February 7, 2024 • 42 mins
On today’s episode, Jason is joined by professional sports bettor Rufus Peabody for a lengthy conversation on the best prop bets for the upcoming Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers. During the interview, Peabody shares why he believes betting props is much more profitable than sides and totals in the NFL (5:25), why his models show the Niners as the definitive favorite over the Chiefs (7:56), the individual player props make the most sense to attack early in the week as opposed to later (14:39), which longshot props could pay off the best on Super Bowl Sunday (28:40), how members of the media have historically swayed the Super Bowl MVP prop (39:01) and much more!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up,
Drake Firefam, It's me Jason McIntyre, Straight Fire for Wednesday,
February seventh. Here we go. Your boys starting to percolate
in college Oops three and one last night, I'll take it.
(00:31):
Two and zero on Monday. Been on a bit of
a heater. There was that ugly Saturday early in January
where I was five and one. Outside of that day,
it's been a banger of a twenty twenty four in
college basketball. Yes, I'm watching some of the games. Yes,
Texas let me down, but it's like I've got free
time now. I really do have some four free time now.
The football's freed up a lot of it. But we
(00:53):
get back on the football track today with an awesome
interview with a gambling machine. It's crazy. He is one
of the most prolific prop betters in on any NFL space.
Like that's written about The Washington Post wrote about it
many moons ago, and Rufus Peabody returns to the podcast. Folks.
I'm just gonna say, I know sometimes people will listen
(01:15):
to this while they're driving or at the two speeds,
so you kind of speed it up. I'm just saying
there's a lot of actionable info here. He gives some
of the bets he's made. He some strategies that he
has in regard to some of the prop bets. I'm
not gonna spoil it. Let's just jump right into it.
Let's welcome in. Rufus Peabody gambler, extraordinary to talk about
(01:37):
Super Bowl and prop bets. You know a guy Jason
likes to think he knows everything when it comes to sports.
I know what sports fans want.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
But for everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does.
Let's just say, I know a guy who knows a
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
All right, let's welcome into straight fire. Rufus Peabody. You
know him. He was featured in the Washington Post many
moons ago as like the definitive prop bet gambler for
the Super Bowl. He's been on the pod before. Rufus,
How are you man?
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Man? That was so long ago, Jason, that was literally
like twenty eleven, So it's amazing to think it's been
thirteen whole years.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
Wow, yeah, twy eleven. Now a lot's changed in the
prop bet world since then, right.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
Yes, it's the ecosystem is completely different at this point.
Speaker 2 (02:25):
Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna start with a layup for you.
Are you wagering on any Taylor Swift props? And if so,
are you leaning toward all? I know you're one of
these like smart prop betters where you could just see
value if it's negative one thousand, and you'll just lay
the lumber. But are you doing anything on any Taylor
Swift prop bets?
Speaker 1 (02:44):
I'm not planning on it. They don't offer those here
at legal bets in the US, and so you know,
I don't I don't even know what any of them are.
I heard there was a prop bet on whether Travis
Kelcey will propose to her during the game. I feel
like there's got to be a value on the Know there,
like it was like minus two thirty on the Know
or something crazy like that. Yeah, But at the same time,
(03:06):
celebrities are notoriously difficult to predict, at least them doing
sort of quote normal things.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
Wait, so like, for instance, one of them is who
is shown first during the national anthem, like Taylor Swift
or Travis kelce or Jason Kelsey, Who's going to be
there Obviously you're saying you can't bet on that legally
in the United States, that's only an all shore.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
Thing exactly, and you don't have gaming boards approving that
kind of thing in Nevada, for example. In Nevada, the
event has to be decided on the field and it
needs to be discernible from like the play by play.
I think that's the rule there. So you can't bet
on the color of gatorade dumped on the winning head
coach or anything like that.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
All right, So first of all, let's go start here.
The last time we spoke was like in October, and
you were running into some issues with the usual trolls
on the internet. I am just curious, how did the
season go for you from a betting perspective. Sides, total, props,
whatever haves, whatever you did?
Speaker 1 (04:03):
Which season? Any time football? Yeah, So I don't bet
NFL sides and totals anymore. Full game sides and totals.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
Totally off, totally don't holy And I'm assuming you're doing
that or you're not doing that because you just cannot
find an edge at all.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
Well, it's also it's not worth the time and effort
to spend on it. So there there are what now
there are two hundred and seventy something regular season NFL games,
whereas there are two hundred and seventy college basketball games
in one week. Like if you think about where where
(04:38):
the where where? What is the best return on time spent? Like? Yeah,
if you know, I still have the mass Epeabody, Yeah,
rating system, and I think it's still I still think
it's solid, But I don't think that it doesn't have
the alpha used to because the markets come a long way,
and I think just the amount of effort to required
(05:01):
to beat NFL sides and totals, it's just is very high,
and so I can only do so many things.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
Jason, Yeah, no, no, that makes sense. So let me
ask about massive Peabody. So you said it use it
doesn't have the alpha it used to. What do you
think has changed in the last I don't know, five
six years or whatever timeframe to make it so that
it doesn't have the alpha anymore.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
Well, I think we haven't. We haven't put as much
time and effort into improving the system, because I think
if if you're not continuously improving, you keep falling behind
as markets get more and more efficient. And I think
a big thing is there's more data publicly available out there,
and there's better data out there. Now there's you know,
the tracking data. You have things like Pro Football Focus
(05:46):
with grades and on plays, you have people charting stuff.
I mean this we're far cry from the from the
time when having play by play was thought of. Is
having really great data.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
So don't you think though, that the more data we
have through Pro Football Focus and everyone else, that it
would help gamblers or are you saying it's hurt.
Speaker 1 (06:04):
It helps everybody. It helps So it helps everybody. If
everybody has all the data, then then the market becomes
more efficient sports where there's data that's less accessible and
you have to grind pretty hard to get it. That's
kind of there's more of an edge to that. So
the more because the thing is, sure, yes, we can
quantify these things way better, but so can everybody. Right.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
Interesting, So what does if you don't mind me asking,
what does Massy Peabody say about Niners, chiefs side and total.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
We make not we don't do totals, but we make
Niners just less than a four point favorite four.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
Okay, So that gets to the crux of the problem here,
not just Massy Peabody. But continue, Oh.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
You're going to say the Patrick Home Mahomes playoff.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
Yeah, I mean, right, is that not raccurate? I mean
the Niners, over the course of the body of the
seventeen games, were the best team in the league.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
You know, Rakes were really good, the Ravens.
Speaker 2 (06:57):
Yeah, But all of a sudden in the playoffs, Patrick
Mahomes has turned into an efficiency machine. He's not throwing interceptions,
no fumbles, and the receivers are dropped catching everything where
they dropp during the regular season. You can't quantify that, right,
It's just things are different. But it's a sample size.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
I mean, they're they're they're I mean, that's part of it. Sure,
But I think, I mean, Patrick Mahomes is playing at
a very very high level. The team has gotten better
as the season goes on, and you do wait more
recent performance more heavily, at least we do, so. I
do think the Chiefs have closed that gap substantially. But
they You're right, they were not. The Chiefs were used to,
(07:36):
especially on offense early in the season. It's kind of funny.
They kind of flipped around like they're a team that's
had a bad defense for years. It was the defense
that carried him early in the season.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
Yeah, it's a weird I don't know. I mean, you're
gonna hate this, but you know, I think every single
person I've asked, whether it's at Fox, on this podcast, friends,
I coach my kids in sports, and I like, talk
to the referees. Everybody Rufus is on the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (08:02):
And yet you talk to the referees. Do you know
that I was a well I was. I was a youth.
I refereed youth soccer, so I aired, I umpired Little
league baseball, and those were like the best jobs ever.
Like is a kid is it?
Speaker 2 (08:14):
Is? It?
Speaker 1 (08:14):
Like?
Speaker 2 (08:15):
Is a what?
Speaker 1 (08:16):
I guess? I started thirteen to eighteen year old? Like
you know what's better than that?
Speaker 2 (08:21):
It was amazing. But of course, you know, I have
a podcast, I'm on a TV show, so the referees
kind of know me and they're like, hey, I saw
your rams take you fool you know whatever. Anyway, it's
it's all fun and games, but Rufus, the point is,
every single person that I've talked to is on the Chiefs,
every single one, and yet the favorite.
Speaker 1 (08:38):
Yeah I have I have no opinion there. I really
don't like I think I'm not gonna have a bet
on the side. I'm really not.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
Why wouldn't you do? What about a money line bet?
Is there no nothing there for you niners? Not as
money line minus one twenty eight? Is it?
Speaker 1 (08:59):
No? I mean, I think the super Bowl side market
is a very big, very liquid market. It's I think
I'm going to attack markets that are a little less
liquid and ones that are I mean some of them
actually get fairly liquid, but ones where the tend to
be a little more biased.
Speaker 2 (09:19):
Yes. So, for instance, guys coming into the super Bowl
this week, you know mister Big Whale from Texas. He
can't get down four hundred thousand dollars on a Kansas
basketball game, right or Kenny, I don't know in Vegas.
But if he wants to bet four hundred thousand dollars
on the side, all the casinos will take his money, right, Yeah, for.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
The Super Bowl. If they don't, they're idiots, right.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
So I guess my question would be, if you don't
want to do a side or total, are you changing
your view on props or is that still the same
You're still going heavy on props.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
I'm still heavy on props here. And the thing is
with the props. I'm assuming the market's correct for the
side in the total, I'm assuming game is a minus
two forty seven and a half. If that's what it
you know, that's what it was right earlier today. I
don't know if it might have moved. But and so
when you sort of ask, when people ask me, well,
are you looking at sort of these different narratives that
(10:15):
could play out or these different game scripts, like like
what what are I'm looking at a wide range of them,
basically all what are the different possible game scripts that
can play out with the two point favorite in a
total forty seven and a half. Right, there's a possibility
that both teams blow out the other. It's more likely
it's a close game.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
I remember, I think it was you who when the
Rams played the Patriots there was a bet on no
touchdown And I don't was that you.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
I was one of the people that had that.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
Okay, so it's I mean it was that would have
been Would that have been your greatest hit ever? No
touchdown in the Super Bowl? You would have probably be retired.
