It’s tough to negotiate peace with Russia and Iran, especially because if their lips are moving, they’re probably lying! Lieutenant Colonel James Carafano joins us with reasonable expectations.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Previously on your morning show with Michael del Chuno.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
It's Carafano day. You know where I'm at kitchen table
going with a double espresso today and today's Italian pastry
is a classic Napoleon. Let's go excited about the Carafano
weekly visit. See Lieutenant colonel, you make the great sacrifice
to be with us, and it is appreciated. All right.
(00:25):
So we got the president at one hundred days headed
to Michigan. We think he's got an announcement on a
deal reached on the auto tariffs. Also, he'll be taking
some victory laps over the border. There is unfinished business
in terms of tax cuts and a piece deal with
Russia and Ukraine and a new negotiation with Iram. Let's
get started. This is a very difficult thing to do
(00:45):
because neither are trustworthy. I mean, how do you negotiate
peace with Russian Iran when if their lips are moving,
they're probably lying. What's a reasonable expectation of progress here?
Speaker 3 (00:57):
Yeah, I mean you can just roll the table because
I always say the same thing. I mean, I think
the most reasonable thing is a small deal, which is
just a ceasefire in place. It actually serves the interest
of both sides. Both sides really need a strategic break,
and so that to me is the most likely. Having
(01:23):
said that, it's it really is all up to Vladimir Putin.
Putin tries to get whatever he can, and then when
he realizes it can't get any more, he might cut
a deal.
Speaker 4 (01:34):
So literally, we might just wake up one day and Putin.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
Says, okay, we have a deal, right and then but
he might he might say no, I want to run
the war for another year and see what happens. He
can he can do that. I mean, he can keep fighting.
I mean he's not going to run out of North
Koreans to get killed. If he does that, I think
it's pretty clear that. I don't know, things get better
(01:57):
for him. Look, I don't care what people say. The
United States is not just going to walk away and
abandon Ukraine.
Speaker 4 (02:03):
Trump is not going to do that. He's not that stupid.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
First of all, it's not even it's getting to be
less of a left for us every day because the
Europeans are doing more right. Ukrainians can defend They can't
conquer the whole country and get it back, but they
can defend themselves. It doesn't it's not worth the risk
to abandon Ukraine and have things, you know, the whole
everything in the region fall apart.
Speaker 4 (02:24):
Well, so that's where we are, all.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
Right on that point. Obviously. The first is a video
Donald Trump coming down an escalator. That's what began everything.
Iconic pictures, an assassination attempt, blood coming down the side
of his face with a fist in the air. That's
an iconic presidential picture for our time and for all time.
And I think there's a second iconic picture, and that
(02:47):
is at the Vatican for a funeral of a pope
absolutely sitting on a chair talking with Zelenski. I mean,
you're not just Charlie Schmuckin. That is a fact, Jack.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
But that doesn't Oh no, no no, because I said
that not maybe the iconic picture of the twenty first century.
And what's important about that picture is, let's be honest,
Donald Trump doesn't.
Speaker 4 (03:10):
Like Selinsky personally, he doesn't.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
But Donald Trump is a statesman and we have seen
this again and again and again and again.
Speaker 4 (03:23):
Although people just refuse to acknowledge this.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
Donald Trump puts his personal interests and his personal attitude
aside when he thinks the country has to come first,
So sitting down with Zelensky and coming to a mind
to save the people of Ukraine and end this war,
he'll do that. And he did that, and it just
shows what a great man he absolutely really is. And
(03:48):
the fact that it was in the Vatican, to me
just reminds me this country is blessed because he may
not be the perfect leader.
Speaker 4 (03:58):
He may not be your favorite leader.
Speaker 3 (04:00):
Who has, but God blessed us with a leader who
cares about us.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
What does Vladimir Putin make up that picture?
Speaker 3 (04:08):
And that image? I am so screwed. Just make it
a meme because who's not in the room, right?
Speaker 4 (04:18):
All right?
Speaker 2 (04:18):
But you got him. So Putin's still bombing and he's
still stalling. His foreign secretary says, we're willing to sit
down and negotiate a deal. We still want to be
at the table. YadA, YadA, YadA. All right, that's a
mixed message. It sure looks like Putin's actions tell me
he wants to fight another year, But the overtures from
the Foreign Minister of Russia tells me maybe not just yet.
Speaker 4 (04:44):
I'll tell you, the most interesting clue I had.
Speaker 3 (04:48):
Was the Russians are moving more stuff to the finished border.
