September 9, 2021 • 36 mins
On the first episode of the Jets Game Preview Podcast hosts Ethan Greenberg and Cynthia Freuland take a deep dive into the Week 1 matchup with the Panthers. Starting with a little reunion with former Jet Sam Darnold (2:30), then digging into Cynthia's projections for Zach Wilson's rookie season (5:10) and the Jets run game (14:30), and they wrap up looking at the biggest mismatches the Jets can take advantage of (34:11).
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
Welcome to the first edition of the Game Preview Podcast,
presented by wind Bet. Betting is a team sport bet
together at win Bet. I'm Ethan Greenberg here in the
bet MGM studio, joined alongside Cynthia Freeland in her most
of Beach, California, where it is early in the morning,
So thank you very much for joining us. It's not
too early. I like to be on East Coast time.
I gotta know what's going on. I can't be late. Okay,
(00:27):
fair enough. Well, you know, I'm excited for this podcast
that basically I'm gonna give a little uh, a little
staff shot of wats on tap. Obviously, we're gonna talk
Jets Panthers. We've incorporated Cynthia's numbers throughout the podcast, but
we're also just gonna talk different matchups, the vibes around
both teams, especially this week heading into week one, And
I just want to paint this picture for the audience.
(00:50):
At one forty four in the morning, East Coast time,
there was an email sent from you, Cynthia Freeland, that
had eleven pages, over thirty five hundred words of different numbers,
different stats, and I just want to know, like, how
long did that take to put together. Your girls really
excited about talking about actual football. So, you know, it's
(01:10):
been a while. Preseason football was I was glad we
had it, but Lud, I am ready for some real actions.
So I'm just excited. It's not gonna be that aggressive
every time. But it was a little aggressive, just a
little aggressive. It wasn't it wasn't maybe it was, maybe
it was, but even even still it was. It's very
beneficial to us, you know, to me cranking out there
or looking at some of these numbers before we start,
(01:32):
I've color coded. If you're watching, you can see some
of the yellow. We got some orange for the Panthers here.
This way, you know, I can keep the jets in
the Panthers separate. Well, this is what we have, all right,
We're gonna break each podcast down into four downs, right,
so you have first down, second out, third down, fourth down,
But before all of that, we have our opening kickoff,
and then at the end of the you know, after
(01:54):
fourth down. I guess, you know, this doesn't really make sense,
so maybe we'll incorporate it before fourth down. Are we
punting or or are we going for it? Maybe we're
kicking a field goal? If we're feeling spicy. So well,
we'll get there as the podcast rolls on. But let's
just start with our opening kickoff. It's been a while
since a regular season game has taken place in the NFL.
(02:14):
The Jets last played first week in January, week seventeen.
Now they're eighteen weeks. This is a completely different roster,
new quarterback, new head coach, and of course Cynthia you
know in the NFL, of course they're playing their former
quarterback in week one. I mean, you couldn't draw it
up any any more entertaining than this. Listen to me,
(02:35):
this is actually a win, win win. It doesn't often
happen like that. I think it was the right move
for Sam Donald. I think it was the right move
for the Jet. I think it was the right move
kind of for the entire league. This is a great
first game. This is not a team, it's not a rivalry.
Barely play the Panthers like once every what four years
or something like that, and it's interesting to see, you know,
how people evolve. So I actually think it's great for everyone,
(02:57):
Like it's it's great TV, it's great excitement for all
of us. So I'm I'm in I'm all in. You know,
we just went to the one shot. What is over
your left shoulder and what that says fantasy on it?
Like fantasy? Is it like a Fantasy football trophy? Listen?
You know, like this is the trophy we we play
in this Fantasy Live league on NFL Network and this
(03:18):
it's it's a monster. It's like it's gigantic. Where else
in my house? Am I gonna put this nowhere? It's gigantic? Yeah,
of course, come on the match. You gotta do it.
It's huge. It's actually kind of heavy. I'm gonna drop
it and hurt someone there. You don't don't toss it
like Brady did you know on the boat Graade, No
(03:40):
want to catch it. But that's the that's the two
thousand twenty league Champion trophy for you, right, yep, I
gotta send my title. And how many teams are we talking? Uh,
there's twelve in that one. And then there's another one
that we're in with the analytics people around the entire league,
the actual people who work for teams, and that has
fourteen people in it. So that one's hard to win too,
(04:01):
but last year too, because I've got to get that
dig in there. There's a there's a Giants guy on
our on our team, so maybe he's watching. Okay, all right,
you know what if hey, we we even though they're
the crosstown rivals, if you're a Giants fan and you're watching,
we appreciate it. We we like all viewership. Right, So
let's start with first down here. You mentioned Sam Donald,
(04:23):
but for the Jets, they draft Zack Wilson's second overall.
He's the new quarterback for the New York Jets with
the new head coach Robert Sala. So let's talk about
Zack Wilson in this Jets passing offense against this Panther's
past defense. And the Panthers have a young defense overall,
and you think about where they started in the first
round with J. C. Horne in the top ten. But
(04:44):
you know, before we get to the Panthers, you know,
I got ahead of my skis here. Let's start with this.
I found this fascinating you in this is like on
your first page of notes, your model, which I think
you said is run like is double ms and capitals millions. Okay,
so eighty one point six million simulations of the regular
(05:04):
season and you have Zack Wilson for favorite for rookie
passing yards and touchdowns, I do over Trevor Lawrence, which
you know whatever, he was drafted second and for versus first. Right,
So the interesting part there is I think this is
actually gonna be a really big strength of the Jets
if I were looking a little further through the season,
because you got to get the timing and the ability
(05:25):
to read defenses down. So I'm not suggesting it's gonna
come out every single week and through for three hundred yards.
I have about thirty nine hundred total yards for him.
That's a All projections in the beginning of the season
seemed low because remember everything is kind of put towards
a median, and then every week it either goes higher
or lower than that. So they all kind of started
an average. So for me, Zach Wilson at thirty nine
(05:47):
oh seven, very precise. Here, that's the kind of median
projection that leads all rookie quarterbacks. And that even assumes
I even pretended that they were going to put in
all the rookies to begin so even Trey Lance, even
with if Justin Fields were start, Nope, none of that.
He's number one. Wow. Alright that I actually get Jets
fans pretty excited, especially you consider how Zack Wilson played
(06:08):
this preseason. What did your numbers say about his performance
in the I guess he only played two out of
the team's three games. Yeah, really good. So p f
F Frank's him second and they're grading um. I kind
of do it a little bit different. I use like
this thing called wind share, which is kind of like
war in baseball or player efficiency ratings in the NBA.
So what I try to do is to see, like,
(06:28):
what's this average above other people and quarterbacks in those
valuable positions. So quarterback is always going to have the
highest relative you know, wind share number. So right now
for me, Zach Wilson's actually trending as the number it
goes with the other numbers as the number one highest
wind share quarterback amongst rookies. So that's ah. I liked
(06:48):
the performance. I also think the fit with Mike Lafleur
is really what drives that why, because what we saw
from college from b y U film was this really
good play actions, super efficient. He could read defenses using
play action, especially the type of play action that we've
seen MICHAELA fleur implement. We saw that in San Francisco.
He was incredible at it, like a ridiculous number. In
(07:12):
the preseason, Okay, I'm not preseason, he had a perfect
pass rating using it. No big deal, just perfect. But
I don't expect that to continue because that's just not
how it works, right, But ultimately it's going to be
a huge source of strength going forward. You know, you
mentioned the success and this type of offense and for
Zach Wilson, why Jets fans and why I think the
Jets ultimately drafted Zack Wilson. This is a part of
(07:34):
your statute, so I have to give credit where credit
is due. Wilson had a perfect passer rating on play
action passes using outside zone run concepts at b YU
and you know, the Jets are gonna love the outside
zone and we're gonna talk about that this show. But
that just gives you a glimpse as to what kind
of offense the Jets are gonna run. You mentioned you
(07:56):
mentioned play action, Well, how about Corey Davis? Right? Are
you somebody that really stretched the field last year with
the Tennessee Titans who run a similar offense with Arthur
Smith last year? Now, in Atlanta as the head coach
to what the Jets are probably going to implement this season. Yeah,
so well, first of all, we have to back up
one thing because I love offensive lineman and I love
(08:18):
when oh lines get better because that makes the whole
thing just look feel be way better. And I live
in southern California. I watched a lot of Alijah Vera
Tucker when he was at USC. That is a huge ad,
like figuratively and literally a huge He's a he's huge,
so it's a it's a huge at And also McKay
(08:39):
beckson being healthy. We we talked about last season a lot.
