Two-Week Warning: It's Time to Talk NFL Draft Betting!

Episode Transcript
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(00:01):
Now w RKO presents Boston's only nightlysports betting show, The Gambler, with
Adam Kaufman covering spreads, props,parlays and more. The Gambler starts now
here's Adam Kaufman. So even afterwe got screwed on a pair of bankroll
repairs last night with a couple oflate collapses, just really unfortunate stuff ruined

(00:26):
what would have been could have beenshould have been an absolutely perfect profitable night.
It was still a very profitable day. We were plus what five six
units something like that moves us asa show going into today to plus one
hundred and ninety units plus one eightynine point nine to nine to be exacts.

(00:46):
But I'm gonna round up when it'sthat close, plus one hundred and
ninety units as we make our questour trek our goal by May one of
reaching plus two hundred. But aswe know, there's a lot of variants
in this game. Sometimes you takea step back, whether a big step
back, just a unit or two. Who knows, that depends on how
your bets go. And tonight Ithink we're going to take a step back.

(01:10):
In fact, I think that isall but guaranteed at this point in
time, it doesn't matter how thingsgo the rest of the way. Dan,
Let's just tell the people what's goingon. Solid start real good.
If you check out our picks onthe action app the Gambler with Ak's the
handle, you will see a niceblood red zero to four to begin things

(01:30):
with a couple of bets still pending. It's not good. Both bankroll repairs
went down. I got the ChicagoBulls money line needed that. The Warriors
another leg, but they haven't eventipped off yet in Portland. But the
one that hurt me, and itwas right there, it was there for
the taking. The Toronto Maple Leafs, who lost six to five at home
to the New Jersey Devil's high,high scoring game obviously, hope you played

(01:53):
the over. I was on Torontoon the money line personally, and I
don't think I sprinkled the puck linebecause I just whatever. I laid the
juice for the money line, butyou know, not even as part of
the bank roller repair. I wason Toronto and it was a five to
five game late in regulation, backand forth, back and forth, a
lot of goals obviously, and theMaple Leafs they just fell short in the

(02:15):
end, so lost a unit there. Dan went double hockey New York,
New York Rangers, Islanders the Isleslate took care of business three two win
over the Canadians. Rangers not somuch. We're never really in this one.
Lost four to one to Philadelphia,so that spoiled the plus one seventeen.
So again, two bank roll repairsget squashed. We have lost four

(02:36):
in a row after hitting four outof five, so that's kind of a
bummer. Brings down the bank rollrepair success just a little bit. People's
parlays dead. We hit last nightalmost a plus five hundred. That was
great tonight, though Nick Martin,our guest from Action Network, he took
us down. Someone's got to bethe jerk. This time it was him.

(02:58):
Went with the over six and ahalf goals between Ottawa and Tampa three
two win for the Senators. Asyou mentioned, Dan, this was a
game in which as the Red Soxgive up a homer and experts fall down
camp, it's just this team.We'll get back to that in a second.
So three goals in the first elevenminutes of this game was like,

(03:22):
Wow, we're on track. Weare we are on the way, and
of course, you know, Iwas momentarily, I was distracted running around
kids sports that sort of thing,and I was thinking, in my heart
of hearts, wasn't reality, wasn'tthe brain my heart of hearts, I
was thinking, nixt leg was thatDevil's Maple Leafs game? And I'm just

(03:44):
watching the goals, goals, goals, goals, goals on the action app
as it's you know, giving methe notifications, like what, there's five
goals in the first period, We'regoing to cruise to six and a half.
And then I go and look andI see that it's actually the Sins
and Lightning who still had three atthe end of the first period, but
they slowed down for there and unfortunatelywe lost that leg. Now for the
others, those are pending. Hopefullywe hit these straits. We got a

(04:08):
ways to go your leg, DanBoston College, we need a money line
regulation win in the Frozen four Tournament. Where's that stand? Last I saw
the Eagles were up one nothing,still one nothing second period. They are
on the penalty kill right now,though, all right, so you know,
over fourteen minutes left to go.So we got figuernail biton situation there,
but we'll know by the time wesign off how that tracks. Houston.

(04:30):
I went Houston minus five and ahalf the Rockets in Utah at halftime.
Rockets do lead this game by three, so hopefully we'll get the job
done. We certainly got the CLVon this one, no matter how the
bet plays out. I was onHouston earlier in the day yesterday when it
was I'm trying to remember three anda half, four and a half something

(04:51):
like that. By the time Itook it for the show, it was
five and a half. Shortly afterthe show it had climbed to six and
a half, and earlier today,I look, I was just curious,
Oh maybe it moved back down,you know, kind of wonky like that
Mavericks line yesterday. Nope, minuseleven. I think it closed that.
So we got the CLV. Weneed the Rockets to win by half of

(05:12):
that. We just need them towin by at least six points to cash
the straight for the show. Hopefullywe can get the Rockets, get the
Eagles mitigate the damage. But it'sa losing day. We're in the red
and that always sucks. Dan.That's not fun and that doesn't even include
what is going on with the Masters, and I will provide everybody an update
on each of our plays on thatin just a second. But I am

(05:32):
curious because we have bankwell repairs comingup later on this hour as always,
to finish out the first hour.I'm still sort of assembling mine. I
know you have locked yours in.It's available on the Action app on our
page, your page personally, Danat Dan Watkins. But are you rethinking
any sort of strategy at all?Since no? Now, like it's with

(05:54):
like everything, Yeah, I meanit's it's crazy, right, like the
the uncertainty in the NBA talked aboutthe Hawks game and screwing us yesterday,
and you know, NHL, it'sjust variance and hockey variance in baseball,
you just you never it's hard toconfidently throw heavy favorites in a bankroll repairs,
oh for sure. And then youalso mix in the lack of props

(06:15):
the night before too, so youcan't real most games. You can't even
like do like an alt leg,which I do like to do when it's
available. But yeah, right now, it's so weird because there is so
much available and so many sports goingon, and it's wonderful, but betting
it is just it's it's like afog right now because you just don't know
what's going on in the NBA.The NHL is kind of in the same

(06:36):
same situation. And just as we'vetalked about, you know, it's it's
just volatile where you know, bigfavorites can go down no problem, and
the same thing in baseball too,And and yeah, obviously I don't do
too many I don't think I've donegolf ever in a bankroll repair, I'm
not gonna start that now. HopefullyBrian's gotten something for us, because I
know he's he's he's been cooking prettywell. Got you good? Good?

(06:59):
We need that. But yeah,it's just it's it's just so I don't
feel comfortable with many things right now. On the board. I felt pretty
good about my BC pick tonight,but yeah, the hockey bankroll repair did
not go well in the NHL.Well, let's talk a little bit about
the masters. Now. Run downwhat we're gonna do tonight on the show.
It's gonna be a really fun one. I'm excited about tonight. It's
a good way to close out ourthe word show work week. It's a

(07:20):
very weird show. It's very thisis this is a very april Ish sort
of show. I mean I saythat having never experienced, you know,
April shows. This and I'm tellingthis feels like what an April show would
be. So we gave out fiveMasters futures yesterday and it's early That's that's

(07:41):
what the very early kept saying.It's early round ones, not even technically
complete yet. But here's where westand with our plays. So Hideki Matsuyama.
It doesn't matter like who has what, I'll just read the five plays.
Hideki Matsuyama. Top ten. Heis currently failing us. He is
he seventy five at plus four.But I will mention this is to the

(08:05):
it's early camp. Like if youhave him as I do, not as
an official show play, you know, with an outright to win the tournament,
you're not feeling so hot, butt ten. Well, at the
moment, the top nine cuts offat two under, so he's only six
shots off of that, so hotday tomorrow needs it make the cut.

(08:26):
It's it's very realistic, it's it'sabsolutely in play. Some of the bets
that I feel a bit better about, however, Shane Lowry top twenty T
thirty two currently, but he iseven through sixteen and round one and T.
Seventeen is just one under, sohe is one shot at the moment
off of being in the top twenty. Will's Alataurus top ten monster today huge.

(08:50):
He is right now T nine aftera two under seventy in the opening
round. He is in the clubhouse, so he's doing his job, and
that includes back to back bogies onseventeen and eighteen, so he was actually
I think tied for second at onepoint earlier today, or would have been
fourth, I think. Yeah,So four hundreds is tied for fourth,
so he just kind of slipped upthere at the end, but he had
an eagle today. Salatorus talked abouthim last night, a big time major

(09:13):
player, has got great success atthe Masters and two career starts, and
he's well on his way to hopefullya nice third top ten in a row.
And of course looks like Happy Gilmore'scaddy right Xander Schaffle top ten.
Okay, so he is T.Thirty two, that is even, but
he's only two shots out of aT. Nine tie, so again he's

(09:35):
right there in the mix, eventhough T ten T thirty two. It
doesn't look so good on paper,but when you dive into the numbers,
he's right there. Yeah, andhe's settled down two yeah, and s
he pigala Top twenty again a guywho's pretty much doing his job because he
is T forty two, so Iknow doesn't sound close, but he is
plus one through eleven in round one, so he's barely halfway through his opening

(09:58):
round for today, got called andon top of that again top twenty right
now T seventeen is one under,so he's two shots off of that,
so you know, we'll see.But I would say collectively, guys,
we're in good shape. We're okayright now. And is Phil? Was
that an official show play too?It's an official show play. Yeah.
So how how's Phil doing among theold He's one up on Mike Weir?

