November 20, 2022 • 39 mins
Our Reaction to President Trump's 2024 Announcement and Political Wonk Ryan Girdusky with His Midterm Postmortem Finale.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Thinking about the future of the country. So are we
candidates Coverage and analysis you won't get anywhere else. Let's
go Donald Trump, as he told you he would do
last week on this program, officially announcing that he's going
to run for president in twenty twenty four. And we
(00:20):
will go ahead and play the audio of that official
announcement last night from Marlago. Here is what it sounded like.
In order to make America great and glorious again, I
am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States.
All right, So, Buck, I watched the entire speech as
(00:41):
it were. They carried much of it live on Fox
News during Sean Hannity's show. They cut in and out
a couple of times to allow people to react. I
guess what maybe stood out the most to me about
the entire address. It was very subdued, relatively speaking for
Donald Trump. Up felt also as a result, very presidential.
(01:04):
And he played a lot of the greatest hits from
his twenty sixteen campaign as a part of this announcement.
And also I think one reason why it was relatively
subdued was because I guess it was on Thursday, or
was it Wednesday night? I can't even remember when Trump
attacked Glenn Junkin, when he attacked Ron de Santis, when
(01:28):
he went after a lot of different people with all
of those statements. I think that that was generally not
received very well. And so the argument is out there,
and I think he followed basically what we said on
this program. Hey, it's got to be a forward looking campaign.
The thing that he said that I was most responsive
(01:49):
to in a positive direction, And I think he got
this one hundred percent correct, and I wish more Republicans
would be saying it. He said one of the first
things that he would do when he came into office
is to bring back everybody who lost their jobs in
the military over the COVID shot requirements. He would end
all Biden vaccine mandates, and he would give back pay
(02:12):
to all of those soldiers who lost their jobs over
the COVID shot. Thank god, somebody is finally saying that.
That's what jumped out the most to me about the
entire address. What about you, Buck, What stood out to
you to anything surprise you? How would you assess the
overall announcement itself? So much interesting stuff happening here when
(02:34):
you get in this early this far ahead of anyone
else who may run. And keep in mind there will
be people who may decide to run who have no
chance at all, but they use it as a chance
to get their name out there and sell books. You know,
somebody who's kind of more of a libertarian may run
as a Republican or whatever. We've seen that in the past,
distinct possibility of that, So you're likely to see some
(02:58):
names enter it just be because they'll be press associated
with that in the months ahead. Trump is in super
early and this is going to create I think some
advantages and some challenges. One thing that does seem that
that's I think stuck out to everybody last night, and
I watched the whole thing live too, was that Trump
(03:21):
was very clearly trying to take a common presidential tone throughout.
It wasn't you know, rock'em sock'em Trump in WWE mode.
You know, it was definitely a intentionally presidential tone. I
think the decision not to talk or not to focus
(03:42):
on on twenty twenty is the right one. I don't
I don't think anybody should have any confusion about that
from a pure tactical perspective, never mind anything else. That's
not going to work, and we're gonna have our friend
a Ryan ger Dusky joining us in the second or
today the program, who is a political consultant. All he
(04:03):
does is look at the polling, the exit polling, the data,
the numbers, the races, and will break down some of
the good, the bad, and the ugly from this election.
There was some good which you want to focus on
as well. It is in fact possible that today during
the show, we may I think be able to officially
call the House. I mean it's basically the House's GOP
(04:25):
now right, but it hasn't been official official called yet.
But I look, I think that Trump we're two years
out from the election, and there's going to be not
only an evolution of Trump in his campaign that will occur.
That's that's obvious. There's also going to be events that
will conspire to change around whatever plans are currently made,
(04:48):
whatever strategy is currently in place. So I think we
just follow this at every step, in every stage, and
it's it's good that there will be in my mind
at least more. The de facto leader of the Republican
Party came out last night and said, I am now
the you know, for right now he is the official
leader of the Republican Party. I don't think anyone would
(05:10):
really dispute that, as he is the only person who
has come out in favor of or come out officially running.
So we got to see, man, I mean, I want
to see how he does in these first six months.
The guy pulled off something of a political miracle, it
seems in twenty sixteen. He was a really great president
when he was in office in so many ways, accomplished
(05:32):
so many things. But the game has changed a lot,
the world has changed a lot. We've got to see
how it all stacks up. So I'm enthusiastic. I mean,
I'm happy that this is this is the trajectory right
now for the GOP to get to get serious about
winning after what just happened. Because it was a body blow.
We all know it should have been better than what
(05:52):
it was in the mid terms. Nobody was more ticked
off by the way than Clay and I. I mean,
we're sitting here, we're furious for days about how this thing.
But now we understand how it went that way. And
I think that Trump may be able to galvanize Republicans
to understand not only what's bad about Biden, but what
could be so much better under a Republican administration. The
(06:15):
thing that I would say is the announcement is unprecedented
to have someone announced to run for president, effectively fourteen
months until we actually have the first primary, which in
theory would be I still think it's going to be Iowa,
although how exactly that's going to shake out remains to
(06:36):
be seen because Democrats are saying Iowa isn't representative enough.
I think they may change their calendar. We'll see what
Republicans end up doing. But for Trump to be in
fourteen months before anyone out there listening to us right
now can have any official say in terms of who
they would support is a long time. And what we
(06:57):
don't know is what's going to happen with all these investigations.
And I think it's smart of Trump to be in
if he is going to be indicted, because now the storyline,
I think it's hard to avoid this being the storyline
is the chief political rival who has announced that he
is going to be running against Joe Biden, is being
(07:19):
investigated by the Department of Justice of Joe Biden. So
if he is indicted, now it's very easy for Trump
to say, this is a politically motivated indictment. But the
thing I wonder, and this circles back around to a
conversation we were having earlier this week. Democrats are desperate
for Donald Trump to be the nominee. Every Democrat out there,
(07:41):
if you say you get to pick a Republican, they
want to run against Donald Trump. Now. They were excited
for him to be the nominee in twenty sixteen, and
he beat him, But their entire party is basically defined
by saying Trump is Hitler. So my point on this is,
I think Trump is strength if they indict him. So
(08:03):
there's this idea out there, and I want you to
think about it a little bit counterintuitively, that Democrats are
trying to knock Trump out by investigating him at Mara Lago,
by rating with the FBI, I would actually argue the
opposite might be true, that they are trying to ensure
that he is the nominee. And I think one of
the things you could do that would most strengthen Trump
(08:24):
buck is actually indict him, because I think in base
rallies around him when the indictment happens. Well, right, if
we were getting this out a little bit. I see that.
But the indictment of Trump, which we believe would focus
on mishandling of classified and obstruction of government, right there
is Look it's gonna be if they bring that charge,
(08:46):
and can we just we're going down the rabbit hole here,
we're taking we're taking a drive through crazy town. So
everyone needs to understand that. Remember, the media spent three years.
I mean the fourth year was really more COVID obviously
than Russia collusion. But for three years, I mean, people
built huge careers and huge followings on the massive and
obvious lie that Donald Trump had worked with Putin to
(09:10):
steal the election. So this is also why I understand
people that say, well, you know, the twenty twenty election
steal conversation came after the twenty sixteen election steel conversation,
which it's completely fair to point that out. That is true.
But they're out of their minds, is my point. Like
like the things that you and I consider your clay
and say, well that's totally unreasonable. Wow exactly. I mean,
(09:32):
this is a party that just voted voted strongly for
John Feederman, as we know in Pennsylvania. Here's the thing.
If they bring the charge it would be. Let's say
they bring a federal federal indictment against Donald Trump, It'll
be in a d DC Circuit court, right, That's where
it's going to happen. That's where the charge will. I
don't know, do you think. I mean, I wouldn't be
in Florida. I don't know how that exactly would work.
