May 22, 2023 • 37 mins
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott enters the GOP presidential primary. Is he really running for VP? DeSantis takes a shot at Trump on Operation Warp Speed. Would a successful Tim Scott candidacy blow up identity politics? Data on black voters in Walker-Warnock Georgia senate race. Trump praises Tim Scott, wishes him luck. SC callers on Scott.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to today's edition of The Clay Travis and Buck
Sexton Show podcast. Monday edition. Clay and Buck kicks off
right now. Everybody, thank you for being here with us.
We missed you over the weekend. We trust you are
ready for action today. Relaxed after a couple of days
away from the show. We've got a lot to discuss
(00:20):
with all of you. Bud Light continues to tank, and
we keep saying, I mean, they just really need to
apologize and spend some money on conservative shows and maybe
things will turn around for them. But they won't do it.
We'll get into a little bit more of that.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
You have.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
The New York City mayor is calling for migrants to
be sent to every US city across the country. This
is always fascinating Democrats say migrants are and where they
say migrants. Just to be very clear, they're not talking
about immigrants who come here legally. Illegal aliens was the
term we were all using until about five minutes ago.
(01:02):
Illegal aliens build this country, make us all richer, and
make everything better. But somehow they're a huge financial drain
on New York City such that New York City needs
to send them to other places because they can't afford them.
That's an interesting situation, isn't it? Also Eric Adams, as
you notice, I've got a lot of New York on
my mind these days. Eric Adams has a new planet
(01:24):
combat retail theft, which is a massive, massive, millions and
millions of dollars problem in New York City. An update
on the Epstein Jeffrey Epstein situation involving Bill Gates in
the Wall Street Journal that I thought was interesting. I
want to talk to you. We haven't spoken much, Clay,
and I haven't talked to you a lot about Epstein's
(01:45):
case and how there is still a lot that is
unresolved there. There's a lot that we are told to
accept that many of us say that is unacceptable, meaning
we don't have proper answers, we don't have what we need.
So we'll get into that. A shooting in Memphis, Tennessee
that had a lot of people particularly fired up over
(02:07):
the weekend because the homeowner, defending himself, his home, and
his family from incoming fire, was arrested at his facing
charges from the Soros back DA in Memphis, Tennessee. So
returning fire now can get you locked up. We'll explain
that one later on. Oh, one more thing the NAACP
(02:31):
is telling is telling people don't go to Florida. They're saying,
don't go to Florida, the state where the biggest problem.
Here you go, if you travel to Florida, be where
your life is not valuable. Play that audio for you later.
But the state where the biggest problem is no one
is able to afford houses in the biggest cities because
(02:51):
of supply and demand, because everyone is moving to Florida.
They're saying, no, don't go, your life is not valued.
But let's start with this. Clay always like to focus
in on politics. The primary feels like the primary is
underway now, you know, it feels like we're really starting
to enter that phase where this is going to be
a dominant theme, a dominant situation day to day in
(03:13):
American politics. Tim Scott, the Senator, a senator from South Carolina,
just formally announced he is in this fight. Here is
just from a few moments ago, the Senator from South Carolina.
Play it.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
They're replacing education within doctrination. They spent COVID locking kids
out of the classroom. And in Biden's America, crime is
on the rise and law enforcement is in retreat. The
far left is Indian cash bails. They're demonizing, demoralizing, and
defunding the police. Joe Biden and the radical left are
(03:49):
attacking every single rung of the ladder that helped me climb.
And that's why I'm announcing today that I'm running part
president off of the United States America.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
A fiery announcement. Sorry I stepped on it for a
second there. Tell me, Clay, what is your first reaction
to I mean, my sense is Senator Scott is very
widely liked in GOP circles. Everyone is like, I like
Senator Scott. He's a good man. What does it mean
for the political race? So I love the way he
(04:32):
announced there.
Speaker 4 (04:33):
It's like he was a macho man Randy Savage or
hold Cogan, like ripping off his shirt to reveal a
US flag underneath or something. Tim Scott, we've had him
on the show a lot. I'm sure we'll have him
on at some point this week enters into a race
that I think it's fair to say buck right now,
there are about five people that most people would recognize
(04:56):
as running for the rate. There's a lot of people
who have entered right but I would say, obviously, Lee Trump,
we expect the Santis.
Speaker 1 (05:02):
The reports were He's going to enter.
Speaker 4 (05:04):
This week as well, Nicki Haley, Tim Scott, and then
maybe Vivik Ramaswami is in that five. We'll see whether
Mike Pence is going to enter. There's been a lot
of talk that suddenly Chris Christy's going to enter. I
am curious most with Tim Scott entering whether he's really
running for president or is he running for vice president,
(05:25):
because if he were running for president, then he would
immediately attack Donald Trump, who is the leader. And I
would say what everybody needs to pay attention to so
far that characterizes this race, Buck, is almost everybody has
gone after Ron DeSantis, the guy who's presumed to be
in second place and isn't even officially in this race,
(05:48):
as opposed to going after Trump. And the reason why
I would point this out is what was the number
one story of twenty sixteen, Buck, When you go look
back at the Republican primary nineteen eighteen, whatever it was,
nineteen people enter and everybody thinks Trump's gonna fade. I
just need to get it down to me versus Trump,
(06:09):
and then what happened? They got it down to me
versus Trump, and instead of Trump falling back and the
counter puncher being the nominee, Trump just surged even more
into a more prominent spot. And the reason I bring
this up is, so long as everybody is attacking DeSantis
(06:30):
as opposed to Trump, what it means to me, Buck
is everybody's actually angling to try to be vice president,
or they're angling to be in the Trump administration more
than they want to be president. Now, Tim Scott has
a compelling story. I agree with much of what he says.
He is really selling the idea of the Barack Obama
(06:52):
sund sold in two thousand and eight, which is America
is a redemptive, incredibly successful country where any kid that's
born today can grow up to be president of the
United States. And that is to me what Tim Scott's
ultimate message is, whether you get into the nitty gritty
of his politics, his message is America is an exceptional place,
(07:13):
the greatest, freest country in the history of the world.
And my life story is evidence of the American dream
and what is possible here. And so I think that's
very compelling. The question I have, and I'm curious what
you would say to this, is is he actually running
for president or is he running for vice president?
Speaker 1 (07:31):
I think he's running for vice president. Yeah, And I
don't mean that in any to be dismissive or disrespectful
of the idea that we don't know because we don't, Okay,
no one really knows where this prime area is going
to go and if but running for vice president for
someone like Tim Scott makes a lot of if you're
(07:51):
a strategist for him, makes a lot of sense, right,
especially if it's for Trump, because you know you're on
the launch pad. My friend, you're your four years. If
Trump wins, you got four And but it's not even
four years. Within two years of Trump's second term, tim
Scott would be gearing up for his own presidential run.
So it's a very different vice presidential slot now with
(08:14):
a term limited second term president, then it would have
been if you're running, you know, if you're running to
be someone's VP for possibly eight years, like Joe Biden
was for Barack Obama, that's a long time now. I
know Biden ended up coming back and winning the presidency,
but there was a once in a century pandemic and
some crazy things happened. So the Tim Scott running for VP.
To me, makes uh that that's the long term play
(08:36):
makes a lot of sense that the places where I
think he could be a little bit vulnerable in the
primary to the degree that I'm not sure. He's again
very a very likable guy who has loves America, you know,
tells us a story of America as a great place.