(10:20):
Yeah, Mike Weir had like ahe had a chip in eagle and had
a barely missing eagle putt, sohe's got to relax on the eagles.
Yeah, he's got Chill. Nicholsonshot one over today. He put it.
He was one under from most ofthe day, had a couple of
bogies at the end, so helooks Okay, I'm pretty feel pretty good
about him making the cut, sohoping, hoping there's gonna be a lot

(10:43):
of wind tomorrow, so I'm hopingthe wind knocks down. Mike Weird doesn't
hit the ball nearly. It's justhard. The old guy just falls over
exactly. Yeah, and then theother three I think aren't even close.
So right, good, Mike Weiris just he's our only problem. I
knew that he was in front.I didn't know by how much, but
I knew he was in front justbecause I looked at the bet earlier and

(11:03):
my cash out option, not thatI was going to cash out, but
my cash out option was still profitableobviously, so I was like, all
right, he's leading. I justdon't know, you know, against whom
and by how much? But allright. So that is our Master's update
in terms of where our official showplays stand. But we are going to
potentially give out more Masters plays.I think Brian has already tipped his hand

(11:26):
with respect to the bank roll repair, so that is coming up at the
end of the hour. The RedSox are still allowing runs in the top
of the tenth inning that I don'teven recognize this team from the seven and
three club that was out West.I guess, don't come home, don't
come back to Fenway. We're goingto do live betting opportunities for the Masters
with Brady Cannon, our buddy fromSports Grid. He's going to come on
top of the next hour for asegment. We are also going to do

(11:50):
some NBA again regular season winding down. The Celtics completely sold despite having many
of their regulars in against the Knickstonight. They just do not care.
I mean, I don't want tosay mailed it in because they did outscore
the Knicks by twenty in the fourthquarter to lose by a more respectable nine,
but that just tells you how uglyit was going into the final frame.
It just not a good game.The only thing that bothers me about

(12:13):
this not the outcome. I didn'tbet on it. I don't care.
These games don't mean anything. They'relocked into the top seed in the NBA.
You just want to see a littlemore urgency and enthusiasm and effort.
You know, you don't want tohave bad habits going into the playoffs.
So I don't love that. Butyeah, that's a whole other thing.
We will talk a little bit ofbasketball, and again how to bet the

(12:35):
remainder of the regular season. HereAton Shander is going to join us in
the next hour. Aton, Iwas looking it up, is tied with
this appearance, tied with Jeff Ulrichfor the most appearances on the show.
I believe this is going to benumber seventeen. Jez, Yeah, it's
pretty good this hour though, beforethe bank Roller repairs, we're gonna spend
the next couple segments with a memberof the sports gambling podcast network. Ryan

(13:00):
Kramer is going to join us forthe first time for yes NFL Draft betting
talk, because, as Dan noted, is it ever really too early?
Draft is two weeks away, folks. I know lines are pretty efficient at
this point. There's not a lotof value out there, but are still
ways to make money. You canbet on that, So we're gonna get
into it. Another home run allowedby the Red Sox. Kramer is coming

(13:22):
up next year. It is likea zillion to three. Baltimore is leading
this game. We'll be back.It's the Gambler with Adam Kauffman. Sick
and tired of bold sports talk andwant to get right into the action.
The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Hasyou covered call us now at six one
seven two six six six eight sixeight. That's six one seven two six

(13:43):
six six eight six eight. TheGambler with Adam Kaufman will be right back
after this on w RKO. Earlyin the third quarter, these stupid Rockets
are now trailing Utah. Just Imean, what are we doing eleven point
five? It's just need the minusfive and a half and you're down at
the moment with the Jazz playing effectivelytheir G League team. By the way,

(14:05):
shout out Maine Celtics, who well, I Unfortunately it's it's not the
celebratory shout out. I believe theylost tonight. They were well on their
way to losing any way to OklahomaCity the Blue. It is game two.
You're probably on top of this,Dan doing the morning updates over Onbusy
Oh. Game two of the UG League Championship and it's a best of

(14:28):
three. So coming back this weekendin Maine for potentially banner number one for
the Maine Celtics. Of course,you know the big club chasing Banner eighteen
this uh spring and summer. Bannerone could be headed to Portland in just
a couple of days. Yeah,look, don't don't don't scoff, don't
scoff, don't anything. We're notin the same room, so you can't

(14:50):
properly you know, feel my excitement. That must be what it is,
you know what, I know thatyou are excited though about the NFL Draft.
It is right around the corner Patriotsas of now picking at number three.
Let's see if they hold the pick. There's a lot more trade down
talk than there is trade up,that's for sure. Maybe they stand pat

(15:13):
Maybe they go with a quarterback.Could it be Drake may Dan's guy?
Could it be Jade and Daniels?Could it be Heaven Forbid jj McCarthy.
We're going to explore some of thesethings as it relates strictly to the Pats,
but also go around the league alittle bit and trying to cipher the
best way to make money betting theNFL Draft, and doing so with the
first time guest of the program,although we have his buddies on all the

(15:37):
time. From the sports gambling podcastnetwork, Ryan Kramer, joins us.
You can get him on Twitter atKramer Centric. Ryan. How's it going,
man? Going good? I hearyou talking about Maine as someone who
grew up on the East Coast inthe nineties. I mean, I had
that obligatory hipster s Portland Sea Dogshirt so huge fan love that love that

(16:00):
you probably had vans on a skateboard. Oh you know, and my mom
would let me go out. Youknow. So we have done next to
no NFL Draft talk on this showso far. So this is you know,
a great opportunity for you to beon with us, to really not
just educate the public, but usin many ways quite frankly, because you

(16:23):
know, I think this is kindof our first foray into betting the draft
and figuring out the best way todo It's something I mentioned earlier is you
know, I know that there wereopportunities earlier on weeks, maybe months ago,
to where you could really get valuethat just doesn't exist anymore. The
lines much more efficient at this pointin time. That being said, there
are ways to get creative and sortof find your avenues into making money.

(16:47):
But treating these segments here that you'rewith us as some we'll get deeper,
but something of a primer. Youknow what, what just general advice would
you offer people who are looking toget into betting the draft for the first
time just because the number is moving. Don't assume the sportsbook knows something.
Don't assume it's based on any sortof real information. A great example of

(17:12):
this from earlier in draft season,Brian Kelly gets interviewed during a pro day,
talks about Jaden Daniels to the Commanders, talks about Jadeen Daniels tying it
to the team of Washington. Thisshifts the odds completely whether or not it
turns out to be true or notif you actually zoom out watch the full
interview. He was specifically asked aboutJayden Daniels fit with the Commanders, and

(17:34):
so his answer becomes a lot lessinteresting when you actually zoom out to the
whole information. So with so muchof this aggregator the culture that we live
in, where you're generally getting likethe telephone approach to news, I would
say, like he like, whenstuff moves, figure out why it moves
and see if that's accurate, becauselast year I can tell you it was

(17:56):
Bryce Young, and then it wasCJ. Stroud, and then it was
Bryce Young again, and then itwas c J. Stroud again. And
so if you're a day trader.If you're someone looking to get in,
you haven't missed the moment just becauseit feels like the price has changed.
Because the next bit of information froma reputable source or even a non reputable
source, as long as it getspicked up by the aggregator, it can
affect the number, and to yourpoint, on you know earlier numbers being

(18:19):
better, that's kind of the macroadvice. But also you know so much
less then, so you really dohave to have that balance of do I
want to fire early get the goodvalue, or do I want to wait
and have more information. I thinkgenerally kind of the same you would approach
an MVP market or any other kindof long form future long shots, you
might want to fire on early becausethere's more likely that that value goes down.

