The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 14

With the gambling hopes and dreams of the holiday season upon them, Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to talk all things betting for NFL Week 14. Together they talk about a tricky spot for Mike Tomlin, the bottom of the market for the New York Jets, and a sea of underdogs worth investing in. Plus, we hear their boosted moneyline underdog parlay courtesy of bet365, their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, and so much more. 

To RSVP for the FREE Favorites Podcast LIVE event in downtown Philadelphia on December 12th, follow this link now!

And for new listeners, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is underway! Presented by bet365, this totally free-to-play contest has over $100,000 in cash prizes up for grabs to our listeners this NFL season. Just visit  Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to sign up for free and make your picks today. #Volume #Herd 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Molement of the Action Network. I'm live
from my Tommy John home studio and I'm joined as
always by my co host, my companion, Mi Compadre, and
my bff Professional Better Simon and Hunter Etro. Simon, Chad,

(00:31):
how are we doing, dude? I got to share with
you my past seventeen eighteen twenty hours, uh, because it's
truly insane. I got a buddy. His name is Kenny Dictor.
Kenny is a serial, brilliant, enthusiastic, force of nature entrepreneur

(00:55):
who is hyper connected in sports media business. He started
a company called Wheels Up, the private jet company. Right, So,
I've gotten to know Kenny a little bit over the
past couple of years. He's starting a new business called
Real SLX, and it's all about taking his superpower, which
is creating experiences and getting people involved in these once

(01:20):
in a lifetime experience at really big events. The best
experiences are the best experiences, and so you know, he
did something at the Super Bowl last year with Reyo's
probably one of the best Super Bowl events I've ever
been to Simon, You and I are going to be
doing stuff there this year at the Super Bowl. So
he called me on Monday and he says, I got

(01:41):
tickets to the Auburn duke game Wednesday night, Auburn number two,
duke number nine, Cooper Flag all that We're going to
fly down private Wednesday afternoon. We're going to have dinner,
we're going to go to the game. We'll fly back
that night. How do you say no to that?

Speaker 2 (02:02):
Right?

Speaker 1 (02:02):
Like in a million years, when would I be like, Yeah,
I'm going to go down to Durham, North Carolina the
day before show and I'm gonna, you know, fly private,
go to dinner, and come back that night. But of
course I said yes, you can't not say yes to that. Dude,

(02:23):
flew down we land, we go to go to dinner,
go to this place called Nana's in Durham, which was ridiculous,
and then we're at the game. They were about eight
of us. Kenny had a bunch of tickets and a
bunch of guys that I know and like a lot
some guys who I've met through Kenny who worked with Kenny,
a buddy of mine, namely Fitting who I used to
work with the ESPN. Now everyone's content at WWE. The

(02:46):
tickets were no joke. First row, baseline, under the basket,
like feet on the floor, talking to the ref during
the breaks. My kids sending me pictures of him seeing
me on TV because every time a team is scoring,

(03:08):
the camera crosses my face. It was truly insane and
the game was off the hook. Like I've been to
Cameron before, it's an incredible experience. I went to Duke
UNC a couple of years ago with my younger son
and it was loud and crazy, and the Cameron crazies

(03:28):
really are truly insane, and it's a must do experience
for sports fans. I was sitting next to this guy
who's had these tickets for thirty years. He's a beer
distributor who supplies Cameron and the football stadium. He was
saying that that game last night was the loudest game
he's ever heard. It was ear splitting, how insane it was.

(03:54):
Duke Winn's great game. Get back on the plane at midnight, No,
get back on the plane at twelve forty five. I've
land in Westchester to get home at four am. Now
we're doing the show it was. It was once in
a lifetime amazing. Chad Millman is proud of himself.

Speaker 2 (04:13):
Yeah, great game, cool night. I'm going to tell of
a story.

Speaker 1 (04:16):
Still flying a little bit. But you know what, Simon,
no work, no perks. We got to get to work
because we got a lot to do today. As a reminder,
the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six y
five and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get
one hundred and fifty dollars and bonus bets when you

(04:36):
bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorite, deposit
ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to get
one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. At Bet
three six five. Must be twenty one or older and

(04:58):
present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa, terms,
conditions restrictions apply as always on Thursdays during the season.
We do like to hear are the wise guys are
responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are

(05:23):
the Lanser movement. Based in our conversations, the pros feel
compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's do
shark calls.

Speaker 2 (05:35):
Hello, who's there? I'm talking Rain.

Speaker 1 (05:39):
Rain telephone range. Somebody said, maybe.

Speaker 3 (05:42):
What you do man?

Speaker 2 (05:45):
Yeah, let's start off with a Thursday game shocked to No.
One professionals like Green Bay. We've seen now that a
couple books have moved into three. Then they get hit
by other professionals. You bump it right back up to
three and a half. So it's obviously a game that's split,
but so far, to me, it seems like it's more
so every probably talked to likexus green Bay side for
exactly what we've talked about. So so unfortunately, it's another

(06:07):
Thursday we love and I feel like we're gonna nail.
Can't put in the contest, So just just another good line.
Though it's a three and a half, I still think
that's the key there. Let's go to a game that
you loved. I loved, and now we've seen this number
move a ton, right this Minnesota game. Every guy I
talked to for good reason likes the Vikings for what
we really talked about, right, it's it's a bad match

(06:29):
up for Kirk in that offense. We've seen now too.
Sam Darnold as bad as he was right for those
couple of weeks stretches, he's kind of go into a
little bit of a groove. Yeah, I mean he seems
like he's comfortable again. So not shocking that that number
util I gave it out. I think at five. It's
not the six at a lot of books. So, uh,
that's a game we'll definitely most likely end up with

(06:50):
the contest. Yeah. The the game that really jumped out
to me was just because we were at the time
on the other side was that Chiefs game. Every probably
talked to you right now really likes the chief side. It's
looking more and more like the Chargers is kind of
the Joe public side, Which isn't that shocking right now?
Mean you are on the public side on that Bear side.
Most pros I talk to have our view of it

(07:10):
where this is a spot to take this forty nine
Ers team. So interesting here you're reviewing this game now,
there were a couple of days later another one that
we knew that pros would beyond the Jets, mean chat,
I don't think it changes my opinion. I still like Miami.
I think they're just just keep on chasing that same
thing with this Jets team every week.

Speaker 1 (07:28):
Dude, I got so many I can't wait to talk
about that game.