That so you're gonna have so much connection with him
(08:59):
from even voters in the primary DeSantis voters in the
primary Desantas hasn't announced yet, but we're days away probably
and others. The only place though, if you're going to
see him, I think get some my understand I should
check on the immigration thing. I think he's not great
on immigration from a very conservative or right of center
(09:20):
point of view, my point of view. And also on
the criminal justice reform issue. If you remember, after George Floyd,
he was we need to talk about police reform, and
I was shouting in June and twenty twenty about this
isn't about police reform. There are people rioting in the streets.
They don't care about police reform. This is something else,
This is ominous, this is wrong. So he was on
(09:41):
the wrong side of that issue in the beginning. Now
did he get better? Sure, that's a place where I
could see him getting some criticism. If anyone out there,
and I really mean this, we've got a lot of
South Carolinians who it's fun to say Carolinian, a lot
of South Carolinians who listened to the show. If you
think Tim Scott could go the disc stance, or if
you just want to want to weigh in, maybe you
(10:03):
don't think Tim Scott should be running at all, Maybe you're
not a eage fan eight under two A two two
eight A two Clay. We've got that. But we've also
got in addition to the Tim Scott announcement, we have
a likely Ron DeSantis announcement coming later this week. And
can I just throw this into the mix. I want
ever to listen very closely. This was over the weekend.
(10:26):
So when Ron is talking to Governor Florida talking about COVID,
what he says about say the vaccines and warp speed
and the language he uses play clip one.
Speaker 5 (10:38):
The way they weaponized these COVID vacsas was a massive
incursion into our freedoms. They wanted to deny people the
right to put food on their table if they didn't
bend the knee and get a COVID shot that they
may not have wanted and that many of them did
not need. We can never allow warp speed to trump
(11:00):
informed consent in this country ever.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
Again that line, Clay, we can never allow warp speed
to trump informed consent. We all understand what he's doing here.
He's calling out warp speed because this is one This
is I can't think of a place where the Trump
base is more uncertain of Trump honestly on policy than
(11:26):
on his I still think warp speed was amazing and
saved you know, one hundred million lives line, and I
think Ron's going after it here early.
Speaker 4 (11:34):
Yeah, that's where Trump is caught between the reality of
the results of the COVID shot. It's basically worthless, let's
be honest, by and large in terms of anything, it
is truly worth his clay, because they're throwing it out
now all over the world basically, and every school and
university that made such a big deal about the fact
(11:54):
that kids had to get the shot and then also
be boosted, they're quietly removing the COVID shot from their
list of vaccine requirements. And for anybody out there who
remembers going into college and the shots requirement. You have
to have the vaccine immunology as a part of being admitted.
You probably remember having to submit something there. To my knowledge,
(12:15):
they've never pulled a shot off of that list in
most of our lives. So the fact that they're just
suddenly now quietly, all of these schools which were so
draconian about getting the shot, they're suddenly pulling it back.
Let you know what's going on. I think it's an
area or remember, strategically, Desantus is attacking Trump from the right.
(12:37):
Nobody's ever really gone after Trump because Trump has typically
had a lot of support on the right side of
the political equation, at least in the last six years
or so. And I think the single most vulnerable part
of Trump's twenty twenty four candidacy is potentially his argument
that the COVID shot was a success. Now that actually
(13:02):
might play well in a general election, though buck ironically
for Trump, because there are a lot of middle of
the road voters who want to believe that they didn't
get completely snookered, that that COVID shot really was a success.
And so this is one of those angles where look,
DeSantis is more right wing on abortion than Trump is.
(13:22):
Trump in some ways is almost running a general election
campaign in the Republican primary. I think that's interesting. Let's
also talk a little bit more about Tim Scott. We
got back, come back, because I've got a theory on
Tim Scott. I'm curious if you buy it or not. Buck,
We'll talk about that when we come back. In the meantime.
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Speaker 1 (14:37):
Helping you separate truth from fiction and every single weekday
the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show.
Speaker 4 (14:44):
Welcome back in Clay Travis Buck Sexton Show. Appreciate all
of you hanging out with us. So we went to
break Buck. I was telling you, I've got a question.
I don't know if Tim Scott is the answer or not.
I'm curious if you even buy into the thesis idea
here I believe, and this is what a lot of
my book is about that's coming out in August. Identity
(15:05):
politics is the single greatest threat to America today.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
That is the idea.
Speaker 4 (15:11):
And this is I understand a lot of you have
a lot of ideas about different threats. But to me,
the idea that you should be defined in some way
by your race, by your gender, by your sexuality, by
things that by and large, in my opinion, you don't
choose right is and that that defines you in some
(15:34):
way is the antithesis of what a robust republic, what
a robust country needs to look like, because we can
agree or disagree on issues, But when you begin your
argument with as a black gay woman, I believe why
should I care about the black, the gay or the woman.
(15:55):
And by the way, you shouldn't care about my opinion
because I'm a straight white guy. You care about my
opinion because it's a good opinion or a bad opinion
based on the facts and the evidence that.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
I'm marshal to argue.
Speaker 4 (16:07):
So my point on Tim Scott buck is, does Tim
Scott if he were.
Speaker 1 (16:13):
To rise to a level of success, does he.
Speaker 4 (16:17):
Blow up identity politics or does he further identity politics?
Because then you're playing, in some way the left's game
based on his success. Right, does that make any sense?
Speaker 5 (16:31):
Like?
Speaker 1 (16:31):
So, I think the really tough, tough debate the reality
of Republican politics for let's say the last twenty years,
is you are fighting over whether you're going to get
seven percent or nine percent of the black vote in
this country. You're never going to break through Beyoncey getting
ten to eleven twelve percent. I mean that would be
(16:54):
absolutely overperforming based on historical numbers. And what you also
see is that take this as an example, how did
I remember you and I talked about this, how did
the black vote break down in Georgia when herschel Walker
was going up against Warnock. Warnock, you got summed, Yeah, oh, overwhelmingly,
(17:16):
got absolutely crushed. There was I'm sorry Walker cut smoke,
absolutely crushed, and the black vote was essentially what it
had been in previous elections. So Black Republicans do not
get the you know, they don't get additional votes because
of identity politics. The question about whether it will, I
(17:36):
think it effectively leaves it unchanged because the left's argument is,
as we know from what they said about Larry Elder
in California, if you aren't if you are black and
you are not in line with the Democrat left, the
remember what Joe Biden said. Can we get that audio
from the breakfast club what the president said? Remember this, Yeah,
if you don't vote for me, you ain't black. That's
(17:59):
what Joe Biden set everybody. So that's why we see
the politics the way we do.
Speaker 4 (18:05):
Go ahead, Clinton, I'm a little bit more optimistic, but
I think it's such an interesting debate about how do
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Speaker 1 (18:58):
Do it today, Welcome back to Clay and Buck. So
we're talking about the entry entrance into the primary campaign
here for Tim Scott, and we're also talking about the
imminent possibility of the well I think inevitability of DeSantis
(19:21):
entering as well. Some of you have called in about
Senator Scott Well, we'll take those calls at the back
part back half of this hour, So stay with us
if you can be patient. We want to hear from
you South Carolinians who have views on this one and
shed Look, people generally follow their own senator more closely
than other people do across the country, especially if he's
(19:42):
been in your state a long time and somebody who's
who's known in state better than than outside the state.