(18:42):
Favorites, maybe you sit around andwait. Now Caleb Williams a good
example of maybe a favorite you wantedto fire on early, but you don't
want to lay minus five hundred andwait around and hope that he's the guy.
And so yeah, I think justin general, fire on those long
shots early, wait for the newsand try to react. But I would
really encourage just when the news comesout, actually verified, actually validate it

(19:06):
and see if this is this isreal information or not. Because this has
been this draft specifically, everyone's tryingto lie at the top, and so
you really have to kind of fishbetween the lines and understand what's the truth
bigger picture. There are so manydifferent options across books. Is there one
book that you think is the bestin terms of offering you just the different

(19:30):
markets that you would like to getin when it comes to betting the draft,
because obviously it's not as simple asyou know who's the number one overall
pick as you alluded to. Imean you could bet specifically on who's going
seventh, who's going tenth, youknow who's the first wide receiver drafted,
which team is going to take RockPowers. I mean, there's there's no
lack of opportunity. Is there onebook that you prefer? I think you

(19:55):
know right right now. Honestly,you look at DraftKings, they're probably the
best example as the ones that aremost willing to open will they will open
the markets early and most likely becausethey're taking smaller bets, but their markets
tend to be opened a little earlier. But then the odds tend to turn
sour quickly and doing a lot ofline comparison shopping, like you're saying,

(20:17):
using the many tools that are outthere, like FanDuel, for example,
I'm finding on the regular is offeringme still access to some of those long
shot example being Cowboys. What ifthere's a scenario where the Cowboys trade out
of the first round, they've beenreally quiet and free agency and they end
up just taking a running back withtheir second round pick. Well that on
DraftKings Cowboys to take a running backwith their first pick is only twenty five

(20:41):
to one. You look on Fandelit's one hundred and ten to one.
That's a massive price difference. Andreally for that type of scenario, it
is more of a long shot play. And so at one hundred and ten
to one, that becomes much moreinteresting. You can drop down one of
your little pizza bets and get anice return. And so using that as
the example, that would be youknow, in general, I would say
Fandal has been really good this season. Always big fan of the stuff that

(21:03):
the Circa has, but they're muchmore delayed in getting their stuff out,
and so yeah, I think youknow, when you're talking about the more
fun, longer payout and stuff.I think right now, FanDuel is my
favorite. So Ryan got a semanticsquestion for you, just because the phrasing
can get a little confusing here withsome of these props and stuff. And
I'm looking at the draft position forindividual players and I'll just take the top

(21:26):
one on DraftKings here it's Bonnicks overthirty two and a half. So that
means if you take the over here, you're betting on Bonnicks to be drafted
thirty third or later. Is thatcorrect? It's correct? So yeah,
it's a little counterintuitive you It's likeyou're you're over as bad when it comes
to draft positions, right, Sothe players getting drafted later on then correct,

(21:49):
exactly. Great, And Bonnicks isactually a great example to bring up
because he's someone that's beent all overthe place. Yep. At first it
was clear he was going to bea late round or a second round.
A lot of talk about the topteams that maybe need a quarterback, maybe
they take the receiver first, theywait, they take a bon Nix.
Then completely shifts when a number ofthe scouting sources come out and kind of

(22:11):
talk about Sean's Peyton loves the bighands, and Boonick has a big hand
and he has some of that shortarea accuracy. And now nextually you know,
Bonis is getting mocked to the Broncosat number twelve. I think the
reality is somewhere in between where youknow, maybe the Broncos are looking to
get him, but I doubt they'relooking with the number twelve pick. And

(22:33):
you know, when you talk aboutdraft position props, these are the ones
that have the most truth to them. These are the latest props that they're
going to open. They're much morelikely to open, you know, Bonicks
to be drafted by Team X marketsthan they are the actual draft position because
this is what gives them the mostkind of live potential liability in terms of
just pure being wrong. And youknow, having to move a draft position

(22:56):
six, seven, eight, tenspots can it leave you open for some
pretty disastrous middles. And we've seenit before. And so when they start
opening the draft position props, thattells me there is a little bit more
information and a little bit more kindof industry consensus on where the player might
go. So Bonex being a thirtytwo and a half minus one fifty five

(23:18):
juice to the over tells me we'restarting to see the consensus really lean into
the idea that Bonick probably more likelyto be a second round pick than a
first round pick. I think Bonnicksis so fascinating here though, when it
comes to betting on them, becausethen you kind of just cross reference these
picks or these props, and it'sBonicks to be selected by which team.
It's Denver leading the way by farat minus one seventy five, And then

(23:41):
you go to another tab and youlook at Denver's first position drafted and it's
quarterback at minus one fifteen. SoI feel like, if you think BOE's
going to go to Denver, right, yeah, take them under thirty two
and a half there and make someplus money. It's not only that what
you're discovering. Because they want tooffer so many products, they've created a

(24:03):
Rubik's cube where they can't manage tokeep maintaining the relationships between all these products,
and so there's gonna be available opportunitythere. But then the same bet
over on FanDuel, For example,Bonnicks to be taken by the Broncos,
there is minus one thirty and nowyou throw out the need for it to
be a first round or a secondround or the first pick, and he

(24:25):
just needs to go there. Soit is certainly the time of year where
if you have an opinion, it'salmost like you got to sit down,
work out your mock draft or workout like your scenarios, and then then
go shopping. Understand the scenarios youlike. Then go shopping because, like
you just found out, with verylittle effort, you're gonna find there's three

(24:45):
different variations of the same bet,So make sure you get the best price.
Yeah, the correlation or lack thereof, it's it is fascinating, There's
no doubt about it. We're gonnakeep talking about some of these guys.
We'll mixing the Patriots as well.We'll find out what if any best bets
At this point in time, Ryanhas where he's already invested or where he
would invest with the draft a coupleof weeks out. So hang with us

(25:07):
again, Ryan Kramer around with usfrom the Sports Gambling Podcast Network. We
will return sick and tired of boldsports talk and want to get right into
the action. The Gambler with AdamKaufman. Has you covered? Call us
now at six one, seven,two, six, six, six eight
six eight. That's six one seventwo six six six eight six eight.

(25:29):
The Gambler with Adam Kaufman will beright back after this. On w RKO,
We've got Ryan Kramer here with usfrom the Sports Gambling Podcast Network talking
about the NFL Draft just a coupleof weeks away. We will find out
what the Patriots are doing about theirquarterback situation. Wouldn't it be funny?
Wouldn't it be funny if they tradedown just take a lineman, then a

(25:51):
wide receiver, then a running back, and you know, winds up being
a quarterback in like round four afterall of this, may versus Daniels McCarry
whomever. I mean, you mayremember, and I say funny sarcastically,
because there would be nothing funny aboutit at all, But you may remember
Dan. I mean, this waswhat maybe a month and change left in
the college football season. I startedhaving my fantasy of the Patriots getting a

(26:18):
high pick, which obviously they got, and taking Marvin Harrison Junior at number
three and then trade up into theback of the first round or early second
round and go with the bow Nicksor someone like that anyway who could still
be there. I'm still not opposedto that. It just very clearly doesn't
seem like something that is going tohappen. So Ryan's let's talk a little

(26:40):
bit about the pats here, andit's not specifically the Patriots, because it
very much does matter what the commandersdo in front of them if in fact
there isn't movement. So I guessthat's as good a place to start.
One, do you expect there tobe trades inside the top three? And
second to that, after the inevitablecame Williams number one, what happens between

(27:03):
Daniels may McCarthy, Because there's alot of agents and media people carrying water
right now, my co host onthe Sports Scaling podcast, Sean Green,
is making fun of me. Butthe fact that they're still letting you bet
Caleb Williams that minus ten thousand makesme think they're not certain. But yeah,
you guys are right, they're alreadytalking about installing the offense. But

(27:23):
so back to the conversation with BrianKelly and Jane Daniels to Washington, it
is starting to seem a little bitmore clear that this is the guy that
they're zooming in on. You know, WoT I wouldn't say run to the
window and bet your life on jaydeand Daniels there. But it does set
up an interesting scenario for the Patriots. Now there's the comedy angle here,

(27:47):
which is, you know, theygo out and they draft the guy who
is kind of similar to mac Jones, and seemingly JJ McCarthy is making every
fan base not want him to bethe guy because he's kind of not there's
nothing super sexy about him. Ithink the Patriots have said a lot of
things about them being happy with JacobyBrissett as the quarterback this year. I

(28:11):
think people are starting to look aheadto the draft class next year and realize
there are a couple guys in thedraft class. So one of them may
be related to Dion Sanders. Youknow another Quinn Ewers used to don a
beautiful mullet. So I wonder Ithink the Patriots, of all the top
teams, I think, could bethe ones to throw a complete curve volunteer

(28:32):
point. I'm Marvin Harrison, wouldn'tit. I mean, Robert Graft does
seem to be the kind of guythat holds a grudge from time to time.
I'm sure he would love to seeMarvin Harrison Senior on the sideline wearing
some Patriots gear, rooting for hiskids. And I gotta be honest,
I'm a Giants fan kind of ina similar situation as the Patriots. If

(28:53):
you're not going to get the guythat you love, and I don't think
any fan base is in love withJJ McCarry, then it almost is,
you know, way more interesting togo get that generational receiver. And so
you know, from a betting perspective, Marvin Harrison, they go number three
overall is plus nineteen hundred. Ithink the more interesting scenario is that the

(29:15):
Patriots trade down and the trade partneris the New York Giants, who from
what I understand, are in lovewith Drake met And so that would potentially
still allow the Patriots, you know, do their normal thing trade down,
piss off their fan base, butthis time instead of taken a guard from
Division two wherever Chattanooga, they actuallyget still a wide receiver in the hall,

(29:37):
because dropping the six is still goingto allow you to get the guy
you want. Who knows, maybeit's the second trade down when the Vikings
want to come up from McCarthy,but I will say it does seem like
of all the teams that are quoteunquote locks to be going after a quarterback,
I think the Patriots could be actuallythe the team to not take the
early one. And to your point, maybe they do go after a Penix,

(29:59):
a Spencer Rattler in the second round. And so yeah, if I
was this is one of those marketswhere I would actually look specifically, can
you find a trade down a scenario? And if not, then what I'm
maybe trying to do is figure out, Okay, Drake May is minus one
ten to go three overall, arethere other scenarios besides the Giants trading up.

