December 23, 2025 • 26 mins
Jason answers mailbag questions from fans on a range of topics including who is better -- Oklahoma City Thunder MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Los Angeles Lakers star Luka Doncic. He also breaks down how he evaluates two way players like Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs) compared to offensive geniuses like Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets), who is to blame for the struggles of the Golden State Warriors (and why it's not Steph Curry), and more.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. All right, we'll go to hoops tonight. You're
at the volume. Havy Tuesday, everybody hopefull You guys are
having a great week so far. Just a quick show
(00:21):
for you guys today. We have a weird week with
the holiday for obvious reasons, so we have no show
on Wednesday and Thursday this week. But I wanted to
give you us something for Tuesday, so we're gonna do
a quick little mail bag based off of the mail
bag questions that came from last week's mail bag. We
have some follow ups from our Shae Luca debate and
some other questions from around the league. You guys know
the Joe before we get started. Subscribe to the Oops
to Night YouTube channel so you don't miss any more
(00:43):
of our videos. Don't forget to like this video. That
helps us a lot, And then if you want to
get questions into our mail bag. Obviously, no mail bag
this Friday because we'll have our Christmas Day reactions, but
a week from this Friday we'll go back to our
normal Friday mail bags. If you guys want to get
a question in there, drop them in the YouTube comments
underneath this video and underneath all of our full episode
between now and then right mail bag with a colon.
Write your question. We'll get to our mailbag questions on Fridays.
(01:06):
All right, let's talk some basketball. So our first question again,
our first two are going to be related to the
Shay Luca debate, and then there's another one kind of
center to around Wemby's comments about the best players in
the world. First question, you're acting as if Shae winning
with this OKC team is equivalent to Luca winning with
(01:26):
this Lakers team. Shay is on the best team in
the entire NBA and on pace for perhaps the greatest
team ever. It's not. If Shae wins the title again
and Luca doesn't, then Luca needs to look at himself
in the mirror. That's such a stupid take. The Lakers
need to get better first. These teams aren't on equal level.
You can't make this an Sga versus Luca thing. This
(01:47):
was always a gap year for the Lakers. Next season,
Let's see what Luca and Austin do when their team
is built around built more athletic around those two. Okay,
So this is something that I focus on in general
when I'm trying to talk about these sorts of things
like we do our basketball player rankings every summer, based
on an in a vacuum ranking of what I would
(02:10):
expect to be the best player moving forward from the
beginning of October all the way to the end of
June right and coming into the season, I did view
Luca as the better basketball player than Shay for this
exact reason. I knew coming into the season that Oklahoma
City was clearly a better team than the Lakers. I
(02:32):
knew coming into the season that the Thunder had a
far better chance to win the title this year than
the Lakers did, And yet I ranked Luca before Shae
because when I looked at the two of them, I
looked at Luca as a guy based on his twenty
twenty four season, the year he went to the finals.
I viewed that as more or less every bit as
(02:56):
good of a volume score in both efficiency and volume
as what Shaye did last year, but also a better playmaker.
And so the way I looked at it is like
the gap between who they were as playmakers. I didn't
think the defensive end was as much of a factor
between the two of them. I gave Luca just a
tiny bit of an edge over Shay coming into the season.
(03:17):
But two different things have happened. One, Luca has failed
to reach the level that he reached in twenty twenty four.
He has been nowhere near as efficient, and he's been
turning the basketball over a lot. Those two particular things
are hurting his efficiency. And then on the other side
you have Shae Yodas Alexander, who took a dramatic leap
(03:39):
inefficiency this year. His true shooting percentage is skyrocketed into
the high sixties and he's cut his turnovers. So regardless
of what's happening in terms of the teams, regardless of
what's happening and like and by the way, if you
want to get into the talent piece, the majority of
the data we have to from Shade to this point
is before Jada joined the team. He's been carrying an
(04:01):
enormous offensive load during this stretch. I do think the
thunder are better. I think that plays a certain role.
We've talked about it. I've talked about it in my
debates that I've had with the Nerd Sesh guys. I
do think that life is easier for Shay than it
is for Luca in this league. But there is a
gigantic chasm now between the two of them in overall
efficiency in terms of how many shots they miss, and
in terms of how often they turned the basketball over.
(04:23):
And so what had been a very close race for
me in favor of Luca has now flipped to where
now I have Shane front. I look, I understand that
you guys kind of just got to take my word
for it, and there will be people that don't believe me,
and it is what it is. But I can promise
you that when I do talk about these things and
I rank these players, I do my best to look
at them in a vacuum because it is a team
(04:43):
sport and it is harder to win basketball games when
you're surrounded by less talent. And I think that stuff
is worth talking about. And I think it's too reductive
to just sit there and go, this guy's the best
because he hoisted the trophy. Shay literally won MVP and
finals MVP last year, and I ranked him third. I
don't move players up or down based solely on team success.
(05:04):
I try to view it in the vacuum as best
as I can. Next kind of counterpoint surrounding that, so
Jason is just straight up ignoring true shooting, we're using
field goal percentage now, So this is the trick when
you're looking at Luca and you're looking at the Lakers
in general. Actually, so let's just zoom out and let's
look at the Lakers for a second. So one of
the conversations surrounding the Lakers surrounds their three point shooting
(05:27):
and the fact that they are a relatively low volume
three point team and that they don't hit a great percentage.
They actually generate the fewest catch and shoot threes in
the entire league, which is a product of a bunch
of different things. Lebron, Luca, and Austin all take a
lot of shots while guarded. It's kind of the way
their offense is built. And most importantly, this is the
team that generates a lot of free throw temps. So,
(05:48):
for instance, like, what's the whole point of generating threes?