Speaker 2 (07:32):
And then obviously a game I love. The professionals, though,
were pretty split on it. That Cleveland Brown Pittsburgh game.
All right, hit that horn, babe, let's dance. There's still
a one book in Jersey or that has a seven,
which is pretty shocking. I really thought this would be
six by today. But we get why they like Pittsburgh.
No one's denying Pittsburgh is a much better team, and

(07:52):
they are at home against that Cleveland team with an
inconsistent quarterback. But my argument to them is just this
number is way too big for this type of divisional matchup.
But I don't know, if you watch that AFC Hard Knocks,
this is like the perfect division to do the hard
knocks on, Like it's just all of it was just
it's just so football, like everything about it was so football,
just talking about how you kind of throw the records
out in these teams and just are so familiar with

(08:12):
each other. So yeah, it's been a good year to
back the dog in this division. I think the pros
are looking at this one are saying, well, it's got
to go the other way at some point. The favorites
can't all not cover in this division this whole year.
So a pretty interesting game there. And the last one aside,
I like, I like the Bills that we knew that
was gonna be heavy public side. It's interesting to hear

(08:32):
how many pros like the Rams here and you know,
talk to a couple of guys I really respect. They
went pretty heavy on the Rams of four and a half.
The books that took that money moved it to three
and a half. Now some other you know, Bills money
has come back in a couple of those books went
back to forth. So uh yeah, really really split weeked
with a couple of these games. Chat what some pros

(08:53):
just are betting the numbers here and other ones are
just taking the value and they can on certain dogs.

Speaker 1 (08:57):
All right, Well, good, I'm glad because all these games
are the ones that we want to touch on, and
you know when we get for me, especially when we
get into Wednesdays and do a little more research. The
Bills Rams game definitely stuck out, Chiefs Chargers definitely stuck
out on second thoughts, especially deep into some research yesterday

(09:19):
and then early this morning. One final order of business
before we get into the games. Reminder, our latest Free
Favorites podcast Watch Party is happening. Got to RSVP folks Thursday,
December twelfth, one week from today. We're gonna be at

(09:40):
the Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philadelphia. We're gonna do
free drinks. We're gonna do like a mini show, and
so you know, it's not a show that we're gonna
be able to post. Simon and I are basically going
to do what we do in the Favorites. We're gonna
do it live. Matt Mitchell's going to be there. Evan
Abrams is going to be there. We have so much
frequenc swag to give away, favorite favorite swag, Tommy John swag.

(10:04):
You know we love the Tommy John swag. It's going
to be leading into the Thursday night football game between
the Rams and the Niners. We're gonna sweat together. We're
gonna bet together. We're going to have a good time.
Please RSVP to the event. Check out the link in
the podcast or YouTube episode description. RSVPs are pouring in.

Speaker 2 (10:22):
Don't delay, sharpen our sword for the battle.

Speaker 1 (10:25):
Let's get Roland Simon. I'm calling it right now, Miami
minus six. We're in the foxhole.

Speaker 2 (10:32):
You know me, regardless of what's going on. I'm a
foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
a city. I'm a foxhole guy.

Speaker 1 (10:38):
Clearly we're in the foxhole. Taking the Dolphins as six
point favorites. This is the first time that the Jets
have been underdogs since they played the Bills. I think
it was Week six in the middle of October that
included closing his favorites against Houston, Arizona, Pittsburgh. That game

(11:01):
against Buffalo, they the money was pouring in on the Jets.
They had closed as only one and a half point
dogs against the Bills. I don't get it, like it's
a bad team with an old quarterback who's a mobile
who now is going on you know McAfee and saying
we don't have anything to prove, as if to say

(11:22):
I can't be held accountable for the losses. I'm not
doing it for you guys, you're a professional better. What
is wrong with your brethren?

Speaker 2 (11:33):
Well, it is also model based, so it's the model
is not taken account that, like you just said, everything
is just so negative in that building right now, and
it shows up in the games, right A lot of
those games, you know, even when they have a lead,
they've been falling apart. And it's just not the Rogers
of old, like we talked about, just he's incredibly inconsistent,
and I think their view of it is just that

(11:57):
this team every week is undervalued because of that their model,
and that you know, I'll be in first to a minute,
I got burned by this team coming into the season.
I overrated them simply because of the model, Like I
had a high grade on them. And you know, it
also screwed me with the forty nine ers because the
forty niners just rolled them week one. It made me
in turn overright the forty nine ers and think, well,

(12:20):
this team and the Jets, they'll bounce back against these
bad teams, and they kind of did, and it made
me think, Okay, this is who I thought they were
going to be. And then they fell off a total cliff, right.
I mean they literally have three wins at this point,
like you just said. So I think that's the issue,
chat is that, you know, the professionals have loved them
all year, They've lost a ton of money, and they're
kind of chasing that money. It seems like to me.

(12:40):
That's that's my view of it, because I'm with you.
I don't really understand the betting here and the market,
but it's unfortunate that the books haven't shifted. Like I said,
five and a half would have been amazing if they
would just would have gave us that number. But it
seems like they're just gonna hold you at this six
right now with Miami. So I'm with you. I love
this match of Miami to an at home in this
matchup against a defense that has struggle against the pass,

(13:04):
and they've struggled against the run. That's what Miami wants
to do as well. They love to run the ball.
That just opens up everything obviously downfield for the pass.
And we've talked about we've seen Miami now since two
has been back, just beat up on these bad teams
and even good teams. Right, They've held into some games
like that. I wish I had taken more from that
Bills game. When Tua drove down the field, it was
like that was a big moment for him on the
road against that Bills team that didn't get enough credit

(13:25):
for it. And I mean we've seen they're just a
different team they were earlier in the year. So I'm
loving this as a Fox. So I just like to
be on the Jets in the spot, I mean the Miami.

Speaker 1 (13:35):
Yeah, so since firing Robert Sala, the Jests are thirty
first in points allowed per possession their last and EPA
per play. Sauce Gardner might not play this weekend, not
like he tackles when he does play. That team is
in such disarraying. Look, we're talking about it so much
we just may get burned. But too in this spot,

(13:59):
I mentioned this on Tuesday, Miami and Tua beat up
on bad teams as favorites at home seven and one.
The Jets are a bad team, folks, There's just no
two ways about it. So the big money will pour
in on the Jets on Sunday. We've seen it every
single Sunday for the reasons. Someone just said, you make

(14:20):
a great point. We've talked about this a lot on
the show, like rankings are hard to completely change in
the middle of a season, right, it's gonna happen. It's
like you tightrate off of drugs, right, Like you can't
just go from fifty milligrams to zero milligrams. You gotta
go from fifty to forty to thirty to twenty to ten.

(14:41):
Like that's what happens with these rankings, and no one
can go fast enough to catch up with how bad
and sort of discombobulated the New York Jets are so.