(09:53):
I think it would be in in DC. And if
you get a DC jury, it's gonna be a Trump
hating jury of MSNBC watching libs. And if you tell
them you know, this guy should probably serve three or
four months in prison, I think they would go for it. Yeah,
there's there's no presidential protection, there's no pardon, there's nothing
(10:15):
for him. So you know, you're saying if they indict him,
the optics strengthen him. I say that's true. But if
they indict him, if they do that, wouldn't they also
try to send him to night A. Look, they're not
gonna to get him fron ten years or something crazy,
but wouldn't they try to make him serve some jail time?
I think they would. The problem is I don't think
(10:36):
that they would be able to get the entire court
proceeding done before election day. So this is I mean again,
this is why it's so crazy to think about. So
if they indicted him now, it would take months before
any kind of actual trial could take place. Any appeal
would take forever. Right, I think we would be voting
(10:58):
for president before there was a resolution to whatever charges
might be brought against Trump because I think based on
the Special Master hearing and everything else, it's unlikely they
could bring any charges until the spring of twenty three. Now,
so if they bring him in the spring of twenty three, buck,
he could already be the nominee. You know, by March
(11:19):
of twenty four will probably know who the Republican nominee is.
But but then we get back to you, also, does
it rally the Trump? First of all, are they even
going to bring charges? This is still a big I
know you think they will. Ye, we'll see. But if
they bring charges, it certainly goes to the narrative of
the swamp the apparatus. Yeah, going after Trump. However, there
(11:43):
is this lesson we have learned from the swing states.
We overperformed in red states and in blue states. This
is the part of it. That's the reason. Just so
I want to ever understand this, This is really important.
The reason we have a House majority now. The reason
is Florida, which just ran the table. New York, which,
(12:07):
while we didn't win the governor's race, won a bunch
of down ticket congressional ballots seats that were real critical.
I think four of them in Long Island alone really important.
And California, so we overperformed, and there's other states you
could throw into the mix there too. So we know
how to get Republican voters fired up in blue states
(12:28):
right now, and we know certainly how to get Republican
voters in the red states fired up. But to win
the presidency, you gotta get it's we all know that
it's going to be at least you know, given the
political trajectory that we've seen for the last couple of years,
it's going to be the same states that are an
issue right now. You may throw one or two. You know,
Virginia might be in play, right I mean, there's some
(12:48):
things that could switch a little bit. And Clay an
indicted presidential candidate, how does that play out, not to
our friends, not to our audience, to the independence will
determine Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin. I don't know
that's part of this. I don't I think we'll pretend
(13:09):
to know. I think it damages Trump immensely, But that's
where I think their play is. I think they know
that it strengthens him with the Republican base, likely gets
him the nomination, but wounds him to such an extent
that he's unlikely to be able to win in those
toss up states. I think that's their play. I think
that's where they're headed. I mean that would be that.
(13:30):
I think the conventional wisdom would be indicted Trump scares
away independence and squishy Republican college educated white voters, and
you get twenty twenty two in the swing states all
over again. And that's the play that they'd be making. Yeah,
no doubt. And so I think it's going to be
fascinating to see exactly how all of that shakes out.
Before all is said and done, we'll continue to break
(13:52):
this down. Also, we'll continue to let you guys react
one two eight two two eight eight two. You can
react to what Trump said also the election. We're continuing
to let people react to that as well. In the meantime,
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months out from the actual primary season voting starting. Of course,
(15:16):
we're still two years away from the twenty twenty four
presidential election, which we told you on this show would
effectively start as soon as the mid terms were over.
So I wonder Buck, big picture here. If you are
going to challenge Trump, Let's say you are Ron de Santis.
(15:37):
Let's say you are Glenn Junkin. Let's say you are
Mike Pompeo or even Mike Pence, and you are out
there and you are thinking, Hey, I'm going to throw
my hat in the ring, because Buck, as you mentioned,
a lot of people run with the knowledge that it's
highly unlikely that they would ever be the nomination. But
it helps their speaking fees. It makes them widely well
(15:59):
known to tens of millions of people that otherwise wouldn't
have known them. When they get to stand on the stage.
It may also help them if there's a particular issue
that you are really focused on that you think is
not getting enough attention from the Republican Party, it can
help to alter the conversation or put your issue on
the stage. Right, So there are many reasons why people
(16:20):
could announce what's the timeframe on them? Now? Because that's
the other thing I was thinking in the back of
my head as we watch Trump. Now. I don't actually
know anything about professional boxing and reality, but I have
seen all the Rocky movies, so I do know that
you gotta train, and you gotta you know, have some
some bouts before the big bout. You know, you gotta
(16:41):
make sure you're in fighting form. Also, The Fighter, I thought,
with Mark Mark Wahlberg, was a very great boxing movie.
Cinderella Man also pretty good. I like The Fighter a
little bit more, but there's a lot there's some great
boxing movies. Anyway. The primary process is exactly that. I mean,
you actually don't want someone you know who you know
who thought she was going to breeze through a primary
(17:02):
and every everybody should just get out of the way.
Hillary Clinton, I think, you know Hubris Hubris in two
thousand and eight was one of her many downfalls. And
I think that in this in this situation, we're likely
to see some people who were going to come forward
and if they're in a primary with Trump. Look. One
of the more phenomenal things about the initial Trump rise
(17:24):
was the way that he was able to in a
very crowded field with some big name Republicans who are
are still you know, very much Ted Cruz and Marc
Rubio and people that are still very much in the
game today and in significant ways. But he was able
to get himself ahead of that pack. And I think
that was that was honing the skill, you know, that
(17:45):
was actually sharpening the axe to go out there and
chop down the trees faster like. It was actually a
process that was worthwhile for him. So I don't think
that anybody should think that a primary is the equivalent
of some kind of GOP civil war. It's gonna take
the that wasn't the case in twenty sixteen, and that
was a bruising primary. So if we go in that direction,
(18:07):
recent history tells us Okay, let's see how Let's see
how that shakes out, and see where the politics are
for the country, see where the mood of the country
is at that moment in time when people will get
in Look, I haven't. I was actually surprised to hear this,
and I will share this. I've heard people that would
(18:28):
would be in a position to know they think very
seriously that Glenn youngcan's going to get in Yeah, which
I you know, everyone's so focused on to Sandus now.
To a lot of our audience, I'm sure, especially people
that are very excited for Trump, they're like, well, that's
a okay, but it's it's somebody who's the guy's worth
a couple of hundred million dollars. He's a governor of Virginia.
You know, he may throw his hat in the ring.
(18:50):
And I think that, you know, even if you just
view them as sparring partners for Trump, at some level,
it's a good thing. Yeah, I do not think that
a coronation. From the very beginning, he's really to anyone's
bet if it was part including Trump, I think you
want him to be you know, to be out there
sparring and to be making the case. And he needs
to be doing that because I think everyone's seen this.
(19:12):
It is a savvier, more ruthless Democrat machine now than
it was in twenty sixteen. They have figured out some tricks.
They have something. They will not allow Trump to get
all the free advertising he did before. They will not
allow him to leverage their toys, their social media platforms
against him. So there has to be an evolution that
(19:35):
he would take in this process in order to bring
us the victory that we so desire in twenty twenty four.
I think Trump believes Glenn Yunkin is going to get
in the race, which is why he attacked him. You know,
we everybody focused on the DeSantis attack, but he also
went after Glenn Yunkin. And he's getting in, Like I
would be surprised at this point, Clay, I can't. I
(19:57):
can't reveal this worst but I've I've been told that
he's getting in. Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me at all.
I mean, I think it's going to be de Santis.
