November 27, 2025 • 18 mins
NFL Daily's picks show is BACK for Week 13! A red-hot Gregg Rosenthal joins "The Model" Cynthia Frelund for the latest round of picks against the spread. Featured games include Rams at Panthers, Raiders at Chargers, Broncos at Commanders, Texans at Colts, Vikings at Seahawks and Jaguars at Titans.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're ready for some post
Thanksgiving winners. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesley
podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Freeland for.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
A special holiday edition of our Picks.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
That was the Colleen Wolf voice. We used to call
this man versus model. It was your computer model. You're
the busiest woman.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
Not even this week. No, it's we all weird schedule,
so we have to it's the most fun week of
the year. I just do a lot of extra cooking,
which makes things very great.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
Yes, but you're you know you're on the game day morning,
on Thanksgiving morning. We're putting this up on Thanksgiving morning.
We had game debut. We have all of our preview shows,
so please check that all out. And when I say
we're looking for post Thanksgiving winners, the reason I said that, Cynthia,
is because for this show, we decided, look, this is
going up pretty close to those games. Let's pick the
(01:00):
games after Thanksgiving. We picked three games every week against
the spread. Last week I kept my winning streak going
and I finished two and one, so eighth straight week
that I've had a winning record on this show. You
got back on the winning track. So that is good
to hear. Unfortunately, like, why are you shaking your head?
Speaker 3 (01:23):
Oh no, I've just got a long way to go.
You know, I got a long way to go.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Okay, we'll do it then by picking some winners here, Yeah,
you are up. Let's go first, give me the rams,
the rams to cover. Okay, that was one of the
ones I was thinking about. So I like that La r.
Speaker 3 (01:39):
Versus car It's at Carolina. It's ten and a half points.
That's the last I saw. I don't even care if
you can bid that all the way up to thirteen.
I think they win. I think they win going away.
This is the best team in football right now against
a team that you know, they looked. It was a
very bad game that San Francisco. I mean just a
It was a tough, tough hang, yeah, tough hang for
(02:01):
that one. So I'm looking at that game and Carolina
caused some turnovers, we saw some weirds. I don't think
against Matthew Stafford and this offense and that defense is
not gonna look the same. So it might be boring,
but for different reasons.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
Yeah, I think that could be like a three score
game very easily. Carolina's defense if you're gonna beat the Rams,
you have to get some pressure on Matthew Stafford.
Speaker 3 (02:25):
Like a lot of pressure on Matthew Stafford.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
They don't get any pressure. Their linebackers struggling. I think
it could be bad against this tight end group. And
ultimately I don't think. I don't find the Carolina Panthers
frisky like that serious. That's serious of a football ti,
at least as a playoff. I think it was a beautiful.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
Punt the Family Weekend. You need a pun.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
Okay, So you pointed out the Rams that that was
one of the ones I was thinking about. Okay, they
were in a category I like a lot of games
this week, you do, I do? Okay, there was a
category of games, and I wanted to mix it up
between the categories. So I was gonna pick one, and
I was like, okay, I'll I won't pick the one
Cynthia's picking. That's how many games I like in this category?
(03:06):
Was you know, I'm really good and you did not
give like enough points like you could. You could give
thirteen points like you said, and it wouldn't be enough.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
I would still take the Rams.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
And so here's the category of teams I would throw
in that mix this week.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
I'm only gonna take one of them. The Broncos.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
I mean they're only getting six points against that Commanders team.
I'd be fine with that. The Seahawks. They're only getting
ten and a half points against Max Brosmer and the Vikings.
I think that could be one and you're free to
take one of those, because I'm not this is a
category of games.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
The Rams would be in that mix.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
But of that group of like the heavy favorites, who
I still think it's not enough.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
Give me the Los Angeles Chargers.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
Minus ten this week against the I don't want to
be around here anymore. Raiders offense and team, and I
know they fired Chip Kelly and maybe they get a
little fired coach bounced.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
It's somehow better with Greg Olsen.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
But I think the Chargers coming off of By, they've
been a different team, especially on defense at home. We
saw this Chargers Raiders matchups earlier in the year. The
Raiders offense had nothing going on in that game. I
have no reason to believe that that offensive line can
stop Tully and Khalil Mack in a daf AOA and
everything going on with the Chargers defense.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
Pretty sure Omari and Hampton will be back in this
one too, which you know that's that's a plus. I'm
with you on the entire analysis. I'm with you if
the price were bid up to even more points as
a differential between the two, I don't think that the
coach bump that would potentially happen here is gonna. I
don't know if O lines get the coach, but I
(04:39):
don't know if they get the memo on that. Maybe
some skill players do, but like I think the O
line and as good as we've seen Ashton gent TV
in general, because you'd have to run against the chargers
to have some sort of, you know, answer to that
pressure that you're talking about. He gets hit behind the
line of scrimmage on pretty much all of his yards.