Speaker 2 (14:53):
Well, the fear is you overadjust Like obviously we talked
about that when we took a beating back in the
Panthers early in the year. But you're seeing why because
of what this team can be when Bryce Young is
what I thought he was going to be coming out
of the season, which is an open offense that had
been a much better team that The biggest issue I've
had definitely personally this season has just been the adjustments

(15:17):
to these bad teams are really bad. Right. There's just
some really poor coaching right now in the NFL, and
not just enough to injuries. Right, This Carolina team we
should have justin were in the year when they lost
a lot of their defense, Like they had major injuries
to their defense and I hadn't adjust to it. So
there are things like that. But like I said, you
don't want to overadjust because we would have missed these
last three weeks on this Panthers team, right, we would

(15:38):
have totally been out on them if I had over
adjusted their number and underrated the value. So the same
thing is going to hear with this Jets team. I
just think guys are stubborn dug in on the exact
number they have with this team.

Speaker 1 (15:49):
Well, you mentioned Carolina. Carolina is a twelve and a
half point dog at Philly. Like it's an interesting week
for us. I feel like there are a couple of
games and we're going to talk about the other ones
in years past. They are auto plays, big number against
a super hype team, a team that we've been loving

(16:09):
all year. Caroline is twelve and a half at Philly,
And on Tuesday we talked about it, and we liked Philly,
we liked Carolina like or at least we're leaning that way,
but we didn't go all in. We didn't like immediately
bet it. You didn't call it assigmon says the number
had come down a little bit. There are some trends
that's sort of backfading the hot team here, but I

(16:34):
can't get there. Like as much as we love how
Bryce Young has improved, like this is not the Saints
or the Boxer, even the Chiefs, Like with an underperforming secondary,
an undermanned offense, and a terrible right tackle and left tackle,
like namely a defense you'd like to face less than

(16:55):
the Eagles right now. Jalen Carter and Milton Williams are
Pro Football focuses third and fourth rated defensive tackles rushing
the passer. Zach Bond the linebacker. He's the fifth highest
rated player in coverage, not amongst the linebackers, amongst all players,

(17:15):
and he's a freaking linebacker. Like the Eagles are given
up six point one eight yards per pass attempt, and
then the Panthers defense, while it's getting healthier, it's really
just terrible against the run, you know, basically bottom three.
And that's being generous. Like if you average every overall number,
Saquon could get two thousand yards for the season. By

(17:39):
the end of this game, he could have five hundred yards.
So I don't know. I think we want to bet
the Panthers based on the number, but I feel like
we're going to eat it.

Speaker 2 (17:50):
That's very like just the off the field stuff though,
like the human side of it, or where this is
a game where they just played the Ravens. Now they're
playing against a three and nine Panthers team at home
a week before they go and play a Pittsburgh team,
Like this is such an in between game where it's
like spot it really is. It doesn't get more trapped

(18:11):
than this. That's another really glaring spot where I like it.
The reason I didn't really bang your head about this one,
it's just because I wanted the thirteen and I've been
pissed off, where like the professionals have kind of held
it under the thirteen, Like the highest we're getting right
now and most books is twelve and a half. Where
it's like, you know, no one's taking like you just said,
no one's taking Carolina. You think everyone in the world

(18:32):
doesn't feel the same as you. The only people I
know are obviously professionals taking this Carolina spot. It's just
it's such a spot to take them because of the
in between and the fact that this offense, like you
just said, Okay, they're not the best team obviously defensively,
but we've seen it change offensively with the passing game.
And you know, as much as I say out great,

(18:53):
this Seagos defense is they're young. I mean they had
you know, they've had a couple injuries as well to
this defenses as well, Iklan Ship, Brandon Graham and a
young defense that's feeling themselves right now. Where there were
guys open. I don't want to say Lamar lost that
game last week, but he did miss open receivers and
their kicker. If he had made those kicks, it's a

(19:14):
much different game right towards end there, Like the Eagles,
you know, they're up fourteen to twelve, and then Justin
Tucker missed that field goal the when they should ed
up fifteen twelve, and then because you missed it, bank
Eagles were down the red zone. Saquon ran it in
and it's like, okay, totally different game now, right it
was twenty one to twelve at that point. So I
do think this Eagles team is just a little overrated
right now, where it's like, yeah, are they very good?

(19:35):
Are they should they be said to be the best
team in NFC? Right now. Yeah, because they're healthy, right,
Detroit had so many injuries. I get the respect to him.
I just think it's gone through far at this point.
That's the whole point for me with this one, where
it's like the Stummer should be closer to ten. It's
a nice in between spot where you expect them not
to overlook this Panthers team, but how can they not? Right,
It's the human element of it, where it's like you

(19:55):
just took down the big bad wolf of the Ravens,
like a team that Lamar only in his whole career,
only lost one time to an NFC team, and you
smacked them. You're feeling good all week, you're home now
against the Panthers. You're not gonna look ahead to Pittsburgh
when you know that's literally the last tough game when
they're s I mean watching it's tough, obviously, but that
really is going to decide their one seed because Detroit here,

(20:17):
if they dropped us to Green Ben and they got
Buffalo next week really quickly, the Eagles could become this
one seed. So I feel like it's a lot to
weigh on this young team of this Philadelphia. So for
all that chat, that's the only reason I'm like, Okay,
maybe I'll commitch you comes Sunday they take this Panthers team.
But it's really it's about the number. It's like, if
I'm not getting a great number here, Okay, we want
we don't have to put it in. But if this

(20:39):
is up to thirteen and a half contest Sunday, Chad,
I'm gonna probably be an asshole and be like, we
got to put this in, blah blah blah. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (20:45):
But by the way, I feel like the thirteen was
the line of demarcation for me, and I'm trying to
be really disciplined as we head into the end of
the year and not not chase feelings and put them
into numbers. Right, we missed the best of the number. Thirteen

(21:06):
feels better to me.

Speaker 2 (21:07):
And we talked about so the number has not burned
us this year. The only US are three and Two's. Look,
it's been a really weird year where these big numbers
have not mattered.

Speaker 1 (21:16):
Old habits die hard and for.

Speaker 2 (21:19):
Justin for this season, I agree with you. But for
this season it's just been twos and threes that have
really matter. Everything else not so much.

Speaker 1 (21:26):
Look, it's it's funny you say that, Like you can
look in the Action app and there's a really cool
feature that tells you your sort of performance against the
closing line value and your ROI against the closing line value,
and like it's it comes into play so infrequently, but
you still want it, Like, yeah, you don't want to
buy high and sell low. You want to get the

(21:47):
best of the number. You want to feel better on
Sunday morning. I want to see in the app that
I've got it at thirteen and a half and now
it's at twelve and a half and all those kinds
of things I.

Speaker 2 (21:54):
Told you, stuper gamling of ass. When you lose a
Betty go, well, at least I had the best of
the number. It's that's that's the main part of it.

