July 25, 2025 • 33 mins
Gregg Rosenthal is joined by Aaron Schatz of FTN Fantasy to talk about team projections for the NFL season. First, Gregg reacts to the surprising news of Christian Wilkins being released by the Raiders (00:05). After the news, Gregg and Aaron explain the team projections around the 49ers (05:15), Jaguars (11:10), Commanders (15:10), Raiders (19:57), Chargers (23:17), Steelers (25:20), Cowboys (27:40), Buccaneers (26:37) and more!
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Hey guys, this is Greg Rosenthald. This is the NFL Daily.
The regular top of the show is going to be
in just a minute. But after we recorded a great
show with Aaron Schottz looking at some team projections, we
got the news that Christian Wilkins of the Raiders has
been released by the team. The Raiders are one of
the teams that we talked about at length in this show,
so we wanted to get it updated, especially because this
(00:26):
is the first news bomb drop that we've had. He
to remind you, Christian Wilkins, formerly of the Miami Dolphins,
seinety five year, one hundred and ten million dollar contract
just a year ago. At the time, it was reported
that eighty four million dollars of it was guaranteed. Wilkins
has already gotten just about fifty million dollars of that guaranteed.
(00:49):
And it sounds like, according to our insider Ian Rappaport,
who has been out front with this story, that there
is a disagreement between the Raiders and Christian Wilkins about
how he has been rehabbing that surgically repaired foot. They
wanted him to get surgery. They had multiple medical opinions
that said to get another surgery.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
He didn't want to do it.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
They tried to take away a big chunk of his
guaranteed money, about thirty five million dollars. He and the
NFLPA apparently has filed a grievance to get that thirty
five million dollars. So sometimes when the insiders report fully guaranteed,
it might not be fully guaranteed, but that will be
settled in the court system. And I guess between the
(01:35):
money and the injury, the Raiders in this new era,
with John Spytech at GM and Pete Carroll at head coach,
decided this guy just isn't worth it, which is pretty
surprising for a guy who was a top ten defensive
tackle really when they brought him into Las Vegas. But
obviously the injury has really changed his career. He was
(01:58):
only able to play five game for the Raiders. The
money situation is going to be done in the court system,
but it really leaves the Raiders in an interesting spot.
They are putting a ton of dead money onto their
cap this year, basically taking the pain of all that
money this year and saying it's not even worth keeping.
(02:21):
Christian Wilkins will eat the money this year. And try
to be free of everything a year from now. But
very disappointing for them because it's not like it helps
their cap situation. It actually raises their salary cap situation.
And this is one thing you can do with an
excess of salary cap situation is eat it all now
and move it into the future. But man, if you
(02:41):
look at the Raiders roster at defensive tackle, it is
about as thin as any team in the entire NFL.
Adam Butler is their number one defensive tackle. After that,
it's really a question mark. Who is going to be
starting for this team, whether it's Lucky Foto I believe
is listed as the starter.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
Right now, they have a rookie, you.
Speaker 1 (02:59):
Know, third day pick, Tanka Hemingway. It's not great. They're
gonna have to maybe look at free agency. But I
think it's a sign of an organization Pete Carroll, John
Spytek who want their guys who are willing to take
a little short term pain. So maybe it makes sense
to take short term pain for a little long term game.
But man, it is hard to be optimistic about that
Raiders defensive line, especially in the middle.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Now, let's get to the rest of the show.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're two decades into explaining
what DVOA is. I'm Greg Rosenthal, and yes we are
gonna have the originator of the stat on this show.
Throughout it is Aaron Shots of the FDN Football Almanac,
and Aaron, I have been like quoting DVA is just
(03:51):
sort of like a quick and dirty best way to
measure a team's overall efficiency for like two decades, and
at this point I feel like I should just stop
explaining what it means. But there is really no easy
way to explain what it means.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
No there is. It measures the success, Okay, but every
play compared to a league average, adjusted for situation and opponent.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
Okay, that's the short version. I've got to copy that.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
But it's a very smart way, and I'm a simple
man to get where a team is where they're potentially going,
and we use it throughout the course of the season,
and of course Aaron uses it to write what, to
me is the best primer preview if you're going to
get one thing to get ready for the season. To me,
it is the FDN Football Almanac. If you've listened to
(04:38):
this show and around the NFL for a while used
to be called football outsiders, and I recommend everyone go
and get that.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
And so I got it.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
And what I thought we would do today, Aaron is
just go through a handful of teams and we'll try
to pick ones that maybe we haven't talked about as
much on this show. And then we'll also pick ones
that just stuck out kind of for surprising projections. And
we'll start with the forty nine ers, who I noticed
(05:10):
in your projections and out in Vegas, you're basically looking
at a total rebound. You have the forty nine Ers
at projected for eleven point two wins, which is the
most in the NFC, it's the third most in the NFL.
You have them with a seventy nine point seven percent
(05:31):
chance to make the playoffs. And what really surprised me
was you have them almost two wins ahead of the
Cardinals and the Rams, who are very closely bunched behind them.
Give me kind of the statistical reasons why you guys
are so bullish on San Francisco.
Speaker 3 (05:49):
First, I'll mention San Francisco is actually our sample chapter.
So if you want to see what the FTN Football
Almanac is about, you can go to FTN Fantasy Slash
Almanac and actually read the entire San Francisco chapter that
Brian Knowles wrote. The forty nine ers were better than
you think last year despite the injuries. They were fourteenth
(06:14):
in DVOA, despite leading the league in adjusted games lost
to injury, and they were fourteenth in part because their
special teams were really bad, which doesn't tend to carry
over from year to year. So offense and defense wise,
they were even better than that. They were the best
eleven loss team since nineteen seventy eight by DVOA.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
That's a wild it's a wild time.
Speaker 3 (06:40):
I realize you don't put a banner up for right.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
It's a weird one.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
As far as what they're gonna do this year, it
suggests good things now.
Speaker 1 (06:47):
They obviously have questions to me more than anywhere on
the defensive line, like a lot of changes there. You're
counting on potentially three rookies to have pretty big roles
and a couple guys who haven't played, you know, at
a particularly high level at defensive tackle. What is it though,
(07:09):
that makes them stand out in terms of having that
big of a projection other than the schedule, because the
rest of the NFC West on some level has a
similar schedule. What puts them like a couple wins ahead?
Is it just that tried and true Shanahan offense essentially
plus all the injury games that they missed a year ago.
Speaker 3 (07:31):
That's a lot of it. And schedule wise, you know,
the NFC West has mostly the same schedule, but the
three games that are based on where you place in
the standings, it just because of which divisions. That is,
the forty nine ers is much easier than the other
three teams in the division. Defensive I mean again, they
were better than you think last year. Defensively they were thirteenth.
(07:53):
Offensively they were nine. So let's imagine that the defense,
right is healthier, but you've got rookies, guys left whatever
does about the same thing thirteen the offense. We're big
believers in Shanahan healthier. Again, on offense, they have McCaffrey
for most of the year, If they have Ayuk for
most of the year, although it does seem like he's
going to miss the beginning of the year, right, they
(08:15):
get a little bit better on offense. Let's say you
combine that with the really easy schedule, you have a
division champion.
Speaker 1 (08:22):
Yeah, I think that the case against them and that
all makes sense to them. And I haven't decided whether
like they're going to be one of my playoff teams
or not, but i'd probably lean towards yes, and your
projections influence that sum that the case against them to
me would be okay. The two things on offense that
you feel like you can count on opposite the scheme
(08:42):
is Perdy, who I think is a good, young, improving quarterback,
and Kittle, who's still playing at a very high level.
