December 3, 2025 • 47 mins
Gregg Rosenthal and ESPN's Bill Barnwell preview the Week 14 late and primetime games starting with the Bears at the Packers followed by Eagles at Chargers on Sunday Night Football (09:55), Texans at Chiefs on Sunday Night Football (22:10), Broncos at Raiders (33:20) and Rams at Cardinals (38:35).
Note: time codes approximate.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we love a good day
night doubleheader. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesleyan
podcast studio talking to my friend for the second time today. Yes,
you read him at ESPN, you listen to his podcast,
Bill Barnwell Show, and he's been maybe the defining NFL
(00:27):
writer of his generation. I'll say it. I did his
podcast earlier in the day. Everyone check that out. And
you're here to join me Bill to talk a really
good five pack of games.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Welcome to the show.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
Thank you, Greg. What an intro. I think of myself
as the defining writer NFL writer, at least of my
own household.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
No, I'm trying to think who else it would be.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
This is a podcast for another date.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Like Greg, Bishop is a sneaky one in the mix,
you know, I'm Connor.
Speaker 2 (00:58):
Connor Or is great.
Speaker 3 (01:00):
But I'm saying, yeah, I'm not.
Speaker 1 (01:04):
I'm not really right anymore. But we're not going to
talk about that. We are going to talk about doubleheaders.
So the Bears and the Packers, they're playing twice over
the next eighteen days, or at least, you know, after Sunday,
they're gonna have a Thursday night game to cap this
like two for and we're going to talk also later
(01:25):
about the Monday night game, the Houston Kansas City, the
Sunday night game. It's gonna be great, But I think
we have to start with this Packers game. Packers are
favored by six and a half. It's the Kevin Burkhart
Tom Brady game in the afternoon, and the Bears continue
to ascend in terms of the quality of the opponent. Yes,
I'm putting the Packers over the Eagles at this point,
(01:45):
and ascend in terms of the importance of the game.
What concerns you because that's a pretty big number the
Packers are favored by in a game where you know,
the Bears are the number one seed in the NFC.
If the Bear let's say, don't even cover that number
where it's more than a touchdown in this game, what
do you think would go wrong for the Bears for
(02:07):
them to lose by two scores.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
Let's say their defense would stink. And unfortunately, Greg, we
talked about this as we were taping my show earlier.
The Bears defense might stink. It might actually be a
bad defense. So stat I would refer to here is
points allowed per drive on drives that do not end
in fumble recoveries or interceptions. Basically, what do you do
(02:31):
when you don't force a turnover. The Bears are twenty
ninth in the NFL in points allowed per drive by
that metric, so basically their defense is turnover or bust.
And thankfully, they have the highest turnover rate in football,
second highest rate of any team over the last ten seasons.
So they force a lot of turnovers, which is very good.
(02:51):
The problem is they are playing a Packers team which
has the fewest giveaways of any offense in football this year,
just seven turnovers this entire season for the Packers' offense. Now, admittedly,
when they have turned the ball over, it has been
at disastrous times, probably costs them a game against the
Browns earlier this season. Jordan Love, he's known for putting
(03:14):
the ball in danger in moments where you don't typically
want the ball to be in danger. But this Packers
team protects the football really well, and to me, that
is kind of the only way the Bears have played
defense well this season. Now they are getting back Jilan
Johnson who came back last week. Kyler Gordon is back,
you might be able to make the case that they
are a more complete defense perhaps than they were earlier
(03:37):
this season, But I just don't think that's a great
matchup for what the Bears want to do on the
defensive side of the football.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
No, I agree, and I want to see if the
Packers can kind of continue the Christian Watson led evolution
of this passing attack. And I do think their size,
like and Dad Tavian Wicks, and at some point obviously
Jayden Reied isn't adding sites to the mix, but Hill
add a certain sort of dynamism. But can this offensive
(04:06):
passing attack get reliable because the numbers would tell you
Jordan Love has been reliable this year, but the eye
test and just the quarters at a time has at
a time where this offense just goes away is not
baked into those numbers, And so I do want to
see that. The thing I'd be most worried about, and
(04:27):
you got to it, was the pass rush for the
Bears is probably the biggest weakness I think on their
entire fifty three man roster, and Jordan Love, while protected
this year, has easily the best numbers in the NFL
at any quarterback, like everyone thinks of Jared Goff as
the ultimate pressure non pressure quarterback split right now. Even
(04:51):
though you have the image of Jordan Love making some
good plays like while backing up, he actually has the
biggest splits of anyone, under pressure or not. And I
don't think the Bears are to apply a lot of
pressure in this game.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
I don't think so either. I mean, the one thing
I would say maybe is that this would have been
such a good matchup for Tucker Craft against a Bears
team that's going to be missing at least one starting
linebacker in Tremaine Edmonds, if not too t J. Edwards
has come back to practice, which would be a major
help for the Bears. But you do want to throw
on their linebackers, want to throw in the middle of
the field on them, and we'll see if Luke Musgrave
(05:23):
can be that guy. Josh Jacobs of course can catch
the football, though he's had kind of a rough season
for the Packers. But you know, you flip it, Greg
and you mentioned that the weakest spot on the Bears
lineup is their pass rush. The only other position that
comes to mind for me is left tackle, where the
Bears are now on their third left tackle of the
season and the Packers have a pretty good pass rusher
(05:47):
who might be able to cause Caleb Williams some trouble
in this game.
Speaker 1 (05:52):
I thought you were going to go The biggest weakness
is like their passing game, which is more general or
get real spicy and say their quarterback or something. Because
we hadn't hit on NFL Daily the comment by Ben
Johnson that they're winning in spite of their passing game,
which the next day because he knew that got a
lot of run in Chicago and nationally, he pointed out
(06:15):
how happy he is with Caleb Williams, that it wasn't
about Caleb Williams and that like he's making good decisions,
which I think, for the most part is true. The
decision making has been good. He is last in the
league Caleb Williams in completion percentage over expected. That matches
the eye test that the ball just isn't going where
he wants it to go enough. What is your level
(06:37):
of concern against this Packers' defense throwing the ball because
I will get to the run game. I think the
Bears will be able to run the ball in this game,
but you're gonna need Caleb Williams to make some play.
Do you agree with Ben Johnson's assessment.
Speaker 3 (06:51):
Yes, and no. I'm probably a little more pessimistic maybe
than Ben Johnson is about I do think he's making
the right decision of fair amount, but I think he's
making the safer decision a fair amount of the time.
Especially early in the year, even when they were on
Monday Night Football, you saw trade and pointing out, hey,
like this is the time to take a shot, Like
you're getting not going to lean on this over and
(07:12):
over again, but you're getting quarters. You a deep post,
that's where the ball should.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
Be going, and.
Speaker 3 (07:18):
You know there's something wrong with taking those checkdown He's
taking the underneath thirst necessarily. Obviously a short completion is
better than a sack, but you're only going to get
so many chances per game for those explosives. And the
reality is, unfortunately, like you said, Caleb Williams is missing
enough of his throws that they're going to need those
explosives not only in the run game, but also in
the past game to sort of make Hay Against the Packers,
(07:41):
he has a twenty two point one percent off target rate.
That's the time with Michael Pennix basically for the worst
in football. But when he gets pressured. Now everyone is
going to put a higher off target rate up when
they get pressured. His off target rate when he's pressured
is thirty seven point eight percent. The only player in
the NFL who has a worse off target right when
(08:02):
Houston pressure is Aaron Rodgers, who is actively trying to
avoid getting hit at all costs. So my concern is
really more game flow than Caleb William's talent. Like if
there's a scenario where the Bears got up fourteen to
nothing in this game early, and the Packers are one
dimensional and the Bears to run the football, and Caleb's
(08:23):
throwing off a play action, He's throwing off boots. He's
not throwing in third and long while he's trailing the
entire game. That's gonna be fine. I think they will
have opportunities to throw the football. Caleb is a talented player.
He's made some really impressive throws this year, and he's
gonna be in control. But if the Bears do get
behind early, they have to abandon or at least sort
(08:44):
of not you wias hefling on the run as I
normally would, Caleb's dropping back on second down on third
down there and second and long third and long a ton.
That is the sort of situation where I feel like
the pass rush can ruin the game for the Bears,
especially with Micah Parsons against their tackles.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
It sounds like we're both a little skeptical that the
Bears can pull this off. I'm a I'm a fan
of Bill you know, he he does it all in
that little jag right there, you referred to a big
internet you know, storm over someone doubting the great Mina
chimes our friend about.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
But yeah, it is stupid attacking.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
You know, quarters coverage with deep ball, you pivoted naturally
earlier to the left tackle position.
Speaker 3 (09:32):
Yes, yeah, you could just put coach in your Twitter handle.
No one checks it. No one's like, oh, no, one
verifies whether you're a coach or not.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
That's a great point.
Speaker 1 (09:41):
And you also know, you know, got a nice dig
at Aaron Rodgers, which lets me do a stat that
I forgot to do on the first part of the show,
which that he has completed exactly one pass under pressure
in the last three games combined, which is just every
All right, we have to move on from this game,
but I cannot wait to watch it.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
Jordan Rodriegh.
Speaker 1 (09:58):
We we let a different person pick which game is
the number one draft pick of what game they're going
to watch, and you know, quote unquote cover on our
show every week, and she had the number one pick
this week. I think she made the right choice with
the Packers and the Bears. That would have been my
pick as well. But I am very excited to attend
at SOFI Stadium my first game this season there, at
least since the barn Burner Chargers Saints preseason game Chargers Eagles.
(10:23):
The Eagles are favored by three. Of course, it's your colleagues.
I know you're tight with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman.
Maybe that line is baking in justin Herbert's wrist injury,
but you don't hang with with Joe did just Joe
fucking Troy Akeven know who you are?
Speaker 2 (10:42):
Do you think.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
That's a good answer to that. If I say yes,
I'm bragging and if I say no, I'm being honest,
And it's a little sad, So let's just leave it
to a mystery.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
I think humbole no is better.
Speaker 1 (10:56):
Unfortunately, it's almost a shot at them because if they
really know ball, you know, they would know. I bet
Troy Aikman does. I don't know about Joe buff That's
that's actually my take him.
Speaker 3 (11:05):
I I don't think.
Speaker 1 (11:08):
No, I think Troida, I think I think that line
is baking in Herbert playing or probably playing. So, yeah,
he's dated, he's day to day. The reports from Dan
Graziano ESPN is like, you know they're gonna take it,
and he's very hopeful.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
He thinks he can do it.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
I just watched him play an entire game with a
broken left hand and he held the hand away from him.
Watching that on replay was incredible because he was literally
holding it up. Wally was getting sacked on the other
side of his body. So if he can do that,
he's playing in this freaking game. He's a badass. And
here's one thing I didn't get to on your show
bill because we didn't talk Chargers. You know, for for
(11:47):
all the talk over the years about Herbert, you know
they're doing him dirty. They don't give him enough weapons,
you know, they're not supporting him. I like where this
defense is at. Obviously a good defense, it's healthier, helps
out a quarterback. We got the offensive line problems, we know,
but they brought Jamari Sawyer at left tackle last week
might have stabilized things a little bit. You're giving up
(12:10):
some run blocking to get the pass blocking might have
stabilized things a little bit. Trey Pipkins' is back, and
this group of weapons is great. Like they have five
they have four guys over five hundred yards right now receiving,
including Aronde Gatston who's a Rookie of the Year candidate,
and Kimani Videl is looking great in the backfield. And
we might get Amri in Himton like he's got a
lot to work with. It's Herbert's year. I think he
(12:32):
can do this. I think he can get this win.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
He's got one hand though, yeah, and all the other stuff,
but he has one hand. He has a hand in
a Nintendo Power glove and he has one hand to use.