Speaker 1 (22:00):
Yeah, by the way, I've never said that in my life.
When I lose a game, I'm like, are you fucking
kidding me? Why did I even care about this number?
Why did I like race to bet this to beat
the move when it didn't even matter. I don't disagree
with anything you're saying. I feel skittish about I think

(22:20):
this Eagles team, and I felt this way last week.
I think it's on an upward trajectory. I think the
way they're playing minimizes their weaknesses, which is really Jalen
Hurts as a passer. I think their defensive line is
so good that that minimizes the emotional up and down
because when you're playing physical, you're playing physical, right, That's
not about what happens on the edge. And I think

(22:42):
I think skilled players, to me are more inclined to
be prone to emotional roller coaster mistakes than players are
the defensive line, and their defensive line is just so good.
So that's my fear. But look, we'll talk about it
on Sunday. We'll see where we land. Atlanta at Minnesota.
My exec decision. I did it with clarity and confidence.

(23:04):
If I recall, and as you know, as you've said,
the wise guys are with me. It's moved up since
the show, in fact, as the show is happening at
moved from five to five and a half. It is
a pros Joe split tickets on the Falcons money on Minnesota.
I guess, as you've noted, the public is buying into
the very lazy, fascile Kirk Cousins revenge narrative. We disagree, Yeah,

(23:31):
we know that it would.

Speaker 2 (23:32):
Though, it's just it's the lowest of hanging fruit and
that's the easiest fruit to grab. So yeah, yeah, this
one's shocking to me because I really didn't think it
would get back to six, especially where you know you're
able to get four and a half when you were
talking about on Tuesday, like that's that's a great number now,
especially now that it is touching six and a lot
of books, and you know, for me, this matchup, it's

(23:53):
it's really all about, like we just said, the defense
here where I do have faith now in this Viking offenses.
Sam Darnold's got more comfortable, but this defense I just
can't get it out of my head where it's like,
isn't this the perfect matchup for them against Kirk, I
guy they know in their style is what gives him fits.
It just feels like it's that's the fear is it

(24:14):
feels too easy chat because it's like five and a
half stilled a lot of books. It feels like a
gift like we always talk about where it's like it's
still blow this key number of six, you know, them
rolling them, blowing them out, or this coming down to
they're up fourteen and Kirk gets the late touchdown and
they get the two pointer and it Land's right on six.

(24:35):
That sounds about right. So that's why I think the
number should be six. It's like, that's that's where this
game's gonna go. So yeah, if you if you took
like I threw a little in Atlanto. I mean there
was one book that had the six last Sunday when
we talked about it. Obviously my bets have dwarfed that
for this Minnesota side. If you were stubborn you do,

(24:56):
like Atlanta, I would just wait like every product talk
was coming in on this Viking side for the most part.
So it's like if they're gonna keep taking respected money,
they'll keep bumping it up, and you know the public,
they'll come in on their teasers. Right, this is like
this in Miami. It's gonna be a big tease team.
They're both at six. Everyone's gonna take it down to
a pick. That's just what people like to do on

(25:17):
their teasers. So this could easily keep going up. So
if you're like me and chatty, like Minnesota, grab the
five and a half while you still can, if you
haven't already.

Speaker 1 (25:25):
Yeah, the things that Kirk cousins struggles against the most
pressure in the pocket are what the Vikings excel at.
Right He's facing a defense that is fourth in sacks,
third in QB pressures, second in blitz rate, also the
top ranked defense for rushing efficiency defending rushers inside the tackles,

(25:47):
number two outside the tackles. The most effective weapon the
Falcons actually have right now isn't Kirk Cousins, isn't Drake London.
Definitely isn't Kyle Pitts. It's John Robinson playing like a
pro bowler. But that also plays with the Viking strengths.
And I think that the wise guy. See what we
see about Kirk is how terrible he was against the

(26:10):
Chargers when they really weren't getting any pressure, and that
unless he's playing the Bucks, he's kind of having a
terrible year. And so this is a I am a
little bit worried. It's funny, you know, I said, I'm
trying to be more disciplined. I'm also trying to be
more disciplined with the bank roll. And I got this

(26:32):
at five, but I didn't put I know, I got
it a five and a half. I didn't put a
ton on because I was kind of hoping it would
come down to five. And now I got to make
a decision. Do I just increase the amount of money
I'm putting on at a five and a half, which
I'm going to because I wanted to get a little
bit better number. I'm not going to get it. I'm
going to have to live with the five and a half.

Speaker 2 (26:53):
Yeah, And with Kirk, I'll just say whatever's gone along.
He has been awful the last three weeks, even after
coming out of that bio. I mean he you know,
no touchdowns, no touchdowns, six picks, six picks, just been
a disaster. And you know, you think only it's only

(27:14):
the people in media saying Michael Pennox's name, Like there's
obviously gonna be whispers in that locker room. That's someone
they see every day in practice, that apparently has looked
pretty good all year in practice and even coming to
the year. Remember they sat him, Yeah, it was the
second week of August because there was obviously a fear
even then with Kirk coming back from this injury, and
it's just different, like he just does not have the step,

(27:36):
he doesn't step in the throw the same zip on
the ball, with everything that goes into it. So, yeah, Chad,
this is one I can guarantee people is gonna be
in our contestespecially a five and a half.

Speaker 1 (27:45):
Well, look, if you're also watching Caleb Williams the last
three games really developing, if you've seen Jayden Daniels playing well,
if you've seen Drake may ballin, if you've seen bo
Nicks playing like a pro like truly developing, You're gonna
be like, if the rookie quarterbacks are this developed and

(28:05):
Michael Pennix is on that plane, we want to know,
we want to see it, we want to take advantage
of it. And by the way, the next offensive coordinator,
head coach at quarterback who can figure out how to
use Kyle Pitts might go into the Hall of Fame
because he's now going through multiple levels of coaches, quarterbacks
and coordinators who cannot figure out how to get him
involved in the offense.

Speaker 2 (28:26):
So do you think we ever see any teams ever
after Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins coming back from their
achilles ever give money to a quarterback after the edge
of what thirty five thirty six with a coming off
an achilles?

Speaker 1 (28:38):
Of course we will, we one hundred percent will because
everyone believes they can be the one to turn it around.
Everyone's got a god complex, everyone is hoping, everyone is
looking for the handrail on the roller coaster. Of course
we're going to do it. There's not a question in
my mind. Past glory will always remain Chicago, San Francisco.

(29:00):
It's interesting you say the Bears are four point dogs
here and better number than we got on Tuesday. So
the wise gun money has come in on the Niners.

Speaker 2 (29:10):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (29:10):
We actually asked on Tuesday is the value on the Niners?
And you said that it's feeling very public. The Bears
and the Seahawks are shaping up to be the biggest
public dogs of the week. If you're looking at the splits,
seventy three percent of the tickets on the Bears, sixty
percent of the money on the Niners. Like, I think

(29:33):
the Niners are in real trouble physically, and I still
think I like the Bears.

