January 27, 2025 • 28 mins
Plans are already underway for COP30 to pick up the baton and tackle COP29's unfinished business. The 2025 climate conference is set to take place in Belem, Brazil, a gateway to the Amazon rainforest. And last week, André Corrêa do Lago was named COP30 president. Corrêa do Lago currently serves as Brazil’s Secretary for Climate, Energy and the Environment, and he spoke with Akshat Rathi at COP29 in Baku, in November. He says that although holding a global summit in Belem poses logistical challenges, the symbolism of the location holds “fantastic political power.”
Explore further:
- Bloomberg Green reporter Simone Iglesias's story on Corrêa do Lago's plans as COP30 President
- Past episode about Azerbaijan’s challenges with hosting COP29 in Baku
- Past episode with Brazil's chief climate negotiator, Liliam Chagas, about the viability of a fossil fuel nonproliferation treaty
Zero is a production of Bloomberg Green. Our producer is Mythili Rao. Special thanks to Simone Iglesias, Siobhan Wagner, Ethan Steinberg, Blake Maples, and Jessica Beck. Thoughts or suggestions? Email us at zeropod@bloomberg.net. For more coverage of climate change and solutions, visit https://www.bloomberg.com/green.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hi, It's Sukha. There's been a lot of news from
North America this week as Trump kicks off his first
week in office. But in other news from South America,
Brazil has named the COP thirty president. It's Andre Korea
the logo, and I had a chance to speak with
him back in Baku at COP twenty nine. We're bringing
(00:20):
you that episode again today, so take a listen, and
after that go check out the story from my colleague
Simon Iglesias, who got up with Andre shortly after the
announcement was made. We'll link that story in the show notes.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Welcome to Zero.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
I am Akshatrati this week Good Cop, Bad Cop.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
I had to use it sometime.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
I'm in Baku. Yes, still in Baku for COP twenty nine.
It's week to which means the biggest heads of state
have gone home, as have many climate celebrities like Al
Gore and Theresa May. Now negotiators are getting down to business.
We are still days away from knowing what agreement, if any,
might be reached, and Zero will come to you with
(01:18):
how it all went down next week. In the meantime,
there are already questions about what the next COP might
look like.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
And for good reasons.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
As we explode in a previous episode, the small state
of Azerbaijan has had its hands full in hosting fifty
thousand delegates and advocates who arrived in Baku from around
the world. Next year, Brazil will play host, but not
in Rio on sub Paolo. Instead, the conference is said
to be in the city of Belem, the gateway to
(01:50):
the Amazon, a beautiful coastal city that might not have
the infrastructure to host fifty thousand people, but Brazil has
been trying to position itself as a leader on climate
and it wants people who come to COP thirty to
realize what's on the line. But Brazil is also growing.
(02:10):
It's all in gas production and quickly reaching levels that
match the United Arab Emirates. So I was eager to
catch up with Andre core at the Logo, Brazil's Secretary
for Climate, Energy and the Environment. He's rumored to be
the next COP president, something he wouldn't confirm on the record,
but he wasn't shy in answering just how much Brazil
(02:32):
has to do to make COP thirty a success, from
challenging logistics to fracturing geopolitics, and what COP twenty nine
must get.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
Right to give Brazil a better footing.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
Andre, welcome to the show.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Hello, it's lovely to be here.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
Now tell us what Brazil is hoping to get out
of COP twenty nine specifically.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
Yeah. Look, you know that one of the basic principles
of brazil foreign policy is to strengthen multilateralism. So we want,
obviously Cop twenty nine to be very successful. We believe
in the UNFCCC, we believe in the Paris Accord, and
we have to show the world that this is the
right way of doing things.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
And at Copter and nine there are going to be
two things that need to be worked on. One, it seems,
has already been worked on, which is Article six. Are
you happy with the Article six outcome?
Speaker 2 (03:41):
I think that to have an outcome is already a
very good news. I like quite a lot the solution,
but now we have to transform it into something practical
because the problem is that we've been thinking about that
for nine years and we saw that in general, carbon
(04:02):
markets and everything else have been very complicated in recent years,
and I think that this decision will be extremely important
to put some order into that. We think that this
is a very important step.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
So you know that among the things that were approved
our possibility of old credits being grandfathered into the Article
six program and they could be on sale as soon
as January one, twenty twenty five. And many of those
old credits, vast majority of them are renewable energy credits,
(04:36):
which many experts have said are junk and really should
not have been allowed to grandfather into a new market
that is hoping to be quite credible so that it
can sustain and it could grow. Are you not worried
about the credibility of the old offsets?
Speaker 2 (04:51):
Look, we need to have environmental integrity in that operation
or we're going to destroy the already battered carbon market.