You wouldn't be doing podcasts right now?
Speaker 1 (10:52):
Right? No? I think I mean, well, we hit Rams
to have exactly three points at like a gazillion to one,
So that was good.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
Okay, all right, so you know the audience roofus is
clearly like, all right, cool on, there's got to be
something something you see and now listen, I get it.
You're five hundred thousand dollars bets. You're not going to
give them out on a podcast. That being said, can
you at least talk us through some stuff that you've
found interesting in your data that you maybe have seen mispriced,
even if it's been corrected since.
Speaker 1 (11:18):
Then, you know, so honestly, Jason, you said earlier that
things have changed a lot in props, and they have,
and I think this is one of the big changes
is we're not betting stuff early. We're betting stuff late now.
But back in the day, what we did was we
basically raised other professional betting groups to betting these opening lines.
(11:42):
So when the win would come out with will there
be a rough in the passer penalty and I can
bet no at minus one point fifteen, we wanted to
be first there to bet it and be able to
bet it and bet it and bet it until it
moved all the way to minus two hundred. That's where
there was a lot of value because these books were
not seting odds on these props. They weren't offering these
props every week. It was sort of a once a
(12:04):
year type thing. But now with legalization, you have DraftKings,
you have fan Duel, Caesars, et cetera, offering like a
wide array of props every single week, and so they
get that feedback. They're not idiots at least mostly so
that they have an idea. They have an idea of
how to price does so a lot of these game
props where there used to be valued just by building,
(12:27):
Like I could build an algorithm and I find value.
I mean they figured out how to build the algorithms too.
So basically there isn't this amazing gravy train when openers
come out because books have an idea what they're doing.
So but because I will say, the market has expanded though,
and so you can actually get down a lot more
(12:49):
the week end of the Super Bowl than you could
in the past. And what you do have is the
public betting on overs and betting on things to happen,
and so there's oftentimes big opportunities sort of fading the
super stars and getting higher limits and really inflated numbers
on Super Bowl Sunday, like two years ago. In every year,
(13:09):
it's hard to predict exactly which one, which prop is
going to really steam hard one direction. I mean, I
anticipate there'll be a lot of value betting against Travis
kelcey to do things betting against Christian McCaffrey, because those
are the stars, those are the narratives. Same with Mahomes.
(13:30):
But every year there's there's you know, there's maybe one
guy that I expect to have a lot of value
betting against and we don't end up having it. But
like I still remember two years ago, you had Cooper
cup receiving yards prop move all the way from like
ninety and a half yards up and I remember getting
one hundred and twelve and a half like at MGM
on game day. Like that lasted for you know, five
(13:51):
minutes before someone bets it and then you know, but
it ended up closing, you know, consensus in the range
of like one hundred and six two hundre ten. Like
though you do see these overreactions and well, two weeks ago,
Lamar Jackson, I guess this is against Houston. His rushing
(14:12):
yards prop was lined at in the mid forties, he
had a big game one hundred and ten yards rushing.
That line steamed all the way up. The next week,
his rushing yards prop against the Chiefs steamed all the
way up to sixty nine yards, just based on one
week of data. So these markets do overreact, and so
I think the other well, the last piece of equation
(14:34):
Jason is I do think that the super Bowl being
in Vegas does have an impact here, not on the
actual gameplay, but just on the on the prop betting.
And I think we're going to see a lot more
recreational bets coming in in the state of Nevada. I mean,
because first off, normally Vegas is a destination for the
(14:56):
super Bowl. Even when the super Bowl is not here,
people love coming out here for the super Bowl party,
drinking betting. You have that times a lot now with
the game actually being here, and you know, I mean,
I was just over on Radio Row. It's a bit
of a there's it's a circus already, and I anticipate
we're just going to see a lot more a lot
(15:18):
more bets from square recreational players, which could move those
lines like YEA even further from where they should.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
Because is it safe to call them that dumb money
roofless or no.
Speaker 1 (15:33):
Yeah, I mean it's it's it's money that's looking to
have fun. I think, like, look, sports betting, it doesn't
mean they're dumb people or anything. Sports bettings entertainment, entertainment, right, yeah,
I'm betting. I don't want to. I don't want to, Like,
it's not fun to root against a safety happening, because
you know, it's not fun to lay minus a thousand
on something and just be like, I really hope this
doesn't happen. It's a lot more fun to root for
(15:54):
things to happen. And some people get their entertainment dollar
doing that. But it means that but they're predictably a
rational and doing so irrational in terms of maximizing their
expected value betting, maybe not in terms of maximizing their entertainment.
And so that creates opportunities if you know, if you
know where to look.
Speaker 2 (16:12):
For him, so fading the public. So I just looked
up what Cup did in the Super Bowl. I remember
he was MVP of the Super Bowl. I'm like, oh,
he had a mass I believe, right, ninety two yards. Yeah,
So if you bet it, well, I think you said
it went all the way up, So it sounds like
only if you bet it early, you hit it the yeah,
otherwise you lost. And I would assume a lot of
(16:33):
the random recreational guys lost on that.
Speaker 1 (16:35):
I would think almost everybody. I think, I think it.
I don't actually remember if it was ever ninety two.
I remember seeing it in the mid to high nineties
most of the week before.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
Okay, so playing that game and again is fading the
public and I say that or I know you got
you and Jeff hate that on your podcast.
Speaker 1 (16:50):
Well, but in this particular case, yes, I think you
can say that. Okay, this is the Super Bowl. Props
are rare where you'll have times where the closing line
is less efficient than the opening line normally. Normally the
closing line is the best predictor of what's going to happen.
But you have so much money, so much recreational money
(17:14):
relative to sharp money coming in, and books in these cases, actually,
especially in Nevada, less so less so the sort of
national sports books. But they don't want a ton of
liability on one thing. They're gonna move, They're gonna move
their their prices. You know, they don't want to lose
five hundred thousand dollars. If Kelsey has you know, eight
receptions or something like that, they're going to move that
(17:36):
price to try to draw some action on the unders.
If they're getting a ton of overaction and it the
books end up rooting for the same thing I'm rooting for.
That's the funny thing. I'm betting against them, but they
hope I win.
Speaker 2 (17:48):
Yes, exactly because because the recreational money is so overwhelming.
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(19:15):
terms and responsible gaming resources. Using that strategy I'm looking at,
I guess you would think, Okay, it's time to fade
Christian McCaffrey, and it's time to fade Kelsey. So here's
an interesting one. Christian McCaffrey's receiving yards. Somebody told me,
oh oh, I love McCaffrey receiving yards. It was a
thirty two and a half. I see it now thirty
five and a half.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
I'm just wait, way do you do it? Yep? You
bet overs early about unders late.
Speaker 2 (19:42):
So Christian McCaffrey against the Packers seven catches for thirty yards,
four for forty two against the Lions. You look up
it down. Sure he's had a couple over thirty, but
it looks like the majority of them twenty five, twenty seven, nine,
twenty seven. So you're like an under for McCaffrey. But
that's not exciting. Look, oh, I don't want McCaffrey to
get yards other than McCaffrey and Kelsey. Does that apply
(20:04):
to Rashid Riis Deboth, Samuel Ayuk or no.
Speaker 1 (20:07):
If you see if you see a number, go like
ten yards up. Like let's say a guy goes from
fifty eight and a half to sixty eight and a half.
I can guarantee that under sixty eight and a half
is gonna be good. So just just look at the
movement if you're tracking that, and there aren't a lot
of I don't think there's an easy way to track
provodst everywhere, but if you take a look at it
where lines are moving especially, and this does not apply
(20:32):
to think like, this does not apply to betting overs.
If you see somebody, if you see a number for
someone go down from thirty two and a half down
to twenty five and a half, it probably is a
mispriced line, Okay, but if you see go up from
twenty five and a half to thirty two and a half,
I would say the under thirty two and a half
is probably good value with the caveat that unless that
(20:53):
line move was right when when the openers came out.
So I'm we're talking about the line movement you see
this week end, because let's face it, who's betting, Like,
what recreational better is betting on the Super Bowl? You know,
ten days before it starts. No, that's not happening. That's
the The action then is people like sharp betters are
(21:14):
people who think they're sharp and and so those line
movements are going to tend to be a little bit
more more predictive. But the line movement live movement you
see Sunday morning Saturday night, like things can take on
a life of their own.
Speaker 2 (21:30):
Okay, So this is good actionable info. However, I'm sure
there's people out there listening who is saying, well, where
can I track where McCaffrey opened that for rushing yards,
So it is nobody tracked.
Speaker 1 (21:40):
I don't care where. I don't care where he opened.
I care about where it's going, like on the weekend
of like, that's what that's what you should take a
look at, right.
Speaker 2 (21:47):
But I'm saying, like, let's say he opened rushing Yards
I don't know eighty five, and now you go this
weekend and it's ninety seven. You're saying you definitely want
the end you want to try to time the market.
Is that fair to say? Or no? Are you?
Speaker 1 (22:00):
I mean, for us, it's it's a it's yes, uh,
but it's difficult given the fact that we're also trying
to bet a lot of money. We're trying to have
over two million dollars in action, and so it takes time.
It takes a lot of pressing of buttons and going
into casino counters to do that. And so if we
just said okay, let's pull the trigger now it's now
before game time, we're not gonna be able to get
(22:20):
enough down and so we're gonna be betting all weekend. Wow.