Now they've actually been moving stuff away from everything to
throw it into Ukraine. So moving stuff to the Finnish
border might actually suggest that the Russians are going to
give up the ghost on Ukraine, and so now they're
(05:11):
putting troops back in places where they traditionally had them before.
Speaker 4 (05:17):
So yeah, so I don't know that.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
This is Afghanistan in the name of Russia, not the
Soviet Union all over again. I mean, eventually it's going
to end the same way. It's going to be a mission.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
Not all the Russians want to avoid Afghanistan in the
fact that they have a humiliating withdrawal, so they're just
very unlikely to see any of the territory that they
physically sit on.
Speaker 4 (05:41):
I think that's just the reality of it.
Speaker 3 (05:43):
And they know that the Ukrainians at present don't have
the military capacity take it back, and they know in
the future that in order to get a ceased by
the Ukrainians are sibably.
Speaker 4 (05:54):
Going to have to agree that they won't try to
take that land back by force.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
Nobody expected. Well, I guess the way the present in
a frame that this war would have never happened had
I been president and once i'm elected, it'll be over
before I even take the oath of office. I guess
at that point he set an expectation for an early
negotiation here, but it would be the end of the
world if you can get it done, even after one hundred days.
And it's going in that direction now. Iran a nuke talks,
(06:18):
that's a that's a whole other can of worms that
I don't even know if they made an announcement today,
if I would trust it, I.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
Don't think it's going anywhere. Yeah, And the reason for that,
I think it's going to be just like the North.
Speaker 4 (06:31):
Korean Trump likes to offer the operamp right, we don't
have to do this, but.
Speaker 3 (06:38):
The Iranians would have to essentially agree to give up
their nuclear weapons program. That's a non negotiable thing. And
I just don't think they're willing to do that. I
think they're willing to, you know, like the like the
kid that will sit out in the rain without an umbrella.
I mean, I think they're willing to do that. I
think they're willing to do anything as well. But I
don't think they're going to give up the new program.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
Where are they By the way, we've been tracking this.
James Carafinal, Lieutenant Colonel, joining us as he does every
Tuesday for a military and foreign policy briefing and one
of the largest thing tanks in the world, and quite
frankly not just Big John. I believe he's one of
the foremost authorities and voices you should listen to when
it comes to military and foreign policy. All right, so
advanced centrifuga's enriched geranium, is it for electricity? Is it
(07:22):
for a weapons grade that's been obvious all along? Delivery systems?
Is the other half of this equation? Where is Iran
in terms of this process of having a weapon of
mass destruction? Which is something I can tell you Israel
is not going to allow to be.
Speaker 4 (07:41):
It's a political decision. It's not a technical decision.
Speaker 3 (07:44):
So any day roon, any day it wants to, Iran
can say we are a nuclear weapons power. They could
do it tomorrow. It's a political decision, it's not a
capabilities decision. So if you're going to declare yourself a
nuclear power, that's a gate that once you cross, you
know you can't come back of unless you give up
your nuclear weapons.
Speaker 4 (08:05):
And so you do that decision when.
Speaker 3 (08:07):
It's when you feel like you have to do it
or you want to do it, not when you're ready
to do it. And I think that's what people get wrong.
They think it's a question of, well, we have to
stop them before they're prepared to do this. Dude, we
are past that.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
Yeah, we miss that.
Speaker 4 (08:21):
We miss this is this.
Speaker 3 (08:23):
Is they will do it when they want and which
is why is if they're not going to do a
deal to get rid of nuclear weapons, which you're probably not,
and if you don't want.
Speaker 4 (08:30):
To attack them, which we probably don't.
Speaker 3 (08:32):
Then the only thing is is you have to scare
the limb of Jesus out of them that they realize
that it's way more painful for them to declare themselves
in nuclear power than not.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
Well, but their motive is an offensive motive, all right.
So these are people that believe that they're called, you know,
to fight eliminate Israel's existence, the Great and then the
Great saintan after that the US. So, I mean, all
indications are that they would act preemptively and first because
they want to bring about the hit ennee mom and
(09:04):
the rule of Islam before Allah judges mankind. So I
guess my question would be if this goes nowhere, then
what does Israel do?
Speaker 4 (09:13):
But you must survive in order to do that.
Speaker 3 (09:20):
If you're going to deliver on that future, the regime
has to survive, which.