Now you can win with one hand. We saw him
play well last week with one or play well enough
with one hand. I guess the place I would start
with this, Greg is knowing your quarterback is compromise maybe
(12:58):
or at least limited the very least. And given that
we just saw the Eagles get run over by the
Chicago Bears last week, do you think the Chargers whether
it's Monty Vidal or like you said, perhaps they were
returning Omerian Hampton. Do you think they try to lean
super heavy into the run and just try to win
the Greg Roman way and just go super run first,
(13:20):
the way he might have a few years ago in
San Francisco or in Baltimore or then I guess another
question is do you think they can do that? If
that's their game plan and philosophy heading into the game.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
I think they will try.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
Yes, I have my doubts whether they can. I think
Vidals like played better than I ever would have expected.
I think he's gonna have a question good career, and
if you add Hampton to the mix, that's a great group.
But even last week against the Raiders, to me, it
was more about him breaking tackles than it was about
the blocking the Eagles if you're going to beat them defensively,
(13:53):
and I'm not I'm not selling all my Eagles defensive
stock because of that one game or even the last
two games. Like I do think it's probably better done
on the ground. I do have my doubts of this
Chargers offensive line protecting for four quarters against this Eagle's
pass rush. Even if I think they're like upgraded maybe
(14:14):
from where they were three weeks ago, where it was like,
really just destitute.
Speaker 3 (14:20):
Yeah, I mean saw your play left tackle in the past.
He did a reasonable job. I was sort of surprised
they did not go back to that earlier. I mean
they were playing Trevor Penny at left tackle before they
gave Salier a shot, which never really made sense to me.
I do agree that it's going to be tougher for
them to succeed on the run. The Bears game was
a lot of zone runs against the Eagles. They are
the second best team in football by EPA per play
(14:41):
on zone runs. The Chargers are sixteenth in EPA pri
play on those zone runs. And I would flip it
and think about what Vic Fangio does really well, and
it's disguised as coverages. I mean, pre post stop. He
wants to spin his safeties. He wants to even post snap.
He wants to mask what his safeties when his coverage
defenders were act doing. He wants to give the quarterback
(15:01):
as little info as possible. And that's been a difference
maker for Justin Herbert and this Chargers offense. They are
He's fifth in the NFL in total qbr are sat
over at ESPN. When he faces disguised coverages this year,
he's twenty first, well or sorry when he does not
face the Skuy's coverages, fifth twenty first when the coverages
are disguised, and so he'll put the ball in danger,
(15:22):
put the ball on a tight window. I do think
I'm a little concerned about that. But no, the Chargers
are working progress on the offensive line. But this Eagles defense,
you know, the key pieces are still there, but they're
still figuring out what their best personnel is. I mean,
John Campbell, who was a defensive Rookie of the Year
candidate earlier this year, basically been benched for n Kobe Dean.
He hasn't played at all, even played a defensive step
(15:43):
at all last week, even when they were getting run
over on the ground. They're integrating Jalen Phillips. Michael Carter
was in the lineup as a slot cornerback and then
kind of fell out of favor. We saw more Dori
Jackson from here and there. It just sort of feels like,
even though we're two thirds of the way into the year,
the Eagles are still trying to find what their best
personnel groupings are what they should be doing against you know,
(16:04):
bigger packages, what they should be doing in obvious passing spots,
And it feels like there's always at least one or
two spots in the lineup teams can attack. And so
for the Chargers, I just think it's, you know, can
they find Dori Jackson all that often? Can they find
the Kobe didan coverage all that often? Can they find
those spots that they can take advantage of before they
(16:25):
end up trailing in this game?
Speaker 2 (16:27):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (16:27):
Read Blanken schip is another one that Ali Connolly on
our recap show of those of the Black Friday Game
pointed out everyone should check out. By the way, Ali
and I are back, the Saturday Siko Show is coming
back for its second episode.
Speaker 3 (16:40):
On SAD There's Atlantic podcast.
Speaker 2 (16:42):
It is.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
It is quite exciting there by the way a ball
possession offense and I do want to flip and talk
about the other side, but is interesting when you think
about the Bears and what they did, maybe they can
do what the Bears did but in a different way.
The Chargers are second in the NFL. I was surprised
to see that in place for drive. So a lot
of that is justin Herbert making magic on third down frankly,
(17:06):
but yeah, Like, by the way, if he goes and
has an awesome game, and I'm leaving this open for
a lot of quarterbacks out there, Dak is in that mix,
Like if he has an awesome game on Monday Night,
you'll start hearing, Hey, why not justin Herbert for MVP.
I don't think it's that crazy in a year where
there's not like totally obvious guys.
Speaker 2 (17:24):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
On the other side, Philadelphia leads the league in three
and outs, and this is where you know you can
see the path for the Chargers winning because you don't
think that they'll need as many points. Their defense is
healthier right now than it's been all seasons, certainly at edge,
but they also have Elijah Molden, some key guys up front,
Tier Tart and Deshaun hand who have had injuries their
(17:46):
back one of their best quarterbacks are he still is back,
so they're just healthier. And one thing I saw last
week against the Raiders, they were a lot more I
know it was the Raiders, but they were more creative,
doing kind of the Mike McDonald type of stuff, and
like Blitze just getting a little more creative, which I
think could work against this Eagles offense.
Speaker 3 (18:07):
Yeah. I mean, you know, the Eagles are a different
offense without Lane Johnson. We've known that for a decade.
More than a decade at this point. They are a
different team. When Lane Johnson is not on the field,
he is not going to play in this game. And
this is not an offense that is the most how
can I put this nicely extensive? Good goodness? Maybe, and
(18:30):
I share to put it as well or realistic way
to put it. It's sloppy, it's inconsistent, it's exploitable, and
I mean the Eagles are a team that win by
dominating with their personnel. They are not a team that's
winning with their scheme, and so that could be limited
pass protection groupings. That could mean things you can exploit
with your blitzes, with your certain pressures. To your point,
(18:50):
there's a lot of ways I think you beat the
Eagles that are beyond just simply our guys are better
than your guys, because the Eagles have incredible personnel, especially
when everyone is helped, which is obviously not the case
right now. But I think for the Chargers, the thing
you're hoping to have this be is sort of the
opposite of what Simon of what you said about the
Chargers on the ball. Can you force the Eagles to
(19:11):
drive down the field with six or seven first downs?
Can you take away the explosives, which they have no
explosives in the run game right now. They have plenty
of explosives in the passing game. Doante Smithy had some
big games and Jake Brown has had some big catches
even over the past couple of weeks. If you can
take stuff away over the top and just forced gale,
it hurts forced s Tayklon Barkley, force the offensive line,
force the receivers to not drop passes, to not commit penalties,
(19:33):
to not allow sacks, not allow pressures, just to be
a grinded out offense. They're gonna make mistakes. They just
have not been consistent enough to pull that off. And
I trust that Jesse Mincher and the Chargers have that
kind of big picture ability and vision. I do think
they can execute that and do that throughout sixty minutes
of a football game.
Speaker 1 (19:53):
They've been really versatile this year. They've also been very streaky.
They started the year as one of the best defensively.
That about a month where they were one of the
worst defensive league. Now they're trending back towards being one
of the best. But one thing I like that that
you mentioned and that they can do is I think
change it up week to week and really build a
game plan.
Speaker 2 (20:12):
Right now.
Speaker 1 (20:12):
I think the veterans on this team, they've been in
this system for a while, and like I said, they're healthier.
If it's not obvious enough, I like the charges. Can
I ask you a question, yes, please very quickly.
Speaker 3 (20:23):
So if you pull Eagles fans, I would say about
ninety percent of them think that this is the twenty
twenty three collapse happening again. Yeah, how confident are you
that this is the twenty twenty three collapse happening again
to the Eagles?
Speaker 2 (20:38):
Not confident. I don't think it's going to be that
bad that that was crazy.
Speaker 3 (20:43):
It's going to be a little, yeah.
Speaker 4 (20:45):
I do.
Speaker 1 (20:45):
I think they'll find a way to beat the Raiders
and the Commanders a couple of times. Maybe they lose
one Commander's game, and like if they lose a playoff
game one and done, they're competitive. That was one of
the worst teams in the NFL by the end of
the season. It was so bad I've almost I can't
remember another situation like that where a team turned into
one of the worst teams in the NFL for the
last month of the season and like everyone just assumed
(21:07):
they were going to get blown out in the playoffs,
and then they did, and it was a team that
had a Super Bowl predigree.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
I don't think they're going to be like that.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
Like, I think they'll probably lose in more heartbreaking fashion
in these games.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
If they're going to.
Speaker 3 (21:17):
Lose, yeah, I mean I just last week they missed
an extra point that would have tied the game. They're
in position in the red zone of score Jalen Hurts
fumbles on the tush push the week before, they go
up twenty one to nothing on the Cowboys, their position
to get in the red zone and right again and
a penalty gets the fun things catch called back and
then they fumble on the next play. Like there's been
(21:37):
a fair amount of bad luck and the defense is
still playing well enough. I know they didn't play great
against the rum last week, but they have been good
enough that I'm not anticipating a Matt Patricia led collapse
here down the stretch, So they might be not as
good maybe as they looked earlier this year. But I
don't think they're going to have a collapse the way
they did in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (21:53):
And keep an eye on Nick Sirianni. I wouldn't be
surprised if he is calling the plays this week. I
know they're not going to announce it or anything, but
whether he's going to have a bigger hand. He's returning
to the place where he cut his teeth. You know
they have moved up up the highway from San Diego
to hear he didn't coach in so far.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
He doesn't go to the wrong stadium.
Speaker 2 (22:12):
Yes, but he was a charger for a long time.
Speaker 1 (22:14):
It's time for the Sunday Drive presented by Toyota. Let's
go places Texans in Kansas City. Chiefs are favored by
three and a half. It's the NBC A team Rico
Collinsworth no more.
Speaker 3 (22:28):
Do you know Chris Collinsworth?
Speaker 2 (22:29):
Okay, you do, personally, We got that checked out. Okay.
Speaker 3 (22:33):
I've had a conversation or two with him. I did
a panel with him at a conference once.
Speaker 1 (22:37):
I have never had a conversation with him, but he
once pre taped different segments for a Fantasy Show. It
was called The Fantasy Fix with Me and Tiffany Simon's
on nbcsports dot com about about eighteen years ago, where
he pre taped the segment kind of like Michael Jordan
is doing with Mike Rico, where he did it all
in one day and he had to just sit there
(22:59):
for twenty straight segments and ask us a question, Hey.
Speaker 2 (23:04):
Greg and Tiffany, who do you think is gonna? Okay?
That was a bad Chris was not bad. That was good.
Speaker 3 (23:11):
That was so much better than I could have done.
Speaker 1 (23:14):
Things should start for the Packers, Sam con Gotto or
I'm on Green or is like something like that. I
just love when that these two, these two teams are
playing each other right now is awesome because the the
Chiefs are just holding on for dear life and the
Texans are reborn. And yet whoever lose this game is
(23:35):
in a tough spot. Including the text, So what what what?