You generate threes because they're worth an extra point. Right,
So if I hit four threes out of ten shots,
I get twelve points. If I hit five twos out
of ten shots, I only get ten points. So forty
percent from three is twenty percent more efficient than fifty
(06:08):
percent from two. Right, So that's the dynamic that drives
the conversation around three point shooting. But if you actually
look at the Lakers as they reflect on the rest
of the league, the Lakers are an extremely high true
shooting percentage team. Their second and true shooting percentage. True
shooting percentage factors in field goals, three point field goals,
(06:31):
and free throws. It factors all of it in. So
the Lakers in the large sample are actually a very
efficient offense because they generate so many free throw attempts. However,
Luca is actually more reliant on the free throws than
Shay is when Luca doesn't get to the foul line
as much in random games, So talk about the Thunder
game where they did a really good job of not fouling,
(06:51):
the Phoenix Suns game where they did a really good
job of not foiling. When you are the first Sons game,
the one that they lost before the inn season tournament,
when you kind of like zoom in on that dynamic,
you go, oh, when it actually comes down to putting
the ball in the basket, Shay is better than Luca.
He's more efficient from three, he's more efficient from two.
Luca's been really good on short range twos, he's been
(07:13):
like right around fifty percent this year. Well, Shay's been
fifty eight fifty nine percent on short range twos. That's
more efficient. Shay has been more efficient from three. That
means there's fewer miss shots. Fewer miss shots and fewer
turnovers means fewer opportunities for the opponent to attack you
in transition. So, like I think true shooting percentage is
(07:35):
a valuable way to look at large sample efficiency, and
I do think that it's worth bringing up. But when
you come into live ball play and things that are
outside of your control, like the whistle, tend to go
another direction. And by the way, Shaye foulgriffs a lot too.
I'd argue Luca and Shae are two of the most
the two of the biggest culprits in the league. But
just look at the volume, guys. Luca is relying on
(07:57):
getting to the foul line considerably more than Shaye is
at this point. And so when you look at the
amount of missed shots between the two of them and
the amount of turnovers between the two of them, Luca's
just having these Like Carson from nerd Set, I thought
put this really well. He said, Luca fails more. That's
the way he put it. That's the way I'd put
it too. I'd agree with him in that characterization, Like
(08:17):
when you fail on offense, it can trigger the opponent's offense.
That's why that efficiency is worth bringing up. And it's
not as just it's not as just simple as just
looking at true shooting percentage. You can have another way
of looking at it is you can have a high
true shooting percentage but have more opportunities for the opponent
(08:37):
to get out in transition because you're taking a lot
of threes and you're getting to the foul line a lot.
Because every miss three, even though in the large sample
it's worth more points, every miss three is a long
rebound that can trigger a transition opportunity. And every time
Luca goes down the lane line and tries to grift
and fails and doesn't get the call and then stands
there complaining with the ref while they're running the other way,
that can trigger opportunities for the opponent. And last thing,
(08:59):
this last thing I'll say about it, like I am
emotionally invested in Luca being good. I root for his team.
I am not the kind of stand like you've seen
in some of these some of the behavior where like
some of the you've seen some of it with the
Luca and Lebron stands lately, where I'm not like I
want Luca to be great. I think it's Luca's team.
I have no interest in Lebron doing more statistically or
(09:21):
Luca doing more statistically. I'm only interested in the Lakers
winning basketball games. That's all I care about. And like
my perspective in the way I've discussed Luca is not
centered around whether or not he's great. We all know
lucas great. Luca's been less great than I've expected him
to be this year, but he's still been great. It's
just now we're talking about splitting hairs between the very
(09:44):
best players in the world, comparing him to Shay, comparing
him to be honest, comparing him to Jokic. That becomes
much more of a nitpicky conversation. So we're gonna get
nitpicky when we get into those parts of the conversation.
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(11:09):
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New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Jason, I was wondering
if you could share your take on how to evaluate
two way players. A few days ago, Wemby said Jokich
is the best offensive player in the world, but not
the best defensive player in the world. He said, the
best player in the world is himself, Giannis or Sga.
(11:29):
I think he, along with many NBA fans, don't understand
that elite offense is more important and more valuable than
elite defense. Is Yokich an elite defender. No, but his
overall positive impact is still vastly superior to Wemby's and
clearly superior to Giannis's and Shay's. What are your thoughts
on this and how we should correctly or accurately evaluate
two way players versus a one way offensive goat like Jokic.
(11:51):
I think you broke it down really well yourself, and
I want to give you some credit there. Like the
way I look at it, your value to your basketball
team is unique to what your team needs for you, right,
and so yeah, Like, if you are the type of
weak defender that can be really difficult to build an
elite defense around, that's problematic. But even if you are
(12:15):
a below average defender, if you can at least do
some things well enough to where they can build a
functioning elite defense around you, then your offensive gifts become
dramatically more valuable than a guy who's an elite defensive
player but that cannot impact the game at the offensive level.
The reason why is because you can schematically, through good
(12:38):
game planning, through mixing up coverages, through attention to detail,
through habits and consistency, through having good supporting role player talent,
you can build an elite defense without needing an elite
defensive superstar. It is very difficult to be an elite
offense without an elite offensive superstar. I'd argue it's impossible.
(13:04):
You need fundamentally a player that can break the defense
over and over again and create the types of advantages
that will drive success consistently on the offensive end of
the floor. So where I disagree with Wenby is like,
give me Jokic and and a good decent group of
defenders around him, versus Wemby and a good group of
(13:26):
a decent kind of league average offensive players around him.
I think Jokic is going to be able to break
san Antonio's defense with his supreme offensive gifts and be
good enough defensively with the talent he as around him,
rather than if you look at san Antonio on that example,
it doesn't matter if the four other offensive players around
(13:46):
him are all solid if Wemby can't break the defense
down to the extent that a guy like Jokic can.
And that's kind of like what the way that I've
always looked at it. It's just it's it's easier to
build a good defense around a offensive minded superstar than
to build a great offense around a defensive minded superstar.