After that, it gets pretty murky because County on Kristin
McCaffrey to just be healthy is a little murky. Ricky
Piersall in his short career hasn't shown too much and
he has got some injury issues. Obviously, Deebo Samuel's gone
(09:03):
and wasn't playing at the same level. We don't really
know about Ayuk And every year forty nine Ers fans
look at their offensive line and they're like, why didn't
we invest more?
Speaker 2 (09:13):
And it's kind of another season like that.
Speaker 1 (09:14):
You feel great about Trent Williams, you feel great about
the youngster Dominic Pooney.
Speaker 2 (09:19):
After that, it's pretty shaky.
Speaker 1 (09:21):
If Trent Williams, for instance, were to miss some games
this year like he has, you know at points the
last couple of years. I don't know if they have
a backup plan as much in place, and so I
get the projection. To me, they seem like, along with
the Cowboys, who we might hit as well as one
of the highest variants teams in the league. You could
absolutely see a scenario where they are back there where
(09:41):
Kyle Shanahan lives in the NFC Championship game, and I
think you could see a scenario where they're closer to
five hundred.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
But one of the things I love about your alm
in that.
Speaker 1 (09:51):
Kid is it does point out things like, not only
were they not as bad as you remember a year ago,
Like man, they lost a lot of tight games to
really good tea until the injury wheels fell off. It
was like at the last second, and sometimes the emotion
of watching the season you do overrate that.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
You guys are absolutely right.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
They were losing the very good teams, They were very
close games, and really they probably weren't as bad as
they were a year ago. A lot of variants, though
I feel like they're not. Yeah, I feel like I
know more about the Rams at least.
Speaker 3 (10:20):
I think about. Part of the variants is something you
alluded to a little bit with the offensive line. This
is a team with bad depth if they get hit
by a lot of injuries. Again, that's what they really
lost when they lost guys this offseason, is they lost
a lot of their depth. Right, pierceall is no longer death,
(10:40):
He's now a starter. Right. Like defensively, they're going to
depend on rookies and they don't necessarily have good guys
behind them that if they have the injuries, I don't
know if they have the depth to be, you know,
five hundred for five or six weeks while they wait
for everybody to get healthy. Again.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
Yeah, that checks out.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
I think it was interesting you had the Cardinals just
very slightly, but essentially you had the Cardinals and the
Rams at the same spot. And that that, you know,
is really supportive of our Cardinals love on this show
and I like hearing that. Let's go to the AFC South.
You have the Jaguars projected to win the division. It's
(11:21):
only by you know, half a game in your projections,
but you have the Jaguars at nine wins. You have
them at a fifty four point seven percent chance to
make the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (11:32):
What helped the Jaguars.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
It was probably the most surprising, Maybe not the most surprising,
but it was up there with the most surprising division
winners over the Texans this year.
Speaker 3 (11:43):
Well, the Texans. You have an issue that comes up
with a number of teams, which is defense is less
consistent from year to year than offense. So when you
have a team that was so good on defense and
not good on offense, which was the case with last
year's Texans, you expected it's more likely that the defense
comes back to the pack a little bit than that
(12:04):
the offense improves, especially since they still have tons of
questions on their offensive line. With Jacksonville, we see a
defensive improvement. They were the lowest team in the league
in takeaways per drive last year, only four point seven
percent of drives ended with turnovers. That is something that
heavily regresses to the mean from year to year. They
(12:25):
were terrible against the run on third downs, better on
first downs. That's also something where first down run defense
tends to carry over more. Third downs are obviously really important,
but there's less of them, so the sample sizes and
is big. I think some of this is we had
to guess about Travis Hunter. Like, we give credit for
drafting defensive players in the first couple of rounds because
(12:48):
defensive players actually tend to have a more predictable effect
on the team than offensive players when you draft them.
Is Travis Hunter defensive player? Like that?
Speaker 1 (13:00):
Know?
Speaker 3 (13:00):
Does he count as an offensive player? Mean?
Speaker 2 (13:02):
He counts us both? Why wouldn't he he count us both?
Speaker 3 (13:04):
Right, we counted him as both. So if he's not
a big addition to the defense, then maybe we're overrating
their defense a little bit. Maybe their defense is below
average and now they fall behind Houston. But on offense,
I think we may be underplaying them. Listen, I'm one
of those people, and there's a lot of us out
there who still think the Trevor Lawrence has got it right.
(13:28):
He just needs a coach to unlock it. And there
is a feeling like Liam Cohen can be that coach.
Brian Thomas Junior is so good having Travis Hunter now
as the second wide receiver. Yeah, there's questions about the
offensive live but Trevor Lawrence cod should still be good.
So this even if the defense doesn't live up to
our projection, I feel like the offense can be better
(13:49):
than our projection.
Speaker 1 (13:50):
I agree with you on the offensive side. I never
thought i'd hear the day where Aaron Shottz uses the
word that a quarterback has it, you know, very analytically
sound there, And it's funny because I would push back
on that. For Trevor Larns, I think he's got everything
but it, and that's yeah.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
I mean I'm thinking, I guess I'm thinking more about
his natural abilities rather than instinct I guess when people
say that someone has hits, they're thinking more instincts and
leaderskip shills, leadership skills, and I'm thinking more the arm.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
Yes, I do think he has the talent to get
it done. I think in the right system he can
pop up. I think there is something, whether it's mentally,
whether it's just as simple as reading defenses and needing
more time in the NFL to kind of mature on
that front, or yeah, just that Jenna say qua that
you want out of your quarterback.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
I don't think he's shown that yet.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
And yet I can see the case for them on offense,
because immediately, if Travis Hunter is as good as I
personally think he is, I think that's up there with
the best wide receiver combinations in the league, and not
like the best young wide receiver combinations, just one of
the best wide receiver combinations. And then I think Liam
(15:02):
Cohen is going to be able to scheme up a
pretty good running game to support them as well. The
offensive line definitely has question marks, like we don't know
enough about Anthony Campanille, their defensive coordinator. But I see
the case there. Was surprised to see them over the Texans.
I was even more surprised, though, Aaron, to see the
optimism that you guys have for the Commanders. This was
(15:23):
probably the number one thing that stuck out to me
when I first opened The first thing I do is
check the projections. You have the Commanders at ten point
six wins. That's about a win ahead of the Eagles.
So you have the Commanders with a seventy four percent
chance to make the playoffs, a better chance to win
the NFC East over Philadelphia. It's the second best odds
(15:45):
in the NFC to make the Super Bowl. What is
it that your numbers are telling you about the Commanders?
Because for readers of your almanac, very often a team
that improves so much one year to the next, you
often expect a regression the next year, and you're kind
of predicting the opposite here.
Speaker 3 (16:04):
This is a little abnormal. You're right, And also fourth
downs are going to regress. They were like possibly the
best fourth down team ever last year if you consider
how successful they were on fourth downs and how often
they went for it, And there's no way that that
continues again. But the system thinks that that is going
to be countered by the additions like Samuel and Laramie Tunsel.
(16:28):
And it doesn't necessarily think Daniels is going to get better,
but it doesn't think he's going to get worse. There
is an individual quarterback projection part of the team projections,
and it likes Daniels a lot, and it has The
defense was twenty third last year, going to improve a
little bit to be more like sixteenth or seventeen, which
I think they can do if Lattimore is healthy and
(16:51):
Trey Amos is good. And I know that there are
questions about who is going to exactly rush the passer
other than Frankie Louvu. But if they can put an
average defense out there with a very good offense, then
this is a pretty darn good team. And schedule again
plays a role. They have an easier schedule than the Eagles,
who liked the Texans. We think the defense was so
(17:13):
good last year and so important to what they did.
Even if it is still one of the best defenses
in the league, if it's not as good as it
was last year and they lost a lot of talent,
the Eagles lost more veteran defensive talent than any other
team with the variable that I use for losing veteran talent.
