August 28, 2025 • 56 mins
Gregg Rosenthal is joined by FS1's Nick Wright for NFL Daily's annual Over/Unders Draft. Find out what side Gregg and Nick are on for the 2025 win totals of the Chiefs (03:52), Lions (07:30), Buccaneers (11:00), Colts (16:20), Raiders (20:40), Vikings (23:00), Broncos (25:50), Jets (31:00), 49ers (36:00), Cowboys (39:30), Commanders (45:10), Jaguars (48:00), Saints (50:00), Bengals (51:10), and Bears (54:00).
Note: time codes appoximate.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we've just been killing time
since our last over under win Totals draft. I'm Greg
Rosenthal and I am so excited to be joined this
year by my number one pick for this show. It's
Nick Right. You know them, hopefully you love them. They've
expanded First Things First to an extra hour. It's three
(00:26):
to six every day Eastern. He also has a great
show on YouTube, What's Right with Nick? Right? Nick, you
talk so much openly about your maybe irresponsible gambling that
you just felt like the right man for this show.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Yeah, listen, everyone should gamble responsibly, but that is a
do as I say, not as I do, edict. And yeah,
this is the best time of year, and thank you
for it. Is a true pleasure to be on my
favorite daily podcast. That is not an exaggeration, that is true.
It has helped. It is the best way for me
(01:02):
to keep up with everything that's happening in the NFL
during the off season. And if I may shout out
Jordan Rodrieg, who I've never met, never spoken with, who
I think just does an awesome job. I also feel
like I know Nick Shook really well from the pods,
and I know there's a whole cast of characters and
everybody does a great job. But I really appreciate you
(01:23):
having me on. And now I get is are there
stakes on this? Like? How do we determine winners? Is there?
Because there I wanted.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
For the NFL, which has saved me a lot of
you know, drama internally. But I think we can. I
think we can figure out something that could make it fun.
That's that's just something.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
We could just be podcasts related like the winner, like
the the winner has to have the other guys podcast
logo in the background for an episode or something perfect.
I don't you know what I mean that feels because
I feel confident.
Speaker 1 (01:57):
I've honked about it too much. But I'm gonna three
year heater with this show. You know, we did it
back in the around the NFL days. We've only done
three to four picks every year, so it's it's just
ten picks over the last three years. So I'm ten
and oh over the last three years doing this show.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
Wait, you're hold on, You have eleven and one. You
haven't missed one.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
Haven't missed a single? One three and oh four O
four O. Now I'm good. That streak's probably ending today
because we were talking and I agree, it's just the
two of us. It's been three or four in the past.
I think it'd be fun to get to more shows.
And actually, if you check out What's right with Nick, right,
he's going through each and every team. But I've I've
avoided that. That's already up on his show.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
So I was worried about that. I was avoiding to
front where you're going to get to know my my process?
Can I ask a rule here?
Speaker 1 (02:46):
Yes? All right?
Speaker 2 (02:48):
If you take a team, yes, is that team is
Let's say you had the I'm just going to pick
a random one. Let's say you had the Eagles and
you had them over eleven and a half. Do I
have the ability to take the under on that scene? Okay,
so teams get the only thing can't happen. I can't
have the exact same bet. But teams are eligible. Yes,
(03:11):
that is exact strategy.
Speaker 1 (03:13):
Yeah, to to put your stake down and say what
are your favorite picks and what we can't double up
on them? So it's a draft back and forth and yeah,
we're we're using the over underwind totals that are like
the most common. I think we took this one off
of ESPNS. We don't we don't, we don't have a
sponsor right now for picks, but hey, ESPN just bought us,
(03:34):
so why not nick I, because you know I do
wanted to just come to this fresh. I didn't look
at your picks, although I held back giving away one
of mine the other show just in case you were
listening out of strategy. But I will give you the
first pick, and I kind of have a feeling where
you're going.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
So here's the thing. You you think you know where
I'm going. You think that, and you're draft strategy has
probably been based a bit around that. You you really
have the first pick because you know where I'm going
to use my first pick. It's a little princess bride.
He knows that, I know that, he knows that I
know situation. So I'm gonna throw you a curveball and
(04:15):
not go with the team you think I'm going to
go with. I'm gonna go with the team. Very few
people believe in this season. The team a lot of
people think is not even going to win their own division,
much less win their conference. And that is the nobody
believes in US underdog Kansas City Chiefs to go over
eleven and a half wins. Listen, I know, listen, I
(04:36):
know they were there. They're unwatchable these days. It's you know,
they play a boring brand of football that there is.
You know, the league can only help them with so
many conspiracies. By the way, if we check back in
on the Rashi Rice isn't being suspended because God knows,
no one's gonna watch Chiefs Eagles in Week two if
(04:56):
Rashie Rice isn't there. That was a smart take. Friends.
I'll go with the Chiefs to hit their over like
they do literally every single year.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
Yeah, you you got me for a second. I did
start thinking about my strategy because the Chiefs would have
been and I did write them down in order of confidence.
They would have either been my second or third pick overall.
Like I am totally with you on they're over. They
have been a pick in this exercise previously, I believe
two or three years ago, maybe both a lot of times,
(05:26):
like the easiest ones are the best teams being most consistent.
Now I am at the point though it almost I
don't think it's a zag. But we just did our
award predictions with Jordan yesterday, and you know we both
had Mahomes for MVP. I do just feel like, you know,
we are going to get a much more entertaining, better
Chiefs offense, better Mahomes season. And they're eleven and a half?
(05:50):
What is there over under this year? And yeah, I
feel pretty good with their schedule right around thirteen, So
I'm with you.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
Yeah, I mean, they're the their schedule is hard every
year because they're in the super Bowl every year, and
they see they're also.
Speaker 1 (06:04):
On the AFC West. So let's calm down. It's fine. Fine,
what do you mean, it's like an average division? It's
it's fine. Something crazy.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
I agree with you on that actually, But but I
don't know if you've heard about Drew Brees two point
zero bo Nix. I mean I'm not sure save it
if okay, sorry, go ahead.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
Well no, you never know. I mean, if maybe we
could do a Broncos under in this pot, because yeah,
like we talked about, I'm I'm giving up the dream
of being undefeated for a fourth grade year because we're
going to make so many picks. Although I swear to god,
I made a long list last year and it was
it was freaking outrageous. Now I need to share it
with people because people think I was outrageous.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
No, no, no, people don't listen. I'll be honest. There are
people in the media that I think the audience looks
at and they're like, yeah, that guy is a liar.
You're not one of them. I don't think people think
you're out here making things up. Here's what I would say,
because I kind of pushed you for us to do more. Yes,
what if only the first five count for your historical record,
(07:09):
to give yourself a chance? Then then the Rester bonus pick.
Speaker 1 (07:12):
That seems confusing to me. Okay, that's fine, arm who's
your I think it's actually a good thing. It's like
Egish Fiantek this year. She was defending the French Open
for like the fourth or fifth time. The pressure was
so mention at this point she just had to lose
to get it out of the way, and then she
became Egashviiontek again. I don't need that sort of pressure.
I need a loss. I'm taking the Lions over ten
and a half as my first pick, and I know
(07:33):
the you know DVOA in the advanced analytics site. Look
at their schedule and look at some of the last season
and there's a reason that number is so low that
in general, the NFC North is loaded. The out of
division schedule is absolutely outrageous. Their road schedule is preposterous
because they're playing all the best teams in the league
on the road, the Chiefs, the Ravens, the Bengals, the Eagles,
(07:55):
the Rams. I mean, that's crazy to play that many
good teams on the way. I'm just not going to
go get too complicated here. To me, they are right
there at the very top of the NFL with the
Kansas City Chiefs and the Ravens and the Eagles. As
the best team. You give me ten and a half,
I think that division is a little overrated in terms
of the competition. I still think they're easily the most
(08:16):
talented and best coach team, and so I'm not gonna
think too hard. I'll go Lions over ten and a half.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
Oh okay, so that wouldn't have been one of my picks,
but that is because I did all thirty I did
on What's Right with Nick Wright get it wherever you
get your podcast, the I did twelve bets and then
but the other twenty teams, I still said which side
I was leaning on you know. So for the Lions,
they weren't one of my bets, but I did lean over.
(08:43):
Here is my only trepidation. You said they're going to
be really well coached. We hope we know that Dan
Campbell is like the head. They're going to be really
well coached. But are they gonna have good schematics? And
here is a take I've kind of been working on,
which is culture setting is wildly important for a bad
(09:07):
team that you're taking over, and once you graduate to contender,
schematics are more important, like because it's easier to have
a good culture when you're you know, playing meaningful games
all those things. So I think Dan Campbell is the
heartbeat of that team, but I also think they could
miss Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn. And then my only
(09:29):
if we look up and the Lions went seven and ten,
which again I do not think, is they have too
much talent. I don't thing's going to happen. But if
they are the team that's like, oh my god, what
happened to them? I think the only way that happens
is if the playoff game plus the loss of Ben
Johnson rattled golf who you guys have talked about on
(09:52):
quarterback Island, and you know about how consistent he is
at this point. I just think that that type of
catastrophic postseason performance coming on the heels of not a catastrophic,
but a devastating postseason loss, I would say there's a
ten percent chance that you know, golf is shaken because
(10:14):
of it. Again, I like your pick.
Speaker 1 (10:16):
I mean, why would it be shaken now? He's had
so many clunkers in big spots. It does happen. It's
why you know, I feel anxious about predicting them to
win the super Bowl, but ten and a half games,
the schematics take. I do like that one, Like does
he have a little Mike Tomlin in them who has
not done a good job? The difference is I think
man Campbell was so good at picking his coaching staff
(10:36):
and coaching up his coaching staff and developing them as
a coaching staff that I have faith in his coordinator
on defense, especially Calvin Shepherd who's been there, and I
just think that defense is going to be so much
better and that gives him them a lot of wig
over them. I am a little worried because they're just
talking about other playoffs only matter if we're a team
that you know, goes eleven and six or whatever. It's
(10:57):
okay if we have less wins as long as the
playoffs only matters. I do worry. I might have to
sweat this a little bit, but not not too much.
I just took it as the one pick. All right,
you're up. All right.
Speaker 2 (11:05):
This is a team that I think, going into December
will be alive to be the one seed in their conference,
and that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over nine and
a half. So I have two vary and we'll get
(11:26):
to the other one later whether you pick it or
I do, you know, kind of bullish or bearish predictions
that I am preparing that, you know, midway through October.
On first things first, the topic bar is going to say, Nick,
ready to admit you were wrong about dot dot dot
because I think that it is that a team that
(11:48):
I think is going to be mediocre is going to
start strong, and the Bucks I think are going to
be excellent. But I could see them starting media, you know,
starting average. But their final ten games for Tampa Bay
are at the Saints home for the Patriots. That's not
an easy one at the Bills obviously tough at the Rams,
(12:11):
than Cardinals, Saints, Falcons all in Tampa at the Panthers,
at the Dolphins, which at that point might be being
coached by interim head coach, and then home for the
Panthers to end the year. I think they could finish
super strong. I love Abuka they I thought it was
somewhat shocking that Worfs and Godwin are on the active roster,
(12:34):
even if it doesn't mean they're going to play Week one.
I like their opening three games as well, Falcons, Texans, Jets,
and I think that Baker Mayfield knows I am one
more awesome year away from being in the fifty five
million dollars a year club. I know that hurts your feelings, Greg,
which it shouldn't because he's part of the short king
(12:57):
club alongside you. I love that tall.
Speaker 1 (13:00):
If you're trying to put six foot tall people.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
Amongst his peers, I get it. He is is.
Speaker 1 (13:09):
He's not undersized for weirdly amongst my peers, like a Nebbish,
short looking Jewish guy is pretty average.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
So no, I was going to say, yeah, absolutely, like
you're like amongst your are you are taller compared to
your peers than than Baker is compared to his oddly,
but but I will take the Bucks Over nine and
a half with an absolute bullet.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
Yeah, I love it. I'm already regretting not watching your
shows on purpose because I did clock that, because I
could have strategized that was pretty high up there on
my list. Eric, our producer, and I kind of forgot
we did a first look at over Unders. I didn't
make any picks, but back in April when they came out,
just like we just you know, shot it around with
Nick Schuk and I went and checked what I said
(13:55):
on that, and the one thing I'd kind of forgotten
I said that then I was like, oh, yeah, that's right.