If the amount of yards he's actually run for versus
the ones that have kind of as positive, it's massive.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
So it's it's just yeah, and he's not in the
offensive line. Coach is Pete Carroll's son, so you're not
getting the bump and you're not firing your son. We
talked a bit a little bit about this on the
previous that's the right move. I do feel bad and
you cannot fire your son.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
You have a whole round.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
Not firing my son. I'm saying if Pete Carroll right
got it. It was some neo baby stuff, not probably
the right hire. But ultimately you got to go down
as a family. And I'm gonna go up picking against
the Raiders maybe every week. They are one of the
worst NFL teams I've ever seen. I actually was surprised
this number was so low. So that's the team I'll
(05:39):
pick out of that category of games. That's my first pick.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
All right.
Speaker 3 (05:41):
I'm not even get started on their draft class because
if you look at oh not good anyways.
Speaker 2 (05:46):
All right, you can go and you could pick from
that category.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
I'm pick from that cat.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
Oh you are. I saw your eyes light up.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
I became prepared because I got real serious this week.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
Okay, you know I really had a winning week last week.
Speaker 3 (05:58):
You want to I got to build on my wins, right,
So Denver, you talked about that, Yeah, so okay, yeah,
I'm sure you're gonna give me a little bit of bait.
I'm going to take it six points, all right. So
number one, Denver's defense. You know, everyone we watched Houston's
defense in the Big Time spotlight against the Bills. Denver's
(06:22):
defense like, excuse me, do you not remember what we
did to Patrick Mahomes. I have an issue to raise you, right,
So I'm looking at that and saying and then look like,
I love dan Quinn. He's a really nice man. I
don't think his defense can has enough even if they
kind of get it all together to stop even though
(06:42):
maybe it's just the fourth quarter for Bonix, that's maybe
all he needs. But I think this is where Bonix
takes this step and kind of turns this corner of
like only the screen pass, dude. I think he goes
now and takes a step forward. This is a defense
to do it against. Just watch what the Lions did
to this secondary before. They don't have a lot of
answers for you know, even any downfield past.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
So I hope the listeners saw that and the viewers.
Cynthia Frielan hit poor dan Quinn with he's a nice man.
Speaker 3 (07:13):
He is so nice.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
But that's when that happens. You're in trouble when Cynthia
hits you with it. He's a nice man. Things aren't
going well. You were feeling bad for Pete Carroll, You're
I would love to run some analytics on how often
a guy who you say is a nice man or
you feel bad for covers the number. I bet it's
(07:35):
very low, and I'm with you. That line was weird.
It did feel like bait. Why was the Broncos only
six points? I know it's there on the road and everything,
but it's supposed to be Mario to this week. It's
that defense of the Commanders. I think the Broncos offense,
by the way, might be turning in a corner. They
played pretty well in that game against I think they're
going to be good the.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
Rest of the way.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
Okay, I'm going to go to what's my favorite pick.
It's a Texans. They're getting four and a half points
in Indianapolis, and I think they're gonna win straight up.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
And I don't feel.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
Incredibly confident about them winning straight up, but I do
feel great about them getting four and a half points
a weird number. I think it's a defensive game, and
I do get that. The underlying numbers and maybe your
model reflects that somewhat. I don't really know, are really
positive on the Colts offense, but they're also really positive
on the Texans defense. Overall, it is a transcendent defense.
(08:31):
And I do think getting CJ. Stroud is going to
really help this offense out. As we're taping, it's not official,
but he is expected to come back. And the thing
that's really impressed me about the Texans lately with Davis
Mills has not been Mills in the passing game well,
that is always impressive, and he has gotten me.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
Their running game has been better. It's been a pretty
good running game.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
With Woodie Marx on our show game debut, I've been
on a little bit of a there we have write
this down with player property.
Speaker 3 (09:02):
Year great streak.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
What he marks over fifty five and a half rushing yards,
that's a little extra for this show bonus. I like
he's been running great and I think they've got some
cohesion running the ball front and the Colts on their
defensive line, they're not the same without the Forest Buckner.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
So man, I think this Texan season is turning around.
I really do.
Speaker 3 (09:20):
I think the four and a half is good. Do
I think they win straight up? Probably not, but I
I don't feel great about that. That's that's what the models.
