September 5, 2025 • 24 mins
Football's most reliable picks show is back!! Gregg Rosenthal welcomes NFL Network's own Cynthia Frelund to NFL Daily for the best (scientifically supported!) point spread picks for week 1 of the 2025 NFL regular season.
Episode includes picks for:
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Chicago Bears
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-6)
Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
+ Wildcards!!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're running it back. I'm
Greg Rosenthal here with my friend and defending champion of
all pickers, Cynthia Freelan. We're in the Chris Westling podcast
studio for the first time this season picking game, and
the first time I can officially congratulate you on not
(00:26):
just beating me in this picks competition that we're going
to do throughout the course of the season where we're
really teammates because we're going to help the house that's
our listeners. But the woman who picked the Super Bowl
and the champion before last season started Eagles over Chiefs.
I mean, what other show has someone that has done
that on it? The only the shows was Cynthia Freelan.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Hey, even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and again,
you know.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
You've got the you've got the computer model, You've got
it all.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
That's pretty amazing. It's here.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
I also made the dogs pick because I was curious.
I picked the top my top eight from my model,
and then I put a snack for each one and
I'll tell you who each dog picked too.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
Okay, tell you right now as it is. That's good
to know.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
And yes, you can check out like all of Cynthia's
picks on her show Numbers Game, which is on her
YouTube channel. She has a new podcast too with Logan Ryan,
which is very cool, and you can watch us on
NFL Network Game Day View. You're every Friday. We got
like new multiple airings. There's like one in the morning
on Friday too.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
I love it. So you can get all our picks there.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
Here we pick our three favorite selections against the spread
of the week, and we will keep track of our
records and hopefully help you out. And I will give
you the first pick of the year.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
Well, the first pick of the year will go to
the game that is played the last on the first
weekend of the year. Okay, okay, So it is played
at Soldier Field and Minnesota comes to town, and you
know Brian Flores, my friend from college. He's got this
really good defense. It's real sneaky. They do a lot
of weird stuff with like are you gonna blitz? Are
you gonna is it a simulator? Pressure are going to do?
(02:00):
But you know who's not going to be tricked?
Speaker 3 (02:02):
Ben Johnson Williams.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
That's right. I think we get an upset.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Wow, certain strong.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Here Vikings are favored by one and a half, and
I be winning on the road, and you have the
Bears not only covering, but winning.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
Outright winners straight up.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
Not going to be one of my three picks, but
longtime listeners of the show, and by that I mean
last season, which was the first. Well, remember I write
down a lot of picks. I have some scribbles at
the bottom of one that didn't quite make the cut.
Speaker 2 (02:33):
I remember at the beginning of the season, the scribbles
were actually beating, they were on.
Speaker 1 (02:35):
Fire, and we're going to keep track of them this
year once again. So my Vikings pick was one that
you know, didn't make the cut because I personally like
the Vikings overall as a team. And this is one
thing I think players that people are picking games this
week and have to be wary of. Just because I
think the Vikings are a better team overall over the
course of the season than the Bears, don't necessarily that
(02:58):
doesn't mean that they should weak Week one, and plus
I could be basing it on false assumptions. They might
not be better than the Bears over the course of
the season. Actually, who who does your overall win totals
have been better?
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Oh? It has the Vikings. Yeah, this is a one
time beginning of the season trick play situation, because in
any game, you know, you could like in division these
division rivals. Here's here are my two problems with the
Vikings that drive the Bears win. Number one, we've been
talking about how the Bears have remade their O line.
We're still questioning who the tackles, blah blah blah. But
(03:28):
you know what, we don't really talk about the fact
that JJ McCarthy, who's coming back from injury, played like
a hot second in a pregame. It's he's a rookie
without being a rookie, right, And he gets a new
O line too, and they're remade and we don't know
if they're great. They could be, but we don't know.
We haven't seen it either, so I'm not sold on
what that line. And note Jordan Madison, Yeah we have
(03:51):
Adam thelen that came back to but he can make
it down. Last week, you're telling me that that chemistry
is going to be fully formed already. Your girl, says
Ben Jonson has an enough tricks in his bag to
make this one better.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
For caleboy, you're making me worried.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
You've got some numbers that are probably you know, put
into the big models that support that that Ben Johnson
had Brian Flores's number.
Speaker 3 (04:12):
Like, you can look at all the great stats.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
Of the Vikings over the last few years, imagine how
great they'd be if you took out those Lions game,
because the Lions are averaging about thirty thirty five points
a game on it. I looked hoping for you know,
back in them. I picked the other way, and it
was the opposite. They cooked them game after But.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
Over the course of the season, I have the Vikings
finishing ahead of the Packers. Okay, I think this is
the Week one.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
It's week one.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
Let's have over reactions.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
This is one, I think. Okay, I'm starting out spicy.
Speaker 2 (04:39):
Oh I started spicy.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
I'm going with set.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
Wasn't spicy enough for you?
Speaker 1 (04:43):
That was very spicy. Okay, I'm not saying I wasn't
making a judgment on your pick. I'm just saying, already, Greg,
I'm going Giants plus six against the Commanders on the
road this week. I looked at this game and I
was tempted to just pick an upset.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
It just fit. Week one is a liar.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
Very often, it's crazy and it just wouldn't shock me
if the Giants come out and win this game, but
getting six points, it just set off alarm bells. A
division game which is off these two staffs that you know,
they got to know each other a little bit last year,
and the only one that I think notably improved their
(05:23):
defense maybe overall team in my mind, is the Giants.
And then I looked at last year and those were
two of the games. For what it's worth that Brian
Dable and Daniel Jones had two of their best games
of the season in terms of EPA per play. I
think two of their three best games of the season
were against Washington. I remember those games well. The Giants
moved the ball well. In neither of those games last
(05:44):
year did the Commanders cover six points. They were close games,
and ultimately I think the Giants improved more this offseason.
I don't think the gap between them over the course
of the season is as big as all the statistical
models have so I could be very wrong. Maybe maybe
yours disagrees with me, but they have Washington backing up
their season from a year ago. I think the Giants
(06:06):
are going to be much better. I think the Commanders
are going to be worse, and so I'm going Giants.
Speaker 2 (06:10):
I think the Giants are going to be a team
that ends up last in their division. That we're like,
this team is so much better than there because theirs
schedule is a frickin nightmare.
Speaker 3 (06:19):
It is.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
We've talked about that since May when the schedule release,
when we had this giant schedule release show. Woah, the
schedules anyways, but we've been talking about it since then,
and I agree with you that they've gotten considerably better.
My problem, my problem right now is I'm looking at
the injury report and I'm seeing Andrew Thomas.
