College Football Season Preview

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
It's The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Adam is out on
vacation this week. I'm Dan Watkins here guiding the ship
as we make our way through college football previews, and
we're going to start with the ACC, the Atlantic Coast Conference,
so I believe that is still what it's called, even
though well it does now expand all the way to
the Pacific Coast. And joining us for the first time

(00:24):
in quite some time, our good friend Reid Wallach from
the Early Reid Podcast. He does some stuff with Sports
Illustrated as well. He's going to join us to go
team by team here read what's up man. We are
so close to college football we can almost taste it.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
Hey, Dan, thanks for having me. It's it's definitely the
busy time of year when the call comes in. You know,
you got a spot on The Gambler with you and Adam.
Obviously you Cooni for Adam, but yeah, pumped to beyond
good time a year and I excite against the ACC.

Speaker 1 (00:53):
Yeah, I mean, people are just going stir crazy at
this point. We just had you know, NFL preseason Week one,
and people just are so crazy for football. There was
like I read some tweet this morning that just someone
I was like, this is the last Monday until like
late January that we won't have college football at the
end of the week. And it's just we're just tying
ourselves in a pretzel here, just waiting for Week zero

(01:15):
of all things to get here. And Week zero actually
features quite a few ACC teams this year. We're gonna
have Florida State in Georgia Tech. Maybe we can get
a thought on that before we let you go, But
read this conference. It's really interesting, man, because well, I
think there's three legit contenders here to at least make
the College Football Playoff, maybe make some noise, and that's
Florida State, Clemson in Miami. All three of those teams

(01:35):
here are grouped in at nine and a half weeks
for their total. But from just like a thirty thousand
foot view, what do you make of the ACC and
their chances here this season?

Speaker 2 (01:46):
Yeah, I think it's a very interesting conference for a
lot of different reasons. I think that, and you mentioned
the contenders. I think it's a little bit more wide
open when you get into the nuts and both of this,
and I think when you go a little bit further
down and you're starting to see a group between NC State,

(02:07):
Virginia Tech, newcomer SMU, and Louisville. Those four. I think
those two those four teams. I don't know if collegewell
playoff is that realistic, but in terms of making the
AGENC Championship game and having a puncher's chance to move
on to the extent expand to college football playoffs, get
that automatic bid, I definitely think it's in the world
of outcomes. Because now to tie back from the top,

(02:29):
Florida State, in my opinion, is going to be weaker
than last year. I think they lose several NFL caliber players.
And you know, Mike Norvell has done a great job
with with this roster, rebuilding it and putting in transfer
portal talent and recruiting at a high level. But still
this is not Georgia. When you lose seven to eight
NFL draft picks, that hurts a team like Florida State,

(02:51):
Clemson Dabos Sweeney. I think that this team is probably
has the highest floor of any team the ADEC. But
this is a team that fame Miss Lee. Dabo does
not go into the transfer portal. He trusts his own
ability to develop talent, so Clemson maybe there's a ceiling
question there, and Miami a bit of an enigma. Right.

(03:11):
They go out, They spend all this money on Cam
Moore from Washington State, he was Florida, went the draft.
He comes to Miami. Damian Martinez, the Oregon State running back,
very talented. This is a very high priced team. I
would say highest ceiling is Miami, but a lot of
moving parts there. It doesn't always work. You know, one year,
can you plug all these guys in really quick? At

(03:32):
Mario Cristobal. So that's kind of the quick hitting on
most of the conference, but I think a very interesting
one because I think there's a wide range outcome of
the house. Can all go this season?

Speaker 3 (03:42):
All right?

Speaker 1 (03:43):
So let's kind of go into these teams here. All
three of them have the nine and a half win total.
As I mentioned Florida State, it's just to the under
minus one twenty five to the under nine and a
half here. So we take a look at this schedule.
You start off with Georgia Tech neutral site game in Dublin, Ireland.
Then they got Boston College. This schedule doesn't really get
going here until late September early October, where they have
to go to SMU and then they have Clemson at home.

(04:06):
But anyways, as you were talking about last year, they
ranked second in experience. They had Jordan Travis, Keon Coleman,
Johnny Wilson, Trey Benson, and all those guys are now
in the NFL. I feel like this is going to
be a tough spot for them to get to ten
wins here because you got Miami later on in the season,
and then that game at Notre Dame. If the Irish
are in contention, that's going to be one of the

(04:26):
most raucous environments in all of college football this season.

Speaker 2 (04:31):
Yeah, I completely agree. I don't have any bests fading
Florida State, but it is a team that I have
on my radar that I'm not actively playing on. I'm
not a dj U Jungo believer. I think that while
this team, and I think DJU going from Oregon State
back to Florida State, maybe Mike Nivel's gonna try and
implement a run first offense, But there is no trade

(04:53):
Benson there. They're relying on a handful of different transfers
to make this running game go. So I do think
a lot of the offense is going to fall on
dju shoulder. I know he's been college now for a while,
but I just still think he's a pretty limited pass
or that you go through that schedule. I mean, forget
Georgia Tech on a neutral site in Dublin. You got

(05:14):
to add SMU at Miami at Notre Dame. Those are
three real good teams, and don't see. I know Florida
they have the hardest schedule in the country, but that's
a rivalry game. I think Florida State there are some
outcomes where this team is closer to eight wins than
ten wins. So again, it sounds like I'm making a
real case like definitely go under, but listen, there's still
a lot of talent on this team. It's a team

(05:34):
where I think nine is probably the most likely outcome,
and I'm definitely do not think that they are the face.
I would call them a vulnerable favorite in terms of
the ACC odds. I would much prefer Clemson if I
were to take a team at the top of the board.
So Florida State's definitely a team I'm shede I'm not
actively betting on I would say I'm betting against them.

Speaker 1 (05:53):
So let's talk about the Tigers. You know Dados Swiney.
As you mentioned, he's sticking to his guns. Still no
transfer portal. They prefer the old fashioned method of high
school recruiting. Wide receiver production has been a big issue
for them the past few years. Read after It seems
like for a ten year stretch they were just pumping
out first round picks at wide receiver. Now, well, we
don't really know who any of these guys are. They

(06:15):
do have a couple of freshmen that I know they're
very high on down there. Four starters are returning to
the offensive line this year, and this is also year
two for Garrett Riley's offensive coordinator. He still has kid
Klubnick there who was a huge recruit a couple of
years back, and last year snapped a twelve year streak
of ten straight of ten plus wins for the Clemson Tigers.

(06:36):
Can they get back to that this year? Nine and
a half plus one twenty five to the over looking
at that schedule, though, I could find a cup pick
out a couple of hiccups, maybe not as many as
Florida State, but starting off with Georgia in Atlanta is
just that's going to be a wake up call.

Speaker 2 (06:51):
Yeah, It's definitely that is going to be a that's
gonna be a tough one there about a nearing a
two touchdown underdog in that open against Georgia ED. Look,
they can move that game to Georgia, but and you
go through the rest of the schedule, it's not easy,
but they do have an advantageous rest set ups against
the likes of mc State against Florida State at Virginia Tech.
I do think that while it's a tricky schedule, I

(07:13):
do still and it's a team that was very high
on last year in Clemson. I really thought that they
would get back to College wall Playoff last year. Obviously
a lot of egg on.

Speaker 3 (07:20):
My face there.

Speaker 2 (07:21):
I do believe though that this offense, even if Kate
Clubnick is nothing more than a game manager, I still
do believe in Garrett Riley, who just two years ago
took a probably similarly talented roster in terms of the
offensive production on TCU with Max Dougan and Quinnin Johnson.
He came to Clemston very late in the winter process

(07:45):
after that College Fotball Playoff ron with TCU, So maybe
give him a mulligan for last year, give him another
year with Kate Clubnick. This wide receiver room though, should
be healthier for one and also better. You mentioned some
of those freshmen. I mean they got a five star
on Brian West go getting rave reviews. Tyler Brown, the
sophomore last year, he was hurt as his freshman year
at different points.

Speaker 3 (08:06):
He's back.

Speaker 2 (08:07):
Antonio Williams finally healthy usually five games last year, so
there is a lot of and Cole Turner as well.
So there is some talent on this roster that I
think that the offense film offa is going to take
over as the bell Kat running back maybe Garret Riley
candlmock this because the defense is still going to be
at worse the top three unit the entire ACC So

(08:27):
pretty high floor on the defense. We know we're getting there.
Can the offense get back to above average because this
is an offense that when you look at it pretty
crazy to say, but Clemson's offense last year you go
across the board, they were pretty middling pretty much down
the line when you go through it, I mean ninety
first and EPA per play, one hundred and fourth and

(08:48):
epa per pass second or the last fewest explosive pass right,
So they can get unlock that. I do think there's
a pass for Clem's going to get back to the
ACC Championship game. If I were setting market, I still
would I would put them neck and neck with Flora State,
probably same odds, like plus two fifty each way. I
just I don't really see much of a difference between

(09:08):
Flora Stay. I think that's baked into last year. So
I am cautiously optimistic that they're still room for Clemson
to get back to the College Football Playoffs. But this
is definitely a put up a sharp year for Dabo.
If it goes like last year, for sure, the Sharks
are going to start swimming around Dabo.

Speaker 1 (09:24):
Yeah, and I like the that the overs at a
plus one twenty five number two here to get to
ten wins. So you got three games that you got
a circle that I think they could really that really
realistically could be very very tough for them. If not,
they should lose. And that's the Georgia game at Florida
State's going to be tough. And then that at Virginia
Tech game too, that could be an insane environment in
Blacksburg in November.

Speaker 2 (09:46):
Yeah, it's farving me to the schedule, Like I said,
though some advantageous rest spots. They are set up pretty
good to at least be hopefully, you know, whether it's
a rest advantage or the other team's gonna be limping
in after a handful of games. I mean, like look
at Florias. Say, for example, they play at SMU the
week before Vennice Clemson, uh Wall Clemson, they get NTC Stanford.

(10:07):
They're going to be at that valley for a few
weeks before, so they're gonna be pretty set up there.
Louisville's finishing up a really tough stretch, Clempson gets a
buy ahead of that, and then at Virginia Tech, you know,
you just go. It's just kind of picking out the schedule.
At Virginia Tech Tech, you know, it's a few long
games in that turcy. So not as this advantageous with Clemson.
I still think I think ACC title game as well

(10:31):
within reach for this team. I still think that they
have a pretty high floor.

Speaker 1 (10:34):
So let's make our way down to Miami. The Mario
crystal ball era has been well frustrating, I would say
to put it lightly fine. Seven in year one, seven
and five last year. The you they're banking on Mario
hitting his stride this year. In year three, they made
some huge additions in the portal with cam Ward and
Damian Martinez. They should be This should by far be

(10:56):
the best offense that Mario has had here at Miami.
This schedule is favor read No Clemson is on it,
Florida State is at home this year, they get a
bye before Louisville. Now they do open up at the
Swamp against Florida in August. That game could be two
hundred degrees on the field. Whoever survives that one is
going to be is going to be the winner there.

(11:18):
I love Miami this year. I love what they've brought in.
I think cam Ward is going to be a game
changer there for them. I think they're going to be
able to do things that they haven't been able to do.
Mario Ga has a lot of guys coming back on
the offensive line, which is always the strength of his
I know the game, the game management with him is
always a gigantic question mark. But I do think that
they have the players this year to get to ten

(11:40):
years and threatened a spot to make the playoff and
at least for the first time since the expanded ACC
or since they joined the ACC maybe even make the
championship game.

Speaker 2 (11:51):
So I would say, of the teams in college football,
you have your your perennial contenders. I think you look
at the like the future Dodge, right, Dan, Like the
teams that are probably gonna win national championship, they're around
the top. It's not like the college Like, it's not
a Dancy lay Tory running college basketball, where these teams
kind of come from the woodwork. It seems like right
to make some Cinderella runs. Like the teams you know

(12:13):
are gonna be there at the end, they're probably priced
like that, right, There's not much a surprise there. Miami
is to me the enigma of college football because in
my opinion, talent wise, yes there is maybe not national
championship but Final four, right, Like they can go on
a run if it all clicks. My issue and what
I'm grappling with, and I think it's a polarizing question.

(12:34):
And Dan Town's like, you're on the bullish side, right
if you told me though, this scene completely implodes on
himself and it's like a gigantic disaster and dumster fire.
I believe it, right, Like, this scene has so many
range of outcomes. It's super high and fairly low relatives
their expectations. So I don't I'm not interested in begging
the team. I want to see it on the field first.

(12:56):
I want to see how this all looks coming together,
because there's no doubt a bunch of here with cam Ward,
with Damian Martinez coming in. Like you said about the
returning offensive line, the defensive line has size. And look,
if there's a real issue when I'm like looking at
the roster, it's probably that secondary that loses to all
Americans on the second in the back seven. I say

(13:16):
that's the issue. But you go see Miami schedule.

Speaker 3 (13:19):
Yeah, there's not that many.

Speaker 2 (13:20):
Teams that are going to challenge them through the air
like that Florida sec passing offense. Graham Mert looked, all right,
that's fine. Louisville if at all clicks. Sure, maybe Syracuse
they brought.

Speaker 4 (13:30):
In a lot of talent.

Speaker 2 (13:31):
Yeah, but that's kind of it. Virginia Texas are run
first offense. Floria State, we just said they're run first offense.
So I think Miami's biggest issue right now, what I'm
looking at on paper is the secondary. I don't know
if there's an issue for that. So it's more a
question of will this all come together. And I'm really
interested in the scene because I do think it. Like

(13:51):
I'm not saying bet this, but if I'm looking down
the border, you want a long shot. Yeah, I think
Miami does have the upset to win a national championship,
but it's more can it be realized?

Speaker 5 (14:00):
Right?

Speaker 1 (14:00):
That's why I think the way I'm going to bet
them is going to be just to make the playoff.
At plus two twenty five, I think that's a nice number.
Don't really have to work. I mean, if they get
to the ACC Championship, great, and that should help their
chances obviously of getting into the playoff even if they
lose there. But I just feel like that's the best
way to bet Miami at a good price.

Speaker 2 (14:18):
Yeah, if we have time, I could quickly do a
quick tangent on the playoff and how I kind of
view that from a white max.

Speaker 5 (14:26):
We do it to take a break and we'll hit
that on the other side.

Speaker 2 (14:29):
Perfect sounds good.