And and we're also these aren't you know all our
bets are not fading of the public. There's a lot
of other things. We're gonna betting a lot of not
sexy bets. To be honest, like we'll have bet give
not sex player X to not score two touchdowns playing
like minus eight hundred, Right, So you know that's that's
(22:45):
not a that's not a fun bet, but there can
be some value on that, and you have to type
a lot of money there. But you know that those
are the types of bets where if we have we
kind of wait and if we have some leftover money
that we aren't able to get down on other things
or we don't see enough value on other things, we
can always pour it into those.
Speaker 2 (23:03):
Okay, So I would say ninety nine point nine percent
of this audience is not trying to get down one
to two million dollars. How can you just you know,
you don't have to be specific, but like vagaries, you
have just ten people in your group with backpacks, five
others sitting at computers. How does that even work?
Speaker 1 (23:20):
They'll be let's see one two, There'll be five of us.
One of us will not be in Vegas, the rest
will be in Vegas. It's it's a logistical operation. Will
be you know, one guy is going to have the
South Point in stations and hitting those casinos most likely.
You know another person will be doing stuff on the strip.
I'll be at my condo, hitting apps and maybe going
(23:45):
to like Westgate. You know, it's honestly like at some
point one of us will run to Arizona to get
down on some of the places we can't in Vegas.
That's interesting, it's it's it's it's a logistical nightmare, to
be honest, but it's it's fun.
Speaker 2 (24:01):
And I'm assuming these are guys you've worked with for many,
many years. It's not like you're yeah, yet, Wow, that's exciting.
Speaker 1 (24:07):
So if you want to go ahead, if you want
actionable info, though, I would say props that you should
target the arecreational. Better should target, I would say, are
ones that are not offered by the sports book every
single week, so they don't have as much to go
off of, they don't have as much experience pricing them.
They're not they don't have this huge advantage. And I think, oh,
(24:30):
you have to remember with a lot of this stuff,
like they're pricing so many props, they're not going that
in depth on each of them. If you go in
depth on something and notice some tendency and a particular team,
you can find some value there. So for example, there's
a bet, there's a bet on whether a team will
come back from a double digit deficit to win the game,
and that's going to be priced based off of the
(24:51):
spread in the total. But I think a good argument
could be made that Patrick Mahomes is much more likely
in the ifs are much more likely to come back
from a double digit deficit to win than your typical
two point underdog with the total of forty seven and
a half. So if you can find sort of exceptions
to rules, that's another area that you can find some value.
Speaker 2 (25:15):
For instance, I know you guys are hammering away at
certain bets. If a random guy is firing, I don't
know a grand on longest field goal. That obviously doesn't
set off any red flag super Bowl week, but it
might be week fourteen, right.
Speaker 1 (25:29):
Right, right, Actually, this is a great week. It's a
week where props do not look like sharp action necessarily
at all. In fact, props have become They went from
something that you really didn't want to bet a lot
of because it flags your account and you could get
limited more easily to especially for the Super Bowl, like
what everybody's betting.
Speaker 2 (25:50):
Yeah, I've had some success the last two off seasons
with alternate win totals, but I haven't I haven't looked
at alternate like lines. Do you you said at the
very outset, Yeah, maybe one of the teams blows the
other one out, like I think the Chiefs have maybe
four losses by eight points in the last like four
years combined, some insane number. Is an alt line anything
(26:14):
you'd look at here where one team runs away and hides.
Speaker 1 (26:16):
So, first off my side, Jason unovated Sports, Yes, has
has a tool that give that lets you price all
lines based off of what the spread is. So if
you believe there, but if you believe there's some exception
that that the distribution is going to be different in
this game based on these particular teams, this that's not
going to give you that, but this will at least
give you a starting point with with how the math
(26:37):
should price it. So you know, I do look at
all lines. I I personally don't go into the sort
of narratives of thinking like, oh, this team is going
to this, this game is somehow going to be different.
But you know, I rely on the math there are
there isn't usually much value on that stuff. I've found
some value in different years on alternate totals, like specifically
(27:00):
mostly unders like under thirty two and a half points
for the game or something like that. I haven't looked
at that this year. But you know, people don't think
you're gonna have a thirteen to three super Bowl. It
doesn't happen very often.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
Yeah, it's just such an outlier. Nobody could possibly predict it.
What about this is MVP? Does that ever get on
you guys radar? You just don't give it. It doesn't matter.
Speaker 1 (27:21):
Yeah, no' we've bet that. I remember we had Damian Williams.
Actually this was the last, the last Chiefs Niners super Bowl,
which was what three year four years ago? Yeah, four
or three, I don't remember. Was this This is the
last one before the pandemic, right.
Speaker 2 (27:34):
Right, it was like a month before it happened.
Speaker 1 (27:36):
Oh, I remember we had the Limo pick us up
after the super Bowl party. It was Yeah, it was
a fun time. But we had Damian Williams and I
thought he should have won it there, right, he had
that long touchdown run. Yeah, he had two touchdowns and
a long touchdown run one hundred and rushing yards. But
Mahomes won it. I don't think a running back has
(27:57):
won it in Terrell Davis. Yes, it's been I feel
like it was someone in the two thousands, but like
it's been a while.
Speaker 2 (28:05):
M so you know anything on MVY, I mean, do
you go? It's super exotic and try like George carr
laftis three three sacks, He's gonna win MVP, like any
chance of that, you know.
Speaker 1 (28:17):
I haven't done that. I haven't bet any MVP tickets
yet this year, but it is interesting to kind of
come up with narratives and stories where you could see
some one of these things happening. But one thing that
I didn't really know beforehand that I've since learned is
that a lot of the MVP voting does not take
place after the game, like people put in their things before,
like before the game's over on occasion, so or I
(28:40):
was told this, So Damian Williams getting that like touchdown
to put the game away isn't actually.
Speaker 2 (28:46):
Like didn't matter, right, and so oh man.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
But there are every once in a while guys that
win it that you know from odd positions, like Dexter
was it Dexter Jackson for the Buff's right, Yeah, Raiders
super Bowl?
Speaker 2 (29:02):
Good call? Yeah, I forgot about that. He was like
a cornerback or safety for the Bucks. Yeah, Malcolm what's
his face from the Seahawks.
Speaker 1 (29:10):
Oh yeah, yeah, Malcolm Butler.
Speaker 2 (29:13):
But Butler, No no, wait was it Butler? I thought
it was a linebacker Malcolm Oh oh yes, sorry against
the Broncos.
Speaker 1 (29:19):
Yeah yeah, yeah. But I mean, but so often it's
the quarterback. I mean, think about think about the Patriots
Falcon super Bowl. James White had a gazillion, like, had
a huge game. I think we had some James White
tickets to win the m v P. And of course
Brady gets it. Yeah, but I think part of it
(29:41):
is name recognition. I think it's going to be a
lot harder for another player to get it. If over Mahomes,
if if the Chiefs win, but or over Brady. You know,
when Brady was playing with Purty, that's not the case. Yes, ye,
maybe that's that's the angle. I like, I'm not I'm
(30:02):
right now. I'm not talking as someone that knows what
they're talking about quantitatively. Year this is just this is
just me bullshitting.
Speaker 2 (30:07):
But everybody's discounting party because he's the last pick in
the draft. He's not good. He's a he's basically Budge,
a bus driver for all these superstars. And I'm just
telling you. The media sees him that way, they're not
going to vote him MVP. Honestly, he could have retuched
down past the three hundred yards.
Speaker 1 (30:23):
No, I think I think. I think he's still the quarterback.
If he's the quarterback of the Super Bowl champs and
he has a good game, he probably wins it. But
if if someone has a better game, then I think
they could win it. Versus with the Chiefs, if someone
has a better game than Mahomes, Mahomes probably still wins it.
It's got to be. It has to be like think
of this as like a replay review, right, like, like
(30:45):
what's the burden of proof? How much better does somebody
have to be than Mahomes for Mahomes to not win it? Okay,
that is a huge amount. So whereas with Party, it's
got to be you know, it's like, oh, someone was
a little better than Party, they might win it.
Speaker 2 (30:59):
So you mentioned in the Rams thirteen three Super Bowl.
Do you know who the MVP was in that game?
Ooh yeah, I had to look it up. So Julian
Edelman ten for one forty one didn't even have a touchdown.
Speaker 1 (31:11):
Julian Edelman, he he was MVP yeah, what was brady'stat line?
Speaker 2 (31:17):
I'm not seeing it here, but that's one of the
weaker and the and I work with Edelman. I'm not
knocking him, but I'm just saying, like ten for one
forty one no touchdowns, really I could see.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
That's why I mean ten is a huge game. You're
just saying because I mean, because he didn't score a touchdown,
the team only scored one touchdown.
Speaker 2 (31:35):
Yeah, it was yeah, right right, So.
Speaker 1 (31:37):
I mean there there weren't a lot of touchdowns to
go around. It wasn't like and and who had that touchdown?
I'm guessing Brady. It wasn't Brady was a runner Michelle Sony.
Michelle won eighteen carries ninety four yards in a touchdown,
Brady twenty one for thirty five, two hundred and sixty two,
no touchdowns, one interception. So I mean it's like that.
(31:57):
I don't think you can get Yeah, the last no
time sounds in a pick. You can't get MVP. I'm sorry.
Speaker 2 (32:02):
Yeah, the last offensive MVP who did not score a
touchdown before Edelman was of Dion Branch of the Patriots eleven.
Speaker 1 (32:11):
So like this was and this was before Brady was
Brady right before he this is back before he was
a superstar, when he was like more of the game manager.
Speaker 2 (32:18):
He had won two MVPs of the Super Bowl. He
had one with one hundred and forty five yards passing. Wow,
but low scoring super Bowls. I just I wonder if
a defensive player could deal it like Chris Jones car
laftis is like sixteen thousand to one or something plus
sixteen thousand, insane number.
Speaker 1 (32:35):
I'll take anything. It's sixteen thousand on. I'll take the
sun not rising tomorrow at sixty I mean honestly, although no,
but if it wins, actually I won't because if it wins,
then we're all.