Speaker 3 (06:36):
He is very dumb.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
Dumb again. It starts what's going on with this O line.
That is just where I have some fear there, and
that's what keeps you from I don't I actually I'm
with you at like six feels like that's just a
that's an annoying number. Like if it were a different number,
I'd feel differently about it. But I feel like it
could they could keep it closer. I just feel like
I've seen this this playbook before where the Giants have
(06:59):
a good defensive front, but then the O line is
like a big question mark. And uh uh r, is
Milik Neighbor's injury real? Like, is it going to actually ham?
Speaker 3 (07:11):
I'm not finking out.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
I'm just I just don't like when I see an
when I when I've had oline questions and I see
an online questionable to play, that's a big deal. It
just makes me like he.
Speaker 1 (07:21):
Is maybe the most important player on the entire team.
Andrew Thomas, I totally agree with that, and he's coming
back from a really serious injury and we don't know
for sure that he's playing this week. It sounded like
it was trending in the right direction. I'm not totally
afraid of the Commanders, I'm saying, but it's definitely a
little dicey. What I'm counting on is Abdull Carter and
(07:43):
Brian Burns in that pass rush getting.
Speaker 3 (07:45):
After I mean, that's gonna be great the Commanders.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
But they've they've added you know, Laramie Tuntel to the mix,
and they've added a first round pick, so that in uh,
Josh Connery, So that'll be an interesting matchup.
Speaker 3 (07:53):
Let's go to your second pick.
Speaker 2 (07:54):
Okay, I think you and I are on the opposite
sides of this game, but I the son Okay, I
think Buffalo wins.
Speaker 1 (08:02):
Wow, that's one of your three. How did you choose
which of these three to pick?
Speaker 2 (08:07):
I asked someone with really good hair.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
Okay, the guy with the good.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
Hair, the guy with the good hair. I'm like, let's
what I don't Week one, I don't have any you know.
What's weird is like I try to every year, got
to clean the slate. I don't have any preconceived notions
about any teams this year. Try to go in with,
like what do the facts say? Who are they objective?
Speaker 3 (08:24):
Like?
Speaker 2 (08:24):
Because obviously we all have things that we like and
we don't like. We have people we like and we
don't like. So I try to like really just wash
that all away. I do like the Bills. I like
the Ravens too, though, so what I'm here, I'm here
what a.
Speaker 3 (08:36):
Home underdog that the Bills are right now? Underdog?
Speaker 1 (08:40):
Yes, yeah, it's one and a half for the Ravens
right now. It started out as the Bills, is that's right?
Speaker 3 (08:44):
Favorite?
Speaker 2 (08:44):
And now why do I think? Why do I think
the Bills?
Speaker 3 (08:47):
Well?
Speaker 2 (08:48):
One, I really think that the ability to control the ball.
Usually we talk about Baltimore, we're talking about ball control offense. Well,
I'm actually thinking the Bills might take that tact this time.
And Josh Allen himself seven rushing touchdowns in the past
two seasons. That's a lot. That's a lot of them.
And I'm looking I was watching the O line play.
That's one of the only things for preseason that you
(09:08):
can sort of see. I think Osius Torrance might be
even better than he was. I think this O line
is good. I don't know who the offensive pass catchers
that they're really gonna have to you know, this Ravens
defense is gonna have to account for what who are they?
Speaker 3 (09:24):
Friders coming off an injuries. Sounds like he'll play.
Speaker 2 (09:26):
But it sounds like you'll play, But are you?
Speaker 3 (09:28):
Ian Coleman has had a good camp, but east wait.
Speaker 2 (09:30):
And I saw him pop up on the injury report too,
so but maybe some of that. We've seen this before
where Josh Allen are like, I don't know, he's gonna
throw too and then suddenly it's like Josh Allen in
a cloud of dust. But seven points or six.
Speaker 3 (09:43):
Points, We'll see how this goes.
Speaker 1 (09:44):
All I'm saying, Cynthia, is you picked the freaking Super
Bowl with and not only that, the champion with an
Eagles team last year that if people remember going into
the year, was not a popular pick, no whatsoever, not
just to represent the NFC, but to make it far
in the playoffs. So you've done that. You you did great
with your picks a year ago. And you're you're and
(10:05):
you're giving our producer, you're mentioning Chris with the great
hair in the back. Chris has great hair, twenty two
years old. He's rocking the I don't know if.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
Chris has a girlfriend, but if you were going to
get a girlfriend based on Lettuce, Chris would be like
top of the heap.
Speaker 3 (10:17):
Okay, he's got the floppy I appreciate that.
Speaker 1 (10:19):
Yeah, yeah, but he's not like a football expert. At
this point, you are Cynthia and you've got all your
picks and you.
Speaker 3 (10:26):
And you hand it over to him and ask him
what's what he likes that.
Speaker 2 (10:30):
I gave him all the numbers. I gave him all
the numbers, all the number I stand by all.
Speaker 3 (10:34):
I love all of my Okay, in week one, I'll
buy that. I want to.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
We've been we've been thinking about this for so freaking long.
We've had these We've had this week once late and
then oh, Michael Parsons, and then everyone loses their mind
and picks Green Bay to win the Super Bowl, and
was like, all right, let's just let's actually do the
math and relax here, and then everybody hate. Did you
pick the Packers? No?
Speaker 3 (10:56):
Not, I hope so I did not pick God, I
hope you did.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
Uh for the season an or four this week, Let's
just go there now, one of my three favorite picks.
I stayed away from trying to get too into these
Week one Lions. I pretty much looked at him fresh
for the first time recently. I think I had a
vague idea who's playing, but I didn't know the Lions.
Speaker 3 (11:16):
When I saw that.
Speaker 1 (11:18):
The Lions, Your Lions are two and a half point
underdogs to the Green Bay Packers. And then I thought
about the last four years. Hey, who said your whole
era of farv to Rogers is over? You think you're
gonna go win another Super Bowl with Aaron Rodgers? No,
(11:38):
how about we beat you in Week eighteen in a
game that supposedly didn't even matter to us to end
that whole Aaron Rodgers era. How about that we're the
Detroit Lions. How about the one time you beat us,
and I don't know if people remember this the one
time the Packers beat them recently and the Lions have
won six out of seven. The one time they beat
him recently, Matt Lafleur in the post game, he was
(12:00):
on NBC or something.
Speaker 3 (12:01):
I think it was Thanksgiving, he.