I should trust me for a instinct, was that Bucks
over nine and a half looked crazy to me? Because
I'm with you, I think they have a legitimate chance
to win the Super Bowl. I always look at line play,
like their defensive line I think is going to be
a lot better this year because of asan reddick, because
of the development of some of their younger guys, even
even on the edge that people don't know, like a
(14:16):
Chris braswell, And I just think their defense is going
to be better in general. And I love the consistency
on offense. So yeah, that's a little in the division.
In the division and it's nine and a half. I
thought they'd be ten and a half.
Speaker 2 (14:29):
There's two teams in that division that could have the
number one pick of the draft. Yeah, I don't you
know what I mean. I don't think the Panthers will
be quite that bad as sorry to Saints block party.
The Saints, I do think will be that bad. But yes, yes, yes,
And I'm producer Eric.
Speaker 1 (14:48):
By the way, I think has had a journey that
a lot of your fans, your listeners have gone through.
He's a Bills fan, so I think he had complicated
feelings about Nick right, But yeah, I think you've won
him over over time. You know that you know Ball
that he doesn't just hate you now he respects you
and hates you.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
Two things have happened with me and Bills fans. One
is I got a little credit with them because last year,
when everyone was way prematurely short selling them, I was like, Oh,
I think they're actually going to be really, really good.
Speaker 1 (15:21):
They were my number one overall pick in the over
underdraft last year.
Speaker 2 (15:24):
By the way, you and I were we talked about
it last year that people were I thought that people
had overrated the talent of the players on the previous
Bills teams who then left, which then made them underrate
the Bills because they thought they had lost more than
they had lost. So I think that helped. And the
other thing that helped is it's hard to be mad
(15:45):
at me for just being right every year, and so
like at some point they're like, you're a hater that
they're like, okay, but so yeah, and we had Dion
Dawkins on the show, and he seems to be He's
a delightful fellow. I like him a lot. I didn't
love that he kept calling me nicky. It felt like dismissive,
but I did enjoy the spot.
Speaker 1 (16:06):
But go ahead, he must be well like because he
got ranked in the top forty of the NFL Networks players.
And I was just like, man, his teammates, and I mean,
he's a good player, his teammates in the league, but
just like love that dude as a human too. Not
saying okay, let's go second pick. So I went back
and tracked and by the way, Bill, Yeah, Bill's overs
were two on my picks in the last couple of years.
(16:28):
I've really gotten at the top of the league in
the bottom of the league the last two years. Teams
I think are going to stink and teams I think
are going to be great. This is a team I
think is gonna stink, which is getting seven and a
half games. It is the Indianapolis Colt. Let's go under. No.
I thought about taking this first. Overall, I like my gut.
I try not to overthink these things, to be honest,
and I just was like, man, this team could absolutely stink.
(16:52):
You agree? Oh?
Speaker 2 (16:54):
Not only do I agree? I now have major fomo
because I was debate whether or not to take them
with my second pick. Yes, I think they could have
the number one pick of the draft.
Speaker 1 (17:06):
I think it's all the board.
Speaker 2 (17:08):
I think that. Uh. Part of that is just, in
my opinion, the football karma of how they handled Anthony
Richardson in the quarterback situation in Daniel Jones, and I
don't I just feel like they deserve a super down year.
Another part of it is like, is there a single
(17:28):
player on that offense? I love like Jonathan Taylor theoretically,
but you if we were to you know, rank running
backs one through whatever, Like I think Jonathan Taylor probably
shows up a little lower than you would initially think,
and I just I feel like they deserve some come up.
(17:50):
And for drafting a quarterback who never played in college
basically and everyone being like, listen, the guy can leap
tall buildings in a single bound and is fast than
the speed of light. We don't know if he can throw,
but hey, this unmolded clay and then fifteen games in
being like screw it, Daniel Jones like, I just hate
(18:13):
the process of that so much, and so I agree.
I agree with you wholeheartedly. And then division wise, without
again giving away, I think the AFC South could be
a little better than people expect this year. So you're
not like, that's really a does cam Ward you know,
(18:33):
make them viable adjacent question? And so because of all
those reasons, yeah, I love I love that pick for you.
It was jealous.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
It was partly like Shane Stiken's press conference and he's
clearly warring with his general manager, and I just was
watching it out and thinking, oh man, this is these
are the signs of a team that completely implodes. Everyone
knows that there about to get fired. They're not agreeing
(19:02):
from the top, like there's new ownership in theory with
Jim Merseys dot. It reminds me a lot of the
Panthers a couple of years ago in Bryce Young's rookie year,
who were getting like six and a half or seven
that people who were kind of up on them, And
just there's a lot here that I think is bigger
than football that I'm worried about. And then you look
at the football itself. You're placing a couple of guys
(19:23):
on the offensive line. You're hoping lou Ana Roumo, you know,
helps that defense. Shane Steiken has gotten this team to
win and the schedule is not bad, so that that
concerns me a little bit. But sometimes I think you
got to look, you know, beyond just the x's and
the o's and the guys on the team, because there
are good weapons around Daniel Jones. I kind of like
(19:43):
their skill position group overall. But to me, it's a
more you know, yeah, I think they have four wide receivers,
you like. I like Tyler Warren enough, like Jonathan Taylor
is a good like if you put a real quarterback
and a better situation, like I would like this team find,
but we were not in that world and I'm going under.
And you know what I love in the these exercises.
It's like I had the Giants last year and the Bears.
I love when, like you know, you already won by
(20:05):
week thirteen, they're stuck at two or three wins. Oh yeah,
I got that seven or eight, and I think they
are the most likely team that that is.
Speaker 2 (20:12):
Yeah, that's how that's most most years with the Chiefs
over you have a you have a clocked byes just
after Thanksgiving and you're mentioning a stike in Ballard potential,
you know, power struggle. So shame neither one of those
guys who's spent a bunch of years cultivating friends in
the media to have his back of that.
Speaker 1 (20:29):
That's a good call. Yeah, Chris Ballard has lasted. He
has the Jeff Fisher sort of memorial lasting a couple
of years extra just because he's he's well connected.
Speaker 2 (20:39):
All right, go ahead, all right, Well you've you know,
you've shaken up my draft board. I had a very
clear top three and one of them's been taken now,
so I am going to go with my third consecutive
over and it is a team in the same division
as one of my other over which typically you don't
(21:01):
want to do. But I feel that strongly about you
went from a bottom three coach to maybe top ten,
bottom three quarterback to top twelve. And that is the
Las Vegas Raiders, who I understand are going to have
some trouble defensively. However, if we know anything about Pete Carroll,
(21:26):
it is he will coach up your secondary. Max Crosby's awesome.
And is it on the board that the defense will
naturally be a bit better because they don't have the
energy sapped that a team has by having awful quarterback play.
You add to it that I love Jenty Bowers is great.
(21:49):
I don't have to preach the gospel of Geno to you.
And listen, I on my show, I picked the Raiders
to make the playoffs. Wow, I need seven wins for this.
I think the Raiders over is a very very healthy bet.
Speaker 1 (22:08):
Yeah. I think this is going to be your worst
take of the this. Wow, well not the over. That's fine.
Can they win seven games? I'm going to go against
it if we do a long enough list. And now
I don't need to take that pick anytime soon because
I know where you're going. But making the playoffs seems
crazy to me. I mean, I get it, best defensive
coach all that. I also like to pick what I'm
(22:30):
rooting for, and I am rooting for the Raiders this
year because of Gino, So I'm conflicted. But Pe Carol
wasn't a good defensive coach for like the last eight
years of his career in Seattle, and that roster stinks.
I mean it is. I think it is the worst
defensive roster in the NFL. I actually don't think it's close,
even though it has Max Crosby. They are thirty two,
thirty one thirty so that just seems like a lot
(22:52):
to overcome for me.
Speaker 2 (22:55):
So that's that's disappointing. I thought you might be with
me because you're like, you know so much.
Speaker 1 (23:00):
I do, and I'm rooting for it. So I'll be
conflicted when I take the under. Later, if we go
long enough, we'll see how many we get through. I'm
gonna go with one I know you're not taking. Maybe
I should be strategic. Then let's actually go one further
down the list and let's go Vikings over eight and
a half. Now, that was one of the things that
(23:20):
stuck with me all the way Sinceabril you look surprised.
Speaker 2 (23:24):
Oh, I am very surprised.
Speaker 1 (23:26):
I know they won. What did they win last year?
Speaker 2 (23:28):
Fourteen fourteen games and.
Speaker 1 (23:30):
The Bears won five, by the way, and they have
the exact same over under this year. I just think
people are just like, oh, how could we possibly recover
from losing Sam Donald? Just think of all the teams
that fell apart after they got rid of Sam Donald.
It's like, no, Sam Donald was not that important to
this team. The offensive scheme, the best wide receiver in
the NFL, the coach, they were what's important, and oh,
(23:54):
by the way, like the best defense in the NFL,
or maybe the most talented entering year three. I get
the schedules really tough, and I'm betting on two NFC
North teams here, which is, like you mentioned, a little
tricky to go over on both of them. But eight
and a half just felt like I would be really
surprised if this team had a losing record this year.
(24:15):
I really would. I like them better than the Packers.
I like them, you know, to win. I would put them.
If it was at nine and a half, I'd go
over that too. Here's my only question on the best
defense in football. Part of it so many turnovers last
year like.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
That is that that is the one piece of that
that is a little concerning, and the other pieces, obviously,
JJ McCarthy, with the limited experience in college we have,
You're right that we have seen Kevin O'Connell win with
Cousins and Donald and you know, and get the best
out of those guys. What we haven't seen Kevin O'Connell
(24:54):
do is win with inexperience, Like Donald's experience was bad,
but it was experience. Cousins had a bunch of experience
obviously when Kevin O'Connell got there, and so JJ not
playing a ton in college, being that young, and then
missing all of last year, that to me would be
a concern. Plus I'm probably higher on the Bears than
(25:16):
you are, leads to where I would it is hard
to go from fourteen wins to seven wins like that
is relatively speaking, pretty rare. But I wouldn't have gone
with the over so that you could have taken this
whenever you wanted it.
Speaker 1 (25:32):
Yeah, that's the thing. After doing these vats, everyone has
much different opinions. Anyways, it was surprising actually that we
had so much in common, at least with the Chiefs
and the Colts up at the top. But I feel
great about this. Dosmentella said, this is their master's level.
The year on the defense, year three, I think I
think they're going to be peaking. All right, you're up next.
Speaker 2 (25:53):
All right. This is one that I fear you might
have tipped your hand a bit when you the AFC West.
Isn't that good? This is one of my This goes
hand in hand with my Raiders over the Denver Broncos
are not winning ten games under nine and a half.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
I love this. It's pretty low on my list, so
I'm fine with you taking it and taking more of
the heat from the Broncos fans who are They're just
out there.
Speaker 2 (26:25):
Yeah, well, listen, be happy you live in one of
the most beautiful cities in the world. Be happy that
you get to watch Nikola Jokic play basketball. There's a
lot of things to be happy about that you live
in Denver, But this, I I could go quite some
(26:46):
time about the lunacy of how overvalued I find this
team to be. First of all, everyone is. Everyone sends
me these just glowing dissertation Sean Payton gives on bone knicks,
and all I do is I just google news timeline
(27:10):
this time seven years ago, six years ago, and five
years ago, when I was subjected to in the same
offseasons dissertations about how, hey, Steve Young, you know, he
reminds me a lot of Taysom Hill, Taysom like that.
And again, I don't think bo Nicks is Taysom Hill,
but I think he's closer to Taysom Hill than the
(27:31):
guy Sean Payton's trying to convince me he's close to,
which is Drew Brees. I also have never seen a
team that got went owen seven against the other AFC
good teams last year, unless we're including the Chiefs backups,
and then you can't even say they were peaking at
the end of the year. They played Buffalo and got
(27:53):
curb stumped. So Nick, how did they get to ten wins? Well,
let's go through it just quickly. And again, I think
the Brons defense should be really good. I am I
nervous about the injury concerns for the two big pieces
from San Francisco, of course, but the quarterbacks that this
Denver Broncos team beat last year after having a great
(28:15):
game against Baker were the following Aaron Rodgers Aidan O'Connell,
whoever the hell was starting for the Saints last year.