I think it's gonna be Glenn Yunkin. I think I
mentioned him yesterday talking about the fact that I thought
he was going to run and Trump. And remember to
your point on twenty sixteen, do you remember who in
the Republican Party had all the money and all of
(20:17):
the organization and everybody was like, this is the guy
are you talking about? Jeb exclamation Jeb exclamation point. Jeb
exclamation Point was the presumptive party favorite in twenty sixteen.
And so what I would say about all this is
you I'm seeing a lot of people who are very
nervous about the idea of a primary battle. And I
(20:41):
just I fundamentally reject that. If everybody decides, hey, I
want to get out and Trump is the guy, that's fine,
but I think it actually makes Trump a weaker candidate.
For your point, Buck, you have to hone yourself by
getting in that ring. The fact that Trump eliminated whatever
it was, eighteen other contenders in twenty sixteen made him
(21:02):
an infinitely stronger candidate. And I think, Buck, if you
go watch, and I'm curious if Trump himself would even acknowledge,
you go watch that first debate that he had against
Joe Biden. Donald Trump was awful in that first debate.
He only had two second when he cleaned his clock
first when he was awful. And I relative to pass
Trump debate performances. I think one reason he was awful,
(21:23):
and you often see this from presidents is because they're
not in fighting shape because they're used to being president
and they're not on the hustings out on the trail
having to sell themselves. And so this was why Trump
was bad in the first debate. He needs the reps,
he needs the practice. Whoever the nominee is and a
good scrap within the family of the GOP is not
(21:47):
is not a thing that that lasts forever. I mean,
you think about Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, Yes, you
know they they were they were swinging at each other
like Apollo Creed and Rocky Back. I mean, they were
taking each other heads off in the primary. And then
when Trump, you know one, it was almost like at
the end of a really tough boxing match. You'll you
see this, the two boxers actually like hug it out,
(22:09):
you know. Yep. Ted Cruz became a huge ally of
Trump's in the Senate and a big advocate of the
America First agenda, and they worked very well together in
that capacity. So look, it's politics like things. Things might
get a little rough in the primary between some of
the some of the people that are contenders here, but
they want the most powerful job in the world, right
(22:30):
Like this is the other thing. You know, they're not
They're not trying to be the favorite you know, neighborhood
third grade social studies teacher or something. Not that there's
anything wrong with that, but you get what I'm saying.
It's it's gonna be a little bit of a throwdown,
and that's fine. One thing I would like to hear
from Trump. Remember in twenty sixteen, Trump famously refused to
(22:51):
say that he wouldn't run if he was not the
Republican nominee. Remember that, like everybody else raised their hand
and said, I will support the nominee. I do think
my big concern about a contested primary is we need
to hear from Donald Trump and answer to that question.
If you were not the nominee, Let's say that Glen
Yunkin beats him. People decide out there in the primary
(23:12):
that they like Glenn Yunkin, or they like Ron De
Santis or Mike Pompeo, whoever else. I want we know
that De Santis and Pompeo and Glenn Yuncin I think
they would all do their best to elect a president
in twenty twenty four. What I want Donald Trump to answer,
and I think it's important, is if you were not
(23:32):
the nominee, will you pledge to help whoever that nominee
is to get elected in twenty twenty four? Because if
Trump is gonna say, hey, I'm the nominee or I'm
gonna run independent, then I think that should factor in
in how people make decisions. And also I think that
would reflect really poorly on Trump. I don't think he
(23:52):
would do that, but I'd like for him to answer
that question when there are going to be debates going
on between all of these different contestants, wouldn't you like
to hear the answer to that. I mean, he could
lie and say yes, I'm gonna pledge, but he didn't
answer into his credit in twenty sixteen. He didn't say, Hey,
I'm all in for whoever the other nominee is. I'd
like to think that in twenty four since he's the
(24:14):
head of the Republican Party, that he wouldn't take his
ball and go home and run as an independent candidate
and guarantee the Democrat wins again. I think that there
may be an expectation out there that no one's going
to run against Trump. I see this. I mean, I
have people that write in listen to the show. I'm
not sure how many of there are. I think it
(24:35):
is highly unlikely that there will be no competitors to
Donald Trump in the primary. Someone may think that Trump
will sweep them all away, and that's, of course fine,
we'll see. I don't know. I can't see the future,
but it would be I mean, what would I would
give a ten to one odds that there will be
people that get into this primary against Trump, right, I
mean you would have to You would have to give
(24:56):
me a ton of money to wager against they're being
I mean they're massive favorites. You said ten to one.
I think I would give like one to you know,
a hundred, meaning you'd have to give me a hundred
dollars if somebody didn't run, right like, I think it's
a massive favorite, that he's going to have several different
contenders and every dust. Remember it's also it's just too
(25:18):
much of a brand building exercise. I know that may
sound a bit cynical, but for a lot of people
it's they They go from being even like a congressman
or maybe even a businessman who used to be in politics,
to someone more on the national stage. You sell more books,
maybe you do another run. So there's gonna be I think,
Because there are people saying, well, no one's gonna get
(25:39):
it against Trump, I think that's highly unlikely. We could
be wrong, but I think that's highly unlikely. So you're
you're you're going to see some form of primary here,
and that would be I think too. I think everybody
should recognize that a primary that makes the candidate better
is something. There's a reason we have primaries. We don't
(26:00):
just try like a vote, right. We don't just say,
oh well, we don't need to hear them debate anything else.
So we shall see that. All said, it is Trump's
Republican Party right now. He is the leader of the
Republican Party right now, and it's in his hands to
make the case and to move this thing forward. Many
of the same topics debate in Washington, DC today have
been contemplated since the founding of this nation. Human rights, immigration,
(26:21):
foreign policy, marriage, big topics, each of them and worthy
of debate. They were important to our founding fathers, and
they're consistent and their constituents too, so much so that
their opinions and points of view were well documented. You
might be surprised what they thought and how similar the
conversations were then and actually now. Our friends at Hillsdale
College have created an entire online video course comparing it all,
(26:44):
and it's fascinating history. Like so many other video courses
created by Hillsdale, this is free for you to watch
and learn from. It's all part of Hillsdale's mission to
defend and explain our nation's freedoms. Watch the trailer video
of the real American founding a conversation and sign up
for this new, completely free online course at Clay and
(27:05):
Buck four Hillsdale dot com. That's Clay and Buck four
Hillsdale dot com. We've got our friend, the numbers man,
the political wonk, Ryan Gurdusky with us now. His very
excellent substack newsletter is the National Populist news Letter, which
(27:27):
you should all check out. His latest piece here is
mid Term post Mortem Finale and the subheadline play stupid games,
win stupid prizes. Ryan, Great to have you back. Thank
you for having me. All right, so let let's just
start with what do we need to learn from this
mid term? Right? I mean, we've got this audience very
(27:48):
up to speed obviously on you know, who won, who
lost and some of the broad themes. What are the
takeaways that the data now and explain how the data
does it make? Pretty ironclad? Okay, So first, mostly importantly,
there was no youth quake. The media has had this
narrative coming out that there was this giant army of
young gen Z people voting Democrat. Didn't happen at all.
(28:13):
They did vote Democrat, but they came out at a
smaller level than they did in twenty eighteen, and they
actually voted more Republican. The data shows that the tops
universities tissed college civic life. They're the ones who analyze
the youth vote every year. They said it. David Shore,
the brilliant liberal data analysts, looked at all the counties
(28:34):
where young bar voting was down. All of them didn't
happen whatsoever. Secondly, abortion major major major driver for independence,
and people who disliked Biden but didn't hate Biden. So
people who had like unfavorability were driven towards Democrats for
two reasons. Abortion and denying the twenty twenty election really
(28:57):
really really drove them away in very strong numbers. And
you can see it in the issue of Arizona. In Arizona,
there were nine statewide candidates. Five of them Republicans won
or are winning currently. Four loss. Before that loss all
random the election was stolen. The five one did not
talk about the election being stolen. That was a major
(29:19):
major indicator and that's probably why Trump yesterday during his
hour long announcement didn't mention the election being stolen whatsoever.
