November 1, 2024 • 30 mins
Heading into the final weekend, where do the polls have control of the Senate and House going???
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hey, it's me Michael. Your morning show can be heard
live five to eight am Central, six to nine Eastern
and great cities like Jackson, Mississippi, Akron, Ohio, or Columbus, Georgia.
We'd love to be a part of your morning routine
and we're grateful you're here. Now. Enjoy the podcast on two.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Three, starting your morning off right. A new way of talk,
a new way of understanding because we're in this together.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
This is your Morning show with Michael O'Dell charm. Thank
you Mike McCann, streaming live and on the air your
morning show. I'm Michael del Joernal. Jeffrey Lyons has the control.
Seven minutes after the hour. Well, first Joe Biden with
the garbage. Then they get caught editing the transcript. Then
(00:48):
you have Mark Cuban insulting all women. So if you're
a woman supporting Donald Trump, now you got to feel
like you're perceived as not a strong intelligent woman. I mean,
at some point you scratch eating are they trying to lose?
Then you have Donald Trump's viewership on Joe Rogan is
(01:09):
up to forty two million. Jd vance released yesterday afternoon.
In six hours, it was at seven million. We see
that the Republicans seem to be ahead of the Democrats,
and that's usually not the case. They matched him in
mail in and early voting. They don't seem to have
the campus dominance. There's something different with the youth in America.
(01:31):
They've had an ongoing loss in the Hispanic and Black
voting blocks. Even the unions heading into this election were
somewhat split, veterans all siding with Donald Trump. And now
we're seeing a lot of key Senate races closing and
closing very fast. What is going on on this Friday
before the Tuesday election. Well, Davidsonatti's the CEO of the
(01:51):
American Policy Roundtable, host of the Public Square, just me
saying this. I believe the crown jewel of their accomplishments
along with Christmas in America, and of course he's a
senior correspond to here on your morning show. First and foremost, David,
let's go through some of these Senate races, because I
think the numbers are tight and that leaves you with
could go either way. That's what everybody always says me
(02:12):
to look at polling, but the trends are not tight,
and they paint a very clear picture. Let's start in
one of your home states, Ohio, where Brown was leading
in June by five and a half, then in July
by four, then in August by five, then in September
by only three point three, in October by only one.
Where might that stand after the Tuesday vote? So the
(02:33):
trend shows something clear. The election is basically a toss
up for control of the Senate.
Speaker 2 (02:40):
To turnout, and it'll come down clearly to Trump turnout
as to how well he does, whether people feel that
it's it's the race is over, there's no reason to
be overly concerned. You know, turnouts is a very powerful question.
So but it's very possible that he can, that Bernie
Mario can win that seat, and it would be a
(03:00):
very important seat because right now the Democrats are projected
to lose two seats West Virginia and Montana. Now, what
people have to understand is just because it says that
the Democrats have a fifty one forty nine control of
the Senate, if you flip two, that means it's fifty
one to forty nine Republican. But that's not true because
(03:22):
the Republicans have two radical progressives in their camp. They
have Murkowski in Alaska and they have in Maine, they
have Susan Collins. So unless the Republicans go up three,
they're still down and people don't realize that. And that
third race could be the Ohio race.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
Yeah. And the only thing I would add to it
is if you know in Ohio certainly Trump is going
to win, Like we go to Wisconsin, if Trump were
to carry Wisconsin, you would think he would carry this
close race over the finish line with him. We'll talk
more about that with the House. But Wisconsin's another one
where it looks one way, but the trend is another.
So Baldwin is up by less than one at this point,
(04:04):
zero point eight, but how to get Balden was up
seven in July, six, in August, three, in September, and
now in october's down to zero point eight and here
comes election day. So the trend paints a very clear
picture and a breaking picture. It could be a surprise.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
I mean, it just depends on how much of what
we can tell translates into people showing.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
Up on election day.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
Now we've got a lower amount of mail in participation,
but a higher amount.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
Of early in person vote early.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
Yeah, but it doesn't necessarily mean we're going to have
a higher vote compan we had last time, simple numbers
to get keeping our heads as we look at this election,
basically seventy five and eighty or two numbers. To remember,
Trump roughly got seventy five million votes in twenty twenty
and Biden got eighty seventy five eighty. So you look
at one hundred and fifty five million votes, Well, this
(04:58):
race comes down to one hundred and forty five or
one hundred and fifty million. It's a very different dynamic.
Speaker 1 (05:02):
Five to ten million votes is a big deal.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
So the size of the turnout on the on the
gross number is important, and particularly important is it relates
to house races as well.
Speaker 1 (05:13):
Now, what made everybody feel very comfortable to the Republicans
were going to take control of the Senate by number
is West Virginia and Montana. Montana, I mean, I think
it's over. Tester's done in October. Now he's down six
and a half. West Virginia looks very strong for the
Republicans as well. So that goes to Pennsylvania. Casey. This
(05:36):
is fascinating. Casey was up by seven point seven in July.
You know, July is not that long ago. I just
want to remind everybody it seems like yesterday. So in
July it was seven point seven and August five point four,
in September five point two. But like in all of them,
something really different happened between September and October and it
(05:56):
fell from five to two to two six. And so
in Pennsylvania, you know, you'll wonder if Donald Trump is
to carry Pennsylvania, could he carry McCormick over the line
with him again? And you know it would be the
same response from me. But I just wanted you to
see these are the same trends in all of them.
I'll do Michigan last Slotkin was six and a half
in July, then five and August, then four in September,
(06:20):
and now three point one. I think Slotkin it will
win in Michigan, but it's the same trend going down. Nevada.
Rosen was up ten point seven in August, eight and
a half in September, fell in half to four point
two in October. I don't think if it can collapse
that quickly in Nevada, but that too would depend on
(06:42):
how the top of the ticket goes with not mail in,
not early in person, but election day voting, I mean,
I my prognostication was Republicans plus three, which in your
analogy makes them even if Jade Banks is the vice
president the tiebreaker, but it gives him all the Senate
how but these what do you make of these trends?
(07:02):
First of all, why would all these Senate races be
closing so fast?
Speaker 2 (07:06):
Well, I think it makes sense because most people don't
know who the other person is running for Senate all
the way back into July, August, September. They don't start
paying attention until Labor Day. And that's also when the
commercials begin to happen. And these states that have key
closed center races, everyone there will tell you we're doing
it every day. The people are being bombarded on these
Senate races. It's it's it's truly annoying. People are turning
(07:30):
their television sets off. They can't take it anymore. They
stop streaming everything because they just can't take it. So
that's the challenge that we have in that scenario, and
that these races are localized as well. I mean, take
for example, in Tennessee, we're sitting here, we don't hear
from Marshall Blackburn much at all for six years, but
then all of a sudden, she's on everybody's television set
and she's not even in.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
A contempt breaking, breaking, breaking China plates. Yeah maybe, but yeah.