I don't it was a car He's not in football anymore, right,
br it was it Bright the Panthers quarterback in Week eight?
Speaker 1 (28:35):
Bryce Broncos was rattler. I think on a primetime game.
Speaker 2 (28:38):
Actual, Oh, the Saints Saints was rattler.
Speaker 1 (28:41):
That's right.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
It wasn't corner. That is correct, Kirk Cousins right before
they pulled the ripcord the Raiders again. I assume O'Connell
the Brown starting quarterback in Week thirteen last year. Let's
check and see who that stud was. It was jamis Uh,
the Cults quarterback in week fifteen. Is he a starter anymore? No?
(29:04):
I'm sorry. That was Anthony Richardson and then Chad Henny.
So you beat you beat two guys who are currently starters,
one of which is forty two now.
Speaker 1 (29:16):
And did you just say they played against Chad Henny?
Speaker 2 (29:19):
And everyone's like, all right, and I'm wrong. Chad Henny's
not the backup anymore? Is Carson Wentz? It was Carson Wentz.
I apologie like.
Speaker 1 (29:26):
I was, you know, I was. I was a lonely
man once on Chad Henney Island.
Speaker 2 (29:30):
Hey man, he had one of the greatest, one of
the great out of the Chief's history. Anything is possible
to scramble on third and sixteen against the Browns in
the playoffs, But and then I just the only thing
Sean Payton has enjoyed more than cultivating friends in the
media and talking up bo Nicks is reminding people how
(29:53):
close he was to drafting Patrick Mahomes and telling Seth
Wickersham about his his prietary algorithm of evaluating quarterbacks, which
is just completion percentage minus bad plays. And so color
me skeptical that the Broncos are a true contender. I
(30:14):
will go under.
Speaker 1 (30:16):
I love all that, and they were very you know,
I made a pretty long list. Broncos under nine and
a half was on it, though the Swords a bottom,
but it was on it. Yeah, part of it. Do
I have the guts because I do like looking at
offensive line plus defensive line and just like that. That's
where you find a lot of underrated teams. It's why
I'm gonna choose my next over I might as well
(30:38):
just say it's a Jets. It's just gonna be an
over going high. But that's a reason to like the Broncos,
by the way, is that, man, their lines really do
look pretty darn good. And that is Sean Payton's secret sauce,
I think more than his algorithm. That is so funny. Yeah,
I think he always has a good offensive line. He's
hired good offensive line coaches. They've just they've just found
(31:00):
a way to maximize that unit in a way very
few teams have. So that makes me worried. But I am.
I'm under on them too. I love that. All right,
let's go to the Jets. I've been saying it all
offseas I got to just like stick with what I
actually feel. I thought the craziest thing when the when
the totals still came when they came out was the
gap between the Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets. I just I
just don't get it, and I just think these teams
(31:22):
are all closer than you'd expect. I think the Jets
have a very good offensive line. I think they could
have a pretty good defensive line. I like the changes
in terms of Aaron Glenn becoming their head coach. I
think Robert Sala was a little overrated. I know the
defense played pretty well for him there but the talent
on defense is still there in five and a half
(31:44):
is so low in that division. You look at their schedule,
the AFC schedules out of the division is ideal, and
you get four games against Dolphins and the Patriots, which
I think are winnable at least, you know, split those
games for the Jets. I feel good about five and
a half. I think it's one of the it's one
of the dumbest things in sports. Is nothing harder to do,
(32:05):
you know, to win a game in the NFL. It's
it's actually not that hard to win about six games
in the NFL. You don't have to be that good.
You just need to get a good schedule and have,
you know, some good vibes in the building and some talent,
and they definitely have that. So I like the Jets
to go like seven and ten. I feel good about
over five and a halfs.
Speaker 2 (32:23):
So listen, here's what I like about the Jets chances
of just having a normal, fine below average year, which
is what you're describing. This is the first season that
players and coaches on the Jets have been able to
operate day to day with the media and then week
(32:46):
to week without every single thing being a referendum on
what about the quarterback? Because going from Donald to Zach
to Aaron, every body was just n PC and the
development of that guy's movie. And so I thought it
(33:08):
was really smart of Aaron Glenn to go, like, not
only move off Aaron, but to also pick as banal
a quarterback as you could find in fields like listen,
nobody's really going Nobody's like, oh man, is he the answer?
He's it's not about n there.
Speaker 1 (33:27):
Oh really, I don't really know that. But there are
fields fans out there there, yes.
Speaker 2 (33:32):
But still but but it's not everyone else can just
go about their business and it's like he's building the
team and then they'll address the quarterback, which is not
a good way to win a championship, but it might
be a good way to get things going. So I
I'm fine with that. I I don't even remember where
I had them. I also think the that it doesn't matter,
(33:55):
so I do think though. My only concern is I
do think that they're probably the last place team in
that division. But now some would say the Dolphins the
floor could fall out, which is fair. But yeah, I
don't mind the I don't mind over five and a
half like you.
Speaker 1 (34:14):
I can't do you know, actual bets like you. But
whatever their playoff odds are, like, I would like the
value on that. I don't think it's that crazy to
imagine them as like the seven team you just talked about,
you know, culture change. I think they're going to be
a little more like you think the Raiders are going
to be. Where just culture, which is really important. They
have a clear like person in charge. Usually it's ownership.
(34:35):
It gets messy. Douglas and Salah were they were kind
of feckless. Like this is Aaron Glenn's organization. I mean,
have you heard a word out of their GM? Do
you even know who it is? Darren Mujie who has
no presence whensoever either, And like it's clearly just a
Glenn higher and it's all about Aaron Glenn. And I'm
I'm kind of buying into the aeron I used to
just make them fun.
Speaker 2 (34:55):
Can I do an? I can we have a quick
sidebar conversation.
Speaker 1 (34:59):
I want to. I want to get to these picks,
but yes, just very quick.
Speaker 2 (35:03):
If the Jets do make the playoffs, I think that
would probably mean the Patriots don't. Yeah, And if the
Jets make the playoffs and the Patriots don't. I just
would like your great producer Eric to just cut together
a few of your kind of almost just throw in
(35:25):
asides over the summer about how obviously great Drake May is,
like it's not even worth discussing like I have, you know,
like the the and whether it was in your tiers list.
When you argue with Sando, it's like it's just I
think in a courtroom, if I were the other attorney,
(35:45):
I would say, objection your honor. Fact's not yet in evidence.
I like, and I like Drake May.
Speaker 1 (35:51):
I think that's fair. I had regrets, not regrets, but
second thoughts after we did that, Kiv tears. It was like,
am I putting the cart before the horse a little bit?
Andre me, Well, I mean, if.
Speaker 2 (36:01):
They if they've been as third in the division this year,
then I'm just saying we need to look at the
cart and the horse together, all right. My next one,
I'm gonna go with another under there's two I'm looking at,
and so I'm gonna be strategic on which one I
go with. I'm gonna go with one that I think
(36:22):
you could take the Niners under ten and a half.
Speaker 1 (36:27):
Hmmm.
Speaker 2 (36:29):
So I this will be from a talent perspective, the
worst defense they've had there since Shanahan first got there. Now,
I think Sala will do a nice job with you know,
taking over the coordinator spot. I don't doubt that in
the least. However, I aside from Bosa Warner, it's a
(36:53):
bunch of real question marks on the defensive side of
the ball. I the the injuries at wide receiver at
this point are almost cartoonish. And I now, some quarterbacks
can take a receiving corps of Sky Moore and Marquez
Valdez Scantling and win multiple Super Bowls, but rock Perty
(37:14):
is not one of them, and so that worries me.
Christian McCaffrey when he's out there is a top three
back in the league, but the win he's out there
part is concern. And like Trent Williams, they can't win
without Trent Williams. And Trent Williams backup signed with Kansas City,
so like that's you know, and he's the oldest tackle
(37:37):
in the league. All of that plus Kyle not so
subtly lowering the expectations for everyone, and all of that,
the fact I couldn't I'm stunned at this number, that
it's ten and a half, and what right? What everybody
argues is the schedule, And my counter to that is simple,
(38:01):
what if the Niners are a soft spot in some
other team schedule? And so I just the fact that
this team, in theory, could win the division, make the playoffs,
and the under still hit all take the under ten
and a half.
Speaker 1 (38:19):
Yeah, this is one. I don't know what happens for
you because you know you're on three hours a day
now and you got your YouTube show. So I mean,
first of all, you're doing the nicest thing possible. We're
not We've never even met in real life. This is
only the second time you says. But the nicest thing
you can do for a friend is you're giving me
more airtime and a day that you're doing little hours
and hours. But what happens when you just don't know,
(38:42):
you don't have a take. That's where I'm at with
this entire division, with the forty nine ers. I've gone
back and forth in my mind all division. If I
had to make one right now, I probably would go
with you and under, but it wouldn't it certainly wouldn't
make my top ten. And I won't pat myself on
the back or feel bad about anything that happens in
this division because I don't have a take. I really
(39:04):
don't don't. I don't know, I don't know. I don't
have a strong take on anything that could happen here.
You could tell me anything, I wouldn't be surprised.
Speaker 2 (39:11):
Yeah, that's how I kind of feel about the Cardinals
and Seahawks. Yes I do. I do feel strongly about
the Rams that if Stafford's healthy, they're gonna be excellent.
But if Stafford's healthy, part is such a you know, huge,
you know, dark cloud hanging over all.
Speaker 1 (39:28):
Right, I will I will go next. Got your nine ers,
You did not take one from me. I'm gonna go
Cowboys over seven and a half. You're you're you're reacting
like I took it from you, or that you think
it's a dumb pick. I love this pick. I could
have taken it even higher. They're they're in a division
(39:48):
where I think the commanders are overrated. That that's one
where I've seen enough of your social clips where I
know we're on different sides of things there, and so
I think the commanders are overrated Giants. We'll see I mean,
they're fine. And man, they have Dak Prescott on their team,
a quarterback that I absolutely trust, a lot of talent
on that offensive line that's young. I am buying the
(40:13):
propaganda that Brian Schottenheimer will be a better head coach
than he was a coordinator. He's got a little bit
of his dad. I think he's got that organization in
terms of his coaching staff and the players kind of
tuning out the noise as well as he as anyone
possibly could. And ultimately, I think they still have the
bones of a team that won twelve games, you know,
three years in a row with a pretty mediocre head coach.
(40:36):
I love their defensive line. I mean, I think it
could be the best edge group in the league. Assuming
Michaeh Parsons is going to be on the team. And
I am assuming that. I know you talk about it
every day and stuff, but it just history tells us
he will be on that team. It would be a
blow to my pick if he's not on the team.
But it's not eight and a half. It's at seven
and a half, and I feel great. I think they're
(40:57):
gonna win ten games. I have them in the playoffs
like the Cowboys, this year. Wow, probably should have taken
them earlier. To be honest, No, I think.
Speaker 2 (41:04):
You didn't need to because I was gonna go under.
Speaker 1 (41:07):
Go for now, have a challenge you could take.
Speaker 2 (41:09):
Well, here's the problem we are. We're I'm working off
Can I say the sports book that I got my numbers? Yes, okay,
we have I don't know, and the I'm working off
the DraftKings numbers. And so the Draft Kings total was
at eight and a half with a lot of juice
on the under, so you know what I mean. So
(41:30):
that's why you st Yes, the real back in the day,
some win totals landed on even numbers, you know what
I mean. It was so the real Cowboys total, if
it was ten years ago, would have been set at eight.
Speaker 1 (41:44):
If you wanna, if you wanna step up here, make
it eight and we go on different sides. It's just
a fun little challenge here. I'm good with that.
Speaker 2 (41:53):
Yeah, sure deal, that's fine, right, Yeah, So that it's
so no action if they go eight and nine. I
kind of screwed you if they go eight nine, because
you would already land grabbed the seven and a half. No,
I think this could be a year from hell. For them.