So we always like to leverage that institutional knowledge, if
you will, or that historical knowledge of these different candidates
from places all across the country when you have been
living in that state a long time. All right, First off,
we talked about this audio and it's so Clay and
(20:06):
I are discussing this would Tim Scott if he were
now I've just need clarity on this one. We didn't
talk about this, but I'm saying, do you think that
he I am highly confident that Tim Scott as a
vice president does not change noticeably in any way that
affects the twenty twenty four election the black vote in
(20:28):
this country, just based on what's happened in previous elections.
Are you talking about him as a VP changing where
the votes might be or as the nominee? The nominee
I could see you know, obviously the nominee is a
different situation. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (20:45):
So this is to me again utterly fascinating. And my
goal is to destroy identity politics. Right, So I spend
lots of time, which embarrassingly, in my free time if
I'm sitting watching a Little League game and you know
you're just sitting there watching, like in your head just
kind of running. I spent a lot of time thinking
about how do we blow up identity politics because I
think it's the most toxic aspect. I think it's directly
(21:05):
connected to cancel culture. I think it's the most toxic
thing that exists in American body politic today. And so
you mentioned Herschel and Warnock, and I campaigned as hard
as I could for Herschel because I thought Republicans taking
back the Senate was important. I thought Herschel fighting back
and winning Georgia in that way after losing two Senate
seats would be a big deal. What the data reflected
(21:27):
on black voters in Georgia was actually somewhat interesting. Herschel
didn't lose because of black voters. Actually, the turnout for
black voters was lower in Georgia than anyone anticipated. In fact,
the Warnock. People thought that they were in trouble there,
so black voters, a lot of them stayed home. In Georgia,
Herschel lost because of suburban white voters. College educated women
(21:50):
in particular overwhelmingly supported Warnock, even split their tickets, voted
for Brian Kemp, who won by almost eight points over
Stacy Abrams, and voted four Warnock. So my thought is
as VP, I agree with you. I'm going to keep
beating this drum. The VP has to be for the Republicans,
in my opinion, someone who can deliver a state. That's
(22:11):
why I keep saying Brian Kemp, he delivers Georgia. If
you thought Glenn Youngkin did heck, if you thought Snunu
in New Hampshire. If you thought our buddy Ron Johnson
in Wisconsin. If you thought somebody in a toss up
state Carrie Lake, if she had won, maybe still in Arizona,
I don't know. If you thought somebody in a toss
up state could deliver his VP, that has to be
the pick. I do think though, that if you had
(22:35):
Tim Scott running against Joe Biden, and this is a
really fascinating question, I think that a lot of black
voters would support Tim Scott over Joe Biden relative to
historic norms, in particular black men, who I think are persuadable.
If you look at the data, black women overwhelmingly are
the most loyal portion of the Democrat party. Buckets. Why
(22:58):
Joe Biden when he won in South Carolina, promised that
he was going to put a black woman, which is
racist and sexist, on the Supreme Court, and eliminated everyone
else from consideration. But black men are persuadable, I believe.
Speaker 3 (23:12):
So.
Speaker 4 (23:12):
I think you have to look at the black vote
and say, it's actually two different dynamics. Black men vote
if you have a good candidate, sometimes twenty twenty five
percent for the Republican. Black women are like ninety eight
percent voting for the Democrat no matter what.
Speaker 1 (23:27):
So I don't have a gender breakdown, but I was
able to pull up the data for the because to
your point, war knock against Walker, you have two black
men running against each other for that. Okay, I mean
so I kind of argument had been a discussion. The
discussion had been, well, you know, people would be more
comfortable who maybe were thinking they're centrists or you know, independence,
maybe they'd you know, black voters might be more comfortable
(23:49):
with Herschel. We didn't see that at all, But that's
a different situation. You got two black guys in California,
Larry Elder against Gavin Newsom in the recall. Gavin Newsom
got and now this is Gavin news that we're talking about,
and a very poorly run state. He got eighty four
percent of the black vote, so five or six points
(24:13):
went Larry's way in the state of California with its
you know, almost forty million people or whatever.
Speaker 4 (24:18):
So I mean it's it's twenty. Democrats can't win. If
you ever got the black vote to eighty twenty, what
did you say, eighty four sixteen in California, which doesn't
have that big of a black population. I think California
only has like a twelve It was eight percent of
the overall electorate in California, Yeah, so pretty small. But
if you got nationwide ever to eighty twenty, just eighty twenty,
(24:43):
Democrat coalition does not work. And that's where I think
the race baiting would fall apart and identity politics would crumble.
Is the right Republican candidate? I think, and I.
Speaker 1 (24:54):
Understand some of you out there like it will never happen.
Like I'm an optimist.
Speaker 4 (24:57):
I think the right Republican candidate could get to eighty
twenty in twenty twenty four against Joe Biden. And if
you got to eighty twenty, that's like landslide numbers.
Speaker 1 (25:06):
You also have to keep in mind that obviously the
numbers are not static for all the other demographics. Right,
So if let's say you have a Tim Scott, you
have it. You know, Tim Scott is the nominee. What
do work in class Hispanic voters think of his policies
visa the other Republican right, I mean it's it's not
as clear as you know, everything stays exactly exactly where
(25:27):
it is. Trump got I think it was eight is
that right? Eight percent? This is from memory now of
the black vote in twenty twenty, so it was ninety
two percent when for Joe Biden something like that, which.
Speaker 4 (25:38):
Is maybe correct. I'm not sure I did it. I
did a deep dive on the analytics. The truth is
Trump gained in all minority voters in twenty twenty despite
being called racist for four years. Yeah, I mean the
the there was a major effort under the Trump administration,
and the first step Act was a part of this.
And some of you may have seen over the weekend
(25:59):
that someone who was pardoned by Obama I believe, not
by Trump under the clemency and leniency in policing or
in incarceration, just went well, went and murdered somebody on
the highway. So somebody who we were told was locked up.
It was no danger to society that the Obama administration
that President Obama himself pardoned, and there was a lot
(26:20):
of discussion about it. Killed someone, shot someone in the head.
So it's not as straightforward as we've all learned. Oh,
there's too much mass incarceration. We needed less of this.
Speaker 1 (26:30):
The Trump administration decided that a way to win a
larger percentage of the minority vote in this country was
with the First Step Act. And by the way, I
believe Tim Scott was very favorable for the First Step Act.
I'd have to go back and check again. We're doing
a lot of talking here and my memory is not perfect,
(26:53):
but the First Step Act is we know did not
change in any meaningful way. As a policy, the black
vote for Donald Trump didn't work right, didn't work. So
on the policy side of things, we saw failure to
get more of the black vote in twenty twenty. On
the identity politics side of things is what you're talking about, right,
(27:13):
If you had a charismatic, inspiring, you know, just respected
across the board politician like Tim Scott, would that move
the needle to your point to the you got to get.
I'd have to check the numbers. Sixteen seventeen, eighteen percent
of the black votation wide and then you win. Maybe
(27:36):
maybe you know.
Speaker 4 (27:37):
And the other question about this buck is turnout motivation
on both sides, because what I was saying about the
thing that was interesting about herschel versus Warnock is having
two black guys running and a black woman on the
ticket as governor. The expectation was that black voter turnout
would skyrocket, right because you have three of the four
biggest offices that are for the twenty twenty two being
(28:02):
run with minority black candidates. Instead, the opposite happened. The
turnout as a share of the overall electorate went down.
