The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 17

As the dust settles from two underwhelming Christmas matchups, Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to talk NFL Week 17. Together they discuss an underdog spot for the Dallas Cowboys, the Chargers in a foxhole, and an intriguing spot for the Denver Broncos. Plus, we hear their boosted moneyline underdog parlay courtesy of bet365, their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, and so much more. 

And as a reminder, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is almost ready to crown a first place finisher! Be sure to submit picks this week by SATURDAY at 1pm ET, not Sunday! Earlier cut off time for this week only. Just visit  Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to make your picks today. #Volume #herd

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast presented by BED
three sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I am
live from my Tommy John home studio. I am joined
as always by Mike cost my companion, Michael Padre, my
BFF professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, So I'm in.

Speaker 2 (00:28):
Hello Chad. Do you have a nice holiday?

Speaker 1 (00:30):
Beautiful holiday? We celebrated the traditional Jewish Christmas. We went
to a movie. We got Chinese food. It was semi
glorious because it turns out I don't like Chinese food
and I'm eating the Chinese food. And I said to
my wife, you know what, I just don't like it.

(00:53):
Every year we get it and I don't like it,
and she goes, every year, you say it, Why do
you have to say it? And my son goes, yeah,
don't yuck, our young dad. The good news is no
one gave me a cake, which I wouldn't have eaten
because I'm like Patrick Mahomes, I'm like Derrick Henry, I'm
like Lamar Jackson. I am in my playoff diet because

(01:16):
I'm always in my playoff diet because sugar and carbs
are the enemy and we know this, and I feel
like Netflix should have had more forethought to not offer
a cake. Two professional athletes who are so specific about
their diet. What do you think of that?

Speaker 2 (01:32):
I don't mind it. I don't know how I feel
still about the Netflix experience, what about you? But it
kind of throws off trying to flip between NFL and NBA,
which I wasn't too big with a fan of like
it made it more of a hassle. And I noticed
the commercials on Netflix, like you know, the two minute drill.
I think one team punted and they immediately went to
another commercial after already doing a commercial with the two

(01:54):
minute mark. And it's like, oh god, this is the
part of capitalism I hate. It's just getting way too aggressive.
So I'm excited to see what the numbers are Chad,
because those are two bad games from I would say
the general public's perspective, But I honestly enjoyed it. We
saw like two of the best quarterbacks just doing their thing,
dominating teams that you know they are playoff teams, so

(02:15):
you can tell some teams are getting ready ramping it
up heading into the playoffs. Other teams are just hanging
on right, just limping into the playoffs because it's been
such a long season, so weah pretty insane Christmas Day games.

Speaker 1 (02:26):
It was really telling. Yeah, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs
when we were talking about this game, we basically said,
are we buying this team that is getting better and
is proving it with Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, they
are all of a sudden, they've been hanging on to

(02:47):
get to fifteen to one, fifteen and one the last
three games. They are legit. And it's hard to say
that about a fifteen to one team, but boy, now
they get three weeks to get everybody held healthy, to
get the first round game, the second round game at home,
to have that advantage. It is setting up so perfectly

(03:08):
for them and the Ravens, like all of a sudden,
their defense looks better. It had been getting better. The
back half of that defense have been getting better and better.
They were helped because, boy, we've been talking about CJ.
Shroud looking terrible all year. They made him look like
a rookie. In Week one. He could not hit passes.

(03:28):
He was getting taking bad sacks. This Texans team and
the Steelers too, What happened was all four teams did
what we thought they were going to do and what
they've been proving to do all year. They were exactly
who their records in play showed they were exactly.

Speaker 2 (03:50):
Yeah, but it's also I do think it's about what
we talked about the injuries. Like the Ravens, their whole
offense is healthy. The Houston, you know, they've lost their
two receivers, they have a bunch of on the offensive line,
and like you said a couple weeks ago, Joe Mixon
has not looked right, like he just not had the
same burst hitting the holes the same way. And for
that Pittsburgh game, I think it's a blessing, honestly, this

(04:13):
last stretch here, because now I think they might avoid
paying Russell Wilson legit money. Like there was a minute
there they were about to give him, like what a
three year, one hundred million dollar contract, and you know,
they basically hit a wall with him that he just
as good as he is, right as good as he looked,
you can still see that he just makes these really

(04:33):
bad mental errors that just catch up with him. So yeah,
it's it's a good time for people been favorites. Man
like this is just the craziest time we're living in.
You just blindly bet these favorites and they're just cashing.
No problem.

Speaker 1 (04:45):
Two more, two more road favorites cash. Yesterday Steelers lost
at home, the Texans lost at home, the Ravens won easily,
the Chiefs one easily. Let's get into it today. As
our NFL Week seventeen Best Bets episode, Simon and I
will narrow down our five picks for the favorites one

(05:05):
hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them Contest presented by
Bet three sixty five. We will also get into the foxhole,
give out our Tommy John Big Balls bet of the Week,
discuss Simon's biggest bets are boosted, money line, Underdog Parlay,
the underdog round Robin, and so much more. Bets are
rolling in lines, removing decisions need to be made. As
our volume podcast, Boss Colin Coward likes to say there's

(05:27):
a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the
Favorite Podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and
now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get one hundred
and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars.
Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit ten dollars place
to bet for five dollars to get one hundred and
fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be
used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever

(05:49):
the moment, it's a never ordinary at bet three six
five must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Penncilvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned
restrictions apply before we get to sharp calls. Another reminder,

(06:13):
if you are participating in the Favorites Pick Them contest
this week, your picks must be in by one pm
on Saturday, not Sunday. We're including the Saturday games. That
means you must make your picks by one pm on Saturday.
Get those picks in by Saturday, not Sunday for week seventeen.

(06:35):
Good luck all right. Wise, guys always have an opinion
on what we're talking about, even over Christmas they don't rest,
just another football week for them. Lines are moving based
on our conversations. We're going to hear what the sharps
have to say. Simon, let's do it. Sharp calls Hello,

(06:56):
who's there?

Speaker 2 (06:56):
I'm talking rain rain down.

Speaker 1 (07:00):
Somebody saying many.