I I'm very your I respect your football opinion so
(42:14):
much that your opinion of their D line is making
me reconsider my opinion of their D line because I
look at the Cowboys as a team that with with
Micah Parsons should have an okay defense, and without Micah
Parsons might be one of the worst defenses in football. Now,
it sounds like you feel very differently than me about that.
(42:37):
And I also think the I think Micah going to
get this second opinion on his back is uh not
so subtle shot across the bow of we will miss games. Yeah,
I agree, and so there's that. I also, I just
don't see how they Dak's going to have to have
(43:03):
a phenomenal season for them to win, and I don't
know it. Like George Pickens is to me, I put
him in the kind of the bucket of player, which
is in leads my He's one of the reasons that
in professional football, more than any other sport, I believe
(43:24):
talent can be wildly overrated. Like I hear so much
the guy's got so much talent, Like football is too
hard and too brutal and too many other things that
if talent's the only thing you can lead with that
I don't necessarily trust you, And so the Schottenheimer piece
(43:45):
concerns me. I just never like the Hey, if you
didn't get that job, who else was going to give
it to you? In the answer to shoot nobody, Like
I gotta tell you I had that always.
Speaker 1 (43:58):
The Cowboys though, they're just they're just different. But what
they're they're not in general is consistently bad. I mean,
certainly in the dak or Tony Romo era, like give
me the back to back lousy years out of the Cowboys,
I hear all that. I think they are among the
highest variance defenses in the league. I'm counting a lot
on Matt Eberflus to like get that system and kind
(44:20):
of put a top over it. By you know, I
think it might be ugly early. They have a couple
really talented cornerbacks and Travon Diggs and Chevon Ravel like that.
We just don't know. Injury wise, they will be run on.
Like in the interior, it does not look good. But
that edge group, if if you just go through it.
Sam Williams is really talented coming off in a cl
mar marshawn neland Dante Fowler, Michah Parsons, Donovanezeraku five deep.
(44:43):
That's as good as it. That's he was good last year.
He was literally the Commander's probably second best passer. I'm
just saying he's like a rotational guy. Okay that I
don't know if that counts as one of your Yeah.
Speaker 2 (44:55):
You did Cowboys over I did Cowboys.
Speaker 1 (44:57):
So then I'm back. The one thing I'm rooting for
now more than anything is the Cowboys not to land
on eight. That'll just bother me so much. If you
win because of that.
Speaker 2 (45:06):
No, I won't win because of that.
Speaker 1 (45:07):
It'd be a push, sure, but I mean, like the
overall competition between okas, if somehow that push makes a difference,
I'll vote Commanders under nine and a half. I'm not
being strategic. Also, we only have like ten minutes left,
so I should get the ones out that I want
because I know you like the Commanders a lot this year.
I think there's a lot of ways that this could
go really wrong. Obviously, it's tough to bet against such
(45:30):
a or pick because I don't bet against a quarterback
this good in Jaden Daniels, but it is going to
be his second year in the league, so it's not
the longest track record of success a unique offense, and
I just think the defense could be really poor, the
skill position depth very poor, and I think there's just
a lot of ways it could go wrong and they
could be a losing team.
Speaker 2 (45:51):
So I'm probably not quite as high on the Commanders
as you think. I'm sure what you saw.
Speaker 1 (45:55):
Well, I saw you had them ahead of the Eagles.
Speaker 2 (45:57):
Well, so, yeah, So I had the Commanders and the
Eagles both eleven and six. And if the in my
make believe standings in my predictions, am I going to
actually figure out who would win the make believe tiebreaker?
Or does tie go to more interesting? It went to
more if I have him both eleven and six and
Eagles fans hate me already, might as well be like,
and you know what, when I've crunched the numbers, the
(46:19):
Commander's baith on strength of scheduled tiebreaker or they're gonna
win the division. And so my I have a bias
against skinny football players, particularly the quarterback position. And because
of that, I was a Jaden skeptic, and he.
Speaker 1 (46:36):
Was like very wrong on Lamar, you know the.
Speaker 2 (46:40):
I mean, I've been the most right person in sports
media about Lamar Jackson in one day, people will admit it.
And there's nothing wrong with being Aaron Judge man, all
time great, get a statue one day, there's nothing wrong
with it. Uh and the and Lamar's not skinny. You've
seen Lamar's neck. It goes past his ears. I was
(47:00):
worried about Jaden's ability to stay healthy, and last year
I got to admit when he got obviously injuries. The
worst thing you can do in sports takery is be like,
I think the guy's super talented, but I'm worried he
won't stay healthy because it's it's a bummer of a take,
(47:20):
and if you are correct, you don't get to like
be like told you like, there's never like a moment,
keep it in your pocket. And but he did get
hit last year. He did get the bruised ribs and
it didn't matter like he had the brief moment where
his play dipped a bit. He is super talented, and
(47:41):
I love how they added to the offensive line, and
I think that they're patchworking the defense. So I do
like the commanders. I'm not a commander's going to the
super Bowl guy, but I wouldn't have gone under all right,
I'm gonna go. It's my turnout. I know.
Speaker 1 (47:59):
I'm actually surprised went with that so high. That was
a spiteful just to get a saucy pick in there.
Go ahead, let's let's go, We'll get.
Speaker 2 (48:06):
This is my uh, this is the last year I
can ride with this guy in this team if they don't,
if he doesn't come through for me, and I'm going
with the Prince that was promised and the Jaguars over
seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (48:24):
This kills me. This, This shows I shouldn't have taken
Cowboys or commuted, because in my heart I believe that
more than the picks I've already done. WI it was
lower on the list. I'm looking at the stupid list.
I'm with you.
Speaker 2 (48:36):
It's terrible move by you. Listen, man, I still believe
in Trevor Lawrence. But man, he's got a validated and
I don't like when people say he never has, like
it's all based on college year two for him. He
was good. The following year they started eight and three,
(48:56):
and then he got maimed in that Monday night football game.
They didn't have a cart to take him off the field.
And poor guy hasn't been the same ever since. Hopefully
he is this year. You are, I think correctly super
high on Travis Hunter. I think for Trevor's case, it's
really nice that he seems to be they're gonna lean
more offense than defense with him. Brian Thomas Junior is excellent,
(49:20):
and it seemed like they were just done with the
Doug Peterson experience, and so I think that we talked
about how the Colts and the weakness there. I think
in that division, could they win it? Sure would I
be I'd be devastated if they don't get to eight wins.
(49:41):
I think they can get to ten. So I will
go over Jacksonville.
Speaker 1 (49:46):
I love that sometimes you don't really know what your
heart truly feels until you're just like doing these shows.
And truly I think I would have the Jaguars in
my top five or so I'm in on this.
Speaker 2 (49:56):
So I got one of your best bets and you
got one of mine. Yeah, because you've got Colts under
and I got jackson And.
Speaker 1 (50:02):
With that in mind, I'm going against what I had
written down and I'm taking Saints under five and a
half before anyone else does, just in case I just
feel like, man if they got to five wins, I
would say, bravo, Kellen Moore. I just good job. I
just think this team stinks. I think they could be
two and fifteen. I went to camp and I was
(50:22):
actually like, man, their defense is kind of spicy, and
isn't that what you're You're so surprised by that?
Speaker 2 (50:28):
No, well, I just I just think soft spot in
your heart for Louisiana and for New Orleans.
Speaker 1 (50:35):
And here's the thing though, Saints fans, they don't want this,
but they kind of want this. So I think if
they get along the journey, I won't even feel bad
rudy against them because hashtag arch my back. They want
the scenario where they're just they're getting in position for
Archie Manning, who you know they believe will only come
(50:56):
out in the draft if the Saints have the one pick,
which is probably wishful thinking and stupid, but.
Speaker 2 (51:02):
Yeah, I would say, I would say, is it not
on the board that the opposite's true? The only way
he doesn't come out, I'm gonna go Bengals under nine
and a half bolt on.
Speaker 1 (51:14):
My very long list. I agree, but wouldn't have been
something I would have picked.
Speaker 2 (51:18):
I just I don't understand why it's going to be
different than last year, and the answer can be, well,
the defense won't be quite as bad and the offense
probably won't be quite as good. I think the Bengals
offensive line is one of the more underdiscussed big question
marks of the season. I think that the defense is.
(51:42):
I listen as a Chiefs fan, I'm glad they got
rid of Louis and Arumo. Like he I understand that
he struggled there last year. He sure seemed in the
playoffs to give Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen trouble. Which
if I'm the Bengals, that's actually all I want for
my decoordinator. You can do what the Bills do, which
is have a defensive coordinators that are unbelievable throughout the
(52:05):
regular season and then can't stop a good quarterback in
the playoffs or with the Bengals head which is the opposite.
And so I also fundamentally disagree with how they have
decided to build this team, and I think that they
are I think that we are staring at a again.
(52:28):
I understand he's arguably the greatest coach of all time,
but so not to disrespect Sean Payton's tenure with the Saints,
but a similar run of when they breeze had three
consecutive years where he averaged five thousand yards passing and
they went seven to nine every single year. And I
think that unlike Sean, I don't think Zach Taylor survives it.
(52:51):
I think they missed the playoffs again, and I think
Zach Taylor's fired.
Speaker 1 (52:55):
Yeah, I'm torn on this one, but ultimately I agree.
It's not that different than my colts pick larger than
just the players involved. It's the organization, it's the structure
of it all that just that's gonna sink them. Ultimately,
I agree. All right, I want to have an odd number.
We can't. We can't be tied. So let's go. I'll
do two more, you go one more, and then that'll
(53:16):
put us at nine inch.
Speaker 2 (53:18):
Can I just ask a quick question? Yeah, I know
that math is not a strong suit of this show.
How on earth does whether we each have eight, nine
or ten impact whether or not we tie?
Speaker 1 (53:33):
Well, because if we each that's not how I'm an idiot.
Speaker 2 (53:37):
Well you know, why don't we both?
Speaker 1 (53:42):
I was thinking you're going against each other. We got
a lot of shows, you know. I get a lot
of shows.
Speaker 2 (53:51):
Listen, man, why don't you do an eighth and then
we will have done sixteen.
Speaker 1 (53:56):
That's happened. That's that's perfect.
Speaker 2 (54:00):
Man.
Speaker 1 (54:00):
This is tough, and I'll just give some freebies to
the people out there. The ones I'm considering. The Dolphins
under eight and a half feels like it's too obvious
for everyone, and yet I do like it. The Giants
over five and a half takes the little guts, but
I do believe in it. I think they're going to
be better than people think. The Ravens over eleven and
a half doesn't take a lot of guts, but I
(54:21):
do think they'll they'll get there. But I think, just
for consistency all three years on these over unders, I
have taken the Bears under and you know, and this
is only going you know, we only had three or
four picks each year, and they were my first pick,
I think, or like last year.
Speaker 2 (54:39):
Last year, you were correct. I know nobody was more
every year I've been correct.
Speaker 1 (54:43):
They've been under every year.
Speaker 2 (54:44):
Nobody was more wrong about the Bears in the national
media than me last year, and you were about as
right as anybody.
Speaker 1 (54:51):
So ty Ty, and you said in your case Ty
goes to, what's the sauce of your pick? To me?
The Bear just consistency for the sake of the show,
going Bears under for the fourth straight year, even though
I do think they will be better eight and a
half in that division where I like the Vikings and
the Lions quite a bit. I think he'll have done
a fine job, Ben Johnson. If they win seven or
eight games. They're not as talented. I don't think as
(55:14):
people think, certainly on defense, and so I'll go under Bears.
Speaker 2 (55:17):
Okay, that's perfect. I would have got over, So that's perfect.
We did it.
Speaker 1 (55:22):
The only man who could just slide in an amazing
joke about you know, the forty nine Ers aren't the
type of team that could win with sky Moore and
mvs at wide receiver and just just keep on going
like I hope that was off the dome. One of
the most talented guys in the business. Nick Right.
Speaker 2 (55:40):
Appreciate you, Thank you so much. Appreciate it. Loved the show.
The only thing I don't like about coming on it
is it takes now tomorrow. I got nothing to listen to.
See you later.
Speaker 1 (55:49):
Greg, Thanks all right, we will see you. Nick Wright
and saying goodbye as we hit the music and tell
you a little bit about what's coming up later this
week Forties and free Agents and FRI You'll be in
your feed. Patrick Jordan and I will be over the
weekend Our Reasons for Joy in twenty twenty five, and
then a couple of season preview episodes with Daniel Jeremiah.