Speaker 4 (09:27):
Is why the number one thing they always.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
Put just conveniently happens, right, that they always put first
ahead of anything else, is we have to survive. So
they always do the calculus, which is, you know, we're
not going to commit suicide. You know we're going to
bring about the Amman and the future and the new
Caliphate and everything else. But but we can't do that
(09:51):
without us, all.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
Right, So closing moments first one hundred days, not a
lot on foreign policy achievement wise yet process but not achievement.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
Well yeah, but you know, first of all, I think
it's an insult to call it process.
Speaker 4 (10:08):
I think it's he has done a lot.
Speaker 3 (10:11):
To get the because this is all a mind game, right,
This is not like an episode of Yellowstone. I mean,
this is what's in your head, and he is insider
enemy's head and they are calculating that. And I think
he's done exactly what he needs to do. Anybody, you
know the things.
Speaker 4 (10:28):
That this stuff is over and then it's never over.
Speaker 3 (10:30):
You your enemy's never stopped trying to get you. So
I actually think he's made a lot of progress. I
think the world's much safer than it was, America's placed
in the world's much safer than it was months ago.
Speaker 4 (10:42):
And and you know, I think we of course corrected.
Speaker 3 (10:44):
If we were on a plane that was, you know,
nose diving into the into the Pacific Ocean, you know,
we the pilot has now pulled the pulled the thing back,
and then we're going back up into the air, and
you know, the waitresses are coming out with the free drinks.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
I would have just answered it one and one other thing,
which is, don't forget that the border is an issue
of national security, and that security has been restored. It's
also an issue of national financial security, which was the
second reason you elected him. The economy. That's no small,
major victory. Now it's on to tax cuts and do
the best you can negotiate some kind of piece.
Speaker 3 (11:18):
Can I can I give you one prediction sure this
that is Will and Gang that's in the US that
came in the US under Biden.
Speaker 4 (11:27):
Within six months, nothing's going to be left at all.
It'll be gone, completely wiped out.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
Maybe the greatest National Security triumph of the first one
hundred days. You can read his great work at Heritage
dot org, and you can hear him every Tuesday right
here on your morning show, Lieutenant Colonel James Carafano. God
bless you. Thank you for your time. As you can
see even the audience appreciates it.
Speaker 1 (11:51):
Miss a little, miss a lot, miss a lot, and
will miss you. It's your Morning Show with Michael del Churno.
Previously on your morning show with Michael del Chuno.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
It's Carafano day. You know where I'm at kitchen table
going with a double espresso today and today's Italian pastry
is a classic Napoleon. Let's go excited about the Carafano
weekly visit. See Lieutenant colonel, you make the great sacrifice
to be with us, and it is appreciated. All right.
(00:25):
So we got the president at one hundred days headed
to Michigan. We think he's got an announcement on a
deal reached on the auto tariffs. Also, he'll be taking
some victory laps over the border. There is unfinished business
in terms of tax cuts and a piece deal with
Russia and Ukraine and a new negotiation with Iram. Let's
get started. This is a very difficult thing to do
(00:45):
because neither are trustworthy. I mean, how do you negotiate
peace with Russian Iran when if their lips are moving,
they're probably lying. What's a reasonable expectation of progress here?
Speaker 3 (00:57):
Yeah, I mean you can just roll the table because
I always say the same thing. I mean, I think
the most reasonable thing is a small deal, which is
just a ceasefire in place. It actually serves the interest
of both sides. Both sides really need a strategic break,
and so that to me is the most likely. Having
(01:23):
said that, it's it really is all up to Vladimir Putin.
Putin tries to get whatever he can, and then when
he realizes it can't get any more, he might cut
a deal.
Speaker 4 (01:34):
So literally, we might just wake up one day and Putin.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
Says, okay, we have a deal, right and then but
he might he might say no, I want to run
the war for another year and see what happens. He
can he can do that. I mean, he can keep fighting.
I mean he's not going to run out of North
Koreans to get killed. If he does that, I think
it's pretty clear that. I don't know, things get better
(01:57):
for him. Look, I don't care what people say. The
United States is not just going to walk away and
abandon Ukraine.
Speaker 4 (02:03):
Trump is not going to do that. He's not that stupid.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
First of all, it's not even it's getting to be
less of a left for us every day because the
Europeans are doing more right. Ukrainians can defend They can't
conquer the whole country and get it back, but they
can defend themselves. It doesn't it's not worth the risk
to abandon Ukraine and have things, you know, the whole
everything in the region fall apart.