Speaker 3 (23:39):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (23:39):
Fascinates you most from this game?
Speaker 3 (23:41):
Oh? Greg, fascinating me, terrifying me, scaring me. The Chiefs
offensive line versus Will Anderson and Zaneil Hunter. So according
to the most recent reports, as we tape this on
Wednesday afternoon, here on the east, Josh Simmons has a
(24:02):
dislocated risk, probably not gonna play.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
I think he's going to IRS. The word is he's
going to IR. Is the expectation.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (24:09):
Typically you don't play with disslocated risk. I feel confident
on that one. Trey Smith Juwan Taylor both questionable. It
sounds like maybe the wrong side of questionable for this game.
Greg That means Jalen Moore according to Chi Speed reporters,
at right tackle, Mike Collendo at right guard. And Yes,
(24:31):
after spending the entire offseason trying to avoid this happening,
the Chiefs are expecting the wan Ya Morris experience to
happen again at left tackle against the scariest one to
two punch of edge rushers in all of football, in
Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter. It's a absolute nightmare for
(24:51):
the Kansas City Chiefs to have this happen against this
particular opponent.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
That's so well said and true, and I'm so.
Speaker 1 (25:01):
Spooked by the Chiefs that this all when you say
these things, it all just seems to be setting up well.
Speaker 3 (25:07):
Well.
Speaker 1 (25:07):
Of course, then Andy Reid's gonna come up with this
great game plan and we're gonna be talking Sunday night
about how did they overcome all of this?
Speaker 2 (25:13):
But you know how many times I've thought that this
season and then it but it hasn't happened. Like how
many times I've thought.
Speaker 1 (25:19):
Well, yeah, this is the moment where you know, when
it's not looking great, actually they're gonna do this, and
they don't. And I'll ask you this, like, do you
think Andy Reid's missing something here? Does he need a
little inspiration? It's almost like they've just run out of
ideas or something. Maybe having so many limitations this week,
(25:40):
they'll somehow come up with something crazy, like the Andy
Reid of old. I feel like we haven't been seeing that,
even though we've been seeing prime Patrick Mahomes. I don't
know if we've been seeing prime Andy Reid.
Speaker 3 (25:51):
Greg I'll tell you what Andy Reid just watched the show.
I will tell Andy Reid, Wow, what he needs to
do to win this game. He doesn't need Matt Nagey,
doesn't need a big staff out. Keep it very simple
for Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Run the damn ball
and run it from under center, and don't do your
(26:11):
shotgun runs, don't do your RPOs. Get underneath center and
run the damn ball. The Chiefs are the second best
offense in football by EPA per play on under center
designed rushes, and the Texans greg are twenty six in
EPA per play on under center design rushes. I don't
think there's anything they can do to stop those edge rushers.
(26:34):
We saw the Super Bowl last year, right like they
tried to chip with Kelsey. They tried to get it,
you know, tried to help out on their best player
in Jalen Carter and then have one on ones elsewhere.
It didn't work. Kelsey's on a good chipper. They had
fewer guys going out into routes. There wasn't anybody getting open.
And the Eagles, I'm sure the Chiefs were still losing
enough of their one on ones to the Eagles that
Mahomes was still getting sacked even though at some points
(26:54):
they were max protecting or keeping seven in protection. I
don't think you want to lean head into the pass
in this game. I think you want to try to
run the football. You want to try to give your
offensive linment as much help as possible. You want to
avoid third and long as much as possible. And I
don't know if that's going to work because this is
an inferior version of the Chiefs offensive line than the
(27:15):
one they've had at their best earlier this year. But
especially if you can get Trey Smith in the lineup,
I think you have to give it a shot, just
because to me, that's the that is the most plausible
way you can have a sustainable and successful offense against
this Texans.
Speaker 1 (27:29):
Steam Barnwell becoming a run the damn ball guy in
his dotage. You know who would have thunk it? Forget
Rams Panthers. Wow, that's the biggest upset.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
Of the year.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
I think.
Speaker 1 (27:41):
I think Pacheco looked better last week than he did
early in the season. He hasn't looked great for a
couple of seasons, I thought a couple of years. Just
to my eye, he had a little more juice last
week in limited snaps. They still were using cream out,
so he would be the guy if you can get
kind of the old version of Pacheco back on the
(28:01):
flip side, like can can Houston's offense continue to kind
of catch a groove of normality.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
Now they're mixing in.
Speaker 1 (28:12):
These dumb plays where they mess up in short yardage
or they have illegal formations or they're handing it off
to the tight end. There's still some real Texany stuff
in there. But whether it was Davis Mills or CJ.
Stroud last week, especially in the second half, they have
been pretty cohesive as just like a normal looking offense,
(28:34):
especially passing the ball, and they're getting more out of
Xavier Hutchinson and Jayden Higgins and Dalton Schultz, which I
think is really important to have kind of an array
of options for CJ. Stroud to go to. We know
Nico Collins is a badass. He'll probably match up on
Trent McDuffie for a lot of this game. It's a
pretty ordinary defense for the Chiefs, and so I do
kind of feel like the Texans are coming into their
(28:57):
own as just a normal offense.
Speaker 2 (28:59):
Do you think they can keep that going?
Speaker 3 (29:02):
I like, what do you say mix in dumb plays?
Like there's a section of the play sheet that just
has dumb plays do not call and Nick Kelly cannot
resist the urge to call that play in the wrong It's.
Speaker 2 (29:13):
Like poorly executed plays, just like in that Colts game.
Speaker 1 (29:16):
They could have won by a lot more if they
could just pick up a yard in third or fourth
and one, so it's not even necessarily to play call.
But they they're still not great, is my point. But
the rest of the they are moving the ball a
little bit.
Speaker 3 (29:28):
They are moving the ball, and so they've been way
more efficient on a play by play basis. And there's
a stat called success rate, which measures how often you
stay on schedule on the offensive side of the ball.
They are third in success rate on offense over the
last month of the year, even though Skills was playing
quarterback for three of those four games. And the way
(29:48):
they're doing it, to me is by getting another offensive
lineman on the field. They have leaned heavily into the
six offensive lineman sets, which number one. Their linemen aren't
very good. They're getting an extra one in the field.
He just creating a further path for edge rusher to
get to the quarterback. It kind of simplifies some of
your pass pro because you know, if you're going to
full slide, if you're going to try to get one
(30:09):
on ones, it's a little easier to have an extra
linment on the field so you can handle, you know,
some bigger fronts better. They've been running the ball more efficiently.
They have had a fifty five percent success rate with
six offensive linemen sets over the year course of the year,
second best rate in football. And for the Chiefs, I
think that's a really big problem because number One, they
(30:30):
want to live in nickel anyway, Like they'll play based
defense if they have to, but they want to live
with five six defensive backs on the field. A lot
of the Steve Spagnolo exotic stuff is going to come
out of nickel and dime packages, and so by getting
into six o line sets, you're basically daring them to
match with their base defense. And then you're limiting a
lot of what Spags can do with kind of his
(30:50):
exotic pressures. And then I think the biggest thing is
if you can avoid the third and long. That was
I think the biggest problem for the Texans last year.
They had six point two snaps per game on third
and eight plus and wow with their offensive line, that
was a nightmare. I mean, all those third and lungs
were disaster. They had fifteen of them in the two
(31:11):
games against the Chiefs last year and only converted four
of them. And so this year it's down to five
per game over the last four It's still not ideal
to your point. Still some sloppiness. Run game has not
been great. It's being maybe a tiny if better. But
if you can avoid those third and lungs, you're getting
away from the spags, the spags downs where he can
dial up his best stuff. You're getting away from the
places where you're going to be blitza ble, where your
(31:33):
tackles are going to be one on one. If you
can avoid those spots, this offense is going to be fine.
And by staying on schedule and having a high success rate,
you are avoiding those third and lungs, and so that's
going to make this a very tough matchup for the Chiefs.
If the Texans can pass the ball well on early downs,
even if it's not a big play, even if it's
just a three four five yard game, avoiding the negatives,
avoiding the penalties of avoiding the sacks, that's how this
(31:55):
offense moves forward.
Speaker 1 (31:56):
Yeah, this is I never count out Steve Beegno to
have the right game plan, but it's just an ordinary defense.
Speaker 3 (32:03):
They can I give you one more stack, great please,
Chiefs defense this year when they blitz thirty second in
the NFL in pressure rate, that is the tough part
for me with this Chiefs defense is that their identities
the perfect blitz at the right time. And I don't
think Steve Spagnolda has forgotten how the blitz. It's just
been way less successful when they have blitched. And any defense,
(32:25):
if you blitzer, you don't get home, you're in a
terrible problem. And so if the Chiefs are not going
to get home with their blitzers in this game, and
they have had a lot of trouble getting home with
their blitzeres this year, I would expect Jayden Higgins, David Hutchinson,
Nico Collins, even Dalton Schultz to have a lot of
favorable matchups downfield and see Stroud to find those receiving and.
Speaker 1 (32:44):
Just judging on eye tests, like the last month, the
Houston offensive line for all the griefs that they've taken
been like, yep, it's been pretty normal. I would say
it's been like a little below average. Ben Baldwin does this,
it's very hard to get met Yeah, where they have.
He combines three different offensive line metrics from Sports Info
Info solutions in PFF and the ESPN and they were
(33:07):
like twentieth and I was like that, that's great, that's normal.
Speaker 2 (33:09):
All right, that's gonna be an awesome game. I think
I'm taking the Texans.
Speaker 1 (33:12):
Let's take a quick break, and we're gonna be back
to wrap up the week fourteen slate That was the
Sunday Drive presented by Toyota Let's Go Place. Toyota is
all in all season, with another year of Toyota Game
Day Giveaways coming up. During this week's Sunday Night game,
(33:34):
the Houston Texans versus the Kansas City Chiefs, if the
first drive of the second half ends in points or
points are scored in the last two minutes of the
fourth quarter, one hundred fans will each win one hundred
and fifty dollars NFL gift card for this holiday season,
just in time to gift or grab the gear you love.
Terms and conditions apply. Enter for a chance to win
(33:57):
at Toyota Game Day Giveaways dot Com.
Speaker 4 (34:00):
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Speaker 1 (34:16):
Back on NFL Daily as we broke from the Bill
Barnwell Show earlier today, he said he had to go
to a coffee shop to do some prep. He's a pro,
and I could see that prep in this show. This
is this is the part of the show. It's got
to test you a little more. Broncos heavily favored at Vegas.
I feel like we've covered the Raiders too much lately
(34:38):
on this show. It's just been so bad. The Broncos
are obviously the more interesting side. Could this be a
rare okay, bear with me here. A revenge game for
bo Nicks and the Broncos, just against how bad they
looked against the Raiders last time. Everyone was making fun
of them for how terrible they look putting up like
two hundred yards of offense against the Raiders. So it's
(35:00):
a revenge game against expectations, and it's in the perfect,
you know, conditions of Allegiant Stadium.
Speaker 3 (35:08):
Greg. You know, I did go to that coffee shop
and I rewatched the Broncos Raiders games and weirdly everyone left,
everyone cleared out of the coffee shop because the game
was so awful. I think Patrick Graham had a really
good game plan against Bonnicks in that first game, contained
him in the pocket, didn't let him rush. He didn't
have a single scramble. I think his five attention it
(35:30):
was Niel downs and sneaks in that game, it was
taken away. The first read. Bonnicks was nine of twenty
for one hundred and thirteen yards and two picks when
he held the ball for over two and a half seconds.