That well, a lot of people were also motivated to
vote against Trump, more motivated to vote against Trump than
were motivated to vote against Biden, which is very, very
very unusual. And that's why Independence. While Republicans had larger
(29:42):
turnout numbers. Republicans really did a good job turning out
and that w the popular vote, but it was swaying
against Us, swaying against Independence and people who only lean
Republican that really had they really had a big effect.
Candidate quality, Let's talk about that for a second. Candid
equality does matter to a point. You the guy. So
(30:02):
there's a guy named Tom Horne. He's currently winning an
unseeming and incumbent Democrat in the state of Arizona, where
public instruction. He's gonna be the superintendent for the whole state.
He is a seventie thing year old man, a lot
of history, a lot of baggage, a lot of negative
stories about him in the media. He's running against bilingual education,
(30:23):
running against CRT d Ei, YadA, YadA, YadA. He one
why because he talked about the issues that really affected people,
that were popular, that were conservative. He never ran away
from them, but he didn't delve into abortion, and he
didn't delve into the twenty twenty election. Reverse that with
the guy who ran in Pennsylvania for Governor. Doug Mastriano,
(30:43):
talked NonStop about the election, said he wanted to imprison
women and charge him with murder if they had an abortion,
and said Jesus Christ himself with intervene in the election
to make sure that he wanted huge mistake one other
thing and then will go to I'll let you guys
talk whatever. But U Republican showed your show, right, Um, Well,
(31:06):
Republicans way overperformed in a lot of blue areas that
didn't matter. So Republicans had all time highs in New
York City elects congressional elections, all time high in the
Los Angeles congressional elections. They overperformed by them by ten
something points in some of these places. It's just in
the places that they needed to overperform, they consistently underperformed.
(31:28):
That was problematic. They did much better with Asians, somewhat
better with Latinos and rural blacks, blacks who live in
the black belt of the South. And I think the
lastly we've had a lot of questions right now was
why are Republicans now re electing all the people in
leadership McConnell, McCarthy, YadA, YadA, YadA. How are they being rewarded.
There's an organization on the left called Act Blue. Act
(31:51):
Blue connects twenty one million small dollar Democrat downers of campaigns.
Is how John Fetterman was able to raise seventy five
million dollars for his Senate campaign on top of the
hundreds of millions of dollars for other congressional campaigns fifteen
million against Marjor Tyler Green in a super safe Republican district.
Republicans don't have anything close to this on our side.
(32:13):
And the only thing that Republicans can us have to
lean on are Kevin McCarthy and mister McConnell, and they're
super PACs, and I think that's something a reason why
they're doing well posts a fairly not good midterm election.
All right, Ryan, that's fantastic. I love when you come
on and just break down the data for us. So
let's play it forward. If you were looking at the
(32:34):
data that you have seen in twenty twenty two and
you were saying what needs to happen for a Republican
presidential candidate to win in twenty twenty four, and we
understand it's two years away and that the issues can
change and everything can evolve many different directions. But would
it be fair to say no one can talk about
(32:55):
the twenty twenty election and denying it that there needs
to be some form of abortion policy that is put
in place, whether it's like, hey, I believe that you
should be able to have an abortion, you know, up
to fifteen weeks or whatever it is. I'm talking about
a national candidate who's going to win some of these
purplish states. What would have to happen for Republicans to
(33:16):
win in twenty four given what you're talking about happened
in Arizona, in Georgia, in Pennsylvania and Nevada, in Michigan
and Wisconsin, all those states out there where this election
is going to be decided. Yeah, so the twenty twenty
election can never be revisited. It's just it's over. You
could talk about ballot harvesting, you could talk about checking,
(33:37):
you could talk about whatever you want. But if you
bring up at this point, if you are anything close
to a suburban district and you bring up the fact
that the twenty twenty election was stolen, you're going to lose.
It's just the case you're going to lose. That is,
it drives college educated white voters away, and there are
more of them than there are of minorities. So they
(33:58):
basically started to cut you off. But they basically branded
that so well Democrats did for even independent college educated
voters that if you're even touching that, you're like, it's
like a third rail for independent voters, you lose. Yeah,
that's think of it, like, think of it like privatizing
social Security something that oh, I don't know. Canids like
(34:20):
Rick Scott and Blake Master's also campaigned on another third rails.
You could privately believe it. I don't care. There's a
lot of things people privately believe but don't talk about
in polite society. At this point, it seems so toxic
to people, even people who dislike Joe Biden, that if
you bring it up, there's a good chance you will
lose talking about it. That is why Donald Trump, in
(34:43):
an hour long speech, did not mention once that that
the presidential letrama was stolen. Because the just the data
is out there, the polls have shown this people that
you need to win to win big elections. Do not
believe that, do not like talking about that, and they
really have believed the whole you know MSNBC line that
(35:03):
the democracy is under a threat, and they it feeds
into the narrative that in the abortion conversation that Republicans
are weird, Republicans are against your freedoms, Republicans are they
talk like they are all at a Trump rally or
a Seapack conference. That definitely hurts them. And furthermore, about abortion,
you asked an abortion before. If a candidate says I
(35:26):
have support, I'm pro life without exception, it is as
detrimental to a Republican as a Democrat saying I want
to defund the police. That is how badly it polls.
So when you hear somebody saying that remember independence, are
hearing defund the police, that is the same exact knee
jerk reaction. I think. I think personally, the federal government
(35:48):
does not have any role to play an abortion law.
It never did before in eighteen seventy something, and never
will I hopefully never will again. The states should decide
just sit there and say I don't support I do
not want the federal government being involved in your abortions.
I just don't want it. You have to take a
more libertarian statemate, that is the way the public is
on the issue, and just back away from it. And Ryan,
(36:12):
pro life governors did win though on last week by
the huge margins in Ohio, Texas, a, Florida, Georgia. Yeah, Ryan,
up one more thing. This is running up against the
clock and people should subscribe if you want to really
see what's going on in politics across the country. The
National Populist newsletter that Ryan has on sub stack and
we'll put it up at clanbuck dot com. We'll link
(36:32):
it there as people can find it easily. Ryan, one
more for you on this. You know, I can't tell
you how many text messages I've gotten in the last
week from people who are involved in campaigns, and what
they all keep saying to me is we have to
get the message to the top. If we tell people
to just show up on election day, if we do
not run mail in ballot campaigns ourselves, if we do
(36:54):
not use the rules as they are currently in place,
it doesn't matter who some of these candidates are or
who the presidential candidate is, they will lose absolutely. That's
one hundred percent true. As well. This romanticization that we
have towards only voting on election day is very acinine.
If you believe that they're going to screw with the
machines on election day, that's fine, go vote early. They
(37:17):
give They give them sometimes months to vote early, thing
I don't agree with, But as long as those are
the rules in place, you need to take advantage of
the rules. If I was on herschel Walker's campaign right now,
which I'm not, but if I was, all I would
be doing is collecting early ballots and distributing them and
dropping off either a drop boxes or to the Board
of Elections or whatever the case may be. But making
(37:39):
sure people vote early and getting the numbers. That's why
before the polls closed in Florida, De Senus had already won.
He won Miami Dad a week before election day because
they had gotten Republicans out in large enough numbers that
they knew Miami Dad was over. They knew the whole
election was over a week out. And it's very nice
(38:00):
thanks to sit they're in, have that position where you're
comfortable enough to sit they're in have at and know
you're going to win. So far in advance. It's a
turnout method. It's also swaying independent voters. But the turnout method.
Don't wait till election day. Vote our early, vote often
and if it and vote by any means necessary. Ryan
or Dusk, everybody. Ryan, appreciate your breaking it down for us.