I've dealt with this personally since Lebron aged out, And
(14:09):
you know, Lebron's always been good in his old age,
but he's not been a defense breaking offensive engine, not
since he was not since like twenty twenty one. Really ever,
since Solomon Hill dove into his ankle, we've only seen
very brief spurts where Lebron's actually been that type of
legit awesome offensive engine, like very briefly last year surrounding
(14:30):
the trade deadline for like a month, right, but it's
been rare, and so before then it was fine with Ad.
But then all of a sudden, like Ad could be this.
I thought he was the best defensive player in the
world before Wemby came around, but it didn't matter because
they weren't good enough offensively because Ad and Lebron at
his old age were unable to break defenses down the
(14:53):
way that they needed to in order to capitalize. So,
like another really simple way to look at it is
like the twenty twenty three Denver Nuggets were an elite
defense in the postseason despite having Yokichen Murray the twenty
twenty four MAVs now they ended up running into an
awful matchup for them, a Boston Celtics team that could
truly spread them out and really target Luca's point of
(15:15):
attack defense at a higher level. But like we saw
other matchups like the Clippers series in the first round
of that year, where Luca's defense was fine because they
didn't have five elite shooters, on the floor and so
they were able to offer the help when they needed
to help. Like that was a unique kind of matchup
problem regarding a Celtics team that had five good shooters
on the floor at all times, which is not something
(15:35):
we really see in the NBA anymore, right, Like that
was kind of like a unique kind of flash in
a pan kind of thing. Dallas constructed a good defense
through that entire season post trade because they had good
defenders around Luca, and then they had this supremely gifted
offensive player that can push them over the top. So
like that's why I've always get been geared that way.
I just generally think a defense breaking offensive weapon is
(15:58):
the hardest thing to come by in the NBA and
kind of like a fundamental need if you want to
win a championship, unless you have a supreme talent advantage,
like you have five thirty million dollars players like the
Boston Celtics, right, or you have Oklahoma City last year.
Like I think Shay is a considerably better offensive player
this year than he was last year in terms of
just game flow, late game stuff, over the top shooting,
(16:20):
like from the three point line. He's even more efficient
from short range twos. Right, But the reason why they
won the championship last year is they had this all
time great defense, right, Like that was a unique trait.
It wasn't any one defensive breaking weapon. It was just
a bunch of really good defenders working together. Right. I
just generally think that that off, that defense breaking offensive
(16:40):
engine is the hardest weapon to come by in the NBA.
Who do you think shoulder is the most responsibility for
the warriors disappointing season, the players, the coach, or the
front office. Who do you think shoulders the most responsibility
for the disappointing results of the years since the Warriors
last title in twenty twenty two. Seems to me there's
plenty of blame to go around except for Steph at
this point. Thanks, love the show as always. I agree
(17:03):
with you fully, Like there are certain guys like I
think Moses Moody generally has reached his potential and has
become a player that you know, based on where he
got picked, has exceeded expectations. But when you look down
the rest of the list, like I'd argue you talk
about the since twenty twenty two, I'd include this into
(17:23):
this season because of what they did last summer. The
ownership group and their unwillingness to let go of Jonathan
Minga and the fact that he was clearly a bust
relative to where they picked him has set this franchise
back because they had an opportunity to trade him two
years ago for a guy like a Pascal Siakamerno g
and Obi, and they refused. That was when he was
(17:45):
at his peak value. Now he's nowhere near of worth
that much. But at the very least they could have
turned him into Malik Monk this last summer, and everyone
was like, no, you can't include Buddy Heald. How much
do you guys leaning on Buddy Heiald right now? How
much is Buddy yield vital to your succes right now?
You guys could have used a guard who could break
the defense down off the dribble, beat people off the dribble,
(18:06):
and generate quality shots when Steph was off the floor.
Still this year one nineteen offensive rating when Steph is
on the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass, they can
score when STEP's out there, they just can't score when
he's off. Now it gets a little deeper because the
defense hasn't been as good we'll talk about that in
a second, but I think that the front office and
ownership grip, mainly the ownership group deserves the majority of
the blame for the circumstance because they were unwilling to
(18:28):
admit that they busted on Cominga and they needed to
move him earlier on in the deal, and so as
a result, now they've got him in this weird, distressed
asset situation where his value is probably lower than it's
ever been, and that's just kind of the predicament that
they're in. I wouldn't say it's quite as low as
it was last summer because now he's no longer a
(18:48):
restricted free agent and so he's technically an expiring salary too.
There's a couple other elements to it, but like to me,
Johnathan Kaminga should have been traded two years ago and
then should have been traded this and just every opportunity
that the Warriors have had to do so, they've just
not done it, and so they haven't been able to
flip him into a piece that they can actually use
when they're trying to win basketball games down the line.
(19:11):
It gets tough, right, Jimmy Butler, although he's been better
as of late, hasn't been good enough this season compared
to the type of salary that he's getting paid. Right,
Draymond Green hasn't been nearly as good defensively as he's
been in years pass. I think he's been a considerable
drop off there that has affected the team on the
defensive end of the four. That's why they aren't dominating
Steph's minutes like they have in year's past. And so
(19:34):
I think it goes down the line, like some of
the old guys are starting to age out. Jimmy wasn't
as good as he needed to be to start the year.
I think the schedule played a role too. They just
got ran into the ground. Like there's this weird thing
that happens in the NBA where if you get off
to a great start, you can easily handle like a
three to eight stretch, But if you start the season
and you have a three to eight stretch early in
the season, it can be like devastating to your entire
(19:54):
kind of vibe in the locker room. Right, And I
think the Warriors kind of dealt with a front loaded
schedule that kind of beat him into the But you
might have had a better chance of surviving that if
you flip Jonathan Minga before the season for a Malik Monk,
that helps you on offense, if you have a better
start to the season from guys like Jimmy and Draymond, Like,
I think there was a version of this story that
could have ended better than it actually did. Do you
(20:17):
think the Lakers would be worse if they traded Reeves
for men Thompson and Reed Shepherd. I know you said
you wouldn't consider trading Reeves unless you're a sure number
two next to Luka, just a better player, But I
don't know. The more I watch read, I feel like
he can eventually be something close to that at least.