It was a lot of basically daring Bonis to be
a quarterback. Go through your progressions, work out of the pocket.
That's not what Sean Payden wants Bonnicks to do. It's
not what Bonnicks wants Bonnicks to do. But the Raiders
(35:52):
showed that game plan, and so you would figure if
you're going to talk about a guy who's good at it,
justin guy who's good at you know, coming up with
stuff to counter what you want to do on defense.
With a week to watch that game and to look back,
I would imagine Sean Payton will be in pretty good
shape in terms of what they're game planning for the
Raiders in the matchup. So I do think it's a
(36:14):
proved game for bow Nicks, and I do think that
the Broncos will be better on offense, although a little
concerned about the run game without JK Dodam.
Speaker 2 (36:22):
Yeah, they haven't looked as good.
Speaker 1 (36:24):
The Raiders defensive numbers were pretty good coming out of
that game, for instance, like over the course of the
season they were slightly better than average considering their talent level.
Was a good coaching job by Pete Carroll and Patrick
Graham on that side of the ball. Since then, it
hasn't looked good. There's just not much push. I think
Sean Payton in much better conditions, and the conditions were
(36:45):
terrible that night. It was freezing, like it's just gonna
find too much offense for the Raiders to keep up.
Gino looks looks a little shell shocked out there, and
watching him against this Broncos team doesn't seem fair. Broncos,
like Miles Garrett are going after an NFL record. They
have a real chance here, Yeah, to get the NFL
(37:06):
team sack record. And you know who's helping out every
week when they face another defense and helping their sack numbers.
It's Gino Smith and the Raiders. It's just like a
walking seven sacks to start the game. It's tough to watch, Like,
what do you like when you see this Broncos defense
at their best.
Speaker 3 (37:24):
I mean, you didn't even mention that they didn't have
Pats or ten. I believe good point the first game
for these two teams. So now you're adding the raining
defensive player of the year back to a game where
it felt like the Raiders could have played for forty
quarters and maybe not gotten to twenty one points, which
is probably what they needed to win that game. I mean,
(37:45):
you're hoping maybe the chip Kelly firing changes some things.
I know that there's some reports this week that they
were just running the chip Kelly offense all along? Are
they running the Carrol offense all along? But I mean
they could not in that game reliably get to brock Bauers.
The only big catch brock Bauers had was a play
where Talanoahfanga tried to jump on underneath rap Basks just
went off his instincts, and usually those are good, sometimes
(38:07):
they aren't, and this was a play where they weren't.
Powers could open for a big game, but he otherwise
was completely locked down. They did just not have the
ability to get the ball to their really not only
their their best receiver, but really their only receiver of
any note, right, now they weren't able to run the football.
Ashton john Di did not have a good game, And
I don't put that on Ashton john Ty put that
on on the offensive line and the fact that the
(38:29):
Bronco was of one of the best defensive lines in football.
But you know, with the with the Raiders, it was like, Okay,
you don't have the talent, but you schemed up a
good game. With the Broncos, the scheme is good, and
they have incredible talent, and they're getting back their best
defensive players. So it's just hard for me to imagine
this game being significantly different for the Raiders' offense. I
would expect a lot of third and long, a lot
(38:49):
of facts. I would expect Nick Benito to, you know,
try to win the Best Mortal Defensive Player award behind
Miles Garrett. But I just don't see a way for
the Raiders to dramatically change the way they approach offense
in this game.
Speaker 1 (39:04):
And I was gonna say that the Broncos, you know,
they've skated by the last three weeks, winning actually four weeks,
winning four games by a combined ten points. They have
had a couple blowouts this season. They had the Bengals
game that was not closed. They took care of the
Cowboys pretty easily. I think this is going to be
another one. And yeah, like I said, everyone check out
Bill's show where we decided whether the Broncos were lucky
(39:28):
or good.
Speaker 2 (39:30):
They were a good discussion.
Speaker 1 (39:31):
Let's wrap with the Rams, who are both good and
now I don't even think they're lucky. They actually maybe
should be better than nine to three if you think
about if you think about the way their season started
that Eagles game. Certainly the Panthers game last week was
a certain sort of you know, losing the turnover battle
and not being able to get the ball back. I
do think in this matchup against the Cardinals, the Rams
(39:54):
are favored by seven and a half. It's Kenny Albert
and Jonathan Vilma on the call that there are some
things that the Cardinals can do to bother him, and like,
the number one thing I'm probably watching from the Rams
side is like, can the pass rush be a little
more consistent. Teams have done a good job passing quickly
to kind of mitigate the Rams pass rush, and you know,
(40:16):
they struggled to get off the field last week. I
mean that's of course that's the recipe to do it.
But it's a little surprising. I know they don't blitz much,
but they're not in the top ten of pressure rate
this season. Considering the talent that they have, I kind
of want to see their pass rush come fully alive
down the stretch, and this would be an opportunity to
do so against a team in Jacoby Brissette who holds
(40:37):
the ball quite quite a long time.
Speaker 3 (40:40):
Yeah, I mean, a lot of the success the Panthers
had last week was throwing under two and a half seconds,
a lot of quick game, a lot of you know,
just trying to find soft spots and zones. Nine of
eleven Bryce Young for one twenty two and two touchdowns
within two and a half seconds, and the rams are
only fifteenth in the NFL. And qbr on throws under
two and a half seconds your last. That's usually the
kind like the common delineator for quick game versus a
(41:03):
more traditional passing attack. And so in the ideal world
you would have the ability to make throws throws if
you're Jacoby Brissett, that's just not typically how this offense work.
They want to be more of a heavy play action team,
which is going to be holding the ball, trying to
hit more shots downfield. Going to be tougher if Marvin
Harrison doesn't play in this game. He's still uncertain. The
rest have been very good against tight ends just here.
(41:24):
I think they're second in the NFL in qbr on
targets to tight ends, and so not just as simple
as getting the ball to Trey McBride. I love a
little bit of Greg Dortch. I would always wish they'd
get a little more Greg Dortsch involved in the offense.
But Greg, the big thing that I think really underpinned
the Panther's offense last week was running the football, and
the Cardinals offense is thirtieth in the NFL this year
(41:47):
in apaper play on design runs. That's been the biggest
disappointment for this team this season, full stop. Is just
they have been a very fun, very aggressive rushing attack
over the past couple of years. Whether it was losing
their offensive court, losing James Connor, losing Trade Benson, not
having the ability to go to three tight end sets
with Tim Bryan hurt, all those things probably contributed a
(42:08):
little bit, but they just have not been a good
designed run team this year and so that was hurting
with Kyler Murray that were getting stuck in a lot
of third and longs. They've been a little better because
Kobe Prissett, I think is better in those drop back
passing spots than Kyler is. But against the Rams, that
might be the rusely It's like, you know, if you're
just if your play action games taken out of the
game because you're trailing and because you're you're not running
(42:29):
the ball effectively and you're stuck in third and long,
that might be what unlocks a really good game from
this Rams pass ruck.
Speaker 1 (42:36):
Yeah, I think it's a tough matchup because of what
you just said. Trey Benson, by the way, not at practice.
Marvin Harrison not at practice. Harrison as a heel injury.
I don't think he's expected to play Benton. It's especially
concerning because he came off the activation window and now
he's not practicing. For what it's worth, and I don't
think it's much in this matchup. John McVay, Jonathan Gannon,
(42:57):
a lot of the same players. Was still a pretty
good Rams offense last year. They scored twenty three total
points in two games. They averaged eleven and a half
point also included, you know, maybe the high moment of
the Jonathan Gannon era putting up a forty burger on
the Rams in like a thirty five point victory early
last season, and then they had a struggle fest defensive
(43:17):
game later in the year. This Cardinals team is good
enough to make you sweat, but then lose their twentieth
in DVOA, which is better than you would expect from
a three to nine team. They have five point three
like estimated win.
Speaker 2 (43:31):
That sounds right. They actually seem like a five and
seven team.
Speaker 1 (43:34):
But I always think that really great teams coming off
a loss, there is a human element I think where
there's like the plexiglass principle. They bounce back generally, and
I think they'll play their best and I think they'll
do it by running the ball. People don't, I think,
realize how just how great they are running the ball.
And even last week against Carolina they are getting such
(43:56):
good push up front for Quorum and Kyron Williams. So
I could see a game this is not a fantasy
show bill, but like where where you got like a
Bears thing going on where both Korum and kyn Williams
go over one hundred yards and it's like thirty one
to sixteen, and it's just like a run fest for
the Rams.
Speaker 2 (44:14):
That's the time of the type of game you can't
lose in the division.
Speaker 1 (44:16):
They cannot lose this game in the division, or else
you're actually let in San Francisco to win this division.
Speaker 2 (44:21):
Still they they're four and one in the division, San Francisco.
Speaker 3 (44:25):
I have a question for you and we'll share.
Speaker 2 (44:26):
I guess with that, Yes, you got to go pick
up your kid.
Speaker 3 (44:30):
I do any reason to think Matthew Stafford's uh rough
game last week fluke, any reason to think it could
stick around, any reason to think that the Rams should
be a little concerned at all, Just kind of just
a bad game.
Speaker 1 (44:44):
Not at all, because a couple were just the type
of turnovers that he makes consistently throughout his career. He's aggressive,
and it happens he held the ball a little like no,
because he played well the rest of the game, Like
they averaged almost eight yards for playing that game. So
that's a big fat no. Because to me, he's out,
he'll have some turnovers. It's kind of been a fluky
(45:04):
how few turnovers he's had. But he's probably my m
v P right now, if I have to choose, we
don't have to.
Speaker 3 (45:12):
In the conversation, we don't have to go.
Speaker 1 (45:15):
Would you give Jonathan Gannon a fourth season?
Speaker 2 (45:17):
By the way, yes, I would.
Speaker 3 (45:19):
The defense is not the problem with this team. The offenses.
Speaker 2 (45:23):
I love it.
Speaker 1 (45:23):
Bill you Uh you said you were gonna prep and
uh you did it and we did it, and so
everyone uh should check out.
Speaker 2 (45:35):
You know who knows we've got We've got you.
Speaker 1 (45:37):
Maybe we can get uh Joe and Troy uh on
a podcast and we could introduce you guys.
Speaker 3 (45:43):
I'm well, I'll pass that up the chain. We'll see,
we'll see if see if that's likely to occur.
Speaker 1 (45:50):
I'm seeing this from our great producer here that you know,
maybe uh, there was gonna be some combination there. There's
an article out here on a podcast of like maybe
schefter could be on NFL Network and maybe you know,
me and you are now doing it together. We are
the synergy. By the way, without even being asked that
(46:10):
they're asking for me, you and Mina, we've already been
doing it.
Speaker 3 (46:15):
On the trojan horse of NFL Network. It seems like
I'm just bringing the pristiality over to cultur City, Los Angeles.
Speaker 1 (46:23):
You made this multi billion dollar merger happen. Thank you, Bill,
Go go pick up your lovely child. And that's it
for our preview show. We will be back on Thursday
with an exciting recap. We've got a banger. It's Cowboys,
it's lions that'll be up in the field from Nick
(46:44):
Chook and myself and then yes, all the weekend content
with our picks and Allie. Check us out on YouTube,
and thank you to everyone who sent us their messages
for being on your Spotify wrapped.