You know, it's all about that old line, the ability
to create some time and space so that you can
run any type of concept, let alone outside his own concept.
So the moves that were made for that old line
a plus. I'm very happy it's all going in the
right direction. You know, you don't fix everything in one
fell swoop. You need to keep working on it. And
(09:01):
all the ads of Morgan Moses that's a great contract.
These are really like savvy moves. I love. That's how
you make Corey Davis work. That's how you use the
fact Corey Davis if you look to see what he did. Okay,
there's a metric that's in the next thing, stats crimes.
It's like route yards per route run. And what that
means is are you running deeper routes? Are you being
(09:22):
used a lot? How efficient are you around the fielding?
What what are you doing right? Like? Where where are
you going? How are you used well? Corey Davis ranked
fourth in that metric, and the three guys in front
of him, yeah, they were all Pro Bowl. There's nobody deal.
So there's just a lot of utility there that can
be can be really implemented and once they get the
chemistry down. And one of those guys, A J. Brown
is one of Elijah Moore is really good friends. Going
(09:43):
back to All Miss. He's another guy Cynthia that I'm
very excited to see. I mean, if you watch training
camp every practice before he heard his squad, I mean,
he was making plays left and right. Doesn't play in
the preseason, but you look at his numbers at All Miss,
they are just absolutely discuss Let you know, aside from
the analytical numbers, you talk about eighty six receptions single
(10:05):
season school record at Mississippi. Coming after guy's like a J.
Brown and DK Metcalf who had immediate success in the NFL,
and yuys, you know just kind of your your standard
NFL receiver. I mean, whatever is in the water down
in Oxford, it's it's some good H two oh. It's
to quote Adam Sandler and the water Boy, it is
(10:26):
some high quality H two oh. Because Elijah More he
tore up the statue sheet and then he comes here
and he started making place from day one. I like
everything that was done from the oh line and in
the past catching situation. I think there, this is a
great You gotta build for the future, and you also
have to be mindful of the present. And I think
both the OH line and the receiving corps that was
(10:47):
done with a plus. Like if I were you know,
I'm grading it right because my brains matter A plus
on both. The interesting thing, look, every single rookie it's
gonna be it's they're gonna use is weird because they
had a weird last year. Last year was not normal.
And then we have an extra game this year, so
we're gonna look at Ricky's and we're gonna have them
a little bit of like a mathematical like sort of
(11:10):
asterix there because some didn't play last season, some had
very abbreviated seasons, some had super weird situations, So like
give them a minute to get into the league and
get acclimated and get everything going, because it's just going
to be it's just going to be a little weird.
Like the rookies last year didn't have preseason and they
didn't have any sort of normal training camp at all.
(11:30):
This year they have more normal when it comes to that,
but they didn't have a normal college season. So let's
just you know, well, we're we're gonna not expect him
to be your fantasy superstar from day one, but like
come week, you know, five six, then we're gonna we're
gonna talk about we'll start adding him to our fantasy
lineups and then you can get the big trophy. Went
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(11:51):
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(12:13):
call one two seven er or seven one one seven. Hey.
If if Elijah more helps somebody get the Big Trophy,
that means the Jets offense, specifically Elijah Moore is doing
something right, which is music to Jets fans. Ears. You know,
we were talking a lot about the Jets offense because
of the new new quarterback, to new receivers. We didn't
even talk about Keeling Cole. But how about this Panther's
(12:34):
defense because they're gonna go up against a young defense.
Robert Salas said, they're extremely fast. We talked about J. C. Horne,
who had just a stellar year, even though if you
look at the stat sheet, he didn't really have a
lot of past defenses. This past season, he didn't have
a lot of interceptions, but he's just one of those
guys where you don't even throw to that side of
the field because of how good he is. Yeah, stats
(12:55):
when it comes to defensive backs just all over, and
so linebackers, coverage linebackers too. They don't really reflect the
reality because if if you're getting targeted a lot, that
means that they don't really respect you. The other quarterbacks
of the other you know, offensive plaguage, you know they're
they're throwing it to you. One of the things about J. C. Horne,
can you see my arm? He has incredibly long arms.
(13:18):
Sounds weird, but sometimes when you guys get these guys
who are real, like real long armed, he can like
back down things that are further away from him than others, right,
and he uses his body control exceptionally well. The Panthers
really liked him because of what they saw from his
body control. So he can get closer and in situations
and kind of scrum it up and be a part of,
(13:38):
you know, knocking people down, even if the status he
doesn't reflect that. So when they were throwing kind of
to to an area he could get to, then he
gets to and he just he's just he's like annoying,
like your you know, your brother would like, you know,
it's just not touching you, not touching you, but still
touching you. You know, j C. Horne and all the rookies.
You're gonna have a little bit of an adjustment period
(14:00):
as one does, right, Like Zack Wilson, to your point,
played exceptionally well in the preseason. Robert sala has made
it very clear throughout training camp and to this point on,
you know, the leading up to the first game, like,
there will be rookie moments, right, not all moments will
be glamorous, So expect that from not only Zack Wilson,
Elijah More also j C. Horne on the Panthers side.
(14:21):
But before um, you know what, I'm gonna save that
question for after second down. So let's move to second
down here, let's focus on the Jets run game. You
mentioned the offensive line. It all starts up front for
the Jets on both sides of the ball. But for
the offensive line now with Elijah Vera Tucker at left guard,
Connor McGovern loves this scheme. Kai Beckton entering year two,
(14:44):
the one guy I want to focus on is Morgan Moses.
And as we're recording this podcast, Robert Salis says, whether
it's Moses or George Fan at right tackle. We do
not know the answer to that right now. You're gonna
find out when the Jets play on Sunday at one.
It's Moses. It's Moses. Come on, Cynthia's Jane is Moses.
I mean, I don't know, don't even don't take the bait.
Don't take the bait. This guy's a great run blocker. Especially,
(15:07):
what do you want to do? Oh great, he's I
don't know. I guess I'm that's my opinion obviously, and
I think you go with like the better talent, but
you give everyone chance and rotating in a few different
types of looks. That's really smart. So it's not like
I'm saying that one is bad or whatever. But I
just think Morgans like very underrated run blocker, very highly
(15:27):
underrated run blocker. So I want to focus on Morgan
Moses because again I'm pulling up my cheat sheet here.
I think this contrast is interesting. PFF had him the
sixth highest run blocking great among tackles in the NFL
with minimum one blocking snaps, but on the contrary, his
number as a pass protector don't seem to be very
(15:49):
very good in comparison to the run blocking numbers, where
he's tied for ninth most pressures allowed among tackles in
two thousand twenty. Okay, let's put a little let's everything
needs con text, right, So sometimes when you get these
numbers and there you have to rank them, they just
they are what they are, right Like, if you have
allow thirty eight pressures, then you allow thirty eight pressures.
(16:11):
That's just what it is. But at the end of
the day, you have to add in context, who's standing
next to him, who was he going up against? What
was the situation were you on? Was it third and
twenty two? Because it's you know, I think that the
pass rusher is probably gonna know what's going on where
you were the other team blitzing a ton like, So
you have to put it in context and take that
run blocking and use it in this scheme and realize
(16:32):
that for the return on investment, if you can get
him too run block, then you're putting yourself in much
better situations for more favorable passing situations, so that the
defense has to stay honest and respect both the run
and the past. Way better way, but everyone's numbers look
way better if you're balanced. Yeah, and this is this
is why we have you. Right, you give us the
numbers and and you give us the context, because in
(16:53):
a vacuum the number is not great. But to your point,
everything does deserve context. And let's say it is Morgan
Moses at right tackle on Sunday at Carolina. What do
you make of this Jets offensive line? Assuming it's fully
healthy with McKay Beckton at left tackle in year two,
Elijah bar Tucker Conumer Governed, Greg van Rowden and then
Morgan Moses. This is going to be a challenge this
(17:16):
week because this defense, the way that they've re done
their defense. And by the way, Brian Burns is a
very very good pass Russia. Kind of underrated league wide, didn't.
You don't hear his name kind of popping up as
much as you hear some of the other guys. But
it'll be interesting because they have a lot of defensive
looks as well. So it's a young line. They're just
learning how young meaning working together and you know, the
(17:38):
two most important facets, in my opinion, two most important
people on it are both first or second year players.