Speaker 1 (14:30):
All right, Reid Wallacks. Here, we're previewing the ACC. We
just talked about the big boys. We're going to make
our way down to some dark horses here when we
come back on The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. It's The
Gambler with Adam Kaufman. We are making our way through
the ACC right now. As we start off our college
football previews this week, I'm Dan Watkins filling in for
Adam this week. Reid Wallack of the Early Read podcast

(14:53):
is our guest read. We have entered the college football
playoff expansion era. Twelve teams now get in automatic bids
for the conference champions, each of the Power four, and
then for the best team from the group of five.
What are your thoughts on expansion this year as we
head into this.

Speaker 2 (15:10):
Yeah, I think the betting market for who's going to
make the playoff is one of the more interesting subplots
of this entire season because, like you were talking about
in the first segment, Dan, about Miami to make the playoff,
I think it'd be interesting how much this moves because
usually you lose one game, you're kind of up against it, right,
you get one Mulligan, maybe that's it, and then two

(15:31):
you're probably out. Now, I think some teams might be
able to lose three games and still get in. And
how I'm I'm not necessarily jumping in on anyone or
talking out of anyone, because the market's pretty flat right now.
I'm orginting to see what happens when someone loses, right Like,
how quick is this market gonna adjust? Because you can
lose one game, you can maybe even lose two games,

(15:53):
and it won't really matter because of how many spots
there are, depending on obviously where what conference you come from.
So like for me, the ACC, I think they're probably
gonna end up getting one team in that team that
wins the conference, and then maybe, depending on how it
all shakes out, a second team, but that like a
real narrow margin. It really depends on who it is.

(16:14):
It would have to be a Miami type of Clemson type.
So I know you were talking about Miami to make
the playoff. I think you might even be better just
taking a shot than to win the conference, because I
think that's their best and most realistic path into it.
I don't know if they're getting in as an at
large given all the other teams from the SEC and
Big Ten that are gonna have such difficult schedules and

(16:34):
have the benefit of down the eyes of the committee.
So that's just something I think is interesting heading into
the year.

Speaker 1 (16:38):
That is a very interesting way to look at it.
They're plus four to twenty five to win the conference
if you're very high on the Hurricanes.

Speaker 6 (16:44):
Like I am.

Speaker 1 (16:45):
But moving on, I do want to head down to
this next tier of teams. There's a bunch at the
eight and a half win mark, and let's start with
well one of the newcomers, SMU the Mustangs. They're fresh
off in AAC title and they move up into the
Power for this year. They returned fifteen star from last
year's team. The competition though, for Rett Lash, these team's
gonna get cranked up this year. They don't have to

(17:07):
play in Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech, or NC State, a
very favorable schedule as they get Florida State at home two,
which we were talking about a little bit a few
minutes ago. They averaged just fourteen points per game. They'll
read in the two Power four games they played last year,
eight and a half is their win total. Is this
team ready for tougher competition?

Speaker 2 (17:28):
So in my opinion, if you're looking down the line,
the number has been beat up pretty good. So I
would say ten to one is probably a little shorter
than I would prefer. That being said, I think they're
a team is trying to take a flyer on it's
SMU because, like you were just mentioned Dan, the schedule.
I know that they're moving up in class, but this
is like maybe the marginal returns with a full season.

(17:51):
The Power five is tricky, but this is as soft
of a landing as you could ask for heading into
the Power five CP petition. And what I'm seeing in
SMU is red last week comes formally from Miami. He
was at the offense coordinator there. He's been recruiting Power
five cast offs for the last two three years now.

(18:11):
So this team, again, maybe it's low level, maybe it's
more developed cast offs from the ACC, especially like Miami.
This team is like kind of from a talent perspective,
rare and to go with a lot of returning production.
So maybe this team is actually further along than a
typical jump from a G five team to an ACC

(18:31):
like you're seeing like we saw last year with Cincinnati
Struggle UCFNL, this team is jump in the Big twelve.
Maybe this is actually a better set up for SMU,
especially given the easy schedule. This team did win the
AAC last year. They were a potent offense Preston Stone
is fully recovered from his leg injury. He's starting quarterback there,
so I like asking me quite a bit. And obviously
the schedule is incredibly advantageous. So I think if you're

(18:53):
looking at like a dark horse, I just think schedule lies.
It's tough to look past SMU, especially with their high
powered upside on the offense side of the ball.

Speaker 3 (19:01):
So some of you, I'm very highly.

Speaker 1 (19:03):
Yeah, I'm looking at this schedule right now at Nevada
to open the season in week zero, next weekend, Houston
Christian at home BYU, then a buy TCU, then finally
they play Florida State in their first ACC game. That
does set up pretty nicely here for them to get
at least four wins to start off this season before
they even play an ACC game.

Speaker 2 (19:22):
Yeah, no, I think this set up really good. And again,
talent wise, it's not your typical G five to Power five.

Speaker 3 (19:30):
Jump here.

Speaker 2 (19:31):
They have a lot of Power five talent and a
lot of returning production. So I think it's the perfect
storm for the Mustangs to hit the ground running here
and really pounce on a pretty soft schedule in my opinion.

Speaker 1 (19:40):
So, since we're talking about dark horses, here we got
to talk about a team that I'm hearing a lot
about Reid, and that's the Virginia Tech Hokies. Hear a
lot about them being a dark horse to make a
run at the ACC title game. They return a ton
of production eleven on offense, ten on defense the average
just or wait, hang on here, let me find my notes.

Speaker 5 (19:59):
There we go.

Speaker 1 (20:00):
So this offense started to surge down the stretch. They
avoid Florida State too on this schedule. They do have
to go to Miami, but they get Clemson at home.
Virginia Tech. Their win total eight and a half plus
one twenty to the over heavily juice to the under
Brent Pry. I like the things he says a lot.
I think his team plays for him. I like this
schedule set up to read they could get to nine wins,

(20:21):
and I went to bat an eye at it.

Speaker 2 (20:24):
Yeah, this is a Virginia Tech team, another a trendy
dark horse. I'm not saying that. I'm not I don't
think this team is real good. I just you know,
you got pick and choos your battles, right Dan, And
this is a team that I'm not invested in anywhere. Again,
a team that's similar to SMU. They did a great
job when they made the move from Grant Wells to
Kyron Drones. He really unlocked them. It's so relatively unproven

(20:49):
as a passer, which gives me a bit of a concern.
You know, he's big, dynamic, he's like six four to twenty.

Speaker 3 (20:54):
I mean, he could really.

Speaker 2 (20:55):
Run guys over. But the passing game still met seventy
first and EPA for pass And when this team played
elite or even just very good competition, they lost by
nineteen to Rutgers, They lost by twenty two to Florida State,
they lost by thirty one to Louisville, They lost by
seven to NC State. So when they stepped up in class,

(21:16):
they got smoked pretty good. So I just wonder if
this is a little too much too soon for a
team that yeslam the comeback and they have a very
good defense, and I like what they're doing. It's just
like when we're talking playoff dark Horse Drones, Heisman chatter
as an a long shot flyer. That's where you're kind of losing.
But yeah, the schedule stuff was really great for them.
This should be again eight to nine win team, probably good.

(21:38):
Like there's nothing right. It's not like we're uncovering some
diamond here, right Like, I think everyone's well verse that
Botech is a trendy dark horse. I think the market
is correct, and I'm going to pass on Botech love
just for right now.

Speaker 1 (21:52):
So Looisville is very interesting. They made that run to
the ACC Championship game last year. Jeff Brohm is going
for a third straight year taking teams to the conference
title game. He took Purdue a few years ago when
he was their head coach. They caught a lot of
people by surprise. Last year they returned fifteen starters and
now Tyler Shug is the quarterback he transfers in, but
we know that health is always the concern with him.

(22:15):
They do have some a tough schedule though this year.
Read if they want to get back to where they were,
they have to go to Notre Dame in September. They
have SMU at home, they have Miami at home. They
have to go too Clemson. And we're looking at an
eight and a half win total for the Cardinals here.
Nine wins might be a tall task for this team.

Speaker 2 (22:33):
Yeah, under for me, under eight and a half one
of my favorite win totals.

Speaker 3 (22:37):
On the board.

Speaker 2 (22:37):
Dan at Louisville last year just a really special season.
First year for jeff ron Berry. I think mild expectations,
and he, as he tends to do as an underdog,
tends to overperform. This fixteam last year that went I
believe it was five and one on one score games
last year. That tends to come back year over year.
And it's a complete different team. It was their two

(22:58):
best go convisition players. He was the starting quarterback. Tyler
Shuck a lot of talent, but he's played. I believe
he started only six games in an entire college football career.
So and if he goes down, they have zero experience
behind him. So I think the drop off could be
pretty immense. And again let's just I think there's gonna
be regression. Let's just simply put. They go at Notre Dame,

(23:20):
at Clemson, at Kentucky, they hosts ME, they host Miami.
They got to go for and one of those five
tough games before I even get to you know, some
of the random games on the card, like an at
Virginia at ruston Augre know, if you drop a game,
there's no margin brera here. So this is a team
I think the schedule is much harder win total eight
and a half. I just think you see some natural
regression here and listen, eating Force still a good season.

(23:43):
But again, when you're betting win totals, that's a failure,
right you go eating four. But to me, a and
four with this roster and this schedule, that's a pretty
successful year for Louisville.

Speaker 3 (23:51):
So I think for.

Speaker 2 (23:52):
Them to get to nine wins, no, thank you. This
is a team that I think was overrated last year,
and again if Shuck goes down again, they are cooked.
So way under for me, definitely like the Cardinal under
at eight and a half.

Speaker 1 (24:05):
Reasonable juice, all right, Reid, we only got about ninety
seconds left with you. I do want to bring up
the North Carolina tar Heels because this one's jumping out
to me at seven and a half. Looking at their schedule,
you and c could start eight to no. I really
do believe that they return to a ton of talent.
I like the over here with the tar Heels.

Speaker 2 (24:23):
So this is a team that North Carolina a lot
of talent, always has talent, but they always drop games
they should in and MATC. Brown, there were rumors of
a retirement in the offseason. It's a schedule, it's very easy,
but they're turning from Drake made and Max Johnson, who
hasn't been nagle to get settled anywhere. It's just an
under for me or not an under. It's a no
touch for me because while the schedule's easy, the team

(24:44):
seems to underachieve often. So you've got baking a few
losses that I'm not interested in. So I think it's
better investments on the board, like a Louisville under for example.

Speaker 1 (24:54):
All right, Reid, so thirty seconds left with you? What
are your favorite futures for the ACC Besides.

Speaker 2 (25:00):
All I would say, right right now, Louisville one. And
I still think the Duke under is pretty good at
five and a half. This is a total restart. They
were pretty lucky last year to get what they got,
completely do over full new coaching staff, like one of
the lowest returning productions in the country. I think Duke
is in for some lean years here, so under five

(25:20):
and a half is still good for me and Syracuse
in week one minus seventeen, that team is ultra talented.
I don't know if it will quick, but when they
play an outmatched opponent. Give me Syracuse minus seventeen is
still good. That'd be the last I played with us.
So the Orangine Week one to beat up on Ohio.

Speaker 5 (25:37):
I like that.

Speaker 1 (25:37):
They got some ridiculous streak against the Mac too. They're
like seventeen and three since two thousand against against the Mac.
It's awesome. R Wallack, Thank you so much, man. A
lot of fun there breaking down the ACC. You can
find read at Reid Wallack on Twitter, host of the
Early Read podcast. We'll be talking to you soon, Bud.

Speaker 3 (25:53):
Happy football, all right, thanks man, happy to be back.

Speaker 2 (25:57):
All right.

Speaker 1 (25:58):
It's The Gambler with Adam Kaufman is out this week.
Dan Watkins taking you through the week here as we
do our college football previews. We will be joined by
Colby Dant momentarily hopefully here as we will preview the
Big Ten tonight. Anyways, we did our ACC preview last
night with Reid Wallack of the Early Read podcast. Great
stuff with Reid there. If you missed any of it,

(26:20):
head over to and check out our podcast, The Gambler
of Adam Kaufman. Wherever you get your podcast. You can
find us there on pretty much any platform and just
follow along a lot of great stuff from Reid there
as we broke down. I gave out one future last
night in the ACC, and that's Miami to make the playoff.
I think this is going to be a big year
for the Hurricanes as just everything I think is going

(26:42):
to break right for them with all the guys they
brought in through the transfer portal and so on. But that, yeah,
so I like that play a lot. There were some
other ones we were interested in there as well. Reid
gave out a couple that he really likes. I believe
you liked the Duke under And there was one other
one too, Brian, I can't remember. It is Louisville under
eight and a half two as the Cardinals who went
to the ACC Championship game last year. I think it's

(27:05):
gonna be a rough sledding for them as they try
to navigate their way through here. So, as I was
talking before we went to break, really really interesting year
for the Big ten here as they bring in the
four newcomers, the four teams from the PAC twelve. We
got Oregon Washington who just went to the National title game.
A lot of turnover there, and we'll get to that.
USC and UCLA so very very interesting stuff there for

(27:31):
the Pac twelve teams that are coming on into the
Big Ten this season. So Colby is running a little
late here. Hopefully we get them on in a little
bit to preview the Pac ten or excuse me, the
Big Ten here. But I'll just take you through some
of these teams, Brian. As we go through so Ohio State,
ten and a half is their win total. They had
eleven regular season wins in each of the last two

(27:53):
seasons here, but they've lost to Michigan each year, so
they're trying to get over that hump.

Speaker 5 (27:59):
This season.

Speaker 1 (28:00):
It's been three straight years that they've lost to Michigan.
So when you go through Ohio State schedule here, there's
a couple games that you really want to circle here
to hit this total and get over.

Speaker 5 (28:08):
Ten and a half.

Speaker 1 (28:09):
And I believe it's heavily juiced as we look to Yeah,
so on ESPN bet right now it's minus one fifty
to the over and there's I think this season comes
down to three games for them at Oregon, which they
go there on October twelfth. They have Penn State at
or No, they go too Happy Valley at Penn State
this year and then of course they have the Michigan game.

(28:29):
Michigan does come to Columbus this year as they try
to end their three game losing streak to the Wolverines.
So basically, if you think they can win two of
those games, which they should, they'll probably be favored in
all of them. I think except for the Oregon game.
That's gonna be an interesting one. I can't wait to
see that spread there, Brian, if you could head over
to the odds for that game, I think Fandule's definitely

(28:53):
got it. DraftKings might too. But if you can look
at that Oregons in the Ohio State game and just
let us know what the line is there for that one,
I really appreciate it because I think if Ohio State
is not favored there, then they should be favored, I
believe in all eleven of their other games. But big
year for the buck Eyes, tons and tons of pressure.
As I mentioned, every but pretty much everybody except for
Marvin Harrison Junior is back this year. They got seven

(29:16):
returners on offense. Will Howard you might remember him. He
was the quarterback at Kansas State. He was the quarterback
at Kansas State last year. In the year before he
brought them to a Big twelve championship. He is now
the quarterback at Ohio State. They also have a couple
of big time recruits coming in. I think Julian Saying

(29:37):
I believe is his name, Yeah, Julian Say and Airon
Nolan also there. So he's going to have pressure if
he doesn't perform. So it's gonna be a really interesting
thing there for the buck Eyes this this season and
if they can get to that toll.

