NFL Championship Sunday Matchups Are Set!

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
W r k O presens Boston's only nightly sports betting show,
The Gambler with Adam Kaufman.

Speaker 2 (00:08):
Now from nine till midnight.

Speaker 1 (00:11):
Your home to talk, spreads, promps, totals and more. Hey, Doc,
and what's the harm of bringing back a little info
in the future? Now, maybe we can place a couple
of deaths.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
The Gambler starts now.

Speaker 3 (00:22):
All I have to do is bet on the winner,
and I'll never lose.

Speaker 2 (00:25):
Hears Adam Kaufman.

Speaker 4 (00:30):
What's up everybody? Welcome man, short week.

Speaker 5 (00:33):
I feel like we've been saying this recently.

Speaker 4 (00:35):
Short week for The Gambler with Adam Kaufman here on
w RKO. We have got you tonight through Thursday. It's
three shows as opposed to the normal. For you know,
Dan Watkins. It's funny. A friend of mine, he reached
out to me earlier today listens to the program. We
appreciate that, obviously, says, but don't you ever work anymore?

(00:58):
Like last night was college for Paul's National champions If
you're not on the air, I said, listen, I didn't
make it. Martin Luther King Day, I don't I don't
make the rules. Holiday is a holiday, man, if they
say it don't work, I'm not gonna work, right, Yeah,
I suppose it feels like we take a little time
the calendar.

Speaker 6 (01:16):
Sometimes January's been I mean it's fine, by which I'm
totally fine with. The sooner we get out of this
just brutal cold, the better. But yeah, there are a
lot of three day weekends and three day work with
one day work weeks. And yeah, it's uh, it's definitely.

Speaker 5 (01:32):
My birthday's coming up. Should I take my birthday off?
Do people do that anymore?

Speaker 6 (01:35):
Is it during a show night?

Speaker 5 (01:37):
It is a week from tonight?

Speaker 6 (01:38):
Oh, there you go.

Speaker 4 (01:39):
Yeah, it's probably too late to put in the request.
Probably all right, he'll be here. It's great to have
everybody with us. So listen. The NFL is down to
its final four. It did not play out exactly as
I would have thought, that's for sure. Saturday started off
so nicely for me because I perfectly and when I

(02:04):
say perfectly, I mean luckily milled a situation which had
to have been a nightmare, by the way, for the books,
because I had, like so many others. I'm sure Chiefs
money line is part of parlays and I was on
the Texans not plus eight and a half plus nine
and a half.

Speaker 6 (02:23):
There you go.

Speaker 4 (02:24):
So with that fortuitous dumb luck safety in the final
like eleven seconds of that game, I mean again, nightmare
situation for Vegas because if you had Chiefs minus eight
and a half, you covered. If you had Texans plus
nine and a half, you covered. If you were on
the nine when it settled there you avoided. You got

(02:44):
your money back. I mean, Vegas lost in pretty much
every way imaginable on that game and then went out
that night and got it all back, probably tenfold, because
how many of us were on the Lions to cover
or at the very least money line, just assuming Detroit

(03:04):
would take care of Washington and move on to the
final four, move on to the Conference final, to set
up a date with an all likelihood, we expected Philadelphia Rams.
I mean, we were invested in the Rams, we were
rooting for the Rams, had a plus three thousand ticket
on the Rams to win the Super Bowl.

Speaker 5 (03:21):
Let's go.

Speaker 4 (03:22):
But of course we knew that was a long shot.
Detroit not a long shot. The Lions were similarly what
eight eight and a half point favorites. The expectation is
Detroit was going to win that game, but.

Speaker 6 (03:37):
Instead Jared Goff happened.

Speaker 4 (03:38):
Jared Goff turned into Justin Herbert. Like again, it was
Herbert two interceptions all year during the regular season, turns
the ball over four times in his playoff game against
the Texans, and then for the Lions, Jared Goff and
not just Goff. Ben Johnson, the new Bears head coach
Dan Campbell, mister aggressive, mister creative, Mister let's get cute.

(04:02):
It worked this time, Let's try it again. Goff turned
the ball over what four times? I think he had
three interceptions and I lost to fumble as well, So
he turns the ball over four times. But what was
especially irritating was even along the way, it was such
a winnable game. They're down thirty one to twenty eight.
You know they're coming to They finally get a defensive

(04:24):
stop to start the second half, come back, score a touchdown,
make it a three point game. It's okay, like nightmares
behind us. Detroit's gonna win this game. I'm gonna win
my parlays because you know, obviously Detroit is the only
leg that screws up every parlay that I'm in all weekend.
Because that was where I had real conviction, Like it wasn't. Oh,

(04:46):
let's take Detroit, you know, plus fourteen and a half,
No Detroit money line. The Lions are gonna win this
freaking game. And again they get stupid, they get cute,
liked David Montgomery completed a twenty yard pass earlier. Let's
catch him off guard again. Let's go with the double reversal,
and then Jamison Williams gets intercepted.

Speaker 5 (05:07):
That's how you turn it. And then like, honestly, from
there on out.

Speaker 6 (05:10):
Dan, that felt like the game.

Speaker 4 (05:11):
It was the game. It felt like the game, and
it was just so I know Goff was not having
a good day. He certainly wasn't. He's still a better
passer than Jamison Williams. Like, go with the guy that
brought you there. It's right there. You are in reach.
You are in striking distance of taking a lead in
that game for the first time since the opening quarter,

(05:34):
after allowing twenty eight points Aaron Glenn and your ravage
defense in quarter number two and putting some pressure on
Quinn Daniels. Just the commanders in general haven't been there before.
This is your chance put the fear of God into
him just a little bit. But instead you couldn't do it.

(05:54):
You couldn't take a lead. So that screws up everything.
Brings us to Sunday, where the Eagles, I don't even
say easily took care of the Rams, but it never
really felt like the Rams were gonna win that game.

Speaker 6 (06:05):
That game, it went from like Eagles had this thing
in the bag to all of a sudden, like, oh
my god, they actually gonna blow this.

Speaker 5 (06:11):
Yeah, there was going away. They're not going away. And
I'm sitting there on the couch.

Speaker 6 (06:14):
For fifty two left right, it's twenty and all of
a sudden, the Rams are like in the red zone,
are on the verse of the red zone because Pooka
finally shows up makes an insane catch along the sideline
and the snow, and uh, it was yeah, it was nuts.
I fortunately, like I was waiting all morning Sunday to
get for that plus seven to pop up. M got
it nice. So that was that was great. Like there

(06:36):
was the six and a half. I mean six and
a half would have cover two, sure, but I actually
had the Eagles five and a half, did you Oh
there you go look at that, imagine look at that.
But yeah, finally that seven popped up at like one
o'clock Sunday afternoon. I'm like, all right, better grab this
because like somehow I just hurts is banged up. He's
banged up more than I think they're letting on. And
uh yeah, the Rams are just a pesky team. And

(06:57):
I thought they had the coaching advantage, even though I
didn't really love everything that McVeigh was doing in that game,
and they hung around and they almost pulled it off
there at the end, but unfortunately they didn't. They didn't.

Speaker 4 (07:07):
Weather turned that thing on its side in the second
half as well, just to I mean, just strategically, the game.

Speaker 5 (07:12):
So totally changed.

Speaker 4 (07:13):
Sakuon Barkley again rushes for two hundred yards against that team.
Dude is a force two touchdowns. But then we get
to the marquee game of the weekend in terms of
expectation on paper, who's gonna win Battle of the MVP finalists,
all that stuff. Bill's Ravens in Buffalo and lived up

(07:34):
to the hype. Obviously, I was sitting there. I took
among I mean, it's it not the worst beat I've
ever had, but it's it. It's got to be up there.
I had one of my builder parlays and I would
I would place this bet a hundred times out of
one hundred. Again, this was this was true wrong side

(07:56):
of variants. I had, you know, a bunch of all.
I felt the Bills were going to win the game,
so I didn't get screwed up there. I had this
big no sweat beat Fandals giving out a million no
sweats over the course of the weekend. Between these games, everything,
I'm hitting all my you know, low achievement ones, you know,
like Derrick Henry had like thirty yards if that at halftime?

(08:18):
And is his live total at the I wish we
were on the air. His live total at the half
was forty eight and a half. I was like, how
does he not go over that? You know, finishes at
eighty four. Here's where I got bitten, Dan, and I
still honestly don't really understand it. I really don't. In
a game that the Bills won, that the Bills continued

(08:39):
to throw that. Josh Allen played the entire game, never
got hurt, was competitive throughout. He did not reach one
hundred and fifty combined passing and rushing yards. He was
at one forty nine before the two kneel downs brought
down to one forty seven. If he was at one

(08:59):
fifty one before those kneel downs, I would have really
lost my mind. It is so but I bring that
up because again, this was such a winnable game for Baltimore.
If Mark Andrews doesn't fumble for the first time in
years and then proceeds to I don't want to say

(09:20):
people are calling it a drop, it wasn't really a
drop because he didn't actually ever have control of it.
He should have, he absolutely should have. It was right
there and there was nobody around him. It was I
mean it was it was at the hands. He should
have caught it. But that two point conversion, Lamar leads
the touchdown drive there in the final moments of the game,
two point and I'm sitting there going I don't care
about my Bills money line ticket, I don't care about

(09:41):
my Bill's futures.

Speaker 5 (09:42):
I don't care about Bills to win it, like.

Speaker 4 (09:43):
Right now, I care about Josh Allen, get tie this game,
Tie this game, and then I'll go back to rooting
for the Bills. I need Josh to throw this ball again,
and Mark Andrews can't catch that two point conversion. You
knew what was gonna happen at that point, let's just
kneel out the clock twenty seven to twenty five.

Speaker 5 (09:59):
The Bill win.

Speaker 4 (10:00):
So it sets up now for conference finals Sunday. We've
got Bill's Chiefs, an opportunity for Buffalo te exercise some
demons or God forbid, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Andy
Reid heading back to a third straight Super Bowl and
us having to talk about that for two weeks, and
of course Eagles Commanders. Now, I don't know what. I

(10:26):
don't know Vegas is rooting for. I don't know what
the average football fan is rooting for. I know what
I'm rooting for. Give me something different, give me Bills Commanders. Sure,
that's what I want in the super Bowl. Sure that
would be nice. I agree with you. That would be
like preferential that I like what I would prefer to
talk about.

Speaker 5 (10:42):
You feel like it's Chiefs Eagles.

Speaker 3 (10:44):
No, I.

Speaker 6 (10:46):
Feel very strongly that Philadelphia is winning Sunday. The whole
rookie quarterback thing, that bubble is going to burst this weekend,
and it feels like the sofa. The market also feels
that way. That game opened up at four and a half.
It's now to six and a half on FanDuel we
might get to seven. We'll see by the weekend. Yeah,
I'm going back and forth. I still don't know who's

(11:07):
gonna win the AFC because something about that the way
the Bills won, That offense kind of cratered in the
second half. There was some weather. Yes, Baltimore's really good,
but it was cold weather.

Speaker 4 (11:18):
It wasn't weather like the blizzard they had in the
early game, right, but.

Speaker 6 (11:22):
Just something something cratered in that second half there. And
I just had Kansas City just it just feels like
here we go again, like depleted, and like it's just
I mean, Houston like didn't even cover Travis Kelcey, which
was good for us as a show. We should have
full on laddered him right instead of just his base
at fifty. And then you know, that was the first

(11:44):
prop I looked at too for this AFC Championship game, like, oh,
what do they got Kelsey at this week? If they
got them in the fifties again, I'm already locking it in.
It was at sixty eight. That's a little high sense.
But yeah, I don't know, We'll see as this week
goes on. I mean, I'm hoping Buffalo wins. I'm rooting
for Buffalo, but I don't know if I can bet
against Patrick Mahomes. So the lines are and Dan stilluded

(12:05):
to it. You have the Chiefs minus one and a
half minus two depends where you look, and of course
on the other side the Eagles minus six six and
a half. So clearly the expectation is not that that
one will be all that competitive.