If the defense is not quite as good as it
(17:35):
was last year, then the Eagles they're still one of
the top teams in the league, but in their own
division they have to fight with the Commanders, who we
also think are one of the top teams in the league.
Speaker 1 (17:45):
Yeah, you have them in your overall DVOA projections for
the year. The Eagles as the seventh best team in
the NFL, So not that much different than where Washington
is at five. But that's interesting because to me and
the Eagles have a very high ceiling for the offense.
But what your numbers are looking at and you still
(18:07):
have them in the top ten, you have them ninth.
Is that for so much of last season, really for
the last season and a half. The offense during the
regular season has been inconsistent. It's why Eagles fans are
frustrated with Jalen Hurts's quarterback rankings and all that sort
of stuff. But I'm I'm amazed that you have the
commanders so high, and I think I think it's something
(18:30):
commanders fans can put in their pocket and push back
against everyone who just naturally as analysts Aaron like, no
one wants to predict the same teams to make the
Final four or the Final eight every year, and when
you're looking at it from a year ago, like Washington
is the team, I think that the national media is
just going to expect to fall off except for you.
Speaker 3 (18:52):
Yeah, no, I understand that. And normally we absolutely believe
in the plexiglass principle, which is teams that significantly improve
from one year to the next tend to then take
a step back in year three. The fact that we
have the commanders going counter to that is counter to
what normally comes out of our projection systems. There's no
question about that.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
And I was talking on our last show with Jordan
Rodriegan with Bridget Condon that, Yeah, something doesn't sit right
that We've had such elite consistency at the top of
the league really for the last couple of years. And really,
if what you project to happen happens, which is the
forty nine ers who have been around but then rebounding
(19:32):
Philadelphia coming back to the pack quite a bit, we
will have a little bit of a shakeup. But man,
just seeing that four point four percent chance for Philadelphia
to win the Super Bowl eighth or ninth, I think
you have them among all the teams that that's.
Speaker 2 (19:45):
Pretty low on the list. Let's take a quick break.
Speaker 1 (19:47):
We're going to come back with more teams that caught
my eye in terms of their two thousand and twenty
five projections. Back on NFL Daily, talking with Aaron Shotts,
who's in Worcester, Massachusetts, which I know you didn't grow up.
Speaker 2 (20:13):
In, Aaron, I don't believe no. I'm Sharon Massachusetts, right.
Speaker 1 (20:17):
But used to kind of next, used to kind of
be the butt of jokes. But Worcester's on the comeback trail.
What do you have to say about people that used
to call Worcester like the the armpit of Massachusetts.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
We've got a good food scene here, it's coming back.
There's definitely been some really good restaurants to open up.
We have the Hanover Theater. There's like some life in Worcester.
There's no question of being listen. If I could afford it,
would I rather be in Boston.
Speaker 2 (20:40):
Oh no, don't say that.
Speaker 3 (20:41):
Good stuff happening here.
Speaker 1 (20:43):
Don't say that. I know Wester's great. I only say
that because I think it's underrated. You got Holy Cross there.
Speaking of underrated, we've got the Raiders with your projections
getting eight point three wins, which is, you know, an
average team thirty eight point six percent chance of making
the playoffs this year according to your almanak, that is
(21:05):
ahead of the Chargers.
Speaker 2 (21:06):
I know Raiders fans will love that.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
I think if you ask the average Raiders fan if
they would take that, like thirty nine percent chance of
making the playoffs and at least eight wins, I think
they would sign up for that in a heartbeat. I
was surprised, though, to see it Aarin, because of all
the questions on the defense. To me, the defense is
(21:30):
one big question mark. And yes, Pete Carroll is there,
but if you just look at total talent that you
know is going to be healthy, there's an argument you
know they are among the bottom five defenses in the league.
What is it that your numbers liked about the Raiders.
Speaker 3 (21:46):
I think we're expecting Wilkins and Koots to be back,
and those are big additions, right, I mean, if those
two guys are back, then they're in a good place.
I will say, I feel like the the Raiders Chargers
thing is more about the Chargers being surprisingly low than
the Raiders being surprisingly high. We talk all the time
about teams with a high range of possibilities. I feel
(22:08):
like the Raiders have a low range of possibility. Inter
I feel like, with Pete Carroll and Gino Smith around,
this team is not going five and twelve, but it
also really doesn't feel like they're going twelve and five.
Speaker 2 (22:19):
I mean, I hope, I hope that you're right, Aaron.
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (22:24):
I look at the Raiders just the overall talent level.
Where do they excel other than like young tight ends?
And I like Pete Carroll, and I like Geno Sith
and I worry and I'm rooting for Gino Smith and
I'm rooting for the Raiders. Do worry that there's a
low range of outcomes that has them picking towards the
(22:46):
top of the draft.
Speaker 3 (22:47):
But right, I think it's even worse is if it's
a low range of outcomes that has them picking fourteenth. Right, Like,
they miss the playoffs, they go eight to nine, they're better,
but they missed the playoffs. And Gino Smith is old
and he is going to get old, and they do
need a young quarterback, right because what you know, we
think he's good this year, but he won't be as
(23:08):
good next year, and he won't be as good the
year after that. They might now be in purgatory where
you know, there are supposed to be a lot of
good quarterbacks in next year's draft. So we'll see. But
maybe they can't get the quarterback that they need.
Speaker 1 (23:20):
Man selflessly though, no, that is not the worst case
scenario them being like three and fourteen and me having
to eat it.
Speaker 2 (23:26):
I just don't know.
Speaker 3 (23:27):
I think Gino is good enough, They're not going to
go three and fourteen. And there is talent. They added
some talent, Wilkins being back, Coot's being back. I think
there are some good players on the offensive line. I
don't like this idea of starting Alex Kappa, but you know,
I mean, there's some good players The receivers are questionable, right,
it's mostly depending on two rookies. Jacoby Myers is a
(23:48):
night slot receiver, but he's no one idea of a
number one. But the number one is really Bowers.
Speaker 2 (23:53):
Right.
Speaker 1 (23:54):
Although Jacoby Myers all he costs was three for thirty
nine and Bill Belichick wouldn't give them that contract a
few years ago.
Speaker 3 (24:02):
And oh he's a great value.
Speaker 1 (24:03):
That contract has aged very well. Wait, why do you
why do you think you have the Charger solo? By
the way, while we're there, now we have.
Speaker 3 (24:09):
Their defense taking a big step back, and there are
questions about the offense. Again, this is another team that
we're like, we don't know what the receiver situation is.
They're going to depend on a second round rookie, probably
to start Trey Harris now that Mike Williams is retired,
and there's a lot of questions about their defense. Now,
what we may be is under playing the effect of
(24:32):
Jesse Minter, Right, because you were talking about what it's interesting,
why don't we have Washington improving so much? And then
coming back to the pack, that is essentially what we
have with the Chargers defense. They improved so much. We
have them coming back to the pack. But what if
Minter is a really great coordinator, it can counteract that,
then they're going to be better than our projections.
Speaker 1 (24:53):
Say, right, you're you're losing the idea of Joey Bosa,
who wasn't really Joey Bosa all the time.
Speaker 2 (25:00):
But you're a little thinner there. You're losing Punaford.
Speaker 1 (25:02):
You got such great production out of Dayon Henley and
a couple mid to late rounds.
Speaker 2 (25:08):
He still right cornerback.
Speaker 3 (25:09):
Picks like ar Heep still was so good last year.
Speaker 1 (25:12):
Cam Hart was very good for them too, and they're
both going to start Are they going to keep being
that good? There is something maybe just gonna have been
out there to the bowlt and everything, and there's something
about Harbaugh and Mentor that make you believe that that
part of it will stick.