(30:21):
Well, the Patriots could just likehim the most because he's clearly,
in my eyes, a better quarterbackprospect than JJ McCarthy. So I think
you're kind of saved. You're protectedin a couple different ways. You can
also find markets on the Patriots todraft a quarterback versus a receiver, and
that's actually the a market that getsinteresting because if you do think they're gonna
go after the quarterback, you cantake it right there at plus one ten.

(30:45):
If you think they're gonna take thereceiver, you take Marvin Harrison or
Mo Leak neighbors directly, because MarvinHarrison to go to the Patriots is thirty
to one, leak neighbors to goto the Patriots' seventy five to one.
You can get some real long pricesthere, So again you do shopping.
Now, you put the gun tomy head and I'll close out my rambling
diatribe of what the Patriots might do. I do think it's going to be

(31:07):
the quarterback because you can't you can'trely on drafting high every year. And
so unfortunately for the Patriots fans,I do think they might like JJ McCarthy,
and so I would still try tofind that price. And I think
right now you can still get JJMcCarthy at three to one. That just
that just makes me so sad andso sick. Ryan, you come on
here and just just disappoint us.To do you remember a pro Can you

(31:33):
remember a quarterback prospect that is alot to go in the top ten of
the NFL draft that every fan basewould be disappointed if they ended up with
him. Josh Allen, Oh,well yeah, that worked out pretty well
though it did. But like I'lllet Dan go. But like to that
point, I mean, the onlyone who's talking up JJ McCarthy, and
then everyone is just following suit isHarbaugh? Yeah he started this right,

(31:59):
Like put your money where your mouthis, man, trade justin Herbert and
go ahead and draft JJ McCarthy.Prove it. That's what I think at
this pot, Like, if youwant us to buy this, prove it,
because nobody, whoever, God forbid, the Patriots draft JJ McCarthy.
I'm not kidding. I think Imight find a new team to root for.
I just I don't see it either, But yeah, go ahead,

(32:19):
Ryan, Oh, I was gonnasay the Herbert trade. You know,
we've debated this on the Sports Gamblingpodcast. Harbaugh is totally the kind of
guy that would be like, yeah, let's reset the clock, let's go
get my guys, let's go winwith the guys we have. And so
that Herbert trade does become interesting,especially if Harbaugh is in the camp of
like, hey, this guy,he's good, but he's not like special

(32:40):
good. And maybe Harbaugh does believeit could be McCarthy, or maybe Harbaugh
realizes the only way he turns thisroster out over completely is you know,
trading Herbert, getting maybe two orthree first round picks and still being you
know, rebuild in motion, especiallywhen you're coming out of college with the
national championship team, that where youmight be able to get your running back

(33:01):
in a third round, you getyour quarterback in the first round. Pick
up one of those stud receivers withthe extra pick. I certainly think the
Herbert the idea that Herbert gets tradedis like it seems far fetched and unreal,
unreal. But the way Harbaugh rollsis he does whatever he wants to
do. And I think for thoseof us who have teams who are drafting

(33:22):
quarterbacks, we are all sitting heredefinitely afraid that it's going to be JJ
McCarthy. So sticking on this topic, Ryan, I guess the one angle
we haven't hit yet is what happensat number four? Are we certain that
Arizona's going to take Marvin Harrison orcould someone offer them the bag and take
JJ McCarthy there, Because if McCarthy'sstill sitting there at fourth overall and you

(33:43):
think he's going to go fourth,you can bet that at plus four hundred
on Fandel right now compared to plusone seventy five on DraftKings, I think
I think the dark horse angle forpick four is that there isn't this market
for McCarthy. It has been allfabricated by Harbaugh. And you know,

(34:04):
they take the receiver. That's theconventional wisdom. But what if the Cardinals
don't see that as the obvious choiceand they want to get another tackle and
they want to reinforce this offensive line. I think, certainly, you know,
in a scenario where there aren't thosetrades and Arizona is stuck there,
I don't think it's a lock theytake Marvin Harrison. Like the odds suggests
that minus two hundred, I thinksomeone like and I wouldn't even go as

(34:27):
far to say I think Malik Neighborsor Roma Dunsay are potentially the guys.
I've heard scouts who I really trusttalk about Roma Dunsay and say there's not
a lot of difference between him andMarvin Harrison, and so it could just
be a team preference thing. ButI really think the conversation about Wonga or
Alt is where it gets like nextWorld interesting because you can get seventy five,

(34:50):
one hundred and twenty to one onthese guys going forth, and I
think everyone agrees Arizona is interested inpotentially an offensive line, and I think
everyone agrees that they seem invested inKyler Murray and so you know, you
kind of what better way to makesure you're investing in that quarterback? And
the drop kind of an anvil inthe draft, reset everything and take a
tackle here early. I know,just in general, you can get Joe

(35:14):
All to be the first non quarterbacktaken I think at twenty to one or
something like that as well. Soa lot of different ways you can play
it there. But I don't thinkit's locked in stone that the Cardinals are
obviously going to take a receiver.Ryan Kramer from the Sports Gambling Podcast Network.
You can get him on Twitter atKramer Centric. Ryan, this is
a lot of fun man, incrediblyinformational obviously, and we'll have to,

(35:37):
you know, try and wedging sometime. Have you back here before the
draft, continue handicapping this thing,figure out what all these teams are gonna
do. Best time of year tospeculate in the NFL. Oh, it
is silly season, There's no doubtabout it. All right, Thanks again
to Ryan Kramer. We love theguys over at the Sports Gambling podcast Network.
Sean Green, he mentioned him,Colby Dant obviously one of the ogs

(35:59):
inter of this show from that network, and uh yeah, there's this is
gonna be fun. Yeah, wecould do two full hours and beyond on
on the NFL Draft, and soit just tells us we're gonna have to
do more, obviously, but fornow we're gonna step aside. When we
come back bank for repairs for tomorrow, it's Thursday, that means three bank

(37:28):
row repairs. Me, Dan,you're used to us. But Brian jumps
in at the end of the weekend. And I see this all the time,
but Brian, you can jump inas often as you want. Doesn't
just have to be the Thursdays.You're good at this, you know what
you're doing. But he is hoppingin with a bank roll repair for the
weekend as well. So boy,we're gonna stop the four game slide.
Boys, let's get into it.What do you have, Brian, you
go first, too. Are gettinga little weird on this one, but

(37:50):
we got two sports starting with golf. I loved what I saw him at
Max Home with today and he's Ilike the guy who's playing earlier tomorrow that
less windy. It gets way windyin the afternoon, So was playing in
the morning after he finishes his round, So I like him to be in
the top ten at the end ofround two and combine that with Joel and
B twenty five points against the Magictomorrow in a big game as they're trying
to get out of the plane.He's basically since he's come back, he's

(38:14):
looked normal, back to his MVPself. So that's plus one oh seven
on DraftKings. Beautiful, Dan,all right, this one's getting really weird
too, but this is what wehave for options tonight. So starting off
in the NHL, we're just we'regonna take the Oilers on the money line,
and then we're gonna go to baseball. We're gonna do a couple alt
K props and we're gonna go MichaelKing. He's the Padres starter tomorrow against

(38:35):
the Dodgers, and we're gonna havehim to get at least four strikeouts.
And then we're gonna go Tark schoolBall, the Tigers pitcher. We're gonna
have him to get at least sixk's tomorrow. So you put those three
legs together, plus one oh twoon FanDuel. So I'm debating whether to
I have a two legger and athird leg that I do like, I'm

(38:57):
just debating whether or not I needthe third leg to, you know,
take us from ballpark minus one ohsix one oh five up to like plus
one point thirty, like really jumpedthe thing and get greedy and chase the
plus money. I don't know thatI need to do it. Maybe with
the way things are going with theBrs these last couple of days, I'll
play it a little more conservative.So I'll leave it to you, the

(39:19):
listener, to decide what you wantto do. But the official show play
will be a two legger. AndI'm getting a little weird too. Boys,
here's what I'm gonna do the AtlantaBraves on the money line. They
are in Miami, and I realizedthey are playing a different team. But
they should be absolutely embarrassed by whathappened today, sixteen to four loss at

(39:42):
home to the New York Mets.I'm looking for a bounce back out of
one of Baseball's best teams the otherleg. I say I'm getting weird because
I'm going to atp ponic money CarlowBoys, I'm going with Novak Djokovic to
win on the money line. We'renot getting cute with it. You're not
looking for, you know, astraight sets win or win by a certain
number of games or anything like that, just a money line win in his

(40:06):
matchup. So Joker and the Braves, that is. I believe minus one
zero six on DraftKings. I willconfirm it. I'll loaded into the app
give you the best number there thethird leg if you choose to play it.
I might, but it's not theofficial show. Play. Is the
New York Knicks on the money line? I know they played tonight, they
played really well. Obviously they beatthe Celtics, but I like the Knicks

(40:29):
a good spot against the Nets.So again, that is Djokovic as well
as the Atlanta Braves. All right, those are your three bank RLL repairs
for tomorrow. We'll be back Bradycanon Master's talk on the way. Sick
and tired of bold sports talk andwant to get right into the action.
The Gambler with Adam Kauffman has youcovered call us now at six one seven

(40:52):
two six six six eight six eight. That's six one seven two six six
six eight six eight. The Gamblerwith Adam Kaufman will be right back after
this on w RKO. It's hournumber two of The Gambler with Adam Kauffman
here on w RKO. If youmiss any of the show, especially a
show like tonight, a lot ofrelevant, relevant, easy for me to

(41:15):
say, relevant information to go backand check out, especially in that first
hour when we were really fixated onthe NFL Draft. Great stuff out of
Ryan Kramer from the Sports Gambling podcastNetwork. Go back. I encourage to
check that out. With the drafta couple weeks away. Get your podcasts
wherever you get your podcasts, weare there The Gambler with Adam Kauffman.