How much of and this is psychological too, how much
of seeing yourself represented and it becoming more commonplace actually
makes you less likely as a black voter to be
as engaged on voting for the black candidate. In other words,
(28:24):
Obama as the first black presidential candidate, big story. It
didn't make a difference for Corey Booker, it didn't make
a difference for Kamala Harris. Both of those guys and
gals got absolutely crushed in the Republic in the Democrat primary.
So that's what we're thinking about, because a big part
of Trump and everything kind of circles back to twenty
(28:44):
twenty four is does Trump bring out certain low propensity
voters who will cast votes for Republicans?
Speaker 1 (28:52):
Yes? Does he also do the same for Democrats? Yes?
Speaker 4 (28:56):
And to what extent does Trump motivate turnout on both sides?
And how much of that is a negative versus a
positive in terms of winning elections. People didn't vote for Biden,
as we've said, they voted against Trump. How would that
play out for somebody like Tim Scott? I think that's
intriguing too.
Speaker 1 (29:13):
Tomorrow morning at ten am Eastern, that's right, tomorrow morning,
my friends joined me for an exclusive online interview with
an amazing market analyst, Mason Sexton. If the name is familiar,
that's because he also happens to be my dad. We'll
be talking about the Great Disruption of twenty twenty three.
Dad's a Harvard Business School graduate and he worked on
Wall Street for over fifty years. He translated this into
(29:36):
a successful market timing service. He received worldwide attention for
his prediction of the nineteen eighty seven stock market crash,
and then went on to make many other incredibly accurate
and timely market calls. Here are some of the quotes
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Mason's coming forward again after advising hedge funds private behind
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Speaker 4 (30:25):
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Speaker 4 (30:35):
Welcome back in Clay Travis buck Sexton show. We were
talking about the fact that it feels as if many
people who are entering the Republican race are auditioning to
be Donald Trump's vice president and if not his vice president,
secretary of Treasury, secretary of State, that they're they're interested
(30:55):
in being in the administration and the old it's I
want you guys to just pay attention to what's going
on here. The only person that has gone into the
Republican race that Donald Trump has actually attacked is Ron Decantis.
Speaker 1 (31:10):
That's it.
Speaker 4 (31:11):
Here's what Donald Trump had to say in the last
few minutes about Tim Scott entering. Good luck to Senator
Tim Scott in entering the Republican presidential primary race. It
is rapidly loading up with lots of people, and Tim
is a big step up from Ron dysanctimonious, who is
(31:33):
totally unelectable. I got opportunity zones done with Tim, a
big deal that has been highly successful. Good luck Tim,
exclamation point right. That is Donald Trump's reaction. This is
a Trump race, This is a Trump to santisfied and
we all know it. And all these other candidates are
not going to be the president unless something dramatic happens
(31:56):
that I know, no one can really predict the future
of politics. But the things by the way that I
checked out while we were in the break, I was
I was actually far too generous toward Well, you look
at the there were a lot of.
Speaker 1 (32:10):
Candidates in the recall in California. Gavin Newsom got eighty
four percent of the black vote personally, there were other
candidates beside Larry Elder who were also on that recall ballot.
So when you look at the number of Democrats, it's
like ninety ninety two percent. And then you look at
Lindsey Graham versus Tim Scott, and they weren't running, you know,
(32:31):
against each other. But Tim Scott got two percent more
of the black vote in South Carolina than Lindsay Graham
did two percent in his home state. So it has
just been these numbers have been immovable four years. That
doesn't mean they're not movable. That doesn't mean that the
identity politics got.
Speaker 4 (32:48):
Run against Do we know is it another black candidate
that Again, this is we're doing data on the fly here.
It's it's challenged. I know, Lindsay Graham ran against a
black candidate for because they spent fifty million dollars or
whatever the heck it was to try to flip the
Lindsey Graham seat in South Carolina. And the reason why,
(33:10):
the identity politics thing I think that has not been
tested that often is what happens if a black Republican
runs against a white Democrat. Now it's in California, Larry Elder,
but it was exactly Larry Elder is. To be fair,
(33:31):
I think you know, a conservative talk radio host in
a state that doesn't have that high of a black population.
I just I am just curious if you had if
herschel Walker had been running against I don't know, like
asoff right the white guy, what would that have looked
(33:51):
like in terms of the numbers. And again, part of
the data here is just looking at the overall electorate
and analyzing it. Trump lost in twenty twenty not because
of the black vote. The black vote was actually down.
Trump lost because suburban white women hate him, all right.
Speaker 1 (34:09):
That's the truth.
Speaker 4 (34:10):
And my biggest thing on Trump as you move towards
twenty twenty four is how do you persuade suburban white
women that Trump is not the devil? Because they turned
on him in a big way.
Speaker 1 (34:21):
Trump. Trump didn't do well enough with white women, for sure,
white suburban women, white working class voters in Russ Belt states,
and college in general, college educated white voters as well.
Now that those were the underperformance areas relative to twenty sixteen,
which I think is the important metric to look at, right, like,
he's got their other places where a Republican's gonna have
(34:43):
a tough time. Do you want to take We've got
a couple of people from South Carolina. You want to
let let our folks weigh in here? Got Denise in Columbia,
South Carolina? How you doing?
Speaker 2 (34:52):
I'm great, but carry you, I would, Clay and.
Speaker 1 (34:54):
I are fantastic, Denise. What's on your mind?
Speaker 2 (34:57):
Well, I just had a few things too soon. Scott.
He is incredibly one of the best senators we've had
in South Carolina. And my main concern is, like you
were just discussing about Lindsey Graham the fifty million dollars,
I would be worried that they would try to do
that again in South Carolina and point in cases Jacksonville.
Speaker 4 (35:18):
You mean you mean you mean if Tim Scott were
not your senator, that there would be a lot of
money spent to try to replace him. Is that what
you're trying to say?
Speaker 2 (35:26):
Absolutely? Absolutely?
Speaker 6 (35:30):
Yeah, uh well, I mean more in case you know, Jacksonville,
Florida just elected their first mayor Democrat mayor and and
as you'll know, a lot of people have been escaped
into South Carolina.
Speaker 7 (35:43):
Liten.
Speaker 1 (35:44):
Yeah, thank you for calling in, Denise Barry from Columbia.
South Carolina's got another Tim Scott take How you doing Berry?
Speaker 7 (35:51):
Good? How are you? Thanks for taking the call? The
issue of Tim Scott. You know this is an honorable man.
Now I just heard that he's black. Well okay, I'm lying,
(36:11):
but you know, I mean.
Speaker 1 (36:14):
You like you like the idea of these running You
think he can be president?
Speaker 7 (36:18):
I think he can be president.
Speaker 1 (36:20):
All right, thank you, Berry, thank you for calling in.
We had to get to Berry with the music means,
unfortunately the end of the hours here, so we had
to bounce. Apologies for that play. What what kind of
a wild, insightful and fun ride are you taking us
on to the next the next hour? We got so
many topics we were thinking about getting to where we
do have a table.
Speaker 4 (36:40):
There's a great front page story on bud Light and
the collapse there.
Speaker 1 (36:43):
Also, I want to talk.
Speaker 4 (36:45):
We did, we were gonna mention it, but this NUA
ACP boycott Yes Florida is among the most ridiculous stories
that I have seen in some time. We'll discuss both
and what they represent when we come back for hour two.