Carbon markets can be I think can be amazing, but
it's true that these years have been very confusing. So
we have to analyze that and somehow, you know, in
(05:15):
a negotiation, for good things to pass, sometimes you need
other things also to pass. So let's see how we
can manage that. We are very concerned with forestry credits
because we believe that they are the most important credits
possible because as we know, restoration of forests are probably
(05:38):
today the most science supported form of sink that you
can create. And these credits, for instance, have been very
much discredited. I'm sorry for using the word but and
this is absurd because if you believe in urgency to
fight climate change, you need to do the best possible
(06:02):
things as soon as possible. It's useless also to try
to do the perfect system if we know that we
have very few years ahead of us. So let's try
to be ambitious and at the same time to be
practical and not to be unhappy in three years when
we discovered that we could have done many things. Some
of them may fail, some of them may not have
(06:25):
environmental integrity, but let's concentrate on the majority. They try
to have the overwhelming majority of what do we do
with environmental integrity.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
The second thing on the agenda is the new quantified
goal on climate finance, and that is crucial for developing
countries like Brazil, like India, but so many other developing
countries to step up their climate actions. And without a
good outcome on a larger amount of money supporting the
(06:59):
action of developing com you're not likely to get very
ambitious targets set under the nationally determined contributions, and that
will have so many downstream impacts it will affect COP thirty,
which is going to come to Brazil. So on NCQG,
where do you think things stand right now and how
(07:21):
much of an ambitious deal could we get.
Speaker 2 (07:24):
We're not in the right direction. That I think is
quite clear, and I think that we have to understand
the Convention. Although we are all developing countries under a
certain category in the Convention. But the truth is that
you have some very low income countries that really need
(07:46):
full support. That it's even absurd to think that they
have to mitigate when they are absolutely not responsible for
emissions and they have to take care of schools, they
have to take care of health and other things, and
their action is not going to have such a big
impact because they emit very little. It's very unfair somehow.
(08:09):
And then you have the middle income developing countries like Brazil,
like Indonesia, like India, and we can do a lot
to mitigate climate change, and we are doing a lot
to mitigate climate change, and the sums that we're talking
about under the NCQG is very far from what we
know is reality. Most of the studies have been showing
(08:32):
that we're going to need trillians and we're talking about
some hundred billions that are very necessary. I'm not going
to say they are not necessary, but they are not
the full solution. And then you have to organize the
finance in a way that it can fulfill the needs
(08:53):
of the lower income countries, which I think the NCQG
can deal with that, but we need much more money
for these middle income countries to do what they need
to do, and this is not going to come in
the n seq G. I don't see the developed countries
having the same sense of urgency that they proclaim as
(09:15):
climate change. Our proclimaty is very close, it's very close,
but the this urgency is not in the finances. You
don't see the same sense of urgency. So what do
countries like in the Indonesia and Brazil, for instance, do
Brazil worked on that very hard on the G twenty
in our presidency of the G twenty now and how
(09:37):
much we have to mainstream climates into investments in general
and not in specific funds. We are huge economies, the
developing countries that are in the G twenty, and we
perfectly understand that it's not going to be grants, It's
not going to be that that is going to solve
(09:57):
our issue. The problem is that we pay too much
for foreign capital. We cannot afford to pay. It's completely
absurd that we have to pay such a high price
to have this capital. So we have to work on
many fields. So the NCQG is one of them. Is
extremely important, but we also have to be practical and
(10:19):
think that we have very few years ahead of it.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
Yes, so if I am hearing you right, you're saying NCQG,
the needs are clearly in the trillions, but there is
very little possibility or political feasibility of the trillions being approved.
But the hundreds of billions may get approved, and that
means the gap has to be filled in other ways.
And those other ways are what.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
The other ways are the mainstream of the economy. Countries
like Brazil, Indonesia or India. We are very investible countries.
I mean, there are many things to be done in
our countries and our economies are huge and our population
is huge, and so we have to lower the cost
of capital. I think will have an amazing impact. Then
(11:06):
you have also to recognize that countries like ours, including China,
we've been doing so many things inside our country without
foreign support and this is never taken into consideration. For instance,
fighting deforestation in Brazil, ninety percent of what we spend
(11:26):
is from our budget, is not international support. So this
recognition of what we're doing and the importance that we
invest in our own efforts to combat climate change is
not taken into consideration. So there is this very strange
idea of increasing the donor base, which is completely getting
(11:46):
out of the main subject. The main subject is what
are the developed countries going to provide for the developing
countries under the rules of the Paris Accord.
Speaker 1 (11:58):
Are there steps that can be taken are being taken
to lower the cost of capital coming into Brazil, India
and Indonesia.
Speaker 2 (12:04):
We're trying In the G twenty, I think that there
was quite a good progress because we put together for
the first time in the G twenty the ministers of
finance and the central bankers talking together with their ministers
of foreign Affairs and ministers of climate and it was
quite surprising because even in the developed countries they hardly
(12:26):
knew each other. So I think this is a progress.
But what really drives us is the sense of urgency,
and the sense of urgency cannot only be in ambition.
It has to be financed. It has to be action.
Speaker 1 (12:41):
Where is the next G twenty happening.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
In South Africa? So that's great, But I hear.