Speaker 5 (29:51):
Did you find that game against Oregon.

Speaker 6 (29:53):
Brian, Yeah, it's a pick them October twelve, It.

Speaker 1 (29:55):
Is a pick them, So on the road there, it's
gonna be really interesting. But it's gonna come down to
I think this year basically for Ohio State this year
and the way things are set up, it is pretty
much championship or bust. I mean, you get so far
in the past couple of years they go eleven and two,
eleven and two eleven and two each of the last
three seasons. Of course, they lose the Michigan each one
of those. That's the only team that's beating them in

(30:17):
the regular season the past two years and three years
ago they lost to Oregon as well, So it's gonna
be very interesting there.

Speaker 5 (30:24):
With the Ohio State.

Speaker 1 (30:25):
There's just no way, Brian that I mean, unless you're
just gonna take the outright ticket for them to win
the national Championship. I'm not sure if there's another way
to really bet them, because plus four hundred's the best
you can find for them to win the National Championship,
and then you look here to win the big ten
plus one fifty pretty much across the board there, and

(30:45):
then Oregon's right behind them, So it's pretty tough. I mean,
if you want to find a good number with Ohio State,
there just isn't one. I mean, basically going game by
game I think is probably the better strategy there. I
think the future market is pretty much tap dry, unless
you think they just run through everything. All right, So
moving on, we're gonna talk about Oregon here. Ten and
a half is the win total for them as well.

(31:06):
Third year for Dan Landing at the Helm of Oregon.
They beat everybody other than Washington on their schedule last year.
They return a ton of talent, seventeen starters. They added
Dylan Gabriel in the transfer portal. He's been the quarterback
at Oklahoma the past couple of years. He was at
LSU before that, so it's a third stop for him.
Oregon returns eight starters on offense, nine on defense. They

(31:26):
went twelve and two a year ago. Like I said,
the only team that beat this team was Washington. They
just could not figure out Michael Pennox. So they've added
in the transfer portal too. Like I mentioned with Gabriel,
as they're trying to navigate the post Bonix world that
they now find themselves in. A lot of people think
Dylan Gabriel is going to be a Heisman finalist, and

(31:47):
if he is, Oregon should really cruise through this schedule.
I think a lot of the Big Ten they're going
to be in for a root awakening with how physical
this Oregon team is. This isn't your Marcus Mariota or
Dennis Dixon Oregon teams from ten plus years ago. They're
much more physical. They can beat you in a number
of different ways. But you got three key games here,
I bet I've circle. Actually, no, you have four or

(32:07):
five of them. Really, when you look at their schedule,
they do play Oregon State. They've lost three out of
the last four times that they went up to Corvallas.
Bryan so that game's on the road. That could be
tricky for him that they just haven't played there well
there in the past, but a ton of turnover for
the Beavers. That's there without a conference this season, so
that's gonna be a really tricky one there for him too.

(32:28):
They obviously play Ohio State, and Brian just let me
know that on FanDuel, Oregon State is a one and
a half point favorite, where on DraftKings it's a pick them.
So shop your lines people. You can find a little
bit of a better number. If you do want to
back Oregon at other books. Then they got to they
have to go to to the big House at Michigan.
They go at Wisconsin. They have Washington at home this

(32:48):
year too, obviously a much different Washington team. So Oregon's
interesting too. If you look at their odds, they are
plus two hundred pretty much consensus to twenty five. There
is one of those hanging out there to win the
Big ten. I do like Oregon is really interesting, Brian.
You know, I've been trying to debate if I want
to talk myself myself into them winning a national championship

(33:10):
this year. I think they have all the pieces. I
think they're really going to surprise a lot of people,
and if they can, if they beat Ohio State at
home at Austin, I think this team is just going
to be a freight trained steamroll here.

Speaker 5 (33:22):
But do you have any opinion on Oregon?

Speaker 6 (33:25):
I can't say I'm the Oregon officiano in August right now? Yeah,
if I it sounds like Bo Nicks is the only
guy that they lost him last year just.

Speaker 1 (33:35):
About just about they lost I think a couple guys
on the line and that's about it. But Tesz Johnson
still back at wide receiver Troy Franklin, who the Broncos
took in the fourth round, he was there too. That
was Bo's basically a banky the past few years. But
if you had to pick between the top two in
this conference, who would you pick out of the.

Speaker 6 (33:51):
Top Yet, I love all of Ryan day hate, so
I would gladly root for Oregon and hope that Oregon
makes it at least wins the big ten over House
State this year.

Speaker 1 (34:00):
Fair enough, Yeah, they're definitely a national title contender. I've
been debating scooping up in Oregon ticket.

Speaker 5 (34:07):
So that's those two teams. Then we move on here.

Speaker 1 (34:10):
We head down to this next tier, my Tier two,
and that starts with Penn State. So their win totals
nine and a half. The expanded playoff might benefit Penn
State more than any team in the country. They've been
right there if you look the past few years ten
and three, last year eleven and two, the year before that,
they had another eleven and two, a couple of years
a couple of years ago before the COVID years, they've
consistently been that next tier down where they're not quite

(34:34):
in the four team playoff, but if the playoff was
at twelve, they'd be. I think they'd be almost perennial.
In every single year, Ohio State and Michigan have stood
in their way. There's no more divisions in the Big
ten anymore, so they can just pretty much. I mean,
if you look at their schedule too, they don't even
play Michigan this year, which is just wild to think

(34:54):
the Penn State and Michigan won't play in the regular season.
They also avoid Oregon and Iowa. Nine and a half's
that number. I was a big drew Aller guy going
into last year, but I felt a little bit.

Speaker 5 (35:05):
Let down his stats.

Speaker 1 (35:07):
If you look at him twenty five touchdowns, just two interceptions,
completion percentage right around sixty twenty six hundred yards, and
thirteen games or so his wide receivers just I mean,
it was just such a gigantic question mark that it
really really prevented them from really doing anything through the air.

(35:29):
But they had Julian Fleming and the transfer Portal, who
I thought was a really good player for Ohio State
a few years ago. He kind of got buried on
that depth chart behind Harrison and Agbuka and all those guys.
He's at Penn State now, so that gives them a
really good senior receiver. They got some good younger guys
Harrison Wallace, Cayden Saunders as well, both sophomores coming back
for and the wide receiver group. They got that two
headed monster at running back and Nicolas Singleton and k

(35:51):
Tron Allen. The offensive line is good. We know with
Penn State the defense should always be good. Seven returning
starters there too. So Penn State is very interesting. And
if you're looking for a dark horse, I gotta find
their odd to make the playoff.

Speaker 5 (36:04):
Here.

Speaker 1 (36:05):
Let me see if I can pull it up. We're
trying to find Penn State to make the playoff. Let's
see as I go navigating there we go, so Penn State, Yeah,
minus one forty to make the playoff. I do think
this team might just sneak in there and get in
is like that ten eleven twelve seed. They should fit
right in there. Nine and a half wins, So you've

(36:26):
got to think, you know, you go through here. There's
a couple of those tough games, but at USC at Wisconsin,
that's definitely those definitely aren't easy. They got Ohio State
at home. I think that's gonna be a day game.
They wanted that to be the typical classic whiteout game
that they normally have, But so I think that's gonna
be a day game anyway. But Ohio State should be

(36:47):
able to get to ten wins here. I mean that
really the only true loss when I look at their
schedule is Ohio State. So all right, we're gonna step
aside for a minute. We're gonna try to connect with
Colby again. We'll be back and we'll fly through some
more of the Big Ten.

Speaker 5 (37:00):
All right, welcome back.

Speaker 1 (37:01):
It's the Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Adam is out this week.
I'm Dan Watkins filling in. So our people's parlay tonight.
We got one leg in my leg the Dodgers and
Brewers over that has already hit Brian's legs. Tracking well,
we need the San Diego Padres on the run line
in the first five innings. They're up one nothing in

(37:22):
the bottom of the third, Brian, I'd feel much more
comfortable if we could get another run or two there
from the Padres, just in case, and then our last
leg here, Rob Donaldson, our guests. Last night, we need
at least three runs from the Chicago White Sox. We
were heading to the bottom of the ninth. Hopefully Clay
Holmes is coming in for we just need to.

Speaker 5 (37:39):
We just need to.

Speaker 6 (37:39):
It's a three or on lead, so hopefully safe situation.
I think we might bring him in here.

Speaker 1 (37:43):
Hopefully we get Clay Holmes in here, who has just
been an absolute mess as of late for the Yankees.
It looked like Tommy Canley was in I'm not sure
who's coming in there, but we are keeping in our
eye on that. So hopefully we can hit a parlay tonight.
That'd be wonderful. Anyways, Adam gave out a a second straight,
well or an additional.

Speaker 5 (38:02):
Straight for us.

Speaker 1 (38:05):
Terrey Scooble, who that hit his k prop over seven
and a half, I believe it was. He finished with nine,
So that hit for us. And by the way, guys,
we post all of our plays on the Action app.
You can head over to our page at the Gambler
ak and you can find all of our plays. Follow along.
We've been it's been much more green. Been seeing much
more green than we were in the earlier parts of

(38:26):
the summer. So anyways, that's what we got going on there.
And if you miss any of our shows, check out
our podcasts at the Gambler with Adam Kaufman wherever you
get your podcasts. All right, let's get back to the
Big ten. We're still struggling to connect with Colby here,
so I'll just keep going through the teams. I did
my research anyway, so we'll keep going. Michigan they're the
defending national champ. They've won this conference three straight years.

(38:48):
But as we know, Jim Harbaugh, he has gone to
the NFL, and just like what is left in his
wake is it's everything is just up in the air
with Michigan right now. I mean, you got the Connor
Stallion stuff that's going on still it's getting that's getting
played out. He's obviously no longer with the program. Searan
Moore is the head coach. Now remember him, he was
the one he was the offensive coordinator, offensive line coach

(39:09):
last year. He filled in that game against Penn State,
was the guy that was crying after saying that he
loves Jim Harball and all that kind of stuff. So
a lot of changes to this team. Eight and a
half is their win total. Obviously you're going to see
some regression here. They're not going fifteen to zero again.
This team, they just don't have the talent and the cohesion,
the chemistry that they had a year ago.

Speaker 5 (39:29):
All those changes. Just two returning starters.

Speaker 1 (39:31):
I think Donovan Edwards, the running back in Colson Lovelin
the tight end are the only guys back. They replaced
the entire offensive line, all these new faces that are
going to be seeing the field, and then he got
six new starters on defense. This schedule is not easy.
One of the games of the year is right away
in Week two, Texas at Michigan at the Big House.

(39:52):
So they got Texas coming in there, they got USC
comes to the Big House as well. They come in
off of By and then Brian whence you try giving
Colby a call again? And then they have to go
to Washington on October fifth, they have Oregon at home
at the Big House. They have to go to Ohio

(40:12):
State this year. So those are five games in those
they basically they have. I'm not sure that they can
win a single one of those games, and they have
to win at least one of them if they want
to get to nine wins. I think they have to
win at least two of them if they want to
get to nine wins. So we're still trying to connect
with Colby. Hopefully we get him here and he can
hop on. But anyways, Iowa is a very interesting team

(40:33):
this year. We know the history with Iowa. Their defense
is phenomenal. They only gave up seventeen plus points twice
last year. They ended up losing both those games because
they just can't score on offense. They have gone and
they have Kirk Ferns is the longest tenured coach in
the FBS. He fired his own kid, who was the
offensive coordinator. As they look just just be like halfway respectable.

(40:57):
And I think we have kolbe Dant with us now,
Kobe I know you're big on Iowa this year. Eight
and a half is their win total. I think you
like him to go like way above and beyond that.
But what do you think about the Hawkeyes?

Speaker 2 (41:08):
Uh?

Speaker 4 (41:08):
Yeah, I'm really bullish on IOWOULD like the fact that
they did get rid of his son. And then Tim
Lester comes in, and I know some people have said
that the offense in the first couple of days of
camp hasn't been great, but it'll catch on. Lester scores
a lot of points. You know, he's a quarterback that
played at Western Michigan and then if you go back
and when he coached at Western Michigan, he beat the

(41:30):
pit team that won the ACC championship a couple years
ago with Kenny Pickett and they put up a lot
of points. If anything, defense was their problem. So I
think they're going to open up that offense a little bit.
I think they're a little more talented on the offensive
side of the ball, a little more healthy too. And
then the defense has by my account seven seven super
seniors on the defense, so it's an incredibly old team.

(41:53):
So that's really the logic. And then the schedule really
I only have them as a dog at Ohio State. Now, sure,
maybe maybe they lose another one there because I will
play so many close games, but I think there, I
think they're a team that not only will contend for
the Big Ten Championship because these these gigantic conferences and
these tie breakers, they might even be able to get

(42:15):
in that. I actually think if you're an Iowa fan,
you don't want to get in the Big Ten Championship.
You want to you want to be just you lose
the Ohio State game and you get into twelve team
playoff and you host a playoff game. But I think
they have a great shot at doing it. They don't
play Michigan, they don't play you know, they don't They
don't get Oregon, they don't get Pinned State. They just
get that game at Ohio State, and the other two
they don't even get us see. So the schedule is

(42:37):
really good.

Speaker 2 (42:38):
It sets up for them.

Speaker 4 (42:39):
I like the Hawkeyes this year.

Speaker 1 (42:40):
Yeah, so before you came on and thank you so
much for joining us here, as we do our Big
Ten preview, we broke down a couple of the big boys.
I'm really high on Oregon this year. Ten and a
half wins. I mean, they got those what do we go.
I think there's like three to four games here that
are real swing games here for them to get to
that eleven win total. Obviously you got Ohio State coming in.
That's a pick them. On most books, they're favored by

(43:01):
one and a half. I think on FanDuel they go
to Michigan. Washington's been a thorn in their side the
past few years, but that is obviously a much different thing.
What do you think about the Ducks and their chances
to uh to make it all the way this year?

Speaker 7 (43:14):
Yeah, no, I think it's I think it's a good play.