Speaker 2 (32:43):
We're all dead. Yes, yes, wow, very macab turned there.
So I don't know what about like safety, Is there
anything there for you or like five or more field
goals made? Is I don't know, just something the audience
can piggyback on and feel like we're all into together.
Speaker 1 (32:58):
Don't bet on the safety. In general, the big, the big,
the big plus money things, the lottery ticket type things
not gonna be great value. The multi way markets typically
are not great value. But just because there is there's
so much over round and that that includes the MVP market.
But you see some props that are like, what's the
(33:19):
margin of victory? You know, chiefs one to three, chiefs
four to seven, you know things like that. Yeah, stay
away completely. You're better off if you want to bet
on something like that. If you if you're like, oh,
I think the Chiefs are gonna win by a lot,
find an alternate point spread. Don't go for one of
these little categories because they just take so much juice
out and and whereas the super MVPs are harder market
(33:41):
to price. And I think, you know, you could make
an argument that a certain narrative isn't being priced properly
like pricing just the distribution of points scored in a game?
Is not that not that difficult?
Speaker 2 (33:54):
There was one other one besides the safety, I for, oh,
will there be overtime? Is that asinine? There was almost
overtime last year?
Speaker 1 (34:00):
There was? Yeah, there was with the first overtime ever
was the Patriots Falcons. Right, yeah, for Super Bowl there
was over.
Speaker 2 (34:06):
I guess you had that.
Speaker 1 (34:07):
No, oh wow, did not.
Speaker 2 (34:11):
Rarely lift by you on that one?
Speaker 1 (34:14):
No, I mean we bet the no safety every year
And there was a four year period where there were
three safeties, and two of them were the first score,
and at that point, like like we have, we had
bets on like first score to be touchdown rather than
field goal, and weren't even really considering the possibility of
safety because the safety for the first score of a
(34:35):
game happens in like zero point one or zero point
two percent of games or something insanely small. Do you
remember those games? By the way, I I vividly remember
both of those safeties.
Speaker 2 (34:47):
Was one over the snap over Peyton's head.
Speaker 1 (34:50):
Yep, okay, one was maybe maybe the least well. I've
never seen an intentional grounding called on a ball throwing
forty yards down the middle of the fields. Wow, Brady,
intentional grounding against who?
Speaker 2 (35:06):
The Giants?
Speaker 1 (35:09):
It would have been against the Giants, wouldn't it.
Speaker 2 (35:11):
I don't know. I don't remember that one. But then again,
when I was in my twenties, I was like, you know,
actually partying at Super Bowls and not like not like gambling.
I mean, you couldn't unless you lived in Vegas. It
was no like online gambling in like, you know, two
thousand and five.
Speaker 1 (35:26):
Oh, there was plenty of online gambling offshore, but it
wasn't as well known.
Speaker 2 (35:31):
Oh so that's how long you've been doing the offshore action.
Speaker 1 (35:34):
No, not me, I mean i've in two thousand and five.
I was what a freshman in college?
Speaker 2 (35:39):
So team yeah, yeah, yeah, all right, well this is
good stuff as usual, rufus. Good luck with the bets
and you know the two million dollars you guys have
in play. But by the way, you also open by saying,
you know, football is not you just you're kind of
out on it gambling. What are your top three? I
know golf is one of them, and sounds like college
hoops is another.
Speaker 1 (35:57):
We'll have more bet on college basketball on Saturday than
on the Super Bowl. No way, yeah, really really, Now.
Speaker 2 (36:05):
Are you doing those obscure games like Maryland Eastern Shore
and crap like that.
Speaker 1 (36:08):
We're doing all of them. We're doing the big ones,
the small ones. There's just so many freaking games. I
know there's one hundred and fifty college basketball games to
bet on on a Saturday.
Speaker 2 (36:18):
I know you and Jeff have had like a back
and forth for a year. I haven't listened to the confession.
I haven't listened to the pod lately, but I know.
Speaker 1 (36:25):
I don't listen about I don't listen to it either.
Speaker 2 (36:26):
So I know you guys had a back and forth
about guys who sell picks and blah blah blah, and
Adam Turnoffs come on the pod before and I like
him and you know he does the all right angle
sports stuff. Have you thought about posting your college hoops
picks anywhere for people or do they move south instantly?
Speaker 1 (36:43):
I'm you know, I have a lot of respect for people.
Some people like like Adam Sure and often write Angle sports,
and I understand their decision to sell picks. It's not
personally decision I agree with, and it's not it's not
an avenue that I would It's not something I would do.
But you know, to each their on right, that's it's
completely their their choice. And ye for me I can
(37:06):
make I think I can make a lot more betting
those picks than I can sell in right.
Speaker 2 (37:10):
Because as soon as you lay the lumber on, you know,
DePaul plus twenty, it's going to move to plus at
eighteen or whatever, right.
Speaker 1 (37:18):
Right, And then you also put that information out in
the market, what you're on. And but it's it's just
not a route I want to go down. That's all
personal decision.
Speaker 2 (37:29):
Yeah, I'm the idiot. I've had a good run on
college hoops. I do not have anything like you, but
I just post them on Instagram stories and I keep
hearing from people. You know, it's it's had. It's been
a good you know, eight nine week run. But you're
doing it, Like are you doing every night? Oh?
Speaker 1 (37:45):
Yeah, it's it's a grind. I mean, it's it's not
just me, it's in fact, I'm I'm the one in
our group that's doing the least on it. I'm they're
having to go through injuries for every single game, every
single day. I mean, I see, we have this interface
here with all our games and our numbers and what
the spread is and basically what our true price is
after factory and the market number. And you know, I
(38:06):
see like u U Oklahoma, we have a flag here
saying b Yu missing starting center. He's a plus defensive player,
like Kansas State missing or you know, Kent State, Western Michigan,
Kent State's missing bench production. Western Michigan is missing a
significant contributor starting and a starting point guard, and they
played slower without without the starting point guard. So like
(38:29):
there's there's all like there's the quantitative stuff and then
there's this qualitative stuff on top of it too, to
put our numbers in perspective and realize where we might
be a little bit off. And so that takes a
lot of time, especially on a college basketball slate on
Saturday where you have one hundred and fifty games. You know,
that's a lot of that's done Friday night. But then
it takes literally all day trading to get down on
all these like we go with through betting partners and
(38:52):
things like that. It's, you know, it's an ordeal. So
it's it's it's definitely been worth it, but it's a
think we're all going to be a little bit relieved
when the season's over.
Speaker 2 (39:02):
Yeah, that's how I feel about the NFL. But but
I got asked these guys who were getting all this
stuff on BYU Oklahoma, I mean, what kind of life
do they have? Are they like twenty one year old kids?
Like you can't be like a grown up with a
family and grinding in that depth on BYU Oklahoma.
Speaker 1 (39:17):
Oh, I mean you can, if it's your job, you can.
Speaker 2 (39:21):
Oh, so these guys don't have jobs, they're full time.
Speaker 1 (39:24):
Oh what do you mean these guys your group? Oh? Yeah, no,
we're all full time betting. No.
Speaker 2 (39:31):
I guess at that point you got to it got
to right, I mean, I mean, don't have a job.
Don't go into an office, don't you just.
Speaker 1 (39:40):
This is our job. We have off you know, we
have offices, but you're working spaces and stuff like that.
Speaker 2 (39:47):
No, I mean like, oh, like a we work spot
or something.
Speaker 1 (39:50):
Yeah, things like that. Huh nice. This is this is
not a hobby. This is not a hobby for us.
Speaker 2 (39:56):
No, not for you. I didn't know you had a
group of guys who were wed like you.
Speaker 1 (40:00):
I mean it takes. I mean I can't do this
all on my own. It takes. It takes a village, right,
I mean to run this this operation, it's a lot
of logistics, it's a lot of I mean, like my partner,
who actually is more responsible, Like he's he's he's the
one that built the college basketball framework that we use.
I've you know, I'm a minor contributor there in terms
(40:22):
of helping build the projections. But it's his. I feel
like it's his baby, and he's you know, he was
a developer for Microsoft for eleven years. He's got his
skills are incredible, Like his skill set is incredible, and
it's so it's perfectly complementary to mine because he's not
a stats background and I'm not a development background, but
those kind of skills work so well together. And then
we have then we have we have to trade the
(40:43):
stuff too, and so like we have to manage relationships
with a bunch of different betting partners. And my brother
is runs that and basically keeps the train running every
day on all that stuff and so like, and then
I mean, at the end of we have to do
figures for about like that feels like a gazillion different
accounts and people we have to settle up with each week.
(41:04):
And it's it's a it's a massive operation. I mean
a massive amount of work. I should say.
Speaker 2 (41:09):
Yeah, so it sounds I mean, it sounds kind of fun,
but it's a ton of work, you know. I mean
maybe if you're at the tip top, it's not it's
not the worst thing in the world.
Speaker 1 (41:18):
And there are no days and there aren't days off
either during college basketball season, like it's if someone wants
to take like a Friday afternoon off, like it's you know,
more work falls on the other you know, falls on
the rest of us, or you know, and occasionally that
does happen. I mean, everybody needs some breaks, but we
don't really get a lot of them.
Speaker 2 (41:39):
Oh man, you know what about like having a family
and kids and all that stuff. It's just that's that's
a tall order.
Speaker 1 (41:45):
Well, my brother and I are the only ones in
our you know, in our operation that are not married.
Speaker 2 (41:49):
So holy cow, I like this, man. It sounds fun.
If you need an investor who could just put money
in and not have to do any work, let me know.
Speaker 1 (41:58):
I think that the problem. The problem is we were
up against betting limits, and so it would be it
would be easier if we were trying to bet less money. Yeah,
these are good unfortunately, not looking for investors all right.