(56:09):
Then we are on to our Week one schedule. The
over Unders are out. Football is back.
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we've just been killing time
since our last over under win Totals draft. I'm Greg
Rosenthal and I am so excited to be joined this
year by my number one pick for this show. It's
Nick Right. You know them, hopefully you love them. They've
expanded First Things First to an extra hour. It's three
(00:26):
to six every day Eastern. He also has a great
show on YouTube, What's Right with Nick? Right? Nick, you
talk so much openly about your maybe irresponsible gambling that
you just felt like the right man for this show.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Yeah, listen, everyone should gamble responsibly, but that is a
do as I say, not as I do, edict. And yeah,
this is the best time of year, and thank you
for it. Is a true pleasure to be on my
favorite daily podcast. That is not an exaggeration, that is true.
It has helped. It is the best way for me
(01:02):
to keep up with everything that's happening in the NFL
during the off season. And if I may shout out
Jordan Rodrieg, who I've never met, never spoken with, who
I think just does an awesome job. I also feel
like I know Nick Shook really well from the pods,
and I know there's a whole cast of characters and
everybody does a great job. But I really appreciate you
(01:23):
having me on. And now I get is are there
stakes on this? Like? How do we determine winners? Is there?
Because there I wanted.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
For the NFL, which has saved me a lot of
you know, drama internally. But I think we can. I
think we can figure out something that could make it fun.
That's that's just something.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
We could just be podcasts related like the winner, like
the the winner has to have the other guys podcast
logo in the background for an episode or something perfect.
I don't you know what I mean that feels because
I feel confident.
Speaker 1 (01:57):
I've honked about it too much. But I'm gonna three
year heater with this show. You know, we did it
back in the around the NFL days. We've only done
three to four picks every year, so it's it's just
ten picks over the last three years. So I'm ten
and oh over the last three years doing this show.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
Wait, you're hold on, You have eleven and one. You
haven't missed one.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
Haven't missed a single? One three and oh four O
four O. Now I'm good. That streak's probably ending today
because we were talking and I agree, it's just the
two of us. It's been three or four in the past.
I think it'd be fun to get to more shows.
And actually, if you check out What's right with Nick, right,
he's going through each and every team. But I've I've
avoided that. That's already up on his show.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
So I was worried about that. I was avoiding to
front where you're going to get to know my my process?
Can I ask a rule here?
Speaker 1 (02:46):
Yes? All right?
Speaker 2 (02:48):
If you take a team, yes, is that team is
Let's say you had the I'm just going to pick
a random one. Let's say you had the Eagles and
you had them over eleven and a half. Do I
have the ability to take the under on that scene? Okay,
so teams get the only thing can't happen. I can't
have the exact same bet. But teams are eligible. Yes,
(03:11):
that is exact strategy.
Speaker 1 (03:13):
Yeah, to to put your stake down and say what
are your favorite picks and what we can't double up
on them? So it's a draft back and forth and yeah,
we're we're using the over underwind totals that are like
the most common. I think we took this one off
of ESPNS. We don't we don't, we don't have a
sponsor right now for picks, but hey, ESPN just bought us,
(03:34):
so why not nick I, because you know I do
wanted to just come to this fresh. I didn't look
at your picks, although I held back giving away one
of mine the other show just in case you were
listening out of strategy. But I will give you the
first pick, and I kind of have a feeling where
you're going.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
So here's the thing. You you think you know where
I'm going. You think that, and you're draft strategy has
probably been based a bit around that. You you really
have the first pick because you know where I'm going
to use my first pick. It's a little princess bride.
He knows that, I know that, he knows that I
know situation. So I'm gonna throw you a curveball and
(04:15):
not go with the team you think I'm going to
go with. I'm gonna go with the team. Very few
people believe in this season. The team a lot of
people think is not even going to win their own division,
much less win their conference. And that is the nobody
believes in US underdog Kansas City Chiefs to go over
eleven and a half wins. Listen, I know, listen, I
(04:36):
know they were there. They're unwatchable these days. It's you know,
they play a boring brand of football that there is.
You know, the league can only help them with so
many conspiracies. By the way, if we check back in
on the Rashi Rice isn't being suspended because God knows,
no one's gonna watch Chiefs Eagles in Week two if
(04:56):
Rashie Rice isn't there. That was a smart take. Friends.
I'll go with the Chiefs to hit their over like
they do literally every single year.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
Yeah, you you got me for a second. I did
start thinking about my strategy because the Chiefs would have
been and I did write them down in order of confidence.
They would have either been my second or third pick overall.
Like I am totally with you on they're over. They
have been a pick in this exercise previously, I believe
two or three years ago, maybe both a lot of times,
(05:26):
like the easiest ones are the best teams being most consistent.
Now I am at the point though it almost I
don't think it's a zag. But we just did our
award predictions with Jordan yesterday, and you know we both
had Mahomes for MVP. I do just feel like, you know,
we are going to get a much more entertaining, better
Chiefs offense, better Mahomes season. And they're eleven and a half?
(05:50):
What is there over under this year? And yeah, I
feel pretty good with their schedule right around thirteen, So
I'm with you.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
Yeah, I mean, they're the their schedule is hard every
year because they're in the super Bowl every year, and
they see they're also.
Speaker 1 (06:04):
On the AFC West. So let's calm down. It's fine. Fine,
what do you mean, it's like an average division? It's
it's fine. Something crazy.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
I agree with you on that actually, But but I
don't know if you've heard about Drew Brees two point
zero bo Nix. I mean I'm not sure save it
if okay, sorry, go ahead.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
Well no, you never know. I mean, if maybe we
could do a Broncos under in this pot, because yeah,
like we talked about, I'm I'm giving up the dream
of being undefeated for a fourth grade year because we're
going to make so many picks. Although I swear to god,
I made a long list last year and it was
it was freaking outrageous. Now I need to share it
with people because people think I was outrageous.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
No, no, no, people don't listen. I'll be honest. There are
people in the media that I think the audience looks
at and they're like, yeah, that guy is a liar.
You're not one of them. I don't think people think
you're out here making things up. Here's what I would say,
because I kind of pushed you for us to do more. Yes,
what if only the first five count for your historical record,
(07:09):
to give yourself a chance? Then then the Rester bonus pick.
Speaker 1 (07:12):
That seems confusing to me. Okay, that's fine, arm who's
your I think it's actually a good thing. It's like
Egish Fiantek this year. She was defending the French Open
for like the fourth or fifth time. The pressure was
so mention at this point she just had to lose
to get it out of the way, and then she
became Egashviiontek again. I don't need that sort of pressure.
I need a loss. I'm taking the Lions over ten
and a half as my first pick, and I know
(07:33):
the you know DVOA in the advanced analytics site. Look
at their schedule and look at some of the last season
and there's a reason that number is so low that
in general, the NFC North is loaded. The out of
division schedule is absolutely outrageous. Their road schedule is preposterous
because they're playing all the best teams in the league
on the road, the Chiefs, the Ravens, the Bengals, the Eagles,
(07:55):
the Rams. I mean, that's crazy to play that many
good teams on the way. I'm just not going to
go get too complicated here. To me, they are right
there at the very top of the NFL with the
Kansas City Chiefs and the Ravens and the Eagles. As
the best team. You give me ten and a half,
I think that division is a little overrated in terms
of the competition. I still think they're easily the most
(08:16):
talented and best coach team, and so I'm not gonna
think too hard. I'll go Lions over ten and a half.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
Oh okay, so that wouldn't have been one of my picks,
but that is because I did all thirty I did
on What's Right with Nick Wright get it wherever you
get your podcast, the I did twelve bets and then
but the other twenty teams, I still said which side
I was leaning on you know. So for the Lions,
they weren't one of my bets, but I did lean over.
(08:43):
Here is my only trepidation. You said they're going to
be really well coached. We hope we know that Dan
Campbell is like the head. They're going to be really
well coached. But are they gonna have good schematics? And
here is a take I've kind of been working on,
which is culture setting is wildly important for a bad
(09:07):
team that you're taking over, and once you graduate to contender,
schematics are more important, like because it's easier to have
a good culture when you're you know, playing meaningful games
all those things. So I think Dan Campbell is the
heartbeat of that team, but I also think they could
miss Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn. And then my only
(09:29):
if we look up and the Lions went seven and ten,
which again I do not think, is they have too
much talent. I don't thing's going to happen. But if
they are the team that's like, oh my god, what
happened to them? I think the only way that happens
is if the playoff game plus the loss of Ben
Johnson rattled golf who you guys have talked about on
(09:52):
quarterback Island, and you know about how consistent he is
at this point. I just think that that type of
catastrophic postseason performance coming on the heels of not a catastrophic,
but a devastating postseason loss, I would say there's a
ten percent chance that you know, golf is shaken because
(10:14):
of it. Again, I like your pick.
Speaker 1 (10:16):
I mean, why would it be shaken now? He's had
so many clunkers in big spots. It does happen. It's
why you know, I feel anxious about predicting them to
win the super Bowl, but ten and a half games,
the schematics take. I do like that one, Like does
he have a little Mike Tomlin in them who has
not done a good job? The difference is I think
man Campbell was so good at picking his coaching staff
(10:36):
and coaching up his coaching staff and developing them as
a coaching staff that I have faith in his coordinator
on defense, especially Calvin Shepherd who's been there, and I
just think that defense is going to be so much
better and that gives him them a lot of wig
over them. I am a little worried because they're just
talking about other playoffs only matter if we're a team
that you know, goes eleven and six or whatever. It's
(10:57):
okay if we have less wins as long as the
playoffs only matters. I do worry. I might have to
sweat this a little bit, but not not too much.
I just took it as the one pick. All right,
you're up. All right.
Speaker 2 (11:05):
This is a team that I think, going into December
will be alive to be the one seed in their conference,
and that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over nine and
a half. So I have two vary and we'll get
(11:26):
to the other one later whether you pick it or
I do, you know, kind of bullish or bearish predictions
that I am preparing that, you know, midway through October.
On first things first, the topic bar is going to say, Nick,
ready to admit you were wrong about dot dot dot
because I think that it is that a team that
(11:48):
I think is going to be mediocre is going to
start strong, and the Bucks I think are going to
be excellent. But I could see them starting media, you know,
starting average. But their final ten games for Tampa Bay
are at the Saints home for the Patriots. That's not
an easy one at the Bills obviously tough at the Rams,
(12:11):
than Cardinals, Saints, Falcons all in Tampa at the Panthers,
at the Dolphins, which at that point might be being
coached by interim head coach, and then home for the
Panthers to end the year. I think they could finish
super strong. I love Abuka they I thought it was
somewhat shocking that Worfs and Godwin are on the active roster,
(12:34):
even if it doesn't mean they're going to play Week one.
I like their opening three games as well, Falcons, Texans, Jets,
and I think that Baker Mayfield knows I am one
more awesome year away from being in the fifty five
million dollars a year club. I know that hurts your feelings, Greg,
which it shouldn't because he's part of the short king
(12:57):
club alongside you. I love that tall.
Speaker 1 (13:00):
If you're trying to put six foot tall people.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
Amongst his peers, I get it. He is is.
Speaker 1 (13:09):
He's not undersized for weirdly amongst my peers, like a Nebbish,
short looking Jewish guy is pretty average.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
So no, I was going to say, yeah, absolutely, like
you're like amongst your are you are taller compared to
your peers than than Baker is compared to his oddly,
but but I will take the Bucks Over nine and
a half with an absolute bullet.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
Yeah, I love it. I'm already regretting not watching your
shows on purpose because I did clock that, because I
could have strategized that was pretty high up there on
my list. Eric, our producer, and I kind of forgot
we did a first look at over Unders. I didn't
make any picks, but back in April when they came out,
just like we just you know, shot it around with
Nick Schuk and I went and checked what I said
(13:55):
on that, and the one thing I'd kind of forgotten
I said that then I was like, oh, yeah, that's right.