My model does have four and a half points. I
have a three point win for Indianapolis. But it's more
like a few point six points, which people hate fractional points,
but whatever, I.
Speaker 1 (09:35):
Like it because it's closer to my side two point
six saying you're covering that number best too.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
That's all we need on this show for.
Speaker 3 (09:41):
Melly, And I think I'm looking at Houston, and remember
this is they have two matchups left with the Colts,
so Houston still has the entire division to potentially win.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
Here.
Speaker 3 (09:50):
They have everything to play for. They're coming off of
that big high against the Bills with something tangible, meaning
they found ways to just get Josh, who's a better
quarterback than almost anyone they'll face, better quarterback than Daniel Jones.
That's not shade, it's just a fact, and you're going
to get him off his mark, and they're not dis
Daniel Jones can run the ballt in nowhere near what
(10:12):
Josh Allen can do, but you can get Josh Allen
office game. So I think that the technical defense is
real feisty.
Speaker 1 (10:18):
You know what I thought though, as you're taught too,
it supports your point. Shorter rest for the Colts do
like a little extra rest for the Texans. And then
I'm thinking about how that game played out against the
Chiefs last week. Ninety snaps for the Colts defense. So
that's a tired defense on less rest. It's just like
(10:40):
another small reason. It's more about the eyeball test that
number one, I think this is a special defense. And
number two, I think the offense is improving from disastrous
yep to competent like twenty first, you know what I mean,
just like looking like a normal offense. Jaden Higgins starting
to play better, Nico Collins looking like Nico Collins, like
(11:03):
everything about it. They're just looking respectable. That's all I need.
Let's go Texans. Make my boy Walker happy?
Speaker 2 (11:10):
All right? Your third pick?
Speaker 3 (11:12):
All right? I mean I'm gonna go all over here.
You you kind of talked about Seattle.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Okay, you're doing it.
Speaker 3 (11:19):
I just think it's an undervalued number, you know. And
if I see a mispraise stockma snatch it up. Because
ten and a half points at home against Minnesota. I
don't know if you saw the weird when you start
to see like strange things coming out in the media,
you know, like the home.
Speaker 2 (11:36):
Life isn't good there for Minnesota.
Speaker 3 (11:38):
Yeah, and Minnesota it's like some weirdo stuff and I
you know, I'm cool, Max Brosmer Okay, Like I kind
of feel bad for the kid, Like, you know, you're
coming in and justin Jefferson's not had the year that
he would have liked to had, and you know, you
see this frustration and these things and like all the
stuff spoiling over with the most. Maybe he needs that
vo Max, and maybe needs to you know, start tracking.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
I think it might.
Speaker 1 (12:01):
I mean, I think it'll be an upgrade. I think
it might be an upgrade at quarterback. So that wouldn't
be the reason. No, But we also don't.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
From because it's a bad circum It's you know, if
the starter, if the backups better than the starter, they'd
beat the starter. But like you know, it's just a
hard situation to come into. You it would be better
if they were, you know, just resting everyone Week eighteen style.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
But you know, we got six games to play.
Speaker 1 (12:19):
I heard I was actually a Vikings beat writer write
something like the only positive from this Packers game is,
you know, the next only half Thanksgiving and we're hitting
the end of the season, and I'm thinking not really,
six games is a long time in the NFL. Six
games is an eternity and this Seahawks' defense is just
going to swallow up that injured Vikings offensive line hole.
(12:41):
So even if Brozemer plays well and I think he
might have something, I think they like him a little bit.
Speaker 3 (12:46):
I like him a little.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
I mean, I've no might like him better than Jajim McCrae.
I just I just.
Speaker 3 (12:50):
I don't know about that.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
I like ten and a half.
Speaker 3 (12:52):
Yeah, I just think that Seattle's a lot better.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
I think these this Rams and Seahawks, these two teams
are not only the best teams in the NFL. I
think they're the best teams in the NFL with like
a tier below to whoever is three and four. And
so that's why I think you're right.
Speaker 3 (13:07):
The good news is that I feel so much more
wide open than any other recent season. So maybe we
won't see like a repeat of the same super Bowl,
you know. Like I feel like I've seen the Chiefs
a lot, seeing the Eagles a good amount, you know.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
I maybe we see some Rams in there, but it's
been a while, but maybe some new Blood's been five
years since the re.
Speaker 3 (13:25):
I'm just saying, so, like be fun to see different colors,
you know.