(41:37):
Search that full name. You'll findus rate review. Most importantly, do
subscribe. So weird show between NFLDraft talk masters, talk regular season,
late NBA, and even a littlebit of tennis there in the bank roll
repairs. There's just we're touching itall here in this two hour program.

(41:58):
A guy that I spend a couplehours with on Saturday nights over on Sports
Grid, Brady Cannon, joins ushere. You can get him on Twitter
at Las Vegas Golfer. He isall over the place across the Sports Grid
Network. You know, I'm teenshows every single day. He also contributes
to the PGA tour. Every timeI look at his bio, he is

(42:19):
adding something new. He's doing alot. Brady, Welcome back to the
show man. How are you.I'm good. Yeah, I counted it
up. But you know, Mastersweek is always crazy for me. And
on Tuesday and Wednesday I wrote twoarticles and appeared on sixteen different shows.
That's crazy. Plus you know,never mind like podcasts on the side.

(42:42):
I mean, you are everywhere.People should check him out on Twitter.
Now, let's talk a little bitabout what's going on here. Obviously I'd
like to say one round in,but we're not quite there. There are
plenty of guys that are still goingwith the day cut short, first delayed
by weather and then you know,just darkness there in Georgia at the end
of the day. But by toShambo, people were saying, going into
the tournament, what about the liveguys? How do we handicap the live

(43:05):
guys? You know, it's justboring to bet the favorite. And Scottie
Scheffler, Well, Scheffler right nowis one stroke off the lead. He's
six under complete sixty six in theclubhouse. But Bryson de Shambo is your
leader. At the end of roundone at least his things stand barring,
you know, hajh guard. I'mnot saying that, right, I couldn't
possibly hoeguard. He's hoyguard, thankyou. He's two strokes back through fifteen,

(43:29):
so he could, you know,get himself into the lead or a
type of the lead. Whatever itwinds up being early tomorrow, we'll see.
But Bryson shocking many with that sevenunder opening round. What do you
think of what we're seeing at thetop right now? Well, it was
remarkable what Bryson did because today,I mean, obviously Augusta Nationals never too
easy, but it was especially difficulttoday in the wind. Bryson did catch

(43:52):
a little bit of a break,you know, teeing off relatively earlier in
the day, but by the timehe got to the back nine, it
was blowing pretty good and that's wherehe really went nuts. He made a
bunch of birdies on the back side. Now, the thing is, you
know, it's a couple different waysyou can look at this. Bryson's been
playing very well on the live touras of late. However, he's never

(44:14):
played very well at Augusta Nastional forthe Masters. His best finish was his
very first trip here way back whenwhen he finished twenty first, and also
in twenty nineteen, the year Tigerwon it, Deshamba was also your first
round leader, like he's expected tobe here when they finish up the first
round on Friday that year that Tigerwon it, when Bryson was also the

(44:37):
first round leader, he ended upfinishing twenty ninth, and the last two
years in a row here he's missedthe cut. So I wouldn't get too
excited about him just yet. Eventhough his form has been very good on
the live circuit, I'm kind ofdoubting that this will be sustainable, especially
with a Friday coming up that hasmore brutal wins to follow. Scheffler,

(44:59):
I think was maybe the more impressiveof the two. I mean, we
really are watching Tiger Woods develop here. Tiger Part two, I think,
with you know, less charisma andfanfare, but he's basically doing the same
thing. And when he starts rackingup major championships, he's going to become
even more of that conversation. Butthe guy is just unflappable. He caught

(45:21):
a huge break on the thirteenth holltoday. It looked like he put it
into Ray's Creek, and they fastforward to you know, show a couple
of other guys taking shots, andthey go back to Scottie and next thing,
I know, his balls on theside of the hill. It must
have like ricocheted off a rock.I don't know how it got there,
but he's, you know, standingkind of sideways on the side of the
hill. He chips up onto thegreen and he taps it in for Birdie.

(45:43):
So that was like really a threeshot swing possibly there for Scheffler,
that was huge. Danny Willett,you know, a Master's champ in twenty
sixteen, he just decided to playon Sunday coming off of soulder surgery.
So I really don't expect that tonecessarily max Homa off to a great start.
He's never done well here before.The first time he ever shot under

(46:06):
par for the front nine in hisMaster's career. Ryan Fox coming in had
missed five of his missed five cutsin his last eight starts, so that
was a bit of an anomaly there. Tyro Hatton has never played that well
here before, but he's off toa great start, so I mean,
a couple of the guys Scheffler obviouslydoes not surprise me near the top,

(46:30):
and then you go down into theguys that are two under and tied for
ninth, Patrick Reed, a formerwinner in twenty eighteen, Willie's Ala Torus
a runner up on debut, followedby a sixth place finish, and then
Joaquin Neeman, who's had progressively betterfinishes here in his first four trips to
Augusta. Those three don't surprise meat all. The other are a little

(46:52):
bit of a mixed bag. So, Brady, when we're trying to figure
out how to live bet this thinggoing into round two, wrapping up round
one, really with a few ofthe guys, who are you looking at?
Who are your targets here? Ican tell you I've made at least
one live bet so far today,and that was Benyon to finish top ten.
He started off pretty hot, kindof cool down the stretch there,
but I'm hoping that he can atleast hang around that top ten. Well,

(47:14):
I like Dan that you did itfor top ten. I don't expect
him to win, but yeah,he's got a very good chance to finish
top ten, and you know,he's a very good player, having a
good year, and started off theyear with a great finish at Kapolua,
which is a correlated course, soif you can do well there, it
may translate into doing well here.I made an in play bet on Ludwig

(47:35):
Oberg. He still has two parfives left, and this guy is an
immense talent. He's currently ranked ninthin the world and has only been around
for you know, seemingly less thana year on the PGA Tour, and
we know debutantes never win. Butif maybe he's ready to break that trend.
I got him at twenty two toone. I've seen as low as
eighteen, and I've seen as highas twenty four, but I think he's

(47:59):
pretty live. The guys are goingto restart tomorrow at seven fifty Eastern time,
and it'll probably take you know,when you look at everybody that has
holes left to play, it's anaverage of about five holes left. Aburg's
got or Oberg's got seven left togo, so probably about two hours before
everybody is completely finished with round one. But with two par fives left to

(48:23):
go, you know, he couldget to four under. Possibly he'll avoid
some of the wind. The windis supposed to kick up to about fifteen
miles an hour beginning at about tenam, and then just get progressively,
you know, more gusty as theday goes along, and even into the
neighborhood of you know, possibly thirtymiles an hour, which we saw really

(48:45):
late in the round on Thursday withJason Day and Tiger Woods really fighting some
big gusts. So tomorrow is goingto be very, very difficult. Those
guys that are restarting first thing inthe morning may get about an hour hour
and a half of some reprieve andbe able to put a cup of scores
together. So Oberg was one guy, and then I already have pre tournament

(49:06):
bets on Joaquin Neeman, will Zalatorisand Tony Fenow, and even's on Xander
Schaffle. I don't think any ofthose four guys are bad plays at this
time. Fenw at one under parhe is second in this field currently for
strokes gained approach, and Xander Schaffleplaying pretty well as well. He started
off a little bit a little bitshaky, made a couple bogies, but

(49:29):
really fought back to get to evenpar, and now you can find him
at fifty to one, which isa pretty good price. Now Nieman and
xalatoris both gaining strokes on the field, Niemen doing it on approach and Tita
Green so is. Xalatoris not quiteas heavily as Neeman is, but both
playing very very well. And NiemanI've seen anywhere from twenty eight to thirty

(49:50):
three to one. Xalatoris even heavierthan that, about you know, thirty
six to forty five to one,I think I've seen, and they are
still in the thick of it.One thing to keep in mind here,
at the completion of round one,you want to take a look at who
is in the top ten or whois just five strokes or less off the
lead. Twenty six out of thelast thirty Masters winners have been at or

(50:15):
within five shots off the lead afterround one. So right now, five
shots off the lead would be theguys at minus two, which includes Xala
Taurus and Nieman and Oberg Brady.I think we've only got time for one
more here, but I'm you know, a lot of these books are obviously
offer you know, they want youto bet, they want you to use

(50:36):
their books, and so they're offeringboost tokens or profit boosts or whatever.
It may be for you know,just in tournament wagers, live wagers.
I'm looking at bet MGM right now. I've gotten my account, and I
assume most people do out there atwenty five percent boost to use within the
tournament here if I wanted to playit more conservatively, just you know,