Speaker 1 (12:47):
That the South African Economy ministry and the finance ministry
do not get on with each other, so they might
not do what you did so successfully under the Brazil
G twenty. Is that right?
Speaker 2 (12:59):
I think that. I have to tell you that the
biggest differences between finance ministries and climate ministries that I
saw in the G twenty was in some European countries.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
So do you think given the tense negotiations, which is
the case every COP, but especially when it comes to money,
and there's sorts of money we are talking at COP
twenty nine, do you think there will be a deal
at the end.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
I do hope that because I hope that for two reasons,
First as a citizen of the planet, and second because
Brazil is going to preside the next COP, so we
need a successful COP twenty nine.
Speaker 1 (13:42):
So between now and the next COP, Donald Trump is
going to come to power, and he has said that
he will pull the US out of the Paris Agreement,
which is something he did in his first term in
twenty seventeen. Last time, around, the impact wasn't very much
cause of rules. He only left in November twenty twenty
(14:03):
and jan twenty twenty one, Joe Biden joined the US
into the Paris Agreement again. This time he can have
much greater impact because he will leave within a year,
and he could pull the US out of the UN
Climate Treaty altogether. So when you meet your US counterparts
right now who are from the Biden administration, do you
take them seriously?
Speaker 2 (14:24):
I take them very seriously because they are really serious negotiators.
But we have to try to find a new way
of dealing with the US. But we cannot think that
the US is just the government of the US. The
US is universities, scientists, states, cities, and many of them,
(14:47):
most of them believe in climate change and believe the
things have to be done. So if you just take California,
it's one of the biggest economies in the world. So
if you concentrate your efforts on the sectors of the
US that can contribute to this debate, it's already a lot.
It's obvious that it would be much better to have
(15:08):
the whole government together. Now, what I also believe is
that even the most anti climate personality in America or whatever,
will rethink about it if he sees that he can
have profits working with climate change. So see for instance, Texas.
(15:30):
Texas has become one of the states of the United
States that uses most renewables with the wind energy, with
solar energy. Why it's not an ideological decision like people
say that California is. This was exclusively because of the cost,
because it was a good business. So for those who
(15:50):
don't believe in those discussions, let's talk with the language
of business with others. Let's talk with the appropriate language
of each one.
Speaker 1 (16:02):
Say there is a deal at COP twenty nine on
the NCQG, and then the US pulls out of the
Paris Agreement. The US is the world's largest economy. It would,
I believe, have to promise the largest sum to be
given under the NCQG. If the US gets out, what
happens to the NCQG.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
I think that it would be quite logical not to
expect the US to be one of the main funders
of the NCQG.
Speaker 1 (16:28):
Even now, so going into the deal, you don't think that'll.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
Happen because even if you're negotiating with the bide and administration,
the truth is that the signs that President Trump has
already shown are very clear.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
And so if what happens at the NCQG and the
US is backtracking from its commitments shows up at COP thirty,
how are you going to make sure COP thirty is
a success. Because the NCQG will be a challenge. Not
enough countries will have submitted ambitious NDCs. They will look
(17:04):
at the US, the world's largest historical emitter, and say
they're out. Why should we contribute? And you get into
a new, bigger fight when you come to COP thirty.
So what are you doing now to avoid that?
Speaker 2 (17:18):
Well, I think we cannot avoid that. We have to
deal with that, and so we'll have to find some
intelligence answers to those intelligent questions. But that is reality.
We have to face reality like climate change if you
believe in it. So it's a big challenge, there is
no doubt about it.
Speaker 1 (17:43):
After the break, more from my conversation with Brazilian Secretary
for Climate, Energy and the Environment Andre Corea the logo.
Speaker 3 (17:50):
By the way, if you've been.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
Enjoying this episode, please take a moment to rate and
review the show on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. It helps
other listeners find the show.
Speaker 2 (18:05):
Now.
Speaker 1 (18:06):
COP thirty is currently scheduled to happen in Bellm. We
just got attendance figures today and there are expecting fifty
two thousand people coming to this COP. Now, this is
the capital of a country. It's a small country, but
it's the capital of a country, and you are able
to manage that crowd. My understanding is Bellim is a
(18:26):
really good place to go to just understand what the
Amazon is, but it's not got the capacity to host
fifty thousand people, let alone eighty thousand people which showed
up in Dubai. So what is the plan currently for
COP thirty in Brazil?