Speaker 2 (29:41):
Yeah, And I'm letting you kind of drive this boney
where I was just happy to sit this on out
because it's like, I want to be with you on
the Bears. But when I'm talking to every guy who's
saying exactly what I said, which is in my lifetime.
This is a spot I hammer this forty nine ers
team like this is always a spot I take this team,
especially at this number. But my pause is what we

(30:03):
talked about. The Foyners have so much bullshit going on
off the field outside their injuries. You know, this the
turmoil of the drama right now. I mean their media
falling along and seeing everything going on, the conversations being had,
even Kyle Shannon's demeanor. It's like, this is the team
that went to the super Bowl last year. They just
feel like everything's totally different this year. Confidence is totally

(30:24):
gone by Shanahan m Purdy. The biggest one to me
is what me and you talked about, which just this
Barriers team. It feels like they really fucking hated eber
Through like he's gone, like the ding Dong the Witch
is dead. It seems like that to me is the
biggest thing where it's like, are we reading too much
into it, betting too much on a team that we

(30:45):
expect will come out here and play hard together as
a unit and play for something where I still don't
know what the Foyers are playing for. People are like, well,
they're playing for a playoff spot. They've been playing for
that all season. Like I hate that where it's like
I don't think they have it in them, Like they
just don't seem like they have a dog in the fight.
But yeah, obviously we expect this is their last ditch effort.

(31:06):
This is gonna be their everything game. I get why
the professionals are coming on the forty niner side, but
I just can't get out of what we talked about
how much it seemed like that Bears team hated their
head coach. He's gone. We've seen it before in these
exact spots where teams just play hard for their interim coach.
And I just don't think the Bears are that bad,
Like I feel like, no, no, like they really aren't.

(31:27):
Like they have talent on both sides of the ball,
and we've kind of seen that play out this year
where you know they have covered in what three four
straight weeks and crazy back door you could say, flukey covers.
But it's what we talked about. Kayleb Williams, He's a
guy that never gives up, could push the ball downfield,
and you've seen that now after the Minnesota game where
he came back and that game against Green Bay, Ree

(31:48):
came back in that game against Detroit. At the end
of the day, those games they probably should have won,
maybe came down to the coaching. They've just been playing
so much better these last couple of weeks since Fort
n iras team. So not go bullyis Chad, I'll stick
with you. I'll grab the plus four with Chicago.

Speaker 1 (32:04):
Yeah, I guess at the end of the day, if
we're talking about we always like playing teams when they're
dogs and they have a new coach, and that we've
we've seen that win consistently. We saw it happen again
this year with New Orleans, right, and New Orleans has
less talent than the Bears. I think there's a lightness

(32:27):
in that locker room and relief for that team and joy.
They'll just play with, you know, unabandoned joy, knowing that
they don't have to worry about earber Fluse fucking it
up at the end of the game.

Speaker 2 (32:44):
More than they probably want to show that he was
the problem. Right, Oh for sure. Yeah, also for that
hell Mary, and think how long ago that was?

Speaker 1 (32:52):
Will they hold They've been they've been snatching losses from
the jaws of victory. For a month in the most crazy, awkward,
inane ways. So the Bills will be on the list.
I mean, what's scary right now, Simon, is We've got
on our list two you know, mid sized favorites in

(33:16):
Minnesota and Miami. So we're playing with fire a little
bit here, especially since one of the other games we
like the other day, Buffalo is a four point favorite
at the RAMS. I gotta tell you what. We talked
about it on Tuesday. I felt pretty confident. By the
time I closed my computer yesterday, much less confident. The

(33:42):
line had moved in the Rams direction all of a sudden.
I was just feeling like, are we at the peak
of the Bills market. I know we'd like them to
win in these spots, and that they do tend to
cover in these spots, but they just came off a
stretch where they had like statement wins against the teams
they have to be in the Niners and the Chiefs

(34:04):
and the Rams are in a knife fight to win
their division and still think they can do it. The
move is on the Rams right now. And you even
said it in sort of sharp calls.

Speaker 2 (34:17):
Yeah, I was shocked to talk to a lot of
guys like even yesterday, I'm in the book and talking
a couple of guys who I really respect, and they're
both like, this is our favorite bets of the week
is Rams, And all I could say was like, I've
been there, been there this season where I love the
Rams in this exact spot too, and it's just been
burning me. So they could be right, like you could
be right as well, where it's like, isn't this the

(34:38):
spot to sell this Bills team, especially you know, huge
win last week and they're heading to Detroit after this
game like this, yeah, there, this is the brutal stretcher.
But I can't get out of my mind, Chad, just
that this is Josh Allen's world and we're living in
it right now, and he's kind of broken a lot
of the rules this season. And he was someone where,

(35:01):
you know, I'll be the first to admit it, I
thought we had a pattern growing with him where he
was just going to be the team that beats up
on bad teams and then struggles against the playoff teams.
But that Chiefs game really changed my mind with that
where like, you know, no one beats my homes by
more than seven points, Like they really beat the hell
out of that Chiefs team. And even when I say

(35:22):
the Chiefs teams is not that good, this is a
Bills team that lost twenty to twenty three to that
Houston team. Right, they were down twenty to three at
one point in that game, and the week before that
they got demolished by that Ravens team thirty five to ten.
So it was like we had reasons to question this
Bills team since then. I mean, like you just talked about,
they've been one of the best best teams all football. Mean,

(35:42):
their only close game really was that Miami game, right,
they won what was it thirty to twenty seven something
like that, where it was like Tool had the Miami
in that game. So okay, maybe they still aren't the
best team against playoff teams. This Rams team is not
a playoff team. I mean we can both agree with that.
They're they are just lucky to be at six and
six right now. And yeah, okay, you don't want to

(36:04):
put this one in because it is it does feel
a little trappy. How am I not gonna agree with
you my whole life. I'm always on this other side
with this Rams team. I do just think it's just
Josh Allen's different. I'm confident in them, believe in them,
love the matchup for the run game though. That's the
biggest thing for me is this Rams team. We've seen
it now. You know, if Taysom Hill didn't go buy
of that game, I don't know if they're gonna come

(36:25):
back against that Saints team. Like it feels like the
Saints are kind of finding a groove there moving the ball.
Same with this Bills team. It's like, how do the
Bills not just run for one point fifty against this
Rams defense? I literally cannot stop the run, Like they
have no guys up front that can plug gaps and
really stop stuff. So all right, Chad, if youn't want
to put it in, I totally get it because it

(36:45):
is not a spot we usually take. But it's it's
all right, give me three and a half what the
professionals bet. I'll be the sucker. I'll be like the
Joe public here and I'll take the three and watching
Land right on three and me losing my three and
a half. But I can't help myself here. I'm just
I just love this Bills team and how are playing
right now?

Speaker 1 (37:01):
Well, look, we can keep it on the list. It's
not like we have fifteen games.

Speaker 2 (37:05):
You're like, am I really gonna make chap of four
favorites in? Look, here's I get it. I get it.