Speaker 1 (12:03):
Got all it was, he got all like chesty of like,
hey people, people saying we're not tough enough. You know
that we're not a tough team, Like, we're tough and
we ran the ball. I felt in that moment it
always stuck with me that he was sort of like
his masculinity was threatened by Dan Campbell and he didn't
like that the Lions, or maybe just he felt like
his team's masculinity was threatened by the by the Lions
(12:25):
getting pushed on. Hey we're the tough guys. You know
what's happened since then? They haven't won another game. You know,
they got swept last year too, while the Lions were
all sorts of banged up.
Speaker 3 (12:34):
I love it.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
I just think the Lions are a better team and
they have a real track record here against this Packers team.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
I think recency bias sometimes afflicts people and because I do.
I will say I'm gonna put Jeff Haffley, the defensive
coordinator on the short list of guys who come the
end of the season. Were were like, who's gooting a
new head coach?
Speaker 3 (12:51):
You Joe went to against the Lions, though, to be fair.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
I'm I'm I'm just saying in general, Jeff Haffley, I
think he did. He did a good job of reconfiguring
the defense in a way that I mean. There were
second in simulator pressure, so they're doing some modern things
to help out. They won't have to simulate for pressure
this year. Once Mike is back or his back, it's okay.
Like vertebrae epidurals, these things sound very very scary to me,
but I'm just saying in general, we remember the Lions
(13:14):
also got a lot of their pieces back as well,
one named Aiden Hutchinson. Just a reminder, it's not like
the Lions are going to be playing without the end
of the season, they were playing with like nineteen people
on ir right.
Speaker 1 (13:26):
The Packers got Parsons, but the Lions got Hutchison, and.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
The Lions also got back people that know each other,
have played together. Micah just came in the building and
he rotates in. He's not a down to down player.
So it's just gonna like I think it takes a
hot second for everything to come together. I understand defense easier,
go get ball. I understand the mission statement of Micah
Parson's position, but I think in general it is a
bit more complicated than that for how the whole defense
(13:53):
works together. And they still have corners that are Jaya
Alexander at walking through that door. You know, you and
I as good as we saw Xavier McKinney last year
with all of his turnovers, turnovers aren't necessarily like there's
some luck involved in there, you know, you don't. You
can't say year over a year that just because they
had a lot of a lot of interceptions last year,
they're going to get a lot of interceptions. That's not
(14:14):
how that works. So you know, I'm I'm just saying
to me, it's you have to remember, offense plays the defense.
Offense plays the defense. Like you know that you don't.
It doesn't work like when they say quarterbacks play.
Speaker 1 (14:26):
So I'm like, no, they don't, right well, But then
when you hear quarterbacks talk, they always say like, oh,
when when I'm playing that quarterback. I'm watching him and
I know I got to play better that day, like
Joe Burt Like, so they get it in their own
head that they're going they get it.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
In their head, but they're not like facing that right.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
I think the Lions defense is going to be significantly
better than a year ago. But I'm glad you brought
up like the cornerback position for the Packers. So Nate Hobbs,
he's coming off of an injury, he was their big
free agent, is right right, He's I think going to
play in this game, but he's barely practiced over last month.
Speaker 3 (14:57):
That's what I'm saying.
Speaker 1 (14:58):
Jeehawan Rixon, Like he's okay. I think the other starting
cornerback for this team, like the nickel is Javon Bullard,
Carrington Valentine is still there. It's like it's not a
great group. Whereas I actually like the Lions on defense more.
And that all gets me to the point that I
really want to make about this game because I do
feel strong this.
Speaker 3 (15:16):
Is probably be my number one pick.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
I just think that it's the right time, like they're
getting them at the right time of the season. I
think of all these injuries that this is the week
to play them all the injuries that they they had
no receivers on the field like throughout training camp, and
they all are coming back. I don't think Jayden Reid
necessarily is. And then you know who practices harder than
(15:40):
any team and always comes out really strong early.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
It's the Detroit Lions.
Speaker 1 (15:45):
Like I heard this story from Colton Pouncey, who covers
the athletic about like Tim Patrick, he was in this
first camp with the Lions and he was like, man like, yeah,
they've like Brian branch Is coming out here like hitting like.
I just think they run a tougher camp. I think
they're all and very ready for a Week one we
saw them. Did they beat the Chiefs?
Speaker 3 (16:03):
So that they did? They beat the Chiefs in Week
one like coming off a super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
Remember it was the it was the opener when the
last time anyways.
Speaker 1 (16:09):
Whereas the Packers are not that team that that you
know practice is tackling as much plays in the preseason.
So I also think it's just a perfect time and
the Lions overall are a little healthier.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
I think this game is a huge deal maker, like
everyone's like the Packers went within a vision. The Packers
super Bowl better like the Packers window Ital went up
one whole game to surpass the Lions. It's and on
one person being trained. I'm like, wait, wait, if they
play each other week one, that game matters a lot.
It doesn't, is it really? Anyways? Point being is I
(16:41):
I'm not. I'm you know, as a Lions fan. I
am beholden by you know, everything that is Michigan in
the world. To say like I, I have fear in
my heart, and I have fear, but I think that
this your model, my model has my model says the
Lions win.
Speaker 1 (16:55):
Okay, I love that too, so you agree with me?
All right, let's do one more pick? Yeah, ok your
last one?
Speaker 2 (16:59):
Okay, where are you on Tampa Bay in Atlantic? Because
I have Tampa Bay winning this one?
Speaker 1 (17:04):
That I mean, that is one of many where I
don't have a strong feeling.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
But I did take Tampa Bay I.
Speaker 2 (17:08):
Butt by more than two. Yeah, one and a half.
Speaker 3 (17:11):
I would have them covered. I'm with you on that.
It wouldn't.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
That one just seems like such a crazy matchup that
I'd be afraid. But you're you're going with a lot
of the tough games.
Speaker 2 (17:18):
Well, the reason one of the reasons that this game,
to me, would have probably been on my list even
if I didn't, even if I didn't allow the.
Speaker 3 (17:26):
Best happen out source.
Speaker 1 (17:27):
If this works, then we can think about the strategy
more seriously.
Speaker 3 (17:31):
If it doesn't, he takes the blame. So it worked
that well?
Speaker 2 (17:34):
Well, no, I mean, listen, we put out all our
picks anyways. Yes, but when I'm looking at the bucks
in a week one, to me, it comes down to
who do I trust a quarterback more? And I trust
Baker Mayfield. Now I know Tristan Wurfs isn't there. I wouldn't.
I would prefer him to be there. But and usually
my model loves the strategy of like doubling down in
a position, and they kind of tripled down on pass
(17:55):
rush to draft Jalen They drafted it like fifteen twenty
six whatever. They dropped too. Yes, yeah, so, but it's
weird because my stuff doesn't.