Speaker 2 (07:56):
So it's that crazy season where the Senate reappear. So
main recognition is a part of that, the volume of
commercials and dollars spent, and then obviously what's happening at
the top of the ticket changes it. So every race
is closing, but you're right to point out will they
close sufficiently at this stage in the game, So there's
really no way to know.
Speaker 1 (08:17):
David Sinati joining us our senior correspondent and from American
Policy Roundtable and I Voters hou is is much harder track,
isn't it.
Speaker 2 (08:26):
Yeah, Michael, we do eye voters dot Com. That means
that from the State House to the White House, we
basically catalog and then distribute information on all of those
races in all fifty states. Well, you've got four hundred
and thirty five House races, which means you have at
least nine and seventy candidates, and you could have many,
many more when it comes to independence running as well.
(08:48):
So let's just rough it up to a thousand You've
got one thousand candidates just on one website. In regards
to the House races controlling the United States House, getting
a good read on one tappening the United State House.
Speaker 1 (09:01):
That's a lot of work.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
You've got four hundred and thirty five races, and every
one of them is distinct. Now they're trends in their
own environments, and they're being held in real time at
the same place. But everything is different, and every race
is different. So even with all the technology we have
and all the pundits and all the experts and all
the blah blah blah blah blah, nobody can tell you
for sure what's going to happen in the House. But
I can tell you this much.
Speaker 1 (09:24):
There's a seven.
Speaker 2 (09:26):
Vote margin right now on paper for the Republicans. If
they lose four seats, they lose the House, and you've
got a Jeffrey's Circus show.
Speaker 1 (09:35):
Then yeah, I feel I don't know if I would
do in this order, probably tied, But if I had
to put it in order, I feel best about the
Republicans controlling the Senate if they need the even to
over above I feel I don't feel I know that
the Republics are going to control the Senate. I believe
(09:56):
they're going to control it by three, which would satisfy
your number that you knew onced earlier. I feel very
strongly Donald Trump is going to win. My gut is
I don't think they're going to win the House. I
know you don't do predictions, but that's kind of where
I'm coming from.
Speaker 2 (10:11):
Oh, I think that's very possible. They've only got seven
seats to start with, right, And this is why the
real leaders of the Democrat Party, Potestin Soros and the
billionaire's club that have hollowed up the Democratic machine since
two thousand and three. They're an empus for twenty years
and who funds it all through their billionaire networks, and
(10:31):
it's all documented. This is not conspiracy. Their primary focus
is on the House and the Senate because if Donald
Trump's the next president, he's only got four years. If
they control either of the two bodies, they make Donald
Trump a lane duck the day after election. I know
that's not what people want to hear, but that's what's
really happening inside Washington. Ez. I mean, my job is
(10:54):
to sell people nutritional bars in a candy store. Okay,
it's no fun. Is what we're talking about right now
is how Washington really works and what's really going on
behind the scenes, not what the media is selling us.
And if they control the House and Jefferies is the
Chairman of the House, they will I mean, you could
(11:14):
imagine that impeachments will start day two. As soon as
to help from science the first executive order, they'll start.
Speaker 1 (11:21):
To impeach him.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
Their goal is to make him an absolute total lame duck.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
Let me cut to the chase by saying something really shocking.
My guess is, I mean they care, but they don't
care nearly as much about winning the presidency as they
do about, in my humble opinion, turning him into a
lame duck and four years later in an open election,
(11:45):
taking somebody like Wes Moore from Maryland and Barack obamaing
whoever the Republicans run, Right, that's the game they're playing.
The question is.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
They're moving on to the next four years already. That's
and in fact, they may have already been there two
years ago and the rest of us are.
Speaker 1 (12:01):
Just pitching up to them. Yeah, but they what they
don't like. I'm thoroughly convinced and trust me, Uncle George
loves to listen to me, so I have some street
cred I don't think they like how they stop griping
and actually engaged and quite frankly competed with mail in
voting and early in person voting. They don't like that
(12:23):
awakening within the Republican Party. I think that they're probably
very concerned about the youth of America. They have a
stranglehold on everything that kids watch, listen to. They thought
they did with social media, but I think if there's
anything Charlie Kirk has done well, trust me on TikTok.
They're winning hearts and minds with videos. They probably don't
(12:46):
like that, and they'll be addressing that in the next
four years. They're gonna come after our kids big better
you better lock the doors. That's coming. And I think
they're somewhat concerned over the black but they're gonna They
know they can address that with Wes more the unions
and you know, like the Hispanic voting block that's been
dwindling this whole Israel and border dilemma. They can nuance
(13:10):
their way out of that. And they think they've got
Wes Moore to address the black and the charisma and
perhaps even the youth. But there's some things on the raidar.
I am thoroughly convinced this has been so shoddy, from
the throwing Joe out there and exposing him so that
he'd have to go away picking the only thing worse
than him, Kamala Harris. They gave you the appearance of
(13:30):
a sugar high, but they've just let this. They don't.
They don't operate this poorly in the closing stretches they're operating.
I think that's their play. I would go so far
to say is I think they they would almost prefer
to lose the presidency if they can get the house
and come back with Wes Moore in four years. I
think the writing's all over the wall. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
I couldn't agree with you more, Michael. I think that's
the reality. These people understand how government works, and they
can buy and buy and buy people to agree with them.
Speaker 1 (13:56):
You never do this, But I'll ask, just for the
sake of anybody yelling at the radio, have you done
final electoral college map?
Speaker 2 (14:03):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (14:03):
Mine hasn't changed. So you have Kamala two seventy to
two sixty eight or what is it? No?
Speaker 2 (14:09):
No, I right now the whole race comes down to
Wisconsin and Arizona's Trump wins those two state two wins
with two seventy two.
Speaker 1 (14:15):
Yeah, and I got them win them both and then some.
All right, appreciate it, David Sinati. We'll be back on
the Monday. It'll be election Eve when I talk to
you next. Next, have a great weekend. This is your
Morning show with Michael del Chrono. Hey, it's Michael reminding
(14:42):
you that your morning show can be heard live each
weekday morning five to eight Central, six to nine Eastern
and great cities like Nashville, Tennessee two below, Mississippi, and Sacramento, California.
We'd love to be a part of your morning routine
and take the drive to work with you, but better
late than never. We're grateful you're here now. Enjoy the podcast.
Speaker 3 (15:00):
It's about talking to Angela Merkel about the lack of
cheves driving around Germany and the tariffs that are imposed,
and how that he believes that European automakers, German ones
in particular, are taking advantage of some pretty lax regulations.
So he's been suggesting tariffs or reform to the tariff
(15:21):
rules because that the former president says, you know, we've
got assembly plans here, but the cars and the parts
are all manufactured there in Germany.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
So we had the key inflation gage showing positive signs,
but again, Americans paying far to it. When you really
boil it down, I think it's seventy percent. Our wages
haven't kept up with the inflation of cost seventy percent
on vehicles, I mean vehicles, groceries and housing, right, those
(15:49):
are just our shelter, our transportation. But that's what's burying
the American people. What do we think we're going to
get with the job support today? Yeah, and we also,
by the way, haven't seen mortgage rates come down. In fact,
the one greates.