Speaker 2 (25:24):
But I'm curious to see it.
Speaker 1 (25:26):
Two of the most talked about teams in the league,
the Cowboys and the Steelers, are quite low in your projections.
I've been talking about how I think the Cowboys have
a huge range of outcomes. You have both the Steelers
and the Cowboys as losing teams projected for seven point
seven wins each. You have them under thirty percent to
make the playoffs each you have the Cowboys closer to
(25:47):
the Giants. Let's start actually with the Steelers though, out
of these two, what is it about this team which
has added a lot of juice in the offseason in
terms of DK Metcalf and obviously Aaron Rodgers. What is
it about the Steelers with all the veteran talent that
they do have on defense that your model is not liking.
Speaker 3 (26:09):
I mean, first of all, we may be not taking
into consideration the magic of Mike Tomlin. I'll fully admit
Mike Tomlin's ability to manage every team to nine and eight.
He is crazy. Part of it is Aaron Rodgers. Like
Aaron Rodgers was bad last year. Aaron Rodgers is old
and was not good with the Jets, and the idea
that he's going to be good again with the Steelers
(26:31):
It's possible, but it doesn't seem likely. Yes, they have
DK Metcalf, but they lost George Pickens. How much is
Metcalf really better than Pickens? And then it sees the
defense taking a step back. There are some older players
on defense. It is overall and older defense. I love,
you know, Cam Hayward, but can he continue to keep
playing at this level? You know, they added Darius Slay,
(26:54):
but he's older. Like I think it sees the defense
taking a little bit of a step back.
Speaker 2 (26:59):
Yeah, that makes sense to me.
Speaker 1 (27:01):
And yeah, your numbers, And it was one of the
reasons why I felt like I was going crazy because
the eye test was that Aaron Rodgers was not playing
well last year. If you watched each and every snap
and the raw stats in terms of yards and like
touchdowns and interceptions, like people were like, no, actually he
was okay. But your your metrics in terms of like
(27:22):
the efficiency kind of clocked that he was closer to
where Russell Wilson and Justin Fields were playing last year
in terms of efficiency, that he's not necessarily an upgrade
at all. That he was getting a lot of cheap
yards like on third nine, not you know, like coming
up short of the sticks and not a guy who
was particularly effective. I'm surprised though, that your Cowboys projection
(27:45):
is so low with them getting Dak Prescott back, a
young guy. Yeah, young offensive line, which I think at
least there's a lot of draft capital there and there's
a lot of potential there. I think there is an
outcome where they're a really good defensive line. Defensive line, Like,
what do you think went into that?
Speaker 3 (28:03):
Yeah, I agree with you. It is a little bit
of a surprise that their offense doesn't rebound a little
bit more. You know, you have the new coach. All
other things being equal, when you have a new system,
teams take a step back. You don't normally notice it
because teams were bad and the effect of regression to
the mean is stronger than the effect of take a
little step back with new coaching. But there is you know,
(28:26):
and I mean, I will say subjectively separate from what
the system says. I'm not a Bride Schottenheimer guy as
far as him being the head coach and running the
offense as well. But no, I mean, listen, Dak Prescott
was an MVP candidate two years ago. We absolutely may
be underrating how important it is to get him back.
He didn't play that great last year, but he didn't
(28:46):
play that great in like six games. It's not a
real sample size.
Speaker 1 (28:51):
Right, and enough weapons I think for him with Pickens
there with Jake Ferguson, who I think is that it
underrated tider.
Speaker 3 (28:56):
Ferguson was terrible last year by the list the quarterbacks
throwing him, but he wasn't very good with Prescott throwing
to him either, which again is probably small sample size
and he's better than that, but it is worth saying.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
Absolutely fair.
Speaker 1 (29:10):
I'm actually glad you pointed that out. I don't know
if we've got a Jake Ferguson conversation on this podcast
over the last year. You're right that he was not
the same guy. He falls into the bucket to me
of players that I used to think about when I
did fantasy. But I think it applies reality wise too.
If you have a young player who has shown a
consistent level of high quality, he can get back to
(29:31):
that point. But you're absolutely right, and I think he
showed that in twenty twenty three, but he was not
that guy last year. So we'll see who he really
is just before we go. I know I didn't mention
this one to you. It does strike me looking at
your numbers that the Panthers are dead last, like five
and a half wins, under ten percent chance to make
the playoffs. There is this feeling of like they turned
(29:54):
a little bit of a corner last year, and then
your big brain and your big number is just here
to like pour a whole bunch of water that actually
know there's a chance they're picking first.
Speaker 3 (30:04):
Overall, again, the turning the corner was not as good
as people seem to remember it being. But also I
know that this goes counter to what we think is intuitive,
But teams that improve in the second half of the season,
it's not an indicator that it's going to roll over
to the following season. I know we want to believe
improvement in the second half of the season means you're
(30:26):
going to be better the next season, especially with young players,
right and Bryce Young is still young quarterback, But it
really doesn't mean that. You need to look at the
whole year. And the whole year was pretty bad, especially
the defense. There's nothing Bryce Young can do about that.
And they didn't really add much this offseason to the defense,
and the defense was really bad and it's probably going
(30:48):
to be really bad again. That being said, they have hope.
I feel like the Saints are the worst team in
the league because they do not have hope, at least
the Panthers. If you're a Panthers fan, you have hope.
You have more hope that I'm wrong than I think
like a Saints fan has.
Speaker 1 (31:06):
Yeah, you have the Saints projected to be like the
thirtieth best team in the league. Part of that is
scheduled too, that their schedule is a little easier than
the Panthers. But it raised a good point that almost
the easiest thing in the NFL to do is to
go from two to five wins, Like, we don't need
to be giving too much of a pat on the
back to the Panthers to go from two to five wins.
(31:26):
They actually were outscored by more points last year than
they were in their two and fifteen season. I do
think that they made an effort to really improve that defense,
and I do believe in the coaching a Giro Evro
a little more than what's shown up on the field overall,
So I'm a little more optimistic, but I think it
does make sense to apply a little bit of a caution.
(31:49):
And I do agree with the notion that the NFC South,
to me, is more separated than people realize. I think
the Saints and the Panthers are kind of in a
bucket at the bottom. I think the bucks are kind
of clearly on top, and that the Falcons are kind
of clearly in the middle of those groups, whereas Panthers
fans probably feel like they're a little more in the
mix than you do.
Speaker 3 (32:11):
At least, my ten year's chapter for Tampa Bay definitely
argues that we should take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers seriously
and not just think that they're a team that gets
a buy into the tournament because of the division that
they play in. Yeah, there are still some people there
that played on a Super Bowl winning.
Speaker 1 (32:26):
Team, right and stacked up some wins after that Super
Bowl win and always seem to be playing their best
at the end of the season. And I think are
built the right way, which is with an outstanding office line.
Speaker 2 (32:39):
Yes, and very good front office.
Speaker 1 (32:42):
Who knows, someday, maybe shots they'll they'll finally take you
out of that office and put you into a front office.
But until then, you're going to be producing the best
preview almanac, whether it's a magazine or whatever. Now the
airport magazines like the fantasy magans are like fifteen bucks,
you might as well buy a book. Anyways, everyone check
(33:03):
out the FTN Football Almanac twenty twenty five. Just google
it or go to FTN Fantasy. You can absolutely find it.
Get it online, get the hard copy, whatever you want
to get. Appreciate you, Aaron.
Speaker 3 (33:18):
Thanks for having me on.
Speaker 1 (33:20):
That is it for this week of shows, our first
week back doing daily shows on Sunday evening.
Speaker 2 (33:27):
We're going to post it a little bit early.