Welcome to today's edition of The Clay Travis and Buck
Sexton Show podcast. Monday edition. Clay and Buck kicks off
right now. Everybody, thank you for being here with us.
We missed you over the weekend. We trust you are
ready for action today. Relaxed after a couple of days
away from the show. We've got a lot to discuss
(00:20):
with all of you. Bud Light continues to tank, and
we keep saying, I mean, they just really need to
apologize and spend some money on conservative shows and maybe
things will turn around for them. But they won't do it.
We'll get into a little bit more of that.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
You have.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
The New York City mayor is calling for migrants to
be sent to every US city across the country. This
is always fascinating Democrats say migrants are and where they
say migrants. Just to be very clear, they're not talking
about immigrants who come here legally. Illegal aliens was the
term we were all using until about five minutes ago.
(01:02):
Illegal aliens build this country, make us all richer, and
make everything better. But somehow they're a huge financial drain
on New York City such that New York City needs
to send them to other places because they can't afford them.
That's an interesting situation, isn't it? Also Eric Adams, as
you notice, I've got a lot of New York on
my mind these days. Eric Adams has a new planet
(01:24):
combat retail theft, which is a massive, massive, millions and
millions of dollars problem in New York City. An update
on the Epstein Jeffrey Epstein situation involving Bill Gates in
the Wall Street Journal that I thought was interesting. I
want to talk to you. We haven't spoken much, Clay,
and I haven't talked to you a lot about Epstein's
(01:45):
case and how there is still a lot that is
unresolved there. There's a lot that we are told to
accept that many of us say that is unacceptable, meaning
we don't have proper answers, we don't have what we need.
So we'll get into that. A shooting in Memphis, Tennessee
that had a lot of people particularly fired up over
(02:07):
the weekend because the homeowner, defending himself, his home, and
his family from incoming fire, was arrested at his facing
charges from the Soros back DA in Memphis, Tennessee. So
returning fire now can get you locked up. We'll explain
that one later on. Oh, one more thing the NAACP
(02:31):
is telling is telling people don't go to Florida. They're saying,
don't go to Florida, the state where the biggest problem.
Here you go, if you travel to Florida, be where
your life is not valuable. Play that audio for you later.
But the state where the biggest problem is no one
is able to afford houses in the biggest cities because
(02:51):
of supply and demand, because everyone is moving to Florida.
They're saying, no, don't go, your life is not valued.
But let's start with this. Clay always like to focus
in on politics. The primary feels like the primary is
underway now, you know, it feels like we're really starting
to enter that phase where this is going to be
a dominant theme, a dominant situation day to day in
(03:13):
American politics. Tim Scott, the Senator, a senator from South Carolina,
just formally announced he is in this fight. Here is
just from a few moments ago, the Senator from South Carolina.
Play it.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
They're replacing education within doctrination. They spent COVID locking kids
out of the classroom. And in Biden's America, crime is
on the rise and law enforcement is in retreat. The
far left is Indian cash bails. They're demonizing, demoralizing, and
defunding the police. Joe Biden and the radical left are
(03:49):
attacking every single rung of the ladder that helped me climb.
And that's why I'm announcing today that I'm running part
president off of the United States America.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
A fiery announcement. Sorry I stepped on it for a
second there. Tell me, Clay, what is your first reaction
to I mean, my sense is Senator Scott is very
widely liked in GOP circles. Everyone is like, I like
Senator Scott. He's a good man. What does it mean
for the political race? So I love the way he
(04:32):
announced there.
Speaker 4 (04:33):
It's like he was a macho man Randy Savage or
hold Cogan, like ripping off his shirt to reveal a
US flag underneath or something. Tim Scott, we've had him
on the show a lot. I'm sure we'll have him
on at some point this week enters into a race
that I think it's fair to say buck right now,
there are about five people that most people would recognize
(04:56):
as running for the rate. There's a lot of people
who have entered right but I would say, obviously, Lee Trump,
we expect the Santis.
Speaker 1 (05:02):
The reports were He's going to enter.
Speaker 4 (05:04):
This week as well, Nicki Haley, Tim Scott, and then
maybe Vivik Ramaswami is in that five. We'll see whether
Mike Pence is going to enter. There's been a lot
of talk that suddenly Chris Christy's going to enter. I
am curious most with Tim Scott entering whether he's really
running for president or is he running for vice president,
(05:25):
because if he were running for president, then he would
immediately attack Donald Trump, who is the leader. And I
would say what everybody needs to pay attention to so
far that characterizes this race, Buck, is almost everybody has
gone after Ron DeSantis, the guy who's presumed to be
in second place and isn't even officially in this race,
(05:48):
as opposed to going after Trump. And the reason why
I would point this out is what was the number
one story of twenty sixteen, Buck, When you go look
back at the Republican primary nineteen eighteen, whatever it was,
nineteen people enter and everybody thinks Trump's gonna fade. I
just need to get it down to me versus Trump,
(06:09):
and then what happened? They got it down to me
versus Trump, and instead of Trump falling back and the
counter puncher being the nominee, Trump just surged even more
into a more prominent spot. And the reason I bring
this up is, so long as everybody is attacking DeSantis
(06:30):
as opposed to Trump, what it means to me, Buck
is everybody's actually angling to try to be vice president,
or they're angling to be in the Trump administration more
than they want to be president. Now, Tim Scott has
a compelling story. I agree with much of what he says.
He is really selling the idea of the Barack Obama
(06:52):
sund sold in two thousand and eight, which is America
is a redemptive, incredibly successful country where any kid that's
born today can grow up to be president of the
United States. And that is to me what Tim Scott's
ultimate message is, whether you get into the nitty gritty
of his politics, his message is America is an exceptional place,
(07:13):
the greatest, freest country in the history of the world.
And my life story is evidence of the American dream
and what is possible here. And so I think that's
very compelling. The question I have, and I'm curious what
you would say to this, is is he actually running
for president or is he running for vice president?
Speaker 1 (07:31):
I think he's running for vice president. Yeah, And I
don't mean that in any to be dismissive or disrespectful
of the idea that we don't know because we don't, Okay,
no one really knows where this prime area is going
to go and if but running for vice president for
someone like Tim Scott makes a lot of if you're
(07:51):
a strategist for him, makes a lot of sense, right,
especially if it's for Trump, because you know you're on
the launch pad. My friend, you're your four years. If
Trump wins, you got four And but it's not even
four years. Within two years of Trump's second term, tim
Scott would be gearing up for his own presidential run.
So it's a very different vice presidential slot now with
(08:14):
a term limited second term president, then it would have
been if you're running, you know, if you're running to
be someone's VP for possibly eight years, like Joe Biden
was for Barack Obama, that's a long time now. I
know Biden ended up coming back and winning the presidency,
but there was a once in a century pandemic and
some crazy things happened. So the Tim Scott running for VP.
To me, makes uh that that's the long term play
(08:36):
makes a lot of sense that the places where I
think he could be a little bit vulnerable in the
primary to the degree that I'm not sure. He's again
very a very likable guy who has loves America, you know,
tells us a story of America as a great place.