Speaker 3 (18:03):
Love James Pears. Also, they're not listed as starters right now.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
Jalen Walker had a O camp weird, So I think
that's an advantage, especially when you consider on the other
side Caleb McGarry not being there. That's the problem. It's
a big one and Michael Penny. I think still think
Jon's going to have a nice game for your fantasy purposes,
do not worry. But I think that this one belongs
to the quarterback that has the track record and the
defensive mind, meaning the defensive coach meeting Todd Bowles, that
(18:31):
can stop the things they're trying to throw him.
Speaker 1 (18:33):
I'm with you. I think they're going to have a
defensive improvement this year. The Bucks did not have a
great season last year. I think the roster, I think
Todd Bowles it's all going to be better. You almost
want Kirk Cousins in this game. He was so good
again against the Buccaneers a year ago. I mean, he
had like five hundred something yard. So I'm with you
on that. But you're bold, you're taking some of the
ones i'd be most. Let's go my third pick.
Speaker 2 (18:55):
Fortune favors the bold, Greg. I'm going Jaguars go bigger
than that. Who cares about the Jags over the Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 1 (19:01):
Come on, dude, what does that even mean? They're a
bigger every pick, There is no bigger. I feel good
about it. Jaguars minus three and a half is my pick.
You're not gonna bully me every The point is to
get them right. It's not to like pick like games
that the most people are gonna watch.
Speaker 3 (19:17):
Now.
Speaker 1 (19:17):
The only thing that bothers me here is this was
three all week, and when we sat down to do that,
I saw it went to three and a half. But
I don't care. I just think they're a way more
complete team. I think they have way more defensive line
talent and and I think they have ultimately sound way guys,
way more guys than the secondary. Why is that being
(19:39):
a bully. It's the Jacksonville Jaguars. They even won a
lot of games over the last couple of years. But
I do think they're gonna unveil Travis Hunter. And you
just look at the defensive talent overall for the Panthers
and I just don't think it stacks up. When I
looked at these two depth charts, I think there's a
lot of mismatches. The Jaguars are a team I think
is going to be great this year in terms of
(20:00):
versus like their win total for instance, I really like
they're over seven and a half.
Speaker 3 (20:03):
So I'm gonna stay consistent. Go Jaguars. Okay, what does
that even mean?
Speaker 2 (20:08):
Go bigger, like what ones like one where you're like
like it's a little more like like a juicier line.
Like there's a lot of close lines this week, so
like maybe you know, like what's one, what's one that's
in the Just give me one that's.
Speaker 1 (20:19):
A little scribble. Okay, that's a bonus. Okay, we did
our three and three. You might keep track, but some
of the other ones that were interested. I just like
getting points in week one because I think it's so unpredictable.
Speaker 2 (20:30):
Sure, but it's worth the same number of points if
it's game one or two seven.
Speaker 1 (20:34):
I know, but I think in week one it's based
everything is based on faulty information, it is, which is
why I'll just take points right because like to me,
it's unpredictable, but I know what those points are worth.
For instance, the Saints are six and a half point
underdogs and the Browns are five and a half point underdogs,
(20:56):
two of the worst teams in the NFL. They're written
down as my extra picks. I would take them both
at home against teams with some weaknesses. The Browns are
playing the Bengals, yep, and.
Speaker 2 (21:05):
So you think they're gonna win or less than Okay.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
Five and a half for the Browns and then the Saints.
I just feel like that's that's a lot to give
the Cardinals. I feel a little less sure about that,
but I but I do. I'd rather just take it.
It's Week one, it's home. I like those two.
Speaker 2 (21:20):
I'm the Saints. One is tricky. Is a sneaky good
one to me because I think everyone has slept on
Alvin Kamara a lot. This passed up, like when I
was doing some fantasy drafts, he was available to me
in a round that felt ridiculously lowly right or or five?
Why we all sleeping on him so much? Because I'm
just curious if he somehow was not the guy who
(21:43):
you know, was second to Jamiir Gibbs in terms of
number of rushing attempts and past last season. I did
somehow his coach, who pretty pretty sure Kellen knows how
to deal with great running back such you know, Saque
might have a little something to say about but point bing,
you know, like I just don't see where so I'm
with you. And plus I saw them firsthand against the Broncos.
(22:04):
Was there for preseason. Okay, it's preseason, we get it.
But I don't think they're as bad as it seems.
I understand when you don't have a quarterback and you
don't name your starting quarterback until a week before the game,
it seems a little dicey. But I I'm.
Speaker 1 (22:17):
Alan's just a lot of points, a lot of uncertain
It's a I like those two. I like the Jets
giving up three points to the Steelers. I mentioned the Vikings.
I'm on the other side. The one that was the
closest to making my top three was the Dolphins.
Speaker 2 (22:32):
Oh let's talk about this. Yeah, I just I don't
do mess, baby mess. Well, but they're both mess No, no, no,
I don't do mass. Okay, right now, who's playing? Are
we sure?
Speaker 1 (22:45):
Like?
Speaker 2 (22:46):
Is Devon a chano? Okay?
Speaker 3 (22:47):
Messy?
Speaker 2 (22:48):
And remember love me some Mike mctannel. But when it
comes to lying Leer, who lies? He comes from the
tree of lying?
Speaker 3 (22:54):
Who lies?
Speaker 2 (22:55):
Kyle Shannon? So he's right now questionable? Tyreek Hill questionable?
Are they gonna play? Would you feel differently if you
if it was a half Devon a Chan half.
Speaker 1 (23:05):
Daniels indicated he feels good about Tyreek. It sounds pretty
good on a Chan. I do love their pass. Rush
On a fast track against Daniel Jones, and I actually
trust their offensive line over the Colts, where there's some
new players, some uncertainty in general everyone. This is the
Bad Vibes Bowl we talked about on our preview show.
But ultimately I like the way that the Dolphins have
(23:28):
started the last few seasons, and I kind of just
liked them in this spot having a one week, one
week win. So that's it to review our main review
the ones that matter. I have the Giants plus six.
I have your Lions plus four staff, and I have
the Jaguars as a favorite over Carolina. And you went
(23:49):
with the Bills at Home as a home underdog, Bears
at Home as a slight home underdog, and the Bucks
and yeah my extra.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
Pixel Bills, Bear, Bucks, Bills, Bear's Curious.
Speaker 3 (24:03):
I like the Dolphins, Browns, Jets. I'm going colds face.
Speaker 2 (24:07):
Come on, Colts fans, help me out here.
Speaker 3 (24:09):
We are going to be doing this every week. We are.
I can't wait.
Speaker 1 (24:12):
Numbers Game is the Podcast is the YouTube channel for
Cynthia Freeland. Please check her out there her new podcast
with Logan Ryan. Also check out We're doing a live
postgame pod for the Friday night Brazil game. So if
you're listening to this, it's only it's in a few hours.
