
points in this one. Everything was at the rim, and
this has been a consistent theme for the Warriors this season.
Some of these bigger, stronger downhill athletes can do some
(34:08):
damage to them attacking the basket. Franz did a ton
of damage in this game, getting close to the rim
and going through and over smaller Warriors players, and Anthony
Black was no exception. He scored through Draymond at the
rim a few times through Jimmy at the rim. He
got a big one late where Buddy Hill botched a switch.
And we'll talk about Buddy Hild later because he definitely
was not good, especially in the second half last night.
(34:28):
But he got a big baseline dunk, just kind of
blowing through Buddy Hild's left shoulder for along the baseline.
He did a bunch of damage in transition, got a
couple of big transition dunks in the second half, one
where he caught Moses Moody sleeping and not getting back
to the rim, a nasty little right left like tomahawk
along the baseline. Anthony's had a nice week, by the way.
(34:48):
He's averaged fifteen points per game on fifty five percent
from the field over his last four games. Tristan de
Silva had fifteen hit some big threes early in the game.
His three point shooting has been a godsend for this
Orlando Magic team as of La and then the Magic
Biggs did a lot of damage. The size disparity was
screaming off the screen last night. Wendell Carter Junior had
seventeen points and twelve rebounds. Just killed the Warriors inside.
(35:10):
Just looked like a man amongst boys down there, like
grabbing offensive rebounds over Smalls when the Warriors would get
up in rotation inside catches against Warriors guards, when they'd
end up in rotation, he'd either just go up and score,
he'd go up and draw a foul. I thought Goga
Bitadze kind of kicked Horford's ass in the bench groups.
I had a block on him, was getting behind him
on rolls, had a nice coore tot screen that set
(35:30):
up an easy layup. Like I thought, Goga just played
a lot better than Al Horford did. Tys Jones only
had eight points, but on only three shots, and every
one of them was important. Hit a couple of big threes,
including like a deep like twenty eight footer from the
top of the key that busted a Warrior's zone look.
He had a floater out of an ice coverage on
the left side of the floor. And then for the
Warriors it was basically just steph for Jimmy or bust like.
(35:54):
Those two guys had sixty seven points on thirty nine shots.
Moses Moody, Brandon Pajem's buddy Heeled, Quinton Post and Al
Horford combined for twenty four points total on twenty six shots.
So Anthony Black almost by himself managed to match the
production of half of the Golden State Warriors rotation. It
(36:15):
was an outclassing down the roster from the deeper bench
players of the or I should say everybody after the
stars of Orlando compared to the Warriors. But the second
piece of it, and the second reason why I thought
Orlando won this game, was the margins. The magic seemingly
paid off every single mistake the Warriors made last night.
If they turned it over, Orlando ran out and got
(36:38):
it easy to someone fell asleep in transition, they'd get
behind him and get a dunk. Oh you don't pick
up Anthony Black. Boom, one handed hammer going down the lane. Oh,
Moses Moody doesn't stop the rim in transition, Boom, Anthony
Black along the baseline, a tomahawk dunk off of two feet.
Like if they missed a box out or like left
a guard on Wendell Carter Jr. They were getting an
(37:00):
offensive rebound and they'd either get a foul or they'd
get a bucket. Orlando had a fourteen to eight advantage
and second chance points in a twenty eight to sixteen
advantage in.
Speaker 2 (37:10):
Fast break points.
Speaker 1 (37:11):
That's basically the difference in the game, and it's one
of those things where, like, you know, Steph and Jimmy
can do a lot to make up for what happened
down the bench. Like, yeah, the deep rotation guys for
the Warriors didn't play well, but Steph and Jimmy were
so good that they still had every chance to win
that game. But every single time they cut it close,
they would make a mistake. They'd have a turnover, they'd
(37:32):
miss a rotation on defense, Buddy Heal would get lost
and lose Anthony Black on a baseline drive, they give
up an offensive rebound. Orlando consistently made Golden State pay
for every mistake they made in this game. Orlando's now
won seven out of ten. This was a trend that
started before Pallo got hurt and has now continued without him.
Their sixth in defense in that ten game span after
(37:53):
a rough start to the season, fifth in rebounding, thirteenth
in offense over the last ten games. And I want
to zoo in on this concept for a minute, because
I'm seeing some real growth there starts in transition, and
this is fueled by their defense. Again, they got off
to a rough defensive start to the season, but because
they've been better on defense as of late, they've been
able to get out and transition more. They had thirty
(38:14):
seven points total in transition according to Synergy last night.
They've been averaging thirty transition points per game over their
last five games. That has bumped their season average up
to twenty eight and moved them to the sixth best
transition offense in the league to start the year by volume,
And again that's fueled by their defense. And then in
the half court, they're moving the ball really well. In
(38:36):
their one and four start, only fifty three point six
percent Orlando's made field goals were assisted. That ranked twenty
seventh in the league. That was during that horribly ugly
offensive stretch that I was complaining about every single time
I came on the show. But in the seven and
three stretch since then, they're assisting sixty five percent of
their made field goals, which ranks twelfth in the NBA.