Speaker 2 (46:54):
We love you.
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we love a good day
night doubleheader. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesleyan
podcast studio talking to my friend for the second time today. Yes,
you read him at ESPN, you listen to his podcast,
Bill Barnwell Show, and he's been maybe the defining NFL
(00:27):
writer of his generation. I'll say it. I did his
podcast earlier in the day. Everyone check that out. And
you're here to join me Bill to talk a really
good five pack of games.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Welcome to the show.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
Thank you, Greg. What an intro. I think of myself
as the defining writer NFL writer, at least of my
own household.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
No, I'm trying to think who else it would be.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
This is a podcast for another date.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Like Greg, Bishop is a sneaky one in the mix,
you know, I'm Connor.
Speaker 2 (00:58):
Connor Or is great.
Speaker 3 (01:00):
But I'm saying, yeah, I'm not.
Speaker 1 (01:04):
I'm not really right anymore. But we're not going to
talk about that. We are going to talk about doubleheaders.
So the Bears and the Packers, they're playing twice over
the next eighteen days, or at least, you know, after Sunday,
they're gonna have a Thursday night game to cap this
like two for and we're going to talk also later
(01:25):
about the Monday night game, the Houston Kansas City, the
Sunday night game. It's gonna be great, But I think
we have to start with this Packers game. Packers are
favored by six and a half. It's the Kevin Burkhart
Tom Brady game in the afternoon, and the Bears continue
to ascend in terms of the quality of the opponent. Yes,
I'm putting the Packers over the Eagles at this point,
(01:45):
and ascend in terms of the importance of the game.
What concerns you because that's a pretty big number the
Packers are favored by in a game where you know,
the Bears are the number one seed in the NFC.
If the Bear let's say, don't even cover that number
where it's more than a touchdown in this game, what
do you think would go wrong for the Bears for
(02:07):
them to lose by two scores.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
Let's say their defense would stink. And unfortunately, Greg, we
talked about this as we were taping my show earlier.
The Bears defense might stink. It might actually be a
bad defense. So stat I would refer to here is
points allowed per drive on drives that do not end
in fumble recoveries or interceptions. Basically, what do you do
(02:31):
when you don't force a turnover. The Bears are twenty
ninth in the NFL in points allowed per drive by
that metric, so basically their defense is turnover or bust.
And thankfully, they have the highest turnover rate in football,
second highest rate of any team over the last ten seasons.
So they force a lot of turnovers, which is very good.
(02:51):
The problem is they are playing a Packers team which
has the fewest giveaways of any offense in football this year,
just seven turnovers this entire season for the Packers' offense. Now, admittedly,
when they have turned the ball over, it has been
at disastrous times, probably costs them a game against the
Browns earlier this season. Jordan Love, he's known for putting
(03:14):
the ball in danger in moments where you don't typically
want the ball to be in danger. But this Packers
team protects the football really well, and to me, that
is kind of the only way the Bears have played
defense well this season. Now they are getting back Jilan
Johnson who came back last week. Kyler Gordon is back,
you might be able to make the case that they
are a more complete defense perhaps than they were earlier
(03:37):
this season, But I just don't think that's a great
matchup for what the Bears want to do on the
defensive side of the football.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
No, I agree, and I want to see if the
Packers can kind of continue the Christian Watson led evolution
of this passing attack. And I do think their size,
like and Dad Tavian Wicks, and at some point obviously
Jayden Reied isn't adding sites to the mix, but Hill
add a certain sort of dynamism. But can this offensive
(04:06):
passing attack get reliable because the numbers would tell you
Jordan Love has been reliable this year, but the eye
test and just the quarters at a time has at
a time where this offense just goes away is not
baked into those numbers, And so I do want to
see that. The thing I'd be most worried about, and
(04:27):
you got to it, was the pass rush for the
Bears is probably the biggest weakness I think on their
entire fifty three man roster, and Jordan Love, while protected
this year, has easily the best numbers in the NFL
at any quarterback, like everyone thinks of Jared Goff as
the ultimate pressure non pressure quarterback split right now. Even
(04:51):
though you have the image of Jordan Love making some
good plays like while backing up, he actually has the
biggest splits of anyone, under pressure or not. And I
don't think the Bears are to apply a lot of
pressure in this game.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
I don't think so either. I mean, the one thing
I would say maybe is that this would have been
such a good matchup for Tucker Craft against a Bears
team that's going to be missing at least one starting
linebacker in Tremaine Edmonds, if not too t J. Edwards
has come back to practice, which would be a major
help for the Bears. But you do want to throw
on their linebackers, want to throw in the middle of
the field on them, and we'll see if Luke Musgrave
(05:23):
can be that guy. Josh Jacobs of course can catch
the football, though he's had kind of a rough season
for the Packers. But you know, you flip it, Greg
and you mentioned that the weakest spot on the Bears
lineup is their pass rush. The only other position that
comes to mind for me is left tackle, where the
Bears are now on their third left tackle of the
season and the Packers have a pretty good pass rusher
(05:47):
who might be able to cause Caleb Williams some trouble
in this game.
Speaker 1 (05:52):
I thought you were going to go The biggest weakness
is like their passing game, which is more general or
get real spicy and say their quarterback or something. Because
we hadn't hit on NFL Daily the comment by Ben
Johnson that they're winning in spite of their passing game,
which the next day because he knew that got a
lot of run in Chicago and nationally, he pointed out
(06:15):
how happy he is with Caleb Williams, that it wasn't
about Caleb Williams and that like he's making good decisions,
which I think, for the most part is true. The
decision making has been good. He is last in the
league Caleb Williams in completion percentage over expected. That matches
the eye test that the ball just isn't going where
he wants it to go enough. What is your level
(06:37):
of concern against this Packers' defense throwing the ball because
I will get to the run game. I think the
Bears will be able to run the ball in this game,
but you're gonna need Caleb Williams to make some play.
Do you agree with Ben Johnson's assessment.
Speaker 3 (06:51):
Yes, and no. I'm probably a little more pessimistic maybe
than Ben Johnson is about I do think he's making
the right decision of fair amount, but I think he's
making the safer decision a fair amount of the time.
Especially early in the year, even when they were on
Monday Night Football, you saw trade and pointing out, hey,
like this is the time to take a shot, Like
you're getting not going to lean on this over and
(07:12):
over again, but you're getting quarters. You a deep post,
that's where the ball should.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
Be going, and.
Speaker 3 (07:18):
You know there's something wrong with taking those checkdown He's
taking the underneath thirst necessarily. Obviously a short completion is
better than a sack, but you're only going to get
so many chances per game for those explosives. And the
reality is, unfortunately, like you said, Caleb Williams is missing
enough of his throws that they're going to need those
explosives not only in the run game, but also in
the past game to sort of make Hay Against the Packers,
(07:41):
he has a twenty two point one percent off target rate.
That's the time with Michael Pennix basically for the worst
in football. But when he gets pressured. Now everyone is
going to put a higher off target rate up when
they get pressured. His off target rate when he's pressured
is thirty seven point eight percent. The only player in
the NFL who has a worse off target right when
(08:02):
Houston pressure is Aaron Rodgers, who is actively trying to
avoid getting hit at all costs. So my concern is
really more game flow than Caleb William's talent. Like if
there's a scenario where the Bears got up fourteen to
nothing in this game early, and the Packers are one
dimensional and the Bears to run the football, and Caleb's
(08:23):
throwing off a play action, He's throwing off boots. He's
not throwing in third and long while he's trailing the
entire game. That's gonna be fine. I think they will
have opportunities to throw the football. Caleb is a talented player.
He's made some really impressive throws this year, and he's
gonna be in control. But if the Bears do get
behind early, they have to abandon or at least sort
(08:44):
of not you wias hefling on the run as I
normally would, Caleb's dropping back on second down on third
down there and second and long third and long a ton.
That is the sort of situation where I feel like
the pass rush can ruin the game for the Bears,
especially with Micah Parsons against their tackles.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
It sounds like we're both a little skeptical that the
Bears can pull this off. I'm a I'm a fan
of Bill you know, he he does it all in
that little jag right there, you referred to a big
internet you know, storm over someone doubting the great Mina
chimes our friend about.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
But yeah, it is stupid attacking.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
You know, quarters coverage with deep ball, you pivoted naturally
earlier to the left tackle position.
Speaker 3 (09:32):
Yes, yeah, you could just put coach in your Twitter handle.
No one checks it. No one's like, oh, no, one
verifies whether you're a coach or not.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
That's a great point.
Speaker 1 (09:41):
And you also know, you know, got a nice dig
at Aaron Rodgers, which lets me do a stat that
I forgot to do on the first part of the show,
which that he has completed exactly one pass under pressure
in the last three games combined, which is just every
All right, we have to move on from this game,
but I cannot wait to watch it.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
Jordan Rodriegh.
Speaker 1 (09:58):
We we let a different person pick which game is
the number one draft pick of what game they're going
to watch, and you know, quote unquote cover on our
show every week, and she had the number one pick
this week. I think she made the right choice with
the Packers and the Bears. That would have been my
pick as well. But I am very excited to attend
at SOFI Stadium my first game this season there, at
least since the barn Burner Chargers Saints preseason game Chargers Eagles.
(10:23):
The Eagles are favored by three. Of course, it's your colleagues.
I know you're tight with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman.
Maybe that line is baking in justin Herbert's wrist injury,
but you don't hang with with Joe did just Joe
fucking Troy Akeven know who you are?
Speaker 2 (10:42):
Do you think.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
That's a good answer to that. If I say yes,
I'm bragging and if I say no, I'm being honest,
And it's a little sad, So let's just leave it
to a mystery.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
I think humbole no is better.
Speaker 1 (10:56):
Unfortunately, it's almost a shot at them because if they
really know ball, you know, they would know. I bet
Troy Aikman does. I don't know about Joe buff That's
that's actually my take him.
Speaker 3 (11:05):
I I don't think.
Speaker 1 (11:08):
No, I think Troida, I think I think that line
is baking in Herbert playing or probably playing. So, yeah,
he's dated, he's day to day. The reports from Dan
Graziano ESPN is like, you know they're gonna take it,
and he's very hopeful.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
He thinks he can do it.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
I just watched him play an entire game with a
broken left hand and he held the hand away from him.
Watching that on replay was incredible because he was literally
holding it up. Wally was getting sacked on the other
side of his body. So if he can do that,
he's playing in this freaking game. He's a badass. And
here's one thing I didn't get to on your show
bill because we didn't talk Chargers. You know, for for
(11:47):
all the talk over the years about Herbert, you know
they're doing him dirty. They don't give him enough weapons,
you know, they're not supporting him. I like where this
defense is at. Obviously a good defense, it's healthier, helps
out a quarterback. We got the offensive line problems, we know,
but they brought Jamari Sawyer at left tackle last week
might have stabilized things a little bit. You're giving up
(12:10):
some run blocking to get the pass blocking might have
stabilized things a little bit. Trey Pipkins' is back, and
this group of weapons is great. Like they have five
they have four guys over five hundred yards right now receiving,
including Aronde Gatston who's a Rookie of the Year candidate,
and Kimani Videl is looking great in the backfield. And
we might get Amri in Himton like he's got a
lot to work with. It's Herbert's year. I think he
(12:32):
can do this. I think he can get this win.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
He's got one hand though, yeah, and all the other stuff,
but he has one hand. He has a hand in
a Nintendo Power glove and he has one hand to use.