Come check out, join us live, me and Nick Schuk.
Football is so bad it's back
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're running it back. I'm
Greg Rosenthal here with my friend and defending champion of
all pickers, Cynthia Freelan. We're in the Chris Westling podcast
studio for the first time this season picking game, and
the first time I can officially congratulate you on not
(00:26):
just beating me in this picks competition that we're going
to do throughout the course of the season where we're
really teammates because we're going to help the house that's
our listeners. But the woman who picked the Super Bowl
and the champion before last season started Eagles over Chiefs.
I mean, what other show has someone that has done
that on it? The only the shows was Cynthia Freelan.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Hey, even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and again,
you know.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
You've got the you've got the computer model, You've got
it all.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
That's pretty amazing. It's here.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
I also made the dogs pick because I was curious.
I picked the top my top eight from my model,
and then I put a snack for each one and
I'll tell you who each dog picked too.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
Okay, tell you right now as it is. That's good
to know.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
And yes, you can check out like all of Cynthia's
picks on her show Numbers Game, which is on her
YouTube channel. She has a new podcast too with Logan Ryan,
which is very cool, and you can watch us on
NFL Network Game Day View. You're every Friday. We got
like new multiple airings. There's like one in the morning
on Friday too.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
I love it. So you can get all our picks there.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
Here we pick our three favorite selections against the spread
of the week, and we will keep track of our
records and hopefully help you out. And I will give
you the first pick of the year.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
Well, the first pick of the year will go to
the game that is played the last on the first
weekend of the year. Okay, okay, So it is played
at Soldier Field and Minnesota comes to town, and you
know Brian Flores, my friend from college. He's got this
really good defense. It's real sneaky. They do a lot
of weird stuff with like are you gonna blitz? Are
you gonna is it a simulator? Pressure are going to do?
(02:00):
But you know who's not going to be tricked?
Speaker 3 (02:02):
Ben Johnson Williams.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
That's right. I think we get an upset.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Wow, certain strong.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Here Vikings are favored by one and a half, and
I be winning on the road, and you have the
Bears not only covering, but winning.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
Outright winners straight up.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
Not going to be one of my three picks, but
longtime listeners of the show, and by that I mean
last season, which was the first. Well, remember I write
down a lot of picks. I have some scribbles at
the bottom of one that didn't quite make the cut.
Speaker 2 (02:33):
I remember at the beginning of the season, the scribbles
were actually beating, they were on.
Speaker 1 (02:35):
Fire, and we're going to keep track of them this
year once again. So my Vikings pick was one that
you know, didn't make the cut because I personally like
the Vikings overall as a team. And this is one
thing I think players that people are picking games this
week and have to be wary of. Just because I
think the Vikings are a better team overall over the
course of the season than the Bears, don't necessarily that
(02:58):
doesn't mean that they should weak Week one, and plus
I could be basing it on false assumptions. They might
not be better than the Bears over the course of
the season. Actually, who who does your overall win totals
have been better?
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Oh? It has the Vikings. Yeah, this is a one
time beginning of the season trick play situation, because in
any game, you know, you could like in division these
division rivals. Here's here are my two problems with the
Vikings that drive the Bears win. Number one, we've been
talking about how the Bears have remade their O line.
We're still questioning who the tackles, blah blah blah. But
(03:28):
you know what, we don't really talk about the fact
that JJ McCarthy, who's coming back from injury, played like
a hot second in a pregame. It's he's a rookie
without being a rookie, right, And he gets a new
O line too, and they're remade and we don't know
if they're great. They could be, but we don't know.
We haven't seen it either, so I'm not sold on
what that line. And note Jordan Madison, Yeah we have
(03:51):
Adam thelen that came back to but he can make
it down. Last week, you're telling me that that chemistry
is going to be fully formed already. Your girl, says
Ben Jonson has an enough tricks in his bag to
make this one better.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
For caleboy, you're making me worried.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
You've got some numbers that are probably you know, put
into the big models that support that that Ben Johnson
had Brian Flores's number.
Speaker 3 (04:12):
Like, you can look at all the great stats.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
Of the Vikings over the last few years, imagine how
great they'd be if you took out those Lions game,
because the Lions are averaging about thirty thirty five points
a game on it. I looked hoping for you know,
back in them. I picked the other way, and it
was the opposite. They cooked them game after But.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
Over the course of the season, I have the Vikings
finishing ahead of the Packers. Okay, I think this is
the Week one.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
It's week one.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
Let's have over reactions.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
This is one, I think. Okay, I'm starting out spicy.
Speaker 2 (04:39):
Oh I started spicy.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
I'm going with set.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
Wasn't spicy enough for you?
Speaker 1 (04:43):
That was very spicy. Okay, I'm not saying I wasn't
making a judgment on your pick. I'm just saying, already, Greg,
I'm going Giants plus six against the Commanders on the
road this week. I looked at this game and I
was tempted to just pick an upset.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
It just fit. Week one is a liar.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
Very often, it's crazy and it just wouldn't shock me
if the Giants come out and win this game, but
getting six points, it just set off alarm bells. A
division game which is off these two staffs that you know,
they got to know each other a little bit last year,
and the only one that I think notably improved their
(05:23):
defense maybe overall team in my mind, is the Giants.
And then I looked at last year and those were
two of the games. For what it's worth that Brian
Dable and Daniel Jones had two of their best games
of the season in terms of EPA per play. I
think two of their three best games of the season
were against Washington. I remember those games well. The Giants
moved the ball well. In neither of those games last
(05:44):
year did the Commanders cover six points. They were close games,
and ultimately I think the Giants improved more this offseason.
I don't think the gap between them over the course
of the season is as big as all the statistical
models have so I could be very wrong. Maybe maybe
yours disagrees with me, but they have Washington backing up
their season from a year ago. I think the Giants
(06:06):
are going to be much better. I think the Commanders
are going to be worse, and so I'm going Giants.
Speaker 2 (06:10):
I think the Giants are going to be a team
that ends up last in their division. That we're like,
this team is so much better than there because theirs
schedule is a frickin nightmare.
Speaker 3 (06:19):
It is.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
We've talked about that since May when the schedule release,
when we had this giant schedule release show. Woah, the
schedules anyways, but we've been talking about it since then,
and I agree with you that they've gotten considerably better.
My problem, my problem right now is I'm looking at
the injury report and I'm seeing Andrew Thomas.
Speaker 3 (06:36):
He is very dumb.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
Dumb again. It starts what's going on with this O line.