Speaker 2 (07:05):
It's obviously I hit the book after our show on Tuesday,
but I didn't go to any sports books yesterday. Did
go up to the runner's house yesterday either like it.
I mean, obviously there's too much going on. Let people
have some time off theither family. I'm not a total
cycle path, so this is a little be This will
be like a shorter version of it, just in the
sense of not that everyone scared off because all these
favorites have just been hitting, but like there's no confidence

(07:27):
behind these guys bets right now. Which is very interesting
because there's a couple of lines this week I really liked.
I've stood out to me, and it doesn't seem like
everyone's jumping on the same boat with us. The ones
you nailed, Chad, especially on Sunday. A lot of pros
I've talked you really liked the rams. They liked that side.
A lot of pros I've talked through really like the
Green Bay side, and we've seen that number at a
couple of books flip to this point, which I can't

(07:49):
lie to you. Chad's making me like Minnesota even more
because it's just like, yeah, people just have not believed
in them all season, Like this is this is not
that shocking and it's not a game. I'm rushing a
bet because I'm just hoping I get it too, Like
give give me a plus two on the Vikings at home,
Oh my god, that'd be a gift. A lot of
guys agree with. On the Panthers right, that number fell

(08:11):
too high. Shockingly, I saw a couple of books touch
eight and a half with it. Now a couple books
are back down at seven and a half, which again
for a minute, I was like, what am I missing here?
Like even that dog to me felt like a dog
mean you were gonna be on no matter what this week.
I'm glad it's come down because it was scare me off.
And then again we debated. I thought way more people
would be on New England. I don't think guys are

(08:31):
willing to put up that much big money on this
New England side, and it could just be because they
are so bad and dogs just aren't hitting like they
had they're used to right, Like, to me, this number
I thought would be down to three three and a
half come today, it's gone the other way, like it's
up to four and a half in a lot of books.
So I think guys are just a little gun shy
and they're they're more heavy into taking these favorites. Especially

(08:52):
it's a good week for teasers, Like we already talked
about it. It's a week where you could take these
numbers down against bad teams that sure they might not
cut for this huge spread of eight, but they're gonna
cover two or three, Like they're gonna cover those those numbers.
So yeah, for dogs that guys agree with us on.
We're a land in Carolina and we talked about it.
We both bet it Detroit got down to minus three.

(09:15):
I know some smart money on the other side of it,
But me and you talk about I think they're misreading
Dan Campbell like he's talked about they're gonna go all
out and not sit and rest this game. I think
they're banking on them resting for this game. So yeah,
very very interesting game of or week. I should say,
I'm just professionals taken favorites not so much the dog
so's it's finally going the other way. I think guys

(09:37):
are finally been beating down to this point chat of
just being like, man, it's just simpler to bet these
favorites right now, they're just you know what we talked
about right that the teams are more aggressive on going
for it on fourth downs and the shortened fields has
really helped these favorites. So it's a unique, unique season
that continues to favorite the favorites.

Speaker 1 (09:56):
Well, guess what we're gonna kick it off right away,
something we never do. We'll discuss. It's our big balls.
Better the Week presented by Tommy John. If you've got
the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great games start
with great underwear, and Tommy John makes the greatest right

(10:18):
off the bat. The LA Chargers. They're minus four and
a half right now at New England. This was a
history making conversation on Tuesday, and this is what a
weird year it is. It's the first time ever you
have not just warned me against an exact decision, you outright,
you outright feet do it. But then in our chat

(10:40):
this morning, I feel like you're as beaten down as
I am on this, and I think yesterday even sort
of confirm that, and then getting this validation from the
professional betters. This is the first year we would ever
even think about making a road favorite, going cross country

(11:01):
in this spot against a massive trend, against the luck rankings,
first time we would make them a big balls. But
I will say, you know you said the numbers moved
from four to four and a half. I couldn't resist anymore,
and I gave myself a little gift yesterday Christmas morning gift,
and I betted it for a completely irrational splurge. We

(11:24):
may be off, but I don't know. I just love
the Chargers here.

Speaker 2 (11:30):
Yeah, honestly I was. It was the same thing with Cleveland,
where I was like, it's going to be cold in
the North. These teams coming from warm climates tend to
struggle late in December in these exact scenario, especially a
team like the Chargers play indoors. It's once again like
we already talk about it's coming in the fifties and rainy,
like the it's gonna be warm in a lot of
these North North games. And it honestly came down to
the coaching Chad, like I just I have more faith

(11:53):
in this Chargers team be prepared for this game, and
less faith in a New England team that basically felt
like that was their super Bowl last week against the
Bills and all the bounces went their way for the
most part, and they still couldn't win that game. And
you know, the only really bad player I could think
of was the backward pass by Drake May. But it's

(12:14):
like not that we expected, but it's like he's a rookie.
He's gonna make stupid little mistakes like that. And the
Chargers are a team that that's all they do. They
just wait for you to make a mistake. Once you
make it, the capitalize and then it's basically over. And
we've seen it this season, Like you know, we've I
feel like done pretty well knowing when to be on
the Charger and when to get off of them. And

(12:35):
I thought this was a spot to get off this
Chargers team. But you know, the more I've talked to people,
the more I've dove into it, it's like, all right,
Chad's right. I should have trusted my initial gut reaction
of the Stummer's too low, Like I said, my model
had this at six, So to me, they're still showing
value here. And you know, if we come in here
Sunday night and this is the game, we do lose,

(12:55):
and it's like we're kicking ourselves because we knew it
was a trap that would be brutal. But we talked
about this year has just been different. This isn't that
type of spot. Doesn't matter what the books need, doesn't
matter that it's a good home dog. This number just
feels too low to me on the side. So that's
why I do support taking the Chargers.

Speaker 1 (13:12):
So we went through this on Tuesday too. You just
repeated almost verbatim what I put in my notes to
talk about today. As to ultimately why I liked this game.
I thought it had come down way too much because
of how the Pats played against the Bills. That was
a that was the exact we screwed that game up.

(13:36):
I don't think we're screwing this game up. They came out.
Drake may won with his legs. He's been accurate. We
know that he's going to do that. But it's different
when the spread is fourteen and a half than when
it's four. And so many of these games this year
are coming down to the coaching decisions, Harbaugh always makes

(14:00):
the right one. He's a football savant. The way he
played the end of that first half against the Broncos,
that's what swung the game right, calling the time out,
making them kick it, getting the penalty, like those things
can only line up if he's thinking about strategically, how
am I going to manage every second of this game?

(14:23):
And he just does that better than Girod Mayo. I'm
not saying Mayo won't do it one day. He might.
He might, like he had a good call with that
fake punt last week against the Bills, right like why
not be more aggressive, have a good time. But he's
not the strategist that Jim Harbaugh is yet. And so
that's what it came down to for me when I

(14:43):
kept looking at him like this just it doesn't make sense,
and we've been proven right and moved back up this morning.

Speaker 2 (14:50):
I don't know about I don't know about Mayo though,
because I also honestly I've heard so many whispers about
the Veriabal story line him coming back that we don't
know what the are in that locker room right now either,
So it could all just be very negative for New England.
And maybe that's the part we're missing that this Chargers
seem just going to roll this team in this week.

Speaker 1 (15:08):
Well we hope so, because it's our big balls bet
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Speaker 2 (16:02):
It's the gift that last.

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That's right right now, you can shot Tommy john dot
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Tommy john dot com slash favorites. That's Tommy john dot
com slash favorites. Denver Broncos visiting the Cincinnati Bengals.

Speaker 3 (16:21):
Pro Football's two superpowers renew their classic rival.

Speaker 1 (16:26):
I can't quit this one. It was like another one
that was in consideration for big balls. It's another one
sort of that I gifted myself on Christmas Day when
it moved to three and a half, I took it
at three and a half. It's since moved back down
to three. What are your thoughts here?