Speaker 2 (13:28):
Okay, So I have one more pick to go.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
Now. I have certain rules. You have rules, you know,
maxims that I meant to go by. Okay, one of
them is don't pick against your own team, because then, oh,
you don't really enjoy either way. And I broke that
rule earlier this season when I went against the Patriots,
and you know what they covered that week, and so
I was wrong and I was annoyed by it. So
(13:51):
I will not pick against the Patriots this week. They
are favored by seven and a half against the Giants.
But I'm just gonna be real. For people who like
people who like real people like extra picks too, They're like,
why only three?
Speaker 2 (14:05):
Give us more? We've been kind of giving a few
more of this this week.
Speaker 1 (14:11):
I really like the Giants to cover that number this week,
but I'm not gonna make that one of them.
Speaker 3 (14:15):
Don't do that.
Speaker 2 (14:16):
I just don't know.
Speaker 1 (14:17):
I want to enjoy it if the Patriots win big,
but I don't think they will because their offensive line
was struggling to run, block, and really pass protect before
losing the entire left side of their offensive line. They
can't run the ball right now in general, and their
defensive line quietly not nearly the same without Milton Williams.
I think the Giants are a very frisky team. I
(14:37):
just think it's gonna be a good ball game. And
seven and a half is too many points, So putting
that to them, you're with me. Okay, here's the final category,
and it's one of the maxims. You just look at
the lines, and especially on lines that are like six
and above or so, you're like, this NFL team has
not earned the right to be favored by six points
(14:59):
in any game. And I don't even care what the
opponent is. I don't care about the situation. It's just
you haven't earned the right to be six point favorites.
There's two candidates, and so maybe we'll talk them through,
but I like them both. The Miami Dolphins are six
point favorites over the Saints. They're the Miami Dolphins, and
I gotta admit the team I'm leaning towards, even though
(15:21):
they're seven and four. The Jacksonville Jaguars, I don't know
I've earned the right to be six and a half
point favorites in Tennessee, and I know the.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
Opponent should matter to me.
Speaker 1 (15:31):
But I've watched the Titans the last week. They've gotten
a little bit better, and it's it's a division matchup.
The Titans are at home too, so in this case,
the Dolphins are at home, but the Jaguars are six
and a half point favorites on the road. Neither of
these teams I feel like have earned the right to
be this big a favorite. Just blindly, I will take
the other side in these games. I think I'm leaning
(15:53):
towards the Titans covering. And look, they covered last week again,
the Seahawks last I mean you like the Titans last
week to cover. Yeah, I think that they cover again.
And I talked you out of it right the top
out of it. It got murky, It got murky.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
But I'm I'm, I actually am with you, Like I
think there's something about this team, and I don't. I
don't like you're getting special teams. Things to start happening.
They're they're digging down, they're you know, like it's it's
one of those things where it's like, well, what do
we got to lose. Let's figure this out, you know, like,
let's have a little fun. Doesn't mean you win games, no,
(16:29):
but it means you keep it closer.
Speaker 1 (16:31):
Yeah, And I do like the Saints to cover that
six despite how poorly they've played, they've kind of been
in every other week team. You might get a better
performing out of them against the Dolphins, but ultimately, yes,
I'm going to go with the Titans, who, to me,
eye test wise, they've just been better overall defensively, came
wards playing pretty well, and more than anything, I don't
know what this Jaguars team is. No one does they
(16:53):
just do you think they know their success rate on
design runs? Last week we're twenty percent, and yet they
had a couple big runs, like I don't even know,
so I don't know what to do with them, and
so it's division game.
Speaker 2 (17:03):
I think the Titans keep it close. That's what we
do here, that's.
Speaker 3 (17:05):
What we do.
Speaker 2 (17:06):
We give winners.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
We love winners.
Speaker 1 (17:08):
Eight straight weeks for me, you're feeling good. Crushing me
on game debut, everyone check that out. That's on NFL
Network throughout the weekend, by the way, and it's also
on YouTube. I should point out they call it game
Picks on YouTube, but they put our show up on
YouTube it would say like week thirteen game Picks. So
if you're watching us on YouTube the NFL Daily, thank you,
(17:31):
and you're just head over there and then head over
to Cynthia's channel numbers game. Yeah, and then you got
the show with Logan Ryan too, NFL. NFL like you, Cynthia,
the hardest working woman in.
Speaker 3 (17:42):
The buildings as the man who literally works seven days week.
It's a nice compliment.
Speaker 1 (17:47):
Let's get out of here, let's go eat some turkey.
Uh yeah. Has a great Thanksgiving and a great weekend because.
Speaker 2 (17:56):
We'll be back.
Speaker 1 (17:58):
We'll actually be back next in this feed Black Friday.