That is just where I have some fear there, and
that's what keeps you from I don't I actually I'm
with you at like six feels like that's just a
that's an annoying number. Like if it were a different number,
I'd feel differently about it. But I feel like it
could they could keep it closer. I just feel like
I've seen this this playbook before where the Giants have
(06:59):
a good defensive front, but then the O line is
like a big question mark. And uh uh r, is
Milik Neighbor's injury real? Like, is it going to actually ham?
Speaker 3 (07:11):
I'm not finking out.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
I'm just I just don't like when I see an
when I when I've had oline questions and I see
an online questionable to play, that's a big deal. It
just makes me like he.
Speaker 1 (07:21):
Is maybe the most important player on the entire team.
Andrew Thomas, I totally agree with that, and he's coming
back from a really serious injury and we don't know
for sure that he's playing this week. It sounded like
it was trending in the right direction. I'm not totally
afraid of the Commanders, I'm saying, but it's definitely a
little dicey. What I'm counting on is Abdull Carter and
(07:43):
Brian Burns in that pass rush getting.
Speaker 3 (07:45):
After I mean, that's gonna be great the Commanders.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
But they've they've added you know, Laramie Tuntel to the mix,
and they've added a first round pick, so that in uh,
Josh Connery, So that'll be an interesting matchup.
Speaker 3 (07:53):
Let's go to your second pick.
Speaker 2 (07:54):
Okay, I think you and I are on the opposite
sides of this game, but I the son Okay, I
think Buffalo wins.
Speaker 1 (08:02):
Wow, that's one of your three. How did you choose
which of these three to pick?
Speaker 2 (08:07):
I asked someone with really good hair.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
Okay, the guy with the good.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
Hair, the guy with the good hair. I'm like, let's
what I don't Week one, I don't have any you know.
What's weird is like I try to every year, got
to clean the slate. I don't have any preconceived notions
about any teams this year. Try to go in with,
like what do the facts say? Who are they objective?
Speaker 3 (08:24):
Like?
Speaker 2 (08:24):
Because obviously we all have things that we like and
we don't like. We have people we like and we
don't like. So I try to like really just wash
that all away. I do like the Bills. I like
the Ravens too, though, so what I'm here, I'm here
what a.
Speaker 3 (08:36):
Home underdog that the Bills are right now? Underdog?
Speaker 1 (08:40):
Yes, yeah, it's one and a half for the Ravens
right now. It started out as the Bills, is that's right?
Speaker 3 (08:44):
Favorite?
Speaker 2 (08:44):
And now why do I think? Why do I think
the Bills?
Speaker 3 (08:47):
Well?
Speaker 2 (08:48):
One, I really think that the ability to control the ball.
Usually we talk about Baltimore, we're talking about ball control offense. Well,
I'm actually thinking the Bills might take that tact this time.
And Josh Allen himself seven rushing touchdowns in the past
two seasons. That's a lot. That's a lot of them.
And I'm looking I was watching the O line play.
That's one of the only things for preseason that you
(09:08):
can sort of see. I think Osius Torrance might be
even better than he was. I think this O line
is good. I don't know who the offensive pass catchers
that they're really gonna have to you know, this Ravens
defense is gonna have to account for what who are they?
Speaker 3 (09:24):
Friders coming off an injuries. Sounds like he'll play.
Speaker 2 (09:26):
But it sounds like you'll play, But are you?
Speaker 3 (09:28):
Ian Coleman has had a good camp, but east wait.
Speaker 2 (09:30):
And I saw him pop up on the injury report too,
so but maybe some of that. We've seen this before
where Josh Allen are like, I don't know, he's gonna
throw too and then suddenly it's like Josh Allen in
a cloud of dust. But seven points or six.
Speaker 3 (09:43):
Points, We'll see how this goes.
Speaker 1 (09:44):
All I'm saying, Cynthia, is you picked the freaking Super
Bowl with and not only that, the champion with an
Eagles team last year that if people remember going into
the year, was not a popular pick, no whatsoever, not
just to represent the NFC, but to make it far
in the playoffs. So you've done that. You you did great
with your picks a year ago. And you're you're and
(10:05):
you're giving our producer, you're mentioning Chris with the great
hair in the back. Chris has great hair, twenty two
years old. He's rocking the I don't know if.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
Chris has a girlfriend, but if you were going to
get a girlfriend based on Lettuce, Chris would be like
top of the heap.
Speaker 3 (10:17):
Okay, he's got the floppy I appreciate that.
Speaker 1 (10:19):
Yeah, yeah, but he's not like a football expert. At
this point, you are Cynthia and you've got all your
picks and you.
Speaker 3 (10:26):
And you hand it over to him and ask him
what's what he likes that.
Speaker 2 (10:30):
I gave him all the numbers. I gave him all
the numbers, all the number I stand by all.
Speaker 3 (10:34):
I love all of my Okay, in week one, I'll
buy that. I want to.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
We've been we've been thinking about this for so freaking long.
We've had these We've had this week once late and
then oh, Michael Parsons, and then everyone loses their mind
and picks Green Bay to win the Super Bowl, and
was like, all right, let's just let's actually do the
math and relax here, and then everybody hate. Did you
pick the Packers? No?
Speaker 3 (10:56):
Not, I hope so I did not pick God, I
hope you did.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
Uh for the season an or four this week, Let's
just go there now, one of my three favorite picks.
I stayed away from trying to get too into these
Week one Lions. I pretty much looked at him fresh
for the first time recently. I think I had a
vague idea who's playing, but I didn't know the Lions.
Speaker 3 (11:16):
When I saw that.
Speaker 1 (11:18):
The Lions, Your Lions are two and a half point
underdogs to the Green Bay Packers. And then I thought
about the last four years. Hey, who said your whole
era of farv to Rogers is over? You think you're
gonna go win another Super Bowl with Aaron Rodgers? No,
(11:38):
how about we beat you in Week eighteen in a
game that supposedly didn't even matter to us to end
that whole Aaron Rodgers era. How about that we're the
Detroit Lions. How about the one time you beat us,
and I don't know if people remember this the one
time the Packers beat them recently and the Lions have
won six out of seven. The one time they beat
him recently, Matt Lafleur in the post game, he was
(12:00):
on NBC or something.
Speaker 3 (12:01):
I think it was Thanksgiving, he.
Speaker 1 (12:03):
Got all it was, he got all like chesty of like,
hey people, people saying we're not tough enough. You know
that we're not a tough team, Like, we're tough and
we ran the ball. I felt in that moment it
always stuck with me that he was sort of like
his masculinity was threatened by Dan Campbell and he didn't
like that the Lions, or maybe just he felt like
his team's masculinity was threatened by the by the Lions
(12:25):
getting pushed on. Hey we're the tough guys. You know
what's happened since then? They haven't won another game. You know,
they got swept last year too, while the Lions were
all sorts of banged up.