Speaker 2 (16:44):
I feel supportive of it just because of the sentiety defense.
We talked about it on Tuesday, a little bit of
just I don't think they're good enough to be giving
up a hook to a team like Denver that can
move the ball offensively, and even when Bonnicks makes stupid
turnovers and mistakes, it doesn't slow him down. He just
comes back and keeps slinging it, and Trumpayne kind of
has that trust in him that he'll keep letting them
push the ball downfield. And defensively, I feel like that's

(17:06):
an edge for this Denver team that actually have a
good defense that can rush the passer. And you know,
obviously Joe Burrow have an incredible season, but how many
times we've seen him kind of shoot himself on the
foot at some point of the game. It's not not
his fault, it's just so much put on his shoulder.
And to me, that's why this game feels like I'll
be close. And I know Denver doesn't need this one, right,
it's they need to win one of the next two.

(17:29):
Obviously they want to win this one. But you know,
that number, to me at three and a half is
just so tempting. I can't really pass on it. So
it's another game where it's like hard to like dogs
this week, but at this number against the Cincinnati defense,
it feels like a good opportunity. And yeah, matchup wise,
like really going through all the numbers are breaking it
down how this defensive line of Denver can match up

(17:50):
against the offensive line of the Bengals. It's really going
to work out for him, just because Joe Burrow, honestly,
he is one of the quarterbacks that does hold onto
the ball like he does take sacks the other guys
don't because he likes to push it downfield. It's too
Joe Is. I think we're kind of starting to figure
that out where. You know, for a while there, we'd
always blame his offensive line. Is the years have gone
along here, it's like, well a lot of these are

(18:11):
self inflicted wounds by Joe, Like he's just not taking
the first open read. He wants to kind of test
the limits and push it downfield. So it's all about
the number here, Like you just said, it's shifting down
to three to a lot of books. So at three
and a half, especially contest wise, I would play it.
But if it was two and a half, would even
think about playing it. It's just it's all about getting
that hooked to me, because I do think the Bengals

(18:33):
will win it, but by more than a field goal
feels like a stretch.

Speaker 1 (18:37):
I think I agree with everything you're saying. You know,
when we talked about this on Tuesday, I liked it
because we've got a pass rush that can dominate the Bengals,
especially if Mimes and Brown are out. They were limited
participants on Tuesday. Haven't seen any updates, you know, Today

(18:59):
is sort of the key. But we saw what Cleveland
did against this Bengals team. They were all over the
Bengals backfield. They made Joe Burrow look better because he
had no choice but to look good when he's being
rushed constantly. They had four sacks. They were in his grill.
This brown this Broncos team is better in coverage than

(19:23):
the Browns. They've got just as good a pass rush,
and they've got an offense. Like the only reason the
Bengals covered that game is because they were playing Dorian
Thompson Robinson. So I stole this from Rayba on the
Action Network pod Bo nicks against bad defenses like below,
fifty percent of the league across a variety of metrics,
seven or zero straight up and against the spread, twenty

(19:46):
nine points per game, thirteen touchdowns, two picks. Damn that
makes you, I knew you like that. That makes you
feel better about it, right, you know? So yeah, and
like also, here's the biggest news to me. We've seen
this Broncos defense struggle the past few weeks against the
Browns and then the Chargers when Roley Moss was out

(20:09):
of the game, their cornerback. He was a full participant
in Tuesday. I would expect he's playing this weekend. So
it's more of the reason all the more reason to
like it. The one thing I would say about the
two and a half, and maybe Evan can help illuminate
this over the next few minutes and we'll come to
him in his segment. I think the two to two
and a half you're winning just as often as the

(20:33):
three to three and a half this season, so it's
something something to think about. Big Pros Joe's game. Pros
had been all over the Broncos in this game. I
put in Arizona at the Rams, even though it's at
six and a half. We're not going to play this one.
I think the number has moved so much, but I

(20:53):
want to keep it in because we discussed it so
much on Sunday and so much on Tuesday. I don't
want people to think we forgot about it, and then
you may in sharp calls like it got up to
seven yesterday before it came back down to six and
a half. Do you feel strongly about this game at
six and a half, that's what it'll be in the contest.

Speaker 2 (21:13):
I do like the Rams, but I do have other
favorites I like more just because of what we talked about.
I feel like the numbers move so much, you know,
Connors might give it a go, like that's a big
deal for Theirs. And I mean, I know that was
a two offensive linement they put on the IR they
lost after last week, I'd have to go back and look.
But I think so, you know, if they're losing two
offensive linement and they're number one running back, how do

(21:35):
we not love the Rams? Like, I know that they
don't have the greatest defense, but given that level where
it's all on Kyler, that tends to be the worst
spot you can be in if you're Arizona. Just Kyler
seems like he has not live up to the moment
this season and the fact that this Cardinals team, we
could say the best game of Kyler's career or I

(21:56):
guess just the season was against this Rams team earlier
this year when Rams were all banged up. You know,
they know that and they've been waiting for this opportunity,
and you know, iceing on the cake is like they
win this, they win the division, so they get a
mini bye week next week. That's a big deal. So yeah,
I love the Rams, But my worry chat is just

(22:16):
the numbers move too much. So I agree with you
on that.

Speaker 1 (22:18):
All right, So well, it's kind of a back burner game.
I just didn't want to leave it out. The next game,
Las Vegas Raiders at the New Orleans Saints, I'm falling
more and more in love with this as the Saints.
I don't tell you, but doesn't this feel like the
game where you one hundred percent go in on the Saints?

(22:42):
They just got blown out. The Raiders won in a
game that they clearly should have lost. Like, why isn't
this game coming up more? This is a game in
years past we would not be hesitating. Zero hesitation.

Speaker 2 (23:01):
I agree with you about betting the number, but it's
a game I have zero confidence. And because I have
no read on how Spencer Rautler is going to do
and how he's gonna be able to move the ball
and the flip side, I do kind of have a
feeling how Vegas can move the ball. We've talked about
they still have some of their studs offensively that they
can move the ball and get it to and I

(23:22):
know the Saints were unlucky last week. There were times
where Spencer took off with the ball and you're like,
that's the key to this offense. If you just run
the ball, brother, Like you can open up the offense
in so many ways, but eventually he went away from it,
and again they just they're the only team this season.
I believe they got shut out this year, like they're
the first team they not score a single point in
the game this year. So I agree with you. Would

(23:44):
love to be on the same shot. I would love
to feel confident about it, but I just have a
hard time putting my money on this team right now.
I just have zero faith in the Saints' offense this season.

Speaker 1 (23:54):
Just going back to the Broncos and Bengals for a second,
teams that well, Actually, Ivan, I'll ask you to explain this.
I'm not sure. I'm quite sure. I understand the minus
one and a half, minus two, minus two and a half.
He's got the records against the spread at each number.
So I guess we'll talk. Let's talk about a little

(24:16):
bit in the segment when you come on, and we'll
we'll unpack it a little bit. I mean, that's fair.
Going back to the Raiders and Saints for a second,
it just feels like you bet the number, like we're
you buy low, you sell high. The Raiders benefited from
multiple Jags turnovers. The Saints had the JV against the

(24:37):
Packers at prime time, against the team I think is
better than Minnesota, Like the offense is not any better
this week, but should they be dogs and then teams
off a blowout like the Saints sixty five percent against
spread the past twenty years, and it happens more often
than you think, Like we're talking close to one hundred games,
So I don't know. It just feels like if we

(25:00):
had more confidence and we hadn't been getting just hammered
on quirky favorites this year, we wouldn't be hesitating, we'd
be pulling the trigger and we'd be proud of it.