Speaker 5 (12:17):
That line.

Speaker 4 (12:17):
We've seen some growth already. It opened at minus four
and a half. It has jumped almost the two full
points at most places, and of course you know Bill's
Chiefs that hasn't moved all that much. You know, it
opened at the one and a half. And again that's
still available to you, so you can think about it.
For the next few days. We'll be talking plenty about it.
Right to our NFL Review preview Professional Handicappers Sports Better

(12:39):
Scott Pritchard is going to join us Pritchard's Picks here
on this show. We'll be getting into our previews with
the beat writers radio personalities from each city for the
final four throughout the week as well, So looking forward
to that and what the attitudes are about these games.
The other thing, well, there are two other things one
other football note. We won't discuss it here because we

(13:00):
don't have time and I want to be able to
actually discuss it. Patriots apeared to have an offensive coordinator
Josh McDaniels round three. Looks like he is in to
assist Mike Rabeles. We'll get to that a little bit
later on the show. Maybe tomorrow or the next night.
Have a one of our Patriots guests on to discuss it.

Speaker 5 (13:17):
Maybe maybe James White.

Speaker 4 (13:19):
Maybe maybe we reach out to you know, sweet Feet,
get his perspective obviously some knows McDaniels quite well, and
get his perspective on on what this may look like
with Drake May The other thing, Dan haven't brought it
up over text, haven't brought it up in person in
seeing you wanted to save it for air as a show.

(13:41):
We did profit on the outcome of last night's college
football National Championship game because we had I had Ohio
and you never would have made this bet Ohio State
to cover the eight and a half thirty four to
twenty three against your Notre Dame fighting Irish college football
season ends.

Speaker 5 (14:00):
Honestly, I'm just happy.

Speaker 4 (14:04):
We got a game. I didn't think they turned into one.
I didn't think Notre Dame was going to put up
a fight in that one. Truthfully, most people, you know,
if you looked at my Twitter and putting out all
the expert predictions from the people that come on the
show regularly, most people expected Ohio State in a landslide.
Most people were also on the under. We didn't get there.
We got to the over because again, the fighting Irish

(14:25):
decided to kind of show up a little bit more
in the second half. But had that one play out
compared to what you thought, Well, the first nine and
a half minutes were fantastic.

Speaker 5 (14:35):
Sure, yeah, touchdown.

Speaker 6 (14:37):
I was like, oh my god, are they just going
to run the Michigan playbook at them? And like Ohio
State doesn't know how to handle it. And then the
Buckeyes got the ball, and you just saw the talent
mismatch and you hear the talent composite between those two teams.
How Ohio State has ten five star recruits Notre Dame
had none, And that was just very evident throughout that
game last night. Will Howard missed one pass in the
first half, and I think it was intentional to miss

(14:59):
the to maybe stop the clock. He was like fourteen
or fifteen. But yeah, Notre Dame could not get a
stop whatsoever. All those injuries that we were kind of
talking about last week with some of our guests were
just they just they caught up. Last night. I was
very surprised that Notre Dame actually, like in the fourth quarter.
I kind of like felt like, oh my god, they
might actually like allow Ohio State to like puke this away.

(15:20):
And it was starting to swing that way a little bit,
and then Marcus Freeman had a rough night. I thought
that decision to kick that field goal was bad. To
put it lightly, you should have just gone for the
touchdown there, And I mean, no, if you miss, you miss.
You know, if you don't convert and don't score a
touchdown there is much better than you know, jinking a
field goal. Sure, but I'm sure a lot of people

(15:41):
who had that eight and a half got real sweaty
there for a minute as Notre Dame's you know, it
gets back with an eight and then they like.

Speaker 5 (15:46):
I don't get that giant gain at unbelievable for sure.

Speaker 6 (15:49):
But yeah, I think the man coverage thing that we
were talking about all week with Notre Dame playing more
man coverags than anyone in the country. Kind of felt
like they were doing a little bit of we do
what we do, and you know, if we lose this way,
we lose this way. And Jeremiah Smith just an alien.
That kid's still got two more years of college. Like
it's unbelievable that kid is eighteen years old and he

(16:11):
is just an absolute freak. But yeah, no credit to
Ohio State, credit to Ryan Day. I mean they rallied
after that, after that lost to Michigan, and they turned
into a full on buzzsaw and just steamrolled through the
college football playoff.

Speaker 4 (16:23):
Yeah, I mean, it didn't go the way you wanted
to as a fan obviously, but I think, as you said,
we talked about it a lot here on the show
and just Ohio State as a program a lot in
recent weeks throughout the playoff and leading up to the playoff.
And look, a lot of the things that either we
told you or the insiders that we have on told
you played out. So you know, good read to the team,

(16:44):
even if it wasn't the fan result for sure. All Right,
we got to step aside. We got a lot come
in your way. NFL review preview, as mentioned with Scott
Pritchard in the second hour. Jim Turvy roto Grinders deep
Dive in tomorrow in the NBA. We will have him
on with us in the final hour of the program.
People's parlay, bank or repairs, all that good stuff.

Speaker 1 (17:05):
If there are games to be played, there are bets
to be made.

Speaker 2 (17:09):
I'll bet you twenty bucks I can get you gambled
before the end of the gym.

Speaker 7 (17:12):
No way, I'll give you three to one eyes five to.

Speaker 1 (17:18):
Get ahead of line movement, find in game value, and
hear the latest insights from your favorite industry experts.

Speaker 2 (17:25):
This is my gambling.

Speaker 5 (17:26):
Good Bye, win, We all win.

Speaker 1 (17:27):
Tell your smart speaker to play that Gambler with Adam
Kauffman on WRKO on iHeartRadio.

Speaker 4 (17:39):
Hour number two of The Gambler with Adam Kauffman WRKO.
If you miss a moment of the show, check out
the podcast wherever you get your podcasts, download, subscribe, rate,
review search. Of course, that full name will be there
for you. Trying to make some money. We've been on
a good run the last few days, actually between a
couple of at least one NFL futures cashing, but that

(18:02):
really wasn't even that bank roll, repairs, straights, rob just
you know, a good couple of days.

Speaker 5 (18:08):
Hoping to continue it tonight. Keep building, keep building, That's
all it is.

Speaker 7 (18:12):
You know.

Speaker 4 (18:12):
We're not cocky about it. We're grateful. Want to make
that abundantly clear to the gambling gods. Look down favorably
upon us, as you will. We appreciate you, all right.
A guy who's had a lot of success, lots and
lots of success to the point where he can go
on vacation to like Tahiti and places like this in

(18:35):
the football offseason. Friend of the Program joins us once
again tonight talk through the Final four and a look
back at the divisional round as well in the nfl
our NFL Review preview. Scott Pritchard. He is on Twitter
at prichard Wins Las Vegas Professional Sportsbetter and handicapper prichard'spicks

(18:56):
dot com, where you can subscribe to his service.

Speaker 8 (18:58):
Scott, how you been, Adam, Dan, Dan, Adam? Unlike the
two of you, I am not humble americant for good reason,
and you have to have conviction and you better.

Speaker 7 (19:13):
But I don't believe in the gambling gods. I'm a
gambling god atheist.

Speaker 4 (19:18):
I thought you were going to say you're a gambling god,
which I mean you might be with all that you
have achieved. Obviously, how did you see the divisional round
playing out? How did it play out for your wallet?
The expectation versus reality.

Speaker 7 (19:31):
I've got a future that I sat on this show
back in August, and you guys may remember, and I
doubt that your viewers do, but I'm here to remind
the masses radio and TV. August and September, people would ask, Hey,
who's going to the Super Bowl? I said, the Kansas
City Chiefs will have the inside track to three peat

(19:54):
number one, number two. I'm picking a team, not the Niners,
they were the odds on favorite, not the Lions with
Dan Gamble. I picked a team that wasn't even projected
to win their division. The Dallas Cowboys were projected to
win their division, and my money was on the Philadelphia Eagles.
KC Eagles and the Chiefs had a super tough schedule

(20:19):
the first five games, but they came out unblemished five
and zero. And then I stepped up to the bet window.
After backing up the truck and unloading on an EXACTA
Kansas City Chiefs to beat the Philadelphia Eagles at fifty five.
That's five five to one odds.

Speaker 4 (20:39):
I'm still alive, sure are absolutely And it was a
maybe a little bit of a sweaty weekend, not so
much on the KC side. But did you have any
fears that in that blizzard the Rams when they were
coming back late and had an opportunity that they were
going to pull one out or did you remain confident
that the Eagles were going to hold on there?

Speaker 7 (21:00):
I'm fearless, but I was shaken like a leaf on
a tree.

Speaker 6 (21:06):
So Scott, the Rams didn't did end up covering in
that game, whether you had the six and a half
or the seven there. And that just leads to kind
of a bigger trend in this playoffs that underdogs are
seven and three against the spread. Has that surprised you?
Have you been expecting that? Have you been scooping up points?
Where's your money been so far in the playoffs?

Speaker 7 (21:23):
Nothing surprises me when it comes to the NFL. As
you know, gentlemen, it's a three hour contract. I get on,
I get off. I do tend to lean on unders.
I do tend to lean on dogs. So that's been good.
But the bad news is regular season. It was a beating,
blood bath beating. As I'm a dog player generally speaking,
and it was a year for.

Speaker 5 (21:43):
The favorites, especially the second half.

Speaker 4 (21:47):
Yes, so that in mind, you know you obviously things
worked out well for you being a dog guy. As
it comes to the commanders, you know you mentioned Dan
Gamble there, Dan Campbell, the Lions. Look, I was a believer.
I was in the masses. Call me a square, right.

(22:07):
I mean a lot of people thought that ultimately the
Lions were going to get the job done, at least
get to this final four, if not the Super Bowl,
if not win the Super Bowl. It was a letdown
their quarterback among a litany of factors. I mean, really,
no one was perfect on that Detroit side. Everyone played
a role, felt like in the outcome of that game.
That said, seeing Detroit crumble in quite the way that

(22:31):
it did against Washington, was that for you? More about
the Lions losing or Jade and Daniels, dan Quinn and
company of that Commander's team just you know, maturing in
season as they have, pulling it out, stealing that game
and maybe make you think, boy, what can they do
against Philly?

Speaker 7 (22:53):
I would endear myself to your viewers and your audience
and the masses. If I were to say it was
Jade and Daniels and the Walking Commanders. But losers do
what losers do. They lose. I'm talking about the Detroit Lions,
a team that has never won anything in the history
of the world. The Lions simply did what they always do,

(23:14):
including last year when Dan Gamble was the MVP of
the championship game. It's not easy. It's not easy to
blow a seventeen point second half lead against the Niners,
but when you're Dan Campbell, anything is possible. The guy
doesn't understand third grade arithmetics. The guy goes for two

(23:35):
when he shouldn't, he always goes forward and fourth down
when he shouldn't, and more times than not, he gambles
and loses. But it's also sickening to see a.

Speaker 8 (23:43):
Grown man, a grown man cry.

Speaker 7 (23:48):
Cry during the postgame conference. It's annoying, it's sickening, and
the media eats it up. Oh, he cares about his team.
Give me Chuck Nole, give me Tom Landry, give me
Bill Belichick and the stoic, the man amongst men, and
the Reid.

Speaker 6 (24:07):
Speaking of Andy Reid his team, Well, Scott, it really
depends on when you got the number, because this game
ended in a very wonky way, with the Chiefs taking
the intentional safety twenty three to fourteen the final they
get the nine point win. Now, you could have either
had Houston plus nine and a half. You could have
had Kansas City minus eight and a half. The number
was all over the place last week and it lands

(24:29):
on nine. Where were you on this one? And that
was just one of the most bizarre gambling ends to
a game in recent memory.