Speaker 3 (16:01):
Have been going up thereast few weeks and back over
seven percent again, and that's a big weight on a
huge sector of the economy. We're just not moving houses still,
and that brings down real estate agents. That means you're
selling fewer homes, you're selling fewer sofas and fewer big
screen TVs. The title agency isn't getting the work. You know,
(16:22):
anyone in that real estate sector knows how. A lot
of that filters down through the rest of the economy.
So well, getting that going is really important. You know,
the jobs numbers from ADP were more positive than expected
earlier this week as well, so perhaps they'll that'll they'll outperform.
What are they looking at? Two thirty I think was
the ADP number this week. I don't have it in
(16:42):
front of me, but that sounds about right. And what's
the report coming out this morning? I think it's going
to be eight eastern or somewhere in the thirty Yeah,
one hour from the hour, yeah, fifties, three minutes from now.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
Yeah, So we'll get the we'll have that, okay, So
we'll have that before your final visit with us. There
you go, Well, then I'll have then I'll be able
to get you a full update. An ah, He's always
on top of it. You don't, you're not really. I
can tell you're not. Like if I were to ask
you if you've done your electoral college map, I know
the answer is no, right correct, Yeah, just.
Speaker 3 (17:11):
You're not a fan of politics period. That is incredibly inaccurate.
Who knows, so why don't you do a map? Because
I'm not a nerd.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
That on that note, one who is a nerd ist,
John Decker. We're going to have our electoral college map
off coming up. I was gonna get some tips from you, yeah,
before we left, But you obviously don't. You don't want
to play electoral college map. You're not a nerd. That's
roy O'Neil. He'll be back by the way with the
jobs number report when he's with us next hour, right,
if you're well. They were out west, probably the biggest
(17:49):
surprise Donald Trump in New Mexico and why but the
candidates were out in the west and southwest, mainly to
hit those two key swing states Nevada and Arizona. With
just as left in the election, Mark Mayfield fills us in.
Speaker 4 (18:02):
Former President Trump spoke at a rally in solid blue.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
New Mexico Thursday afternoon.
Speaker 5 (18:07):
If we could bring God down from heaven, he could
be the vote counter.
Speaker 6 (18:11):
We would win this, We'd win California, We'd win.
Speaker 1 (18:15):
A lot of states.
Speaker 4 (18:16):
He also held events in Arizona and Nevada, with Trump
officials claiming there's momentum in the entire region mice precident.
Harris meanwhile brought the star power on Thursday, with the
musical group Los Ti, Grace del Norte joining her in Phoenix,
and Jennifer Lopez.
Speaker 1 (18:29):
In Las Vegas, I'm Mark Mayfield, and Arizona judge says
thousands of voters' names affected by a technical glitch must
be released. Matt Mattinson reports.
Speaker 6 (18:38):
The Thursday ruling effects around ninety eight thousand residents. They
were part of a database era where those with a
driver's license issued before nineteen ninety six did not have
proof of US citizenship on file. This comes after a
conservative group challenge for those names to be released and
verified by county recorders. Secretary of State Adrian Fontes said
he believes most of the voters are US citizens and
(19:00):
pointed at safety and logistical concerns as reasons for keeping
the names under wraps. The Arizona Supreme Court previously ruled
that those voters can still cast their ballots next week.
In Phoenix, I'm at Mattinson.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
Big Lots is being sold to Nexus Capital Management. Brian
Shook as the very latest on that store.
Speaker 5 (19:19):
The discount retail chain filed for bankruptcy earlier this summer.
It was recently sold for seven hundred and sixty five
million dollars. Nexa's Capital Management also has ties to Dollar
Shave Club, Tom's, and many others. It's expected to take
over Big Lots stores in December.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
I'm Brian Shuck. It's always nuanced, right. Inflation compared to
last year or compared to pre COVID a new key
inflation gage showing some positive signs, but for the American
people still doesn't match reality. They're paying far too much
for things like groceries. Lisa Taylor has more.
Speaker 7 (19:53):
The Commerce Department reported today the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price
Index dropped to two point one percent last month on
an annual basis. That is in line with the expectations.
But even with inflation slowing, prices are still high, but
they're rising at a slower rate. Fin'ly said Taylor.
Speaker 1 (20:09):
Okay, I gotta be honest with you. I never watched
Squid Games the first time around. It was big with
my kids. But the first trailers for Squid Games two
is now out. A second season of the record breaking
Netflix show takes place three years after the first one
finds player four fifty six giving up on going to
the States and returning to the deadly competition. The show's
(20:31):
executive producer has said Squid Games will end after a
third season that'll premiere sometime next year. Squid Games two
hits Netflix on December twenty sixth, A little Something the
day after gondessimiss for me, I was just excited that
I didn't notice the second season of The Diplomat was out,
so I started watching it yesterday. And well, when it
comes to Halloween candy, you know, collecting, sorting, trading, eating,
(20:56):
but not in California. One agency doesn't want you to
do that thing. Eat it. Pre Tennis has more.
Speaker 8 (21:02):
The Super Dennis say they'll buy your children's candy for
a dollar a pound now through November eighth. They say
it's to keep a candy out of the kid's mouths
and prevent cavities. And they've done this candy buy back
since two thousand and four, collecting more than twenty thousand
pounds of chocolate gummies, peanut butter cups, and more. The
loot they buy back isn't destined for the dump. It's
(21:22):
actually donated to active duty military members who hopefully have
a better grasp of a toothbrush than kids. I'm pre Tennis,
take our Snickers bars.
Speaker 1 (21:34):
This is Andy Hickson, formerly of Nashville and now living
in Detroit, Michigan. Thanks to iHeartRadio, My Morning show is
your morning show. It's your morning show. John Decker should
be dialing in any moment. I don't know. There's any
chance he's going to check it out, that's for sure.
And when he does, we're going to compare electoral college maps.
(21:54):
The way this began was well number one, I think
it kind of began with RFK Junior, and then we
started having discussions, and so at one point I had
said to him, well, when do you do your map? Well,
I kind of wait till about, you know, a day
or two before the election. So then the choice became
very simple, do we do it on the Friday before
(22:15):
the election or the Monday. We chose today, the friday
before the election, So we'll see what his final electoral
college map looks like and who he has winning and
by what, and I will share mine. And we have
determined that if I win, he has to fly here
and we do an old fashioned sleepover. So it's like
filling out your bracket for the NCAA tournament.
Speaker 3 (22:33):
What you're doing.
Speaker 1 (22:34):
It's so funny that you say that, because you know,
I kind of you know, Rory likes to be a
jerk to me sometimes, and I love that whole stick.
But if if when I say you're not really into politics,
and you say, well, nothing could be further from the truth,
But I just don't do an electoral college map, Well
that's like saying and I am, by the way, March Madness,
the Masters, the super Bowl while they've ruined the super Bowl,
(22:56):
and the World Series are my favorite events. All right,
So but March madness. The whole fun is having a bracket.