Speaker 2 (25:11):
I probably wouldn't just because there's just other better dogs
this week. It's like there's a couple there's a couple
of games right on and then where I have a
game that we've bet on that I have to have
watch closely. I'm just like, God, damn you, Chad, that's
what you feel like you're trying to do to me
right now. It's like, I don't want to be watching
this game. I don't have big money on this game.
So yeah, you're right, it's probably the right spot. It's

(25:34):
another game, right I'd rather just throw in a teaser.
Give me seven and a half. That's a nice big
number for this Saints team, and that'll be my bet
for this. I just have zero interest to bet this
one straight.

Speaker 1 (25:45):
For the record, I gave myself a lot of Prihnica
Christmas Day gifts in the form of bets like the Ravens,
Texans under fifty one and a half, Live the Charge
minus four, the Broncos plus three and a half. As
confident as I am talking about the Saints, I did

(26:08):
not give myself a Christmas gift of the Saints at
plus one. Yet I'm just saying I did get Carolina
at plus eight and a half against Tampa Bay and
it's now at eight. This was my exact decision. Panthers
started the year one and seven against the spread. It
burned all of us. They're three and four since then.
I think we've been on them all three times that

(26:31):
they've won. We're going back to the well again. Like
I don't think there's a question here. The market just
has not adjusted enough. We talked about sort of the
spread differentials from the last time these two played. It's
only a point and a half difference going back to Tampa.
But come on, let's go Panthers.

Speaker 2 (26:53):
Yeah, it's another game that you know, probably should just
take the over because it's going to be a game
that the Bucks are gonna be able to move the
ball anytime they want with Bucky Irving, with what they
have on the outside, with you know, Baker tends to
bounce back in these spots. Still been on move the ball.
But just even rewatching that game against the Cowboys as

(27:13):
well as Cooper Rush played, they just had guys open
all over the field. Like it just seems like this
Tampa secondary cannot keep up with opposing offenses right now.
And like we've talked about it, this the comfort level
of Carolina with Bryce Young right now is an all
time high, Like they are just so in sync between
the play calling, even Adam feeling like, you know, this

(27:35):
guy basically was sent to Carolina to die two years ago,
and he's just such a stud, especially his trust level
with Bryce Young, Like when he needs to on third
down and a really tight window, that's who he's looking for.
So I'm with you, like I love this Panthers team.
My only fear is just that I'm so in love
with it, Like this is another game where I took
their money line again, Like, I just love this matchup

(27:56):
for this team and the fact that it's still seven
and a half and above since like way, like you
just said, way too much respect to a Bucks team
that we agree is good that they're gonna be able
to score and move the ball. But we know that
the opening of this back door is going to be there.
Even if we're down twenty one or seventeen the first half,
this bet will still not be dead, Like We're still
gonna be alive. So I love the de Stummer is

(28:18):
still so big just because of what we talked about.
Just obviously clear disrespect to this Tampa Bay team. I mean,
just at.

Speaker 1 (28:24):
Carolina Bryce Young two point zero. He's accurate, he's ballsy,
he takes hits in the pocket, but he also gets
out of the pocket, uses his legs. He's been a
revelation and like to his credit, you know, there's only
two weeks left in the season, but Dave Canalis finally
did say he'll be our quarter for the rest of

(28:46):
the season. He had been avoiding saying that, purposely voting
saying that. But yeah, we love we're booking in the seasons.

Speaker 2 (28:56):
If they win these last two, we hit our over,
which would be an insane proposition if they can actually
do it.

Speaker 1 (29:01):
So, look, we were bookending the season. We love the
Panthers at the beginning. We're loving the Panthers at the end.
They're finally the team we thought they would be. Simon.
Kudos to us really for having nowherewithal to stick with
the team, not backing down, not being afraid going back in,
even at the threat of a volt from our listeners,

(29:23):
telling them what's good for them. That's what we do.
Tennessee plus one at Jacksonville.

Speaker 2 (29:29):
This is another game.

Speaker 1 (29:31):
The Titans are now two and thirteen against spread, tied
for the worst records to start the season in the
Super Bowl era per our friend Evan. At this point,
the only question is do you bet the regression or
do you pass? Like I was convinced on Tuesday, we
bet the regression a little bit less, so today I
don't feel as good about it.

Speaker 2 (29:52):
Yeah, it's just another game where you're exactly the right
a normal year, just like the Saints, this would be
an easy bet, easy spot. They made a QB change
and no world was Old Love was gonna put up
thirty points last week Like that really was about how
Mason Ruff is that much better as a quarterback for
this team. So that to me is the biggest difference.
The professionals. We talked Sunday night. They came in heavy

(30:13):
on this one, right, it was two and a half two,
They hit it right away. Now she's sitting now, just
sitting at one, and most pros I talked to they've
hit this number. I feel like in the Action app
kind of backs that up. So yeah, it's it's the
professional side, Like you're right, that's who the pros are
going to be on Tennessee. It's again there's other dogs

(30:33):
I like better, Like do we really like this better
than Denver? Do we like this better than Atlanta? Do
we like it better than Carolina? No? I don't, Right,
So that's the spot we're in here where it's like
me and Chad usually love betting these noble nobody believes
us ugly dogs, but we're just hesitating because they just
like Tennessee's a great example, they have not been hitting
like they should. And there's another spot where the number

(30:56):
is good. We probably should take it, but I just
have no urge to put my money on this type
of team.

Speaker 1 (31:02):
What about teasing it? Like you get through three, you
get to seven, Like, do you tease it with the Saints?

Speaker 2 (31:11):
If it was one and a half, I would right
now I'm looking at just one, so I wouldn't tease it.
Just get into seven because obviously people know pushes. Pushes
are no good and teasers.

Speaker 1 (31:18):
Yeah, uh yeah, I agree. Maybe on Sunday we play
it for a little bit as just a regular bet.
It's not I don't think it's making the contest. We
still appeal people of foxhol exec decision was the Panthers
big balls as the Chargers. Simon says, was Atlanta, we

(31:39):
Owa Foxhall. I'm a little worried we won't find one
because I know we're on the same side as the
wise guys, and a lot of these games coming up
Dallas at Philadelphia eight and a half, it's come down,
But this one makes still makes no sense to me.

(31:59):
You know, we spoke about it on Tuesday and Sunday
night it was seven and a half. We were taking
the Cowboys. It got up to eight that night, so
we were taking seven and a half in eight, sort
of hedging against Jalen Hurts being out. Then the line
blew up. I got up to ten and a half
on Tuesday morning, and there was still no news about

(32:24):
Jalen Hurts. And now it's slowly been coming back down
ten nine and a half nine eight and a half.
Still no news about Jalen Hurts. Cannot find any news.
You haven't heard anything. Fascinating subplot Simon.