Speaker 7 (24:39):
Not really, there was no gamble whatsoever. You don't question God,
and you don't crust question Andy Reid. The guy has
done more with excuse me x's and o's and in
game adjustments than anybody. He's the opposite of, say, a Tylo.
He's the opposite of a Dan Gamble. This guy, I've
seen him do it time and time and time again.
He always makes the right call. Doesn't mean they execute it,

(25:01):
but he almost always makes the right call. I've seen
too many Super Bowls where they're down at halftime. Just
a few short years ago against the Niners. Not last
year I was at that game, but a couple of
years prior to that, when they played Mike Shanahan on
another overrated, overhyped coach, he gave up twenty one unanswered
points to Andy Reid two years ago when the Eagles

(25:24):
led at halftime, Andy Reid made the adjustments and they
scored on every single possession in the second half. So
winners win, losers lose. I'm talking about the Chiefs win
and the Lions lose. It's not easy to be favored
by double digits coming off of buy at home and

(25:45):
to embarrass yourselves. I'm laughing. I'm hackening because it's payback
all year. All year, I've been saying the Lions were
over hyped, overrated in sportsbooks, getting into fights. Why because
I would say, listen and Super Bowl favorites. They may
not even be the best team in their division. And

(26:06):
you want to bet the Lions that even money to
win the conference when they could be a five seed. Well,
they pulled it out late and won the division on
the last game at home against the Vikings. But again,
I bet numbers, I bet value. I do not bet teams,
but I will bet against and Campbell.

Speaker 4 (26:25):
Scott Frichard hanging out here with us again, Prichard's picks.
Check that out prichard'spicks dot com. He is on Twitter
at prichard Wins. Scott will step beside. We'll come on
back look more at these two games in front of us.
We can also look ahead at some Super Bowl odds,
hypothetical matchups. Lines are out for that, any prop futures,
player futures that you may or may not be involved

(26:48):
in as well. We'll get to all of it on
the other side, locks, leans and everything in between.

Speaker 3 (26:56):
It says here we should work in teams. It wants
to best. I don't think you should be doing too
much gambling tonight. Alan gambling does anything about gambling.

Speaker 1 (27:06):
It's not gambling when you know you're gonna win. Now
back to Boston's only nightly betting show, The Gambler with
Adam Kaufman. Listen on the iHeartRadio app or your smart speaker.

Speaker 4 (27:25):
Back here with professional sports better, very accomplished one at that.
Scott Pritchard get his picks at prichard'spicks dot com. He's
on Twitter at prichard Wins. Scott Again, we're down to
the final four. You are very live for your Kansas City,
Philadelphia exacta. Let's start with the night game, the one
that is much anticipated for many. That is the Chiefs,

(27:48):
who I know you expect to win, laying one and
a half or two points against the Bills. There will
be plenty of people investing in Buffalo for this game,
certainly plenty of people, even if they're not invested, just
rooting on the Bills for the sheer interest in seeing
something different. I mentioned to Dan much earlier in the show,
you know Bill's commanders give it to me like, I mean,

(28:11):
it's not what I would have expected to be rooting
for at this time of the year if you had
asked me weeks or months ago. But again, variety. I'd
just like to see something different the Bills. You know,
I don't know if I really believe Washington can knock
off Philly, but the Bills did beat Kansas City earlier
this year. It was the one loss, legitimate loss that

(28:33):
Kansas City took. Then he of course had the you
know JB squad Nobody's playing in Week eighteen against Denver,
and so the Bills have been building their team for
years now, specifically to beat Kansas City at this time
of year. Again, I know, you're invested in the Chiefs.
I know where your wallet lies. But in terms of
just your belief in the Bills, in Josh Allen, in

(28:56):
that group, what are you expecting in this game?

Speaker 7 (29:00):
I love the analysis. You're obviously very sharp, very smart
when it comes to analysis. I'm going to remove my
fifty five to one odds when today it's three and
a half on the executive case playing Philly, I make
a living for three plus decades. But being objective and
putting my money where my mouth is, I have a
pretty big mouth. So I've bet ten to bet pretty

(29:21):
big money to your point. Yeah, congrats Buffalo. They won
the regular season matchup against Kansas City. This bad news.
Not a regular season game. The Bills world beaters at home.
Five and three on the road. Five and three are
very pedestrian five and three on the road. Josh Allens

(29:41):
had a great regular season. Again, more bad news, not
a regular season game. The Bills had their chance to
save face the Kansas City Chiefs. I love going with
proven winners. I can prove it. Seven consecutive AFC Championship games.
Are you kidding me? The Chiefs, people forget, had won

(30:03):
two games before Andy Reid showed up, and yeah, everyone
gets excited about Reid Mahomes Kelsey, Well, I get excited
about that defense. Last year, Buffalo had a chance at
home to redeem themselves, and they took the Apple because again,
that's what losers do. The Buffalo Bills have not done

(30:26):
squat since the early nineties, losing not one, not two,
not three, but four Super Bowls in a row. I
know because I went to three of those games, and
I just mailed it in the fourth one. But I'm
telling you, the Kansas City Chiefs perfect nine and oh
you've got nine and Oho taking on five and three.

(30:47):
You've got one team proven and the other team a
wanna be They're a wannabe Kansas City cheap money line.
See the cashier.

Speaker 6 (31:00):
I love that, Absolutely love that, Scott. Do you have
any lean on the total here in this one? It
opened up at forty nine. It's come down to forty
seven and a half. When these two teams met earlier
this season, we had fifty one was the total points here,
But the last few times that they have played, these
two teams have gone over. Even in the playoffs last
year as well, they got to fifty one points. So
curious if you think history repeats itself here on Sunday.

Speaker 7 (31:23):
I don't. I'm not playing it, but I guard against
that trend. And here's why. When you're talking about one
game to get to the Super Bowl, teams generally will
play it close to the vest. They don't want to.
You're not going to win a game in the first quarter,
but you can darn well lose it. So in this contest,

(31:43):
I expect it to be a knockdown, drag out affair
early and often. But you cannot keep these two racehorse
teams in the stable for very long, so nothing would
surprise me. I do not have an opinion on the total.

Speaker 4 (31:57):
Commander's Eagles Round three three. These teams very familiar with
one another. Obviously, they are division rivals. Not a lot
of people. And when I say that, I mean nobody
expected Washington to be here at this point in time.
And we're looking at you know, the spread reflects it
six six and a half totals forty seven and a half.
When these teams matched up back in mid November Week eleven,

(32:21):
it was a Philadelphia twenty six eighteen win that was
in Philly, so covered the number. But then we got
the shootout December twenty, second Week sixteen, a thirty six,
thirty three comeback win for Washington. I know you're invested
in the Eagles, but objectively, looking at this game again,
round three, no surprises either side. Has it play out.

Speaker 7 (32:46):
Again, I'm going to remove my Chiefs Eagles biased fifty
five to one, exact opinion. Okay, I'm going to do
that because that's what I forced myself to do. The
Washingtons they have won not one, not two, not three,
not four, but five games that they were dead in

(33:10):
the water. You know, they come back a rookie quarterback
in the NFC Championship game. That's who you want to
bet on. I love Jayden Daniels when he was at LSU.
He's had a phenomenal year. Not sold on dan Quinn,
but he proved me wrong. The Washington Commanders are for real.
But if you consistently and constantly have to come from

(33:33):
behind in the last two minutes, the last minute and
pull off a miracle, Hail Mary, it is a tough,
tough way to make a living. The MVP last week
to the Washington Commanders two co MVPs. Just like in
the Bills contest, it was Lamar Jackson and wide receiver

(33:55):
tight end Andrews. The Bills didn't beat anybody. Their Ravens
beat themselves with the Lions. Washington didn't beat them. The
Detroit Lions at home, took the apple and choked the
game away. So Washington on the road with the rookie
quarterback play the Eagles see the cashier.

Speaker 6 (34:15):
Yeh, Scott, I agree with you on this one. And
we've never seen a rookie quarterback even reach the Super Bowl,
let alone win one. I don't think we're seeing that
this year. The Eagles. They have the book on him,
They've already faced him twice. I think Philly's going to
be able to cover the six here with relative ease,
especially if Sakon's running the way he has been so
far in the playoffs.

Speaker 7 (34:35):
The guy who's on a mission, Barkley is the wild
card factor for sure. And like I said, it's a
feel good story for the Washington Commanders. They can lose
by thirty and they will feel good about themselves because
they had a tremendous season. The Eagles, if they lose
by a point, it's the end of the world. This
team is one year removed from the Super Bowl. They're proven,

(34:56):
they know what it takes. Love their defense, and let
us not forget. I'm not just now making this up.
I've heard this somewhere before. Defense wins championship Chief Eagles.
It's too easy. How how Dan Adam? How do these
sportsbooks stay open?

Speaker 5 (35:16):
It's amazing.

Speaker 4 (35:18):
You would think they'd just be ATMs those buildings in
Las Vegas. So Super Bowl odds on FanDuel, Philadelphia is
the favorite, believe it or not, plus one seventy five,
Kansas City plus two to ten, Buffalo plus two fifty.
And then obviously you get the real value, which is
only increased in value. I mean when those games went final,
I was looking at Washington plus seven hundred. Now it

(35:40):
is plus eight fifty eight and a half to one.
If you want to invest in the Commanders to win
two more games, effectively, that's what you're doing at this
point in time. But humor me on this, Scott. We
have hypothetical lines out which, of course, if you were
to invest in them, they void if they don't happen.
But we have Bill's Commanders. Bills would be laying four

(36:01):
and a half same line that the Chiefs would be
laying against the Commanders. The other outcomes Bill's Eagles, Chiefs
Eagles one and a half point spreads. Both times, the
AFC is the favorite, which I find interesting simply because
again I just told you that these Super Bowl odds
overall have Philadelphia as the favorite, and yet in every

(36:24):
scenario the AFC is favored to win the Super Bowl
on these hypothetical lines, What do you make of these
any that you like right now?

Speaker 7 (36:33):
Yeah? In fact, it makes perfect sense mathematically because the
AFC will be a small favorite no matter who they play.
And even though the Eagles are the favorite right now,
if you want to better, that's simply because they have
an easier path, an easier road. They are projected to
win by six and a half to seven points with
the other game for all intent and purpose, gentlemen, as

(36:53):
seen as a coin toss. So you can't win if
you don't get there, and so the Eagles will have
a much easier time. I'm getting there, But forget the
fact that they're a favorite today. When they get there
and they're taking on Kansas City, they will be a dog,
and for good reason.

Speaker 6 (37:11):
So, Scott, I'm curious what your strategy is if you
get your Chief's Eagles Super Bowl next week or in
a couple of weeks from now, and you have that
fifty five to one ticket, are you going to be
putting some money on Philly just to do a small
head or are you just all in on the Chiefs
beating the Eagles at that point.

Speaker 7 (37:27):
Well, I'm a numbers guy, math guy, finance guy. To me,
the bottom line is the bottom line. I checked my
ego at the door. I'm always going to never go
with how do I feel about a game? I'm always
going to go with how do I think about this
affairs of the heart. My heart has gotten me in
a world of trouble, but my mind seldom does so.