Speaker 4 (02:24):
Well, so that's where we are, all.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
Right on that point. Obviously. The first is a video
Donald Trump coming down an escalator. That's what began everything.
Iconic pictures, an assassination attempt, blood coming down the side
of his face with a fist in the air. That's
an iconic presidential picture for our time and for all time.
And I think there's a second iconic picture, and that
(02:47):
is at the Vatican for a funeral of a pope
absolutely sitting on a chair talking with Zelenski. I mean,
you're not just Charlie Schmuckin. That is a fact, Jack.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
But that doesn't Oh no, no no, because I said
that not maybe the iconic picture of the twenty first century.
And what's important about that picture is, let's be honest,
Donald Trump doesn't.
Speaker 4 (03:10):
Like Selinsky personally, he doesn't.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
But Donald Trump is a statesman and we have seen
this again and again and again and again.
Speaker 4 (03:23):
Although people just refuse to acknowledge this.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
Donald Trump puts his personal interests and his personal attitude
aside when he thinks the country has to come first,
So sitting down with Zelensky and coming to a mind
to save the people of Ukraine and end this war,
he'll do that. And he did that, and it just
shows what a great man he absolutely really is. And
(03:48):
the fact that it was in the Vatican, to me
just reminds me this country is blessed because he may
not be the perfect leader.
Speaker 4 (03:58):
He may not be your favorite leader.
Speaker 3 (04:00):
Who has, but God blessed us with a leader who
cares about us.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
What does Vladimir Putin make up that picture?
Speaker 3 (04:08):
And that image? I am so screwed. Just make it
a meme because who's not in the room, right?
Speaker 4 (04:18):
All right?
Speaker 2 (04:18):
But you got him. So Putin's still bombing and he's
still stalling. His foreign secretary says, we're willing to sit
down and negotiate a deal. We still want to be
at the table. YadA, YadA, YadA. All right, that's a
mixed message. It sure looks like Putin's actions tell me
he wants to fight another year, But the overtures from
the Foreign Minister of Russia tells me maybe not just yet.
Speaker 4 (04:44):
I'll tell you, the most interesting clue I had.
Speaker 3 (04:48):
Was the Russians are moving more stuff to the finished border.
Now they've actually been moving stuff away from everything to
throw it into Ukraine. So moving stuff to the Finnish
border might actually suggest that the Russians are going to
give up the ghost on Ukraine, and so now they're
(05:11):
putting troops back in places where they traditionally had them before.
Speaker 4 (05:17):
So yeah, so I don't know that.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
This is Afghanistan in the name of Russia, not the
Soviet Union all over again. I mean, eventually it's going
to end the same way. It's going to be a mission.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
Not all the Russians want to avoid Afghanistan in the
fact that they have a humiliating withdrawal, so they're just
very unlikely to see any of the territory that they
physically sit on.
Speaker 4 (05:41):
I think that's just the reality of it.
Speaker 3 (05:43):
And they know that the Ukrainians at present don't have
the military capacity take it back, and they know in
the future that in order to get a ceased by
the Ukrainians are sibably.
Speaker 4 (05:54):
Going to have to agree that they won't try to
take that land back by force.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
Nobody expected. Well, I guess the way the present in
a frame that this war would have never happened had
I been president and once i'm elected, it'll be over
before I even take the oath of office. I guess
at that point he set an expectation for an early
negotiation here, but it would be the end of the
world if you can get it done, even after one hundred days.
And it's going in that direction now. Iran a nuke talks,
(06:18):
that's a that's a whole other can of worms that
I don't even know if they made an announcement today,
if I would trust it, I.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
Don't think it's going anywhere. Yeah, And the reason for that,
I think it's going to be just like the North.
Speaker 4 (06:31):
Korean Trump likes to offer the operamp right, we don't
have to do this, but.
Speaker 3 (06:38):
The Iranians would have to essentially agree to give up
their nuclear weapons program. That's a non negotiable thing. And
I just don't think they're willing to do that. I
think they're willing to, you know, like the like the
kid that will sit out in the rain without an umbrella.
I mean, I think they're willing to do that. I
think they're willing to do anything as well. But I
don't think they're going to give up the new program.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
Where are they By the way, we've been tracking this.
James Carafinal, Lieutenant Colonel, joining us as he does every
Tuesday for a military and foreign policy briefing and one
of the largest thing tanks in the world, and quite
frankly not just Big John. I believe he's one of
the foremost authorities and voices you should listen to when
it comes to military and foreign policy. All right, so
advanced centrifuga's enriched geranium, is it for electricity? Is it
(07:22):
for a weapons grade that's been obvious all along? Delivery systems?