So it'll it'll take a minute. I don't think this
is going to be like, it's not gonna be like
last year, but it's going to be like, it's not
going to be like you know, it's not the Browns
old line, but it is all it is not last year.
So going in the right direction and then it's gonna
be it's gonna look a lot better because Zach Wilson's
(17:59):
any to execute a lot of different things is a
really good fit for who's teaching him, and who you're
taught by is very important. So I think that their
skill sets matching will make the everything will look better.
Everything will look better. I'm glad you mentioned Brian Burns
because he's somebody that we should definitely talk about, especially
(18:19):
now that the Panthers have added Hassan Reddick in free agency.
And the interesting part about Hassan Reddick is that from
two thousand seventeen to two thousand nineteen it felt like
his numbers were decent. Ny explodes double digit sacks twelve
and a half in two thousand twenty. Then you have
Derek Brown in the middle. There. Do you like this
(18:40):
Panthers defensive line and where do you give the matchup
advantage right now as we record? So what I like
whenever a team does what the Panthers did. They created
a list of attributes that they wanted to execute for
so they said, we want to run this defense. This
is our theory, this is what we know how to teach,
(19:01):
this is what we're good at coaching. We're gonna select
for those things. Speed is one thing that it sounds
really silly, but like they want really fast guys. Speed
that they love that. I know everyone says that, but
not everyone really knows what that means. And they went
for on the pads, on on the field speeds, right,
so not just like forty times of talking about like
(19:22):
measured speed over the course of actual game footage, So
they went first speed. I think having a cohesive strategy
is the best way to sell if we're all rolling
in the same direction. Boat goes that, how many puns
can I make? Whatever? Like so silly, but but but
I like what they've done, and I think once they
jell together, it's going to be a I actually think
(19:43):
the Panthers are a sneaky underrated potential playoff team, especially
in that division with kind of the Falcons and potentially
the Saints having some down down years. So I do
think that the Panthers are, in my opinion, sneaky, sneaky good.
So I do think that they have a a very
strong team, and I think it's you know, losing to
the Panthers is if that happens, it's that's like, it's
(20:06):
not losing to a team who didn't win any games
last year. It's not losing to a team is going
to be middling. I think that this is at least
about an above five team, if not playoff bound. I
feel like that's the vibe around the Panthers right now,
where when you talk to and you hear different analysts
talk about the Panthers like they're a sneaky good team.
They're young, they're together, right, you know, they put all
(20:28):
the pieces there. Now you have to execute. But the
pieces make good sense on both sides of the ball,
and that leads me to third down. But before we
get there, I just want to say again, this is
the game preview podcast. I'm e Think Greenberg, Cynthia Freeland.
This is presented by wind Bet Betting as a team
sport bet together at wind Bet. So moving on here
to the Panthers offense, you gotta we gotta talk about
(20:51):
Christian McCaffrey, right. I mean, this would not be a
game preview podcast if we were not to talk about
the third player in NFL history with a thousand rush
yards and a thousand receiving yards, which of course happened
in two thousand nineteen. Yeah, so obviously it's coming back
from injury. In twenty nineteen, no offensive player played more
(21:11):
nor no non quarterback offensive player played more snaps than McCaffrey. Uh,
he's a The problem with McCaffrey when you're trying to
defend him, I've seen you know, you know who's actually
really good at is Todd Bowles because that we've seen
him do that now at Tampa Bay. But the problem
with defending Christian McCaffrey is that we don't know what
he's added to his game in the season, right, Like
(21:33):
with Joe Brady, who if you remember the L s
U offense, you know, back when Joe Burrow was just
absolutely letting it up. That guy knows how to game
plan for some passes and some runs, and Christian McCaffrey
does both. So at the end of the day, it's
going to be difficult to see what happens with him,
and especially you know, I actually love the Jets defensive front.
I wish that Carl Auston were there obviously, but you know,
(21:54):
I think they've done made a lot of great moves.
I don't think it's going to be this game where,
you know, I I just I don't think it's gonna
be Look, I don't think it's gonna look bad. I
just think it's going to It's really hard to stop
Christian McAffrey, even if you're Todd Bowls with a Super
Bowl winning defensive front, so it's it's or superwoarning defense, right, So,
you know, Christian McCaffrey is just a very hard person
to defend, especially given the the they did some things
(22:18):
on their on line to help their on line is
not complete, it's not, but Christian McCaffrey does erase a
lot of those problems. And he's somebody that's you got
to count for on every single down. He's got speed,
he's got strength, quickness, he's got it all. That. The
number that stood out to me most Cynthia was, you know,
he played in three games in two thousand twenty and
(22:40):
last year the Panther scored about five more points per game.
They had four hundred sixteen yards with him per game
compared to three hundred thirty four yards without him. They
converted nearly fifty percent on third down. I mean, and
this is just somebody who played, like I said, in
just three games, So that the numbers are staggering with
(23:03):
such a small sample size, at least to somebody who's
not very analytical like me. Yeah, look that the numbers
are staggering for good reason. The Panthers also have a
really good wide receiving core. You know Robby Anderson, who
Jets fans are very familiar with, but d J. Moore
is like super underrated just league wide. Nobody talks about
him as much. He draws coverages very efficiently and effectively
(23:24):
creating more space for everyone else. So I and even
Terrice Marshall's Jr. Who they drafted this year, remember l
S you ties back to Joe Burrow. They worked together there,
so to Joe Brady sorry, and Joe bro Um, but
ultimately Terace Marshall, he's kind of like a possession receiver.
He's got that big body and you know, he's a
good addition to the other receivers that they had along
(23:45):
that core too, So they're they're they're pretty stacked when
it comes to those key skill areas, even though we
don't other than Christian McCaffrey. I don't know. Sometimes you
I've been doing a bunch of fantasy football drafts, You're like,
you forget about DJ Moore, you know, you forget about
you know, other people, and maybe not Jets fans, but
others might forget about Robbi Anderson. You know, like these
are good receivers, like very good receivers, so and both
(24:07):
and both those guys had over a thousand yards receiving
last year. DJ Moore a couple of number stood out
to me. He averaged eighteen yards of catch, just north
of their last year, fifth in the NFL, and receiving
yards since two thousand and eighteen. I mean, those are
some legitimate numbers for d J. Moore, And I think
you're right. I don't think he necessarily gets the credit
that maybe he's deserved, because when you look at his numbers,
(24:27):
he's a very productive player. I think that's the matchup
that a lot of Jets fans are keying in on
the Panthers receivers. Like you said, d J. Moore, Robby Anderson,
Terris Marshall against this Jets young young, young young one
more young young cornerbacks group, and that's going to be
(24:49):
a big matchup for the Jets. Yeah, I think. I mean, look,
I I definitely we're not gonna get through this down
without talking about I love Sheldon Rankins that we're going
to talk about him in the kind of the impact
I think he's gonna have because you gotta like have
some time to throw the ball. So maybe that's you
know that right pressure, you get the bet, you know whatever.
So in this in the middle of their old line
(25:09):
is a spot. But I do think, you know, look,
young young corners mean they need to learn a little bit.
So it's just tricky because if you want to put
it in fantasy football terms with Teddy Bridgewater last year,
the Panthers had three top twenty five wide receivers, kind
of sneaky and didn't When I looked at that, I
was like, is that true? Like I had to look
at it twice, right, So did I put the right
(25:31):
numbers in there? I know, I'm like, is that does
that even? Does that even look right? But you know,
so it's kind of you just don't think of them
as this like passing powerhouse, but maybe we should because
the numbers support it. Winn Bet is now live in
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(25:52):
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(26:12):
seven right? And that kind of leads us into fourth down,
which is Sam Donald right and the Panthers passing game,
and you talk about Sheldon Rankins. This is this is
the down to talk about Sheldon Rankins, because the Jets
are gonna have to get home to Sam Donald in
order to have a chance to win this game. With
interior pressure from Quinnin Williams and Sheldon Rankins. To your point,
(26:35):
Carl Austin would have been a huge part of any
game plan. Definitely this week when you look at that
Panther's offensive line, I feel like talking to different people
the most. The bigger question on the group comes on
the left side of their offensive line, which is where
Carl Lawson would have lined up. Fun fact, right now,
their right tackle, who they franchise sagged and subsequently paid. Um,
(26:58):
he's from my hometown and from a very small town
in Michigan. So like from my town. Um so is
like the only person in the league like ever so
Taylor Molten. But is there a day named after Taylor
Molten in your hometown yet? Like we have like four
stop signs, like three lights something like that, so probably
you know, maybe like maybe the railroad crossing, who knows,
(27:18):
but you know whatever. So the right side is good,
that he's a good right tackle. The left is spicy,
So you're right, the Carl Lawson, the loss of Carl
Lawson would will be felt in that specific spot more so. Um.