(37:49):
The good news is fifty five to one when the
real number is three three and a half today. That's
the good news. The bad news is I do not
have a cop with penny on Washington, a copper penny
on Philly, or a copper penny on Buffalo. But that's
about to change, Peter Brady and boys and girls members
of the jury, because I have to, and this is counterintuitive,

(38:12):
but I have to based on the kind of money
that I'm betting and getting back. You don't all just
let it ride. Because it's a football game times one,
times two, times three, anything canon will happen, so I
have to protect myself. But all you need to know
is that you're getting fifty five to one when the
real number today is three and a half to one.
I can bet. I'll probably go two thirds Washington plus seven,

(38:37):
looking for a middle down the don't down the middle
salt of the riddle. I don't want to give anything
to the sportsbooks. And then I'll bet a third of
my perceived bank roll for this weekend on the money
line on Washington, and then I'm going to parlay that
and then if then when the Buffalo Kansas City game,

(38:58):
it's pretty much the same scenario to where I will
allocate half of everything. And I don't want to get
into too many details because they can already tell I've
lost after audience, especially if you're dealing with people that
don't do this professionally and or do this for a living.
But I'll look at playing the Bills at plus two
and a half, maybe still a three by kickoff two

(39:20):
thirds and then a third on the money line with
Buffalo and again hoping that those two plays lose, meaning Washington,
maybe I'll get the middle, meaning Buffalo, but maybe getting
the middle and then I win even more money. And
then in the championship game, Kansas City is a small favorite.
I'll be all over silly for half of my winnings,

(39:41):
half of my winnings net. So yeah, I have to
at this point. But still, if you're asking me who's
going to win the Super Bowl, I have no idea.
I have less than none. It goes back to betting numbers,
betting value, betting teams. It's a big puzzle seeing it

(40:01):
before it happens. But to be in this position, I
did the same thing a year ago in exacta. And
I'm not saying bet exact is because no one's going
to be able to get the numbers that I get.
But going to the Super Bowl last year, I paid
ninety three hundred dollars for the ticket and it was
one of the best days of my life because life,
because I had Kansas City. I had two things. I'm

(40:24):
just going to explain this to you and then I'll
let you go on. Baltimore to win the Conference last
year at fifteen to one was my bed in September.
But I'm thinking, okay, I'm going to be seated one
months later. If it's not Baltimore, who's it going to be,
It's going to be KC. So I bet KC. But
I don't want KC at three to one, four to one,
so the conference, I want KC in an exacta against

(40:46):
the Niners at seventeen to one winter Winter Steak and
lobster dinner. But my head the same day, same sports book,
the second best number was twelve to one. I got
seventeen to one on the Niners beat the Chiefs. So
that's why I went to the game and took it
on the chin and paid ninety three hundred dollars for
the ticket, and I couldn't lose because I had seventeen

(41:08):
to one on both teams. This year, I've got fifty
five to one of the Chiefs to beat the Eagles
and not a copper penny on Philly, so I have
to So I was expecting the Lions would win, but
Dan Campbell overrated doing what the Lions do. I caught
a break, so I got a reprieve because I would
be hedging on the Lions. But the key is most

(41:29):
people make the mistake, guys, of hedging too early. I'm
not that guy. But now is the time, Now is
the time.

Speaker 5 (41:37):
Do you plan to go to the game or is
that to be deterbed?

Speaker 7 (41:40):
No? No, no, no. Last year, also the game was
in Vegas. I didn't have to worry about airfare, didn't
have to worry abot accommodations, didn't have to worry about
a car rental. But yeah, I've been to seven Super
Bowls and yeah, in this case, no, in fact, because probably,
I mean, I'll just balance the action to where I
might win a little bit more on KC. But I'm

(42:02):
making a ton on silly because I'm hedging it back.
I'm getting put. Let's just say these two teams win
and I'm getting a plus plus. I'm getting instead of
seventeen to one and seventeen to one last year on
San fran and the KC, this year, I'm getting plus
fifty five to one and maybe plus a book forty
on the money line the other way on the Eagles.
So it's just a great spot to be in.

Speaker 5 (42:24):
Fascinating stuff.

Speaker 4 (42:25):
Again, a lot of numbers involved in I say, what
we do, what we talk about, really what Scott does.
Make sure you check him out, you know, subscribe to
the Picks get his insights pritchard'spicks dot com. You can
find him on Twitter as well at pritchard Wins. Has
shows that he posts to YouTube and social media. You
should check those out. Scott always a pleasure man rooting

(42:47):
for well. I mean, look, a Boston area guy can't
root for the Chiefs because we don't want Patrick Mahomes
to really get himself into that Tom Brady discussion. But
if I remove my bias and objectivity and all of that,
just look at it here, I will root for you
and your wallet, my friend.

Speaker 3 (43:06):
I'm gonna win either way.

Speaker 7 (43:07):
I just want a lot more to come through. But
I love you and Adam and Dan. You guys are
the best of the best. And I have family and
friends in your area and everyone speaks highly of the
two of you.

Speaker 5 (43:21):
Oh greatly appreciate that, Scott, and yeah, I have him.
Keep on tuning in.

Speaker 4 (43:26):
We'll all try and win some money together again. Scott
Pritchard professional better out there in Vegas, good friend of
the program. We'll have Mackreil soon, much more football to discuss.
We'll get to some official show futures updates there, What
hit what didn't, what's still alive? As far as what
we've given out for the postseason, as we are down
to four teams, and do we add anything, do we

(43:48):
attack anything else on We'll get into it.

Speaker 1 (43:50):
On the other side, did someone jerk the People's parlay?

Speaker 4 (43:55):
If someone has to be the jerk, I hope it's
you or the guests.

Speaker 5 (43:59):
I don't want to be the r I don't want
anyone to. I pray it to you.

Speaker 4 (44:02):
I would like us all to hit all of our
plays every single night. But if someone's got to be
the jerk, I don't want to be the jerk. I
don't want to be the one that ruins it.

Speaker 6 (44:09):
No one likes being that guy.

Speaker 1 (44:10):
Go with your gut and lock into Boston's only nightly
sports gambling show.

Speaker 6 (44:16):
Message to our listeners the second Adam asks a guest
about their opinion on his leg of the parlay.

Speaker 1 (44:21):
Take the opposite Big Gambler with Adam Kaufman returns now on.

Speaker 2 (44:26):
WRKO and the iHeartRadio app.

Speaker 5 (44:31):
All right, thanks once again to Scott Richard Richard'spicks.

Speaker 4 (44:34):
Dot Com Richard Wins on Twitter.

Speaker 5 (44:37):
We always enjoy having Scott with us.

Speaker 4 (44:39):
That was a deep dive into the math of how
to explore hedging, which I think was just it was
such a valuable conversation Dan, I realize, as he noted,
you know, I'm not in his position.

Speaker 5 (44:52):
You're not in his position. I'm sure you know.

Speaker 4 (44:55):
None of our listeners are probably in his position where
you're sitting there holding that fifty one exacta of Kansas
City against Philadelphia. But to be able to get into
his brain a little bit there and just look at
the hypotheticals of Okay, if I had this, or if
I ever found myself in a similar type of situation,

(45:16):
how does one hedge a Super Bowl EXACTA. It's not
something I've ever spent a lot of time thinking about,
because I haven't been live at this point where you've
got four teams left and two of them in the dance,
one per conference obviously, but just a really enlightening conversation.

Speaker 6 (45:33):
Yeah, how early he's starting and he's getting out in
front of it now this week, you know, to buy
in a little bit on Buffalo and Washington kind of
have to, right, yeah, in case one of those teams
screws it up for him next week. So very interesting,
and then obviously I would assume if he does get
the Kansas City Philly matchup that he'll be going heavily
on a sidebit on the on the Eagles, on the
money line at a plus money number too, because what

(45:54):
they'll begin what was the number you said, like super.

Speaker 5 (45:57):
Bowl four and a half?

Speaker 6 (45:58):
Four and a half, Yeah, that'll be an nice money line.

Speaker 3 (46:01):
Pad.

Speaker 4 (46:01):
So the hypothetical matchup, if he gets the matchup, it is.

Speaker 6 (46:08):
One and a half.

Speaker 4 (46:08):
Well, well, in that Kansas City Philly would be one
and a half. Yes, sorry, Kansas City Washington is four
and a half, right, so he'd be looking at even money.
Plus one hundred is roughly what the line would be
in that situation. If it's Washington, obviously it's fifty five
to one is dead. But he'll have, you know, hedged

(46:29):
his way there in some form as he talked about,
that's plus one eighty four, so almost two to one. Yeah,
interesting stuff. It's good to get into the math some
of these conversations. But Super Bowl and playoff futures in general,
so we have given out many NFL futures over the
course of really going back to the summertime, and you know,

(46:54):
all the way through. Cave gave out some new futures
last week even group plays dance, specifically Brian whoever. We
have right now six futures that are technically live. Two
of those are on the awards market that are not
going to win. Marvin Harrison Offensive Rookie of the Year
not going to happen. Aaron Rodgers Comeback Player of the Year,

(47:17):
definitely not going to happen. So there are four that
are realistic. Josh Allen MVP plus eight fifty your play
gave it out all the way back in the summertime.
And then others that have been more recent bills to
win the conference. Plus three hundred on MGM, James Cook

(47:38):
two hundred plus rushing yards plus two to ten on DraftKings,
Travis Kelce three plus receiving touchdowns, should have had two
in that first game. Yeah, plus eight fifty on FanDuel.
That one be going real well right now. But we
did get a nice one in over the weekend.

Speaker 6 (47:56):
Yeah, Derrick Henry picked up his third rushing touchdown. That's
nice plus three eight cash, which makes up for the
three lines futures that all died. Yeah, there was a
second though that I thought asb Sam Brown was going
to get to two hundred by himself on Saturday night. Right,
he was real close, he got to one hundred and
thirty seven, but yeah, so that one died. Sam Laporta

(48:17):
caught a touchdown, but we needed three from him or
to be the receiving touchdown leader. He is not even
doesn't even have a share of that as both Rashad
Bateman and Terry McLaurin. All right, two, So those three
futures died, and then Brian's Rams ticket also died as well.
So minus point two units on the futures when it
comes to this past weekend. But could be a very
nice weekend coming up. If we get a Buffalo win,

(48:39):
thirteen rushing yards out of James Cook and two touchdowns
out of Travis Kelsey, we should see what that parlay
is on the side.

Speaker 4 (48:45):
By the way, Yeah, just a little well, I can,
I'm sitting on FanDuel I can.

Speaker 5 (48:50):
Yes, so I could build something out here.

Speaker 6 (48:51):
So just James Cook twenty five rushing yards.

Speaker 5 (48:55):
Right, obviously a Buffalo win.

Speaker 6 (48:56):
Buffalo on the money line, and two touchdowns out of Kelsey.

Speaker 4 (49:00):
Let's see, just for giggles, we're the two touchdown scores,
all right, Kelsey and then alternate rushing for Cook twenty five. Okay,
that is Cook doesn't do much for that. I thought

(49:20):
it was going to elevate it a little bit more so. Still,
it is almost twenty nine to one. Really plus twenty
eight eighty six Bill's money line Kelsey two touchdowns, Cook
twenty five rushing.

Speaker 6 (49:33):
It's not bad.

Speaker 5 (49:33):
Nope, show official.

Speaker 6 (49:35):
I'm just kidding. Actually, I was gonna say, what about
like a little quarter unit play?

Speaker 5 (49:39):
Yeah, I mean we could mess around because.

Speaker 6 (49:42):
Well, I mean plus eight fifty plus two, So that's
we could get a nice plus thirteen point six unit
swing if all three of those plays hit on their own. Yep,
could really get greedy and go after it. But something
maybe we could talk a little more about as the
week out.

Speaker 4 (49:58):
Yeah, we can explore that those lines probably aren't going anywhere.

Speaker 6 (50:01):
I have somehow James Cook finishes at twelve rushing yards,
but come.

Speaker 4 (50:06):
On, Kelsey got in there twice and the Bills won
Cook on twenty four.