Speaker 2 (18:44):
In Bellem? The plan is to have a COP that
is proportional to what the city can offer, but also
a COP that will leave a very positive legacy to
the city. So we cannot build pharonic things just for
(19:05):
a coup. If we are going to improve the city
for the COP, it's to improve the city itself and
there will be a legacy for the population. Now, we're
going to have to do it differently, obviously very differently
than Dubai was or what Baku is operating. But you
can be sure that we will be very transparent about
(19:27):
what is possible to have in Bilin. We have a
full team of the people that are organizing the Bilim
Cup here seeing all the challenges that we will have
to face. But the symbolism of having it in the Amazon,
and the fact that Brazil is developing countries with many
(19:51):
success stories but also with huge challenges. The fact that
Brazil assumes to do it in a complex place, I
think it has a fantastic political power. We are not
trying to hide the problems we have, and as you know,
deforestation is our main source of emissions. We have a
(20:12):
very strange profile of emissions. So we are taking the
world to the place where we have our biggest source
of emission, and we're going to show to the world
how complex the Amazon region is. With the best food
in Brazil on one side, the most beautiful natural place
you can imagine, but a city that still has lots
(20:34):
of very strong social challenges. So I think that it
is quite refreshing to have a country. Obviously I'm suspicious
because I'm Brazilian, but I'm quite proud of being a
country that doesn't hide its problem. It's a country that
is showing the world its problems. And let's try to
work on that. Everybody has its problem and we are
(20:55):
showing ours very clearly to everybody.
Speaker 1 (20:58):
So how many people do you think, well, then will
be able to fit.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
I think that the organizers are working on fifty thousand people.
They are working on fifty thousand, but President Lula wants
very strong participation of civil society. So we'll have to
measure how many people. I mean, because the negotiators, as
you know, is something that doesn't move very much, is
(21:24):
around twenty thousand people. Then you have the UNFCCC staff
is one hundred. There's like eight hundred two one thousand people.
So we're dealing with the realistic numbers. But President Lula
doesn't want, you know, to let's have less people from
civil society. No, we need lots of president civilzens. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (21:45):
Now, Brazil produces more oil than the UAE does, and
President Lula has asked Petrobrass to produce even more oil.
How is that going to play in your NBC.
Speaker 2 (21:58):
We have to you with this very very challenging reality
is that last year Brazil's main expert was oil. So
from an economic point of view, this is obviously interpreted
by most of the Brazilians as something that we didn't expect,
(22:19):
and this only happened because of the incredible technological progress
of Petro Brass that is looking for oil in places
that are extremely complex and technologically difficult in places to
exploit oil. So there is a part of Brazil that
is extremely proud of Petrobras to have found oil in
(22:42):
such deep areas. And then on the other side, we
all are conscious that we have to transition away from
fossil fuels. So this is the big debate we're going
to have in Brazil next year because we have to
arrive at COP thirty lead by example as our Minister
of the environment, but in US a silver always says.
Speaker 1 (23:03):
So over here, you're hoping there will be a big
financing push that will hopefully make it possible for countries
to come with new ambitions in Bellum at COP thirty.
What other metrics are you setting for success? First is
that countries need to come up with new ambition with
(23:25):
goals set out to twenty thirty five and ideally start
to finally reduce emissions that paces needed. What are the
other priorities?
Speaker 2 (23:33):
I think that to try to make it as simple
as possible, we feel that urgency has to be everywhere
when we talk about climate change. So this is progress
in these debates that will make a huge difference. So
it's not only due an FECC. It's not only the
(23:54):
Paris Accord. It's the economy in general. It's the behavior
of people that have to take to consideration the urgency,
economic theory, ministries of finance, ministries of transportation. I mean,
it's not that's the sense of the n disis is
that the NDCs create a number that is an objective,
(24:14):
and each country is going to find its way to
reach it, and we have to do it together because,
as you are saying, if the richest country in the
world is going to backtrack maybe on some of its commitments,
why the others are going to follow. So we have
to build something really strong in which the world is
(24:35):
convinced of the urgency. How are we going to do that?
This I cannot give you the answer now.
Speaker 1 (24:43):
So in a way, now COP thirty becomes how to
defend the climate consensus even as the US leaves the
Paris a card.
Speaker 2 (24:53):
Yeah, but remember that when we say the US is
leaving us, scientists are not leaving us. Businesses, not living
and we have to think that the symbolic billionaire that
supports President Trump is eln Musk. Elon Musk is the
guy that made America fall in love with electric cars.
(25:13):
So there are many dimensions in America. We cannot oversimplify
what it is. And I mean, if the oil companies
find a way of contributing to the transition away from
fossil fuels, that would be super welcome. I mean everybody
has to come with solutions in their own way, in
(25:38):
a reasonable with reasonable costs, and with reasonable social costs.
Because we have seen in some countries that the fight
against climate change has made some of the basic services
more expensive. This is not the solution. You lose the
support of the population for this fight.
Speaker 1 (25:54):
So I'm looking forward to the new Brazil climate plan.
But giving Petro Brass is state backed, are we also
going to see a new climate plan from your state
backed oil company.
Speaker 2 (26:07):
Ah, that's a good question. Let's talk to Peter Brass together.
Thank you for coming on the show.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
Thank you very much, Thank you for listening to zero.