The interesting part for me on all of this is
the interior stuff is where we've seen Sam Donald have
(27:39):
some issues. Right, So Sam Donald, the pressure was coming
from all over, but it was especially daunting when it
was kind of coming in his face. Most quarterbacks, that's
true for outside pressure, they don't really see, so typically
they won't feel it doesn't mess up their mechanics. So
it'll be interesting to see how My reason for liking
Sheldon Rankin so much is that as he was injured,
(28:00):
people kind of forget that he's really fast. So his
first you know, he had achilles injuries, right, so you
know his first burst and I like burst because bursts,
like like Aaron Donald is the most bersty player to
ever play, right, So and you see that that birth,
you see it, it's like twitch whatever, And I think
people don't recognize that Sheldon Rankins is more twitched up
(28:22):
than than people give him credit for. Right, So you know,
he in that in that Saints defense, They've got a
lot of twitchy guys, right. Cam Jordan's very fast as well,
so maybe it didn't look as fast as it will
look for when he's now that he's a jet. Well,
you know, Sheldon Rankins had eight sacks a couple of
years ago. That's a very impressive number, especially coming from
the interior of the offensive line and against his Panther's
(28:45):
offensive line. The Jets defensive line knows that that they
have their work cut out for them because of the
young secondary in the back end, and that's probably gonna
be the case throughout the course of the season. But
you know, Cynthia, in terms of Donald, I I wonder
what the numbers from your perspective say about him, because
if you look at the box score and you look
(29:05):
at it, you go to Pro Football Reference, you go
to NFL dot Com, you look at his numbers. The
numbers aren't aren't great, right, there's no way to sugarcoat that.
But then you hear people talking about Sam Donald. You
called it a win, win, win, win for the Jets,
win for the Panthers, win for Sam Donald himself. The
the book around Sam was, well, was it you know,
was it coaching? Was it the supporting cast out wide?
(29:28):
Was it the offensive line? And it feels like across
the league, and if you're the Panthers, you're hoping that
the glimpse of talent that you saw, especially like Sam's
rookie year towards the end of the season and throughout
his career with the Jets, you hope that is what
is what transpires more consistently. But what the numbers, like,
(29:49):
how how do you break down a player like that
where maybe it's hard to break down analytically the situation
that he was in. So first of all, let's the
number that's interesting to me is what the expectations say
from a money standpoint, right, So you know, the trade happened,
and then they franchise tagged him, so it was like
it ends up being an average of like about ten
(30:12):
million a year for him, which is the same as
Washington is paying for Ryan Fitzpatrick, which is the same
as many teams are paying for if you look at
that ten If you use that ten number, it's the
same as many teams are paying for a backup. Now,
the Panthers were drafting eight eighth was not in this draft.
We all knew that wasn't gonna be good enough to
get up high, Like what would you have had to
(30:33):
get to get even to three, which would be monstrous.
So they were looking at it as Okay, who can
we get that can execute the stuff we want to
do and be in the right price range so that
we can make our whole team better. Because getting J. C.
Horne then made a lot more sent from them from
like a whole strategic standpoint. A j boy, of course
they brought over. I believe he's still suspended. That's whatever.
(30:54):
Two games, whatever, one two games, something like that. So
the idea of creating more value for every one and
being able to say, Okay, we're gonna take a shot
on this person whose skill set matches exactly what Matt
Rule and Joe Brady know how to coach. And that's
that's to me where the wind wind comes in. Now,
Sam Donald's numbers have to all be taken in context.
How many times does someone get mono? Like, not a
(31:17):
lot like there are there's not a lot of friends
in the lifetime. Probably no. I mean, like you know,
many come as a quarterback at Mondel while they're playing
in the NFL, like this doesn't happen like and then
there was a strange season, like just a lot of
strange nus. Last year was also a strange NUS as well, right,
So I mean everything was backwards and you didn't get
(31:37):
a chance to have like the normal sort of learning
curve because there was no you know, no communication. It
was all zoom whatever. So long story short, like wipe
the clean this leak the slate clean, and then say
what does Sam Donald do well? Well, since usc Sam
Donald's been a really good deep passer. He needs a
little time to do it, because most people do. He's
not quite the off platform thrower that like say a
(31:59):
Patrick Mahomes or even a Josh Allen is. He needs
to get his his his base set. He needs his
fundamentals right then he can. Then He's a very good
deep passer. First year when he was playing under Todd Bohls, like,
we saw a lot of good deep passing. He took
a lot of sacks and he kept going right and
could connect in those deep routes. So deep routes was
game changing plays. Those are really the areas where you
(32:19):
can totally turn things around very quickly. So I think
what will happen is Joe Brady will be able to
kind of rehab. Remember Joe Burrow had some gnarly numbers
the year before he came to l s U. L
s U obviously was stacked with like a bunch of
first round talent absolutely everywhere, but that aside, he still
was able to craft an offense where Joe Burrow had
(32:39):
historic numbers from you know, not so great numbers elsewhere,
so I think it'll look better Like I actually think
Sam Donald, this could be. You know, I'm not gonna
call it Ryan Tannehill, but it's gonna be, you know,
because to me, when you talk about Ryan Tannehill, it's
like there's also like you know, it's not that just
Derrick Henry Julio Jones. Now you know, I'm not gonna
(33:01):
go that far, but I am going to say it's
gonna be more towards that trajectory, all right, some high
praise also, I mean, you're right. You did see the
glimpses throughout his Jets career and his rookie year and
then even last year the two off platform throws that
I think about where week two against the forty niners
and then week three against the Colts when he bought
some time with his feet. So I mean, this is
(33:23):
this is an entertainment business. Everyone for this. But he
got set on those right on the run and off
platform different right when he can get set, as long
as he can get set deep bob bam, it's it's smoking.
But and look sometimes you just got like you're better off,
like like everyone's I think, I truly think and I'm like,
this is not in any way, shape or form like hyperbole.
(33:45):
I think it is one of the first win win
wins that I've seen in since I can remember. When
it comes for a trade. I think that sentiment the
win win win is kind of what everybody thinks. That
seems to be the consensus about the trade. And you know,
to wrap up our first episode of the game Preview podcast, Cynthia,
where do you think the biggest mismatches for the Jets
(34:07):
and what mismatches then do the Jets have to take
advantage of to give themselves a chance to come back
home and host the Patriots one and all. Well, I
think that the corners, the Jets corners in this matchup
are going to be a tricky one because it would
seem that getting Christian McCaffrey going and then using the
(34:27):
past game to kind of get Sam Donald back in
his groove, it's a little poetic, right. I wouldn't be
surprised if they have some Sam to Robbie packages to
you know, capitalize on the the sort of fun of
all of it. Right, Like, you know, you you go
back and it's like hey, like like they're coming to
our place and We've got this big cat surper and
(34:48):
he needs to see you score a touchdown, Robbie, you know,
like something like that. So you know, I I would
imagine those corners are going to get targeted quite a
bit because I think they're trying to get his get
his groove back. It is Mojo backs. I think that
that's probably But then on the other side, I'm telling you,
I think you're gonna see some really nice pressure up front.
I do think the Jets defensive front is going to
(35:09):
be a strength that we're gonna talk about all season long.
And I'm really I am excited to see what happens
with the receivers and the past game. And I am
so stoked to see Zack Wilson. I'm telling you, like
week five, weeks six, it's gonna be like I'm gonna
want to talk about him in every single down. I'll
try to work it out, like I'll try to end
around you to get it. But you know, in this
first one, I'm I'm looking at this front because that
(35:30):
is Robert Salace, bread and butter, and I love it.
And I also know sneaky good. Like I'm I'm really
excited to see a really good. Um, it's on ESPN,
but it's a great story about Solid this weekend too.
It's my teath. Hey, the energy is high around one
Jets Drive. Cynthia is bringing the Jews from California Hermosa
Beach and that's how we close the first episode of
(35:51):
the Game Preview Podcast presented by Wind. Bet Betting is
a team sport bet together a win bet Jets Panthers Sunday,
one pm in week one. Cynthia, thank you again and
and we'll see you next week.