Speaker 6 (50:10):
So when it comes to what's like left and remaining
obviously just three games, there's not a ton here. But
looking at FanDuel, if you head over to the playoff
milestone tab, I do think there's a couple interesting ones
here that I wouldn't mind investing in. And I do
actually really like this first one. That's Saquon to reach
four rushing touchdowns in the playoffs. He's at two right now.
He had two against the Rams. Him to get to

(50:32):
four rushing touchdowns is a nice plus one seventy five
on FanDuel. I think this is a good route to go.
Even if he was to get this this weekend. Saquon
to get two touchdowns in this game is only plus
two twenty Like that's how like that That's just ridiculous
for someone to get in the end Zon twice. So
we're not losing a ton of value there, sure, But
even so, I fully expect Philadelphia to win on Sunday.

(50:55):
So I do think we're gonna have a two games.

Speaker 5 (50:57):
Did you fully expect to try to win?

Speaker 6 (50:59):
I did?

Speaker 4 (51:01):
But this is just this is just just throwing out
the whole any given Sunday thing, you know.

Speaker 5 (51:05):
True.

Speaker 6 (51:05):
But also, as Scott was talking about, Detroit is a
loser franchise, losers loose.

Speaker 5 (51:12):
We did hear that, yeah.

Speaker 6 (51:14):
Once or twice? Yeah, And I'm just really big on
the rookie quarterback has never made the super Bowl before. Yeah,
I do think this bubble bursts that that is it
is literally true. What you just said is not false.
Where I take some exception, not to you, but to
like because people want it like you're gonna hear that NonStop. Right,

(51:34):
There's like four quarterbacks that have ever started the championship game, right,
and our buddy Sean King is one of them.

Speaker 5 (51:40):
By the way, there you go.

Speaker 4 (51:41):
But but I feel like it needs to at least
be acknowledged. And this isn't even me being a homer.
Tom Brady in two thousand and one, yes it was
year two technically year two, but in the year two
thousand he threw three passes the entire season. Sure to me,
he was a rookie, that's all I'm saying. Well, I

(52:03):
realize he was literally a rookie.

Speaker 6 (52:04):
Well, if you want to go with that, rote two,
Tom Brady did not get them to the Super Bowl,
Drew bloodsoe did.

Speaker 5 (52:10):
That's fair, fair, that's a great point. So but it's
true eight for anyone doesn't know.

Speaker 4 (52:17):
If you haven't heard it yet, you will a rookie
quarterback has never won, never even appeared in a Super Bowl,
or at least never started. Maybe there's been I'm sure
there's yeah, Jimmy g Yeah, I'm sure there's been plenty
on the backup, Yeah against Seattle, but never started. But anyways,
back to Saquon here. He has two touchdowns in each
of the two meetings with Washington already this season. Why

(52:41):
not go three for three?

Speaker 6 (52:42):
Sure could do that. I do expect him to get
in the end zone at least once. He's minus two
twenty I think, just to get for an any time
touchdown score. So you'll see that is a very popular builder,
leg I'm sure.

Speaker 3 (52:52):
Uh.

Speaker 6 (52:52):
And then yeah, like I said, I expect Philly to win.
I expect him to get to the Super Bowl. I
expect Saquon Barkley to be a big part of that.
I think he's going to get to four rushing touch
downs in a plus one seventy five. I think that's
a decent number.

Speaker 7 (53:03):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (53:03):
Anyone who invests against Barkley at this point, I mean,
you're crazy, He's it's so yeah. That one has my
support at plus one seventy five. And that's the best
odds available.

Speaker 6 (53:15):
It is FANDUL actually is the only book with that up. Interesting, Okay,
so I think we locked that in tonight.

Speaker 4 (53:19):
Sure, I'm good with that, and I know we've got
to break in a moment here to get to our
bank roll repairs.

Speaker 5 (53:24):
But was there another you wanted to throw out? Or
we could do it later.

Speaker 6 (53:27):
We can do it later. I was looking at maybe
Dallas Goddard to get the two hundred receiving yards, but
he's a little over one hundred right now, and it
would just make sense to just kind of do it
like an alt leg instead.

Speaker 4 (53:37):
Yeah, all right, we will step aside when we come
on back bank row repairs for your Wednesday.

Speaker 1 (53:43):
Now back to the Gambler with Adam Kaufman on six
eighty w RKO, streaming live on the iHeartRadio app, or
tell your smart speaker to play w RKO on iHeartRadio.
It's time for your bank roll repair, powered by today's Collision.

Speaker 4 (54:03):
Now Artificial Show plays. Let's get to some bank roll repairs.
As far as where we stand right now, Dan, we're
both in a sweat at the moment, I need the
Nuggets up by ten mid second quarter as well as
Texas the anticipated sweaty one currently trailing by two points

(54:26):
with seven minutes left against Missouri. Just need them on
the money line. That would cash a plus one twenty four.
If we can get the both of those home, you
have two out of four in already. One has not
even tipped, that is UNLV. But you need Iowa down
by six with about two minutes.

Speaker 6 (54:41):
Left, down four with a minute and change. Perfect, So
and it's been a cold shooting night. Hopefully they're heating
up now. And can I close the gap here on Minnesota.
Iowa is an eight and a half point favorite tonight
at home as well.

Speaker 5 (54:54):
All right, what do you have for tomorrow?

Speaker 6 (54:55):
All right? Right back to college basketball? Just three legs
this time. Let's go North Texas, Saint John and UNC
Greensboro all on the money line plus one oh nine
on DraftKings.

Speaker 4 (55:05):
I'm gonna give you a it's pretty close to even
money minus one oh two on Caesar's, but considerably most
everywhere else we're looking at like minus one twenty minus
one thirty. Caesar's is the place here in terms of
the value in the line minus one oh two. Three
legs as well. One in college that is Florida good
favorite on the road at South Carolina, and then two

(55:26):
NBA legs Phoenix in Brooklyn, of course, Nets played tonight
lost to the Knicks did sit some guys. They may
play tomorrow, we'll see. Sons are still the better team,
and the Celtics at LA against the Clippers, taking them
on the money line. Already, Kawhi Leonard's been ruled out,
Zoobots has been ruled out. Powell is questionable, Harden is questionable.

(55:50):
The Celtics do have their concerns. Both Holiday and Horford
are questionable. So who knows what we're going to get
out there in terms of personnel. But I like the
Celtics in this spock quite a bit, maybe not necessarily
enough to take them with the number, with the inconsistent play.
I know they're coming up blowing the doors against the Warriors.
We'll take Suns Celtics Gators minus one oh two on Caesars.

Speaker 6 (56:12):
I was gonna say, you worried at all about the Celtics,
not of haven't they haven't won back to back games
in like a month something.

Speaker 4 (56:19):
Used to be. They never lost too in a row.
Definitely three in a row, buth, Yeah, how can you
not be concerned? All Right, we're gonna come on back.
We'll talk through that. Should we be concerned? Jim Turvy
roto Grinders will join.

Speaker 1 (56:31):
Us sweat your bets with Boston's only nightly betting.

Speaker 2 (56:37):
Show, Gambling. I try to keep the gambling two animal,
How do you do that? But being good? At The
Gambler with Adam Kaufman.

Speaker 1 (56:46):
Streaming live on the iHeartRadio app. Miss a moment, Subscribe
to the podcast. Back to Adam Kaufman and Dan Watkins.

Speaker 4 (57:01):
Third and final hour Tonight The Gambler with Adam Kaufman
Back with you. A lot of good football talk in
that second hour of the program. Scott Pritchard joined us.
Of course, Professional Las Vegas Better our NFL review preview.
There will be lots of NFL conversation in the coming
days getting ready for Championship Sunday Conference championship games. Commanders Eagles,

(57:24):
Bill's Cheaps will break them down with media members from
each city as well as we've been doing for a
couple of weeks with these playoffs. I'm gonna miss it
when football is over down, I don't know what we're
gonna do.

Speaker 6 (57:35):
Yeah, just three games left to go. It's sad, but
I don't know. I'm sure we'll be looking at futures
or something like that for next season already, you know,
in a couple of weeks, so.

Speaker 5 (57:44):
We'll be doing that.

Speaker 4 (57:44):
We'll be who knows, maybe maybe we'll be betting the
new women's three on three unrivaled league.

Speaker 5 (57:53):
There you go, anything's possible. I'll tell you what.

Speaker 4 (57:56):
A guy who's made me a fair sum of money,
a decent chunk of chat, you know, cash betting in
the world of the WNBA. I know they're not in
season right now, but this guy's pretty good on the
men's side as well. Jim Turvy, who of course is
a analyst and writer over at Rono Grinders. He's part

(58:17):
of the Bets she Wins Discord. He is out there
trying to just make people money at every turn that
he can, even again jumping in with this unrivaled league
that my buddy Brendan glas Sheen is calling games at
on Twitter at Turvy Bets, Jim, welcome back.

Speaker 3 (58:34):
How are you good? Good? How are you? I love
hearing about the unrivaled awesome seeing Glassen on the College.
He's been killing it, man, it's been it's been really
fun to watch it. It's been a blast seeing him
as the play by play guy there.

Speaker 4 (58:47):
Yeah, he's the voice, he's the guy. Tell me real
quick before we get to the NBA because we have
a good slate in front of us tomorrow, a couple
of games that are in progress right now. What do
people know or have to know about this league? I
know very little about the league.

Speaker 5 (59:00):
I haven't.

Speaker 4 (59:01):
I there's one bet that I have even placed on it,
which was Prize Picks, just tailing something that you put
out there. It hit, so I was happy about that,
But I have not on my own I bet this league.
I wouldn't know the first thing about handicapping this league.
How long does it run? Is it entirely in Florida?
How many teams? What are the details here?

Speaker 3 (59:22):
Yeah, so it's two months, is basically so. I started this.
I think it started January seventeenth, runs to March seventeenth. Sixteens,
six players on each team. It's a three on three league.
They played full court, unlike most three on three, but
it's a three quarters court. But because they're playing full
court three on three, you really need to be in

(59:42):
really good shape. And it's already kind of shown a
couple of teams. You know, Brittany Grinder's in this league.
Brittany Grinder's great in the WNBA. Her game doesn't translate
quite as well to a wide open three on three
full court. So that was one of my big things
coming into the season was I think the Phantom who
were being price as the favorites because they had Sabrina
and they had Rickey Grinder. It's some big names. I

(01:00:05):
was like, you know, I'm a little more skeptical of them.
So far, they're owing to they look pretty dicey. The
laces look really good. They're two and ozer right now.
The vinyl have looked pretty good. They got Teresa Weatherspoon
as the coach, So a lot of famillion names for
anyone out there who knows the W. NBA thirty six
players in total all coming over from the W and

(01:00:25):
most of the top town doesn't that Asia Wilson doesn't
have Kaitlin Clark, doesn't have John cuel Jones. But other
than that, pretty much all of the big names from
the W are over there. It's been a blast to
watch the first couple of times. First couple so they
had his first weekend. They played Friday, Saturday, Monday, all
the games in Miami, so there's no traveler or anything.
And yeah, like you said, it's been so far, at

(01:00:46):
least It's been pretty pretty good financially as well, been
relatively soft market, especially if you know you're doing with
some of the players and some of the rules they
have there.

Speaker 4 (01:00:56):
I don't know why Caitlyn Clark sat this one out,
just could just couldn't pass up opportunity to sit with
Taylor Swift up in the bottom stocking game.

Speaker 6 (01:01:03):
Stuck stuck in casey.

Speaker 5 (01:01:05):
I guess.

Speaker 3 (01:01:05):
So she had her big, her big, her big debut
there in the FL I honestly think I don't know
if she she might play in the future, but she had.
If you remember she had that crazy run in March
Madness and then had like a week off and then
w NBA C training started, I think she was like,
I need time to breathe. I wouldn't be surprised if
down the line, if this, if this league gets pretty popular,

(01:01:27):
if she does end up playing, I think she just
wanted to breathe her and I can't honestly can't really
blame her on how busy here had been.