Great sub stack piece on your midturn post mortem. Thanks
(38:23):
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Thinking about the future of the country. So are we
candidates Coverage and analysis you won't get anywhere else. Let's
go Donald Trump, as he told you he would do
last week on this program, officially announcing that he's going
to run for president in twenty twenty four. And we
(00:20):
will go ahead and play the audio of that official
announcement last night from Marlago. Here is what it sounded like.
In order to make America great and glorious again, I
am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States.
All right, So, Buck, I watched the entire speech as
(00:41):
it were. They carried much of it live on Fox
News during Sean Hannity's show. They cut in and out
a couple of times to allow people to react. I
guess what maybe stood out the most to me about
the entire address. It was very subdued, relatively speaking for
Donald Trump. Up felt also as a result, very presidential.
(01:04):
And he played a lot of the greatest hits from
his twenty sixteen campaign as a part of this announcement.
And also I think one reason why it was relatively
subdued was because I guess it was on Thursday, or
was it Wednesday night? I can't even remember when Trump
attacked Glenn Junkin, when he attacked Ron de Santis, when
(01:28):
he went after a lot of different people with all
of those statements. I think that that was generally not
received very well. And so the argument is out there,
and I think he followed basically what we said on
this program. Hey, it's got to be a forward looking campaign.
The thing that he said that I was most responsive
(01:49):
to in a positive direction, And I think he got
this one hundred percent correct, and I wish more Republicans
would be saying it. He said one of the first
things that he would do when he came into office
is to bring back everybody who lost their jobs in
the military over the COVID shot requirements. He would end
all Biden vaccine mandates, and he would give back pay
(02:12):
to all of those soldiers who lost their jobs over
the COVID shot. Thank god, somebody is finally saying that.
That's what jumped out the most to me about the
entire address. What about you, Buck, What stood out to
you to anything surprise you? How would you assess the
overall announcement itself? So much interesting stuff happening here when
(02:34):
you get in this early this far ahead of anyone
else who may run. And keep in mind there will
be people who may decide to run who have no
chance at all, but they use it as a chance
to get their name out there and sell books. You know,
somebody who's kind of more of a libertarian may run
as a Republican or whatever. We've seen that in the past,
distinct possibility of that, So you're likely to see some
(02:58):
names enter it just be because they'll be press associated
with that in the months ahead. Trump is in super
early and this is going to create I think some
advantages and some challenges. One thing that does seem that
that's I think stuck out to everybody last night, and
I watched the whole thing live too, was that Trump
(03:21):
was very clearly trying to take a common presidential tone throughout.
It wasn't you know, rock'em sock'em Trump in WWE mode.
You know, it was definitely a intentionally presidential tone. I
think the decision not to talk or not to focus
(03:42):
on on twenty twenty is the right one. I don't
I don't think anybody should have any confusion about that
from a pure tactical perspective, never mind anything else. That's
not going to work, and we're gonna have our friend
a Ryan ger Dusky joining us in the second or
today the program, who is a political consultant. All he
(04:03):
does is look at the polling, the exit polling, the data,
the numbers, the races, and will break down some of
the good, the bad, and the ugly from this election.
There was some good which you want to focus on
as well. It is in fact possible that today during
the show, we may I think be able to officially
call the House. I mean it's basically the House's GOP
(04:25):
now right, but it hasn't been official official called yet.
But I look, I think that Trump we're two years
out from the election, and there's going to be not
only an evolution of Trump in his campaign that will occur.
That's that's obvious. There's also going to be events that
will conspire to change around whatever plans are currently made,
(04:48):
whatever strategy is currently in place. So I think we
just follow this at every step, in every stage, and
it's it's good that there will be in my mind
at least more. The de facto leader of the Republican
Party came out last night and said, I am now
the you know, for right now he is the official
leader of the Republican Party. I don't think anyone would
(05:10):
really dispute that, as he is the only person who
has come out in favor of or come out officially running.
So we got to see, man, I mean, I want
to see how he does in these first six months.
The guy pulled off something of a political miracle, it
seems in twenty sixteen. He was a really great president
when he was in office in so many ways, accomplished
(05:32):
so many things. But the game has changed a lot,
the world has changed a lot. We've got to see
how it all stacks up. So I'm enthusiastic. I mean,
I'm happy that this is this is the trajectory right
now for the GOP to get to get serious about
winning after what just happened. Because it was a body blow.
We all know it should have been better than what
(05:52):
it was in the mid terms. Nobody was more ticked
off by the way than Clay and I. I mean,
we're sitting here, we're furious for days about how this thing.
But now we understand how it went that way. And
I think that Trump may be able to galvanize Republicans
to understand not only what's bad about Biden, but what
could be so much better under a Republican administration. The
(06:15):
thing that I would say is the announcement is unprecedented
to have someone announced to run for president, effectively fourteen
months until we actually have the first primary, which in
theory would be I still think it's going to be Iowa,
although how exactly that's going to shake out remains to
(06:36):
be seen because Democrats are saying Iowa isn't representative enough.
I think they may change their calendar. We'll see what
Republicans end up doing. But for Trump to be in
fourteen months before anyone out there listening to us right
now can have any official say in terms of who
they would support is a long time. And what we
(06:57):
don't know is what's going to happen with all these investigations.
And I think it's smart of Trump to be in
if he is going to be indicted, because now the storyline,
I think it's hard to avoid this being the storyline
is the chief political rival who has announced that he
is going to be running against Joe Biden, is being
(07:19):
investigated by the Department of Justice of Joe Biden. So
if he is indicted, now it's very easy for Trump
to say, this is a politically motivated indictment. But the
thing I wonder, and this circles back around to a
conversation we were having earlier this week. Democrats are desperate
for Donald Trump to be the nominee. Every Democrat out there,
(07:41):
if you say you get to pick a Republican, they
want to run against Donald Trump. Now. They were excited
for him to be the nominee in twenty sixteen, and
he beat him, But their entire party is basically defined
by saying Trump is Hitler. So my point on this is,
I think Trump is strength if they indict him. So
(08:03):
there's this idea out there, and I want you to
think about it a little bit counterintuitively, that Democrats are
trying to knock Trump out by investigating him at Mara Lago,
by rating with the FBI, I would actually argue the
opposite might be true, that they are trying to ensure
that he is the nominee. And I think one of
the things you could do that would most strengthen Trump
(08:24):
buck is actually indict him, because I think in base
rallies around him when the indictment happens. Well, right, if
we were getting this out a little bit. I see that.
But the indictment of Trump, which we believe would focus
on mishandling of classified and obstruction of government, right there
is Look it's gonna be if they bring that charge,
(08:46):
and can we just we're going down the rabbit hole here,
we're taking we're taking a drive through crazy town. So
everyone needs to understand that. Remember, the media spent three years.
I mean the fourth year was really more COVID obviously
than Russia collusion. But for three years, I mean, people
built huge careers and huge followings on the massive and
obvious lie that Donald Trump had worked with Putin to
(09:10):
steal the election. So this is also why I understand
people that say, well, you know, the twenty twenty election
steal conversation came after the twenty sixteen election steel conversation,
which it's completely fair to point that out. That is true.
But they're out of their minds, is my point. Like
like the things that you and I consider your clay
and say, well that's totally unreasonable. Wow exactly. I mean,
(09:32):
this is a party that just voted voted strongly for
John Feederman, as we know in Pennsylvania. Here's the thing.
If they bring the charge it would be. Let's say
they bring a federal federal indictment against Donald Trump, It'll
be in a d DC Circuit court, right, That's where
it's going to happen. That's where the charge will. I
don't know, do you think. I mean, I wouldn't be
in Florida. I don't know how that exactly would work.
