AFC North Betting Preview

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
We're back here on The Gambler with Adam Kauffman. If
you miss any of this show, any show, quite frankly,
as we do these weeks and months long team by team,
city by city NFL previews, I would encourage, I mean,
don't go back and check out a week later the
baseball conversation. Necessarily, but definitely you want to know what's
going on with a particular football team, easy enough to

(00:23):
find out when we discussed it and with whom we
discussed it. On the podcast feed. Check out the pod
search that full name The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Wherever
you get your podcasts, learn get a lot of great information,
Maybe play some futures bets, or at least listen to
the futures bets that we are giving you and hopefully,
come the end of the season, or quite frankly, during
the course of the season, we can profit together. We've

(00:46):
given you a number of futures already. But now we
begin the conversation around the AFC North and it is
certainly one of the most interesting teams, the Baltimore Ravens.
With that, we turn to a friend of the show
Bowl Smoka covers the Ravens for press Box. Get him
on Twitter at b Smoka That is b S M

(01:07):
O l k A. Bow. Welcome back.

Speaker 2 (01:11):
Hi, good to talk to you.

Speaker 1 (01:13):
So Dan, I'm sure you remember when we were doing
this about this time last year with Bow. He could
not have sung the praises of Zay Flowers enough and
that was music to our ears as a you know,
Boston college kid. But I'd say he lived up to
the praise. Hell of a rookie season there for the Ravens.

Speaker 2 (01:31):
Yes, he really did. He was I said it then.
I mean he turned out to be everything they had
hoped for. And again we've talked about in the past,
this team has had kind of a tortured history at
drafting wide receivers. But you just sens right away Flowers
to fit in. He got along with Jackson, they not
getting along. The chemistry was there right away. He tends

(01:55):
to get open in the areas of the field where
Jackson is best throwing, and he's just so elusive and
when Flowers catches the ball, he just he jukes, he jives,
and he gets a lot of yards after the catch.
That way, I will say Flowers is a guy that
right now has come back into this camp feeling like
he's on a mission, because I think he took this
championship game loss a little bit personally against Kansas City

(02:18):
because he had the fumble near the goal line and
that ended the way none of this team expected it
to end. So they're back here a little bit a
little bit hurting after that game, and Flowers specifically had
that big fumble. But he was terrific and he looks
to be in great shape again. He's highly popular in
this town with how he played last year. So yeah,

(02:40):
I mean with this passing game, he's going to be
a big part of it.

Speaker 3 (02:44):
Well we might as well just start right off with
Zay Flowers, guys, and let's bring up his props for you.

Speaker 4 (02:48):
Bo.

Speaker 3 (02:49):
Nine hundred point five is his over under for receiving
yards this year. He finished with eight fifty eight a
year ago in sixteen games. I believe he was one
of the starters that set out the final game of
the seas in Five and a half is his over
under for touchdowns, finished with five a year ago. I mean,
does he just keep building on an awesome rookie campaign?
Can he threaten to be a one thousand yard receiver

(03:11):
this year.

Speaker 2 (03:12):
I think he can. I mean, those numbers are interesting
prop numbers. I think they are that they're probably right
on the number, which is why they are where they are.
But yeah, I think he could be a thousand yard receiver.
I think back to Marquis Brown when he had his
second year. I believe it was he broke up to
he got over the one thousand yard mark, which doesn't
hasn't happened a whole lot of times with Ravens drafted receivers.

(03:34):
Quite honestly, it's only obviously happened a couple of times.
One was Tory Smith and then Marquise Brown. It's been
just they just haven't done it with receiver position. Now
they think where Shot Bateman's going to put up numbers
this year, we'll see Bateman's been the guy that they're
still waiting to kind of have that breakout. They don't
have Odell Beckham this year anymore. Mark Andrews should be

(03:56):
healthy the whole year, so that would conceivably cut into
Flowers as numbers. We don't know what the running game
is going to look like with Derrick Henry in town now,
but the when they passed the ball, Flowers is going
to be involved, and I would I would think he's gonna.
If I had to bet, I think I might take
that over because I just think he's gonna be a
big part of what they do well.

Speaker 1 (04:17):
He's the guy catching the ball, have with the one
throwing at Lamar Jackson, who as we know, stayed healthy
last year, unlike many of his counterparts in the division,
Joe Burrow, Deshaun Watson, Kenny Picktt, these guys all mist
pretty considerable time. Jackson, you know, last year goes for
almost thirty seven hundred yards in the air, by far,
a career high, also only the second time in his

(04:38):
career that he played in sixteen games, hadn't done so
since his rookie year. When I look at the numbers
this year projected thirty two fifty to thirty three fifty,
depending on where you place the bet, I realized that,
you know, he went over that rather considerably last year.
But the question for me is bo is is last

(05:00):
year an outlier in that sense, whether because of you know,
you just look at him and say he's an injury risk,
or you look at the group that he's dealing with,
you don't know how much he is going to run
how much. Obviously, Derek Henry, as you alluded to, is
going to be a part of this offense. Mark Andrews
returns from his injury, missed a lot of time last year.
Isaiah likely looks to be a good talented tight end.

(05:22):
You have Zay Flowers as we talked about. You have
Nelson Agalore, but it's you know, tes Walker, the fourth
round receiver who's a maybe even a better talent. There's
a lot of upside potential there, but I don't know
it just it feels like a big number for Lamar
in the air. I'm much more interested in his rushing props,

(05:42):
which we can give you, But what do you expect
from his passing game?

Speaker 2 (05:46):
Yeah, I think the passing game last year. I mean,
it just felt like when they brought Todd Munkin into
the offensive coordinator last year, they were going to be
more committed to passing the ball than they were with
Greg Roman. And they were, and both Bunkin and Jackson
basically said so, and they just feel that fell It
looked like they were just more committed to not being

(06:09):
so run heavy and not having Jackson run as often
and then work the ball through the air and if
Jackson stayed healthy, then you could put up the yardage
numbers that, as you said, were the biggest of his career.
I kind of think it's going to go that way again.
I do think obviously Derek Henry in the backfield is
going to change things somewhat. I'm very curious to see

(06:31):
what kind of workload they give him. You know, I
don't see him being a twenty five carry a game guy.
I just think he's going to be. I think he'll
be the work course of that running game. But I
still think and Jackson will run too, because this is
what he does better than any running any quarterback ever.
You can't take his running game out of the offense.

(06:52):
You'd be foolish too, because it's such a weapon. But
I still think they're going to try to establish the
air game with Jackson and with Flowers and Bateman and Aguilar,
Andrews and likely all those guys you mentioned. So I
think is I suspect his passing numbers, if he stays healthy,
are going to be somewhere in the neighborhood of what
they were last year.

Speaker 3 (07:12):
So I just saw the headline today bo that Lamar
left practice after an hour. Is that something to monitor
or was he just not feeling well.

Speaker 2 (07:20):
Well, that's he'd missed the first three practices because he
wasn't feeling well. And then he finally came out on
day four yesterday and he was out there for an hour.
It was like ninety two degrees with humid. I suspect he's,
you know, he just wasn't feeling one hundred percent and
he went in after an hour or so. They didn't
have practice today. They practice tomorrow and Saturday. They're off Sunday.

(07:40):
I would think by the end of this weekend and
they get into the full week next week, I would
expect he'll be one hundred percent and full go. So
it sounds like he was under the weather and they
were just kind of taking it easy with him when
he first came back out for an hour or so yesterday.

Speaker 1 (07:57):
We've mentioned Derek Henry a couple of times. Out side
of Lamar, he is the primary ball carrier, at least
in terms of pure running backs. Gus Edwards, JK. Dobbins.
They're both gone. We talked about them just the other
night with their you know, new home in the AFC West.
But you know, as we look at Henry durable. Obviously,

(08:18):
in twenty twenty one he played eight games, but outside
of that, it's always been at least fifteen going back
to twenty sixteen. Still age, I would think is relevant
for someone at his position. He is thirty years old,
and you know, on the you know, he's halfway to
thirty one, and we still got a big number here.
Nine to fifty point five is the lowest rushing prop

(08:39):
you can find for him, and it's a big touchdown
line as well at ten point five, although he has
cleared that all but one time every year going back
to twenty eighteen. What are your expectations for him, especially
because he is playing with the you know, the kind
of mobile quarterback he has never played with before.