Speaker 1 (33:29):
Some of my favorite shows of the year are our
training camp shows where we collect all the nuggets and
the news items that most shows are just too lazy
or just don't care enough to do. So we're going
to go through each and every team with Nick Schuk,
starting with the AFC on Sunday night.
Speaker 2 (33:48):
When we're doing those types of shows, you know it.
Football is back.
Hey guys, this is Greg Rosenthald. This is the NFL Daily.
The regular top of the show is going to be
in just a minute. But after we recorded a great
show with Aaron Schottz looking at some team projections, we
got the news that Christian Wilkins of the Raiders has
been released by the team. The Raiders are one of
the teams that we talked about at length in this show,
so we wanted to get it updated, especially because this
(00:26):
is the first news bomb drop that we've had. He
to remind you, Christian Wilkins, formerly of the Miami Dolphins,
seinety five year, one hundred and ten million dollar contract
just a year ago. At the time, it was reported
that eighty four million dollars of it was guaranteed. Wilkins
has already gotten just about fifty million dollars of that guaranteed.
(00:49):
And it sounds like, according to our insider Ian Rappaport,
who has been out front with this story, that there
is a disagreement between the Raiders and Christian Wilkins about
how he has been rehabbing that surgically repaired foot. They
wanted him to get surgery. They had multiple medical opinions
that said to get another surgery.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
He didn't want to do it.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
They tried to take away a big chunk of his
guaranteed money, about thirty five million dollars. He and the
NFLPA apparently has filed a grievance to get that thirty
five million dollars. So sometimes when the insiders report fully guaranteed,
it might not be fully guaranteed, but that will be
settled in the court system. And I guess between the
(01:35):
money and the injury, the Raiders in this new era,
with John Spytech at GM and Pete Carroll at head coach,
decided this guy just isn't worth it, which is pretty
surprising for a guy who was a top ten defensive
tackle really when they brought him into Las Vegas. But
obviously the injury has really changed his career. He was
(01:58):
only able to play five game for the Raiders. The
money situation is going to be done in the court system,
but it really leaves the Raiders in an interesting spot.
They are putting a ton of dead money onto their
cap this year, basically taking the pain of all that
money this year and saying it's not even worth keeping.
(02:21):
Christian Wilkins will eat the money this year. And try
to be free of everything a year from now. But
very disappointing for them because it's not like it helps
their cap situation. It actually raises their salary cap situation.
And this is one thing you can do with an
excess of salary cap situation is eat it all now
and move it into the future. But man, if you
(02:41):
look at the Raiders roster at defensive tackle, it is
about as thin as any team in the entire NFL.
Adam Butler is their number one defensive tackle. After that,
it's really a question mark. Who is going to be
starting for this team, whether it's Lucky Foto I believe
is listed as the starter.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
Right now, they have a rookie, you.
Speaker 1 (02:59):
Know, third day pick, Tanka Hemingway. It's not great. They're
gonna have to maybe look at free agency. But I
think it's a sign of an organization Pete Carroll, John
Spytek who want their guys who are willing to take
a little short term pain. So maybe it makes sense
to take short term pain for a little long term game.
But man, it is hard to be optimistic about that
Raiders defensive line, especially in the middle.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Now, let's get to the rest of the show.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're two decades into explaining
what DVOA is. I'm Greg Rosenthal, and yes we are
gonna have the originator of the stat on this show.
Throughout it is Aaron Shots of the FDN Football Almanac,
and Aaron, I have been like quoting DVA is just
(03:51):
sort of like a quick and dirty best way to
measure a team's overall efficiency for like two decades, and
at this point I feel like I should just stop
explaining what it means. But there is really no easy
way to explain what it means.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
No there is. It measures the success, Okay, but every
play compared to a league average, adjusted for situation and opponent.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
Okay, that's the short version. I've got to copy that.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
But it's a very smart way, and I'm a simple
man to get where a team is where they're potentially going,
and we use it throughout the course of the season,
and of course Aaron uses it to write what, to
me is the best primer preview if you're going to
get one thing to get ready for the season. To me,
it is the FDN Football Almanac. If you've listened to
(04:38):
this show and around the NFL for a while used
to be called football outsiders, and I recommend everyone go
and get that.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
And so I got it.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
And what I thought we would do today, Aaron is
just go through a handful of teams and we'll try
to pick ones that maybe we haven't talked about as
much on this show. And then we'll also pick ones
that just stuck out kind of for surprising projections. And
we'll start with the forty nine ers, who I noticed
(05:10):
in your projections and out in Vegas, you're basically looking
at a total rebound. You have the forty nine Ers
at projected for eleven point two wins, which is the
most in the NFC, it's the third most in the NFL.
You have them with a seventy nine point seven percent
(05:31):
chance to make the playoffs. And what really surprised me
was you have them almost two wins ahead of the
Cardinals and the Rams, who are very closely bunched behind them.
Give me kind of the statistical reasons why you guys
are so bullish on San Francisco.
Speaker 3 (05:49):
First, I'll mention San Francisco is actually our sample chapter.
So if you want to see what the FTN Football
Almanac is about, you can go to FTN Fantasy Slash
Almanac and actually read the entire San Francisco chapter that
Brian Knowles wrote. The forty nine ers were better than
you think last year despite the injuries. They were fourteenth
(06:14):
in DVOA, despite leading the league in adjusted games lost
to injury, and they were fourteenth in part because their
special teams were really bad, which doesn't tend to carry
over from year to year. So offense and defense wise,
they were even better than that. They were the best
eleven loss team since nineteen seventy eight by DVOA.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
That's a wild it's a wild time.
Speaker 3 (06:40):
I realize you don't put a banner up for right.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
It's a weird one.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
As far as what they're gonna do this year, it
suggests good things now.
Speaker 1 (06:47):
They obviously have questions to me more than anywhere on
the defensive line, like a lot of changes there. You're
counting on potentially three rookies to have pretty big roles
and a couple guys who haven't played, you know, at
a particularly high level at defensive tackle. What is it though,
(07:09):
that makes them stand out in terms of having that
big of a projection other than the schedule, because the
rest of the NFC West on some level has a
similar schedule. What puts them like a couple wins ahead?
Is it just that tried and true Shanahan offense essentially
plus all the injury games that they missed a year ago.
Speaker 3 (07:31):
That's a lot of it. And schedule wise, you know,
the NFC West has mostly the same schedule, but the
three games that are based on where you place in
the standings, it just because of which divisions. That is,
the forty nine ers is much easier than the other
three teams in the division. Defensive I mean again, they
were better than you think last year. Defensively they were thirteenth.
(07:53):
Offensively they were nine. So let's imagine that the defense,
right is healthier, but you've got rookies, guys left whatever
does about the same thing thirteen the offense. We're big
believers in Shanahan healthier. Again, on offense, they have McCaffrey
for most of the year, If they have Ayuk for
most of the year, although it does seem like he's
going to miss the beginning of the year, right, they
(08:15):
get a little bit better on offense. Let's say you
combine that with the really easy schedule, you have a
division champion.
Speaker 1 (08:22):
Yeah, I think that the case against them and that
all makes sense to them. And I haven't decided whether
like they're going to be one of my playoff teams
or not, but i'd probably lean towards yes, and your
projections influence that sum that the case against them to
me would be okay. The two things on offense that
you feel like you can count on opposite the scheme
(08:42):
is Perdy, who I think is a good, young, improving quarterback,
and Kittle, who's still playing at a very high level.
After that, it gets pretty murky because County on Kristin
McCaffrey to just be healthy is a little murky. Ricky
Piersall in his short career hasn't shown too much and
he has got some injury issues. Obviously, Deebo Samuel's gone
(09:03):
and wasn't playing at the same level. We don't really
know about Ayuk And every year forty nine Ers fans
look at their offensive line and they're like, why didn't
we invest more?