I should trust me for a instinct, was that Bucks
over nine and a half looked crazy to me? Because
I'm with you, I think they have a legitimate chance
to win the Super Bowl. I always look at line play,
like their defensive line I think is going to be
a lot better this year because of asan reddick, because
of the development of some of their younger guys, even
even on the edge that people don't know, like a
(14:16):
Chris braswell, And I just think their defense is going
to be better in general. And I love the consistency
on offense. So yeah, that's a little in the division.
In the division and it's nine and a half. I
thought they'd be ten and a half.
Speaker 2 (14:29):
There's two teams in that division that could have the
number one pick of the draft. Yeah, I don't you
know what I mean. I don't think the Panthers will
be quite that bad as sorry to Saints block party.
The Saints, I do think will be that bad. But yes, yes, yes,
And I'm producer Eric.
Speaker 1 (14:48):
By the way, I think has had a journey that
a lot of your fans, your listeners have gone through.
He's a Bills fan, so I think he had complicated
feelings about Nick right, But yeah, I think you've won
him over over time. You know that you know Ball
that he doesn't just hate you now he respects you
and hates you.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
Two things have happened with me and Bills fans. One
is I got a little credit with them because last year,
when everyone was way prematurely short selling them, I was like, Oh,
I think they're actually going to be really, really good.
Speaker 1 (15:21):
They were my number one overall pick in the over
underdraft last year.
Speaker 2 (15:24):
By the way, you and I were we talked about
it last year that people were I thought that people
had overrated the talent of the players on the previous
Bills teams who then left, which then made them underrate
the Bills because they thought they had lost more than
they had lost. So I think that helped. And the
other thing that helped is it's hard to be mad
(15:45):
at me for just being right every year, and so
like at some point they're like, you're a hater that
they're like, okay, but so yeah, and we had Dion
Dawkins on the show, and he seems to be He's
a delightful fellow. I like him a lot. I didn't
love that he kept calling me nicky. It felt like dismissive,
but I did enjoy the spot.
Speaker 1 (16:06):
But go ahead, he must be well like because he
got ranked in the top forty of the NFL Networks players.
And I was just like, man, his teammates, and I mean,
he's a good player, his teammates in the league, but
just like love that dude as a human too. Not
saying okay, let's go second pick. So I went back
and tracked and by the way, Bill, Yeah, Bill's overs
were two on my picks in the last couple of years.
(16:28):
I've really gotten at the top of the league in
the bottom of the league the last two years. Teams
I think are going to stink and teams I think
are going to be great. This is a team I
think is gonna stink, which is getting seven and a
half games. It is the Indianapolis Colt. Let's go under. No.
I thought about taking this first. Overall, I like my gut.
I try not to overthink these things, to be honest,
and I just was like, man, this team could absolutely stink.
(16:52):
You agree? Oh?
Speaker 2 (16:54):
Not only do I agree? I now have major fomo
because I was debate whether or not to take them
with my second pick. Yes, I think they could have
the number one pick of the draft.
Speaker 1 (17:06):
I think it's all the board.
Speaker 2 (17:08):
I think that. Uh. Part of that is just, in
my opinion, the football karma of how they handled Anthony
Richardson in the quarterback situation in Daniel Jones, and I
don't I just feel like they deserve a super down year.
Another part of it is like, is there a single
(17:28):
player on that offense? I love like Jonathan Taylor theoretically,
but you if we were to you know, rank running
backs one through whatever, Like I think Jonathan Taylor probably
shows up a little lower than you would initially think,
and I just I feel like they deserve some come up.
(17:50):
And for drafting a quarterback who never played in college
basically and everyone being like, listen, the guy can leap
tall buildings in a single bound and is fast than
the speed of light. We don't know if he can throw,
but hey, this unmolded clay and then fifteen games in
being like screw it, Daniel Jones like, I just hate
(18:13):
the process of that so much, and so I agree.
I agree with you wholeheartedly. And then division wise, without
again giving away, I think the AFC South could be
a little better than people expect this year. So you're
not like, that's really a does cam Ward you know,
(18:33):
make them viable adjacent question? And so because of all
those reasons, yeah, I love I love that pick for you.
It was jealous.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
It was partly like Shane Stiken's press conference and he's
clearly warring with his general manager, and I just was
watching it out and thinking, oh man, this is these
are the signs of a team that completely implodes. Everyone
knows that there about to get fired. They're not agreeing
(19:02):
from the top, like there's new ownership in theory with
Jim Merseys dot. It reminds me a lot of the
Panthers a couple of years ago in Bryce Young's rookie year,
who were getting like six and a half or seven
that people who were kind of up on them, And
just there's a lot here that I think is bigger
than football that I'm worried about. And then you look
at the football itself. You're placing a couple of guys
(19:23):
on the offensive line. You're hoping lou Ana Roumo, you know,
helps that defense. Shane Steiken has gotten this team to
win and the schedule is not bad, so that that
concerns me a little bit. But sometimes I think you
got to look, you know, beyond just the x's and
the o's and the guys on the team, because there
are good weapons around Daniel Jones. I kind of like
(19:43):
their skill position group overall. But to me, it's a
more you know, yeah, I think they have four wide receivers,
you like. I like Tyler Warren enough, like Jonathan Taylor
is a good like if you put a real quarterback
and a better situation, like I would like this team find,
but we were not in that world and I'm going under.
And you know what I love in the these exercises.
It's like I had the Giants last year and the Bears.
I love when, like you know, you already won by
(20:05):
week thirteen, they're stuck at two or three wins. Oh yeah,
I got that seven or eight, and I think they
are the most likely team that that is.
Speaker 2 (20:12):
Yeah, that's how that's most most years with the Chiefs
over you have a you have a clocked byes just
after Thanksgiving and you're mentioning a stike in Ballard potential,
you know, power struggle. So shame neither one of those
guys who's spent a bunch of years cultivating friends in
the media to have his back of that.
Speaker 1 (20:29):
That's a good call. Yeah, Chris Ballard has lasted. He
has the Jeff Fisher sort of memorial lasting a couple
of years extra just because he's he's well connected.
Speaker 2 (20:39):
All right, go ahead, all right, Well you've you know,
you've shaken up my draft board. I had a very
clear top three and one of them's been taken now,
so I am going to go with my third consecutive
over and it is a team in the same division
as one of my other over which typically you don't
(21:01):
want to do. But I feel that strongly about you
went from a bottom three coach to maybe top ten,
bottom three quarterback to top twelve. And that is the
Las Vegas Raiders, who I understand are going to have
some trouble defensively. However, if we know anything about Pete Carroll,
(21:26):
it is he will coach up your secondary. Max Crosby's awesome.
And is it on the board that the defense will
naturally be a bit better because they don't have the
energy sapped that a team has by having awful quarterback play.
You add to it that I love Jenty Bowers is great.
(21:49):
I don't have to preach the gospel of Geno to you.
And listen, I on my show, I picked the Raiders
to make the playoffs. Wow, I need seven wins for this.
I think the Raiders over is a very very healthy bet.
Speaker 1 (22:08):
Yeah. I think this is going to be your worst
take of the this. Wow, well not the over. That's fine.
Can they win seven games? I'm going to go against
it if we do a long enough list. And now
I don't need to take that pick anytime soon because
I know where you're going. But making the playoffs seems
crazy to me. I mean, I get it, best defensive
coach all that. I also like to pick what I'm
(22:30):
rooting for, and I am rooting for the Raiders this
year because of Gino, So I'm conflicted. But Pe Carol
wasn't a good defensive coach for like the last eight
years of his career in Seattle, and that roster stinks.
I mean it is. I think it is the worst
defensive roster in the NFL. I actually don't think it's close,
even though it has Max Crosby. They are thirty two,
thirty one thirty so that just seems like a lot
(22:52):
to overcome for me.
Speaker 2 (22:55):
So that's that's disappointing. I thought you might be with
me because you're like, you know so much.
Speaker 1 (23:00):
I do, and I'm rooting for it. So I'll be
conflicted when I take the under. Later, if we go
long enough, we'll see how many we get through. I'm
gonna go with one I know you're not taking. Maybe
I should be strategic. Then let's actually go one further
down the list and let's go Vikings over eight and
a half. Now, that was one of the things that
(23:20):
stuck with me all the way Sinceabril you look surprised.
Speaker 2 (23:24):
Oh, I am very surprised.
Speaker 1 (23:26):
I know they won. What did they win last year?
Speaker 2 (23:28):
Fourteen fourteen games and.
Speaker 1 (23:30):
The Bears won five, by the way, and they have
the exact same over under this year. I just think
people are just like, oh, how could we possibly recover
from losing Sam Donald? Just think of all the teams
that fell apart after they got rid of Sam Donald.
It's like, no, Sam Donald was not that important to
this team. The offensive scheme, the best wide receiver in
the NFL, the coach, they were what's important, and oh,
(23:54):
by the way, like the best defense in the NFL,
or maybe the most talented entering year three. I get
the schedules really tough, and I'm betting on two NFC
North teams here, which is, like you mentioned, a little
tricky to go over on both of them. But eight
and a half just felt like I would be really
surprised if this team had a losing record this year.
(24:15):
I really would. I like them better than the Packers.
I like them, you know, to win. I would put them.
If it was at nine and a half, I'd go
over that too. Here's my only question on the best
defense in football. Part of it so many turnovers last
year like.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
That is that that is the one piece of that
that is a little concerning, and the other pieces, obviously,
JJ McCarthy, with the limited experience in college we have,
You're right that we have seen Kevin O'Connell win with
Cousins and Donald and you know, and get the best
out of those guys. What we haven't seen Kevin O'Connell
(24:54):
do is win with inexperience, Like Donald's experience was bad,
but it was experience. Cousins had a bunch of experience
obviously when Kevin O'Connell got there, and so JJ not
playing a ton in college, being that young, and then
missing all of last year, that to me would be
a concern. Plus I'm probably higher on the Bears than
(25:16):
you are, leads to where I would it is hard
to go from fourteen wins to seven wins like that
is relatively speaking, pretty rare. But I wouldn't have gone
with the over so that you could have taken this
whenever you wanted it.
Speaker 1 (25:32):
Yeah, that's the thing. After doing these vats, everyone has
much different opinions. Anyways, it was surprising actually that we
had so much in common, at least with the Chiefs
and the Colts up at the top. But I feel
great about this. Dosmentella said, this is their master's level.
The year on the defense, year three, I think I
think they're going to be peaking. All right, you're up next.
Speaker 2 (25:53):
All right. This is one that I fear you might
have tipped your hand a bit when you the AFC West.
Isn't that good? This is one of my This goes
hand in hand with my Raiders over the Denver Broncos
are not winning ten games under nine and a half.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
I love this. It's pretty low on my list, so
I'm fine with you taking it and taking more of
the heat from the Broncos fans who are They're just
out there.
Speaker 2 (26:25):
Yeah, well, listen, be happy you live in one of
the most beautiful cities in the world. Be happy that
you get to watch Nikola Jokic play basketball. There's a
lot of things to be happy about that you live
in Denver, But this, I I could go quite some
(26:46):
time about the lunacy of how overvalued I find this
team to be. First of all, everyone is. Everyone sends
me these just glowing dissertation Sean Payton gives on bone knicks,
and all I do is I just google news timeline
(27:10):
this time seven years ago, six years ago, and five
years ago, when I was subjected to in the same
offseasons dissertations about how, hey, Steve Young, you know, he
reminds me a lot of Taysom Hill, Taysom like that.
And again, I don't think bo Nicks is Taysom Hill,
but I think he's closer to Taysom Hill than the
(27:31):
guy Sean Payton's trying to convince me he's close to,
which is Drew Brees. I also have never seen a
team that got went owen seven against the other AFC
good teams last year, unless we're including the Chiefs backups,
and then you can't even say they were peaking at
the end of the year. They played Buffalo and got
(27:53):
curb stumped. So Nick, how did they get to ten wins? Well,
let's go through it just quickly. And again, I think
the Brons defense should be really good. I am I
nervous about the injury concerns for the two big pieces
from San Francisco, of course, but the quarterbacks that this
Denver Broncos team beat last year after having a great
(28:15):
game against Baker were the following Aaron Rodgers Aidan O'Connell,
whoever the hell was starting for the Saints last year.
I don't it was a car He's not in football anymore, right,
br it was it Bright the Panthers quarterback in Week eight?