Speaker 2 (08:57):
Yeah, well, I'll say this. I mean he's been asked.
He was asked that his press conversay when he got signed.
He was asked just the other day at the podium
about that age. He's gonna hear. He's hearing this thirty
thing all the time, and I think he's getting kind
of tired of it. And he's basically saying, no, I
got plenty left. Just watch when someone asked him one time,
But what about he say just watch. I'll say this,

(09:18):
he's as physically imposing an athlete as I can ever
remember seeing. He's just a freak. And when you watch
him with the other running backs in the practice field,
they all just look like his little brothers. I mean,
he's just so big and he and we haven't really
seen the speed yet, but I have no doubt it's
there still. I wonder how much though I don't think

(09:39):
they want to wear him out. Obviously, we'll see what.
How again, You've got Jackson's gonna take some of his
carries away, and so you don't often have the one
year twenty nineteen, they had a thousand yard runner in Ingram.
I believe in Jackson also ran for a thousand. I
don't know if they'll get to one thousand yards. I
kind of be a little prize and that As for

(10:02):
the touchdown number, you know, Gus Edwards piled up the
touchdowns last year because he was getting the ball near
the goal line, and I think Henry will do likewise
this year. I forget what Edward's touchdown number was last year,
but I think it was eleven or twelve. I expect
Henry to be that guy. And I'll also say last year,
it's felt like Edwards and Justice Hill, and they had

(10:24):
our young rookie named Keaton Mitchell who came out of
nowhere middle of the season, had a really big stretch
for them and then tore his ACL and for a
while there all three of the backs were getting circulated through.
It feels this year like it's more like Derrick, Henry
and Justice Hill occasionally on third down. But I think
Henry's going to be the bell cow in a way

(10:44):
that this team hasn't really done in the patt You
mentioned Edwards and Dobbins, Edwards and Dobbinson, the Hill, Keaton Mitchell,
and Edwards and Hill, and this year feels like Henry's
going to be the guy which they basically paid him
to be. Keaton Mitchell is coming back from this ACL.
They might have him the second half of the season,
but probably not before that. Until then, I think it

(11:05):
will be highly Henry and Hill. But of course you
also have Jackson running, so I don't know if he'll
get that nine nine twenty whatever you said it was,
but I think his touchdown number will still be on
the high side because I think when they get near
the goal line, it's going to be.

Speaker 1 (11:19):
His ball edwards thirteen rushing touchdowns last year, So yeah,
big number, as you alluded to. All Right, Well, when
we come on back more with Bow, we'll get into
the preseason win total for this team, some of the
odds to you know, go deep into the playoffs. Obviously,
talk about the defense a little bit, and I do
want to circle back just a little bit more on
Lamar Jackson his rushing props, because unlike those passing props,

(11:42):
which for me are more of a stay away spot,
the rushing props very very tempting. More with Bull Smoker
from press box when we return, We've got Bo Smoker
here from press box previewing the Baltimore Ravens twenty twenty
four season, giving you a lot of betting looks on
this squad. No official show futures on Baltimore just ye
maybe by the end of the show. A lot of
different things that we are looking at. We've been talking

(12:04):
about the run game, the overall impact Todd Monkins offense,
and obviously last year's MVP season out of Lamar Jackson,
what are the expectations from him? In the air we
discussed how about on the ground, Bo, I'm looking at
rushing props here for Lamar, and I almost don't believe
what I'm seeing. You can go as low as two

(12:24):
seventy five point five for an overrunner for rushing yards,
four point five rushing touchdowns. Now, the TD number he
has hit five in let's see, four times in his
six years. I'm not as interested in that, but the
two seventy five point five rushing yards. He has cleared
that number literally every year of his career. Is it

(12:45):
so low because of Derrick Henry or is this just
something the books have wrong?

Speaker 2 (12:52):
Yet? I suspect the thought is Dereck Henry's gonna take
the bulk of the yardage running, But I mean, Lamar
Jackson is he's going to run the ball. It's just
it's it's there. It's so much of what they do,
and I don't see them dramatically changing and having Jackson
not be part of this running game. And if he

(13:13):
is a part of the running game, he could put
he could peel off a thirty or forty yard run
at any time. And that's the thing with him. He's
just a different guy that way. So that number does
seem low to me. I know, we're not quite sure
because The Henry addition does have a lot of people
thinking that offense is going to look different in terms
of running the ball. And I still think they'll be

(13:37):
some RPO there that Henry hasn't really done a lot
of in Tennessee. But this is what Jackson likes to do.
It's what he's comfortable doing. Is what Moncton does. And
and again with that RPO, the deception is what makes
Jackson so dangerous, and I think that's what they love
about it, and so I think we'll still see it.
I expect we're going to see a higher number than
that from Jackson because I just think there will be

(13:59):
he will I mean there were times he'll run. There
will be time he runs because he scrambles that will
be designed runs. But he's going to run the ball,
and he when he runs it, he's going to be capable.
He's he's a little bit lighter this year. He talked
about that he wants to be a little leaner, and
so I think that number is low.

Speaker 3 (14:18):
Yeah, that number does seem really low there. But a
big question though going into this season bo is the
offensive line. The Raven's going to replace three starters from
a year ago. They're gonna have some rookies out there.
It looks like some other guys that just haven't played much.
How's that unit shaping up so far? And is that
going to be, you know, continuing question throughout the season.

Speaker 2 (14:39):
I say it's a question right now, that's for sure.
And again it's four days into practice. No one's in
pads yet, so it's really hard to get a real
good view. But I'll say this, it seems so far
that the defensive lineman and edge rushers are in the
backfield on every play, and so they are. They do
have three, they've lost more. Most of the right tackle.

(15:01):
They lost two veteran guards, John Simpson and Kevin Zeitler
were signed away or trader away to other teams. So
there are going to be new spaces at left guard,
at right guard, and at right tackle. They're still trying
to figure out who they're going to be. A lot
of times, what John Harbo will do, he'll try one
combination one week, and then the next week he'll try

(15:22):
a different combination, and then maybe he'll alternate week to
week to try to see what works best. Three of
the five, though, have to be replaced. They're really solid
at center with Tyler Linderbaum, who went to.

Speaker 5 (15:33):
The Pro Bowl.

Speaker 2 (15:34):
They hope, they hope they're solid left tackle with Ronnie Stanley,
who was a former All Pro guy, but his health
has been a concern in the last few years. But
the rest of the guys they have to figure out,
and in this first week it has been it seems
to me the defensive line has clearly won in the trenches.
So I think as of now, after just one week in,

(15:56):
I think that's still very much a concern.

Speaker 1 (16:00):
So before we move to win total, I just want
to mention something for our listeners. I don't even know
if it's worthy of mentioning. Dan and I we're having
an internal back and forth as to whether or not
I screwed this up with Lamar Jackson. The lowest number
you can get on his rushing total, which I hope
I said before. I think I said before, But just
in case I didn't, six seventy five point five on DraftKings,

(16:22):
that is his season rushing total that you can bet
that I would encourage going over on. There's a again
internal debate as to whether I gave a number that
was much much lower than that. So I just want
to mention six to seventy five point five is the
lowest you can go there on Lamar Jackson rushing yards,
which you know even still feels like a low number. Guys,

(16:43):
But let's talk about the expectations for this group, at
least in terms of the books. Preseason win total is
mentioned before is ten point five. Dan mentioned the Ravens
play more games ten against twenty twenty three playoff teams
than anybody else. That includes two teams they faced in
the playoffs, the Chiefs and the Texans. Clearly, it's minus
money on Baltimore to make the playoffs, plus money plus

(17:05):
two point fifty to miss the postseason if you think
really that somebody in particular Lamar is going to get hurt. Otherwise,
I just don't see that happening. But the number that
jumps out at me is, and I know Joe burrow is,
even though he's looking like slim shady right now, is
in the division plus one forty five odds to win
the AFC North bo which is the more appealing number

(17:30):
to you going over ten and a half wins if
you believe they're even going to win eleven plus or
is it to win the division at plus money.

Speaker 2 (17:40):
That's a good question. I mean this division, we saw,
this division is wild and it's so competitive, and I
think the Bengals are such a wild card because with
Burrow and coming back again now healthy, there's dealers with Tomlin,
they always seem to get there somehow. For all their drama,
they end up end up getting there right near the end.

(18:01):
They're around U and with the Browns, you know, the
Deshaun Watson coming back. Now, there's so many questions there
in this division, it's always a war. I think this
team is gonna win eleven games. I don't know which
ones they'll win, which ones they'll lose. Hardbos team just
consistently wins. And Jackson, you know, people rip him for
not producing more in the playoffs, but he has just

(18:25):
constantly produced in the regular season when he's on the field,
and if he stays healthy. I just need this is
an eleven win team. They're still there. Back end of
their defense right now so far looks really good. And
you know, I know it's a new defensive coordinator in
Zach Orr takes over for Mike McDonald, But Zach Orr

(18:45):
worked under Mike McDonald. He played here. He knows the
system really well. They've got some pieces of replace on
defense that but I think with everything, if Jackson stays healthy,
I think this is an eleven win team. I would
take that number.

Speaker 3 (19:00):
You mentioned it there before, though, the question with Baltimore
and it always will be the question until they finally
answer it and break through. Well, is this the year
that they finally break through?

Speaker 4 (19:08):
Bow?