And now for the sound of the week. This is
(26:35):
the sound of cop Every year, almost always there is
wooden flooring newly put to turn something into a cop
venue and have thousands and thousands of people walk across it,
making this drumbeat of a noise that's the sound of
(27:03):
the footsteps inside the Baku Olympic Stadium, the drumbeat that
dictates the pace of negotiations. If you liked this episode,
please take a moment to rate or review the show
on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Also check out Bloombergreen's coverage
of COP twenty nine. It's free to read, share this
episode with a friend or with someone who is ready
(27:24):
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You can get in touch at zero pod at Bloomberg
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(27:45):
and Jessica bank I am Aksha Thrati Back soon.
Hi, It's Sukha. There's been a lot of news from
North America this week as Trump kicks off his first
week in office. But in other news from South America,
Brazil has named the COP thirty president. It's Andre Korea
the logo, and I had a chance to speak with
him back in Baku at COP twenty nine. We're bringing
(00:20):
you that episode again today, so take a listen, and
after that go check out the story from my colleague
Simon Iglesias, who got up with Andre shortly after the
announcement was made. We'll link that story in the show notes.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Welcome to Zero.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
I am Akshatrati this week Good Cop, Bad Cop.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
I had to use it sometime.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
I'm in Baku. Yes, still in Baku for COP twenty nine.
It's week to which means the biggest heads of state
have gone home, as have many climate celebrities like Al
Gore and Theresa May. Now negotiators are getting down to business.
We are still days away from knowing what agreement, if any,
might be reached, and Zero will come to you with
(01:18):
how it all went down next week. In the meantime,
there are already questions about what the next COP might
look like.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
And for good reasons.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
As we explode in a previous episode, the small state
of Azerbaijan has had its hands full in hosting fifty
thousand delegates and advocates who arrived in Baku from around
the world. Next year, Brazil will play host, but not
in Rio on sub Paolo. Instead, the conference is said
to be in the city of Belem, the gateway to
(01:50):
the Amazon, a beautiful coastal city that might not have
the infrastructure to host fifty thousand people, but Brazil has
been trying to position itself as a leader on climate
and it wants people who come to COP thirty to
realize what's on the line. But Brazil is also growing.
(02:10):
It's all in gas production and quickly reaching levels that
match the United Arab Emirates. So I was eager to
catch up with Andre core at the Logo, Brazil's Secretary
for Climate, Energy and the Environment. He's rumored to be
the next COP president, something he wouldn't confirm on the record,
but he wasn't shy in answering just how much Brazil
(02:32):
has to do to make COP thirty a success, from
challenging logistics to fracturing geopolitics, and what COP twenty nine
must get.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
Right to give Brazil a better footing.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
Andre, welcome to the show.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Hello, it's lovely to be here.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
Now tell us what Brazil is hoping to get out
of COP twenty nine specifically.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
Yeah. Look, you know that one of the basic principles
of brazil foreign policy is to strengthen multilateralism. So we want,
obviously Cop twenty nine to be very successful. We believe
in the UNFCCC, we believe in the Paris Accord, and
we have to show the world that this is the
right way of doing things.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
And at Copter and nine there are going to be
two things that need to be worked on. One, it seems,
has already been worked on, which is Article six. Are
you happy with the Article six outcome?
Speaker 2 (03:41):
I think that to have an outcome is already a
very good news. I like quite a lot the solution,
but now we have to transform it into something practical
because the problem is that we've been thinking about that
for nine years and we saw that in general, carbon
(04:02):
markets and everything else have been very complicated in recent years,
and I think that this decision will be extremely important
to put some order into that. We think that this
is a very important step.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
So you know that among the things that were approved
our possibility of old credits being grandfathered into the Article
six program and they could be on sale as soon
as January one, twenty twenty five. And many of those
old credits, vast majority of them are renewable energy credits,
(04:36):
which many experts have said are junk and really should
not have been allowed to grandfather into a new market
that is hoping to be quite credible so that it
can sustain and it could grow. Are you not worried
about the credibility of the old offsets?
Speaker 2 (04:51):
Look, we need to have environmental integrity in that operation
or we're going to destroy the already battered carbon market.
Carbon markets can be I think can be amazing, but
it's true that these years have been very confusing. So
we have to analyze that and somehow, you know, in
(05:15):
a negotiation, for good things to pass, sometimes you need
other things also to pass. So let's see how we
can manage that. We are very concerned with forestry credits
because we believe that they are the most important credits
possible because as we know, restoration of forests are probably
(05:38):
today the most science supported form of sink that you
can create. And these credits, for instance, have been very
much discredited. I'm sorry for using the word but and
this is absurd because if you believe in urgency to
fight climate change, you need to do the best possible
(06:02):
things as soon as possible. It's useless also to try
to do the perfect system if we know that we
have very few years ahead of us. So let's try
to be ambitious and at the same time to be
practical and not to be unhappy in three years when
we discovered that we could have done many things. Some
of them may fail, some of them may not have
(06:25):
environmental integrity, but let's concentrate on the majority. They try
to have the overwhelming majority of what do we do
with environmental integrity.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
The second thing on the agenda is the new quantified
goal on climate finance, and that is crucial for developing
countries like Brazil, like India, but so many other developing
countries to step up their climate actions. And without a
good outcome on a larger amount of money supporting the
(06:59):
action of developing com you're not likely to get very
ambitious targets set under the nationally determined contributions, and that
will have so many downstream impacts it will affect COP thirty,
which is going to come to Brazil. So on NCQG,
where do you think things stand right now and how
(07:21):
much of an ambitious deal could we get.