Now you can win with one hand. We saw him
play well last week with one or play well enough
with one hand. I guess the place I would start
with this, Greg is knowing your quarterback is compromise maybe
(12:58):
or at least limited the very least. And given that
we just saw the Eagles get run over by the
Chicago Bears last week, do you think the Chargers whether
it's Monty Vidal or like you said, perhaps they were
returning Omerian Hampton. Do you think they try to lean
super heavy into the run and just try to win
the Greg Roman way and just go super run first,
(13:20):
the way he might have a few years ago in
San Francisco or in Baltimore or then I guess another
question is do you think they can do that? If
that's their game plan and philosophy heading into the game.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
I think they will try.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
Yes, I have my doubts whether they can. I think
Vidals like played better than I ever would have expected.
I think he's gonna have a question good career, and
if you add Hampton to the mix, that's a great group.
But even last week against the Raiders, to me, it
was more about him breaking tackles than it was about
the blocking the Eagles if you're going to beat them defensively,
(13:53):
and I'm not I'm not selling all my Eagles defensive
stock because of that one game or even the last
two games. Like I do think it's probably better done
on the ground. I do have my doubts of this
Chargers offensive line protecting for four quarters against this Eagle's
pass rush. Even if I think they're like upgraded maybe
(14:14):
from where they were three weeks ago, where it was like,
really just destitute.
Speaker 3 (14:20):
Yeah, I mean saw your play left tackle in the past.
He did a reasonable job. I was sort of surprised
they did not go back to that earlier. I mean
they were playing Trevor Penny at left tackle before they
gave Salier a shot, which never really made sense to me.
I do agree that it's going to be tougher for
them to succeed on the run. The Bears game was
a lot of zone runs against the Eagles. They are
the second best team in football by EPA per play
(14:41):
on zone runs. The Chargers are sixteenth in EPA pri
play on those zone runs. And I would flip it
and think about what Vic Fangio does really well, and
it's disguised as coverages. I mean, pre post stop. He
wants to spin his safeties. He wants to even post snap.
He wants to mask what his safeties when his coverage
defenders were act doing. He wants to give the quarterback
(15:01):
as little info as possible. And that's been a difference
maker for Justin Herbert and this Chargers offense. They are
He's fifth in the NFL in total qbr are sat
over at ESPN. When he faces disguised coverages this year,
he's twenty first, well or sorry when he does not
face the Skuy's coverages, fifth twenty first when the coverages
are disguised, and so he'll put the ball in danger,
(15:22):
put the ball on a tight window. I do think
I'm a little concerned about that. But no, the Chargers
are working progress on the offensive line. But this Eagles defense,
you know, the key pieces are still there, but they're
still figuring out what their best personnel is. I mean,
John Campbell, who was a defensive Rookie of the Year
candidate earlier this year, basically been benched for n Kobe Dean.
He hasn't played at all, even played a defensive step
(15:43):
at all last week, even when they were getting run
over on the ground. They're integrating Jalen Phillips. Michael Carter
was in the lineup as a slot cornerback and then
kind of fell out of favor. We saw more Dori
Jackson from here and there. It just sort of feels like,
even though we're two thirds of the way into the year,
the Eagles are still trying to find what their best
personnel groupings are what they should be doing against you know,
(16:04):
bigger packages, what they should be doing in obvious passing spots,
And it feels like there's always at least one or
two spots in the lineup teams can attack. And so
for the Chargers, I just think it's, you know, can
they find Dori Jackson all that often? Can they find
the Kobe didan coverage all that often? Can they find
those spots that they can take advantage of before they
(16:25):
end up trailing in this game?
Speaker 2 (16:27):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (16:27):
Read Blanken schip is another one that Ali Connolly on
our recap show of those of the Black Friday Game
pointed out everyone should check out. By the way, Ali
and I are back, the Saturday Siko Show is coming
back for its second episode.
Speaker 3 (16:40):
On SAD There's Atlantic podcast.
Speaker 2 (16:42):
It is.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
It is quite exciting there by the way a ball
possession offense and I do want to flip and talk
about the other side, but is interesting when you think
about the Bears and what they did, maybe they can
do what the Bears did but in a different way.
The Chargers are second in the NFL. I was surprised
to see that in place for drive. So a lot
of that is justin Herbert making magic on third down frankly,
(17:06):
but yeah, Like, by the way, if he goes and
has an awesome game, and I'm leaving this open for
a lot of quarterbacks out there, Dak is in that mix,
Like if he has an awesome game on Monday Night,
you'll start hearing, Hey, why not justin Herbert for MVP.
I don't think it's that crazy in a year where
there's not like totally obvious guys.
Speaker 2 (17:24):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
On the other side, Philadelphia leads the league in three
and outs, and this is where you know you can
see the path for the Chargers winning because you don't
think that they'll need as many points. Their defense is
healthier right now than it's been all seasons, certainly at edge,
but they also have Elijah Molden, some key guys up front,
Tier Tart and Deshaun hand who have had injuries their
(17:46):
back one of their best quarterbacks are he still is back,
so they're just healthier. And one thing I saw last
week against the Raiders, they were a lot more I
know it was the Raiders, but they were more creative,
doing kind of the Mike McDonald type of stuff, and
like Blitze just getting a little more creative, which I
think could work against this Eagles offense.
Speaker 3 (18:07):
Yeah. I mean, you know, the Eagles are a different
offense without Lane Johnson. We've known that for a decade.
More than a decade at this point. They are a
different team. When Lane Johnson is not on the field,
he is not going to play in this game. And
this is not an offense that is the most how
can I put this nicely extensive? Good goodness? Maybe, and
(18:30):
I share to put it as well or realistic way
to put it. It's sloppy, it's inconsistent, it's exploitable, and
I mean the Eagles are a team that win by
dominating with their personnel. They are not a team that's
winning with their scheme, and so that could be limited
pass protection groupings. That could mean things you can exploit
with your blitzes, with your certain pressures. To your point,
(18:50):
there's a lot of ways I think you beat the
Eagles that are beyond just simply our guys are better
than your guys, because the Eagles have incredible personnel, especially
when everyone is helped, which is obviously not the case
right now. But I think for the Chargers, the thing
you're hoping to have this be is sort of the
opposite of what Simon of what you said about the
Chargers on the ball. Can you force the Eagles to
(19:11):
drive down the field with six or seven first downs?
Can you take away the explosives, which they have no
explosives in the run game right now. They have plenty
of explosives in the passing game. Doante Smithy had some
big games and Jake Brown has had some big catches
even over the past couple of weeks. If you can
take stuff away over the top and just forced gale,
it hurts forced s Tayklon Barkley, force the offensive line,
force the receivers to not drop passes, to not commit penalties,
(19:33):
to not allow sacks, not allow pressures, just to be
a grinded out offense. They're gonna make mistakes. They just
have not been consistent enough to pull that off. And
I trust that Jesse Mincher and the Chargers have that
kind of big picture ability and vision. I do think
they can execute that and do that throughout sixty minutes
of a football game.
Speaker 1 (19:53):
They've been really versatile this year. They've also been very streaky.
They started the year as one of the best defensively.
That about a month where they were one of the
worst defensive league. Now they're trending back towards being one
of the best. But one thing I like that that
you mentioned and that they can do is I think
change it up week to week and really build a
game plan.
Speaker 2 (20:12):
Right now.
Speaker 1 (20:12):
I think the veterans on this team, they've been in
this system for a while, and like I said, they're healthier.
If it's not obvious enough, I like the charges. Can
I ask you a question, yes, please very quickly.
Speaker 3 (20:23):
So if you pull Eagles fans, I would say about
ninety percent of them think that this is the twenty
twenty three collapse happening again. Yeah, how confident are you
that this is the twenty twenty three collapse happening again
to the Eagles?
Speaker 2 (20:38):
Not confident. I don't think it's going to be that
bad that that was crazy.
Speaker 3 (20:43):
It's going to be a little, yeah.
Speaker 4 (20:45):
I do.
Speaker 1 (20:45):
I think they'll find a way to beat the Raiders
and the Commanders a couple of times. Maybe they lose
one Commander's game, and like if they lose a playoff
game one and done, they're competitive. That was one of
the worst teams in the NFL by the end of
the season. It was so bad I've almost I can't
remember another situation like that where a team turned into
one of the worst teams in the NFL for the
last month of the season and like everyone just assumed
(21:07):
they were going to get blown out in the playoffs,
and then they did, and it was a team that
had a Super Bowl predigree.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
I don't think they're going to be like that.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
Like, I think they'll probably lose in more heartbreaking fashion
in these games.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
If they're going to.
Speaker 3 (21:17):
Lose, yeah, I mean I just last week they missed
an extra point that would have tied the game. They're
in position in the red zone of score Jalen Hurts
fumbles on the tush push the week before, they go
up twenty one to nothing on the Cowboys, their position
to get in the red zone and right again and
a penalty gets the fun things catch called back and
then they fumble on the next play. Like there's been
(21:37):
a fair amount of bad luck and the defense is
still playing well enough. I know they didn't play great
against the rum last week, but they have been good
enough that I'm not anticipating a Matt Patricia led collapse
here down the stretch, So they might be not as
good maybe as they looked earlier this year. But I
don't think they're going to have a collapse the way
they did in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (21:53):
And keep an eye on Nick Sirianni. I wouldn't be
surprised if he is calling the plays this week. I
know they're not going to announce it or anything, but
whether he's going to have a bigger hand. He's returning
to the place where he cut his teeth. You know
they have moved up up the highway from San Diego
to hear he didn't coach in so far.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
He doesn't go to the wrong stadium.
Speaker 2 (22:12):
Yes, but he was a charger for a long time.
Speaker 1 (22:14):
It's time for the Sunday Drive presented by Toyota. Let's
go places Texans in Kansas City. Chiefs are favored by
three and a half. It's the NBC A team Rico
Collinsworth no more.
Speaker 3 (22:28):
Do you know Chris Collinsworth?
Speaker 2 (22:29):
Okay, you do, personally, We got that checked out. Okay.
Speaker 3 (22:33):
I've had a conversation or two with him. I did
a panel with him at a conference once.
Speaker 1 (22:37):
I have never had a conversation with him, but he
once pre taped different segments for a Fantasy Show. It
was called The Fantasy Fix with Me and Tiffany Simon's
on nbcsports dot com about about eighteen years ago, where
he pre taped the segment kind of like Michael Jordan
is doing with Mike Rico, where he did it all
in one day and he had to just sit there
(22:59):
for twenty straight segments and ask us a question, Hey.
Speaker 2 (23:04):
Greg and Tiffany, who do you think is gonna? Okay?
That was a bad Chris was not bad. That was good.
Speaker 3 (23:11):
That was so much better than I could have done.
Speaker 1 (23:14):
Things should start for the Packers, Sam con Gotto or
I'm on Green or is like something like that. I
just love when that these two, these two teams are
playing each other right now is awesome because the the
Chiefs are just holding on for dear life and the
Texans are reborn. And yet whoever lose this game is
(23:35):
in a tough spot. Including the text, So what what what?