(09:53):
I think it would be in in DC. And if
you get a DC jury, it's gonna be a Trump
hating jury of MSNBC watching libs. And if you tell
them you know, this guy should probably serve three or
four months in prison, I think they would go for it. Yeah,
there's there's no presidential protection, there's no pardon, there's nothing
(10:15):
for him. So you know, you're saying if they indict him,
the optics strengthen him. I say that's true. But if
they indict him, if they do that, wouldn't they also
try to send him to night A. Look, they're not
gonna to get him fron ten years or something crazy,
but wouldn't they try to make him serve some jail time?
I think they would. The problem is I don't think
(10:36):
that they would be able to get the entire court
proceeding done before election day. So this is I mean again,
this is why it's so crazy to think about. So
if they indicted him now, it would take months before
any kind of actual trial could take place. Any appeal
would take forever. Right, I think we would be voting
(10:58):
for president before there was a resolution to whatever charges
might be brought against Trump because I think based on
the Special Master hearing and everything else, it's unlikely they
could bring any charges until the spring of twenty three. Now,
so if they bring him in the spring of twenty three, buck,
he could already be the nominee. You know, by March
(11:19):
of twenty four will probably know who the Republican nominee is.
But but then we get back to you, also, does
it rally the Trump? First of all, are they even
going to bring charges? This is still a big I
know you think they will. Ye, we'll see. But if
they bring charges, it certainly goes to the narrative of
the swamp the apparatus. Yeah, going after Trump. However, there
(11:43):
is this lesson we have learned from the swing states.
We overperformed in red states and in blue states. This
is the part of it. That's the reason. Just so
I want to ever understand this, This is really important.
The reason we have a House majority now. The reason
is Florida, which just ran the table. New York, which,
(12:07):
while we didn't win the governor's race, won a bunch
of down ticket congressional ballots seats that were real critical.
I think four of them in Long Island alone really important.
And California, so we overperformed, and there's other states you
could throw into the mix there too. So we know
how to get Republican voters fired up in blue states
(12:28):
right now, and we know certainly how to get Republican
voters in the red states fired up. But to win
the presidency, you gotta get it's we all know that
it's going to be at least you know, given the
political trajectory that we've seen for the last couple of years,
it's going to be the same states that are an
issue right now. You may throw one or two. You know,
Virginia might be in play, right I mean, there's some
(12:48):
things that could switch a little bit. And Clay an
indicted presidential candidate, how does that play out, not to
our friends, not to our audience, to the independence will
determine Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin. I don't know
that's part of this. I don't I think we'll pretend
(13:09):
to know. I think it damages Trump immensely, But that's
where I think their play is. I think they know
that it strengthens him with the Republican base, likely gets
him the nomination, but wounds him to such an extent
that he's unlikely to be able to win in those
toss up states. I think that's their play. I think
that's where they're headed. I mean that would be that.
(13:30):
I think the conventional wisdom would be indicted Trump scares
away independence and squishy Republican college educated white voters, and
you get twenty twenty two in the swing states all
over again. And that's the play that they'd be making. Yeah,
no doubt. And so I think it's going to be
fascinating to see exactly how all of that shakes out.
Before all is said and done, we'll continue to break
(13:52):
this down. Also, we'll continue to let you guys react
one two eight two two eight eight two. You can
react to what Trump said also the election. We're continuing
to let people react to that as well. In the meantime,
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months out from the actual primary season voting starting. Of course,
(15:16):
we're still two years away from the twenty twenty four
presidential election, which we told you on this show would
effectively start as soon as the mid terms were over.
So I wonder Buck, big picture here. If you are
going to challenge Trump, Let's say you are Ron de Santis.
(15:37):
Let's say you are Glenn Junkin. Let's say you are
Mike Pompeo or even Mike Pence, and you are out
there and you are thinking, Hey, I'm going to throw
my hat in the ring, because Buck, as you mentioned,
a lot of people run with the knowledge that it's
highly unlikely that they would ever be the nomination. But
it helps their speaking fees. It makes them widely well
(15:59):
known to tens of millions of people that otherwise wouldn't
have known them. When they get to stand on the stage.
It may also help them if there's a particular issue
that you are really focused on that you think is
not getting enough attention from the Republican Party, it can
help to alter the conversation or put your issue on
the stage. Right, So there are many reasons why people
(16:20):
could announce what's the timeframe on them? Now? Because that's
the other thing I was thinking in the back of
my head as we watch Trump. Now. I don't actually
know anything about professional boxing and reality, but I have
seen all the Rocky movies, so I do know that
you gotta train, and you gotta you know, have some
some bouts before the big bout. You know, you gotta
(16:41):
make sure you're in fighting form. Also, The Fighter, I thought,
with Mark Mark Wahlberg, was a very great boxing movie.
Cinderella Man also pretty good. I like The Fighter a
little bit more, but there's a lot there's some great
boxing movies. Anyway. The primary process is exactly that. I mean,
you actually don't want someone you know who you know
who thought she was going to breeze through a primary
(17:02):
and every everybody should just get out of the way.
Hillary Clinton, I think, you know Hubris Hubris in two
thousand and eight was one of her many downfalls. And
I think that in this in this situation, we're likely
to see some people who were going to come forward
and if they're in a primary with Trump. Look. One
of the more phenomenal things about the initial Trump rise
(17:24):
was the way that he was able to in a
very crowded field with some big name Republicans who are
are still you know, very much Ted Cruz and Marc
Rubio and people that are still very much in the
game today and in significant ways. But he was able
to get himself ahead of that pack. And I think
that was that was honing the skill, you know, that
(17:45):
was actually sharpening the axe to go out there and
chop down the trees faster like. It was actually a
process that was worthwhile for him. So I don't think
that anybody should think that a primary is the equivalent
of some kind of GOP civil war. It's gonna take
the that wasn't the case in twenty sixteen, and that
was a bruising primary. So if we go in that direction,
(18:07):
recent history tells us Okay, let's see how Let's see
how that shakes out, and see where the politics are
for the country, see where the mood of the country
is at that moment in time when people will get
in Look, I haven't. I was actually surprised to hear this,
and I will share this. I've heard people that would
(18:28):
would be in a position to know they think very
seriously that Glenn youngcan's going to get in Yeah, which
I you know, everyone's so focused on to Sandus now.
To a lot of our audience, I'm sure, especially people
that are very excited for Trump, they're like, well, that's
a okay, but it's it's somebody who's the guy's worth
a couple of hundred million dollars. He's a governor of Virginia.
You know, he may throw his hat in the ring.
(18:50):
And I think that, you know, even if you just
view them as sparring partners for Trump, at some level,
it's a good thing. Yeah, I do not think that
a coronation. From the very beginning, he's really to anyone's
bet if it was part including Trump, I think you
want him to be you know, to be out there
sparring and to be making the case. And he needs
to be doing that because I think everyone's seen this.
(19:12):
It is a savvier, more ruthless Democrat machine now than
it was in twenty sixteen. They have figured out some tricks.
They have something. They will not allow Trump to get
all the free advertising he did before. They will not
allow him to leverage their toys, their social media platforms
against him. So there has to be an evolution that
(19:35):
he would take in this process in order to bring
us the victory that we so desire in twenty twenty four.
I think Trump believes Glenn Yunkin is going to get
in the race, which is why he attacked him. You know,
we everybody focused on the DeSantis attack, but he also
went after Glenn Yunkin. And he's getting in, Like I
would be surprised at this point, Clay, I can't. I
(19:57):
can't reveal this worst but I've I've been told that
he's getting in. Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me at all.
I mean, I think it's going to be de Santis.
I think it's gonna be Glenn Yunkin. I think I
mentioned him yesterday talking about the fact that I thought
he was going to run and Trump. And remember to
your point on twenty sixteen, do you remember who in
the Republican Party had all the money and all of
(20:17):
the organization and everybody was like, this is the guy
are you talking about? Jeb exclamation Jeb exclamation point. Jeb
exclamation Point was the presumptive party favorite in twenty sixteen.