(50:58):
I'm looking to make money. I'mnot looking for long shot necessarily. If
you look at the top ten market, you already touched on it a little
bit. But if you look atthe top ten market, everybody after obviously
Scotty Bryson, Holma, Rory,everybody at that point in time is plus
money. Who's a favorite for you? Who do you like? Maybe a

(51:19):
more conservative bet that is likely tocash well, I tell you, I
think the best bet you could probablymake right now. And with that twenty
five percent boost, maybe it'll makethe price a little more attractive. But
Scotty Scheffler to finish top ten seemsabout as close to a sure thing as
you could have in your pocket.I mean, you know, there's a
thought out there and within myself aswell, that this tournament might already be

(51:43):
over. You know, Scheffler withoutto the start that he got to today.
And I mean, if he continuesto play like this, and you've
got a weekend where the weather isgoing to be gorgeous and calm, so
you know, tomorrow is really thelast day that it's going to be very
difficult. And if Scheffler can hangon, and maybe he's one shot off
the lead, who knows, hemight be two in front. His price

(52:04):
right now plus one fifty to winit, it might be minus two hundred
by the end of tomorrow. Andlike I say, with the conditions so
benign. Over the weekend, ifhe's out in front, nobody's likely going
to be able to catch him,because when the weather conditions are perfect,
you're not going to give up manystrokes. I mean, Scheffler doesn't give
up many strokes anyway. And thenyou put a perfect, you know,

(52:27):
windless day out in front of him, and he's going to be extremely difficult
to catch. So I you knowthat that's conservative. You're you're going to
have to lay a little money.But yeah, yeah, he's minus twelve
hundred. Tough tens twelve hundred.Ye get too much there? Well on
BENMGM, he's not going to bean option for me. Well, you

(52:49):
know, like I say, Nieman, fenw eight Oberg. I'd probably you
know, Tyro Hatton is really ina good spot and you can get a
good number on him right now.The problem is he has not historically played
well here. Neither is Homa,you know, Cam Davis, Danny Willett,
Hoyguard. None of those guys arereally doing it for me. I'd

(53:12):
probably look towards Nieman, Zalatorus,Oberg and Fee. Now. You know,
if you don't want to lay thebig price with Scheffler, Dan,
you want to mix some one morebefore we break? Yeah? Absolutely,
Brady. How did Tiger look toyou today? It looks great, you
know. I mean I shouldn't sayit looks great. I mean I noticed
on the first hole it looked likehe was already in pain, and I'm

(53:34):
like, gosh, how is hegoing to ever manage this? But the
game was fantastic. I thought heplayed conservatively, didn't try and hit it,
you know, come out of hisshoes and just rip it. He
swung easy and hit it down thefairway and made some great chip shots.
He was putting very well. Itwas great to see him put together what
is so far one under round.My worry though, is tomorrow, He's

(53:57):
got to play twenty three holes,all of it or most of it anyway,
in very difficult wind conditions. That'sreally going to test him. Here
in Las Vegas at CIRCA he isminus two twenty five to make the cut
plus one ninety five to miss it, and prior to the tournament beginning,
he was a pretty heavy favorite inthe neighborhood of minus one fifty to miss

(54:19):
the cut, so that is reallyflipped. But boy, I wouldn't necessarily
want to run to the window andbet that he's going to make it,
because tomorrow is going to be abrutal day for him physically and also test
his golf game with those wins thatare going to continue throughout the entire day.
On Friday, Brady Canon, gethim on Twitter at Las Vegas Golfer
again. He is all over sportsgrid all the time. Tune in you'll

(54:43):
probably hear from see him, andyou definitely should. He and I will
be back together Saturday night for ingame live overtime from or actually no,
yeah, we are from ten tomidnight. So looking forward to that,
Brady much more. Masters talk onthe way how to bet the thing going
into the you know, fourth andfinal round two. I may not ask
you anything. I may just windyou up and go. This sounds good,

(55:07):
buddy. I'll see his Saturday,all right, Brady Cannon from Sports
Grid when we come back. AtonSchander from odd Chopper, let's talk a
little NBA sick and tired of oldsports talk and want to get right into
the action. The Gambler with AdamKaufman. Has you covered? Call us
now with six one seven two sixsix six eight six eight. That's six

(55:29):
one seven two six six six eightsix eight. The Gambler with Adam Kaufman
will be right back after this onw RKO. So bet MGM boost for
me, DK boost for Brian Dan. I don't know what you're working with
over there. We both went uhLudwig Ludwig luckviig Obert oberg Oberg A berg

(55:53):
Oberg went with him. Top tenboosted that to plus well for me was
plus one fifty. I think Briangot a slightly better number over on DraftKings,
but that is how I used mytwenty five percent boost token. Not
an official show play or anything likethat, but I just figured, you
know, since we were just talkingabout it with Brady, I would let
the people know how I used minein case anyone has any interest in following

(56:15):
suit. Sweet. Yeah, itlooks good. I think I got a
MGM boost too. I'll jump onthat with you guys. There you go.
I'm Goodlet's let's all roll with ittogether. So Masters talk, NFL
draft talk, let's mix in alittle NBA and talk is a little about
the Celtics failures against the Knicks tonightas possible. Our pal e Ton Shander

(56:35):
joins us from odd Shopper and Stochastic. You can get him on Twitter two
accounts he is Shanders Show, butthe one he really wants you to follow
at Shander Betts, where he isoften out there touting his successes using whether
it's the Stochastic sims in dfs orthe odd Shopper tools you know, for
home runs or for obviously just nailingsome good unders. I got to say

(57:00):
I use the odd Shopper tools.They have been on fire lately, so
it's a great service. You know, you don't need Aton to talk it
up. I'll do it for youand Aton I mentioned earlier in the show,
and welcome, by the way,that you are now tied for the
most appearances on this show, andI believe it is. Let's say,
I'll pull it up just to confirmseventeen. Now you're at seventeen with another

(57:22):
former coworker of yours, Jeff Ulrick. And you were on show number one
way back on May first, twentytwenty three. It's only fitting that you
maintain on that leader board. Sodoes this mean I can invoice you when
we hit twenty? Yeah? Ithink when we hit twenty at peyd A
Peerce I know started that point.By the way, this is like somebody

(57:44):
with a performance boost in their contract, right, you had a thousand yards
rushing and we'll give you an extramillion bucks. And I'm sitting at nine
to ninety and I'm just gonna ridethe bench show the last two weeks.
I know how you were. Kaufman, he's been watching Belichick forever. He's
gonna yeah, you're not getting theball right. Yeah, you're good man.
You're gonna be on for appearances eighteenand nineteen. Then you're never gonna

(58:06):
hear from me again again. Letyou get to twenty. So listen,
you're on with us to talk someNBA. We'll do a people's parlay next
segment. You obviously long know howthat works, and you've you've won some
with us as well. And Ido want to tell you, as you
just in the back of your mind, if you don't already have a play,
as you think about a play,just because you're here with us talking
NBA, it does not need tobe an NBA play. You can give

(58:28):
us whatever you want for tomorrow.And I say that one because it's true,
but also because betting the NBA rightnow is a freaking nightmare. I
mean, are you having any funat all in these last couple weeks of
the regular season. I'll check mypicket slip in a second, and let's
you know how I did tonight.Look, I think this is where it

(58:51):
gets a little crazy and where someof the stuff just doesn't add up to
a logical standpoint. But look,I think there are certain signs. There
are certain tells, right like TomThibodeau was not going to sit guys no
matter if they were up by thirty. And you knew that kind of going
into it. So maybe there wasan angle or two for an over with

(59:14):
the Knicks tonight, at least withBrunson again. But I think for the
most part. Man, I'm justtrying to target games where one side has
something to play for right now,in the final five games in the regular
season. So let's how about yourSixers atime? Joel Embiid is back.
They're playing the Magic tomorrow night.Philly's trying to make sure they avoid the

(59:37):
playing tournament. What do you makeof this matchup tomorrow against Orlando. Yeah,
I mean it's already at six anda half right now. I don't
really know where Orlando is from Wagner'sstandpoint, but it does look like he's
the only guy that's really questionable atthis point. So it's like, you

(59:59):
know, Gary Harrison for Orlando.I don't know, man, I think,
to be honest, the Sixers areso focused and this is just the
nature of it. If it wasJoel embian winning the MVP from a personal
standpoint, or if it's the endof the regular season to overcompensate the loss
of them beat this year. Theyput so much effort into the regular season,

(01:00:22):
and again different means to the sameend, which is they're just exhausted.
So I bet that they probably dothrash Orlando, who doesn't seem a
ton interested in coming out at leastin winning this basketball game, but knowing
of course that they're tied with Indiana, they need to kind of stay ahead
and there's momentum for them that theycan gain with this. I think the

(01:00:44):
Sixers win their seventh in a row. I don't know if they cover at
six and a half at this point, but I think they win their seventh
in a row, and ultimately whereverthey land, if it's seven or six,
they're gonna be two gassed and they'regonna get knocked out, most likely
in the first one half. Areyou finding any is there? What's the
best way to ask this? Wehave seen because of all of these scratches,

(01:01:07):
many of which are happening day ofjust tremendous line movement. I mean,
it doesn't look like the bed isgoing to work out in our favor,
but we were absolutely For instance,on the right side of the Rockets
tonight, we gave out the playas a show play last night Rockets minus
five and a half that then closepardon me at ten and a half eleven.