Speaker 2 (07:24):
We're not in the right direction. That I think is
quite clear, and I think that we have to understand
the Convention. Although we are all developing countries under a
certain category in the Convention. But the truth is that
you have some very low income countries that really need
(07:46):
full support. That it's even absurd to think that they
have to mitigate when they are absolutely not responsible for
emissions and they have to take care of schools, they
have to take care of health and other things, and
their action is not going to have such a big
impact because they emit very little. It's very unfair somehow.
(08:09):
And then you have the middle income developing countries like Brazil,
like Indonesia, like India, and we can do a lot
to mitigate climate change, and we are doing a lot
to mitigate climate change, and the sums that we're talking
about under the NCQG is very far from what we
know is reality. Most of the studies have been showing
(08:32):
that we're going to need trillians and we're talking about
some hundred billions that are very necessary. I'm not going
to say they are not necessary, but they are not
the full solution. And then you have to organize the
finance in a way that it can fulfill the needs
(08:53):
of the lower income countries, which I think the NCQG
can deal with that, but we need much more money
for these middle income countries to do what they need
to do, and this is not going to come in
the n seq G. I don't see the developed countries
having the same sense of urgency that they proclaim as
(09:15):
climate change. Our proclimaty is very close, it's very close,
but the this urgency is not in the finances. You
don't see the same sense of urgency. So what do
countries like in the Indonesia and Brazil, for instance, do
Brazil worked on that very hard on the G twenty
in our presidency of the G twenty now and how
(09:37):
much we have to mainstream climates into investments in general
and not in specific funds. We are huge economies, the
developing countries that are in the G twenty, and we
perfectly understand that it's not going to be grants, It's
not going to be that that is going to solve
(09:57):
our issue. The problem is that we pay too much
for foreign capital. We cannot afford to pay. It's completely
absurd that we have to pay such a high price
to have this capital. So we have to work on
many fields. So the NCQG is one of them. Is
extremely important, but we also have to be practical and
(10:19):
think that we have very few years ahead of it.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
Yes, so if I am hearing you right, you're saying NCQG,
the needs are clearly in the trillions, but there is
very little possibility or political feasibility of the trillions being approved.
But the hundreds of billions may get approved, and that
means the gap has to be filled in other ways.
And those other ways are what.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
The other ways are the mainstream of the economy. Countries
like Brazil, Indonesia or India. We are very investible countries.
I mean, there are many things to be done in
our countries and our economies are huge and our population
is huge, and so we have to lower the cost
of capital. I think will have an amazing impact. Then
(11:06):
you have also to recognize that countries like ours, including China,
we've been doing so many things inside our country without
foreign support and this is never taken into consideration. For instance,
fighting deforestation in Brazil, ninety percent of what we spend
(11:26):
is from our budget, is not international support. So this
recognition of what we're doing and the importance that we
invest in our own efforts to combat climate change is
not taken into consideration. So there is this very strange
idea of increasing the donor base, which is completely getting
(11:46):
out of the main subject. The main subject is what
are the developed countries going to provide for the developing
countries under the rules of the Paris Accord.
Speaker 1 (11:58):
Are there steps that can be taken are being taken
to lower the cost of capital coming into Brazil, India
and Indonesia.
Speaker 2 (12:04):
We're trying In the G twenty, I think that there
was quite a good progress because we put together for
the first time in the G twenty the ministers of
finance and the central bankers talking together with their ministers
of foreign Affairs and ministers of climate and it was
quite surprising because even in the developed countries they hardly
(12:26):
knew each other. So I think this is a progress.
But what really drives us is the sense of urgency,
and the sense of urgency cannot only be in ambition.
It has to be financed. It has to be action.
Speaker 1 (12:41):
Where is the next G twenty happening.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
In South Africa? So that's great, But I hear.
Speaker 1 (12:47):
That the South African Economy ministry and the finance ministry
do not get on with each other, so they might
not do what you did so successfully under the Brazil
G twenty. Is that right?
Speaker 2 (12:59):
I think that. I have to tell you that the
biggest differences between finance ministries and climate ministries that I
saw in the G twenty was in some European countries.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
So do you think given the tense negotiations, which is
the case every COP, but especially when it comes to money,
and there's sorts of money we are talking at COP
twenty nine, do you think there will be a deal
at the end.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
I do hope that because I hope that for two reasons,
First as a citizen of the planet, and second because
Brazil is going to preside the next COP, so we
need a successful COP twenty nine.
