November 14, 2024 • 55 mins
Double digit favorites have unexpected rolled this season, ad Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter discuss if this trend will continue in Detroit on Sunday. Together they cover Mahomes as an underdog, the Browns on the road, a weekly boosted underdog moneyline parlay courtesy of bet365, and more. Plus, we hear their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, play a round of Scooch Roulette and build a tasty round robin of NFL underdogs.
It's all fun and games as they narrow down their five picks in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com
We even get a Last Word segment with Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. #Volume
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I'm Chad Millman of the Action Network. I'm live from
my remote Tommy john Home studio. Listeners may know last
night went to Bulls Knicks at MSG and exciting Bulls
(00:30):
last second win. They covered the eight and a half.
The Milman Boys went home happy. I'm joined as always
by my co host, my companion Mike and Padre might
beff professional better Sigmon Hunter. Hello, So I'm in Chad.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
What a great day today, a good football day. It's
gonna be forty degrees tonight in Philly for this playoff
matchup between the Commanders. I'm so jealous, as you.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Know, yes, because I am on night two of the
Milman Sportacular. Last night me and my son both Knicks
at MSG. Tonight we're going down to Philly. We'll go
to dinner with my older son at Drexel and then
we will go to Eagles Commanders. I'm a little worried.
(01:14):
It's gonna be colder than I thought. I'm not sure
I brought the right coat. I'm gonna have to rally.
I wear my Drexel hoodie.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
But dude, I can warm you up. I got I'm
a big coming for the tailgate brother. I'm thinking about it.
I'm tempted.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Dude. If you do, we can discuss offline. Yeah, hey,
listen that it was a very interesting story. I want
to talk about something that I read in the Wall
Street Journal yesterday. Yeah, because we've talked about like the
challenges that everybody has faced as better as this year,
the public and the favorites have been winning so much so.
(01:48):
This week and the last week is earnings weeks for
a lot of publicly traded companies, where they are reporting
how they've done in the previous quarter, in this case,
usually the third quarter. That includes the sports betting operators
and two of the largest in the United States. I'm
not going to name them, but everyone knows who they are.
They both reported in their most recent earnings calls over
the past two weeks they've had to reduce their revenue
(02:11):
expectations for the rest of twenty twenty four because of
what one of them called euphemistically customer friendly outcomes, which
is a very nice way of saying the public has
been crushing it this year because favorites have been covering
at an extraordinary clips, so much that has cost operators
(02:34):
literally hundreds of millions of dollars. One of them reported
revenue would be reduced by about two hundred and fifty million,
the other by about fifty million. To put a finer
point on it, during the week of Halloween, the industry's
hold rate, which is essentially what they earn after payouts,
(02:55):
was just two percent, normally closer to ten percent. If
that gives you a real, real fine point on how
much the public has been winning this year. We've talked
about it a lot. It doesn't always get discussed like
in our business. A lot of professional betters like to
be on the side of these books, right the books
(03:17):
and the betters like to root for underdogs. They like
to bet underdogs. The books will make their money when
underdogs win. Pros historically are playing dogs. Books historically like
it when favorites loose. So all of that has made
for a fascinating year. Some of the publicly traded operators
(03:38):
laid bare with earnings this week. I don't know if
you have thoughts on that. As someone who is a
professional better I know. Look, we've had tremendous success and
my philosophy, I know this has always been identify where
I think the public markets are going to be overinflated,
(03:58):
and then play the other side, and then look for
the opportunities to play underdogs. Obviously there's been much more
challenging this year. What are your thoughts on all this?
Speaker 2 (04:07):
What I love about this story is it's these two
books kind of thought that they reinvented the wheel and
they banned professional betters quick There are some of the
quickest bands I've ever seen through these books we're talking about.
Their number wouldn't be as negative as it is if
they would take professional money. So these guys are really
stuck in their ways right now and we all know that.
So maybe this won't help change it right now, but
(04:28):
I do think down the road they'll learn from these lessons.
That was my biggest takeaway from it.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
Yeah, look, you're totally right. Getting banned is a massive
issue for professional betters, and it's a constant conversation and
topic for people who are in the community. Nate Silver
actually wrote a book this summer that came out this
summer called on the Edge, and he has a chat
it's all about sort of the art of risking everything.
It's a phenomenal book. I freaking loved it, and sports
(04:56):
betting is a very small part of it. But he
did write sensively about how quickly operators ban anyone they
think is an advantage player that they quickly identify as
everybody knows. I wrote a best selling book called The
Odds about the life of professional betters in Vegas. Chad
Milman wrote a book and the inner play they have
(05:20):
with operators and how that is a symbiotic relationship and
what the betters get out of it in terms of
first crack at lines and what the operators get out
of it. Back then, they weren't operators, they were just
book makers. By letting people pound the lines into shape,
and the risk that everyone is willing to take, and
they're communicating with each other, they're leaning on each other,
they're learning from each other. That sort of relationship I
(05:43):
think is diminished. But listen, let's get to some freaking
games today. As our NFL Week eleven Best Bets episode,
Simon and I will narrow down our five picks and
the favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them
Contest presented by bet three sixty five. Sign up now
Stottactionnetwork dot com. We're going to give it our Foxhole.
We're going to give about our Tommy John big Balls
(06:06):
bet of the week. We're going to discuss Simon's biggest
bets are boosted money line, Underdog Parlay, the Underdog round Robin,
so much more bets rolling in line, the lines, removing
decisions need to be made. As our volume podcast Boss
Colin Coward likes to say there's a sea of money
out there. As a reminder of the favorite podcast is
presented by Bet three sixty five and now new Bet
(06:27):
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(06:49):
or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
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or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions
restriction is a plaque. All right, it's Thursday. This is
when we like to hear how the wise guys are
(07:11):
responding to our Tuesday conversation. We move lines. The pros
feel compelled to weigh in on what we're saying. Simon,
let's do shop call.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
Hello, who's there. I'm talking rain range telephone range. Somebody said,
maybe want to do in Yeah, let's start with the
lines that we disagree on. So off the top, the
professionals like the Bears. I like Green Bay. I mean,
I don't know if you want to dive into that
game more.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
But I just don't know for sure.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
I don't agree what they're saying about this Bears team.
I think they're kind of missing it here. And all
the trends as well point to Green Bay and taking
them in this spot. So interesting. They love that one Cleveland.
That's another number that you know I talked about. Gave
it out of three to two and a half sharpest
number of the week. Apparently that's all the way down
to them minus one now for Cleveland, so clearly they
(08:08):
love it. I've missed this one. I was gonna end
up being on the Saints, and now I have to
be on the Saints. Now this line's flipped. I hate
this game. I didn't want to bet it. Now I
have to bet it, unfortunately. But the pros they love
that Cleveland side, which is really interested to me New
England Patriots. I'm on the other side. I like the Rams.
I know we're gonna talk about this one. I get
their viewpoint of it. They like this Patriots defense. You
(08:31):
have them at home against outdoor Stafford. I get their
reasoning behind it. So I'm looking forward to us breaking
down that one even more. And for the last one,
we knew this was coming. Buffalo Bills. The professionals love
the Bills. They love it, they love the number. They're
just like most people think on this Chiefs team's a
little overrated. They like this spot. Josh Allen at home.
He is not scared of this Chiefs team. We've seen
(08:53):
in his career. It's never honestly been his fault. Eve
when you go back and watch a lot of those losses.
This is never on Josh's either. Why she has a
terrible drop, His defense can't stop anything. It's never really
been his fault. So I get where they're coming from
this one. I'm excited to break this down even more.
But nothing changed for me on this one. I still
love the Chiefs and we've seen that number go down
now from two and a half to two of most books,
(09:14):
so it seems like some professional money has been coming
in on this Chiefs now that have kind of reached
its peak value at two and a half. So yeah,
just off the top, those are the ones we disagreed on.
The games we like the same side. Chad Pittsburgh no
brainer game we're gonna talk about more. Tennessee another game
we'll talk about more, and then Detroit, which we talked
on Tuesday. I know Chad didn't do it because he's
(09:34):
a good guy, but I my personal contests far ours
that I do. I locked in the twelve and a
half on Detroit because I knew it was going up.
Now it's up to thirteen and a half fourteen at
most books. So there's a couple games I'm happy we're
gonna be diving into.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
Yeah, it's a fascinating board. I can't I do want
to talk about that Cleveland game. I bet the Browns
at one and a half. I just couldn't couldn't have
resist it. Yeah, it just didn't make any sense me.
One final order of business. I mentioned this on Tuesday.
We are doing another Favorites live event. This is a
(10:08):
watch party. We're still nailing down some of the final
details that will be an RSVP page available, but what
you need to know right now, we're doing it in Philly,
the fighting city of Philadelphia. It's a home game for
my bff, Simon Hunter. He's gonna get all of his
compadres from Philly South Jersey to come out, but anybody
(10:30):
is welcome to come. It's gonna be Thursday, December twelfth,
great spot called the Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philadelphia.
There's gonna be drinks, live Q and A with me
and Simon. Matt Mitchell is gonna be there. It's gonna
be in advance of the Thursday night football game for
the Rams and the Niners. We're gonna have sort of
(10:51):
a happy hour pregame, drinks and Q and A with
me and Simon and Matt, and then we're all gonna
hang out. We're gonna watch that Rams forty nine Ers
game in a bet. Our faces off in Philly where
it's legal. We're going to enjoy and we're all going
to have a blast. Mark your calendars, start making plans.
We'll let you know when to and where to RSVP.
(11:13):
All right, Baltimore Pittsburgh. First game on the board, Steelers
plus three. This was our Simon Sas Simon, I think
there are real statistical matchup reasons for doing this. I
think the Steelers offensive strength, especially running the ball, they
are an advantage. I mean, the Steelers' offensive strengths throwing
the ball recently are an advantage against the Ravens defensive
(11:37):
weaknesses and vice versa. By the way, like the Raven's
strength running the ball is an advantage against the Steelers defense.
We're playing the percentages. We're playing the long term ROI.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
I love the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna see if we
can make what do you guys quit today?
Speaker 1 (11:55):
When these teams are grossly uneven, it favors the underdog.
I will go through every single stat the litany of facts,
but I want to throw it to you first.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
Yeah, the biggest one to me, is definitely gonna be
the fact that I don't think the books have accounted
enough for Cayle Hamilton being out of this game. So
we have a defense that's already suffering. Now you have
arguably the best safety in all football, a guy who
can play every spot in the field, a guy who
he just can tell by the way the teams line
up when he's gonna blitz or when he's gonna back
on the coverage like he was incredible and you travel
(12:31):
over the field. I just knew it was gonna come
down as soon as I saw it that it was
three and a half. It was just like, Okay, this
will come down to three. And the books were gonna
get a ton of public money and they haven't budged sht.
Like I talked to a lot of book makers. It's
all Ravend's money right now for the most part. I
mean a lot of people have here taking the Steelers
team in the money line, but we've seen it early
here it's just been Raymonds money. So we obviously know
(12:52):
the trends back it up here, but I just think
the matchup on the field does as well. Somebody got
to be all in for everybody to be all in.
I've seen this team when the Ravens struggle with the
deep ball. That's all Pittsburgh wants to do. They want
to attack you downfield, they like they love anything above
twenty yards. They want to attack you. And it all
starts with the run game. So Arthur Smith knows that
it's like, Okay, we'll run it down their throat. Eventually
(13:15):
the linebackers will step up, they'll suck in, we'll get
one on ones, especially across the middle, and that's what
Russell Wilson has been great this season. So home dog Tomlin.
We are already gonna love it. The fact that we're
getting such a good number. It's still a three to me,
it just makes it a no brainer. It's just a
spot we can't avoid. We love these type of numbers
in this type of spot.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
Yeah, it's every reality says, take the Steelers here. I
always get nervous with this because how does this trend
continue to hold. We've got a couple spots here where
we are today, where we're going to just be leaning
(13:56):
into what has historically happened, not overthinking, not letting our
eyes deceive us, not trying to be smart, not saying
this is going to be the time where it all
falls apart. Last twenty years, the underdog in this series
seventy four percent against the spread in the regular season
when the line is three or more underdog twenty two
(14:17):
four and three, underdog fifteen two and one against the
spread since two thousand fifteen in the regular season underdog
twenty three, six and three against the spread. When Mike
Tomlin faces John Harbaugh Mike Tomlin twenty and fifteen straight up,
eighteen teen, fourteen three against the spread versus John Harbaugh.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
I'm gonna cut you off because I laugh at that
all the time, like that's what the hell we pay
to do.