Speaker 3 (19:08):
Do they get to the Super Bowl this year? Do
they possibly hoist the Lombardi Trophy?

Speaker 2 (19:14):
I mean, I don't know what you wanted to say.
I think I think they could do it. I mean,
I'll be honest with you. I think I think they
need to prove it. Really they're still in prove it mode.
And and Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs just just have
it over this team. And do they get to the
super Bowl. They're gonna face the Chiefs in Week one,

(19:36):
the first game of the season, and it's a tricky
spot for this team. Zach or the new defensive coordinator,
your first time calling place as a defensive corn the NFL.
You're doing it on the road to Kansas City week one.

Speaker 5 (19:49):
Have fun with that.

Speaker 2 (19:50):
But they're a good team. I expect they're going to
be right there in the end, do they get to
the Super Bowl? If I had to bet it, I
would say no, because there's just so many other teams
that could get there. And when this team gets to
the playoffs, if they get to the playoffs, and if
Lamar Jackson gets there, they can't deny that. There is
now this build up and it's kind of like an

(20:12):
albatross over Lamar Jackson about you can't win in the playoffs,
you can't win the playoffs, and they scoff at it
because they did win last year and they did get
to the SEC championship game, but they now they have
to get to the next one. They have to get
that next step, and they haven't been able to do it.
And the frustrating thing is it felt like they didn't
play their best in that game. They didn't coach their

(20:34):
best in that game. They got away from the running
game that it just it fell apart on them. They
did a great job they shut the Chiefs out in
the second half, but that wasn't enough because they didn't
execute offensively. And that is partially on the coaches, it's
partially on the mar Jackson, but that is going to
be the narrative for this team. Once they get to
the playoffs, and it's going to only get larger from there,

(20:55):
so the pressure will greatly.

Speaker 6 (20:57):
Be on them.

Speaker 2 (20:58):
Can they get pass to get to the super Bowl?
They can. John Harbot's a terrific coach. It's a pretty
good roster right now if they all stay healthy. I
say it's a really good roster. With a couple of questions.
But this team has this block and the Chiefs have
been it and they have to get by it. And
that's not even a question of how good the Bengals
or if somebody Bills or some of these other teams

(21:18):
might be. So far they haven't able to get by them.
And so there's a lot of obstacles to the Super Bowl,
and that I think that will be an issue when
they if and when they get to the playoffs.

Speaker 1 (21:30):
Well, depending on your enthusiasm for this team to go far.
Plus five point fifty odds to win the AFC, ten
to one odds to win the Super Bowl, we've got
less than a minute bow before we let you go.
Mark Andrews just ten games played last year, did his injury. Obviously,
his over under is seven to twenty five and a
half receiving yards. That's as low as you can go
some places is all the way up to eight hundred

(21:52):
point five. The over under four receiving touchdowns is six
point five. I am just wondering. And I know we
were talking about Lamar in the passing game overall, you know,
how much does he lean on Andrews, who has been
something of a security blanket for him when you can
also consider forget the running options, but all the great
praise of Jay Flowers as you already discussed, and whether
or not he could be a thousand yard guy, but

(22:13):
also what we saw out of Isaiah Likely last year
when Andrews was out.

Speaker 2 (22:19):
Yeah, I mean I think we'll see more of Likely
and Andrews on the field together. I like going over
that number with Andrews if he stays healthy. So far
he's out there, he looks good. He doesn't look to
have any residuals from his injury. And since they came
into the league together, Jackson and Andrews. Andrews is the guy
Jackson always looks for when the play breaks down. I
mean he's running around, he scrambling. Andrews is the guy

(22:42):
he looks for. And Andrews' the guy who seems to
be able to get open, and those two have this thing,
and I think Andrews, well, that won't change. I think
Andrews will still be the guy. He's ferociously competitive, he
wants the ball and so if and I still think
he'll be Jackson, one of Jackson's favorite targets. So I
would expect if they both stay healthy, that's going to

(23:03):
be a connection we see all year.

Speaker 1 (23:06):
A lot of great stuff out of both. Smolka as
always get him on Twitter at b Smolka. He covers
the Ravens for press Box. Bo Always enjoy having you on.
We'll do it again during the season.

Speaker 2 (23:16):
All right, thanks, take care.

Speaker 1 (23:23):
We are back the Gambler with Adam Kaufman. A lot
of good stuff from Joe Dealira obviously in talking about
the men's Olympic basketball bracket. Got the three games tomorrow.
We've obviously got Team USA coming up on Wednesday. A
slew bevy of places that you could play your people's

(23:43):
parlay depending on just how aggressive you want to be
with Victor webmbin Yama, but again plus five forty eight
ESPN is where we are playing our people's parlay. We'll
get everything loaded into the Action app as well, so
normally we do our team by team season preview was
in the opening hour of the show. But again as
mentioned earlier, MLB trade deadline and Mike Petralia, who was

(24:07):
going to join us, covers the Bengals for CLNS Media
also covers the Reds and with Frankie Montas traded away,
that made our guy Mike unavailable. But I'll tell you
what where he is a saint is He said, Look,
I can't do it, guys, but I got someone for you.
I got someone who I think maybe even better than me.
How about that for the hype train. So we're bringing

(24:30):
on for the first time on this show Alex frank
who covers the Bengals NFL and this for Pro Football Network,
probably knows our guy Adam Beasley. He's been on with
us also. You know, he's all over the place talking
Bengals and he's going to do so here with us.
Get him on Twitter at Frankie Underscore NNATI. Alex, how

(24:51):
are you man?

Speaker 6 (24:53):
I'm well, Adam, how are you? It's a great being on.
Thanks so much for your time.

Speaker 1 (24:57):
Well, thank you for being flexible and hopping on last
week minute here with us. We appreciate it we you know,
Dan and I we like, we've got plenty of thoughts
on the Cincinnati Bengals, obviously, but but we aren't the
experts on this team as people like you who are
obviously out there talking to players, talking to coaches, and
you know, giving all the people the actionable information that

(25:17):
we are seeking here in terms of how to bet
this team, how to view this team going into the
new year, and so that in mind. There are many questions,
I think, and they start an end really with Joe Burrow,
who last year missed a considerable chunk of the year,
or at least was not himself throughout really more than

(25:37):
a few weeks between the preseason calf strain. Starts off
really slow the first four games, was just a statue
in the pocket, then hits his stride and then all
of a sudden, the right wrist injury does him in
in late November, He's gone for the rest of the year.
Comes to camp looking like Marshall Mathers and he is
a brand new man. What do we expect from Joe Burrow?

(25:59):
Is he one hundred percent? Is he going to be
himself again?

Speaker 6 (26:03):
Out of my life? The Marshall Meds comparison there that's
a new one around Cincinnati. But what I would tell
you is, and I think Joe Burrow was very close
to one hundred percent throughout the first week. He has
been really, really sharp. He's been accurate, he's been dealing.
He looks like himself, whether it be throwing the football,

(26:24):
whether it be scrambling, whether it be throwing on the run.
He looks like the Joe Burrow of twenty twenty one
and twenty twenty two, and everything with the Cincinnati Bengals
begins and ends with number nine. And it's interesting when
he went down last season, I think there was this
sense of the season's over. And I give Zach Taylor

(26:45):
and the Bengals a lot of credit because they went
four and three without Joe Burrow. But there's no doubt
in my mind the games they lost to Pittsburgh twice
for Kansas City, when the Chiefs only scored one touchdown
yet still won by eight points, they would have been
in the playoffs had Joe Burrow and stayed healthy. So
the good news for Bengals fans is he looks good

(27:07):
so far. He feels good and you can hear it
in his voice and you listen to him in any
offseason interview. He was on parton My Take recently this month.
You can hear the sense of urgency and you can
hear the I'm coming, I'm giving. As you said, I'm
going to give the fans something to talk about this season, Alex.

Speaker 3 (27:29):
The way that the books are looking at Burrow right now,
I'm a little confused by because his passing yards prop
is it's at four thousand on the dot. At some
books it's a little below four thousand, and others that's
a number that Burrow, when he's healthy and he plays
a full season, he has shattered. The only problem is
is that two out of the four years he's been
in the NFL, he has not played the full season

(27:51):
and he's ended up getting a season ending injury somehow.
But what else is going in here with this line?
The receiving position is very interesting with te Higgins and
mar Chase, both those guys with contract issues. What would
prevent Burrow from reaching this number other than he gets hurt.