And so what I would say about all this is
you I'm seeing a lot of people who are very
nervous about the idea of a primary battle. And I
(20:41):
just I fundamentally reject that. If everybody decides, hey, I
want to get out and Trump is the guy, that's fine,
but I think it actually makes Trump a weaker candidate.
For your point, Buck, you have to hone yourself by
getting in that ring. The fact that Trump eliminated whatever
it was, eighteen other contenders in twenty sixteen made him
(21:02):
an infinitely stronger candidate. And I think, Buck, if you
go watch, and I'm curious if Trump himself would even acknowledge,
you go watch that first debate that he had against
Joe Biden. Donald Trump was awful in that first debate.
He only had two second when he cleaned his clock
first when he was awful. And I relative to pass
Trump debate performances. I think one reason he was awful,
(21:23):
and you often see this from presidents is because they're
not in fighting shape because they're used to being president
and they're not on the hustings out on the trail
having to sell themselves. And so this was why Trump
was bad in the first debate. He needs the reps,
he needs the practice. Whoever the nominee is and a
good scrap within the family of the GOP is not
(21:47):
is not a thing that that lasts forever. I mean,
you think about Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, Yes, you
know they they were they were swinging at each other
like Apollo Creed and Rocky Back. I mean, they were
taking each other heads off in the primary. And then
when Trump, you know one, it was almost like at
the end of a really tough boxing match. You'll you
see this, the two boxers actually like hug it out,
(22:09):
you know. Yep. Ted Cruz became a huge ally of
Trump's in the Senate and a big advocate of the
America First agenda, and they worked very well together in
that capacity. So look, it's politics like things. Things might
get a little rough in the primary between some of
the some of the people that are contenders here, but
they want the most powerful job in the world, right
(22:30):
Like this is the other thing. You know, they're not
They're not trying to be the favorite you know, neighborhood
third grade social studies teacher or something. Not that there's
anything wrong with that, but you get what I'm saying.
It's it's gonna be a little bit of a throwdown,
and that's fine. One thing I would like to hear
from Trump. Remember in twenty sixteen, Trump famously refused to
(22:51):
say that he wouldn't run if he was not the
Republican nominee. Remember that, like everybody else raised their hand
and said, I will support the nominee. I do think
my big concern about a contested primary is we need
to hear from Donald Trump and answer to that question.
If you were not the nominee, Let's say that Glen
Yunkin beats him. People decide out there in the primary
(23:12):
that they like Glenn Yunkin, or they like Ron De
Santis or Mike Pompeo, whoever else. I want we know
that De Santis and Pompeo and Glenn Yuncin I think
they would all do their best to elect a president
in twenty twenty four. What I want Donald Trump to answer,
and I think it's important, is if you were not
(23:32):
the nominee, will you pledge to help whoever that nominee
is to get elected in twenty twenty four? Because if
Trump is gonna say, hey, I'm the nominee or I'm
gonna run independent, then I think that should factor in
in how people make decisions. And also I think that
would reflect really poorly on Trump. I don't think he
(23:52):
would do that, but I'd like for him to answer
that question when there are going to be debates going
on between all of these different contestants, wouldn't you like
to hear the answer to that. I mean, he could
lie and say yes, I'm gonna pledge, but he didn't
answer into his credit in twenty sixteen. He didn't say, Hey,
I'm all in for whoever the other nominee is. I'd
like to think that in twenty four since he's the
(24:14):
head of the Republican Party, that he wouldn't take his
ball and go home and run as an independent candidate
and guarantee the Democrat wins again. I think that there
may be an expectation out there that no one's going
to run against Trump. I see this. I mean, I
have people that write in listen to the show. I'm
not sure how many of there are. I think it
(24:35):
is highly unlikely that there will be no competitors to
Donald Trump in the primary. Someone may think that Trump
will sweep them all away, and that's, of course fine,
we'll see. I don't know. I can't see the future,
but it would be I mean, what would I would
give a ten to one odds that there will be
people that get into this primary against Trump, right, I
mean you would have to You would have to give
(24:56):
me a ton of money to wager against they're being
I mean they're massive favorites. You said ten to one.
I think I would give like one to you know,
a hundred, meaning you'd have to give me a hundred
dollars if somebody didn't run, right like, I think it's
a massive favorite, that he's going to have several different
contenders and every dust. Remember it's also it's just too
(25:18):
much of a brand building exercise. I know that may
sound a bit cynical, but for a lot of people
it's they They go from being even like a congressman
or maybe even a businessman who used to be in politics,
to someone more on the national stage. You sell more books,
maybe you do another run. So there's gonna be I think,
Because there are people saying, well, no one's gonna get
(25:39):
it against Trump, I think that's highly unlikely. We could
be wrong, but I think that's highly unlikely. So you're
you're you're going to see some form of primary here,
and that would be I think too. I think everybody
should recognize that a primary that makes the candidate better
is something. There's a reason we have primaries. We don't
(26:00):
just try like a vote, right. We don't just say,
oh well, we don't need to hear them debate anything else.
So we shall see that. All said, it is Trump's
Republican Party right now. He is the leader of the
Republican Party right now, and it's in his hands to
make the case and to move this thing forward. Many
of the same topics debate in Washington, DC today have
been contemplated since the founding of this nation. Human rights, immigration,
(26:21):
foreign policy, marriage, big topics, each of them and worthy
of debate. They were important to our founding fathers, and
they're consistent and their constituents too, so much so that
their opinions and points of view were well documented. You
might be surprised what they thought and how similar the
conversations were then and actually now. Our friends at Hillsdale
College have created an entire online video course comparing it all,
(26:44):
and it's fascinating history. Like so many other video courses
created by Hillsdale, this is free for you to watch
and learn from. It's all part of Hillsdale's mission to
defend and explain our nation's freedoms. Watch the trailer video
of the real American founding a conversation and sign up
for this new, completely free online course at Clay and
(27:05):
Buck four Hillsdale dot com. That's Clay and Buck four
Hillsdale dot com. We've got our friend, the numbers man,
the political wonk, Ryan Gurdusky with us now. His very
excellent substack newsletter is the National Populist news Letter, which
(27:27):
you should all check out. His latest piece here is
mid Term post Mortem Finale and the subheadline play stupid games,
win stupid prizes. Ryan, Great to have you back. Thank
you for having me. All right, so let let's just
start with what do we need to learn from this
mid term? Right? I mean, we've got this audience very
(27:48):
up to speed obviously on you know, who won, who
lost and some of the broad themes. What are the
takeaways that the data now and explain how the data
does it make? Pretty ironclad? Okay, So first, mostly importantly,
there was no youth quake. The media has had this
narrative coming out that there was this giant army of
young gen Z people voting Democrat. Didn't happen at all.
(28:13):
They did vote Democrat, but they came out at a
smaller level than they did in twenty eighteen, and they
actually voted more Republican. The data shows that the tops
universities tissed college civic life. They're the ones who analyze
the youth vote every year. They said it. David Shore,
the brilliant liberal data analysts, looked at all the counties
(28:34):
where young bar voting was down. All of them didn't
happen whatsoever. Secondly, abortion major major major driver for independence,
and people who disliked Biden but didn't hate Biden. So
people who had like unfavorability were driven towards Democrats for
two reasons. Abortion and denying the twenty twenty election really
(28:57):
really really drove them away in very strong numbers. And
you can see it in the issue of Arizona. In Arizona,
there were nine statewide candidates. Five of them Republicans won
or are winning currently. Four loss. Before that loss all
random the election was stolen. The five one did not
talk about the election being stolen. That was a major
(29:19):
major indicator and that's probably why Trump yesterday during his
hour long announcement didn't mention the election being stolen whatsoever.