Speaker 4 (43:17):
I actually think, you know, and I like the fact
that it seems like, you know, Georgia and Ohio State
getting all the talk. Ohio State's got more question marks
to me than Oregon. Does you look at what Oregon
has uh, you know, bringing in Dylan Gabriel and even
bringing in Dante More. I think if Gabriel, because you
know he runs a lot, he does get thinged up.
But Dante Moore, I think is that it could be

(43:37):
a very valuable transfer portal. Get uh and Phil Knights
made it known and he's going all in and you
can tell by the roster that he has put together,
and then you add in their home environment, and then
you add in the schedule. I do think they will
destroy Washington this year. I think Washington is due to
have a really bad year. Uh and they get the

(43:57):
fact they get the Buckeyes at Austin in Eugene. I
think is is you know, their advantage, especially with the
experienced quarterback play at Michigan. Okay, maybe they trip up there,
but even Michigan, I'm curious to see what they look
on the offensive side of the ball. I think I'm
on board with their with the over here, and I

(44:18):
think they're a contender to win the championship. I actually
think the roster wise, I think it's the second best
roster in college football.

Speaker 2 (44:24):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (44:24):
I think they're gonna catch a lot of these Big
Ten teams by surprise with just how physical they are.
And I was I was telling Brian the last segment,
this is not your older brothers, Marcus Mariota, Chip, Kelly,
Dennis Dixon Oregon Ducks team.

Speaker 4 (44:39):
Yeah, I mean, this is a team that I mean,
Dan Lanning has basically brought in that Kirby smart you know, mentality,
and this this team is nothing like that. This is
a team that will beat you down. Uh that's why
if anything, like Ohio State's got to proved to me
that they can get that physical I trust Organ's physicality
this year much much in the vein of mission against

(45:00):
physicality a season ago.

Speaker 1 (45:01):
So Ohio State they're bringing back just about everybody, it
seems like, besides Marvin Harrison and Kyle McCord. I was
trying to like, I was like going through my like
just trying to rack my brain. Here is there a
team like in recent memory that had the amount of
pressure that the Buckeyes have on them this year, Like
everybody's back, Harbaugh's gone. They are a right there with

(45:23):
Georgia as the favorite in the country to win the
national championship. I mean, there is so much pressure on
this team. But yet ten and a half is just
their win total. Here is they have a couple of
huge games, the one up at Eugene, at Penn State,
and then of course Michigan to end the season.

Speaker 4 (45:37):
Yeah, I mean, I still think the over will hit
even though I have like the Will Howard thing was
weird to me now at the time, it was Bill
O'Brien that was there off of the coordinator and he
since gone to Boston College and took the head coaching job.
But I thought cam Ward, I thought Dylan Gabriel. I
thought any of those quarterbacks, you plug him in there,
and all of a sudden the Ohio State will fly.

(45:59):
The will Howard was incredibly strange to me. Now I
will say, after the fact, they get Chip Kelly, and
I do think, well, Howard actually kind of sits plays
offense a little bit better than Bill O'Brien's. But it's
still a question marked to me, and it's a big
one at that the schedule though, the non con they
play nobody. I mean they pull in Michigan and put
Ac in Western Michigan and Marshall on the on the

(46:20):
non con. But I do lean over. But I will say,
like as far as national championship big picture stuff, I
have more question marks than say Oregon or Georgia. And
that's what's mainly the quarterback position.

Speaker 1 (46:33):
So USC is kind of like the reverse Iowa. You
know that we know they can score, but they can't
stop and nosebleed. Alex Grinch's gone long gone as the
defensive coordinator, Dan Lynn steps in as DC comes in
from across town from Ucla Colby. If this defense like improves,
like even like just a smidge, like can Lincoln Riley
compete right away in the Big Ten?

Speaker 4 (46:54):
I actually love this over This is one that I've
already bet. I think so, And I actually think one
of the bigger questions everyone keeps bringing that up USC's defense,
and I get it rightfully, So they were horrible, But
I would also ask the question the other way, like
USC is capable of scoring twenty one points in five
minutes when I look around the Big Ten, and this

(47:14):
has kind of been the story over the past few years.
The quarterback play in the offense has been terrible. So
I think, like you're playing Minnesota or Wisconsin, you go
up twenty one nothing, that game is over. I liked them.
I think they're more talented, and I do think Lynn
on the defensive side of the ball will add it
a physicality. Now it won't be Pete Carroll USC physicality,

(47:35):
but it will be an improvement to a season ago.
And I do think that they're kind of flying under
the radar. I think they have a very favorable schedule
and I wouldn't be surprised really if you play for
the like with the tiebreaker scenario, I could totally see
USC getting to the Big Ten Championship and then at
that point it's a one off. But you look at
that schedule they're at in Michigan. They have a bye

(47:57):
week to prep for that. Yeah, even if they lose that,
I think they'll beat Penn State at the coliseum there,
and then they don't draw Ohio State. They don't have
Oregon on the schedule. So I think it's a pretty
good path for them to get to the Big Ten Championship.
I like the over and the Trojans, and I think
they will be a in the mix there come come
late November, depending on that tiebreaker.

Speaker 1 (48:17):
So this next team, the Nebraska Cornhuskers. This might be
my favorite spot Colby. We got the year two Matt
rule thing going on. The win total here is seven
and a half. Each of his previous stops. He's increased
the win total by four wins in the second season.
He had five a year ago. If he does it again,
that puts him at nine. We clear this by a
full game. They were turned seventeen starters, but the big

(48:38):
question mark, true freshman Dylan Rayola, is under center. He
was one of the top recruits in the country last year.
This schedule sets up nicely, though. They could be favored
their first seven games before they play Ohio State at home,
and let's say it, and if they do their job
and Chuck holds, they're seven and zero going into that game.
We just need one more win from him here to
get to eight wins through the last part of that schedule.

Speaker 4 (49:01):
I see the logic because the schedule is it does
set up really nice for Nebraska. I just don't know
that I can back a freshman quarterback, even though I
hear everything I hear is that he's incredible. It's just
I got to be able to see it first, Like
if that happens, I can totally see if he's legit.
I think it happens, you know, but I just need

(49:22):
to see it because I do think, you know, and
some of these Big Ten defenses they're going up against
their first seven. You know, Illinois I think is going
to have a rebound from a defensive point of view.
Ryan Walters at Purdue, now they're not a great defensive team,
but I think he's a good defensive coordinator. And then
Rutgers I do think will be a top twenty defense.
So learning those you know, those three big tests. I

(49:42):
even think the Colorado game to a certain extent, with
the corners that they have, could be an interesting spot
for him. He's got to prove it to me. I
don't like taking the over on freshman quarterbacks, but I
tell you, the schedule is.

Speaker 2 (49:56):
There for you.

Speaker 4 (49:56):
So in that regard, I do do think know if
he plays to his potential and year one, I could
see that over hitting and I could even see them,
you know, flirting with the big with with you know,
a nine win season and potentially the college you went
nine of the Big the Big ten, I feel like
you're gonna be in the mix for the twelve team playoffs.

Speaker 1 (50:13):
So now we get to this like next tier of
teams that are all right at six and a half
five and a half wins. Here, I'll rattle off a
couple for you because we don't have a ton of
time left. But in the six and a half window,
you got Wisconsin, Rutgers, Maryland, and Washington. To any of
those teams and their totals jump out to you that
that you're running.

Speaker 5 (50:29):
To the window.

Speaker 4 (50:31):
I love the under on Washington. Uh I, regression is
coming right yeah, And I they were calling Idaho State
trying to get you know, calling players at Idaho State
trying to get off at the Lineman because they don't.

Speaker 2 (50:43):
They haven't had from.

Speaker 4 (50:44):
What I understand, it's been like a fire sale there,
and they're just they're trying to get any off of
the Lineman they can get now. And I the Will
Rodgers thing, I was never sold on him in Mississippi State.
He comes in there, it just and then they're jumping
to a new car, a lot of change, a lot
of turn over, and then add on the jump into
the new conference. I just think that they're they're probably

(51:06):
a game or two. I was surprised at that number
at six and a half. I think it should be
more like four and a half. So I love the
under there. I also like the under on Wisconsin. I'm
not buying into the dairy raid with Luke Fickle there,
especially with this schedule, and maybe they maybe they turn
the corner next year, but the fact they get Alabama,
Penn State, Oregon and then they have trips you know,

(51:28):
at Iowa, it's just too much. At USC there's too
many good teams there on the schedule. Even at Nebraska.
If Raola hit like you say, and even at Rutgers.
I think Rutgers is going to have a stinky good
year this year. So I like the under on the Badgers.
I've already bet that one.

Speaker 1 (51:43):
Yeah, the Rutgers one is very interesting because that schedule
does set up nicely. But as we look at the
Big Ten odds board, what what have you placed? So
we talked about Iowa a little bit, but what here
in the Big Ten do you do you really like?

Speaker 5 (51:55):
We got about a minute.

Speaker 4 (51:56):
Left to make the playoff. I do like the Iowa one,
Like I said, you know, even if I would go
to the Big Ten championship game and loses, I think
they'll probably get in, but they'll probably have a road game.
But if they lose the Ohio State and they don't
have the tiebreaker, I think that's the best case sarry
for them. So I think it's plus six hundred for
them to make the playoffs. I think that's a very

(52:18):
good wager. I also think the USC angle for them
to get to the playoffs, So I would take action
on both of those. As far as winning the championship,
I'm going to go Ohio State beats Oregon in a
rematch in the Big Ten Championship.

Speaker 5 (52:30):
All right, I like that. I like that a lot.

Speaker 4 (52:32):
All right.

Speaker 1 (52:33):
Colby Dant from the Sports Gambling podcast Network, Kolby, thanks
so much for joining us. Man, we'll talk soon. Welcome
back to The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Adam is out tonight.
I am Dan Watkins taking you through back to school
week or Brian, it's really like syllabus week when you
think about it, you know, I'll be back to your
college days. We're kind of just you know, previewing everything,

(52:54):
just going over what the semester is going to look
like as we dive deep into college football. Our stop
tonight is in the Big Twelve, and here to preview
it with us is rodal Wires, new college sports editor,
and that is Chris Benzi and Chris.

Speaker 5 (53:07):
What's going on? Man, Welcome to the show.

Speaker 8 (53:10):
Nothing much, Thanks for having me on. I appreciate it.
I'm excited to talk some college football with you.

Speaker 5 (53:17):
Yeah. It's exciting. Yeah go ahead, yeah, yeah, sure thing.

Speaker 1 (53:21):
I mean, I'm just I'm fired up for this conference, man, like,
because there's just like so many different things in this
conference that can happen, and I really don't know what
to make of it. But I gotta ask you, what
do you most intrigue by with the Big Twelve this
year as we head into a new look Big twelve.

Speaker 8 (53:35):
Yeah, I mean, I think you kind of said it
right there. I'm a little I'm excited to see some
new teams in the Big twelve. I mean, we had
some additions last year, but all of them kind of
ended up being bottom dwellers. You had like BYU Houston, Cincinnati.
You had a bunch of teams, even UCF didn't really
perform in their first year in the conference. And now

(53:57):
you're adding another layer of teams to that, and you
get you get Colorado back in the Big twelve. So
and even Utah who's obviously one of the conference favorites
now this year. So it's it's a new look. Like
you said, it's a conference realignment on a yearly basis
at this point. So it's it's it's.

Speaker 3 (54:17):
Fun to see.

Speaker 8 (54:18):
And and another thing I like about it too is
with Texas and Oklahoma gon Uh, kind of a there's
kind of a big fish in a small pond sort
of situation with Big twelve where they were kind of
the favorites every year and now you go from Texas
and Oklahoma being out out of the top every year
to a kind of a more wide open conference where

(54:39):
a number of teams can kind of get into the
race for the title.

Speaker 5 (54:43):
Yeah, I completely agree.

Speaker 1 (54:44):
This is this is the conference where like doing some
diving and just going down the board, you can really
find some value here. Like I got, I got the
Odds board in front of me right now for the conference.
It wouldn't surprise me if any of like the top
seven teams here ended up, you know, hoisting the Big
Twelve trophy at and T Stadium and I'm going from
Utah all the way down to Arizona like any of
those teams. It would not surprise me one bit. But

(55:07):
to you, do you feel that way as well, that
this is the conference to go and try to find
some value.

Speaker 8 (55:12):
Yeah, I think so. I mean you look at a
lot of the other conferences and there's a lot of
especially Power Conference, there's some top heavy teams, and the
Big Twelve really just doesn't have that our team at
the top in this conference. So I think, as you mentioned, yeah,
I think this is kind of a conference where you
can go and you can find some value anywhere down

(55:34):
the board to the top. As you mentioned, I think
six is probably a good spot. I mean, even West
Virginia is not completely out of it, maybe a little
maybe a little far down, but they have like a
they have an interesting quarterback in Garrett Green. There's plenty
of There's plenty of intrigue in this league going into
twenty twenty four.

Speaker 1 (55:51):
Just like generally speaking, when we watch these games, is
this going to still be the same Big twelve for
viewers where it's like points galore, just like defenses need
not apply here.

Speaker 8 (56:01):
Yeah, I mean, I think there's probably a little bit
of a difference when you're losing. Texas and Oklahoma, like
those are two of the big point getters, but Utah
is a little They still score some points, but they've
been known to run the ball a little more. But
it's still a lot of the core there. You still
like UCF is in there. They're a huge passing they
added them last year. So yeah, there's plenty of There's

(56:23):
plenty of points to be had across the board in
this league for sure.

Speaker 5 (56:26):
All right, very good. Let's dive into some win totals here.

Speaker 3 (56:28):
Man.

Speaker 1 (56:28):
Let's start with Utah. They're the favorite, rightfully, so in
my opinion. Nine and a half is their total. Kyle Whittingham,
to me, is one of the most underrated coaches in America.
The physicality that this team always plays with and the
way they play at home is just impressive. You're in
and you're out, and they finally get Cam Rising back.
It was a running joke on the show last year

(56:48):
when we were doing going week by week previewing games, like, oh,
you know, he was on the practice field, he was
walking around, they could see him. But he is back
this year coming off that injury in the Rose Bowl
from a few years ago. Well, and Chris, all this
guy does when he's healthy is win conference titles. So
nine and a half for Utah, How do you feel
about this team with what I think is a very
favorable schedule for them?