Speaker 1 (14:45):
So everything says Steelers, Steelers, Steelers. And by the way,
if it was the other way, it would be Ravens Ravens.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
Yeah. That that has to do with Lamar two as
a dog, right, Lamar is a Dog's the biggest one
with that what you're talking about. So yeah, So we
love both sides as dollars.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
We love both. We just love the dogs in this
spot underdogs in the AFC North Divisional games. Thank you
Evan Neighbors. By the way, for all these you got
to check out his story that comes out on Wednesdays
where he breaks down every game with these cool stats.
Underdogs forty seven to thirty one against spread sixty percent
since twenty eighteen. So book it, Steelers. We might get burned,
(15:27):
obviously we think we could get burned here.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
But it's not one hundred percent success rate.
Speaker 1 (15:31):
Nothing is one hundred percent success rate. It's positive. Ev like,
this is what we think is going to happen. And
I'm not gonna overthink it on this, Like, I'm not
gonna get crazy. We're just gonna play what we have
always played. If this was Duck Hodges and the Steelers
were plus three, I don't even think we'd be having
(15:52):
a conversation. We'd one hundred percent be betting the Steelers.
I think we'd be more more confident if the Steelers
were actually.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
Yeah, and it's also in our contest is still three
and a half. So it's just like, not only you're
getting great value, you're getting a great number as well.
Speaker 1 (16:08):
Done Minnesota Tennessee. Tennessee's a six point dog here. Look
the number says play the home dog. It's a defense
whose strengths matchup to a you know, turning into a
pumpkin quarterback. The trend say fade the road favorite with
a win percentage of seventy five or more, it's only
forty three percent against spread. The reality Will Levis versus
(16:34):
a Brian Flores defense. And if you want to talk
about the highest rankings for any defense in pressure and
blitz and blitz rate and total pressure is raw and
total blitz is raw, it's going to be Brian Flores.
If you want to talk about the quarterback who struggles
(16:57):
the most in the NFL, in that scenario, it's Will Lewis.
So I know that, like we want to do the
ugly thing here, I kind of went no part of
this game.
Speaker 2 (17:14):
Yeah, and it's also I mean, my main thing is
it's just yeah, Will loves and might might struggle and
be bad in this game. But Sam could be said
for Sam Darnel. And now we do have date on
him where you know, he's been a favorite ten times
of three points or more in his career. He's three
and seven against the spreading those games, so we've seen
him struggle as big favorites. Now, I told you the
(17:34):
negative to me is that the numbers come down. If
I want to put it in. If it's six and
a half, But I told you I'm not here to
force us in to take in this at six and
five and a half. It's like, I want a good
number run back in such a terrible quarterback and will
love us. But you're right, like, don't need to force
us one in. But it's a spot I have to bet,
and it's just it's it's buy and low on this
(17:55):
Tennessee team. Even last week, like in my money line
around Robin one on the legs was the Patriots paired
with the Jaguars, and it's like I knew at the time,
everyone was like, there's no way the Jaguars going to
beat that team, but you saw how it could happen. Right,
if you have a quarterback that's just playing terrible like
Sam Dona has been playing, teams are going to stay
in these games. So I'm with you. This is an
(18:16):
ugly one that I'm happy to avoid. But at six
and a half, if it is that jet in or contest,
I might force you to take it.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
Well, I think we're going to have five pretty good options,
and I do think we're gonna have to race onto
the site after this show because there's going to be
a game that we want to get in before they
become the favorite, and that is the Cleveland Browns, who
at bet three six 's five are still one point
underdogs at the New Orleans Saints. We talked about it
on Tuesday. I can't get out of my head, like
(18:45):
I don't know why the Saints are still favored here.
It might not last much longer. Like there's a couple
spots where the Saints are a half point favorite now
opened it what two and a half on Sunday when
we first identified it? Are only mitigating factor here? Is
jamis other than that? Like? How are we not betting
(19:07):
the better defense, the healthier team off of bye with
a superior coach against a team that basically just won
the game that had to win and might not win
again all year and has zero receivers and a quarterback
who under pressure is a much different quarterback than he
is when he is not under pressure, which is why
(19:28):
we liked him last week. You got to be on
the Browns here, assignment be on the Browns with me.
Speaker 2 (19:34):
I mean, I guess I'm fine with you putting them in,
but I have true I told you I want to
avoid this game because I don't really have a good
read on it. I just I just don't trust either
of these quarterbacks right now. And I'm with you. I'm
trying to find a reason to take this Cleveland team.
You're right, maybe it's the number and that's where the
value is. But for me, I just there's other games
I'd rather bet on. So this could be your game
(19:54):
if you want to stand behind it, you're confident in it.
I believe in you. You can put this one in.
But as you said your Thursday, I just can't get there.
Speaker 1 (20:00):
Why is it just because of Jamis?
Speaker 2 (20:03):
Yeah, and just the Browns in general. They're just they're
they're terrible this year and we've seen them struggle when
they get behind, and you know it's it is. It's
a huge game for Jamis, Like this is him coming
back to a team that let him go, and you
know he's in his feelings. Jamis is a crazy person
in his own heads. A lot of people forget. You
(20:25):
can go out, you can see practice, you can nicknack this,
that Paddy Way give with all the bone. That's just
my fear is he's just gonna be trying to do
too much. That's what you don't want if I knew
that this is gonna be a heavy Nick Chubb type
of game, and I would feel really confident, like what
you're talking about, this is a nice spot to fade.
This Saint's team off will win. I win that. Me
and you both agree they got pretty lucky to get
(20:45):
So I agree with your view of it that the
numbers probably right of Cleveland. I'm just not confident in
this Cleveland side.
Speaker 1 (20:51):
Stefanski knows he's got a healthy offensive line, that he
can keep the clock running, that he's got a defense
that can be in Derek Carr's face, that the Saints
probably should have lost that game last week. They got
lucky winning it, Like I can believe all this.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
All right, put it, We'll put it in.
Speaker 1 (21:13):
Then I want to put it in. I want to
put it in. I want to own it. I'll own it.
But Simon, it is not our big balls. Better the
Week Care presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls,
Tommy John has the supports. Great games start with great underwear.
(21:34):
Tommy John makes the greatest. I believe we won our
big balls last week. It was the Saints, if I'm
not mistaken. So this week we're doing something we have
never done in the history of our show. How long
have you and I been together? What is it? There's
a sixth season. In six seasons, we have never gone
(21:57):
big balls on a two touchdown favorite, Yet here we are.
I bet the Lions at minus thirteen. It's in the app.
I saw it moving to thirteen and a half at
a couple of Connecticut books and wanted to get the
thirteen where I could. It's up to fourteen at a
(22:19):
lot of places, so that's the consensus. I feel like
we're entering the law of big numbers territory. It becomes
impossible for teams and quarterbacks to continue to outperform their
previous success and the market. It's why Patrick mahomes Ats
(22:41):
record is a favorite of more than three is so low,
Like the public expectations are so high, it's just not
possible to consistently beat them. And I feel like we're
reaching that point with the Lions. But I don't care,
Like there's no reason not to bet them here.
Speaker 2 (22:59):
Yeah, I've seen the trends as well, point to that
these big favorites have done well these last couple of years,
Like that's it's been profitable to take these favorites of
ten points or more, and Jared got specifically. You know,
he's made nine starts eleven and two or nine and
two straight up, and those starts as a big favorite
seven and four against the spread as a big favorite
(23:20):
of ten points or more. So I'm trying not to
let it scare us off. The biggest thing to me
is just the fact that they didn't cover last week, Chad,
like we've talked about this. I don't know if we
talked about this year, because they've been a covering machine.
But basically me and Chad blindly bet the Lions after
they don't cover, and people always ask us why, and
it's pretty simply point to a trend of Lions fail
(23:41):
to cover their previous game Golf fourteen and four against
the spread with Detroit, including nine and two at home
against the spread. So it's just really a spot like
we already liked the number. We like that it's Mac
Jones going against his defense, and it feels like that
was the Jaguars everything game last week outdoors in the muck,
and don't I just lay down at this point? Isn't
(24:01):
this a team that's just going to roll over and die,
especially if the Lions just come out and they're humming.
You know. That was the throwaway game last week. I
coughed the guy threw what was with five interceptions? You
expect him to have a huge bounce back spot and
this offense to have a bounce back spot, especially against
this Jaguars team. So shop around. There's I mean, I'm
seeing a thirteen still out there, so you can still
(24:22):
get a good number on this. For this show, though,
we'll take it up fourteen because that's what it's at
on bet three six five, Hello Detroit. Double digit's favorites
this year four and oh against the spread. I want
to just give that style because that's just it just
shows how things have changed. Like I used to be,
(24:44):
I really love taking double digit favorites, and this year
is kind of showing you. It's like it's moved the
other way where if the books are really pushing it
above ten, I mean, they really need the dog to
come through and that's just not happened them this season.
I mean, that's that's crazy, the fact that there're four
and oh double digit favorites this.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
Year, and it's crazy. That is our big balls better
of the Week, and we're going to be putting the
Detroit Lions in the contest that way. As I said,
you can see in the app, I've already taken the Lions.
Our sponsor, Tommy John, makes the most comfortable underwear I've
ever worn. They've changed my life. When you're truly comfortable,
(25:21):
you can bet better, which means taking the Lions. As
double digit favorites. If you love Simon and if you
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John dot com slash Favorites Tommy John dot com slash Favorites.
(25:42):
We talked about Green Bay in Chicago. Chicago is now
down to five and a half and like this was
a placeholder game for us, we could not come to
a conclusion. You've started the lean in the Packers direction,
to be honest, so do I. I think we wanted
to see a little bit about how the market moved
(26:02):
I the past two decades. I used this stat last
week for the Niners against the Bucks, and we were
on the Niners. It didn't work out, but they dominated
it and should have won that game. Going away Over
the past two decades, road faves off of a buy
cover at a sixty percent clip, the number is seventy
(26:25):
percent when the spread is five and a half or higher.
Why do you think the wise guys are on the Bears, Simon?
Why do you want to be on the packers?
Speaker 2 (26:36):
Because they're like me and they're old school. It's a
divisional home dog that's getting less than ten percent of
the bets, less than ten percent of the tickets. It's
this is what professionals do, and this is why again,
book makers need people like us because we bet the
other side and no one's betting, so they're not going
to catch me on this one. Though, Like I, I
was a sucker. I think it was five six years
(26:57):
ago where I was. I thought Roger was kind of
heading down the other side of his career. I know
it sounds stupid now, but this is when he was
still with McCarthy a little. Did I know he was
about to win two MVPs after that, But I was
always like, Okay, they'll finally catch this Green Bay team.
Especially I got sucked in when they got you guys
had Mitch Tubisky. It doesn't matter if your team's good
(27:18):
if Green Bay is on the other side, they just
always beat you guys. It's the most bizarre thing right now.
You're the relationship between green Bay like that, the Brett
Favre era they dominated, Aaron Rodgers era they dominated, and
then Jordan Love, who's not even been that good as
a favor for some reason, though he plays really well
against this this Bears team. So five and a half now, Chad,
(27:39):
I'll join the public. I'll take the number. But I'm
happy that we don't have to make this one over
five because I'm just not super confident in betting in
Jordan Love is a big favorite.
Speaker 1 (27:47):
No, I'm not either. I am more confident in betting
Matt laflor So even though it's not, it's not gonna
end up being our contest. Play Matt Lafleur on extended
preps seven and three against the spread when favored by
four points or more. That's the fourth best mark amongst
the ninety nine head coaches over the past twenty years.
(28:08):
Rams minus four and a half at New England another one.
I think you and I have sort of come to
an agreement here independently. We both kind of like the Rams,
and we know that the wise guys aren't the Patriots here,
but off of home loss as a favorite last week,
they're now road favorites field goal or more. Those teams
fifty eight percent against spreads in two thousand and three,
(28:31):
twenty nine to fifteen to two since twenty twenty. I
don't know McVeigh in this spot. He's great on short rest.