Speaker 4 (01:01:34):
Dan she got the you know, the Olympic break. She
wasn't asked to be part of that. There you go, Yeah,
three weeks off in August, right, all right, let's go
to the NBA here, and today it was kind of
a weird day, and I know there were a couple
of games still going, but five games, four double digit favorites.
A lot of people just sort of scoffing at the
slate not betting it. I mean, there's always money to

(01:01:56):
be made there, whether you want to invest in the
prop market or parlays some favorites together.

Speaker 5 (01:02:00):
Hope they don't screw it up. The heat, for instance,
after Tyler.

Speaker 4 (01:02:03):
Hero was ruled out, they did screw it up if
you built some sort of a mega money line parlay.
But the Knicks, it wasn't easy. I mean they did
trail late, eked it out against the Nets, a game
they should have won.

Speaker 5 (01:02:14):
Handedly. The Nuggets, the Lakers, the other grapy favorites.

Speaker 4 (01:02:17):
They are up Nuggets at halftime, Lakers at the end
of one quarter right now. But as we look toward tomorrow,
a team that's been screwed up money line parlays and
you know, pretty much everything else of late is our
Boston Celtics here, who tomorrow are a massive favorite against
a shorthanded Clippers team. Looks like they're laying about nine
points right now coming off that forty point win at

(01:02:40):
the Warriors. The Celtics out west on this road trip.
They've got dates with the Clippers, the Lakers, the Mavericks
taking them through Saturday.

Speaker 5 (01:02:49):
But we have now seen nine straight games. I think
it is alternating wins and losses. Going back to January third,
there has been no consistency with this team whatsoever. That
in mind, how would you approach tomorrow night's game?

Speaker 3 (01:03:05):
Tomorrow night, just looking at the injury reports. We have
the injury report out for these two teams, it's it's
questioned marks galore. So you mentioned short haanded Clippers, So
Zoo Botch is out for the Clippers. Kawhi Leonard we
know will be out for injury management. But then they
have four guys questionable, including Pardon and Norm Powell. So
their two biggest names that you know might be playing,

(01:03:26):
we have question marks on them. For the Celtics, you know,
they they have been mostly healthy lately. They've got Drew
and Al Horford who they've been kind of finding rest
spots for here and there. They're both questionable. So to me,
this could look entirely different come tomorrow night when when
this game actually tips off. If if we know Zooboch
and Kawhi are out. It could be one of those

(01:03:47):
games we see this sometimes in the NBA. This isn't
like a big national game. We could just see them
make you know what, let's let's get everyone a little
restive about But Tom and Chris Dunn are also questionable
for tomorrow. It could be one of those games where
they just fold in, get everyone a day rest, and
this you know, minus double digits or almost double digit
number makes sense. The flip side of it is Drew

(01:04:08):
and Now get ruled out, James Harden and Norm Powell
get ruled in along with Chris Dunn, who's you know,
very important defender for them, and suddenly I'd be, you know,
jumping all over the Clippers. So it's a lot of
unknowns for this game. It's really hard to know when
he had six guys and the six rotation guys in
total between the two teams questionable right now. If I
had to guess, I would lean towards the Clippers playing

(01:04:30):
their guys, and I would probably lean towards you know,
Celtics money line. I wouldn't go as far as the
Clippers my line, I'll say that, But like I was
I would take the points with the Clippers if it's
stuck at this number and they had a bunch of
their guys in, But the number is probably going to
move if we see all those guys play for the Clippers.

Speaker 6 (01:04:46):
Jim, the total in this one's moved quite a bit already.
It opened up at two twenty. It's down to two
sixteen and a half on FANDLE at this point, So
that's more than a full possession that they've already taken
off the board. Here, would you look towards the under
or has it gone too far at this point?

Speaker 3 (01:05:03):
You Again, I feel like this that that maybe could
be a little bit of a sign that the market
thinks that Hardened maybe doesn't play. He's the single most
important on to that number because A he's you know,
a great offensive talent. He kind of really drives the
Clippers offense, and b he's not a great defender, so
he helps the over in both ways. So you might
want to, you know, read between the lines a little bit.

(01:05:23):
It's also probably telling that Drew and Al, who are
two of the Boston you know, their best defenders are questionable.
So right now you know, again, these these things swing
off of all of these these questionables and the NBA,
not every questionable has made the same And if you
if you kind of read between the lines, if you
read what coaches are saying, if you read the comments
after the last game, you can sometimes get some hints.
Right now, I am just treating everything as truly questionable,

(01:05:47):
but I do think it's pretty notable that the that
the under is taking significant money. Maybe someone out there
knows something that you know, maybe it's a little more
likely that Harden is potentially going to sit based on
on that number.

Speaker 4 (01:06:00):
We have a back to back for the Nets, who
again lost, you know, in narrow fashion to the Knicks
earlier on their home floor. This contest, though, is against
the Sun staying at home, but against Phoenix again ten
point spread in this one with the road team favored.
Is this is spot where you know, based on the

(01:06:20):
guys that sat for Brooklyn tonight that because of back
to back, you're expecting the men probably put up a fight.
You know, maybe it's either you look at the plus
ten maybe even consider sprinkling the money line at almost
four to one, or do you like Phoenix to win
this thing?

Speaker 5 (01:06:35):
Handedly?

Speaker 3 (01:06:37):
Yeah, this was my favorite spread as I was looking
through the slate tomorrow was the Nets plus ten. So
the Suns, first of all, just say, I'm the worst
against the spread record this season. They're thirteen twenty seven
to two against the spread overall, ironically a tiny bit
better on the road eight and thirteen. But I will
say this, they have exactly one double digit win on
the road all season, and even that was exactly ten.

(01:06:59):
They're not really blowing teams out on the road the Nets, meanwhile,
or just really pesty. You mentioned they played tonight, so
it doesn't back to back. We also mentioned that with
the team like the Nets, there so many guys are
in and out with either rest or like a one
day nagging injury, that it doesn't impact them nearly as much.
But I think the kicker here is that the Suns
made this weird draft picks trade today, right, They kind

(01:07:21):
of set themselves up by trading it was like a
three for one on draft picks with the Jazz. Basically,
what they're trying to do is set up this Jimmy
Butler trade. So there's a decent chance that this deal
between now if you bet the plus ten and when
the game actually tips tomorrow, the Bradley Beal or whoever
it may be that they're You know that they're sending
out of town to get Jimmy back isn't on the team,

(01:07:42):
and we know that if the trade gets finalized, you're
not going to get Butler in time to play the game.
So there's a decent chance that the Suns will not
be at full strength, and certainly if they're able to
pull that deal off, there'll be certain players that are
not playing tomorrow. So I think that's a nice little
baked into that nets plus ten that it doesn't seem
like the market's really counting for right now.

Speaker 6 (01:08:02):
So we got a Western Conference Finals rematch tomorrow night
between the Timberwolves and the Mavericks. This one is in Dallas, Minnesota,
road favorite minus two, minus two and a half depending
on where you're looking here. But I'm immediately just drawn
right to the prop market JYM. Between Kyrie Irving sitting
at twenty five and a half points and Anthony Edwards
at twenty six and a half points, these two have

(01:08:23):
really just been well. Kyriecent has been ramping things up.
He just had a thirty seven point game where it
seems like he's full strength. Now and Anthony Edwards has
just been on an absolute tear here in the month
of January. Are you looking at either one of those
guys tomorrow night.

Speaker 3 (01:08:38):
Yeah, this is one of those games that nothing really
jumped out at me in relation to the market. I
do think it's it is you know. I know the
party line among sharps is often you know, don't get
the overs on star players. But I do think there
is something to be said for putting them actually in
a same game parlay together, because I do think sometimes
when star players are going up against each other at

(01:08:59):
ESPN game especially, will he'll lean into it sometimes and
you'll notice that, you know, if the guy on the
other side of the court is really going off an skins,
try and match him basket for basket for better and worse.
You know, honestly, sometimes those those shots kind of you know,
you'll end up seeing and go, you know, eight for
twenty four or something. But he'll definitely get the shots

(01:09:19):
up at least. So I think if you play those players,
will definitely want to parlay them. I wouldn't play them individually,
but if you did, like both guys to go thirty
plus and get like a nice little plus number on that.
I don't hate the idea of, you know, both guys
kind of bouncing off each other and what should be
a pretty pretty good close game. Yes you said, spread
up to I don't hate that at all.

Speaker 4 (01:09:39):
Jim Turvy hanging out with us Projections Analyst over Rotal
Grinders of Course, Action Network contributor Bets She Wins Discord,
as well as the podcast on Twitter at Turvy Bets
Jim stick around will come on back look at some
more of these games build out of people's parlay as well.

Speaker 2 (01:09:57):
Not every bet can be a winner.

Speaker 7 (01:09:58):
You have to win.

Speaker 2 (01:10:01):
You gotta have brains and you gotta have bulls. Hey
you got too much of one or not enough for
the other. But as long as you come out ahead,
green is green. Profit with us cash it cash.

Speaker 5 (01:10:12):
The plus eleven sixty.

Speaker 1 (01:10:14):
The Gambler with Adam Kauffman bind us online at w
r KO dot com, slash.

Speaker 4 (01:10:20):
Bet b hanging out with Jim Turvy here from roto
Grinder said, Uh, Jim, I'll ask you. I'm gonna I'm
gonna be selfish. As a host of the program, I
get to do this, I get to monitor my own

(01:10:41):
bets from time to time I.

Speaker 5 (01:10:43):
Have a parlay.

Speaker 4 (01:10:45):
Well, all right, never mind, never never mind, this was
this was feeling I mean, never say never, but this
was feeling worse like two minutes ago than it is
right now. I need eight rebounds out of Jokic tonight,
and he was sitting at three at halftime, but he
has three in the first two minutes of the third quarter,
so now he's at six. So I'm feeling a little
bit better than I was a second ago. These builder lays, man,

(01:11:09):
I tell you, they stress you out.

Speaker 5 (01:11:11):
We did get Texas home on our builder.

Speaker 4 (01:11:14):
We need the Nuggets to finish the job against the
Sixers tonight. They're up by thirteen the moment, Lakers leap
by ten. All right, So let's look toward tomorrow's some
more and we've got, I mean, a great game here,
at least on paper. Cavaliers Rockets in Houston, a matchup
of two of the top four teams in the NBA
standings wise, Cavaliers are obviously favored, looking at two points

(01:11:39):
and right around minus one thirty on the money line
is Cleveland the play, though, you know, does this feel
like the right investment this particular game, given that you know,
we know the Rockets. Obviously on the other side, they're frisky.

Speaker 3 (01:11:55):
Yeah, for sure. This was a game that I first
went to because it is the game that I'm going
to be the most drawn to watching. Wide smarts can
be really really unique combination of, you know, the the
truly elite offense that they have in Cleveland this season
and the banana's good defense they have in Houston. The
one thing I love there's uh for folks out there

(01:12:16):
looking for good betting tools on cleaning the glass. They
have they let you look at how teams do against
top ten defenses or top ten offenses. So I wanted
to look at how Cleveland did against top ten defenses
and how Houston did against top ten offenses. It's really
hoping that one of them would, you know, either struggle
or be amazing, and it would it would really pop

(01:12:36):
and be obvious which side to be on. Turns out
both are just really good. Houston has been excellent against
top ten offenses. Their defense has not slowed down at all.
They were one of the best against the spread teams
even against those top offenses. So I was like, oh,
maybe maybe Houston as an underdog to play here went
overlooked at Cleveland against top ten defenses. They are absolutely

(01:12:57):
best offense against top ten defenses. So I think that
this is really just a game. You know, maybe maybe
there'll be a prop that pops at some point, but
I think this is a game to just watch as
a basketball fan and enjoy. I think it's gonna be
a really good, you know, kind of combination of of,
like I said, an elite offense and league defense going
at each other. Tons of really fun players that you know,

(01:13:17):
for NBA fans who aren't you know, in the weeds
every day, you might not get to know and I'm
in Thompson until you watch a game like this. But
I mean some of the some of the folks on
both sides, really really good set of players. I'd probably
in a vacuum might lean towards the Calves, but Evan
Mobley has been incredibly important and for them, and he
isn't going to be on the floor, So I think
it's one to sit and watch. Unfortunately, nothing really popped

(01:13:40):
in what's going to be the game of the night
betting wise, but I think, you know, it should provide
enough use to to be a fun watch regardless.