So here's the thing. This is my I was wrong
about Reed Shepherd in the early part of the season.
Early in the season, I viewed him as like completely
(20:39):
overmatched when he was on the floor. I didn't think
he shot the ball well enough for the types of
looks that he was getting. I didn't like his on
ball reps, and I thought he was a bad defensive player.
We've seen a much larger sample now and like, the
shooting is legitimately awesome. And this is where I got
a credit. Samvasini This is why I trust Sam so much.
Sam is like a guy, and whenever I have like
an opinion on a young player, I was like text
(21:00):
Sam and I'm like, hey, dude, what do you think?
And I like texted Sam early this season and I
was like, dude, I just don't see it with Reed,
Like what's the deal? Like I don't understand what all
the buzz is about. And to Sam's credit, the one
thing he kept hammering was like the dude can shoot,
Like he can like really shoot it. So like he's
gonna start making shots and that will help this team.
And Reid has taken a significant leap in that department
(21:23):
to where he's knocking down shots not just on the catch,
but off the dribble at a really high rate. He's
like twenty one for fifty one this season on off
the dribble threes. That's gonna be a huge boost to
an offense. And it's been. It was like basically how
they beat Denver on Saturday last week, right, So like
that part has popped. However, there is a gigantic chasm
(21:44):
between Austin Reeves and Reed Shepherd defensively, like Austin Reeves
is bigger considerably and stronger considerably, so like even though
he can get targeted sometimes, And I think you got
to have like a more nuanced conversation when it comes
to guards, because there are unless you're a professional defender
or you're like I mean, even Anthony Edwards, who's an
apex athlete, struggles sometimes in off ball defense and attentiveness
(22:08):
and can struggle to navigate screens because he has so
much attention and energy being devoted to the offensive end
of the floor. Right, Like, outside of role player guards
that specialize in defense, almost every team has a guard
that's going to get attacked in action. So like everyone
always is like, oh my god, look at Austin. He's
getting picked on. It's like Steph Curry gets fucking picked on.
Like literally everyone's targeting shake Yios with Alexander on the
(22:29):
Thunder in action as much as they can. Like if
there is a skill guard on the other team, you're
trying to attack them in action. That's how it goes.
And there's a big difference between like this guy's getting
targeted and this guy literally can't defend, and like Reid
was getting mercilessly picked on by the Kings down the
stretch of that game, Demarta Rozen was targeting him, Dennis
(22:49):
Schroeder's targeting him, and he looked completely physically overmatched because
he's so small. And so I really like Reid and
I think he projects well to be like a good
sixth man in this league in the short term. Maybe
in the long run he improves enough defensively by putting
on some muscle and just becoming more scrappy and physical
to become a player that can become a dead serious,
like top five guy on a championship level team, like
(23:12):
a legit starting five, closing five kind of guy. But
right now I view him as a guy that is
not up to the task just because of his physical limitation.
So like to me, like, I don't think Reid is
on track to become like a guy who could be
a number two for Luca on this timeline. Maybe a
different young star guard at some point in the future,
but I don't. I think he's two years away from
(23:33):
being two years away, so to speak, from being like
good enough defensively to be able to hold up in
some high leverage lineups in big spots. All right, last question,
how can Jannison Wenby be on this list? This is
regarding our top ten list with as much time as
they have missed. I'm a Knicks fan, but where's Jalen Brown,
Where's jim Al Murray's having it insane year? Where's Austin Reeves?
(23:55):
So this was in reference to my top ten list,
and again like that was not like a who I
think is the tenth best? Who are the ten best
players in the world, Like, for instance, I had Anthy
Edwards at ten on that list. I had him at
five before the season. If you ask me where ranks
in the league, I'm still ranking him five right now.
I'm not about to change my mind based on, you know,
a couple of months of basketball, of regular season basketball.
(24:18):
Mind you, that list was strictly meant to indicate who's
had the ten best seasons so far. And again you're
splitting hairs, like how are you going to bump a
guy like Jalen Brunson off that list? Like Tyrese Max,
He's been freaking awesome. Anthony Edwards just like one ahead
to head against Shay, Like the guys on that list
(24:39):
were all really good. So I said this in the show,
but I mean it, like that list is longer. There's
like thirteen fourteen guys that you could really consider, and
like Alburn Shane Gun I could easily argue, you could
easily argue he's had a top ten season this year.
Jalen Brown, for sure. Austin Reeves up until the recent
stretch he struggled before he got hurt. I did think
he was about the eighth or ninth or like the
ninth or tenth best player to start this season. Donovan Mitchell,
(25:02):
I'd argue could be in that conversation Jamal Murray, We've
had a lot of guys who've been playing at a
really high level. It's a small sample size. As the
sample size gets larger, we'll circle back. You know, we
had a slow week last week because of the n
season tournament. They were won a lot of games, right,
so it made sense for us to do something like
this to kill some time. But you know things are
gonna get busy when we circle back in the summer,
it's a much more complicated conversation. We'll have an entire
(25:24):
eighty two games slate for all these teams, we'll have
a playoff run, and we'll have so much more data
to really kind of parse out who goes where. And
even then it gets tough. Guys like dude, the top
tier and second tier stars could very well be seventeen
eighteen players deep when we go next summer. This last
year was like I think it was like fourteen if
I remember correctly, so, like a lot of this is
(25:44):
just how talented the league is, and you start throwing
out that, like, oh, this guy's a top ten guy.
This guy's a top ten guy, and it's like start
making your list. Who are you kicking off? A lot
of these dudes are really good at basketball. It's a
lot harder than it looks on the surface. Al Right, guys,
It's all I have for today is always sincerely appreciate
you guys for supporting us and supporting the show again.