Speaker 2 (09:13):
And it's kind of another season like that.
Speaker 1 (09:14):
You feel great about Trent Williams, you feel great about
the youngster Dominic Pooney.
Speaker 2 (09:19):
After that, it's pretty shaky.
Speaker 1 (09:21):
If Trent Williams, for instance, were to miss some games
this year like he has, you know at points the
last couple of years. I don't know if they have
a backup plan as much in place, and so I
get the projection. To me, they seem like, along with
the Cowboys, who we might hit as well as one
of the highest variants teams in the league. You could
absolutely see a scenario where they are back there where
(09:41):
Kyle Shanahan lives in the NFC Championship game, and I
think you could see a scenario where they're closer to
five hundred.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
But one of the things I love about your alm
in that.
Speaker 1 (09:51):
Kid is it does point out things like, not only
were they not as bad as you remember a year ago,
Like man, they lost a lot of tight games to
really good tea until the injury wheels fell off. It
was like at the last second, and sometimes the emotion
of watching the season you do overrate that.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
You guys are absolutely right.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
They were losing the very good teams, They were very
close games, and really they probably weren't as bad as
they were a year ago. A lot of variants, though
I feel like they're not. Yeah, I feel like I
know more about the Rams at least.
Speaker 3 (10:20):
I think about. Part of the variants is something you
alluded to a little bit with the offensive line. This
is a team with bad depth if they get hit
by a lot of injuries. Again, that's what they really
lost when they lost guys this offseason, is they lost
a lot of their depth. Right, pierceall is no longer death,
(10:40):
He's now a starter. Right. Like defensively, they're going to
depend on rookies and they don't necessarily have good guys
behind them that if they have the injuries, I don't
know if they have the depth to be, you know,
five hundred for five or six weeks while they wait
for everybody to get healthy. Again.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
Yeah, that checks out.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
I think it was interesting you had the Cardinals just
very slightly, but essentially you had the Cardinals and the
Rams at the same spot. And that that, you know,
is really supportive of our Cardinals love on this show
and I like hearing that. Let's go to the AFC South.
You have the Jaguars projected to win the division. It's
(11:21):
only by you know, half a game in your projections,
but you have the Jaguars at nine wins. You have
them at a fifty four point seven percent chance to
make the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (11:32):
What helped the Jaguars.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
It was probably the most surprising, Maybe not the most surprising,
but it was up there with the most surprising division
winners over the Texans this year.
Speaker 3 (11:43):
Well, the Texans. You have an issue that comes up
with a number of teams, which is defense is less
consistent from year to year than offense. So when you
have a team that was so good on defense and
not good on offense, which was the case with last
year's Texans, you expected it's more likely that the defense
comes back to the pack a little bit than that
(12:04):
the offense improves, especially since they still have tons of
questions on their offensive line. With Jacksonville, we see a
defensive improvement. They were the lowest team in the league
in takeaways per drive last year, only four point seven
percent of drives ended with turnovers. That is something that
heavily regresses to the mean from year to year. They
(12:25):
were terrible against the run on third downs, better on
first downs. That's also something where first down run defense
tends to carry over more. Third downs are obviously really important,
but there's less of them, so the sample sizes and
is big. I think some of this is we had
to guess about Travis Hunter. Like, we give credit for
drafting defensive players in the first couple of rounds because
(12:48):
defensive players actually tend to have a more predictable effect
on the team than offensive players when you draft them.
Is Travis Hunter defensive player? Like that?
Speaker 1 (13:00):
Know?
Speaker 3 (13:00):
Does he count as an offensive player? Mean?
Speaker 2 (13:02):
He counts us both? Why wouldn't he he count us both?
Speaker 3 (13:04):
Right, we counted him as both. So if he's not
a big addition to the defense, then maybe we're overrating
their defense a little bit. Maybe their defense is below
average and now they fall behind Houston. But on offense,
I think we may be underplaying them. Listen, I'm one
of those people, and there's a lot of us out
there who still think the Trevor Lawrence has got it right.
(13:28):
He just needs a coach to unlock it. And there
is a feeling like Liam Cohen can be that coach.
Brian Thomas Junior is so good having Travis Hunter now
as the second wide receiver. Yeah, there's questions about the
offensive live but Trevor Lawrence cod should still be good.
So this even if the defense doesn't live up to
our projection, I feel like the offense can be better
(13:49):
than our projection.
Speaker 1 (13:50):
I agree with you on the offensive side. I never
thought i'd hear the day where Aaron Shottz uses the
word that a quarterback has it, you know, very analytically
sound there, And it's funny because I would push back
on that. For Trevor Larns, I think he's got everything
but it, and that's yeah.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
I mean I'm thinking, I guess I'm thinking more about
his natural abilities rather than instinct I guess when people
say that someone has hits, they're thinking more instincts and
leaderskip shills, leadership skills, and I'm thinking more the arm.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
Yes, I do think he has the talent to get
it done. I think in the right system he can
pop up. I think there is something, whether it's mentally,
whether it's just as simple as reading defenses and needing
more time in the NFL to kind of mature on
that front, or yeah, just that Jenna say qua that
you want out of your quarterback.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
I don't think he's shown that yet.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
And yet I can see the case for them on offense,
because immediately, if Travis Hunter is as good as I
personally think he is, I think that's up there with
the best wide receiver combinations in the league, and not
like the best young wide receiver combinations, just one of
the best wide receiver combinations. And then I think Liam
(15:02):
Cohen is going to be able to scheme up a
pretty good running game to support them as well. The
offensive line definitely has question marks, like we don't know
enough about Anthony Campanille, their defensive coordinator. But I see
the case there. Was surprised to see them over the Texans.
I was even more surprised, though, Aaron, to see the
optimism that you guys have for the Commanders. This was
(15:23):
probably the number one thing that stuck out to me
when I first opened The first thing I do is
check the projections. You have the Commanders at ten point
six wins. That's about a win ahead of the Eagles.
So you have the Commanders with a seventy four percent
chance to make the playoffs, a better chance to win
the NFC East over Philadelphia. It's the second best odds
(15:45):
in the NFC to make the Super Bowl. What is
it that your numbers are telling you about the Commanders?
Because for readers of your almanac, very often a team
that improves so much one year to the next, you
often expect a regression the next year, and you're kind
of predicting the opposite here.
Speaker 3 (16:04):
This is a little abnormal. You're right, And also fourth
downs are going to regress. They were like possibly the
best fourth down team ever last year if you consider
how successful they were on fourth downs and how often
they went for it, And there's no way that that
continues again. But the system thinks that that is going
to be countered by the additions like Samuel and Laramie Tunsel.
(16:28):
And it doesn't necessarily think Daniels is going to get better,
but it doesn't think he's going to get worse. There
is an individual quarterback projection part of the team projections,
and it likes Daniels a lot, and it has The
defense was twenty third last year, going to improve a
little bit to be more like sixteenth or seventeen, which
I think they can do if Lattimore is healthy and
(16:51):
Trey Amos is good. And I know that there are
questions about who is going to exactly rush the passer
other than Frankie Louvu. But if they can put an
average defense out there with a very good offense, then
this is a pretty darn good team. And schedule again
plays a role. They have an easier schedule than the Eagles,
who liked the Texans. We think the defense was so
(17:13):
good last year and so important to what they did.
Even if it is still one of the best defenses
in the league, if it's not as good as it
was last year and they lost a lot of talent,
the Eagles lost more veteran defensive talent than any other
team with the variable that I use for losing veteran talent.
If the defense is not quite as good as it
(17:35):
was last year, then the Eagles they're still one of
the top teams in the league, but in their own
division they have to fight with the Commanders, who we
also think are one of the top teams in the league.