Speaker 3 (23:39):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (23:39):
Fascinates you most from this game?
Speaker 3 (23:41):
Oh? Greg, fascinating me, terrifying me, scaring me. The Chiefs
offensive line versus Will Anderson and Zaneil Hunter. So according
to the most recent reports, as we tape this on
Wednesday afternoon, here on the east, Josh Simmons has a
(24:02):
dislocated risk, probably not gonna play.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
I think he's going to IRS. The word is he's
going to IR. Is the expectation.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (24:09):
Typically you don't play with disslocated risk. I feel confident
on that one. Trey Smith Juwan Taylor both questionable. It
sounds like maybe the wrong side of questionable for this game.
Greg That means Jalen Moore according to Chi Speed reporters,
at right tackle, Mike Collendo at right guard. And Yes,
(24:31):
after spending the entire offseason trying to avoid this happening,
the Chiefs are expecting the wan Ya Morris experience to
happen again at left tackle against the scariest one to
two punch of edge rushers in all of football, in
Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter. It's a absolute nightmare for
(24:51):
the Kansas City Chiefs to have this happen against this
particular opponent.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
That's so well said and true, and I'm so.
Speaker 1 (25:01):
Spooked by the Chiefs that this all when you say
these things, it all just seems to be setting up well.
Speaker 3 (25:07):
Well.
Speaker 1 (25:07):
Of course, then Andy Reid's gonna come up with this
great game plan and we're gonna be talking Sunday night
about how did they overcome all of this?
Speaker 2 (25:13):
But you know how many times I've thought that this
season and then it but it hasn't happened. Like how
many times I've thought.
Speaker 1 (25:19):
Well, yeah, this is the moment where you know, when
it's not looking great, actually they're gonna do this, and
they don't. And I'll ask you this, like, do you
think Andy Reid's missing something here? Does he need a
little inspiration? It's almost like they've just run out of
ideas or something. Maybe having so many limitations this week,
(25:40):
they'll somehow come up with something crazy, like the Andy
Reid of old. I feel like we haven't been seeing that,
even though we've been seeing prime Patrick Mahomes. I don't
know if we've been seeing prime Andy Reid.
Speaker 3 (25:51):
Greg I'll tell you what Andy Reid just watched the show.
I will tell Andy Reid, Wow, what he needs to
do to win this game. He doesn't need Matt Nagey,
doesn't need a big staff out. Keep it very simple
for Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Run the damn ball
and run it from under center, and don't do your
(26:11):
shotgun runs, don't do your RPOs. Get underneath center and
run the damn ball. The Chiefs are the second best
offense in football by EPA per play on under center
designed rushes, and the Texans greg are twenty six in
EPA per play on under center design rushes. I don't
think there's anything they can do to stop those edge rushers.
(26:34):
We saw the Super Bowl last year, right like they
tried to chip with Kelsey. They tried to get it,
you know, tried to help out on their best player
in Jalen Carter and then have one on ones elsewhere.
It didn't work. Kelsey's on a good chipper. They had
fewer guys going out into routes. There wasn't anybody getting open.
And the Eagles, I'm sure the Chiefs were still losing
enough of their one on ones to the Eagles that
Mahomes was still getting sacked even though at some points
(26:54):
they were max protecting or keeping seven in protection. I
don't think you want to lean head into the pass
in this game. I think you want to try to
run the football. You want to try to give your
offensive linment as much help as possible. You want to
avoid third and long as much as possible. And I
don't know if that's going to work because this is
an inferior version of the Chiefs offensive line than the
(27:15):
one they've had at their best earlier this year. But
especially if you can get Trey Smith in the lineup,
I think you have to give it a shot, just
because to me, that's the that is the most plausible
way you can have a sustainable and successful offense against
this Texans.
Speaker 1 (27:29):
Steam Barnwell becoming a run the damn ball guy in
his dotage. You know who would have thunk it? Forget
Rams Panthers. Wow, that's the biggest upset.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
Of the year.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
I think.
Speaker 1 (27:41):
I think Pacheco looked better last week than he did
early in the season. He hasn't looked great for a
couple of seasons, I thought a couple of years. Just
to my eye, he had a little more juice last
week in limited snaps. They still were using cream out,
so he would be the guy if you can get
kind of the old version of Pacheco back on the
(28:01):
flip side, like can can Houston's offense continue to kind
of catch a groove of normality.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
Now they're mixing in.
Speaker 1 (28:12):
These dumb plays where they mess up in short yardage
or they have illegal formations or they're handing it off
to the tight end. There's still some real Texany stuff
in there. But whether it was Davis Mills or CJ.
Stroud last week, especially in the second half, they have
been pretty cohesive as just like a normal looking offense,
(28:34):
especially passing the ball, and they're getting more out of
Xavier Hutchinson and Jayden Higgins and Dalton Schultz, which I
think is really important to have kind of an array
of options for CJ. Stroud to go to. We know
Nico Collins is a badass. He'll probably match up on
Trent McDuffie for a lot of this game. It's a
pretty ordinary defense for the Chiefs, and so I do
kind of feel like the Texans are coming into their
(28:57):
own as just a normal offense.
Speaker 2 (28:59):
Do you think they can keep that going?
Speaker 3 (29:02):
I like, what do you say mix in dumb plays?
Like there's a section of the play sheet that just
has dumb plays do not call and Nick Kelly cannot
resist the urge to call that play in the wrong It's.
Speaker 2 (29:13):
Like poorly executed plays, just like in that Colts game.
Speaker 1 (29:16):
They could have won by a lot more if they
could just pick up a yard in third or fourth
and one, so it's not even necessarily to play call.
But they they're still not great, is my point. But
the rest of the they are moving the ball a
little bit.
Speaker 3 (29:28):
They are moving the ball, and so they've been way
more efficient on a play by play basis. And there's
a stat called success rate, which measures how often you
stay on schedule on the offensive side of the ball.
They are third in success rate on offense over the
last month of the year, even though Skills was playing
quarterback for three of those four games. And the way
(29:48):
they're doing it, to me is by getting another offensive
lineman on the field. They have leaned heavily into the
six offensive lineman sets, which number one. Their linemen aren't
very good. They're getting an extra one in the field.
He just creating a further path for edge rusher to
get to the quarterback. It kind of simplifies some of
your pass pro because you know, if you're going to
full slide, if you're going to try to get one
(30:09):
on ones, it's a little easier to have an extra
linment on the field so you can handle, you know,
some bigger fronts better. They've been running the ball more efficiently.
They have had a fifty five percent success rate with
six offensive linemen sets over the year course of the year,
second best rate in football. And for the Chiefs, I
think that's a really big problem because number One, they
(30:30):
want to live in nickel anyway, Like they'll play based
defense if they have to, but they want to live
with five six defensive backs on the field. A lot
of the Steve Spagnolo exotic stuff is going to come
out of nickel and dime packages, and so by getting
into six o line sets, you're basically daring them to
match with their base defense. And then you're limiting a
lot of what Spags can do with kind of his
(30:50):
exotic pressures. And then I think the biggest thing is
if you can avoid the third and long. That was
I think the biggest problem for the Texans last year.
They had six point two snaps per game on third
and eight plus and wow with their offensive line, that
was a nightmare. I mean, all those third and lungs
were disaster. They had fifteen of them in the two
(31:11):
games against the Chiefs last year and only converted four
of them. And so this year it's down to five
per game over the last four It's still not ideal
to your point. Still some sloppiness. Run game has not
been great. It's being maybe a tiny if better. But
if you can avoid those third and lungs, you're getting
away from the spags, the spags downs where he can
dial up his best stuff. You're getting away from the
places where you're going to be blitza ble, where your
(31:33):
tackles are going to be one on one. If you
can avoid those spots, this offense is going to be fine.
And by staying on schedule and having a high success rate,
you are avoiding those third and lungs, and so that's
going to make this a very tough matchup for the Chiefs.
If the Texans can pass the ball well on early downs,
even if it's not a big play, even if it's
just a three four five yard game, avoiding the negatives,
avoiding the penalties of avoiding the sacks, that's how this
(31:55):
offense moves forward.
Speaker 1 (31:56):
Yeah, this is I never count out Steve Beegno to
have the right game plan, but it's just an ordinary defense.
Speaker 3 (32:03):
They can I give you one more stack, great please,
Chiefs defense this year when they blitz thirty second in
the NFL in pressure rate, that is the tough part
for me with this Chiefs defense is that their identities
the perfect blitz at the right time. And I don't
think Steve Spagnolda has forgotten how the blitz. It's just
been way less successful when they have blitched. And any defense,
(32:25):
if you blitzer, you don't get home, you're in a
terrible problem. And so if the Chiefs are not going
to get home with their blitzers in this game, and
they have had a lot of trouble getting home with
their blitzeres this year, I would expect Jayden Higgins, David Hutchinson,
Nico Collins, even Dalton Schultz to have a lot of
favorable matchups downfield and see Stroud to find those receiving and.
Speaker 1 (32:44):
Just judging on eye tests, like the last month, the
Houston offensive line for all the griefs that they've taken
been like, yep, it's been pretty normal. I would say
it's been like a little below average. Ben Baldwin does this,
it's very hard to get met Yeah, where they have.
He combines three different offensive line metrics from Sports Info
Info solutions in PFF and the ESPN and they were
(33:07):
like twentieth and I was like that, that's great, that's normal.
Speaker 2 (33:09):
All right, that's gonna be an awesome game. I think
I'm taking the Texans.
Speaker 1 (33:12):
Let's take a quick break, and we're gonna be back
to wrap up the week fourteen slate That was the
Sunday Drive presented by Toyota Let's Go Place. Toyota is
all in all season, with another year of Toyota Game
Day Giveaways coming up. During this week's Sunday Night game,
(33:34):
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points are scored in the last two minutes of the
fourth quarter, one hundred fans will each win one hundred
and fifty dollars NFL gift card for this holiday season,
just in time to gift or grab the gear you love.
Terms and conditions apply. Enter for a chance to win
(33:57):
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Speaker 4 (34:00):
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Speaker 1 (34:16):
Back on NFL Daily as we broke from the Bill
Barnwell Show earlier today, he said he had to go
to a coffee shop to do some prep. He's a pro,
and I could see that prep in this show. This
is this is the part of the show. It's got
to test you a little more. Broncos heavily favored at Vegas.
I feel like we've covered the Raiders too much lately
(34:38):
on this show. It's just been so bad. The Broncos
are obviously the more interesting side. Could this be a
rare okay, bear with me here. A revenge game for
bo Nicks and the Broncos, just against how bad they
looked against the Raiders last time. Everyone was making fun
of them for how terrible they look putting up like
two hundred yards of offense against the Raiders. So it's
(35:00):
a revenge game against expectations, and it's in the perfect,
you know, conditions of Allegiant Stadium.
Speaker 3 (35:08):
Greg. You know, I did go to that coffee shop
and I rewatched the Broncos Raiders games and weirdly everyone left,
everyone cleared out of the coffee shop because the game
was so awful. I think Patrick Graham had a really
good game plan against Bonnicks in that first game, contained
him in the pocket, didn't let him rush. He didn't
have a single scramble. I think his five attention it
(35:30):
was Niel downs and sneaks in that game, it was
taken away. The first read. Bonnicks was nine of twenty
for one hundred and thirteen yards and two picks when
he held the ball for over two and a half seconds.