That doesn't make you a nerd. That's a part of
the experience. Sure, And so the map is key. Now
how much thought you put into it. You know, you
can't really see the brakes and polling like you used to.
So you got to have a lot more discernment, You
got to feel it more, You got to dig deeper.
(23:17):
This is where we get into mail in voting versus
in person early voting, and what percentage are Republican and Democrats.
And then in these independent states that is so nuanced
and you have to kind of try to look in
and see, well, what might an independent be thinking. Do
we really think they're fixated only on abortion, climate change,
(23:38):
insulin prices, price gouging, or do their concerns go beyond that?
Sounds nerdy? The voting blocks are very interesting. There are
things that the Democrats used to be able to count on,
and that was young voters dominating campuses. They can't even
dominate elementary schools anymore. There's change in the air, so
(24:00):
they don't have the young vote like they used to.
The Hispanic vote has been dwindling for about two decades now,
and maybe it's actually flipped into the Republican's favor. They're
particularly having a problem with black votes mail black votes
this time around. The unions weren't even in the bag.
Right Workers' Union actually supported Trump, though they wouldn't give
Trump the nomination. And then probably the two biggest things
(24:25):
that are kind of nuanced is usually the Democrats are
great at mail in voting, early voting, and ground game.
The Republicans usually gripe about it and only vote on
election day. That's not the case this time around. And
you don't have the luxury of hiding Kamala Harrison plain
sight the way you did Joe Biden in a basement,
distracted by COVID, And you don't even have control of
(24:47):
the mainstream media because it's not relevant anymore. Joe Rogan,
Trump's all of them put together, It's a different world.
Megan Kelly, Tucker Carlson, the influence they used to have
on it's now ten times that influence, and they're not
on any network. And the Republicans seem to be where
the people are. And then Elon Musk and his control
(25:09):
now of sochalf of social media, especially politically owning X.
These are all game changers that didn't exist. You start
comparing to where things were when it was Trump versus Clinton, Well,
where was Tucker and Megan Kelly? Then where was Joe Kelly?
Then who owned Twitter? Then? What was Twitter like? Then?
(25:31):
Compare it to the election four years ago? Four years ago?
Are you kidding me? They were controlling the narrative through
the mainstream media, they were controlling any opposing thought. They
had weaponized COVID, They had the mail in voting, in
the shadow campaign in full swing. None of that exists
(25:55):
this time around. So in essence, you can't you can't
see a break maybe in the polls. You got to
feel it and discern it and then put your map together.
All right, we got John Decker, John, you just missed me,
wax poetically while I waited on you. I've set the
(26:16):
entire table for this competition. What I'm not clear on
is if I win. I thought, if I win and
then you try to switch it to me, come there.
If I win, I wanted you to fly here because
I'm telling you, I think we're going to become very
close friends. But I want to have, like when we
were teenagers, a good old fashioned sleepover. We put our pajamazon,
we watched Dave American President, we eat a little pasta,
(26:37):
we laugh, we talk. You know, a sleepover. What was
it going to be the condition? If you win? What
do I have to do?
Speaker 9 (26:45):
Oh? I don't know, Jess.
Speaker 1 (26:47):
You don't want anything from me? Do you not even catch?
Speaker 9 (26:51):
Well? Look that's what you want. How about if I
come to Nashville and we go to.
Speaker 1 (26:55):
A Predators game?
Speaker 9 (26:56):
You know that to me sounds more appealing to me
than bend out.
Speaker 1 (27:00):
Nobody wants to do sleepovers anymore, you know, like what
life was fun? All right? So if you win, I
fly you here, we go to a Predators game. Then
I guess if that's the case. If I win, then yeah,
I come to DC and you give me the two
of the press room and everything. Yeah, you don't think
you could get back air Force one.
Speaker 9 (27:15):
Do you No, I can't that too. I can't bring that.
Speaker 2 (27:19):
Sorry.
Speaker 1 (27:20):
All right. Now, for the purposes of this, because we're
down to three minutes, I'm going to assume that we
all have the similar things. So really where there would
be differences is Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada.
I think we can agree on that, right. Everything else
is going to be a master.
Speaker 6 (27:35):
Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 9 (27:36):
So you and I both start out with two twenty
six to two nineteen. At least that's what my map
certainly looks like if you factor out those seven swing states.
Two twenty six for Harris, two nineteen for Donald Trump.
Speaker 1 (27:47):
All right, so let's start on the West coast Nevada.
Speaker 9 (27:52):
Nevada is a state that Donald Trump lost both in
twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. I believe he will lose
it once again in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1 (28:01):
Okay, Now, keep in mind in twenty sixteen, Hillary was
up in Nevada by two, Biden was up by four.
Heading into this weekend, Trump on a Real Color Politics
average is up just under a point at point nine.
I got Nevada red. I know it's going to be close.
And you may be right, and I may be wrong,
but I've got it read all right. Arizona.
Speaker 9 (28:22):
Arizona is a state that Donald Trump will win this
election cycle after losing it narrowly in twenty twenty. A
reminder just before we go on, I've been to each
and every one of these battleground states quite a bit
over the past few months. And also a reminder, I
got twenty sixteen right, and I got twenty twenty right.
Speaker 1 (28:40):
Hey, give a trash talk till the end. All right, Georgie,
I think we're gonna agree. Donald Trump's going to carry Georgia.
Speaker 9 (28:49):
We do agree he is going to carry the state
of Georgia.
Speaker 1 (28:52):
Now they're all tough North Carolina.
Speaker 9 (28:56):
I think that what we should do. If you agree
with this, let's go to Carolina and Pennsylvania last, and
let's go to Michigan and Wisconsin first.
Speaker 1 (29:05):
That he's taken over the show. I like this about you.
These were very very difficult for me. I had a
couple of things, and there's a lot of different nuance
in this. But when push came to shove, if if
Donald Trump carries Pennsylvania, Michigan, like is likely to go
with it. And you know, when you look at Pennsylvania,
for example, Clinton was up three at this point because
things were breaking away from her. Biden was at three six.
(29:27):
Trump is actually up. I think it's going to be close.
But I like, I like Donald Trump to carry Pennsylvania.
Therefore I gave him Michigan, Wisconsin, I think is looking.
You know, it's really tough to call because you don't
know what the dependents are going to do. It's a
toss up. And I went ahead, believe it or not.
And this is where you're going to really get excited.
I gave Donald Trump Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Speaker 9 (29:49):
Okay, you know, and that's possible. And I think that
what you suggest is a replication of what happened in
twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. Whoever won a one battleground
state in the Blue Wall States won them all. So
I don't, you know, disagree with your your rationale in
terms of doing it.
Speaker 1 (30:06):
I have what's your we have what's your Oh gosh,
how are we going to do this? We got five seconds.
What's your final number? Final number?
Speaker 9 (30:14):
Let's see, we have two seventy six Harris, two sixty
two Trump and I.
Speaker 1 (30:18):
Got Trump three twelve, to the Democrats to twenty six.