Speaker 1 (28:35):
Bryce Broncos was rattler. I think on a primetime game.
Speaker 2 (28:38):
Actual, Oh, the Saints Saints was rattler.
Speaker 1 (28:41):
That's right.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
It wasn't corner. That is correct, Kirk Cousins right before
they pulled the ripcord the Raiders again. I assume O'Connell
the Brown starting quarterback in Week thirteen last year. Let's
check and see who that stud was. It was jamis Uh,
the Cults quarterback in week fifteen. Is he a starter anymore? No?
(29:04):
I'm sorry. That was Anthony Richardson and then Chad Henny.
So you beat you beat two guys who are currently starters,
one of which is forty two now.
Speaker 1 (29:16):
And did you just say they played against Chad Henny?
Speaker 2 (29:19):
And everyone's like, all right, and I'm wrong. Chad Henny's
not the backup anymore? Is Carson Wentz? It was Carson Wentz.
I apologie like.
Speaker 1 (29:26):
I was, you know, I was. I was a lonely
man once on Chad Henney Island.
Speaker 2 (29:30):
Hey man, he had one of the greatest, one of
the great out of the Chief's history. Anything is possible
to scramble on third and sixteen against the Browns in
the playoffs, But and then I just the only thing
Sean Payton has enjoyed more than cultivating friends in the
media and talking up bo Nicks is reminding people how
(29:53):
close he was to drafting Patrick Mahomes and telling Seth
Wickersham about his his prietary algorithm of evaluating quarterbacks, which
is just completion percentage minus bad plays. And so color
me skeptical that the Broncos are a true contender. I
(30:14):
will go under.
Speaker 1 (30:16):
I love all that, and they were very you know,
I made a pretty long list. Broncos under nine and
a half was on it, though the Swords a bottom,
but it was on it. Yeah, part of it. Do
I have the guts because I do like looking at
offensive line plus defensive line and just like that. That's
where you find a lot of underrated teams. It's why
I'm gonna choose my next over I might as well
(30:38):
just say it's a Jets. It's just gonna be an
over going high. But that's a reason to like the Broncos,
by the way, is that, man, their lines really do
look pretty darn good. And that is Sean Payton's secret sauce,
I think more than his algorithm. That is so funny. Yeah,
I think he always has a good offensive line. He's
hired good offensive line coaches. They've just they've just found
(31:00):
a way to maximize that unit in a way very
few teams have. So that makes me worried. But I am.
I'm under on them too. I love that. All right,
let's go to the Jets. I've been saying it all
offseas I got to just like stick with what I
actually feel. I thought the craziest thing when the when
the totals still came when they came out was the
gap between the Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets. I just I
just don't get it, and I just think these teams
(31:22):
are all closer than you'd expect. I think the Jets
have a very good offensive line. I think they could
have a pretty good defensive line. I like the changes
in terms of Aaron Glenn becoming their head coach. I
think Robert Sala was a little overrated. I know the
defense played pretty well for him there but the talent
on defense is still there in five and a half
(31:44):
is so low in that division. You look at their schedule,
the AFC schedules out of the division is ideal, and
you get four games against Dolphins and the Patriots, which
I think are winnable at least, you know, split those
games for the Jets. I feel good about five and
a half. I think it's one of the it's one
of the dumbest things in sports. Is nothing harder to do,
(32:05):
you know, to win a game in the NFL. It's
it's actually not that hard to win about six games
in the NFL. You don't have to be that good.
You just need to get a good schedule and have,
you know, some good vibes in the building and some talent,
and they definitely have that. So I like the Jets
to go like seven and ten. I feel good about
over five and a halfs.
Speaker 2 (32:23):
So listen, here's what I like about the Jets chances
of just having a normal, fine below average year, which
is what you're describing. This is the first season that
players and coaches on the Jets have been able to
operate day to day with the media and then week
(32:46):
to week without every single thing being a referendum on
what about the quarterback? Because going from Donald to Zach
to Aaron, every body was just n PC and the
development of that guy's movie. And so I thought it
(33:08):
was really smart of Aaron Glenn to go, like, not
only move off Aaron, but to also pick as banal
a quarterback as you could find in fields like listen,
nobody's really going Nobody's like, oh man, is he the answer?
He's it's not about n there.
Speaker 1 (33:27):
Oh really, I don't really know that. But there are
fields fans out there there, yes.
Speaker 2 (33:32):
But still but but it's not everyone else can just
go about their business and it's like he's building the
team and then they'll address the quarterback, which is not
a good way to win a championship, but it might
be a good way to get things going. So I
I'm fine with that. I I don't even remember where
I had them. I also think the that it doesn't matter,
(33:55):
so I do think though. My only concern is I
do think that they're probably the last place team in
that division. But now some would say the Dolphins the
floor could fall out, which is fair. But yeah, I
don't mind the I don't mind over five and a
half like you.
Speaker 1 (34:14):
I can't do you know, actual bets like you. But
whatever their playoff odds are, like, I would like the
value on that. I don't think it's that crazy to
imagine them as like the seven team you just talked about,
you know, culture change. I think they're going to be
a little more like you think the Raiders are going
to be. Where just culture, which is really important. They
have a clear like person in charge. Usually it's ownership.
(34:35):
It gets messy. Douglas and Salah were they were kind
of feckless. Like this is Aaron Glenn's organization. I mean,
have you heard a word out of their GM? Do
you even know who it is? Darren Mujie who has
no presence whensoever either, And like it's clearly just a
Glenn higher and it's all about Aaron Glenn. And I'm
I'm kind of buying into the aeron I used to
just make them fun.
Speaker 2 (34:55):
Can I do an? I can we have a quick
sidebar conversation.
Speaker 1 (34:59):
I want to. I want to get to these picks,
but yes, just very quick.
Speaker 2 (35:03):
If the Jets do make the playoffs, I think that
would probably mean the Patriots don't. Yeah, And if the
Jets make the playoffs and the Patriots don't. I just
would like your great producer Eric to just cut together
a few of your kind of almost just throw in
(35:25):
asides over the summer about how obviously great Drake May is,
like it's not even worth discussing like I have, you know,
like the the and whether it was in your tiers list.
When you argue with Sando, it's like it's just I
think in a courtroom, if I were the other attorney,
(35:45):
I would say, objection your honor. Fact's not yet in evidence.
I like, and I like Drake May.
Speaker 1 (35:51):
I think that's fair. I had regrets, not regrets, but
second thoughts after we did that, Kiv tears. It was like,
am I putting the cart before the horse a little bit?
Andre me, Well, I mean, if.
Speaker 2 (36:01):
They if they've been as third in the division this year,
then I'm just saying we need to look at the
cart and the horse together, all right. My next one,
I'm gonna go with another under there's two I'm looking at,
and so I'm gonna be strategic on which one I
go with. I'm gonna go with one that I think
(36:22):
you could take the Niners under ten and a half.
Speaker 1 (36:27):
Hmmm.
Speaker 2 (36:29):
So I this will be from a talent perspective, the
worst defense they've had there since Shanahan first got there. Now,
I think Sala will do a nice job with you know,
taking over the coordinator spot. I don't doubt that in
the least. However, I aside from Bosa Warner, it's a
(36:53):
bunch of real question marks on the defensive side of
the ball. I the the injuries at wide receiver at
this point are almost cartoonish. And I now, some quarterbacks
can take a receiving corps of Sky Moore and Marquez
Valdez Scantling and win multiple Super Bowls, but rock Perty
(37:14):
is not one of them, and so that worries me.
Christian McCaffrey when he's out there is a top three
back in the league, but the win he's out there
part is concern. And like Trent Williams, they can't win
without Trent Williams. And Trent Williams backup signed with Kansas City,
so like that's you know, and he's the oldest tackle
(37:37):
in the league. All of that plus Kyle not so
subtly lowering the expectations for everyone, and all of that,
the fact I couldn't I'm stunned at this number, that
it's ten and a half, and what right? What everybody
argues is the schedule, And my counter to that is simple,
(38:01):
what if the Niners are a soft spot in some
other team schedule? And so I just the fact that
this team, in theory, could win the division, make the playoffs,
and the under still hit all take the under ten
and a half.
Speaker 1 (38:19):
Yeah, this is one. I don't know what happens for
you because you know you're on three hours a day
now and you got your YouTube show. So I mean,
first of all, you're doing the nicest thing possible. We're
not We've never even met in real life. This is
only the second time you says. But the nicest thing
you can do for a friend is you're giving me
more airtime and a day that you're doing little hours
and hours. But what happens when you just don't know,
(38:42):
you don't have a take. That's where I'm at with
this entire division, with the forty nine ers. I've gone
back and forth in my mind all division. If I
had to make one right now, I probably would go
with you and under, but it wouldn't it certainly wouldn't
make my top ten. And I won't pat myself on
the back or feel bad about anything that happens in
this division because I don't have a take. I really
(39:04):
don't don't. I don't know, I don't know. I don't
have a strong take on anything that could happen here.
You could tell me anything, I wouldn't be surprised.
Speaker 2 (39:11):
Yeah, that's how I kind of feel about the Cardinals
and Seahawks. Yes I do. I do feel strongly about
the Rams that if Stafford's healthy, they're gonna be excellent.
But if Stafford's healthy, part is such a you know, huge,
you know, dark cloud hanging over all.
Speaker 1 (39:28):
Right, I will I will go next. Got your nine ers,
You did not take one from me. I'm gonna go
Cowboys over seven and a half. You're you're you're reacting
like I took it from you, or that you think
it's a dumb pick. I love this pick. I could
have taken it even higher. They're they're in a division
(39:48):
where I think the commanders are overrated. That that's one
where I've seen enough of your social clips where I
know we're on different sides of things there, and so
I think the commanders are overrated Giants. We'll see I mean,
they're fine. And man, they have Dak Prescott on their team,
a quarterback that I absolutely trust, a lot of talent
on that offensive line that's young. I am buying the
(40:13):
propaganda that Brian Schottenheimer will be a better head coach
than he was a coordinator. He's got a little bit
of his dad. I think he's got that organization in
terms of his coaching staff and the players kind of
tuning out the noise as well as he as anyone
possibly could. And ultimately, I think they still have the
bones of a team that won twelve games, you know,
three years in a row with a pretty mediocre head coach.
(40:36):
I love their defensive line. I mean, I think it
could be the best edge group in the league. Assuming
Michaeh Parsons is going to be on the team. And
I am assuming that. I know you talk about it
every day and stuff, but it just history tells us
he will be on that team. It would be a
blow to my pick if he's not on the team.
But it's not eight and a half. It's at seven
and a half, and I feel great. I think they're
(40:57):
gonna win ten games. I have them in the playoffs
like the Cowboys, this year. Wow, probably should have taken
them earlier. To be honest, No, I think.
Speaker 2 (41:04):
You didn't need to because I was gonna go under.
Speaker 1 (41:07):
Go for now, have a challenge you could take.
Speaker 2 (41:09):
Well, here's the problem we are. We're I'm working off
Can I say the sports book that I got my numbers? Yes, okay,
we have I don't know, and the I'm working off
the DraftKings numbers. And so the Draft Kings total was
at eight and a half with a lot of juice
on the under, so you know what I mean. So
(41:30):
that's why you st Yes, the real back in the day,
some win totals landed on even numbers, you know what
I mean. It was so the real Cowboys total, if
it was ten years ago, would have been set at eight.
Speaker 1 (41:44):
If you wanna, if you wanna step up here, make
it eight and we go on different sides. It's just
a fun little challenge here. I'm good with that.
Speaker 2 (41:53):
Yeah, sure deal, that's fine, right, Yeah, So that it's
so no action if they go eight and nine. I
kind of screwed you if they go eight nine, because
you would already land grabbed the seven and a half. No,
I think this could be a year from hell. For them.
I I'm very your I respect your football opinion so
(42:14):
much that your opinion of their D line is making
me reconsider my opinion of their D line because I
look at the Cowboys as a team that with with
Micah Parsons should have an okay defense, and without Micah
Parsons might be one of the worst defenses in football. Now,
it sounds like you feel very differently than me about that.