It was a lot of basically daring Bonis to be
a quarterback. Go through your progressions, work out of the pocket.
That's not what Sean Payden wants Bonnicks to do. It's
not what Bonnicks wants Bonnicks to do. But the Raiders
(35:52):
showed that game plan, and so you would figure if
you're going to talk about a guy who's good at it,
justin guy who's good at you know, coming up with
stuff to counter what you want to do on defense.
With a week to watch that game and to look back,
I would imagine Sean Payton will be in pretty good
shape in terms of what they're game planning for the
Raiders in the matchup. So I do think it's a
(36:14):
proved game for bow Nicks, and I do think that
the Broncos will be better on offense, although a little
concerned about the run game without JK Dodam.
Speaker 2 (36:22):
Yeah, they haven't looked as good.
Speaker 1 (36:24):
The Raiders defensive numbers were pretty good coming out of
that game, for instance, like over the course of the
season they were slightly better than average considering their talent level.
Was a good coaching job by Pete Carroll and Patrick
Graham on that side of the ball. Since then, it
hasn't looked good. There's just not much push. I think
Sean Payton in much better conditions, and the conditions were
(36:45):
terrible that night. It was freezing, like it's just gonna
find too much offense for the Raiders to keep up.
Gino looks looks a little shell shocked out there, and
watching him against this Broncos team doesn't seem fair. Broncos,
like Miles Garrett are going after an NFL record. They
have a real chance here, Yeah, to get the NFL
(37:06):
team sack record. And you know who's helping out every
week when they face another defense and helping their sack numbers.
It's Gino Smith and the Raiders. It's just like a
walking seven sacks to start the game. It's tough to watch, Like,
what do you like when you see this Broncos defense
at their best.
Speaker 3 (37:24):
I mean, you didn't even mention that they didn't have
Pats or ten. I believe good point the first game
for these two teams. So now you're adding the raining
defensive player of the year back to a game where
it felt like the Raiders could have played for forty
quarters and maybe not gotten to twenty one points, which
is probably what they needed to win that game. I mean,
(37:45):
you're hoping maybe the chip Kelly firing changes some things.
I know that there's some reports this week that they
were just running the chip Kelly offense all along? Are
they running the Carrol offense all along? But I mean
they could not in that game reliably get to brock Bauers.
The only big catch brock Bauers had was a play
where Talanoahfanga tried to jump on underneath rap Basks just
went off his instincts, and usually those are good, sometimes
(38:07):
they aren't, and this was a play where they weren't.
Powers could open for a big game, but he otherwise
was completely locked down. They did just not have the
ability to get the ball to their really not only
their their best receiver, but really their only receiver of
any note, right, now they weren't able to run the football.
Ashton john Di did not have a good game, And
I don't put that on Ashton john Ty put that
on on the offensive line and the fact that the
(38:29):
Bronco was of one of the best defensive lines in football.
But you know, with the with the Raiders, it was like, Okay,
you don't have the talent, but you schemed up a
good game. With the Broncos, the scheme is good, and
they have incredible talent, and they're getting back their best
defensive players. So it's just hard for me to imagine
this game being significantly different for the Raiders' offense. I
would expect a lot of third and long, a lot
(38:49):
of facts. I would expect Nick Benito to, you know,
try to win the Best Mortal Defensive Player award behind
Miles Garrett. But I just don't see a way for
the Raiders to dramatically change the way they approach offense
in this game.
Speaker 1 (39:04):
And I was gonna say that the Broncos, you know,
they've skated by the last three weeks, winning actually four weeks,
winning four games by a combined ten points. They have
had a couple blowouts this season. They had the Bengals
game that was not closed. They took care of the
Cowboys pretty easily. I think this is going to be
another one. And yeah, like I said, everyone check out
Bill's show where we decided whether the Broncos were lucky
(39:28):
or good.
Speaker 2 (39:30):
They were a good discussion.
Speaker 1 (39:31):
Let's wrap with the Rams, who are both good and
now I don't even think they're lucky. They actually maybe
should be better than nine to three if you think
about if you think about the way their season started
that Eagles game. Certainly the Panthers game last week was
a certain sort of you know, losing the turnover battle
and not being able to get the ball back. I
do think in this matchup against the Cardinals, the Rams
(39:54):
are favored by seven and a half. It's Kenny Albert
and Jonathan Vilma on the call that there are some
things that the Cardinals can do to bother him, and like,
the number one thing I'm probably watching from the Rams
side is like, can the pass rush be a little
more consistent. Teams have done a good job passing quickly
to kind of mitigate the Rams pass rush, and you know,
(40:16):
they struggled to get off the field last week. I
mean that's of course that's the recipe to do it.
But it's a little surprising. I know they don't blitz much,
but they're not in the top ten of pressure rate
this season. Considering the talent that they have, I kind
of want to see their pass rush come fully alive
down the stretch, and this would be an opportunity to
do so against a team in Jacoby Brissette who holds
(40:37):
the ball quite quite a long time.
Speaker 3 (40:40):
Yeah, I mean, a lot of the success the Panthers
had last week was throwing under two and a half seconds,
a lot of quick game, a lot of you know,
just trying to find soft spots and zones. Nine of
eleven Bryce Young for one twenty two and two touchdowns
within two and a half seconds, and the rams are
only fifteenth in the NFL. And qbr on throws under
two and a half seconds your last. That's usually the
kind like the common delineator for quick game versus a
(41:03):
more traditional passing attack. And so in the ideal world
you would have the ability to make throws throws if
you're Jacoby Brissett, that's just not typically how this offense work.
They want to be more of a heavy play action team,
which is going to be holding the ball, trying to
hit more shots downfield. Going to be tougher if Marvin
Harrison doesn't play in this game. He's still uncertain. The
rest have been very good against tight ends just here.
(41:24):
I think they're second in the NFL in qbr on
targets to tight ends, and so not just as simple
as getting the ball to Trey McBride. I love a
little bit of Greg Dortch. I would always wish they'd
get a little more Greg Dortsch involved in the offense.
But Greg, the big thing that I think really underpinned
the Panther's offense last week was running the football, and
the Cardinals offense is thirtieth in the NFL this year
(41:47):
in apaper play on design runs. That's been the biggest
disappointment for this team this season, full stop. Is just
they have been a very fun, very aggressive rushing attack
over the past couple of years. Whether it was losing
their offensive court, losing James Connor, losing Trade Benson, not
having the ability to go to three tight end sets
with Tim Bryan hurt, all those things probably contributed a
(42:08):
little bit, but they just have not been a good
designed run team this year and so that was hurting
with Kyler Murray that were getting stuck in a lot
of third and longs. They've been a little better because
Kobe Prissett, I think is better in those drop back
passing spots than Kyler is. But against the Rams, that
might be the rusely It's like, you know, if you're
just if your play action games taken out of the
game because you're trailing and because you're you're not running
(42:29):
the ball effectively and you're stuck in third and long,
that might be what unlocks a really good game from
this Rams pass ruck.
Speaker 1 (42:36):
Yeah, I think it's a tough matchup because of what
you just said. Trey Benson, by the way, not at practice.
Marvin Harrison not at practice. Harrison as a heel injury.
I don't think he's expected to play Benton. It's especially
concerning because he came off the activation window and now
he's not practicing. For what it's worth, and I don't
think it's much in this matchup. John McVay, Jonathan Gannon,
(42:57):
a lot of the same players. Was still a pretty
good Rams offense last year. They scored twenty three total
points in two games. They averaged eleven and a half
point also included, you know, maybe the high moment of
the Jonathan Gannon era putting up a forty burger on
the Rams in like a thirty five point victory early
last season, and then they had a struggle fest defensive
(43:17):
game later in the year. This Cardinals team is good
enough to make you sweat, but then lose their twentieth
in DVOA, which is better than you would expect from
a three to nine team. They have five point three
like estimated win.
Speaker 2 (43:31):
That sounds right. They actually seem like a five and
seven team.
Speaker 1 (43:34):
But I always think that really great teams coming off
a loss, there is a human element I think where
there's like the plexiglass principle. They bounce back generally, and
I think they'll play their best and I think they'll
do it by running the ball. People don't, I think,
realize how just how great they are running the ball.
And even last week against Carolina they are getting such
(43:56):
good push up front for Quorum and Kyron Williams. So
I could see a game this is not a fantasy
show bill, but like where where you got like a
Bears thing going on where both Korum and kyn Williams
go over one hundred yards and it's like thirty one
to sixteen, and it's just like a run fest for
the Rams.
Speaker 2 (44:14):
That's the time of the type of game you can't
lose in the division.
Speaker 1 (44:16):
They cannot lose this game in the division, or else
you're actually let in San Francisco to win this division.
Speaker 2 (44:21):
Still they they're four and one in the division, San Francisco.
Speaker 3 (44:25):
I have a question for you and we'll share.
Speaker 2 (44:26):
I guess with that, Yes, you got to go pick
up your kid.
Speaker 3 (44:30):
I do any reason to think Matthew Stafford's uh rough
game last week fluke, any reason to think it could
stick around, any reason to think that the Rams should
be a little concerned at all, Just kind of just
a bad game.
Speaker 1 (44:44):
Not at all, because a couple were just the type
of turnovers that he makes consistently throughout his career. He's aggressive,
and it happens he held the ball a little like no,
because he played well the rest of the game, Like
they averaged almost eight yards for playing that game. So
that's a big fat no. Because to me, he's out,
he'll have some turnovers. It's kind of been a fluky
(45:04):
how few turnovers he's had. But he's probably my m
v P right now, if I have to choose, we
don't have to.
Speaker 3 (45:12):
In the conversation, we don't have to go.
Speaker 1 (45:15):
Would you give Jonathan Gannon a fourth season?
Speaker 2 (45:17):
By the way, yes, I would.
Speaker 3 (45:19):
The defense is not the problem with this team. The offenses.
Speaker 2 (45:23):
I love it.
Speaker 1 (45:23):
Bill you Uh you said you were gonna prep and
uh you did it and we did it, and so
everyone uh should check out.
Speaker 2 (45:35):
You know who knows we've got We've got you.
Speaker 1 (45:37):
Maybe we can get uh Joe and Troy uh on
a podcast and we could introduce you guys.
Speaker 3 (45:43):
I'm well, I'll pass that up the chain. We'll see,
we'll see if see if that's likely to occur.
Speaker 1 (45:50):
I'm seeing this from our great producer here that you know,
maybe uh, there was gonna be some combination there. There's
an article out here on a podcast of like maybe
schefter could be on NFL Network and maybe you know,
me and you are now doing it together. We are
the synergy. By the way, without even being asked that
(46:10):
they're asking for me, you and Mina, we've already been
doing it.
Speaker 3 (46:15):
On the trojan horse of NFL Network. It seems like
I'm just bringing the pristiality over to cultur City, Los Angeles.
Speaker 1 (46:23):
You made this multi billion dollar merger happen. Thank you, Bill,
Go go pick up your lovely child. And that's it
for our preview show. We will be back on Thursday
with an exciting recap. We've got a banger. It's Cowboys,
it's lions that'll be up in the field from Nick
(46:44):
Chook and myself and then yes, all the weekend content
with our picks and Allie. Check us out on YouTube,
and thank you to everyone who sent us their messages
for being on your Spotify wrapped.
Speaker 2 (46:54):
We love you.
Host
Gregg Rosenthal
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