Speaker 2 (32:40):
I did message someone that works with the egos and
they're in the note today and they basically just said
that they'll know more info after today's practice, which obviously,
as we're recording right now, that's not happened. The scary
thing is, right now Hurts has a concussion and Kenny
Pickett has ribs, and they basically signed Ian Book after

(33:02):
a practice squad. So right now it's Tanny McKee and
Ian Books as their two quarterbacks. So if that's a scenario, yeah,
obviously me and Chad will just sit in our cowboy
tickets and let that ride if that's what's coming this Sunday.
But yeah, if it's if we get any inkling of Hurts,
and I know the public, we'll know because they'll see

(33:22):
the line move just like we will. That's that's gonna
be the first way we know it's Hurts again. If
it does go right back up to ten, but right now,
like you just said, it's coming down because of so
much unknown. So I like the Eagles in the spot.
This feels like a good spot for their defensive bounce
back at home. They match up really well against this
Cowboys team. Believe the first time they played Eagles one

(33:43):
thirty to eight or thirty two to eight, something like that.
And you know it's just a defense that they are
really good in press coverage of man and man. And
we've seen with CD. If you can have really athletic
young corners like the Eagles do, it's different than you
can utilize his speed, right and we saw last week
like a team like the Bucks, they have no one
liked that and that's why you can force feed a

(34:04):
guy like him. And on top of that, you know
more I read about it like CD's basically playing with
the banged up shoulder, and yeah, he reaggravated it last
week getting tackled on it finished the game, but you
could see that he.

Speaker 1 (34:16):
Didn't play like he played like two plays in the
second half.

Speaker 2 (34:19):
He wasn't great. Fact, you could just see that he
was basically not that he Reinjos, I shouldn't say that
because we don't know, but you could see the discomfort
level have gone up such a level that he didn't
even want to be out there taking hits and they
kind of held him out. So yeah, we expect We
expected a letdown from the Cowboys after that huge emotional
win against that Bucks team, and he expected a bounce
back from an Egles team getting embarrassed and their defense

(34:42):
is getting chewed out all week by Fangio. But with
the unknown of like we just talked about the unknown
of Hurts, I can't confidently give this out to people
and listeners of the show. So yeah, it's it's a
game that I'm I want to be on the Eagles,
but I am hesitant to give it out right now
just because of all the information we don't have on Hurts.

Speaker 1 (34:59):
Yeah, we definitely worry about the Eagles bounce back on defense.
We worry about Jalen all of a sudden being a
go on Sunday. We worry about Cooper Rush his Kryptonize alive.

Speaker 2 (35:11):
It just moving minus seven and a half Eagles, so
it keeps dropping, which again that's not great if you
want to back the Eagles, but if you want to
grab Cowboys. Now, like we talked about, we've already done it.
I mean I'd grabbed eight and a half just in case.

Speaker 1 (35:26):
Yeah, but if you have the eight and you're getting
nervous that Jalen Hurts is going to play and you
want to buy out of the eight and you don't
want to wait, you could also take the seven and
a half, right Like, then you're you're getting to buy
out of your bet. You know, maybe it'll go down,
maybe you get the seven. Who knows, but it's an interesting,

(35:49):
interesting scenario for everybody, very interesting. I also worry that
the Cowboys injuries in a lot of spots are going
to impact them more against a better team, and that
they just played their best game against the Bucks. They
had just found out they weren't in the playoffs. They clearly,
like Mike McCarthy, they were going to go play hard

(36:10):
in prime time. They were hitting like it was a
conference title game. That adds up, especially the following week
when you've sort of come down emotionally a little bit.

Speaker 2 (36:21):
Yeah, we talked too though. That Cowboys game was not
a perfect match for the Cowboys. It really was like
everything they do well offensively, Buck struggled with and then defensively,
we talked about like their second team, the secondary has
really good hands on the Cowboys, and like that affected Baker,
like those windows just weren't there for him. So yeah,
I'm just shocked. As we're doing this live, the number

(36:41):
moved down even more like the Eagles hadn't your practice yet.
So this is clearly professionals trying to get ahead of
it getting on that Cowboys side.

Speaker 1 (36:50):
We're gonna have to run through this again and choose
a foxhil. It might have to be New Orleans. That's
kind of what's in my head right now, because because
I'm looking at the rest of the games. Green Bay
at Minnesota, this is a huge move.

Speaker 2 (37:01):
I thought we were gonna do. I honestly think we
should just do Detroit for Foxhoul.

Speaker 1 (37:06):
I would do Detroit. I love it. I just don't
know are we in.

Speaker 2 (37:08):
The fi maybe fucking bet the Saints, Chad, Please, for
the love of God, are.

Speaker 1 (37:12):
We in the foxhole? Though? We'll get to it. We'll
get to it. Green Bay at Minnesota. I love Green Bay,
you love Minnesota. The wise guys are with me. Yeah,
the wise guy I move numbers, the line is moved.

Speaker 2 (37:23):
They're also with you on the Steelers. That didn't work
out too well for them.

Speaker 1 (37:27):
I didn't bet the Steelers.

Speaker 2 (37:29):
You didn't bet the Chiefs, though I.

Speaker 1 (37:30):
Didn't bet the Chiefs. I didn't bet the Steelers. I
didn't do the side.

Speaker 2 (37:33):
You're on the Steelers. You don't see how that works.

Speaker 1 (37:36):
No, because I was on the total. I lost either way,
but I was on the total.

Speaker 2 (37:42):
You were on the Steelers.

Speaker 1 (37:43):
I was a wishy, washing non opinion.

Speaker 2 (37:45):
I told you it was my biggest bet and you
didn't even touch it. You were just like, I want
nothing to do with.

Speaker 1 (37:48):
It, So I want nothing to do with it.

Speaker 2 (37:50):
Beat on the Steelers.

Speaker 1 (37:51):
I was wrong. Don't take it personally. I was wrong.
You were right. You made a lot of money on
the game. I lost because I was on total.

Speaker 2 (38:00):
But that's a game. The pros were heavy, especially when
the Chris Johnson news came out. They were heavy on
the Steelers, and I just I don't know, I get
where people come from this Packers team, but especially now.
I told you, now the numbers move even more, like
I'm getting a plus number on the Vikings.

Speaker 4 (38:14):
Now.

Speaker 1 (38:15):
Yeah, well, I was gonna say, like the number is
moved from Packers plus one and a half to now
minus one, and it's been moving aggressively over the last
forty eight hours. I did bet the Packers' money line
on Christmas Day. They were still slight dogs at the time.
I guess might take if we're talking about like comps, right,
why why do I like the Packers more than the Vikings.

(38:40):
Why would I feel more comfortable betting the Packers than
I would say the Steelers. I just think the Packers
are a really physical team, and we know their identity
is run the ball with Josh Jacobs, limit turnovers, control
the clock, Jordan Love makes the throws at the right

(39:01):
time in the right situation, And I feel like Minnesota
you're saying, I feel like Minnesota consistently is getting lucky
and lives and dies by Sam Darnold being able to
evade in the pocket and then throw over the top
of coverage that is breaking down, or Kevin O'Connell puts

(39:24):
him in a great spot and he can throw a
rope across the field from the opposite hash on like
second to twelve after another holding penalty or ineligible player
downfield and sort of keep the chains moving. But that
isn't sustainable to me. And then you look at their

(39:46):
wins during their win streak. Close games that just as
easily could have been lost is against the Bears, the Cardinals, Seattle,
and then they were tied with Atlanta in the f
quarter before Atlanta's turnovers completely put them out of the game.
To me, green Bay has dominated in their past five games,

(40:08):
no close games to inferior competition and a one field
goal that's not in the past five games.