(01:01:27):
It's wild the line movement that youare seeing day of games because of
guys getting ruled out. Now,we do have some guys that you know
looking ahead to tomorrow, Like ChrisMiddleton is questionable, so you know he
obviously will see But like Russell Westbrooknot on the injury report after missing the
last game, Paul George, samestory, Harden is questionable. We already
know Kawhi Leonard's not going to play, So the Clippers semi predictable, I

(01:01:52):
suppose. But you got some otherbig names out there that we don't know
their status. Dan's guy, ClintCapella is one of them. A bunch
of probable guys for the Nuggets,so they're probably all going to be out
there. Lebron and Davis the typicalquestionable and probable respectively. We know Lucas
questionable, Kyrie's not going to play, so teams some are jockeying for position

(01:02:14):
others. As you said, thegames are completely meaningless and you're just trying
to kind of weigh that out.Are you finding a benefit in betting these
games the day before at all,or are you waiting until you have all
the information. Yeah, I thinkthis is where it gets really tough,
because you want to get ahead ofline movement, and we want to boast

(01:02:37):
colv and say, look, thisis why you get ahead of this stuff
a day beforehand, especially if it'sa game on the next night where neither
team is playing. But the realityis this feels like the one sport where
that almost almost is the operative wordhere, almost doesn't matter. And I

(01:02:58):
mean we just saw that with youknow, down Giannis the other night.
Like, I just think that whenyou get to this point, what are
the constants here? Let's look atthis right? So you mentioned Dallas.
Dallas right now thirteen and a half, fourteen point favorite, and that's with
Luca and Kyrie, right, Like, that's with the names that you mentioned

(01:03:21):
there, says without Kyrie right andknowing that lucas Iffy. So what's the
worst case scenario they don't play.How much do you really think that's going
to move in Detroit's favor? Probablynot much. They've won thirteen games all
year. They don't seem pretty interestedin taking advantage of stuff like that.
I think a play on Dallas isprobably safer right now than you know,

(01:03:46):
a play where even like look atblowouts Bucks again, like you know exactly
what's going on here. You mentionedChris Middleton, Okay, but they're thirteen
and a half point dogs right now, because of Giannis, because Lillard's on
the report now too, right,So that's where I think nothing's gonna change
with Milwaukee. Adam Giannis isn't comingback tomorrow tonight technically, right, Like

(01:04:12):
we know that we still a thirtytomorrow night. So I think a play
on the thunder, if you likethat side, is not gonna move much.
That's where I think at the lastcouple of games of the regular season,
that's what I try to look for. Stuff that I pretty much know
is locked in Jazz Clippers, andit's a little iffy Rockets, Blazers,
same thing. But I know withthe Bucks, I know exactly what's going

(01:04:32):
on with the Grizzlies. I knowabout bad teams right now. It sends
that's another one. How about PhoenixSacramento. That's the nightcap tomorrow, the
very late game, those two teamsseparated by a game and a half in
the in the standings. Phoenix anotherone of those teams similar to the Sixers,
that they can play their way outof the play in if they can
pick up a couple wins here overthe final weekend. Yeah, I think

(01:04:55):
that's an interesting game, right Likehere you have the Kings, playing tonight
and this is a big game,but down currently as we still have a
seton kind of wherever is in thislog jam, he's fighting back. Well,
we'll reconnect with Aton. Let's asgood as time, good as good

(01:05:19):
a time as any. Pardon meto take a break, and uh,
well, we'll get Aton back onthe line. We'll get his answer because
I do want to know about thatPhoenix sacramental game as well. Not to
tip my hand, but one ofthe things that I've been thinking about for
my People's Parlay pick. So wewill come on back with Aton Chander from
Odd Chopper after this. Sick andtired of bold sports talk and want to

(01:05:41):
get right into the action. TheGambler with Adam Kaufman, has you covered
call us now at six one seventwo six six six eight six eight.
That's six one seven two six sixsix eight six eight. The Gambler with
Adam Kaufman will be right back afterthis. On w RKO. We have
got Aton Shander here with a SamadShopper. We've smoothed out the connection.

(01:06:04):
We're all good there. So beforewe get into whatever's next on we'll do
with People's Parlay in a little bitDan had just asked Jayton about your view
of this Suns and Kings game.As it stands, the lines climbed a
little bit. Phoenix four and ahalf point favorites in a game that,
as you both mentioned, Suns areobviously trying to escape the play in tournament

(01:06:24):
altogether, it is still possible.How do you look at this game?
Yeah, I mean, I'm withyou, Dan, I think this is
definitely intriguing. You've got Sacramento nowon the second leg too, so that's
interesting that the game another big gamethat they're taking on the Pelicans tonight.
So I'm looking at Phoenix clearly inthis game for me starter heavy the fact

(01:06:48):
that they're healthy, and this isreally I think the panicle mall and maybe
the start of it. I guessto see, all right, what is
Phoenix like? What are the PhoenixSuns? I know they dealt with injury.
I know this is the first yearwith their version of a big three,
and clearly stuff like this kind oftakes time. But Nurkic healthy.

(01:07:12):
You've got some role players, complimentaryplayers around these three key pieces. This
Sun's team should be playoff built likethey should be good enough to put some
pressure on some teams and look betterthan they did in the regular season.
I believe that starts on the roadin Sacramento Friday night. So I would

(01:07:32):
lead Sun to this one. Whenyou got a game like the Bucks and
the Thunder tomorrow night, Aton,I'm like trying to figure out how I
would play this game. I thinkI would wait and probably take go to
the prop market to some of theselike bench guys that are gonna get elevated
minutes in this one. I meanwe saw okay, see just absolutely stomp
on San Antonio and night ago,and you have guys coming off the bench

(01:07:55):
like the other Jalen Williams, hehad a monster game, But like,
are you gonna be looking for someof these, you know, these bench
guys that are just going to bein elevated minutes as the starter's rest for
the playoffs. Yeah, I meanthat's the assumption here, right, there's
going to be thirteen and a halffourteen point line at home for OKC,
and I think you've nailed I thinkthe strategy there for the Thunder. If

(01:08:15):
you wanted to look at it onthe other side and say, all right,
where could there be an opening?Where can there be some value here
for anybody on Milwaukee. I wouldtarget the rebounding market. I would look
at somebody maybe Bobby Portis specific steppingin in that starting role. We know
that no matter how great the Thundercan be and can look, that's still
been an area of concern heading intothe postseason, just their ability to keep

(01:08:39):
people off the glass. So that'sprobably going to be a player prop market
that I would look at right awayonce that comes up, for a guy
like Bobby Portis on the other end. But yeah, I mean, I'm
not going to touch the side onlybecause you get disinterested. You've got a
bunch of backups in there. Whoknows what happens with the Bucks on the
way back. Although to be fair, we've seen some ridiculs less lee wonky

(01:09:00):
scores, blowouts, just teams packingit in, and that concerns me.
Well, I mean, look lookat some of these lines. Grizzlies getting
fifteen at home, Heat laying nearlyfifteen at home. We talked about the
Mavericks lank fourteen right now against Detroit. Just this game in its own right,
it's probably going to be up tofourteen, maybe fifteen, Wolves twelve
and a half. Point favorite,right, the Knicks. That's one that

(01:09:24):
I like, if we're building aparlay in a minute of all of this.
It's just insane that we have meaningfulgames at least with one team,
and there's such heavy lines there.So I don't think we'll see upsets.
But I can't imagine that every oneof these double digit numbers covers either Spurs
getting eleven at home. It's anotherone. Are totals semi reliable to you?