Speaker 1 (13:42):
So between now and the next COP, Donald Trump is
going to come to power, and he has said that
he will pull the US out of the Paris Agreement,
which is something he did in his first term in
twenty seventeen. Last time, around, the impact wasn't very much
cause of rules. He only left in November twenty twenty
(14:03):
and jan twenty twenty one, Joe Biden joined the US
into the Paris Agreement again. This time he can have
much greater impact because he will leave within a year,
and he could pull the US out of the UN
Climate Treaty altogether. So when you meet your US counterparts
right now who are from the Biden administration, do you
take them seriously?
Speaker 2 (14:24):
I take them very seriously because they are really serious negotiators.
But we have to try to find a new way
of dealing with the US. But we cannot think that
the US is just the government of the US. The
US is universities, scientists, states, cities, and many of them,
(14:47):
most of them believe in climate change and believe the
things have to be done. So if you just take California,
it's one of the biggest economies in the world. So
if you concentrate your efforts on the sectors of the
US that can contribute to this debate, it's already a lot.
It's obvious that it would be much better to have
(15:08):
the whole government together. Now, what I also believe is
that even the most anti climate personality in America or whatever,
will rethink about it if he sees that he can
have profits working with climate change. So see for instance, Texas.
(15:30):
Texas has become one of the states of the United
States that uses most renewables with the wind energy, with
solar energy. Why it's not an ideological decision like people
say that California is. This was exclusively because of the cost,
because it was a good business. So for those who
(15:50):
don't believe in those discussions, let's talk with the language
of business with others. Let's talk with the appropriate language
of each one.
Speaker 1 (16:02):
Say there is a deal at COP twenty nine on
the NCQG, and then the US pulls out of the
Paris Agreement. The US is the world's largest economy. It would,
I believe, have to promise the largest sum to be
given under the NCQG. If the US gets out, what
happens to the NCQG.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
I think that it would be quite logical not to
expect the US to be one of the main funders
of the NCQG.
Speaker 1 (16:28):
Even now, so going into the deal, you don't think that'll.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
Happen because even if you're negotiating with the bide and administration,
the truth is that the signs that President Trump has
already shown are very clear.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
And so if what happens at the NCQG and the
US is backtracking from its commitments shows up at COP thirty,
how are you going to make sure COP thirty is
a success. Because the NCQG will be a challenge. Not
enough countries will have submitted ambitious NDCs. They will look
(17:04):
at the US, the world's largest historical emitter, and say
they're out. Why should we contribute? And you get into
a new, bigger fight when you come to COP thirty.
So what are you doing now to avoid that?
Speaker 2 (17:18):
Well, I think we cannot avoid that. We have to
deal with that, and so we'll have to find some
intelligence answers to those intelligent questions. But that is reality.
We have to face reality like climate change if you
believe in it. So it's a big challenge, there is
no doubt about it.
Speaker 1 (17:43):
After the break, more from my conversation with Brazilian Secretary
for Climate, Energy and the Environment Andre Corea the logo.
Speaker 3 (17:50):
By the way, if you've been.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
Enjoying this episode, please take a moment to rate and
review the show on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. It helps
other listeners find the show.
Speaker 2 (18:05):
Now.
Speaker 1 (18:06):
COP thirty is currently scheduled to happen in Bellm. We
just got attendance figures today and there are expecting fifty
two thousand people coming to this COP. Now, this is
the capital of a country. It's a small country, but
it's the capital of a country, and you are able
to manage that crowd. My understanding is Bellim is a
(18:26):
really good place to go to just understand what the
Amazon is, but it's not got the capacity to host
fifty thousand people, let alone eighty thousand people which showed
up in Dubai. So what is the plan currently for
COP thirty in Brazil?
Speaker 2 (18:44):
In Bellem? The plan is to have a COP that
is proportional to what the city can offer, but also
a COP that will leave a very positive legacy to
the city. So we cannot build pharonic things just for
(19:05):
a coup. If we are going to improve the city
for the COP, it's to improve the city itself and
there will be a legacy for the population. Now, we're
going to have to do it differently, obviously very differently
than Dubai was or what Baku is operating. But you
can be sure that we will be very transparent about
(19:27):
what is possible to have in Bilin. We have a
full team of the people that are organizing the Bilim
Cup here seeing all the challenges that we will have
to face. But the symbolism of having it in the Amazon,
and the fact that Brazil is developing countries with many
(19:51):
success stories but also with huge challenges. The fact that
Brazil assumes to do it in a complex place, I
think it has a fantastic political power. We are not
trying to hide the problems we have, and as you know,
deforestation is our main source of emissions. We have a
(20:12):
very strange profile of emissions. So we are taking the
world to the place where we have our biggest source
of emission, and we're going to show to the world
how complex the Amazon region is. With the best food
in Brazil on one side, the most beautiful natural place
you can imagine, but a city that still has lots
(20:34):
of very strong social challenges. So I think that it
is quite refreshing to have a country. Obviously I'm suspicious
because I'm Brazilian, but I'm quite proud of being a
country that doesn't hide its problem. It's a country that
is showing the world its problems. And let's try to
work on that. Everybody has its problem and we are
(20:55):
showing ours very clearly to everybody.