That so you're gonna have so much connection with him
(08:59):
from even voters in the primary DeSantis voters in the
primary Desantas hasn't announced yet, but we're days away probably
and others. The only place though, if you're going to
see him, I think get some my understand I should
check on the immigration thing. I think he's not great
on immigration from a very conservative or right of center
(09:20):
point of view, my point of view. And also on
the criminal justice reform issue. If you remember, after George Floyd,
he was we need to talk about police reform, and
I was shouting in June and twenty twenty about this
isn't about police reform. There are people rioting in the streets.
They don't care about police reform. This is something else,
This is ominous, this is wrong. So he was on
(09:41):
the wrong side of that issue in the beginning. Now
did he get better? Sure, that's a place where I
could see him getting some criticism. If anyone out there,
and I really mean this, we've got a lot of
South Carolinians who it's fun to say Carolinian, a lot
of South Carolinians who listened to the show. If you
think Tim Scott could go the disc stance, or if
you just want to want to weigh in, maybe you
(10:03):
don't think Tim Scott should be running at all, Maybe you're
not a eage fan eight under two A two two
eight A two Clay. We've got that. But we've also
got in addition to the Tim Scott announcement, we have
a likely Ron DeSantis announcement coming later this week. And
can I just throw this into the mix. I want
ever to listen very closely. This was over the weekend.
(10:26):
So when Ron is talking to Governor Florida talking about COVID,
what he says about say the vaccines and warp speed
and the language he uses play clip one.
Speaker 5 (10:38):
The way they weaponized these COVID vacsas was a massive
incursion into our freedoms. They wanted to deny people the
right to put food on their table if they didn't
bend the knee and get a COVID shot that they
may not have wanted and that many of them did
not need. We can never allow warp speed to trump
(11:00):
informed consent in this country ever.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
Again that line, Clay, we can never allow warp speed
to trump informed consent. We all understand what he's doing here.
He's calling out warp speed because this is one This
is I can't think of a place where the Trump
base is more uncertain of Trump honestly on policy than
(11:26):
on his I still think warp speed was amazing and
saved you know, one hundred million lives line, and I
think Ron's going after it here early.
Speaker 4 (11:34):
Yeah, that's where Trump is caught between the reality of
the results of the COVID shot. It's basically worthless, let's
be honest, by and large in terms of anything, it
is truly worth his clay, because they're throwing it out
now all over the world basically, and every school and
university that made such a big deal about the fact
(11:54):
that kids had to get the shot and then also
be boosted, they're quietly removing the COVID shot from their
list of vaccine requirements. And for anybody out there who
remembers going into college and the shots requirement. You have
to have the vaccine immunology as a part of being admitted.
You probably remember having to submit something there. To my knowledge,
(12:15):
they've never pulled a shot off of that list in
most of our lives. So the fact that they're just
suddenly now quietly, all of these schools which were so
draconian about getting the shot, they're suddenly pulling it back.
Let you know what's going on. I think it's an
area or remember, strategically, Desantus is attacking Trump from the right.
(12:37):
Nobody's ever really gone after Trump because Trump has typically
had a lot of support on the right side of
the political equation, at least in the last six years
or so. And I think the single most vulnerable part
of Trump's twenty twenty four candidacy is potentially his argument
that the COVID shot was a success. Now that actually
(13:02):
might play well in a general election, though buck ironically
for Trump, because there are a lot of middle of
the road voters who want to believe that they didn't
get completely snookered, that that COVID shot really was a success.
And so this is one of those angles where look,
DeSantis is more right wing on abortion than Trump is.
(13:22):
Trump in some ways is almost running a general election
campaign in the Republican primary. I think that's interesting. Let's
also talk a little bit more about Tim Scott. We
got back, come back, because I've got a theory on
Tim Scott. I'm curious if you buy it or not. Buck,
We'll talk about that when we come back. In the meantime.
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Speaker 1 (14:37):
Helping you separate truth from fiction and every single weekday
the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show.
Speaker 4 (14:44):
Welcome back in Clay Travis Buck Sexton Show. Appreciate all
of you hanging out with us. So we went to
break Buck. I was telling you, I've got a question.
I don't know if Tim Scott is the answer or not.
I'm curious if you even buy into the thesis idea
here I believe, and this is what a lot of
my book is about that's coming out in August. Identity
(15:05):
politics is the single greatest threat to America today.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
That is the idea.
Speaker 4 (15:11):
And this is I understand a lot of you have
a lot of ideas about different threats. But to me,
the idea that you should be defined in some way
by your race, by your gender, by your sexuality, by
things that by and large, in my opinion, you don't
choose right is and that that defines you in some
(15:34):
way is the antithesis of what a robust republic, what
a robust country needs to look like, because we can
agree or disagree on issues, But when you begin your
argument with as a black gay woman, I believe why
should I care about the black, the gay or the woman.
(15:55):
And by the way, you shouldn't care about my opinion
because I'm a straight white guy. You care about my
opinion because it's a good opinion or a bad opinion
based on the facts and the evidence that.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
I'm marshal to argue.
Speaker 4 (16:07):
So my point on Tim Scott buck is, does Tim
Scott if he were.
Speaker 1 (16:13):
To rise to a level of success, does he.
Speaker 4 (16:17):
Blow up identity politics or does he further identity politics?
Because then you're playing, in some way the left's game
based on his success. Right, does that make any sense?
Speaker 5 (16:31):
Like?
Speaker 1 (16:31):
So, I think the really tough, tough debate the reality
of Republican politics for let's say the last twenty years,
is you are fighting over whether you're going to get
seven percent or nine percent of the black vote in
this country. You're never going to break through Beyoncey getting
ten to eleven twelve percent. I mean that would be
(16:54):
absolutely overperforming based on historical numbers. And what you also
see is that take this as an example, how did
I remember you and I talked about this, how did
the black vote break down in Georgia when herschel Walker
was going up against Warnock. Warnock, you got summed, Yeah, oh, overwhelmingly,
(17:16):
got absolutely crushed. There was I'm sorry Walker cut smoke,
absolutely crushed, and the black vote was essentially what it
had been in previous elections. So Black Republicans do not
get the you know, they don't get additional votes because
of identity politics. The question about whether it will, I
(17:36):
think it effectively leaves it unchanged because the left's argument is,
as we know from what they said about Larry Elder
in California, if you aren't if you are black and
you are not in line with the Democrat left, the
remember what Joe Biden said. Can we get that audio
from the breakfast club what the president said? Remember this, Yeah,
if you don't vote for me, you ain't black. That's
(17:59):
what Joe Biden set everybody. So that's why we see
the politics the way we do.
Speaker 4 (18:05):
Go ahead, Clinton, I'm a little bit more optimistic, but
I think it's such an interesting debate about how do
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Speaker 1 (18:58):
Do it today, Welcome back to Clay and Buck. So
we're talking about the entry entrance into the primary campaign
here for Tim Scott, and we're also talking about the
imminent possibility of the well I think inevitability of DeSantis
(19:21):
entering as well. Some of you have called in about
Senator Scott Well, we'll take those calls at the back
part back half of this hour, So stay with us
if you can be patient. We want to hear from
you South Carolinians who have views on this one and
shed Look, people generally follow their own senator more closely
than other people do across the country, especially if he's
(19:42):
been in your state a long time and somebody who's
who's known in state better than than outside the state.
So we always like to leverage that institutional knowledge, if
you will, or that historical knowledge of these different candidates
from places all across the country when you have been
living in that state a long time. All right, First off,
we talked about this audio and it's so Clay and
(20:06):
I are discussing this would Tim Scott if he were
now I've just need clarity on this one. We didn't
talk about this, but I'm saying, do you think that
he I am highly confident that Tim Scott as a
vice president does not change noticeably in any way that
affects the twenty twenty four election the black vote in
(20:28):
this country, just based on what's happened in previous elections.