Speaker 1 (37:11):
And not just that we're the next game we're going
to talk about which is our big balls. So we
know it's going to go in will be the third
game in a row that is going completely against what
we normally do. So let's let's talk about these as
a package instead of sort of trying to talk about
them individually. But it is time to talk about our

(37:35):
big balls better than we presented by Tommy Jo. If
you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great
games start with great underwear. Tommy John makes the greatest
okay La Chargers four point dogs at Kansas City. Simon,

(37:59):
this is a game that is testing us, testing our faith,
it's testing our fidelity, it's testing our biases because at
first glance, we should love the Chargers, love them physical team,
a good coach, an elite quarterback who doesn't make mistakes.

(38:22):
Since Justin Herbert got healthy, they have been running more
play action, which is getting him much more many more
windows to throw downfield against the Blicks. His QBR has
improved from sixty three to eighty six. But then on Tuesday,
like during the show again in a conversation you and

(38:43):
I had like before the air, before we came on
the air, we couldn't get there. And like for me,
we talked about it on Tuesday. It's really about the injuries.
This team could not move the ball on the ground
after JK. Dobbins went out against the Ravens a couple
weeks ago, and they weren't any better against the Falcons,
like gaining only fifty six yards rushing. Ladd McConkie is

(39:06):
the only receiver who's been doing anything. He's been banged up,
limited in practice, has had shoulder issues all season. Now
he's got a knee injury that's newly diagnosed. We got
to go with the Chiefs.

Speaker 2 (39:20):
Yeah, and it's it really is. The thing we talked
about the Chargers team was really me and you having
a little bit of like we always backed the Chargers
at this number, even earlier this year we took the
seven and a half where.

Speaker 1 (39:29):
And always fade the Chiefs at this number.

Speaker 2 (39:31):
Right, And it's because it's been good to us, Right,
you're going back. I'm in the action app right, now
you look back in twenty two, they had two matchups.
Both times the Chiefs were favorites greater than three and
a half both times. Herbert Backdoor that covered like he
covered it both times, and that was obviously really good
to us. Now last year you kind of can throw
it out, right, the Chargers had a bunch of injuries

(39:53):
and then the final game of the year. I think
it was the backup playing for the Chiefs and same
for the Chargers, so you know, don't have much go
off that. But this year we've seen it now where
this this Chief's team. Chat to me, they looked burned out.
I don't know about you, but I felt like they
were burned out. And I read a really interesting article

(40:13):
the other day about Andy re giving them a little
mini bye week. Right, they had the Friday game and
they gave him off the weekend, had a couple of
guys come in Monday, obviously, but like overall, it seemed
like it was a nice thing to let that team
get away from it because they just look, you know,
beat like that defense getting rolled. It's just not something
we're used to with Spags And like you talked about,

(40:35):
the big thing to me, this Chargers team is out
loss of JK. Dobbins, they had no run game, and
I felt like they had no like I don't know,
not that they've been lucky this year, but they've been
a team that this year have just been able to
run the ball. Like you say, after they can run
it justin Herbert gets the open easy reads because of
the play action pass, and when you take that away,
it just looks so complicated and just awful, and he

(41:00):
looked uncomfortable. And again, this is against a Atlanta team
that's not that great at anything defensively, where this Chiefs
team we've seen as bad as they looked, you know
before that before they started playing bad these last couple weeks,
this is a defense that is really tough to run
on and has a pretty good secondary overall. So yeah,
this really is about playing this matchup and trying not

(41:20):
to overthinking where it's like, Okay, is this the lowest
we can buy right now? In the Chiefs this season,
it kind of feels like it would have been great
if this number got the three. Thought the professionals were
coming on the Chargers, but I told you each other
way most pros I've talked to you at this point
of coming on this Chiefs team. I get their viewpoint,
I get where they're coming from, and it I feel
like in agreeance with them that, Okay, the number moved

(41:42):
too much. If if it isn't three and a half
in contest chat and you don't want to put in
it because it's not three and a half, I get it,
because it's four and a half, it's obviously not ideal.
But I feel like at three and a half, we
might have to put this one in another favor. I
know it's crazy, but it's really all about buying in
these spots on these teams that I feel like the
public is underrating a little bit.

Speaker 1 (42:00):
Yeah, I agree with you, and I think if you
look at the Chief's injury report for the week, which
I did this morning, there's three guys on it. All
three of them were full participants in practice yesterday. Isaiah
Pacheco's not even on it. You know, he came back.
And expectation. Andy Reid is teasing that DJ Humphrey is

(42:23):
going to be starting at tackle left tackle for the
Chiefs and their biggest issue, and we could see it
in the game the other day, even on the touchdown
pass that Patrick Mahomes threw in the second quarter that
sort of awkward pass where he got hit and bent
over like he was yelling at the offensive line about

(42:43):
protecting him on a touchdown pass and yelling at Andy
Reid to get some of these guys to get that
right tackle out of the game. So and Juwan Taylor
constantly getting the same penalty over and over and over again.
So I think they're between the rest between DJ Humphrey
playing Andy Reid has been teasing it, the injuries dissipating.

(43:08):
I think it's the exact right spot. So I'm excited
that we kind of agreed on it. When we were
slacking this morning, I'm like, is he telling me he
doesn't like the Chiefs? Because now I'm in love with
the Chiefs. So I'm glad we could find a mind meld.

Speaker 2 (43:21):
Offered up the Chiefs and the Panthers, and you were like,
do you like the Chiefs? Here he goes, yeah, why
would I say them? I didn't know what helly you
were even talking about.

Speaker 1 (43:28):
Well, I just got confused because I'm like, I don't know.

Speaker 2 (43:32):
Listen, dude, I'm like, I get it, I get it.

Speaker 1 (43:36):
I'm want three hours asleep. Yeah, I'm trying to do
the job. I'm trying to do it well, but I
got to live my life. Okay, Listen, I can't be
getting up, taking care of kids and doing this job
while I'm out jetting around. Simon. We can hear the bells,
we can smell the gingerbread. The holiday season is upon us,

(43:58):
and with over twenty million pairs sold and thousands of
five star reviews, let's make the Gift of Tommy John
our newest holiday tradition. It always feels good to give
a thoughtful gift, but it feels great to give Tommy John.
You'll feel the warm glow of upgrading someone's life, and
with breathable comfort, they'll feel those special cringle tingles all

(44:24):
year long. Simon, why will you be giving the gift
of Tommy John this season? Oh?

Speaker 2 (44:30):
We love Tommy John, Chadat, I'm giving it because it's
the gift that last.

Speaker 1 (44:34):
Shop Tommy John dot com slash favorites right now for
the holidays and get thirty percent off site wide. Save
thirty percent off Tommy John dot com slash Favorites Tommy
John dot com slash Favorites. I gotta think that we're
responsible for at least half of those twenty million pairs sold.