Speaker 8 (57:11):
Yeah, I mean that's a it's a good it's pretty
good line. It's kind of sat around where it's at
for most of the time. If you look at the
just kind of the conference championship, which kind of mirrors,
that's one where you can find a little easier to
find the uh the like betting trend history, and this
one's kind of sat around three forty to three twenty

(57:31):
to win the conference championship. So I think that that
win total is probably a good amount. But like you're saying,
they have a veterans squad here and with Winningham still
under directing the team, and you have an experienced staff
Andy Ludwig still at OC It's just this is just
a well rounded team and you have Cam Rising under center.

(57:53):
I feel like I feel like the over is definitely
a doable a doable bet here. I think that would
be one that I be looking at the over if
I'm going with Utah here, I think the over just because,
as you mentioned, they have a lot of kind of
bottom dwellers on the schedule. It's not as super scary
there's at Oklahoma State it's kind of a scary game,

(58:14):
but a lot of their road games it's not really
they're not tough road games. And I like Utah to
win almost every game on their home schedule, and their
road games are like Arizona State toward the bottom, Houston
toward the bottom, and UCF was at the bottom. Last year.
We'll see there. They're kind of trending up this year.

(58:34):
At Colorado, it could go either way, but it's obviously
going to be probably a raucus in every environment they
go to. But I could see them easily easily topping
that total this season.

Speaker 1 (58:48):
Yeah, getting to ten, man, I'm looking at them, Like
you mentioned, they could drop both that Oklahoma State game
and the UCF game on the road and still hit
the over here on the swin total.

Speaker 8 (58:57):
Yeah, because you still have the bowl and even the
conference championship game would be included in there, assuming they
make it. So I definitely can see that over. I
like that over if I'm going to go. If I'm
looking at Utah's total for the season, I think I'm
going to go over in that in that line.

Speaker 1 (59:18):
All right, we think of like there, Let's move on.
Kansas State won this conference a couple of years ago
Chris Cleman, another excellent head coach. They finished with eight
wins in every single non COVID season since he's come
to Manhattan. They returned twelve starters.

Speaker 5 (59:31):
To this year.

Speaker 1 (59:32):
Avery Johnson, you know, he was that pop Tart bull star.
He's ready to take over as the quarterback full time
with Will Howard now at Ohio State. The schedule they
avoid Utah in the regular season, but they have five
conference road games this year. If this team plays to
their ability. Can they get over nine and a half.

Speaker 8 (59:52):
I mean, I think they can. It's definitely within the realm.
They're another They're team that's kind of a little bit
downhill with their their projected conference championships since since the
opening line came out.

Speaker 2 (01:00:07):
But I think that.

Speaker 8 (01:00:10):
Again, it's it's they don't have Will Howard anymore, but
Avery Johnson's more than capable to take over there they have.
They have Gitons returning, who is a stud in the backfield,
and he's going, yeah, he's he's gonna be great. I'm
not a very good, very high confidence in him, but
I can see there's some tough road games in here.

(01:00:33):
If they don't make the championship game, it would might
require a Bowl win to get there. I'm not sure
if they're gonna get there. I think they can put
up some points this year. It's not necessarily gonna be
the same just straight run that you've seen with with
their teams in the past, where you had Deuce Vaughn
just running it up, running up totals on a weekly basis,

(01:00:55):
both running and catching passes. But it's gonna be similar
in terms of Howard is a dual threat, but not
Howard sorry. Avery Johnson is a dual threat. But I
see that with this schedule. They have Oklahoma State at
home isn't a guaranteed win, and then you have road
games at West Virginia at Iowa State, and then you

(01:01:16):
have that Colorado and still Arizona. Arizona's a dangerous team,
as you mentioned, so I could see them losing at
least two to three of those, and then they have
to if they lose three games in the regular season,
they'd have to win a bowl game to get to well, actually, no,
to get to ten. They'd have yeah, to get to
win ten they take the bowl game. So I could

(01:01:38):
see them at least losing three of those in the
regular season, and then they'd have to win that bowl game.
That's gonna be tough. I think I might go to
under on Kansas State this.

Speaker 1 (01:01:46):
Year, So let's jump down a total, if you will.
Oklahoma State's sitting at eight and a half. Chris Mike
Gundy squad returns in nineteen starters from a team that
made it to the Big Twelve Championship game a year ago.
Ollie Gordon's the best running back in the country. I
guess he tweaked his knee at practice today, but it
sounds like he's going to be okay from the latest
that I've heard. If you have any more, would love

(01:02:07):
to hear it. He could easily be in New York
in December two. It would not surprise me one bit
with how much he handles the football. This schedule, right,
they get Utah at home, they have a trip to
Kansas State. They're going to have to at least split
those games if they want to make the Big Twelve.
Big Twelve championship game. Also, there's no Bedlam on this
schedule this year too. Double digit wins, it would not
surprise me if Oky State gets there as long as

(01:02:28):
Gordon's healthy.

Speaker 8 (01:02:30):
Yeah, I think I agree with you on that's That's
one thing I was going to bring up is I
think if you're looking for one long I mean, he
doesn't check the box of being a quarterback or receiver,
but in terms of Heisman's like that, he's probably one
of the best options there to be a Heisman dark
horse candidate in the Big Twelve. But running back again,

(01:02:53):
tough position to win it. But as you mentioned, yeah,
it's definitely a winnable schedule here that Utah home game
is going to be tough, but it is at home,
and I think they can take that one. And yeah,
I think with Ali Gordon in the backfield, assuming his health.
I have to double check that on our site here.
As of I haven't seen anything more recently about it.

Speaker 4 (01:03:17):
So.

Speaker 8 (01:03:20):
Yeah, obviously, So if you're looking at if you're looking
at win totals news on Ali Gordon, that's the time
to pounce, right like once you once you see some
Oli Gordon news, that would be the time to kind
of to make a move. If there's any sort of
additional injury info on him that makes it sound like
you could miss a little time, then it would definitely
be worth uh, definitely be worth looking at that. Again.

(01:03:42):
But as it stands, assuming Gordon isn't any serious injury,
I really do like them to hit the over this year.

Speaker 5 (01:03:50):
Yeah, plus one plus one twenty Oh.

Speaker 8 (01:03:53):
Yeah, I think that's that's perfectly Uh even with plus
one twenty I would take that money and just it's
just two this There is one game at Kansas State
that could be a little tough, but the rest of
their schedule it sets up reasonably well. There isn't really
any as you mentioned there's not really any star like
stud teams this year in the Big Twelve, and their

(01:04:17):
their biggest game I would say is home against Utah.
Other than that, I could see them winning out. I
could I could see them going into the conference championship
with one win or one loss, sorry, and that would
definitely that would get to their double digit total that
they need to hit. You said it was at nine and.

Speaker 5 (01:04:32):
A half for them, correct, eight and a half?

Speaker 7 (01:04:35):
Oh, eight and a half?

Speaker 8 (01:04:36):
Okay, well then definitely, So yeah, I'm looking at now. Yeah,
at eight and a half, I'm definitely on the over house.
I might be even interested at nine and a half then,
so at eight and a half with plus money, I'm
definitely on the over for Oklahoma State. It's assuming Ali
Gordon's health remains intact.

Speaker 1 (01:04:54):
Do they have the horses behind him on the depth
chart to make up for his loss or with that
launched just way too big.

Speaker 8 (01:05:02):
Yeah, they did lose Jayden Nixon. They did lose a
couple guys, but they added They added Trent Howland as
a transfer from or Indiana. They added aj Green from Arkansas,
but I know he was also injured. I'm checking here. Yeah,
so he's set to miss most of the twenty twenty

(01:05:22):
four season, so that does hurt their depth a little bit.
I mean, there's not going to be another Ali Gordon
on their depth chart obviously, so there is some concern
there if there isn't really a ton of experience. But
Howland did have seventy five carries last year at Indiana,
for if you're in fifty two yards and two touchdowns,

(01:05:43):
so there's a little experience there. I maybe not maybe
wouldn't go immediately on the over until I have the
Ali Gordon news confirmed that there's no major issues there.
But once I get news on that, if he's fine,
then I'm definitely interested in the over on them.

Speaker 1 (01:06:00):
All right, very good. Chris Benzene is our guest from
rode O Wire. We're gonna step aside. We will be back.
We got to talk about Iowa State because this team
is fascinating to me too. We will keep previewing the
Big Twelve with Chris when we get back. It's The
Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Adam is out this week. I'm
Dan Watkins. We are continuing our college football previews, making

(01:06:21):
our way through the Big Twelve. Tonight, the Conference of
just pure chaos. Cannot wait to see how this is
going to unfold on Saturdays throughout the fall. Chris Benzene
from RODA Wire is our guest. He's the college sports
editor over there. Chris, Iowa State is sitting at seven
and a half here with their win total. Man Matt
Campbell's Cyclones returned nineteen starters from a seven win team

(01:06:42):
last year. Campbell's quietly won seven plus and four out
of the last five seasons. This could be an under
the radar team, I think in my opinion, which is
when Matt Campbell is at his best. You got the schedule,
how it works out. You got at Iowa, at Utah,
at Kansas all three tough games, plus you get Kansas
State at home, very tough schedule.

Speaker 5 (01:07:02):
There but three.

Speaker 1 (01:07:02):
Theoretically they could go zero to four in those games.
I just listed and still hit the over on their total.
But how do you feel about the Cyclones?

Speaker 8 (01:07:10):
Yeah, I mean the schedule you did hit on the nose.
The schedule is a little tough, but I even put
I'll put it this way, when I was in Vegas,
I did put a conference championship big twelve that on
Iowa State as my dark horse, So I do like
them as a dark horse here to make the championship game.

(01:07:33):
Bill Connolly at ESPN on a yearly basis brings out
this on ESPN dot com brings out this yearly returning
production article that he puts out and it's very useful.
And at the top of the board this year top
of all of college football is Iowa State. They have
eighty six percent of the returning production returning this year

(01:07:53):
and number three is Oklahoma State. So we just talked
about so those two teams definitely sit at the top.
And Connolly mentioned when he was talking about that while
sometimes in the middle a lot of the noise doesn't
really result in much predictability in terms of change, the
teams that are at the way top, like these teams
that are hitting over eighty percent returning production, and the

(01:08:14):
teams that drop or at the way bottom. The teams
at the top game wins. The teams at the bottom
end up adding losses to their records from the previous years.
So you have Iowa State and Oklahoma State at the
top there, and I really do even with the schedule,
I feel like Iowa State could be a dark corse here.
Even if they would have to win one of these

(01:08:36):
games to make the championship game. They would have to
win at Kansas, at Utah somewhere along the line that
Iowa game that wouldn't really factor into the conference championship,
but I could see them pulling off an upset in
one of these one of these stadiums. And who knows
by week eleven if Daniels, Jalen Daniels for Kansas will

(01:08:57):
even be on the field. He's had a lengthy history
of injuries, and I'm rooting for him to obviously stay healthy,
but it uh, there's there's a lengthy injury history for
him at Kansas and by week eleven, and and also
you talk about injury histories, Cam Rising definitely uh, similar
situation where there's injury history and we're late in the

(01:09:19):
season in both of those games. So those games by
that time, you don't know what the rosters are going
to look like. But they have Abu Sama or Abu
Sama at the end of last year. Uh, he kind
of came on super late in the year and looked
really impressive, and he's going to be their new back.
A lot a lot of people see him as he
could be like maybe their best back since Breis Hall

(01:09:41):
has been there. Rock go Back's back under center, a
lot of their offensive lines back. Like I mentioned, the
returning production is there on both sides of the football,
and they just have have two solid receivers Jalen Noel,
Jayden Higgins, Ben Brahmers their their tight end. He's he's
back and he's been He's expected to be better this year.
He had a little struggle with a catch rate last year,

(01:10:04):
but I think overall that just the team's going to
improve with so much experience in another year, and just
Matt Campbell as the headman there, I'm expecting big things
from Iowa State this year.

Speaker 1 (01:10:16):
So if you agree with Chris that Iowa State's a
dark horse to potentially win this conference, you can still
get them at plus nine to fifty on FanDuel. It's
as low as plus eight to fifty on Caesars right now,
but that still has a very nice ticket to hold,
especially if they do play like that and are still
playing well into December. All right, moving on, we got
one of the newcomers here Arizona.

Speaker 5 (01:10:35):
Chris.

Speaker 1 (01:10:36):
They're sitting at eight and a half for their win total. Jetfish.
He's gone as the head coach, Brent Brennan comes in
from San Jose State. This team returns fifteen starters from
a ten win team last year. Jetfish improved this team
dramatically each year he was there, going from one win
to five wins to ten wins. Is this team still
on an upward trajectory?

Speaker 8 (01:10:57):
Yeah, I mean Arizona actually, from what I've seen now
their their win totals may have actually dropped to seven
and a half at some places, at least at fan
Duel and bet MGM they've dropped. Yeah, they've dropped to
seven and a half. So I didn't really like them
at eight and a half, but I could see at
seven and a half maybe going with the over on

(01:11:18):
that because because well I didn't. They They did keep back.
They did lose Jetfish, They did lose Jonah Coleman on offense,
but they kept Noah Fafida and they kept Tetoa McMillan.
The two stars of that offense that were there last
year are back on that offense for the Wildcats, and

(01:11:39):
they also kept They added Jacoori Crosskey Merritt from New Mexico.
They added Quality Connley in the backfield. Those are two
They're two new running backs. They're both well super experienced
running backs, Quali Conley joining the head coach over from
San Jose State, Brent Brennan. And while I don't necessarily

(01:12:02):
see them producing at the same level that they did Underfish,
it's a tough task to ask that in a whole
new regime, learning everything. I just see enough with their
schedule at seven and a half where I like it
to hit the over. I like that eight total and
it's about even on both sides. I'm still seeing a
little lean toward the over for Arizona. There minus one

(01:12:24):
twenty two on fan Duel, minus one or fifteen on BETMGM.
So in terms of the in terms of the over,
I think I do like them to hit the over
on seven and a half. If it were to jump
back up date in half, I think that's when I'm
definitely going to jump back out on them. So at
seven and a half, I think I do like Arizona's
still on the over.

Speaker 1 (01:12:45):
So I was just talking about upward trajectory a moment ago.
How's this for heading on up lance Leipol to Kansas
has gone from two wins to six wins to nine wins,
in his first three seasons here in Lawrence. They returned
thirteen starters from that nine win team a year ago.
Eight and a half is the total for the Jayhawks.

Speaker 5 (01:13:03):
Guys.

Speaker 1 (01:13:03):
It's plus one twenty to the over, minus one fifty
to the under on ESPN. Where I'm looking right now,
Jalen Daniels, as Chris was talking about a few minutes ago,
his health I think is the biggest wildcard in this
entire conference, Chris, right the first half of this schedule,
it sets up very nicely for them before they have
to go to Kansas State in October. If Daniels is healthy.