Speaker 1 (17:45):
Yeah, you have them in your overall DVOA projections for
the year. The Eagles as the seventh best team in
the NFL, So not that much different than where Washington
is at five. But that's interesting because to me and
the Eagles have a very high ceiling for the offense.
But what your numbers are looking at and you still
(18:07):
have them in the top ten, you have them ninth.
Is that for so much of last season, really for
the last season and a half. The offense during the
regular season has been inconsistent. It's why Eagles fans are
frustrated with Jalen Hurts's quarterback rankings and all that sort
of stuff. But I'm I'm amazed that you have the
commanders so high, and I think I think it's something
(18:30):
commanders fans can put in their pocket and push back
against everyone who just naturally as analysts Aaron like, no
one wants to predict the same teams to make the
Final four or the Final eight every year, and when
you're looking at it from a year ago, like Washington
is the team, I think that the national media is
just going to expect to fall off except for you.
Speaker 3 (18:52):
Yeah, no, I understand that. And normally we absolutely believe
in the plexiglass principle, which is teams that significantly improve
from one year to the next tend to then take
a step back in year three. The fact that we
have the commanders going counter to that is counter to
what normally comes out of our projection systems. There's no
question about that.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
And I was talking on our last show with Jordan
Rodriegan with Bridget Condon that, Yeah, something doesn't sit right
that We've had such elite consistency at the top of
the league really for the last couple of years. And really,
if what you project to happen happens, which is the
forty nine ers who have been around but then rebounding
(19:32):
Philadelphia coming back to the pack quite a bit, we
will have a little bit of a shakeup. But man,
just seeing that four point four percent chance for Philadelphia
to win the Super Bowl eighth or ninth, I think
you have them among all the teams that that's.
Speaker 2 (19:45):
Pretty low on the list. Let's take a quick break.
Speaker 1 (19:47):
We're going to come back with more teams that caught
my eye in terms of their two thousand and twenty
five projections. Back on NFL Daily, talking with Aaron Shotts,
who's in Worcester, Massachusetts, which I know you didn't grow up.
Speaker 2 (20:13):
In, Aaron, I don't believe no. I'm Sharon Massachusetts, right.
Speaker 1 (20:17):
But used to kind of next, used to kind of
be the butt of jokes. But Worcester's on the comeback trail.
What do you have to say about people that used
to call Worcester like the the armpit of Massachusetts.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
We've got a good food scene here, it's coming back.
There's definitely been some really good restaurants to open up.
We have the Hanover Theater. There's like some life in Worcester.
There's no question of being listen. If I could afford it,
would I rather be in Boston.
Speaker 2 (20:40):
Oh no, don't say that.
Speaker 3 (20:41):
Good stuff happening here.
Speaker 1 (20:43):
Don't say that. I know Wester's great. I only say
that because I think it's underrated. You got Holy Cross there.
Speaking of underrated, we've got the Raiders with your projections
getting eight point three wins, which is, you know, an
average team thirty eight point six percent chance of making
the playoffs this year according to your almanak, that is
(21:05):
ahead of the Chargers.
Speaker 2 (21:06):
I know Raiders fans will love that.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
I think if you ask the average Raiders fan if
they would take that, like thirty nine percent chance of
making the playoffs and at least eight wins, I think
they would sign up for that in a heartbeat. I
was surprised, though, to see it Aarin, because of all
the questions on the defense. To me, the defense is
(21:30):
one big question mark. And yes, Pete Carroll is there,
but if you just look at total talent that you
know is going to be healthy, there's an argument you
know they are among the bottom five defenses in the league.
What is it that your numbers liked about the Raiders.
Speaker 3 (21:46):
I think we're expecting Wilkins and Koots to be back,
and those are big additions, right, I mean, if those
two guys are back, then they're in a good place.
I will say, I feel like the the Raiders Chargers
thing is more about the Chargers being surprisingly low than
the Raiders being surprisingly high. We talk all the time
about teams with a high range of possibilities. I feel
(22:08):
like the Raiders have a low range of possibility. Inter
I feel like, with Pete Carroll and Gino Smith around,
this team is not going five and twelve, but it
also really doesn't feel like they're going twelve and five.
Speaker 2 (22:19):
I mean, I hope, I hope that you're right, Aaron.
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (22:24):
I look at the Raiders just the overall talent level.
Where do they excel other than like young tight ends?
And I like Pete Carroll, and I like Geno Sith
and I worry and I'm rooting for Gino Smith and
I'm rooting for the Raiders. Do worry that there's a
low range of outcomes that has them picking towards the
(22:46):
top of the draft.
Speaker 3 (22:47):
But right, I think it's even worse is if it's
a low range of outcomes that has them picking fourteenth. Right, Like,
they miss the playoffs, they go eight to nine, they're better,
but they missed the playoffs. And Gino Smith is old
and he is going to get old, and they do
need a young quarterback, right because what you know, we
think he's good this year, but he won't be as
(23:08):
good next year, and he won't be as good the
year after that. They might now be in purgatory where
you know, there are supposed to be a lot of
good quarterbacks in next year's draft. So we'll see. But
maybe they can't get the quarterback that they need.
Speaker 1 (23:20):
Man selflessly though, no, that is not the worst case
scenario them being like three and fourteen and me having
to eat it.
Speaker 2 (23:26):
I just don't know.
Speaker 3 (23:27):
I think Gino is good enough, They're not going to
go three and fourteen. And there is talent. They added
some talent, Wilkins being back, Coot's being back. I think
there are some good players on the offensive line. I
don't like this idea of starting Alex Kappa, but you know,
I mean, there's some good players The receivers are questionable, right,
it's mostly depending on two rookies. Jacoby Myers is a
(23:48):
night slot receiver, but he's no one idea of a
number one. But the number one is really Bowers.
Speaker 2 (23:53):
Right.
Speaker 1 (23:54):
Although Jacoby Myers all he costs was three for thirty
nine and Bill Belichick wouldn't give them that contract a
few years ago.
Speaker 3 (24:02):
And oh he's a great value.
Speaker 1 (24:03):
That contract has aged very well. Wait, why do you
why do you think you have the Charger solo? By
the way, while we're there, now we have.
Speaker 3 (24:09):
Their defense taking a big step back, and there are
questions about the offense. Again, this is another team that
we're like, we don't know what the receiver situation is.
They're going to depend on a second round rookie, probably
to start Trey Harris now that Mike Williams is retired,
and there's a lot of questions about their defense. Now,
what we may be is under playing the effect of
(24:32):
Jesse Minter, Right, because you were talking about what it's interesting,
why don't we have Washington improving so much? And then
coming back to the pack, that is essentially what we
have with the Chargers defense. They improved so much. We
have them coming back to the pack. But what if
Minter is a really great coordinator, it can counteract that,
then they're going to be better than our projections.
Speaker 1 (24:53):
Say, right, you're you're losing the idea of Joey Bosa,
who wasn't really Joey Bosa all the time.
Speaker 2 (25:00):
But you're a little thinner there. You're losing Punaford.
Speaker 1 (25:02):
You got such great production out of Dayon Henley and
a couple mid to late rounds.
Speaker 2 (25:08):
He still right cornerback.
Speaker 3 (25:09):
Picks like ar Heep still was so good last year.
Speaker 1 (25:12):
Cam Hart was very good for them too, and they're
both going to start Are they going to keep being
that good? There is something maybe just gonna have been
out there to the bowlt and everything, and there's something
about Harbaugh and Mentor that make you believe that that
part of it will stick.
Speaker 2 (25:24):
But I'm curious to see it.
Speaker 1 (25:26):
Two of the most talked about teams in the league,
the Cowboys and the Steelers, are quite low in your projections.