Speaker 2 (40:17):
Oh okay, okay, you got me there, You got me there.

Speaker 1 (40:20):
Their one loss is a field goal to Detroit.

Speaker 2 (40:23):
So yeah, I don't know.

Speaker 1 (40:25):
I just feel better about you know, you can see
teams getting better. I don't think Minnesota is necessarily getting better.
I think they've played to the best of their ability
and had things go well their way.

Speaker 2 (40:36):
Can't refute any of that we've talked about. I think
they've been really lucky. But I also think that they
have the coach of the year and you know, a
quarterback that is living up to the moment. Like I told,
we talked about like as much as most said they've
been lucky, he's making big time throws and really really
intense tight situations down here. Like you said, they've been

(40:56):
playing all season above their talent level. They have a
nameless defense, they have Sam Darnold as their quarterback, and
they are whatever thirteen in two at this point. So
my whole issue is that they are a team that
when it's tight, they have one of the best teams
in all football. And on the flip side with Green Bay, again,
nothing against Jordan Love, but when he's played against good teams,
he's not been great in those type moments. And they

(41:18):
have not played that many great teams this year, right,
Like you just went through their whole schedule other than Detroit,
They've had a cake walk these last couple of weeks.
Like this, to me is a true test for their defense,
which I don't think is that good. Even coming to
the year I said, I don't care they made a
coaching change to their defense. I don't think they had
have the right pieces to it. So we're not doing

(41:39):
the Saints. It's please stop trying to do the Saints. Yeah,
I just look at this as it's just a Green
Bay team that the public is gonna love, everyone's all
into and I'm just I'm kind of dug in here
on the disrespect for this Vikings team, And like the
number that now the numbers flipped, it's making even more confident.
It's like even even the public and now it feels
like it on with the professionals on the screen Bay side,

(42:02):
just a ton of love for this team that you know,
I just don't think they they have been tested, right,
they were testing that Detroit game. But even at Detroit game,
they should have won that right then, we both agree
on that that they were felt like the better team
against Detroit, but they just were not clutch at the
end of the game, like they gave away the game.
It kind of gave the opportunity to Detroit to win that.
So that to meet you id just my fear here

(42:24):
is that Minnesota, when it's close to the end, they're
going to steal this one.

Speaker 4 (42:29):
All right.

Speaker 1 (42:30):
You know, I think that these will be two good
games for Scoots Roulette. I can't wait to be on
the opposite sides of it. We haven't had a we
haven't had a Oh that's a good one.

Speaker 2 (42:45):
Do that. Yeah, it's fun.

Speaker 1 (42:46):
Yeah, we haven't had a game where we are head
to head all season. I think on Christmas, you're on
the Steelers guy, Come on, I was heartbroken.

Speaker 2 (43:01):
I hope brought my action app Look Christmas morning, See
if Chad was me back? I mean nope, No, it
wasn't there. No support.

Speaker 1 (43:07):
I couldn't get there. But because I'm too afraid of
my time.

Speaker 2 (43:10):
I was there for you on the Bills last week.
You couldn't be there for him the Chiefs this week.

Speaker 1 (43:13):
I've been there with you on so many things. We
got there with it. How many times have we bet
the fucking Jets this year?

Speaker 2 (43:20):
So we love it.

Speaker 1 (43:21):
We love it so many times. But we haven't been
head to head on a game happening normally. What's been
happening is like one of us will have an opinion
and the other one will have a strong opinion and
we will put that game. That's one of ours. This year,
we are head to head on Minnesota and Green Bay.
I like it. Like it a lot, Atlanta, Washington, this

(43:44):
was your Simon says three factors. Can you remind people
what your three factors were?

Speaker 2 (43:52):
I cannot.

Speaker 1 (43:54):
You like what you saw from Penix makes sense. We
like fading the commanders off miracle Win. Oh yeah, we
don't think Washington's defense is very good.

Speaker 2 (44:05):
I agree with all that. So yeah, Simon on Tuesday
was spot on. But I also just think, like the
more I broke down the film on Penix, that I
had underrated him a little.

Speaker 4 (44:14):
Bit, right.

Speaker 2 (44:14):
I think I was a little too negative on him
on the Sunday Show, and you were ahead of it, right,
I think you said take it. Whatever it was was
a five or five and a half Atlanta when it opened. Yeah, yeah,
way too much respect for this Washington team. And only
my only real hesitation was, well, it is a rookie
and a second start going on the road, playing in
a primetime game like that is a tough spot to
be in. But as you quickly mentioned to me, this

(44:36):
is not your regular rookie. This is a guy who's
been played a lot of years in college, played in
some really big games in college football, and has lived
up to those moments in college. So that does translate
to the NFL. Like we've seen these quarterbacks who have
played in big time games. I mean, the one that
really stood out to me was Joe Burrow, right, like
he had all the hype in the world coming to LSU,
and you saw immediately this guy had the confidence because

(44:57):
he had played in such big time games. So this
one another one that's just all about the number, right,
and another game where I swore this would be three
today just because I did think that the professionals coming
heavy on this one. It's not there, Like there's still
some four and a halfs popping out there that you
can still get. So yeah, not a slam dunk I
thought it was gonna be. But yeah, I love this matchup,

(45:19):
love this number for this team, and just feels like
a game that they could steal and win outright, Like
it's a washing team that's just going to be inflated,
like we talked about after last week, and I still
think the number is just way too high, Like you're
still getting a great value on this number with this team.
And the achilles heel for that Falcons team was they
had no pass rush. They've kind of had to turn
around the later half of the season, right, They've gotten

(45:40):
better again after the quarterback, whether that scheme or just
kind of figuring out the rhythm between the defenders because
it was a new D line, right and they kind
of had to figure out to play play with each other.
So yeah, this is Atlanta team. It might be a
spark they needed, right, that QB change that could be
something they needed now the books haven't caught up to
it because they don't want to adjust to this new
new quarterback situation. So yeah, I like it. I think

(46:03):
we're getting ahead of it. I think we're beating the
book here on this one.

Speaker 1 (46:06):
Yeah. I like it too. And if we can still
get to four and a half in the contest, I
love it. The thing is, we're not going to get
three and a half. We haven't looked at the contest
lines yet. It hasn't gone below four. So we're gonna
get to four and a half. Last game of the week,
Detroit visiting San Francisco, We're going into the foxhole. This
is gonna be it, you know me, regardless of what's
going on.

Speaker 2 (46:26):
I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I
commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy.

Speaker 1 (46:31):
Detroit got down to three yesterday. I betted at three.
I'm assuming you bettered at three.

Speaker 2 (46:36):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (46:37):
My last Christmas Day gift, it was the last thing
in my stocking. It's gone back up to three and
a half. It's probably what the contest line is going
to be. I guess I don't care that much.