Speaker 6 (28:08):
It's a young receiving corps. It's a receiving corps that
has a lot of new pieces with Mike Jiesicki, which
name Burton, a rookie out of Alabama, with andre Yosi
Vash a second year receiver out of Princeton, Charlie Jones,
second year receiver out of Purdue. So there's a lot
of new pieces to this offense. And also you have
to factor in the offensive line. If Joe Burrow is

(28:29):
not being protected, he can't throw for four thousand passing yards.
But I would tell anyone who wants to bet on
that prop to hammer the over because Jamar Chase is
going to be fined. I actually like the way he's
handling this. It's very different than the way T Higgins
handled this situation last year. Higgins practiced in training camp

(28:50):
last year, made ongoing negotiations that have ultimately ended with
him signing the franchise tage. This season, Chase realizes I'm
worthy of an extension. This is what I think. I
think Chase realizes he deserves to get an extension. He
doesn't want to jeopardize his health because let's say God forbid,
he does get hurt, then the Bengals have the they

(29:13):
can say, or they can say, well, he's not going
to be playing us this season, why should we extend him?
So I like the way he's handling it. But he's
he's been with the team, he's been practicing before and
after with receivers. I know he was on the jugs
machine after the first practice. He's going to play week one.
We know that Doak terror said he can be ready

(29:34):
for week one because he's a freak athlete. So I
would tell anyone with four thousand passing yards for Joe
Burrow take me over, because he has, as he says,
the most talented deep perceiving corps that he's had since
being drafted by the Bengals in twenty twenty.

Speaker 1 (29:51):
Ten to one MVP odds for Joe Burrow, you've got
plus twelve hundred most tds plus thirteen hundred most yards. Obviously,
he's a guy I fully capable of doing this stuff
again if he is right. And that is in large
part going to come down to, of course, Chase and
Higgins both staying on the field. You know, when I
see Chase and it's it's not like he can't get

(30:12):
to the twelve fifty over under. I mean he could
get to seventeen hundred, you know, receiving yards. For all
we know, Higgins is the one that I guess I'm
a little more drawn to or maybe trying to figure
out exactly how to read it, Dan, because you know
it's it's eight seventy five and a half is his

(30:33):
yardage receiving number, and he got to six fifty in
a dozen games last year. Alex he cleared a thousand
each of the previous two seasons, playing in fourteen and
sixteen games respectively. You know it would seem like an
auto over, But again, do you have faith that he
is going to stay on the field in order to
get there?

Speaker 6 (30:53):
Not only that, but another thing that I think about
what see Higgins a lot is he's very boom or
busts when he catches the football, because he did have
some dropped last season, particularly on Monday Night Football in
Week three against the Rams, he dropped about three or
four passes. But when he is playing at his best,
he is a number one wide receiver. When Jamar Chase

(31:16):
was out for four games in twenty twenty two, it
was t Higgins who had a tremendous four games, and
even when Jamar Chase came back, T Higgins had touchdowns
in three of the next four games. So T Higgins
he's either rocking up yards, he's catching touchdowns, he's making
high light real plays, or he's for example against Cleveland

(31:38):
last year, a week one where he has no catches,
or he's dropping three or four passes against the Rams.
Then he's going through some injuries which he has had
in his career, and even in twenty twenty one he
missed some games and he had a shoulder injury that
kind of nagged him throughout the season. So you can
take the over on his receiving yards, but I mean

(31:59):
there's some things about him that I'm concerned with now.
I think with Joe Burrow and the fact that opposing
defenses are going to try and obviously do whatever they
can to take Jamar Chase out of the game or
at least contain them, t Higgins is going to have opportunities.
But also Mike Jaesicki at tight end, who has been
looking really good at training camp so far this week.

(32:19):
And then you think about a guys like Jermaine Burton
and Andro Yosi Bosch. So the things about Higgins that
I'm worried about our health and drops. It also might
be this season there's just so many weapons for Joe
Burr to throw the ball to that outside Jamar Chase,
who is going to have eighty to one hundred catches
or more or more than twelve to seventeen hundred yards

(32:39):
or even a thousand yards besides Jamar Chase, because there's
so many weapons for Burrow to throw the ball to,
which if you're a Bengals fan, is a good thing.

Speaker 1 (32:48):
We have Alex Frank here with us from Pro Football Network,
also writes for sp Nations Since the Jungle Blog, the
Bengals Blog, more on the Bengals, more futures, props, all
of it. We haven't even gotten to obviously. The new
look backfield, the win total, will this team win the North,
all of that stuff. It's on the way here with
Alex Baker. We are back here with Alex Frank from

(33:10):
Pro Football Network, also writes for The Sinci Jungle. I
think I said Alex Baker before. Alex Baker is a
prominent DFS player over at Ossomo. He is Osmo. That
is the alias the alter ego guy that I know.
Probably got him confused for a hot second. Alex Frank
is here with us talking about the Bengals and breaking

(33:33):
down these players. We're going to give you some futures
at least one anyway, for the show official for this
Bengals season, I want to talk though, Alex about this
backfield with Obviously Joe Mixon, now gone after four thousand
yard rushing seasons in his seven years with Cincinnati was
a weapon as we know in the receiving game as well.

(33:56):
He's a Houston Texan now, but last year, in a
full seventeen games, went for one thousand and thirty four
on the ground, nine touchdowns on the ground, which was
second only to his thirteen back in twenty twenty one,
almost four hundred yards in the air. There's a cast
of guys who will look to replace some of that production,
but the main one is obviously Zack Moss, who was

(34:19):
brought in in the offseason, who most recently was with
Indianapolis Patriots. Fans will remember him from the Buffalo Bills
for a few years as well. Last year was really
his first opportunity at a do I even call it
a starring role. I mean he still didn't even have
two hundred carries, but had about eight hundred yards on
the ground. I think that's where we go here is

(34:42):
the fact that his over under is seven hundred and
fifty point five rushing yards a guy who cleared that
in fourteen games and one hundred and eighty ish carries.
Last year, Mixon carried the ball almost two hundred and
sixty times. Should we pencil in Zack Moss to go
for eight hundred plus yards.

Speaker 6 (35:02):
I think you can. I definitely think you can. And
the Bengals really made a good free agent signing here
with Zack Moss because, as you said, Adham, he really
last season was his first opportunity to really carve out
a prominent role in a backfield with the Colts. He
started eight games, played fourteen, had almost eight hundred yards
in five touchdowns. So the Bengals see, okay, His values

(35:24):
turning up were let's strike while the iron top before
somebody else gets him, and the Bengals got him this offseason.
I think you definitely can. It's a logical play to
penful men or penn and men for eight hundred yards.
But the Bengals were also going to feature Chase Brown,
and Chase Brown last year, of the last seven games
of the season, was one of the best offensive players

(35:44):
on the team, and the blessing in disguise with Joe
Burrow being out for seven games was we got to
see the Bengals offense do some things that we didn't see,
which o'burrow at quarterback, Jake Browning would use Chase Brown
for eight the completions we all remember the touchdown he
had fifty four yards I think against the Colts in
Week fourteen, a little flare pass, bubble screen, the Chase

(36:06):
Brown thinks all the way. So I think Zach Boston,
Chase Brown, They're gonna be a good backfield duo. We're
gonna see some things. The Bengals backfield hasn't been a
huge part of the offense. I mean I shouldn't say that,
but because Joe Mixon was, I think better than people realize.
But when you think of the Bengals offense, you think
Joe Borrow, Jamar Chase Higgins, and Tyler Boyd before he

(36:27):
left for Tennessee this offseason. I think the backfield's gonna
be a huge factor this season for the Bengals. From
Dak Mossy hundred yards, I would say that's a good
play there.

Speaker 3 (36:37):
So, Alex, what is the expectation with this team if
they are fully healthy this year? Ten and a half
is there over under for wins. It's heavily juiced to
the over. One sportsbook even has them ahead of Baltimore
as the favorite to win the AFC North. All the
rest have them right behind the Ravens. I'm looking at
this schedule, man, and that is a very nice first

(36:57):
month to really ease into things. You got the Chiefs game,
but other than that, the Bengals are playing the teams
that finished the three worst records in football last year,
and that includes the opener with the Patriots. But what
is the expectation amongst Beals Bengals fans this year.

Speaker 6 (37:13):
I definitely think they're a Super Bowl contender, Adam. I
really do. And I say that because Joe Burrow if
he stays healthy, and we've seen what what the Bengals
did in those two seasons. They were eighty five seconds
away from winning the Super Bowl three years ago. They
were in the AFC Championship game in twenty twenty two,
and they could have easily beaten the Chiefs in that game.
They were in line to be a number one seed.