Speaker 3 (12:34):
I love it.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
I just think the Lions are a better team and
they have a real track record here against this Packers team.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
I think recency bias sometimes afflicts people and because I do.
I will say I'm gonna put Jeff Haffley, the defensive
coordinator on the short list of guys who come the
end of the season. Were were like, who's gooting a
new head coach?
Speaker 3 (12:51):
You Joe went to against the Lions, though, to be fair.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
I'm I'm I'm just saying in general, Jeff Haffley, I
think he did. He did a good job of reconfiguring
the defense in a way that I mean. There were
second in simulator pressure, so they're doing some modern things
to help out. They won't have to simulate for pressure
this year. Once Mike is back or his back, it's okay.
Like vertebrae epidurals, these things sound very very scary to me,
but I'm just saying in general, we remember the Lions
(13:14):
also got a lot of their pieces back as well,
one named Aiden Hutchinson. Just a reminder, it's not like
the Lions are going to be playing without the end
of the season, they were playing with like nineteen people
on ir right.
Speaker 1 (13:26):
The Packers got Parsons, but the Lions got Hutchison, and.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
The Lions also got back people that know each other,
have played together. Micah just came in the building and
he rotates in. He's not a down to down player.
So it's just gonna like I think it takes a
hot second for everything to come together. I understand defense easier,
go get ball. I understand the mission statement of Micah
Parson's position, but I think in general it is a
bit more complicated than that for how the whole defense
(13:53):
works together. And they still have corners that are Jaya
Alexander at walking through that door. You know, you and
I as good as we saw Xavier McKinney last year
with all of his turnovers, turnovers aren't necessarily like there's
some luck involved in there, you know, you don't. You
can't say year over a year that just because they
had a lot of a lot of interceptions last year,
they're going to get a lot of interceptions. That's not
(14:14):
how that works. So you know, I'm I'm just saying
to me, it's you have to remember, offense plays the defense.
Offense plays the defense. Like you know that you don't.
It doesn't work like when they say quarterbacks play.
Speaker 1 (14:26):
So I'm like, no, they don't, right well, But then
when you hear quarterbacks talk, they always say like, oh,
when when I'm playing that quarterback. I'm watching him and
I know I got to play better that day, like
Joe Burt Like, so they get it in their own
head that they're going they get it.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
In their head, but they're not like facing that right.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
I think the Lions defense is going to be significantly
better than a year ago. But I'm glad you brought
up like the cornerback position for the Packers. So Nate Hobbs,
he's coming off of an injury, he was their big
free agent, is right right, He's I think going to
play in this game, but he's barely practiced over last month.
Speaker 3 (14:57):
That's what I'm saying.
Speaker 1 (14:58):
Jeehawan Rixon, Like he's okay. I think the other starting
cornerback for this team, like the nickel is Javon Bullard,
Carrington Valentine is still there. It's like it's not a
great group. Whereas I actually like the Lions on defense more.
And that all gets me to the point that I
really want to make about this game because I do
feel strong this.
Speaker 3 (15:16):
Is probably be my number one pick.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
I just think that it's the right time, like they're
getting them at the right time of the season. I
think of all these injuries that this is the week
to play them all the injuries that they they had
no receivers on the field like throughout training camp, and
they all are coming back. I don't think Jayden Reid
necessarily is. And then you know who practices harder than
(15:40):
any team and always comes out really strong early.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
It's the Detroit Lions.
Speaker 1 (15:45):
Like I heard this story from Colton Pouncey, who covers
the athletic about like Tim Patrick, he was in this
first camp with the Lions and he was like, man like, yeah,
they've like Brian branch Is coming out here like hitting like.
I just think they run a tougher camp. I think
they're all and very ready for a Week one we
saw them. Did they beat the Chiefs?
Speaker 3 (16:03):
So that they did? They beat the Chiefs in Week
one like coming off a super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
Remember it was the it was the opener when the
last time anyways.
Speaker 1 (16:09):
Whereas the Packers are not that team that that you
know practice is tackling as much plays in the preseason.
So I also think it's just a perfect time and
the Lions overall are a little healthier.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
I think this game is a huge deal maker, like
everyone's like the Packers went within a vision. The Packers
super Bowl better like the Packers window Ital went up
one whole game to surpass the Lions. It's and on
one person being trained. I'm like, wait, wait, if they
play each other week one, that game matters a lot.
It doesn't, is it really? Anyways? Point being is I
(16:41):
I'm not. I'm you know, as a Lions fan. I
am beholden by you know, everything that is Michigan in
the world. To say like I, I have fear in
my heart, and I have fear, but I think that
this your model, my model has my model says the
Lions win.
Speaker 1 (16:55):
Okay, I love that too, so you agree with me?
All right, let's do one more pick? Yeah, ok your
last one?
Speaker 2 (16:59):
Okay, where are you on Tampa Bay in Atlantic? Because
I have Tampa Bay winning this one?
Speaker 1 (17:04):
That I mean, that is one of many where I
don't have a strong feeling.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
But I did take Tampa Bay I.
Speaker 2 (17:08):
Butt by more than two. Yeah, one and a half.
Speaker 3 (17:11):
I would have them covered. I'm with you on that.
It wouldn't.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
That one just seems like such a crazy matchup that
I'd be afraid. But you're you're going with a lot
of the tough games.
Speaker 2 (17:18):
Well, the reason one of the reasons that this game,
to me, would have probably been on my list even
if I didn't, even if I didn't allow the.
Speaker 3 (17:26):
Best happen out source.
Speaker 1 (17:27):
If this works, then we can think about the strategy
more seriously.
Speaker 3 (17:31):
If it doesn't, he takes the blame. So it worked
that well?
Speaker 2 (17:34):
Well, no, I mean, listen, we put out all our
picks anyways. Yes, but when I'm looking at the bucks
in a week one, to me, it comes down to
who do I trust a quarterback more? And I trust
Baker Mayfield. Now I know Tristan Wurfs isn't there. I wouldn't.
I would prefer him to be there. But and usually
my model loves the strategy of like doubling down in
a position, and they kind of tripled down on pass
(17:55):
rush to draft Jalen They drafted it like fifteen twenty
six whatever. They dropped too. Yes, yeah, so, but it's
weird because my stuff doesn't.
Speaker 3 (18:03):
Love James Pears. Also, they're not listed as starters right now.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
Jalen Walker had a O camp weird, So I think
that's an advantage, especially when you consider on the other
side Caleb McGarry not being there. That's the problem. It's
a big one and Michael Penny. I think still think
Jon's going to have a nice game for your fantasy purposes,
do not worry. But I think that this one belongs
to the quarterback that has the track record and the
defensive mind, meaning the defensive coach meeting Todd Bowles, that
(18:31):
can stop the things they're trying to throw him.