(01:13:24):
Looking at this schedule, can they get to nine wins?

Speaker 3 (01:13:28):
I think with.

Speaker 8 (01:13:29):
Daniels healthy, that's definitely a reasonable ask. But I feel
like I might still go at the eight and a
half under if I'm gonna go, if I'm gonna go anywhere.
They did lose their offensive coordinator to Penn State in
this offseason, so that's a big move. And another thing
to keep in mind is they had an insurance policy

(01:13:50):
all the time at Kansas. When Jalen Daniels was gone,
it was always Jason Bean, who was a perfectly capable
backup and it's Cole Ballard is okay, but he hasn't
really played that much and I wouldn't really trust him
at the level at trust being and as you mentioned,
the wildcard, if we're if we're talking that Jaylen Daniels
stays healthy the whole year, Yes, I can see it

(01:14:12):
going to over eight and a half. But I'm just
I'm just not convinced that it's going to his back
isn't gonna bother him again. It's just something that's popped
up multiple times, and that's the thing that scares me
too much.

Speaker 3 (01:14:25):
Too weird.

Speaker 8 (01:14:28):
This year, I can't remember if they I know Northwestern is.
I can't remember if Kansas is or not. But it's definitely,
I mean, I I don't know if I'm not one
hundred percent sure on that one. Actually I don't remember.

Speaker 5 (01:14:42):
But maybe they have some games that Arrowhead this year.
I can't remember.

Speaker 8 (01:14:45):
I think I thought, I think they do have a
neutral site game at Arrowhead. I do remember that being
part of the case. Maybe maybe that is I'm not
sure if they have maybe some stadium renovations going on
or something that's changing it. But yeah, it's definitely. Uh,
just I don't trust Daniels as the main factor in
this line here that I'm fading the over of the

(01:15:09):
eight and a half. Just Daniel's back is too much
of an issue for me to trust that.

Speaker 1 (01:15:15):
All right, let's talk about the team that I'm sure
most of our listeners have been waiting for us to
talk about. That's the Colorado Buffalo Deon Sanders year two
in Boulder. He inherited a program that won just one
game in twenty twenty two. Chris, they come out of
the gate hot last year, started three and zero, but
they struggled mightily down the stretch, losing eight of nine.
They didn't improve their win total by three, though that

(01:15:37):
is impressive. They returned sixteen starters. We know the big
names here, Shader, Sanders, Travis Hunter. They hit the portal
pretty hard once again to address which was one of,
if not the worst offensive line in the country. Trudeur
was running for his life on a weekly basis. This
is not an easy schedule here, five and a half.
The total, I don't know, man, I don't know if

(01:15:58):
they're going to get the six wins even with the
improvements that they've made here in year two under Dion.

Speaker 8 (01:16:04):
It is it is definitely, Like you're saying a tough ask.
I I the most the thing I saw I saw
an article on this very recently. The most bet over
tickets so far is Colorado over five and a half.
How much of that, how much of that is smart
money versus how much of that is popularity money. That's

(01:16:25):
that's tough, that's tough to call. I would I would
had wager that a lot of it is just the
popularity of the program under Dion Sanders. But I do
think there's a lot of talent on that team. The
question is there enough there to to get to six wins?
I could see it. I could see it. I think

(01:16:49):
that there's improvement in their wide receiver core a little.
Even they do lose Xavier Weave. Wea were at the top.
He had one hundred targets last year, so that's tough
to replace. But they bring in the Johonte Western from FAU.
They brought in Will Shepherd from Vanderbilt, and they still
have Travis Hunter. And Travis Hunter is the X factor

(01:17:09):
and he's the He's one player again that I think
could loom in the back of the Heisman candidate. If
we're looking for another big twelve player. Yeah, just even
because he's a player that he played. Yes, because Shadir Sanders,
even if he even if he like does has a
great year, if unless Colorado is good enough, he's not

(01:17:31):
going to be able to separate himself from the other
quarterbacks enough to be like the top kit candidate at
the quarterback position. Whereas Hunters doesn't have to be relying
upon win totals to get that Heisman candidacy. He could
he before he was injured last year. I think he
missed four games and still finished with almost eight hundred
receiving yards, so he missed three plus games he did play.

(01:17:55):
I believe in nine total.

Speaker 1 (01:17:58):
Unfortunately, we are running ale on time. I'm so I do.
We got thirty seconds left with you. What is your
favorite future in the Big Twelve?

Speaker 8 (01:18:06):
My favorite future, I mean I did mention it before.
I think it's still going to be Iowa State to
win the Big Twelve. That's what I'm going with. I'm
gonna stick with it. I did made the bet in Vegas,
and That's where I'm gonna go with all.

Speaker 1 (01:18:18):
Right, love that man, Thanks so much for joining us.
We will definitely be talking to you throughout the season.
This is gonna be a fun conference to watch.

Speaker 5 (01:18:25):
Man. Thanks so much for coming.

Speaker 3 (01:18:26):
On, Thanks for having me on.

Speaker 1 (01:18:30):
It's the Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Adam is out tonight.
I'm Dan Watkins filling in as we continue to make
our way around the country and preview each of the
four power conferences in college football. With week zero bearing
down on us, it is just a little over a
week away, and tonight we make our final stop. We
have made it to the SEC, which should once again

(01:18:51):
be the strongest conference in the country. Eight of the
top fourteen and five of the top seven odds teams
to win the national championship call the SEC home. And
who better to preview this conference with than rodal Wires.
John mckechney, our good friend, John. What's up, buddy, Welcome back.

Speaker 7 (01:19:09):
Great to be back with you. And you know, I'm
sure you're ready to talk in college football and you
know flush the Red Sox game from tonight, so I mean,
let's get it going.

Speaker 1 (01:19:18):
Yeah yeah, what they lose was a five to one.
The Socks lost I think to Baltimore. The team is
just absolutely falling apart.

Speaker 7 (01:19:24):
So was this the one night you didn't bet on Gunner.

Speaker 5 (01:19:28):
Yes it was.

Speaker 1 (01:19:30):
I had some time Dare though total bases that hit
for me, But unfortunately Raphael Devers has gone ice cold
and Jared Durand can't hit any more either, So those
it was.

Speaker 5 (01:19:40):
It was a negative night in that game. But I
don't even want to think about that.

Speaker 1 (01:19:43):
I want to think about college football, John, because it's
almost here, and I mean it's a fascinating time in
the SEC right because we're now in the post Nick
Saban world, Like is Kalin de bor gonna do things
in Tuscaloosa like he's done literally everywhere else he's been.
We got Texas and Oklahoma joining in George is trying
to get back to the national championship game when they're
third and four years and cement themselves as the best

(01:20:06):
program in America. And then you got teams like LSU, Missouri,
Tennessee A, and M that can all make some noise.
And then Ole miss who the lane train has just
picked up everything in the transfer portal that he can
get his hands on. A lot of fun here.

Speaker 5 (01:20:20):
So I guess we'll just start with this, right, if you're.

Speaker 1 (01:20:23):
Looking at this conference from AFAR, like, realistically, how many
teams here do you think have a shot to win
win the conference in Atlanta in December.

Speaker 7 (01:20:34):
Boy, it's it's such a deep conference. I think that
the I think the transfer Portal and Nil like it.
You know, it's been a much bandied about topic, but
I think it's really you know, made some of those
kind of second tier programs within a conference like the
SEC have a lot more teeth to them. And and

(01:20:55):
you know, I think Ole Miss really is the flag
bearer of that because for the longest time since I've
been really seriously following poege with ball in, this has
always been a fun program, but you knew they never
really had the goods to get it done. I think
you you could always count on them getting pushed around
by the big boys when it really counted, especially in

(01:21:17):
the trenches. So the additions of Walter Nolan forty percent
of Washington's starting offensive line, an offensive line that they
kept Michael Pennix up right on their way to the
national championship last year. That's important. That they also got
an ed rusher from Florida. I'm not going to attempt
to butcher his name on the air. So you already

(01:21:39):
know that they have an offense that that is like
clockwork Underlane Kiff, and you have a third year starter
in Jackson Dart, You have a loaded wide receiver room,
a great tight end, one of the best, if not
the best, pass catching tight ends in the nation, and
then you also have you know, legitimate trench depth and talent.
So I think that that makes it a program like

(01:22:00):
Ole miss kind of like stand out as this is different.
This is the time in which it's not just going
to be the same Ole. Is it Georgia, is it Alabama?

Speaker 4 (01:22:09):
UH?

Speaker 7 (01:22:10):
Is it LSU going to be representing that the SEC
UH in the College Football Playoff? I think this, you know,
we have the potential to to kind of see the
SEC max out a as like a four bid UH
league with within the College Football Playoff under the new expansion.
And that's not to sell short other programs, let like
Missouri Missouri with with their NIL like that, the state

(01:22:32):
of Missouri itself has actually positioned the program to do
to you know, get guys like Luther Burden to stay
home from Saint Louis as opposed to going to to
those other big schools. And you know you got Brady
cook Back. So I really like missoo I'm excited to
dig into them. And uh, you know, I think that
that other programs have gotten better as well. It feels

(01:22:54):
like there's only a handful of the have nots in
this conference. And for the most part, you know, there
there's you know, eight nine teams that I think at
least have a shot going into the year of making
some new serious noise.

Speaker 1 (01:23:06):
Yeah, it's gonna be interesting to see how this all
plays out. I mean, most these teams have very very
brutal schedules just because they all have to play each other.
We'll get to Florida in a little bit. That is
just it's just flat out rude when you look at
the Florida Gators schedule this year. But let's start off
with the Georgia Bulldogs. Ten and a half is their
win total. John, they haven't lost. I don't need to

(01:23:26):
remind you of this, but I need to remind our listeners.
They haven't lost a regular season game since November of
twenty twenty. Kirby Smart returns fourteen starters from a thirteen
win team a year ago. Carson Beck is back. He's
a Heisman favorite for the first time in a few years. John,
they didn't lose any first round picks from this defense.
There's been several off field incidents in recent months. This schedule, though,

(01:23:48):
this is pretty tough for Georgia. I mean, they open
up with Clemson, they go to Alabama, they go to Texas,
they go to ole Miss. I mean, the best case
for Georgia always is that they just continue being a
frak train, go twelve to zero, and they're in Atlanta
in December playing for the SEC championship. But what's the
most realistic outcome for the Dogs this year?

Speaker 7 (01:24:09):
I think even the most optimistic view is that they
slip up once. I think that the schedule is that tough.
I think it's several matches more difficult than it was
even say in that twenty twenty one season where they,
you know, they beat a ton of ranked teams on
their way to winning that first national championship. This year,
like you mentioned the three key road games, it's worth

(01:24:33):
noting also that you know, the the game against ole
Miss is followed by a home game against Tennessee, and
Tennessee is pretty scary. I think that I'm excited to
talk about them too. I think that you know, that's
an offense that is going to be a problem for
every single team that they line up against. So I mean,

(01:24:54):
it's just the stacking of difficult game on difficult game
on difficult game that that really is going to be
a test for this team. I think George is fortunate
to have it a veteran quarterback back to help navigate that.
And at quarterback we've got much better over the course
of last season. But I have questions about the running
back death. But I think Travis or Trevor ETN is

(01:25:15):
a very good running back, but I don't think he's
of the level of you know, Nick Chubb and Sony
Michelle or Todd Gurley those days. And the receiving corps
lacks star power, at least established star power, and obviously
no rock powers. And I think the defense is there's
some speculation. I think that you know, on paper, if
you look at the recruiting rankings, it all looks rosy,

(01:25:38):
and you know that Kirby s Martin coached them up.
But a lot of it outside of i'd say Malachi
starts the defensive back. It's a lot of projection with
that defense. So they're gonna get tested early with with
Kentucky and then you know, it's kind of go time
from there with no real weeks to kind of catch
to the breath. So it's going to be a gauntlet
for this Georgia team, and I do want they if

(01:26:00):
they slip up more than once along the way.

Speaker 1 (01:26:02):
Yeah, that's why I'm looking at like the over with Georgia.
It's it's minus one thirty, pretty juiced, even even money.
I mean, I think if you're going to play the dogs,
you might as well just go all in on them
right to just to win, to win the national championship.

Speaker 5 (01:26:15):
In the SEC, I think that.

Speaker 7 (01:26:18):
It's a fair way to look at it. Again, Like
you said, the odds aren't aren't terrible either way, and
you know, it's a it's a brutal schedule, but I
think once we get to playoff time, and you could
almost argue that what they face in the regular season,
especially with those toughest games in the regular season, could
be harder than what they see in the playoff all

(01:26:39):
the way up until you know, the semi final or
the National Championship, it's going to be that that type
of year. Really, outside of the SEC, the only two
teams that I see working as teams that could beat
it a program like Georgia, are Ohio State and Oregon.

Speaker 1 (01:26:54):
It's going to be very interesting to see if there's
an eleven or ten multiple of those kind of team
from the SEC that aren't the conference champ and how
they get seated in the playoffs and just the path there.
I mean, we always talk in March during college basketball
that you know the path and how the road plays
out for you, you can determine much much more who's going

(01:27:15):
to win win the national championship, and that could become
a thing here in college football. So let's move to
our next team, Texas ten and a half their win
total as well, it's plus money to the over. They're
the new kids on the block. They enter the SEC
fresh off of a playoff. Berth Quin yours He returns
along with fourteen other starters from last season, but they
lost their two run stuffers in Tovandre Sweat and Byron Murphy.

(01:27:39):
On the defensive side. They also lost their top four
pass catchers from a year ago, and the projected starting
running back is now out for the season.

Speaker 5 (01:27:46):
CJ.

Speaker 1 (01:27:46):
Baxter just got hurt a little over a week ago,
but john for an SEC schedule, this is not brutal
by any means, you got a non conference game at Michigan,
you got Georgia at home, you got the Red River
shootout game, of course, and then at Texas A and
m those are the other notables here. I mean, can
can Texas get to eleven wins in their first year
in the SEC?