So we're doing a recap of the Thanksgiving games and
the Black Friday game. Come have some fun with us. Then,
thank you, Cynthia.
Speaker 3 (18:09):
Thanksgiving, Thanksgiving m
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're ready for some post
Thanksgiving winners. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesley
podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Freeland for.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
A special holiday edition of our Picks.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
That was the Colleen Wolf voice. We used to call
this man versus model. It was your computer model. You're
the busiest woman.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
Not even this week. No, it's we all weird schedule,
so we have to it's the most fun week of
the year. I just do a lot of extra cooking,
which makes things very great.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
Yes, but you're you know you're on the game day morning,
on Thanksgiving morning. We're putting this up on Thanksgiving morning.
We had game debut. We have all of our preview shows,
so please check that all out. And when I say
we're looking for post Thanksgiving winners, the reason I said that, Cynthia,
is because for this show, we decided, look, this is
going up pretty close to those games. Let's pick the
(01:00):
games after Thanksgiving. We picked three games every week against
the spread. Last week I kept my winning streak going
and I finished two and one, so eighth straight week
that I've had a winning record on this show. You
got back on the winning track. So that is good
to hear. Unfortunately, like, why are you shaking your head?
Speaker 3 (01:23):
Oh no, I've just got a long way to go.
You know, I got a long way to go.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Okay, we'll do it then by picking some winners here, Yeah,
you are up. Let's go first, give me the rams,
the rams to cover. Okay, that was one of the
ones I was thinking about. So I like that La r.
Speaker 3 (01:39):
Versus car It's at Carolina. It's ten and a half points.
That's the last I saw. I don't even care if
you can bid that all the way up to thirteen.
I think they win. I think they win going away.
This is the best team in football right now against
a team that you know, they looked. It was a
very bad game that San Francisco. I mean just a
It was a tough, tough hang, yeah, tough hang for
(02:01):
that one. So I'm looking at that game and Carolina
caused some turnovers, we saw some weirds. I don't think
against Matthew Stafford and this offense and that defense is
not gonna look the same. So it might be boring,
but for different reasons.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
Yeah, I think that could be like a three score
game very easily. Carolina's defense if you're gonna beat the Rams,
you have to get some pressure on Matthew Stafford.
Speaker 3 (02:25):
Like a lot of pressure on Matthew Stafford.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
They don't get any pressure. Their linebackers struggling. I think
it could be bad against this tight end group. And
ultimately I don't think. I don't find the Carolina Panthers
frisky like that serious. That's serious of a football ti,
at least as a playoff. I think it was a beautiful.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
Punt the Family Weekend. You need a pun.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
Okay, So you pointed out the Rams that that was
one of the ones I was thinking about. Okay, they
were in a category I like a lot of games
this week, you do, I do? Okay, there was a
category of games, and I wanted to mix it up
between the categories. So I was gonna pick one, and
I was like, okay, I'll I won't pick the one
Cynthia's picking. That's how many games I like in this category?
(03:06):
Was you know, I'm really good and you did not
give like enough points like you could. You could give
thirteen points like you said, and it wouldn't be enough.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
I would still take the Rams.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
And so here's the category of teams I would throw
in that mix this week.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
I'm only gonna take one of them. The Broncos.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
I mean they're only getting six points against that Commanders team.
I'd be fine with that. The Seahawks. They're only getting
ten and a half points against Max Brosmer and the Vikings.
I think that could be one and you're free to
take one of those, because I'm not this is a
category of games.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
The Rams would be in that mix.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
But of that group of like the heavy favorites, who
I still think it's not enough.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
Give me the Los Angeles Chargers.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
Minus ten this week against the I don't want to
be around here anymore. Raiders offense and team, and I
know they fired Chip Kelly and maybe they get a
little fired coach bounced.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
It's somehow better with Greg Olsen.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
But I think the Chargers coming off of By, they've
been a different team, especially on defense at home. We
saw this Chargers Raiders matchups earlier in the year. The
Raiders offense had nothing going on in that game. I
have no reason to believe that that offensive line can
stop Tully and Khalil Mack in a daf AOA and
everything going on with the Chargers defense.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
Pretty sure Omari and Hampton will be back in this
one too, which you know that's that's a plus. I'm
with you on the entire analysis. I'm with you if
the price were bid up to even more points as
a differential between the two, I don't think that the
coach bump that would potentially happen here is gonna. I
don't know if O lines get the coach, but I
(04:39):
don't know if they get the memo on that. Maybe
some skill players do, but like I think the O
line and as good as we've seen Ashton gent TV
in general, because you'd have to run against the chargers
to have some sort of, you know, answer to that
pressure that you're talking about. He gets hit behind the
line of scrimmage on pretty much all of his yards.