Speaker 4 (46:48):
I'm so freaking proudy man. That's a way to show up.
You're talking about pressure, living pressure. That's what we freaking thrive.
You did it again, you win.

Speaker 1 (46:57):
Detroit wants to go in and dominate, and I think
San Francisco is trying to figure out what they're going
to do next year.

Speaker 2 (47:03):
Yeah, I told you. It was all really to me
about what Dan Campbell was gonna say. And if he
came out and was honest and said, yeah, we're gonna
rest guys, I would probably agree with the professionals who
are betting this forty nine ers team and be like, Okay,
now I get why they're hammering this forty nine Ers side.
It went the other way. Campbell is basically saying like, no,
we're not that type of team. I'm having everyone play.

(47:23):
We plan on going up there and dominating and winning
in San Francisco.

Speaker 4 (47:27):
So we're road warriors, all right, We're in rare air
right now. All right, we were all supposed to be
here together. Man, we're testing for this, just staying the dwars.

Speaker 2 (47:35):
This forty nine ers team still feels like they're getting
respect from the books from last year and every week,
even last week, right they were. I think they opened
as a two and a half point dog and they
closed as a one and a half point favorite.

Speaker 1 (47:48):
So it makes no sense.

Speaker 2 (47:49):
Yeah, but it's been like that all year that that people, mainly.

Speaker 1 (47:53):
The Jets, them in the Jets the whole freaking season.

Speaker 2 (47:56):
Yeah, it's true, though, they just can't help themselves. And
that was very glaring, Like you just said, the fact
that this got down to three, like that's some really
really smart money moving that to three like that. Again,
we talk all the time. It's not that they hit
every book. They might hit one or two books, and
every book follows off of that movement. That's how respected

(48:18):
that money was that came in. As soon as that
Dan Campbell interview happened, it went right back up. So
I think the books don't know what to do with it.
They're they're they're they're kind of in between. And you know,
obviously three was a gift. I'm glad we both got it.
But as long as this is below six, I think
we're getting a great number. Like That's why, again, I
don't know what I'm missing here. I have this at

(48:40):
such a higher game because the only fear with the
tra erright now is going up against good offenses that
can move the ball on them. Right, That's the fear
is they could they can be back toward by teams
now because of the struggling defense they have. But this
ain't that, Like, this is not that type of matchup.
And you know we've seen golf. We always joked about
him outdoors. That hasn't matter yet this year this season either,

(49:01):
like they've been so dominant because of that run game
that sets up everything through the pass game. That yeah,
like Gibbs, this matchup for him is great. They have
I don't want to say Fred Warner slow, but he's
got He's been playing with major injuries and we've seen
their linebackers have struggled getting on the outside. That's what
they want to do with Gibbs, Like that's just such,
that's literally what they want to do with him setting

(49:22):
up and especially signing up the pass. So uh, yeah,
this this is another game just like last week. I'm
hoping we don't scare it off of because you know
we talked about last week aainst the Bears. It was
basically ninety five percent of the tickets, ninety five percent
of the money was on this this team and the Lions,
and it went from seven to six and a half
so we were like, what's going on here? I mean

(49:43):
they won by what double digits? So I feel like
it's the same thing here. They're trying to scare us off.
At Chad, we're in the foxhole. We will not be scared.

Speaker 1 (49:50):
Yeah, right now we're eighty seven percent of the tickets,
ninety six percent of money on the Lions. Yeah, I
will not be afraid. This is the year we've been
seeing it. There's a couple games that we like that
our road favorites. We're gonna have to decide are they
both gonna make it in We're talking about the charters

(50:10):
and the niners. You know, right now, I think they do.
If we're looking at the list, if we're taking one
of them out, it's going to be probably be for
the Saints. So it's a very good chance that we
end up with two road favorites in the contest. It's
kind of year it's been. Yeah, how to make adjustments
even if it's in week seventeen. Simon, can you name

(50:30):
the best ticketing app in the United States?

Speaker 2 (50:33):
Game Time?

Speaker 1 (50:34):
That's right, it's our beloved sponsor, game Time. I have
said it a thousand times and I have lived it.
I've backed it up. The greatest experiences I have with
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(50:56):
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get into some Yukon women's hoops games talking less than

(51:19):
thirty five bucks, and that's one of the best teams
in the history of college basketball. My favorite part about
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(51:40):
apply again. Create an account, redeem code favri test for
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Game Time? Each week we give out a two team
money line underdog parlay I bet three six y five
boosts the odds and highlights it on their site all

(52:01):
weekend under both game pages. And remember both games are
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So if you want to bet this, bet it at
bet three sixty five. This week's boosted parlay after a
spirited debate in the chat during the show, which is

(52:23):
what you might have heard when Simon said, no, we
can't do the Saints. We're going with Carolina as an
eight eight and a half point dog in Atlanta. All
NFC South boosted parlay. Find the boost under either the
Broncos or Falcons game pages on bet three six five.
Okay our money line underdog Round Robin.

Speaker 4 (52:46):
There will come up Heayday, hallelu yo, wanna pay day?

Speaker 2 (52:50):
There will come up.

Speaker 1 (52:51):
Payday some day.

Speaker 2 (52:52):
Some day there will come up Heayday.

Speaker 1 (52:55):
Halla lou yo, wanna payday?

Speaker 2 (52:58):
I will come up.

Speaker 1 (52:59):
Pay day some Denver, Atlanta, Carolina, Minnesota. I know you
want to put Minnesota in there.

Speaker 2 (53:09):
I do New Orleans? Do you want to go New Orleans?
Or should we go upside? I mean it pains me
to say this should we go upside of Dallas in
case Hurts is out and you know they're might be
playing Iam booked like this is. I'm just trying to
try to find big value. Here is some good big dogs.

Speaker 1 (53:28):
Whatever you want to do, so, I mean, you clearly
don't want to do you clearly don't want to do
New Orleans.

Speaker 2 (53:36):
I mean they're plus one hundred Dallas is plus two seventy.

Speaker 1 (53:40):
Yeah, I get that, but we don't like New Orleans.
We know that there's not going to be anywhere in
the field, so we know what we're getting into. It's
like that scene in Airplane, you know a movie that
only people in my age remember, where there's like a
debate between two newscasters and he's like Shane, I they
bought their ticket, they knew what they were getting into.

(54:02):
I say, let them crash. That's kind of what we're
doing when we bet on New Orleans.

Speaker 2 (54:08):
All right, we could do the Orleans and you love it. Yeah,
give one the chat.

Speaker 1 (54:12):
Yeah, g e A u X go Saints, let's do it.
Who are your biggest bets right now? Buddy?