We're all in this together. This is your Morning Show
with Mike Openhial and showing now
Hey, it's me Michael. Your morning show can be heard
live five to eight am Central, six to nine Eastern
and great cities like Jackson, Mississippi, Akron, Ohio, or Columbus, Georgia.
We'd love to be a part of your morning routine
and we're grateful you're here. Now. Enjoy the podcast on two.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Three, starting your morning off right. A new way of talk,
a new way of understanding because we're in this together.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
This is your Morning show with Michael O'Dell charm. Thank
you Mike McCann, streaming live and on the air your
morning show. I'm Michael del Joernal. Jeffrey Lyons has the control.
Seven minutes after the hour. Well, first Joe Biden with
the garbage. Then they get caught editing the transcript. Then
(00:48):
you have Mark Cuban insulting all women. So if you're
a woman supporting Donald Trump, now you got to feel
like you're perceived as not a strong intelligent woman. I mean,
at some point you scratch eating are they trying to lose?
Then you have Donald Trump's viewership on Joe Rogan is
(01:09):
up to forty two million. Jd vance released yesterday afternoon.
In six hours, it was at seven million. We see
that the Republicans seem to be ahead of the Democrats,
and that's usually not the case. They matched him in
mail in and early voting. They don't seem to have
the campus dominance. There's something different with the youth in America.
(01:31):
They've had an ongoing loss in the Hispanic and Black
voting blocks. Even the unions heading into this election were
somewhat split, veterans all siding with Donald Trump. And now
we're seeing a lot of key Senate races closing and
closing very fast. What is going on on this Friday
before the Tuesday election. Well, Davidsonatti's the CEO of the
(01:51):
American Policy Roundtable, host of the Public Square, just me
saying this. I believe the crown jewel of their accomplishments
along with Christmas in America, and of course he's a
senior correspond to here on your morning show. First and foremost, David,
let's go through some of these Senate races, because I
think the numbers are tight and that leaves you with
could go either way. That's what everybody always says me
(02:12):
to look at polling, but the trends are not tight,
and they paint a very clear picture. Let's start in
one of your home states, Ohio, where Brown was leading
in June by five and a half, then in July
by four, then in August by five, then in September
by only three point three, in October by only one.
Where might that stand after the Tuesday vote? So the
(02:33):
trend shows something clear. The election is basically a toss
up for control of the Senate.
Speaker 2 (02:40):
To turnout, and it'll come down clearly to Trump turnout
as to how well he does, whether people feel that
it's it's the race is over, there's no reason to
be overly concerned. You know, turnouts is a very powerful question.
So but it's very possible that he can, that Bernie
Mario can win that seat, and it would be a
(03:00):
very important seat because right now the Democrats are projected
to lose two seats West Virginia and Montana. Now, what
people have to understand is just because it says that
the Democrats have a fifty one forty nine control of
the Senate, if you flip two, that means it's fifty
one to forty nine Republican. But that's not true because
(03:22):
the Republicans have two radical progressives in their camp. They
have Murkowski in Alaska and they have in Maine, they
have Susan Collins. So unless the Republicans go up three,
they're still down and people don't realize that. And that
third race could be the Ohio race.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
Yeah. And the only thing I would add to it
is if you know in Ohio certainly Trump is going
to win, Like we go to Wisconsin, if Trump were
to carry Wisconsin, you would think he would carry this
close race over the finish line with him. We'll talk
more about that with the House. But Wisconsin's another one
where it looks one way, but the trend is another.
So Baldwin is up by less than one at this point,
(04:04):
zero point eight, but how to get Balden was up
seven in July, six, in August, three, in September, and
now in october's down to zero point eight and here
comes election day. So the trend paints a very clear
picture and a breaking picture. It could be a surprise.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
I mean, it just depends on how much of what
we can tell translates into people showing.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
Up on election day.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
Now we've got a lower amount of mail in participation,
but a higher amount.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
Of early in person vote early.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
Yeah, but it doesn't necessarily mean we're going to have
a higher vote compan we had last time, simple numbers
to get keeping our heads as we look at this election,
basically seventy five and eighty or two numbers. To remember,
Trump roughly got seventy five million votes in twenty twenty
and Biden got eighty seventy five eighty. So you look
at one hundred and fifty five million votes, Well, this
(04:58):
race comes down to one hundred and forty five or
one hundred and fifty million. It's a very different dynamic.
Speaker 1 (05:02):
Five to ten million votes is a big deal.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
So the size of the turnout on the on the
gross number is important, and particularly important is it relates
to house races as well.
Speaker 1 (05:13):
Now, what made everybody feel very comfortable to the Republicans
were going to take control of the Senate by number
is West Virginia and Montana. Montana, I mean, I think
it's over. Tester's done in October. Now he's down six
and a half. West Virginia looks very strong for the
Republicans as well. So that goes to Pennsylvania. Casey. This
(05:36):
is fascinating. Casey was up by seven point seven in July.
You know, July is not that long ago. I just
want to remind everybody it seems like yesterday. So in
July it was seven point seven and August five point four,
in September five point two. But like in all of them,
something really different happened between September and October and it
(05:56):
fell from five to two to two six. And so
in Pennsylvania, you know, you'll wonder if Donald Trump is
to carry Pennsylvania, could he carry McCormick over the line
with him again? And you know it would be the
same response from me. But I just wanted you to
see these are the same trends in all of them.
I'll do Michigan last Slotkin was six and a half
in July, then five and August, then four in September,
(06:20):
and now three point one. I think Slotkin it will
win in Michigan, but it's the same trend going down. Nevada.
Rosen was up ten point seven in August, eight and
a half in September, fell in half to four point
two in October. I don't think if it can collapse
that quickly in Nevada, but that too would depend on
(06:42):
how the top of the ticket goes with not mail in,
not early in person, but election day voting, I mean,
I my prognostication was Republicans plus three, which in your
analogy makes them even if Jade Banks is the vice
president the tiebreaker, but it gives him all the Senate
how but these what do you make of these trends?
(07:02):
First of all, why would all these Senate races be
closing so fast?
Speaker 2 (07:06):
Well, I think it makes sense because most people don't
know who the other person is running for Senate all
the way back into July, August, September. They don't start
paying attention until Labor Day. And that's also when the
commercials begin to happen. And these states that have key
closed center races, everyone there will tell you we're doing
it every day. The people are being bombarded on these
Senate races. It's it's it's truly annoying. People are turning
(07:30):
their television sets off. They can't take it anymore. They
stop streaming everything because they just can't take it. So
that's the challenge that we have in that scenario, and
that these races are localized as well. I mean, take
for example, in Tennessee, we're sitting here, we don't hear
from Marshall Blackburn much at all for six years, but
then all of a sudden, she's on everybody's television set
and she's not even in.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
A contempt breaking, breaking, breaking China plates. Yeah maybe, but yeah.
Speaker 2 (07:56):
So it's that crazy season where the Senate reappear. So
main recognition is a part of that, the volume of
commercials and dollars spent, and then obviously what's happening at
the top of the ticket changes it. So every race
is closing, but you're right to point out will they
close sufficiently at this stage in the game, So there's
really no way to know.