That well, a lot of people were also motivated to
vote against Trump, more motivated to vote against Trump than
were motivated to vote against Biden, which is very, very
very unusual. And that's why Independence. While Republicans had larger
(29:42):
turnout numbers. Republicans really did a good job turning out
and that w the popular vote, but it was swaying
against Us, swaying against Independence and people who only lean
Republican that really had they really had a big effect.
Candidate quality, Let's talk about that for a second. Candid
equality does matter to a point. You the guy. So
(30:02):
there's a guy named Tom Horne. He's currently winning an
unseeming and incumbent Democrat in the state of Arizona, where
public instruction. He's gonna be the superintendent for the whole state.
He is a seventie thing year old man, a lot
of history, a lot of baggage, a lot of negative
stories about him in the media. He's running against bilingual education,
(30:23):
running against CRT d Ei, YadA, YadA, YadA. He one
why because he talked about the issues that really affected people,
that were popular, that were conservative. He never ran away
from them, but he didn't delve into abortion, and he
didn't delve into the twenty twenty election. Reverse that with
the guy who ran in Pennsylvania for Governor. Doug Mastriano,
(30:43):
talked NonStop about the election, said he wanted to imprison
women and charge him with murder if they had an abortion,
and said Jesus Christ himself with intervene in the election
to make sure that he wanted huge mistake one other
thing and then will go to I'll let you guys
talk whatever. But U Republican showed your show, right, Um, Well,
(31:06):
Republicans way overperformed in a lot of blue areas that
didn't matter. So Republicans had all time highs in New
York City elects congressional elections, all time high in the
Los Angeles congressional elections. They overperformed by them by ten
something points in some of these places. It's just in
the places that they needed to overperform, they consistently underperformed.
(31:28):
That was problematic. They did much better with Asians, somewhat
better with Latinos and rural blacks, blacks who live in
the black belt of the South. And I think the
lastly we've had a lot of questions right now was
why are Republicans now re electing all the people in
leadership McConnell, McCarthy, YadA, YadA, YadA. How are they being rewarded.
There's an organization on the left called Act Blue. Act
(31:51):
Blue connects twenty one million small dollar Democrat downers of campaigns.
Is how John Fetterman was able to raise seventy five
million dollars for his Senate campaign on top of the
hundreds of millions of dollars for other congressional campaigns fifteen
million against Marjor Tyler Green in a super safe Republican district.
Republicans don't have anything close to this on our side.
(32:13):
And the only thing that Republicans can us have to
lean on are Kevin McCarthy and mister McConnell, and they're
super PACs, and I think that's something a reason why
they're doing well posts a fairly not good midterm election.
All right, Ryan, that's fantastic. I love when you come
on and just break down the data for us. So
let's play it forward. If you were looking at the
(32:34):
data that you have seen in twenty twenty two and
you were saying what needs to happen for a Republican
presidential candidate to win in twenty twenty four, and we
understand it's two years away and that the issues can
change and everything can evolve many different directions. But would
it be fair to say no one can talk about
(32:55):
the twenty twenty election and denying it that there needs
to be some form of abortion policy that is put
in place, whether it's like, hey, I believe that you
should be able to have an abortion, you know, up
to fifteen weeks or whatever it is. I'm talking about
a national candidate who's going to win some of these
purplish states. What would have to happen for Republicans to
(33:16):
win in twenty four given what you're talking about happened
in Arizona, in Georgia, in Pennsylvania and Nevada, in Michigan
and Wisconsin, all those states out there where this election
is going to be decided. Yeah, so the twenty twenty
election can never be revisited. It's just it's over. You
could talk about ballot harvesting, you could talk about checking,
(33:37):
you could talk about whatever you want. But if you
bring up at this point, if you are anything close
to a suburban district and you bring up the fact
that the twenty twenty election was stolen, you're going to lose.
It's just the case you're going to lose. That is,
it drives college educated white voters away, and there are
more of them than there are of minorities. So they
(33:58):
basically started to cut you off. But they basically branded
that so well Democrats did for even independent college educated
voters that if you're even touching that, you're like, it's
like a third rail for independent voters, you lose. Yeah,
that's think of it, like, think of it like privatizing
social Security something that oh, I don't know. Canids like
(34:20):
Rick Scott and Blake Master's also campaigned on another third rails.
You could privately believe it. I don't care. There's a
lot of things people privately believe but don't talk about
in polite society. At this point, it seems so toxic
to people, even people who dislike Joe Biden, that if
you bring it up, there's a good chance you will
lose talking about it. That is why Donald Trump, in
(34:43):
an hour long speech, did not mention once that that
the presidential letrama was stolen. Because the just the data
is out there, the polls have shown this people that
you need to win to win big elections. Do not
believe that, do not like talking about that, and they
really have believed the whole you know MSNBC line that
(35:03):
the democracy is under a threat, and they it feeds
into the narrative that in the abortion conversation that Republicans
are weird, Republicans are against your freedoms, Republicans are they
talk like they are all at a Trump rally or
a Seapack conference. That definitely hurts them. And furthermore, about abortion,
you asked an abortion before. If a candidate says I
(35:26):
have support, I'm pro life without exception, it is as
detrimental to a Republican as a Democrat saying I want
to defund the police. That is how badly it polls.
So when you hear somebody saying that remember independence, are
hearing defund the police, that is the same exact knee
jerk reaction. I think. I think personally, the federal government
(35:48):
does not have any role to play an abortion law.
It never did before in eighteen seventy something, and never
will I hopefully never will again. The states should decide
just sit there and say I don't support I do
not want the federal government being involved in your abortions.
I just don't want it. You have to take a
more libertarian statemate, that is the way the public is
on the issue, and just back away from it. And Ryan,
(36:12):
pro life governors did win though on last week by
the huge margins in Ohio, Texas, a, Florida, Georgia. Yeah, Ryan,
up one more thing. This is running up against the
clock and people should subscribe if you want to really
see what's going on in politics across the country. The
National Populist newsletter that Ryan has on sub stack and
we'll put it up at clanbuck dot com. We'll link
(36:32):
it there as people can find it easily. Ryan, one
more for you on this. You know, I can't tell
you how many text messages I've gotten in the last
week from people who are involved in campaigns, and what
they all keep saying to me is we have to
get the message to the top. If we tell people
to just show up on election day, if we do
not run mail in ballot campaigns ourselves, if we do
(36:54):
not use the rules as they are currently in place,
it doesn't matter who some of these candidates are or
who the presidential candidate is, they will lose absolutely. That's
one hundred percent true. As well. This romanticization that we
have towards only voting on election day is very acinine.
If you believe that they're going to screw with the
machines on election day, that's fine, go vote early. They
(37:17):
give They give them sometimes months to vote early, thing
I don't agree with, But as long as those are
the rules in place, you need to take advantage of
the rules. If I was on herschel Walker's campaign right now,
which I'm not, but if I was, all I would
be doing is collecting early ballots and distributing them and
dropping off either a drop boxes or to the Board
of Elections or whatever the case may be. But making
(37:39):
sure people vote early and getting the numbers. That's why
before the polls closed in Florida, De Senus had already won.
He won Miami Dad a week before election day because
they had gotten Republicans out in large enough numbers that
they knew Miami Dad was over. They knew the whole
election was over a week out. And it's very nice
(38:00):
thanks to sit they're in, have that position where you're
comfortable enough to sit they're in have at and know
you're going to win. So far in advance. It's a
turnout method. It's also swaying independent voters. But the turnout method.
Don't wait till election day. Vote our early, vote often
and if it and vote by any means necessary. Ryan
or Dusk, everybody. Ryan, appreciate your breaking it down for us.
Great sub stack piece on your midturn post mortem. Thanks
(38:23):
so much. Thank you. If you could save a life,
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