(38:59):
And you're seeing a lot more of those like tic
tac toe sequences, the stuff that leads to great looks
like running a bayin ball screen where you bring the
second defender to the level that ends into a short
roll pass that ends up getting skipped to the corner
for a wide open three higher level driving kick sequences
a lot some of the stuff we've been talking about
with Toronto, because they do have some Like Desmond Bane
(39:19):
adds an aggregate playmaking talent to this group because of
his ability to dribble, shoot and pass. And when they
have these lineups to have like Anthony Black and Desmond
Bane and Franz Wagner on the floor, like there's some
offensive skill there and they're able to like make some
of these higher level dribble pass shoot sequences that can
get some really good looks. Desmond Bain's broken out of
(39:40):
his early season slump that he was in. Franz is
averaging twenty three points per game in this ten game stretch.
Tristan da Silva is now hitting forty three percent of
his threes on five attempts per game over five attempts
per game in this ten game stretch, Like the Magic
are showing some real signs of life, starting to play
some serious good B basketball down there in Orlando. And again,
(40:02):
like I don't I think this started before Palo left,
So this is not like a oh now that Palo's gone,
Like as a team, they're just starting to play a
lot better basketball in the offensive end of the floor,
recapturing their defense and rebounding identity, recapturing their transition identity,
and getting a lot more done on that end.
Speaker 2 (40:20):
Of the floor.
Speaker 1 (40:21):
On the Warriors front, again, some of their personnel limitations
were on display in this game, Like they looked really
small at several points, especially around the rim, like Al
Horford looking kind of old and slow to start the
season has made their center rotation look like it's lacking. Also,
like guarding these bigger downhill athletes.
Speaker 2 (40:39):
We've seen that.
Speaker 1 (40:39):
We saw this be an issue in the Portland game
earlier this year, like we saw this be an issue
in the in the Milwaukee game, Like trying to deal
with Ryan Rolins like these some of these bigger athletes
when they start attacking downhill, they can cause a lot
of problems. And Anthony Black and Franz Wagner in particular,
they looked really comfortable getting downhill and getting to their
(41:01):
spots with ease. Obviously some frustrating inconsistency on offense with
their role players that's hurting them. Like Moses Moody got
some really clean looks out of the corner that didn't
go down. Brandon Pajemski missed some easy ones.
Speaker 2 (41:15):
He smoked.
Speaker 1 (41:15):
He like straight up smoked a wide open right handed
layup in this game, and like that hurt them, especially
in the context of how well Orlando's death played. But
I don't want to focus too much on that, because
ultimately it came down to mistakes. Like whatever downsides you
got down the bench, he got sixty seven points out
of your stars, which gave you a chance to win
the game. But just too many turnovers, too many bad
(41:38):
transition defense possessions, too many offensive rebounds, especially in key
portions of the game, that stopped their runs. Like they'd
cut it to five and then they'd make a couple
of mistakes and to'd be back to nine and ten.
Buddy Healed stuck out like a sore thumb in this respect,
especially in the second half, Like he had a really
bad turnover where he left his feet in the middle
of the floor and ended up throwing the ball right
(41:59):
to Anthony Black. But it was mostly on the defensive end,
like kind of overreacting to screening actions and getting out
of position and then giving up slips or giving up
cuts or giving up drives. He had a bad one
against Anthony Black where he gave up a dunk. Warriors
cut it to five, and then Steph is getting ready
to switch out to the perimeter, and for some reason,
Buddy Heel decided he should stunt that direction. Anthony Black
(42:19):
is standing in the corner and he's like, I'm open,
gets the ball just racks baseline. Buddy's out of position.
He just blows through his shoulder and gets a two
handed dunk along the baseline. That's a critical mistake that
instead of getting a stop and going down and cutting
the lead to three or two, now it's back up
to seven and you've lost some of that momentum. And
so like, it's really hard to win on the road
against good teams like Orlando's really good, like we talked
(42:43):
about on playback last weekend. The Eastern Conference at the
top has been very good this year. Against the West,
you've got to bring your a game against them or
you're gonna get beat. And I just thought the Warriors
made way too many mistakes, and it's hard to win
on the road against good teams when you make that
many mistakes. No rest for the weary though for the Warriors.
They're back on the road again tonight in Miami, although
I'll be curious to see if the Warriors even play
(43:04):
their vets in that game tail end of the road trip.
I wouldn't be surprised if they maybe consider benching guys
and getting some rest. But we'll see they play tonight.
I believe at four thirty Pacific time or four Pacific time,
we'll end up seeing if they have a response for
that Miami Heat team that also can be very feisty.
All right, guys, it's all I have for today. As always,
sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show.
(43:27):
We'll be back tomorrow morning with reactions to tonight's games.
Speaker 2 (43:30):
I will see you guys then,