Speaker 1 (08:17):
David Sinati joining us our senior correspondent and from American
Policy Roundtable and I Voters hou is is much harder track,
isn't it.
Speaker 2 (08:26):
Yeah, Michael, we do eye voters dot Com. That means
that from the State House to the White House, we
basically catalog and then distribute information on all of those
races in all fifty states. Well, you've got four hundred
and thirty five House races, which means you have at
least nine and seventy candidates, and you could have many,
many more when it comes to independence running as well.
(08:48):
So let's just rough it up to a thousand You've
got one thousand candidates just on one website. In regards
to the House races controlling the United States House, getting
a good read on one tappening the United State House.
Speaker 1 (09:01):
That's a lot of work.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
You've got four hundred and thirty five races, and every
one of them is distinct. Now they're trends in their
own environments, and they're being held in real time at
the same place. But everything is different, and every race
is different. So even with all the technology we have
and all the pundits and all the experts and all
the blah blah blah blah blah, nobody can tell you
for sure what's going to happen in the House. But
I can tell you this much.
Speaker 1 (09:24):
There's a seven.
Speaker 2 (09:26):
Vote margin right now on paper for the Republicans. If
they lose four seats, they lose the House, and you've
got a Jeffrey's Circus show.
Speaker 1 (09:35):
Then yeah, I feel I don't know if I would
do in this order, probably tied, But if I had
to put it in order, I feel best about the
Republicans controlling the Senate if they need the even to
over above I feel I don't feel I know that
the Republics are going to control the Senate. I believe
(09:56):
they're going to control it by three, which would satisfy
your number that you knew onced earlier. I feel very
strongly Donald Trump is going to win. My gut is
I don't think they're going to win the House. I
know you don't do predictions, but that's kind of where
I'm coming from.
Speaker 2 (10:11):
Oh, I think that's very possible. They've only got seven
seats to start with, right, And this is why the
real leaders of the Democrat Party, Potestin Soros and the
billionaire's club that have hollowed up the Democratic machine since
two thousand and three. They're an empus for twenty years
and who funds it all through their billionaire networks, and
(10:31):
it's all documented. This is not conspiracy. Their primary focus
is on the House and the Senate because if Donald
Trump's the next president, he's only got four years. If
they control either of the two bodies, they make Donald
Trump a lane duck the day after election. I know
that's not what people want to hear, but that's what's
really happening inside Washington. Ez. I mean, my job is
(10:54):
to sell people nutritional bars in a candy store. Okay,
it's no fun. Is what we're talking about right now
is how Washington really works and what's really going on
behind the scenes, not what the media is selling us.
And if they control the House and Jefferies is the
Chairman of the House, they will I mean, you could
(11:14):
imagine that impeachments will start day two. As soon as
to help from science the first executive order, they'll start.
Speaker 1 (11:21):
To impeach him.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
Their goal is to make him an absolute total lame duck.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
Let me cut to the chase by saying something really shocking.
My guess is, I mean they care, but they don't
care nearly as much about winning the presidency as they
do about, in my humble opinion, turning him into a
lame duck and four years later in an open election,
(11:45):
taking somebody like Wes Moore from Maryland and Barack obamaing
whoever the Republicans run, Right, that's the game they're playing.
The question is.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
They're moving on to the next four years already. That's
and in fact, they may have already been there two
years ago and the rest of us are.
Speaker 1 (12:01):
Just pitching up to them. Yeah, but they what they
don't like. I'm thoroughly convinced and trust me, Uncle George
loves to listen to me, so I have some street
cred I don't think they like how they stop griping
and actually engaged and quite frankly competed with mail in
voting and early in person voting. They don't like that
(12:23):
awakening within the Republican Party. I think that they're probably
very concerned about the youth of America. They have a
stranglehold on everything that kids watch, listen to. They thought
they did with social media, but I think if there's
anything Charlie Kirk has done well, trust me on TikTok.
They're winning hearts and minds with videos. They probably don't
(12:46):
like that, and they'll be addressing that in the next
four years. They're gonna come after our kids big better
you better lock the doors. That's coming. And I think
they're somewhat concerned over the black but they're gonna They
know they can address that with Wes more the unions
and you know, like the Hispanic voting block that's been
dwindling this whole Israel and border dilemma. They can nuance
(13:10):
their way out of that. And they think they've got
Wes Moore to address the black and the charisma and
perhaps even the youth. But there's some things on the raidar.
I am thoroughly convinced this has been so shoddy, from
the throwing Joe out there and exposing him so that
he'd have to go away picking the only thing worse
than him, Kamala Harris. They gave you the appearance of
(13:30):
a sugar high, but they've just let this. They don't.
They don't operate this poorly in the closing stretches they're operating.
I think that's their play. I would go so far
to say is I think they they would almost prefer
to lose the presidency if they can get the house
and come back with Wes Moore in four years. I
think the writing's all over the wall. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
I couldn't agree with you more, Michael. I think that's
the reality. These people understand how government works, and they
can buy and buy and buy people to agree with them.
Speaker 1 (13:56):
You never do this, But I'll ask, just for the
sake of anybody yelling at the radio, have you done
final electoral college map?
Speaker 2 (14:03):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (14:03):
Mine hasn't changed. So you have Kamala two seventy to
two sixty eight or what is it? No?
Speaker 2 (14:09):
No, I right now the whole race comes down to
Wisconsin and Arizona's Trump wins those two state two wins
with two seventy two.
Speaker 1 (14:15):
Yeah, and I got them win them both and then some.
All right, appreciate it, David Sinati. We'll be back on
the Monday. It'll be election Eve when I talk to
you next. Next, have a great weekend. This is your
Morning show with Michael del Chrono. Hey, it's Michael reminding
(14:42):
you that your morning show can be heard live each
weekday morning five to eight Central, six to nine Eastern
and great cities like Nashville, Tennessee two below, Mississippi, and Sacramento, California.
We'd love to be a part of your morning routine
and take the drive to work with you, but better
late than never. We're grateful you're here now. Enjoy the podcast.
Speaker 3 (15:00):
It's about talking to Angela Merkel about the lack of
cheves driving around Germany and the tariffs that are imposed,
and how that he believes that European automakers, German ones
in particular, are taking advantage of some pretty lax regulations.
So he's been suggesting tariffs or reform to the tariff
(15:21):
rules because that the former president says, you know, we've
got assembly plans here, but the cars and the parts
are all manufactured there in Germany.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
So we had the key inflation gage showing positive signs,
but again, Americans paying far to it. When you really
boil it down, I think it's seventy percent. Our wages
haven't kept up with the inflation of cost seventy percent
on vehicles, I mean vehicles, groceries and housing, right, those
(15:49):
are just our shelter, our transportation. But that's what's burying
the American people. What do we think we're going to
get with the job support today? Yeah, and we also,
by the way, haven't seen mortgage rates come down. In fact,
the one greates.