Speaker 2 (42:09):
Man, Well I'm sure after the football season you'll be
taking a really nice trip private jet to some more
island that you rented out. It sounds like fun. Man.
Congrats on all your success and thanks for taking the
time during Super Bowl week.
Speaker 1 (42:21):
I appreciate it. Jason, Thanks as always,
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up,
Drake Firefam, It's me Jason McIntyre, Straight Fire for Wednesday,
February seventh. Here we go. Your boys starting to percolate
in college Oops three and one last night, I'll take it.
(00:31):
Two and zero on Monday. Been on a bit of
a heater. There was that ugly Saturday early in January
where I was five and one. Outside of that day,
it's been a banger of a twenty twenty four in
college basketball. Yes, I'm watching some of the games. Yes,
Texas let me down, but it's like I've got free
time now. I really do have some four free time now.
The football's freed up a lot of it. But we
(00:53):
get back on the football track today with an awesome
interview with a gambling machine. It's crazy. He is one
of the most prolific prop betters in on any NFL space.
Like that's written about The Washington Post wrote about it
many moons ago, and Rufus Peabody returns to the podcast. Folks.
I'm just gonna say, I know sometimes people will listen
(01:15):
to this while they're driving or at the two speeds,
so you kind of speed it up. I'm just saying
there's a lot of actionable info here. He gives some
of the bets he's made. He some strategies that he
has in regard to some of the prop bets. I'm
not gonna spoil it. Let's just jump right into it.
Let's welcome in. Rufus Peabody gambler, extraordinary to talk about
(01:37):
Super Bowl and prop bets. You know a guy Jason
likes to think he knows everything when it comes to sports.
I know what sports fans want.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
But for everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does.
Let's just say, I know a guy who knows a
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
All right, let's welcome into straight fire. Rufus Peabody. You
know him. He was featured in the Washington Post many
moons ago as like the definitive prop bet gambler for
the Super Bowl. He's been on the pod before. Rufus,
How are you man?
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Man? That was so long ago, Jason, that was literally
like twenty eleven, So it's amazing to think it's been
thirteen whole years.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
Wow, yeah, twy eleven. Now a lot's changed in the
prop bet world since then, right.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
Yes, it's the ecosystem is completely different at this point.
Speaker 2 (02:25):
Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna start with a layup for you.
Are you wagering on any Taylor Swift props? And if so,
are you leaning toward all? I know you're one of
these like smart prop betters where you could just see
value if it's negative one thousand, and you'll just lay
the lumber. But are you doing anything on any Taylor
Swift prop bets?
Speaker 1 (02:44):
I'm not planning on it. They don't offer those here
at legal bets in the US, and so you know,
I don't I don't even know what any of them are.
I heard there was a prop bet on whether Travis
Kelcey will propose to her during the game. I feel
like there's got to be a value on the Know there,
like it was like minus two thirty on the Know
or something crazy like that. Yeah, But at the same time,
(03:06):
celebrities are notoriously difficult to predict, at least them doing
sort of quote normal things.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
Wait, so like, for instance, one of them is who
is shown first during the national anthem, like Taylor Swift
or Travis kelce or Jason Kelsey, Who's going to be
there Obviously you're saying you can't bet on that legally
in the United States, that's only an all shore.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
Thing exactly, and you don't have gaming boards approving that
kind of thing in Nevada, for example. In Nevada, the
event has to be decided on the field and it
needs to be discernible from like the play by play.
I think that's the rule there. So you can't bet
on the color of gatorade dumped on the winning head
coach or anything like that.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
All right, So first of all, let's go start here.
The last time we spoke was like in October, and
you were running into some issues with the usual trolls
on the internet. I am just curious, how did the
season go for you from a betting perspective. Sides, total, props,
whatever haves, whatever you did?
Speaker 1 (04:03):
Which season? Any time football? Yeah, So I don't bet
NFL sides and totals anymore. Full game sides and totals.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
Totally off, totally don't holy And I'm assuming you're doing
that or you're not doing that because you just cannot
find an edge at all.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
Well, it's also it's not worth the time and effort
to spend on it. So there there are what now
there are two hundred and seventy something regular season NFL games,
whereas there are two hundred and seventy college basketball games
in one week. Like if you think about where where
(04:38):
the where where? What is the best return on time spent? Like? Yeah,
if you know, I still have the mass Epeabody, Yeah,
rating system, and I think it's still I still think
it's solid, But I don't think that it doesn't have
the alpha used to because the markets come a long way,
and I think just the amount of effort to required
(05:01):
to beat NFL sides and totals, it's just is very high,
and so I can only do so many things.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
Jason, Yeah, no, no, that makes sense. So let me
ask about massive Peabody. So you said it use it
doesn't have the alpha it used to. What do you
think has changed in the last I don't know, five
six years or whatever timeframe to make it so that
it doesn't have the alpha anymore.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
Well, I think we haven't. We haven't put as much
time and effort into improving the system, because I think
if if you're not continuously improving, you keep falling behind
as markets get more and more efficient. And I think
a big thing is there's more data publicly available out there,
and there's better data out there. Now there's you know,
the tracking data. You have things like Pro Football Focus
(05:46):
with grades and on plays, you have people charting stuff.
I mean this we're far cry from the from the
time when having play by play was thought of. Is
having really great data.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
So don't you think though, that the more data we
have through Pro Football Focus and everyone else, that it
would help gamblers or are you saying it's hurt.
Speaker 1 (06:04):
It helps everybody. It helps So it helps everybody. If
everybody has all the data, then then the market becomes
more efficient sports where there's data that's less accessible and
you have to grind pretty hard to get it. That's
kind of there's more of an edge to that. So
the more because the thing is, sure, yes, we can
quantify these things way better, but so can everybody. Right.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
Interesting, So what does if you don't mind me asking,
what does Massy Peabody say about Niners, chiefs side and total.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
We make not we don't do totals, but we make
Niners just less than a four point favorite four.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
Okay, So that gets to the crux of the problem here,
not just Massy Peabody. But continue, Oh.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
You're going to say the Patrick Home Mahomes playoff.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
Yeah, I mean, right, is that not raccurate? I mean
the Niners, over the course of the body of the
seventeen games, were the best team in the league.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
You know, Rakes were really good, the Ravens.
Speaker 2 (06:57):
Yeah, But all of a sudden in the playoffs, Patrick
Mahomes has turned into an efficiency machine. He's not throwing interceptions,
no fumbles, and the receivers are dropped catching everything where
they dropp during the regular season. You can't quantify that, right,
It's just things are different. But it's a sample size.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
I mean, they're they're they're I mean, that's part of it. Sure,
But I think, I mean, Patrick Mahomes is playing at
a very very high level. The team has gotten better
as the season goes on, and you do wait more
recent performance more heavily, at least we do, so. I
do think the Chiefs have closed that gap substantially. But
they You're right, they were not. The Chiefs were used to,
(07:36):
especially on offense early in the season. It's kind of funny.
They kind of flipped around like they're a team that's
had a bad defense for years. It was the defense
that carried him early in the season.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
Yeah, it's a weird I don't know. I mean, you're
gonna hate this, but you know, I think every single
person I've asked, whether it's at Fox, on this podcast, friends,
I coach my kids in sports, and I like, talk
to the referees. Everybody Rufus is on the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (08:02):
And yet you talk to the referees. Do you know
that I was a well I was. I was a youth.
I refereed youth soccer, so I aired, I umpired Little
league baseball, and those were like the best jobs ever.
Like is a kid is it?
Speaker 2 (08:14):
Is? It?
Speaker 1 (08:14):
Like?
Speaker 2 (08:15):
Is a what?
Speaker 1 (08:16):
I guess? I started thirteen to eighteen year old? Like
you know what's better than that?
Speaker 2 (08:21):
It was amazing. But of course, you know, I have
a podcast, I'm on a TV show, so the referees
kind of know me and they're like, hey, I saw
your rams take you fool you know whatever. Anyway, it's
it's all fun and games, but Rufus, the point is,
every single person that I've talked to is on the Chiefs,
every single one, and yet the favorite.
Speaker 1 (08:38):
Yeah I have I have no opinion there. I really
don't like I think I'm not gonna have a bet
on the side. I'm really not.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
Why wouldn't you do? What about a money line bet?
Is there no nothing there for you niners? Not as
money line minus one twenty eight? Is it?
Speaker 1 (08:59):
No? I mean, I think the super Bowl side market
is a very big, very liquid market. It's I think
I'm going to attack markets that are a little less
liquid and ones that are I mean some of them
actually get fairly liquid, but ones where the tend to
be a little more biased.
Speaker 2 (09:19):
Yes. So, for instance, guys coming into the super Bowl
this week, you know mister Big Whale from Texas. He
can't get down four hundred thousand dollars on a Kansas
basketball game, right or Kenny, I don't know in Vegas.
But if he wants to bet four hundred thousand dollars
on the side, all the casinos will take his money, right, Yeah, for.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
The Super Bowl. If they don't, they're idiots, right.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
So I guess my question would be, if you don't
want to do a side or total, are you changing
your view on props or is that still the same
You're still going heavy on props.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
I'm still heavy on props here. And the thing is
with the props. I'm assuming the market's correct for the
side in the total, I'm assuming game is a minus
two forty seven and a half. If that's what it
you know, that's what it was right earlier today. I
don't know if it might have moved. But and so
when you sort of ask, when people ask me, well,
are you looking at sort of these different narratives that
(10:15):
could play out or these different game scripts, like like
what what are I'm looking at a wide range of them,
basically all what are the different possible game scripts that
can play out with the two point favorite in a
total forty seven and a half. Right, there's a possibility
that both teams blow out the other. It's more likely
it's a close game.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
I remember, I think it was you who when the
Rams played the Patriots there was a bet on no
touchdown And I don't was that you.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
I was one of the people that had that.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
Okay, so it's I mean it was that would have
been Would that have been your greatest hit ever? No
touchdown in the Super Bowl? You would have probably be retired.