Welcome to the first edition of the Game Preview Podcast,
presented by wind Bet. Betting is a team sport bet
together at win Bet. I'm Ethan Greenberg here in the
bet MGM studio, joined alongside Cynthia Freeland in her most
of Beach, California, where it is early in the morning,
So thank you very much for joining us. It's not
too early. I like to be on East Coast time.
I gotta know what's going on. I can't be late. Okay,
(00:27):
fair enough. Well, you know, I'm excited for this podcast
that basically I'm gonna give a little uh, a little
staff shot of wats on tap. Obviously, we're gonna talk
Jets Panthers. We've incorporated Cynthia's numbers throughout the podcast, but
we're also just gonna talk different matchups, the vibes around
both teams, especially this week heading into week one, And
I just want to paint this picture for the audience.
(00:50):
At one forty four in the morning, East Coast time,
there was an email sent from you, Cynthia Freeland, that
had eleven pages, over thirty five hundred words of different numbers,
different stats, and I just want to know, like, how
long did that take to put together. Your girls really
excited about talking about actual football. So, you know, it's
(01:10):
been a while. Preseason football was I was glad we
had it, but Lud, I am ready for some real actions.
So I'm just excited. It's not gonna be that aggressive
every time. But it was a little aggressive, just a
little aggressive. It wasn't it wasn't maybe it was, maybe
it was, but even even still it was. It's very
beneficial to us, you know, to me cranking out there
or looking at some of these numbers before we start,
(01:32):
I've color coded. If you're watching, you can see some
of the yellow. We got some orange for the Panthers here.
This way, you know, I can keep the jets in
the Panthers separate. Well, this is what we have, all right,
We're gonna break each podcast down into four downs, right,
so you have first down, second out, third down, fourth down,
But before all of that, we have our opening kickoff,
and then at the end of the you know, after
(01:54):
fourth down. I guess, you know, this doesn't really make sense,
so maybe we'll incorporate it before fourth down. Are we
punting or or are we going for it? Maybe we're
kicking a field goal? If we're feeling spicy. So well,
we'll get there as the podcast rolls on. But let's
just start with our opening kickoff. It's been a while
since a regular season game has taken place in the NFL.
(02:14):
The Jets last played first week in January, week seventeen.
Now they're eighteen weeks. This is a completely different roster,
new quarterback, new head coach, and of course Cynthia you
know in the NFL, of course they're playing their former
quarterback in week one. I mean, you couldn't draw it
up any any more entertaining than this. Listen to me,
(02:35):
this is actually a win, win win. It doesn't often
happen like that. I think it was the right move
for Sam Donald. I think it was the right move
for the Jet. I think it was the right move
kind of for the entire league. This is a great
first game. This is not a team, it's not a rivalry.
Barely play the Panthers like once every what four years
or something like that, and it's interesting to see, you know,
how people evolve. So I actually think it's great for everyone,
(02:57):
Like it's it's great TV, it's great excitement for all
of us. So I'm I'm in I'm all in. You know,
we just went to the one shot. What is over
your left shoulder and what that says fantasy on it?
Like fantasy? Is it like a Fantasy football trophy? Listen?
You know, like this is the trophy we we play
in this Fantasy Live league on NFL Network and this
(03:18):
it's it's a monster. It's like it's gigantic. Where else
in my house? Am I gonna put this nowhere? It's gigantic? Yeah,
of course, come on the match. You gotta do it.
It's huge. It's actually kind of heavy. I'm gonna drop
it and hurt someone there. You don't don't toss it
like Brady did you know on the boat Graade, No
(03:40):
want to catch it. But that's the that's the two
thousand twenty league Champion trophy for you, right, yep, I
gotta send my title. And how many teams are we talking? Uh,
there's twelve in that one. And then there's another one
that we're in with the analytics people around the entire league,
the actual people who work for teams, and that has
fourteen people in it. So that one's hard to win too,
(04:01):
but last year too, because I've got to get that
dig in there. There's a there's a Giants guy on
our on our team, so maybe he's watching. Okay, all right,
you know what if hey, we we even though they're
the crosstown rivals, if you're a Giants fan and you're watching,
we appreciate it. We we like all viewership. Right, So
let's start with first down here. You mentioned Sam Donald,
(04:23):
but for the Jets, they draft Zack Wilson's second overall.
He's the new quarterback for the New York Jets with
the new head coach Robert Sala. So let's talk about
Zack Wilson in this Jets passing offense against this Panther's
past defense. And the Panthers have a young defense overall,
and you think about where they started in the first
round with J. C. Horne in the top ten. But
(04:44):
you know, before we get to the Panthers, you know,
I got ahead of my skis here. Let's start with this.
I found this fascinating you in this is like on
your first page of notes, your model, which I think
you said is run like is double ms and capitals millions. Okay,
so eighty one point six million simulations of the regular
(05:04):
season and you have Zack Wilson for favorite for rookie
passing yards and touchdowns, I do over Trevor Lawrence, which
you know whatever, he was drafted second and for versus first. Right,
So the interesting part there is I think this is
actually gonna be a really big strength of the Jets
if I were looking a little further through the season,
because you got to get the timing and the ability
(05:25):
to read defenses down. So I'm not suggesting it's gonna
come out every single week and through for three hundred yards.
I have about thirty nine hundred total yards for him.
That's a All projections in the beginning of the season
seemed low because remember everything is kind of put towards
a median, and then every week it either goes higher
or lower than that. So they all kind of started
an average. So for me, Zach Wilson at thirty nine
(05:47):
oh seven, very precise. Here, that's the kind of median
projection that leads all rookie quarterbacks. And that even assumes
I even pretended that they were going to put in
all the rookies to begin so even Trey Lance, even
with if Justin Fields were start, Nope, none of that.
He's number one. Wow. Alright that I actually get Jets
fans pretty excited, especially you consider how Zack Wilson played
(06:08):
this preseason. What did your numbers say about his performance
in the I guess he only played two out of
the team's three games. Yeah, really good. So p f
F Frank's him second and they're grading um. I kind
of do it a little bit different. I use like
this thing called wind share, which is kind of like
war in baseball or player efficiency ratings in the NBA.
So what I try to do is to see, like,
(06:28):
what's this average above other people and quarterbacks in those
valuable positions. So quarterback is always going to have the
highest relative you know, wind share number. So right now
for me, Zach Wilson's actually trending as the number it
goes with the other numbers as the number one highest
wind share quarterback amongst rookies. So that's ah. I liked
(06:48):
the performance. I also think the fit with Mike Lafleur
is really what drives that why, because what we saw
from college from b y U film was this really
good play actions, super efficient. He could read defenses using
play action, especially the type of play action that we've
seen MICHAELA fleur implement. We saw that in San Francisco.
He was incredible at it, like a ridiculous number. In
(07:12):
the preseason, Okay, I'm not preseason, he had a perfect
pass rating using it. No big deal, just perfect. But
I don't expect that to continue because that's just not
how it works, right, But ultimately it's going to be
a huge source of strength going forward. You know, you
mentioned the success and this type of offense and for
Zach Wilson, why Jets fans and why I think the
Jets ultimately drafted Zack Wilson. This is a part of
(07:34):
your statute, so I have to give credit where credit
is due. Wilson had a perfect passer rating on play
action passes using outside zone run concepts at b YU
and you know, the Jets are gonna love the outside
zone and we're gonna talk about that this show. But
that just gives you a glimpse as to what kind
of offense the Jets are gonna run. You mentioned you
(07:56):
mentioned play action, Well, how about Corey Davis? Right? Are
you somebody that really stretched the field last year with
the Tennessee Titans who run a similar offense with Arthur
Smith last year? Now, in Atlanta as the head coach
to what the Jets are probably going to implement this season. Yeah,
so well, first of all, we have to back up
one thing because I love offensive lineman and I love
(08:18):
when oh lines get better because that makes the whole
thing just look feel be way better. And I live
in southern California. I watched a lot of Alijah Vera
Tucker when he was at USC. That is a huge ad,
like figuratively and literally a huge He's a he's huge,
so it's a it's a huge at And also McKay
(08:39):
beckson being healthy. We we talked about last season a lot.
You know, it's all about that old line, the ability
to create some time and space so that you can
run any type of concept, let alone outside his own concept.
So the moves that were made for that old line
a plus. I'm very happy it's all going in the
right direction. You know, you don't fix everything in one
fell swoop. You need to keep working on it. And
(09:01):
all the ads of Morgan Moses that's a great contract.