Speaker 3 (16:01):
Have been going up thereast few weeks and back over
seven percent again, and that's a big weight on a
huge sector of the economy. We're just not moving houses still,
and that brings down real estate agents. That means you're
selling fewer homes, you're selling fewer sofas and fewer big
screen TVs. The title agency isn't getting the work. You know,
(16:22):
anyone in that real estate sector knows how. A lot
of that filters down through the rest of the economy.
So well, getting that going is really important. You know,
the jobs numbers from ADP were more positive than expected
earlier this week as well, so perhaps they'll that'll they'll outperform.
What are they looking at? Two thirty I think was
the ADP number this week. I don't have it in
(16:42):
front of me, but that sounds about right. And what's
the report coming out this morning? I think it's going
to be eight eastern or somewhere in the thirty Yeah,
one hour from the hour, yeah, fifties, three minutes from now.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
Yeah, So we'll get the we'll have that, okay, So
we'll have that before your final visit with us. There
you go, Well, then I'll have then I'll be able
to get you a full update. An ah, He's always
on top of it. You don't, you're not really. I
can tell you're not. Like if I were to ask
you if you've done your electoral college map, I know
the answer is no, right correct, Yeah, just.
Speaker 3 (17:11):
You're not a fan of politics period. That is incredibly inaccurate.
Who knows, so why don't you do a map? Because
I'm not a nerd.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
That on that note, one who is a nerd ist,
John Decker. We're going to have our electoral college map
off coming up. I was gonna get some tips from you, yeah,
before we left, But you obviously don't. You don't want
to play electoral college map. You're not a nerd. That's
roy O'Neil. He'll be back by the way with the
jobs number report when he's with us next hour, right,
if you're well. They were out west, probably the biggest
(17:49):
surprise Donald Trump in New Mexico and why but the
candidates were out in the west and southwest, mainly to
hit those two key swing states Nevada and Arizona. With
just as left in the election, Mark Mayfield fills us in.
Speaker 4 (18:02):
Former President Trump spoke at a rally in solid blue.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
New Mexico Thursday afternoon.
Speaker 5 (18:07):
If we could bring God down from heaven, he could
be the vote counter.
Speaker 6 (18:11):
We would win this, We'd win California, We'd win.
Speaker 1 (18:15):
A lot of states.
Speaker 4 (18:16):
He also held events in Arizona and Nevada, with Trump
officials claiming there's momentum in the entire region mice precident.
Harris meanwhile brought the star power on Thursday, with the
musical group Los Ti, Grace del Norte joining her in Phoenix,
and Jennifer Lopez.
Speaker 1 (18:29):
In Las Vegas, I'm Mark Mayfield, and Arizona judge says
thousands of voters' names affected by a technical glitch must
be released. Matt Mattinson reports.
Speaker 6 (18:38):
The Thursday ruling effects around ninety eight thousand residents. They
were part of a database era where those with a
driver's license issued before nineteen ninety six did not have
proof of US citizenship on file. This comes after a
conservative group challenge for those names to be released and
verified by county recorders. Secretary of State Adrian Fontes said
he believes most of the voters are US citizens and
(19:00):
pointed at safety and logistical concerns as reasons for keeping
the names under wraps. The Arizona Supreme Court previously ruled
that those voters can still cast their ballots next week.
In Phoenix, I'm at Mattinson.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
Big Lots is being sold to Nexus Capital Management. Brian
Shook as the very latest on that store.
Speaker 5 (19:19):
The discount retail chain filed for bankruptcy earlier this summer.
It was recently sold for seven hundred and sixty five
million dollars. Nexa's Capital Management also has ties to Dollar
Shave Club, Tom's, and many others. It's expected to take
over Big Lots stores in December.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
I'm Brian Shuck. It's always nuanced, right. Inflation compared to
last year or compared to pre COVID a new key
inflation gage showing some positive signs, but for the American
people still doesn't match reality. They're paying far too much
for things like groceries. Lisa Taylor has more.
Speaker 7 (19:53):
The Commerce Department reported today the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price
Index dropped to two point one percent last month on
an annual basis. That is in line with the expectations.
But even with inflation slowing, prices are still high, but
they're rising at a slower rate. Fin'ly said Taylor.
Speaker 1 (20:09):
Okay, I gotta be honest with you. I never watched
Squid Games the first time around. It was big with
my kids. But the first trailers for Squid Games two
is now out. A second season of the record breaking
Netflix show takes place three years after the first one
finds player four fifty six giving up on going to
the States and returning to the deadly competition. The show's
(20:31):
executive producer has said Squid Games will end after a
third season that'll premiere sometime next year. Squid Games two
hits Netflix on December twenty sixth, A little Something the
day after gondessimiss for me, I was just excited that
I didn't notice the second season of The Diplomat was out,
so I started watching it yesterday. And well, when it
comes to Halloween candy, you know, collecting, sorting, trading, eating,
(20:56):
but not in California. One agency doesn't want you to
do that thing. Eat it. Pre Tennis has more.
Speaker 8 (21:02):
The Super Dennis say they'll buy your children's candy for
a dollar a pound now through November eighth. They say
it's to keep a candy out of the kid's mouths
and prevent cavities. And they've done this candy buy back
since two thousand and four, collecting more than twenty thousand
pounds of chocolate gummies, peanut butter cups, and more. The
loot they buy back isn't destined for the dump. It's
(21:22):
actually donated to active duty military members who hopefully have
a better grasp of a toothbrush than kids. I'm pre Tennis,
take our Snickers bars.
Speaker 1 (21:34):
This is Andy Hickson, formerly of Nashville and now living
in Detroit, Michigan. Thanks to iHeartRadio, My Morning show is
your morning show. It's your morning show. John Decker should
be dialing in any moment. I don't know. There's any
chance he's going to check it out, that's for sure.
And when he does, we're going to compare electoral college maps.
(21:54):
The way this began was well number one, I think
it kind of began with RFK Junior, and then we
started having discussions, and so at one point I had
said to him, well, when do you do your map? Well,
I kind of wait till about, you know, a day
or two before the election. So then the choice became
very simple, do we do it on the Friday before
(22:15):
the election or the Monday. We chose today, the friday
before the election, So we'll see what his final electoral
college map looks like and who he has winning and
by what, and I will share mine. And we have
determined that if I win, he has to fly here
and we do an old fashioned sleepover. So it's like
filling out your bracket for the NCAA tournament.
Speaker 3 (22:33):
What you're doing.
Speaker 1 (22:34):
It's so funny that you say that, because you know,
I kind of you know, Rory likes to be a
jerk to me sometimes, and I love that whole stick.
But if if when I say you're not really into politics,
and you say, well, nothing could be further from the truth,
But I just don't do an electoral college map, Well
that's like saying and I am, by the way, March Madness,
the Masters, the super Bowl while they've ruined the super Bowl,
(22:56):
and the World Series are my favorite events. All right,
So but March madness. The whole fun is having a bracket.