(26:05):
I hope everyone has a happy holiday and that you
enjoy the next couple of days with your friends and family.
We will be back on Friday with some Christmas Day reaction.
I will see you guys then,
The volume. All right, we'll go to hoops tonight. You're
at the volume. Havy Tuesday, everybody hopefull You guys are
having a great week so far. Just a quick show
(00:21):
for you guys today. We have a weird week with
the holiday for obvious reasons, so we have no show
on Wednesday and Thursday this week. But I wanted to
give you us something for Tuesday, so we're gonna do
a quick little mail bag based off of the mail
bag questions that came from last week's mail bag. We
have some follow ups from our Shae Luca debate and
some other questions from around the league. You guys know
the Joe before we get started. Subscribe to the Oops
to Night YouTube channel so you don't miss any more
(00:43):
of our videos. Don't forget to like this video. That
helps us a lot, And then if you want to
get questions into our mail bag. Obviously, no mail bag
this Friday because we'll have our Christmas Day reactions, but
a week from this Friday we'll go back to our
normal Friday mail bags. If you guys want to get
a question in there, drop them in the YouTube comments
underneath this video and underneath all of our full episode
between now and then right mail bag with a colon.
Write your question. We'll get to our mailbag questions on Fridays.
(01:06):
All right, let's talk some basketball. So our first question again,
our first two are going to be related to the
Shay Luca debate, and then there's another one kind of
center to around Wemby's comments about the best players in
the world. First question, you're acting as if Shae winning
with this OKC team is equivalent to Luca winning with
(01:26):
this Lakers team. Shay is on the best team in
the entire NBA and on pace for perhaps the greatest
team ever. It's not. If Shae wins the title again
and Luca doesn't, then Luca needs to look at himself
in the mirror. That's such a stupid take. The Lakers
need to get better first. These teams aren't on equal level.
You can't make this an Sga versus Luca thing. This
(01:47):
was always a gap year for the Lakers. Next season,
Let's see what Luca and Austin do when their team
is built around built more athletic around those two. Okay,
So this is something that I focus on in general
when I'm trying to talk about these sorts of things
like we do our basketball player rankings every summer, based
on an in a vacuum ranking of what I would
(02:10):
expect to be the best player moving forward from the
beginning of October all the way to the end of
June right and coming into the season, I did view
Luca as the better basketball player than Shay for this
exact reason. I knew coming into the season that Oklahoma
City was clearly a better team than the Lakers. I
(02:32):
knew coming into the season that the Thunder had a
far better chance to win the title this year than
the Lakers did, And yet I ranked Luca before Shae
because when I looked at the two of them, I
looked at Luca as a guy based on his twenty
twenty four season, the year he went to the finals.
I viewed that as more or less every bit as
(02:56):
good of a volume score in both efficiency and volume
as what Shaye did last year, but also a better playmaker.
And so the way I looked at it is like
the gap between who they were as playmakers. I didn't
think the defensive end was as much of a factor
between the two of them. I gave Luca just a
tiny bit of an edge over Shay coming into the season.
(03:17):
But two different things have happened. One, Luca has failed
to reach the level that he reached in twenty twenty four.
He has been nowhere near as efficient, and he's been
turning the basketball over a lot. Those two particular things
are hurting his efficiency. And then on the other side
you have Shae Yodas Alexander, who took a dramatic leap
(03:39):
inefficiency this year. His true shooting percentage is skyrocketed into
the high sixties and he's cut his turnovers. So regardless
of what's happening in terms of the teams, regardless of
what's happening and like and by the way, if you
want to get into the talent piece, the majority of
the data we have to from Shade to this point
is before Jada joined the team. He's been carrying an
(04:01):
enormous offensive load during this stretch. I do think the
thunder are better. I think that plays a certain role.
We've talked about it. I've talked about it in my
debates that I've had with the Nerd Sesh guys. I
do think that life is easier for Shay than it
is for Luca in this league. But there is a
gigantic chasm now between the two of them in overall
efficiency in terms of how many shots they miss, and
in terms of how often they turned the basketball over.
(04:23):
And so what had been a very close race for
me in favor of Luca has now flipped to where
now I have Shane front. I look, I understand that
you guys kind of just got to take my word
for it, and there will be people that don't believe me,
and it is what it is. But I can promise
you that when I do talk about these things and
I rank these players, I do my best to look
at them in a vacuum because it is a team
(04:43):
sport and it is harder to win basketball games when
you're surrounded by less talent. And I think that stuff
is worth talking about. And I think it's too reductive
to just sit there and go, this guy's the best
because he hoisted the trophy. Shay literally won MVP and
finals MVP last year, and I ranked him third. I
don't move players up or down based solely on team success.
(05:04):
I try to view it in the vacuum as best
as I can. Next kind of counterpoint surrounding that, so
Jason is just straight up ignoring true shooting, we're using
field goal percentage now, So this is the trick when
you're looking at Luca and you're looking at the Lakers
in general. Actually, so let's just zoom out and let's
look at the Lakers for a second. So one of
the conversations surrounding the Lakers surrounds their three point shooting
(05:27):
and the fact that they are a relatively low volume
three point team and that they don't hit a great percentage.
They actually generate the fewest catch and shoot threes in
the entire league, which is a product of a bunch
of different things. Lebron, Luca, and Austin all take a
lot of shots while guarded. It's kind of the way
their offense is built. And most importantly, this is the
team that generates a lot of free throw temps. So,
(05:48):
for instance, like, what's the whole point of generating threes?