Is the other half of this equation? Where is Iran
in terms of this process of having a weapon of
mass destruction? Which is something I can tell you Israel
is not going to allow to be.
Speaker 4 (07:41):
It's a political decision. It's not a technical decision.
Speaker 3 (07:44):
So any day roon, any day it wants to, Iran
can say we are a nuclear weapons power. They could
do it tomorrow. It's a political decision, it's not a
capabilities decision. So if you're going to declare yourself a
nuclear power, that's a gate that once you cross, you
know you can't come back of unless you give up
your nuclear weapons.
Speaker 4 (08:05):
And so you do that decision when.
Speaker 3 (08:07):
It's when you feel like you have to do it
or you want to do it, not when you're ready
to do it. And I think that's what people get wrong.
They think it's a question of, well, we have to
stop them before they're prepared to do this. Dude, we
are past that.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
Yeah, we miss that.
Speaker 4 (08:21):
We miss this is this.
Speaker 3 (08:23):
Is they will do it when they want and which
is why is if they're not going to do a
deal to get rid of nuclear weapons, which you're probably not,
and if you don't want.
Speaker 4 (08:30):
To attack them, which we probably don't.
Speaker 3 (08:32):
Then the only thing is is you have to scare
the limb of Jesus out of them that they realize
that it's way more painful for them to declare themselves
in nuclear power than not.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
Well, but their motive is an offensive motive, all right.
So these are people that believe that they're called, you know,
to fight eliminate Israel's existence, the Great and then the
Great saintan after that the US. So, I mean, all
indications are that they would act preemptively and first because
they want to bring about the hit ennee mom and
(09:04):
the rule of Islam before Allah judges mankind. So I
guess my question would be if this goes nowhere, then
what does Israel do?
Speaker 4 (09:13):
But you must survive in order to do that.
Speaker 3 (09:20):
If you're going to deliver on that future, the regime
has to survive, which.
Speaker 4 (09:27):
Is why the number one thing they always.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
Put just conveniently happens, right, that they always put first
ahead of anything else, is we have to survive. So
they always do the calculus, which is, you know, we're
not going to commit suicide. You know we're going to
bring about the Amman and the future and the new
Caliphate and everything else. But but we can't do that
(09:51):
without us, all.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
Right, So closing moments first one hundred days, not a
lot on foreign policy achievement wise yet process but not achievement.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
Well yeah, but you know, first of all, I think
it's an insult to call it process.
Speaker 4 (10:08):
I think it's he has done a lot.
Speaker 3 (10:11):
To get the because this is all a mind game, right,
This is not like an episode of Yellowstone. I mean,
this is what's in your head, and he is insider
enemy's head and they are calculating that. And I think
he's done exactly what he needs to do. Anybody, you
know the things.
Speaker 4 (10:28):
That this stuff is over and then it's never over.
Speaker 3 (10:30):
You your enemy's never stopped trying to get you. So
I actually think he's made a lot of progress. I
think the world's much safer than it was, America's placed
in the world's much safer than it was months ago.
Speaker 4 (10:42):
And and you know, I think we of course corrected.
Speaker 3 (10:44):
If we were on a plane that was, you know,
nose diving into the into the Pacific Ocean, you know,
we the pilot has now pulled the pulled the thing back,
and then we're going back up into the air, and
you know, the waitresses are coming out with the free drinks.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
I would have just answered it one and one other thing,
which is, don't forget that the border is an issue
of national security, and that security has been restored. It's
also an issue of national financial security, which was the
second reason you elected him. The economy. That's no small,
major victory. Now it's on to tax cuts and do
the best you can negotiate some kind of piece.
Speaker 3 (11:18):
Can I can I give you one prediction sure this
that is Will and Gang that's in the US that
came in the US under Biden.
Speaker 4 (11:27):
Within six months, nothing's going to be left at all.
It'll be gone, completely wiped out.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
Maybe the greatest National Security triumph of the first one
hundred days. You can read his great work at Heritage
dot org, and you can hear him every Tuesday right
here on your morning show, Lieutenant Colonel James Carafano. God
bless you. Thank you for your time. As you can
see even the audience appreciates it.
Speaker 1 (11:51):
Miss a little, miss a lot, miss a lot, and
will miss you. It's your Morning Show with Michael del Churno.
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