These are really like savvy moves. I love. That's how
you make Corey Davis work. That's how you use the
fact Corey Davis if you look to see what he did. Okay,
there's a metric that's in the next thing, stats crimes.
It's like route yards per route run. And what that
means is are you running deeper routes? Are you being
(09:22):
used a lot? How efficient are you around the fielding?
What what are you doing right? Like? Where where are
you going? How are you used well? Corey Davis ranked
fourth in that metric, and the three guys in front
of him, yeah, they were all Pro Bowl. There's nobody deal.
So there's just a lot of utility there that can
be can be really implemented and once they get the
chemistry down. And one of those guys, A J. Brown
is one of Elijah Moore is really good friends. Going
(09:43):
back to All Miss. He's another guy Cynthia that I'm
very excited to see. I mean, if you watch training
camp every practice before he heard his squad, I mean,
he was making plays left and right. Doesn't play in
the preseason, but you look at his numbers at All Miss,
they are just absolutely discuss Let you know, aside from
the analytical numbers, you talk about eighty six receptions single
(10:05):
season school record at Mississippi. Coming after guy's like a J.
Brown and DK Metcalf who had immediate success in the NFL,
and yuys, you know just kind of your your standard
NFL receiver. I mean, whatever is in the water down
in Oxford, it's it's some good H two oh. It's
to quote Adam Sandler and the water Boy, it is
(10:26):
some high quality H two oh. Because Elijah More he
tore up the statue sheet and then he comes here
and he started making place from day one. I like
everything that was done from the oh line and in
the past catching situation. I think there, this is a
great You gotta build for the future, and you also
have to be mindful of the present. And I think
both the OH line and the receiving corps that was
(10:47):
done with a plus. Like if I were you know,
I'm grading it right because my brains matter A plus
on both. The interesting thing, look, every single rookie it's
gonna be it's they're gonna use is weird because they
had a weird last year. Last year was not normal.
And then we have an extra game this year, so
we're gonna look at Ricky's and we're gonna have them
a little bit of like a mathematical like sort of
(11:10):
asterix there because some didn't play last season, some had
very abbreviated seasons, some had super weird situations, So like
give them a minute to get into the league and
get acclimated and get everything going, because it's just going
to be it's just going to be a little weird.
Like the rookies last year didn't have preseason and they
didn't have any sort of normal training camp at all.
(11:30):
This year they have more normal when it comes to that,
but they didn't have a normal college season. So let's
just you know, well, we're we're gonna not expect him
to be your fantasy superstar from day one, but like
come week, you know, five six, then we're gonna we're
gonna talk about we'll start adding him to our fantasy
lineups and then you can get the big trophy. Went
Bed is now live in New Jersey and they're bringing
the excitement of went Las Vegas to online sports betting.
Get in on all your favorite teams, players, and sports.
(11:51):
From fool stip parlays to live in game odds on
every major sport. They have what you'll need to win.
Sign up today to receive a special offer risk three
one thousand dollars sports download the wind bat up now
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start winning winnet and the Pistol sports book, and gave
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com twenty one the older at President of New Jersey.
If you have someone you know has a gambling problem,
(12:13):
call one two seven er or seven one one seven. Hey.
If if Elijah more helps somebody get the Big Trophy,
that means the Jets offense, specifically Elijah Moore is doing
something right, which is music to Jets fans. Ears. You know,
we were talking a lot about the Jets offense because
of the new new quarterback, to new receivers. We didn't
even talk about Keeling Cole. But how about this Panther's
(12:34):
defense because they're gonna go up against a young defense.
Robert Salas said, they're extremely fast. We talked about J. C. Horne,
who had just a stellar year, even though if you
look at the stat sheet, he didn't really have a
lot of past defenses. This past season, he didn't have
a lot of interceptions, but he's just one of those
guys where you don't even throw to that side of
the field because of how good he is. Yeah, stats
(12:55):
when it comes to defensive backs just all over, and
so linebackers, coverage linebackers too. They don't really reflect the
reality because if if you're getting targeted a lot, that
means that they don't really respect you. The other quarterbacks
of the other you know, offensive plaguage, you know they're
they're throwing it to you. One of the things about J. C. Horne,
can you see my arm? He has incredibly long arms.
(13:18):
Sounds weird, but sometimes when you guys get these guys
who are real, like real long armed, he can like
back down things that are further away from him than others, right,
and he uses his body control exceptionally well. The Panthers
really liked him because of what they saw from his
body control. So he can get closer and in situations
and kind of scrum it up and be a part of,
(13:38):
you know, knocking people down, even if the status he
doesn't reflect that. So when they were throwing kind of
to to an area he could get to, then he
gets to and he just he's just he's like annoying,
like your you know, your brother would like, you know,
it's just not touching you, not touching you, but still
touching you. You know, j C. Horne and all the rookies.
You're gonna have a little bit of an adjustment period
(14:00):
as one does, right, Like Zack Wilson, to your point,
played exceptionally well in the preseason. Robert sala has made
it very clear throughout training camp and to this point on,
you know, the leading up to the first game, like,
there will be rookie moments, right, not all moments will
be glamorous, So expect that from not only Zack Wilson,
Elijah More also j C. Horne on the Panthers side.
(14:21):
But before um, you know what, I'm gonna save that
question for after second down. So let's move to second
down here, let's focus on the Jets run game. You
mentioned the offensive line. It all starts up front for
the Jets on both sides of the ball. But for
the offensive line now with Elijah Vera Tucker at left guard,
Connor McGovern loves this scheme. Kai Beckton entering year two,
(14:44):
the one guy I want to focus on is Morgan Moses.
And as we're recording this podcast, Robert Salis says, whether
it's Moses or George Fan at right tackle. We do
not know the answer to that right now. You're gonna
find out when the Jets play on Sunday at one.
It's Moses. It's Moses. Come on, Cynthia's Jane is Moses.
I mean, I don't know, don't even don't take the bait.
Don't take the bait. This guy's a great run blocker. Especially,
(15:07):
what do you want to do? Oh great, he's I
don't know. I guess I'm that's my opinion obviously, and
I think you go with like the better talent, but
you give everyone chance and rotating in a few different
types of looks. That's really smart. So it's not like
I'm saying that one is bad or whatever. But I
just think Morgans like very underrated run blocker, very highly
(15:27):
underrated run blocker. So I want to focus on Morgan
Moses because again I'm pulling up my cheat sheet here.
I think this contrast is interesting. PFF had him the
sixth highest run blocking great among tackles in the NFL
with minimum one blocking snaps, but on the contrary, his
number as a pass protector don't seem to be very
(15:49):
very good in comparison to the run blocking numbers, where
he's tied for ninth most pressures allowed among tackles in
two thousand twenty. Okay, let's put a little let's everything
needs con text, right, So sometimes when you get these
numbers and there you have to rank them, they just
they are what they are, right Like, if you have
allow thirty eight pressures, then you allow thirty eight pressures.
(16:11):
That's just what it is. But at the end of
the day, you have to add in context, who's standing
next to him, who was he going up against? What
was the situation were you on? Was it third and
twenty two? Because it's you know, I think that the
pass rusher is probably gonna know what's going on where
you were the other team blitzing a ton like, So
you have to put it in context and take that
run blocking and use it in this scheme and realize
(16:32):
that for the return on investment, if you can get
him too run block, then you're putting yourself in much
better situations for more favorable passing situations, so that the
defense has to stay honest and respect both the run
and the past. Way better way, but everyone's numbers look
way better if you're balanced. Yeah, and this is this
is why we have you. Right, you give us the
numbers and and you give us the context, because in
(16:53):
a vacuum the number is not great. But to your point,
everything does deserve context. And let's say it is Morgan
Moses at right tackle on Sunday at Carolina. What do
you make of this Jets offensive line? Assuming it's fully
healthy with McKay Beckton at left tackle in year two,
Elijah bar Tucker Conumer Governed, Greg van Rowden and then
Morgan Moses. This is going to be a challenge this
(17:16):
week because this defense, the way that they've re done
their defense. And by the way, Brian Burns is a
very very good pass Russia. Kind of underrated league wide, didn't.
You don't hear his name kind of popping up as
much as you hear some of the other guys. But
it'll be interesting because they have a lot of defensive
looks as well. So it's a young line. They're just
learning how young meaning working together and you know, the
(17:38):
two most important facets, in my opinion, two most important
people on it are both first or second year players.