Speaker 1 (20:58):
So how many people do you think, well, then will
be able to fit.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
I think that the organizers are working on fifty thousand people.
They are working on fifty thousand, but President Lula wants
very strong participation of civil society. So we'll have to
measure how many people. I mean, because the negotiators, as
you know, is something that doesn't move very much, is
(21:24):
around twenty thousand people. Then you have the UNFCCC staff
is one hundred. There's like eight hundred two one thousand people.
So we're dealing with the realistic numbers. But President Lula
doesn't want, you know, to let's have less people from
civil society. No, we need lots of president civilzens. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (21:45):
Now, Brazil produces more oil than the UAE does, and
President Lula has asked Petrobrass to produce even more oil.
How is that going to play in your NBC.
Speaker 2 (21:58):
We have to you with this very very challenging reality
is that last year Brazil's main expert was oil. So
from an economic point of view, this is obviously interpreted
by most of the Brazilians as something that we didn't expect,
(22:19):
and this only happened because of the incredible technological progress
of Petro Brass that is looking for oil in places
that are extremely complex and technologically difficult in places to
exploit oil. So there is a part of Brazil that
is extremely proud of Petrobras to have found oil in
(22:42):
such deep areas. And then on the other side, we
all are conscious that we have to transition away from
fossil fuels. So this is the big debate we're going
to have in Brazil next year because we have to
arrive at COP thirty lead by example as our Minister
of the environment, but in US a silver always says.
Speaker 1 (23:03):
So over here, you're hoping there will be a big
financing push that will hopefully make it possible for countries
to come with new ambitions in Bellum at COP thirty.
What other metrics are you setting for success? First is
that countries need to come up with new ambition with
(23:25):
goals set out to twenty thirty five and ideally start
to finally reduce emissions that paces needed. What are the
other priorities?
Speaker 2 (23:33):
I think that to try to make it as simple
as possible, we feel that urgency has to be everywhere
when we talk about climate change. So this is progress
in these debates that will make a huge difference. So
it's not only due an FECC. It's not only the
(23:54):
Paris Accord. It's the economy in general. It's the behavior
of people that have to take to consideration the urgency,
economic theory, ministries of finance, ministries of transportation. I mean,
it's not that's the sense of the n disis is
that the NDCs create a number that is an objective,
(24:14):
and each country is going to find its way to
reach it, and we have to do it together because,
as you are saying, if the richest country in the
world is going to backtrack maybe on some of its commitments,
why the others are going to follow. So we have
to build something really strong in which the world is
(24:35):
convinced of the urgency. How are we going to do that?
This I cannot give you the answer now.
Speaker 1 (24:43):
So in a way, now COP thirty becomes how to
defend the climate consensus even as the US leaves the
Paris a card.
Speaker 2 (24:53):
Yeah, but remember that when we say the US is
leaving us, scientists are not leaving us. Businesses, not living
and we have to think that the symbolic billionaire that
supports President Trump is eln Musk. Elon Musk is the
guy that made America fall in love with electric cars.
(25:13):
So there are many dimensions in America. We cannot oversimplify
what it is. And I mean, if the oil companies
find a way of contributing to the transition away from
fossil fuels, that would be super welcome. I mean everybody
has to come with solutions in their own way, in
(25:38):
a reasonable with reasonable costs, and with reasonable social costs.
Because we have seen in some countries that the fight
against climate change has made some of the basic services
more expensive. This is not the solution. You lose the
support of the population for this fight.
Speaker 1 (25:54):
So I'm looking forward to the new Brazil climate plan.
But giving Petro Brass is state backed, are we also
going to see a new climate plan from your state
backed oil company.
Speaker 2 (26:07):
Ah, that's a good question. Let's talk to Peter Brass together.
Thank you for coming on the show.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
Thank you very much, Thank you for listening to zero.
And now for the sound of the week. This is
(26:35):
the sound of cop Every year, almost always there is
wooden flooring newly put to turn something into a cop
venue and have thousands and thousands of people walk across it,
making this drumbeat of a noise that's the sound of
(27:03):
the footsteps inside the Baku Olympic Stadium, the drumbeat that
dictates the pace of negotiations. If you liked this episode,
please take a moment to rate or review the show
on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Also check out Bloombergreen's coverage
of COP twenty nine. It's free to read, share this
episode with a friend or with someone who is ready
(27:24):
to plan a trip to Brazil in twenty twenty five.
You can get in touch at zero pod at Bloomberg
dot net. Zero's producer is might Lee Raw. Bloomberg's head
a podcast is Sage Bauman, and head of Talk is
Brendan newnan. Our theme music is composed by Wonderly Special
thanks to Simone Iglesias, Chowan Wagner, Ethan Steinberg, Blake Maples
(27:45):
and Jessica bank I am Aksha Thrati Back soon.
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