Speaker 1 (18:33):
I'm with you. I think they're going to have a
defensive improvement this year. The Bucks did not have a
great season last year. I think the roster, I think
Todd Bowles it's all going to be better. You almost
want Kirk Cousins in this game. He was so good
again against the Buccaneers a year ago. I mean, he
had like five hundred something yard. So I'm with you
on that. But you're bold, you're taking some of the
ones i'd be most. Let's go my third pick.
Speaker 2 (18:55):
Fortune favors the bold, Greg. I'm going Jaguars go bigger
than that. Who cares about the Jags over the Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 1 (19:01):
Come on, dude, what does that even mean? They're a
bigger every pick, There is no bigger. I feel good
about it. Jaguars minus three and a half is my pick.
You're not gonna bully me every The point is to
get them right. It's not to like pick like games
that the most people are gonna watch.
Speaker 3 (19:17):
Now.
Speaker 1 (19:17):
The only thing that bothers me here is this was
three all week, and when we sat down to do that,
I saw it went to three and a half. But
I don't care. I just think they're a way more
complete team. I think they have way more defensive line
talent and and I think they have ultimately sound way guys,
way more guys than the secondary. Why is that being
(19:39):
a bully. It's the Jacksonville Jaguars. They even won a
lot of games over the last couple of years. But
I do think they're gonna unveil Travis Hunter. And you
just look at the defensive talent overall for the Panthers
and I just don't think it stacks up. When I
looked at these two depth charts, I think there's a
lot of mismatches. The Jaguars are a team I think
is going to be great this year in terms of
(20:00):
versus like their win total for instance, I really like
they're over seven and a half.
Speaker 3 (20:03):
So I'm gonna stay consistent. Go Jaguars. Okay, what does
that even mean?
Speaker 2 (20:08):
Go bigger, like what ones like one where you're like
like it's a little more like like a juicier line.
Like there's a lot of close lines this week, so
like maybe you know, like what's one, what's one that's
in the Just give me one that's.
Speaker 1 (20:19):
A little scribble. Okay, that's a bonus. Okay, we did
our three and three. You might keep track, but some
of the other ones that were interested. I just like
getting points in week one because I think it's so unpredictable.
Speaker 2 (20:30):
Sure, but it's worth the same number of points if
it's game one or two seven.
Speaker 1 (20:34):
I know, but I think in week one it's based
everything is based on faulty information, it is, which is
why I'll just take points right because like to me,
it's unpredictable, but I know what those points are worth.
For instance, the Saints are six and a half point
underdogs and the Browns are five and a half point underdogs,
(20:56):
two of the worst teams in the NFL. They're written
down as my extra picks. I would take them both
at home against teams with some weaknesses. The Browns are
playing the Bengals, yep, and.
Speaker 2 (21:05):
So you think they're gonna win or less than Okay.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
Five and a half for the Browns and then the Saints.
I just feel like that's that's a lot to give
the Cardinals. I feel a little less sure about that,
but I but I do. I'd rather just take it.
It's Week one, it's home. I like those two.
Speaker 2 (21:20):
I'm the Saints. One is tricky. Is a sneaky good
one to me because I think everyone has slept on
Alvin Kamara a lot. This passed up, like when I
was doing some fantasy drafts, he was available to me
in a round that felt ridiculously lowly right or or five?
Why we all sleeping on him so much? Because I'm
just curious if he somehow was not the guy who
(21:43):
you know, was second to Jamiir Gibbs in terms of
number of rushing attempts and past last season. I did
somehow his coach, who pretty pretty sure Kellen knows how
to deal with great running back such you know, Saque
might have a little something to say about but point bing,
you know, like I just don't see where so I'm
with you. And plus I saw them firsthand against the Broncos.
(22:04):
Was there for preseason. Okay, it's preseason, we get it.
But I don't think they're as bad as it seems.
I understand when you don't have a quarterback and you
don't name your starting quarterback until a week before the game,
it seems a little dicey. But I I'm.
Speaker 1 (22:17):
Alan's just a lot of points, a lot of uncertain
It's a I like those two. I like the Jets
giving up three points to the Steelers. I mentioned the Vikings.
I'm on the other side. The one that was the
closest to making my top three was the Dolphins.
Speaker 2 (22:32):
Oh let's talk about this. Yeah, I just I don't
do mess, baby mess. Well, but they're both mess No, no, no,
I don't do mass. Okay, right now, who's playing? Are
we sure?
Speaker 1 (22:45):
Like?
Speaker 2 (22:46):
Is Devon a chano? Okay?
Speaker 3 (22:47):
Messy?
Speaker 2 (22:48):
And remember love me some Mike mctannel. But when it
comes to lying Leer, who lies? He comes from the
tree of lying?
Speaker 3 (22:54):
Who lies?
Speaker 2 (22:55):
Kyle Shannon? So he's right now questionable? Tyreek Hill questionable?
Are they gonna play? Would you feel differently if you
if it was a half Devon a Chan half.
Speaker 1 (23:05):
Daniels indicated he feels good about Tyreek. It sounds pretty
good on a Chan. I do love their pass. Rush
On a fast track against Daniel Jones, and I actually
trust their offensive line over the Colts, where there's some
new players, some uncertainty in general everyone. This is the
Bad Vibes Bowl we talked about on our preview show.
But ultimately I like the way that the Dolphins have
(23:28):
started the last few seasons, and I kind of just
liked them in this spot having a one week, one
week win. So that's it to review our main review
the ones that matter. I have the Giants plus six.
I have your Lions plus four staff, and I have
the Jaguars as a favorite over Carolina. And you went
(23:49):
with the Bills at Home as a home underdog, Bears
at Home as a slight home underdog, and the Bucks
and yeah my extra.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
Pixel Bills, Bear, Bucks, Bills, Bear's Curious.
Speaker 3 (24:03):
I like the Dolphins, Browns, Jets. I'm going colds face.
Speaker 2 (24:07):
Come on, Colts fans, help me out here.
Speaker 3 (24:09):
We are going to be doing this every week. We are.
I can't wait.
Speaker 1 (24:12):
Numbers Game is the Podcast is the YouTube channel for
Cynthia Freeland. Please check her out there her new podcast
with Logan Ryan. Also check out We're doing a live
postgame pod for the Friday night Brazil game. So if
you're listening to this, it's only it's in a few hours.
Come check out, join us live, me and Nick Schuk.
Football is so bad it's back
Host
Gregg Rosenthal
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