Speaker 7 (01:28:06):
I think it's right there. I think that this schedule
is the really important detail in especially like the Michigan game,
like it theoretically that that's a tough game, but they
catch them early, and I think that that stig with
so much to renegotiate on Michigan's then obviously the Big
House is going to be a tough spot to play,
but I think yours and the guys will be ready.
I think that they're more geared up to the start

(01:28:27):
past than Michigan is, So I do like them in
that game. And yet, like you said, the conference schedule
that they definitely got some beginner's luck as far as
what they have to face in conference. And you know, yours,
being the third year returning quarterback, I don't think that
he is has shown to be as good as maybe

(01:28:50):
the recruiting services said he was coming out of high score.
He's the second rated quarterback of all time behind Vince
Young in the internet recruiting era. I don't think White
seen that, and I think it is impactful that they
lose guys like Adie Mitchell, Xavier Worthy, Jatavian Sanders, the
list goes on it. It definitely doesn't help that that
CJ Backs for the running back is out for the year,

(01:29:11):
and they also lost some depth. I think they're number
three running back towards Achilles in practice unfortunately earlier this
week as well, So a lot is going to be
riding on Jayden Blue's shoulders to carry the load in
that backfield. So if they can kind of work their
way around it, I think they should be fine. And
I think the receiving corps like it. You know, we

(01:29:31):
said it for years with Alabama, like they would lose
Jerry Judy or they lose Calvin Ridley and they just
bring up the next guy. I think that you could
say on paper that this is the receiving corps that's
ready to kind of reload on the fly. It definitely
helps that they have a veteran quarterback, so I think
they're going to be able to navigate or to navigate it.
But m dubious on a yours as a heisman bed

(01:29:54):
in b Texas winning at all. But I think that
they will be representing the s SEE in the College
Fotball playoff as well.

Speaker 1 (01:30:01):
So the Klin de Bor era begins in Tuscaloosa. He
inherits a team that was left in really good shape.
Thirteen starters return, including Jalen Milroe, who's going to be
a lot of fun to watch into Boor's offense. John
the win total here for the Crimson Tide nine and
a half, even money to the over the schedule. How
it sets up at Wisconsin's going to be intriguing. I'm
just fascinated to see that on my television. Scream Alabama

(01:30:24):
at Wisconsin. That's gonna be fun. You get Georgia at home,
you have road games at Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma. But
can Kalyn de Bor just pick right up where Saban
left off and get this team in the playoffs once again?

Speaker 7 (01:30:37):
I'm skeptical, and I think it's because of Jalen Milroe.
I think that Milroe doesn't seem like a natural fit
for the de Bor offense. We've seen the Debor offense
for years now. Whether it's it at Presno or at
Washington and for as good of a college quarterback as
Milroe is, Like if de Bor doesn't kind of like
alter his scheme to fit Milroe's strengths, I think we

(01:30:59):
could see growing pains here. And you know, dare I say,
you know what has been you know, incomprehensible or unimaginable
over the last fifteen years plus, like an Alabama like
real slip up game. I could see that because I
just don't think that uh Milroe has like you don't
want to get into a spot where where Milroe is
throwing at forty forty five times or having to throw

(01:31:21):
to get you back into a game. And so I'm
a little bit worried about this Alabama team in year
one or under the Bore. I think that in the end,
you know, this is a program that has such strong
bones like it, you know, saving left it in such
a good spot to where I have trouble seeing the
boor truly failing. But I could see year one being
a little bit tricky for them. So I'm I'm off

(01:31:43):
of Alabama as far as being Rosie, uh with with
my with my betting interests. Like you said, the schedule
is all right. I think that that game against Missouri
in late October is going to be huge. That one
is in Tuscaloosa, so I think we're going to know
a lot about those two teams after that game. But
again to your point, Bammers in Madison, as someone that

(01:32:06):
used to live in Madison for a long time, that's
going to be very funny to see the mixing of
those two. And I hope those bars are fully stocked already.
But color meet skeptical on DAMA in year one under
kalender board.

Speaker 1 (01:32:19):
All right, we're gonna step aside here when we come back.
I'm going to tell John what I'm thinking is going
to be my official show future here. There is one
that I absolutely love. It's the next team we're going
to talk about. I think he might feel the same
way here, So stick around.

Speaker 5 (01:32:31):
We'll be right back.

Speaker 1 (01:32:33):
It's The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Adam is out on
Dan Watkins filling in for this week as we continue
our college football Power Conference previews. We're talking about the
SEC tonight. John mckeckney of rodowire dot Com is here
with us. John, I absolutely love all missed this year.
You were talking about it the last segment when you
first came on, Lane Kiffin comes in fresh off an

(01:32:54):
eleven win season. He brings back twenty starters from last year.
If you're including transfer talent, that's start and elsewhere the
revs they've loaded up for this season. This schedule sets
up really nicely. They get both Georgia and Oklahoma at home.
Their toughest road game is LSU Jackson Dart back in
the fold for a third year under Lane in that offense,
I really really like the over here at nine and

(01:33:16):
a half. It's not even terribly juicy at a minus
one fifteen number right now. And I also think if
you're in a state where your sportsbook offers to make
the SEC championship game market, I'd be all over all
miss here.

Speaker 7 (01:33:33):
I can't disagree with any of it. I know that
may not be a great radio, but what we'll expound
on it. I mean, the transfer class that they brought
in is phenomenal. Like I said, Walter Nolan is he
has a totally unlocked and yet at the college level,
but he has what it takes to be a difference maker.
Can I sell you on two other guys just on
name value? Alone, they got a guy named Diego Pounds,

(01:33:55):
an offensive lineman named Diego Pounds. How good is that
safety named fifth? Incredible? They also got a safety out
of South Alabama, Yam Banks. That's good, That's real good.
They also got a guy named Juice Wells out of
South Carolina. So I mean, it's just name value alone.
They're cooking. But no, seriously beyond that. You know, again,

(01:34:18):
Lane Kiffin, this is an offense that is going to
be challenging for thirty thirty five I'm sorry, thirty five
to forty points pretty much weekend week out. The schedule
is not that bad, and again they get their toughest
games at home. Arguably, going to Death Valley is going
to be a great game. I'm very much looking forward
to that one. I do wonder if fellas who kind

(01:34:38):
of has some revenge on their mind the way last
year's game went. But you know, regardless that this is
a team that I'm I'm in on with with both feet.
When I passed through Beautiful Logan Airport earlier this summer,
I fired away on pretty much every old miss thing
that I could think of. From National Championship at fifteen
to one to Jackson Dark for the Heisman sixteen to one.

(01:35:01):
I think that, you know, there's just so much to
like about this ole Miss team. It almost scares me.

Speaker 5 (01:35:05):
It's it is.

Speaker 1 (01:35:07):
It's so funny just to think that ole Miss could
be could potentially like run the table through the SEC
this year. It really does set up that way with
his schedule. I'm debating a plus seven hundred here for
them to win the SEC, but I'm act I I
have a few weeks to think about that before the
season officially gets going. Let's talk about LSU, who you
just mentioned. They do go to or they host the

(01:35:27):
Old Miss Rebels. At one point this season nine and
a half. It's their win total, John, It's third year
in Baton Rouge for Brian Kelly. He returns twelve starters
from a ten win team last year, but he does
lose Jayden Daniels Maliku neighbors Brian Thomas Junior. The defense
was horrible last year, and that might be understating it.
They gave up thirty plus and seven games. They completely
blew out the entire defensive staff. They should be better defensively, John,

(01:35:51):
but how much? And also on the other side, does
this offense see a big drop off with all those
guys that left for the NFL. The schedule sets up
decently for them. They avoid Texas and Georgia, they have
most of their big games at home this year. But
I don't know, man, I'm looking at it. Ten wins
feels like a bit of a stretch.

Speaker 7 (01:36:08):
It might be, but I still like this LSU team
a lot. So, I mean, as per usual, you know,
with the win totals that you can really make an
argument for either side. But in LSU's case, the defense,
like you said, it can't be any worse. I love
the defensive coordinator higher bringing in the guy from Miszoo
who really made that a very, very tough defense a
year ago. So that's going to be something to watch

(01:36:30):
out for.

Speaker 3 (01:36:31):
You know.

Speaker 7 (01:36:31):
On the flip side, when it comes to Miszoo, is
there a drop off on that defense. I think the offense,
it might be a little bit under sold. I think that,
you know, the defense kind of fueled in a way.
Jayden Daniels just like having to be Superman every single week.
I don't think that the new starter, Garrett Nutsmeyer, is
capable of those things, at least in the run game.

(01:36:52):
But boy, this is a little anecdote, but from the
SEC Championship game in twenty twenty two, Jayden Daniels got
hurt in that game, Garrett Nusmeyer comes in Georgia, did
have a big lead, so probably playing a little bit
of pre event, but Nuss shredded them. And Nuss really
kind of showed that this gunslinger mentality really no fear

(01:37:13):
putting the ball in the air, and he definitely has
a bit of a cannon up an arm. So obviously
they lose Brian Thomas, that they lose the league neighbors,
that's not nothing. But let's use kind of one of
those programs where you where you do feel confidence that
they're going to be able to reload, restock, that receive
room calling Lacy I think is impressive. And the handful
of other guys that I think are you know, kind

(01:37:33):
of next up there in VAT and Rouge. So don't
write them off just because Jayden Daniels is gone. I
think Nuss has been there for a long time. He
was like a high four or low five star in
his own right. It's you know, I think it almost
any other program, you know, he would have been starting
by now. But you know, Kelly comes in wants to
kind of get his own guy, and that's why Jade

(01:37:55):
and Daniels started the last two years. But Nuss is
nothing to mess with. And you know, I'm kind of
all aboard. I actually have a Garrett Meusmeyer Heisman ticket.
And wow, you know, in a year in which I
think that there are flaws in the kind of projected
top quarterbacks to go in the draft, whether it's Carson
Beck or quin yours, if nuts shows out kind of

(01:38:19):
like I'm expecting as far as pocket passer prospects, you.

Speaker 5 (01:38:22):
Might end up being QV one interesting.

Speaker 1 (01:38:25):
Okay, So we got another nine and a half win
team here, John, We got to move a little quicker
so we can get all these teams. The Missouri Tigers
nine and a half their win total. Eli Drinklewitz brings
back fourteen starters, including nine on offense. I love Luther
Burden and when you look at the schedule, they might
be favored in ten games meaning of chalk holds they
hit the over here, that's right, you.

Speaker 7 (01:38:46):
Know, So Burton Blitnikoff favorite. I think that if you
have a couple spare quarters hanging around in your couch
might not be the worst thing to put them on
Luther Burton for Heisman. I think that he could have
the Devonte Smith esque season. Brady Cook, I think is
a very capable quarterback. You do worry about the defense,
but them losing the defensive coordinator and most of the

(01:39:08):
losses from the starters being on that side of the ball.
But the safety, I'm sorry, the schedule does do them
some favors here. So this is a Missouri team that
absolutely could challenge for the playoff.

Speaker 1 (01:39:18):
And that's plus one thirty five to the over. By
the way, if you think that the Tigers make it
to ten wins, double digit wins is what I was
trying to say there. Oklahoma seven and a half is
their win total. It's the third year for Brent Venables
and Norman. He's improved each season that he's been here.
Johnny returns fifteen starters too. But this is one of
the toughest schedules in the conference, with just three sec

(01:39:39):
home games here, and the back half of this schedule
is just absolutely brutal.

Speaker 7 (01:39:45):
Maybe I'll learn my lesson one day, but basically until
I see it, I'm going to be a bit of
a Venables doubter. I think he's exceeded my expectations in
both years thus far, and yet I remain a little
bit dubious. And I think the step up in competition
this year is going to be a lot for this
Oklahoma team, especially with a new quarterback and Jackson Arnold

(01:40:05):
taking over. So I think for me, Oklahoma is a
team that they could ultimately disappoint this season.

Speaker 1 (01:40:11):
All right, this is what I've been rehearsing for all day.
We're going to talk about Tennessee their new quarterback. Here
we go, Nico Ia Malayeva. Is that correct?

Speaker 7 (01:40:21):
Yama liava?

Speaker 1 (01:40:23):
Yama liava. Okay, So it's like with a why instead
of an eye there at the beginning.

Speaker 7 (01:40:29):
That's what I've been going with.

Speaker 5 (01:40:30):
All right, all right, very good. I've heard it like
like eight different ways between every test too.

Speaker 1 (01:40:36):
It's unbelievable. We'll just go Nico, I I think that's
what we'll go there. So Nico's the quarterback for the
Balls this year. They have their most hyped quarterback recruit
since Peyton Manning under center. With him, Josh Hipel returns
eleven starters from last year's nine win team schedules pretty decent.
They avoid Texas, LSU and Old Miss. They get Alabama
at home. They do have to go to Georgia and
to Oklahoma. But eight and a half wins John, It's

(01:40:58):
heavily juiced to the over here as the books are
expecting the balls to get to nine wins.

Speaker 7 (01:41:04):
Right, you almost want to look for an alternate wind
total to, you know, see if you can take the
over nine and a half instead of that and get
some better odds, because I think Nico is absolutely the
real deal that they've done well to kind of restock
that that receiver room bringing in Chris Brazell from Tulane.
They already have Squirrel White, which is just the perfect

(01:41:24):
name for a Tennessee wide receiver. You know, the backfield
a little bit up for discussion there, but the hypel
offense it kind of runs itself. And now we have
a guy to where you almost feel like, is Nico's
floor kind of what Hendon Hooker's twenty twenty two season
looked like. I mean, it could be that spectacular from

(01:41:45):
him because the national talent that he has is pretty remarkable.
I mean, I think if not for the name value
on arch Manning being the number one overall recruit in
last year's cycle, I think Nico probably deserved that just
a little bit more, and I think he's going to
show that this year. So the balls are pretty serious.
I know last year was a bit of a weird

(01:42:05):
kind of limbo passing of the torch between Hen and
Hooker and Nico with Joe Milton there in the middle.
But you know, I think this is a year in
which the balls need to be taken very, very seriously.

Speaker 1 (01:42:17):
All Right, I'm gonna ask you about Texas A and
M here, and then we'll get to any dark horses
to win the conference. Texas A and M can very
well be in a dark horse here. Eight and a
half's their win total. Jimbo Fisher long gone, Mike Elko
is in eighteen returning starters. This could be the surprise
team that makes a run in Atlanta this year. John
Elko gets a talented roster for the first time in
his life, and he's already always gotten the most out

(01:42:39):
of his teams. At Duke, they avoid Bama, Georgia and Ole,
miss They get Notre Dame LSU Missouri and Texas all
at home. Nine wins could very much be in the
picture here.