Like with Stafford as a QB, he's great on short rest.
I'm actually surprised that the wise guy love for the
Patriots in this spot. It feels like you'd want to
(28:53):
sell the Patriots right now and buy the Rams because
this was another one the Rams kind of dominated offense.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
Yeah, and it feels like we're getting a great number
like this is it's down to four and a half,
like you just said, on this Rams team, that to
me is there's there's too much line movement right now
and to pass on this value. This should be at six.
Like you said, this Rams team coming off just their
worst offensive output this season, and there's no excuse, right,
they had all their guys back, they have their offensive
lineback at pook in the lineup bit a Cooper Cup,
(29:23):
no excuse. That was just a totally fall on their
face terrible game by them. How do we not been
on the bounce back the veteran quarterback with a great
head coach. This is the spot you dominate, right going
up against the rookie head coach and the rookie quarterback
after they just had a huge road win like this,
This Patrios team's gonna be feeling themselves all week, and
then on the flip side, this other team is going
to be raging. So the Rams have to roll here
(29:46):
if they If they don't Chad, I don't know what
kind of purgatory will put them into. But it's like,
this is clearly not a playoff team if they don't
come out and dominate this game. This is a team.
If this is a game, if you are a legit
playoff team who's gonna make a wild card run, you
have to win this game and you have to kind
of put it away by I think seven points are
more so I love this number and I'm happy you're
on the same side with me.
Speaker 1 (30:06):
Yeah, to me, this feels like a no brainer for
the contest. The only question is we had the Rams
as a foxhole last week. Do we want to go
Rams foxhole again? Because we are clearly on the opposite
side of the professionals.
Speaker 2 (30:19):
I love it.
Speaker 1 (30:21):
Let's do it. Let's put the Rams in the foxhole.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
a city. I'm a foxhole guy.
Speaker 1 (30:30):
I can't think of a better tandem to be in
with than Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford. We love betting
on Matthew Stafford. I'm not afraid of it. We're going
even the foxhole with the Los Angeles Rams minus four
and a half against the New England Patriots. Another game.
I love this one too, and you and I have
not talked about it enough. Colts plus four at the
(30:54):
New York Jets went from four to three and a
half since we last met. Also, since we last met,
Anthony Richardson back in the starting lineup. Soon after that,
the line moved back to Colts plus four. Are you
as in love with the Colts in this game as
(31:15):
I am?
Speaker 2 (31:17):
No, I'm not. No, No, you're not. I'm betting it
because I think it's a good number. I don't think
this Jets team should be a four point favorite against anybody,
but I don't know how, I don't know the I
don't know the mood of the team, Chad, like everything
outside the numbers and all the data. The human element
of this is what scares me because we talked about
I don't like when teams have their owners making all
(31:39):
the decisions. And I said it from the get go.
There was something funky about the whole way they made
Flaco the quarterback. The team reacted to it negatively. Flacco
turned back into a pumpkin. He didn't handle it well either.
And now it's all back on to Anthony Richardsons shoulders.
And he's what twenty two to twenty three years old,
and the guy's made nine starts. It's just, oh man,
it's a brutal they're putting this kid in like this
(32:01):
is just a year. You should have just let him
play it out. This was his rookie season. They just
I hate that the NFL moves so quick they judge
these kids because it's what because he was two for
fifteen passing in that first half, That's why they did it.
It's like we knew the kids weakness is coming out.
He was terrible at throwing the ball to the guy underneath.
He just literally can't hit it. But he's a great
(32:22):
deep ball thrower, so it's like they know what they
need to work on. It's all about how you get
taxed these next couple of years. But his mental might
be shot now. We don't know what he's This kid's
gone through these last couple of weeks. So that's why
it's like I'll bet it. It's the same thing like
I'd rather do Cleveland than take this number with you, Chad,
It's like this one, we're strictly betting the number. At
least Cleveland. I can see them winning. Like I think
(32:44):
they are the better team than the Saints, where the
Jets are the better team, They're just they're just another
team that's just lost overall. Like you said, they don't
have a head coach. That's a huge advantage to that
Colts team. So that's another reason why I'm playing that
plus four numbers. So it's just a number that I'm
not confident. There's other games I'd rather bet, but Anthewy interesson.
(33:04):
We'll see how he can handle adversary. Look, this is
a huge game where if they win this, this could
change their whole season. If they lose it, we could
easily just see this keep getting worse and worse for
this Colts team, because this Jets team, we said it
last week, they look like they quit. So we'll see
which one of these teams is ready for vacation, which
team is actually not given up yet on their season.
Speaker 1 (33:23):
Here's why I like this, and this is part of betting,
and it's something that every regular better has to manage,
which is their own personal biases and the things that
matter the most of them when they're breaking down these games.
And we've generally liked the Colts because we like Shane
Steichen's a play caller, at least we did last year
(33:46):
and still do. And we love their running game right
Their run blocking unit number one in the NFL. Their
offensive line when it comes to run blocking is elite.
Jonathan Taylor is a great running back. Gain more than
one hundred yards last week against the Bills. It's why
we liked that game last week. And if not for
(34:07):
the Joe Flacco turning into Batter Flacco, then I still
contend we cover that game. I know it's a ludicrous
argument if if but like the Jets run defense is terrible.
We saw it last week. They can't tackle. They're afraid
to tackle. They don't want to put their nose in it.
If I'm Shane Steichen and I can run the ball
(34:31):
and I can dominate that way, and I get Anthony
Richardson back, then all of a sudden, I've got another
running threat against a defense that is chaos, and really
it doesn't have anything to hang its hat on right now.
So I like it actually more at four with Anthony
Richardson than I do with Joe Flacco. We don't have
to put it in, but my reverse psychology might have
(34:53):
worked because now I get to put Cleveland in. That's fair,
all right. So Atlanta at Denver, Atlanta's two and a half.
I'm surprised that didn't come up in sharp calls because
I feel like the wise guys are on Denver and
you and I both like Atlanta.
Speaker 2 (35:13):
Yeah, and it's just a game where it's it's not
honestly as heavy as you think it would be on
that Denver team. For the professionals, I think they liked
the early number right. They grabbed it when it was
one one and a half. Now that's up to two
and a half. Either guys are avoiding or people are
like you and me, right, we're taking the other side
in this, So I don't know where you're at with Atlanta.
It's feeling like a little chalky to me that like
(35:35):
it's of course we're taking this Kirk Cousins a two
point dog to bow Nicks. I'm just worried there's something
I'm missing here because this does feel easy, Like when
we talked on Tuesday, It's like I thought this was
gonna be one of my bigger bets. I've kind of
pulled back from it because there's other games I like more,
but it's it's shocking it's still two and a half
on this Atlanta team. I just don't know what I'm missing.
Speaker 1 (35:57):
Yeah, I'm you know what I put in the notes.
I really can't believe this line hasn't moved.
Speaker 2 (36:02):
Yeah, like what are.
Speaker 1 (36:02):
And it turned me off in the same way I
think it turned you off the past forty eight hours.
And again you and I haven't talked about it. I
like things to be fresh for the show, but I
have not put much. I don't think I put any
money on the Falcons yet.
Speaker 2 (36:21):
I bet it, but I'm with you, it's like I
bet it. I'm like, ah, should I just put that
much money. I just put on that like I should
have been patient.
Speaker 1 (36:28):
Well, it's not a contest play to me, and I
think on Tuesday, if you had asked me on Tuesday,
I was probably gung ho putting in this in the contest.
And it's definitely faded out of the top six or
seven for me at this point. Like Kirk Cousins off
a loss, straight up off a loss, he's great, But
(36:50):
I do worry about the pressure that the Broncos can
get on Kirk Cousins in this game, and the lack
of pressure the Falcons and create for bo Nix, who's
just clearly getting more and more confident each and every week.
And if I'm the Broncos, I'm emboldened by what happened
(37:11):
against the Chiefs, Like I look at that and think, wait,
we can play here, Like this was not us like
being a bad team. This was just they made a
great play in the exact right spot. They're the champions.
What can we learn from this? I don't know. I'm
a little more nervous about it than I was, so
I'm glad we're on the same page. Meanwhile, I mentioned
(37:34):
up top with the Steelers We're just going to keep
playing with fire, right the Steelers plus three Every week
we say raw Rob Mike Tomlin, and we take it,
even though it feels kind of chalky and cliche at
this point. Same thing with the Kansas City Chiefs, who
are now two point dogs at Buffalo. It's come down
(37:57):
from two and a half. This was my ex decision
this week. The wise guys you said they were on Buffalo,
they bettered at the two and a half. A little
bit of buyback. All the precedent tells you not to
overthink it. You said it on Sunday, you said it
again on Tuesday. Do not go too deep into the matchup.
Take Patrick Mahomes. Why don't the wise guys agree with us?
Speaker 2 (38:21):
I honestly think it's all about what groof Tree talked to.
I would say that some guys are like me that
just they've learned from going against Mahomes in the past
that there's just don't don't listen to your model, stop
thinking you know more, you just bet Mahomes. It's that
kind of thing where the other side is just we
all know what they know. Right. This Chiefs team isn't
(38:44):
that good as people perceived. They've gotten extremely lucky this season.
They do have injuries that effective this team, like number
one receiver and their number one running back. That's a
huge thing to a team like that that needs those
explosive plays, right, and we've kind of seen they've just
figured it out out where they've dinked and dunked their
way down the field. Now they're kind of back to
what they were last year of just a slow, ugly,
(39:06):
drag it out kind of offense and that relies heavily
on their defense. And when we look at this matchup,
the biggest thing to me is just the pattern we've
talked about that we think that we've nailed with the
Bills and this team this season, which is if they're
playing a bad team, they can roll you. I mean,
we've seen it now with Joe Brady in this offense,
him calling it. They can run it down team's throats
(39:28):
if they're able to. The Chiefs aren't that type of team,
and you know, we saw it with Houston. They struggled,
they lost by three, and then they got rolled by
that Ravens team. So we've seen them face good playoff
teams and they've lost this year. This Buffalo team and
here comes the Chiefs we perceived to be a good
playoff team. I just think it's going to be tight.
And that that two and a half, which is such
(39:50):
a key number we always talk about. That felt like
to me, that's where all the value was on this number.
So Mahomes and the dog, we know, brain want to
be on it. The fact that we were getting two
and a half, I mean, chop around people. We we
just said there's it's two now at bet three sixty five.
There's still a couple two and a halfs out there.
Make sure you grab that number. We always talk about
such a key number. So I I am surprised that
(40:12):
the money has moved this number back down because it
seemed like the books were going to take a position
right when they moved the all way up to two
and a half. I don't know if you agree with me.
I was like, oh, this might get to three. Like
they're clearly taking a position here on the bills. They
think they have a good read on it. But they've
humbly moved it back down. So it seems like even
the books are a little unasure how to price this
game on this number.
Speaker 1 (40:32):
I was convinced Monday when it didn't get to three,
because it got to two and a half right away
that it was just staying there. So I betted at
two and a half Kansas City on Monday. It's been holden.
I'm not surprised at all now that it's gotten back
down to two. I wouldn't be surprised if comes Sunday.
We've seen so much money, especially since Betty became legal,
(40:55):
come in on Sunday between eleven and one, so it's
like so hard to be patient during the week and like,
no that you might be able to get the number
you want on Sunday. I actually think the number is
going to get lower. I think it's going to go
in the direction of the Chiefs because it's the Chiefs.
They're undefeated. Most people are going to want to bet them.
Speaker 2 (41:16):
Oh, the money line, the teaser exposure, they're getting hammered
right now with it.
Speaker 1 (41:20):
I think, like you, if you want the Chiefs, get
it now, because I don't think it's going to get
any better for you. A couple of stats keep in
mind we've mentioned them before. Mahomes eleven and three straight
up as an underdog, twelve one and one against the spread.
This is the best straight up mark as a dog
in the Super Bowl era for a QB with at
(41:43):
least ten starts. Of course, that one against the spread
loss came as an underdog in twenty twenty two at
home against Josh Allen and the Bills. They lost by four,
so two and a half point underdog also twenty six
to eight, and one in his career as a favorite
of three or fewer that is Mahomes And the other
(42:03):
thing I will say, like the Bills are not in
a great spot health wise. We talk about the Chiefs
and Isaiah p. Checko not back this week, or Rashi
Rice he's out right, but Kean Coleman not playing, Dalton
Kinkaid has a cast on his hand, Amari Cooper not playing.