You wouldn't be doing podcasts right now?
Speaker 1 (10:52):
Right? No? I think I mean, well, we hit Rams
to have exactly three points at like a gazillion to one,
So that was good.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
Okay, all right, so you know the audience roofus is
clearly like, all right, cool on, there's got to be
something something you see and now listen, I get it.
You're five hundred thousand dollars bets. You're not going to
give them out on a podcast. That being said, can
you at least talk us through some stuff that you've
found interesting in your data that you maybe have seen mispriced,
even if it's been corrected since.
Speaker 1 (11:18):
Then, you know, so honestly, Jason, you said earlier that
things have changed a lot in props, and they have,
and I think this is one of the big changes
is we're not betting stuff early. We're betting stuff late now.
But back in the day, what we did was we
basically raised other professional betting groups to betting these opening lines.
(11:42):
So when the win would come out with will there
be a rough in the passer penalty and I can
bet no at minus one point fifteen, we wanted to
be first there to bet it and be able to
bet it and bet it and bet it until it
moved all the way to minus two hundred. That's where
there was a lot of value because these books were
not seting odds on these props. They weren't offering these
props every week. It was sort of a once a
(12:04):
year type thing. But now with legalization, you have DraftKings,
you have fan Duel, Caesars, et cetera, offering like a
wide array of props every single week, and so they
get that feedback. They're not idiots at least mostly so
that they have an idea. They have an idea of
how to price does so a lot of these game
props where there used to be valued just by building,
(12:27):
Like I could build an algorithm and I find value.
I mean they figured out how to build the algorithms too.
So basically there isn't this amazing gravy train when openers
come out because books have an idea what they're doing.
So but because I will say, the market has expanded though,
and so you can actually get down a lot more
(12:49):
the week end of the Super Bowl than you could
in the past. And what you do have is the
public betting on overs and betting on things to happen,
and so there's oftentimes big opportunities sort of fading the
super stars and getting higher limits and really inflated numbers
on Super Bowl Sunday, like two years ago. In every year,
(13:09):
it's hard to predict exactly which one, which prop is
going to really steam hard one direction. I mean, I
anticipate there'll be a lot of value betting against Travis
kelcey to do things betting against Christian McCaffrey, because those
are the stars, those are the narratives. Same with Mahomes.
(13:30):
But every year there's there's you know, there's maybe one
guy that I expect to have a lot of value
betting against and we don't end up having it. But
like I still remember two years ago, you had Cooper
cup receiving yards prop move all the way from like
ninety and a half yards up and I remember getting
one hundred and twelve and a half like at MGM
on game day. Like that lasted for you know, five
(13:51):
minutes before someone bets it and then you know, but
it ended up closing, you know, consensus in the range
of like one hundred and six two hundre ten. Like
though you do see these overreactions and well, two weeks ago,
Lamar Jackson, I guess this is against Houston. His rushing
(14:12):
yards prop was lined at in the mid forties, he
had a big game one hundred and ten yards rushing.
That line steamed all the way up. The next week,
his rushing yards prop against the Chiefs steamed all the
way up to sixty nine yards, just based on one
week of data. So these markets do overreact, and so
I think the other well, the last piece of equation
(14:34):
Jason is I do think that the super Bowl being
in Vegas does have an impact here, not on the
actual gameplay, but just on the on the prop betting.
And I think we're going to see a lot more
recreational bets coming in in the state of Nevada. I mean,
because first off, normally Vegas is a destination for the
(14:56):
super Bowl. Even when the super Bowl is not here,
people love coming out here for the super Bowl party,
drinking betting. You have that times a lot now with
the game actually being here, and you know, I mean,
I was just over on Radio Row. It's a bit
of a there's it's a circus already, and I anticipate
we're just going to see a lot more a lot
(15:18):
more bets from square recreational players, which could move those
lines like YEA even further from where they should.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
Because is it safe to call them that dumb money
roofless or no.
Speaker 1 (15:33):
Yeah, I mean it's it's it's money that's looking to
have fun. I think, like, look, sports betting, it doesn't
mean they're dumb people or anything. Sports bettings entertainment, entertainment, right, yeah,
I'm betting. I don't want to. I don't want to, Like,
it's not fun to root against a safety happening, because
you know, it's not fun to lay minus a thousand
on something and just be like, I really hope this
doesn't happen. It's a lot more fun to root for
(15:54):
things to happen. And some people get their entertainment dollar
doing that. But it means that but they're predictably a
rational and doing so irrational in terms of maximizing their
expected value betting, maybe not in terms of maximizing their entertainment.
And so that creates opportunities if you know, if you
know where to look.
Speaker 2 (16:12):
For him, so fading the public. So I just looked
up what Cup did in the Super Bowl. I remember
he was MVP of the Super Bowl. I'm like, oh,
he had a mass I believe, right, ninety two yards. Yeah,
So if you bet it, well, I think you said
it went all the way up, So it sounds like
only if you bet it early, you hit it the yeah,
otherwise you lost. And I would assume a lot of
(16:33):
the random recreational guys lost on that.
Speaker 1 (16:35):
I would think almost everybody. I think, I think it.
I don't actually remember if it was ever ninety two.
I remember seeing it in the mid to high nineties
most of the week before.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
Okay, so playing that game and again is fading the
public and I say that or I know you got
you and Jeff hate that on your podcast.
Speaker 1 (16:50):
Well, but in this particular case, yes, I think you
can say that. Okay, this is the Super Bowl. Props
are rare where you'll have times where the closing line
is less efficient than the opening line normally. Normally the
closing line is the best predictor of what's going to happen.
But you have so much money, so much recreational money
(17:14):
relative to sharp money coming in, and books in these cases, actually,
especially in Nevada, less so less so the sort of
national sports books. But they don't want a ton of
liability on one thing. They're gonna move, They're gonna move
their their prices. You know, they don't want to lose
five hundred thousand dollars. If Kelsey has you know, eight
receptions or something like that, they're going to move that
(17:36):
price to try to draw some action on the unders.
If they're getting a ton of overaction and it the
books end up rooting for the same thing I'm rooting for.
That's the funny thing. I'm betting against them, but they
hope I win.
Speaker 2 (17:48):
Yes, exactly because because the recreational money is so overwhelming.
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(19:15):
terms and responsible gaming resources. Using that strategy I'm looking at,
I guess you would think, Okay, it's time to fade
Christian McCaffrey, and it's time to fade Kelsey. So here's
an interesting one. Christian McCaffrey's receiving yards. Somebody told me,
oh oh, I love McCaffrey receiving yards. It was a
thirty two and a half. I see it now thirty
five and a half.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
I'm just wait, way do you do it? Yep? You
bet overs early about unders late.
Speaker 2 (19:42):
So Christian McCaffrey against the Packers seven catches for thirty yards,
four for forty two against the Lions. You look up
it down. Sure he's had a couple over thirty, but
it looks like the majority of them twenty five, twenty seven, nine,
twenty seven. So you're like an under for McCaffrey. But
that's not exciting. Look, oh, I don't want McCaffrey to
get yards other than McCaffrey and Kelsey. Does that apply
(20:04):
to Rashid Riis Deboth, Samuel Ayuk or no.
Speaker 1 (20:07):
If you see if you see a number, go like
ten yards up. Like let's say a guy goes from
fifty eight and a half to sixty eight and a half.
I can guarantee that under sixty eight and a half
is gonna be good. So just just look at the
movement if you're tracking that, and there aren't a lot
of I don't think there's an easy way to track
provodst everywhere, but if you take a look at it
where lines are moving especially, and this does not apply
(20:32):
to think like, this does not apply to betting overs.
If you see somebody, if you see a number for
someone go down from thirty two and a half down
to twenty five and a half, it probably is a
mispriced line, Okay, but if you see go up from
twenty five and a half to thirty two and a half,
I would say the under thirty two and a half
is probably good value with the caveat that unless that
(20:53):
line move was right when when the openers came out.
So I'm we're talking about the line movement you see
this week end, because let's face it, who's betting, Like,
what recreational better is betting on the Super Bowl? You know,
ten days before it starts. No, that's not happening. That's
the The action then is people like sharp betters are
(21:14):
people who think they're sharp and and so those line
movements are going to tend to be a little bit
more more predictive. But the line movement live movement you
see Sunday morning Saturday night, like things can take on
a life of their own.
Speaker 2 (21:30):
Okay, So this is good actionable info. However, I'm sure
there's people out there listening who is saying, well, where
can I track where McCaffrey opened that for rushing yards,
So it is nobody tracked.
Speaker 1 (21:40):
I don't care where. I don't care where he opened.
I care about where it's going, like on the weekend
of like, that's what that's what you should take a
look at, right.
Speaker 2 (21:47):
But I'm saying, like, let's say he opened rushing Yards
I don't know eighty five, and now you go this
weekend and it's ninety seven. You're saying you definitely want
the end you want to try to time the market.
Is that fair to say? Or no? Are you?
Speaker 1 (22:00):
I mean, for us, it's it's a it's yes, uh,
but it's difficult given the fact that we're also trying
to bet a lot of money. We're trying to have
over two million dollars in action, and so it takes time.
It takes a lot of pressing of buttons and going
into casino counters to do that. And so if we
just said okay, let's pull the trigger now it's now
before game time, we're not gonna be able to get
(22:20):
enough down and so we're gonna be betting all weekend. Wow.
And and we're also these aren't you know all our
bets are not fading of the public. There's a lot
of other things. We're gonna betting a lot of not
sexy bets. To be honest, like we'll have bet give
not sex player X to not score two touchdowns playing
like minus eight hundred, Right, So you know that's that's
(22:45):
not a that's not a fun bet, but there can
be some value on that, and you have to type
a lot of money there. But you know that those
are the types of bets where if we have we
kind of wait and if we have some leftover money
that we aren't able to get down on other things
or we don't see enough value on other things, we
can always pour it into those.