You generate threes because they're worth an extra point. Right,
So if I hit four threes out of ten shots,
I get twelve points. If I hit five twos out
of ten shots, I only get ten points. So forty
percent from three is twenty percent more efficient than fifty
(06:08):
percent from two. Right, So that's the dynamic that drives
the conversation around three point shooting. But if you actually
look at the Lakers as they reflect on the rest
of the league, the Lakers are an extremely high true
shooting percentage team. Their second and true shooting percentage. True
shooting percentage factors in field goals, three point field goals,
(06:31):
and free throws. It factors all of it in. So
the Lakers in the large sample are actually a very
efficient offense because they generate so many free throw attempts. However,
Luca is actually more reliant on the free throws than
Shay is when Luca doesn't get to the foul line
as much in random games, So talk about the Thunder
game where they did a really good job of not fouling,
(06:51):
the Phoenix Suns game where they did a really good
job of not foiling. When you are the first Sons game,
the one that they lost before the inn season tournament,
when you kind of like zoom in on that dynamic,
you go, oh, when it actually comes down to putting
the ball in the basket, Shay is better than Luca.
He's more efficient from three, he's more efficient from two.
Luca's been really good on short range twos, he's been
(07:13):
like right around fifty percent this year. Well, Shay's been
fifty eight fifty nine percent on short range twos. That's
more efficient. Shay has been more efficient from three. That
means there's fewer miss shots. Fewer miss shots and fewer
turnovers means fewer opportunities for the opponent to attack you
in transition. So, like I think true shooting percentage is
(07:35):
a valuable way to look at large sample efficiency, and
I do think that it's worth bringing up. But when
you come into live ball play and things that are
outside of your control, like the whistle, tend to go
another direction. And by the way, Shaye foulgriffs a lot too.
I'd argue Luca and Shae are two of the most
the two of the biggest culprits in the league. But
just look at the volume, guys. Luca is relying on
(07:57):
getting to the foul line considerably more than Shaye is
at this point. And so when you look at the
amount of missed shots between the two of them and
the amount of turnovers between the two of them, Luca's
just having these Like Carson from nerd Set, I thought
put this really well. He said, Luca fails more. That's
the way he put it. That's the way I'd put
it too. I'd agree with him in that characterization, Like
(08:17):
when you fail on offense, it can trigger the opponent's offense.
That's why that efficiency is worth bringing up. And it's
not as just it's not as just simple as just
looking at true shooting percentage. You can have another way
of looking at it is you can have a high
true shooting percentage but have more opportunities for the opponent
(08:37):
to get out in transition because you're taking a lot
of threes and you're getting to the foul line a lot.
Because every miss three, even though in the large sample
it's worth more points, every miss three is a long
rebound that can trigger a transition opportunity. And every time
Luca goes down the lane line and tries to grift
and fails and doesn't get the call and then stands
there complaining with the ref while they're running the other way,
that can trigger opportunities for the opponent. And last thing,
(08:59):
this last thing I'll say about it, like I am
emotionally invested in Luca being good. I root for his team.
I am not the kind of stand like you've seen
in some of these some of the behavior where like
some of the you've seen some of it with the
Luca and Lebron stands lately, where I'm not like I
want Luca to be great. I think it's Luca's team.
I have no interest in Lebron doing more statistically or
(09:21):
Luca doing more statistically. I'm only interested in the Lakers
winning basketball games. That's all I care about. And like
my perspective in the way I've discussed Luca is not
centered around whether or not he's great. We all know
lucas great. Luca's been less great than I've expected him
to be this year, but he's still been great. It's
just now we're talking about splitting hairs between the very
(09:44):
best players in the world, comparing him to Shay, comparing
him to be honest, comparing him to Jokic. That becomes
much more of a nitpicky conversation. So we're gonna get
nitpicky when we get into those parts of the conversation.
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(11:09):
called one eight hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Jason, I was wondering
if you could share your take on how to evaluate
two way players. A few days ago, Wemby said Jokich
is the best offensive player in the world, but not
the best defensive player in the world. He said, the
best player in the world is himself, Giannis or Sga.
(11:29):
I think he, along with many NBA fans, don't understand
that elite offense is more important and more valuable than
elite defense. Is Yokich an elite defender. No, but his
overall positive impact is still vastly superior to Wemby's and
clearly superior to Giannis's and Shay's. What are your thoughts
on this and how we should correctly or accurately evaluate
two way players versus a one way offensive goat like Jokic.
(11:51):
I think you broke it down really well yourself, and
I want to give you some credit there. Like the
way I look at it, your value to your basketball
team is unique to what your team needs for you, right,
and so yeah, Like, if you are the type of
weak defender that can be really difficult to build an
elite defense around, that's problematic. But even if you are
(12:15):
a below average defender, if you can at least do
some things well enough to where they can build a
functioning elite defense around you, then your offensive gifts become
dramatically more valuable than a guy who's an elite defensive
player but that cannot impact the game at the offensive level.
The reason why is because you can schematically, through good
(12:38):
game planning, through mixing up coverages, through attention to detail,
through habits and consistency, through having good supporting role player talent,
you can build an elite defense without needing an elite
defensive superstar. It is very difficult to be an elite
offense without an elite offensive superstar. I'd argue it's impossible.
(13:04):
You need fundamentally a player that can break the defense
over and over again and create the types of advantages
that will drive success consistently on the offensive end of
the floor. So where I disagree with Wenby is like,
give me Jokic and and a good decent group of
defenders around him, versus Wemby and a good group of
(13:26):
a decent kind of league average offensive players around him.
I think Jokic is going to be able to break
san Antonio's defense with his supreme offensive gifts and be
good enough defensively with the talent he as around him,
rather than if you look at san Antonio on that example,
it doesn't matter if the four other offensive players around
(13:46):
him are all solid if Wemby can't break the defense
down to the extent that a guy like Jokic can.
And that's kind of like what the way that I've
always looked at it. It's just it's it's easier to
build a good defense around a offensive minded superstar than
to build a great offense around a defensive minded superstar.
I've dealt with this personally since Lebron aged out, And
(14:09):
you know, Lebron's always been good in his old age,
but he's not been a defense breaking offensive engine, not
since he was not since like twenty twenty one. Really ever,
since Solomon Hill dove into his ankle, we've only seen
very brief spurts where Lebron's actually been that type of
legit awesome offensive engine, like very briefly last year surrounding
(14:30):
the trade deadline for like a month, right, but it's
been rare, and so before then it was fine with Ad.