(42:27):
They've got some issues on their offensive line. They're not perfect, Chad,
Before we go any further, just wanted to break into
the show here to give my beloved Buffalo Bills a
little pep talk. And who better to deliver this message
than my favorite coach all time, coach Pete Bell, played
by Nick Nolty in the seminal nineteen ninety four film
(42:50):
Blue Chips. Coach Bell, let him hear.
Speaker 2 (42:53):
It, all right, boys, we got a job to do now.
Goddamn it, We're not I'm going out there to make
a good show or just put up a good fight.
Speaker 1 (43:04):
We're going out there to beat the best goddamn team
in the country.
Speaker 2 (43:07):
Right now. Let me tell you something. Boys, you may
not know this, but I know it. There is the
talent in this room to do just that. He'll tell
them exactly what we're gonna do. I'll give them our offense.
I'll give them our defense because it's not what you do,
goddamn it, it's how you do it. And we're gonna
go nose to nose with him, and you're gonna play
better than you ever dreamed of, because goddamn it, that's
(43:28):
what I've have. Man of you. Good luck boys, give
him help the Bills. Make me a wanna.
Speaker 1 (43:35):
Last game we want to talk about. This was an
alternate foxhol so I do want us to go through it.
We're sort of leaning Chargers right now minus one and
a half against the Bengals. Maybe we're like on the
wrong side of the wave now with the Chargers because
we've avoided the Chargers. We've said they're a little bit
too vanilla. We didn't believe they were good enough to
(43:57):
beat good teams. Now all of a sudden, we've changedtoon
and they could beat a good quarterback, which they haven't
done this year. They've lost the Mahomes, they've lost to
Kyler Murray. But maybe we're snake bitten. They've basically done
things they don't do the things that have burned us
the most. They don't make bad coaching decisions, they don't
(44:19):
make bad penalties at the worst possible time. They don't
turn the ball over. So now we like the Chargers.
We're not gonna put them in the contest, I don't think,
But give me your take here, I.
Speaker 2 (44:29):
Wouldn't mind putting them in. I love the Chargers in
the spot. This is probably gonna end up being one
of my bigger bets. I just love the number. Love
this team, and the biggest thing I love about him
is that they're not the Cincinnati Bengals team. Shead, I
think this is one of the more overrated teams of
this season. You're like me, though, you love Joe Burrow
and he kind of blinds you to it.
Speaker 1 (44:46):
Love them.
Speaker 2 (44:48):
They're not good, this Bengals team. And I've thought that
all season, and I remember I was giving you a
hard time when they when you took them against the Eagles,
and it's just like, I think they're going to struggle
against good defense, and they've been very fortunate this season.
They really haven't faced many good defenses. And you know,
the public is a little blind to it right now
(45:09):
because what we just saw them put up forty one
against the Raiders two weeks ago, then last week in
a primetime game, they put up thirty four. Like people
right now are just like this offense is a juggernaut,
They're unstoppable. We'll see like they're about to face another
really good defense, and I think that's gonna be the
difference here is the Chargers. They'll be patient, they'll wait.
(45:30):
Joe Burrow is gonna force one in there, They'll make
him make a mistake and that's when this Chargers team,
to me, will kind of take this game by the
rains and take a lead. So this is gonna be
to me, the biggest public side of the week. Everyone,
every bookmaker I've talked to it. Basically every teaser they've
gotten too far as the Chiefs Bengals teaser like, they
just can't stop taking those type of teasers, right now,
(45:51):
which makes total sense. You're getting Joe Burrow up to
seven and a half, which is a pretty good number
against his Chargers team in most people's minds. But I
could see this Chargers team rolling. It's just a team
that's kind of been slept on this season. Like you said,
we've even slept on them where we were just unsure
about what their identity was gonna be, and they've taken
on just this really smart team that plays stout defense.
(46:12):
I think that's something that's gonna give trouble with this
Bengals team. So even if this does turn into a
QB battle, I'm not too thrown off with it being
herbering his weapons. It feels like he's gotten more comfortable
to here down the road. So do I wish this
one kept going down? It woud been great to get
the Chargers of the dog. I thought it would keep
moving that way. This number is not bud despite just
(46:34):
about nine money nine percent of the tickets coming in
on that Bengals side. So we talked all the time.
There's certain games I like to dig my heels and
on this is gonna be one of them. We're primetime game,
which everyone's on a road dog. Uh, usually is not
good for these people.
Speaker 1 (46:49):
Well, that's when you say you're digging your heels. It
feels like you want to take a position and put
them in the contest. And now we're gonna have a
challenge because I think we got we got if as
I see it, seven games we like for the contest,
so we'll have to narrow it down after the show.
I think the games that we like the most Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit,
(47:14):
we like the Rams, Kansas City, the Chargers. I think
that's actually six, So it's gonna come Maybe it's coming
down to the Chargers in the Browns. Maybe it's coming
down to the Chargers in the Rams. Are we gonna
want like a road favorite in there and a big
favorite and a short home favorite that's going against what
(47:35):
the public is doing. That's gonna be it's gonna be exciting.
Each week we give out a two team money line
underdog parlay Bet three six five boosts the odds and
highlights it on their site all weekend under both game pages.
Remember both games were eligible for Bet three six fives
early payout promo, where your money line pick gets marked
(47:56):
as a win. If that money line pick takes a
seven team point lead even if they lose. I've benefit
from this myself. If you want to bet this better
at bet three six five this week's boosted parlay Steelers
plus the Chiefs. Find the boost under either the Steelers
or Chiefs game page. I'm bet three sixty five.
Speaker 2 (48:21):
There will come up payday. Hallelu yo, wanna pay day?
There will come.
Speaker 1 (48:26):
Up payday some day.
Speaker 2 (48:28):
Some day there, I will come up heayday.
Speaker 1 (48:31):
Hallelu yo.
Speaker 3 (48:32):
Wanna payday.
Speaker 2 (48:33):
I will come up payday some day.
Speaker 1 (48:38):
Simon. This is where I thought we would land for
our underdog round. Robin. Tell me if you disagree. Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Indianapolis, Cleveland.
Speaker 2 (48:55):
Uh, Cleveland is minus one tenth. So I'm gonna make
you sadly have to take that one out. Let's pair
up another long shot with that Coats one, because I
we're the type where you're getting to the point of
the season where it's like you want to take these
ugly dogs, like just like the Patriots last week, right
every now and then they're in, they're going to keep popping.
How do we not throw Tennessee?
Speaker 1 (49:13):
Yeah, that's what I thought you were going to say.
Speaker 2 (49:14):
I know, like, no one's betting them they're plus two
oh five. Come on, this would be such a shocker,
and I love those type of bets.
Speaker 1 (49:22):
Give me your biggest bets. Then right now you mentioned
the Chargers. Where are your biggest bets?
Speaker 2 (49:26):
They're not yet Chargers because I, like I said, I
felt the public would really hammer that that number on
the Bengals and I'd get a better number. But it
looks like I'm just gonna have to suck it up
and take this minus one and a half two and
a half chiefs if you can still find it. That's
no brown, no doubt aboucking with my bigger bets, Pittsburgh.
I was hoping we'd still get the three and a half.
Chat we've seen now it's the books are going to hold.
(49:48):
Now on the three, I haven't broken yet. Like my
early heavy money was on the three and a half.
Haven't touched the three yet. I'm gonna give in. This
will be one of my bigger bets if it just
stays of the three. I don't hate taking the three.
I just want the three and a half. You know
it is so those two they jumped out right away,
And then right now, I mean shockingly Detroit. I've just
been hammering it at thirteen. I was just all over
(50:11):
it thirteen and a half. I've played a little bit
of fourteen. I've slowed down a little bit just because
it's hitting that point of I don't think they're gonna push,
but it's like the value Obviously I've shifted at this point.
But I really do love Detroit in this spot with this.
Speaker 1 (50:24):
Number, and I love that about you. I love that
you and I independently who says we can't adjust? Fucking
love that you and I are both going balls to
the wall on a two touchdown favorite in the Detroit
Lions Scoots Roulette. Last week we both lost. Who's your pick?
(50:50):
This week?
Speaker 2 (50:52):
When all hope is lost, all this left is relief.
Speaker 3 (50:56):
Let's play Scoots Roulette?
Speaker 2 (51:00):
I mean depends. Well, they let me get Chiefs two
and a half.
Speaker 1 (51:03):
Give me Chiefs two and a half.
Speaker 2 (51:05):
All right, I appreciate you. Give me, give me the boring,
the safe play. I need to get back on my
winning ways. Give me Chiefs two and a half.
Speaker 1 (51:11):
So I narrowed it down to the Rams, Detroit and
Indie and the fact that you love Detroit as much
as you do if you can give me the lowest
available price on Detroit that is on the board anywhere
I want to take Detroit.
Speaker 2 (51:26):
There's a thirteen out there, all.
Speaker 1 (51:27):
Right, then I'm taking Detroit minus thirteen.
Speaker 2 (51:30):
The most public book there is, so it doesn't matter.
Speaker 1 (51:32):
I'll take it. Customer Friendly decisions have been made. I'm
getting a customer friendly line.
Speaker 2 (51:41):
True.
Speaker 1 (51:42):
Listen, Before we get out of here, let's bring in
our director of research, Evan Abrams, for the final word.
He's going to make us feel so much better about
everything we've said today.
Speaker 2 (51:52):
The last word with Evan Abrams, we're finished talking.
Speaker 3 (51:58):
It would have been crazy a few years ago, just
that we were starting a game down fourteen points and
we had the Lions. But that's where we sit today.
All right, Let's talk about the Chiefs because that's the
game of the weekend. Here's a nugget I kind of
drew up here. If you like Kansas City, you're gonna
like where this is headed. So since the Patriots undefeated
season in two thousand and seven, we've had just three
undefeated teams lose three consecutive games against the spread or more.
(52:20):
Where the Chiefs right now are on a three game
ats losing streak. That is the twenty twenty Titans, the
twenty eighteen Rams, and the two thousand and nine Saints.
After that three game ATS losing streak, those teams win
three and zero straight up and against the spread, covering
by twenty three point five points per game after that streak.
What I'm telling why, I'm telling you this. If you
like Kansas City and you think being undefeated, even though
(52:42):
that Denver field goal was one way or the other,
isn't an accident, then covering and covering by a lot
is coming. So that is a positive aspect of looking
at the three game ATS losing streak they're on.
Speaker 1 (52:53):
That's how I'm looking at it. Evan.
Speaker 3 (52:54):
I now, Pittsburgh, you've said a lot about Tomlin. I
just want to give you two more fun things. So
his teams have faced Lamar four times. He's three and
one straight up and four and zero against the spread.
That's the good part because usually after you face Lamar
a time or two, he ends up getting back at you,
and that hasn't happened with Tomlin. One of the reasons
might be how he does against the run game. So
(53:16):
when Tomlin is a dog facing a rush offense averaging
four plus yards per carry. He's twenty five and eight
against the spread. When that moves to four point five
yards per carry, it's eleven and four against the spread.
And that's exactly what they're gonna have to do, is
stop the run. Let's go to the Colts for a second.
So the Jets, and this just gets crazier every week.
But the Jets are three and seven straight up a
(53:37):
thirty percent win percentage. They are four point favorites teams
thirty three percent win percentage or less favored by four
or more forty percent ats last twenty years. They are
thirteen and twenty eight against the spread thirty two percent
over the last decade. If you like Indy, it's just
a straight numbers play. And I got one for the Rams.
So this one I literally just checked again ten minutes
(53:59):
ago because I wanted to make sure it was true.
As a big favorite on the road, McVeigh has been
nearly flawless as a favorite of above four points on
the road. He is seventeen and oh straight up in
his career, never lost, So hopefully that continues this week,
and I gets New England for you guys.
Speaker 1 (54:16):
But that's what I got today, Chaed Wow, Simon, that's
going to make some of our decisions today really difficult.