(44:55):
The last game I want to talk about before we
dig into some round robins and get to evan Is,
Cleveland and Pittsburgh. So this was Simon says, very much
a cell high on Pittsburgh, right. We would do that
even if the other divisional and Tomlin factors didn't exist.

Speaker 2 (45:12):
We're gonna go in a tack mode. We will not
go gently. We're gonna unleash he out here in December
because we have to, because that's what's required.

Speaker 1 (45:19):
But teams in the Steelers current position, like the Eagles,
who are covering by five points per game, just forty
four percent against the spread against teams with winning percentages
of sixty percent or less, which is what thet with
the Browns have. And then there are Tomlin spots Is
a favorite, you know, in a variety of categories, all

(45:41):
of which have him covering less than forty five percent.
You know, we don't want to back Jamis after he wins.
We do want to back Jamis after he loses. Anything
change for you here.

Speaker 2 (45:52):
No, And even if Jamis had won last week and
this was still the number, I still think I'd be
able to talk abutself, you know, just because how can
you make a number this big in this division? It's
it's so rare in the AFC North, the blow teams out,
like you really have to be a really good team
playing against a team that simply gives up midway through
the game, Like could that happen here with Cleveland? Check?
Can we get caught? Sure? Right, that's always possibility. But

(46:16):
it feels like James has brought something to this team
that they were lacking. And you've seen in the plane
right the offense looks so much more open and fast,
and they just need the defense to catch up to them.
We know the defense has not been good this year,
and we talked coming in the year that defense from
you hear does not translating Jim Schwartz. I mean we
have history now data back it up. His splits from

(46:37):
year to year are incredible, like he either has a
top two, top three defense or a bottom ten, bottom
five defense. Even last week I was shocking. They talked
about they only had two interceptions or two takeaways on
defense all year before Bonnicks kind of threw a couple up.
So this is a Browns team that I understand why
no one's betting them, right, I think in the action
app right now, with all the money, all the tickets

(46:58):
right now ron Pittsburgh, I expect them to be the
biggest public side. No one's gonna believe that Cleveland's gonna
beat this team twice. That's how this division is. Though.
Pittsburgh could easily win this division and sweep the Ravens
Cincinnati and then somehow gets swept by Cleveland, who maybe
only has four or five wins come to the season.
Like that happens all the time this division. It's just
a very weird, wonky way that it plays out. So

(47:20):
I'm I can't help it. Like I love this number
six and a half. Like I said, there's still a
book in Jersey, where as a seven, which is incredible.
So this is another number that I think professional money
will come in. I think I'll be driven down. I
could easily see this being six being one of the
bigger sides when of the bigger parlays. And I can't
wait to put an arm money line on a Robin.
I just love this for an upset for this Cleveland team,

(47:41):
especially like we just talked about, like this Pittsburgh team,
you know, not that we're trying to sell high on them.
But it's just like I talked about it last week,
how many of these fifty fifty balls is Russell's gonna
keep getting away with It's been incredible. They just keep
all connecting. It's gonna catch up to them. It's just
a matter of the very So yeah, Chad, I love

(48:02):
the Browns as you can tell.

Speaker 1 (48:03):
Look AFC, north Hatfield, McCoy's, MONTAGUESE and Capulets like it.
Just it's going to be close. We're on the Browns.
I feel better because at least now we know we're
gonna have a couple of a couple of underdogs potentially
in five.

Speaker 2 (48:21):
I had written down before it came on. Obviously I
get where you're coming on the Panthers. Was Cleveland and
the Panthers, and then the three favorites we like. I
like Miami, Vikings and the Chiefs. So if people don't
be shocked, if that's our five, if Chad somehow knocks
me out and I wake up in Chicago's in there
or the Seahawks are in there, also want to be
shocked either, because I get what you're saying. Those are
the more public sides. But obviously. I like those numbers.

Speaker 1 (48:43):
Yeah, I think we're exactly aligned. I had Minnesota, I
had Miami, I had Kansas City, I had Cleveland, and
my next in was between actually the Rams, the Panther
and the Bears. So we'll, you know, we'll hash it out,

(49:03):
we'll see what happens, and we'll do something today and
it could change on Sunday as it did last week,
and you know, and it might not even matter because
we'll end up in the set at the same spot,
because that's what karma is. Simon, can you name the
best ticketing app in the United States?

Speaker 2 (49:20):
Game Time?

Speaker 1 (49:22):
That's right, it's our beloved sponsor, game Time. As Simon
and I and all of our listeners know, I love
going to live games, NFL, NBA, college football, college basketball.
I just got back from the Duke game last night,
as you've heard. In fact, when I did my three
game three Nights Spectacular with my son last month, I

(49:45):
used game Time to buy tickets for all three games.
I don't listen. I'm I'm like everybody. I go to
game Time. I buy my freaking tickets just because they
sponsored the show. I go in and I use the product.
It is my thing. Favorite way to buy tickets. They've
got amazing last minute deals on games and concerts, and

(50:06):
their new feature called game Time Picks that makes getting
tickets to see your favorite teams play live even easier.
Game Time Picks filters out the fluff to show you
only incredible deals on greade seats, so you don't have
to waste time searching through thousands of tickets. Speaking of which,

(50:27):
I'm going to open the game Time app right now
from my house here in Connecticut's I see the super
deals for Yukon men's basketball. Next week, I'm getting tickets.
I'm getting tickets to see the two time national champs
for like less than forty five bucks. My favorite part

(50:48):
about game Time. They're all in pricing, shows me the
total cost upfront, no surprises, no matter where you live.
Take the guest work out of buying tickets with game Time.
Download the game Time app, create an account, use code
fait ritz for twenty dollars off your first purchase terms
apply again, create and account, Redeem code favor ritz for
twenty dollars off. Download game Time today. What time is it?

Speaker 2 (51:12):
Game Time?

Speaker 1 (51:14):
We got to give out our two team money line
Underdog Parlay bet three six five is going to boost
the odds highlight it on their site all weekend under
both game pages. And remember both games are eligible for
bet three six five's early payout promo, where your money
line pick gets marked as a win if they take
a seventeen point lead, even if they lose. So if
you want to bet this, bet it at bet three

(51:36):
sixty five. The boosted parlay is Bears and Seahawks. Find
the boost under either the Bears or Seahawks game pages
on bet three sixty five our money line underdog Round Robin.

Speaker 2 (51:50):
There will come up payday.

Speaker 3 (51:52):
Hallelu y'all wanna pay day.

Speaker 2 (51:54):
There will come up payday someday.

Speaker 3 (51:57):
Someday, there will come up.

Speaker 1 (52:02):
Day, will come up payday someday.