That doesn't make you a nerd. That's a part of
the experience. Sure, And so the map is key. Now
how much thought you put into it. You know, you
can't really see the brakes and polling like you used to.
So you got to have a lot more discernment, You
got to feel it more, You got to dig deeper.
(23:17):
This is where we get into mail in voting versus
in person early voting, and what percentage are Republican and Democrats.
And then in these independent states that is so nuanced
and you have to kind of try to look in
and see, well, what might an independent be thinking. Do
we really think they're fixated only on abortion, climate change,
(23:38):
insulin prices, price gouging, or do their concerns go beyond that?
Sounds nerdy? The voting blocks are very interesting. There are
things that the Democrats used to be able to count on,
and that was young voters dominating campuses. They can't even
dominate elementary schools anymore. There's change in the air, so
(24:00):
they don't have the young vote like they used to.
The Hispanic vote has been dwindling for about two decades now,
and maybe it's actually flipped into the Republican's favor. They're
particularly having a problem with black votes mail black votes
this time around. The unions weren't even in the bag.
Right Workers' Union actually supported Trump, though they wouldn't give
Trump the nomination. And then probably the two biggest things
(24:25):
that are kind of nuanced is usually the Democrats are
great at mail in voting, early voting, and ground game.
The Republicans usually gripe about it and only vote on
election day. That's not the case this time around. And
you don't have the luxury of hiding Kamala Harrison plain
sight the way you did Joe Biden in a basement,
distracted by COVID, And you don't even have control of
(24:47):
the mainstream media because it's not relevant anymore. Joe Rogan,
Trump's all of them put together, It's a different world.
Megan Kelly, Tucker Carlson, the influence they used to have
on it's now ten times that influence, and they're not
on any network. And the Republicans seem to be where
the people are. And then Elon Musk and his control
(25:09):
now of sochalf of social media, especially politically owning X.
These are all game changers that didn't exist. You start
comparing to where things were when it was Trump versus Clinton, Well,
where was Tucker and Megan Kelly? Then where was Joe Kelly?
Then who owned Twitter? Then? What was Twitter like? Then?
(25:31):
Compare it to the election four years ago? Four years ago?
Are you kidding me? They were controlling the narrative through
the mainstream media, they were controlling any opposing thought. They
had weaponized COVID, They had the mail in voting, in
the shadow campaign in full swing. None of that exists
(25:55):
this time around. So in essence, you can't you can't
see a break maybe in the polls. You got to
feel it and discern it and then put your map together.
All right, we got John Decker, John, you just missed me,
wax poetically while I waited on you. I've set the
(26:16):
entire table for this competition. What I'm not clear on
is if I win. I thought, if I win and
then you try to switch it to me, come there.
If I win, I wanted you to fly here because
I'm telling you, I think we're going to become very
close friends. But I want to have, like when we
were teenagers, a good old fashioned sleepover. We put our pajamazon,
we watched Dave American President, we eat a little pasta,
(26:37):
we laugh, we talk. You know, a sleepover. What was
it going to be the condition? If you win? What
do I have to do?
Speaker 9 (26:45):
Oh? I don't know, Jess.
Speaker 1 (26:47):
You don't want anything from me? Do you not even catch?
Speaker 9 (26:51):
Well? Look that's what you want. How about if I
come to Nashville and we go to.
Speaker 1 (26:55):
A Predators game?
Speaker 9 (26:56):
You know that to me sounds more appealing to me
than bend out.
Speaker 1 (27:00):
Nobody wants to do sleepovers anymore, you know, like what
life was fun? All right? So if you win, I
fly you here, we go to a Predators game. Then
I guess if that's the case. If I win, then yeah,
I come to DC and you give me the two
of the press room and everything. Yeah, you don't think
you could get back air Force one.
Speaker 9 (27:15):
Do you No, I can't that too. I can't bring that.
Speaker 2 (27:19):
Sorry.
Speaker 1 (27:20):
All right. Now, for the purposes of this, because we're
down to three minutes, I'm going to assume that we
all have the similar things. So really where there would
be differences is Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada.
I think we can agree on that, right. Everything else
is going to be a master.
Speaker 6 (27:35):
Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 9 (27:36):
So you and I both start out with two twenty
six to two nineteen. At least that's what my map
certainly looks like if you factor out those seven swing states.
Two twenty six for Harris, two nineteen for Donald Trump.
Speaker 1 (27:47):
All right, so let's start on the West coast Nevada.
Speaker 9 (27:52):
Nevada is a state that Donald Trump lost both in
twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. I believe he will lose
it once again in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1 (28:01):
Okay, Now, keep in mind in twenty sixteen, Hillary was
up in Nevada by two, Biden was up by four.
Heading into this weekend, Trump on a Real Color Politics
average is up just under a point at point nine.
I got Nevada red. I know it's going to be close.
And you may be right, and I may be wrong,
but I've got it read all right. Arizona.
Speaker 9 (28:22):
Arizona is a state that Donald Trump will win this
election cycle after losing it narrowly in twenty twenty. A
reminder just before we go on, I've been to each
and every one of these battleground states quite a bit
over the past few months. And also a reminder, I
got twenty sixteen right, and I got twenty twenty right.
Speaker 1 (28:40):
Hey, give a trash talk till the end. All right, Georgie,
I think we're gonna agree. Donald Trump's going to carry Georgia.
Speaker 9 (28:49):
We do agree he is going to carry the state
of Georgia.
Speaker 1 (28:52):
Now they're all tough North Carolina.
Speaker 9 (28:56):
I think that what we should do. If you agree
with this, let's go to Carolina and Pennsylvania last, and
let's go to Michigan and Wisconsin first.
Speaker 1 (29:05):
That he's taken over the show. I like this about you.
These were very very difficult for me. I had a
couple of things, and there's a lot of different nuance
in this. But when push came to shove, if if
Donald Trump carries Pennsylvania, Michigan, like is likely to go
with it. And you know, when you look at Pennsylvania,
for example, Clinton was up three at this point because
things were breaking away from her. Biden was at three six.
(29:27):
Trump is actually up. I think it's going to be close.
But I like, I like Donald Trump to carry Pennsylvania.
Therefore I gave him Michigan, Wisconsin, I think is looking.
You know, it's really tough to call because you don't
know what the dependents are going to do. It's a
toss up. And I went ahead, believe it or not.
And this is where you're going to really get excited.
I gave Donald Trump Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Speaker 9 (29:49):
Okay, you know, and that's possible. And I think that
what you suggest is a replication of what happened in
twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. Whoever won a one battleground
state in the Blue Wall States won them all. So
I don't, you know, disagree with your your rationale in
terms of doing it.
Speaker 1 (30:06):
I have what's your we have what's your Oh gosh,
how are we going to do this? We got five seconds.
What's your final number? Final number?
Speaker 9 (30:14):
Let's see, we have two seventy six Harris, two sixty
two Trump and I.
Speaker 1 (30:18):
Got Trump three twelve, to the Democrats to twenty six.
We're all in this together. This is your Morning Show
with Mike Openhial and showing now
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