I'm excited. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented
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(54:36):
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All right, Simon and I back for the next episode
of The Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page. Sunday night,
seven point thirty Eastern will recap week eleven. We'll get
ahead of week twelve. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods,
(55:20):
wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe, Leavis, flotstars,
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(55:42):
hundred gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I'm Chad Millman of the Action Network. I'm live from
my remote Tommy john Home studio. Listeners may know last
night went to Bulls Knicks at MSG and exciting Bulls
(00:30):
last second win. They covered the eight and a half.
The Milman Boys went home happy. I'm joined as always
by my co host, my companion Mike and Padre might
beff professional better Sigmon Hunter. Hello, So I'm in Chad.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
What a great day today, a good football day. It's
gonna be forty degrees tonight in Philly for this playoff
matchup between the Commanders. I'm so jealous, as you.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Know, yes, because I am on night two of the
Milman Sportacular. Last night me and my son both Knicks
at MSG. Tonight we're going down to Philly. We'll go
to dinner with my older son at Drexel and then
we will go to Eagles Commanders. I'm a little worried.
(01:14):
It's gonna be colder than I thought. I'm not sure
I brought the right coat. I'm gonna have to rally.
I wear my Drexel hoodie.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
But dude, I can warm you up. I got I'm
a big coming for the tailgate brother. I'm thinking about it.
I'm tempted.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Dude. If you do, we can discuss offline. Yeah, hey,
listen that it was a very interesting story. I want
to talk about something that I read in the Wall
Street Journal yesterday. Yeah, because we've talked about like the
challenges that everybody has faced as better as this year,
the public and the favorites have been winning so much so.
(01:48):
This week and the last week is earnings weeks for
a lot of publicly traded companies, where they are reporting
how they've done in the previous quarter, in this case,
usually the third quarter. That includes the sports betting operators
and two of the largest in the United States. I'm
not going to name them, but everyone knows who they are.
They both reported in their most recent earnings calls over
the past two weeks they've had to reduce their revenue
(02:11):
expectations for the rest of twenty twenty four because of
what one of them called euphemistically customer friendly outcomes, which
is a very nice way of saying the public has
been crushing it this year because favorites have been covering
at an extraordinary clips, so much that has cost operators
(02:34):
literally hundreds of millions of dollars. One of them reported
revenue would be reduced by about two hundred and fifty million,
the other by about fifty million. To put a finer
point on it, during the week of Halloween, the industry's
hold rate, which is essentially what they earn after payouts,
(02:55):
was just two percent, normally closer to ten percent. If
that gives you a real, real fine point on how
much the public has been winning this year. We've talked
about it a lot. It doesn't always get discussed like
in our business. A lot of professional betters like to
be on the side of these books, right the books
(03:17):
and the betters like to root for underdogs. They like
to bet underdogs. The books will make their money when
underdogs win. Pros historically are playing dogs. Books historically like
it when favorites loose. So all of that has made
for a fascinating year. Some of the publicly traded operators
(03:38):
laid bare with earnings this week. I don't know if
you have thoughts on that. As someone who is a
professional better I know. Look, we've had tremendous success and
my philosophy, I know this has always been identify where
I think the public markets are going to be overinflated,
(03:58):
and then play the other side, and then look for
the opportunities to play underdogs. Obviously there's been much more
challenging this year. What are your thoughts on all this?
Speaker 2 (04:07):
What I love about this story is it's these two
books kind of thought that they reinvented the wheel and
they banned professional betters quick There are some of the
quickest bands I've ever seen through these books we're talking about.
Their number wouldn't be as negative as it is if
they would take professional money. So these guys are really
stuck in their ways right now and we all know that.
So maybe this won't help change it right now, but
(04:28):
I do think down the road they'll learn from these lessons.
That was my biggest takeaway from it.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
Yeah, look, you're totally right. Getting banned is a massive
issue for professional betters, and it's a constant conversation and
topic for people who are in the community. Nate Silver
actually wrote a book this summer that came out this
summer called on the Edge, and he has a chat
it's all about sort of the art of risking everything.
It's a phenomenal book. I freaking loved it, and sports
(04:56):
betting is a very small part of it. But he
did write sensively about how quickly operators ban anyone they
think is an advantage player that they quickly identify as
everybody knows. I wrote a best selling book called The
Odds about the life of professional betters in Vegas. Chad
Milman wrote a book and the inner play they have
(05:20):
with operators and how that is a symbiotic relationship and
what the betters get out of it in terms of
first crack at lines and what the operators get out
of it. Back then, they weren't operators, they were just
book makers. By letting people pound the lines into shape,
and the risk that everyone is willing to take, and
they're communicating with each other, they're leaning on each other,
they're learning from each other. That sort of relationship I
(05:43):
think is diminished. But listen, let's get to some freaking
games today. As our NFL Week eleven Best Bets episode,
Simon and I will narrow down our five picks and
the favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them
Contest presented by bet three sixty five. Sign up now
Stottactionnetwork dot com. We're going to give it our Foxhole.
We're going to give about our Tommy John big Balls
(06:06):
bet of the week. We're going to discuss Simon's biggest
bets are boosted money line, Underdog Parlay, the Underdog round Robin,
so much more bets rolling in line, the lines, removing
decisions need to be made. As our volume podcast Boss
Colin Coward likes to say there's a sea of money
out there. As a reminder of the favorite podcast is
presented by Bet three sixty five and now new Bet
(06:27):
three sixty five. Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars
in bonus bets when you bet five dollars. Sign up
using promo code Favorites deposit ten dollars in place to
bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty
in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never
ordinary at Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one
(06:49):
or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia eighteen and oh
they're in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions
restriction is a plaque. All right, it's Thursday. This is
when we like to hear how the wise guys are
(07:11):
responding to our Tuesday conversation. We move lines. The pros
feel compelled to weigh in on what we're saying. Simon,
let's do shop call.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
Hello, who's there. I'm talking rain range telephone range. Somebody said,
maybe want to do in Yeah, let's start with the
lines that we disagree on. So off the top, the
professionals like the Bears. I like Green Bay. I mean,
I don't know if you want to dive into that
game more.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
But I just don't know for sure.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
I don't agree what they're saying about this Bears team.
I think they're kind of missing it here. And all
the trends as well point to Green Bay and taking
them in this spot. So interesting. They love that one Cleveland.
That's another number that you know I talked about. Gave
it out of three to two and a half sharpest
number of the week. Apparently that's all the way down
to them minus one now for Cleveland, so clearly they
(08:08):
love it. I've missed this one. I was gonna end
up being on the Saints, and now I have to
be on the Saints. Now this line's flipped. I hate
this game. I didn't want to bet it. Now I
have to bet it, unfortunately. But the pros they love
that Cleveland side, which is really interested to me New
England Patriots. I'm on the other side. I like the Rams.
I know we're gonna talk about this one. I get
their viewpoint of it. They like this Patriots defense. You
(08:31):
have them at home against outdoor Stafford. I get their
reasoning behind it. So I'm looking forward to us breaking
down that one even more. And for the last one,
we knew this was coming. Buffalo Bills. The professionals love
the Bills. They love it, they love the number. They're
just like most people think on this Chiefs team's a
little overrated. They like this spot. Josh Allen at home.
He is not scared of this Chiefs team. We've seen
(08:53):
in his career. It's never honestly been his fault. Eve
when you go back and watch a lot of those losses.
This is never on Josh's either. Why she has a
terrible drop, His defense can't stop anything. It's never really
been his fault. So I get where they're coming from
this one. I'm excited to break this down even more.
But nothing changed for me on this one. I still
love the Chiefs and we've seen that number go down
now from two and a half to two of most books,
(09:14):
so it seems like some professional money has been coming
in on this Chiefs now that have kind of reached
its peak value at two and a half. So yeah,
just off the top, those are the ones we disagreed on.
The games we like the same side. Chad Pittsburgh no
brainer game we're gonna talk about more. Tennessee another game
we'll talk about more, and then Detroit, which we talked
on Tuesday. I know Chad didn't do it because he's
(09:34):
a good guy, but I my personal contests far ours
that I do. I locked in the twelve and a
half on Detroit because I knew it was going up.
Now it's up to thirteen and a half fourteen at
most books. So there's a couple games I'm happy we're
gonna be diving into.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
Yeah, it's a fascinating board. I can't I do want
to talk about that Cleveland game. I bet the Browns
at one and a half. I just couldn't couldn't have
resist it. Yeah, it just didn't make any sense me.
One final order of business. I mentioned this on Tuesday.
We are doing another Favorites live event. This is a
(10:08):
watch party. We're still nailing down some of the final
details that will be an RSVP page available, but what
you need to know right now, we're doing it in Philly,
the fighting city of Philadelphia. It's a home game for
my bff, Simon Hunter. He's gonna get all of his
compadres from Philly South Jersey to come out, but anybody
(10:30):
is welcome to come. It's gonna be Thursday, December twelfth,
great spot called the Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philadelphia.
There's gonna be drinks, live Q and A with me
and Simon. Matt Mitchell is gonna be there. It's gonna
be in advance of the Thursday night football game for
the Rams and the Niners. We're gonna have sort of
(10:51):
a happy hour pregame, drinks and Q and A with
me and Simon and Matt, and then we're all gonna
hang out. We're gonna watch that Rams forty nine Ers
game in a bet. Our faces off in Philly where
it's legal. We're going to enjoy and we're all going
to have a blast. Mark your calendars, start making plans.
We'll let you know when to and where to RSVP.
(11:13):
All right, Baltimore Pittsburgh. First game on the board, Steelers
plus three. This was our Simon Sas Simon, I think
there are real statistical matchup reasons for doing this. I
think the Steelers offensive strength, especially running the ball, they
are an advantage. I mean, the Steelers' offensive strengths throwing
the ball recently are an advantage against the Ravens defensive
(11:37):
weaknesses and vice versa. By the way, like the Raven's
strength running the ball is an advantage against the Steelers defense.
We're playing the percentages. We're playing the long term ROI.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
I love the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna see if we
can make what do you guys quit today?
Speaker 1 (11:55):
When these teams are grossly uneven, it favors the underdog.
I will go through every single stat the litany of facts,
but I want to throw it to you first.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
Yeah, the biggest one to me, is definitely gonna be
the fact that I don't think the books have accounted
enough for Cayle Hamilton being out of this game. So
we have a defense that's already suffering. Now you have
arguably the best safety in all football, a guy who
can play every spot in the field, a guy who
he just can tell by the way the teams line
up when he's gonna blitz or when he's gonna back
on the coverage like he was incredible and you travel
(12:31):
over the field. I just knew it was gonna come
down as soon as I saw it that it was
three and a half. It was just like, Okay, this
will come down to three. And the books were gonna
get a ton of public money and they haven't budged sht.
Like I talked to a lot of book makers. It's
all Ravend's money right now for the most part. I
mean a lot of people have here taking the Steelers
team in the money line, but we've seen it early
here it's just been Raymonds money. So we obviously know
(12:52):
the trends back it up here, but I just think
the matchup on the field does as well. Somebody got
to be all in for everybody to be all in.
I've seen this team when the Ravens struggle with the
deep ball. That's all Pittsburgh wants to do. They want
to attack you downfield, they like they love anything above
twenty yards. They want to attack you. And it all
starts with the run game. So Arthur Smith knows that
it's like, Okay, we'll run it down their throat. Eventually
(13:15):
the linebackers will step up, they'll suck in, we'll get
one on ones, especially across the middle, and that's what
Russell Wilson has been great this season. So home dog Tomlin.
We are already gonna love it. The fact that we're
getting such a good number. It's still a three to me,
it just makes it a no brainer. It's just a
spot we can't avoid. We love these type of numbers
in this type of spot.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
Yeah, it's every reality says, take the Steelers here. I
always get nervous with this because how does this trend
continue to hold. We've got a couple spots here where
we are today, where we're going to just be leaning
(13:56):
into what has historically happened, not overthinking, not letting our
eyes deceive us, not trying to be smart, not saying
this is going to be the time where it all
falls apart. Last twenty years, the underdog in this series
seventy four percent against the spread in the regular season
when the line is three or more underdog twenty two
(14:17):
four and three, underdog fifteen two and one against the
spread since two thousand fifteen in the regular season underdog
twenty three, six and three against the spread. When Mike
Tomlin faces John Harbaugh Mike Tomlin twenty and fifteen straight up,
eighteen teen, fourteen three against the spread versus John Harbaugh.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
I'm gonna cut you off because I laugh at that
all the time, like that's what the hell we pay
to do.