So it'll it'll take a minute. I don't think this
is going to be like, it's not gonna be like
last year, but it's going to be like, it's not
going to be like you know, it's not the Browns
old line, but it is all it is not last year.
So going in the right direction and then it's gonna
be it's gonna look a lot better because Zach Wilson's
(17:59):
any to execute a lot of different things is a
really good fit for who's teaching him, and who you're
taught by is very important. So I think that their
skill sets matching will make the everything will look better.
Everything will look better. I'm glad you mentioned Brian Burns
because he's somebody that we should definitely talk about, especially
(18:19):
now that the Panthers have added Hassan Reddick in free agency.
And the interesting part about Hassan Reddick is that from
two thousand seventeen to two thousand nineteen it felt like
his numbers were decent. Ny explodes double digit sacks twelve
and a half in two thousand twenty. Then you have
Derek Brown in the middle. There. Do you like this
(18:40):
Panthers defensive line and where do you give the matchup
advantage right now as we record? So what I like
whenever a team does what the Panthers did. They created
a list of attributes that they wanted to execute for
so they said, we want to run this defense. This
is our theory, this is what we know how to teach,
(19:01):
this is what we're good at coaching. We're gonna select
for those things. Speed is one thing that it sounds
really silly, but like they want really fast guys. Speed
that they love that. I know everyone says that, but
not everyone really knows what that means. And they went
for on the pads, on on the field speeds, right,
so not just like forty times of talking about like
(19:22):
measured speed over the course of actual game footage, So
they went first speed. I think having a cohesive strategy
is the best way to sell if we're all rolling
in the same direction. Boat goes that, how many puns
can I make? Whatever? Like so silly, but but but
I like what they've done, and I think once they
jell together, it's going to be a I actually think
(19:43):
the Panthers are a sneaky underrated potential playoff team, especially
in that division with kind of the Falcons and potentially
the Saints having some down down years. So I do
think that the Panthers are, in my opinion, sneaky, sneaky good.
So I do think that they have a a very
strong team, and I think it's you know, losing to
the Panthers is if that happens, it's that's like, it's
(20:06):
not losing to a team who didn't win any games
last year. It's not losing to a team is going
to be middling. I think that this is at least
about an above five team, if not playoff bound. I
feel like that's the vibe around the Panthers right now,
where when you talk to and you hear different analysts
talk about the Panthers like they're a sneaky good team.
They're young, they're together, right, you know, they put all
(20:28):
the pieces there. Now you have to execute. But the
pieces make good sense on both sides of the ball,
and that leads me to third down. But before we
get there, I just want to say again, this is
the game preview podcast. I'm e Think Greenberg, Cynthia Freeland.
This is presented by wind Bet Betting as a team
sport bet together at wind Bet. So moving on here
to the Panthers offense, you gotta we gotta talk about
(20:51):
Christian McCaffrey, right. I mean, this would not be a
game preview podcast if we were not to talk about
the third player in NFL history with a thousand rush
yards and a thousand receiving yards, which of course happened
in two thousand nineteen. Yeah, so obviously it's coming back
from injury. In twenty nineteen, no offensive player played more
(21:11):
nor no non quarterback offensive player played more snaps than McCaffrey. Uh,
he's a The problem with McCaffrey when you're trying to
defend him, I've seen you know, you know who's actually
really good at is Todd Bowles because that we've seen
him do that now at Tampa Bay. But the problem
with defending Christian McCaffrey is that we don't know what
he's added to his game in the season, right, Like
(21:33):
with Joe Brady, who if you remember the L s
U offense, you know, back when Joe Burrow was just
absolutely letting it up. That guy knows how to game
plan for some passes and some runs, and Christian McCaffrey
does both. So at the end of the day, it's
going to be difficult to see what happens with him,
and especially you know, I actually love the Jets defensive front.
I wish that Carl Auston were there obviously, but you know,
(21:54):
I think they've done made a lot of great moves.
I don't think it's going to be this game where,
you know, I I just I don't think it's gonna
be Look, I don't think it's gonna look bad. I
just think it's going to It's really hard to stop
Christian McAffrey, even if you're Todd Bowls with a Super
Bowl winning defensive front, so it's it's or superwoarning defense, right, So,
you know, Christian McCaffrey is just a very hard person
to defend, especially given the the they did some things
(22:18):
on their on line to help their on line is
not complete, it's not, but Christian McCaffrey does erase a
lot of those problems. And he's somebody that's you got
to count for on every single down. He's got speed,
he's got strength, quickness, he's got it all. That. The
number that stood out to me most Cynthia was, you know,
he played in three games in two thousand twenty and
(22:40):
last year the Panther scored about five more points per game.
They had four hundred sixteen yards with him per game
compared to three hundred thirty four yards without him. They
converted nearly fifty percent on third down. I mean, and
this is just somebody who played, like I said, in
just three games, So that the numbers are staggering with
(23:03):
such a small sample size, at least to somebody who's
not very analytical like me. Yeah, look that the numbers
are staggering for good reason. The Panthers also have a
really good wide receiving core. You know Robby Anderson, who
Jets fans are very familiar with, but d J. Moore
is like super underrated just league wide. Nobody talks about
him as much. He draws coverages very efficiently and effectively
(23:24):
creating more space for everyone else. So I and even
Terrice Marshall's Jr. Who they drafted this year, remember l
S you ties back to Joe Burrow. They worked together there,
so to Joe Brady sorry, and Joe bro Um, but
ultimately Terace Marshall, he's kind of like a possession receiver.
He's got that big body and you know, he's a
good addition to the other receivers that they had along
(23:45):
that core too, So they're they're they're pretty stacked when
it comes to those key skill areas, even though we
don't other than Christian McCaffrey. I don't know. Sometimes you
I've been doing a bunch of fantasy football drafts, You're like,
you forget about DJ Moore, you know, you forget about
you know, other people, and maybe not Jets fans, but
others might forget about Robbi Anderson. You know, like these
are good receivers, like very good receivers, so and both
(24:07):
and both those guys had over a thousand yards receiving
last year. DJ Moore a couple of number stood out
to me. He averaged eighteen yards of catch, just north
of their last year, fifth in the NFL, and receiving
yards since two thousand and eighteen. I mean, those are
some legitimate numbers for d J. Moore, And I think
you're right. I don't think he necessarily gets the credit
that maybe he's deserved, because when you look at his numbers,
(24:27):
he's a very productive player. I think that's the matchup
that a lot of Jets fans are keying in on
the Panthers receivers. Like you said, d J. Moore, Robby Anderson,
Terris Marshall against this Jets young young, young young one
more young young cornerbacks group, and that's going to be
(24:49):
a big matchup for the Jets. Yeah, I think. I mean, look,
I I definitely we're not gonna get through this down
without talking about I love Sheldon Rankins that we're going
to talk about him in the kind of the impact
I think he's gonna have because you gotta like have
some time to throw the ball. So maybe that's you
know that right pressure, you get the bet, you know whatever.
So in this in the middle of their old line
(25:09):
is a spot. But I do think, you know, look,
young young corners mean they need to learn a little bit.
So it's just tricky because if you want to put
it in fantasy football terms with Teddy Bridgewater last year,
the Panthers had three top twenty five wide receivers, kind
of sneaky and didn't When I looked at that, I
was like, is that true? Like I had to look
at it twice, right, So did I put the right
(25:31):
numbers in there? I know, I'm like, is that does
that even? Does that even look right? But you know,
so it's kind of you just don't think of them
as this like passing powerhouse, but maybe we should because
the numbers support it. Winn Bet is now live in
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(25:52):
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(26:12):
seven right? And that kind of leads us into fourth down,
which is Sam Donald right and the Panthers passing game,
and you talk about Sheldon Rankins. This is this is
the down to talk about Sheldon Rankins, because the Jets
are gonna have to get home to Sam Donald in
order to have a chance to win this game. With
interior pressure from Quinnin Williams and Sheldon Rankins. To your point,
(26:35):
Carl Austin would have been a huge part of any
game plan. Definitely this week when you look at that
Panther's offensive line, I feel like talking to different people
the most. The bigger question on the group comes on
the left side of their offensive line, which is where
Carl Lawson would have lined up. Fun fact, right now,
their right tackle, who they franchise sagged and subsequently paid. Um,
(26:58):
he's from my hometown and from a very small town
in Michigan. So like from my town. Um so is
like the only person in the league like ever so
Taylor Molten. But is there a day named after Taylor
Molten in your hometown yet? Like we have like four
stop signs, like three lights something like that, so probably
you know, maybe like maybe the railroad crossing, who knows,
(27:18):
but you know whatever. So the right side is good,
that he's a good right tackle. The left is spicy,
So you're right, the Carl Lawson, the loss of Carl
Lawson would will be felt in that specific spot more so. Um.