Are you talking about him as a VP changing where
the votes might be or as the nominee? The nominee
I could see you know, obviously the nominee is a
different situation. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (20:45):
So this is to me again utterly fascinating. And my
goal is to destroy identity politics. Right, So I spend
lots of time, which embarrassingly, in my free time if
I'm sitting watching a Little League game and you know
you're just sitting there watching, like in your head just
kind of running. I spent a lot of time thinking
about how do we blow up identity politics because I
think it's the most toxic aspect. I think it's directly
(21:05):
connected to cancel culture. I think it's the most toxic
thing that exists in American body politic today. And so
you mentioned Herschel and Warnock, and I campaigned as hard
as I could for Herschel because I thought Republicans taking
back the Senate was important. I thought Herschel fighting back
and winning Georgia in that way after losing two Senate
seats would be a big deal. What the data reflected
(21:27):
on black voters in Georgia was actually somewhat interesting. Herschel
didn't lose because of black voters. Actually, the turnout for
black voters was lower in Georgia than anyone anticipated. In fact,
the Warnock. People thought that they were in trouble there,
so black voters, a lot of them stayed home. In Georgia,
Herschel lost because of suburban white voters. College educated women
(21:50):
in particular overwhelmingly supported Warnock, even split their tickets, voted
for Brian Kemp, who won by almost eight points over
Stacy Abrams, and voted four Warnock. So my thought is
as VP, I agree with you. I'm going to keep
beating this drum. The VP has to be for the Republicans,
in my opinion, someone who can deliver a state. That's
(22:11):
why I keep saying Brian Kemp, he delivers Georgia. If
you thought Glenn Youngkin did heck, if you thought Snunu
in New Hampshire. If you thought our buddy Ron Johnson
in Wisconsin. If you thought somebody in a toss up
state Carrie Lake, if she had won, maybe still in Arizona,
I don't know. If you thought somebody in a toss
up state could deliver his VP, that has to be
the pick. I do think though, that if you had
(22:35):
Tim Scott running against Joe Biden, and this is a
really fascinating question, I think that a lot of black
voters would support Tim Scott over Joe Biden relative to
historic norms, in particular black men, who I think are persuadable.
If you look at the data, black women overwhelmingly are
the most loyal portion of the Democrat party. Buckets. Why
(22:58):
Joe Biden when he won in South Carolina, promised that
he was going to put a black woman, which is
racist and sexist, on the Supreme Court, and eliminated everyone
else from consideration. But black men are persuadable, I believe.
Speaker 3 (23:12):
So.
Speaker 4 (23:12):
I think you have to look at the black vote
and say, it's actually two different dynamics. Black men vote
if you have a good candidate, sometimes twenty twenty five
percent for the Republican. Black women are like ninety eight
percent voting for the Democrat no matter what.
Speaker 1 (23:27):
So I don't have a gender breakdown, but I was
able to pull up the data for the because to
your point, war knock against Walker, you have two black
men running against each other for that. Okay, I mean
so I kind of argument had been a discussion. The
discussion had been, well, you know, people would be more
comfortable who maybe were thinking they're centrists or you know, independence,
maybe they'd you know, black voters might be more comfortable
(23:49):
with Herschel. We didn't see that at all, But that's
a different situation. You got two black guys in California,
Larry Elder against Gavin Newsom in the recall. Gavin Newsom
got and now this is Gavin news that we're talking about,
and a very poorly run state. He got eighty four
percent of the black vote, so five or six points
(24:13):
went Larry's way in the state of California with its
you know, almost forty million people or whatever.
Speaker 4 (24:18):
So I mean it's it's twenty. Democrats can't win. If
you ever got the black vote to eighty twenty, what
did you say, eighty four sixteen in California, which doesn't
have that big of a black population. I think California
only has like a twelve It was eight percent of
the overall electorate in California, Yeah, so pretty small. But
if you got nationwide ever to eighty twenty, just eighty twenty,
(24:43):
Democrat coalition does not work. And that's where I think
the race baiting would fall apart and identity politics would crumble.
Is the right Republican candidate? I think, and I.
Speaker 1 (24:54):
Understand some of you out there like it will never happen.
Like I'm an optimist.
Speaker 4 (24:57):
I think the right Republican candidate could get to eighty
twenty in twenty twenty four against Joe Biden. And if
you got to eighty twenty, that's like landslide numbers.
Speaker 1 (25:06):
You also have to keep in mind that obviously the
numbers are not static for all the other demographics. Right,
So if let's say you have a Tim Scott, you
have it. You know, Tim Scott is the nominee. What
do work in class Hispanic voters think of his policies
visa the other Republican right, I mean it's it's not
as clear as you know, everything stays exactly exactly where
(25:27):
it is. Trump got I think it was eight is
that right? Eight percent? This is from memory now of
the black vote in twenty twenty, so it was ninety
two percent when for Joe Biden something like that, which.
Speaker 4 (25:38):
Is maybe correct. I'm not sure I did it. I
did a deep dive on the analytics. The truth is
Trump gained in all minority voters in twenty twenty despite
being called racist for four years. Yeah, I mean the
the there was a major effort under the Trump administration,
and the first step Act was a part of this.
And some of you may have seen over the weekend
(25:59):
that someone who was pardoned by Obama I believe, not
by Trump under the clemency and leniency in policing or
in incarceration, just went well, went and murdered somebody on
the highway. So somebody who we were told was locked up.
It was no danger to society that the Obama administration
that President Obama himself pardoned, and there was a lot
(26:20):
of discussion about it. Killed someone, shot someone in the head.
So it's not as straightforward as we've all learned. Oh,
there's too much mass incarceration. We needed less of this.
Speaker 1 (26:30):
The Trump administration decided that a way to win a
larger percentage of the minority vote in this country was
with the First Step Act. And by the way, I
believe Tim Scott was very favorable for the First Step Act.
I'd have to go back and check again. We're doing
a lot of talking here and my memory is not perfect,
(26:53):
but the First Step Act is we know did not
change in any meaningful way. As a policy, the black
vote for Donald Trump didn't work right, didn't work. So
on the policy side of things, we saw failure to
get more of the black vote in twenty twenty. On
the identity politics side of things is what you're talking about, right,
(27:13):
If you had a charismatic, inspiring, you know, just respected
across the board politician like Tim Scott, would that move
the needle to your point to the you got to get.
I'd have to check the numbers. Sixteen seventeen, eighteen percent
of the black votation wide and then you win. Maybe
(27:36):
maybe you know.
Speaker 4 (27:37):
And the other question about this buck is turnout motivation
on both sides, because what I was saying about the
thing that was interesting about herschel versus Warnock is having
two black guys running and a black woman on the
ticket as governor. The expectation was that black voter turnout
would skyrocket, right because you have three of the four
biggest offices that are for the twenty twenty two being
(28:02):
run with minority black candidates. Instead, the opposite happened. The
turnout as a share of the overall electorate went down.
How much of and this is psychological too, how much
of seeing yourself represented and it becoming more commonplace actually
makes you less likely as a black voter to be
as engaged on voting for the black candidate. In other words,
(28:24):
Obama as the first black presidential candidate, big story. It
didn't make a difference for Corey Booker, it didn't make
a difference for Kamala Harris. Both of those guys and
gals got absolutely crushed in the Republic in the Democrat primary.