But then all of a sudden, like Ad could be this.
I thought he was the best defensive player in the
world before Wemby came around, but it didn't matter because
they weren't good enough offensively because Ad and Lebron at
his old age were unable to break defenses down the
(14:53):
way that they needed to in order to capitalize. So,
like another really simple way to look at it is
like the twenty twenty three Denver Nuggets were an elite
defense in the postseason despite having Yokichen Murray the twenty
twenty four MAVs now they ended up running into an
awful matchup for them, a Boston Celtics team that could
truly spread them out and really target Luca's point of
(15:15):
attack defense at a higher level. But like we saw
other matchups like the Clippers series in the first round
of that year, where Luca's defense was fine because they
didn't have five elite shooters, on the floor and so
they were able to offer the help when they needed
to help. Like that was a unique kind of matchup
problem regarding a Celtics team that had five good shooters
on the floor at all times, which is not something
(15:35):
we really see in the NBA anymore, right, Like that
was kind of like a unique kind of flash in
a pan kind of thing. Dallas constructed a good defense
through that entire season post trade because they had good
defenders around Luca, and then they had this supremely gifted
offensive player that can push them over the top. So
like that's why I've always get been geared that way.
I just generally think a defense breaking offensive weapon is
(15:58):
the hardest thing to come by in the NBA and
kind of like a fundamental need if you want to
win a championship, unless you have a supreme talent advantage,
like you have five thirty million dollars players like the
Boston Celtics, right, or you have Oklahoma City last year.
Like I think Shay is a considerably better offensive player
this year than he was last year in terms of
just game flow, late game stuff, over the top shooting,
(16:20):
like from the three point line. He's even more efficient
from short range twos. Right, But the reason why they
won the championship last year is they had this all
time great defense, right, Like that was a unique trait.
It wasn't any one defensive breaking weapon. It was just
a bunch of really good defenders working together. Right. I
just generally think that that off, that defense breaking offensive
(16:40):
engine is the hardest weapon to come by in the NBA.
Who do you think shoulder is the most responsibility for
the warriors disappointing season, the players, the coach, or the
front office. Who do you think shoulders the most responsibility
for the disappointing results of the years since the Warriors
last title in twenty twenty two. Seems to me there's
plenty of blame to go around except for Steph at
this point. Thanks, love the show as always. I agree
(17:03):
with you fully, Like there are certain guys like I
think Moses Moody generally has reached his potential and has
become a player that you know, based on where he
got picked, has exceeded expectations. But when you look down
the rest of the list, like I'd argue you talk
about the since twenty twenty two, I'd include this into
(17:23):
this season because of what they did last summer. The
ownership group and their unwillingness to let go of Jonathan
Minga and the fact that he was clearly a bust
relative to where they picked him has set this franchise
back because they had an opportunity to trade him two
years ago for a guy like a Pascal Siakamerno g
and Obi, and they refused. That was when he was
(17:45):
at his peak value. Now he's nowhere near of worth
that much. But at the very least they could have
turned him into Malik Monk this last summer, and everyone
was like, no, you can't include Buddy Heald. How much
do you guys leaning on Buddy Heiald right now? How
much is Buddy yield vital to your succes right now?
You guys could have used a guard who could break
the defense down off the dribble, beat people off the dribble,
(18:06):
and generate quality shots when Steph was off the floor.
Still this year one nineteen offensive rating when Steph is
on the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass, they can
score when STEP's out there, they just can't score when
he's off. Now it gets a little deeper because the
defense hasn't been as good we'll talk about that in
a second, but I think that the front office and
ownership grip, mainly the ownership group deserves the majority of
the blame for the circumstance because they were unwilling to
(18:28):
admit that they busted on Cominga and they needed to
move him earlier on in the deal, and so as
a result, now they've got him in this weird, distressed
asset situation where his value is probably lower than it's
ever been, and that's just kind of the predicament that
they're in. I wouldn't say it's quite as low as
it was last summer because now he's no longer a
(18:48):
restricted free agent and so he's technically an expiring salary too.
There's a couple other elements to it, but like to me,
Johnathan Kaminga should have been traded two years ago and
then should have been traded this and just every opportunity
that the Warriors have had to do so, they've just
not done it, and so they haven't been able to
flip him into a piece that they can actually use
when they're trying to win basketball games down the line.
(19:11):
It gets tough, right, Jimmy Butler, although he's been better
as of late, hasn't been good enough this season compared
to the type of salary that he's getting paid. Right,
Draymond Green hasn't been nearly as good defensively as he's
been in years pass. I think he's been a considerable
drop off there that has affected the team on the
defensive end of the four. That's why they aren't dominating
Steph's minutes like they have in year's past. And so
(19:34):
I think it goes down the line, like some of
the old guys are starting to age out. Jimmy wasn't
as good as he needed to be to start the year.
I think the schedule played a role too. They just
got ran into the ground. Like there's this weird thing
that happens in the NBA where if you get off
to a great start, you can easily handle like a
three to eight stretch, But if you start the season
and you have a three to eight stretch early in
the season, it can be like devastating to your entire
(19:54):
kind of vibe in the locker room. Right, And I
think the Warriors kind of dealt with a front loaded
schedule that kind of beat him into the But you
might have had a better chance of surviving that if
you flip Jonathan Minga before the season for a Malik Monk,
that helps you on offense, if you have a better
start to the season from guys like Jimmy and Draymond, Like,
I think there was a version of this story that
could have ended better than it actually did. Do you
(20:17):
think the Lakers would be worse if they traded Reeves
for men Thompson and Reed Shepherd. I know you said
you wouldn't consider trading Reeves unless you're a sure number
two next to Luka, just a better player, But I
don't know. The more I watch read, I feel like
he can eventually be something close to that at least.