Speaker 1 (14:45):
So everything says Steelers, Steelers, Steelers. And by the way,
if it was the other way, it would be Ravens Ravens.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
Yeah. That that has to do with Lamar two as
a dog, right, Lamar is a Dog's the biggest one
with that what you're talking about. So yeah, So we
love both sides as dollars.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
We love both. We just love the dogs in this
spot underdogs in the AFC North Divisional games. Thank you
Evan Neighbors. By the way, for all these you got
to check out his story that comes out on Wednesdays
where he breaks down every game with these cool stats.
Underdogs forty seven to thirty one against spread sixty percent
since twenty eighteen. So book it, Steelers. We might get burned,
(15:27):
obviously we think we could get burned here.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
But it's not one hundred percent success rate.
Speaker 1 (15:31):
Nothing is one hundred percent success rate. It's positive. Ev like,
this is what we think is going to happen. And
I'm not gonna overthink it on this, Like, I'm not
gonna get crazy. We're just gonna play what we have
always played. If this was Duck Hodges and the Steelers
were plus three, I don't even think we'd be having
(15:52):
a conversation. We'd one hundred percent be betting the Steelers.
I think we'd be more more confident if the Steelers
were actually.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
Yeah, and it's also in our contest is still three
and a half. So it's just like, not only you're
getting great value, you're getting a great number as well.
Speaker 1 (16:08):
Done Minnesota Tennessee. Tennessee's a six point dog here. Look
the number says play the home dog. It's a defense
whose strengths matchup to a you know, turning into a
pumpkin quarterback. The trend say fade the road favorite with
a win percentage of seventy five or more, it's only
forty three percent against spread. The reality Will Levis versus
(16:34):
a Brian Flores defense. And if you want to talk
about the highest rankings for any defense in pressure and
blitz and blitz rate and total pressure is raw and
total blitz is raw, it's going to be Brian Flores.
If you want to talk about the quarterback who struggles
(16:57):
the most in the NFL, in that scenario, it's Will Lewis.
So I know that, like we want to do the
ugly thing here, I kind of went no part of
this game.
Speaker 2 (17:14):
Yeah, and it's also I mean, my main thing is
it's just yeah, Will loves and might might struggle and
be bad in this game. But Sam could be said
for Sam Darnel. And now we do have date on
him where you know, he's been a favorite ten times
of three points or more in his career. He's three
and seven against the spreading those games, so we've seen
him struggle as big favorites. Now, I told you the
(17:34):
negative to me is that the numbers come down. If
I want to put it in. If it's six and
a half, But I told you I'm not here to
force us in to take in this at six and
five and a half. It's like, I want a good
number run back in such a terrible quarterback and will
love us. But you're right, like, don't need to force
us one in. But it's a spot I have to bet,
and it's just it's it's buy and low on this
(17:55):
Tennessee team. Even last week, like in my money line
around Robin one on the legs was the Patriots paired
with the Jaguars, and it's like I knew at the time,
everyone was like, there's no way the Jaguars going to
beat that team, but you saw how it could happen. Right,
if you have a quarterback that's just playing terrible like
Sam Dona has been playing, teams are going to stay
in these games. So I'm with you. This is an
(18:16):
ugly one that I'm happy to avoid. But at six
and a half, if it is that jet in or contest,
I might force you to take it.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
Well, I think we're going to have five pretty good options,
and I do think we're gonna have to race onto
the site after this show because there's going to be
a game that we want to get in before they
become the favorite, and that is the Cleveland Browns, who
at bet three six 's five are still one point
underdogs at the New Orleans Saints. We talked about it
on Tuesday. I can't get out of my head, like
(18:45):
I don't know why the Saints are still favored here.
It might not last much longer. Like there's a couple
spots where the Saints are a half point favorite now
opened it what two and a half on Sunday when
we first identified it? Are only mitigating factor here? Is
jamis other than that? Like? How are we not betting
(19:07):
the better defense, the healthier team off of bye with
a superior coach against a team that basically just won
the game that had to win and might not win
again all year and has zero receivers and a quarterback
who under pressure is a much different quarterback than he
is when he is not under pressure, which is why
(19:28):
we liked him last week. You got to be on
the Browns here, assignment be on the Browns with me.
Speaker 2 (19:34):
I mean, I guess I'm fine with you putting them in,
but I have true I told you I want to
avoid this game because I don't really have a good
read on it. I just I just don't trust either
of these quarterbacks right now. And I'm with you. I'm
trying to find a reason to take this Cleveland team.
You're right, maybe it's the number and that's where the
value is. But for me, I just there's other games
I'd rather bet on. So this could be your game
(19:54):
if you want to stand behind it, you're confident in it.
I believe in you. You can put this one in.
But as you said your Thursday, I just can't get there.
Speaker 1 (20:00):
Why is it just because of Jamis?
Speaker 2 (20:03):
Yeah, and just the Browns in general. They're just they're
they're terrible this year and we've seen them struggle when
they get behind, and you know it's it is. It's
a huge game for Jamis, Like this is him coming
back to a team that let him go, and you
know he's in his feelings. Jamis is a crazy person
in his own heads. A lot of people forget. You
(20:25):
can go out, you can see practice, you can nicknack this,
that Paddy Way give with all the bone. That's just
my fear is he's just gonna be trying to do
too much. That's what you don't want if I knew
that this is gonna be a heavy Nick Chubb type
of game, and I would feel really confident, like what
you're talking about, this is a nice spot to fade.
This Saint's team off will win. I win that. Me
and you both agree they got pretty lucky to get
(20:45):
So I agree with your view of it that the
numbers probably right of Cleveland. I'm just not confident in
this Cleveland side.
Speaker 1 (20:51):
Stefanski knows he's got a healthy offensive line, that he
can keep the clock running, that he's got a defense
that can be in Derek Carr's face, that the Saints
probably should have lost that game last week. They got
lucky winning it, Like I can believe all this.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
All right, put it, We'll put it in.
Speaker 1 (21:13):
Then I want to put it in. I want to
put it in. I want to own it. I'll own it.
But Simon, it is not our big balls. Better the
Week Care presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls,
Tommy John has the supports. Great games start with great underwear.
(21:34):
Tommy John makes the greatest. I believe we won our
big balls last week. It was the Saints, if I'm
not mistaken. So this week we're doing something we have
never done in the history of our show. How long
have you and I been together? What is it? There's
a sixth season. In six seasons, we have never gone
(21:57):
big balls on a two touchdown favorite, Yet here we are.
I bet the Lions at minus thirteen. It's in the app.
I saw it moving to thirteen and a half at
a couple of Connecticut books and wanted to get the
thirteen where I could. It's up to fourteen at a
(22:19):
lot of places, so that's the consensus. I feel like
we're entering the law of big numbers territory. It becomes
impossible for teams and quarterbacks to continue to outperform their
previous success and the market. It's why Patrick mahomes Ats
(22:41):
record is a favorite of more than three is so low,
Like the public expectations are so high, it's just not
possible to consistently beat them. And I feel like we're
reaching that point with the Lions. But I don't care,
Like there's no reason not to bet them here.
Speaker 2 (22:59):
Yeah, I've seen the trends as well, point to that
these big favorites have done well these last couple of years,
Like that's it's been profitable to take these favorites of
ten points or more, and Jared got specifically. You know,
he's made nine starts eleven and two or nine and
two straight up, and those starts as a big favorite
seven and four against the spread as a big favorite
(23:20):
of ten points or more. So I'm trying not to
let it scare us off. The biggest thing to me
is just the fact that they didn't cover last week, Chad,
like we've talked about this. I don't know if we
talked about this year, because they've been a covering machine.
But basically me and Chad blindly bet the Lions after
they don't cover, and people always ask us why, and
it's pretty simply point to a trend of Lions fail
(23:41):
to cover their previous game Golf fourteen and four against
the spread with Detroit, including nine and two at home
against the spread. So it's just really a spot like
we already liked the number. We like that it's Mac
Jones going against his defense, and it feels like that
was the Jaguars everything game last week outdoors in the muck,
and don't I just lay down at this point? Isn't
(24:01):
this a team that's just going to roll over and die,
especially if the Lions just come out and they're humming.
You know. That was the throwaway game last week. I
coughed the guy threw what was with five interceptions? You
expect him to have a huge bounce back spot and
this offense to have a bounce back spot, especially against
this Jaguars team. So shop around. There's I mean, I'm
seeing a thirteen still out there, so you can still
(24:22):
get a good number on this. For this show, though,
we'll take it up fourteen because that's what it's at
on bet three six five, Hello Detroit. Double digit's favorites
this year four and oh against the spread. I want
to just give that style because that's just it just
shows how things have changed. Like I used to be,
(24:44):
I really love taking double digit favorites, and this year
is kind of showing you. It's like it's moved the
other way where if the books are really pushing it
above ten, I mean, they really need the dog to
come through and that's just not happened them this season.
I mean, that's that's crazy, the fact that there're four
and oh double digit favorites this.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
Year, and it's crazy. That is our big balls better
of the Week, and we're going to be putting the
Detroit Lions in the contest that way. As I said,
you can see in the app, I've already taken the Lions.
Our sponsor, Tommy John, makes the most comfortable underwear I've
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(25:21):
you can bet better, which means taking the Lions. As
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(25:42):
We talked about Green Bay in Chicago. Chicago is now
down to five and a half and like this was
a placeholder game for us, we could not come to
a conclusion. You've started the lean in the Packers direction,
to be honest, so do I. I think we wanted
to see a little bit about how the market moved
(26:02):
I the past two decades. I used this stat last
week for the Niners against the Bucks, and we were
on the Niners. It didn't work out, but they dominated
it and should have won that game. Going away Over
the past two decades, road faves off of a buy
cover at a sixty percent clip, the number is seventy
(26:25):
percent when the spread is five and a half or higher.
Why do you think the wise guys are on the Bears, Simon?
Why do you want to be on the packers?
Speaker 2 (26:36):
Because they're like me and they're old school. It's a
divisional home dog that's getting less than ten percent of
the bets, less than ten percent of the tickets. It's
this is what professionals do, and this is why again,
book makers need people like us because we bet the
other side and no one's betting, so they're not going
to catch me on this one. Though, Like I, I
was a sucker. I think it was five six years
(26:57):
ago where I was. I thought Roger was kind of
heading down the other side of his career. I know
it sounds stupid now, but this is when he was
still with McCarthy a little. Did I know he was
about to win two MVPs after that, But I was
always like, Okay, they'll finally catch this Green Bay team.
Especially I got sucked in when they got you guys
had Mitch Tubisky. It doesn't matter if your team's good
(27:18):
if Green Bay is on the other side, they just
always beat you guys. It's the most bizarre thing right now.
You're the relationship between green Bay like that, the Brett
Favre era they dominated, Aaron Rodgers era they dominated, and
then Jordan Love, who's not even been that good as
a favor for some reason, though he plays really well
against this this Bears team. So five and a half now, Chad,
(27:39):
I'll join the public. I'll take the number. But I'm
happy that we don't have to make this one over
five because I'm just not super confident in betting in
Jordan Love is a big favorite.
Speaker 1 (27:47):
No, I'm not either. I am more confident in betting
Matt laflor So even though it's not, it's not gonna
end up being our contest. Play Matt Lafleur on extended
preps seven and three against the spread when favored by
four points or more. That's the fourth best mark amongst
the ninety nine head coaches over the past twenty years.
(28:08):
Rams minus four and a half at New England another one.
I think you and I have sort of come to
an agreement here independently. We both kind of like the Rams,
and we know that the wise guys aren't the Patriots here,
but off of home loss as a favorite last week,
they're now road favorites field goal or more. Those teams
fifty eight percent against spreads in two thousand and three,
(28:31):
twenty nine to fifteen to two since twenty twenty. I
don't know McVeigh in this spot. He's great on short rest.
Like with Stafford as a QB, he's great on short rest.