(42:37):
And I also think the I think Micah going to
get this second opinion on his back is uh not
so subtle shot across the bow of we will miss games. Yeah,
I agree, and so there's that. I also, I just
don't see how they Dak's going to have to have
(43:03):
a phenomenal season for them to win, and I don't
know it. Like George Pickens is to me, I put
him in the kind of the bucket of player, which
is in leads my He's one of the reasons that
in professional football, more than any other sport, I believe
(43:24):
talent can be wildly overrated. Like I hear so much
the guy's got so much talent, Like football is too
hard and too brutal and too many other things that
if talent's the only thing you can lead with that
I don't necessarily trust you, And so the Schottenheimer piece
(43:45):
concerns me. I just never like the Hey, if you
didn't get that job, who else was going to give
it to you? In the answer to shoot nobody, Like
I gotta tell you I had that always.
Speaker 1 (43:58):
The Cowboys though, they're just they're just different. But what
they're they're not in general is consistently bad. I mean,
certainly in the dak or Tony Romo era, like give
me the back to back lousy years out of the Cowboys,
I hear all that. I think they are among the
highest variance defenses in the league. I'm counting a lot
on Matt Eberflus to like get that system and kind
(44:20):
of put a top over it. By you know, I
think it might be ugly early. They have a couple
really talented cornerbacks and Travon Diggs and Chevon Ravel like that.
We just don't know. Injury wise, they will be run on.
Like in the interior, it does not look good. But
that edge group, if if you just go through it.
Sam Williams is really talented coming off in a cl
mar marshawn neland Dante Fowler, Michah Parsons, Donovanezeraku five deep.
(44:43):
That's as good as it. That's he was good last year.
He was literally the Commander's probably second best passer. I'm
just saying he's like a rotational guy. Okay that I
don't know if that counts as one of your Yeah.
Speaker 2 (44:55):
You did Cowboys over I did Cowboys.
Speaker 1 (44:57):
So then I'm back. The one thing I'm rooting for
now more than anything is the Cowboys not to land
on eight. That'll just bother me so much. If you
win because of that.
Speaker 2 (45:06):
No, I won't win because of that.
Speaker 1 (45:07):
It'd be a push, sure, but I mean, like the
overall competition between okas, if somehow that push makes a difference,
I'll vote Commanders under nine and a half. I'm not
being strategic. Also, we only have like ten minutes left,
so I should get the ones out that I want
because I know you like the Commanders a lot this year.
I think there's a lot of ways that this could
go really wrong. Obviously, it's tough to bet against such
(45:30):
a or pick because I don't bet against a quarterback
this good in Jaden Daniels, but it is going to
be his second year in the league, so it's not
the longest track record of success a unique offense, and
I just think the defense could be really poor, the
skill position depth very poor, and I think there's just
a lot of ways it could go wrong and they
could be a losing team.
Speaker 2 (45:51):
So I'm probably not quite as high on the Commanders
as you think. I'm sure what you saw.
Speaker 1 (45:55):
Well, I saw you had them ahead of the Eagles.
Speaker 2 (45:57):
Well, so, yeah, So I had the Commanders and the
Eagles both eleven and six. And if the in my
make believe standings in my predictions, am I going to
actually figure out who would win the make believe tiebreaker?
Or does tie go to more interesting? It went to
more if I have him both eleven and six and
Eagles fans hate me already, might as well be like,
and you know what, when I've crunched the numbers, the
(46:19):
Commander's baith on strength of scheduled tiebreaker or they're gonna
win the division. And so my I have a bias
against skinny football players, particularly the quarterback position. And because
of that, I was a Jaden skeptic, and he.
Speaker 1 (46:36):
Was like very wrong on Lamar, you know the.
Speaker 2 (46:40):
I mean, I've been the most right person in sports
media about Lamar Jackson in one day, people will admit it.
And there's nothing wrong with being Aaron Judge man, all
time great, get a statue one day, there's nothing wrong
with it. Uh and the and Lamar's not skinny. You've
seen Lamar's neck. It goes past his ears. I was
(47:00):
worried about Jaden's ability to stay healthy, and last year
I got to admit when he got obviously injuries. The
worst thing you can do in sports takery is be like,
I think the guy's super talented, but I'm worried he
won't stay healthy because it's it's a bummer of a take,
(47:20):
and if you are correct, you don't get to like
be like told you like, there's never like a moment,
keep it in your pocket. And but he did get
hit last year. He did get the bruised ribs and
it didn't matter like he had the brief moment where
his play dipped a bit. He is super talented, and
(47:41):
I love how they added to the offensive line, and
I think that they're patchworking the defense. So I do
like the commanders. I'm not a commander's going to the
super Bowl guy, but I wouldn't have gone under all right,
I'm gonna go. It's my turnout. I know.
Speaker 1 (47:59):
I'm actually surprised went with that so high. That was
a spiteful just to get a saucy pick in there.
Go ahead, let's let's go, We'll get.
Speaker 2 (48:06):
This is my uh, this is the last year I
can ride with this guy in this team if they don't,
if he doesn't come through for me, and I'm going
with the Prince that was promised and the Jaguars over
seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (48:24):
This kills me. This, This shows I shouldn't have taken
Cowboys or commuted, because in my heart I believe that
more than the picks I've already done. WI it was
lower on the list. I'm looking at the stupid list.
I'm with you.
Speaker 2 (48:36):
It's terrible move by you. Listen, man, I still believe
in Trevor Lawrence. But man, he's got a validated and
I don't like when people say he never has, like
it's all based on college year two for him. He
was good. The following year they started eight and three,
(48:56):
and then he got maimed in that Monday night football game.
They didn't have a cart to take him off the field.
And poor guy hasn't been the same ever since. Hopefully
he is this year. You are, I think correctly super
high on Travis Hunter. I think for Trevor's case, it's
really nice that he seems to be they're gonna lean
more offense than defense with him. Brian Thomas Junior is excellent,
(49:20):
and it seemed like they were just done with the
Doug Peterson experience, and so I think that we talked
about how the Colts and the weakness there. I think
in that division, could they win it? Sure would I
be I'd be devastated if they don't get to eight wins.
(49:41):
I think they can get to ten. So I will
go over Jacksonville.
Speaker 1 (49:46):
I love that sometimes you don't really know what your
heart truly feels until you're just like doing these shows.
And truly I think I would have the Jaguars in
my top five or so I'm in on this.
Speaker 2 (49:56):
So I got one of your best bets and you
got one of mine. Yeah, because you've got Colts under
and I got jackson And.
Speaker 1 (50:02):
With that in mind, I'm going against what I had
written down and I'm taking Saints under five and a
half before anyone else does, just in case I just
feel like, man if they got to five wins, I
would say, bravo, Kellen Moore. I just good job. I
just think this team stinks. I think they could be
two and fifteen. I went to camp and I was
(50:22):
actually like, man, their defense is kind of spicy, and
isn't that what you're You're so surprised by that?
Speaker 2 (50:28):
No, well, I just I just think soft spot in
your heart for Louisiana and for New Orleans.
Speaker 1 (50:35):
And here's the thing though, Saints fans, they don't want this,
but they kind of want this. So I think if
they get along the journey, I won't even feel bad
rudy against them because hashtag arch my back. They want
the scenario where they're just they're getting in position for
Archie Manning, who you know they believe will only come
(50:56):
out in the draft if the Saints have the one pick,
which is probably wishful thinking and stupid, but.
Speaker 2 (51:02):
Yeah, I would say, I would say, is it not
on the board that the opposite's true? The only way
he doesn't come out, I'm gonna go Bengals under nine
and a half bolt on.
Speaker 1 (51:14):
My very long list. I agree, but wouldn't have been
something I would have picked.
Speaker 2 (51:18):
I just I don't understand why it's going to be
different than last year, and the answer can be, well,
the defense won't be quite as bad and the offense
probably won't be quite as good. I think the Bengals
offensive line is one of the more underdiscussed big question
marks of the season. I think that the defense is.
(51:42):
I listen as a Chiefs fan, I'm glad they got
rid of Louis and Arumo. Like he I understand that
he struggled there last year. He sure seemed in the
playoffs to give Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen trouble. Which
if I'm the Bengals, that's actually all I want for
my decoordinator. You can do what the Bills do, which
is have a defensive coordinators that are unbelievable throughout the
(52:05):
regular season and then can't stop a good quarterback in
the playoffs or with the Bengals head which is the opposite.
And so I also fundamentally disagree with how they have
decided to build this team, and I think that they
are I think that we are staring at a again.
(52:28):
I understand he's arguably the greatest coach of all time,
but so not to disrespect Sean Payton's tenure with the Saints,
but a similar run of when they breeze had three
consecutive years where he averaged five thousand yards passing and
they went seven to nine every single year. And I
think that unlike Sean, I don't think Zach Taylor survives it.
(52:51):
I think they missed the playoffs again, and I think
Zach Taylor's fired.
Speaker 1 (52:55):
Yeah, I'm torn on this one, but ultimately I agree.
It's not that different than my colts pick larger than
just the players involved. It's the organization, it's the structure
of it all that just that's gonna sink them. Ultimately,
I agree. All right, I want to have an odd number.
We can't. We can't be tied. So let's go. I'll
do two more, you go one more, and then that'll
(53:16):
put us at nine inch.
Speaker 2 (53:18):
Can I just ask a quick question? Yeah, I know
that math is not a strong suit of this show.
How on earth does whether we each have eight, nine
or ten impact whether or not we tie?
Speaker 1 (53:33):
Well, because if we each that's not how I'm an idiot.
Speaker 2 (53:37):
Well you know, why don't we both?
Speaker 1 (53:42):
I was thinking you're going against each other. We got
a lot of shows, you know. I get a lot
of shows.
Speaker 2 (53:51):
Listen, man, why don't you do an eighth and then
we will have done sixteen.
Speaker 1 (53:56):
That's happened. That's that's perfect.
Speaker 2 (54:00):
Man.
Speaker 1 (54:00):
This is tough, and I'll just give some freebies to
the people out there. The ones I'm considering. The Dolphins
under eight and a half feels like it's too obvious
for everyone, and yet I do like it. The Giants
over five and a half takes the little guts, but
I do believe in it. I think they're going to
be better than people think. The Ravens over eleven and
a half doesn't take a lot of guts, but I
(54:21):
do think they'll they'll get there. But I think, just
for consistency all three years on these over unders, I
have taken the Bears under and you know, and this
is only going you know, we only had three or
four picks each year, and they were my first pick,
I think, or like last year.
Speaker 2 (54:39):
Last year, you were correct. I know nobody was more
every year I've been correct.
Speaker 1 (54:43):
They've been under every year.
Speaker 2 (54:44):
Nobody was more wrong about the Bears in the national
media than me last year, and you were about as
right as anybody.
Speaker 1 (54:51):
So ty Ty, and you said in your case Ty
goes to, what's the sauce of your pick? To me?
The Bear just consistency for the sake of the show,
going Bears under for the fourth straight year, even though
I do think they will be better eight and a
half in that division where I like the Vikings and
the Lions quite a bit. I think he'll have done
a fine job, Ben Johnson. If they win seven or
eight games. They're not as talented. I don't think as
(55:14):
people think, certainly on defense, and so I'll go under Bears.
Speaker 2 (55:17):
Okay, that's perfect. I would have got over, So that's perfect.
We did it.
Speaker 1 (55:22):
The only man who could just slide in an amazing
joke about you know, the forty nine Ers aren't the
type of team that could win with sky Moore and
mvs at wide receiver and just just keep on going
like I hope that was off the dome. One of
the most talented guys in the business. Nick Right.
Speaker 2 (55:40):
Appreciate you, Thank you so much. Appreciate it. Loved the show.
The only thing I don't like about coming on it
is it takes now tomorrow. I got nothing to listen to.
See you later.
Speaker 1 (55:49):
Greg, Thanks all right, we will see you. Nick Wright
and saying goodbye as we hit the music and tell
you a little bit about what's coming up later this
week Forties and free Agents and FRI You'll be in
your feed. Patrick Jordan and I will be over the
weekend Our Reasons for Joy in twenty twenty five, and
then a couple of season preview episodes with Daniel Jeremiah.
(56:09):
Then we are on to our Week one schedule. The
over Unders are out. Football is back.
Host
Gregg Rosenthal
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