Speaker 2 (54:22):
Uh? I mean, honestly, I've been I've been pretty lacking
just because of the holiday I would say Detroit. I
went pretty heavy on the minus three. Even at minus
three and a half, I've honestly betted up. I'm feeling
very chalky with that one. Panthers, as you know, eight
eight and a half, whatever I could get my hands on,

(54:43):
I was betting that. Now that we're here, I feel
like I'm gonna be heavy on teachers this week. Like Eagles,
taking the Eagles down, taking Buffalo down, taking the Colts down.
I really like all those favorites just just to win
those games. And it just feels like that kind of
week hit that point. I mean, I haven't already talked
about it. Basically, dogs are only when to outright twenty

(55:03):
five percent, maybe even less right now since it was
like week eight or seven. So it's been brutal, brutal
if you're a dog better, But if you're someone who
loves doing teasers, they've been hitting like the chalk has
just been hitting. So not as heavy on the dogs
this week as I usually am. Been leading more towards
the favorites in Week seventeen.

Speaker 1 (55:21):
All right, before we get to evan reminder, if you're
participating in the favorites, pick them contest your picks must
be in by one pm on Saturday, not Sunday. All
Saturday games are in the contest this week. Everybody must
make picks by one pm on Saturday. Get those picks
in one pm Saturday, not Sunday. For Week seventeen, we've

(55:44):
mentioned him so much, it's time to finally have him
on the show. Evan Abrams take us through it.

Speaker 3 (55:51):
The last word with Evan Abrams.

Speaker 5 (55:55):
We're finished talking, well, chaed I'm still waiting to try
to fait you're out exactly what we were discussing earlier,
but I can give you some information.

Speaker 1 (56:04):
Basically, what I wanted to know was are dogs of
plus two or plus two and a half covering as
frequently this season as dogs of plus three or three
and a half, because that is becoming so much more
of a key number. And I want to know if
we're shooting ourselves in the foot by not considering games

(56:24):
that get to two and a half because we don't
want to play anything below three, and that might not
be the right answer anymore.

Speaker 2 (56:32):
Got it.

Speaker 5 (56:33):
I looked up the favorites part, so I'll just invert
it so it looks like teams to close plus two
and plus two and a half are sixteen and nineteen
against the spread. Times to close plus three and plus
three and a half. Here's some fun math, twenty five
thirty one and three against the spread.

Speaker 1 (56:56):
Wow, so both are loser numbers.

Speaker 5 (56:59):
Both are losing numbers right now. The biggest the thing
I thought was interesting, and I did it from a
favorites point of view, misunderstanding a little bit, but it
looks like a minus two for favorites. Minus three and
minus three and a half have been above five hundred.
The only number below five hundred has been minus two
and a half, which Simon seems to talk about all
the time. But it has been a loser from the

(57:19):
favorites point of view this year eleven and fourteen.

Speaker 1 (57:22):
Wait, but you just said favorites.

Speaker 5 (57:24):
So everything I gave you was underdogs, right.

Speaker 1 (57:27):
But if minus two and a half is a.

Speaker 5 (57:29):
Minus two, went eight and two against the spread this year,
So teams to close minus two eight to two ats
minus two and a half eleven and fourteen, I.

Speaker 1 (57:40):
Say, so you add them up. It's still two to
two and a half is a loser for the dogs.
But two has been a winner.

Speaker 5 (57:46):
Yeah, correct for obviously a small sample size in a
single season, so interesting.

Speaker 1 (57:51):
Okay, all right, let's.

Speaker 2 (57:52):
Keep rolling here.

Speaker 5 (57:53):
So picking your games this week to try to give
you a little bit of a boost some you know,
confidence was interesting looking at the scripts from Tuesday, but
I think I did alright here. So we're gonna start
with Denver. So you mentioned the great bon Nick stat
earlier that Raybond gave you. I got one more for you.
So Cincinnati's defense are sacking opponent qbs about two point
eight percent, which is bottom third of the league this year.

(58:16):
Bon Nicks eight to no ats versus defenses with an
opposing SAP percentage of four percent or less. He is
two and four ats with a number above that four
percent with a little more pressure.

Speaker 2 (58:27):
So great.

Speaker 5 (58:30):
Yeah, it just rolls exactly into it.

Speaker 2 (58:32):
I thought, I thought that was perfect. So that worked
out well, That worked out well.

Speaker 1 (58:35):
Dimond's leaning in. He feels so good about that.

Speaker 2 (58:38):
I honestly hammer Denver.

Speaker 1 (58:40):
Yeah, we need we need to bet on a dog,
all right.

Speaker 2 (58:47):
This one was a little bit more tough.

Speaker 5 (58:49):
So you like the Saints this week. I looked up
the stat and then I'll throw two trends at you,
which kind of.

Speaker 1 (58:54):
Fall right in line.

Speaker 5 (58:55):
But you asked if like the Raiders should be favorites
in this game as kind of like a question, here's
a great one. So the Raiders are coming off a
game where they are where they broke a ten game
straight up losing streak. They would be the first team
since December of nineteen sixty eight to be favored in
a game after breaking a ten plus game straight up
losing streak within the same season. So in this situation,

(59:17):
when the team out of nowhere wins a game shockingly,
they usually just fall back to where they are. They
don't end up as a road favorite in this situation,
which is exactly what the Raiders are sitting in. So
maybe the line is wrong. And then you've kind of
mentioned this before. So teams after getting shut out thirty
and fifteen against the spread a sixty seven percent last decade,
and then teams with a win percentage below forty percent

(59:38):
who just lost by thirty plus ninety and sixty six
fifty eight percent since two thousand and three. So yeah,
like the.

Speaker 2 (59:44):
Saints are the right historical side here.

Speaker 5 (59:48):
You're just picking two garbage cans, you know, flying down
the river and hoping that one of them goes faster
than the other, uh okay, last one, Bryce Young, I
looked into this because I think we all kind of
believe what you guys have been preaching. So here's his improvement.
So he's been using his legs lately in his first
three starts, and remember Owen three ats and that eight

(01:00:10):
scrambles thirty four yards Week nine on, which has been
this hot streak for him, twenty two scrambles, one hundred
and ninety yards and three touchdowns. He's also been much
more accurate, especially downfield. So his first three starts he
had a negative completion percentage over expected. Now that is
based off depth of throw, which is how the stack
gets correlated. That was second worst in the NFL in

(01:00:32):
the first eight weeks. Week nine on, he's now top
of the league in that stat, to the top half
of the league in that stat. And then finally, his
catchable ball percentage, which just gives the offense more of
a chance, is up almost five full percentage points and
his turnover worthy throws down two point six percent between
those two periods. So, honestly, Bryce Young playing better and

(01:00:54):
it's showing up in the stats because Carolina now six
to one ATS in the last seven games. Best Moor
in the NFL over that span, and they started the
year zero and three ats. So sometimes quarterback play doesn't
exactly show up in the results. It's front and center here, guys.

Speaker 1 (01:01:09):
You know who else has a high catchable ball percentage?
Tommy John Simon. I'm feeling better and better. I can't
wait to put the Saints in our top five. As
a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three
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(01:01:29):
deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to
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(01:01:49):
or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
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Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I will return
with our next step, So do the favorites. On the
Action Network you two page Sunday night, seven thirty pm
Eastern to recap week seventeen. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods,
wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe me with

(01:02:10):
five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift
until next time. I Love you.

Speaker 3 (01:02:23):
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Speaker 1 (01:03:38):
When all hope is lost, all this left is relief.

Speaker 2 (01:03:43):
Let's play roulette.