The interesting part for me on all of this is
the interior stuff is where we've seen Sam Donald have
(27:39):
some issues. Right, So Sam Donald, the pressure was coming
from all over, but it was especially daunting when it
was kind of coming in his face. Most quarterbacks, that's
true for outside pressure, they don't really see, so typically
they won't feel it doesn't mess up their mechanics. So
it'll be interesting to see how My reason for liking
Sheldon Rankin so much is that as he was injured,
(28:00):
people kind of forget that he's really fast. So his
first you know, he had achilles injuries, right, so you
know his first burst and I like burst because bursts,
like like Aaron Donald is the most bersty player to
ever play, right, So and you see that that birth,
you see it, it's like twitch whatever, And I think
people don't recognize that Sheldon Rankins is more twitched up
(28:22):
than than people give him credit for. Right, So you know,
he in that in that Saints defense, They've got a
lot of twitchy guys, right. Cam Jordan's very fast as well,
so maybe it didn't look as fast as it will
look for when he's now that he's a jet. Well,
you know, Sheldon Rankins had eight sacks a couple of
years ago. That's a very impressive number, especially coming from
the interior of the offensive line and against his Panther's
(28:45):
offensive line. The Jets defensive line knows that that they
have their work cut out for them because of the
young secondary in the back end, and that's probably gonna
be the case throughout the course of the season. But
you know, Cynthia, in terms of Donald, I I wonder
what the numbers from your perspective say about him, because
if you look at the box score and you look
(29:05):
at it, you go to Pro Football Reference, you go
to NFL dot Com, you look at his numbers. The
numbers aren't aren't great, right, there's no way to sugarcoat that.
But then you hear people talking about Sam Donald. You
called it a win, win, win, win for the Jets,
win for the Panthers, win for Sam Donald himself. The
the book around Sam was, well, was it you know,
was it coaching? Was it the supporting cast out wide?
(29:28):
Was it the offensive line? And it feels like across
the league, and if you're the Panthers, you're hoping that
the glimpse of talent that you saw, especially like Sam's
rookie year towards the end of the season and throughout
his career with the Jets, you hope that is what
is what transpires more consistently. But what the numbers, like,
(29:49):
how how do you break down a player like that
where maybe it's hard to break down analytically the situation
that he was in. So first of all, let's the
number that's interesting to me is what the expectations say
from a money standpoint, right, So you know, the trade happened,
and then they franchise tagged him, so it was like
it ends up being an average of like about ten
(30:12):
million a year for him, which is the same as
Washington is paying for Ryan Fitzpatrick, which is the same
as many teams are paying for if you look at
that ten If you use that ten number, it's the
same as many teams are paying for a backup. Now,
the Panthers were drafting eight eighth was not in this draft.
We all knew that wasn't gonna be good enough to
get up high, Like what would you have had to
(30:33):
get to get even to three, which would be monstrous.
So they were looking at it as Okay, who can
we get that can execute the stuff we want to
do and be in the right price range so that
we can make our whole team better. Because getting J. C.
Horne then made a lot more sent from them from
like a whole strategic standpoint. A j boy, of course
they brought over. I believe he's still suspended. That's whatever.
(30:54):
Two games, whatever, one two games, something like that. So
the idea of creating more value for every one and
being able to say, Okay, we're gonna take a shot
on this person whose skill set matches exactly what Matt
Rule and Joe Brady know how to coach. And that's
that's to me where the wind wind comes in. Now,
Sam Donald's numbers have to all be taken in context.
How many times does someone get mono? Like, not a
(31:17):
lot like there are there's not a lot of friends
in the lifetime. Probably no. I mean, like you know,
many come as a quarterback at Mondel while they're playing
in the NFL, like this doesn't happen like and then
there was a strange season, like just a lot of
strange nus. Last year was also a strange NUS as well, right,
So I mean everything was backwards and you didn't get
(31:37):
a chance to have like the normal sort of learning
curve because there was no you know, no communication. It
was all zoom whatever. So long story short, like wipe
the clean this leak the slate clean, and then say
what does Sam Donald do well? Well, since usc Sam
Donald's been a really good deep passer. He needs a
little time to do it, because most people do. He's
not quite the off platform thrower that like say a
(31:59):
Patrick Mahomes or even a Josh Allen is. He needs
to get his his his base set. He needs his
fundamentals right then he can. Then He's a very good
deep passer. First year when he was playing under Todd Bohls, like,
we saw a lot of good deep passing. He took
a lot of sacks and he kept going right and
could connect in those deep routes. So deep routes was
game changing plays. Those are really the areas where you
(32:19):
can totally turn things around very quickly. So I think
what will happen is Joe Brady will be able to
kind of rehab. Remember Joe Burrow had some gnarly numbers
the year before he came to l s U. L
s U obviously was stacked with like a bunch of
first round talent absolutely everywhere, but that aside, he still
was able to craft an offense where Joe Burrow had
(32:39):
historic numbers from you know, not so great numbers elsewhere,
so I think it'll look better Like I actually think
Sam Donald, this could be. You know, I'm not gonna
call it Ryan Tannehill, but it's gonna be, you know,
because to me, when you talk about Ryan Tannehill, it's
like there's also like you know, it's not that just
Derrick Henry Julio Jones. Now you know, I'm not gonna
(33:01):
go that far, but I am going to say it's
gonna be more towards that trajectory, all right, some high
praise also, I mean, you're right. You did see the
glimpses throughout his Jets career and his rookie year and
then even last year the two off platform throws that
I think about where week two against the forty niners
and then week three against the Colts when he bought
some time with his feet. So I mean, this is
(33:23):
this is an entertainment business. Everyone for this. But he
got set on those right on the run and off
platform different right when he can get set, as long
as he can get set deep bob bam, it's it's smoking.
But and look sometimes you just got like you're better off,
like like everyone's I think, I truly think and I'm like,
this is not in any way, shape or form like hyperbole.
(33:45):
I think it is one of the first win win
wins that I've seen in since I can remember. When
it comes for a trade. I think that sentiment the
win win win is kind of what everybody thinks. That
seems to be the consensus about the trade. And you know,
to wrap up our first episode of the game Preview podcast, Cynthia,
where do you think the biggest mismatches for the Jets
(34:07):
and what mismatches then do the Jets have to take
advantage of to give themselves a chance to come back
home and host the Patriots one and all. Well, I
think that the corners, the Jets corners in this matchup
are going to be a tricky one because it would
seem that getting Christian McCaffrey going and then using the
(34:27):
past game to kind of get Sam Donald back in
his groove, it's a little poetic, right. I wouldn't be
surprised if they have some Sam to Robbie packages to
you know, capitalize on the the sort of fun of
all of it. Right, Like, you know, you you go
back and it's like hey, like like they're coming to
our place and We've got this big cat surper and
(34:48):
he needs to see you score a touchdown, Robbie, you know,
like something like that. So you know, I I would
imagine those corners are going to get targeted quite a
bit because I think they're trying to get his get
his groove back. It is Mojo backs. I think that
that's probably But then on the other side, I'm telling you,
I think you're gonna see some really nice pressure up front.
I do think the Jets defensive front is going to
(35:09):
be a strength that we're gonna talk about all season long.
And I'm really I am excited to see what happens
with the receivers and the past game. And I am
so stoked to see Zack Wilson. I'm telling you, like
week five, weeks six, it's gonna be like I'm gonna
want to talk about him in every single down. I'll
try to work it out, like I'll try to end
around you to get it. But you know, in this
first one, I'm I'm looking at this front because that
(35:30):
is Robert Salace, bread and butter, and I love it.
And I also know sneaky good. Like I'm I'm really
excited to see a really good. Um, it's on ESPN,
but it's a great story about Solid this weekend too.
It's my teath. Hey, the energy is high around one
Jets Drive. Cynthia is bringing the Jews from California Hermosa
Beach and that's how we close the first episode of
(35:51):
the Game Preview Podcast presented by Wind. Bet Betting is
a team sport bet together a win bet Jets Panthers Sunday,
one pm in week one. Cynthia, thank you again and
and we'll see you next week.
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