(01:09:45):
I mean, so go ahead,great question, Great question. I
was going on and on and theradio thing in my head said shut up
and give it back to the host, so I cut short. But that's
exactly where I think the value isfor these games, and you just have
to kind of work around some numbers. Right two twenty three and a half,
I see for the total for theThunder game. Start there, there's

(01:10:09):
probably going to be an opening togo under. I can't imagine that's going
to rise much more, especially becausewe're not going to get any real surprises
outside of maybe OKC sitting a guyor too. But I don't think you'll
see that. So under two twentythree and a half looks a little interesting
to me. There For sure,two thirty three in Cleveland for a game

(01:10:30):
in which both teams, you know, you have fight here, that seems
a little bit too high despite thepacing that we know that Indy can bring.
I think Cleveland is going to lookespecially now in a playoff type game,
so I'd look to go under thetwo thirty three there. And you
know, I like the Knicks alot. We can talk a little bit
about more of that when we starttalking about parlays here, but that to

(01:10:55):
ten and a half, I don'tknow. Something about that seems like it's
a little too low because the Knicksare just playing to blow everybody up.
The Knicks right now in this littlemicro cosm of what they are, like
the Boston Celtics of the regular season, Like there can be up twenty and
they're still going to be launching threes. So I think I like the over
there two ten and a half.Well, let's get into the people's parlay.
And Aton has been part of abunch of these, you know,

(01:11:18):
not quite seventeen, but a numberof them. He knows how this works,
obviously, but for anyone out therethat doesn't, he'll offer his favorite
play for tomorrow. Across the boardas lines exist right now anyhow, and
Dan will do the same, sowill I. We will tell you to
play the Straits, but also theparlay and hopefully we have ourselves a nice
fat payday by the close of Friday. So Aton start us off. What

(01:11:41):
play jumps out at you. SoI think right now we have a very
viable shot for the New York Knicksto eclipse where the Bucks are and overtake
that seed. They've won three straight, They've covered a bunch of games now
by at least eleven points, whichis what this spread would require. And

(01:12:01):
at this point too, like theBrooklyn Thatt's they're done, they're over.
The season has been over there,eliminated. But there's so much more right
bridges the internal drama. This isnot just the team that is cooked.
This is a team with guys whocan't wait to get out. And the
Knicks, on the other hand,are like the last team you want to
face because they won't let you justgo. They won't. They'll still beat

(01:12:25):
you up. There's gonna still runthis pace. And I know I talked
about the over here, but Ithink that's also just because the Knicks are
gonna score a lot. But reallygrind the nets down. I'm laying the
ten and a half here for myleg I think that's fair. Anything under
really eleven and a half is goodfor me. If this moves, I
want to get ahead of it.And I just think the Knicks are one
of the most focused, dialed inteams along with my sixers, heading into

(01:12:48):
the playoffs with something to play for, That's where I would start. Dan,
all right, So I'm gonna headto the player prompt market and I'm
gonna take one of those guys thatI was talking about, you know,
in that situation of one of theseguys, it's like the sixth, seventh,
eighth guy on the bench that's gonnaget elevated minutes hopefully tomorrow. And
I'm gonna take Isaac Acoro of theCavaliers to go over six and a half

(01:13:09):
points. The Cavs are at hometonight. Ocoro averages about ten points per
game at home. He shoots overfifty percent from the floor at home.
Two and he's over this number ineighteen of his last twenty home games.
So I like him to get toat least seven points tomorrow night, guys,
And he's already done this two outof three games against the Pacers so
far this season, So I likethis play a lot. It's at minus

(01:13:30):
one twenty five across the board.Beautiful. Well, I'll stay in the
NBA. And as I mentioned,going into break last segment, I was
tipping my hand a little bit.I was very curious what Ayton had to
say about Phoenix, because we're inlockstep there. I was already looking at
this one before the show started,and like I mentioned, the line has
climbed just a little bit. Itwas three to three and a half.

(01:13:50):
It's four and a half, butnot unlike the Rockets. Now, the
Rockets did lose outright despite being elevenpoint favorites. They obviously didn't cover for
us, although the Mavericks did yesterday. I'm looking for the Sons to get
the job done in Sacramento. It'sa situation where Sons arrested. It's a
back to back for the Kings.They're still playing, as Aton said,

(01:14:11):
right now as we speak, theydon't have to travel Phoenix, just in
town waiting for this game. Atthis point in time, expect everyone to
be there. The Kings are gameand a half as things stand right now.
Anyway, and if they lose,it'll go to two. But game
and a half back of the Sunsin the Western Conference sit right there in
that play in tournament mix. Theydon't really have any hope to get out
of it, but the Suns do. Sons are just a half game behind

(01:14:34):
the Pelicans. They are jockeying thosetwo teams for that six to seven seed
and Phoenix, you know, especiallywith those veterans that want to rest those
old bodies, they want to stayaway from extra play in that play in
tournament and just limit themselves to thattop six and being in the playoffs.
And the Pelicans, of course theother side of that King's game right now,

(01:14:55):
so very important contest that is goingon at the moment. So I'm
gonna go Phoenix minus four and ahalf. There are still some fives out
there. I think it's going toclimb. I wouldn't be at all surprised
if we find out somebody of noteis ruled out, maybe on the Sacramento
side with the back to back,and they're being just very little to play
for for the Kings in this one, So this thing could skyrocket. We

(01:15:17):
could see sevens, we could seeeights potentially, So I want to get
in at four and a half.So Isaaca Coro over six and a half
points, the Suns to cover theKnicks to cover those are four and a
half and ten and a half respectively. And I know Brian is crunching all
the data right now. What arewe seeing? Plus five fifty six on

(01:15:38):
DraftKings? That's our best and MGM, I guess INVM not quite as good.
Okay, So DraftKings your best spotfor the parlay and a time.
Like I said, you've hit thesewith us before, let's do it again.
Why not? Absolutely? Why not? I love it. I'll be
upsweating De Monte. Sabonis under fourteenand a half rebounds. I have my

(01:16:01):
eye on that King's team a coupleof times over. Yeah, no,
I mean that's that's become recently anodd shop or favorite. I think Sabonis
under fourteen and a half rebounds.Yeah, I mean you look at just
whatever the Pelicans were doing because theyalso played in the playing game, so
this is actually the fifth game forthe playing tournament whatever that they've played this

(01:16:24):
year, and every single one ofthese games he's been held under that number.
So if it's Valentiunis or if it'sjust coaching, or if it's a
combination of Zion, what have you. But they have done a really good
job limiting Sabonis on the glass.It was a big number because hey,
it's Demonta Sabonis and he's gonna graba ton of rebounds mostly so Yeah,

(01:16:45):
I looked at that one tonight thatthat was one of my favorites, and
after I in the break when Ichecked the slip, I'm definitely gonna need
it. Yeah, it's been thatkind of night for sure. I don't
even have a clue where I am. We'll find out everything settles after these
night games. Forget it and praymy brother. That's it. That's where
we are. Hey, John Chander, get him on Twitter at Shanders Show

(01:17:10):
at schander Bets. Out there postingslips and taking names and winning your money.
We're trying to do the same.Thanks as always for hopping on,
buddy, and uh, let's let'scash a parlay tomorrow when we come back.
We'll put this show to bed.Now Back to the Gambler with Adam
Kaufman on six p't eighty w rKO, streaming live on the iHeartRadio app

(01:17:30):
or tell your Smart speaker to playw r KO on iHeartRadio. Now it's
time to put this show to bedwith my pillow. All right, some

(01:17:57):
people's parlay best available at DraftKings.As we just talked about, everything for
this show has been loaded into ouraction app page, The Gambler with Aks
the handle eleven bets posted there,including our golf bets that are still sitting
obviously until the conclusion of the tournament. But we have the People's parlay available
to you plus five fifty six onDraftKings. My leg Phoenix minus four and

(01:18:21):
a half that is suns obviously,Nicks minus ten and a half, eight
tons leg and Dan's leg Isaac Corroover six and a half points. You
can get all those individually, aswe always do. Bankroll repairs, they're
just it's too long to rattle off. But everything is on the app for
you. Again, The Gambler withak ours Brian yours is impossible to load

(01:18:44):
into the app. You want totell the people one more time, is
this the bankroll repair? Sorry?Yes, Max Holmo to be top ten
by the end of round two andEMBIID twenty five plus points beautiful. So
that's what we got going on andwhy not a what college basketball thought?
Looks like, we've got a newhead coach coming to Kentucky. Dan,

(01:19:04):
it's gonna be Mark Pope. Yeah, yeah, the coach from b YU.
It's you know, it's it's adecent higher I don't think it really
moves the needle too much. It'sjust so interesting that Kentucky is is not
a school that is you know,like everyone would have thought this, this
big night would be coming in andpeople turned them down. Yeah. No,

(01:19:24):
it's college athletics have just changed somuch with everything that's going on with
NIL and I mean it's it's justa very interesting time in space. And
I think guys just if they're comfortablewhere they are, you know, it
would take you know, a bagand then some to get them to move
off there where they are. SoI think that way, Yeah, without
a doubt. It's just it's sofunny, you know. I guess just

(01:19:45):
the age that we are, likeI don't know, growing up Kentucky kind
of meant something dou North Carolina,these schools and not the same, not
the same with Kentucky anymore. Imean some somewhat of a laughing stock throughout
this past year and that was evenbefore you know, bowing out in Round
one the way they did right nowgoing off to Arkansas and then new coach

(01:20:08):
would have to pretty much recruit theentire roster too, like right in three
months or whatever it is until theyget on campus again, four months whatever
it is, till September. Soyeah, it's it's it's a lot of
work from Mark Pope. But youknow, transfer portal is a thing,
and I'm sure he'll bring in adecent class and they'll be all to score
because that's what he always does withhis teams. They can always score.
But defense is a problem. Imean to think how far it's fallen.

(01:20:29):
Not to bring up bad memories forself expans but it took Rick Bettino,
the Boston Celtics, the NBA toleave Kentucky Calipari left for Arkansas. Woopeg
whoa? All right. Picks areloaded into the Action app. You can
get the podcast wherever you find yourpodcast. The Gambler with Adam Kaufman.
Thanks to Aton, Thanks to Brady, Thanks also to Ryan, to Brian,

(01:20:50):
to Dan. I'm Adam say it

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