Speaker 6 (01:13:47):
So Jim, you were talking last segment about how the
Suns are the worst team against the spread in the NBA. Well,
let's talk about the best team in the NBA against
the spread, the Oklahoma City Thunder. As it just feels
like this night, this team just covers every single night.
It feels like late They're laying seventeen and a half
points tomorrow night against the Utah Jazz at home. Insane

(01:14:07):
spread here by far the biggest of the night. But
I mean, I don't know how you how you could
even think about taking the points against Oklahoma City at
this point.

Speaker 3 (01:14:16):
Yeah, I think the way you would talk yourself into it.
So we'll get an injury report again. Right now, we've
got Jalen Williams, who is the Thunders you know, arguably
second best player this season is questionable, And with a
seventeen and a half point spread, this seems like a
place where you really don't want to, Like, why press
it with you know, a spread this big, you know
they're going to be the Jazz. I would sit him out.

(01:14:38):
So I think that you could talk yourself into seventeen
and a half. I think if you want to really
get ahead of that, Jalen Williams potentially sitting shay Is.
You know, she's been incredible lately in general, but his usage,
his rebounds is the sists all go up with Gelan
Williams off the court. So I think looking at a
shave pra or if you can target, you know, first half,

(01:14:58):
if we think that this is still going to believe
be a law, you know, with Yale and Williams, you
don't want to have to mess around with the second half.
Maybe shape points in the first quarter, shape points in
the first half. I will say, on the other side
of things, a player who's caught my eye lately Isaia
a Collier for the Jazz. He's a rookie moved into
the starting lineup, and his assists number has been absolutely crazy.

(01:15:18):
I want to see where this number opens up, though,
because if the book starts to react to you, he's
posted double digit assist these last few games. The Thunder
are one of the toughest teams. I mean, it's just
incredibly good defense and incredibly good defensive backcourt, incredibly good
defensive back court off the bench. Even so, even if
this is a blowout, he's going to be facing really
tough defenders all night. I might be looking at either

(01:15:39):
his assist under if they if they go a little
bit too high, or certainly maybe something like a turnovers
prop for a rookie going against this this thunder defense
that is just you know, on another level this season.

Speaker 4 (01:15:51):
To that end, are there any player trends that you've
just kind of been riding of late, you know, guys
in good spots, good opportunities, where as you noted the books,
they just haven't adjusted yet.

Speaker 3 (01:16:03):
Yeah, one of the there's there's a trio guys over
in Sacramento. So the Kings fired Mike Brown ten games ago,
the nine and one ever since and under under oh Man,
I'm thinking of Mike Bibby, who is not the head coach.
Who's who's our head coach here in Sacramento, Christy? Yeah,
different different nineties players. Under Christy, Malik Monk has been

(01:16:27):
in much more of a playmaker role, So I'm looking
at his assists have been pretty solid lately. In some bonus,
I don't know if this is as much tied to
you know, maybe an extra minute here or there, or
if there if he's telling him, you know, your number
one job is to cross scots. His rebounds have been insane,
So there's are a couple of props in Sacramento. They
play the Warriors tomorrow and what should be a pretty close,

(01:16:47):
tight game, so it's the premier Yes game game late
at night. Those are a couple I'm looking at, and
then we'll go over one that has really been popping
and that's that's been my best bet. Oh no, you know,
I've got one more for you. Well, that that I
was debating between. For the player props, Asar Thompson. He's
moved into starting lineup. He's been getting about twenty two
minutes a game lately. You can find four and a

(01:17:10):
half rebounds out there. It's a little bit juiced, but
I don't mind paying the Jews for this. He's been
doing really well cleaning the glass. The Hawks States played
the third fastest pace and so as a result they
allow fair amount of rebounds. That's actually gonna be a
pretty fun game as well. That Piston talks game. Both
teams are really improved this year and kind of just fun,
fun teams to watch with a lot of young talent.

(01:17:31):
Asar Thompson definitely among that. So yeah, over five and
a half you can get plus money as well, But
I kind of what I don't mind laying the juice
for that four and a half rebounds for a star.

Speaker 5 (01:17:44):
Want to mix in one more?

Speaker 7 (01:17:45):
Sure?

Speaker 6 (01:17:46):
Anything on the warrior side. You started talking about the
Kings a little bit there, but Steph Curry's been playing
really well as a late Looking at anything with him
or any of the other Golden State players.

Speaker 3 (01:17:56):
Yeah, nothing pops for for me. For Golden States, there're
gonna be one again without Draymond, without Minga, without Pizemski,
and without Kyle Anderson, so they are pretty shorthanded again.
They've been one of the hardest teams for me to
read this season. I feel like I've really struggled pinning
down you know what, curR Her has been kind of
a funky guy to try to project who he's given

(01:18:17):
his minutes to every night, and you know, with the Kings,
you know it's gonna be, you know, pretty high scoring games.
So theoretically that if you're someone who bets overs, it
could be a pretty interesting game. But from what I
was seeing out there in the prop market that nothing
was really catching by I think maybe, you know, theoretically
of Moses Moody type of guy, but it seems like
every time I'm on Moody, then kurzaggs and goes some

(01:18:38):
other directions. So I haven't been doing as many warriors
that's lately.

Speaker 4 (01:18:42):
All right, let us get ourselves to the people's parlay.
And we always like to bring up the stats for
better and for worse. But if memory serves, I think
Turvy hit his official straight last time he was on
with us. I can double check that. So the parlay
is one in five, your plays are one in five,

(01:19:03):
and the last time that you were on with us,
did we hit the whole thing?

Speaker 5 (01:19:09):
Let me see where is it?

Speaker 6 (01:19:10):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (01:19:10):
I think, Boy, it's been a little bit. Last time
you were part of a parlay was December tenth. At
least the show was the tenth, so the picks would
have been the eleventh. And yeah, I think the parlay hit,
didn't it?

Speaker 3 (01:19:27):
I I memory, sirs, I believe it? Did? I know?
I got off this night, and I think I think
the whole parlay hit if I remember correctly, Yeah.

Speaker 4 (01:19:34):
It was a plus four eighty three. Yeah, So all right,
let's make it two in a row here, fellas.

Speaker 5 (01:19:38):
Let's see what we can do.

Speaker 4 (01:19:40):
All right, Jim, I already know which direction you're going,
and I love the play tell the people.

Speaker 3 (01:19:48):
Yeah. So one of the few games we have not
talked about Pornets and Grizzly. This should be a really
fast paced game. So again, if you're an over is
better this is this is one to be intrigued by.
And it was a painful loss on this prop line game.
So I'm gonna go with Mark Williams over fifteen and
a half points. So last game met this, he made
to pick up four foulsand in the first half. He
made this shoot five of fourteen and he's still almost

(01:20:11):
cleared this number. So now he gets a very fast
paced Grizzlies defense. It is a good defense and a
good defender and Jaron Jackson Junior in the perimeter. But
they play at such a fast pace that they give
up the ninth most points in the league as a result.
So this number is sitting at fifteen and a half
because of a couple unlucky things here and there. But
now that Nick Richards is out of town, and now

(01:20:32):
that Mark Williams is back to fully healthy, he has
been really awesome. He's going to be you know, we're
projecting in road grinders for thirty minutes. If he's playing
thirty minutes. This honestly, this line should be more around
nineteen and a half. He's averaging fourteen and a half
points per game in around twenty two minutes this season.
So even if you you know, say, oh, in a
few more minutes, that's you know, you know, a few

(01:20:55):
more minutes against Tupper defender and stuff like that. Even
if you you regress to the mean a little bit,
his points per a minute are around twenty. And now
we're talking about a really fast paced game up and
down with with the Grizzlies. This mark this fifteen and
a half number. I I stone he will make it
that more. It keeps opening really low at the books
and then the betters vetted up books got a little

(01:21:16):
bit lucky last game with that with that foul trouble
and the and the poor shooting. But this is one
that when when you brought up, are there any that
you're you're going back to the well on? This is
one I may to go back to the well on
until they adjust appropriately to his minutes load and his
usage with Nick Richards, that sounds yeah.

Speaker 4 (01:21:34):
I've seen you and Delaira among others, really riding Mark Williams,
as you know of late and I like it a lot,
like I said, because especially I know he's not a
star player. This more kind of is it's a rule
of thumb that we like to apply to stars. But
given that foul trouble put four fouls in the first
seven minutes and and him having to play more conservative

(01:21:54):
last time.

Speaker 5 (01:21:55):
Out and still fit.

Speaker 4 (01:21:56):
I mean, he didn't hit his line, but still finish
with eleven, thirteen points, whatever it was. I very much
expect to bounce back out of Williams. So I like
your play a lot. Tomorrow night, Dan, what do you
have all right? Guys heading to college basketball? And I
love these, you know, finding these teams that are taking
on other schools that are coming in from across the country.
And we got a great spot tomorrow night with Stanford
welcoming in Miami. We're gonna lay the ten ten and

(01:22:19):
a half points with the Cardinal tomorrow night. Well one,
because Stanford's a really good basketball team. They played really well.
They had a really big win over North Carolina over
the over the weekend. They return home here and they
are taking on just an absolute dumpster fire of a
basketball program right now in the Miami Hurricanes. Their coach
quit on them right around Christmas Jibelerra Naga great. Since then,

(01:22:41):
Miami has yet to win a game. They have been
getting blown out consistently. They just gave up one hundred
and seventeen points and forty minutes against SMU over the weekend.
I don't think this is gonna be a good road
trip for the Canes, and I think it's gonna be
an ugly start for that tomorrow night. So let's go
with Stanford minus ten ten and a half.

Speaker 5 (01:22:57):
All right?

Speaker 4 (01:22:58):
I well, Dan, you know I love that play. I
was gonna use it as well. You were on it first,
I deferred, I backed off. I have another one though,
that I like almost as much, and that is South Florida.
I'm just gonna go money line spreads minus one one
and a half. Not gonna bother getting cute, just gonna
take them on the money line. South Florida against Charlotte.

(01:23:20):
You're looking at good offense versus bad defense. South Florida
averaging seventy eight points per game, does allow about seventy four.
But you know, Charlotte is allowing a boatload of points
and doesn't score with quite the reliability that South Florida does.
On the other side, you get into some of these

(01:23:40):
spread numbers as as well. Charlotte has failed to cover
the spread four of its last six. You have the
Bulls covering the spread in four of the last five.
Also again, I just think South Florida is the better team.
Look for a little bit of a bounce back. Hasn't
been as great of late. Record wise, these teams are comparable.
I like South Florida, think it's a better spot. So

(01:24:03):
putting these three plays together again, Stanford to cover South
Florida money line Mark Williams. Here's the deal. We have
plus five twenty five on Caesar's with everyone's numbers, or
plus six oh eight on fan duel with Williams at
sixteen and a half points as opposed to fifteen and

(01:24:23):
a half points. Jim, that's your pick. So that's your decision,
and we have no problem staying with the lower number.
If that's you know, quote unquote safer in your mind,
we don't need to chase.

Speaker 5 (01:24:35):
It's up to you.

Speaker 3 (01:24:37):
I say, we goes fifteen and a half with with
a guy who shoots threes. I'm more you know leaning's
going that odds to even. But with a guy like
Mark who's who's you know? He's going two by two
pretty often. I like sticking with that even number there
to get sixteen to cash.