(37:35):
We look at this roster, we look at the AFC North.
It's a godwin, we know that. But I said this,
I said this when the Bengals schedule came out. It's
as favorable as it can be. The Bengals are playing
nine road game, as is every AFC team, but they
don't play three games in a row on the road
at any point this season. They have multiple instances of

(37:56):
back to back home games. The schedule is favorable. Is
this Bengals team. If Joe Burrow stays healthy, they're battle tested.
I think Dan Pittrick, Muan Promoter's offensive cot er is
a benefit. I think defensively, they've done a lot of
good things this offseason. So ten and a half wins
hammer the over. And I will also add this with

(38:18):
that Week two game in Kansas City. We all know
the Bengals have gotten off just blow starts. Well, there's
an incentive to get off to a faster start this season,
and that is to play Kansas City. This team wants
to go into Arrowhead and beat the Chiefs. I'm telling
you that right now. And I also think that the Bengals,
despite them getting off a blow starts, the Chiefs aren't
immune to them either. Last year they lose an opening

(38:40):
kickoff night year before that, they lose to the Colton
Week three year before that they were three and four.
So it's two teams that in Week two that have
gotten off just blow starts. If the Bengals go in
Arrowhead and win, which we've seen Joe Burrow do. If
the Bengals win that game, they have the inside track
to the number one seed potentially and the AFC no

(39:00):
through only two weeks, but the schedule, you're right at him.
They have to get off to a good start. Three
to one is the minimum, no excuses, but the opportunity
is there for eleven wins, twelve wins, thirteen fourteen might
be a bit of a stretch. I would say anywhere
between eleven and thirteen is where I would have them.
And I do believe, given that Joe Burrow is very
good in November and December and January, that the Bengals

(39:23):
can outlast the Ravens, the Browns who have a very
good roster, and the Steelers who've done them interesting things
this offseason. And apparently Mike Tomlin only knows winning seasons
in his head coaching tenure with Pittsburgh. So I would
still have the Bengals as the AFC Nord champions.

Speaker 1 (39:40):
Plus one sixty five, your most favorable odds to bet
Cincinnati to win the North. Who as you know we
have mentioned sort of time and time again here easiest
schedule in the division. It includes the Patriots, Hell begins
with the Patriots pants are on to Cincinnati, also as
the Titans the Broncos nine game though against twenty twenty

(40:01):
three playoff teams. But still it is a very favorable schedule.
As Alex was just telling you about, so again that
plus one sixty five to win the division. You want
to get crazy, get wild, plus seven fifty Cincinnati to
win the AFC, fifteen to one odds to win the
Super Bowl. But how much will Joe Burrow, if at all,
be impacted by previous injuries remains to be seen. But

(40:23):
that is the big one. The new OC. We talked
about it Dan Pitcher, with of course Brian Callahan, the
new Tennessee Titans head coach. We'll be talking about him
the Titans a little bit later on as we get
a little deeper into the summer and closer to the
football season. But let's not forget this is a Bengals
team that's still finished above five hundred last year at

(40:44):
nine and eight, even with Jake Browning playing meaningful games,
and of course Burrow being very very limited. You have
Mikeasicki and Trent Brown there as well, so Patriots are
connected at least some way shape or forms. Trent Brown
behaving himself, Alex.

Speaker 6 (41:00):
As far as I'm concerned, Yes, And I didn't realize
how big of an offensive lineman. There's a video. Yeah,
there's a video of him walking a training camp from
the indoor practice facility on the first day, and as
I see that video, I'm like, I had no idea
how massive of an offensive payman this is. But Zach

(41:23):
Taylor did say at the start of training camp he's
dealing with some tightness. So the hope is he's healthy
for the regular season. He's going to be potentially in
a battle for the starting right tackle job with Amarus
Mims with the Bengals drafted eighteenth overall this past spring.
But I like what Fren Brown brings, and you bring
up Mike Jasicki, Adam, I'm a big fan of him.

(41:43):
Most people remember him from his version of the Gritty,
which I think we all were very entertained by. But
I'm excited for what he can bring to this Bengals offense.
He's will sharp this week in camp and red zone drills,
and again the Bengals offseason, they attacked it in ways
that I think they learned a harsh lesson. Going back
to the AFC North conversation last year, this division is very,

(42:07):
very tough. Every team finished above five hundred, and every
team except the Bengals made the playoffs. And I have
a hard time believing if Joe Burrow had stayed healthy
that the Bengals wouldn't have been in the playoffs. They
probably would have been. So they realized what they have
to do to win these division games. If you win,
and Joe Burrow has said this, if you win the

(42:29):
AFC North, you can win the whole thing. And the
Bengals came very close two years in a row when
Burrough stayed healthy the full season. So the additions from
the Patriots and elsewhere I think have made this team
better equipped to play in AFC North games because those
games are a different breed in terms of physicality.

Speaker 1 (42:51):
Alex Rank again covers the Bengals for Pro Football Network,
also writes for the Sinci Jungle, the SB Nation Bengals blog.
Make sure you check them out there. Check them out
on Twitter at Frankie Underscore, Nnati Alex, thanks so much
for hopping on with us, especially at short notice. We
really appreciate all of the knowledge on the Bengals. Look

(43:11):
forward to betting them this season. I'm sure we'll talk
to you again, maybe even ahead of Week one.

Speaker 6 (43:16):
It's gonna be fine a week one. I'm excited to
see your matrious quarterback battle play out. And Adam, thank
you so much. This was fun and I'm looking forward
to the start of the season.

Speaker 1 (43:29):
We are halfway through our conversation about the AFC North,
the Ravens, the Bengals already in the books tonight, Steelers,
and Browns, and let's get right into it with Pittsburgh
and our good friend Andrew Philipponi, of course, covers the
team among all the other Pittsburgh teams out at ninety
three seven the Fan in Pittsburgh. Get him on Twitter
at the Pony Express. Andrew, how are you.

Speaker 2 (43:49):
Bud, Adam.

Speaker 6 (43:52):
I appreciate you having me on.

Speaker 5 (43:54):
I'm getting play by play of another baseball game in
my ear here and not only you, so I don't
know if we can sort that out before we continue
the conversation.

Speaker 1 (44:02):
Wow, we just want to make you really think on
your toes.

Speaker 5 (44:04):
All right, I don't hear it. I'm not sure what
that was, but that was unusual.

Speaker 1 (44:08):
It's probably us in the background cheering on the Philadelphia
Phillies because we really need them to finish off the
Yankees tonight. And a good thing that. You know what,
our listeners didn't hear it? You did? We got it
resolved though, all right, Steelers ten and eight last year
when all was said and done, ten and eight against
the spread as well, for anyone curious from a betting perspective,
seventeenth year under Mike Tomlin. Of course, everyone is aware

(44:31):
that Tomlin has never had a losing season. He has
perhaps right now his best roster since he did back
in the COVID twenty twenty season when he went twelve
and four. But this is a new look offense with
a preseason win total of eight and a half the QBS,
it's been overhauled. Can he pick Att Mason, Rudolph Mitch Trubisky,
gone in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields and also a

(44:54):
new OC Arthur Smith, the former Falcons head coach. And
that doesn't even include changes in the backfield and the
Wide Receiving Corps. This story entering the year, it's about
the QBS. How are you feeling? Is it definitely Russell
Wilson to start week one?

Speaker 5 (45:11):
I think it is. I think it would take an injury.
Now he has that calf, and it was injured in
a very stupid.

Speaker 1 (45:18):
Dumb way.

Speaker 5 (45:19):
Mike Tomlin brought in Boston Colleges strength and conditioning people.
I think in part because his son played college football
there last year. I don't know how else he would
have an understanding of the Boston College strength and conditioning staff.
But they put these guys through a rigorous fitness test
to start training camp, and that included Russell Wilson pushing

(45:42):
sledgs before training camp officially started, and he was hurt
doing that, which caused him to miss the first four
practices and he was out there in limited fashion today.
But what that's done at him is it's given justin
Fields a look with the first team. He did not
get a single rep with the first team Steelers offense
in OTA's or mini camp. And I got to tell you,

(46:05):
the people that are there are saying that the arm
strength downfield, the deep passing accuracy is phenomenal and of
course he will dazzle with a few plays with his
legs every day at practice, so they're still in consistency.
He struggles with some of the throws that honestly, NFL
quarterbacks should make in their sleep. I would still bet

(46:28):
a substantial amount of money that Russell Wilson is their
Week one quarterback. But I'll tell you what, I don't
think there's a super long leash on the guy. And
most of my Steelers insider brethren thought that it would
pretty much be Russell Wilson's job all year. I don't
know how anyone could feel that way watching these first
few practices, I think Justin Field is breathing down the

(46:51):
neck of Russell Wilson once the season starts in Atlanta
on September.

Speaker 3 (46:55):
Eighth, So Andrew, I'm really fascinated to see what this
offense is going to look like, not just with Russ
under center, but also with Arthur Smith calling the plays
as he comes back or takes a step back to
a coordinator role after being the head coach in Atlanta
for a few years. But we know historically he's been
a guy that loves the tight end. Pat Friarmuth is
he ready for a big year this year. I mean,

(47:17):
is his yardage prop is just for seventy five and
a half. This is a guy who had over eight
hundred yards. I believe a few years ago. Could he
get back to that level with Arthur Smith now calling plays?