So here's the thing. This is my I was wrong
about Reed Shepherd in the early part of the season.
Early in the season, I viewed him as like completely
(20:39):
overmatched when he was on the floor. I didn't think
he shot the ball well enough for the types of
looks that he was getting. I didn't like his on
ball reps, and I thought he was a bad defensive player.
We've seen a much larger sample now and like, the
shooting is legitimately awesome. And this is where I got
a credit. Samvasini This is why I trust Sam so much.
Sam is like a guy, and whenever I have like
an opinion on a young player, I was like text
(21:00):
Sam and I'm like, hey, dude, what do you think?
And I like texted Sam early this season and I
was like, dude, I just don't see it with Reed,
Like what's the deal? Like I don't understand what all
the buzz is about. And to Sam's credit, the one
thing he kept hammering was like the dude can shoot,
Like he can like really shoot it. So like he's
gonna start making shots and that will help this team.
And Reid has taken a significant leap in that department
(21:23):
to where he's knocking down shots not just on the catch,
but off the dribble at a really high rate. He's
like twenty one for fifty one this season on off
the dribble threes. That's gonna be a huge boost to
an offense. And it's been. It was like basically how
they beat Denver on Saturday last week, right, So like
that part has popped. However, there is a gigantic chasm
(21:44):
between Austin Reeves and Reed Shepherd defensively, like Austin Reeves
is bigger considerably and stronger considerably, so like even though
he can get targeted sometimes, And I think you got
to have like a more nuanced conversation when it comes
to guards, because there are unless you're a professional defender
or you're like I mean, even Anthony Edwards, who's an
apex athlete, struggles sometimes in off ball defense and attentiveness
(22:08):
and can struggle to navigate screens because he has so
much attention and energy being devoted to the offensive end
of the floor. Right, Like, outside of role player guards
that specialize in defense, almost every team has a guard
that's going to get attacked in action. So like everyone
always is like, oh my god, look at Austin. He's
getting picked on. It's like Steph Curry gets fucking picked on.
Like literally everyone's targeting shake Yios with Alexander on the
(22:29):
Thunder in action as much as they can. Like if
there is a skill guard on the other team, you're
trying to attack them in action. That's how it goes.
And there's a big difference between like this guy's getting
targeted and this guy literally can't defend, and like Reid
was getting mercilessly picked on by the Kings down the
stretch of that game, Demarta Rozen was targeting him, Dennis
(22:49):
Schroeder's targeting him, and he looked completely physically overmatched because
he's so small. And so I really like Reid and
I think he projects well to be like a good
sixth man in this league in the short term. Maybe
in the long run he improves enough defensively by putting
on some muscle and just becoming more scrappy and physical
to become a player that can become a dead serious,
like top five guy on a championship level team, like
(23:12):
a legit starting five, closing five kind of guy. But
right now I view him as a guy that is
not up to the task just because of his physical limitation.
So like to me, like, I don't think Reid is
on track to become like a guy who could be
a number two for Luca on this timeline. Maybe a
different young star guard at some point in the future,
but I don't. I think he's two years away from
(23:33):
being two years away, so to speak, from being like
good enough defensively to be able to hold up in
some high leverage lineups in big spots. All right, last question,
how can Jannison Wenby be on this list? This is
regarding our top ten list with as much time as
they have missed. I'm a Knicks fan, but where's Jalen Brown,
Where's jim Al Murray's having it insane year? Where's Austin Reeves?
(23:55):
So this was in reference to my top ten list,
and again like that was not like a who I
think is the tenth best? Who are the ten best
players in the world, Like, for instance, I had Anthy
Edwards at ten on that list. I had him at
five before the season. If you ask me where ranks
in the league, I'm still ranking him five right now.
I'm not about to change my mind based on, you know,
a couple of months of basketball, of regular season basketball.
(24:18):
Mind you, that list was strictly meant to indicate who's
had the ten best seasons so far. And again you're
splitting hairs, like how are you going to bump a
guy like Jalen Brunson off that list? Like Tyrese Max,
He's been freaking awesome. Anthony Edwards just like one ahead
to head against Shay, Like the guys on that list
(24:39):
were all really good. So I said this in the show,
but I mean it, like that list is longer. There's
like thirteen fourteen guys that you could really consider, and
like Alburn Shane Gun I could easily argue, you could
easily argue he's had a top ten season this year.
Jalen Brown, for sure. Austin Reeves up until the recent
stretch he struggled before he got hurt. I did think
he was about the eighth or ninth or like the
ninth or tenth best player to start this season. Donovan Mitchell,
(25:02):
I'd argue could be in that conversation Jamal Murray, We've
had a lot of guys who've been playing at a
really high level. It's a small sample size. As the
sample size gets larger, we'll circle back. You know, we
had a slow week last week because of the n
season tournament. They were won a lot of games, right,
so it made sense for us to do something like
this to kill some time. But you know things are
gonna get busy when we circle back in the summer,
it's a much more complicated conversation. We'll have an entire
(25:24):
eighty two games slate for all these teams, we'll have
a playoff run, and we'll have so much more data
to really kind of parse out who goes where. And
even then it gets tough. Guys like dude, the top
tier and second tier stars could very well be seventeen
eighteen players deep when we go next summer. This last
year was like I think it was like fourteen if
I remember correctly, so, like a lot of this is
(25:44):
just how talented the league is, and you start throwing
out that, like, oh, this guy's a top ten guy.
This guy's a top ten guy, and it's like start
making your list. Who are you kicking off? A lot
of these dudes are really good at basketball. It's a
lot harder than it looks on the surface. Al Right, guys,
It's all I have for today is always sincerely appreciate
you guys for supporting us and supporting the show again.
(26:05):
I hope everyone has a happy holiday and that you
enjoy the next couple of days with your friends and family.
We will be back on Friday with some Christmas Day reaction.
I will see you guys then,
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