I'm actually surprised that the wise guy love for the
Patriots in this spot. It feels like you'd want to
(28:53):
sell the Patriots right now and buy the Rams because
this was another one the Rams kind of dominated offense.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
Yeah, and it feels like we're getting a great number
like this is it's down to four and a half,
like you just said, on this Rams team, that to
me is there's there's too much line movement right now
and to pass on this value. This should be at six.
Like you said, this Rams team coming off just their
worst offensive output this season, and there's no excuse, right,
they had all their guys back, they have their offensive
lineback at pook in the lineup bit a Cooper Cup,
(29:23):
no excuse. That was just a totally fall on their
face terrible game by them. How do we not been
on the bounce back the veteran quarterback with a great
head coach. This is the spot you dominate, right going
up against the rookie head coach and the rookie quarterback
after they just had a huge road win like this,
This Patrios team's gonna be feeling themselves all week, and
then on the flip side, this other team is going
to be raging. So the Rams have to roll here
(29:46):
if they If they don't Chad, I don't know what
kind of purgatory will put them into. But it's like,
this is clearly not a playoff team if they don't
come out and dominate this game. This is a team.
If this is a game, if you are a legit
playoff team who's gonna make a wild card run, you
have to win this game and you have to kind
of put it away by I think seven points are
more so I love this number and I'm happy you're
on the same side with me.
Speaker 1 (30:06):
Yeah, to me, this feels like a no brainer for
the contest. The only question is we had the Rams
as a foxhole last week. Do we want to go
Rams foxhole again? Because we are clearly on the opposite
side of the professionals.
Speaker 2 (30:19):
I love it.
Speaker 1 (30:21):
Let's do it. Let's put the Rams in the foxhole.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
a city. I'm a foxhole guy.
Speaker 1 (30:30):
I can't think of a better tandem to be in
with than Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford. We love betting
on Matthew Stafford. I'm not afraid of it. We're going
even the foxhole with the Los Angeles Rams minus four
and a half against the New England Patriots. Another game.
I love this one too, and you and I have
not talked about it enough. Colts plus four at the
(30:54):
New York Jets went from four to three and a
half since we last met. Also, since we last met,
Anthony Richardson back in the starting lineup. Soon after that,
the line moved back to Colts plus four. Are you
as in love with the Colts in this game as
(31:15):
I am?
Speaker 2 (31:17):
No, I'm not. No, No, you're not. I'm betting it
because I think it's a good number. I don't think
this Jets team should be a four point favorite against anybody,
but I don't know how, I don't know the I
don't know the mood of the team, Chad, like everything
outside the numbers and all the data. The human element
of this is what scares me because we talked about
I don't like when teams have their owners making all
(31:39):
the decisions. And I said it from the get go.
There was something funky about the whole way they made
Flaco the quarterback. The team reacted to it negatively. Flacco
turned back into a pumpkin. He didn't handle it well either.
And now it's all back on to Anthony Richardsons shoulders.
And he's what twenty two to twenty three years old,
and the guy's made nine starts. It's just, oh man,
it's a brutal they're putting this kid in like this
(32:01):
is just a year. You should have just let him
play it out. This was his rookie season. They just
I hate that the NFL moves so quick they judge
these kids because it's what because he was two for
fifteen passing in that first half, That's why they did it.
It's like we knew the kids weakness is coming out.
He was terrible at throwing the ball to the guy underneath.
He just literally can't hit it. But he's a great
(32:22):
deep ball thrower, so it's like they know what they
need to work on. It's all about how you get
taxed these next couple of years. But his mental might
be shot now. We don't know what he's This kid's
gone through these last couple of weeks. So that's why
it's like I'll bet it. It's the same thing like
I'd rather do Cleveland than take this number with you, Chad,
It's like this one, we're strictly betting the number. At
least Cleveland. I can see them winning. Like I think
(32:44):
they are the better team than the Saints, where the
Jets are the better team, They're just they're just another
team that's just lost overall. Like you said, they don't
have a head coach. That's a huge advantage to that
Colts team. So that's another reason why I'm playing that
plus four numbers. So it's just a number that I'm
not confident. There's other games I'd rather bet, but Anthewy interesson.
(33:04):
We'll see how he can handle adversary. Look, this is
a huge game where if they win this, this could
change their whole season. If they lose it, we could
easily just see this keep getting worse and worse for
this Colts team, because this Jets team, we said it
last week, they look like they quit. So we'll see
which one of these teams is ready for vacation, which
team is actually not given up yet on their season.
Speaker 1 (33:23):
Here's why I like this, and this is part of betting,
and it's something that every regular better has to manage,
which is their own personal biases and the things that
matter the most of them when they're breaking down these games.
And we've generally liked the Colts because we like Shane
Steichen's a play caller, at least we did last year
(33:46):
and still do. And we love their running game right
Their run blocking unit number one in the NFL. Their
offensive line when it comes to run blocking is elite.
Jonathan Taylor is a great running back. Gain more than
one hundred yards last week against the Bills. It's why
we liked that game last week. And if not for
(34:07):
the Joe Flacco turning into Batter Flacco, then I still
contend we cover that game. I know it's a ludicrous
argument if if but like the Jets run defense is terrible.
We saw it last week. They can't tackle. They're afraid
to tackle. They don't want to put their nose in it.
If I'm Shane Steichen and I can run the ball
(34:31):
and I can dominate that way, and I get Anthony
Richardson back, then all of a sudden, I've got another
running threat against a defense that is chaos, and really
it doesn't have anything to hang its hat on right now.
So I like it actually more at four with Anthony
Richardson than I do with Joe Flacco. We don't have
to put it in, but my reverse psychology might have
(34:53):
worked because now I get to put Cleveland in. That's fair,
all right. So Atlanta at Denver, Atlanta's two and a half.
I'm surprised that didn't come up in sharp calls because
I feel like the wise guys are on Denver and
you and I both like Atlanta.
Speaker 2 (35:13):
Yeah, and it's just a game where it's it's not
honestly as heavy as you think it would be on
that Denver team. For the professionals, I think they liked
the early number right. They grabbed it when it was
one one and a half. Now that's up to two
and a half. Either guys are avoiding or people are
like you and me, right, we're taking the other side
in this, So I don't know where you're at with Atlanta.
It's feeling like a little chalky to me that like
(35:35):
it's of course we're taking this Kirk Cousins a two
point dog to bow Nicks. I'm just worried there's something
I'm missing here because this does feel easy, Like when
we talked on Tuesday, It's like I thought this was
gonna be one of my bigger bets. I've kind of
pulled back from it because there's other games I like more,
but it's it's shocking it's still two and a half
on this Atlanta team. I just don't know what I'm missing.
Speaker 1 (35:57):
Yeah, I'm you know what I put in the notes.
I really can't believe this line hasn't moved.
Speaker 2 (36:02):
Yeah, like what are.
Speaker 1 (36:02):
And it turned me off in the same way I
think it turned you off the past forty eight hours.
And again you and I haven't talked about it. I
like things to be fresh for the show, but I
have not put much. I don't think I put any
money on the Falcons yet.
Speaker 2 (36:21):
I bet it, but I'm with you, it's like I
bet it. I'm like, ah, should I just put that
much money. I just put on that like I should
have been patient.
Speaker 1 (36:28):
Well, it's not a contest play to me, and I
think on Tuesday, if you had asked me on Tuesday,
I was probably gung ho putting in this in the contest.
And it's definitely faded out of the top six or
seven for me at this point. Like Kirk Cousins off
a loss, straight up off a loss, he's great, But
(36:50):
I do worry about the pressure that the Broncos can
get on Kirk Cousins in this game, and the lack
of pressure the Falcons and create for bo Nix, who's
just clearly getting more and more confident each and every week.
And if I'm the Broncos, I'm emboldened by what happened
(37:11):
against the Chiefs, Like I look at that and think, wait,
we can play here, Like this was not us like
being a bad team. This was just they made a
great play in the exact right spot. They're the champions.
What can we learn from this? I don't know. I'm
a little more nervous about it than I was, so
I'm glad we're on the same page. Meanwhile, I mentioned
(37:34):
up top with the Steelers We're just going to keep
playing with fire, right the Steelers plus three Every week
we say raw Rob Mike Tomlin, and we take it,
even though it feels kind of chalky and cliche at
this point. Same thing with the Kansas City Chiefs, who
are now two point dogs at Buffalo. It's come down
(37:57):
from two and a half. This was my ex decision
this week. The wise guys you said they were on Buffalo,
they bettered at the two and a half. A little
bit of buyback. All the precedent tells you not to
overthink it. You said it on Sunday, you said it
again on Tuesday. Do not go too deep into the matchup.
Take Patrick Mahomes. Why don't the wise guys agree with us?
Speaker 2 (38:21):
I honestly think it's all about what groof Tree talked to.
I would say that some guys are like me that
just they've learned from going against Mahomes in the past
that there's just don't don't listen to your model, stop
thinking you know more, you just bet Mahomes. It's that
kind of thing where the other side is just we
all know what they know. Right. This Chiefs team isn't
(38:44):
that good as people perceived. They've gotten extremely lucky this season.
They do have injuries that effective this team, like number
one receiver and their number one running back. That's a
huge thing to a team like that that needs those
explosive plays, right, and we've kind of seen they've just
figured it out out where they've dinked and dunked their
way down the field. Now they're kind of back to
what they were last year of just a slow, ugly,
(39:06):
drag it out kind of offense and that relies heavily
on their defense. And when we look at this matchup,
the biggest thing to me is just the pattern we've
talked about that we think that we've nailed with the
Bills and this team this season, which is if they're
playing a bad team, they can roll you. I mean,
we've seen it now with Joe Brady in this offense,
him calling it. They can run it down team's throats
(39:28):
if they're able to. The Chiefs aren't that type of team,
and you know, we saw it with Houston. They struggled,
they lost by three, and then they got rolled by
that Ravens team. So we've seen them face good playoff
teams and they've lost this year. This Buffalo team and
here comes the Chiefs we perceived to be a good
playoff team. I just think it's going to be tight.
And that that two and a half, which is such
(39:50):
a key number we always talk about. That felt like
to me, that's where all the value was on this number.
So Mahomes and the dog, we know, brain want to
be on it. The fact that we were getting two
and a half, I mean, chop around people. We we
just said there's it's two now at bet three sixty five.
There's still a couple two and a halfs out there.
Make sure you grab that number. We always talk about
such a key number. So I I am surprised that
(40:12):
the money has moved this number back down because it
seemed like the books were going to take a position
right when they moved the all way up to two
and a half. I don't know if you agree with me.
I was like, oh, this might get to three. Like
they're clearly taking a position here on the bills. They
think they have a good read on it. But they've
humbly moved it back down. So it seems like even
the books are a little unasure how to price this
game on this number.
Speaker 1 (40:32):
I was convinced Monday when it didn't get to three,
because it got to two and a half right away
that it was just staying there. So I betted at
two and a half Kansas City on Monday. It's been holden.
I'm not surprised at all now that it's gotten back
down to two. I wouldn't be surprised if comes Sunday.
We've seen so much money, especially since Betty became legal,
(40:55):
come in on Sunday between eleven and one, so it's
like so hard to be patient during the week and like,
no that you might be able to get the number
you want on Sunday. I actually think the number is
going to get lower. I think it's going to go
in the direction of the Chiefs because it's the Chiefs.
They're undefeated. Most people are going to want to bet them.
Speaker 2 (41:16):
Oh, the money line, the teaser exposure, they're getting hammered
right now with it.
Speaker 1 (41:20):
I think, like you, if you want the Chiefs, get
it now, because I don't think it's going to get
any better for you. A couple of stats keep in
mind we've mentioned them before. Mahomes eleven and three straight
up as an underdog, twelve one and one against the spread.
This is the best straight up mark as a dog
in the Super Bowl era for a QB with at
(41:43):
least ten starts. Of course, that one against the spread
loss came as an underdog in twenty twenty two at
home against Josh Allen and the Bills. They lost by four,
so two and a half point underdog also twenty six
to eight, and one in his career as a favorite
of three or fewer that is Mahomes And the other
(42:03):
thing I will say, like the Bills are not in
a great spot health wise. We talk about the Chiefs
and Isaiah p. Checko not back this week, or Rashi
Rice he's out right, but Kean Coleman not playing, Dalton
Kinkaid has a cast on his hand, Amari Cooper not playing.