If the amount of yards he's actually run for versus
the ones that have kind of as positive, it's massive.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
So it's it's just yeah, and he's not in the
offensive line. Coach is Pete Carroll's son, so you're not
getting the bump and you're not firing your son. We
talked a bit a little bit about this on the
previous that's the right move. I do feel bad and
you cannot fire your son.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
You have a whole round.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
Not firing my son. I'm saying if Pete Carroll right
got it. It was some neo baby stuff, not probably
the right hire. But ultimately you got to go down
as a family. And I'm gonna go up picking against
the Raiders maybe every week. They are one of the
worst NFL teams I've ever seen. I actually was surprised
this number was so low. So that's the team I'll
(05:39):
pick out of that category of games. That's my first pick.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
All right.
Speaker 3 (05:41):
I'm not even get started on their draft class because
if you look at oh not good anyways.
Speaker 2 (05:46):
All right, you can go and you could pick from
that category.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
I'm pick from that cat.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
Oh you are. I saw your eyes light up.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
I became prepared because I got real serious this week.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
Okay, you know I really had a winning week last week.
Speaker 3 (05:58):
You want to I got to build on my wins, right,
So Denver, you talked about that, Yeah, so okay, yeah,
I'm sure you're gonna give me a little bit of bait.
I'm going to take it six points, all right. So
number one, Denver's defense. You know, everyone we watched Houston's
defense in the Big Time spotlight against the Bills. Denver's
(06:22):
defense like, excuse me, do you not remember what we
did to Patrick Mahomes. I have an issue to raise you, right,
So I'm looking at that and saying and then look like,
I love dan Quinn. He's a really nice man. I
don't think his defense can has enough even if they
kind of get it all together to stop even though
(06:42):
maybe it's just the fourth quarter for Bonix, that's maybe
all he needs. But I think this is where Bonix
takes this step and kind of turns this corner of
like only the screen pass, dude. I think he goes
now and takes a step forward. This is a defense
to do it against. Just watch what the Lions did
to this secondary before. They don't have a lot of
answers for you know, even any downfield past.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
So I hope the listeners saw that and the viewers.
Cynthia Frielan hit poor dan Quinn with he's a nice man.
Speaker 3 (07:13):
He is so nice.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
But that's when that happens. You're in trouble when Cynthia
hits you with it. He's a nice man. Things aren't
going well. You were feeling bad for Pete Carroll, You're
I would love to run some analytics on how often
a guy who you say is a nice man or
you feel bad for covers the number. I bet it's
(07:35):
very low, and I'm with you. That line was weird.
It did feel like bait. Why was the Broncos only
six points? I know it's there on the road and everything,
but it's supposed to be Mario to this week. It's
that defense of the Commanders. I think the Broncos offense,
by the way, might be turning in a corner. They
played pretty well in that game against I think they're
going to be good the.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
Rest of the way.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
Okay, I'm going to go to what's my favorite pick.
It's a Texans. They're getting four and a half points
in Indianapolis, and I think they're gonna win straight up.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
And I don't feel.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
Incredibly confident about them winning straight up, but I do
feel great about them getting four and a half points
a weird number. I think it's a defensive game, and
I do get that. The underlying numbers and maybe your
model reflects that somewhat. I don't really know, are really
positive on the Colts offense, but they're also really positive
on the Texans defense. Overall, it is a transcendent defense.
(08:31):
And I do think getting CJ. Stroud is going to
really help this offense out. As we're taping, it's not official,
but he is expected to come back. And the thing
that's really impressed me about the Texans lately with Davis
Mills has not been Mills in the passing game well,
that is always impressive, and he has gotten me.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
Their running game has been better. It's been a pretty
good running game.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
With Woodie Marx on our show game debut, I've been
on a little bit of a there we have write
this down with player property.
Speaker 3 (09:02):
Year great streak.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
What he marks over fifty five and a half rushing yards,
that's a little extra for this show bonus. I like
he's been running great and I think they've got some
cohesion running the ball front and the Colts on their
defensive line, they're not the same without the Forest Buckner.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
So man, I think this Texan season is turning around.
I really do.
Speaker 3 (09:20):
I think the four and a half is good. Do
I think they win straight up? Probably not, but I
I don't feel great about that. That's that's what the models.
My model does have four and a half points. I
have a three point win for Indianapolis. But it's more
like a few point six points, which people hate fractional points,
but whatever, I.
Speaker 1 (09:35):
Like it because it's closer to my side two point
six saying you're covering that number best too.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
That's all we need on this show for.