So that's what we're thinking about, because a big part
of Trump and everything kind of circles back to twenty
(28:44):
twenty four is does Trump bring out certain low propensity
voters who will cast votes for Republicans?
Speaker 1 (28:52):
Yes? Does he also do the same for Democrats? Yes?
Speaker 4 (28:56):
And to what extent does Trump motivate turnout on both sides?
And how much of that is a negative versus a
positive in terms of winning elections. People didn't vote for Biden,
as we've said, they voted against Trump. How would that
play out for somebody like Tim Scott? I think that's
intriguing too.
Speaker 1 (29:13):
Tomorrow morning at ten am Eastern, that's right, tomorrow morning,
my friends joined me for an exclusive online interview with
an amazing market analyst, Mason Sexton. If the name is familiar,
that's because he also happens to be my dad. We'll
be talking about the Great Disruption of twenty twenty three.
Dad's a Harvard Business School graduate and he worked on
Wall Street for over fifty years. He translated this into
(29:36):
a successful market timing service. He received worldwide attention for
his prediction of the nineteen eighty seven stock market crash,
and then went on to make many other incredibly accurate
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from Mason from back in the day. The New York
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Mason's coming forward again after advising hedge funds private behind
(30:00):
the scenes for years, with his first major prediction publicly
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(30:21):
twenty twenty three dot com.
Speaker 4 (30:25):
Don't miss a minute of Clay and Buck and get
behind the scene access to special content.
Speaker 1 (30:30):
For members only. Subscribe to CNB twenty four to seven.
Speaker 4 (30:35):
Welcome back in Clay Travis buck Sexton show. We were
talking about the fact that it feels as if many
people who are entering the Republican race are auditioning to
be Donald Trump's vice president and if not his vice president,
secretary of Treasury, secretary of State, that they're they're interested
(30:55):
in being in the administration and the old it's I
want you guys to just pay attention to what's going
on here. The only person that has gone into the
Republican race that Donald Trump has actually attacked is Ron Decantis.
Speaker 1 (31:10):
That's it.
Speaker 4 (31:11):
Here's what Donald Trump had to say in the last
few minutes about Tim Scott entering. Good luck to Senator
Tim Scott in entering the Republican presidential primary race. It
is rapidly loading up with lots of people, and Tim
is a big step up from Ron dysanctimonious, who is
(31:33):
totally unelectable. I got opportunity zones done with Tim, a
big deal that has been highly successful. Good luck Tim,
exclamation point right. That is Donald Trump's reaction. This is
a Trump race, This is a Trump to santisfied and
we all know it. And all these other candidates are
not going to be the president unless something dramatic happens
(31:56):
that I know, no one can really predict the future
of politics. But the things by the way that I
checked out while we were in the break, I was
I was actually far too generous toward Well, you look
at the there were a lot of.
Speaker 1 (32:10):
Candidates in the recall in California. Gavin Newsom got eighty
four percent of the black vote personally, there were other
candidates beside Larry Elder who were also on that recall ballot.
So when you look at the number of Democrats, it's
like ninety ninety two percent. And then you look at
Lindsey Graham versus Tim Scott, and they weren't running, you know,
(32:31):
against each other. But Tim Scott got two percent more
of the black vote in South Carolina than Lindsay Graham
did two percent in his home state. So it has
just been these numbers have been immovable four years. That
doesn't mean they're not movable. That doesn't mean that the
identity politics got.
Speaker 4 (32:48):
Run against Do we know is it another black candidate
that Again, this is we're doing data on the fly here.
It's it's challenged. I know, Lindsay Graham ran against a
black candidate for because they spent fifty million dollars or
whatever the heck it was to try to flip the
Lindsey Graham seat in South Carolina. And the reason why,
(33:10):
the identity politics thing I think that has not been
tested that often is what happens if a black Republican
runs against a white Democrat. Now it's in California, Larry Elder,
but it was exactly Larry Elder is. To be fair,
(33:31):
I think you know, a conservative talk radio host in
a state that doesn't have that high of a black population.
I just I am just curious if you had if
herschel Walker had been running against I don't know, like
asoff right the white guy, what would that have looked
(33:51):
like in terms of the numbers. And again, part of
the data here is just looking at the overall electorate
and analyzing it. Trump lost in twenty twenty not because
of the black vote. The black vote was actually down.
Trump lost because suburban white women hate him, all right.
Speaker 1 (34:09):
That's the truth.
Speaker 4 (34:10):
And my biggest thing on Trump as you move towards
twenty twenty four is how do you persuade suburban white
women that Trump is not the devil? Because they turned
on him in a big way.
Speaker 1 (34:21):
Trump. Trump didn't do well enough with white women, for sure,
white suburban women, white working class voters in Russ Belt states,
and college in general, college educated white voters as well.
Now that those were the underperformance areas relative to twenty sixteen,
which I think is the important metric to look at, right, like,
he's got their other places where a Republican's gonna have
(34:43):
a tough time. Do you want to take We've got
a couple of people from South Carolina. You want to
let let our folks weigh in here? Got Denise in Columbia,
South Carolina? How you doing?
Speaker 2 (34:52):
I'm great, but carry you, I would, Clay and.
Speaker 1 (34:54):
I are fantastic, Denise. What's on your mind?
Speaker 2 (34:57):
Well, I just had a few things too soon. Scott.
He is incredibly one of the best senators we've had
in South Carolina. And my main concern is, like you
were just discussing about Lindsey Graham the fifty million dollars,
I would be worried that they would try to do
that again in South Carolina and point in cases Jacksonville.
Speaker 4 (35:18):
You mean you mean you mean if Tim Scott were
not your senator, that there would be a lot of
money spent to try to replace him. Is that what
you're trying to say?
Speaker 2 (35:26):
Absolutely? Absolutely?
Speaker 6 (35:30):
Yeah, uh well, I mean more in case you know, Jacksonville,
Florida just elected their first mayor Democrat mayor and and
as you'll know, a lot of people have been escaped
into South Carolina.
Speaker 7 (35:43):
Liten.
Speaker 1 (35:44):
Yeah, thank you for calling in, Denise Barry from Columbia.
South Carolina's got another Tim Scott take How you doing Berry?
Speaker 7 (35:51):
Good? How are you? Thanks for taking the call? The
issue of Tim Scott. You know this is an honorable man.
Now I just heard that he's black. Well okay, I'm lying,
(36:11):
but you know, I mean.
Speaker 1 (36:14):
You like you like the idea of these running You
think he can be president?
Speaker 7 (36:18):
I think he can be president.
Speaker 1 (36:20):
All right, thank you, Berry, thank you for calling in.
We had to get to Berry with the music means,
unfortunately the end of the hours here, so we had
to bounce. Apologies for that play. What what kind of
a wild, insightful and fun ride are you taking us
on to the next the next hour? We got so
many topics we were thinking about getting to where we
do have a table.
Speaker 4 (36:40):
There's a great front page story on bud Light and
the collapse there.
Speaker 1 (36:43):
Also, I want to talk.
Speaker 4 (36:45):
We did, we were gonna mention it, but this NUA
ACP boycott Yes Florida is among the most ridiculous stories
that I have seen in some time. We'll discuss both
and what they represent when we come back for hour two.
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