Speaker 2 (52:07):
We unfortunately we don't do the Thursdays for our best
three sixty five money lamb parlay because we want as
many people have to get in on it. If you
want to do a parlay with like green Bay and
Cleveland or something like that, I also love that moneylam parlay.
I know we don't get the boost of dodds, but
I just I mean, I think Chadzy agreens me. I
do think Green Bay is a Live Dog tonight to

(52:28):
pull the off set up on money Line around Robin Chad.
We went with Seattle, Chicago, Cleveland. Chad got the l
A Rams in there, you sick go and the sickest
one of all can't quit it going the Giants at
the finish it off.

Speaker 1 (52:44):
Here's my thing. I think I'm on the right side here.
I know you don't agree with me, but the money
has come in on the Giants, I.

Speaker 2 (52:52):
Know, just scare the dexter Lawrence think scares the shit
out of me.

Speaker 1 (52:54):
Well, look, I'm a believer. I think the Saints shouldn't
be five and a half five. It's favorites against anybody.
Agree Wise, guys agree with me. They've moved the number
down from five to four and a half. So I'm
putting them in there because you gotta believe in the
New York pretending to play football Giants hashtag haptip. Thank you,

(53:15):
Chris Raybaum.

Speaker 2 (53:19):
I just want to say, but people understand what I'm
working with the I'm looking at our text, Shane exactly
this Chad under saying if I liked the Chiefs, my
text was Panthers or Chiefs for big balls. How could
I be more clear you're a crazy person, because I
was like, maybe I worried weird. Now I'm looking at
I'm like, how did he not? How could I?

Speaker 1 (53:39):
Do you want a question mark? Was there a question
mark at all?

Speaker 2 (53:43):
You're hilarious.

Speaker 1 (53:44):
I like, you know what, that's so funny? Oh you
said you did Panthers or Chiefs for big balls question mark.
I don't know why I interpreted that as you thinking
you know what it was because you were so on
the Chargers on Tuesday and I was too, and now
I'm on the Chiefs. I'm like, did we come to

(54:05):
a mind meld? So I was just that that's really
what it was, and I was so excited, Simon, what
are your biggest bets right now?

Speaker 2 (54:12):
Minnesota, Miami? Right now? Jump off the top? You know,
if you could get the plus seven with Cleveland with me,
like I've just been hammering that. As soon as we
get done this call, I'm literally going to Pa with
my aunt from England. We're making a quick stop at
a sports book, giving her the whole experience. When I'm
carting around a book bag full of cash and I'm
hitting that last book that stills a seven over in Pa.

(54:32):
So yeah, heavy right now at Cleveland, Minnesota, Miami.

Speaker 1 (54:37):
Listen, the family the bets together. I want you to
give your aunt a very hearty English hello. Hello, Auntie,
Scoots Roulette. Who is your Scoot Roulette?

Speaker 2 (54:49):
Pick?

Speaker 1 (54:49):
This week?

Speaker 3 (54:51):
When all hope is lost, all this left is relief,
Let's play Scoots Roulette.

Speaker 2 (55:00):
Did you not win last week?

Speaker 1 (55:02):
I had Denver and I think you go first, but
I think you had Green Bay.

Speaker 2 (55:07):
Yeah yeah, but you're coming off you had won the
week before. All right, I'm just trying to keep it fair.

Speaker 1 (55:12):
I appreciate that I'm going to Cleveland.

Speaker 2 (55:14):
You show a bitch. Yeah. As soon as I said, sorry,
well let's flip it, then I'll go. I'll take your Vikings.
I'll go five and a half vikings.

Speaker 1 (55:23):
I was trying to figure out what exactly is he
going to say when I say I'm going with Cleveland.
I thought you'd say it like you Listen. Before we
get out of here, we got to bring in director
of Research, Evan Abrams, for the final word. You better
make us feel good, Evan.

Speaker 2 (55:37):
The last word with Evan Abrams, we're finished talking.

Speaker 3 (55:43):
We're going to start off talking about mister Enigma. That's
where we're going to start off talking about if you
know what I'm talking about, then you know if you've
seen the Netflix documentary. Of course, I'm talking about Aaron Rodgers.
He had said this week that he is reinventing redoing
his home in New Jersey. So it sounds like he's
very comfortable and and he's not comfortable in the road.
And that's actually showed up in his status this year.

(56:04):
So at home, his passer rating twenty points higher than
the road, his completion percentage seven points higher home versus road.
He has ten more twenty plus yard plays at home
than he does on the road. On the road this year,
rodgers Is completion percentage over expected is the worst of
any quarterback in the NFL any quarterback hole. And Rogers's

(56:25):
three total covers this year, opponents have only scored thirty
three total combined points in those games. So if Miami
can put points on the board, I'm not exactly sure
how the Jets are going to stay there. Now, I'll
give you this as well. So Sunday night Miami was
minus seven. Of course, now it's down to five and
a half. Here we go again. Every single week the
Jets are getting action. Only two games have seen action

(56:48):
on the board. As of this morning, the Jets and
the Rams Bills are down to three and a half.
Jets are getting money again.

Speaker 2 (56:57):
I don't know what to do, but.

Speaker 1 (56:58):
This is ridiculous.

Speaker 3 (57:00):
It seems like we're just going through the same thing.
And I got one more for you. And this is
this is right up your alley. You're gonna love it
because I knew what you guys were gonna take today.
We looked back at the Tuesday rundown. I was like,
this one's a hammer trivia time. Guess the quarterback with
the most turnover worthy throws this season, and he guesses.
Cousins nailed it. Cousins with no way two more than

(57:23):
any other quarterback. The next closest would be Gina Smith.
Now he doesn't just have bad bros. He's also really
crappy with pressure too. Cousins has faced four teams with
a four plus percent sack percentage. Now that is opponent
percentage of plays that ends in a sack, very simple.
In those games, zero to four against the spread this

(57:44):
year the worst of his entire career. So off the surgery,
off the injury, with the offensive line just not dealing
well with pressure and he's throwing the ball at the
other team. I don't know what to say other than
you know he's facing Minnesota, which you know, not only
the best Stephens in the league, but also a team
with best blitz percentage, Like second most pressures should be

(58:05):
a fun day.

Speaker 1 (58:07):
I don't know how we got to this place that
we love too six to five and a half to
six and a half point favorites, But here we are.
We're betting what we see, which is fading Kirk Cousins
and Aaron Rodgers and aged quarterbacks who come off Achilles injuries.
Thank you Evan as a reminder of the Favorites. Podcast
is presented by Bet three six five and now new

(58:29):
Bet three six five. Customers get one hundred and fifty
dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign
up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars place to
bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty
dollars bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never
ordinary at Bet three sixty five must be twenty one

(58:50):
or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions
restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next
episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page

(59:10):
Sunday night, seven thirty pm Eastern to recap NFL week fourteen.
Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, Rate, review, subscribe,
leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is
the gift. Until next time, Love you. Action Network reminds

(59:37):
you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care
about has a gambling problem. Help us available twenty four
to seven at one eight hundred gambler