Speaker 3 (09:41):
Melly, And I think I'm looking at Houston, and remember
this is they have two matchups left with the Colts,
so Houston still has the entire division to potentially win.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
Here.
Speaker 3 (09:50):
They have everything to play for. They're coming off of
that big high against the Bills with something tangible, meaning
they found ways to just get Josh, who's a better
quarterback than almost anyone they'll face, better quarterback than Daniel Jones.
That's not shade, it's just a fact, and you're going
to get him off his mark, and they're not dis
Daniel Jones can run the ballt in nowhere near what
(10:12):
Josh Allen can do, but you can get Josh Allen
office game. So I think that the technical defense is
real feisty.
Speaker 1 (10:18):
You know what I thought though, as you're taught too,
it supports your point. Shorter rest for the Colts do
like a little extra rest for the Texans. And then
I'm thinking about how that game played out against the
Chiefs last week. Ninety snaps for the Colts defense. So
that's a tired defense on less rest. It's just like
(10:40):
another small reason. It's more about the eyeball test that
number one, I think this is a special defense. And
number two, I think the offense is improving from disastrous
yep to competent like twenty first, you know what I mean,
just like looking like a normal offense. Jaden Higgins starting
to play better, Nico Collins looking like Nico Collins, like
(11:03):
everything about it. They're just looking respectable. That's all I need.
Let's go Texans. Make my boy Walker happy?
Speaker 2 (11:10):
All right? Your third pick?
Speaker 3 (11:12):
All right? I mean I'm gonna go all over here.
You you kind of talked about Seattle.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Okay, you're doing it.
Speaker 3 (11:19):
I just think it's an undervalued number, you know. And
if I see a mispraise stockma snatch it up. Because
ten and a half points at home against Minnesota. I
don't know if you saw the weird when you start
to see like strange things coming out in the media,
you know, like the home.
Speaker 2 (11:36):
Life isn't good there for Minnesota.
Speaker 3 (11:38):
Yeah, and Minnesota it's like some weirdo stuff and I
you know, I'm cool, Max Brosmer Okay, Like I kind
of feel bad for the kid, Like, you know, you're
coming in and justin Jefferson's not had the year that
he would have liked to had, and you know, you
see this frustration and these things and like all the
stuff spoiling over with the most. Maybe he needs that
vo Max, and maybe needs to you know, start tracking.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
I think it might.
Speaker 1 (12:01):
I mean, I think it'll be an upgrade. I think
it might be an upgrade at quarterback. So that wouldn't
be the reason. No, But we also don't.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
From because it's a bad circum It's you know, if
the starter, if the backups better than the starter, they'd
beat the starter. But like you know, it's just a
hard situation to come into. You it would be better
if they were, you know, just resting everyone Week eighteen style.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
But you know, we got six games to play.
Speaker 1 (12:19):
I heard I was actually a Vikings beat writer write
something like the only positive from this Packers game is,
you know, the next only half Thanksgiving and we're hitting
the end of the season, and I'm thinking not really,
six games is a long time in the NFL. Six
games is an eternity and this Seahawks' defense is just
going to swallow up that injured Vikings offensive line hole.
(12:41):
So even if Brozemer plays well and I think he
might have something, I think they like him a little bit.
Speaker 3 (12:46):
I like him a little.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
I mean, I've no might like him better than Jajim McCrae.
I just I just.
Speaker 3 (12:50):
I don't know about that.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
I like ten and a half.
Speaker 3 (12:52):
Yeah, I just think that Seattle's a lot better.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
I think these this Rams and Seahawks, these two teams
are not only the best teams in the NFL. I
think they're the best teams in the NFL with like
a tier below to whoever is three and four. And
so that's why I think you're right.
Speaker 3 (13:07):
The good news is that I feel so much more
wide open than any other recent season. So maybe we
won't see like a repeat of the same super Bowl,
you know. Like I feel like I've seen the Chiefs
a lot, seeing the Eagles a good amount, you know.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
I maybe we see some Rams in there, but it's
been a while, but maybe some new Blood's been five
years since the re.
Speaker 3 (13:25):
I'm just saying, so, like be fun to see different colors,
you know.
Speaker 2 (13:28):
Okay, So I have one more pick to go.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
Now. I have certain rules. You have rules, you know,
maxims that I meant to go by. Okay, one of
them is don't pick against your own team, because then, oh,
you don't really enjoy either way. And I broke that
rule earlier this season when I went against the Patriots,
and you know what they covered that week, and so
I was wrong and I was annoyed by it. So
(13:51):
I will not pick against the Patriots this week. They
are favored by seven and a half against the Giants.