Speaker 5 (47:27):
Yeah, I love that number for him. There's a lot
of discussion here. To be honest with you, I thought
he would have already had a contract extension done before
they got into Pads because he is going into the
last year of his deal and I know that he
wants a deal. He wants to be here. He has
a house, a nice, big house in Massachusetts. That's where
he's from, as you guys know, and I believe he's

(47:49):
selling that house because he wants to move here full
time and live in Pittsburgh three sixty five. And he's
doing that as a guy going into the last year
of his contract. I don't think he makes a move
like that if he doesn't think this is the right
place for him long term. He is I think a
chance to I think he has a chance to not star,
but I think he can get to that eight hundred

(48:10):
yard mark from a couple of years ago quite easily.
And he is someone that we really have not seen
a great deal of in the Matt Canada offense because
that offensive coordinator was allergic to having his quarterbacks to
utilize the middle of the field. So yeah, I think
for fantasy football and sports vetting props preseason player props,

(48:32):
friar Mouth's a very good bet you worry about injuries
with him. But I think given their lack of depth
at wide receiver, it's George Pickens one and that Pat
Fryermuth is the second option in the passing game.

Speaker 1 (48:43):
I think the other thing in addition to love and
the tight end position with Arthur Smith is that he
is generally a run heavy guy, which obviously won suits
justin fields, well more so than Russell Wilson at this
stage of his career. But as far as the running
backs specifically, you have Najie Harris, Jalen Warren. There's cordell
Or Patterson mixed into this roster as well, but Harris

(49:03):
last year went for over one thousand yards on the ground,
Warren went for about seven to eighty five. Their props
going into the year are well below both of those numbers. Harris,
you can get as low as seven to seventy five
and a half, Warren as low as five ninety and
a half. Should we be looking over on both these
guys or one in particular.

Speaker 5 (49:23):
I actually wouldn't because I think that it's a gigantic
mystery as to how this thing breaks down. I think
the Steelers tip their hand with Naji Harris when they
didn't pick up what is viewed as an affordable fifty
year option at six point seven million dollars in two years.

Speaker 6 (49:42):
Now.

Speaker 5 (49:42):
I'm not a big Naji Harris fan. I don't think
to Fay had any business drafting him the first round.
That was a very bad pick. You don't draft the
running back in the first round unless he's a Christian
McCaffrey type and he gets you a thousand yards every year.
But I think that move suggested to me that they
did not want to marry themselves or wed themselves to

(50:03):
Nase beyond this year. I think there's a chance that
for this offense, even though Arthur Smith liked the big
back with Henry, I think there's a good chance that
Jalen Warren ends up being the number one running back
because of his versatility. He's a very good run blocker,
pass I mean pass blocker. Excuse me. He catches the
ball out of the backfield and makes bigger plays as
the pass catcher. And even though he's small, he's a

(50:26):
tough runner. Now he's got some fumbling issues, but that's
really it. So I think he could flip this year.
I could absolutely see Week one in Atlanta, Jalen Warren
getting more snaps and more touches than Naji Harris.

Speaker 3 (50:39):
So as Adam talked about here at the start of
the segment, Andrew Mike Tomlin seventeen years, never had a
losing season. The over under for the Steelers wins this
year is eight and a half. You can get it
a plus money if you're going over out there, folks.
How does this season play out for Pittsburgh. I'm looking
at this schedule. Starts off, got it starts off kind
of soft, and then by the end that is just

(50:59):
an absolute gauntlet to finish out the year.

Speaker 5 (51:01):
Yeah, that's why I think on paper they're better, and
I think they made a lot of productive moves, both
in their coaching staff direction with assistants with Smith, the
free agency moves Patrick Queen on defense at linebacker to
take him from Baltimore and a draft. I thought they
hit home run with many of their picks, Fautanu from

(51:21):
Washington to tackle Zack Frazier, a center in the second round.
But the schedule is a killer, and I think that
they're going to get average quarterback play from Russell Wilson,
in part because I think Tomlin's strategy in the early
goings is going to be let's make sure a quarterback
does not lose US games, rather than our quarterback winning

(51:44):
US games. It's going to be a very conservative approach. Also,
I don't know how long it's going to take for
everybody to gel on offense with a new quarterback, new
play caller, and like I said, a very young offensive line.
So I just don't see that coming together. They're going
to need to be carried by their defense, which is
possible because they pay more for defense than any team
in the league. But the schedule is just such a bear.

(52:05):
I think I think this team is better than last
year's team that won ten games, but the record will
not reflect that. I think they'll go eight to nine.
I would bet the.

Speaker 6 (52:14):
Under on them.

Speaker 5 (52:14):
I don't feel great about it, but if I had
to pick one side or the other, I would actually
pick Mike Tomlin to have his first losing season.

Speaker 1 (52:21):
Andrew Philipony at The Pony Express on Twitter again covers
all things Pittsburgh at ninety three seven The Fan in Pit.
Andrew really appreciate the time, man. I'm sure we'll talk
to you again, either as we get closer to the
year or in season.

Speaker 5 (52:34):
You mat Adam, I thought you were gonna have me
on to talk Quinn priest Or. I know everybody in
Boston so excited about him and his career six four
six era or whatever it is.

Speaker 1 (52:43):
Enjoy Thanks, buddy. It's hard to even know where to go. Ah, God,
I don't, I don't, I can't, I can't right now.
I'd rather talk about Russell Wilson. To be perfectly honest,
there is a future with this team that I actually
do love, and I'll give it out later. I'm getting
will you will you have something?

Speaker 3 (53:00):
Yeah? Yeah, I think so? All right, and who knows,
maybe we're off the name one which case, yeah, the
next one we're about to talk. I have no idea
leaning probably to know.

Speaker 1 (53:08):
Okay, Well, that's all right, Hey, don't force it. You
like it, you like it, you don't, you don't. We're
going to get into the Cleveland Browns to wrap up
our tour of the AFC North. When we come on back,
it will be Andy Baskin joining us from ninety two
to three The Fan Out in Cleveland, Thanks again to
Andrew Philippony, ninety three to seven, The Fan in Pittsburgh
breaking down all things Stealers. Now it is time to

(53:31):
go to the Cleveland Browns, and with that we go
to Cleveland. The co host of Baskin and Phelps ninety
two to three, The Fan, Andy Baskin, Good, friend of
ours here on the show, Andy hy Ben Good.

Speaker 4 (53:44):
How are you guys doing all this pleasure talk?

Speaker 1 (53:46):
Well, we always appreciate having you on here with us, man,
And it's a very interesting situation I think going into
the brown season. Of course, they're coming off the eleven
and seven campaign, all in ninety seven and two against
the spread. Brown's just their third double digit win season
since nineteen ninety four, and did so most notably with

(54:07):
five different starting quarterbacks, a lot of close games, six
and two games decided by four points or fewer. And
now I think the biggest question going into the year
is obviously that of health. Deshaun Watson, you know he
played in just the six games last year. He went
five and one in those starts, although he was sacked
a ton seventeen times, only a seven to four TD

(54:30):
to interception ratio. And then Joe Flacco comes in off
the couch and you know, comeback Player of the Year
and all that fun stuff. But like it's it's now,
it's about DeShawn Flaco's gone. PJ. Walker's gone. James Winston
and Tyler Huntley are there as well, but it's about
Watson going into the year. Is he healthy? Is he
ready to go?

Speaker 4 (54:50):
So he starts the team is not right now they
are they're their Green Brier down at Over Springs Luster,
So you know, it's it's kind of weird, like you know,
we're going I used to have in camp open. This
is a second year in a row that they've gone
down to the Greenbriar. And to me that when they
were having success late in the season, even though Chill

(55:12):
Flacro didn't join them until late in the year, how
much guys went back and said, you know, we started
this stopping Greenbriar. It really set them for the year.
So I went back up the Greenboro there and the
eleven evens out just getting them some ads on. So, uh,
you are right about injuries. There are two things that
are going to concern this team all season.

Speaker 6 (55:33):
A lot of.

Speaker 4 (55:33):
Injuries and Deshaun Watson. The whole year revolves around Deshaun Watson.
If you look at Andrew Berry, he's a really nice
job of building what's around Shahn Watson. Considering my constraints
that they put themselves Deshaun Watson and also give me
a blows Perstron picks along the way too. So I
think team is as good as it's been since nineteen

(55:55):
ninety nine, and they have a chance to do some
magical things this year. But if the Aran Watson doesn't work,
then you're looking at this wintenneck and I don't think
we want to be in that position for the position, and.