Speaker 7 (01:42:49):
The ingredients are there, But you know, similar to Oklahoma.
I'll believe it when I see it. I'm just people
love Connor Wigman. I'm not sure why. I think that
they're too up on recruiting rankings when it comes to him,
and I think that, you know, they did have a
bit of an exodus in the transfer world. They might
not have all been starters, but a couple of them

(01:43:10):
were important starters, like Evan Stewart who's now at Oregon.
The schedule definitely helps, but I think that, you know,
for example, I think that I like Missouri's chances that
this year to make a run more than I do
the Aggies. I think that you're asking a lot of
a guy like Elco, you know, who is a very
you know, solid coach and deserved that job and everything.

(01:43:32):
You're asking a lot of him to turn this team
in this culture around, I think, maybe more importantly in
just a matter of months. So I think I'm off
the optimism for Aggie Land.

Speaker 2 (01:43:42):
At least this year.

Speaker 1 (01:43:43):
Well, it could be really tough when they get absolutely
steamrolled by Notre Dame on Week one. I mean, let's right,
let's be honest, all right, John, we got about thirty
seconds left with you. Who's winning this conference here and
is the eventual national championship coming from the SEC.

Speaker 7 (01:44:00):
The second one first that it will be an SEC
team this year. I'm riding with you, Dan, Let's go
ReBs ole Miss. I will actually be in the house
for the ole Miss Georgia game in November, and I
am nervous as hell, but I think it will be
good for my bank account.

Speaker 1 (01:44:14):
All right, very good, All right, John mccachnie, thanks so much, buddy.

Speaker 5 (01:44:17):
We'll talk soon.

Speaker 2 (01:44:19):
You know it. Appreciate it.

Speaker 3 (01:44:21):
Cheers.

Speaker 1 (01:44:22):
It's The Gambler with Adam Kaufmann, Hour two on this Thursday.
Adam is out on Dan Watkins filling in. Adam's been
out all week and Brian, I just could not let
a week without Adam go by without talking to our
next guest, because I'm pretty sure he thinks Adam doesn't
work like at all. He might just pay to have
his name on the show. Basically our next guest. He's

(01:44:43):
Will Hill. He's from vs in Bare Bets podcast, Fox
Sports Gold Boys. He's the host of the Should Have
Bet More podcast? Will, what's up?

Speaker 3 (01:44:51):
Man?

Speaker 5 (01:44:51):
We're so close to football, you know we are.

Speaker 3 (01:44:55):
You're going to make the jokes about Adam and steal
my plunder. I had all these jokes like that. I'm sorry,
the jokes like themselves, I mean, the jokes like themselves.
I hope he's relaxing. I hope he's nice and comfortable.
I'm sure the checks are still clearing, but uh yeah,
we miss out for sure.

Speaker 1 (01:45:09):
Hey he's you know what, he's actually sent us in
a couple of winners from vacation this week, Brian, is
he three and zero?

Speaker 3 (01:45:15):
I believe so.

Speaker 1 (01:45:15):
Yeah, he's undefeated on vacation, so you know he's having
a really nice, really.

Speaker 3 (01:45:19):
Nice time to handicap.

Speaker 1 (01:45:21):
Sure, yeah, exactly. So speaking of handicapping, we've been talking
about college football all week long, getting ready for the
season Week zero, a little over a week away, diving
through all of the power conferences. We just did the SEC,
but we really haven't talked the national championship market yet.
And I wanted to talk to you about this because well,

(01:45:41):
I went back through, you know, the list of recent
college football champions through the playoff era, and now with
the playoff expanding to twelve teams, I'm sure the casual
betters out there are thinking, oh, okay, more teams mean
more team You know, more, more teams getting in more
teams should have a shot theoretically at winning the chanceampionship.
But when you look at historically in the odds market,

(01:46:03):
it's really towards the top that these teams that are
the favorites going into the season end up one of
them ends up hoisting the trophy at the end. So
how how have you handicapped here looking ahead of the
season when it comes to the national Championship market.

Speaker 3 (01:46:19):
Yeah, you nailed it. It's a chalk sport.

Speaker 9 (01:46:21):
I think it'll continue to be a chalk sport. I mean,
you could for all the teams and you are. You
can go four, eight, twelve, sixteen, twenty, it doesn't matter.
I mean, Georgia is still gonna You're still gonna have
to be Georgia, whether you have to bet them in
a round of four or twelve. And I mean, I
guess you can say theoretically not the aagely it gives
them more of a chance to lose. Sure, but I
mean it's gonna be tough. It's just it's a sport
without a lot of oppose. That's the hous and the

(01:46:43):
have nots. There's a bigger gap and you can even
make the case. It makes them stronger. It helps the
better teams because a team like Georgia, you know, just
using them an example, I think most people think Demro
has stakes the best team.

Speaker 3 (01:46:56):
That team in the four team playoffs.

Speaker 9 (01:46:59):
Okay, they had fewer chances to lose in the playoffs,
but they were they had a chance to miss it.
Now those teams are not going to miss the Georgia
is the Ohio State. As long as they lose two
or three games, those teams are not going to miss
the playoffs.

Speaker 8 (01:47:13):
Where last year, I.

Speaker 9 (01:47:14):
Mean, look, they lost one game in two years and
all of a sudden they're out. They're going to be
in now, and once they're in, you're gonna have to
beat them. So it's it's more games, it's more games
to talk about, it's more markets. In terms of like
who's to make the playoffs.

Speaker 3 (01:47:25):
I'm kind of I'm into it. I think it'll be.

Speaker 9 (01:47:27):
Fun and we'll devalue some of the biggest games in
the regular season. You know, the Ohio State Michigan when
they're both really good. There's not going to be that
sense of urgency where it's like an elimination game where
you know what you might be playing the next week,
you might be playing for a third time in the playoffs.

Speaker 3 (01:47:39):
So I want to see how it plays out.

Speaker 9 (01:47:42):
But I don't think it's going to change the fact
that this is a chalk sport as far as like odds,
if there's a sleeper, and this is not a sleeper,
but if there was anybody outside of the top two. Look,
most most people are going to pick either Georgia or
Ohio State. I like Oregon. I think, you know, not
that it's yeah, not that it's now or never for
dam Landing, but he is. He does have this great reputation.

(01:48:03):
Like Obama wanted to hire him. All these teams want
to hire them. You know, he's got to get over
the gloss. Twice to Washington last year. He lost some
big games. I think they are really lowered. I think
Gabriel will give them more of a downfield passing attack.
The quarterback from Oklahoma that transferred in more of a
downfield passing attack the Knicks gave him. I think they'll
be you know, just get everywhere, really good receivers, Jordan.

Speaker 3 (01:48:24):
James, the hell of a running back.

Speaker 9 (01:48:26):
They get Ohio State in their building, which is really
the mostly anticipated game that October twelfth game, that'll be
a fun weekend. Is about playoff baseball by then, you
know NFL. There's a lot of good games. I think
on that day, I think all misplay Dallas to you
that day there's some really fun matchups. So again like
seven to one, eighth to one, I think they will
be in the college football championship game or semifinal in

(01:48:50):
the mix. I think if anybody can upset the Georgia
Ohio state dominant in that team, Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:48:56):
I agree with you, and I think it for another
reason too, is that I think a lot of these
teams in the Big Ten are gonna be very surprised
at how physical this Oregon team is. This This isn't
like your older brothers, uh, Marcus Mariota, Dennis Dixon, Chip
Kelly Oregon team. This team Dan Lanning has literally taken
a like a Southeast program and put them in the
Pacific Northwest.

Speaker 9 (01:49:18):
Yeah, totally agree, totally agree. And they're look, they're gonna
be in the playoffs. I mean, they're one of these
teams gonna have It's a lot's gonna have to go
wrong for them not to make the playoffs. And uh yeah,
I totally agree with you. I just, uh, you're gonna
hear people try to make a case for longer shots
to uh to win it all, maybe like an old
miss or something, if you really are high on anything

(01:49:39):
they can get to a title game.

Speaker 3 (01:49:40):
I just I don't know.

Speaker 9 (01:49:41):
College football, like you mentioned, it's just not that sport
where you get these uh you know, these teams out
of nowhere.

Speaker 3 (01:49:47):
Don't get the diving backs and the Rangers in the
World Series.

Speaker 9 (01:49:50):
You don't get uh, you know, one of these football
NFL sleepers to uh, you know, to get hot and
make a run. It's just it's it's not the nature
of the sport, you know. I don't think that's going
to change here with these extra teams.

Speaker 1 (01:50:02):
I think another interesting way, once we get in this
season and once we find out the playoff picture to
look at it is who the five.

Speaker 5 (01:50:08):
Seeds gonna be.

Speaker 1 (01:50:09):
That could be Sat Georgia slips up and they lose
it losing either like the SEC Championship game, or they
don't make the SEC Championship game and they somehow get
that five seed and then they get either the winner
of the Big twelve or maybe a G five team
if they somehow can get that four seed because of
the automatic bid, and that just can allow whoever that
five seed is to just walk right through into like

(01:50:30):
the semi finals.

Speaker 9 (01:50:32):
Yeah, and I think the books are going to probably
have a few slip ups in terms of how to price.
You know, they're gonna keep these markets up odds to
make the playoffs. Yes, No, they've never done it before,
and that leads me to think they might make some
mistakes along the way where a team loses a big
game and they either overreact, underreacting tard when you're pricing
the stuff for the first time to make perfect line
and everything. That'll be an interesting thing to keep an

(01:50:54):
eye on. Two, especially if you have multiple books to
shop around. And I'm sure you're going to catch the
books hang in some off numbers on some of this stuff.

Speaker 1 (01:51:01):
Yeah, so you mentioned to make the playoff there, we
know that one of these G five teams is going
to get in.

Speaker 5 (01:51:06):
They have to. It's in the rules.

Speaker 1 (01:51:08):
A lot of value here for this. Will you got
Liberty Boise State both at a plus four hundred. Have
you dug into this market at all yet or are
you waiting to see a little bit how this plays out?

Speaker 5 (01:51:16):
As we get into the season.

Speaker 3 (01:51:19):
I like Texas State. I like DJ King. I think
he's a tremendous coach.

Speaker 9 (01:51:23):
I think they put everybody un noticed last year. They
beat Baylor right away, scored a million points to get
a lot of their swing games, a lot of their tough.

Speaker 3 (01:51:29):
Games at home.

Speaker 9 (01:51:31):
I don't think they're keeping that coach for very long
because he's tremendous. Kind of a journeyman quarterback, whether it
was Jets and Giants, I think he was in their camps,
never really never actually played for.

Speaker 3 (01:51:40):
Them, bounced around different leagues.

Speaker 9 (01:51:42):
He's, you know, he got by with intelligence and a
lot of experience playing in the position. He can coach offense.
I think he's hit it for a big time job.
And I think that's a fun one. And market's kind
of come around to that. And they are I think
twelfth one in some spots, fifteen to one, and I
think they are. They are dark horse literally be interesting too,
because I wonder the fact that they were just they

(01:52:05):
played such a soft schedule last year. In this year,
is there a stake Is there a bias against them
because they got destroyed by Oregon? Where these committee members
look at them and say they're a little bit who
gazy and they're not for real. We gave them a
spotlight last year against Oregon. Remember the narrative was a
lot of people made the case a Oregon just came
out that lost to Washington. They're going to be a

(01:52:27):
letdown spot. They're not gonna be up for this game.
They're not going to play their guys.

Speaker 3 (01:52:29):
It didn't matter.

Speaker 9 (01:52:30):
Oregon still absolutely buried them. I wonder if that lingers
here in terms of the perception of Liberty.

Speaker 4 (01:52:35):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:52:35):
I think the way to bet Liberty will would be
to go to the to finish the regular season undefeated market.
You can still get that at plus two to fifty
right now, they are the shortest odds definite to be
undefeated this season.

Speaker 3 (01:52:47):
I'll see fifty.

Speaker 9 (01:52:48):
I don't look at the schedule again, but top of
my head, that's a really soft schedule that actually sounds
like an appealing number.

Speaker 3 (01:52:54):
Now.

Speaker 9 (01:52:54):
I always know, hey, one game, anything can happen, upsets happened.

Speaker 3 (01:52:58):
I understand all that. But the plus two fifth see
that might actually do what to play.

Speaker 1 (01:53:02):
So the only big school that we haven't hit yet
is Notre Dame, and I wanted to hit this with
you just because I've seen a lot of people pouring
money into the under.

Speaker 5 (01:53:09):
This week.

Speaker 1 (01:53:10):
The Irish is win total is ten and a half.
It's dropped to ten on DraftKings. Right now, Fandel still
has it up at ten and a half. It's minus
one seventy six to the under.

Speaker 5 (01:53:19):
The Irish.

Speaker 1 (01:53:20):
They have three swing games. Will I'm looking at here
that's gonna determine this bet. You got at Texas A
and M to open up the season, Florida State at
home in November, and then at USC to close things out.
The Irish they had questions coming into the season with
their offensive line. They lost both tackles to the NFL
Joe All, Blake Blake Fisher, and then they're projected starting
left tackle who's a sophomore just went down for down.

(01:53:42):
They lost him for the season to an injury. How
do you make How do you look at Notre Dame
this year or are you staying away?

Speaker 3 (01:53:50):
It will be under it for me just.

Speaker 9 (01:53:52):
Because of what you mentioned with the offensive line injury,
and to me, it starts right away with textatum, I
don't think they're gonna win in college station college texting. Um,
I think good pass us a good front Boar and
not today just never seems to win these games where
they play somebody their own size or even a little
bit better than they just they kind of beat up
on the lesser teams and they have to step up
in competition they can't. So I just I look at

(01:54:13):
it like nine wins is more likely than eleven wins
because if I think they're losing an A and M,
which I do, then I mean you have to run
the table the rest away, and like you mentioned Florist State, USC,
even Louisville, like running the table from that point on
is gonna be difficult. So I think a lot of
it comes down to what do you think they do
against A and M. And I just think I think
nine wins is more likely than eleven. Ten is probably

(01:54:36):
the right number. They probably land on ten, but I
just think nine is certainly in the cards, and that'll
be there'll be an interesting conversation too, because that'd be
a soft ten and two team.

Speaker 3 (01:54:47):
But they are Notre Dame.

Speaker 9 (01:54:47):
They do have the brand and depending on what happens
to the rest of the country, ten and two Notre
Dame will so it would be a viable candidate to
get in.

Speaker 1 (01:54:54):
It's gonna be a lot of fun to watch, Will Hill.
You can find them all over the place, but most
importantly on his Twitter page, not the Will Hill. Will
thanks so much for joining us.

Speaker 3 (01:55:02):
Man.

Speaker 5 (01:55:02):
We'll talk soon, all right.

Speaker 3 (01:55:04):
Appreciate it, man, thanks for having me

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