(42:27):
They've got some issues on their offensive line. They're not perfect, Chad,
Before we go any further, just wanted to break into
the show here to give my beloved Buffalo Bills a
little pep talk. And who better to deliver this message
than my favorite coach all time, coach Pete Bell, played
by Nick Nolty in the seminal nineteen ninety four film
(42:50):
Blue Chips. Coach Bell, let him hear.
Speaker 2 (42:53):
It, all right, boys, we got a job to do now.
Goddamn it, We're not I'm going out there to make
a good show or just put up a good fight.
Speaker 1 (43:04):
We're going out there to beat the best goddamn team
in the country.
Speaker 2 (43:07):
Right now. Let me tell you something. Boys, you may
not know this, but I know it. There is the
talent in this room to do just that. He'll tell
them exactly what we're gonna do. I'll give them our offense.
I'll give them our defense because it's not what you do,
goddamn it, it's how you do it. And we're gonna
go nose to nose with him, and you're gonna play
better than you ever dreamed of, because goddamn it, that's
(43:28):
what I've have. Man of you. Good luck boys, give
him help the Bills. Make me a wanna.
Speaker 1 (43:35):
Last game we want to talk about. This was an
alternate foxhol so I do want us to go through it.
We're sort of leaning Chargers right now minus one and
a half against the Bengals. Maybe we're like on the
wrong side of the wave now with the Chargers because
we've avoided the Chargers. We've said they're a little bit
too vanilla. We didn't believe they were good enough to
(43:57):
beat good teams. Now all of a sudden, we've changedtoon
and they could beat a good quarterback, which they haven't
done this year. They've lost the Mahomes, they've lost to
Kyler Murray. But maybe we're snake bitten. They've basically done
things they don't do the things that have burned us
the most. They don't make bad coaching decisions, they don't
(44:19):
make bad penalties at the worst possible time. They don't
turn the ball over. So now we like the Chargers.
We're not gonna put them in the contest, I don't think,
But give me your take here, I.
Speaker 2 (44:29):
Wouldn't mind putting them in. I love the Chargers in
the spot. This is probably gonna end up being one
of my bigger bets. I just love the number. Love
this team, and the biggest thing I love about him
is that they're not the Cincinnati Bengals team. Shead, I
think this is one of the more overrated teams of
this season. You're like me, though, you love Joe Burrow
and he kind of blinds you to it.
Speaker 1 (44:46):
Love them.
Speaker 2 (44:48):
They're not good, this Bengals team. And I've thought that
all season, and I remember I was giving you a
hard time when they when you took them against the Eagles,
and it's just like, I think they're going to struggle
against good defense, and they've been very fortunate this season.
They really haven't faced many good defenses. And you know,
the public is a little blind to it right now
(45:09):
because what we just saw them put up forty one
against the Raiders two weeks ago, then last week in
a primetime game, they put up thirty four. Like people
right now are just like this offense is a juggernaut,
They're unstoppable. We'll see like they're about to face another
really good defense, and I think that's gonna be the
difference here is the Chargers. They'll be patient, they'll wait.
(45:30):
Joe Burrow is gonna force one in there, They'll make
him make a mistake and that's when this Chargers team,
to me, will kind of take this game by the
rains and take a lead. So this is gonna be
to me, the biggest public side of the week. Everyone,
every bookmaker I've talked to it. Basically every teaser they've
gotten too far as the Chiefs Bengals teaser like, they
just can't stop taking those type of teasers, right now,
(45:51):
which makes total sense. You're getting Joe Burrow up to
seven and a half, which is a pretty good number
against his Chargers team in most people's minds. But I
could see this Chargers team rolling. It's just a team
that's kind of been slept on this season. Like you said,
we've even slept on them where we were just unsure
about what their identity was gonna be, and they've taken
on just this really smart team that plays stout defense.
(46:12):
I think that's something that's gonna give trouble with this
Bengals team. So even if this does turn into a
QB battle, I'm not too thrown off with it being
herbering his weapons. It feels like he's gotten more comfortable
to here down the road. So do I wish this
one kept going down? It woud been great to get
the Chargers of the dog. I thought it would keep
moving that way. This number is not bud despite just
(46:34):
about nine money nine percent of the tickets coming in
on that Bengals side. So we talked all the time.
There's certain games I like to dig my heels and
on this is gonna be one of them. We're primetime game,
which everyone's on a road dog. Uh, usually is not
good for these people.
Speaker 1 (46:49):
Well, that's when you say you're digging your heels. It
feels like you want to take a position and put
them in the contest. And now we're gonna have a
challenge because I think we got we got if as
I see it, seven games we like for the contest,
so we'll have to narrow it down after the show.
I think the games that we like the most Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit,
(47:14):
we like the Rams, Kansas City, the Chargers. I think
that's actually six, So it's gonna come Maybe it's coming
down to the Chargers in the Browns. Maybe it's coming
down to the Chargers in the Rams. Are we gonna
want like a road favorite in there and a big
favorite and a short home favorite that's going against what
(47:35):
the public is doing. That's gonna be it's gonna be exciting.
Each week we give out a two team money line
underdog parlay Bet three six five boosts the odds and
highlights it on their site all weekend under both game pages.
Remember both games were eligible for Bet three six fives
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(47:56):
as a win. If that money line pick takes a
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Speaker 2 (48:21):
There will come up payday. Hallelu yo, wanna pay day?
There will come.
Speaker 1 (48:26):
Up payday some day.
Speaker 2 (48:28):
Some day there, I will come up heayday.
Speaker 1 (48:31):
Hallelu yo.
Speaker 3 (48:32):
Wanna payday.
Speaker 2 (48:33):
I will come up payday some day.
Speaker 1 (48:38):
Simon. This is where I thought we would land for
our underdog round. Robin. Tell me if you disagree. Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Indianapolis, Cleveland.
Speaker 2 (48:55):
Uh, Cleveland is minus one tenth. So I'm gonna make
you sadly have to take that one out. Let's pair
up another long shot with that Coats one, because I
we're the type where you're getting to the point of
the season where it's like you want to take these
ugly dogs, like just like the Patriots last week, right
every now and then they're in, they're going to keep popping.
How do we not throw Tennessee?
Speaker 1 (49:13):
Yeah, that's what I thought you were going to say.
Speaker 2 (49:14):
I know, like, no one's betting them they're plus two
oh five. Come on, this would be such a shocker,
and I love those type of bets.
Speaker 1 (49:22):
Give me your biggest bets. Then right now you mentioned
the Chargers. Where are your biggest bets?
Speaker 2 (49:26):
They're not yet Chargers because I, like I said, I
felt the public would really hammer that that number on
the Bengals and I'd get a better number. But it
looks like I'm just gonna have to suck it up
and take this minus one and a half two and
a half chiefs if you can still find it. That's
no brown, no doubt aboucking with my bigger bets, Pittsburgh.
I was hoping we'd still get the three and a half.
Chat we've seen now it's the books are going to hold.
(49:48):
Now on the three, I haven't broken yet. Like my
early heavy money was on the three and a half.
Haven't touched the three yet. I'm gonna give in. This
will be one of my bigger bets if it just
stays of the three. I don't hate taking the three.
I just want the three and a half. You know
it is so those two they jumped out right away,
And then right now, I mean shockingly Detroit. I've just
been hammering it at thirteen. I was just all over
(50:11):
it thirteen and a half. I've played a little bit
of fourteen. I've slowed down a little bit just because
it's hitting that point of I don't think they're gonna push,
but it's like the value Obviously I've shifted at this point.
But I really do love Detroit in this spot with this.
Speaker 1 (50:24):
Number, and I love that about you. I love that
you and I independently who says we can't adjust? Fucking
love that you and I are both going balls to
the wall on a two touchdown favorite in the Detroit
Lions Scoots Roulette. Last week we both lost. Who's your pick?
(50:50):
This week?
Speaker 2 (50:52):
When all hope is lost, all this left is relief.
Speaker 3 (50:56):
Let's play Scoots Roulette?
Speaker 2 (51:00):
I mean depends. Well, they let me get Chiefs two
and a half.
Speaker 1 (51:03):
Give me Chiefs two and a half.
Speaker 2 (51:05):
All right, I appreciate you. Give me, give me the boring,
the safe play. I need to get back on my
winning ways. Give me Chiefs two and a half.
Speaker 1 (51:11):
So I narrowed it down to the Rams, Detroit and
Indie and the fact that you love Detroit as much
as you do if you can give me the lowest
available price on Detroit that is on the board anywhere
I want to take Detroit.
Speaker 2 (51:26):
There's a thirteen out there, all.
Speaker 1 (51:27):
Right, then I'm taking Detroit minus thirteen.
Speaker 2 (51:30):
The most public book there is, so it doesn't matter.
Speaker 1 (51:32):
I'll take it. Customer Friendly decisions have been made. I'm
getting a customer friendly line.
Speaker 2 (51:41):
True.
Speaker 1 (51:42):
Listen, Before we get out of here, let's bring in
our director of research, Evan Abrams, for the final word.
He's going to make us feel so much better about
everything we've said today.
Speaker 2 (51:52):
The last word with Evan Abrams, we're finished talking.
Speaker 3 (51:58):
It would have been crazy a few years ago, just
that we were starting a game down fourteen points and
we had the Lions. But that's where we sit today.
All right, Let's talk about the Chiefs because that's the
game of the weekend. Here's a nugget I kind of
drew up here. If you like Kansas City, you're gonna
like where this is headed. So since the Patriots undefeated
season in two thousand and seven, we've had just three
undefeated teams lose three consecutive games against the spread or more.
(52:20):
Where the Chiefs right now are on a three game
ats losing streak. That is the twenty twenty Titans, the
twenty eighteen Rams, and the two thousand and nine Saints.
After that three game ATS losing streak, those teams win
three and zero straight up and against the spread, covering
by twenty three point five points per game after that streak.
What I'm telling why, I'm telling you this. If you
like Kansas City and you think being undefeated, even though
(52:42):
that Denver field goal was one way or the other,
isn't an accident, then covering and covering by a lot
is coming. So that is a positive aspect of looking
at the three game ATS losing streak they're on.
Speaker 1 (52:53):
That's how I'm looking at it. Evan.
Speaker 3 (52:54):
I now, Pittsburgh, you've said a lot about Tomlin. I
just want to give you two more fun things. So
his teams have faced Lamar four times. He's three and
one straight up and four and zero against the spread.
That's the good part because usually after you face Lamar
a time or two, he ends up getting back at you,
and that hasn't happened with Tomlin. One of the reasons
might be how he does against the run game. So
(53:16):
when Tomlin is a dog facing a rush offense averaging
four plus yards per carry. He's twenty five and eight
against the spread. When that moves to four point five
yards per carry, it's eleven and four against the spread.
And that's exactly what they're gonna have to do, is
stop the run. Let's go to the Colts for a second.
So the Jets, and this just gets crazier every week.
But the Jets are three and seven straight up a
(53:37):
thirty percent win percentage. They are four point favorites teams
thirty three percent win percentage or less favored by four
or more forty percent ats last twenty years. They are
thirteen and twenty eight against the spread thirty two percent
over the last decade. If you like Indy, it's just
a straight numbers play. And I got one for the Rams.
So this one I literally just checked again ten minutes
(53:59):
ago because I wanted to make sure it was true.
As a big favorite on the road, McVeigh has been
nearly flawless as a favorite of above four points on
the road. He is seventeen and oh straight up in
his career, never lost, So hopefully that continues this week,
and I gets New England for you guys.
Speaker 1 (54:16):
But that's what I got today, Chaed Wow, Simon, that's
going to make some of our decisions today really difficult.
I'm excited. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented
by Bet three sixty five and now new Bet three
sixty five. Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in
bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign up using
(54:36):
promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for
five dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars in
bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
player props, futures, and more, whatever the moment. It's never
ordinary at Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one
or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen other
(55:00):
in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or
one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply.
All right, Simon and I back for the next episode
of The Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page. Sunday night,
seven point thirty Eastern will recap week eleven. We'll get
ahead of week twelve. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods,
(55:20):
wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe, Leavis, flotstars,
say whatever you want, feedback a gift until next time.
Love You. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If
you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
(55:42):
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