I've been talking about how I think the Cowboys have
a huge range of outcomes. You have both the Steelers
and the Cowboys as losing teams projected for seven point
seven wins each. You have them under thirty percent to
make the playoffs each you have the Cowboys closer to
(25:47):
the Giants. Let's start actually with the Steelers though, out
of these two, what is it about this team which
has added a lot of juice in the offseason in
terms of DK Metcalf and obviously Aaron Rodgers. What is
it about the Steelers with all the veteran talent that
they do have on defense that your model is not liking.
Speaker 3 (26:09):
I mean, first of all, we may be not taking
into consideration the magic of Mike Tomlin. I'll fully admit
Mike Tomlin's ability to manage every team to nine and eight.
He is crazy. Part of it is Aaron Rodgers. Like
Aaron Rodgers was bad last year. Aaron Rodgers is old
and was not good with the Jets, and the idea
that he's going to be good again with the Steelers
(26:31):
It's possible, but it doesn't seem likely. Yes, they have
DK Metcalf, but they lost George Pickens. How much is
Metcalf really better than Pickens? And then it sees the
defense taking a step back. There are some older players
on defense. It is overall and older defense. I love,
you know, Cam Hayward, but can he continue to keep
playing at this level? You know, they added Darius Slay,
(26:54):
but he's older. Like I think it sees the defense
taking a little bit of a step back.
Speaker 2 (26:59):
Yeah, that makes sense to me.
Speaker 1 (27:01):
And yeah, your numbers, And it was one of the
reasons why I felt like I was going crazy because
the eye test was that Aaron Rodgers was not playing
well last year. If you watched each and every snap
and the raw stats in terms of yards and like
touchdowns and interceptions, like people were like, no, actually he
was okay. But your your metrics in terms of like
(27:22):
the efficiency kind of clocked that he was closer to
where Russell Wilson and Justin Fields were playing last year
in terms of efficiency, that he's not necessarily an upgrade
at all. That he was getting a lot of cheap
yards like on third nine, not you know, like coming
up short of the sticks and not a guy who
was particularly effective. I'm surprised though, that your Cowboys projection
(27:45):
is so low with them getting Dak Prescott back, a
young guy. Yeah, young offensive line, which I think at
least there's a lot of draft capital there and there's
a lot of potential there. I think there is an
outcome where they're a really good defensive line. Defensive line, Like,
what do you think went into that?
Speaker 3 (28:03):
Yeah, I agree with you. It is a little bit
of a surprise that their offense doesn't rebound a little
bit more. You know, you have the new coach. All
other things being equal, when you have a new system,
teams take a step back. You don't normally notice it
because teams were bad and the effect of regression to
the mean is stronger than the effect of take a
little step back with new coaching. But there is you know,
(28:26):
and I mean, I will say subjectively separate from what
the system says. I'm not a Bride Schottenheimer guy as
far as him being the head coach and running the
offense as well. But no, I mean, listen, Dak Prescott
was an MVP candidate two years ago. We absolutely may
be underrating how important it is to get him back.
He didn't play that great last year, but he didn't
(28:46):
play that great in like six games. It's not a
real sample size.
Speaker 1 (28:51):
Right, and enough weapons I think for him with Pickens
there with Jake Ferguson, who I think is that it
underrated tider.
Speaker 3 (28:56):
Ferguson was terrible last year by the list the quarterbacks
throwing him, but he wasn't very good with Prescott throwing
to him either, which again is probably small sample size
and he's better than that, but it is worth saying.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
Absolutely fair.
Speaker 1 (29:10):
I'm actually glad you pointed that out. I don't know
if we've got a Jake Ferguson conversation on this podcast
over the last year. You're right that he was not
the same guy. He falls into the bucket to me
of players that I used to think about when I
did fantasy. But I think it applies reality wise too.
If you have a young player who has shown a
consistent level of high quality, he can get back to
(29:31):
that point. But you're absolutely right, and I think he
showed that in twenty twenty three, but he was not
that guy last year. So we'll see who he really
is just before we go. I know I didn't mention
this one to you. It does strike me looking at
your numbers that the Panthers are dead last, like five
and a half wins, under ten percent chance to make
the playoffs. There is this feeling of like they turned
(29:54):
a little bit of a corner last year, and then
your big brain and your big number is just here
to like pour a whole bunch of water that actually
know there's a chance they're picking first.
Speaker 3 (30:04):
Overall, again, the turning the corner was not as good
as people seem to remember it being. But also I
know that this goes counter to what we think is intuitive,
But teams that improve in the second half of the season,
it's not an indicator that it's going to roll over
to the following season. I know we want to believe
improvement in the second half of the season means you're
(30:26):
going to be better the next season, especially with young players,
right and Bryce Young is still young quarterback, But it
really doesn't mean that. You need to look at the
whole year. And the whole year was pretty bad, especially
the defense. There's nothing Bryce Young can do about that.
And they didn't really add much this offseason to the defense,
and the defense was really bad and it's probably going
(30:48):
to be really bad again. That being said, they have hope.
I feel like the Saints are the worst team in
the league because they do not have hope, at least
the Panthers. If you're a Panthers fan, you have hope.
You have more hope that I'm wrong than I think
like a Saints fan has.
Speaker 1 (31:06):
Yeah, you have the Saints projected to be like the
thirtieth best team in the league. Part of that is
scheduled too, that their schedule is a little easier than
the Panthers. But it raised a good point that almost
the easiest thing in the NFL to do is to
go from two to five wins, Like, we don't need
to be giving too much of a pat on the
back to the Panthers to go from two to five wins.
(31:26):
They actually were outscored by more points last year than
they were in their two and fifteen season. I do
think that they made an effort to really improve that defense,
and I do believe in the coaching a Giro Evro
a little more than what's shown up on the field overall,
So I'm a little more optimistic, but I think it
does make sense to apply a little bit of a caution.
(31:49):
And I do agree with the notion that the NFC South,
to me, is more separated than people realize. I think
the Saints and the Panthers are kind of in a
bucket at the bottom. I think the bucks are kind
of clearly on top, and that the Falcons are kind
of clearly in the middle of those groups, whereas Panthers
fans probably feel like they're a little more in the
mix than you do.
Speaker 3 (32:11):
At least, my ten year's chapter for Tampa Bay definitely
argues that we should take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers seriously
and not just think that they're a team that gets
a buy into the tournament because of the division that
they play in. Yeah, there are still some people there
that played on a Super Bowl winning.
Speaker 1 (32:26):
Team, right and stacked up some wins after that Super
Bowl win and always seem to be playing their best
at the end of the season. And I think are
built the right way, which is with an outstanding office line.
Speaker 2 (32:39):
Yes, and very good front office.
Speaker 1 (32:42):
Who knows, someday, maybe shots they'll they'll finally take you
out of that office and put you into a front office.
But until then, you're going to be producing the best
preview almanac, whether it's a magazine or whatever. Now the
airport magazines like the fantasy magans are like fifteen bucks,
you might as well buy a book. Anyways, everyone check
(33:03):
out the FTN Football Almanac twenty twenty five. Just google
it or go to FTN Fantasy. You can absolutely find it.
Get it online, get the hard copy, whatever you want
to get. Appreciate you, Aaron.
Speaker 3 (33:18):
Thanks for having me on.
Speaker 1 (33:20):
That is it for this week of shows, our first
week back doing daily shows on Sunday evening.
Speaker 2 (33:27):
We're going to post it a little bit early.
Speaker 1 (33:29):
Some of my favorite shows of the year are our
training camp shows where we collect all the nuggets and
the news items that most shows are just too lazy
or just don't care enough to do. So we're going
to go through each and every team with Nick Schuk,
starting with the AFC on Sunday night.
Speaker 2 (33:48):
When we're doing those types of shows, you know it.
Football is back.
Host
Gregg Rosenthal
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