But I'm just gonna be real. For people who like
people who like real people like extra picks too, They're like,
why only three?
Speaker 2 (14:05):
Give us more? We've been kind of giving a few
more of this this week.
Speaker 1 (14:11):
I really like the Giants to cover that number this week,
but I'm not gonna make that one of them.
Speaker 3 (14:15):
Don't do that.
Speaker 2 (14:16):
I just don't know.
Speaker 1 (14:17):
I want to enjoy it if the Patriots win big,
but I don't think they will because their offensive line
was struggling to run, block, and really pass protect before
losing the entire left side of their offensive line. They
can't run the ball right now in general, and their
defensive line quietly not nearly the same without Milton Williams.
I think the Giants are a very frisky team. I
(14:37):
just think it's gonna be a good ball game. And
seven and a half is too many points, So putting
that to them, you're with me. Okay, here's the final category,
and it's one of the maxims. You just look at
the lines, and especially on lines that are like six
and above or so, you're like, this NFL team has
not earned the right to be favored by six points
(14:59):
in any game. And I don't even care what the
opponent is. I don't care about the situation. It's just
you haven't earned the right to be six point favorites.
There's two candidates, and so maybe we'll talk them through,
but I like them both. The Miami Dolphins are six
point favorites over the Saints. They're the Miami Dolphins, and
I gotta admit the team I'm leaning towards, even though
(15:21):
they're seven and four. The Jacksonville Jaguars, I don't know
I've earned the right to be six and a half
point favorites in Tennessee, and I know the.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
Opponent should matter to me.
Speaker 1 (15:31):
But I've watched the Titans the last week. They've gotten
a little bit better, and it's it's a division matchup.
The Titans are at home too, so in this case,
the Dolphins are at home, but the Jaguars are six
and a half point favorites on the road. Neither of
these teams I feel like have earned the right to
be this big a favorite. Just blindly, I will take
the other side in these games. I think I'm leaning
(15:53):
towards the Titans covering. And look, they covered last week again,
the Seahawks last I mean you like the Titans last
week to cover. Yeah, I think that they cover again.
And I talked you out of it right the top
out of it. It got murky, It got murky.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
But I'm I'm, I actually am with you, Like I
think there's something about this team, and I don't. I
don't like you're getting special teams. Things to start happening.
They're they're digging down, they're you know, like it's it's
one of those things where it's like, well, what do
we got to lose. Let's figure this out, you know, like,
let's have a little fun. Doesn't mean you win games, no,
(16:29):
but it means you keep it closer.
Speaker 1 (16:31):
Yeah, And I do like the Saints to cover that
six despite how poorly they've played, they've kind of been
in every other week team. You might get a better
performing out of them against the Dolphins, but ultimately, yes,
I'm going to go with the Titans, who, to me,
eye test wise, they've just been better overall defensively, came
wards playing pretty well, and more than anything, I don't
know what this Jaguars team is. No one does they
(16:53):
just do you think they know their success rate on
design runs? Last week we're twenty percent, and yet they
had a couple big runs, like I don't even know,
so I don't know what to do with them, and
so it's division game.
Speaker 2 (17:03):
I think the Titans keep it close. That's what we
do here, that's.
Speaker 3 (17:05):
What we do.
Speaker 2 (17:06):
We give winners.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
We love winners.
Speaker 1 (17:08):
Eight straight weeks for me, you're feeling good. Crushing me
on game debut, everyone check that out. That's on NFL
Network throughout the weekend, by the way, and it's also
on YouTube. I should point out they call it game
Picks on YouTube, but they put our show up on
YouTube it would say like week thirteen game Picks. So
if you're watching us on YouTube the NFL Daily, thank you,
(17:31):
and you're just head over there and then head over
to Cynthia's channel numbers game. Yeah, and then you got
the show with Logan Ryan too, NFL. NFL like you, Cynthia,
the hardest working woman in.
Speaker 3 (17:42):
The buildings as the man who literally works seven days week.
It's a nice compliment.
Speaker 1 (17:47):
Let's get out of here, let's go eat some turkey.
Uh yeah. Has a great Thanksgiving and a great weekend because.
Speaker 2 (17:56):
We'll be back.
Speaker 1 (17:58):
We'll actually be back next in this feed Black Friday.
So we're doing a recap of the Thanksgiving games and
the Black Friday game. Come have some fun with us. Then,
thank you, Cynthia.
Speaker 3 (18:09):
Thanksgiving, Thanksgiving m
Host
Peter Schrager
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