Speaker 2 (23:03):
Okay, So I would say ninety nine point nine percent
of this audience is not trying to get down one
to two million dollars. How can you just you know,
you don't have to be specific, but like vagaries, you
have just ten people in your group with backpacks, five
others sitting at computers. How does that even work?
Speaker 1 (23:20):
They'll be let's see one two, There'll be five of us.
One of us will not be in Vegas, the rest
will be in Vegas. It's it's a logistical operation. Will
be you know, one guy is going to have the
South Point in stations and hitting those casinos most likely.
You know another person will be doing stuff on the strip.
I'll be at my condo, hitting apps and maybe going
(23:45):
to like Westgate. You know, it's honestly like at some
point one of us will run to Arizona to get
down on some of the places we can't in Vegas.
That's interesting, it's it's it's it's a logistical nightmare, to
be honest, but it's it's fun.
Speaker 2 (24:01):
And I'm assuming these are guys you've worked with for many,
many years. It's not like you're yeah, yet, Wow, that's exciting.
Speaker 1 (24:07):
So if you want to go ahead, if you want
actionable info, though, I would say props that you should
target the arecreational. Better should target, I would say, are
ones that are not offered by the sports book every
single week, so they don't have as much to go
off of, they don't have as much experience pricing them.
They're not they don't have this huge advantage. And I think, oh,
(24:30):
you have to remember with a lot of this stuff,
like they're pricing so many props, they're not going that
in depth on each of them. If you go in
depth on something and notice some tendency and a particular team,
you can find some value there. So for example, there's
a bet, there's a bet on whether a team will
come back from a double digit deficit to win the game,
and that's going to be priced based off of the
(24:51):
spread in the total. But I think a good argument
could be made that Patrick Mahomes is much more likely
in the ifs are much more likely to come back
from a double digit deficit to win than your typical
two point underdog with the total of forty seven and
a half. So if you can find sort of exceptions
to rules, that's another area that you can find some value.
Speaker 2 (25:15):
For instance, I know you guys are hammering away at
certain bets. If a random guy is firing, I don't
know a grand on longest field goal. That obviously doesn't
set off any red flag super Bowl week, but it
might be week fourteen, right.
Speaker 1 (25:29):
Right, right, Actually, this is a great week. It's a
week where props do not look like sharp action necessarily
at all. In fact, props have become They went from
something that you really didn't want to bet a lot
of because it flags your account and you could get
limited more easily to especially for the Super Bowl, like
what everybody's betting.
Speaker 2 (25:50):
Yeah, I've had some success the last two off seasons
with alternate win totals, but I haven't I haven't looked
at alternate like lines. Do you you said at the
very outset, Yeah, maybe one of the teams blows the
other one out, like I think the Chiefs have maybe
four losses by eight points in the last like four
years combined, some insane number. Is an alt line anything
(26:14):
you'd look at here where one team runs away and hides.
Speaker 1 (26:16):
So, first off my side, Jason unovated Sports, Yes, has
has a tool that give that lets you price all
lines based off of what the spread is. So if
you believe there, but if you believe there's some exception
that that the distribution is going to be different in
this game based on these particular teams, this that's not
going to give you that, but this will at least
give you a starting point with with how the math
(26:37):
should price it. So you know, I do look at
all lines. I I personally don't go into the sort
of narratives of thinking like, oh, this team is going
to this, this game is somehow going to be different.
But you know, I rely on the math there are
there isn't usually much value on that stuff. I've found
some value in different years on alternate totals, like specifically
(27:00):
mostly unders like under thirty two and a half points
for the game or something like that. I haven't looked
at that this year. But you know, people don't think
you're gonna have a thirteen to three super Bowl. It
doesn't happen very often.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
Yeah, it's just such an outlier. Nobody could possibly predict it.
What about this is MVP? Does that ever get on
you guys radar? You just don't give it. It doesn't matter.
Speaker 1 (27:21):
Yeah, no' we've bet that. I remember we had Damian Williams.
Actually this was the last, the last Chiefs Niners super Bowl,
which was what three year four years ago? Yeah, four
or three, I don't remember. Was this This is the
last one before the pandemic, right.
Speaker 2 (27:34):
Right, it was like a month before it happened.
Speaker 1 (27:36):
Oh, I remember we had the Limo pick us up
after the super Bowl party. It was Yeah, it was
a fun time. But we had Damian Williams and I
thought he should have won it there, right, he had
that long touchdown run. Yeah, he had two touchdowns and
a long touchdown run one hundred and rushing yards. But
Mahomes won it. I don't think a running back has
(27:57):
won it in Terrell Davis. Yes, it's been I feel
like it was someone in the two thousands, but like
it's been a while.
Speaker 2 (28:05):
M so you know anything on MVY, I mean, do
you go? It's super exotic and try like George carr
laftis three three sacks, He's gonna win MVP, like any
chance of that, you know.
Speaker 1 (28:17):
I haven't done that. I haven't bet any MVP tickets
yet this year, but it is interesting to kind of
come up with narratives and stories where you could see
some one of these things happening. But one thing that
I didn't really know beforehand that I've since learned is
that a lot of the MVP voting does not take
place after the game, like people put in their things before,
like before the game's over on occasion, so or I
(28:40):
was told this, So Damian Williams getting that like touchdown
to put the game away isn't actually.
Speaker 2 (28:46):
Like didn't matter, right, and so oh man.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
But there are every once in a while guys that
win it that you know from odd positions, like Dexter
was it Dexter Jackson for the Buff's right, Yeah, Raiders
super Bowl?
Speaker 2 (29:02):
Good call? Yeah, I forgot about that. He was like
a cornerback or safety for the Bucks. Yeah, Malcolm what's
his face from the Seahawks.
Speaker 1 (29:10):
Oh yeah, yeah, Malcolm Butler.
Speaker 2 (29:13):
But Butler, No no, wait was it Butler? I thought
it was a linebacker Malcolm Oh oh yes, sorry against
the Broncos.
Speaker 1 (29:19):
Yeah yeah, yeah. But I mean, but so often it's
the quarterback. I mean, think about think about the Patriots
Falcon super Bowl. James White had a gazillion, like, had
a huge game. I think we had some James White
tickets to win the m v P. And of course
Brady gets it. Yeah, but I think part of it
(29:41):
is name recognition. I think it's going to be a
lot harder for another player to get it. If over Mahomes,
if if the Chiefs win, but or over Brady. You know,
when Brady was playing with Purty, that's not the case. Yes, ye,
maybe that's that's the angle. I like, I'm not I'm
(30:02):
right now. I'm not talking as someone that knows what
they're talking about quantitatively. Year this is just this is
just me bullshitting.
Speaker 2 (30:07):
But everybody's discounting party because he's the last pick in
the draft. He's not good. He's a he's basically Budge,
a bus driver for all these superstars. And I'm just
telling you. The media sees him that way, they're not
going to vote him MVP. Honestly, he could have retuched
down past the three hundred yards.
Speaker 1 (30:23):
No, I think I think. I think he's still the quarterback.
If he's the quarterback of the Super Bowl champs and
he has a good game, he probably wins it. But
if if someone has a better game, then I think
they could win it. Versus with the Chiefs, if someone
has a better game than Mahomes, Mahomes probably still wins it.
It's got to be. It has to be like think
of this as like a replay review, right, like, like
(30:45):
what's the burden of proof? How much better does somebody
have to be than Mahomes for Mahomes to not win it? Okay,
that is a huge amount. So whereas with Party, it's
got to be you know, it's like, oh, someone was
a little better than Party, they might win it.
Speaker 2 (30:59):
So you mentioned in the Rams thirteen three Super Bowl.
Do you know who the MVP was in that game?
Ooh yeah, I had to look it up. So Julian
Edelman ten for one forty one didn't even have a touchdown.
Speaker 1 (31:11):
Julian Edelman, he he was MVP yeah, what was brady'stat line?
Speaker 2 (31:17):
I'm not seeing it here, but that's one of the
weaker and the and I work with Edelman. I'm not
knocking him, but I'm just saying, like ten for one
forty one no touchdowns, really I could see.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
That's why I mean ten is a huge game. You're
just saying because I mean, because he didn't score a touchdown,
the team only scored one touchdown.
Speaker 2 (31:35):
Yeah, it was yeah, right right, So.
Speaker 1 (31:37):
I mean there there weren't a lot of touchdowns to
go around. It wasn't like and and who had that touchdown?
I'm guessing Brady. It wasn't Brady was a runner Michelle Sony.
Michelle won eighteen carries ninety four yards in a touchdown,
Brady twenty one for thirty five, two hundred and sixty two,
no touchdowns, one interception. So I mean it's like that.
(31:57):
I don't think you can get Yeah, the last no
time sounds in a pick. You can't get MVP. I'm sorry.
Speaker 2 (32:02):
Yeah, the last offensive MVP who did not score a
touchdown before Edelman was of Dion Branch of the Patriots eleven.
Speaker 1 (32:11):
So like this was and this was before Brady was
Brady right before he this is back before he was
a superstar, when he was like more of the game manager.
Speaker 2 (32:18):
He had won two MVPs of the Super Bowl. He
had one with one hundred and forty five yards passing. Wow,
but low scoring super Bowls. I just I wonder if
a defensive player could deal it like Chris Jones car
laftis is like sixteen thousand to one or something plus
sixteen thousand, insane number.
Speaker 1 (32:35):
I'll take anything. It's sixteen thousand on. I'll take the
sun not rising tomorrow at sixty I mean honestly, although no,
but if it wins, actually I won't because if it wins,
then we're all.
Speaker 2 (32:43):
We're all dead. Yes, yes, wow, very macab turned there.
So I don't know what about like safety, Is there
anything there for you or like five or more field
goals made? Is I don't know, just something the audience
can piggyback on and feel like we're all into together.