Speaker 4 (01:24:51):
It makes a lot of sense, so plus five twenty five.
Thank you Dan for shopping around on Caesar's again South
Florida money Line Stanford to cover the number and Mark
Williams over fifteen and a half points. Jim Turvy again
a projections analyst over at Roto Grinders. Get him on
Twitter at Turvy Bets. Jim always appreciate when you hop
on man.

Speaker 5 (01:25:11):
Let's make it two in a row.

Speaker 3 (01:25:13):
Awesome, let's do it good chatting?

Speaker 4 (01:25:14):
All right, Well, come on back and take a look
at the Patriots new OC. Not officially, but the expectations.
Josh McDaniels is the man for the job. Have we
heard that before?

Speaker 2 (01:25:28):
Locks, leans and everything in between. It says here we
should work in teams.

Speaker 5 (01:25:35):
It wants to be my spinner.

Speaker 3 (01:25:37):
I don't think you should be doing too much gambling tonight, Alan.

Speaker 7 (01:25:40):
Gambling is anything about gambling, In fact, gambling when you
know you're gonna win. Yes.

Speaker 1 (01:25:45):
Now back to Boston's only nightly betting show, The.

Speaker 2 (01:25:49):
Gambler with Adam Kaufman.

Speaker 1 (01:25:51):
Listen on the iHeartRadio app or your smart speaker.

Speaker 4 (01:26:03):
It's always Wisconsin, Dan, always, always Wisconsin.

Speaker 6 (01:26:08):
Doesn't matter on them against him over under, absolutely brutal if.

Speaker 4 (01:26:15):
You're listening to the podcast as opposed to live. We
talked about this earlier with Rob Donaldson not part of
the podcasts, not because he said something inappropriate or something
simply because most of the conversation was previewing tonight's late games.
There's just no real value in that for you the listener,
unless you're listening live.

Speaker 5 (01:26:37):
Posted the day after.

Speaker 4 (01:26:39):
He gave out UCLA minus three and a half show
play his The Donaldson Experiment play, and we warned him
kind of a little bit, like a little casual little
warning saying like hey, I.

Speaker 6 (01:26:55):
Just want you to know, kind of jokingly but not
really yeah.

Speaker 5 (01:26:58):
Half joking, like just want to let you know.

Speaker 4 (01:27:02):
As Dan put it, bet all Wisconsin, bet against Wisconsin.
If Wisconsin's involved, whichever way we bet, it tends to
go the other way, which is why we have often
talked about banning Wisconsin bets on this show. So UCLA
up by four with how many seconds left?

Speaker 6 (01:27:22):
So this is what happens. Okay, ten seconds left, UCLA's up.

Speaker 5 (01:27:25):
Two needed minus three and a half.

Speaker 6 (01:27:27):
Yep, Wisconsin foul sends them to the line. Kid makes
both free throws. Six seconds left, Wisconsin driples the ball
up the court, hits a three pointer eighty four eighty three.
UCLA does end up going to the line one more time.
They make one out of the two and eighty five
eighty three the final we cashed and uncashed just like that.

(01:27:51):
Absolutely brutal every single time with Wisconsin. I think I
think we need to put the band back in place.

Speaker 4 (01:27:56):
Because this is just it's disgusting, feels like it needs
to go that way. I texted Rob, I just said, Wisconsin, Man,
it's always Wisconsin.

Speaker 6 (01:28:06):
Yep.

Speaker 4 (01:28:06):
He just says that's agonizing. Yeah, yep, welcome to our
world when the Badgers are involved. All right, we have
not really had an opportunity to weigh in on this.
We'll spend more time on it maybe tomorrow with the
Patriots guest as well. But the reports are out. There
are many that the Patriots apparently just today interviewed Josh

(01:28:32):
McDaniels for their offensive coordinator, but considered in house the
front runner, and he is the one who is expected
to get this job under Mike Vrabel of course new
oc third stint in New England in this.

Speaker 5 (01:28:45):
Job first without Bill Belichick. I think if you want
to look at this hire for one you.

Speaker 4 (01:28:56):
Fair or unfair, you have to throw out the majority
of his Patriots career because it involved Tom Brady. Tom
Brady is not here. So really all you're looking at
is a year with Cam Newton and the year with
Mac Jones, and then he left for the Raiders and
mac Castle and mac Castle but he Hastle was solid.

Speaker 6 (01:29:18):
But he had Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

Speaker 3 (01:29:20):
Fair.

Speaker 4 (01:29:21):
So listen, when mac Jones was a rookie for people,
I've brought this up before, but for anyone that doesn't remember,
this is not hyperbole. Coming out of that year when
Mac was a you know, fraud pro bowler, everybody said,
if you were doing a redraft right now, Mac Jones

(01:29:44):
is the best quarterback.

Speaker 5 (01:29:45):
In this class.

Speaker 7 (01:29:46):
Not.

Speaker 4 (01:29:48):
Well, I guess the only other one in the conversation,
you know who it has to be by default is
Trevor Lawrence.

Speaker 7 (01:29:54):
Right.

Speaker 4 (01:29:55):
The other guys none of them even have starting jobs.
Wilson Fields, Lance Lance Mills, Mills. Yeah, so only one
has maintained a starting job. Ironically, enough until he got
hurt and mac Jones replaced him. And that, of course
is Lawrence who has been paid handsomely. His contract is
a joke, but he's been paid handsomely to be the

(01:30:15):
guy in Jacksonville. McDaniels did a hell of a job
coaching up mac Jones. But I have heard people say,
and this is fair. If we're gonna sit here and
throw out the Tom Brady era, how do you not
just throw out the entire Bill Belichick era? You know,
like how much of McDaniels was just under the Belichick system.

Speaker 2 (01:30:38):
We don't know.

Speaker 4 (01:30:38):
And maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. I mean, obviously
he did not. You know, he coached up mac Jones,
and I want to give him that. And Cam Newton
was fine. I mean for a dude off the street
who shouldn't have.

Speaker 5 (01:30:49):
Been the league anymore.

Speaker 4 (01:30:50):
I couldn't throw but yeah, I mean it couldn't in years.
That wasn't new to the Patriots. But he didn't get
anything to Jared Stidham, you know, and he was supposed
to coach him up as well. You know, Stidham's gone
on elsewhere and including you know, the Raiders, and it

(01:31:11):
hasn't been good. So Drake May Mac Jones. These are
two different talents, obviously, two very different guys, different abilities.
I think that you know, like unquestionably Drake May is
is the higher ceiling player the I have no problem

(01:31:32):
with the higher and I know we got to break
in a second. I have no problem with the higher.
It's probably a good higher And if I'm not going
to be hypocritical Dan months ago, I remember seeing somebody
on Twitter like, you know Stradmeo and Alex van Pelt
right now, but imagine next year it's Mike Rabel and
Josh McDaniels, like, where do I sign?

Speaker 5 (01:31:49):
Oh my god, yes please.

Speaker 4 (01:31:51):
So in that sense, of course, upgrade, I'm excited about it,
and I do believe that he could potentially do.

Speaker 5 (01:31:58):
Wonders with Drake May.

Speaker 4 (01:32:01):
But much like Mike Rable, who also is the guy
that I wanted, just a really uninspired higher. It just
makes you wonder once again if there was ever even
really a search.

Speaker 6 (01:32:13):
Right But this time it's a little different because I
feel like this was the best option for the development
of Drake May when you look at all the guys
that are out there as OC candidates right now, I
think McDaniels is the best option. I think he's also
the continuity there for May and this offense. Josh isn't
going anywhere. This is probably his last. Sad to say,
but this is his last job probably. I don't think

(01:32:36):
he's getting hired anywhere else. Definitely not to be a
head coach again.

Speaker 4 (01:32:38):
He could be in if this goes well, he could
be an OC somewhere else. It's not a better fit,
but someone throws him a bag. You don't generally get
a round three as a head coach when the first
two went poorly.

Speaker 6 (01:32:47):
That miserably for sure. Yeah. And also with Derek Carr,
I think he had them as the twelfth best scoring
offense in twenty.

Speaker 5 (01:32:53):
Two I believe that is correct as well.

Speaker 6 (01:32:55):
Yeah, so that's not bad either. And don't forget I
mean he had the four games in twenty sixteen without
Brady where they went three and one, had Garoppolo ready
to go. I think this is the best option for
May and as long as they keeps, you know, surrounding
him with a better supporting cast, I do think things
will look a lot better and a lot more professional
next year.

Speaker 5 (01:33:14):
Has to and absolutely has to.

Speaker 4 (01:33:16):
I am excited to talk to some of our Patriots
guests and like I said, maybe we reach out to
sweet Feed, get James White and the show is a
guy that you know played for McDaniels, get some perspective
on what he can do to mentor a young quarterback.
Because it's interesting, I will say, at least in terms
of immediate expectation, it's nice to have a guy coming

(01:33:38):
in not unlike Rabel, knows what he's doing, done it before,
commanded the room, familiarity with the organization, all that stuff,
as opposed to kind of looking for the next like
you know, boy wonder Sean McVay, Mike McDaniel, twenty seven
year old you know, quote unquote guru who maybe it
goes great, but maybe it's a disaster.

Speaker 5 (01:34:00):
Yeah, you just don't know. All right, we gotta step aside.
We'll come on back, wrap up the show.

Speaker 2 (01:34:05):
Did someone jerk the people's parlay?

Speaker 4 (01:34:07):
If someone has to be the jerk, I hope it's
you or the guests.

Speaker 5 (01:34:11):
I don't want to be the jerk. No, I don't
want anyone.

Speaker 6 (01:34:13):
I pray it's you.

Speaker 4 (01:34:14):
I would like us all to hit all of our
plays every single night. But if someone's got to be
the jerk. I don't want to be the jerk. I
don't want to be the one that ruins it.

Speaker 6 (01:34:21):
No one likes being that guy.

Speaker 1 (01:34:22):
Go with your gut and lock into Boston's only nightly
sports gambling show.

Speaker 6 (01:34:28):
Message to our listeners the second Adam asks a guest
about their opinion on his leg of the parlay.

Speaker 5 (01:34:33):
Take the opposite.

Speaker 2 (01:34:34):
Big Gambler with Adam Kaufman returns now.

Speaker 1 (01:34:37):
On WRKO and the iHeartRadio app.

Speaker 5 (01:34:42):
Unfortunately, our green stream ends tonight.

Speaker 4 (01:34:46):
We will get my plus one twenty four bankfoll repair
if Denver does not blow a twenty point lead with
nine minutes left.

Speaker 5 (01:34:53):
Let's hope the Nuggets do not do that.

Speaker 4 (01:34:55):
But unfortunately Dan's bank boll repair and straight the group
play bridges over seventeen and a half points in Donaldson
with that UCLA freaking Wisconsin.

Speaker 5 (01:35:08):
So that didn't come home. So we're gonna lose a
few units on this.

Speaker 4 (01:35:11):
Show today, but we start a new tomorrow and hopefully
all goes well for all of our guests. For Dan
and Madam, we'll talk to you tomorrow.

Speaker 1 (01:35:22):
You've been listening to the Gambler with Adam Kaufman on
six't eighty WRKO Boston's first and only nightly sports betting show,
airing live Monday through Thursday nights now from nine to midnight.

Speaker 2 (01:35:37):
Listen on demand.

Speaker 1 (01:35:38):
Download The Gambler with Adam Kaufman podcast on the iHeartRadio app,
WRKO dot com, slash bet, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Speaker 2 (01:35:47):
Gambling Problem Hope is here.

Speaker 1 (01:35:49):
Call one eight hundred three two seven fifty to fifty
or visit Gambling Helpline MA dot org. Goodnight from the
Gamblers Studio.

Speaker 9 (01:36:12):
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Speaker 6 (01:37:11):
I added all my presets just like in my car.

Speaker 2 (01:37:14):
This is great

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