Speaker 1 (56:08):
We're going to put you on hold quick second. The
phone connections a little dicey. But while we're sorting that out,
Just to give people some more specifics on this team,
of course, fifth year under reigning in two time Coach
of the Year Kevin Stefanski, and it is a strong
roster as and he was just alluding to eight and
five or eight point five is the preseason win total,
not unlike the Steelers who we were just talking about,

(56:30):
for this team, and it's a very tough schedule, four
out of the first six games on the road as well.
Yet another team, not unlike Pitt plus money to make
the playoffs and sitting at long odds to win the North,
win the Conference, win the Super Bowl, all of that stuff,
but also another squad that has some changes in terms
of the coaching staff. You know, obviously Stefanski is noted,

(56:53):
it's still there, but there's a new OC. Alex Van Pelt,
who is the Patriots new offensive coordinator, is gone. He
was canned, and so it's Ken Dorsey, who lost his
job in Buffalo now gets a fresh start here with Cleveland,
and there are some questions as to exactly how his
philosophy is going to mesh with this roster. So Andy,
let's get into that a little bit. What are the

(57:14):
expectations for what this offense looks like under Dorsey because
as we know, historically, yeah, avp was the OC, but
ultimately it was Stefanski who was the play caller. Is
Dorsey going to get to be the guy?

Speaker 4 (57:29):
No? Well, kinds Fancy said last week earlier this week
said that he will be calling the place. This is
a big pain that he said as they opened up
can and he'll be going place I don't know, like
like to be a lot while he was here. So
I don't know what the difference is going to be,
especially if Kevin's running the show. So I I just

(57:50):
think that they've got to put the show on in
a position where he's not making wild plays and a piece.
If he able to you know, he's able to RP,
you know, well he needs to know it makes better
decisions to make decisions not throw the bow away. I
think they'll be in good part of the other part
of that offense. His next job, who got Hurt? Brilliant.

(58:12):
He's the beast year and yeah, we all think that
makes us running back in the net the police in Cleveland.
He's got to stay healthy. He's coming back from a
serious injury. A lot of people think he's gonna end
up on the VP for four weeks season, And that's
okay if that's what happens, because it's it's basically miracle
that he's back there on the field at this point.
So but I think again, they're a lot of good

(58:34):
popositive to talk about how they're going to get the
ball out and how de Shawn comes into the season
healthy and has more options, and you know em and
Mary Cooper and to make sure that he's got a
contract because he missed latory mini camp. So the boys
ram to cluss. They picked up Jerry will see if
he looks like it brought to you.

Speaker 3 (58:52):
Yeah, so, Andy, you just kind of started talking about it.
This pass catching group is pretty interesting, and Amari Cooper
he's heading into the age thirty season. But I feel
like the sportsbooks just disrespect this guy continuously. He has
been a one thousand yard a season machine throughout the
majority of his career. I think he's only missed it
twice in ten years in the NFL. And now I'm

(59:12):
looking across the board here, nine hundred and fifty and
a half receiving yards is his over under. I mean,
should we expect this guy to get to the one
thousand yard mark again?

Speaker 6 (59:22):
I do.

Speaker 4 (59:22):
I think I'll get hunger too, because there's a lot
of talking a lot He's going to be bad next
here in Cleveland, and I think the majority of the people,
especially for the office, that doesn't look like these guys
that were over thirty years old. I think he's gonna
want to have a giganic pison. I think he and
de Shaun Watson are really really good together. If you
ask me being received for the runs, it's gonna be

(59:45):
a Mark Cooper and it's gonna be David and Joko.
That's a bad so if you're looking for one too,
and he can go back and look at them before.
That's exactly the way played it out. Like Amar at
last his money yards as David is appear. So Amari
Cooper is have to be the the bass catching machine
that he was over the last couple years.

Speaker 2 (01:00:02):
And I think he's because he.

Speaker 4 (01:00:03):
Knows he's looking at the time streak down the other
side of this. At least they guaranteed his money and
that was why he didn't go to the managering many camp.
So he knows he's getting twenty million, and he knows
he's got a chance for five million more intentives. And
I would hope that maybe some kind of in the
middle of the season they say, okay, let's stretch us
out on this for two more years. Because again this
team does not like anybody. Traditionally, they don't like over

(01:00:26):
thirty on the roster.

Speaker 1 (01:00:29):
And he will keep you a couple more minutes here.
Unfortunately for anyone out there listening, the connection is not great.
Just one of those things. But Nick Chubb obviously, you know,
went down in Week two last year, the season ending
knee injury. He is expected to you know, be back
be his old self. Is that a fair expectation? And

(01:00:50):
as we know, there's a little bit more help in
the backfield now with Naheim Heinz and Deontay Foreman added
as well.

Speaker 4 (01:00:58):
Yeah, I kind of think he's going to be returning,
is what he's good. He's on on football injury list,
So let's see what happens when he looks like I
can I'm honest, I'm gonna be totally honest. I don't
know that you can place any expectations by Nickum. There's
a lot of optimism. I mean, Nick is probably one
of the biggest fan favorites this city has ever had.

(01:01:18):
Last year, he came back after the injury and they
did this car smashing before the game and it's one
of the law of corruptions of the crowd that they
they had the whole season at home. So he is
absolutely positive a love. No one is qushing whether Nick
will work in trying to get back, and we've already
seen it just video him in the weight room, which
kind of blows me away. So, but do you want

(01:01:41):
to be realistic. Let's be Nick can get on the
field at all of this season. When you go back
to look at the injury, insane needs he had problems
with in a pollas and has to reconstructive surgery. I mean,
we are all crossing our friers that Nick Cubb can
come back, and even if he's at eighty percent, that
would be amazing for this off So I think a
lot of fans that are hoping to be back, But

(01:02:03):
I think you have to be realistic and say I
was not expecting to come to be ready to say
week one, or week two, or week three or or weekfore.
There's been any guys like Jerome Ford and even formally
they picked up in the offseason. Those kinds are gonna
have to pick up the place. And Pierre Strong that
you guys know, might also be in that mix.

Speaker 3 (01:02:21):
So a year ago, this team wins eleven games. Andy
Vegas has their over under win total set to eight
and a half. This year, it's pretty heavily juiced to
the over. But looking at this schedule, man, this is
a rough December and early part of January where you
see this team go to Denver, which is never an
easy place to go in primetime, at Pittsburgh home, against

(01:02:41):
the Chiefs at Cincinnati home, Dolphins at Ravens to close
out this season. How does this season end for Cleveland?

Speaker 4 (01:02:49):
It's all the time in on de Shahn Watson, one
hundred percent dependent on this John Watson. Forget that the
entire AFC North made the ployotoff maure, which has never happened. So,
I mean, you've got those games against Kangsty North and
they are going to snyke the wins because just when
you think you're going to go into Cencinnati and pay
for victory, and Joe Burrow has a Joe Burrow game.
Although the Bars has been successful against him, Bisburg continues

(01:03:13):
to give Cleveland problems no matter where they're playing, whether
where they're at, So U I understand why they is
given the number that they are. If Shaun Watson can
be Deshaun Watson, uh over is the way to go
on that. I just the team is just better. But
the thing you have to watch for Lebron and I
would watch early on in the season is to see
what helps the offensive finance. Willis is under is still

(01:03:36):
not one hundred percent healthy. And Jack Corlin, we don't
know where he's going to be at this point because
he's also coming out of injuries. You've got you know
that calls on both sides that are coming into the
team not healthy. Plus Jawan Jones is a little bit
banged up. And you've really fernized last year pick up
x In from Michigan. Who was you know another guy
that you know ended his career with injury. It's Ohio State.

(01:03:58):
I can keep me up. I'm interesting into this whole thing.
But you have to watch the brug off the line.
They're banged out.

Speaker 1 (01:04:08):
Andy Baskin again from ninety two to three. The fan
out there in Cleveland, and uh, hopefully you're able to
parse through some of that. They're a lot of good information, obviously,
but unfortunately, uh, some of that just a little bit challenging.
But do check out the podcast and comb through it
because we're gonna give you some futures related to the
Cleveland Browns coming up in just a little bit as well.

(01:04:31):
But Andy, thanks so much for hopping on man. We'll
definitely do it again.

Speaker 4 (01:04:35):
No worry, Sorry, ball line something. I think there's something
down in wister.

Speaker 1 (01:04:39):
All yeah, it's good. Look it's blame Worcester. Uh yeah,
it's uh no, obviously totally understandable, and that happens. I've
been on that side of the things before as well.
Our number two of the Gambler with Adam Kauffman here
on w RKO, we come your way ten to midnight
Eastern through Thursday. Each and every night we are talking

(01:05:03):
about one, if not more than one NFL team, going
city by city across the league, getting you ready for
a brand new season, which begins on September fifth, giving
you some favorite plays, some best bets, at the very least,
some good information to direct you to make decisions on
how you would like to bet on many, if not all,

(01:05:25):
of these teams. We have a whole bunch of show
futures that we have already handed out on the AFC East,
the AFC West, and we have started to on the
AFC North as well. Already of course discussed the Ravens,
the Bengals, and now tonight the Browns and the Steelers,
as well. It's time to recap all things AFC North,
and if there is ever an indication that football season

(01:05:48):
is right around the corner, it is that we are
pleased to welcome back Mike Randall, Chief Content Officer over
at FTN Network at Randall rant on Twitter, someone who
was on with us quite a bit, especially it seemed
on Wednesdays previewing Thursday Night Football and being a part
of oh so many of those people's parlays, and quite
a bit during college basketball season as well. But it

(01:06:10):
has been since March somehow since he has joined us.
So yeah, football is right around the corner, including a
Hall of Fame game coming up in less than forty
eight hours. Mike, how are you, bud?