Speaker 1 (32:58):
Don't bet on the safety. In general, the big, the big,
the big plus money things, the lottery ticket type things
not gonna be great value. The multi way markets typically
are not great value. But just because there is there's
so much over round and that that includes the MVP market.
But you see some props that are like, what's the
(33:19):
margin of victory? You know, chiefs one to three, chiefs
four to seven, you know things like that. Yeah, stay
away completely. You're better off if you want to bet
on something like that. If you if you're like, oh,
I think the Chiefs are gonna win by a lot,
find an alternate point spread. Don't go for one of
these little categories because they just take so much juice
out and and whereas the super MVPs are harder market
(33:41):
to price. And I think, you know, you could make
an argument that a certain narrative isn't being priced properly
like pricing just the distribution of points scored in a game?
Is not that not that difficult?
Speaker 2 (33:54):
There was one other one besides the safety, I for, oh,
will there be overtime? Is that asinine? There was almost
overtime last year?
Speaker 1 (34:00):
There was? Yeah, there was with the first overtime ever
was the Patriots Falcons. Right, yeah, for Super Bowl there
was over.
Speaker 2 (34:06):
I guess you had that.
Speaker 1 (34:07):
No, oh wow, did not.
Speaker 2 (34:11):
Rarely lift by you on that one?
Speaker 1 (34:14):
No, I mean we bet the no safety every year
And there was a four year period where there were
three safeties, and two of them were the first score,
and at that point, like like we have, we had
bets on like first score to be touchdown rather than
field goal, and weren't even really considering the possibility of
safety because the safety for the first score of a
(34:35):
game happens in like zero point one or zero point
two percent of games or something insanely small. Do you
remember those games? By the way, I I vividly remember
both of those safeties.
Speaker 2 (34:47):
Was one over the snap over Peyton's head.
Speaker 1 (34:50):
Yep, okay, one was maybe maybe the least well. I've
never seen an intentional grounding called on a ball throwing
forty yards down the middle of the fields. Wow, Brady,
intentional grounding against who?
Speaker 2 (35:06):
The Giants?
Speaker 1 (35:09):
It would have been against the Giants, wouldn't it.
Speaker 2 (35:11):
I don't know. I don't remember that one. But then again,
when I was in my twenties, I was like, you know,
actually partying at Super Bowls and not like not like gambling.
I mean, you couldn't unless you lived in Vegas. It
was no like online gambling in like, you know, two
thousand and five.
Speaker 1 (35:26):
Oh, there was plenty of online gambling offshore, but it
wasn't as well known.
Speaker 2 (35:31):
Oh so that's how long you've been doing the offshore action.
Speaker 1 (35:34):
No, not me, I mean i've in two thousand and five.
I was what a freshman in college?
Speaker 2 (35:39):
So team yeah, yeah, yeah, all right, well this is
good stuff as usual, rufus. Good luck with the bets
and you know the two million dollars you guys have
in play. But by the way, you also open by saying,
you know, football is not you just you're kind of
out on it gambling. What are your top three? I
know golf is one of them, and sounds like college
hoops is another.
Speaker 1 (35:57):
We'll have more bet on college basketball on Saturday than
on the Super Bowl. No way, yeah, really really, Now.
Speaker 2 (36:05):
Are you doing those obscure games like Maryland Eastern Shore
and crap like that.
Speaker 1 (36:08):
We're doing all of them. We're doing the big ones,
the small ones. There's just so many freaking games. I
know there's one hundred and fifty college basketball games to
bet on on a Saturday.
Speaker 2 (36:18):
I know you and Jeff have had like a back
and forth for a year. I haven't listened to the confession.
I haven't listened to the pod lately, but I know.
Speaker 1 (36:25):
I don't listen about I don't listen to it either.
Speaker 2 (36:26):
So I know you guys had a back and forth
about guys who sell picks and blah blah blah, and
Adam Turnoffs come on the pod before and I like
him and you know he does the all right angle
sports stuff. Have you thought about posting your college hoops
picks anywhere for people or do they move south instantly?
Speaker 1 (36:43):
I'm you know, I have a lot of respect for people.
Some people like like Adam Sure and often write Angle sports,
and I understand their decision to sell picks. It's not
personally decision I agree with, and it's not it's not
an avenue that I would It's not something I would do.
But you know, to each their on right, that's it's
completely their their choice. And ye for me I can
(37:06):
make I think I can make a lot more betting
those picks than I can sell in right.
Speaker 2 (37:10):
Because as soon as you lay the lumber on, you know,
DePaul plus twenty, it's going to move to plus at
eighteen or whatever, right.
Speaker 1 (37:18):
Right, And then you also put that information out in
the market, what you're on. And but it's it's just
not a route I want to go down. That's all
personal decision.
Speaker 2 (37:29):
Yeah, I'm the idiot. I've had a good run on
college hoops. I do not have anything like you, but
I just post them on Instagram stories and I keep
hearing from people. You know, it's it's had. It's been
a good you know, eight nine week run. But you're
doing it, Like are you doing every night? Oh?
Speaker 1 (37:45):
Yeah, it's it's a grind. I mean, it's it's not
just me, it's in fact, I'm I'm the one in
our group that's doing the least on it. I'm they're
having to go through injuries for every single game, every
single day. I mean, I see, we have this interface
here with all our games and our numbers and what
the spread is and basically what our true price is
after factory and the market number. And you know, I
(38:06):
see like u U Oklahoma, we have a flag here
saying b Yu missing starting center. He's a plus defensive player,
like Kansas State missing or you know, Kent State, Western Michigan,
Kent State's missing bench production. Western Michigan is missing a
significant contributor starting and a starting point guard, and they
played slower without without the starting point guard. So like
(38:29):
there's there's all like there's the quantitative stuff and then
there's this qualitative stuff on top of it too, to
put our numbers in perspective and realize where we might
be a little bit off. And so that takes a
lot of time, especially on a college basketball slate on
Saturday where you have one hundred and fifty games. You know,
that's a lot of that's done Friday night. But then
it takes literally all day trading to get down on
all these like we go with through betting partners and
(38:52):
things like that. It's, you know, it's an ordeal. So
it's it's it's definitely been worth it, but it's a
think we're all going to be a little bit relieved
when the season's over.
Speaker 2 (39:02):
Yeah, that's how I feel about the NFL. But but
I got asked these guys who were getting all this
stuff on BYU Oklahoma, I mean, what kind of life
do they have? Are they like twenty one year old kids?
Like you can't be like a grown up with a
family and grinding in that depth on BYU Oklahoma.
Speaker 1 (39:17):
Oh, I mean you can, if it's your job, you can.
Speaker 2 (39:21):
Oh, so these guys don't have jobs, they're full time.
Speaker 1 (39:24):
Oh what do you mean these guys your group? Oh? Yeah, no,
we're all full time betting. No.
Speaker 2 (39:31):
I guess at that point you got to it got
to right, I mean, I mean, don't have a job.
Don't go into an office, don't you just.
Speaker 1 (39:40):
This is our job. We have off you know, we
have offices, but you're working spaces and stuff like that.
Speaker 2 (39:47):
No, I mean like, oh, like a we work spot
or something.
Speaker 1 (39:50):
Yeah, things like that. Huh nice. This is this is
not a hobby. This is not a hobby for us.
Speaker 2 (39:56):
No, not for you. I didn't know you had a
group of guys who were wed like you.
Speaker 1 (40:00):
I mean it takes. I mean I can't do this
all on my own. It takes. It takes a village, right,
I mean to run this this operation, it's a lot
of logistics, it's a lot of I mean, like my partner,
who actually is more responsible, Like he's he's he's the
one that built the college basketball framework that we use.
I've you know, I'm a minor contributor there in terms
(40:22):
of helping build the projections. But it's his. I feel
like it's his baby, and he's you know, he was
a developer for Microsoft for eleven years. He's got his
skills are incredible, Like his skill set is incredible, and
it's so it's perfectly complementary to mine because he's not
a stats background and I'm not a development background, but
those kind of skills work so well together. And then
we have then we have we have to trade the
(40:43):
stuff too, and so like we have to manage relationships
with a bunch of different betting partners. And my brother
is runs that and basically keeps the train running every
day on all that stuff and so like, and then
I mean, at the end of we have to do
figures for about like that feels like a gazillion different
accounts and people we have to settle up with each week.
(41:04):
And it's it's a it's a massive operation. I mean
a massive amount of work. I should say.
Speaker 2 (41:09):
Yeah, so it sounds I mean, it sounds kind of fun,
but it's a ton of work, you know. I mean
maybe if you're at the tip top, it's not it's
not the worst thing in the world.
Speaker 1 (41:18):
And there are no days and there aren't days off
either during college basketball season, like it's if someone wants
to take like a Friday afternoon off, like it's you know,
more work falls on the other you know, falls on
the rest of us, or you know, and occasionally that
does happen. I mean, everybody needs some breaks, but we
don't really get a lot of them.
Speaker 2 (41:39):
Oh man, you know what about like having a family
and kids and all that stuff. It's just that's that's
a tall order.
Speaker 1 (41:45):
Well, my brother and I are the only ones in
our you know, in our operation that are not married.
Speaker 2 (41:49):
So holy cow, I like this, man. It sounds fun.
If you need an investor who could just put money
in and not have to do any work, let me know.
Speaker 1 (41:58):
I think that the problem. The problem is we were
up against betting limits, and so it would be it
would be easier if we were trying to bet less money. Yeah,
these are good unfortunately, not looking for investors all right.
Speaker 2 (42:09):
Man, Well I'm sure after the football season you'll be
taking a really nice trip private jet to some more
island that you rented out. It sounds like fun. Man.
Congrats on all your success and thanks for taking the
time during Super Bowl week.
Speaker 1 (42:21):
I appreciate it. Jason, Thanks as always,
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