Speaker 5 (01:06:21):
Guys you bring me back to the Black and Blue Division.

Speaker 1 (01:06:24):
I love it.

Speaker 5 (01:06:25):
I'm thrilled NFL on Thursday. Let's get going.

Speaker 1 (01:06:28):
I know we're happy to have you. So just to
tell the people, for anyone that has missed it during
the week, some of the futures that we have already
given out for this division. There will be more specific
to the Browns and Steelers a little bit later on,
but as far as the Ravens and Bengals, go. We
gave you these two from Dan Raven's, actually three from

(01:06:49):
Dan Ravens under ten and a half wins. He's down
on Baltimore. That's even money. Play t Higgins plus one
fifty five to get to one thousand plus receiving yards.
Also Bengals to win the AFC plus seven point fifty
on FanDuel and the one sort of lazy one that

(01:07:12):
I gave you by comparison, Lamar Jackson over not two
seventy five, over six hundred and eighty five point five
rushing yards that is available to you, or pardon me,
over six seventy five rushing yards that I had to
play it over on the six eighty five. But we
gave it out as a show over six seventy five

(01:07:32):
point five rushing yards for Lamar Jackson this year. So Mike,
let's start there. Those four futures. Any thoughts on any of.

Speaker 5 (01:07:40):
Those, Yeah, my concern with the Bengals, and I'm in
the minority on this. I understand you look at the
futures here and all of the over win totals are
juiced to the over all the wind totals juicy over
at the exception of the Steelers, I understand the thought
with the Bengals. I don't think they're deep is better.

(01:08:01):
Their offensive line really enjoyed sort of bizarre health last
year for the seventeen games. I don't know about the backfield.

Speaker 6 (01:08:10):
The Egans is.

Speaker 5 (01:08:11):
Upset about his contract. We know Burrow had the injury.
I get the path for the Bengals because if you
look at a projected strength to schedule, the Browns, the Steelers,
and the Ravens are all in the top six and
the Bengals are in the bottom sicks six. Easiest schedule
for Vegas projected winters. I do not believe in the
Bengals this year. I don't This is a tough division.

(01:08:31):
I understand we love Burrow, we love Chase. I don't
know what else we love about the Bengals. So I'm
on the other side of the Bengals here. I get
everything else, but that one worries me, and I'm in
a minority. I get it. I just don't see it
in this division, probably because I think the skills is
better than most real life.

Speaker 3 (01:08:47):
So Mike the reasoning that I really love Cincinnati one, yes,
I do think Joe Burrow is going to have a
big comeback year this year. But two, as you were
talking about the schedule, I think it sets up for
them to have home playoff games. And if there's any
quarterback in the NFL that I'm going to take to
beat Patrick Mahomes that's still playing in the NFL, it's
Joe Burrow.

Speaker 5 (01:09:07):
Yeah, you're right, I can't argue that, and in that
isolated situation I probably would as well. It's just I
look at these other teams, the Browns, the defense with
the Steelers, who have beaten the Ravens seven out of eight,
and the Ravens, who, I agree with you, who should
be very good. Although no Patrick Queen, no Davin Clowney,
no Mike McDonald, I don't see the Bengals. I could

(01:09:31):
see them winning a really tough division here at like
ten and seven, But the idea that the Bengals are
going to get eleven or possible twelve wins, I don't
see it. I don't think they're good enough on the
defensive side of the ball, and I don't trust them
on the offensive line.

Speaker 6 (01:09:45):
Those are my concerns.

Speaker 1 (01:09:47):
So Mike, we could throw, you know, our futures out
at you and break those down for days. But You're
here because we want to know what you have your
eyes on the AFC North, So throw it at us.

Speaker 5 (01:09:58):
Well, the first one I'll start with is the longest
odds you can get. Guys, are the Steelers to win
the division? And I have absolutely no problem with that.
I know their schedule is brutal, I get it, but
they don't play a division opponent until Week eleven. They've
won seven of their last eight against the Ravens and realistically, guys,
look at that schedule, they could start seven and two.

Speaker 6 (01:10:20):
It is very possible.

Speaker 5 (01:10:22):
Last year, Mike Tomlin one of the best coaches in
football Penn and seven and they had you and I
at quarterback basically the entire year. So I think the
Steelers are being undervalued. I already have them to win
the division. I think it is. It is something that's
very underrated by the betting market and where just all
of a sudden, I think that Russell Wilson is cooked

(01:10:42):
and the Justin Fields can't do anything. Guys, both of
them are light years better than Kenny Tickett was last year.

Speaker 4 (01:10:48):
Mike.

Speaker 3 (01:10:48):
The Cleveland Browns to me, are just one gigantic question mark.
I mean, I don't know what to expect from Deshaun
Watson if he's healthy, when he's back, what's he going
to look like Nick Chubb A gigantic question. But Vegas
thinks that they're going to take a big step back
this year. This team one eleven games a year ago.
A year ago, just eight and a half is their
total for this season. What do you think about Cleveland?

Speaker 5 (01:11:10):
I think the number is thirty seven, guys, that's the
amount of rushing yards fewer per game the Browns have
had without Nick Chubb in the lineup. So they are
a run heavy team that needs to run the ball
to be successful. Unless you think DeShawn Watson somehow is
going to bounce back, which I don't. They need a
healthy Nick Chubb. They don't have it. Their defense certainly

(01:11:33):
is strong, but totally fell by the wayside at the
end of last year. The guy that I'm going for
in this on the on the Browns who I love
is David and Joku. Guys eighty one, eight eighty two
and six eighty one receptions, eight under eighteen yards and
six touchdowns with horrific, absolutely horrific quarterback play and if
you go right now, his prop for receiving yards is

(01:11:56):
around seven to twenty five, and that's juice to the under.
So the one Brown player I really like David Joko,
and it's not because he's from Cedar Grove, New Jersey.
It's because he did it last year with such brutal
quarterback play. And even if Watson is just passable, he
can do some damage.

Speaker 1 (01:12:13):
Who's the biggest injury concern in the division? Filled with
them as far as impacting how everything settles obviously come
the right end of the regular season.

Speaker 5 (01:12:23):
That's a rhetorical question. What is wrong with Lamar Jackson's
immune system? I mean, the guyans now in the preseason
and look, Aaron shots here at FTN got a lot
of criticism last year because he was the only one
who did not vote Lamar Jackson as the first place
for MVP. He put him second. He put Josh Allen first. Guys,

(01:12:45):
let's take it easy. Did Lamar Jackson have like fifty
touchdowns last year? He was good, but I wouldn't say
he was that much better. And if this sickness thing
lingers and the defense isn't as good, that's the injury
that can't happen that can swing it. And by the way, again,
when Lamar's healthy, they still can't beat the Steelers.

Speaker 2 (01:13:03):
That's the biggest pivot point in the division.

Speaker 3 (01:13:06):
So I give out Cincinnati to reach the Super Bowl. Mike,
do you think that any of these teams have the
ability to run through the AFC in January and play
for the Lombardi Trophy.

Speaker 5 (01:13:16):
I really don't. I don't I could see them making
I mean, certainly, the Ravens are solid, and I would
never doubt the Steelers. You are not. I do not
think the Bengals and the Browns are making the AFC
Championship Game. I don't think any of these teams are
making the super Bowl. Coming out of the West. There's
always a team that goes worse the first guys. I
think it's nineteen of the last twenty years a team

(01:13:37):
that is finished left in their division in the NFL
has ended up winning the division, which plays into what
you said about the Bengals. I don't see it here.
I don't see these teams making the Super Bowl. They're
going to beat the heck out of each other, and
their record is not going to put them at home
playoff games, which, as you mentioned, is critical. The only
one could make that run I don't agree with it,
but there's a pass is the Bengals because they got

(01:13:59):
to get that game at home. I think they're all
going to suffer from beating each other up. They're gonna
have to win too many games on the road.

Speaker 1 (01:14:06):
Dann anything else you want to hit before we let
Mike go, No, I think we hit it all all right.
Beautiful again, Mike Randall, the chief content officer over at
FTN Network, and Mike, we look forward obviously to football season,
to having you back regularly and hopefully trying to win
some people's parlays with you as well.

Speaker 5 (01:14:25):
Always, guys, thanks for having me.

Speaker 6 (01:14:26):
Appreciate it.

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